Episode 998: Spent forces

Zain 0:02

This is a strategist episode 998. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Guys, I'm

Zain 0:10

I'm in Toronto. It's 11pm at night. But you know what? I'm here for the team. I'm

Zain 0:14

I'm always here for the team. Yeah,

Zain 0:16

I make every sacrifice necessary. I

Zain 0:18

I push off recording. I don't know what I'm doing. I don't know.

Carter 0:21

What were you doing until 11 o'clock at night in Toronto that you couldn't even be checked into your hotel room? I

Carter 0:27

I imagine something scandalous. Can I

Zain 0:28

I tell you something? There's this fucking tech conference here, and there's so many fucking crypto bros everywhere. I can spot them. I can spot them, Carter. Because they

Carter 0:37

they can't afford to get into an Uber? They're

Zain 0:39

They're trying anything they can.

Zain 0:43

like that. They're all taking public transit to the hotel rooms that they booked two months ago for this conference, Carter.

Carter 0:51

trying to stay in groups now. Oh,

Zain 0:53

Oh, my goodness. Six people

Carter 0:54

people to a room.

Zain 0:55

It's two versions of themselves. The ones who booked the hotels three months ago and the versions who showed up to this conference now. I feel like I could sense the dichotomy in their personality and their economic condition on their face, Corey.

Zain 1:11

How have you guys been doing?

Corey 1:13

Good. It was Father's Day, so I did the most dad things possible. I took a nap on the couch, mowed my lawn, watched

Corey 1:20

watched Slow Horses on Apple Plus. That's pretty good. It's

Carter 1:23

It's really good. That

Zain 1:24

a very compelling White Father's Day. Carter, did you also have a very good White Father's Day?

Carter 1:29

I was still in Surrey, because as you know, I was in Surrey when Corey

Zain 1:33

Corey and I did our special show. You did not have a good

Carter 1:34

good White Father's Day.

Zain 1:34

Day. That is a Brown Father's Day, correct.

Carter 1:37

But I'll tell you something. I found some amazing restaurants, so I'm pretty happy overall.

Corey 1:41

I can't believe you found boiled cabbage in Surrey, BC.

Carter 1:45

Listen, there's some great food in Surrey, BC. I'm eating it all. I'm going to be 10 pounds heavier by the end of this campaign uh

Zain 1:52

uh can i just say that uh i've heard a lot of feedback about your episode that you did without me uh and the people have spoken cory um i'm needed on the show that that is what that is the overwhelming feedback that we're getting uh

Zain 2:06

uh but that was cory and i

Carter 2:07

i both calling you and saying we need you back yeah i can't do another show just with this asshole we need

Carter 2:13

to enter you know be in the middle i

Zain 2:15

i feel like you covered a lot of terrain let's move it on to our first segment we've got a lot to talk about our first segment not all press is good press Stephen Carter I want to talk about are we talking about

Carter 2:26

about me I want

Zain 2:28

want to talk about a deep dive into your life your professional life

Zain 2:33

no Carter I want to talk about Michelle Rempel because here's what I'll say

Zain 2:39

two weeks ago this was interesting

Zain 2:41

a week ago it was compelling it's

Zain 2:44

it's now kind of starting to get boring

Zain 2:47

all the Michelle Rempel, will she, won't be pressed. And I want to kind of take a quasi deep dive. We'll see how long this goes. But Carter, let's even escape the specifics for a second about Michelle Rempel's condition in terms of how she might enter this race, should she?

Zain 3:00

I want to kind of maybe stress test the notion that

Zain 3:04

that there is an end point. There is a certain sense of dissipation

Zain 3:10

dissipation with someone anticipating to jump into a race. Well,

Corey 3:16

Well, before we get there, I mean, for the benefit of anybody who's not knee

Corey 3:20

knee deep in the Alberta UCP leadership race, this is for, you

Corey 3:24

you know, to run to be premier of Alberta, effectively, to run for the UCP leadership. Current Oklahoma

Corey 3:29

Oklahoma MP Michelle Garner-Rample is planning to potentially jump into the provincial race.

Zain 3:40

is right. And Carter, I wanted you to get your take first on this, which is, talk to me about this. Is this strategic right now? All the stories that we're seeing going on to perhaps week two and a half? Or is this starting to get boring? And what's the strategy at play here? And how would you have done it if Michelle Rempel's an eventual running

Zain 3:58

running in the race for her? So I know I've asked you three questions. Give me your analysis first, and then we'll get into strategy.

Carter 4:05

think that when she last Thursday, I think, was when the speculation really hit the crescendo.

Carter 4:11

And my thinking was she had about seven days on her ticking clock.

Carter 4:14

Tomorrow would be an absolutely fine day to launch. Wednesday would be good to launch. Thursday would starting to be pushing it.

Carter 4:22

But overall, I think that she she's probably going to be in this race. She certainly is indicating that she is. But perhaps the wrinkle that's keeping her out of it is whether or not she actually has the right membership requirements.

Carter 4:34

requirements. Has she been member long

Carter 4:37

long enough of the UCP to

Carter 4:39

to to actually run for the leadership, which

Carter 4:42

which would be kind of a staggering blow if

Carter 4:45

if she she needed to get a special dispensation from

Carter 4:47

from the UCP board to

Carter 4:49

to actually run in the race. So we'll see. Sorry, my house is on fire.

Zain 4:54

Are you are you finally being arrested? Is that is that Flair Airlines finally sending the authorities after us? Yeah,

Carter 4:59

Yeah, no, it's it's my house is on fire. It's not a big thing. I'm sure things will work its way out.

Zain 5:05

I'm great, Carter. I'm glad your commitment is to the pod, first and foremost. Corey, talk to me about this. Let's we'll talk about the specifics. Michelle Rempelgarner, as you've mentioned, her

Zain 5:14

her bid or potential bid to replace Jason Kenney as the leader of the UCP and in turn becoming the

Zain 5:20

the next premier. But Corey, talk

Zain 5:22

talk to me about the strategy of the drip campaign, of the anticipation campaign.

Zain 5:27

When does it go too long? When does it not meet the crescendo moment? She put out a tweet thread that said, I'm interested. And then there was anticipation, but there's been no launch yet. Give

Zain 5:38

Give me your take on this.

Corey 5:39

Okay, well, I think

Corey 5:41

think in some ways you might be looking at it backwards. You're assuming, why would you do that and then not launch? And what's the point of that and how ridiculous? But maybe look at it from a different point of view.

Corey 5:51

Maybe look at it from the one that Stephen Carter just teased out there where there's some speculation that she,

Corey 5:57

she, well, she'll need a waiver because she doesn't have a UCP membership for at least six months.

Corey 6:03

if that's the case, and as everybody is entering the race and people are starting to firm up, you need to find a way to signal that you're interested in the race too, without

Corey 6:12

without going so far as to say you're in the race in case for whatever reason you don't hit those membership requirements. So, in some ways, this was her placeholder. This was her save the date for my leadership campaign while I work out some of these nuts and bolts along the way. I think there's been some reporting that the UCP caucus is going to meet on this

Corey 6:29

this residency requirement tomorrow. I have no idea if that's true. I don't know why I'm repeating it. I just saw it on Twitter. but

Corey 6:35

if that's the case if

Corey 6:37

if you're her do you really want two

Corey 6:39

two weeks to pass from the sonny campaign launch and uh the gene campaign launch and taves has launched even a week before that and all of those people being in the race and

Corey 6:50

and you're not yet and you're not even mentioned yet because you're waiting to figure out that residency requirement by the time you're actually able to announce even if everybody plays ball and lets you announce people

Corey 7:00

people have picked sides It's too late. You know, they picked their dance partner because they think this is the field. And

Corey 7:06

And so this was her way of signaling that's what the field was while she worked through these issues. And I don't I

Corey 7:12

it was last Thursday. Talk about hyper intense news cycles. If we're thinking by Monday, God, you haven't announced yet. You said you're thinking about it like three

Corey 7:21

three days ago. go. But in fairness, Corey, the

Zain 7:24

the Monday was her first action. The trip campaign of surrogates and other proxies and that momentum building started much, it was clearly engineered much before that. And that's what I'm talking about, right? Because there was the pre-chapter before the, let me put out my initial sort of tweet thread around consideration.

Corey 7:41

Yeah. So for sure. And actually, I think one of the more damning things, and I almost allowed myself to get distracted by it is, it's

Corey 7:46

it's not like nobody knew when the date of Jason Kenney's leadership review was it's not like anybody knew there might not

Corey 7:53

not didn't know there wouldn't be a leadership contest this year potentially yeah

Corey 7:56

why in the world did she not buy a membership when

Corey 7:59

when the calendar year flipped over why wasn't she keeping that current if she harbored even a modest amount of interest in the job you

Corey 8:05

you have to know there's going to be a membership requirement that's like every party that's like every leadership it seems unfathomable to me that

Corey 8:13

that she wouldn't have at least if

Corey 8:15

if this is something that even remotely interested her and of course it does, as we know, why would you not maintain your membership in the party? How fucking crazy is that?

Zain 8:24

Carter, let's talk about the specifics here, because Michelle Rempel-Garner had a choice here, whether it was to spend that $15 on a UCP membership or season tickets to the Oklahoma City Thunder. And

Zain 8:32

And I think she chose the latter, Carter. I think it's safe to say she chose the latter. No Westbrook, no Harden, Carter,

Zain 8:39

Carter, no Durant. Everybody

Carter 8:41

Everybody knows both of those choices are a a real waste of money um so i i i'm i'm shocked uh at the choices she's making i

Carter 8:50

i think she makes i

Carter 8:53

maybe she thought that i i'm intrigued because you know she is very involved in in uh patrick brown's leadership campaign for the cpc which

Zain 9:01

clear she's now stepped back from as she's kind of announced his consideration of the ucp leadership right

Carter 9:06

right but i think that you know three months ago she thought everything was going to come out differently she

Carter 9:11

she thought that you know her primary focus would be on

Carter 9:14

on getting Patrick Brown or someone else elected as the leader.

Carter 9:18

It was very clear that she was standing against Pierre

Carter 9:20

Pierre Polyev. I'm actually interested about all kinds of different things, which is what is this signaling about what's happening in the Conservative Party of Canada?

Carter 9:29

What's happening in the federal party? We've seen all

Carter 9:32

all of this ties together. This isn't just a decision where she's trying to think,

Carter 9:37

should I or shouldn't I? Let's keep in mind that when Jason Kenney decided to come and rescue

Carter 9:43

he too was facing a potential leadership opportunity, and

Carter 9:47

and he chose to run away from that opportunity because I believe he was polling at

Carter 9:50

less than 1% in

Carter 9:52

in the actual favorabilities.

Carter 9:54

favorabilities. People did not like him, and they did not want him. It just took those of us in Alberta a few more years to realize that.

Zain 10:02

Corey, let's get your take on this, because from the perspective of the point you just brought up. Why did she not have a leadership?

Zain 10:11

There's probably that element of just a negligence.

Zain 10:15

But then there's also the party side of it in terms of what they debate, what they should do. So give me your take on the fact that she doesn't have it. How big of a blemish is this? And then let's start getting into the strategy discussion for the party. What's best for them? What should our opponents say or not say? What would you be doing right now if you're Michelle Rumpelgarner? Anything different than what she's done right now, which is telegraphing that, that, hey, listen, I don't have this membership and you guys need to figure it out for me.

Corey 10:39

Well, I think that when you're a sitting conservative MP, nobody's going to give you too hard a time about not having a current membership, as long as it's like you

Corey 10:48

you have in the past. Maybe it's lapsed for a bit. Maybe you bought it three months ago, but

Corey 10:53

but you didn't buy it six months ago. I don't think that's a huge deal. It does seem like a bit of an omission, like I said, if this is something that interests you. But, you know, party memberships are funny, too. Some run on a 12-month cycle. summer calendar year maybe

Corey 11:06

maybe she just lost track of it all maybe it doesn't matter at all i

Corey 11:09

i don't think it's going to hold her back i don't think people are going to say wow what a foolish leadership contest or contestant but um you

Corey 11:18

you know it does sort of speak to an overall what's the strategy and preparedness here and it makes you wonder what

Corey 11:24

what does this launch look like so let's just say yeah my theory was correct and she's just looking to rag

Corey 11:31

rag the puck a bit um keep it interesting keep herself in the conversation until she's able to announce uh when she goes and announces what

Corey 11:39

what does that launch look like at this point is it is it going to be the same as we've seen with everybody else which is just the kind of the perfunctory 150 people in a room or at a media event where she's going to try to do something different i

Corey 11:52

i think one of the challenges with the approach that she's taken and

Corey 11:56

and maybe this gets back to your original point standpoint of it, like, isn't this enough? For me, it's not so much it's boring. It's that when

Corey 12:03

when you build that crescendo, you've

Corey 12:05

you've got to have something at the end of it,

Corey 12:07

right? So if you're doing drum roll, please, drum roll, please, I'm going to run, I'm going to run, I'm going to run.

Corey 12:13

And then at the end, it's just this underwhelming, like, oh, actually, I decided to run. My tweet thread was the launch.

Corey 12:20

That's kind of lame. I

Zain 12:21

I think you've summarized it perfectly, Corey. that's exactly what i was trying to say which is like anticipation anticipation is she setting herself up for failure in a sense right like is she setting herself up unless she like has a big swing or a big hit does

Zain 12:35

does that launch automatically raise the bar on herself carter of course it well i

Corey 12:40

i want to hop in

Corey 12:41

in first because of course it

Corey 12:42

does because she's saying i'm going to think about it it's really important i'm going to go through all of this so now the answer has to to include that

Corey 12:49

that journey. She's boxed herself in, in that she said, I'm

Corey 12:54

I'm interested, but I've got to get through some things here. And now those things are going to be in part what that launch is about, instead of what the launch should be about, which is your message and how you're going to carry yourself forward.

Zain 13:04

forward. Right. So Corey, you're saying that the process of her getting to the launch will be as much part of it as her message that she wants to put out there. Carter, I think you were going in with perhaps a slightly different take.

Carter 13:13

I don't know. I was talking with some people who are suggesting that if Michelle Rempel chose to come in, it would fundamentally change the complexion of the race. You know, this race that we see is kind of bundling up at a big roll up where, you know, Taves is going to be left at the front of the race without anybody to roll up into him.

Carter 13:31

There seems to be this sense that if Michelle came in, she

Carter 13:34

she would be not necessarily the leader on the first ballot, but she'd certainly be in a position where she could roll up an awful lot of votes. And maybe, in fact, even if she's not number

Carter 13:43

number one heading into the first ballot or

Carter 13:45

or number one heading into the instant runoff, she

Carter 13:48

she would be someone who is seen as the most likely to accumulate votes, the highest profile member, the

Carter 13:56

the highest profile potential leadership candidate and the one who will be able to roll up votes. So for

Carter 14:02

for me, you know, it changed my thinking about her launch because um then

Carter 14:08

then then it's really about creating enough demand right so if

Carter 14:12

you're being pulled into the race if you're being pulled into the race it's different than pushing yourself into the race so

Carter 14:18

so sonny has pushed herself into the race taves has pushed himself into the race brian

Carter 14:21

brian jean and danielle smith probably were the ones who pushed

Carter 14:24

pushed themselves into the race the hardest and

Zain 14:27

you've got earliest arguably right

Carter 14:28

right yeah and those two are related and now Now you've got Michelle Rempel saying, I'm

Carter 14:34

I'm not sure. I'm not sure. Maybe that's an opportunity for people to be pulling her into the race. Maybe she's using this and she's a savvy political operator. Maybe she's using this to ensure her money is going to be lined up, to make sure that she's got her volunteers in place, to

Carter 14:48

to make sure that the demand side for

Carter 14:51

for her entry into the race is strong enough so

Carter 14:53

so that when she does her launch, it's not 150 people in

Carter 14:57

in her home riding. it's

Carter 14:58

it's actually a big launch it's actually something it's going to have some staying

Zain 15:03

are you buying that like are you buying that what she's trying to do is set up a like i'm the candidate that they wanted to draft and then they got me they finally got me you know they they convinced me they showed me the money they showed me the energy yes i'll be your savior sort of thing do you feel like that's

Zain 15:20

that's the game she's playing here and if so are you buying how she's selling it? Well, I'm

Corey 15:27

that skeptical of it. It's very possible. I mean, it's one of the oldest leadership cliches, you know, ask me once, ask me twice, ask me thrice. Okay, you twisted my arm. I

Corey 15:36

I guess I must do it. The people demand it, right?

Corey 15:39

I mean, this goes back to the times of the Romans, and I'm sure earlier, this notion that you get forced into leadership. It's why, you know, when a new speaker is elected, you kind of faux drag them to the the front all of this bullshit um i

Corey 15:53

i just don't know that that's a very effective strategy in 2022 right

Corey 15:57

right i know i just don't know that people are sitting there really

Corey 16:02

really in doubt as to people's intentions when every thought we have is on twitter and we've got analysis on analysis and spin on spin and everybody's been talking about the possibility of a michelle rample campaign since well

Corey 16:15

well like since the last leadership you know she's always been on these lists of people and so So, you

Corey 16:20

know, maybe, maybe not.

Corey 16:24

It just, to me, it

Corey 16:25

it speaks to, well, I don't know. Let's put it this way.

Corey 16:30

Do we really think you

Corey 16:32

need two things for this to happen and you can create them both? Like they're not things that you just have to sort of accept you have or not, but you have to have a

Corey 16:39

a high enough public stature that people say, oh, thank God, Michelle Rempel or Garner Rempel is in the race, right? Right. And then you need also this notion that if you're pulling to service and you're there to save them, you know, like this, this like I'm willing to do it for the greater good of the province or the party or whatever it is there. And

Corey 17:00

And there's a sense that there's no savior, if not this person.

Corey 17:03

I don't know that either condition is available.

Corey 17:06

There are so many people in this race already. It's a very crowded field. I feel like the strategy of needing to be asked is more when you think that there's a field of midgets, and

Corey 17:16

and you want to bring in a giant.

Corey 17:22

Daniel Smith has strong name recognition, Brian Jean strong name recognition, Travis Taves, huge caucus support. And they didn't wait to see if Michelle was going to enter the race. They didn't. so like i'm just not i'm not feeling it i guess i i which is not to say i don't even doubt her odds to be a good candidate i think steven's right she could be everybody's second choice and that could very easily put her into the premier's seat i just don't know if this is an optimal launch strategy carter

Zain 17:50

carter i have to ask you on almost a strategist

Zain 17:53

strategist level personal level maybe preference

Zain 17:57

what type of candidate do you like to

Zain 17:59

to work with is it the one who's like Like, Carter,

Zain 18:01

Carter, I've got a big enough ego to be like, and I know many, much of this is strategizing, right? But is it the kind of, I got a big enough ego, I can fucking do this. Like, let's go. Like, I need you to help me do it. Or do you like the more exploratory, arguably, perhaps the more humble sort of, do you think I could do this? You know, should we put on an exploratory committee? Like, what's your, what's your vibe and what's your, like, and why? Because I think there's something, there's insight here in terms of what I think your answer is going to be. so so let me open that bracket for a second and get your insight on this before we kind of move on to the specifics of the ucp and what they should do with ramples candidacy i

Carter 18:36

i don't want the the candidate that's worried it's

Carter 18:39

it's looking over their shoulder you know like oh

Carter 18:41

oh i don't know maybe someone better is going to come along i

Carter 18:44

i want the candidate that says i am the one who will save this party from themselves i

Carter 18:49

i am the only one that can actually take this to the next level level and

Carter 18:53

and that person is interesting that

Carter 18:56

person is the one that um but

Zain 18:59

but carter so often

Zain 18:59

often we criticize that person on this show and others

Carter 19:04

downplay that will downplay that in the media will downplay that in public but

Zain 19:09

but i want people

Carter 19:09

people to come in and say man

Carter 19:11

man i've looked at the field there

Carter 19:13

there is no one in this field that deserves to lead the province i am going to have to do this i

Carter 19:18

i want that level level of confidence right

Carter 19:21

right and when you don't have it it's such a burden right

Carter 19:24

right because you're you're now you're talking the person into it all the time like

Zain 19:28

like you're hype man you're hype manning all the time i suspect you've

Carter 19:31

you've got this you're gonna go in it's gonna be fine you're gonna be fine in the debate your speech is gonna be great you're doing a really good job and then you can never give criticism you can never give a critique right

Carter 19:41

right because oh my god you know the the the the the facade falls off and everything is crap. And now you've got to build them back up again. Give

Carter 19:51

Give me a strong ego that I can play with. And then my ego meets their ego. We have a fight. Everything works out. My

Corey 19:59

Corey, is your preference

Corey 20:02

Well, so that's a great point because I've also had to work with candidates who have had that uncertainty to it and that like, how did I do? How do you think I did? How do you think I did? And that's, it

Corey 20:12

it is very tough to manage those candidates because to do what you need to do, you need to break them. And if you break them, you're not doing your job either. And so you do need a certain amount of ego and ability to, I mean, it's a very tough business. this.

Corey 20:25

It's interesting as we're talking

Corey 20:28

a general trait that I think leaders should have is that they should act sure, but be uncertain. So, you know, have confidence in these matters, but really

Corey 20:35

really think about, is this the right course of action? Am I actually doing the right thing? Should I proceed this way? Or should I second guess that based on some new data that's come in

Corey 20:45

with many leadership candidates, they act uncertain, but they're sure, you know, they, they're like, I don't know. I don't know if we're going to, I'm going to do it or not. They know. They fucking know all

Zain 20:56

It's a little bit of a dance. Corey, I want to go back to the question about the UCP. What should they do here?

Zain 21:00

What's best for them? What's the strategy for them? Should they just, whenever they're meeting, right, allegedly, should

Zain 21:06

just be like, fuck it, let's let her in? It's a candidate that adds vibrance. Is it just as open and shut as that? Or is there more wrinkles to it in your mind in terms of how they should process this? I

Corey 21:16

at the end of the day, I would be floored if they didn't let her in because Because it would just be such a horrible look and it would it would look like an overly managed leadership contest. She is a conservative MP. It's

Corey 21:26

It's not as though people are thinking she might be a closet socialist or something like that.

Corey 21:31

So you got to do it. Now, do you give her a bit of a rocky ride along the way and say, well, why didn't you buy a membership? Maybe you even have people planting doubt, like maybe

Corey 21:41

maybe she was waiting for a resurgent wild rose if she couldn't be part of this party or just wanted to see where it landed

Corey 21:46

landed and wasn't actually united to or committed to a united party.

Corey 21:50

The party itself shouldn't say that. Maybe operatives of one of the campaigns would whisper that. You're going to have to let her in.

Corey 21:56

For sure, you've got to let her in.

Corey 21:58

Carter, you've got to let her in? Open

Carter 21:59

case? Oh, for sure.

Carter 22:00

mean, imagine the messaging if you don't,

Carter 22:05

You know, no one else can beat Michelle Rempel. Like, you let her in, and if she wins, great. And if she loses, then, you

Carter 22:10

you know, she should have been a member. That's what the people were looking for.

Carter 22:14

This is, it's lunacy for them not to let her in.

Zain 22:17

Carter, you're a strategist on the TAFEs campaign. Let's use that as an example.

Zain 22:21

Your strategist on any of these campuses, are you saying anything? What are you back channeling? And what are you, if

Zain 22:25

if anything, getting your candidate to say about a potential Rumpel candidacy?

Carter 22:30

I mean, we're focused on the people who are in the race. I mean, realistically at this stage, you are selling memberships and you are going around to groups of 15 and 20. There really isn't much of a media campaign.

Carter 22:41

So don't create a media campaign where

Carter 22:43

where you're uttering someone else's name first. first.

Carter 22:47

You know, the names that you're supposed to be uttering are your own.

Carter 22:51

So do that and then don't worry too much about the rest.

Zain 22:54

And Corey, should Mayor Bill Rock endorse Michelle Rempelkamp? I'm not. Corey, question here, though. Is there anything that you can do? And this I find interesting, you know, with some of these long lead campaigns in the sense of eventually trying to get in there.

Zain 23:09

Is there anything a competing campaign can do?

Zain 23:16

to try to prevent someone who's going to be in from being in? Like, is there anything that you've seen in the past, you've witnessed, or is it just wasted energy to

Zain 23:26

to try to derail an

Zain 23:28

an entrant or a potential entrant? And that's what I'm kind of thinking right now. If Carter's analysis is correct, that the UCP and others feel

Zain 23:34

feel like this is a big deal, should she enter,

Zain 23:37

is there any value putting energy into derailing her eventual entry

Zain 23:41

entry into the race, Corey? Well,

Corey 23:43

Well, it depends on what

Corey 23:44

what your analysis tells you, right? If they are legitimately on the fence and you can sort of pick at the thing that puts them on the fence, then okay. The best

Corey 23:54

best one is the war not fought, right? Where you can just get your competitor off the field before the thing even begins.

Corey 24:00

And we see that all of the time. time. Some people also are not that, that serious about it. They just like to be courted. They like to be asked. Think about Bernard Lord.

Corey 24:09

Think about Frank McKenna, something about those New Brunswick folk, right? They

Corey 24:12

They just, they love to be courted for the big jobs. They never actually take them there.

Corey 24:16

So say for example, Michelle Rample is thinking, I want to do it, but I'm just not sure I can sell the memberships. Well, if you get some party luminaries that she trusts to call and say, Michelle, I don't think you can sell the memberships that may have an effect. So I wouldn't say it's pointless. I wouldn't say it's useless. I would say that depends on it actually being a legitimate review of options. And I am just too much of a cynic to believe by the time you put out the tweet storm that you're not at least thinking about it.

Corey 24:44

she did put out some tweets about the Conservative Party leadership, you may recall, many, many, many years ago, and didn't ultimately go for that.

Corey 24:55

Carter? She wound up going

Carter 24:56

going for the interim, didn't she?

Carter 25:03

and get her to step out, but it's too late after she does her tweet.

Carter 25:08

It actually happens way in advance of that.

Carter 25:13

entrants coming into the race right now, and

Carter 25:16

and the time to get rid of them was two

Carter 25:20

It's all rumor and it's all innuendo. Now, you don't have two months ago in the UCP race.

Carter 25:25

It's just happening too fast.

Carter 25:29

off the bat, if you're running,

Carter 25:32

you should be making the phone calls to the conservative MPs anyways and

Carter 25:37

and asking them for their support.

Carter 25:39

And when one of them says, I don't know, I may even consider running, you better make sure that she's not running if you want her out of your game.

Carter 25:47

None of them did that. None of them were able to keep her out. So I suspect we're going to see Michelle Rempel launch. I think it's not necessarily a bad thing.

Carter 25:57

you know, it might even play into Raj and Sonny or it might play into someone else's hand that instead

Carter 26:02

instead of all of these memberships going straight to Taves, now

Carter 26:05

now there's some question as to whether some of them might go to Michelle Rempel, who might be more friendly to your cause. So all

Carter 26:13

all of this is a game of building alliances and building, you

Carter 26:17

you know, like even if someone's in, they are most likely to be your friend more

Carter 26:21

more than they are to be your adversary in

Carter 26:23

in this type of instant

Carter 26:25

instant runoff. So no

Carter 26:28

no one should be worrying too, too much about Michelle Rempel coming in.

Zain 26:32

We're going to leave that segment there, move it on to our next segment, our next segment, Uptown Funk. Carter, Corey, the

Zain 26:39

the Liberals seem like they're in a bit of a funk. articles published about the demise of Justin Trudeau, Scotiabank saying that he's doing nothing about the inflation crisis, multiple ministers not looking like they're on the top of their game, Al-Ghabra in transport, Mandacino, of course, on the Emergencies Act, even Freeland getting quite a bit of criticism for her non-answers and lack of preparedness in committee. And then, of course, Melanie Jolie and the bureaucrat within her department that attended a party with the russian embassy you know carter this is less about the facts of what's happening with the liberal government but more about the narrative in a sense and we see these every now and then right like you know in some days like as cory and i would would speak to in basketball terms like the the the basket seems like it's as big as the ocean you can't miss in other days in other months and other stretches carter you're like in this slump where you just can't make a shot and the media picks up on it. And there's a kind of a stench to what you're up to. There's almost even quasi-pression pieces right now out saying that this is going to be a summer of dismay for the liberals. I want to kind of get your insider's take on this, which is, this is a little bit fact, but a lot of bit story, Carter, in a sense. And how do we kind of get to these places where it just seems to coalesce, where you kind of look at, is there's this malaise or funk or sort of stink on the brand. Talk to me about this. Am I making this up in my head or is this kind of real? And do we witness this cyclically across whatever brand, color, whatever party in all orders of government?

Carter 28:15

Very real. I mean, Chantelle Hébert was just writing that the liberals couldn't win again under Justin Trudeau's leadership.

Zain 28:22

leadership. That's the piece I was referring to. That's right, yeah.

Carter 28:24

These are all over the place. And are they true? No, they're not true. Are they false? No, they're not false. What they are is a reflection of two

Carter 28:35

two and a half years of going through COVID, the

Carter 28:37

the end of a session coming, everybody seeing the finish line, everybody wanting to go home,

Carter 28:42

a war in Ukraine that no one anticipated, problems

Carter 28:46

problems on top of problems, and everybody's just fucking exhausted, and

Carter 28:50

and mistakes get made. So

Carter 28:52

they're being made now. We're seeing them now. The session ends on Wednesday. They can finally go home.

Carter 29:00

They just need time to regroup, rethink. But you don't get time to regroup and rethink when

Carter 29:06

when you're in the midst of session. session. The opposition's got the pressure on you. The circumstances have the pressure on you.

Carter 29:13

And so you're flailing a little bit. This is government. And on top of that, you're in your third term.

Carter 29:20

And third terms, generally speaking, don't result in fourth terms.

Carter 29:26

of one of the truisms of Canadian politics. You don't win your fourth election,

Carter 29:32

which is one of the reasons it was kind of like, you

Carter 29:35

you know, when you're looking at that early election call from the last

Carter 29:38

last time when Trudeau called it, you

Carter 29:41

you really needed that majority because you needed that ability to go the full four years or you've really wasted it, which maybe

Carter 29:48

maybe was one of the reasons why they put so much pressure on

Carter 29:51

on creating a deal with the NDP.

Carter 29:54

But I think this is just malaise. I think they're tired. I think they want to go home. them. This isn't a series

Carter 30:01

series of structural failures where suddenly

Carter 30:04

suddenly the good people that were there two years ago are

Carter 30:07

are suddenly bad people. I think that the

Carter 30:10

the good people that were there two years ago are now tired people and

Carter 30:13

and we're seeing more mistakes being made as

Carter 30:15

as those tired people are

Carter 30:17

are looking at the end of a session, a very normal circumstance.

Zain 30:22

You know, Corey, what I find interesting about this is kind of like the triangulation of the narrative. It's like like coming from all different angles, from unsuspecting voices, from certainly the post media voices. And it's almost like, okay, are we highlighting these mistakes now to make the point that these people want to make? Or were these mistakes always happening and we just never cared about them or we never really had them bubble up to the surface? I'm just kind of curious your take on like this general sort of cyclical malaise that we might see. And do you agree if the liberals are in a funk? And then we'll talk about the strategy related to what you do when when you're inside a party and you're in one of these moments?

Corey 30:58

to Carter's point, I think if you were to run a news search for articles of this nature, you'd find that there's a big surge of them at this time of year.

Corey 31:08

Parliaments get tired. It happens in legislatures. It happens in the House of Commons.

Corey 31:12

There's a certain exhaustion that sets in. People just want to go home. And the

Corey 31:16

the day-to-day job in the public service, you just stack on session on top of that you know business has to continue as well uh

Corey 31:24

uh and you just can't wait for the politicians to get out of town at a certain point right and they can't wait to get out of town and people start losing their minds and you you know you get to this place where the house leaders stop trying to torture each other and both are just like let's get out of here right or all of them yeah yeah like let's just find a way to leave uh because it becomes just too ruthlessly brutal for all parties involved and then they'll do things like let's just run through the night let's be done with it We're out of here tomorrow. Huh? Yeah. Yeah. And I'm in you in. And we're sort of at that point. It's a point where.

Corey 31:59

The media sniffs malaise because you got to keep in mind the media is in that bubble, too, and is dragged in there. But

Corey 32:05

But also they can see the fatigue and the frustration on these ministers heads. Prep

Corey 32:10

Prep does fall. Freelance prep, no doubt, has fallen because we're

Corey 32:14

we're all human and we all need breaks at a certain time. And it's just before the break. So this is when I

Corey 32:20

I think reasonably you'd expect people to be at their worst. Now that all

Corey 32:25

governments do die of old age, right?

Corey 32:27

It's just something that happens. The shine comes off. The old tricks don't work very much. You've done all of the things you were excited to do. There are other things to do in the world, but it's

Corey 32:38

it's tough to do that within your own brand. And it's so difficult for any organization or person to reinvent themselves.

Corey 32:43

That's certainly true of a prime minister as well.

Corey 32:46

And so, you know, they, they will often take on these third term, uh,

Corey 32:50

uh, projects where, which are both like more ambitious, but less relevant a lot of the time. And, um, and

Corey 32:56

and that itself is not a ticket to popularity. So I

Corey 33:00

I think you can reasonably say all of this is correct. It is correct that this is just a sign of the period, you know, of the year that we're in, but it's also a

Corey 33:09

a sign of the larger cycle that we're in. And the two are just aligning at this moment. right but

Corey 33:14

but i i mean one of the reasons we talk so much about the cpc leadership race and say hey don't write off pierre poliev as much as he seems outside the mainstream is governments

Corey 33:23

governments die of old age and at a certain point people just say well what else you got you

Corey 33:27

you know i've i've tried barbecue sauce i'd like to just smear some shit on my steak for just

Corey 33:31

just a day uh

Zain 33:33

uh that's carter's weekend uh carter you're going to jump in on with something but

Zain 33:38

but yeah we you

Carter 33:40

you know we mentioned this idea that that maybe Chris Jefferland isn't getting the briefings. There's also a point where she says, I got this. I don't need a fucking briefing, right? I've, I've faced the same questions in the house of commons, uh, for the last X number of weeks. And, uh, you know, they haven't changed. They're not going to change.

Carter 33:58

I've got this. And suddenly something shifts. Um,

Carter 34:00

Um, and the answer is not as crisp.

Carter 34:03

Um, you know, it's, maybe it's the exact same answer to a modestly different question. All of these things start to, to just weigh down on you.

Carter 34:12

i've seen it tons

Carter 34:14

tons of times it is super hard to stay focused this long uh

Carter 34:18

with this type of group of people in

Carter 34:20

in an adversarial relationship and that's one of the things i was saying earlier

Carter 34:23

earlier you know about politics at politics is adversarial it's

Carter 34:27

it's hard to fight all the time you

Carter 34:29

you know i i've even found it difficult to fight with the curse of politics all the time and

Carter 34:33

and uh you know you

Zain 34:36

can't carter carter you are you are needlessly getting us into shit my friend you are needlessly getting us into shit no

Carter 34:44

need to do it it's not needless at all it's uh very important carter

Zain 34:49

carter here's you know i'll start with cory on this do

Zain 34:52

do you write it out or do you push back against it so

Zain 34:55

so let's say you're you're both of your analysis is correct right i combine what what each of you said around Corey

Zain 35:00

Corey you know making the point about old age Carter both of you making point about being tired okay ride

Zain 35:06

ride it out or

Zain 35:08

or do you push back against it from

Zain 35:10

from a strategy perspective what's the choice Corey I

Zain 35:13

gotta know when the curtain call is coming and

Corey 35:15

and I'm not saying it's there for Justin Trudeau but at a certain point that the optimal move for everybody involved is to say that's

Corey 35:23

that's a wrap you know my time is done now let's see what else can happen because that means as a leader you get to leave as a victor you've won all of these elections and as a party that means you get to reinvent yourself and find that energy and that you

Corey 35:35

you know recreation is available to you let's

Corey 35:37

let's be realistic parties

Corey 35:39

parties try this doesn't

Corey 35:40

doesn't often work because this fact is it's still the same party right you know crescendo martin was not a seamless transition and

Corey 35:47

and people did see it as a continuation it's tough to break from the past but it's not impossible and

Corey 35:52

and um i think that that So that's the strategic answer. Human vanity gets in the way, though. The idea that, well,

Corey 36:00

well, I could be the guy who gets four in a row.

Corey 36:02

There's not very many who get four in a row. It's like me and Mackenzie King. You know, that's pretty cool.

Corey 36:08

so, you know, you start to, your eyes are bigger than your stomach. Pick your metaphor here. But you go one longer than you should. You stay at the roulette table a little too long.

Corey 36:17

And I think that's more likely because of human nature.

Zain 36:20

Carter, so this brings up a strategic question for me. Well, two of them. let

Zain 36:24

me start with the first one uh

Zain 36:25

uh and this is more speculative than it is strategic but you know we do all of it on the show carter do you think conversations are happening right now with team trudeau and the prime minister himself where they're interpreting some of the stuff that they're seeing and and to cory's point saying guys

Zain 36:41

guys should we consider about like not packing it up right now not this summer but like hey is this our final chapter and if it is are we writing it differently versus what we've been doing right now which has perhaps just been straight up momentum carrying

Zain 36:53

carrying us from 2015. Do you feel like those conversations are happening right now?

Carter 36:57

If they haven't been happening, perhaps they should be happening. It is very difficult to have these types of conversations. But even

Carter 37:05

even before they called the last election, they should have had a conversation that says, you

Carter 37:10

you know, very few people make it to three, very

Carter 37:13

very past three, right?

Carter 37:15

right? Three seems to be the lucky number. So how are we going to leave this? Are

Carter 37:18

Are you going to go for four? Because if you're going to go for four, it requires this type of government. It requires, you

Carter 37:24

you know, being combative. And maybe they're looking at it and saying, you know, it's going to be Pierre Polyev. The

Carter 37:28

The best person to be Pierre Polyev is going to be Justin

Carter 37:33

That's a reasonable calculation, but

Carter 37:35

but it's also very, it's very easily the wrong calculation.

Carter 37:41

I'm sure that the conversations are being held, but I'm sure they're not being quite as blunt as they should be.

Carter 37:45

If it were me, I'd be blunt.

Carter 37:47

What's your exit strategy?

Carter 37:49

When is it? How do you want to go out?

Carter 37:53

Do you want to go out like Brian Mulroney, where you've achieved all the things you've achieved, but you've saddled the party with so much negativity that no one else can take it from there? Or

Carter 38:00

Or do you want to go out like, like

Carter 38:02

like Gretchen, where you try and hand it off properly, but it's just fumbled on the way? Do you want to try and do it like Pierre Trudeau, Pierre Elliott Trudeau, who handed it off and then took it back?

Carter 38:12

You know, like, how do you want to put this?

Carter 38:15

How do you want to put it all in place? How do you want to, to make yourself the

Carter 38:23

you should be writing the terms of your exit now because

Carter 38:27

you don't get to write the terms of your exit

Carter 38:29

at some future date.

Zain 38:32

Boy, react to that from your perspective.

Corey 38:34

Yeah, it's the old Yogi Berra line. If you don't know where you're going, you might end up somewhere else, right? And with his closer advisors, he needs to say, how

Corey 38:43

how does this end?

Corey 38:44

I'm not saying I'm leaving. I'm not saying everybody can start talking about me being the

Corey 38:49

the former prime minister as I'm in the job, But

Corey 38:52

how do we want to write this final chapter?

Corey 38:54

And maybe it's not the final chapter. But that also requires a conversation because I'll tell you something. I think the liberals got somewhat jammed with this last

Corey 39:02

last term and going into this election.

Corey 39:05

It's not just doing stuff in the term. That's not enough to get re-election. It's also a plan for the next term. And I do feel often that long-lived governments in particular and

Corey 39:14

and overly ambitious governments, because they just run through everything like the Roman candle is just shot off and they're just sitting there with an empty

Corey 39:22

empty tube at a certain point.

Corey 39:24

they get to the election, they say, look at us, wasn't that great?

Corey 39:27

And they have nothing to say about what it means to elect them going into the next four years. And that's a really big risk with long-lived governments. They

Corey 39:34

They start to, they've

Corey 39:36

they've lived their own press for too long. they start to believe that they are the only answer to every question.

Carter 39:43

Corey's describing the Alison Redford government in 2012.

Carter 39:46

I mean, as much as we'd kind of come through and we had a bunch of new ideas in the leadership,

Carter 39:51

those ideas in the leadership were all kind of put into the budget. And the budget was only like 15 minutes before the election.

Carter 39:58

because we passed the budget, we then jumped into the election and people were like,

Carter 40:02

yeah, we saw what you gave us in the budget. What's next? And we were like, what do you mean, what's next? The budget. it. That was the thing that we gave you. And they're

Carter 40:09

they're like, no, no, no, no. What's next? What's the next thing? I mean, you had to have a vision beyond just the moment.

Carter 40:15

And it was really hard because, you know, obviously also we had the added complication of having very

Carter 40:21

very little in the way of our caucus supporting us. So the

Carter 40:25

the vision and the ideas that

Carter 40:27

that were proposed in the leadership didn't

Carter 40:29

didn't necessarily see universal buy-in.

Carter 40:31

This is a complex business, and Trudeau might be at the most complex moment of a complex business right now.

Zain 40:41

Carter, I'm going to start with you on this final question for the segment, which is, there's

Zain 40:45

there's probably some within the liberal ranks right now that are looking at this malaise and saying, what could this mean for me?

Zain 40:54

And me being someone who wants that job that Justin Trudeau has. Maybe I'm not a Christa Freeland, the one who's being

Zain 41:00

touted and perhaps even crowned prematurely.

Zain 41:04

But if I'm looking at this malaise, if I'm looking at this summertime sadness

Zain 41:09

sadness almost that's being predicted for me and my party, how

Zain 41:14

how am I taking advantage of it? Am I taking advantage of it if I've got ambitions to fill the chair? What am I doing? Even if they're baby steps, talk to me about some of the things I need to be thinking about and what should I be doing even right now?

Carter 41:27

kind of poo-poo the baby steps, but the baby steps are the things that you need to do before you can run. You need to have an organization in place before you can jump

Carter 41:38

jump up and suddenly say, I'm the next leader.

Carter 41:41

mean, people are already doing this. You can see MLAs, or I'm sorry, MPs going across the country and meeting with people. And one of the reasons that you may be even starting to see this

Carter 41:52

this malaise is taking its different forms is that people

Carter 41:55

people are out instead of at home, right? They are already

Carter 41:59

already starting to tell the story about why they would be a great leader or why

Carter 42:03

why they should be

Carter 42:04

be the person that assembles the next great leadership team.

Carter 42:09

Because keep in mind, you don't have to run for leader to use

Carter 42:13

use this type of opportunity to move yourself up the list, right?

Carter 42:17

right? You can just simply

Carter 42:21

work on someone's leadership team and

Carter 42:23

and find yourself in a much, much different position than

Carter 42:27

ever hoped to be.

Carter 42:28

So you're using this chaos,

Carter 42:31

chaos, if you will, to really start to spread out what it is that you think you can achieve. And

Carter 42:37

And you're going to say, right

Carter 42:38

right now, if I'm

Carter 42:40

I'm an MP, I'm looking at the region that I represent and deciding, am I the MP of influence? If

Carter 42:46

I'm the MP of influence in the region, then whoever becomes leader is going to come through my door.

Carter 42:51

And I'm going to build out that influence in that region. I'm going to own Calgary, or I'm going to own the lower mainland of British Columbia. Because keep in mind, the liberals still have a convoluted leadership system with points. If

Carter 43:06

you're a Quebec MP, you've got tremendous opportunity.

Carter 43:11

I mean, George Chahal and Randy Bossineau have huge opportunities to make make their lives a lot better just

Carter 43:18

just by taking a look at Saskatchewan, Manitoba

Carter 43:22

Manitoba and Alberta and saying we're going to be the members of parliament for all these areas.

Zain 43:27

Corey, round us out on this, the same question to you, right? You're this MP, you're a minister, you're seeing, I don't know if I'd call it chaos, Carter, but point taken, right? You're seeing this perhaps

Zain 43:38

perhaps- It will be

Carter 43:39

be chaos at some point. You

Zain 43:40

You may as well get

Carter 43:41

get ready for it.

Zain 43:42

Interesting. Well, Corey, maybe even to take Carter's thesis here. Tell me if you agree with it. What

Zain 43:46

What is that MP, that person in the ranks right now doing if

Zain 43:49

there's a predicting sort of lull within the Liberal ranks or in the Liberal government?

Corey 43:55

You know, one of the great things a local MP has going for them at a moment like this is that being a good soldier looks exactly like setting up a leadership bid or setting up a team to support a leadership bid.

Corey 44:07

It's like a cloud cover.

Corey 44:09

Well, it doesn't even, go out make sure

Corey 44:11

sure constituency association yours is strong make sure your neighbor's constituency associations are strong make sure the coffers are all full make

Corey 44:18

make sure that there's a big powerful machine now

Corey 44:21

now you're probably going to be the one on top of that in your perfect scenario here that

Corey 44:25

that is able to deliver when there is a need for delivery whether that delivery be a general election or a leadership contest and so a

Corey 44:32

a strong organization is useful in a lot of contexts right it's like buying a computer you don't need to just look at porn on it steven you could actually open up excel if

Corey 44:40

if you want it as well and

Corey 44:42

and so get yourself that good computer so you can open it up and be appropriate to the context again steven don't use it for porn particularly not in a you know a setting like this where you're talking to your two friends

Corey 44:55

yeah greg carter like you don't i closed that

Carter 44:57

that browser window did that still stay open well

Corey 45:00

well you've got a lot of reflection on your glasses and um i just you know we live stream now so it it matters more.

Carter 45:07

Oh, it does matter. I'll close that browser. My bad.

Zain 45:10

Toobin Carter, finish us on this.

Zain 45:16

you were to offer one piece of advice,

Zain 45:19

crystallize this for me, because I think there's something here. Crystallize this for me. One

Zain 45:22

One piece of advice to someone in the liberal ranks, what would it be as they head into summer right now? This is the individual or individuals with ambitions for taking the chair, taking the Party, what would it be?

Carter 45:34

It's all the same. Build

Carter 45:37

Build teams. Whatever's going to happen in the next four years is going to lead to some sort of chaos. That is going to either be Justin Trudeau sticks around for one more term and tries to defeat whoever wins the Conservative Party leadership. That's going to be chaotic for you.

Carter 45:50

If there's a leadership, that's going to be chaotic for you.

Carter 45:54

them come from the same place, which

Carter 45:58

building out a structure that everybody can uh have confidence in so you know even if you're a former mp right

Carter 46:06

right you could see someone like kent hair jump

Carter 46:09

jump back into the

Carter 46:10

the fray build up calgary center calgary centers you

Carter 46:13

know used to have the biggest war chest maybe it needs to have the biggest war chest again it's

Carter 46:18

it's got three years without an mp you

Carter 46:20

you know if you want to be the mp in calgary center presenter um

Carter 46:23

um now's the time uh

Carter 46:24

uh to let you know like

Carter 46:27

that's what needs to happen we're

Zain 46:29

we're gonna leave that segment there move it on to our next segment our next segment lessons from our older dying cousins cory i want to talk about the united states of america it is a it is a place that we used to frequent traveling i don't know if you guys have been there no i have not since 2016 16.

Carter 46:50

I went down there. I went to Nashville. I don't know if you guys know, but I won some awards.

Zain 46:57

team won awards. Congratulations to your team, Carter. I'm saving you from yourself here. This is one of the many instances on the pod.

Carter 47:05

I won because I was there to pick them up.

Zain 47:08

Carter, I want to talk about this. We talked a bit about the January 6th hearings, Carter, from the perspective of how they're doing in terms of the committee, communicating their message, right? We talked about the hiring of the former ABC News director and these videos that they're creating.

Zain 47:24

But Corey, I want to talk about this poll that's out, which says six in 10 Americans say Trump should be charged for January 6th. And the majority of Americans, nearly the same amount, figured

Zain 47:36

figured that this committee was also relatively fair in how they've been proceeding with the hearings thus far. So there's two questions here, right? The second one we'll address second, which is the political effectiveness of this committee. But Corey, talk to me about the overarching question here, which is really the fact that this rule of law that you've been discussing is now being kind of taken in through the political lens like, well, fucking everything else. Your thoughts on this?

Corey 48:05

Yeah. Well, let's start with the obvious. We shouldn't be determining whether someone is prosecuted or not based on how popular that prosecution is. If we want to say we live in a a society with a rule of law. There's this notion that justice is blind. Well, justice is also kind of deaf and doesn't hear the crowd shouting for one outcome or another. And you've got to kind of live that. And the more you drift from it, the more you're going to drift from it because you create all sorts of edge cases here.

Corey 48:32

Now, I'm not naive and prosecutors make decisions to prosecute or not all of the time based on the palatability of it, the consequences of it. You

Corey 48:44

What if by doing this, we create so much more ill in society? What if by prosecuting Trump, we start a civil war? Just to use the most extreme example possible.

Corey 48:53

And there's always a place for judgment, as there is in policing, as there is in so many other things in life. But the

Corey 49:00

more you defer to judgment and away from the rule of law, I think the shakier you are long term, because there's also utilitarian value to rule

Corey 49:08

rule of law in the long term and saying, don't

Corey 49:11

Don't actually care because you can't be mad at me, crowd, if

Corey 49:14

if I don't react to the crowd one way or the other for the cheers or the jeers. But America's in a very dicey place right now.

Corey 49:22

Six in 10 Americans think he should be charged. charged that

Corey 49:25

that doesn't surprise me um

Corey 49:26

um because it was something you know it's 58 when you get into it and it was 54 in the poll they did previous i think

Corey 49:33

maybe 52 either way it's

Corey 49:35

it's a majority then um

Corey 49:38

but that's not how this works and that doesn't tell us anything about what the reaction will be from the other 40 who are a

Corey 49:46

big part of america carter

Zain 49:48

carter your take on this in terms of cory's analysis here that running

Zain 49:53

scenarios based on popularity, perhaps not the right idea, your take?

Carter 49:59

It's totally not the right idea. You do a poll when someone's guilty or not guilty by asking the jury, and it needs to be unanimous.

Carter 50:08

And those people pay attention and they study the evidence.

Carter 50:11

One of the things that really bothers me about the United States is they think they're the only democracy in the world, and they're the only ones who've ever gone through And that's

Carter 50:20

There are many democracies in the world. Many democracies have, in fact, prosecuted former leaders. They have gone through a judge and jury situation. Some of them have been convicted. Some of them have been acquitted. The

Carter 50:35

The democracy in general continues

Carter 50:37

continues forward. Where the democracy tends not to

Carter 50:40

continue forward is when the rule of law is subverted. Now,

Carter 50:44

Now, we're used to the rule of law being subverted by the victor,

Carter 50:47

right? The rule of law is subverted by, you know, Trump ignoring things or pardoning his cronies

Carter 50:53

you know, allowing the January 6th coup attempt to occur.

Carter 50:59

All of that is

Carter 51:01

is interesting, right? But it's not, you

Carter 51:04

you know, it's not this situation. This is a situation where there's an independent judiciary who has been set up to deal with this situation. The framers of the Constitution, the ones that the Republicans hold in such high regard with the Second Amendment, but

Carter 51:18

only that amendment, they actually put together a constitution that they felt would, in fact, be able to sustain this type of challenge. challenge.

Carter 51:27

That's why they built them as three separate branches of government. It needs to go through that. Right now, the greater threat, in my mind, is that they choose not to prosecute and that side feels emboldened to take more action. This shouldn't be taken a look at through

Carter 51:46

through a microscope and just say, okay, what is this about Trump? Trump

Carter 51:49

is part of this. Trump is a big part of this, but it's also the Texas GOP who've have decided that basically secession should be back on the agenda. They

Carter 51:59

They want to take the Voters Rights Act off

Carter 52:01

off the table. They want to really put the United States of America back into a box it hasn't been in forever. That to me is the problem that we're facing. And if you choose not to prosecute Trump because you're afraid that you're going to lose the union, you've already lost the the union, right?

Carter 52:20

right? It's already gone. All that's left is it's just hanging on by a thread, awaiting a madman to be reelected in 2024, who will ultimately destroy the country.

Corey 52:32

Yeah, well, there's a lot that Stephen said there, and I think I agree with almost all of it, if not all of it.

Corey 52:38

America's in a really bad place right now, to state the most fucking obvious thing ever.

Corey 52:44

They're so deep in meta-analysis, they have absolutely lost the goddamn plot they're arguing about things that don't matter at all everybody is the

Corey 52:51

the right the left they

Corey 52:53

they are arguing about things that do matter a lot too don't get me wrong but like the entire cacophony is no longer functioning in

Corey 53:00

in any way remotely resembling like an operating state i

Corey 53:05

i saw this analysis the other day it's just one columnist opinion on one thing so i don't want to like blow it up to be the position of the united states but it was joe

Corey 53:13

joe biden's uh you know merrick Garland, sorry, as AG, should not be looking at prosecuting Donald Trump because that will show weakness,

Corey 53:21

weakness, right? You wouldn't want to show weakness there. Can I count the ways that that's insane?

Corey 53:28

There's probably about three, but America is in a weak place and it is important that they show that the rule of law matters here. The fact that they're crossing every single one of these norms, you have candidates

Corey 53:41

candidates putting out videos about going rhino hunting, Republican in name only and going door

Zain 53:47

door to door like everything's

Corey 53:48

everything's every norm is gone every norm is gone if you haven't seen the video i

Corey 53:53

mean i don't even want don't see the video so cory

Zain 53:55

cory can i ask and i don't mean to like maybe

Zain 53:58

maybe i do i'm gonna ask it this way is

Zain 54:00

is the committee at all to blame for leaning heavily into the politics of it the theatrics the production you know is it any surprise we've gotten to the point that

Zain 54:13

that that that the poll is kind of now put out there to say like how well is this committee doing is it fair should we prosecute like have we kind of just leaned so much into the political part of this process that this shouldn't

Corey 54:25

two different questions as you said yourself zane how well is the committee doing is totally fair ball that's that's something we've been talking about since there's been committees has the committee made a compelling case what the committee is doing is not the same necessarily as what you know prosecutors will be doing with Donald Trump and whether they're going to take this evidence and move forward.

Corey 54:44

I don't think that it's wrong to ask, has the committee put together a compelling case? Have they put the witnesses through their, through their, you know, questioning in an appropriate fashion?

Corey 54:54

Um, that's, that's kind of the system working. What bothers me is this notion of saying, all

Corey 55:00

all right, all right, that's all good. Now, now how would you want to direct the independent judiciary to act if you had the ability to do that? That feels a little bit

Zain 55:07

bit different to me here i

Corey 55:09

don't blame the committee the committee is trying to create the public view that donald trump um did

Corey 55:15

did exactly what he did frankly

Corey 55:17

frankly and it sounds like 60 of americans are there so

Corey 55:21

uh the problem is that's got to be 80 90 or or else that to steven's point it's a minority here that

Corey 55:29

that is pushing around the majority lest

Corey 55:31

lest we forget donald trump lost the election right

Corey 55:36

And 60 percent believe he should be charged.

Corey 55:40

Doesn't mean his odds of winning are that that low because of so many other factors out there, including states

Corey 55:46

states basically openly saying that

Corey 55:49

that they would throw an election to Donald Trump in the future,

Corey 55:52

irrespective of results, basically.

Carter 55:54

Yeah, I mean, we're teetering on the edge anyways. ways. I think that the only way back for the United States, frankly, is

Carter 56:01

is to prosecute Trump, is to show his followers that the rule of law still exists. Now, will some followers take it too far? Absolutely.

Carter 56:08

There will be a group of people who say they are prosecuting Trump because he is saying the right thing and this is someone coming after.

Carter 56:15

Of course, that's going to be part of the situation, but there might be another set of the population that sees it unfolds and sees He sees the evidence that's been presented by the January 6th committee through the trial, through

Carter 56:28

through the discussion. And, you

Carter 56:30

he could be acquitted. Of course he could be acquitted. But he also could be found guilty, both of which would

Carter 56:35

would be very dangerous. But not

Carter 56:37

not prosecuting him is the ultimate danger, because

Carter 56:41

because you're now in a place where the

Carter 56:43

the rule of law no longer matters. Some people can get away with breaking the law and other people can't. And that's just, it's death to democracy, Zane. Just death to it.

Corey 56:58

What the fuck was that?

Zain 57:00

Jesus Christ, Tori. It was getting a little heavy, I'm saying. We're going to leave that segment there, moving on to our final segment. Carter, we do this for you. Everything here is for you, of course. Are we at the end already? Of course it is. Stephen Carter, overrated, underrated. I mentioned this earlier, but Scotiabank and few economists at Scotiabank are using their institutional voice to ultimately say Justin Trudeau is shirking Canada's inflation fight. Is that overrated or underrated in your mind in terms of that broadside or that sharp elbow against the prime minister and his government?

Carter 57:33

Well, it wasn't like the prime minister wasn't being blamed for it anyways. I mean, it's totally overrated. The

Carter 57:37

The inflation is what he's being blamed for. The

Carter 57:40

The price of gasoline is high.

Carter 57:42

That's what he's being hit with. And And that's what he's going to continue. My

Carter 57:45

My food costs more. My gas costs more. Why

Carter 57:48

Why isn't Justin Trudeau doing something?

Zain 57:51

Quite overrated or underrated? Scotiabank using an institutional voice to give a sharp elbow to the PM.

Corey 57:57

Politically overrated. But from a policy point of view, it

Corey 58:02

it has a point, don't you think? You know, I mean, this is inflation

Corey 58:05

inflation is we've talked about this in different contexts where Where if the government really goes in trying to give people money to stop the fact that money is not flowing as freely from banks,

Corey 58:16

banks, that kind of defeats the whole purpose. And then you just get yourself in a really bad situation here. So, you

Corey 58:23

know, not wrong, not likely to have an impact.

Zain 58:27

Corey, I'm going to stick with you for our next one. And it's also about Trudeau. We've been talking about this, if I can call it the funk that the liberals are in. Is that funk, Corey, in your mind, overrated or underrated right now?

Corey 58:41

could give either answer i think at this justification for

Zain 58:44

for both i'm actually more curious than you showing

Zain 58:46

your work than anything else so

Corey 58:48

so for overrated a couple of reasons we've talked about one is it is the end of session funk

Corey 58:53

is the natural state at

Corey 58:55

at the end of session the

Corey 58:57

the idea there's going to be a summer of malaise seems a bit ridiculous to me because the liberals are not the the

Corey 59:02

during the summer they're going to be talking about the conservative party leadership race and

Corey 59:06

we're going to see how that's going to unfold that's

Corey 59:07

that's where the eyes are so i I don't really see that there is, you know, a even normal amount of risk. It seems like a lowered amount of risk for the liberals going going

Corey 59:15

going throughout their daily day work

Corey 59:17

work there or day to day work. But when

Corey 59:19

when you think about underrated,

Corey 59:23

in some ways, I think the liberals are in denial of the fact that there is actually a third term malaise setting in.

Corey 59:29

They can rightly point to an

Corey 59:31

an ambitious policy agenda that they've set over the past couple of years. We've talked about how they're probably one of the most transformative governments of our time.

Corey 59:39

But that doesn't sort of change the feeling of drift that we've got right now on a day-to-day operational level or when we start looking towards the horizon as to, okay, liberals, but what next?

Corey 59:50

And I think that because of that partisan back and forth, they

Corey 59:54

they see it just as partisan back and forth. And they're not seeing the legitimate criticism there that

Corey 1:00:00

governments get old, governments get tired.

Corey 1:00:04

Carter, the liberal funk overrated

Carter 1:00:08

I think it's overrated

Carter 1:00:09

overrated if they choose to address it and be aware of it. It's underrated if they allow it to fester. So if they're aware of it, then don't worry too much. Take action, make sure you're coming back in the fall with a strong agenda, good throne speech or whatever you need to do, or carry on whatever you're choosing to do, but make it strong. wrong um but

Carter 1:00:32

but you know if you don't see it if

Carter 1:00:34

if you don't see that it's happening or you think that it's just normal you're probably in a lot of trouble carter

Zain 1:00:40

carter i'm going to stick with i'm

Zain 1:00:41

i'm going to stick with you for our next question here yep yes

Zain 1:00:44

yes or no carter michelle

Zain 1:00:46

michelle rample gardner entering the ucp leadership race is a game changer you said that others have said so do you agree that her candidacy would be a game changer yes or no no

Zain 1:00:57

sorry yes or no do you think your candidacy would be a game changer yes

Corey 1:01:03

yeah i don't think that it's because she will all of a sudden i think carter made the compelling case she'll be everybody's second choice and she was outside of this warfare one

Carter 1:01:13

we got so many more words i had like one word yes or no and then you get like a like an essay because

Zain 1:01:19

no fucking rules here man come on just just you renew jesus

Zain 1:01:24

jesus keep going cory you were you were doing so well before carter said more words he was only allowed one go

Corey 1:01:30

go ahead cory everybody else who was in the race had

Corey 1:01:33

had has associated in some way shape or form with a side in the jason kenny versus not jason kenny fight and

Corey 1:01:40

and by not even having a membership apparently perhaps michelle uh rample garner has managed to find her way out

Corey 1:01:49

out of that box i

Zain 1:01:51

like that explanation cory for our final question sticking with you sticking Sticking with Michelle Rample-Garner, this

Zain 1:01:57

this time next week, Corey, this

Zain 1:01:59

this time next week, is she in or is she out of the UCP leadership race?

Corey 1:02:07

Well, in, for sure. For sure. I

Zain 1:02:11

this time Friday, she's in.

Zain 1:02:14

Corey's actually taking a prediction question, giving a straight answer, and actually limiting the terms of the question, Carter. Being a

Zain 1:02:23

Now I feel like I need

Carter 1:02:24

need to hedge and take the traditional Corey position.

Zain 1:02:26

Carter, this time next week, what is Michelle Rappelgaard? Is she in or out? I'm

Carter 1:02:29

I'm going to one-up Corey. We're going to be covering her announcement live when we do Thursday night's podcast for the subscribers-only Patreon version of

Carter 1:02:37

of The Strategist. If you missed, by the way, this

Carter 1:02:39

this last Strategist episode, Corey

Carter 1:02:42

Corey and I really dug deep on a number of issues. And

Carter 1:02:46

And I think that we've been proven to be perfectly correct on everything. Isn't that right, Corey? No,

Corey 1:02:50

I would agree with that. And if you're not paying $6 a month, you'll never know. You'll

Carter 1:02:55

You'll never know. But, you know, the $6 has been pretty well spent for those of you who are spending the $6.

Zain 1:03:01

Good. Way to tell people how to feel, Carter. I like that. We're going to leave it there. That's a wrap on Episode 998 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Velji. With me, as always, Stephen Carter, Corey Hogan, and we will see you next time.

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