Episode 957: A lack of alacrity

Zain 0:02

This is a strategist episode 957. My name is Zain Velji with me as always Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Guys, we are back to the masses. We are done our obligatory Microsoft Zune run for the last what however many was it was a three episodes was three episodes three episodes.

Corey 0:18

episodes. So we have to do three a year right now in the dying years of this contract. This is

Zain 0:22

is a terrible contract that Chester signed for us Carter. We've

Carter 0:25

We've covered this before. I mean, people don't understand, but Chester has put us basically indentured servitude to Bill Gates. I mean, how many episodes did we lose? 522? And then three every year. 526. Yeah. And

Corey 0:38

three every year. So

Zain 0:39

So to fill you all in, every year we have to do a certain number of episodes on the Zune platform owned by Microsoft. Now, as much as the platform sucks, we always enjoy doing it. So we do want to give a shout out to the Microsoft team, to everyone there, once again, for the studio space, for the John Turner hologram. That's always fun. It's like Carter said.

Carter 1:02

said. What would John do? It's a great segment. I love it. It

Zain 1:04

It is absolutely true. So thank you to Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer and Jeffrey Epstein and the entire Microsoft team for their contributions.

Corey 1:14

Yeah, it was wonderful.

Zain 1:15

Yeah, you were particularly on fire. Speaking of being on fire, our biggest episode of the year, we rarely do this. We rarely tease future episodes because—

Corey 1:25

because— We're not big on self-promotion, that's true.

Zain 1:27

true. Absolutely not. But it is time, Corey, for our annual holiday spectacular. Not tonight, but it is coming up very shortly. here and we just want to give people a heads up that uh you know the eggnog uh the reading socks the trash fire all of that uh which has become accustomed to the holiday spectacular will once again be on the docket this year pretty

Carter 1:50

pretty exciting for me i'm pretty i'm looking forward to it you know this is the only time of the year you guys are actually respectful towards me uh because you feel like you have to be nice to your elders at christmas you know because zane still believes leaves in santa claus it's nice cory

Zain 2:04

cory one of my favorite things of the holiday spectacular is of course the eulogies uh both you and steven uh eulogize uh political figures parties stories that have happened in the past year that's of course my favorite part but this year we've got a new uh segment for the holiday spectacular once again we usually don't tease these up but this is so special that i think it is worthy of letting people know ahead of time we thanks

Corey 2:28

thanks to our sponsor Monster Flare Airlines.

Corey 2:30

Yeah. I mean, it's a segment called Not Really Going Places, where we identify an

Corey 2:36

individual who we don't actually think has...

Corey 2:47

read it like they told us to, Corey. Go ahead. Yeah, I'm sorry. We identify an individual who, you

Corey 2:52

you know, many people think are going to be taken off to great heights. And we

Corey 2:58

believe otherwise. And we do take nominations for this. That's the other exciting part about this here. So if you want to get your nominations in for the Not Really Going Places contest brought to us by our sponsor, then just tweet at strategistpod with your nominees. The winner gets a one-way flight from Calgary to Abbotsford on Flair Airlines. You are responsible for all additional fees. We will cover the base airline. uh costs and um we really look forward to seeing what you the the crowd can bring for us yeah

Zain 3:32

yeah i mean nominate someone yourself or someone in your life that you feel like isn't really going places could this be the shot in the yard could they remake themselves on the tarmac to abbotsford could they could they find themselves at yyc airport where they where they probably more than likely end up going back home uh from yyc back to wherever they're from and don't make it to Abbotsford. But could this be something you want to give someone in your life or frankly yourself? Carter, you wanted to jump in. I

Carter 4:01

I just want to make sure that people understand the rules and regulations. None of the three of us can be nominated for the Not Really Going Anywhere Award.

Carter 4:12

We've won it all before. So thank you very much. Except for Corey. And

Zain 4:17

we also don't accept any nominations from Quebec, do we?

Carter 4:20

Yeah, no, of course not.

Zain 4:22

Yeah, no nominations from Quebec. We're not. It's

Carter 4:24

It's against the rules in Quebec. They've got laws against this type of thing.

Zain 4:27

Yeah, against excellent airlines like Flair Airlines. Once again, thank you, Corey. We will, of course, be taking nominations. Flair Airlines, there's a difference between going and getting somewhere. All right, guys, let's move it on to our first segment. Our first segment, Fine, Fabulous, or Fucked. You know, we do this as a roundup of so many stories, and especially for those who've missed our Microsoft Zoom run. We want to take some of the stories that we may have missed covering in the masses. We want to cover some of the stories that are being talked about right now. We'll use our very simple, very fun scale of fine, fabulous, or fucked. You will answer the question based on a bit of a blurb that I'll give you about the situation. You'll tell me whether it's fine, whether it's fabulous, or whether it's fucked for a party, a political figure, a person that I highlight for you. And there's no better way to start than to start. Stephen Carter, I'm going to start with you. The liberals on their border closures being criticized heavily that the border closures for the new Omicron variant aren't very useful, don't really work, are performative, being criticized, of course, for the broader conversations on vaccine equity. We'll get to that. But, Carter, on border closures and the politics for the liberals, are they fine? Is it actually fabulous, the border closures that they've done? If one of the metrics you're keeping time with is they've done it a lot quicker than they have in the past, or is this fucked?

Carter 5:55

It's fucked. I mean, you're punishing the wrong people. Omicron or Omicron or however we want to say it. I think it's supposed to be Omicron because it's the opposite of Omega. I

Carter 6:08

I think that it's everywhere. It's obviously still in Alberta or it's already in Alberta. The travel restrictions appear to be taken so quickly, again, in part because I think of kind of a systemic, I want to say systemic racism, but maybe that's too far. Maybe it's just a systemic degradation

Carter 6:29

degradation of Africa because it was first identified in South Africa. It became very easy just to say no one can travel from there. It also didn't hurt that we don't have any direct flights from South Africa at this time. so it was a relatively easy play to make but of course it was the wrong play because south africa detected it but i don't think that south africa had the uh had

Carter 6:54

had the you know the only micron uh variants in the world as we're seeing now uh they are of course uh now that everybody knows what to look for uh it's being found around the globe and uh here we are even even in our Our sainted Alberta, where we've never had a case of coronavirus,

Carter 7:13

coronavirus, we still have some of those cases. So, you know, things aren't great.

Carter 7:20

And I think that shutting down travel was just an overreaction that was made easier by a lack of direct flights and systemic racism towards Africa.

Zain 7:30

Corey, you know, this is a government that in the early stages of 2020 was side by side with the WHO saying border closures don't work. We're not going to do them. Throughout the course of the pandemic, they've been hit hard on the question of border closures by the conservatives, federally, by Doug Ford, provincially. Quicker reaction time as it relates to the criticism and this strategy of the quick border closures. Fine, fabulous, or fucked for the Trudeau liberals? I

Corey 7:57

think it's going to be fine for them politically, if only because I feel that people after two years have a combination of fatigue and confusion on this entire matter. Lord knows I do. I'm not throwing stones. owns. Do border closers work or not? I don't know. The quicker reaction time is noteworthy. I think in many ways, governments are input-output devices, and because they got hammered previously for not acting quickly, they decided to act quickly in this case. Was it the right move? I don't know. It might actually be more popular than what could be the right move, which is to keep borders open and have people moving around. So do I think that they're fucked? Not politically, no. But this does does sort of underline a couple of other problems that we're all digesting right now one is here we go again around that roller coaster you know just as there was delta now there's omicron which i'll pronounce that way even if it's the wrong way because um you

Corey 8:49

you know same reason i don't call an antithesis an antithesis i suppose you know i got a little bit of flair here uh i'm going very comfortable doing things wrong personally

Zain 9:00

you're going places i i would say you're going places um

Corey 9:04

um but yeah this this is just another thing that's piled on top where the government needs to be careful is it does invite the kind of cynicism that nobody has a clue what's going on which is of course the case right yeah

Zain 9:17

yeah like it's yeah yeah uh

Corey 9:20

we're at a point where fatigue is is real and um it's

Corey 9:26

it's going to give certain people just another thing to point to saying, yeah, before border closures were bad, now they're good.

Corey 9:32

Who knows what to believe? Nobody knows anything, right? This nihilism that is sort of taking over our public discourse, when in reality, science just changes, you know, and realities change.

Zain 9:43

Carter, you know, Corey mentions fatigue, and I want to talk about that. I was going to talk about that regardless, but I'm glad you mentioned it, Corey. From your observations, Carter, are you seeing this government or any government not do something they should in regards to trying to to combat the fatigue, that even the quote-unquote good soldiers, those of us who got our double doses and are now just freaking tired of this nonstop wave of new variants and waves overall kind of hitting on us. Is there anything that you're seeing governments or leaders not do that they should be?

Carter 10:18

I'm not sure. I honestly don't know. No, I mean, I find myself kind of in this really weird spot where, you know, I

Carter 10:27

I don't really want more action, right? Like, I think that, you know, as we've moved through this, I'm now at the place where I wear a mask into every store, every place that I go that's public. Would I stop doing that if it wasn't required? Probably not.

Carter 10:41

Just because it's almost become the habit, right? How many months does it take to form a habit? And I don't remember the actual reason or the actual date, but I think it's like three months of activity or something like that. And you will form a habit. Maybe it's three weeks. I have no idea. But now I've kind of formed this habit of wearing a mask wherever I go. I'm vaccinated. I wait anxiously the booster shot that I'm going to be required to take. I'm happy to take tests if required. I think that where

Carter 11:11

where I am is I'm now at the place where we know we're going to be living with coronavirus, whether it's the

Carter 11:18

the Omicron or it's Omicron or it's the Delta variant or it's just plain old Alpha. Each one of those variants, each one of those viruses is just one more step in a very long, very, very long process that we're working to defeat. feet. The only thing I guess that I could say that our governments aren't doing enough of is targeting the areas that aren't vaccinated at all and getting the vaccines out. I was reading today that they've now produced enough vaccines to give vaccinations to every adult in the world. And I don't know that we've done enough to actually get those vaccines into everybody's arms.

Zain 12:00

Corey, same question to you, whether it's on policy or the conversation that Carter just just introduced on equity or messaging and communication style? Is there something you're seeing our governments, plural, not doing something that you feel like they should from a political strategy perspective?

Corey 12:18

Well, I think I generally echo everything Stephen said. We've gotten to this point where, I

Corey 12:26

don't know, we're all just sort of drifting through it, right? Battle lines have been drawn and everything's moving forward. The thing that I I think governments need to be doing is the obvious one everyone's talking about, which is sharing these vaccines more.

Corey 12:38

One of the reasons I've seen floated out there that perhaps South Africa might have more challenges with variants is that being, you

Corey 12:45

you know, there's a high instances of HIV positivity and being HIV positive with COVID makes it more likely that a variant will spring out. This was New York Times was reporting this this weekend. And so, you know, we have we have We've sort of grabbed them and we've seized them for ourselves, vaccines, you know, in the, you know, in the Western world. But that obviously is an approach that has some serious drawbacks, as we are seeing now. And it really is one of those things that the virus doesn't care about lines on a map. And it's time we get serious about what we can do to protect all of us, which is to protect all of us. So.

Zain 13:22

Yeah, I totally agree.

Zain 13:23

slow they've been getting all these things started. We just got parliamentary secretaries, which we'll talk about in a second, just a few days ago, still no mandate letters for the ministers just yet. But as it relates to their suite of priorities between now and year end and what they're telegraphing, from your perspective, fine, fabulous or fucked? I

Corey 14:09

think the priorities themselves are fine. But the lack of alacrity that the government is showing right now is a little bit fucked. And we've been talking about this for a couple of months going going back to when it became clear that the House wasn't going to be coming back right away, and there was going to be a bit of a lag in between. And I think we've been treated to the longest lag between election results and the House coming.

Corey 14:30

And, you know, that's

Corey 14:32

that's alarming. Like, if I was in one liberal headquarters right now, I'd be doing a bit of side-eye, and I'd be a little bit concerned because you don't normally sort of associate a

Corey 14:41

a dynamic government with a lot of spring in its step with such slow-moving activity. And most of what's been discussed, again, important

Corey 14:50

important things, some things that the government could have been doing beforehand, if they wanted to, if they were their priorities, it

Corey 14:57

it really just doesn't have that big momentous feel that you think of once you come back with a new mandate. date, right? And it reminds me a bit of some of the, you

Corey 15:06

know, the long-toothed governments of yore, right? The last client election, things like that, where they come back, but you almost don't know why they're coming back. And they sort of don everything they seem to have wanted to do. And that's a dangerous place for a government to do. Governments need to be constantly reinventing themselves. They need to be thinking about, you know, to use that old chestnut that our old friend Goldie Heider throws out a lot, right? Where is the puck going, right? Where is

Carter 15:31

is the puck going, Corey?

Corey 15:34

yeah where is it going wayne's

Carter 15:36

wayne's really great players like gretzky they always knew where it was that's what that's

Zain 15:40

that's a wayne squad quote because it's wayne gretzky and michael scott together uh

Zain 15:44

uh yeah go ahead go ahead cory we won't we won't my

Corey 15:47

my point here is this if

Corey 15:48

if if they are going to be content to run a better version or uh get through the end of their list or the things that they thought they were going to do from the 2015 election the 2019 election yes we have child But that was even pre-2021 election. They're

Zain 16:05

They're going to be in

Corey 16:05

in a lot of trouble, right?

Corey 16:07

right? There is going to be a swing back at some point. And it will end up being Erin O'Toole's government before you can say, wow, that happened quickly and I didn't see it coming. They've got to be thinking about what the Liberal government that Canadians want next is going to be. And I hope somebody is doing that work. Because right now it does feel a little bit stale.

Zain 16:30

Carter, you know, one place that Puck is not going is Abbotsford. We know that for sure. No,

Carter 16:35

never been in Abbotsford. The

Zain 16:37

The Puck has never gone to Abbotsford, and you would be not very wise to go there to find said Puck. Carter, a lack of alacrity, which is, of course, also the name of your autobiography,

Zain 16:49

is what Corey said. I want to get your take on this. Fine, fabulous, or fucked? This suite of priorities. And let's also talk about it from that lens Corey was hitting on. This lack of urgency, argumentatively procrastination, late on parole sex, late on mandate letters, then looking at a very ambitious, you know, sprint to year end while inflation creeps up. What are you kind of thinking about this suite of priorities, fine, fabulous or fucked? I

Carter 17:15

think it's pretty fucked. I mean, I think this suite of priorities that we've kind of seen in the first little bit here actually feels more like the cleanup of the session rather than the start of a session.

Carter 17:24

You know, we would clean up the session by doing some of these things, making sure they're all finished off, all the I's are dotted, the T's are crossed. This is what we'd be doing. You know, this is the third attempt at passing conversion therapy. We finally got it done. Thank you. Very pleased, very excited. But that's, you know, it's housekeeping. The House already agreed to this. So here we are. I think that there are some bigger things that are supposed to be coming. But what this kind of really feels to me, and it's something that I keep in mind quite a bit recently, of course, is that you only get one first year.

Carter 17:59

And, you know, this isn't a first year. This is a first year after the third election. And the first year after the third election is fundamentally different than the first year that

Carter 18:09

that you have. And that's where you define a government. And I think that they really could use some new energy, some new excitement. You guys know I love Katie Telford. I think she's fabulous. I think she's astounding. I think she's got the world by its tail that she knows where it comes about.

Zain 18:27

about. butt here comes the butt but

Carter 18:29

but it's time you

Carter 18:30

you know i think it's time to put in some new blood because the blood that's there isn't generating a new vision a new idea and it isn't pushing the principal isn't pushing the prime minister to achieve new ends and new goals and new heights and we really need it especially okay

Corey 18:46

okay i'm gonna just say like let's

Corey 18:48

let's be a little fair to them i mean the the child care deal was a was a

Corey 18:53

a pretty big deal right and that occurred not not too long long ago here i guess my point is is that that was done six months ago now not really done obviously ontario is still a pretty big chestnut that's got to be cracked here but it's

Corey 19:08

it's not as though that it looks like the government has not done anything significant in the past 12 months my concern is more they

Corey 19:15

don't seem to have a spring in their step and an enthusiasm to do more right and they're just sort of running through a list at this point and

Corey 19:20

and you don't get the sense of a lot of excitement a lot of ideas now maybe i'm wrong maybe people will at me with all sorts of really big ideas that are out there but my general sense is even in the campaign it was it

Zain 19:32

was more of this like yeah it was a more of this sort of campaign carter with that being said like we can go down two paths here we could start speculating in terms of why why do we feel like there's a lack of spring in their step you've probably given me give us given us one of your speculative reasons around like political sort of staff leadership so to speak but but But rather than doing that, maybe I'd ask you guys, you know, this is year one of the third, you know, sort of mandate, I guess it's not really the third mandate, but the third time you've won after an election. What would you have structured it, Stephen? Maybe I'll start with you, then Corey, go to you. Same question. In terms of your tone or tenor or, you know, sense of assertiveness or aggressiveness, knowing that you could script what the day after this summer election looked like till the end of the year. What would you have done different? I know we're playing a bit of Monday morning quarterback, but tell me what you would be doing, seeing where they've kind of laid out the speech from the throne and their at least parliamentary priorities between now and the end of the year.

Carter 20:33

I think I would have pushed really hard to kind of

Carter 20:36

of get something started. I mean, I think that there's a housing initiative that's floating. I think that there's a lot of things that are kind of just getting started. You know, Guilbault environment is very interesting. interesting, Wilkinson moving from environment into natural resources. Something's brewing there, I'm sure. There's a reason why these ministers have been moved around. There's some excitement, I think, that could come from that. I would have moved to just

Carter 21:04

just try and get that going a little bit faster. I think that the problem isn't necessarily that

Carter 21:08

that there isn't something coming. The problem is that you're not defining that something early.

Carter 21:14

maybe they've taken a different calculation than we have maybe

Carter 21:16

maybe the calculation that they have is uh

Carter 21:18

uh listen there's not a lot of of runway between you know between september and christmas let's just do the minimum and get into january and really shake 2022 i could actually understand that i think that that would be a decent a decent strategy as well um it just is a little bit weaker um you know i

Carter 21:39

would have suggested that there needed to be something a little bit more defining in the first two months because now we're in December. Nothing's going to matter in December. January is your next opportunity. And arguably, even January is a little bit lost. You really might want to try something in February. So, you know,

Carter 21:59

know, it's an interesting time.

Zain 22:02

Corey, same question to you. What would your strategy be now playing a little bit of Monday morning quarterback looking at the Liberals between between election night to where we sit here in December heading to the end of the year.

Corey 22:14

You know, I've been wondering, as Stephen was talking in particular, are the liberals that thrown or are they that down that they didn't get their majority? Was the plan going to be entirely different if they had gotten a majority government in September? Was there going to be some major spring of activity that we're just not seeing now? Or was it always planned to be at this particular cadence? Because, you know, I understand, especially coming out of an election that you went in thinking you were going to get a majority at the midway point you were thinking oh my god we could lose this and then managing to pull it out and ending up in roughly the same spot you were before that there'd be a certain decompression i suppose i will say that has to happen there um but you wouldn't think that there would have to be a full reimagining

Corey 22:56

reimagining of what the next six months looks like yeah carter it's got his hand up it's apparently a grade school very

Carter 23:03

very It's very polite. I wonder

Carter 23:06

wonder if they didn't have the same transition structure.

Carter 23:09

You know, I think that one of the challenges when you go into your third election, in your first election, you have that great transition team, right? You've pulled together a transition team. They're all ready to go. You've got your first 90 days all mapped out.

Carter 23:21

You know exactly how it's going to unfold. Basically take the campaign structure. You're running. You're ready to go, right? That

Carter 23:27

That transition team is there. the second one um you

Carter 23:30

you are the transition team right you're just you kind of maybe you've got a few people that you're bringing in or you got a few people that you task to this um is it just possible that they didn't have the transition map that they didn't have the transition planned

Carter 23:43

planned and then they just hit the ground after

Carter 23:45

after the election and they said okay let's plan out 2022 uh

Carter 23:50

and 2020 we're going to count them as lost years and we're just going to start planning for 2022 2022.

Carter 23:55

That's what we'll put our heads into. And

Carter 23:57

And I'm sure that great things will come. But

Carter 24:00

But we're not going to be ready to hit the ground running because, frankly, the

Carter 24:04

the beginning is overrated. It's the end that matters in elections anyways. So why

Carter 24:10

why bother hitting the ground running properly?

Zain 24:14

Corey, I'm going to actually go to you before I ask my next question. So finish your thought on what you were saying on the liberals being that down, not getting their majority. You were on that thread i

Corey 24:24

think that was my thought i'm i'm wondering if

Corey 24:26

if they had if they were just that beaten down by the fact they didn't get the majority or that saddened by it i'm not really sure um

Corey 24:37

carter raises an interesting point you know the the start is somewhat overrated at a moment like this and we are obviously at a moment with omicron and just

Corey 24:46

just society in general that That maybe there is something to be said about keeping your powder dry and bringing out your big stuff next year. But it's interesting because right now, in a funny way, as much as we talk about the drama

Corey 24:59

drama of the conservative movement overall, in some ways I would say they've done a more successful job of setting the agenda in the past month. Inflation is something everybody is talking about. People are being critical about the decisions that the government is making on travel. well, the government seems a little bit more responsive to the conservatives than I would have thought. Now, admittedly, inflation is a thing everywhere, right? You know, in political discourse, but they rode that horse early and they're riding it hard. And you saw it show up in the throne speech, which is not necessarily something that I think a government that was more in control of the agenda would have allowed at least the way and as strongly as it came out.

Zain 25:42

I don't want to belabor the point on this particular item, because I do want to, to your point, Corey, talk about the conservatives in a second. But I do want to ask both of you that could, I almost promised that we wouldn't go down this track of speculating what's happening. However, do you feel like for the two of you that this could be a result of the command and conquer style of government that not just the liberals, but others have used in the past, the PMO centric, the bottleneck, the potential bottleneck strategy that everything goes through Carter, is that what you were alluding to with the transition planning? And by extension, do you feel like this could just be the nature of modern governments that have structurally designed themselves to go through a very small group of people for yays and nays on every single thing?

Carter 26:30

Yeah, I mean, it absolutely slows things down. You know, and you can see it even in the way that administrations tend to work now. The government actually, as much as it goes through the PMO, you also see it all happening through, you know, the senior clerk, right? Making sure that the government's running through, you know, to match the prime minister's vision. And it does slow everything down. You don't get to just get a simple yes or no. You have to wait until it's all cleared by the center and the center makes sure that everything is actually working the way it's supposed to. And I don't think it's necessarily a better form of government. I just think that it is where we

Carter 27:14

we are now. And, you

Carter 27:18

know, it's disappointing, I think. I think that I

Carter 27:21

I still, I have a romantic attachment to ministers who were real ministers, ministers who were accountable, ministers who did the work of their departments, ministers who were leaders. I think we had better people when we did it that way and now the command and control structure isn't allowing people to shine but

Carter 27:41

also understand what it feels like to be in the center and trying to control things because sometimes your ministers make it really hard to give them responsibility.

Zain 27:52

Corey you wanted to jump in on that? No you do not want

Carter 27:56

jump in on that you're just smiling I

Carter 27:57

I understand, I take the hard knocks for this podcast, it's what I do

Zain 28:02

I'm going to stick with the Liberals for a second now that you guys have mentioned one thing. Corey, I'm going to start with you. Fine, fabulous or fucked? The Liberals on Friday, the prime minister's office, as we were just chatting about, introducing their parliamentary secretaries, long awaited, 37 of them on the list. Some of the cabinet positions that he's assigned to ministers have been split into two parlsecs. I mean, at this point, who isn't a parliamentary secretary? I know one answer, the three of us. Corey, fine, Fine, fabulous, or fucked? The liberal strategy on parliamentary secretary, the volume of them, and kind of anything you saw with this list that was unveiled on Friday afternoon. I

Corey 28:37

I mean, it's fucked, but it's not uniquely fucked. This has been a long time coming. And the past couple of cadres of parliamentary secretaries, including the ones in the late Harper days, have been similarly robust, shall we say. Unwieldy. Yeah, unwieldy. That's a great word for it. It does sort of blow my mind. The Canadian cabinet is very big relative to other countries. And I think part of that is you create a big cabinet to balance all of those regional pressures we've talked about in the past, those demographic pressures. Is there every pressure that you can imagine as a prime minister you're trying to address? But then to sort of double it up by having all of these bloody parliamentary secretaries as well, who I have no doubt are doing good work, but it's

Corey 29:21

it's a bit aggrandized work, right? It's very funny

Corey 29:25

funny because when you look at the size of the caucus and you look at how many people are parliamentary secretaries and you look at how many people are ministers and then you look at how many people have other jobs like house leader or deputy house leader or whatnot. not like

Corey 29:37

like you know how how much do you sort of look around and say what did i do wrong if you're just just he says in quotes a government member right i think one of the things about creating all of these titles and and spreading them around the way you do is yeah it's a currency to buy peace but it also you know it creates idle hands you know it has people who all of a sudden say things like i'm supposed to be parliamentary secretary of x and i'm not doing anything i'm bored or we should should be doing this, or we should be doing that. And you create all sorts of additional pressures as you as you build out these titles. And I have no doubt that there are governments all over this country that are that are feeling that and there are organizers all over this country who are sort of nodding with fuck, do I feel that right now? Right? Because it's a it's a short term fix.

Corey 30:24

But if it's not a real job, it's not a real job. And at the same time, you're creating this sense of have not for people who don't have the real job. So, you know, if I ruled the world, there There would be a cabinet that was probably two-thirds the size the cabinet is, and almost no parliamentary secretaries. I think that there's ways to manage it otherwise. Really, what's happened is you've weakened the individual member to the point where they're bored.

Corey 30:47

Make individual members relevant again and stop having so many fucking parliamentary secretaries.

Zain 30:53

fabulous, or fucked, the 37-person plus. And I'm going to say plus because to Corey's point, other people also on this list got other duties and assignments. and, I don't know, quasi-committee portfolios and loot bags or whatever. 37 parliamentary secretaries, fine, fabulous, or fucked in your mind?

Carter 31:11

It's fine. I'm going to take the opposite perspective of Corey and say that this is to stop idle hands, right? Like, you give them to the parliamentary secretary and then remind them that the country's big and they need to go to different places for you. It enables the ministers to get out and travel. They can leave their parliamentary secretary to answer questions in the House. They're supposed to be relatively informed or

Carter 31:34

or vice versa. The minister is going to stay and you send your parliamentary secretary to Abbotsford, British Columbia on Flair Airlines.

Carter 31:44

But, you know, those are the types of decisions. That minister

Zain 31:48

minister is not getting their job back. No,

Carter 31:49

No, it's a terrible situation. Their

Zain 31:51

Their six-week unexcused absence on the tarmac is not going to – that's a good promotion opportunity. If you want to, we know some ministers, listen, if you, and parliamentary secretaries too, if you want the job of your minister, book them a Flair Airlines flight this holiday season. Carter, back to you. Thank

Carter 32:07

Thank you very much for that great introduction of our sponsor, not our sponsor, Zane. So, you know, I think that, you

Carter 32:16

you know, having idle hands is actually far more dangerous than having 37 parliamentary secretaries that you can send around to. That's an interesting

Zain 32:24

interesting point, Carter. That's actually a very interesting point. That you're giving them – it might be make work, but you're giving them work. Is that what

Carter 32:29

what you're trying to – Well, then, you know, I mean, even – I think that George Chahal is currently chair of the Alberta caucus. I mean, he's got something to do now. Keeps him out of mailboxes. The

Corey 32:38

The chair of the Alberta caucus.

Corey 32:41

It's an important job, Corey. It's a big caucus. Big

Zain 32:44

Big caucus. But, Corey, even elevating this as a strategy question outside of this particular 37-member list, what do you think of Carter's point about assigning more jobs, make work jobs even perhaps, to kind of, you know, remedy the approach of people getting bored and then making more errors rather than helping the caucus. Yeah,

Corey 33:06

Yeah, that's the theory. The practice could be very different. Anybody who's ever managed somebody who they didn't quite know what to do with will have some sympathy for this, right? Where it's like all of us, I'm looking at Zane, who I once managed, I'm thinking, boy, do I have stories. Did you manage me?

Corey 33:23

you. Yeah, we collectively managed Stephen. even but uh hey

Corey 33:27

no i mean it's they're looking for stuff to do they're coming to you they're saying hey i'd like something to do and all of a sudden it becomes a source of work for you yourself to find work that actually you're not that enthused about that they then get producing and that's ultimately not a very healthy situation so are

Corey 33:45

are there needs for parliamentary secretaries in certain areas oh yeah absolutely there's some big things that get jumped together in individual portfolios especially in this country like health right i can see the logic of having like an associate minister of health or a bunch of parliamentary secretaries for health it's it's half the fucking government for a provincial government right tons of logic there but you know the list that we have here it's it's like do we really need a a minister and a parliamentary secretary for oh i don't know transport i'm i'm doubtful right uh you know some of these these portfolios break into so many other sub-portfolios here. Do we need a parliamentary secretary to the president of the Queen's Privy Council for Canada and minister of emergency preparedness? Is that a real job?

Corey 34:31

Maybe. I don't know, but I'm guessing of those 37, not all of them are. And I think that that is a funny thing. And people who have fake jobs know they have fake jobs. You're not doing yourself any favors in the longterm.

Corey 34:44

Carter, do you want to rebut before I move on?

Carter 34:46

Yeah. Yeah, I just think that it's

Carter 34:48

it's still safer than having them plot to take out the prime minister.

Zain 34:53

Let's move it on to our next one. Carter, I'm going to start with you on this one. Pierre Polyavra on inflation. He is, you know, one can't argue he's making it an issue, but he's running, you know, pretty loose with the facts, trying to use selective facts on Switzerland, talking about hyperinflation, which is something that happens when we have got 10 times the amount of inflation that we have right now. as a political strategy for Pauly Everett. Clearly, he's making an impact, making this an issue. It's something we're talking about, inflation as a consequence. But playing hard and loose with the facts, fine, fabulous, or fucked in your mind is a political strategy for the conservatives. I

Carter 35:30

I think it's fucked. I think the problem is going to be when people, like, there's a regular type of inflation that we all see.

Carter 35:39

Right now, the inflation has brought us basically back up to the same line that we were on prior to the pandemic. That line continues to go up about, I don't know, 2% on

Carter 35:49

on average every year. And I think that that's the trick, is the on average part. We may be up 4% right now. But let's also keep in mind that we're from the province that's driving much of that inflation. Every time oil and gas dramatically changes, so does the inflation rate. Right. So I

Carter 36:06

I think that this is, you know, it might be a short term gain as everything Pierre touches is a short term gain. He always pushes it too far. He always makes himself look like a little bit of an ass. But at the end of the day, he does score political points for his team, but they tend to tend to disappear by the time that they actually matter.

Zain 36:28

Corey, as a political strategy, fine, fabulous or fucked in terms of what Paulie Everett is trying to do here. Clearly he's trying to like bolster this argument that Canada's inflation is unique, that this sort of global thing that's happening should not weather Trudeau from the criticism and the political damage that he deserves. From your perspective, his strategy of kind of playing hard and loose with the facts here, fine, fabulous or fucked?

Corey 36:50

So you kind of put a bit of English on it at the end there. His strategy on making inflation like his cause celeb I think is fabulous and it's really worked for him. And when I think back a couple of months, and he had that video of like the two pieces of lumber, and we were making fun of that. And we thought, what an ass, right? But I mean, he has managed to tie the cautionary tale of inflation as a common to the Conservative Party. And they look somewhat prescient on this issue because of his efforts here. Because, yeah, it is a thing that is happening internationally. But lest we forget, you know, credit where credit's due. And I wouldn't say I'm a Pierre Polyev enthusiast on an average day, right?

Corey 37:31

When he started that issue, economists were the ones telling him he was wrong. You know, inflation was still within the guardrails. It was between 2% and 4%. What the hell are you doing, you jackass? But, of course, inflation has now gone outside of those guardrails, and it's gone further than that. And while it is a problem across the world, and while it seems to be driven largely by the supply side and, you know, supply chain problems, even things like the Ever Given going sideways in the Suez Canal are exacerbating it, right?

Corey 37:58

He saw the warning signs that inflation was going to be a thing. And as a result, the conservatives get to, you know, get to reap some of that benefit.

Corey 38:07

You know, there is a reason why this election that just occurred, as inflation was coming up, the conservatives were the benefactor of that. That didn't mean that they won the election, but it was certainly a strong issue for them.

Corey 38:17

So, of course, he's going to continue to push that and he's going to continue to flag that because he's not just talking about the future now. He's reminding people that he and, by extension, the Conservative Party were the inflation hawks before anybody was worried about inflation. And let me tell you something. While inflation itself may be a somewhat esoteric concept most of the time,

Corey 38:36

it is until it isn't. And when inflation is a really big deal, people care about it a lot because it dramatically affects affordability. And if you are living in downtown Toronto, and you had dreams of owning a house, and the house is now 40% more expensive, you're

Corey 38:49

you're just going to be thinking about that in terms of one giant bucket there. If you are purchasing milk at the grocery store, and you're seeing the cost has gone up, or bacon has gone up, and it's true, all of these things have, right, then

Corey 39:01

then you're going to be feeling that, and you're going to be seeing that as a bit of an issue. Is it an issue that Justin Trudeau is responsible for?

Corey 39:11

you know, but to

Corey 39:12

to many, many Canadians, because of the work of Pierre Polyev, it is. So from a political point of view,

Corey 39:19

he scored some pretty significant points here.

Zain 39:21

Carter, I'm going to take a pause for a second, because I think we do this about once every year, where we criticize Corey with how he says milk. Corey, can you say it one more time? Yeah, please.

Zain 39:32

No, that is definitely not what you said. You just said something totally different. Also, we'll let you, we gave you esoteric when it's esoteric, but milk? I'm not letting milk slip by again. I probably I will for the next year. Carter, you know, any, I guess the point The point here is, Corey, to what you're saying, yes, they made an issue. And I think credit to the conservatives for making an issue, for keeping it alive, for putting something in their message box that is clearly considered a historical strength for conservative parties. I guess, Carter, my concern for the conservatives is that when they try to make this case, is this sort of hyperbolic version that Pierre Polyarif is trying to put out there going to pay – is it going to diminish that case? Is it actually going to be something that costs them politically at the end of the day? That's what I'm trying to get to.

Carter 40:23

Well, it feels like it's the little boy who called Wolf, right? If it continues to be an actual thing for a period of time, then yeah, I suppose it could have real impact. And he is setting himself up for the start of that type of large inflationary gain. If this does settle down, and I'm not going to be playing the role of economist here. There's smarter people than me that can pick this up. But if

Carter 40:45

if it does settle down, then I think that this is going to be a bit of a problem for him. because um you

Carter 40:52

you know you can't just run around screaming that it's going to get worse it's going to get worse and then it doesn't get worse um so

Carter 41:00

so i mean on the other hand he gets to run away from it relatively quickly right so maybe his calculation is ah you know this is fine i get to run away from it if it doesn't actually happen and so i'll just run away if it doesn't actually happen.

Zain 41:17

Carter, I'm going to start with you for our next one. Fine, fabulous or fucked as Aaron O'Toole tries to bridge the two halves of his party, tries to pick a lane, tries to bring them over, tries to save his leadership. His strategy on allowing a free vote on the issue of banning conversion therapy. Now, a vote was never ultimately required to be recorded, but the strategy to allow for that free vote, perhaps knowing what I just said, that a vote would not be required. Fine, fabulous or fucked in your mind from the perspective of O'Toole's strategy here and all he's got going on for him right now?

Carter 41:51

I think it's pretty fucked. I think that it's, you

Carter 41:55

know, it's a hit he didn't need to take, you know, especially with the play that they made to make sure there wasn't a vote required, which I believe came from conservative leadership as well as the liberal leadership. like they were able to make the the house

Carter 42:10

house work together to ensure

Carter 42:12

ensure there was no vote required so if

Carter 42:14

if there's no vote going to be required then what the fuck were you doing um

Carter 42:18

um why take the hit of i'm going to give a free vote to my members unless in some fashion it's a dog whistle to your own members and if it's a dog whistle to your members and it's pretty fucked like you didn't sense

Zain 42:29

sense that like he's trying to be too cute by half by saying well we'll let you have a free vote but i'll never let it get to a vote so you can have your own thinking you could have voted freely but the The public will never know because it'll be a unanimous pass, so to speak. I'm

Carter 42:41

I'm sorry, Hussain. Thanks for letting me clarify. I mean, the members of the party. OK,

Carter 42:47

We were prepared to do a free vote because we know this issue matters to you. Right. And there's a fundraising letter that goes out and says not one conservative voted for. I don't know. Fuck. I'm not writing these things. But it's just it's kind of gross to me that it's happened this way.

Zain 43:03

Corey, same question to you. his strategy on allowing the free vote on the conversion therapy ban once again this is the second time he's done it right he did it with the uh in june with that with that second uh reading fine fabulous or fucked in your mind with the o'toole strategy here i

Corey 43:17

think it's fine um he is uh he is finding a way to walk a tightrope i mean in many ways where

Corey 43:25

where it's challenging and where i think was was this all necessary was some of the steps beforehand because it really looked like perhaps the conservatives were going to vote a different way or at least some of them would and And then, you know, this story came and perhaps that was him managing expectations and coming back and making people's heads twist and saying, oh, I didn't think that about the conservative party. Unclear to me, but obviously to state the most self-evident fact in the world, he's dealing with internal pressures with his party and that he managed to get anything to

Corey 43:53

to unanimity is pretty amazing. Right. So certainly it shows that he hasn't entirely lost control of that organization. And while it might be too clever by half, it might be too weird, like all of the steps that were around there, at the end of the day, the

Corey 44:09

the conservatives did not stop this. They don't get another kind of strike against them for people who are looking at it through a social lens. And he's managed to hold his party together, at least for now.

Zain 44:20

Corey, I'll ask the natural extension of the answer you just gave. When you take stock of at least a public war that you're seeing O'Toole fight to keep his job, how do you think he's doing?

Corey 44:31

don't know. I mean, I go back and forth a lot depending on which columnist I've just read, with which leaks, right? But he doesn't seem to be doing that badly. And certainly those few pieces that we have of sort of external stimulus are mixed, because of course, you had a senator stand up against you, and then you had them not kicked out of the Conservative Senate caucus, even though you kicked them out of the Conservative caucus writ large. But then you see things like unanimous votes, and you see that they've been largely buttoned down and largely disciplined, and you've had people come to the support of the leader. And I

Corey 45:10

generally speaking, he's doing hard to

Corey 45:13

to say for sure from the outside. And like, I don't have any inside intel on this here, but he seems to be doing okay. Right?

Corey 45:21

Right? At this point, Andrew Scheer, it was already lost for him. I don't think that we're saying that.

Corey 45:25

that. No, he was down

Zain 45:25

down and out. There was a small micro campaign started by some insiders, and a couple weeks later, he was done. It was very quick, very swift. It's clearly not the case here, Carter, that, you know, at least for O'Toole's enemies within the party, they haven't ousted him yet. And it seems like they may not between now and the end of the year. I might ask you that same question, but maybe tag on a cousin of it, which is we've seen a version of this movie so many times. What is kind of the next scene in this movie or what's the next act in this movie that if you are whispering in O'Toole's ear that he should be aware of? It kind of seems like, you know, the waters are not very aggressive right now, but there will be another chapter here. What do you think it will be for him?

Carter 46:07

The next thing is I think he's going to survive until the leadership review is required. I believe it's required within the first year after losing an election. So that leadership convention

Carter 46:17

convention becomes the next most important thing, because I think that to Corey's point, I think he survived this. I think that he's gotten through this moment and he's

Carter 46:25

he's now, you know, can

Carter 46:28

can he survive the leadership review? And keep in mind that surviving the leadership review is

Carter 46:34

difficult. I mean, what's

Carter 46:35

what's the number, right?

Carter 46:37

right? It's always what's the number. Since Joe Clark got 66% in 1980, or was it 81? But in the early 80s, that

Carter 46:48

that number now has been up in the air,

Carter 46:51

right? Joe Clark has given us essentially it's not 50% plus one. Therefore, it must be some

Carter 46:57

some number above that. But that number has never really been defined, especially when you see leaders like Ed Stelmack and Ellison Redford, both going out after 78s. um so frankly if i think that if he can get himself into the high 70s and or low 80s he'll be fine um but that means he has to start organizing because the delegates have to come from across the country um

Carter 47:22

if it's going to be virtual we've already had a conversation about virtual versus in person we think that if it's in person he'll be more i think he'll be more more successful, as Jason Kenney was just more successful in person here in his own AGM process. Now, it wasn't a leadership, but everybody

Carter 47:39

everybody was talking about how the knives were going to come out, and the knives stayed in their sheaths. So I think that this is where we are.

Zain 47:47

I mean, a great location for an AGM, should the Conservatives be looking for it, Abbotsford. I hear it's beautiful any time of year. Corey, our next one, let's move to Alberta. Carter Carter mentioned Kenney. Let's talk about Jason Kenney. Fine, fabulous, or fucked, a new poll saying that 18% of Albertans who responded to this poll would vote for Brian Jean as the next premier of this province if there was an Alberta provincial election. 15% would choose Jason Kenney. 51% would not vote for the UCP at all. We've talked about Jason Kenney's dynamic of, of, you know, is it Jason Kenney versus some idealized version of perfect? Now we've got Gene on the quote-unquote polling ballot, if I can call it that. So maybe I'll ask you this question, Corey. For Jason Kenney, for Jason Kenney and his desire to keep leadership, a poll like this, fine, fabulous, or fucked?

Corey 48:42

Well, let's start by saying that the poll itself was a little fucked. And I'm usually a huge fan of Leger, so I don't say that. Yeah, do you want to jump into this?

Zain 48:49

this? I wanted to

Zain 48:49

get into this too. So yeah, Yeah. Do you want to start with some comments on that?

Corey 48:52

Yeah. So which potential UCP leadership candidate would you be most likely to vote for in the next Alberta provincial election? You had Brian Jean at 18 percent, Jason Kenney, 15 percent, Daniel Smith, 11 percent, Lila here, 3 percent, Derek Filderbrandt, 2 percent. I would not vote for the UCP, 51 percent. So interesting question. But, you know, a great example of kind of first past the post here, too, because another way to read that poll is only 15 percent of Albertans would vote for Jason Kenney. But because, you know, in a way, Daniel Smith split the vote, you know, Brian Jean, Jason Kenney, and Daniel Smith are so clustered at the top that I actually think that it's fine for Jason Kenney that this poll came out this way. Because in many ways, it looks like he's right there, just a point or two off Brian Jean. Anybody can say, well, you know, margin of error, all of the things you always hear in the poll that

Corey 49:43

you don't have. And

Corey 49:45

honestly, it kind of makes it look like Jason Kenney might have a great chance. It's still being the most popular leader here. If Danielle Smith was not on there, you might have had a poll where it was Brian Jean, 30%, Jason Kenney, 15%, which may have been lethal for Jason Kenney. So in terms of like universe

Corey 50:03

universe of outcomes here, not so bad for Jason Kenney.

Zain 50:07

Carter, same question for you. Fine, fabulous, or fucked with the lens of Jason Kenney? At least for now. We might move to a different lens in a second.

Carter 50:13

I think he's fine. Corey's made a good point about the poll. poll uh let me just break down what would have been a better way of doing it if lege is listening um ask the question if brian gene were the leader if uh jason kenney were the leader if danielle smith were the leader how likely would you be able to vote for you know for

Carter 50:31

for the ucd that's

Corey 50:33

you would normally see that phrasing right like this is a weird phrasing it's

Carter 50:36

it's it does fuck it up quite a bit and

Carter 50:39

and jason kenney winds up coming out ahead um just by it being uh not decisive right they you know if if it because we don't actually know like daniel smith may be ahead of jason kenney and ahead to head but it's just behind him uh

Carter 50:54

uh when you split it all out like we don't actually know anything um i'd love to see an actual poll that was properly done on this question because this one just was not so right now though for jason kenney he he survives it and he gets to to continue on um i know that you

Carter 51:15

you know he's out bellowing about how good the economy is uh which is interesting i'm not sure if i was still unemployed and and uh you know looking

Carter 51:24

at my oil and gas industry whether or not you

Carter 51:28

you know i hadn't been brought back to my job if i'd be you know responding positively to him screaming about how good the economy is but you

Carter 51:36

you know it's a it's

Carter 51:37

it's a good economy and it's a better step forward than it was before So they think that this economy is going to rebound super fast. And by March and then by 2023, Jason

Carter 51:48

Jason Kenney is going to still remain in the premier's chair, which is a really interesting way of thinking. thinking.

Zain 51:55

Carter, can I ask you a follow up on your your Kenny cheerleading on the economy question? It's you bring up a fascinating point. What would your advice to him have been? Would you would you have advised that he have some chill on the economy? And I don't mean like a chilling effect, but I mean, like the Gen Z version of have chill on when you're talking about the the economy heating up, like, you know, be confident? Or do you would you have suggested his very boisterous, positive, like fire breathing, it's back, we're back, we're going to lead the country approach that he has right now. What do you think would be the most effective for his political fortunes? I see you heading towards perhaps the version that he's not doing right now, but perhaps justified for me a bit.

Carter 52:40

Step one done. The problem with mission accomplished is the mission accomplished doesn't look particularly good at this particular moment. I think it's still 9.5% unemployment

Carter 52:49

unemployment in Alberta. You know, so that's one out of every 10 Albertans looking for work. That's a big number. That's a big number of people who are currently being left behind and a large number of those people may be left behind for longer. Because of course, the industries that are coming back may not be the ones that they had left. So you can currently get a job in retail. Good. Lots of people need retail jobs. I'm pleased that it's coming back. But if you were a former oil and gas geologist, and now you're being asked to be a retail specialist at the Gap, you know, you're not thinking that's necessarily a step forward for you. So I would have said this is step one. This is step one, step two, three, Three and four are being planned right now by the caucus and the government, and we are on track. That's the only thing that we can say right now, because we still see you, we still hear you, and we are still advocating for you.

Zain 53:46

Corey, you know, I've heard him speak recently, like an eight-minute monologue that he just goes on and on. This is happening, this is happening, this is happening. We're going to lead the country here, enthusiastic, fire-breathing, boisterous. uh you know we've gotten over covid alberta's on the rise would you tell him to stick in that lane that he's in rinse and repeat or would you say go with carter's approach you know maybe have a bit of chill and then set expectations properly which one would you suggest to best help and support his uh his his leadership no

Corey 54:22

no he's doing the right thing but he's got to be careful he doesn't go too far on it look at a certain point you need to make your own weather when it comes to the economy and economic confidence because so much of it is psychological and you need to not feel like you're losing

Corey 54:34

losing all of the time and so there is a certain boosterism that's required in the job of a premier in the job of a mayor in the job of a prime minister that's just that's the reality right and if there's one thing we know it's that there's a strong correlation between economic confidence and government support or as has been put more eloquently by carville it's the economy stupid right so a government does need to create a sense of economic confidence but let's Let's put all of that aside for a moment, because there's still a reason Jason Kenney would want to do that, even if it wasn't entirely as I just described. And that's that he's got a leadership review coming up in a couple of months. And we've talked about the need he has to build a hero narrative, to build this idea of I am Jason Kenney, who had to go through all of these rough times, I had to take over after this, you know, socialist horde that, you know, the hordes, H-O-R-D-E-S, somebody was saying my pronunciation of that was somewhat imprecise last week on the the zoo and milk milk m

Zain 55:29

yeah okay go ahead

Corey 55:31

hero narrative right uh i had this bad situation i was making things better covid came now we're going to lead the country because of my brilliant economic moves true or not this is something that he'll have to do as a leader if he wants to survive right give people the idea that yeah we didn't always like them but we're coming out of this ahead i mean that's an important part of the jason kenney story going into to the leadership review in 2022 and the election in 2023.

Zain 55:58

Carter, what do you think the danger is then if he keeps going now? Like, walk me through the perils of this path that he's on right now. Corey says you can't go over the top, but take me to the natural conclusion of where he might end up regardless in this particular lane he's picked on economy. Because what it's clearly trying to do, and it's very clear to political observers, is that the economy's coming back. He's trying to obviously position him being a big part of it. That because of me, the economy is coming back. I'm laying out some very distilled elemental pieces. But that's ultimately what he wants people to think is, here's the facts. Here's my association with the facts. And if that's his goal, what do you kind of think this strategy might lead him to?

Carter 56:37

The challenge with this strategy is that we have a relatively significant jobless recovery. You know, the jobs that are coming in, I mentioned retail before, but let's throw in tech. Tech jobs are great if you're tech trained, if you're ready to go into a tech job. If you're not ready to go into a tech job, then tech jobs aren't great. Right now, a significant part of our downturn was because of the downturn of oil and gas. We were hit by the double whammy, right? Right. The downturn in oil and gas starting in 2014 and then being hit with the pandemic starting in 2019, 2020. So that that leads us to twice, two times down. Right. What appears to be picking up is the pandemic losses. Great. But that doesn't address the oil and gas losses. Oil and gas is a great price. We shipped more barrels of oil last month than we've ever shipped before. Fantastic. The provincial treasury is moving from $20 billion in deficits to $2 and $3 billion in deficits. This is unprecedented shifting since we lost natural gas in 2007. We can do a whole episode on natural gas surpluses versus heavy oil surpluses, which this could be the very first time that we've seen. This is the most heavy oil royalties we've ever seen. And that's fantastic. but heavy

Carter 57:56

heavy oil doesn't require the same amount of employment to take out of the ground as it does to build the plant and once you've built the plant it's kind of all the construction jobs are gone that's

Carter 58:07

that's done now it's just maintenance and making sure that you're ramped up to 100 percent and

Carter 58:11

and that doesn't require the same level of employment but

Carter 58:14

but i don't think anybody's going to be investing in the next you know the next oil sand plant um for all kinds of reasons some of of them good and some of them bad. But nonetheless, if you have a jobless recovery, and

Carter 58:28

and the jobs that don't come back are the jobs of the people that really want to support you, which

Carter 58:33

which is the second part of this, then I think you really could be in trouble if you're Jason Kenney.

Zain 58:39

Let's move it on to our last one in this segment. Guys, we're sticking with Alberta Carter. You mentioned oil and gas, so I want to start with you on this one.

Zain 58:46

The province of Alberta, Jason Jason Kenney and his government are using and extrapolating from the Allen Report to attack environmental groups, saying, quote, the report confirms the existence of well-funded, decade-long campaigns based on misinformation that have impacted the lives and livelihoods of Albertans. Now, of course, the Allen Report has kind of no, has not gone that far to make that conclusion that the government is extrapolating. In fact, one would argue isn't even close to the argument that Jason Kenney and his environment minister are making. But as it relates to political strategy, that's what we do on the show, Carter, for Jason Kenney to pick this fight, which is now not just in the public consciousness, but also being taken to the courts. Fine, fabulous or fucked? Judge the political strategy here. Fine, fabulous or fucked in your mind, Carter? it's

Carter 59:32

it's fucked i mean um we made tremendous fun and we had a great time picking on steve allen and this report when it wasn't published and now that it's published it's

Carter 59:43

it's not much of a it's not a bad report it's not something that that that picked up the propaganda of the day and found all of these reasons why you know we're being screwed over by these foreign environmentalists the way the way

Carter 59:57

way that Sonia Savage and Jason Kenney want us to believe. Instead, it came back with, I think, reasonable reach, understanding, and told the story without much torque on it at all. And now the government's picking up on it and torquing it completely. The government is a propaganda machine. And the problem with propaganda is it only works if you're telling people what they want to believe. And yes, this is what some people in Alberta want to believe, but I do not believe it is what most people want to believe. Alberta is growing up in front of our eyes, and there are large chunks of the population

Carter 1:00:47

that don't identify with what Jason Kenney is trying to sell us. So if

Carter 1:00:52

if you don't have buyers, This is going to be a very long, a very hard sell. And I think that Jason Kenney is really putting himself in a fucked position in the long run.

Zain 1:01:01

Corey, same question to you. Fine, fabulous or fucked on the political strategy of Kenney and his his government extrapolating from the Allen report and making these claims and continuing to pick that fight with those with those groups. I

Corey 1:01:14

I think it's fucked. I mean, this is a classic example of a government trying to take an L and turning it into a W, and I just don't see it happening. There's just too many people who have actually read the Allen Report. You know, in some ways, the parallel is like the Mueller Report. And, you know, when there was sort of this view of it that was presented to Congress that was well filtered by Barr, right? And all of a sudden, it looked like maybe the conclusions were very different. Big difference here, we've

Corey 1:01:43

we've all read the Mueller report, you know, in this analogy. We've all read the Allen report. We know exactly what it says. The reporters know exactly what it says. And the environmental groups that are being disparaged know exactly what it says, which is why Jason Kenney now finds himself in a bit of legal hazard as of this week. It was reported on, right? People saying, well, we're going to sue you on the basis of this report, of this quasi-judicial inquiry and its findings, and what you're now saying. So, you know, I just don't understand what the long game is when you take an approach like that. Is it really just to try to manage a narrower

Corey 1:02:20

narrower and narrower base of people who don't know what the Allen Report said? Because it seems to me that the risk of backfire here is pretty big. You know, there's this Streisand effect we've talked about. By drawing attention to it, you may make it worse for yourself because all of a sudden you get sued. All of a sudden it's on the front pages of the newspaper that you had to either back down or you lost your lawsuit. And that's not going to do you any favors. So it's

Corey 1:02:46

it's tough. You know, ego doesn't want to allow it. Take the L, move on. Stop running this line, because this line was not substantiated, even in the shallowest sense.

Zain 1:02:57

Carter, I want to actually ask you some of the insights Corey brought on the table, which is what do you think the government was trying to do here? We've talked about their patterns of trying to win the day. Corey, you talked about trying to turn an L into a W. Carter, anything to add to that mix from your experience or how you read this in terms of what they may have thought the strategic play was here? Because I tried to smoke out fine or fabulous from either of you in these answers. I didn't get it. I'm also with you. This was fucked. It's pretty clearly fucked. blocked but explain to me if you can or if you have any thoughts in terms of what you think the attempt here was carter to go down this path well

Carter 1:03:33

well i think that how

Carter 1:03:35

how about if we just assume this how about if we assume that this isn't actually a strategic thing at all this is just simply an ideological thing this is actually what they believe this is what they believed when they came into the office and this is what they believe as they move forward they're unable to move from from their ideological positioning, despite

Carter 1:03:54

despite the evidence that is being presented to them? What if they've just had a backfire effect where they were presented by different evidence, it reinforced their pre-existing positioning, and they have the backfire effect happening to them, and this is them expressing that natural result that, no, no, this is still the thing that we always believed that it was. You know, the flat earth are being presented with evidence that the earth is round and saying well i have to find a reason why this evidence is false um i think that that's all this is this you know this is jason kenney as the flat earther we'll

Zain 1:04:31

we'll leave that segment there we'll move it on to our over under our lightning round quite the quite the last phrase we're just gonna let you just leave let me

Carter 1:04:39

me go right through that nice you

Zain 1:04:40

you know what i'll see if you can add more controversy to the mix stephen carter overrated or underrated maxime bernier keeps Keeps his leadership of the People's Party of Canada with a 96% on his leadership review. Overrated or underrated in your mind that Mr. Bernier is still the leader of the PPC?

Carter 1:04:58

I think it's underrated. I mean, 96 obviously becomes the number for O'Toole.

Carter 1:05:04

You know, if he doesn't get to 96 like Bernier, I mean, can he even stay? No,

Carter 1:05:08

No, of course it's overrated, Zane, you monkey. This is just totally horrible. This is terrible. This is the worst. First,

Carter 1:05:16

Bernier is turning into a fucking lunatic, and his people love the lunatic. Is this good on any level for Canadian politics? Nope, not at all.

Zain 1:05:26

Corey, overrated, underrated, 96% for one Maxime Bernier in his leadership review of the PPC.

Corey 1:05:32

Yeah, 96% of members believe he's the leader, but I'm not convinced. I saw a Facebook post that said he wasn't, and I'm going to go with that. My aunt forwarded it to me.

Zain 1:05:41

Yeah, I got the same message on WhatsApp. It's a lot of spelling errors, a lot of exclamation marks, a lot of bold text in areas where

Zain 1:05:49

didn't belong. Corey, I'm going to start with you on our next one. Overrated or underrated, a group of young Canadians has launched a court challenge to lower Canada's minimum age for voting in federal elections. They're saying that the Canada Elections Act, which bars Canadians under 18 from voting in federal elections, is unconstitutional. This movement we've seen before, this particular sort of wave of it, from your perspective in this particular time where they're arguing that the policies that our leaders are debating and implementing will affect their futures disproportionately, overrated or underrated this movement to lower the voting age as it stands in a 2021 world in your mind? You

Corey 1:06:27

You know, I watch

Corey 1:06:29

watch this conversation with interest, right? The idea of where should the voting age be? And, you know, we've all, and I say we've all, but most of the world has gravitated to some range between the age of 16 and 21, and only very few nations on either 16 or 21. Most seem to have just sort of floated to 18 as a bit of a basis here. And that's always been interesting to me. There's nothing magical that happens to you as a human being when you turn 18, except we've agreed this is the age when you can enter into contracts. So that seems like a pretty natural trigger for also being allowed to vote. And in many ways, a vote is a bit like a contract, right? That's one way to look at it. But when you think about it from a physiological point of view, maybe 25 would be a better age, right? Because all of a sudden, you know, that's when you're done fully developing.

Corey 1:07:16

But maybe that's not a great indicator, because on the other end, you start to degrade at a certain point. So maybe we need a maximum voting age at this point. Maybe on the younger side, it should be more about interest and capacity. But then how do you measure that? And how do you allow somebody to do that? Right? I just find it a fascinating conversation. I often wonder, is

Corey 1:07:33

is age the wrong metric? Like, should we really be determining based on age? Because people do move

Corey 1:07:38

move forward at different levels.

Corey 1:07:43

If it's not, is there something that couldn't be absolutely gamed by a party in power? I'm not convinced about that. At the end of the day, a voting age is a somewhat arbitrary choice. And, you know, 18 doesn't seem any more or less arbitrary than 16 to me, frankly. uh so i i just it's not a huge issue for me i understand if you're 16 and you want to contribute why you might feel very passionate about that uh you know as i as i round into my 40s here it's obviously something that is just more of an academic argument for me um but

Corey 1:08:14

but you know i i've known people who are much younger than 16 who i think are brilliant and should be able to determine the future of this country and i've known people who are much older than 18 who

Corey 1:08:24

who i think are idiots And it terrifies me that they get the same number of votes that I do. And that

Zain 1:08:28

that they have a podcast. It's really annoying that some of those people get a podcast. I guess

Corey 1:08:34

at the end of it all, you

Corey 1:08:37

just have to make choices in a government. And you have to make them in a way that they're not particularly gameable. And so, you know, 18, 16, whatever, it's only two

Zain 1:08:45

two years. Carter, my suggestion is one small, sizable area of the country experiments with the lower voting age. And like a place that I just think is easy to get to, it's nice all year round, maybe like an Abbotsford. Abbotsford,

Carter 1:08:59

Abbotsford, British Columbia, yeah. Great

Zain 1:09:01

Great place. Overrated or underrated, Stephen Carter, this most recent movement in the 2021 world to lower the voting age in Canada.

Carter 1:09:11

Overrated. I mean, I think that there

Carter 1:09:14

there are a number of good cases to make at 16. You're still in high school, which enables a relatively easy frame to reach people. And, you know, you can be encouraged to vote relatively easy. And there's an argument to be made that once you've voted once, you will vote more frequently.

Carter 1:09:32

It's a pretty good argument. Can I make a counter

Corey 1:09:34

counter argument right now? Sure. Once you don't vote once, you're more likely to not vote as well.

Carter 1:09:39

Yeah, fine. Makes sense. I mean, but the

Carter 1:09:42

the truth is the younger people don't vote with any, you know, They are the least likely people to vote. This is something that people are trying to fix

Carter 1:09:53

fix by moving the voting age. And I just think that that's the wrong solution to this particular problem. The age of majority, like it or loathe it, is 18 years old. It is the age that we have arbitrarily, I guess, determined that you're going to be behaving like an adult. And I do think it actually is tied to something, Corey. I'll just add this. I do think it is mostly tied to graduating high school or that time in life when you would be graduating high school. I know that you graduated when you were 13. We were able to, you know, grab you and pull you onto the podcast at that time. It wasn't even a podcast back

Carter 1:10:29

Well, it was kind of. I mean, we called

Zain 1:10:31

called it. It was called a Zoom cast back then. Yes, it was.

Carter 1:10:35

was pretty great. But bringing you on to that, I mean, you

Carter 1:10:38

you were ready to vote. But, you know, Zane's how old now and he's still not ready to vote. so you know that's it's hurt self

Corey 1:10:45

self-correcting problem with zane though he never manages to find his way to the yeah

Carter 1:10:49

yeah he's too too lazy to actually get there it's very upsetting for everyone but it's fun done

Zain 1:10:55

they're good okay uh carter i'm gonna i'm gonna go back to you on this next one overrated or underrated canada adding 145 000 jobs in november getting us very very close back to pre-pandemic uh levels for this government the federal government overrated or underrated this news coming on Friday in your mind?

Carter 1:11:15

Well, I think that it is about properly rated for the federal government. They took a little bit of a victory lap and I think that it is big news. It was an unexpected jump and it is making a significant difference in the unemployment rate nationally. I don't think it's as significant in Alberta because it hasn't made that same impact. But this

Carter 1:11:38

this is good. This is great news. I think everybody, you know, we all should be celebrating more work. But again, I'm still looking at getting a little bit deeper dive into what segments are being revitalized and which segments aren't, because there are certainly better

Carter 1:11:55

better segments of the employment spectrum that we want to see rebounding in order to get average income up across the country.

Zain 1:12:05

Corey, 150K-ish jobs back in November, overrated, underrated in your mind for the federal liberals?

Corey 1:12:11

Overrated. It's not as though there's an election imminent right now. And live by those numbers, die by those numbers. They can be pretty noisy month to month. And it's better to look back at them and observe them over many years than say, hey, it's Friday. And so this is how the economy is.

Zain 1:12:29

I want to get this last topic on the agenda for tonight's show. But I want to mention, I want to spend a considerable amount of time on it going forward. What's happening in the States with the American Supreme Court ready to or on the verge, one might say, of overturning Roe v. Wade? Corey, from your perspective in terms of what this might mean to just democracy watchers everywhere, what it might have in terms of implications for Canada, I'm going to frame it in our classic overrated, underrated way. But any thoughts you might have as we, you know, maybe do a more deeper dive later on this week or next? The question, overrated, underrated, the implications for broader democracy and human rights conversations in this country?

Zain 1:13:10

In this country? Well,

Corey 1:13:12

Well, I don't know. I mean, there's two schools of thought. One is that something that happens in the United States becomes popular here with some leg, right? You know, Barack Obama in 2008, Justin Trudeau in 2015, that kind of vibe. So you might say if abortion rights go down in the United States, there's reason to believe they could go down here. Although, because in both cases, both in the United States and Canada, it was the courts that brought in the right to an abortion. Canada much later than the United States, by

Corey 1:13:42

way. It's somewhat hard to believe that we would end up in the same circumstance here because our court has not been gamed the way the American court has over the years. And like the years, right? This goes way back. There was belief by Republicans that Roe v. Wade would be overturned in 89 or 90, I can't remember the year. But we've

Corey 1:14:04

we've not followed that track in many, many senses here. The other thing is it could in many ways enshrine support for abortion because you're going to see, thanks to trigger laws that are on the books, and I believe 22 states in the United States, if Roe v. Wade goes down, abortion is illegal like the

Corey 1:14:20

the next day in those states. multiple

Zain 1:14:22

multiple places at very like many

Zain 1:14:25

of how many weeks whatever like yeah

Corey 1:14:27

yeah exactly and you know it could be you know anything over 15 weeks is not allowed could be anything over 12 could be nine whatever yeah as much of a blanket yeah nothing like an effect of nothing right and

Corey 1:14:37

and so um you are going to get a lot of human misery stories coming out of that and it could be a cautionary tale for canadians um as as we sort of look south of the border as as unfortunately America has become in many, many cases right now. So tough to say, but obviously something to watch carefully. And, you know, people will be affected by this. People will be affected dramatically. And I wonder how many Americans are thinking about it in too abstract of terms right now, because it's about to become very non-abstract for a lot of people, a lot of people's families, a lot of people's friends.

Zain 1:15:11

Carter, same question to you. I know we wanted to spend more time on it, and we will, but But Roe v. Wade, as it relates to perhaps implications here in Canada, overrated, underrated in your mind?

Carter 1:15:20

I think it's underrated. I think it's underrated for a couple of reasons. First of all, I mean, I don't want to predict a backlash because it makes me nervous in the States. I never know what's going to happen down there. But about 65% of Americans don't want this decision to go away. They don't want to lose Roe v. Wade. So this is actually probably going to be a pretty unpopular decision. And it could, in fact, spike up Democratic support for 2022, which would be very helpful for Biden and, of course, very helpful for the Democrats and arguably, I would suggest, for the United States in general. I'm not hoping for this, though. I think that this will hurt many women's lives and more than we are perhaps willing to understand. understand. This is one of those still secret things that happens to people that we don't talk about and we pretend doesn't exist. We all pretend like we don't know anybody that's been in this situation. We all do know someone. We just may not know the specifics of it.

Carter 1:16:23

And watching this get overturned, watching the way that it has happened, watching

Carter 1:16:28

watching the defense of the Republicans of this particular situation and the single

Carter 1:16:32

single-mindedness of it, I'm more worried about the developing theocracy in the united states you know there has been also a number of people starting to rethink the the

Carter 1:16:44

the one nation under god type of comment and moving towards you

Carter 1:16:48

you know a one nation under a christian god and

Carter 1:16:51

and uh that's scary as hell um when we start to move towards one set of mores and one set of norms for a country like the united states and that is dictated by evangelical christian uh i get scared to shitless um and then you start throwing in the romanticism and religion almost religious fanaticism of the worshiping of the guns and i

Carter 1:17:15

i hope we do cover this in a future podcast with more depth because uh the u.s has scared me shitless right now

Zain 1:17:23

yeah we're gonna leave that there we'll definitely cover it in more depth we'll leave that That's episode there. That's a wrap on episode 957 of The Strategist. Make sure to tweet us at StrategistPod for our Going Nowhere contest to be revealed at the Holiday Spectacular episode. Tweet us at StrategistPod. Thank you to Flair Airlines. And that's a wrap of episode 957. No. What? What? What? What? Keep

Zain 1:17:47

No. They are our sponsor.

Carter 1:17:48

sponsor. Are they our sponsor? They're not. Nope. Great show, Zane. Great show. Leadership. My name is Zane Beljoo. With

Zain 1:17:54

With me, as always, Corey Hogan. I'm Stephen Carter, and we'll see you next time.

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