Episode 934: A tribute to Charles Grodin

Zain 0:02

This is The Strategist, episode 935. My name is Zain Velji. With me, as always, Stephen Carter, Corey Hogan. Guys, it is Thursday. How you doing?

Carter 0:11

I'm doing great. You know, it's Thursday night. You know how much I look forward to Thursday nights.

Carter 0:19

Well, because I get to be spending time with you guys, my two friends.

Corey 0:23

Corey, how you doing? Notice how he didn't say two of my friends. He said my two friends. i

Zain 0:29

what he told me but yes i have clued into it now uh that is just that's just sad now you make make me feel bad for making fun of you all these all these shows all these times

Zain 0:40

as well yeah exactly in the credits of the show uh

Zain 0:45

cory how are you doing your washington wizards are in the playoffs they

Corey 0:48

they clinched the playoffs how you know the spurs last time we were talking about the spurs not making the playoffs but they were i was prescient

Zain 0:54

prescient i was It was prescient. I knew they had a horrible first half against the Grizzlies. I had given up on their season a long time ago. I feel like they needed a bit of a reset with a lot of their talents. So, you know,

Corey 1:07

in it. Well, hop on the bandwagon, my friend. D.C. Rising. It's all happening.

Corey 1:12

mean we're going to the second round, buddy.

Zain 1:14

I'm ready. I'm ready for it. I am ready for the loser's life of the playoffs, which is the second round. Stephen Carter, I'm not going to ask you about Aussie football. Why not?

Zain 1:27

It's a big game tonight. He never does. Because you're going to offer it. Richmond

Carter 1:30

Richmond versus Richmond, it's a big night. You're

Zain 1:33

You're going to offer

Zain 1:34

offer it anyways. I

Carter 1:34

I got the Lions, if you're wondering. I think the Lions are going to take it.

Zain 1:38

Stephen Carter, were you surprised that you didn't get canceled because of the last episode where we discussed the sensitive issues of Israel and Palestine?

Carter 1:46

I've got to be honest. I went back and listened again because that's the level of ego that we present here at The Strategists. and uh i

Carter 1:53

i thought we walked the line we walked the line really well both cory and i sounded

Corey 1:57

sounded like get yourself canceled in your retrospective analysis of your analysis i always want

Zain 2:04

want to give him the opportunity i

Zain 2:05

i always want to give him the opportunity why cory do you save him when he's just ready to just roll out that rope i just

Corey 2:13

just don't know zane i just feel like the strategist doesn't have the same kind of equity built up yeah

Zain 2:18

yeah but uh renaming the podcast a conversation between two friends would do just as well i am sure it would do you

Carter 2:25

you know um i

Zain 2:26

i need to talk to you guys about something before we jump into the headlines um because i don't have much time about in the show about this and i've just come to mind uh steve allen has another extension on his report can you give me your quick 45 seconds each on the uh inquiry that has an extension and uh maybe also answer the question, at this point, should he just be using the crowdsourced document we have produced for him? Not we, you, as the listeners, have produced for him at this point. Carter, jump in, and then Corey, let's get a take on both of these before we jump into the headlines.

Carter 3:01

I mean, absolutely. The document that has been created by the Strategist podcast listeners is the best document. As always, our listeners come through with everything that is needed, and they did it in a timely fashion um they only took one delay uh and made it all happen i mean we did repost it with the second or i guess third delay how many delays has this been um it's at least two too many four i

Zain 3:26

i think this is four four

Carter 3:27

four oh my god i put three i'm so embarrassed this is you know it's just embarrassing and uh i'm really glad that we've got loyal podcast listeners who who can complete a Google Doc faster than Steve Allen can complete an inquiry.

Zain 3:41

Corey, should he be just referring to the Google Doc at this point?

Corey 3:45

I think our listeners could have done better. They didn't try very hard. They could have tried more.

Corey 3:52

And on top of that, I'm just disappointed in them generally about most of the things going on in their lives. Hey, are we going to actually talk about what the Steve Allen report is for anybody who hasn't been subjected to this in the province of Alberta? Everyone

Zain 4:03

Everyone should be subjected to this in the entire world. Corey, do you want to add some context?

Corey 4:08

The Steve Allen report is the report into un-Alberta activities, I think technically called like the anti-oil campaign inquiry, where a prominent Calgarian named Steve Allen was commissioned to look into foreign sources of funding that were coming into Alberta to talk shit about the oil sands. And this has now been going on for, what, two years? Two

Carter 4:32

Two years, yeah. Yeah,

Corey 4:32

Yeah, two years this commission's been going, or this inquiry's been going, and nothing to show for it. Nothing to show for it except for a couple of documents that were kind of teased out to us that have a bunch of climate denialism and crazy copy-pasted conspiracy theories. So not looking good right now. And getting into the fourth delay, the excuse given was because they were sued. So

Corey 4:53

So you know you're always in great stead when that's happening here. here but uh you know be easy on steve allen the creative process takes time if you're going to find a nice story to tell that you've pulled out of thin air you

Corey 5:11

got to wait until the muse hits yeah

Zain 5:13

yeah no uh the trailer looked like a dumpster fire i can't wait to see uh the movie i i'm i'm looking forward to whenever this gets produced in

Corey 5:21

in the year 2029 or

Zain 5:23

or sonic the the hedgehog it's got you

Zain 5:24

you know god sonic was actually pretty good cats looked horrible from the trailer it looked like it was insane cats has a this this the the initial documents of the inquiry had a very cats like feel i i yeah

Carter 5:36

yeah no i i think this is definitely the cats of inquiries uh

Carter 5:39

uh so it'll be good let's

Zain 5:41

let's move it on to our headlines steven carter i always like to go to you first for our headlines because i know you're not going to fill time waste space do do any of that. This first headline comes to us from AP. Five Oregon counties vote to leave the state. They want to create a new state, a greater Idaho. So, Carter, once again, they want to leave Oregon. They want to create greater Idaho. On Tuesday, voters in five counties in eastern Oregon urged county officials to begin to promote border relocation and joining Idaho. While President Biden defeated former President Donald Trump statewide in last fall's election, five Five counties heavily favor Trump. The group Move Oregon's Borders for a Greater Idaho, that is actually the advocacy group's name, very literal, is behind the effort. In addition to rural eastern Oregon, the plan Greater Idaho would also encompass large swaths of northeastern California. Just FYI, they also want to take some parts of California. Just throwing it in there. Carter, what do you think of this? Does this seem right? Does it seem about time that these five counties leave and just kind of decide their own future, so to speak? Which might be a theme of the show in some ways.

Carter 6:51

Zane, you ever been to Idaho?

Carter 6:53

I have not been to Idaho, no. Well, I can get behind a greater Idaho, because every time I go to Idaho, I drive straight into Washington.

Carter 7:04

I can understand why they want

Zain 7:05

greater... That's not very nice. That's good. That's good. That's what we call wordplay, which also might be a theme of the show. There you go.

Carter 7:12

leaving that one right there Corey would

Zain 7:14

would you first of all I have to ask you are you also a fan of a greater Idaho

Corey 7:21

don't know if I've ever been to Idaho in Alberta a lot of our TV stations come from Idaho Spokane, Coeur d'Alene well

Carter 7:27

well Spokane's in Washington oh that's

Carter 7:30

that's true Coeur d'Alene, Idaho that's

Carter 7:32

right across the that's when people see people want to get right out of Idaho go straight to Spokane

Carter 7:37

I know because I've been there and I've also been to Sandpoint, Boise I've been to all these places, and I can assure you, Corey, you're not missing much. There is the place with the roller coaster, though. There is a theme park with a roller coaster and a water park.

Corey 7:53

Yeah, thanks for your travel tips here. To your questions, Abe. This is good.

Zain 7:57

I think this is what our listeners

Corey 7:58

listeners should do. No, this is great. Great stuff.

Corey 8:00

So five out of 36 counties in Oregon have voted to secede from Oregon and join Idaho. That's pretty funny. funny although i think it's sort of telling that uh this is the state of america right now where it's i just don't want to be near you or with you if i disagree with you and so as much as we can laugh about this it's a bit of a canary in the coal mine too um i just think it's a bit wild and how long until they start turning on those uppity liberals in boise right i mean like

Corey 8:29

this this doesn't conclude with greater idaho this concludes with the you know uh rural idaho seceding from the cities of Idaho. So it's unfortunate. But it's like the great sort by other means, right? I don't want to be in a Democratic state. I want to be in a Republican state. And nobody's going to entertain this. The state house is run by Democrats in Oregon. You

Zain 8:56

You mean no one's going to entertain them just jumping into Idaho and also taking parts of California alongside? Can

Corey 9:01

Can I tell you why it actually might, like, it's not going to happen this time, not in this context, but isn't it a little dangerous? Because imagine if you're in a state that's more of a swing, well, not a swing state, that wouldn't be a great example, but one where you're actually kind of somewhat not

Corey 9:16

not necessarily sure you've got a mortal lock on it. Maybe you wouldn't mind saying goodbye to some of those rural areas if you're a Democrat. just from a

Zain 9:22

a straight political yeah yeah and

Corey 9:24

you know what i just think it's unfortunate that this is this is how uh we're now talking about things in the united states they've really they've really kind of their pants have dropped and they've fallen on their faces and it's funny to point and laugh but at a certain point you're like oh damn somebody should call the cops speaking

Zain 9:43

speaking of speaking of calling the cops uh this next act was was almost criminal this one comes to us from the the recount. Vaccination. New York mayor snacks on fries while announcing offers for free food with vaccine. Now, we are a audio based show, but I will encourage everyone and anyone listening to this podcast. You can hate me later to find this clip of New York Mayor Bill de Blasio eating fries and having a burger from Shake Shack, which, by the way, Shake Shack has teamed up with de Blasio's office to get more New Yorkers vaccinated by offering them free vouchers with a burger or sandwich. It is the most disturbing video of a person eating fast food, which, by the way, another common theme of our show. Stephen Carter, have you seen this video of the incredibly unpopular Mayor de Blasio trying to sell burgers and fries vis-a-vis vaccine and or vice versa? I

Carter 10:40

I cannot believe I've missed it. I cannot believe that I've missed watching Bill eat fries. This This is highly upsetting for me, but isn't

Carter 10:48

isn't he term-limited? Isn't this the problem with term limits? At some point, you just reach a don't-give-a-fuck level, and you can eat French fries while your opposition is all just doing whatever the hell they want, and you just go

Carter 11:00

go for it, man. I'm not doing anything. You can't get me out of here. Did you

Zain 11:03

you just turn this into a nor-terms-limit advocacy? You're damn right I did.

Zain 11:08

damn right I did.

Zain 11:09

Corey, don't fail me on this. This was viral for all the wrong reasons. Please tell me you have seen this. Oh,

Corey 11:15

Oh, yeah, I have. And did you know that earlier this week he also had a news conference where he was wearing a Nets jersey?

Zain 11:20

jersey? Oh, God, it was terrible. It was so bad. It's like he

Corey 11:25

saw the movie Bullworth in the 90s, and he just couldn't wait to be that guy. But it's just like it's not landing. It's pretty harsh. It's pretty brutal. And I guess that's the reason why we should get rid of term limits, because he was still running for office. No,

Corey 11:39

No, I mean, he's

Corey 11:41

he's clearly in give no fucks coast mode, and he's just having a fun time. And part of me admires the fact that he's just doing whatever he wants, because he's not going to be president. He's not got a nice cabinet position waiting for him. He's not going to be mayor. He is not particularly popular right now. And he's just letting it all hang out. I

Zain 12:00

mean, isn't the lesson of politics that sometimes you need to know if you're a leading character in Bullworth or an extra on Dave? I mean, isn't that ultimately the only lesson in politics? Guys, we have to talk about this next one. The military's got a massive problem. We've seen it time and time again. This one comes to us from CTV. Canadian soldier charged with feeding cannabis cupcakes to artillery unit during live fire exercise. Jesus.

Zain 12:27

Yes, a Canadian Army gunner is facing more than a dozen charges after she allegedly served cannabis-laced cupcakes to her unsuspecting artillery unit during a live-fire exercise, court documents allege. Stephen Carter, the military issues seem to run deep in this country, but who knew they also ran high? You're

Carter 12:48

welcome. Oh, nice. Thank you. Yeah.

Zain 12:50

Yeah. Anything to add?

Zain 12:53

did you did you even watch the fucking bill de blasio clip during the last break where cory was just going on about it you didn't even do that did you didn't

Carter 13:00

didn't really find the will to care no i'm sorry and this one has taken me off guard as well i did not anticipate this i was waiting to hear about charles groden dying we've

Zain 13:10

we've said this before that this is where you learn of the news this is the yeah

Carter 13:15

yeah i mean i'm a little bit shocked uh

Zain 13:17

uh cory anything to react to before i move on to our next one okay

Zain 13:20

okay let's move it

Zain 13:21

on to it let's

Zain 13:24

let's move it on to our next one this one comes to us from apple insider do you guys know where i'm going here do you guys know where i'm going here i have no clue zane canadian prime minister justin trudeau busted for using fake mac with apple sticker yes that's right a photograph of justin trudeau shows him using a hp windows Trudeau's laptop, which wouldn't be remarked upon, but it was sporting an Apple sticker. This was, of course, on the Liberal Party's, I believe, fundraising page, where Trudeau is, seems to be, you know, a picture of Trudeau, just if you haven't seen it yet. The back of his laptop lid exposed a sticker with an Apple sticker covering the HP logo, while Trudeau's, you know, presumably on a web call of some sort or a Zoom meeting of some sort. Corey, did you see this? Did you guys see this? I did

Zain 14:13

this. Okay, okay. And your thoughts? What do you think happened here?

Corey 14:17

I don't know. I mean, I have an HP sticker on my Apple MacBook, so these things happen. I'm sure somebody put it on because it was kind of a funny joke. It's a silver computer. It looks like a MacBook. It's not really a MacBook. And sometimes you forget that you've done something stupid like that. It's like the bumper sticker you put on that you ignore, and then you don't understand why somebody is honking at you. And it's because you've got, you know, honk

Corey 14:42

honk if you're horny on the back of your Geo Metro. So that

Carter 14:48

I mean, that's just the most fucking bizarre explanation I've ever heard.

Carter 14:52

There's no way that that is what happened.

Carter 14:55

There was someone who was setting up the photograph. No, I

Carter 14:59

There's someone setting up the photograph. It's a staffer's computer,

Zain 15:02

computer, right? Don't you

Carter 15:02

you think? No, they put that on because they wanted the signal. No way.

Carter 15:07

No, come on. They wanted the signal that he was working on a Macintosh because a Macintosh is infinitely more cool. You truly believe

Carter 15:18

believe in a room of

Corey 15:19

of fucking liberals there wasn't one person with a MacBook. This is your brilliant theory.

Carter 15:23

Yeah, because they had them all checked. They had them all looked because they had to have the Ethernet connection so that he had his Ethernet connection all set up. It was a bullshit photograph that was staged in order to win points with the libs. So you think it was

Corey 15:39

was more likely they

Corey 15:43

had an extra Apple sticker around to put on an HP laptop than they did a dongle to get into the Ethernet. That's your theory. I actually buy Carter's theory right there. I

Zain 15:54

I feel like –

Carter 15:56

Take a poll. Take a poll. Take a poll. Put up a poll right now.

Corey 16:02

Reality's not a democracy, Steve. Yeah, Carter.

Zain 16:04

Carter. Carter. Novel concepts. uh so

Zain 16:09

many things i need to i need to unpack here first of all um

Zain 16:14

not a macbook but looks like a mac but might be the greatest metaphor for uh justin trudeau uh secondly

Zain 16:22

secondly secondly uh i don't know i on this one you haven't asked me to weigh it but i i thought it was just the staffers i thought it was a staffer who was probably had an internal joke You know, the Liberal Party is down in their fundraising numbers. They may not be able to afford MacBooks for all their staff at the party HQ. So this Liberal staffer, you know, has their own iPhone, came with a couple stickers, put it on their Liberal Party issued laptop. And then when they went on to do their thing, they just set that one up for Trudeau. I think that's what happened.

Corey 16:57

happen yeah i mean so do i i think it was just a total accident i think it just happened to be around and somebody took it i don't think anyone thought oh this is really funny we're gonna get away with looking like we've got a macbook and it's not really uh i

Zain 17:08

i guess the big question is does justin trudeau think he was on a mac that

Zain 17:13

is the first question that with that somebody well someone needs to do an accountability interview on that one let's move it on to our final headline i want to spend a bit of time on this this one comes to us from cbc activist filmmaker avi Lewis, sorry, to run for the federal NDP in southwest British Columbia.

Zain 17:30

Let's talk about this, guys, because I think there's some interesting implications for Lewis, for the NDP here. We know we've teased NDP-related stories in the past. I still want to do eventually our deep dive. Today will not be that episode. But Avi Lewis, Stephen Lewis's son, the co-author of of the infamous Leap Manifesto, which was, one could say, instrumental in defeating Tom Mulcair at the Leadership Convention in 2016 in Edmonton. Carter, give me top line thoughts here. The fact that he's running for the NDP, is this good

Zain 18:03

good news for the NDP? Let's start here on a binary. Is this good news or is this bad news for the NDP that they've got Avi Lewis, you know, notable, but also also controversial, seeking the nomination. I shouldn't say he's outright, you know, being the candidate, but seeking the nomination in

Carter 18:19

I can almost wrap my head around this being good news for the NDP because he is going to force the NDP into a different direction. He's going to make it unique and

Carter 18:27

he's going to shift the brand positions. You didn't ask me specifically if it was good news or bad news for Jagmeet Singh. I'm

Carter 18:34

But it is terrible news for him because the leadership just started. and

Carter 18:37

and uh avi lewis is is making a play for the ndp to rebuild the party in in a different uh a different brand and i'm not sure that's a bad thing i think that you know we've talked before about how the ndp has been uh pushed out by the liberal party that has taken so many of its policies and positions uh and the green party that's taken a whole bunch of other ones So, Avi Lewis and bringing his type of New

Carter 19:04

New Democrat to the forefront might be good

Carter 19:07

good for the party. It also could be the death knell. So, as someone who's not a New Democrat, I'm surely looking forward to watching it, because that's going to be entertaining.

Zain 19:16

Corey, let's start here. Good news for the party, and then let's add Carter's question to good news for Jagmeet Singh, or manageable news for Jagmeet Singh, possibly, as the second part of that question. No,

Corey 19:27

No, I do not believe this is good news for the NDP. I think their best case scenario is he loses the nomination. There's a couple of things that immediately strike me about this. In general, my first reaction was kind of thinking this was funny because of all of the plays. And did you see the video and all of them? I

Zain 19:45

have not. No, Carter may have, but he hasn't seen anything or heard

Corey 19:48

heard anything. No, I don't watch videos online. He's been under a rock. He owes a serious debt to AOC and in general, like the whole movement in the United States. Oh, really? In fact, I think at one point there's like AOC is written on a board behind him. And anyways, it's just, it's really silly. When you think of the writing, like West Vancouver, Sunshine Coast, Sea to Sky is not,

Corey 20:09

not, I mean, it's an interesting place. Everybody knows – well, everybody in this neck of the woods sort of knows that rural vibe, right? It's kind

Corey 20:17

of granola, but there's also a kind of a gun-toting part of it too. And it's not something that immediately lends itself to kind of urban New Democrat-ness. Does that make sense? Yeah, sure, sure. The New Democrats, like any political party, have different groups, different quote-unquote factions. I'm not even talking about factionalism here, but I'm saying there are flavors of social democracy. And the particular flavor he has does not seem like a great fit for this particular writing. This is a writing that's flipped back and forth between the conservatives and the liberals. It's never been NDP. No,

Corey 20:52

No, Blair Wilson left the liberals, was an independent, then a green. But that's as close as it's gotten to something else. The NDP ran fourth there last election. They ran just like a fraction of a point over fourth the election before. i just i have a really hard time believing that this is a particularly solid feat it seems like it's a flight of madness a flight of fancy i i do not understand why lewis would choose this particular writing but that might actually be something that the ndp kind of will count as a blessing later because there are just the thing is like

Corey 21:30

like how can i count the ways that i'm not enthused about this late on generational politics the fact that it's like a scion i we all know how well i love that you know whether we're talking about the the liberals the conservatives or the new democrats right uh the the idea that um he uh he has these ideals that are so deeply out of touch with middle canada as manifested in the leap manifesto right just like none of this lands in a a particularly good way and if i was the uh if i was the party i would be just kind of

Corey 22:05

gently encouraging maybe someone even to test the waters against him let's put it that way like i wouldn't be actively campaigning but i would just say like hey this is not a cakewalk for the guy

Corey 22:15

um judith wilson ran there last time i don't i don't know like i don't know but this is not great and if somehow by some miracle he a1 and then b got into the house of commons I think he would pull the NDP so far outside – like, he would just be part of this growing block of people that would sort of push the NDP too far off of economic interests, right? Just too far off. Are

Zain 22:39

Are you saying, like, this is not necessarily just so far left, is it? Is that what you're saying? It's so far out of touch, Zane. I

Corey 22:46

I don't even think it's a left or a right thing. I think it's just – you

Corey 22:49

you do not walk amongst the common people, and you talk an uncommon language, and you have uncommon concerns. And if you become sort of a standard bearer for the new Democratic Party, I

Corey 23:00

I mean, it almost becomes a joke. It's like a parody of what a new Democratic candidate would be, right? And particularly in that corner of the country, I just think it's a head scratcher.

Zain 23:12

Carter, why do you think this riding, he doesn't live there from as far as I know, feels like he's not from there. Do you feel like this is something, to Corey's point, that the party might be counting their blessings, but do you feel like the party may have forced him into this territory, being like, if you want to do it, you got to do it here? You feel like that could be part of the mix? I'm speculating. I don't know this, but I'm kind of throwing it to you based on your party experience. Why a person with, regardless of out of touch or in in touch. Certainly someone with brand reputation, certainly someone with a name would choose to run in a place that has never

Zain 23:49

never gone for the NDP. It's the furthest thing from a guaranteed seat. I'm just curious from your perspective what you think may have happened here.

Carter 23:59

I think that it very easily could just be he wants to be a giant killer, right?

Carter 24:03

right? Don't run in an easy place. If I can run run and win in West Vancouver, Sunshine Coast, Sea to Sky, then the New Democratic Party is viable wherever, as me as the leader. So go in, take over a tough-to-win riding. The guy has celebrity status. He's going to get media coverage. Whether he's earned that media coverage or not isn't for me to judge, but he's going to be noticeable. And I don't know. oh, I don't know that he can win the riding.

SPEAKER_00 24:36

riding. I don't know that he,

Carter 24:37

he, maybe he thinks he can. This is not a guy that strikes me as lack of, you know, not having a degree of arrogance. He has a fairly high opinion of himself and his ideas. And I think that he thinks that maybe if he runs, you know, this AOC style of campaign that Corey mentions, maybe he's got it. And if he does win there and he's

Carter 24:58

he's able to be a giant killer,

Carter 25:01

and if he doesn't win, And back he

Carter 25:03

he goes to his activism and writing and doing

Carter 25:06

doing the things that I don't know how he earns a living, but, you know, maybe he doesn't need to.

Zain 25:11

Corey, let's assume that this Carter's theory is correct, right? Like almost going into enemy territory, if I can call it that, you know, showcasing a victory and saying we're more viable than not as a party, using it as a proof point to that. Good strategy in your mind? We're adding strategy upon speculation, but why the fuck not? Like good strategy in your mind, if that's indeed the case?

Corey 25:32

It's not a crazy one. And the thing I do want to stress is that if you're looking at it and you say, well, NDP plus green vote equals, well, that's about 35. And that's what the liberals won with last time. You

Corey 25:42

You might start to think, hey, maybe there's a real opportunity here. I suspect – I'll jump back to your question in a minute here – that if the liberal and or conservative voters started thinking, oh my god, like, Abby Lewis could win this, I think you'd see sort of a consolidation of the vote there, I suspect. He'd be one of the candidates available who might actually make liberal and conservative voters decide it's better to kind of congeal votes. votes. But not a bad strategy at all in the sense that you come in, you show that you walk in and your elevator pitch to the party becomes, I

Corey 26:19

I got elected in a place that the NDP came in fourth with ideas that I was told were too far outside of the mainstream. These ideas can win anywhere. We just need a bold presentation of this vision. I can provide that bold presentation. The proof point is my election. Let's go. And that's going to sound very appealing to some people. But I've I've got to tell you, most ridings in this country, green plus NDP does not equal majority or plurality of vote. And so it's a bit of a mirage. So this is why I say the NDP's best case scenario is he loses. He could win. And I think if he wins, it will create this sense of like, well, look, Nikki Ashna can win here. I can win there. We're going to go for it. And a

Corey 27:01

a part of me thinks that'd be kind of cool.

Corey 27:03

But a part of me thinks that's a way to kind of electoral damnation. and um and

Corey 27:09

and that's uh yeah

Corey 27:10

that's just not that doesn't seem like a wise idea for the ndp have

Zain 27:13

have you actually created a case for saying this is something we can extrapolate or have you said that with someone with incredibly high profile and you know a legacy uh can create a beachhead in certain territories right like it's it's not clear if if it's the former or the latter well let me say this created a proof point

Corey 27:29

point yeah let me say this i actually do believe that the ndp could move more to the left.

Corey 27:35

But we talk about this left right spectrum in kind of this lazy sense, right? Yeah,

Corey 27:39

you know, there's economic left, there's environmental left, there's social left, there's there's kind of like, a justice left, whatever you want. But my point would be there's a lot of ground that I think is more popular than it is inhabited by political parties that the NDP could stake out. My concern with Lewis is I don't think he's looking for those signals i think he's a true believer of a certain thing and i i don't know if he would so much be moving into this territory to to build out a new ndp and here we are already talking as though he's leader of the party he's not right uh but um i i think it would be more he would be moving blissfully unaware towards his philosophy and i just i just don't know that there's enough of a kind of a i

Corey 28:23

i don't get the sense and this is largely based on the leap manifesto and a lot lot of the conversation around there, that there's a really good understanding of how some of these things land with huge swaths of the population.

Zain 28:35

Carter, I've got two final questions. Let me start with this one, which first one is, any case to be made that someone like him could help establish a big tent NDP, that this is actually good for the party in the sense that, you know, it's nice to have diversity of views, we can reconcile them, we actually have a broad spectrum of progressivism within the party? Is there any merit in that? Or is that just spin in your mind?

Carter 28:57

It's spin. I mean, this is a guy who suffers from true believerism, right? Like he believes that the things that he holds true are the general population's views. And I see no data that supports that. It seems to be just kind of more, you

Carter 29:17

know, more wishful thinking and a desire to to take a party in a direction that he wants, not necessarily a party in a direction that the general population wants. It's true believerism, not politics.

Zain 29:35

if you're Jagmeet Singh right now, how are you processing this? How are you thinking about this? How are you even trying to respond or strategize around this? What are some points that Jagmeet Singh should keep in mind or perhaps think about out as he as he sees what's happening uh with even a conversation like this and many people jumping to oh there's

Zain 29:55

next there's the next leader there's the next leader uh chirping

Zain 29:58

chirping around a anticipated federal election yeah

Corey 30:01

yeah listen i don't i think that's that is we we kind of indulge that but i think that's going way too far there's the next leader for a ton of reasons and even if you set aside the

Corey 30:10

the philosophical concerns and and that true believerism that steven was talking about and And listen, having beliefs is not a terrible reason to get into politics. But if you want to be leader of a party, having beliefs, you know, has to be married with kind of like a practical, active imagination

Corey 30:26

imagination as to how you can make these things real, right? Not just how you wish them into existence. And

Corey 30:34

if I'm saying, obviously, I'm in a bit of a box because the party is not exactly, like the party, there is a huge swath of the party that really likes the Leap Manifesto. You can't you can't disallow the guy from running or anything like that.

Corey 30:47

You know, you just have to sort of let the chips fall where they may not look like you're sweating too much on it. By all means, run in West Vancouver, Sunshine Coast, Sea to Sky. Why not? Right. But you may have a problem after the next election. But don't borrow problems for the future in this case, because in the scenario where he's won, that means the NDP are probably picking up seats, which will also help you. Carter,

Zain 31:11

Carter, advice for Jagmeet Singh at this moment in time?

Carter 31:15

Make a donation to the West Vancouver Sea to Sky Liberal Party. Just throwing it out there.

Zain 31:24

You think he should be worried? Genuinely. You said that up front. You feel like this is a

Zain 31:29

a shot. I think that if

Carter 31:31

if there's going to be a challenge to his leadership, I think it's far more likely to come from the ideological left than it is from a moderate center. I think that so much of the moderate center has moved away. So I think that the ideological left very easily could make a play on them.

Zain 31:49

That's interesting. We're going to follow this story, or we may not. We'll see where it ends up. Exactly. Let's move it on to our next segment, the many ways to reopen. Guys, I want to talk about reopening in two definitions, of course.

Zain 32:03

We're going to compare the reopening plans for Ontario and Quebec, and then we're going to jump into Quebec about something else they want to reopen. constitutionally we want to talk about uh some of their language laws that they want to consider as part of bill 96 but let's first hit up a comparison on the reopen plans for ontario and quebec and talk about the politics of them uh in ontario they just announced today i believe if i'm not mistaken that there is three-step plan to reopen the province with outdoor recreational amenities gradually opening uh as part of the uh restrictions as of may 22nd i.e this saturday outdoor recreational amenities, golf courses, tennis, etc., will allow it to reopen. Outdoor limits for gathering and organized public events will be expanded on Saturday, which will allow these amenities to be used by up to five people. And then we have two other stages based and tethered with vaccination rates in Ontario. Since this has been dropped, this plan, many have called it a very cautious approach for Ford, you know, a step-based plan tethered to vaccination rates. You know, many many people within his own party, even some commentators surprised by how slow and perhaps, I think cautious is the right word, the opening plan was. Carter, I'm going to start with you on this one. A, would you agree that it's in the cautious territory? And I'll very quickly introduce Quebec here so we can have a comparator. And B, do you feel like that's the right strategy for Ford given some of the heat and political L's he's had recently with perhaps reopening too early or are having some restrictions fall flat on their face or be outright rejected by a broad base of the Ontario population. So I want to ask you both of those questions. And let's introduce Quebec quickly. And we'll go to Corey. Do

Carter 33:43

Do I think it's cautious? Absolutely. I think it's cautious. I think it had to be cautious, though, because Ontario, Alberta, Quebec, British Columbia, there was a bunch

Carter 33:53

bunch of reopening too early that led us to our third wave.

Carter 33:57

If you look at the numbers, the the spike didn't get down to the to

Carter 34:01

to the last summer lows right we we went down a little bit and

Carter 34:05

and then we started to reopen in the spring and

Carter 34:07

and by the time we were getting into April

Carter 34:10

April we were seeing significant spikes across the the country so that that type of you know

Carter 34:18

know slow reopening is absolutely required but what bothers me about it is that right now this the reopening isn't based based on caseload.

Carter 34:27

It's not based on the traditional measures of what we

Carter 34:29

we were thinking was important.

Carter 34:31

It's instead relying only on the vaccination loads.

Carter 34:35

So I'm surprised that Ford didn't dig more deeply and say, we're going to balance off. We're going to make sure that, number one, our ICUs are OK, our hospitals are OK, the caseloads are down, and we're going to make sure that there's vaccination so that this doesn't happen again.

Carter 34:51

It feels to me that a proper A proper reopening strategy would have the

Carter 34:56

the vaccination rates as well as the hospitalization rates and the rate of transmission as a big part of the reopening strategy before you even consider the vaccination rates and the two-dose vaccination rates. So to me, this felt like it was rather one-dimensional, but at the same time, cautious one-dimension.

Carter 35:16

And it also maybe helped him throw

Carter 35:19

throw the blame to Trudeau. we can't reopen uh trudeau hasn't given us the doses that we require to get to 25 second doses

Carter 35:29

just you know throwing some messaging at him yeah

Zain 35:32

yeah i'm sure he'd pick that up and run with it i think it's been very much in line with their current messaging cory same questions for you you know carter says here that you know cautious needed to be cautious um but perhaps the wrong metrics tricks being used in terms of what reopening looks like. Your take on on broad take on the on the Ford government's reopening plan in Ontario. So

Corey 35:54

So I hear what Stephen's saying. And I do think that from a pure public health point of view, tying it to ICU beds, tying it to cases that makes sense. But I also believe you've always got the option as the government to say, you know what cases are out of hand, ICU is out of hand, we're going to shut this thing down, or we're going to to do a bit of a small circuit breaker. I think tying it on one dimension to vaccine makes a ton of sense. And I don't believe it's about throwing the blame to Trudeau. I think it's about incentivizing vaccination. It's encouraging people who are on that next level out, because we are now getting to the point in this country where we'll be talking about the vaccine hesitant an awful lot more.

Corey 36:31

We've been lucky so far, the number of people getting their vaccinations has not been declining, right? At least not in any kind of measurable way at this point, but that day will will come and if you really want to get to 75 20 or 75 25 or any of these metrics that have been laid out there by various authorities you've got to start worrying about where your ceiling is and if you're if you're sealing if you can get extra five points out of your ceiling and get that much closer or perhaps tip over to herd immunity because you have said your life gets to go back to normal when you get vaccinated that

Corey 37:05

that makes an awful lot of sense to me and that's pretty clean communications and that communications would break if you said if you get vaccinated and x and y and z then we'll go back to normal then what you're going to have is the vaccine hesitant say oh fuck well they're not going to they're going to do whatever they want and yes they're going to just they're just going to shut us down if there's the icu i'm not getting vaccinated it has nothing to do with vaccines so the clarity of this appeals to me and i do think that it is uh potentially helpful at heading off a

Corey 37:32

a future problem a problem we can all see coming the united states has basically started

Corey 37:36

started to cap out many people online were We're making a big deal that Canada in the one-dose-or-more category has now tied the United States, expected to pass the United States tomorrow. Very quickly, yeah.

Corey 37:49

That's fine, but we are not so different a nation. I've got to be – if I'm in public health, I'm worried about that. I'm worried about when our curve starts to bend down and people stop getting their jabs. So I'm totally on board with what Doug Ford's doing. doing as long as behind the scenes there's still kind of a a mental even if not communicated circuit breaker of but if shit gets out of hand i'm gonna i'm gonna pull it down carter

Zain 38:15

jump in and then we'll jump into quebec i'll

Carter 38:17

i'll tell you something so as someone sitting here in alberta i am very pleased to see the rules i'm very pleased to see this is what we're going to do these are the dates that we're looking at this is the criteria that we're hoping to see because that clarity gives us the ability to start thinking about what reopening looks like and And I may have quibbles about whether or not he's, you know, looking at both factors. But he's giving us a scorecard that enables us to know what the hell is going to happen over the summer. Kenny's given us just simply words of greatest summer ever, maybe the best summer ever, maybe a summer. You know, like he hasn't really given us anything to go on at all.

Zain 38:53

Guys, let's jump into Quebec, because as of May 31st, that province will start looking a bit more like normal. They have a stage plan as well. that on the 31st they'll have they'll be in what they call the orange zone restaurants and gyms will open with some restrictions high school students will be back to class two weeks later on the 14th the province will go into yellow zone team sports will start people will be able to visit other households again bars will throw open their doors and slightly ahead of that terraces will open and then by the end of june um even more relaxed rules will come into play as quebec moves into the green zone 10 people to get together indoors outdoor festivals will be allowed up to 2,500 people. This seems quite different. I don't know if it necessarily is going to be quite different in terms of how it shapes itself between the two provinces. But Carter, any initial observations? Maybe I'll start with you in terms of how Quebec is dealing with this, both on the communications side of it and how they look at their reopening.

Carter 39:46

Well, I mean, the first thing that jumps out is that they've already set dates. There's no more requirements in order what they're going to hit. They're not tethered

Zain 39:52

tethered to anything. Yeah,

Zain 39:54

that's the fundamental difference. These

Carter 39:55

These dates are set in, you know, I'm not going to say they're set in stone, because of course, they can change. But these dates are set. And now we know, right, that the 28th of May, the 11th of June, the 25th of June, you've got actual, you know, signposts where these things are going to start to change. And I think that that helps. You know, on the one hand, I think that that Doug Ford's plan probably will result in pushing some more people towards vaccinations. But I think that that having, again, the clarity of the Quebec strategy makes me, you know, gives me kind

Carter 40:28

kind of a confidence that they know what they're doing and they're doing what they need to achieve. I look at the numbers and I think there's some questions for me, like the 2,500 people in, you

Carter 40:41

you know, big auditoriums. Festivals,

Zain 40:43

Festivals, festivals, yeah, yeah. What

Carter 40:44

What does that mean and how does that actually

Carter 40:47

actually function? You know, like there's not a,

Carter 40:50

they're trying to get back to doing festivals and events in a very minimal minimal level so that i think helps uh quite a bit and

Carter 41:00

and uh you know i i do think that they should be more tied to actual measurables but i i don't mind the actual dates because it does give us signposts to see where we'll be in the future cory

Zain 41:12

cory any thoughts uh from your perspective on on the the quebec plan we've talked about the big feature here which is the the more uh time bound uh you know phase phases that are introduced anything else or even on that point did you want to jump in on yeah

Corey 41:26

yeah time bound triggered all the provinces are reacting to the same fundamental fact which is we are all getting vaccinated that

Corey 41:32

that train is on track and if people start declining first doses presumably they become second doses so we're still going to get further protections from here And while we need to be smart and not dumb as we move through into this next phase, I think people need to sort of begin to internalize the fact that in about a month, a month, we are going to hit those PHAC targets of when we can start reopening these things. And those targets that PHAC built were not really themselves more to what's going on in ICUs, what's going on in case counts, right? And so we are going into a different paradigm here. And I think that many

Corey 42:08

many times in the past year and a half, governments have acted too slowly. And people have perhaps acted too slowly or mentally not gotten there fast enough. And as a result, we have acted too late. And perhaps that's a lesson we have now at this point overlearned. Because now, you know, people are almost feeling like everything needs to be perfectly resolved before we start moving forward and out of this. But there is a moment, and I can't say with any certainty that we're at this moment, but there is going to be a moment in this, in

Corey 42:37

in this pandemic, where

Corey 42:40

it's going to be okay, like we're out of the woods, right? And the public health officials seem to think that when we hit certain targets on vaccination, we're there. So if you're Quebec and you think totally confident you're going to get there, why wouldn't you start planning to open up? If you're Ontario and you're thinking, pretty sure we're going to get there, maybe even totally confident, but you want to have that extra kind of security and so you tie it explicitly to vaccination, why not? And it all kind of makes sense. And we can expect to start seeing decline in those trailing indicators of ICUs and deaths going forward as the third wave starts to look behind all of the provinces. And well, except Manitoba, unfortunately, there's terrible stories coming out of Manitoba. But, you know, pray we don't get to a fourth. And that this is the moment, because the science suggests it might be.

Zain 43:33

Corey, I'm going to ask a question that I think Carter implicitly answered, but I'll give him a final word on it before we jump into the next thing, which is what advice would you give other premiers as they construct their plans? Communications advice to them as they construct their plans for reopening. What would some of the principles that you would want them to keep in mind? Carter's version of like deliverables around goals, these dates, these targets, we know what we need. If you do X, you get Y. why. What are some of the principles that you would offer to premiers that have yet to roll out what their opening or reopening plans look like?

Corey 44:05

So I'm talking to premiers who have not done it, I would be looking at the premiers that have, I would say, how's it going in Quebec? What was the reaction like in Quebec? Why was that reaction? Is that something that's unique to the characteristics, the distinct society that is Quebec that I suspect we'll be talking about in a minute? Or is that something that I

Corey 44:21

I can learn from and apply in my own province?

Corey 44:25

Take by all all means, you know, draft on the other provinces that have started to move these plans forward.

Zain 44:30

Yeah. And, you know, to that point, we heard that a lot of Quebec's plan was based on a lot of Saskatchewan's approach, right? At least in philosophy, in some ways, you heard Legault, you know, compliment Saskatchewan. Carter, finish us off on this. Any further advice you'd give to premiers that haven't announced their reopening strategies or plans, communications or strategic that

Zain 44:49

that you'd want them to know?

Carter 44:52

This is where we're going to go. These are, you know, I want to make sure that my my signposts are clear. And then I also want to give people hope that the normalcy is around the corner. One of the challenges with the Quebec plan is that it really takes quite a while to start to see anything vaguely resembling full normalcy, like the end of August or later is when you're really starting to see, you

Carter 45:14

know, normal reoccur. And I think that that's probably right. But making making sure that you give us hope that there will be an end date to this. Because Lord knows, you know, this has gone on, well, I think, frankly, for as long as people were predicting. But it is really, really tiring. And having some hope at the end is our pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

Zain 45:39

Let's stick with Quebec, but let's change the definition to reopening. I want to talk about the reopening of something else, the Constitution. Basically, Quebec wants to insert. Now, if you haven't heard this story, two bullet points into the 1867 Constitution Act, one that says, quote, Quebecers form a nation, and the other that says French shall be the only official language of a Quebec. It's also the common language of the Quebec nation. nation. Taken by themselves, these two things are not especially controversial. The House of Commons back in the day in 2006, I believe, passed a motion around recognizing Quebecers forming a nation. And the second point captures an easily verifiable fact about how the government operates and most people interact in Quebec. Where things get messy is figuring out how these two points get included into the Constitution. So while Quebec can alter aspects of its own constitution. Any challenges that also alter the Canadian constitutions are likely to run into roadblocks, i.e. Canada is a nation of both French and English. Corey, you know a bit about this issue. My first question is, how well did I summarize it as it relates to Quebec's Bill 96? Because there's so much politics about it, but as it relates to the facts of what Quebec is trying to do, you know, how well did I do and what else would you add, I guess, is the second part of the the question to help listeners contextualize the true nature of this story.

Corey 47:05

So, I guess the thing that I want everybody to know right off the bat, if they're not already aware, is that

Corey 47:12

different countries approach constitutional issues in different ways, right? The United States has this document where they had a total break from the past, even their own past, right, where they had the articles of their, they had their own articles, and they replaced them with this constitution in 1787 and it's the constitution and from that point forward that was the rules under which they govern themselves that

Corey 47:33

that is not what canada did and that's not what many nations do but that is really not what canada did we've got a weird mix of a written and an unwritten constitution and explicitly within our constitution when we talk about the constitution people often talk about the constitution act 1867 constitution act 1982 but in reality the constitution is a lot lot of documents and not all of them are even Acts of Parliament. They're all sorts of like various source items. To give you a sense, just I got a quick list here for you. Constitution Act 1867, Manitoba Act, Rupert's Land and Northwest Territory Order, BC Terms of Union, Constitution Act again of 1871, Prince Edward Island Terms of Union. You've got everything going on, including the Statute of Westminster, Newfoundland Act, you name it. Like there's a real grab bag of acts that that fall explicitly as the Constitution of Canada. And we have in the Constitution Act of 1982, it says the Constitution of Canada includes this act, the act in 1867, and all

Corey 48:31

all of these other things. And there's this big, big list. In addition to that, there's been all sorts of other documents dragged into it,

Corey 48:38

going way back to British times. You've got the Quebec Act from the 18th century.

Corey 48:43

Conceivably, because we've got a mix of written and unwritten, this goes back to the Magna Carta. So this

Corey 48:48

this I want to stress. It's important. We're not talking about in the United States where you have like Article 2 of the Constitution says X and Quebec's trying to come in and change it per se, right?

Corey 48:59

Because that's not what our Constitution is. Our Constitution is a big mess of various different acts. And our Constitution also says there's various ways to amend the acts, right? Right. There is this, you know, unanimity clause where you've got to get all of the provinces to agree plus parliament. That's for big things like the queen or the Senate and you name it. Right. There's the general amending, which is often called seven plus 50, where you've got to get two thirds of the provinces representing 50 percent of the population. That's where a lot of the constitutional conversations tend to float. out if you're not trying to abolish the monarchy would

Corey 49:38

would but we could god i would love that but no can't so we should yeah

Corey 49:42

sure why not um and

Corey 49:45

and then you've got a number of other amending formula that are really based on like um how can i put this like uh like just various fringe cases i'll call it so we have a general an amendment that hey if this only affects a couple of provinces provinces or one province, that province plus parliament can vote on it. That's generally what we've used in the past. If it only affects the quote-unquote constitutional documents, because again, it's a huge list of documents, right? Huge list, not all of which get

Corey 50:15

get beyond even kind of the banal statutory level, right? Parliament can change things that are exclusively within parliament,

Corey 50:23

right? You don't even need to go to the provinces to amend those parts of the constitution. And then there is this clause that the provinces can amend – well,

Corey 50:31

well, really what it's meant for is they can amend their constitutions because of all those acts I listed, like there's the Alberta Act, the Newfoundland Act, the Quebec Act, right? They can make – but they are allowed to, and I quote, may exclusively make laws amending the constitution of the province. So that

Corey 50:49

that is where we're at. Quebec is arguing that these two particular clauses, the idea that Quebec is a nation plus the language of Quebec is French, is just amending their constitution. Now, that's a really interesting take because you're kind of trying to amend the body that we tend to think of at that higher level. But again, we have so many bloody documents that in mass make the constitution. My point is simply it's complicated, and legal scholars have been arguing about it for a week now. Is this allowed? Is this not allowed?

Corey 51:24

I would say, not to kind of scoop myself here, if in 2001 we

Corey 51:29

decided that changing the name of the province of Newfoundland to the province of Newfoundland and Labrador – and it did nothing. It did literally nothing besides change the name. We decided that needed Parliament plus Newfoundland.

Corey 51:40

How is it that Quebec being a nation and Quebec's, you know, the language of Quebec being French exclusively, how does that not reach that bar that we have sort of determined over time? time.

Zain 51:52

I appreciate the context. I appreciate the examples. I appreciate the history lesson, Corey. This is excellent. And the fundamental question here is the simple one.

Zain 52:01

Can a province unilaterally change their constitution? Stephen Carter, jump in here. That's where the politics comes in. I'm going to get into it. I'm going to tease this out for you guys a bit. I want to talk to you guys about, Carter, one second. I'm just going to give you a preview. Go ahead, Corey.

Corey 52:13

Corey. So before you do, the answer to that question, Zane, is yes. The question is, is that what what they're doing. Right,

Zain 52:20

Right, right, exactly. And so the political question here really is about what Legault is doing, when he's doing it, cough, cough, election, what the response of our political leaders on the federal stage looks like, and where the landmines, so to speak, Carter, lie here politically. But you wanted to jump in, you're pulling your non-existent hair hair out. So I'll let you go in.

Carter 52:45

Is this constitutional? Is this going to occur without constitutional challenges? I don't know. It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. I mean, Corey's wonderful.

Zain 52:57

I feel like you're going to lead into the politics very quickly here.

Carter 53:00

here. Why doesn't it matter? Corey's wonderful explanation. I don't disagree with a word of it. Corey's a smart young man. He's an up and comer, I tell you, an up and comer. he's got a real chance but

Carter 53:12

i think the political question for trudeau and the political question for o'toole um is how do i not fuck myself because lego is putting us in a position where we're gonna fuck ourselves right

Zain 53:26

right this is my first fundamental question is this a bear trap by lego of course

Carter 53:29

course it is yes it absolutely is and that's why you see trudeau bringing out the internal internal analysis that says, oh, they can do this. Of course they can do this. I mean, everybody external to the government of Canada is going, I don't think they can do this, including our very own legal scholar, Corey Hogan, right? Who brings up a very good legal precedent.

Carter 53:52

don't have big, high-priced lawyers. We just have Corey Hogan. But I like his analysis. I think he's right. I think that he's brought a very good case. But the high-priced talent inside the government of Canada has come up with something different because that's what the prime minister wants them to come up with. Because the prime minister does not want to be telling the people of Quebec that they can't have this right, that in some fashion they are constrained by the rest of the population of Canada, because Quebec doesn't like that. And Quebec may not vote for the liberals. So as

Carter 54:21

as a result, Justin Trudeau has turned probably some poor internal lawyer lawyer or team of lawyers into pretzels trying to come up with a piece of logic that allows him not to lose the next election and say what the good people of Quebec want to hear. Legault's doing this on purpose at this time because it's fun. I think he's having a great time. I think that he and his friends are having a drink in their, you know, outdoor as allowed locations as given by their um back back

Carter 54:53

back to normal guidelines um and they're just laughing because they're watching uh the liberals first of all turn themselves inside out and the conservatives try and figure out how they're going to do it because everybody wants those votes and

Carter 55:09

leggo made it very difficult for them to get him seat

Zain 55:13

seat rich quebec this kind of feels like last time when he threw Bill 21 into the whole fucking mix too, right? It has a very different, not an entirely dissimilar flavor to 2019. Let me lay out on the table what each of our federal leaders have said, right? So Justin Trudeau's general answer has been, you know, not a high praise for it, but yeah, Quebec could rewrite a section of Canada's constitution, no permission needed from the provinces or the federal government. Jagmeet Singh says, if the Quebec government wants to make modifications to the constitution to better protect the french language and the culture of quebec the federal government should work with the province to make it happen um o'toole says to la presse that uh he believes quebec is able to alter parts of the constitution by itself a little bit of that undone by michelle rempel garner in alberta who says that uh posted her reaction suggesting that trudeau was setting a very dangerous precedent signaling and posing an example could alberta just do whatever the fuck it wants, you know, based on this. So that's kind of where the parties generally stand. Corey, where, first of all, I'm going to ask you the basic question, you know, bear trap by Legault? And how should the leaders think about navigating this? And I want to start with Trudeau at the top. So give me the answer to the bear trap question, which I suspect you're going to say yes to. And then let's talk about the Trudeau strategy as we move through the other leaders it

Corey 56:37

might be a bear trap but it's not a bear trap the way i think many people are thinking of it look it's actually very clever it's a clever solution to a constitutional box we've never been able to quote unquote you know get quebec to sign the constitution not necessary for it to have legal effect right uh but by you know if there's a positive here it's that quebec is essentially like by working within the constitutional framework even if it's adopting it in some way That's

Corey 57:02

That's correct. And so if Quebec amends the constitution, in

Corey 57:06

in a way, are they not putting their kind of imprimatur on the constitution that gets us past the thing? And so in that sense, why the hell not? I mean, there's two pieces we talked about, right? The nation piece, which

Corey 57:20

which parliament has generally already voted on. This was something

Corey 57:24

we did back in 2011, I think you were saying?

Corey 57:26

saying? Oh, six. Oh, six. Yeah. nothing right

Corey 57:56

right and and so i that that seems unlikely let me take a step back here it's clever courts

Corey 58:02

courts tend to look pretty dimly on clever solutions to constitutional matters there's a doctrine called the doctrine of colorability which says you've got crayons in the box because you're a province right you're

Corey 58:12

you're trying to color in

Corey 58:14

in a power you do not have with the crayons you do have right effectively they are trying to do an end run around the constitution by doing this thing that the constitution allows that's actually there's a that doctrine of colorability is a bit of a catch-all around that to say like no you can't

Corey 58:29

actually do that you've got to look at the pith and substance of what you're trying to do here and if you are trying to tell us that it matters what the nation is right like that you are the quebec quebec is a nation like it either means nothing or it means something and if it means something and if you're looking at the constitution as a whole and you say this means something well

Corey 58:48

well then all of the other provinces should probably have a say in this as well right

Corey 58:51

right and if it means nothing it's probably not a constitutional amendment like it's it's super fascinating it's clever but i think the problem it sets up is not the immediate because all of the federal leaders have basically created a tontine with themselves like you know the last one alive can deal with this right yeah yeah right mealy mouth sort of yeah because

Corey 59:14

because the problem is it will be challenged at some point it it could It could go down, and then what? And then what? Like, can anybody in this fucking country think more than two moves ahead at this point? All of a sudden, the Court of Canada has rejected the amendments to the Constitution Quebec brought forward, and then Legault can say, like, well,

Corey 59:34

now what, guys? Right? Does this not just stoke the fires of separatism more because it just gets undone, and now it looks like there's no way for Quebec even to be a nation? The idea that Quebec's a nation gets pulled out of the constitution at a later date, that's really scary. It's scary to think about the chain of events that that could trigger for our country here. And so by kicking this can, I think we might be setting up the mother of all constitutional maelstroms down the road. Forget if Alberta could put like we're a distinct society based on sexual attraction to oil or anything dumb like that. what

Corey 1:00:08

does it mean if this fails the constitutional test two years from now and this thing that i just talked about hey all of a sudden quebec's on board gets

Corey 1:00:19

gets taken away what

Carter 1:00:23

but can they just can they take a more strident position in you

Carter 1:00:28

you know after the election like if i'm the political strategist uh for the liberals and i'm like oh fuck i don't want to deal with this i don't want to deal with this at all just just give this back to the governing party after the election it's not good i don't i don't want to deal with this during the election do they have the capacity just to take it out afterwards or is this something that absolutely must be dealt with now the

Corey 1:00:53

the problem is um

Corey 1:00:56

that at that point like a bill's passed it's in theory part of the constitution gets challenged you've got the problem of it being pulled out like i I think even at this moment, the problem is growing. The country, frankly, all of our federal leaders, I believe, should have taken a bit of a stronger line and said, well, hold on a minute here.

Corey 1:01:13

You know, I think a court reference would have been the appropriate approach to say, no, this isn't going to go any further without a court reference. Because it's too important, because we don't want there to be amendments to the Constitution that are in question. That, to me, makes an awful lot of sense. Again, we've done this for the Senate and other matters of this. And the Senate actually is also a perfect example of this colorability doctrine, right?

Corey 1:01:36

The federal government gets to appoint senators.

Corey 1:01:40

But the court said, you

Corey 1:01:42

you are trying to be too cute by half. You are trying to circumvent that unanimous clause that says that if you're going to change how the Senate is elected, you need all of the – you need the provinces on board by

Corey 1:01:53

by essentially just taking a power you do have, the appointment power, and reinterpreting it in a different way.

Corey 1:01:58

You've got to be really careful when you start dealing with constitutional matters. And there's no shortage of armchair constitutional scholars that have thought they've come up with a clever solution for the first time, only to find out that it's deeply unconstitutional because of hundreds of years of common law.

Zain 1:02:14

So, Corey, you know, one of the first things I asked in this segment was to scope out the landmine. So thank you for doing that. Not just the immediate ones, but the ones down the road, right, as you have. I mean, there's an element here. We're gambling with the Constitution. constitution. We're gambling with perhaps even minority rights and confederation overall. So I think that's, I think, I'm glad you put that out on the table. Carter, I want to extend on your comments, though. Let's talk about liberal strategists today based on what Trudeau said. Is his general comment, yeah, I guess they can, I'm going to paraphrase, the only slash best one that he has?

Carter 1:02:48

No, I think that, you know, Corey's actually identified a really good kick the can Stand down the road. Refer to the courts and make sure that it doesn't come back. Hope that it doesn't come back until after your election. That's the simplest way of dealing with it. We've always respected Quebec's autonomy and authority, but we just have to ask the courts what they think.

Corey 1:03:12

Yeah, like which amendment formula it is. We're

Corey 1:03:14

happy to work with them regardless of what they

Carter 1:03:16

they say. We just need a little help here. I mean, our legal team just wants to know exactly what it is that we're dealing with. Why

Zain 1:03:22

Why do you think that wasn't the instinctive response?

Carter 1:03:29

Fear and simplicity tends to govern politics.

Zain 1:03:34

They didn't go to O'Toole first. He also had the time, but he said the same thing. He believes that they have the opportunity. Are you surprised by his response? Almost the same one. I felt like this could be an opportunity for him. But once again, fear of alienating the vote-rich Quebec

Corey 1:03:52

province? Well, for O'Toole, you've got to keep in mind that there's a big overlap between Legault voters and O'Toole voters, at least theoretically, like if you're going to start building these things out. And

Corey 1:04:01

And so he's got a complicated situation there as well. But in a sense, Carter's fear and simplicity is probably a good way to think about it. It's simple.

Corey 1:04:11

Quebec has a quarter of the seats in

Corey 1:04:13

parliament, right? You want to be the fucking government. maybe you don't want to go to war with the province of quebec and legault knows this and this is why the timing of this is what it is to both of your points this this is a time tested tactic uh and on the fear side why

Corey 1:04:30

why everyone wants to avoid the fight they're in total duck and cover mode here but i really do think they're

Corey 1:04:37

they're doing a disservice by allowing this thing to just coast over because they are potentially and i would say even likely setting up a bigger problem down the the road, that will have to be dealt with either by them or by the next government. And that problem,

Corey 1:04:52

you know, these things. Today is the anniversary. It's May 20th. May 20th, 1980 was the first Quebec referendum.

Corey 1:04:59

These things are slow burns, I guess is my point. And when you start thinking tactically on matters of the Constitution, you're thinking tactically over years, and they've got ought to be smarter than this carter

Zain 1:05:12

carter be prescient for me i know this is your strength on the show how

Zain 1:05:16

how does this play out how does this play out right um we have an election that everyone and their dog is speculating will now fall somewhere in the in the uh will now fall in the fall of 21 um ballot box issue regional ballot box issue does does does this kind of is there something that one of the the federal leaders does to park it aside what do you think give me give me a sense of the beats on this between the summer and what it could mean for an anticipated fall 21 election? I

Carter 1:05:45

I don't think this is a ballot box issue. I think this sets a tone issue. And tone

Carter 1:05:50

tone is as important as necessarily a ballot box.

Zain 1:05:54

Describe that to me. What do you mean? In

Carter 1:05:55

In Quebec, you know, like in Alberta. So let me actually just use Alberta as an example. There are parties that are seen to be for Alberta and there are parties that are seen to be against Alberta. Alberta. And if this serves to help frame the Conservatives against Quebec or the Liberals against Quebec, it could be an election issue. I don't think that people will go to the ballot box saying, oh, you know what, I really wanted our ability to amend the Constitution unilaterally using Bill 96. I think that they go to the ballot box saying the Conservatives and O'Toole are against Quebec, or they go saying that

Carter 1:06:32

that Trudeau and the Liberals are against Quebec. I think that that that's the risk that these

Carter 1:06:36

these two parties are trying to avoid. And that's why they're acting the way that they're acting, right? So I don't think that this is a, quote unquote, ballot box issue. I think that this is instead just a simple problem of trying not to get branded with something you don't want to have sticking to you.

Zain 1:06:55

Corey, I'm going to ask you the same question. What are the beats on this story? What do you think this leads to over the course of the coming coming months before an anticipated election this fall.

Corey 1:07:06

Well, it looks like all of the federal leaders are cowering from this one right now. Now, Trudeau did give himself this out of saying this is the preliminary analysis. But

Corey 1:07:16

I think that the odds of him saying that was preliminary, and we've changed our minds, the

Corey 1:07:21

the odds of that went down the minute every other federal leader jumped on in some way, shape or form.

Corey 1:07:25

Because he was signaling, you know, he was signaling his intention of how he wanted to act, but giving himself enough of an open door to kind of walk out of it if he realized that he'd really stepped in it now that's not to say that there won't be beats on this i do think this is one of those things that could rile up people in other parts of the country too saying

Corey 1:07:43

saying like whoa hold on like michelle rempel's reaction is is not dissimilar from my own which is a weird space for me to be in yeah

Corey 1:07:52

but i think that there will be a cohort of people who say well hold on this doesn't seem right like Like there's the – I will often come back to the reasonable person test. When you explain this to a reasonable person, Quebec is unilaterally adding to the constitution that they're a nation.

Corey 1:08:08

Can they do that? What? That doesn't seem right. Like I remember Meech Lake. I remember Charlottetown, right? It just – it feels off. And so this does tend to be – this feels to me like it could be one of those issues, I should say, where

Corey 1:08:20

where there's almost a – like

Corey 1:08:22

like I don't know if people care enough for it to be considered a groundswell. but

Corey 1:08:26

i i'll be i'll be watching this i think the next act is coming from outside of the house of commons i guess that's the best way to put it explain

Zain 1:08:32

explain that to me what do you mean i

Corey 1:08:34

i mean if there's going to be uh anger that forces people to change their mind it's not going to be organized political anger because all of the parties have decided they're fine with this it will be their grassroots it will be average canadians standing up writing letters maybe pressure even from an elite class of professors and legal scholars saying this is nuts you can't do this carter

Zain 1:08:54

carter jump on to that point and then add to me additional unintended consequences of this story. Corey's listed a few around other provinces, around grassroots mobilization. So jump in on that. And then if you've got any of your own around unintended consequences, would like to hear a few of yours as well. Well,

Carter 1:09:09

Well, I think there could be some really predictable consequences, like Michelle Rempel-Garner jumping up and down and saying, this isn't fair. If Alberta did this, imagine what would happen. I think that's predictable. And given the state of politics in Alberta, I don't think it has any impact at all on the on the federal election but if if uh newfoundland and new brunswick uh start jumping up and down um that could have real implications for the liberals so um you know if new brunswick uh newfoundland and british columbia start getting riled that quebec has a special power that they don't have um then watch the liberals maybe have to shift back and do something like a referral uh to the courts uh like cory was saying the the predictable outrage in alberta isn't going to force anybody to change their political position cory

Zain 1:09:58

cory jump in and i think i've got one more question that i want to start with you on as well so go ahead yeah

Corey 1:10:03

yeah i mean it's

Corey 1:10:04

it's also possible when you look at it the courts

Corey 1:10:07

courts aren't going to act until there's actually something to react to but who has standing probably the other provinces i could see saskatchewan for example leading a legal case against it god i could even see alberta in different times but i think right now i

Corey 1:10:19

i i mean i imagine part of part of the government of alberta right now is thinking why didn't we fucking think of that that sounds great um but yeah i mean i i suspect that it will be a premier who says this isn't right and whose constituency thinks this isn't right look to saskatchewan and manitoba is too obvious uh captain canada's cory

Corey 1:10:39

cory captain's canada i guess plural

Zain 1:10:41

plural thank you for for adding that.

Zain 1:10:44

A question for you, Corey. I'll start with you on this. I'll give you a chance too, Carter. You know, you've talked about the down-the-road consequences, and perhaps I should even say down-the-road, you know, crisis that could come from something like this. Is there a political strategy for a federal leader that would not be rooted in fear, that would actually be around having your cake and eat it too, not alienating Quebec voters, not necessarily losing losing out on seat-rich Quebec, while simultaneously being a strong and ardent defender of perhaps, you know, what happens down the road? Is there a lane here? Is there a tight rope here that you could think of for a political leader, maybe even agnostic of party, because it seems like almost everyone's on the same fucking page on this issue, federally, that you could advise them and say, you know, do consider this as a route of action? I want to see if you kind of have any thoughts on that. And you too, Carter, before we kind of close this segment out.

Corey 1:11:40

Well, look, I think that the solution of kicking it to a reference and saying we're on board, but we want to make sure that it works and is not going to just fall to a court challenge down the road would be my recommended course of action. Because here's the thing.

Corey 1:11:54

Opposing the Quebec's a nation, that would be actually a reversal for all of the federal parties, right? Right. The idea of French language protections, I just don't believe that any of the parties are willing to willing to stand up and say, you know what, I'm going to fight this fight. And we're not going any further on this. You can say what you will about Quebec's language laws. But at this point, they're so well entrenched and established. I think the suggestion that you're not on board with French being the, quote, only official language of Quebec, that'd be difficult. And by the way, we didn't talk about that much, but the Constitution says that, you know, English

Corey 1:12:29

English and French can both be used in legal context. So what

Corey 1:12:32

what does that mean, again, knowing that you can't amend that part of the Constitution with the part you're trying to kind of call out at this moment? So I honestly, I think you've just got to say, conceptually,

Corey 1:12:46

conceptually, we're there, we've got to get on board on process, and you've got to make your process argument about, this

Corey 1:12:52

this is too important, we can't have this fallout later. But we're there with you. If the courts say it requires parliament on board, we're happy to push this through parliament. If the courts say you need seven plus 50, we're happy to work with the other provinces to try to get this in. And, you know, there will be risks there because people will say, well, Quebec should have the right to do this. This is so important to the cultural and the identity of this province. You might be also kicking up the, you know, the sovereigntist fires. But I guess my point is that could be a lot worse if it falls out of the Constitution other ways.

Zain 1:13:27

Carter, finish us off on this. The optimal response, the tightrope walk, is there something to add to that?

Carter 1:13:34

Yeah, I mean, I think that you just say, we

Carter 1:13:39

These are accepted things for Quebec. We agree. And we're going to make sure that we get it all done. So you can just simply take away the fight by saying

Carter 1:13:48

saying we agree. I'm not sure that unilateral approval is the way to go. So instead, what we're going to do is we're going to, you know, you want to reopen the Constitution? We'll reopen the Constitution for you. Let's see if it works.

Zain 1:14:01

Let's leave that segment there. Moving on to our final segment, our over, under, and our lightning round. Stephen Carter, it is all for you. This whole show is for you. Everything is for you. Overrated or underrated, the Bill 96 bear trap by Premier Legault.

Carter 1:14:15

I think it's probably overrated. It's going to be lost on the average Canadian. I think it's overrated.

Zain 1:14:22

Corey, overrated, underrated. We were just talking about the Bill 96, quote-unquote, bear trap by Premier Legault. It's

Corey 1:14:27

It's underrated. I just, I think Carter's not appreciating how contentious language issues always are in Quebec.

Zain 1:14:36

Corey, today, are you buying stock? Are you selling stock? If you had to hold it for at least, I'm going to give you the timeline, a month. If you had to hold it for a month, are you buying or selling stock on Avi Lewis?

Corey 1:14:52

Oh, boy. I think

Corey 1:14:59

I'll tell you why. I'll tell you why. Because I just don't know that to the average person in the riding, he's a big enough deal.

Zain 1:15:09

Interesting. Carter, I can't let you hold for seven days. It has to be a month. Yeah.

Zain 1:15:13

Are you buying or are you selling stock on Abby Lewis? I'm

Carter 1:15:15

I'm buying and I'm selling it in 32 days. I think that he's going to go up and then he's going to fall like a stone.

Zain 1:15:21

Okay. So the Bitcoin trajectory. Yeah. See this week. I learned

Carter 1:15:31

Learn how to pronounce these. Just think how good that would have been if I nailed it. Carter,

Zain 1:15:34

Carter, sticking with you, yes or no, are we going to see the Steve Allen report in the year 2021?

Corey 1:15:41

Corey, are we going to see it in the year 2021? Yes, we will see it, and it's going to be dumb. So as soon as they get this report, they've got three months they can hold on to it before they release it. Corey,

Zain 1:15:50

Corey, you mentioned this earlier on the podcast, but by this time tomorrow, Canada might be leading the United States on first dose vaccination percentages as tethered to our overall population as a percentage. Is that overrated or underrated

Corey 1:16:04

underrated in your mind?

Corey 1:16:05

Overrated. We are still quite a bit back in second doses. Now listen, on doses per 100, we're doing really well. And if you're going to sit there and say, look at all of these quote unquote nations ahead of us, like Gibraltar, you're barking up the wrong tree. When you look at comparable nations, we're doing fine. We're doing quite well. But let's not pat ourselves too hard on the back. Let's not dislocate our shoulder in the process. We got a bit of a ways to go here. And we've got a long ways to go on second doses. Carter,

Zain 1:16:33

Carter, we're going to surpass the United States more than likely by tomorrow. Our second dose is, to Corey's point, I think still sit in the single digit percentages. So I think five or six, something like that, as opposed to the U.S.'s 30-ish, 40-ish. Corey, you may want to look into that. But regardless, Carter, us overtaking the states by percentage on first dose, overrated or underrated in your mind? I

Carter 1:16:54

I think it's rated about right. I mean, you've got, you know, people, this

Carter 1:17:00

this is about vaccine hesitancy at this point and how high we can get it. So catching up and seeing that trajectory, you know, the curve pointing upwards as it is, that's really good news. And I think that, you know, the next few weeks, Canadians have booked hundreds of thousands of vaccinations and that's nothing but good.

Zain 1:17:20

Carter, last question here. I'm going to stick with you on it. Premier Kenney here in Alberta saying that paid sick leave could be a job killer. The politics of it on a scale of 1 to 10, 1 being horrible, 10 being excellent, amazing politics. What would you give Jason Kenney on the politics question of his statement that paid sick leave could be a job killer?

Carter 1:17:39

Literally virtually every Canadian has had to take some sort of sick leave over the last year and a half, and it's a job killer. Go fuck yourself, Premier. Like this is a there was a bad statement that he got away with because people aren't paying attention right now. I think that it is a terrible statement by someone who, frankly, wants to get some street cred back. And he didn't. He's an idiot.

Zain 1:18:05

Corey, the politics on it, one to ten for Jason Kenney on paid sick leave.

Corey 1:18:10

Well, I think to Carter's point, he was probably talking to a different group than than middle Alberta. He was talking to this base who he's a little bit shaky with. So I'm going to give it a five, because as much as I think it was absolutely tone deaf with most Albertans, there's a couple of countervailing points here. One is that

Corey 1:18:29

that so many of us have paid sick leave already because of our employment contracts, right? And so you're not going to immediately feel that rage. You know, there's the selfish root of you not feeling that rage, but that's a reality. and then the other is that there

Corey 1:18:45

there is a group that he is trying to talk to and keep on side at this moment so i don't think that he was keen to introduce a very sensible program that would pay people to uh to stay home if they're sick but you know i mean the internet is just full of snark over this particular matter you know it's yeah why have a job killer you know when you can have a people killer being the most common kind of rejoinder here so we're

Zain 1:19:11

we're gonna leave it there That's a wrap on Episode 935 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Velji. With me, as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter, and we'll see you next time.

SPEAKER_00 1:19:27

Free fries when you get vaccinated?

SPEAKER_00 1:19:34

You're saying I could get this? These delicious fries?

SPEAKER_00 1:19:38

But there's also a burger element to this.

SPEAKER_00 1:19:44

Let me check with Bill Neidhart. Is it too early in the day to eat a burger? This could be breakfast.

SPEAKER_00 1:19:51

want you to look at this and think about, again,

SPEAKER_00 1:19:56

some people love hamburgers, some don't. I really want to respect all ways of life. But if this is appealing to you, just think of this when you think of vaccination.

SPEAKER_00 1:20:10

getting a very good feeling about

SPEAKER_00 1:20:14

vaccination right this moment.

Transcript