Episode 825: The most important people in British Columbia

SPEAKER_00 0:01

This is The Strategist, episode 825. My name is Zain Velji. With me, as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Guys, how are you?

Carter 0:10

I'm a little angry, Zain, if I'm honest. I have been sitting in this chair with this microphone for 48 hours waiting

SPEAKER_00 0:17

waiting for you two to show up.

SPEAKER_00 0:19

This is true. We did not update. We did not update you. Send

SPEAKER_00 0:22

Send me a text.

SPEAKER_00 0:24

We did not update

Carter 0:25

you. Send me a text.

SPEAKER_00 0:26

That we were not going to record on Sunday. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 0:28

Yeah. What's the good news, Corey? So

Corey 0:30

all worked out really well because we got to watch the BC leaders debate and we can pretend it was the plan. We can pretend we were always intending to

SPEAKER_00 0:37

to align our commentary.

SPEAKER_00 0:39

Let's not tell them that we had scheduling conflicts on Sunday and let's just like pretend like everything's normal. That's a great idea. Why do you call

Corey 0:46

call them scheduling conflicts?

SPEAKER_00 0:47

They are scheduling conflicts.

Corey 0:48

conflicts. This is a euphemism for Zane doesn't want to come talk to me and Steven. This

SPEAKER_00 0:53

This is not a scheduling conflict. This is just like this white-on-white crime, by the way, is what I'm calling it. Because, of course, I'm a white guy and you guys can't tell. Otherwise, that's a John Horgan joke. Just so you know. Great.

SPEAKER_00 1:07

That's good. The fact that we're not canceled as a podcast of three white guys. But we wouldn't know. We could be anything because I don't see color. I don't actually know if you're even – I don't even know what you guys are. I'm so glad I'm

SPEAKER_00 1:20

This is true. This is true. OK, let's move it on to our first segment, a little west and a little east. Guys, I want to talk about not just the B.C. election in B.C., but I also want to talk about the election to the east of us in Saskatchewan. And I want to talk about both of them because there's some similarities, some interesting similarities. But let's start here with B.C. and let's start with debate night, Hogan, because I know all three of us watched it. But I know you are very keen to give us a summary of your thoughts first. And I know Carter said, listen, I want to react because I've got so much information about this debate that I actually want to go second and I want to react to what Hogan says. So, Hogan, you know, John Horgan is 18 points up heading into this debate. Andrew Wilkinson, who's a leader of the B.C. liberals, had to make a big play to try to gain some ground and perhaps gain some name recognition and relevancy. Let's start here. Did he do it tonight?

Corey 2:23

I learned a lot about BC watching this election or this debate. I learned everything in BC costs $6 billion. Spending on COVID was $6 billion. Subsidies for fossil fuel are $6 billion. PST reduction would create a $6 billion hole in revenue. That's really neat. It's neat how everything is $6 billion in BC. I also learned that Wilkinson is not a man I want want to be in a room with for 90 minutes um this is not necessarily any shot against the man personally but uh his presence at the debate i found uh drifted between uh grading and you know another word for grading there was no drift he had monotony in his voice the entire way through and um and for all of those reasons i think horgan did exactly what he needed to do now obviously well

Corey 3:11

well maybe not obviously but horgan had the one gaffe that everybody is talking about about right now where he said i don't see color which we've already kind of hinted at um which was very woke to say in the 80s when there were united color of benedict ads that showed people in like exaggerated garb walking around as as their idea of multiculturalism but not something you want to be saying in 2020 for sure um

Corey 3:34

you know and i and i think that what can i say the uh first no was that was my first exposure to her and it was really good she did really well but she did really well graded on a curve Horgan was the clear winner in absolute terms for me Carter

SPEAKER_00 3:48

Carter I know as someone who also you know yourself in this case who also watched the debate that you've got many thoughts yourself um I know you've got you you've watched the debate you studied it um but maybe I'll zoom out of the debate for a second just to kind of you know throw you a curveball right because that's what I do Carter um Andrew Wilkinson walked into this with with very little name recognition, 18 to 20 points down depending on which polls you believe, some version of a sexist roast scandal, which you can perhaps explain to the audience if they are not already familiar with it. We've talked on our other podcast about political Hail Marys. Tonight was the only televised leaders debate for him. We didn't see any version of a Hail Mary. Was that a mistake in your mind?

Carter 4:37

I don't know that uh Andrew Wilkinson knows that he's in trouble um one of the interesting things about Andrew Wilkinson and let me tell you Corey I know Andrew Wilkinson Andrew Wilkinson is a friend of mine and

Carter 4:49

and you sir are no Andrew Wilkinson um

Corey 4:51

um well I'm no doctor I

Corey 4:53

I did hear many times in the debate that he is a doctor yeah

Carter 4:58

yeah I mean uh he and he's

SPEAKER_00 5:00

he's my only black friend just so you know

SPEAKER_00 5:03

because i don't see color but i've heard this is

Carter 5:06

is gonna go on all night right the whole

SPEAKER_00 5:08

whole you're gonna be upset about

SPEAKER_00 5:11

i feel like i'm the only one that can say it and even then we'll find out after we put this up online if i'm getting canceled but

Carter 5:17

but we'll find out go ahead carter you're so getting canceled um here's

Carter 5:22

here's the here's the thing about andrew wilkinson he is not a great campaigner he's not someone who who instills a lot of confidence in I ran Mike DeYoung's leadership campaign against Andrew, and I helped put together the deal between Mike DeYoung and Andrew Wilkinson that I like to think actually caused my candidate to lose.

Carter 5:43

work. Yeah, I'm pretty much an expert. The

Carter 5:48

challenge with Andrew Wilkinson, he never was really able to capture people's attention. Him being a doctor, him being a lawyer, these things are interesting elements

Carter 5:57

elements of a person, but it's not anything that shows any soul. And he doesn't have any soul. And so watching him in a debate, watching him interact with regular human beings, even the fact that he didn't step in on that sexist comment that was made by, I think it was Jane Thornthwaite, but he

Carter 6:18

didn't step in. He didn't stop it. He didn't see that there was an incident happening and he didn't know what to do.

Carter 6:24

And all of this kind of leads up to a picture of a person who isn't really leading, which I find very frustrating because when you look at people on paper, you can see all the qualifications in the world. But just because you've got a lot of qualifications doesn't mean you can step onto that debate stage tonight and enthrall people. You know, him talking about the pregnancy that, you know, he was able to deliver a baby and therefore he has more understanding of of how uh minorities are experiencing the world you

Carter 6:53

you know talk about pumping yourself up while while pointing out other people you know like how he made himself the center of the story it just misses the point entirely and that's what i'm i'm frustrated by him because again and i i worked with candidates that are on paper excellent lots of candidates that are on paper excellent that when you get them into the arena they can't perform. And that's one of the great

Carter 7:17

great challenges of trying to find the perfect political candidate, is finding people who have

Carter 7:21

have the resume, but

Carter 7:23

but also have the capacity to be leaders.

SPEAKER_00 7:27

Corey, do you agree with that analysis of what you've seen of Wilkinson thus far, great on paper, just not able to perform? Or do you feel like there's maybe something else or something more, perhaps, at play?

Corey 7:37

Well, we've talked about this in different contexts, but being great at other things doesn't make you great at politics. And And in fact, it can cut the other way, because you're used to a world that makes a little bit more sense. It's a little less broad. It's a little less like theater, right? When you think about law, when you think about medicine, when people think about law, they think of Perry Mason, and they think of these big courtroom expositions. But the reality is quite different, right? You need neutral, accurate language. And that's also fundamental to a good bedside manner if you're a physician.

Corey 8:07

You're not going to want to be at 11 and then down at zero and just bouncing off the walls here. And when you

Corey 8:14

you become a politician, some of those habits that you have developed over a very successful career perhaps do not serve you so well. When you see John Horgan talk, John Horgan, he's outsized, right? He's got the gift of the gab. He can expand

Corey 8:29

expand on things. He can make a joke. He can – he calls you by your first name. How many sentences did he end in that debate saying, man, which is very typical of him. And he's like, I'm just trying to defend the coast, man. And hey, man, and all of that. You know, he's the guy who you legitimately would want to have a beer with. And certainly relative

Corey 8:49

relative to Wilkinson, who was the guy you'd wait for the next elevator if he was in it, right? Right. So so, I mean, it was a really dramatic contrast. But let's be really clear.

Corey 9:01

The skills that John Horgan had serve him well in politics. They wouldn't necessarily have served him well in law or medicine. And so I like in some ways it's a bit unfortunate. It's the nature of our system. Campaigning is a prerequisite to getting a job that has a different skill set. And so that's unfortunate for Wilkinson. But it was really on high display tonight. You saw a man who didn't connect on a political level with people. Certainly, that's what I saw. And I don't have a ton of exposure to BC. I'm doing my best to be kind of the uninformed British Columbian here, which is effectively what I am here.

Carter 9:34

Well, you being uninformed is pretty common.

Carter 9:39

Yeah, you're playing to type.

SPEAKER_00 9:41

I want to talk to you for a second, because, you know, one of Stephen Carter's political rules, if I can call it that, because we've had several of them introduced over the the course of this show, is you never love being the strategist on the leading campaign. You always love to be second place, come from behind, less pressure, more latitude, more flexibility. Now that John Horgan's passed this leaders debate, and he did well, he's got an 18 point lead. He doesn't seem to be paying any political price for calling this election early. Could I suggest to To you, this might be a rare exception where you would want to be in this campaign right now running it. Or would you still see a potential danger for Horgan being so far out in front with with so with less time on the clock than we had three weeks ago when we first talked about this? Well,

Carter 10:32

Well, I mean, we were talking about Hail Mary's on on you, the people, I think last time we were chatting. And I think the problem that Wilkinson's got right now is he's in Hail Mary territory. I like running campaigns that have a year or six months or so to develop from underdog status to winning. I like to be in front with about four or five days to go. Well, you know, I just don't see a path for Wilkinson to be in front with four or five days to go. You know, some sort of a shift in

Carter 11:05

in momentum would be spectacular. But I

Carter 11:08

don't see it happening. And I think that the party itself doesn't see it happening.

Carter 11:11

You know, you've got Wilkinson

Carter 11:14

Wilkinson hasn't done the work that needed to be done a

Carter 11:17

a year ago to get him to this place. You know, maybe it wasn't the right play to be supportive of the NDP government during the COVID crisis. Maybe he should have taken a more adversarial stance. Maybe time will come to show that what Rachel Notley did with taking on an adversarial positioning with Jason Kenney was the right play. I personally liked Andrew Wilkinson's stance. I thought it was a time for government and opposition to come together for the people of their province. But then Horgan goes ahead and takes advantage of that opportunity and is now trying to turn his minority government into a majority government. And I think he's well positioned to do so. So it is a significant challenge to imagine that Andrew Wilkinson is able to come back from this. And I would not want to be cast in the role of trying to resurrect

Carter 12:07

resurrect this campaign. It feels like it is well

Carter 12:11

well beyond that which can be easily resurrected.

SPEAKER_00 12:18

Corey, it seems like a probable win, but maybe put out some risks for us. What are the risks he has? 10 days to go, whatever you believe, 18 to 20 point public opinion lead holding steady. What are you thinking about the risk factors for John Horgan?

Corey 12:33

John Horgan's risks come from the Green Party and the idea that those points could start to be shaved off to another political party and thus split the vote and allow Wilkinson to come up the middle, so to speak. It was a really, really strong performance by Sonia First Note tonight. I didn't know her from Adam. I'll fully confess that. But I was

Corey 12:57

was quite surprised by the almost perfectly consistent eloquence on matters, the ability to be on point, the ability to look like you wanted to elevate the conversation, even the ability to kind of speak

Corey 13:11

speak directly on some tough issues, or at least listen to an Albertan. They seemed like they were almost impossible stances to take, but I understand British Columbia is a different world. There were moments where I thought she kind of, in her tone and kind of her breathlessness,

Corey 13:25

breathlessness, kind of, you know, trended into a Green leader parody of herself. But on the main, it was a really strong performance. And if you're Horgan, that's

Corey 13:37

that's got to worry you, because where she is going to capture votes and where the Greens are going to capture votes is from you, is from your backyard and your party. So that would be the risk that's out there right now after tonight. In particular, if this sense that Horgan made a gaffe expands,

Corey 13:57

expands, if this becomes a week of stumbles for him all of a sudden after a really strong performance, she

Corey 14:04

she could be a real benefactor and you

Corey 14:07

you could end up in a very similar situation to where you were last election.

SPEAKER_00 14:11

Carter, I want to jump over to Saskatchewan in a second to maybe do some competitors and to talk about that race a little bit. But before I do that, Corey's tweaked on something. You know, what do you kind of make of the large lead that a candidate has and what that could say to turnout? out. You know, often we see, you know, large leads leading to a lot of supporters potentially staying at home, or at least that second concentric circle, which is supportive, registers themselves on the public opinion polls, but decides whatever 18 point lead, my vote doesn't matter. What concern do you have right now with that being the case for for John Horgan in this BC election?

Carter 14:54

Well, he's gonna win, right?

Carter 14:55

right? So if you're his supporter, and you're just kind of it's a weak support, you're like, I'm not going to go out and do do anything. And on top of that, the election day doesn't happen for, I think it's two more weeks. Yeah,

Carter 15:06

24th. 24th, right? So 11 days. So in 11 days, the election's going to happen. There's been an amazing pickup on the number of people who've asked for mail-in ballots. I think it was 20,000 in the last election. It's 500,000 in this election. What about the people who didn't request a mail-in ballot, right? What about those people? Will they actually go to the polls? What if we see an uptick in the number of COVID cases as a result of Thanksgiving weekend? Everybody went home to their own Trump-like super spreader event, and then they go back out to their workplaces, and all of a sudden, everything's starting to pick up a little bit, and there's more COVID, and there's more fear, and now people don't go out to vote. I think that that's reasonable. I also think that it is reasonable that the people who are selecting or asking for mail-in ballots are not necessarily 100% representative. I think that the most likely case is those are the most committed voters, right?

Carter 16:04

right? People who always vote, will vote, are committed to vote, and therefore form the base of each party. So

Carter 16:11

So if the base of each party is roughly equal, then

Carter 16:15

then the mail-in portion could be equal. And then, you know, what happens if If there is a COVID spike prior to the 24th, you know, there is a turnout problem. And right now, if I was running John Horgan's campaign, I

Carter 16:31

would probably be shifting everything I have to GOTV.

Carter 16:35

It's all about getting out the vote. It's all about trying to make sure that people are voting early when and if possible and that you're not going to lose any more of those votes to

Carter 16:47

to the Green Party. Because, you know, if Corey's correct, and I think that there's a more than reasonable chance that he, you know, he's a broken clock, right, twice a day, you know, like, he could be right, that some votes are going to shift to the Green Party.

Carter 17:04

Get people to vote now before they get that opportunity to shift. So that's what I'd be focused on for the next few days. Corey

Corey 17:14

uh well i just want to be really clear it's an 18 point lead horgan's winning this thing barring something really dramatic happening and i don't think we saw anything dramatic tonight and to your first question that means horgan won the debate here's my grab bag of other interesting things horgan had i think the cringiest moment of the debate not you know the i don't see color line although that that is arguably the cringiest but when he said he wanted to consult the most important people in british columbia the people of bc that will stick with me for the rest of my life i will be haunted by the the

Corey 17:44

the madness of that statement

Corey 17:47

uh the format was weird uh asking each other questions but i really liked it and i haven't seen it regularly but i i hope we see more of it going forward and i hope we see it in alberta

Corey 17:57

um horgan you know had just by far the smoothest delivery his you sold the land man comment was really solid uh when he was talking about uh you

Corey 18:08

you know some project what the hell do i know I was at

SPEAKER_00 18:10

at a hospital, I believe. Oh,

Corey 18:11

Oh, right, a hospital in Surrey, I think. And there were two Alberta shout-outs. I think that was two more than any other province got. So we mentioned a privatized auto insurance.

Corey 18:21

Don't do that, BC. Don't do it.

Corey 18:25

Don't do that. And Wilkinson growing up in apparently the liliest white stereotypical southern Alberta town possible because he's like, I came from Alberta. I didn't know people of color and diversity. Listen, let's just kill that stereotype right now. I know Wilkinson's a fair bit older than myself

Corey 18:42

myself and even Mr. Carter here. Easy.

Corey 18:46

Easy, right? But Alberta is one of the most diverse provinces in the country.

Corey 18:52

Also, Wilkinson bad line. He talked about something being a giant hot air balloon without much in it. So what, is there not hot air in it? I don't understand. Bad metaphors, guys. BC is definitely sending its leaders to remedial metaphor camp. That's for sure.

SPEAKER_00 19:09

nicely done hogan um

SPEAKER_00 19:10

um like that yeah that's good carter carter also had his own list of takeaways but i know he he's too humble to share them that's true you

Carter 19:17

you know what this is just this is

SPEAKER_00 19:19

is on bread i want to i want to move to saskatchewan for a second um there's a few similarities as to what's happening in saskatchewan so to to bring everyone up to speed the saskatchewan election is two days after the bc one monday the 26th you've got an incumbent in scott moe and the the Saskatchewan party that, according to the only one public opinion poll that's out right now, are up 22 points. You've got an opponent, in this case, the NDP, who happens to be a doctor, Dr. Ryan Miley. And you've also got the political dynamic here in Saskatchewan that BC shares, which is the official, quote unquote, federal version of the conservatives and the liberals in each province have formed not a net new party, what in Saskatchewan they have, the Saskatchewan Party, kind of housing and encasing both Fed libs and Fed conservatives in one party. But in B.C., the B.C. liberals are a coalition of the B.C. liberals and a

SPEAKER_00 20:16

a coalition of federal liberals and federal conservatives. So there's some similarities that we see here, incumbents seeming to be out on top, some dynamics of the political parties, priorities the fact that the two chief opponents are doctors i wanted to throw all that out there as like a smorgasbord and see if there's anything you guys wanted to pick up on what you're hearing here in saskatchewan and carter maybe i'll go to you first well

Carter 20:40

well i think that first of all let me just tell you how wrong i was i expected there to be a price that would be paid by the ndp for calling early saskatchewan they had to call their you know saskatchewan had to do their election uh It was mandated by their election laws. So I didn't expect Scott Moda to have to suffer a penalty. Neither government is suffering a penalty. And arguably, there was no penalty paid in New Brunswick. Obviously, no penalty either. So it's surprising to me because I think that the voters, I thought the voters would have a higher concern for their own individual health. And I'm also very interested, the

Carter 21:21

the complaint that seems to be rising around Scott Moe and the Saskatchewan Party is just some of the personal issues that are associated with the party. You know, I think it was 10% of Saskatchewan MLAs, Saskatchewan Party MLAs, had a drunk driving offense. You know, Scott Moe himself has drunk driving offenses. He also, you know, so these things are in some cases considered to be disqualifying. In Saskatchewan,

Carter 21:52

Saskatchewan, they're not even having an impact on the race. So I'm finding that very interesting to watch because obviously the people of Saskatchewan are happy with their government. They're going to return their government. There's been very little movement. There's very little chance. And I don't think there's going to be movement, you know, for a Monday election, which is, from my point of view, the proper day to hold a Canadian election. That's the real date. Well,

SPEAKER_00 22:18

Well, thank you for that very barn burner of a closing thought, Carter. You know, the first thing that Scott Moe needs to do, Corey and I know what he needs to do. Day one, if he wins again, he

SPEAKER_00 22:27

he needs to have a meeting with Mothers Against Drunk Driving. You know, those people,

SPEAKER_00 22:31

people, they show up. You know, it's a great organization. Can you tell us a little bit more about that, Stephen? It could make a big difference.

Corey 22:39

difference. Could you make the meeting happen, Stephen? Could you make the

SPEAKER_00 22:42

the meeting happen? I'm not talking to you too, Rob. It was excellent. Turn off

SPEAKER_00 22:48

Anything to grab onto what I've just said here? Like, is this a – do

SPEAKER_00 22:52

do both elections show us the power of incumbency? Is that too simple of a distillation as to what we're seeing here? What do you kind of make of what's happening in Saskatchewan and perhaps comparing that with BC?

Corey 23:05

know, Zane, I was this close to congratulating you for talking about the election as a smorg in Saskatchewan. I thought that was brilliant. It was inspired. It was subtle, but it really spoke to me. But then you had to say something absurd like, is this talking about the power of incumbency? Just get out of here with such nonsense. sense. It's not about incumbency. It's about affinity. And it's about the, you know, the chokehold conservatism has on Saskatchewan right now after the merger of their, you know, liberal party and their conservative party. The

Corey 23:38

The NDP will eventually find their way back into power. I have no doubt about that in Saskatchewan. It does not appear that this will be the election if recent public opinion polls will be believed. But you are certainly seeing a bit of, you

Corey 23:50

you know, I guess I say a policy and character nihilism in the Saskatchewan election. When you look at the preponderance

Corey 23:57

preponderance of the conversation, it's, you know, drunk driving charges and, you know, inappropriate behavior by young candidates and personal

Corey 24:07

personal issues by person A, person B, person C. But none of it's mattering. None of it's making a dent. We are in kind of dulled

Corey 24:16

dulled times to such personal indiscretions. The president of the United States has really paved the way for assholes everywhere. But I think right now, it's just a low-interest election. There's so much going on in the world, and

Corey 24:34

don't want to change horses in midstream, and everything seems fine, and they're Saskatchewan party supporters. My God, the name of their province is the name of this party. By the way, aside,

Corey 24:43

aside, I've always hated that. That should just be against the rules. You should not be able to have a party whose affinity is the province or the jurisdiction. But it is, and it's done a good job of wrapping itself in the flag. So here we are. I think this is one that we're going to forget, but

Corey 24:59

but hopefully we'll learn from it, and the next election will be better. Carter,

SPEAKER_00 25:04

Carter, close us out with this. A bit of a task for you, but I'm curious to get your thoughts. From what we've seen thus far in B.C. and Saskatchewan, whether that be what Corey would call the power of affinity, what I'd call the power of incumbency, whether that be that, whether it be debate performances, debate format, campaign strategy, tactics, everything that we've seen based on these two elections thus far three weeks in. Anything that you think is going to be ported to our next federal race? Anything you found interesting or novel or perhaps even as a cadence or a trend that you think might find itself in our next federal race, which, you know, as speculators say, could have happened as early as, you know, the first quarter of 2021?

Carter 25:52

Mind numbing boredom. Is that something that could be translated? I mean, the I don't we don't get to see.

Carter 26:00

So because of COVID, we're not seeing the same races. We're not seeing

Carter 26:04

those, those leaders buses, we see instead, these campaigns

Carter 26:10

campaigns that are underneath, right? So there is still leader events, or, you know, they're, the leaders are still getting out there, they're still getting their message out, they're still getting they're still talking to the media.

Carter 26:20

But there is no energy to it. And there's no underlying kind of, you

Carter 26:26

feeling of engagement and excitement by those that are a part of the system and I worry that that's going to have some sort of impact on the overall voter turnouts and I think that that unfortunately could be taken as a signal for

Carter 26:41

for relatively weak incumbents that maybe it is time to call another election because there is nothing quite like you know the prospect of a relatively easy walk through an election to force a governing party to walk up the road to see the governor general or lieutenant governor. So I worry that the pieces that are going to be taken from essentially these three elections that have occurred in the latter half or the second half here of this last

Carter 27:11

last quarter, I think that the message that may be taken away is there's some some easy picking out there for incumbents. Let's go take it. And I

Carter 27:21

I just, I don't like that message. I wish the electorate in one of these provinces stood up and said, you know what, this is not the time. This is not the time to play politics. And I'm surprised that they didn't. I'm surprised

Carter 27:33

surprised and disappointed, to be honest.

SPEAKER_00 27:36

Corey, I'm going to ask that same question, perhaps phrased a little differently. If you're the federal liberals watching what's going on here, is there anything think you maybe want to extract from what you've seen strategically, tonally, cadence-wise, tactically? What are your thoughts?

Corey 27:52

Yeah, Carter hit the nail on the head. What we've learned from New Brunswick and what we've learned from British Columbia, for sure, is that there are no consequences for calling an election in

Corey 28:01

in a pandemic. So if you're sitting high in the polls, but you worry that

Corey 28:04

that that will all disappear the minute a writ is dropped, that

Corey 28:08

that does not seem to be the the situation. And you've got enough of a sample set at this point that you can be fairly confident about that if you're Justin Trudeau. I

Corey 28:17

I do think it makes an election more likely if John Horgan just walks into, you know, an overwhelming victory in 11 days, which looks like it will be the case.

SPEAKER_00 28:30

Let's move it on to our next segment. Our next segment, guys, I know you've been waiting for it. it's fine fabulous or fucked we're doing it again we've got a lot on the agenda we've got so many things that uh that's uh even over the last 48 hours when steven has been waiting at his mic that have happened that i uh that i want to cover so this is a segment that's kind of our catch-all uh if you're new to the show welcome let me explain to you how this works i will talk to you about something that i will talk to steven and cory about something that happened over the the past 10 days or so. And they will tell me from the perspective of the party or the individual I mentioned, whether it was fine, whether it was fabulous, or whether it was totally fucked from a strategic angle. And no better way to explain it other than to just get right into it. And Stephen, I'm going to start with you. Jason Kenney today said he's firing 11,000 AHS workers as part of a reduction, no frontline workers, including nurses or doctors, but custodial staff, janitorial staff, et cetera, as part of AHS will be let go in the midst of this pandemic. So if you're Jason Kenney, is this fine, fabulous or fucked?

Carter 29:37

I think it's fucked. I mean, first of all, this idea that custodians aren't in some fashion frontline services, that receptionists aren't frontline services just because the work isn't done by a doctor or a nurse doesn't mean that it's not something that is front facing. Have you ever been to a hospital? Do you want to see a a dirty hospital does anybody want to walk down the hall when the when when the hospital hasn't been cleaned now they say they're going to outsource it which is fine whatever gonna hand it off to a private company all that basically means is that you're going to try and get around union union deals and pay less money um that's not great for our economy right now you're going to take let's say 20 of of someone's earnings off the table these people aren't making a lot lot of money in the beginning, and now they're going to have less money. When people have less money, they spend less money. And

Carter 30:28

And so 11,000 people in the province of Alberta in the next year are going to have less money to spend, and that's going to hurt our economy. This is also the time when we have double-digit unemployment rates. And I don't, you know, we have effective unemployment rates, we have underemployment rates, we have less money, tremendously less money in our system than we've had for a long time. This is the wrong time to be taking out your

Carter 30:54

your ideological, let's outsource this kind of thinking, and don't tell me they're not frontline workers. That really upset me. They're not frontline workers. Just because they're not giving you a shot in the arm doesn't mean that they're not essential to the service. So I'm just frustrated. I think it's a bad move, and I think it's also going to hurt and cost them in the long run.

SPEAKER_00 31:17

Corey, same question to you. The 11,000 AHS workers, if you're Kenny, is this fine? Is this fabulous or is this fucked?

SPEAKER_00 31:25

I think it's fucked.

Corey 31:26

fucked. Carter's reasons stand and I won't repeat them. The problem I have more foundationally on strategy is like, what are we up to now? Like a 30 front war? It's only slightly hyperbole at this point. How many different fights

Corey 31:42

fights are you going to start before they get concluded? None of these issues are concluded. There's still ongoing tensions with the doctors. There's increased tensions with UNA, the

Corey 31:53

the nurses. And now we're just going to pile on all of the support workers in the healthcare system. I just, you're

Corey 32:00

you're at total war on every single front possible with a healthcare system during a pandemic. And there's just a foundational absurdity to this. And I think it is something that I would counsel the premier is that you have to know when to pivot, right? This was a train on the track, quite clearly. There's the Ernst & Young report. There's the recommendations as to how transformation can happen in the healthcare system. him. I am sympathetic to the argument that healthcare is quite expensive in Alberta. I actually am. I think there are ways you can adjust that over time that doesn't involve war with everybody, but that's a bit of a different issue.

Corey 32:41

But that you would have this report, this report would drop, and you would either hold on to it till now and think this is the good moment, or you would get this report and say, yeah,

Corey 32:50

yeah, okay, let's just act regardless. It to me shows an alarming inability to pivot. This is not the same world that this world was when this report was commissioned. And, and I think, as

Corey 33:04

as is often said, and is so often true, discretion can be the better part of valor here, that the government should have just shelved this report for a few months, maybe a year. This

Corey 33:15

This was not the time to start yet another fight in the healthcare care sector in alberta i'm

SPEAKER_00 33:20

i'm going to move to uh to bc we've talked a lot about bc but andrew wilkinson his campaign did something uh today which was on the uh same day as the leaders debate that morning they released their platform and

SPEAKER_00 33:34

and i want to talk about that like we've talked about what's going to happen with wilkinson he's more than likely going to lose but i want to kind of double click on this strategic element because i'm curious to get your thoughts cory i'll stick stick with you. Doing that fine, fabulous, fucked if you're Wilkinson, too cute by half, what do you kind of make of that strategic play by the campaign?

Corey 33:53

It's fabulous if you don't want anyone to read your platform.

Corey 33:57

not a good thing if you want to own as many media cycles as possible and potentially win the election. Dropping your platform on the same day as nobody even referenced his platform in the debate. I mean, it's ridiculous. it was a total fail if the idea was to tie these two things together uh but if that's your plan then fabulous carter

SPEAKER_00 34:17

carter same question to you if you're dropping the platform from a strategic standpoint what did you make fine fabulous or fucked i

Carter 34:24

i sometimes get in trouble because i i don't answer the question properly so is dumb as fuck uh does that also fit into the category if i was to if i was to select that as the option is

SPEAKER_00 34:36

is your justification the same as cory's or do you you have a different one because i have a different i have a different one tell me because

Carter 34:41

this was thanksgiving weekend in canada right so we just went through thanksgiving weekend that's what left me sitting at this microphone by myself for 48 straight hours um everybody

Carter 34:52

everybody was with their family everybody was talking about politics we're not supposed to talk about politics we're not supposed to uh discuss politics at the table you know no politics no religion at the table we always talk politics and religion at the table that's why they're verboten right that's why people say you're not allowed to do it it's because we always do it so an opportunity to take a big platform idea a platform plank and talk about it uh over the over the thanksgiving weekend you waited until after that to release your platform and then you did it on the day of the debate when no one's going to talk about it and the entire media is going to cover something else there is either there are dead bodies in this platform if this is what you've chosen to do because that is all that can be in there is dead bodies uh because you don't want anybody to fucking find them that's how fucking stupid this is i'm okay i'm done uh

SPEAKER_00 35:46

uh i might i might i might invoke some more steven rage and keep it on this train because i suspect i might know the answer to this question too um the

SPEAKER_00 35:56

the ndp voted with the the federal ndp we're moving federally Let me just clarify that. The federal NDP voted with the liberals to shut down the we investigation going forward. If you're the NDP, is this fine? Is this fabulous? Is this fucked?

SPEAKER_00 36:14

I'm sticking with you, Carter. If

Carter 36:15

If it's the NDP, you know, the NDP, I

Carter 36:18

I don't know what they're getting for this, but they've got to be getting something good, because otherwise, why would you bother? um you know you're

Carter 36:28

you're not winning anything i guess so maybe you're trying to take some wind out of the conservative sales but for me this is just you

Carter 36:36

know i'm you're giving me back to back to back fucks but what's the point i don't understand what

SPEAKER_00 36:43

what the point of this is

SPEAKER_00 36:44

never want to hear that from you ever again just to let you know really

Carter 36:49

three back you gave me back to back to back fucks

Corey 36:53

that's good guys can't

Carter 36:54

can't be the name of it that's all i know this is hi

Carter 36:57

it's hi bro cory

SPEAKER_00 36:59

cory cory same question for you um if you're the ndp is this is this fine is this fabulous what do you think is it fucked i

Corey 37:06

think it's fine because of the reason steven alluded to there there's um this is an issue that is benefiting the conservatives but it does not seem to be lifting all boats the the ndp have not been a benefactor in in the uh in the ongoing conversation here. And in fact, I suspect that they're not that keen to go to the polls if things become so dire, that you feel like you must pull the plug on this government at this particular moment. So strategically, it makes a ton of sense. Now, now morally and philosophically, is that the kind of move that I get excited about? Not really. It definitely does seem like it's helping the liberals hide the body, maybe in Wilkinson's platform, just to loop back to the previous segment but uh it's um it is what it is and strategically i i have

Corey 37:54

have to assume that that that there is some benefit to them if not directly from the liberals then they're just looking at their own situation and saying we don't want this right now well

SPEAKER_00 38:03

well cory let me stick with you on this as an as a brief extension because the federal conservatives now are proposing to create an anti-corruption committee slash task force uh stemming from the the we investigation investigation if you're the conservatives what do you make of that strategy is that fine is that fabulous is that fucked in your mind it's

Corey 38:23

fine and i could have answered any of these three depending on what i ate for dinner i think it's um it's it's a way that you can try to keep this issue in in the main but i don't know like anti-corruption task force just sounds a little

Corey 38:39

kind of political enemies ish i guess like i'm not wild about that uh in particular given the nature of the scandal and i and

Corey 38:46

and i really do think this is a scandal i don't think that the prime minister should have acted in the way that he did but uh this notion that you are going to to create this um you

Corey 38:55

you know this this gestapo to kind of root out corruption from the government is a bit much right this seems to be uh

Corey 39:02

uh you know that that would be something for like a systemic almost mafia style uh you know crime and and that that feels like that is uh that is not a charge that's going to stick, right? That's the kind of thing that really right when conservatives tell themselves that type that by, you know, billboards on the highway that say the Lebranos, right with, you know, the Sopranos logo, but it's not something that median

Corey 39:25

median Canadians, regular Canadians are going to look at and say, yeah, I can get behind that.

SPEAKER_00 39:29

Carter, same question to you, the conservatives trying to elongate the cycle on this story, starting their or proposing the anti-corruption Task Force. What do you think?

Carter 39:41

I think it's fabulous, and I'm going to tell you why.

Carter 39:43

I don't think it has anything to do with the policy. I don't think it has anything to do with the reaction of the media. I

Carter 39:49

I don't think it has anything to do with the reaction of the House of Commons. I think it raises them money.

Carter 39:54

I think that what they do with this is going to be put into a fundraising letter that goes out to their ardent supporters about how they have to fix this by the end of the fiscal year, and if they don't donate X number of dollars in the final quarter, And this is the right time for it, because you can do it now before they do the final desperation masks in December to prop up your quarter. So I think that this had nothing to do with the actual plan. It has everything to do with generating fundraising letters for the people who have the Lebranos stickers in the back of their trucks. trucks

SPEAKER_00 40:35

first time hearing of this we went federal let's go back to our home province here in alberta and steven i'll stick with you the alberta federation of labor started a campaign encouraging people to boycott ucp donors indirect and direct ucp donors creating a website of organizations that are donated to ucp uh friendly uh pack organizations uh and encouraging albertans to boycott. So if you're the AFL, right, let's make that the audience. And if you've got comments beyond the AFL about electoral success, et cetera, feel free to jump them in. But keeping in the spirit of the question, if you're the AFL, is this decision fine, fabulous, or fucked?

Carter 41:15

What are they expecting to get? Are they expecting that these businesses are actually going to get boycotted? First of all, when we try and boycott a single business, this like for example when jason kenney suggested uh that we boycott or rick mckiver suggested that we boycott earls didn't work uh when we suggested that we boycott tim hortons didn't work if you look at the science on on boycotts they don't work so you're not going to actually get any resonance the second problem with it is that it it names so many businesses like what are you trying to do where's your communication link through this like it it doesn't make any sense it could have been why do these businesses get to donate to their political causes but unions don't like there could have been some interesting conversations why do working men and women not get a voice in the political process but these UCP voters do I could almost wrap my head around it but this was just asinine

Carter 42:13

asinine the way it was implemented the way it was executed and here we are I think we're about 8 days later and no one

Carter 42:22

no one's business is hurting no one's calling up the media and saying this boycott's really hurting my business oh my god what am i going to do this is just it's

Carter 42:30

it's poor politics and uh it's not going to have a good outcome cory

SPEAKER_00 42:34

cory same question to you with the audience being the afl from their perspective you

SPEAKER_00 42:38

you know strategically fine fabulous or fucked i

Corey 42:43

think it's fucked um But there – you

Corey 42:46

you know, this is another one where I could make an argument for fine, but I think it would be pretty thin. Carter laid out all of the reasons why this is a bit absurd. You know, there are so many businesses, it is a bit like an enemy's list. It seems very derivative of the Sleeping Giants campaign, but not nearly as well done.

Corey 43:04

And I just think, if anything, it could backfire, right? You're going to you're going to have, you know, these true blue conservatives rallying to these businesses that they think are under threat from a union or not a union, but like AFL, like, you know, a labor group that that

Corey 43:21

that that probably isn't driving changes to their business downward, at least not in any kind of measurable sense. sense uh if you cared enough to look up that list you probably already cared enough to to know that you're not going to be donating to these people at least or not donating giving your business to these people so i just don't get it and i think it goes into a kind of a bundle of i just don't get it from the afl and we've talked to them or talked about them on this pod in the past we

SPEAKER_00 43:47

we analyzed one of their advocacy campaigns that's right yeah

Corey 43:50

and in that what i said was we don't really know who the audience is right if the audience is albertans i think it's a total If the audience is the, you know, the most ardent union supporters who are saying, Gil McGowan, do something, right? Get out there and fight for these things. Well, then maybe it's just a fine campaign. And I guess the same logic could apply to this list with one significant difference. This is likely to get a reaction from the conservative government that will just bring the hammer down even further and give them the excuse at a time when this legislation is kind of open to go deeper and harder. And I just think that this

Corey 44:27

this was pointless and ultimately self-defeating. Corey,

SPEAKER_00 44:31

Corey, let's stick with you and let's stick with Alberta. There's been Twitter chatter and media chatter online that Stephen Harper's son is getting paid by the UCP government to be a policy analyst. You know, the UCP defending it saying he's qualified. He's a young man who's given a policy job. From your perspective, if you're the UCP and you're the government, so from their perspective, is this fine? Is this fabulous or is this kind of fucked?

Corey 45:00

from their perspective is just fine it's just fine uh first thing i would say is how do you think listeners of the strategists people

Corey 45:09

people find political policy analyst jobs i mean it is not an area that is known for deep meritocracy it is deeply connection based it's

SPEAKER_00 45:18

it's not zip recruiter

SPEAKER_00 45:18

recruiter that's for sure they don't

Corey 45:20

don't use zip recruiter there's

Corey 45:21

zip recruiter for political policy analysts and

SPEAKER_00 45:24

and And we don't use them either.

SPEAKER_00 45:25

either. Fuck them. No,

Corey 45:25

No, because, yeah, where's the money? Pay up, Zip.

Corey 45:30

The reality is a lot of those jobs are about curating the next generation of political talent, and in this case, quite literally the next generation of political talent. You can hate the system, and I think that there's a lot to kind of feel gross about when you see the son of a prime minister being a presumably fairly well-paid policy analyst doing the job remotely from Columbia

Corey 45:53

Columbia University in New York City. I mean, it's just like, it doesn't, it feels gross, right? It feels like nepotism. It feels like it's not a job that he deserves.

Corey 46:03

they all have grander titles than their role, actually. Like, let's go through the chiefs of staff and the press secretaries. And this is no knock against the very talented people who are chiefs of staff and press secretaries. But these are aggrandized titles. They're chief of staff of an office of three people, right? Right. And and so

Corey 46:22

so when you hear somebody is a policy analyst in government, don't think that they're writing

Corey 46:27

writing the legislation. That's not what's happening here. So it's just fine. It's how the system works. Is it how the system should work? No, absolutely not. But it's it's not going to change anything. And it keeps the provincial government closer to a popular former prime minister. And Corey,

SPEAKER_00 46:46

just to dig in a little bit deeper, even from the perception

SPEAKER_00 46:49

perception risk, you think it's fine? You think there's not much hate to be made here, so to speak? Like

SPEAKER_00 46:57

Like what is this? What would

Corey 46:57

would the ad possibly be, right? Like a young adult was hired for a job by – like what's the ad? Like how is that going to get people's ire up? It's not nepotism in the sense that it's not Jason Kenney's son. It's cronyism arguably. arguably, but like, it's just, it doesn't write itself. And, and listen, no political party wants to start throwing those stones because you want to go through the staffs of any premier's office in this country. You're going to find a lot of people like that who are there because their mom was somebody or their dad was somebody or their neighbor who was their mentor was their connection in.

Corey 47:35

It's, it's not fruitful ground for opposition to attack from. So it's not going to occur. I mean, it's, it's going to get the chattering classes chattering. It's not going to change the course of the future.

SPEAKER_00 47:46

Carter, same question to you. If you're the UCP, does this hire? Is this fine? Is this fabulous? Is this is this fucked?

Carter 47:54

They have every right to hire who they want into a political position. Political jobs are political, which means that they're going to hire people that understand where they want to go politically. And that means they're going to hire insiders. There are no job postings for these, to Corey's point. So quit

Carter 48:11

quit complaining about it. The thing that pisses me off about it is everybody who's assuming that this young man is making $110,000 a year. It appears to be a part-time job. They're taking a look at the title and they're saying, well, this is how much money he gets paid.

Carter 48:27

Where is that coming from?

Carter 48:29

There's a sunshine list. There's a political staff and salaries list that lists everybody over $110,000 a year. He's not on it, people. You're taking this guy out to the cleaners because his last name is harper and his dad is was the former prime minister he is no more nor no less qualified to have any one of these political positions than any other political crony and by political crony i'm including every single political party no one is above this this is the way politics works if you don't like it get yourself elected but you'll never get elected because you don't understand how fucking politics works so

Carter 49:04

so shut the fuck up put away your twitter account and pull your head Get out of your ass.

Corey 49:09

So we, the strategists would like to apologize to the parents who have young children in their car during this particular Stephen Carter rant. Yo,

SPEAKER_00 49:18

Yo, Stephen, can you name the particular person that rant was directed at? Because that seems very personal. It seemed like it was one person. Let me stick to something a little bit more calming. I'm sticking with you. But I've learned my mistake from last time, which is I'm not going to give you another rant or a runway for a rant. At least I hope not. But let's go to something more calming and something more green. The Green Party. Let's talk about Annamie Paul. And there's two things I want to talk about. This is a double-barrel question, and I know you can handle it. Two things that she has done strategically. The first one is that she has asked the federal NDP to not run a candidate in the by-election she's now running in in Toronto Centre. That's been part one. And part two is that she's asked that because of the surging COVID rates, especially in Toronto Centre, that the by-election be delayed. So from her perspective, two answers, two questions, fine, fabulous or fuck. So from her perspective, the Green Party perspective, Carter, over to you on both of those questions. What do you think?

Carter 50:30

You can ask the NDP not to run against you, but there is absolutely no precedent for the leader. You know, like if this was a green seat, you could almost make the case that if Anna May Paul was stepping forward to win the seat of an MP who stepped down. But that precedent hasn't been recognized forever, and it certainly does not exist for the fifth place party in the House. So you can ask for it, but don't get all tied up in a knot when it isn't granted to you by the other parties. In terms of delaying the by-election, there is no delay of the by-election that's going to occur. I mean, yes, the pandemic is certainly ramping up in Toronto more so than it is in British Columbia. But B.C., Saskatchewan, New Brunswick have held elections. A by-election, it's

Carter 51:23

it's going to happen. So just

Carter 51:25

just calm down. You can ask for anything you want, but don't

Carter 51:29

don't pretend like this is the end of democracy if you don't get what you're asking for.

SPEAKER_00 51:34

Corey, same question to you, the double barrel question here. The first one around, you know, trying to get the NDP to not run a candidate in the Toronto Centre by-election and secondly, trying to delay it on both of those strategic items. If you're the Greens, find fabulous or fact.

Corey 51:51

So on the first, I'm going to say fabulous. I agree with everything Stephen said, everything. There is no reason why the NDP would not run a candidate here, but it makes it uncomfortable for them, right? When you talk about doing politics differently, when you talk about the

Corey 52:09

the need to take on environmental issues and to step out of this first-past-the-post box that we've put ourselves in, that's believed, I think, more strongly by New Democrat partisans than most. I think that's a pretty unobjectionable statement. And so it makes things awkward for them. And when you make things awkward for your political opponent, that's good. So I don't have a problem. And in fact, I think it's a really interesting way to kind of throw a wrench into the NDP campaign, because they're going to be dealing with

Corey 52:38

people throughout Toronto Centre saying, why are you even running?

Corey 52:41

Why are you even running? You were asked not to run. Wouldn't we benefit from having Annamie in the House of Commons? I mean, actually, if Toronto Centre thought that, they could have elected her when she ran in 2019 there, and they didn't. But, you know, it makes things uncomfortable for the NDP. On the second one about the delay of the election, I think that I'm a little more measured, and I go like a fine slash fine fucked. I just don't think, generally speaking, it's a good idea to cast dispersions on campaigns, especially at this moment we're in right now, right? right? It's got to be safe. There's no question about that. You know, health standards have to be adhered to. But the idea that you would do anything that would make an election seem less legitimate if it proceeded at this moment, does not sit well with me philosophically. Strategically, again, a lot of the same logic applies. But I just I that is not a bridge I would have crossed. That's for sure.

SPEAKER_00 53:35

We will leave that there. And we'll move it on to our final segment. Our final Our final segment are over, under, and our lightning round. Stephen Carter, I'm starting with you. You know, this is a topic that is close to your heart. I know you had an epic rant about it some time ago now, one of your famous rants. But we're bringing the man back to the conversation, Anthony Fauci. He has been featured in a Donald Trump Republican ad. He's come out, clarified that, listen, I was taken out of context. text. Right now, knowing the rigmarole, and by the way, the Republicans have come back being like, those are your words. You said it. We don't really give a fuck. That's pretty much their statement back at him. Stephen Carter, your one sentence strategy to Anthony Fauci right now, what would it be? Knowing the impending election, knowing the gap in the election, knowing where things stand, you've encouraged him to quit slash get out and do tell-alls before. This is why I wanted to go to you first. Knowing that he's back in the conversation what would your advice to him now be scorched

Carter 54:34

scorched earth policy they

Carter 54:37

they are fucking with you it is time to press back and he's starting you know and i think he's doing that i think he's pushing back as hard as he can uh i

Carter 54:47

i would push so hard they had no choice but to fire me i

Carter 54:50

i would just be so livid and i think he is i think he's livid i see that but he's just so damn measured measured um stop being so damn measured scorch the earth baby let's let's see some passion can

SPEAKER_00 55:02

can i push back for a second carter do you think he wants to get fired right now he might be less than he says

Carter 55:07

says he doesn't but i don't care if he stays where he is and he doesn't stand up for himself his words will be used against him for the rest of this election now it's only what 20 some odd days left um but if

Carter 55:20

you get fired by donald trump at this stage you'll get rehired by joe biden so

Carter 55:26

get the fuck out of there it's

Carter 55:27

it's a gong show cory

SPEAKER_00 55:29

cory same question to you though the one sentence give or take strategy for anthony fauci given the recent developments

Corey 55:36

i'll give you one sentence but let me preamble it as to why i think what steven's asking for just won't happen it's true he would probably be rehired by biden but that would politicize his job in a way that would make him deeply uncomfortable i mean it's it's clear he doesn't want to be seen as a as a political hatchet person one way or the other so he's never going to do that uh my one word strategy is continue keep doing what you're doing there it's um you have definitely found a

Corey 56:06

a way that it would be almost insane for them to fire you you know for saying hey listen i did not say those words in that context if you wanted to get cute and go a little bit further it's it's what i would you know maybe not actually what i would do it's what i would would want to do. I would make the exact same comments about the task force that Biden had around and allow them to be taken out of context in exactly the same way by somebody just to prove my point. This is not a road that the Republicans want to go down.

SPEAKER_00 56:32

Corey, I'm sticking with you on this one. Over under on seven, what do you make of the Dems so far in the Amy Coney Barrett hearings? Their strategy to try to tie her to Trump, bring back some of the old narratives that they use for Kavanaugh that she's not just a justice, don't believe what she says. She's going to be an activist in the court. You know, they don't have the votes. But what do you think thus far of their message track that they've been laying out?

Corey 57:00

Way under. For me, the only legitimate course of any conversation for the Democrats right now is to hammer on the lines that your candidate is driving on and just forget anything about Amy Coney Barrett's record. It's totally irrelevant. She should not be under consideration. consideration every comment should be about how she should not be under consideration if you want to make any noise on this that's what you do if the republicans say you're not taking this seriously you say no you're not taking it seriously you don't try to run through a supreme court justice in this amount of time i would delegitimize the entire process through which it was being determined not the candidate herself who who got very good marks from the aba who is well regarded in legal circles and if you're going to take a more conventional view of supreme court justices seems absolutely fine this

Corey 57:47

should be entirely about the fact that it is up to the american people to make a choice and then their new representatives to choose a justice it should you know and i and as i've said on this show and our other show i don't even necessarily agree with that but that's the line of attack you take if you're the dems garter

SPEAKER_00 58:03

garter same question to you over on round seven on the dem performance on the amy coney barrett hearings i

Carter 58:08

i think it's under i think I think they're not sticking. They're trying to fight back as though this is a regular appointment. I think that Corey's points are bang on. This isn't a regular appointment. This is a bullshit process. And if you could question her on the process and then also question her on Democratic responsibilities, like right now, you're trying to tie her to her well-known positions isn't working. You know, does she have respect for the voters? Does she have respect for elected pieces of legislation? legislation? These are the questions that you could maybe get something out of, but you're not going to get anything out of her on abortion. She's wrapped

Carter 58:54

wrapped up tight. She's not going to say a damn word.

SPEAKER_00 58:57

Carter, sticking with you, a cousin of this question, scale of one to 10, how is Joe Biden's performance? Joe Biden, and let's add Kamala Harris to it too, how were both of their performances on their answers, their strategic non-answers of packing the court? They've been been asked about this multiple times the campaign's been asked about this multiple times what do you kind of make of their uh their strategic choice to to sidestep it uh on a scale of one to ten i

Carter 59:23

just don't understand why it took them three days to come up with the answer you

Carter 59:27

you know it was we were asking the question i think in the strategy in the strategist podcast for a new the people where we were asking you know how do you deal with the pack the court questions and you

Carter 59:39

know i said don't change the rules in the middle of the game, right? So don't start talking about how you're going to pack the court. That implied you needed to have an answer to that question. They finally have seemed to land on it, which is we're not the ones packing the court. We're watching the Republicans do it in real time. Ask them why they're doing it.

Carter 59:57

And that took literally three or four days for the Democrats to get there. I don't understand that. If we can see it in

Carter 1:00:07

in advance, surely the the pointy heads of the democratic campaigns uh can see it coming did joe just take that long to internalize the answer it just it just is confusing as hell to me cory

SPEAKER_00 1:00:19

cory same question to you uh the biden harris campaign specifically biden harris um what do you make of their their response strategy on the packing the court's question on a scale of one to 10.

Corey 1:00:31

It's a D minus. The court packing question

Corey 1:00:35

question has been the most awkward question in both a presidential and vice presidential debate. He's being hounded by this. And I mean, here's the thing. The last stats I saw on this were 538 episodes poll, which showed that this issue was the top issue for 4.5% of Americans. Don't

Corey 1:00:54

Don't make it a bigger issue for more Americans, but just Just find an answer that sticks, for Christ's sake. Like this bleeding over a week has just been absolutely absurd. You know, I think Joe Biden in many ways was, I don't like the answer of they're the ones packing the court. You know, takes one to know one, two wrongs make a right. I don't think it's particularly compelling. I would have stuck more closely to what Biden's original answer was and expanded on it. It's like, are you going to pack the court? Sure. I mean, that's a hypothetical in a scenario where the Republicans do something deeply corrupt, which is filling this seat before the Americans have had the chance to do it. So I am going to give them the opportunity to step back from the brink. I am not going to deal with that particular hypothetical. You know, ask me if they get so crazy with it. Now, the problem is, you're gonna have to deal with it right before the election then. But I just I don't like what the Democrats have done on this and how they're twisting on this particular issue. It was Pence's strongest part of the vice presidential debate because he was right. Harris wasn't answering and she was clearly being evasive on the topic, which actually makes it look shadier than if they just came out and said, yeah, yeah, they do this. We're just going to neutralize that choice by putting in a choice of our own and increasing the size of the court. The

Corey 1:02:07

The word neutralize, I think, actually, I would consider as well. if i were them cory

SPEAKER_00 1:02:11

cory sticking with you for our final question plus or minus 18 percentage points john horgan's margin of victory on election night i

Corey 1:02:21

would like to go second and predict the opposite of what stephen carter of

SPEAKER_00 1:02:25

of course i'm sorry that was a strategic error on my part yeah it was it was what you'd call a fucked on my part stephen carter uh plus or minus on the 18 point margin Margin of victory for John Horgan.

Carter 1:02:39

Horgan's not going to win by 18 points. He's going to win, but it's not going to be by 18 points. It's going to be a margin smaller.

SPEAKER_00 1:02:48

Oh, see, usually what you would do is give us an exact number just so you could be wrong. He's

Carter 1:02:53

He's going to win by 7%.

SPEAKER_00 1:02:58

Corey, I'm sticking to the original question for you. Feel free to be more specific if you want, but whatever. whatever.

SPEAKER_00 1:03:03

By more than 7%. How about that?

SPEAKER_00 1:03:07

That's great. We'll leave it there. That's a wrap on episode 825 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Belger. With me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter, and we'll see you next time.

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