Transcript
Zain
0:03
This is a Strategist episode 561. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Guys, how are you? Good, Zain.
Carter
0:10
Really good. It's almost Christmas.
Carter
0:13
It's almost Christmas. I'm very
Corey
0:15
very excited. Last time we did this, I noted in the episode, we didn't say anything. You asked how we were doing, we said nothing, and then you jumped into it. Yeah. I wanted to preempt that this time. You wanted
Corey
0:24
formally how you're doing? That's right. Yeah.
Corey
0:27
I like your tree that you have, Carter.
Carter
0:28
Thank you. If I plug it in, the light's gone.
Corey
0:33
newfangled thing. You're using the word tree loosely, I think.
Zain
0:36
560, we did, I don't know, however long ago, but the real difference between then and now is that in
Zain
0:43
in that episode, I was talking about us competing with Serial. Between now and then, Corey, you have come out publicly supporting the second season of Serial. We're
Zain
0:50
We're not doing any favors
Corey
0:51
favors to ourselves. It's so good. It's a great, great podcast. You know what? But it really shows me what this podcast could be if talented people were behind it.
Corey
1:01
Yeah, it's fantastic. How do we get rid of Stephen?
Carter
1:05
It's my house. Get rid of me. Yeah.
Zain
1:07
Yeah. I don't know why we got the engineer to be behind the mic. I don't know. This is what happened when we got Stephen to finally fill in.
Corey
1:15
Mistakes were made. But you know what? That's why pencils have erasers. 2016, you can expect something better from the strategists. Can they really, though? No,
Zain
1:23
Let's go. Let's end 2015. first
Zain
1:25
first segment trumpeting your own horn i want to talk about donald trump certainly but let's talk about in the context largely of politicians
Zain
1:33
politicians political parties shooting themselves in the foot putting something into place that they thought would benefit themselves only to screw them future selves cory do you want to lead it off and give us an idea what the republicans are doing right now to their own party or did do i should say in 2012 and how those ramifications are playing out today oh my
Corey
1:51
my god it's just insane and and actually this is a great example of of
Corey
1:57
of short-sighted decision making but you know it goes back further than 2012 zane way back the republicans have been digging their own grave for so long now that
Corey
2:07
that i'm sure their arms are giving out i they've got to be tired uh but yeah let's talk about specifically what everybody is is freaking out about in the rnc these days the republican national committee and that's all of these rules they put in place in 2012 when it looked like mitt romney was going to be the presumptive nominee and some of these have been talked about a bit in the news but they're probably worth going over sure the one everybody talks about right now is rule 40 so in the republican rules rule 40 essentially sets a threshold for how many delegates from how many states you need before you can be considered as a presidential nominee at the convention so back in 2012 they really didn't want to embarrass Romney by having Rand Paul show
Corey
2:51
show up on uh you know on the ballot and getting a few votes and taking them off message because you know as much as the conventions are about nominating a president they're not uh they're now just theater they're they're a great excuse to get Clint Eastwood to go up and show how senile he's become um but they created this modification of this rule so it was it raised the threshold that was required in order for you to be considered as a nominee so that not just in 2012 but ideally in 2016 uh president romney on his re-election bid wouldn't have to deal with anybody who gets a couple of seats bottom line to be considered a nominee for the president of the united states and the republican party under current rules and they can change and we get that in a second but you are required to get a majority majority of delegates from eight states. Now, it used to be you needed to get the most delegates from like three or five states. So they significantly raised the ceiling. But the problem is everybody
Corey
3:46
everybody and their dog is running right now. There are some real questions as to if anybody is going to win the majority of delegates in eight states. Keep in mind, not every state's winner takes all. In fact, fewer
Corey
3:57
fewer than in years past are. So you might be splitting that pie 12 different ways and
Corey
4:04
and there is a number of scenarios out there where one person who's not as popular as the other people wins eight states with a majority and
Corey
4:14
and the person with more delegates actually can't even go on to the ballot like the number of scenarios are insane that's nuts well and the problem is not that these scenarios exist because in a in theory they can just change the rules
Carter
4:25
to change the rules it's
Carter
4:26
it's what it's what political parties do let's
Corey
4:28
let's talk about a scenario though that is not as far-fetched as people would like to believe
Corey
4:34
donald trump wins the majority of delegates in eight states he takes a bunch of winner takes all states because with his 20 it's enough to be more than anybody else right so he wins all the winner takes all states or enough
Corey
4:44
enough of them because he's not going anywhere nobody
Corey
4:46
nobody else gets enough delegates combined they have more than enough to stop donald trump now you're the republican party you have to change the rules specifically from rules that were agreed upon on before everybody entered this race to allow everybody else into the race that would have otherwise been excluded from at the convention if you're donald trump doesn't that give you every excuse in the world you need to take your ball and go home oh
Carter
5:08
oh absolutely you they will change the rules let's be clear no these rules are not standing the way that cory is describing it is 100 accurate the problem is or the opportunity is they can change the rules yeah
Carter
5:20
the outcome of that change is also predictable right so they will change the rules that is predictable the outcome of that change is that donald trump will get screwed and he will go away and he will pout he's already talking about an independent candidacy in 2016 he sort
Zain
5:34
sort of ruled it out but not
Zain
5:37
yeah i mean so so hold on carter
Zain
5:39
carter used a word here that i that i want to talk about a little bit more predictable right yeah the rule change is going to be predictable it was when they made it last time the amendment to that rule could be predictable but let's take it back a little bit because i think there's a lot more to discuss why
Zain
5:53
why do people do this why do and this is not just you know within the american context corey wanted to jump in before no
Corey
5:58
i want to jump in on this point why
Corey
6:01
why they do this is because they saw a situation that they assumed was i think chronic and they decided to fix it so rule 40 was only one of the things the republicans did yeah
Corey
6:10
they also had to deal with the whole like everybody and their dog was front runner in the republican party for a week right yeah
Zain
6:17
yeah the chap in last time so
Corey
6:18
so they they did a couple of other things they tried to reduce the number of winner takes all states because they didn't want anybody to get or sorry they tried to um they
Corey
6:28
they tried to look at the winner takes all in the context of when are people voting and all that and they decided if there's going to be winner
Corey
6:35
winner takes all they want them on the back end to clean up so when somebody gets out of the mess they get to go forward but
Corey
6:40
they would also just front load a lot more so all of these contests or the majority of delegates to the republican convention are being elected in like one month it's crazy it's like boom and the problem with that is that doesn't really give a lot of time for a field that is so deep to clear right like within why why drop out when next week there's another you know third of the delegates coming out right so that's a problem uh the fact that after that it's winner takes all that's a problem because all of a sudden maybe just donald trump decides he's going to stick it out and then it's the minimum thresholds which aren't necessarily new but it's certain percents that certain states have said you need to get to win all of the the delegates and some of those percents are like 20
Corey
7:23
of them are 15 some of them are 10 but the point is if you've got a crowded field and only donald trump gets more than 20 yeah
Corey
7:31
even on these non-winner takes all states he could win all the delegates so
Zain
7:34
so the threat is kind of real is that fair to say right now the threat when i say the donald trump republican
Zain
7:40
republican candidacy is very very real is it not yeah
Corey
7:43
yeah okay final thing i'll say on this it's donald
Corey
7:46
donald trump is the front runner in the the republican contest the rules
Corey
7:49
rules were designed to
Corey
7:51
to make it so the front runner would have an easier way to win and it was done in response to the fact that the front runner mitt romney had to deal with these like whack-a-mole candidates from the republic and
Zain
8:00
and the front runner was usually an institutional candidate were
Corey
8:02
were they not and for some reason they assumed they always would be well
Carter
8:06
well and this is this is the uh the challenge that haunts political parties to this day i mean Right. So one member, one vote.
Carter
8:15
Good or bad for democracy? Let's discuss. I think it's terrible for democracy and people don't understand it. So in Canada, most of the leaderships that we're looking at now are one member, one vote. Some are doing kind of a little perversion of it where they wait based on riding. So you get 100 points for riding. That's the liberals and the conservatives. Yeah.
Carter
8:34
But one member one vote is is the classic way of electing a leader in most of the provinces now. And it seems on its face to be really democratic. I mean, if you're a member and you get to vote, that's it. But how do you get to access the memberships? Right. How do you get to sell the memberships becomes a fact, a major factor. The Progressive Conservative Party in 2011 in Alberta. you could
Carter
8:56
could buy a membership the day you voted so
Carter
9:00
effectively walk into the polling station and buy a membership the reason i know this is allison redford i may have had a little role on that one because of that okay
Zain
9:08
okay let's let's let's zoom it out just so people can understand what we're talking about yeah the whole notion here is political parties implementing rules promise and we'll get into promises in a second campaign wise but implementing infrastructure rules policies policies that shoot themselves in the future down the road they screwed
Zain
9:26
their future selves yeah
Zain
9:27
the pc party classically here in alberta last not just 2011 but even before that the front runner was not the winner explain to me in 2011 what happened and was this the similar moment where they wanted to protect something and instead they got the the the unintended results well
Carter
9:43
well i Well, I mean, when Ed Stalmack won, it was 2006,
Carter
9:47
2006, Ed Stalmack wins the leadership for the Progressive Conservative Party. He came from third place. So the thinking was, well, our big problem here is we only have one week gap between the first vote and the second vote. What
Carter
10:02
What we need to do is we need to make that two weeks. We need to give our frontrunners more time to
Carter
10:07
to solidify their vote and get out and win. Right. So they moved it from one week to two weeks. which what happens in 2012 or 2011? Alison Redford coming from second place, not third, but she's coming from second place. She needs a ton of support.
Carter
10:23
Every leadership candidate that dropped out of the race or was eliminated in the race endorsed Gary Maher, the front runner, the guy who was going to win. This thing was locked in the first week. If it had been held on the first week. It
Carter
10:36
It would have been over.
Carter
10:37
It would have been Gary Maher's no problem. But because they went one week longer, stronger
Carter
10:42
alice in redford won it was designed to protect the front runner but the implication or the what what what the change did is it had unforeseeable results
Carter
10:54
but at the same time somewhat predictable cory
Zain
10:56
cory do we see other analogous comparisons whether they be other provincial ones or even federally do we see comparisons that that you find to be quite fascinating yourself well
Corey
11:06
well i mean broadly all politics is whack-a-mole we're always trying the solutions that didn't work before because we see problems with the ones we get it's cyclical we just go back through it yeah i i mean i i think that the uh the fascinating thing is you're now starting to see grumblings of people saying this whole one member one vote or members voting
Corey
11:25
has had had consequences we had not foreseen and maybe we need to go back to delegated conventions and you start to see people like andrew coin talk about that and
Corey
11:34
and maybe they've got a point um they
Carter
11:35
they do i mean well i don't want to go down too far yeah but the delegated conventions used to bring together the key people of a party the organizer levels and when taking away the key people of the party what happens is you start to you you no longer have to work together so
Carter
11:49
so you actually wind up driving the core elements further apart sometimes and you start to see splintering off where people will leave because they're dissatisfied with the party well
Corey
11:57
well i don't want to go too further afield either but it
Corey
11:59
it is definitely true that political parties have have have really embraced this millennial culture of me and I'm important and I'm the most important component. And when you tell people they're the most important component and you give them all of the authority and they don't have to work their way into it or prove that they deserve it, they don't need to do anything more than spend $5 on a membership or $10 or $20, whatever your party is. And then they instantly believe they should have a veto over policies in your party. They believe they're required to be taken seriously on all campaigns. There is absolutely no structure to funnel people up and separate the cream from the rest. yeah you reap what you sow and and so i think there's some truth
Corey
12:34
to that the the traditional model of political power broking was uh
Corey
12:39
uh a bit unseemly i think we can agree but the fact is that that system came out of a need and we've just totally blown up the need and now we have this mad mob rule of political parties that i think a lot of parties are regretting the
Carter
12:52
the mob that they cultivate is a very uh hyper engaged mob that thinks that they represent the status quo there or thinks they represent the overall population. Corey wrote an article about that on CBC. You should go and read that article. Thanks
Carter
13:08
plug. You're welcome. Thanks for, you know, plugging this thread.
Carter
13:11
No, you never did. Okay. But the objective, or like what the reason was to bring that in was to kind of give a grassroots feel to politics. To politics. We will more represent the everyman if we allow the everyman to participate. Eliminating the barriers
Zain
13:26
barriers to entry, effectively. What
Carter
13:27
What happened was those people didn't participate. only the crazy people participated i say crazy with all the love in the world people who are listening who participate in these races yeah they
Carter
13:36
they are different than everybody else they go to political rallies on saturday mornings and listen to speeches and say oh it's really entertaining no one else thinks that's entertaining everybody else thinks that that's prison yeah
Carter
13:49
right so these are not the average person they don't represent the average person's way of thinking and it actually moves political parties away from the center away from where everybody else is going
Carter
13:59
going back to the beginning right
Carter
14:02
where are the republicans today are they more reflective of the american population or less reflective of the american population it's
Zain
14:10
yes right it's less but the engagement is with people looks
Zain
14:14
looks like it's more engaging well
Carter
14:16
and it starts with ronald reagan it starts with ronald reagan and and his fascination with the christian right i
Zain
14:22
i i don't i don't want us to lose the plot here right the whole concept of putting something into place right that you can that you can that can affect you down the road cory
Zain
14:30
cory there is a trickle down to this in a sense right it doesn't just it's
Zain
14:34
it's not just the party rules around how you elect a leader or put someone in place it this can also be uh this this practice that seems to be happening constantly can also affect the campaign trail right promises that you put on one day that you're like oh fuck i wish i didn't do that you know in day two of the campaign yeah
Corey
14:52
yeah right yeah i mean political parties that were in third that get their way into government provincially or now federally we have an example with the liberals yeah
Corey
14:59
are great at this because you make these promises thinking there's absolutely no way you need to implement them they are thought through by five people in a room they are not costed they are not gone through in great detail and
Corey
15:10
and then all of a sudden you're sitting there in government and you're going shit oh yeah fuck
Corey
15:14
we said we'd get rid of our cf18s in that fight that we can't do that oh shit we said a 10 billion dollar deficit that's going to be pretty tough we said how many syrian refugees are we're being told we can't possibly do that and and i you know what i still believe they could have done that but i'll tell you something you
Corey
15:31
the caveat of that one i'll tell you something the new democrats came to their 10 000 number because they talked to experts in the field who said that's as much as you're going to be able to get done by christmas the
Corey
15:41
the liberals said fuck it 10 000 we can double that we've used the term arms race before it
Zain
15:47
it became one right
Corey
15:48
right during the election
Zain
15:49
election but and so now here they are do you so you that you're that's just not a hypothetical you actually paint their reality as being that today do you know oh yeah and
Corey
15:56
and i think that there's more to come i think they they had a very ambitious platform but it read like a third party platform because it was it was almost some of it was almost like poli-sci student wet dream stuff around
Corey
16:09
government change and whatnot that's going to be very difficult car talk
Corey
16:12
to me about that talk to
Zain
16:13
to me about political parties um shooting themselves in the foot by by trying to swing for the fences on their platforms or their day-to-day policy asks on
Zain
16:21
the campaign trail well
Carter
16:23
because Because you've been on the campaign and you've had to make – Yeah, I mean we promised in 2012. You've been that guy. Let me just relay
Carter
16:29
relay one of our key promises, right? We're not going to increase taxes. That was really important. Nobody wanted to see us increase taxes. We are going to balance the budget, right?
Carter
16:38
right? We are going to balance the budget. Right. And we are not going to cut spending.
Corey
16:44
That still blows my mind. I
Carter
16:45
I need people at home to figure out how you're going to do that. Let that marinate for a second. It's literally impossible to do.
Carter
16:52
But in the course of the campaign, in order to win, I mean, ultimately, we didn't win because of those promises.
Carter
16:59
we should have lost because of those promises. We didn't because people wanted that to actually work. Like it's magic accounting and it's often used by political parties. The wild rose in the midst of it right now where
Carter
17:10
where they, you know, they can magically balance the budget just by showing up.
Carter
17:14
The conservative party always believed that as well. Oh, look, we're in a deficit because the liberals are in power. No, we had a deficit before. You guys just covered it up.
Carter
17:23
That's okay. That's politics. This idea,
Carter
17:27
though, that the promises are the problem is only one of the things. It's this kind of ideological piece that starts to drag you down, too. Explain that to me. What does that mean?
Carter
17:36
Well, I think I'm going to use the province of Alberta again. But it also followed to
Carter
17:43
to Ontario and this 1993 revolution where we were all going to balance budgets. Preston Manning starts in 1987 screaming that the balanced budget was a bad thing. The conservatives who were in power at the time picked that up. And then when they were no longer in power, everybody is in this place where deficits were bad.
Carter
18:06
We have to eliminate deficits. Ralph Klein eliminates the deficit in Alberta. He starts off by cutting spending. 5
Carter
18:13
5% cut across the board, cut spending.
Carter
18:17
Looks like that cut of spending is actually what is going to deliver the
Carter
18:22
the holy grail of a balanced budget, but it doesn't. Well,
Corey
18:27
Ralph Klein was the last Alberta premier who took in more money in revenue than we spent. So
Corey
18:34
So we just couldn't balance the budget because we had debt and debt servicing costs and whatnot.
Carter
18:38
Yeah, but then a little magical thing came along and it was called natural gas prices. And in Alberta, we balanced the budget on the back of natural gas. And the natural gas price got so high that all of us in Alberta who were over 18, so Zane, you may not have gotten this, got a check. Yeah.
Carter
18:56
Bucks. We got checks because we had so much money in the treasury coming in from natural gas that we all had money in our pockets. That money didn't flow to Ottawa in the form of the
Carter
19:06
the royalties, but it did flow to Ottawa in the form of revenues. All the budgets start getting balanced. Everything starts to look all right. And then we start buying into this idea that we've cut spending, ergo we've balanced the budgets. Now we just can balance the budgets, and we increase spending, and we increase spending, and we increase spending. And Ralph Klein increased spending in Alberta more than any other premier.
Carter
19:29
He takes it all the way back up, way past what he had actually cut, but
Carter
19:33
but he's balancing the budget on
Carter
19:36
on the back of natural gas. He implements a flat tax regime, all
Carter
19:40
all of which leads us to Jim Prentice in 2015. 2015.
Carter
19:45
He now has to put together a new budget. And the new budget recognizes that there is no natural gas revenue. There is no oil and gas revenue. That is not there. It can't balance the budget. So you can't actually balance your spending to your revenue because
Carter
20:00
because you've actually now eliminated your
Carter
20:03
your revenue levers, which was income tax. Corey,
Zain
20:06
Corey, help me define the problem. For people listening at home, I know these are some good good anecdotes and good stories from the inside help me but i want to be clear on this help me to find what the problem is here for political parties is it that they don't have the foresight is it that they don't have the line of sight or is it just that they're trying to solve the problem that's just immediately in front of or a combination i mean what do you think it is well it's
Corey
20:26
it's a combination but when i was when i was the campaign chair for the liberals uh here in alberta i had a saying uh
Corey
20:33
uh i would say let's not borrow problems from the future right you are just trying to get through today when you're on a political campaign you were just trying to make sure like we would be in conversations uh where people would say well hold on but that policy would have these ramifications if implemented so those conversations
Zain
20:48
conversations do they happen
Corey
20:49
happen well and look i'm the third party at that point yeah i'm like i don't i fuck
Corey
20:54
fuck if i could be so lucky as to have to deal with that tomorrow right
Zain
20:57
right so that is a conversation you had and effectively said i
Zain
21:00
i don't give a shit this sounds i'm not i don't want to simplify what
Corey
21:03
what you're saying we're
Zain
21:04
we're not going in
Corey
21:06
totally outrageous things but it's like oh yeah but this could happen and that could happen it's like you know what none of this will happen because we will not be government and uh and so yeah and sometimes those third parties do shoot in the first and then you're like oh okay oops and then you've got to deal with the ramifications of that similarly though you
Corey
21:25
know you you can very easily get yourself into a situation where Where you're
Corey
21:30
you're just – it's today. You're trying to get through today.
Corey
21:33
today. And you're not necessarily saying that policy is no good but it will never be implemented. You're saying like this policy is the right time for the moment. It will get me through this election. Right.
Corey
21:42
No new taxes, no spending cuts, no debt. Way to go, Stephen. Yeah, but we won.
Corey
21:47
But you may have killed the party in the process. Now,
Carter
21:49
Now, I'm not saying
Corey
21:50
saying you. I'm saying that mantra of the PC party that we could do this, that it could all
Carter
21:54
all just happen. We made a fairy land, the never-never land, where
Carter
21:59
where anything was possible. We could balance the budget by a sheer force of will, right? And the
Carter
22:07
problem was it had happened at least twice before, right? We've balanced the budget on natural gas revenues before. We've balanced the budget on oil revenues before. It's happened, yeah. Yeah. Why
Carter
22:18
Why wouldn't it happen again this time? And the problem is you
Carter
22:21
you don't control that, right?
Carter
22:23
right? And you've created yourself a position where everything fails because you haven't thought it through enough. Now, you win. And so I have this argument all the time with political operatives, people who want to – the
Carter
22:36
the policy wonks mostly. They want to devise the world's best policy. I
Carter
22:41
I want to devise the policy that gets me elected.
Carter
22:44
And those are two very, very different things. And the
Carter
22:49
the Republicans are also playing this game of I want the policy that gets me elected. We talked last week or last episode about this kind of would you would you back down if you found it?
Carter
23:02
You know, yeah, we ultimately this is a game of elections and the people are
Carter
23:06
are the ones who do the voting and
Carter
23:08
the people don't know or won't learn how to vote for
Carter
23:12
for the for the best policies.
Corey
23:16
That's a darker place
Corey
23:17
than I go. It's very cynical,
Carter
23:18
but it's interesting. Okay, hold on, hold on. Direct democracy, good or bad, Corey?
Corey
23:23
Because, ooh, okay, I like what you're doing here. Are you just trumping me on this? This is great. Because ultimately, decisions have to have time to roll out. You have to understand the ramifications in the context of government as a whole, not based on one decision. Are
Carter
23:35
Are you implying, fine sir, that the people can't understand that?
Corey
23:38
I'm implying the people are way too busy, and that's why they elect people.
Carter
23:41
And that's what they do. Representative democracy enables other people to figure things out. Direct democracy is worse than representative
Carter
23:50
Representative democracy then breeds this problem. This problem is, I will tell the people what they want to hear so I can remain your representative. This is not new. This existed when the founding fathers in the United States built their democracy. I'm sure it existed back in the ancient Greece. Let me split hairs
Zain
24:10
hairs for a second. I'm hearing a few reasons as to why this happens. Number one, you are effectively just trying to get through today. You're on a political campaign like Corey was, and you're saying, that'd
Zain
24:22
that'd be a problem I'd love to have. We'll figure it out then. Number two, though, and this is where I want to focus on a little bit more as it pertains to what we talked off the top, which was Donald Trump, which is it worked before, so why wouldn't it work in the future, specifically to this rule change? yeah we did it so we finally mustered the courage to do it so we could protect our own and now we got fucked the next round like immediately the next round we get totally screwed well what does that say about court you're gonna add in but
Corey
24:48
but like is that a line of sight problem i mean what's the lesson here well it remains to be seen i think whether or not they get fucked i mean but like the i
Corey
24:57
i think i think this them being dragged through yeah they're already in a horrible situation but
Corey
25:02
but this is this is as i was saying off the top this is the republicans have been been digging their grave for a while and this is the law of unintended consequences you you you get too narrow of a vision and you're just thinking
Corey
25:13
about one thing and you can't see the battleship that's out in the corner of your eye that's about to blow the shit out of you and so for example when they create this fundraising regime right where all of a sudden um unlimited
Corey
25:25
unlimited money is allowed to go to pax and they fought for it yes
Corey
25:27
it was the supreme court but you bet your ass that was a a republican tenant well guess what now you've got a field that will never clear because as long as there's one billionaire patron who's behind a candidate they have the money to continue and
Zain
25:40
and and and like you said off the top for them to actually continue and have an institutional air quotes candidate
Corey
25:45
candidate they need people to drop out exactly right and so here we are where you have essentially candidates owned and yes owned i'm sorry by one person who effectively will bankroll their campaign paint through a super pack they're going to continue forever field doesn't clear fields
Corey
26:02
fields that large nobody gets over 20 percent nobody gets over 20 percent candidate donald trump becomes nominee donald trump and and like just there's just so many things that cascade in and with the benefit of hindsight you can look in and be like you made a lot of very bad decisions that were very short-sighted yeah
Corey
26:19
but they wanted the money to beat obama right because obama was raising all this money through
Corey
26:22
through that was the problem of
Zain
26:23
of that day they
Corey
26:24
they needed to find another avenue of money Now, there was an easy way and a hard way to do it. The hard way was to actually build a new grassroots movement that matched the enthusiasm of Obama's. The easy way was to change the rules so that billionaires could give them hundreds of millions of dollars.
Corey
26:38
They reap what they sow now. But unfortunately, so does America as a whole. But ultimately,
Corey
26:42
nice little jab at the end.
Carter
26:44
But this is the overall problem, right? Yeah. Easy solutions versus hard solutions. So what's the
Carter
26:50
I would say if
Corey
26:51
if you're like – Let me put an addendum on that. It's not hard solutions, although it is. it's well thought out decisions no
Corey
26:56
you you can either solve the problems that are in front of you or you can say it's like chess are you going to be one move ahead or 10 moves ahead so
Carter
27:03
so delegated conventions start getting a bad rap because because because right so the easiest thing to do is not explain to people why delegated conventions are important but
Carter
27:12
but instead just to buy into uh preston manning's direct democracy every member has a vote that's not the best solution the best solution is to come up with something that is uh that makes sense for a political party to grow and to have people who are the most engaged creating relationships to build a party, to feel like they're together on the same team.
Zain
27:33
Okay, so put on the strategy hat for me. You've shot yourself in the foot in the past. We've got two live wires we're talking about here. Number one, we just discussed the RNC and the GOP and what they're doing.
Zain
27:42
Carter, talk to me about the liberals. We talked about them earlier as well.
Zain
27:46
Justin Trudeau's made, of course,
Zain
27:47
course, some interesting campaign promises i know you and i were talking about this off air what
Zain
27:52
what is the the lesson here and how do you overcome this do you admit it at some point what do you do to overcome the fact that you may have had some bloated promises that you're now trying to enact like in
Carter
28:05
in real life what do you actually do tell
Zain
28:07
tell me today what what do they do i
Carter
28:09
i mean you do is you spend you take your first 120 days you
Corey
28:13
you break them as fast as
Carter
28:13
as possible and you well or Or so. So what I would actually do is a little different. The first hundred and twenty days you would give them as much as possible. Right. You would do as much as possible. And I would argue that the Trudeau liberals have done much of that. And then the next two hundred days you dig a grave and you put all the shit into it and then you blame as much as humanly possible to remind people of Corey's Khrushchev story and you blame the other guys and then you bury that up and then you start moving forward with reasonable promises that people will remember year over year. And
Carter
28:44
And that's called your budget and your actual year-to-year activities. Corey,
Zain
28:48
Corey, I'm going to let you get into that in one second. But can this short-sighted or law of unintended consequences, can that be avoided?
Zain
28:55
avoided? Is there a pathway to better avoiding it? I
Zain
28:59
I know you talked about making well-thought-out decisions. Is there anything you want to add to that so we can close that loop?
Corey
29:04
Well, I mean, I think you're asking everybody to be a little more reasonable than is realistic, you know, that whole don't borrow problems from the future. Do
Corey
29:12
you think if anybody was in the liberal strategy room, war room, and was sitting there and saying, like, whoa, guys, if we promise this and we become government, this could mildly affect Canada for the negative, do you think they'd be laughed out of the room? They'd be like, are you fucking kidding me? We've got an election going on right now. But we as voters need to be better at punishing people for that kind of behavior. I don't know if that's realistic, if that's going to happen. But, yeah, I mean, ultimately, we
Corey
29:39
we reward that behavior. And so it's going to continue to
Zain
29:41
to happen. And give me your solution right now. Carter talked about the first 120 followed by the 200 days after that. What do you think?
Corey
29:48
Yeah, I think you've just got to fail fast. You've got to break these promises quickly. You've got to find a way to blame the other guy. And Carter's right. And then you've got to do as much as you can that's realistic. But
Corey
29:59
But you've seen it. Even the CPP stuff, the expansion of CPP, got the premiers to break that promise for them effectively, right? Like, we don't need this right now.
Corey
30:09
Expect to see a bit more of that. if there can be a way
Corey
30:12
they can get people almost to be asking them not to do it and they did that a little bit with the syrian thing too then
Corey
30:17
then they get a little bit more slack but
Corey
30:20
talk about the future again are we going to be it's
Corey
30:23
it's interesting because i've always heard no so many articles wrote and whatnot that the the
Corey
30:27
the liberals believe strongly they will be judged on whether or not they kept their promises not whether or not people agreed with the promises kept right the
Corey
30:35
inner circle to justin trudeau believe that if
Corey
30:38
if that's true they're off to a pretty poor start i
Corey
30:41
do kind of wonder if they're not setting themselves up for that failure in 2019 now because they they to solve this problem will need to now create a situation that will you know mean many broken promises pointed to in 2019 and nobody forgot when
Corey
30:59
when jean cretien didn't eliminate the gst no
Carter
31:02
no but they forgave but
Corey
31:04
but they forgave because
Carter
31:05
because of other Other goals achieved and other things that were done. Now, this is a different world, though.
Carter
31:12
You know, Kretchen was not dealing with hyper-partisan social media, the decline of the traditional media, all kinds of different things that are impacting us in the overall.
Carter
31:25
there are things happening to politicians that they did not create themselves. Trump isn't just a creation of
Carter
31:32
of a bad primary process. Trump is also a creation of a bad education system and a social media structure.
Carter
31:41
know, I mean, seriously, and a hyper religious. I'm with you on
Carter
31:45
this one. I've always
Carter
31:46
been with you on this one. There are many, many reasons why Trump exists. Some of them were created by the Republicans themselves.
Carter
31:53
Others were just, were victims of.
Zain
31:55
External factors, you can put in quotes. We
Carter
31:57
We don't vote the right way. Right.
Carter
31:59
Right. So when we come right back down to it, I mean, Corey kind of wussed out on my direct democracy stuff, but he was close. He was close. We aren't ever going to learn enough to vote properly because we don't want to learn how to vote properly. We aren't the type of people, we aren't creatures of rational decisions. I'm sorry if that offended anybody, but that's not who we are. We
Carter
32:21
We are creatures of emotional decisions, and those emotional decisions are extremely volatile at this particular moment in time.
Zain
32:29
We'll leave it there. Shooting yourself in the foot. I think, Carter, your last point opens us up to talking about other ways of voting, frankly, considering that we are going to be having that conversation, one would expect in this country, very
Zain
32:41
very shortly here. And we can chat about that in the new year. I
Carter
32:44
I think with the new year, we have to, or I'm going to kick your ass.
Carter
32:49
want to talk about the first past the post versus preferential ballot versus single transferable vote. We will never beat
Carter
32:59
topic. We will crush cereal with single transferable vote, my friend.
Zain
33:03
OK, let's let's put it on into a lighter note. Our next segment, if Santa were a strategist. Now, guys, political parties are probably asking for certain things this holiday season. But what they ask for is not necessarily what I'm hoping you guys think they should get. So I'm going to list to you four political parties, our two local ones here. Actually, you know, I'll go with three local ones here in Alberta, and then I'll go with the two major parties federally. And you tell me what they think they want right now, what they are wishing for, but what they actually need. Does that make sense? Are you guys good? Sure. Yeah, you seem very agreeable
Carter
33:36
agreeable to this. I'm very agreeable. Okay. First,
Zain
33:37
First, tell me about our provincial NDP, Corey. what are they wishing for but what should they actually get oh
Corey
33:45
oh they do not want to see any coal in their stocking in 2016 in many different you went with it early didn't
Corey
33:53
you gotta get it in there before carter trying to phase it out right um no
Corey
33:57
no i what the ndp really want is is a continued divided right but are we
Zain
34:03
butts now do the butts
Corey
34:04
butts go ahead but
Corey
34:05
but what they should really ask for is a merger of the right that says the wild rose is in charge because that opens up the middle to them and they will govern forever smart answer
Carter
34:15
oh what they're really hoping for is uh that their cabinet ministers just keep their mouths shut and do as they're told from the central office uh the premier's office is in charge and uh running the cabinet ministers far better than the cabinet ministers appear to be running themselves uh
Carter
34:31
uh but what they really should want is just better cabinet ministers they
Carter
34:38
are some all-stars that was
Zain
34:39
was so linear but I was not expecting that's pretty good what
Carter
34:42
what they need is I mean and to be honest I mean there's some really good cabinet ministers as there always are I mean we always make fun of cabinets but you're generally really hard-pressed to name more than like five people who are all-stars in a cabinet the difference here is that this is a cabinet of 13 people they need people to start stepping up in 2016 and proving that they are worthy of the cabinet positions that they've been given.
Zain
35:05
Next, we move on to our provincial wild rose party. Carter, I'll start with you on this one. What are they wishing for, but what should they actually want?
Carter
35:13
Well, I mean, they appear to be wishing for a merger. They appear to be wishing for additional strength to come from from the Progressive Conservative Party.
Carter
35:26
should they be wishing for? They should be wishing for reasonable
Carter
35:32
reasonable candidates that aren't going to say outlandish and stupid things. I mean, you take a look at Derek Fildebrandt, who believes he actually could be a leader, and he's just yelling and screaming across.
Carter
35:44
Grow some, like, show some leadership, be intelligent. That's what they should be wishing for. Corey,
Zain
35:50
Corey, I understand it's a tough task. You guys don't see any of these questions beforehand. I'm asking you all these on the spot. So, Wild Rose, what do you think? What do you think they want? But what should they actually be asking for?
Corey
36:02
Well, what the Wild Rose really, really thinks they want is for Albertans to see the NDP as they are. But the fact is Albertans have, and they quite like the NDP. What they should really be hoping for is that God is real and the rapture will take the most religious of them away.
Corey
36:20
leaving uh leaving a much more moderate wild rose able to compete with the ndp oh
Carter
36:24
oh that is really good that
Corey
36:26
was uh i did
Zain
36:27
did not see that coming
Zain
36:27
coming nicely done how about our our
Zain
36:30
our liberal government our federal liberal government cory i'll go back to you on this one what are they uh what are they wishing for but what should they actually be uh asking for this this christmas uh the liberals right
Corey
36:39
right now are wishing for um
Corey
36:43
i don't know what they're wishing for i'll tell you what they should should be wishing for it's that it's that canadians have short memories and that all of this promise breaking will be forgotten quickly yeah
Carter
36:52
yeah i think they're uh they're wishing for the the the initial sprint to be over uh and that they they actually are hoping for some downtime they're probably just exhausted i
Carter
37:04
i cannot imagine what it would feel like to have run that uh
Carter
37:07
uh marathon of a campaign straight into the first hundred days of governing um they've got to just be exhausted so they're They're wishing for some downtime.
Carter
37:15
What they really need is ways to bury their promises. They need to get
Carter
37:21
get those promises well
Carter
37:23
well and fully underground before, I'm going to say April or May.
Carter
37:28
All the promises are going to be broken, need to be broken.
Zain
37:31
The federal NDP, they still exist, right? The federal NDP, they still exist. Okay, I want to ask you what they're thinking this holiday season. They're off on the heels. Corey, you're shaking your head. Do you want to go take this one first? yeah
Corey
37:42
yeah i mean if i was the ndp what i'd be wishing for is that the last year was like the last season of dallas and it was all a dream or not the last season but like they're just gonna wake up and be like oh wait it's actually may and we're still in second and everything's good and let's have a redo on this because uh it was bad right yeah
Corey
37:58
yeah they don't really have a clear path forward as long as as long as the liberals are justin trudeau is more popular than tom mulcair with new democrats Democrats, right?
Corey
38:09
Like that is that is very problematic. What they should be wishing for, though, what they should be wishing for is that the liberals continue to see the conservatives as their main opposition and move a little more to the right because the liberals right now have totally consumed the left. And they need that to be vacated in
Corey
38:27
in order just to get the stabilizing ground from which then to build. They need that
Zain
38:31
that oxygen card. I like that answer. What do you think?
Carter
38:33
I think that the New Democrats, the rank and file, are hoping to see a resignation letter.
Carter
38:38
And that resignation letter would be the best Christmas present that they can get. I mean, Thomas Mulcair was never exactly the most friendly of fellows. It was a hard contest after Jack Layton passed away. And he won. He won fair and square. But I don't think that there are a lot of people looking back and saying, you know what, we chose the right guy. Everything worked out perfectly for us. so resignation letter a nice leadership contest moving forward and i actually think that that's what they should get you think so
Carter
39:05
i think that that should be their christmas present okay
Zain
39:07
well let's let's go to the last one ron ambrose and the cpc steven
Zain
39:12
steven i'll go with you this one on this one first what are they wishing for but what should they actually be wishing for this christmas season oh
Carter
39:18
oh man they seem to be going for this uh softer
Carter
39:21
softer gentler conservative party we're going to to be the softer gentler conservatives um what that
Carter
39:27
that seems to be what they're wishing for what they should wish for is that they they stand tall as a significant opposition that doesn't doesn't hold on to its ideological base quite so strongly instead goes for uh what was clearly rejected about the conservatives was that they were too ideological and they they need to be more pragmatic um and show people that they actually care so maybe maybe uh their heart Art needs to grow three sizes.
Zain
39:56
Nicely done. Corey, finish us off on this one. What are the conservatives wishing
Zain
40:00
wishing for this holiday season, but what should they be wanting? They're
Corey
40:02
They're wishing for a strong leader, right? They're looking for the next Stephen Harper, somebody who can build that conservative century they were denied.
Corey
40:09
What they should be wishing for is a strong base, and that's what they lost in the 90s when they had the Reform Party. We were just talking about them in a different context, but there
Corey
40:17
there were people who were committed to a cause, who had all of these ideals. they were coming forward and they became just like
Corey
40:22
like an angrier governing machine they became the liberal party minus
Corey
40:27
minus you know like if robots ruled the jean-chrétien liberal party and they didn't and they need to they need people like michael chong but not like i'm not saying michael chong should be leader i'm saying they need to have a party of michael chongs who truly believe in conservative values and can redefine conservative values from the bottom up because what they became name
Corey
40:47
ugly at the end of the day too i
Zain
40:49
i love it we'll leave it there for that one okay guys let's move it on to our last segment our over under our lightning round the year end edition oh boy very exciting okay here's where i want to start us off with so we're not doing one next week no
Carter
41:01
no i'm gonna be away i'm skiing he's
Carter
41:03
out of here all
Zain
41:03
all right he's not gonna show up i mean you and i yes we're gonna be at home celebrating you know you guys can't afford to go skiing no no cory and i have our own traditions i do six months away from ramadan which is a festival that i hold at my house yeah and i peer through the window at the ramadan
Zain
41:18
it's great pre-ramadan festival to
Zain
41:20
to be clear you
Zain
41:21
you have a lot of learning to do okay tell
Zain
41:23
tell me this let's do our year-end awards okay i want you and if you want to write this down you can we'll give you a couple of seconds okay give me your ultimate canadian political starting five the five people in canadian politics if you were hosting a political team of some sort regardless of stripe regardless of which jurisdiction regardless of current role give me your five people that you'd want to on a starting roster uh for a uh a canadian um
Zain
41:55
effectively starting five we'll leave we'll put a pin in that one for a second okay okay wait so we're putting a pin in that for a second i mean unless you you think you you got it
Corey
42:02
it on spot so there's probably going to be overlap but i think i got my five okay
Corey
42:06
lay it on me cory go first all right uh who which one do i want to to start with do i want to do dramatic reveal we
Carter
42:13
we gotta go with your number one all right
Corey
42:15
right okay go with your number one yeah who's on top you know what i'm putting rachel notley on top of course
Corey
42:18
you are of course you are because why are we even doing no she's my point guard she's making the play she's calling it because look give it
Zain
42:25
it her positions yeah
Corey
42:26
because the reality is as much as justin trudeau's win was impressive justin trudeau returned the liberal party to governance in canada that's like that's the lowest net at like the novelty basketball place uh rachel notley made the new democrats the government of alberta okay she's number one okay
Zain
42:44
okay number one so cory hogan just said justin trudeau is dunking on a little tykes basketball net i'm
Carter
42:51
i'm gonna tell you who's
Carter
42:51
who's on the top of your list rachel notley isn't in my top five oh
Carter
42:55
rachel notley is not in my top five who's
Zain
42:58
who's at the top of your list i'm curious i laid
Carter
43:00
laid on me brought in jt justin trudeau the human public public relations factory this is a guy who was not popular and became popular and yes he returned the liberal party of canada to power but it was a uh a tougher race than people thought it was going to be and he won a majority in a very very strong field i'd
Carter
43:21
to see the meme of like
Corey
43:21
like look he's he's my number two so i'll just say right now he's
Corey
43:26
guard he's getting the ball he's taking a lot of shots
Carter
43:28
shots with a basketball analogy because i really can't play on that it's
Zain
43:32
cory and i don't worry about it but
Corey
43:34
but so he's younger kobe like jersey number eight dug himself into a ditch and then he got most improved player that's all we're
Corey
43:45
was leading in the polls he had a bunch of screw-ups he was trailing in the polls and then he got back to leading in the polls carter who's your number two my
Carter
43:53
my number two is a little unexpected laid
Carter
43:55
laid on me michelle rempel oh michelle
Carter
43:58
michelle rempel i think is one of the most talented politicians in canada she is loved by the far right and the far left of the conservative movement she is someone who represents michael
Zain
44:09
michael right and far left of the conservative movement let me tell you that's
Carter
44:13
that's a broad spectrum my little friend plus
Zain
44:17
one's got three people earlier there
Carter
44:18
there needs to be more people like michael chong this
Carter
44:22
this is a woman who is like michael chong who has tremendous abilities and is really quite good in the media and on the stages that she needs to be on.
Zain
44:32
Stephen Carter gives the big ups to Michelle Rempel. Corey, who's your third pick? Who is, I'm assuming, your power forward now? No, I'm on my small forward now. Small forward. It's Brad Wall, you know. Your three spot? Well, you need some good wing
Corey
44:42
wing defense, and he's good right wing defense right now.
Corey
44:46
So Brad Wall. Carter doesn't laugh because he's by that point.
Corey
44:48
doesn't get this. I
Carter
44:48
I totally get that. My right wing defense is also Brad Wall. my number three choice is number is oh is uh is
Corey
44:56
is brad wall as well well there we go but brad wall uh he fills a position well he he is um insanely popular he he is thoughtful although as of late not as thoughtful as he should be no
Carter
45:08
no but he's willing to backtrack yeah
Corey
45:10
and he's um and he's a rising star he's the kind of guy you want to get on a good rookie contract and just ride this ride this pony i
Carter
45:17
i like i like brad wall i think that's a great choice because uh i mean first First of all, when you think of the premiers, he's the one that literally stands above the rest. And I understand in the basketball analogy, you need a big man.
Zain
45:31
don't usually put him at the three, but yeah. Yeah,
Zain
45:32
that's fine. Carter, who's your fourth pick there? You guys both doubled up on Wall. Who's your fourth?
Carter
45:38
She was given the biggest file of 2015 at the tail end of 2015. She handled it amazingly well. I think that she will be carrying things forward into 2016 for that government as a star cabinet minister. and an unexpected star at that.
Corey
45:52
Inspired choice. I like it quite a bit, Corey. Number one draft. You know, he's been in the D-League for a couple of years. It's time for him to get to the majors. Not head and inchy.
Corey
46:00
powerful. He can throw an elbow. Nicely done. Insanely popular. That would be
Zain
46:05
be on my political all-star list. Carter, round us up here. Your fifth pick for your starting five in Canadian politics. I'm
Carter
46:10
I'm a little disappointed that Corey went with the ninch. I mean, we know him real well here. I actually
Carter
46:16
actually went with Gregor Robertson. I think he's going to be Robertson. He's going to be more interesting as the year unfolds. Vancouver, the lower mainland, continues to be a focal
Carter
46:27
focal point of politics in Canada.
Carter
46:30
I mean, Calgary's been interesting in 2015, but 2016 is the year of Vancouver.
Zain
46:36
Corey, tell us your center. Who's playing your five spot?
Corey
46:40
Oh, Nova Scotia Premier McNeil. He's tall. He can defend the bucket.
Zain
46:47
Some notable exceptions from both of your lists. No, Don Iveson, which I was kind of surprised about. Well,
Carter
46:52
Well, we needed the height, too. I could have gone there. You
Zain
46:54
You could have gone with Don Iveson. You've left – who
Zain
46:58
who else have you left out? No other cabinet ministers, I see, which is interesting. We
Carter
47:01
We left out Morneau. We left out Scott Bryson. We left out a lot of people who were in the cabinet who were supposed to be taking significant roles. There
Zain
47:09
There we are. There's your starting five. Now, give me your sixth man of the year in Canadian politics. I may have poisoned the well, but who is your sixth man of the year? the person who comes off the bench has the contributions just when they're needed this can be any position once again so a provincial municipal federal but for 2015 who's your sixth man or sixth woman i should say either or of the year cory
Corey
47:33
cory you know it's only because it's most top of mind but i'm gonna give it to ken hair i'm gonna pick another local boy because the way he came in and saved my high check yesterday when she was talking about like it's tough just go So, Mahaichek was in town, Minister of Labor, talking about labor. I didn't bring any money. That was the quote everyone got. Great quote. Maybe work on that wordsmithing a bit. And then went on to say, you're the smartest. You unemployed oil workers, go get new jobs in different sectors. Effectively saying it's never coming back. I know that's not what she meant. Pretty grim. And then from the footage I saw, sat there deer in headlights like as they asked about Rana Ambrose saying, well, what about market access? Had no answers. And Kent Hare, who was sitting next to her, you know, as being the local MP, stepped in and got, like, the quotes in the bottom half of the article that effectively saved it from being a true total debacle. Not to say it wasn't a bit of a debacle. I think this is why people have MROs. I don't know why there's not more of a regional structure that's in place with this Trudeau government.
Zain
48:35
Kent Hare for Sixth Band of the Year. Boy goes local. Carter, where are you going? I'm also going to go local. Of course you are. So I
Carter
48:41
I am going to go provincial local and a man who ran against Thomas
Carter
48:46
Thomas Mulcair for the NDP leadership, Mr. Brian Topp, the power behind the power.
Corey
48:53
He's my coach. He's my SPG.
Carter
48:54
SPG. Oh, no. He's on the field, my friend.
Zain
48:58
There's one other person who found that funny.
Zain
49:01
to the left of you. Is
Carter
49:02
Is it the field or the court?
Zain
49:04
You know what? It doesn't matter. Just get through it. Just get through it. It's Brian
Zain
49:08
I like it. Okay. This might be a moot point. your mvps give it to me oh
Zain
49:12
oh is it is it notly for you it's got to be notly is it trudeau for you it's got
Carter
49:16
got to be trudeau
Zain
49:16
trudeau fine okay i figured that as much when you told me your number ones and finally i think this is the most interesting question for our end of season awards which canadian politician do you see has the highest ceiling entering into 2016 has the most amount of room to grow um whether it's becoming a a bigger name whether it's becoming a household name. Who has got the biggest political ceiling going forward?
Corey
49:41
the biggest ceiling? Yeah.
Corey
49:43
I think it's Brad Wall. I think Brad Wall could be prime minister if he wants to be. He just has to decide to be it.
Carter
49:49
See, I think it would be my choice of Michelle Rempel. She's certainly coming from lower down than Brad Wall. And I think that someone like her could choose to run for the leadership of the Conservative Party and could win.
Zain
50:00
Alrighty, we'll leave it there. That was our special edition of the Over Under Lightning Round. And that's a wrap on episode 561 of The strategists. My name is Zane Velji with me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter, and we'll see you in the new year.