Transcript
Zain
0:02
This is A Strategist, episode 552. My name is Zain Velji. With me, as always, Stephen Carter, Corey Hogan. Guys, how are you?
Corey
0:10
Well, I think pretty good.
Corey
0:11
This is not so long since our last episode. No, I
Carter
0:14
I know. I really am getting distracted by having you guys in my house this much.
Corey
0:18
Well, we're overcompensating for, you know, the eight days between the episode previous and the one before. This is true. Compressed timelines. How was your Thanksgiving?
Zain
0:25
It was good. We talked a lot of politics. Oh,
Carter
0:28
Oh, my God. We talked politics, too.
Zain
0:30
Well, yeah. How many people did you have over, Carter? Your two friends?
Carter
0:32
friends? I don't know.
Zain
0:32
Your family that you've got left over? How many people? This
Carter
0:36
This was my primary... My family. My parents' house. We went over there. Had a mildly racist discussion, which was nice. Yeah.
Zain
0:43
Yeah. Very Albertan. Very mildly
Carter
0:46
mildly racist. It was a little
Zain
0:48
upsetting. Were you igniting the racism or were you quelling the racism? Now, your family listens to this podcast, too. Well,
Carter
0:54
Well, we have no evidence of it. We're going to find out pretty quick.
Zain
0:59
This is true. True. This is true. It will all result in how many people you have next Thanksgiving dinner. How was yours, Corey?
Corey
1:04
It was good. Well, I had two, sort of. I had the one at Lori's family's, and then mine wasn't really at dinner, but we went to my parents' house, and we hung out.
Carter
1:13
Did you have mildly racist discussions about the niqab? That's
Corey
1:15
That's pretty much what I was trying to get to. Well,
Zain
1:16
talked about the niqab. Did
Carter
1:18
wear your niqab? I don't think any of them were. You didn't wear your niqab to
Corey
1:20
to Thanksgiving dinner. I don't think any of them were racist in nature, but we talked about the racism of other people. See,
Carter
1:25
See, that's the difference between your family and my family. family well you
Corey
1:27
you cory's family was talking about your family yeah that's
Zain
1:31
cory's family's talking about
Carter
1:32
about my family there's
Corey
1:33
there's a cautionary tale you know there's families right now out there being giant racists about this issue yeah okay
Carter
1:38
okay i'm mildly racist okay
Carter
1:41
okay i want to really make sure i'm emphasizing like there's
Zain
1:44
there's is there a difference between mild and casual racism i don't want to get into actually
Carter
1:48
want to get a
Carter
1:48
a bit on this we don't need to recreate that just look up louis oh there is yeah that's true that's
Corey
1:53
that's true anyways um it is now the stuff of legends stephen carter's family was talking about joining the clan you
Zain
2:01
the clan outfit is just a white niqab i just need to let you know that just in case you
Zain
2:06
you guys were ever thinking of converting because i've got a whole bunch of niqabs at home okay okay nonetheless that that we'll get into it let's go with our first segment our first segment quacking off on the weekend i want to talk about So not just your Thanksgivings, but everyone else's Thanksgivings in this country, as it relates to what a long weekend does during the final end of a campaign cycle. Now, Carter, I know you've been through this in the mayoral corps. You've been through this as well. So tell me off the top, what impact do you think this weekend had on the respective campaigns? Carter, I'll go with you first on this.
Carter
2:39
Well, I think that there were a lot of people talking about it and a lot of social networks convening and talking politics. I mean, there were two big things happening this weekend. end uh one was the blue jays playoffs where the blue jays won a couple of games finally and people were talking about that and they were talking politics and i'm always surprised to hear about the number of people who talk about politics uh because they they say that there are two things you shouldn't talk about at the big family dinners uh politics and religion yeah
Corey
3:07
yeah but both of them beat talking about your uncle's new girlfriend exactly
Carter
3:09
exactly that's awkward when that happens so this was people were talking about it and and uh what tends to happen and from my experience we see there's kind of this whole idea of how social networks shape voting. So the idea is that not everybody's listening to this podcast, for example. I know it's shocking, but the 25 million registered voters in Canada are not all listening to this podcast to get their information. Not yet. So the people who are listening to this podcast are
Carter
3:38
hyper-engaged and they've got lots of information. Mavens and kind of that bad flawed terminology that we've used for malcolm gladwell in the past and
Carter
3:50
at their family dinners they are they are constructing models or they are constructing dialogues to get the people that they know to follow their vote right and people will be asking them how should we vote or you know like really that bluntly oh sure who should i vote for this year what riding am i in that's my favorite one right you can play the household game where people tell you their address and you tell them what riding they're in yeah
Carter
4:11
um because it's just embarrassing to be able to do that but that's
Carter
4:14
that's what we're that's what the the level that other people are at people not listening to this podcast they are at that level where they literally don't know what riding they're in who their candidates are and then you you form or shape their vote at these big social network gatherings cory
Zain
4:28
cory are the campaigns catering to that like are they catering to the fact that they knew this weekend families across the country were going to get together and and have conversations and we were in
Corey
4:38
in the middle of an election yeah absolutely i the liberals put out specific materials about how to talk turkey i I think that we saw a bit of that from the New Democrats as well. Third party groups got into the action. You know, Press Progress had a guide as to how you can talk to friends and family at these dinners about the voting issues. And that's because Stephen's exactly right. There are people that are just trusted more on these issues because they think more about these issues and at the very least can control a conversation on these issues. And they want to make sure that they're being armed and they're able to move people. Now, in 2011, it's easy to forget the week of advance voting and the week before of
Corey
5:14
of the voting, you know, the actual election day was also on a long weekend. It was on Easter long weekend in 2011. And
Corey
5:21
that was really the start of the NDP surge. It started going into that weekend, but that surge was solidified by the conversations that happened there. there. What's going to be interesting, we've got a pretty clear parallel right now between the liberal trajectory in the lead up to this weekend and what the NDP trajectory was doing in the lead up to 2011 Easter.
Corey
5:40
Are we going to see liberals come out with the same steam? Because if they do, this is going to be a very, very, very interesting election day.
Zain
5:47
Interesting. Carter, tell me this. What goes into – Corey just mentioned that the liberals and the NDs had put out specific material for this weekend, wanting to capitalize on it with the hyper engaged that we're going to be talking about this anyways you've done this in the past you've credited some of your success in the nenshi campaign to a long weekend as well actually this specific long weekend if
Zain
6:07
if i'm not mistaken what goes into a good long weekend strategy if i can call it that what goes into ensuring that these conversations happen and that your guy is the one that they're discussing the viability about well
Carter
6:18
well i'm i the big thing for me is that you have to have something that people will talk about it can't just be another day in the election and And actually, that's where I think the liberals and the conservatives and the Democrats failed on this particular long weekend. You think so? Nobody gave us an issue that we were going to be talking about other than that week-old niqab issue. I would have loved to have gone into it talking about a new health care initiative or talking about a new idea of some sort. You think it had
Zain
6:45
had to be a new initiative? Is that what goes into it, like something totally new? Or is it a different angle on something that's going on currently? Well,
Carter
6:51
Well, I think it would be impossible to come up with something new in a 70-plus day campaign. So something that was already in place would probably be something that I would pick on. But it needed to be given some jets. And we didn't really come into this weekend with anything that we wanted to talk about.
Corey
7:08
about. So I disagree. I think that the liberals, knowing that we were going into this weekend and knowing that they wanted to set the tone for the final week of the campaign, doubled down, tripled down on that super optimistic we can do this message. Correct. That ad they had ready. Ready. was the best ad they've done of this campaign. And I would also note that our big complaint of their very first ad of the campaign, they say, I'm not ready, you know, repeating the charge. All of that was gone, you know. From this particular ad. From this particular ad. It was talking about Canadians being an optimistic people, about how the economy depends on you, not Stephen Harper. And we are ready to do better because we've always done better as Canadians and just ends with the word ready. And I thought, what a, like, that was the theme of what he said. So again, if you'd never heard the charge, you're just going to look at that and be like, yeah, I am ready for change. I'm just ready for something different. But if you have heard the charge, and most people have heard the charge that Justin Trudeau is not ready, it was pitch perfect. It was absolutely perfect. It showed him commanding a room of 7,000 people talking about exactly why it was time for change and that he was the change. I've
Zain
8:10
I've got two questions here, but I'm going to go to Carter with this one. Carter, I'm assuming you don't think that was enough. Do you think it has to be a policy play or can it be a narrative triple down that Corey was talking about?
Carter
8:21
I think it has to be a bit of a policy play, but if your narrative is not established, then it won't work. So the narrative that we used for Nenshi was he was the smartest. Was
Zain
8:30
that deliberate on the weekend? Is that what you're going with? I just want to tease
Carter
8:33
That narrative doesn't start on that weekend. We started that narrative in April for an October election. Okay, you started
Zain
8:39
started that in April,
Carter
8:40
right? So the narrative that we were positioning, all of that came out. Now, I don't even remember. This is embarrassing. I don't even remember what the specific issue was that we did just prior to the Thanksgiving weekend. Well,
Zain
8:51
Well, I know you had a poll come out very close. I don't know if it was before or after that
Carter
8:56
It was after. It was Tuesday after. Okay. But we went into it with some sort of discussion point that reinforced
Carter
9:07
reinforced the narrative, right? Right. So these things don't exist in separation. These things exist to build one upon the other. So you go in with a narrative structure that and I would suggest that the liberals have gone with a ready narrative structure. We are ready for this change. Oh, I think it's more than that. I think it's, you
Corey
9:25
you know, we are all ready for change, you know, which is, by the way, that I think the NDP slogan. But the idea that we are just
Corey
9:33
Yeah. Right. Right. Enough time. Time for
Carter
9:35
for a new leaf.
Carter
9:36
And so – but I don't think – I
Carter
9:38
I think that they needed to show something that was – that proved that they were ready. Oh, and I disagree. Most of the people that were talking issues were like talking niqab or like tons of talk this weekend about
Carter
9:50
about marijuana. And I don't think that that's the I'm ready narrative that you want to have reinforced. It's
Corey
9:58
It's interesting the marijuana thing because I'd almost forgotten that was an issue. And my mother mentioned one of her neighbors was also bringing that up. Correct. and she couldn't support Justin Trudeau and we got into a whole conversation about that which I don't need to rehash here but these things do not happen in a vacuum and part of why I thought Trudeau's message was so strong is exactly that the conservatives were still flogging that dead horse of the niqab and some of their more fearful hateful messages and I thought what a contrast what a fantastic contrast to have Justin Trudeau do this you
Corey
10:26
you know hyper optimistic message in contrast to the CPC you know the conservative messaging of the previous week And even going into that weekend. Yeah.
Zain
10:34
Yeah. So, Corey, tell me one more thing. I got Carter's take on this. I want your take. What other elemental things that are needed for a long weekend strategy leading up to the election? We talked about Carter said policy. You were talking narrative. Is there anything else you wanted to add? And moreover, do you think any of the other parties made any strides towards creating what you thought was a good long weekend strategy?
Corey
10:53
strategy? Well, you know, the other big story at my Thanksgiving dinners, and I'm sure at your guys' too, was momentum. Wow.
Corey
10:59
Wow. Oh, totally. How the NDP have gone down. Wow. wow, how the liberals have moved forward. And the trend became what we were all talking about and what that trend potentially is.
Carter
11:08
is. Yeah, absolutely. Yet another contrast point between your family and my family. My
Carter
11:12
My family was only talking about how they can only see the conservatives winning.
Carter
11:16
I think that there might have been one undecided voter at
Carter
11:18
at our table, right?
Carter
11:20
right? Really? Everybody else was on some level with the conservatives. And
Carter
11:25
And from that point of view, wanting to defend certain policy positions like the NACAP. Well,
Corey
11:30
Well, don't think those conversations didn't happen at my table. It was not universally a liberal table. But we couldn't help but note how some of those trends were playing out and discuss some of the elements in there. And certainly even that story was a story that was being woven in part by me, in part by my wife and whatnot. not this is the nature of it but like that whole what's happening out there so the strategic voting you deny exists steven people were trying to divine who had the chance who had the initiative where should that anybody but conservative vote go what were the options available and
Corey
12:03
and that to me also should be well we're gonna see in the next day the first real post thanksgiving polls come out and
Corey
12:10
and if the new democrats drop another couple of points i think that that that's it and i think I think we'll probably get to that somewhere later in the show, what we think is going to happen. So I won't go too far down that road.
Corey
12:21
this really has a chance to crystallize outcomes this weekend. Right.
Zain
12:26
Right. Corey, you mentioned something that I want to get Carter's opinion on. It's that M word, momentum.
Zain
12:31
Carter, do you feel like any of the parties did a good job positioning the momentum argument this week? Clearly, one seems to have it. But what do you need to do outside of just having it? How do you frame it and capitalize on it?
Carter
12:43
know i mean momentum is one of those things that if you talk about having it you probably don't have it um
Corey
12:48
um so yeah nobody in politics wants to admit they have momentum at all yeah
Carter
12:53
yeah i mean why
Zain
12:54
why is that though that's that's fascinating to me like i mean they'll they'll admit it probably not so overtly but they'll be like you know when it implies
Carter
13:00
implies implies a certain fragility of their vote right
Carter
13:04
right like you're getting momentum in part because you just happen to be on the upswing The other side of momentum is when you're going down. Yeah.
Carter
13:12
Right? And when you look at – I mean, the NDP is a pretty good example. I mean, they were going to win a majority government 35 days ago. They
Carter
13:20
were. They would have put
Corey
13:20
put money on them being government. I
Carter
13:22
I think you did put money on it. You owe me some money, by the way.
Corey
13:26
us both money, Corey.
Carter
13:28
But the reality is that these
Carter
13:30
these things go up and down because of the volatility of the Canadian electorate at this particular moment. moment so i'm not sure that you want to be pointing out how volatile the electorate is and and uh how much more volatility you anticipate coming in the coming days so
Zain
13:44
so momentum could be a proxy for how fickle the voter is and you don't want to kind of poke that yeah
Corey
13:48
yeah you don't want to say look my vote's gone up 10 points in two weeks because or a week let's say because all of a sudden you're you're admitting it could go down as fast in a week right yeah
Corey
13:58
so the liberals have been pretty good at saying ignore the polls you just got to keep working especially
Corey
14:02
especially when your momentum is up right you also don't want to give the sense that oh it's okay i have the freedom i have the luxury of voting new democrat again if you're a voter out there
Carter
14:10
there well let's be clear i mean i think that every political every real political operative
Carter
14:16
operative knows that in some levels the polls are wrong right
Carter
14:19
right right the polls um may work out to be the same you
Carter
14:24
you know i mean through some sort of happy accident the
Carter
14:26
the number of undecided voters that double they move into the the liberals may happen to equal the amount of voters that are voting conservative,
Carter
14:35
know, like the percentage of voters that actually turn out. So
Carter
14:39
So there's a whole bunch of math there, and I can unpack it maybe later. Well,
Corey
14:43
Well, I think we're all worried about the house effects that are at play, whether these pollsters are overestimating universally one party's support or the other. But the one thing that these guys can tell you, regardless of their methodology, regardless regardless of whether they are more likely to see conservative support or liberal support, is momentum. You can see, you know, there's a consensus of all pollsters, regardless of where they place people, that the liberals are up. There's a consensus of all pollsters, regardless of where they place them, new Democrats are down. That still tells a story. But to suggest that the election day outcome is going to be the percents that they're seeing, I
Corey
15:14
I agree with Stephen. I don't think many people actually believe that if they're the operatives. We're all holding our breath and
Corey
15:21
and waiting to see what happens. Okay,
Zain
15:22
Okay, so tell me one thing. and i want to wrap this conversation up on momentum very quickly here but i've got one more question it's am
Zain
15:29
am i hearing you both say that you as a party if you're up may not want to acknowledge it but you still want to leverage it right is that is that not true or am i off base i know you're right
Corey
15:37
right you definitely want to be saying you're the ones who can do this uh how do you do that what's the what's the fine line between walking that well that's that's
Corey
15:46
that's a good question and not all of the parties do a very good job right but ultimately it's just talking about out.
Corey
15:53
The funny thing is that's where you make it less about the numbers and more about the intangibles. We've got the biggest crowds. We've got everybody out there. There's such enthusiasm for our campaign. Things that aren't really why
Corey
16:03
why you think you have momentum, but there are things you can point to that are much safer than polls. Carter,
Zain
16:09
Carter, you don't acknowledge it, but how do you leverage it? Corey gave a few good examples there. Do you have anything to add on that particular level?
Carter
16:18
I'm struggling with that question because it makes it sound like it's It's something that you can just kind of pull out of your back pocket and make happen. Well, if you're in
Zain
16:24
in first place and you're up
Carter
16:25
up 10 points. This is the culmination of an entire campaign. Okay. This is, we
Carter
16:30
we are going to build the networks and the structures to enable us to have, is momentum something you construct or is it something that just happens? I maintain it's something you construct. And
Carter
16:41
And as something you construct, you need to be constructing it from. So, you know, when you're starting a campaign structure, even this campaign that's ending now was constructed in
Carter
16:52
right? You know, every strategist sat down with each party and started to construct their storylines, what they wanted to be talking about, how they were going to be talking about it, how they were going to deal with distractions, how they were going to deal with ground
Carter
17:06
All that was constructed months and months ago, and now momentum is the result of one of those things working,
Carter
17:13
right? Right. So you can't say, what would you do to maximize your plan
Carter
17:19
Yeah. I mean, you build the whole fricking plan. You build the whole strategy.
Zain
17:23
So, okay. Yeah. I mean, I, I, I get that, but I'm just, my, my question is more so if your plan is working, is there not something you can do to pat yourself on the back by also acknowledging to people that your plan is working? Well, you
Corey
17:35
other people to acknowledge.
Carter
17:36
Okay. So that's, yeah, it's the media, the
Corey
17:37
the media. You, you love to ferment those stories and say, wow, look at this. These guys are on the terror but you're not going to say it yourselves you're right deny it yourself you're going to point to those x factors i talked about because you live by the pole you die by the pool right
Corey
17:51
okay we saw the new democrats there's a there's a number of comments made by new democrats in the past let's talk about our own backyard here we're sitting in stephen carter's house which is in calgary center the ndp candidate jillian ratty there were comments on video of her encouraging people to vote strategically correct when
Corey
18:07
when it looked like the ndp were the strategic choice Now that's looking like advice the liberals would be happy for her supporters to take. Yeah,
Carter
18:14
Yeah, one more example of why strategic voting doesn't work because no one sees themselves ever in third place. At
Zain
18:19
At least you've made progress. First you say it didn't exist. Now you say it doesn't work.
Carter
18:24
I just want to wrap this
Zain
18:26
this discussion up about the Thanksgiving weekend with one more question. I think, Carter, you've answered it for me. But what would you have done differently this weekend? If you were leading these parties on a top line, what would you have done differently? I think you said that there wasn't enough to chew on policy-wise and the narrative wasn't baked yet. Is there anything else you want to add before I go to Corey? I
Carter
18:43
I would have given them a change – like a really solid change policy, something that people could get themselves around and say this is exactly what we need to actually have happen that will reassure me of the primary narrative that Corey is talking about, which is we're ready.
Carter
19:00
That's all I would do differently. I mean everything
Carter
19:04
everything else needed to be in place. Yeah.
Corey
19:05
Yeah. Corey? Well, you're taking it from the lens, I think, of the liberals or New Democrats. I'm going to take it from the lens of the conservatives because I
Corey
19:11
think the conservatives had some ways they could have optimized. I talked about the liberals and New Democrats provided people with those messages. The conservatives did as well, but I definitely didn't get the sense that the conservatives were as concerned about how the narratives may crystallize on the weekend. And I thought that by running into the weekend still talking about the same things, they made it way too easy for the liberals to throw them
Corey
19:33
the mat jujitsu style, taking their own force against them with that super positive message. If I was the Conservatives, I might have tried to take
Corey
19:40
take something a bit out of the box and been really positive about how Stephen Harper has marshaled us through the economy or one of their other core messages and just waited for the Liberals to take all of this steam and all of this almost reflected anger and be like, what are you talking about? That's not what we're talking about.
Corey
19:58
And that's probably a missed opportunity for the Conservatives because they allowed the Liberals to build momentum. momentum i'm not saying they could have the conservatives could have taken this weekend and taken a lot of momentum out of it although who knows maybe i'll be wrong when polls are starting to come out tomorrow but they could have i think dulled the liberal momentum right
Zain
20:16
right okay so that provides me a good segue into into the next part of this conversation which is the parties all had you know whether you call it fresh or enough to bite on a message that they were promoting this week or some semblance of a message and i want you guys to rank these messages on one quack to To 10 quacks, yes, the Thanksgiving mantra continues.
Corey
20:32
continues. First of all, you know that turkeys don't quack, right? Turkeys, they gobble.
Zain
20:37
You know what? I'm going with quacks because you know why? Because I think some of these phrases were quacking. I think us picking on
Carter
20:42
on Zane, you know, is probably wrong.
Carter
20:44
wrong. Tells you how
Zain
20:44
how many turkey dinners I've been to. I mean, from the Northeast here, we find
Carter
20:47
find whatever we can. Well, it's not like they quack when they're being eaten either. I'm just throwing that out there. We have duck
Zain
20:51
duck for Thanksgiving, okay? So I don't know why you're just jumping on my cultural sensitivity of having Thanksgiving duck. Damn. Okay, lay it on me. with the liberals. Their whole message was this notion of we are ready. There was even a moment where Justin Trudeau this weekend said, the conservatives are our friends, they're our neighbors, they're our whatever, and we need to make sure they come on side. How would you rank that between one to 10, one being low, 10 being high? Corey, I'll go with you first. I
Corey
21:15
I think it was an eight. It was eight quacks. It was a really good message because it again reinforces that positivity and that we're ready. And it's not so much that you guys were wrong. Now, first of all, great, because this is a mistake liberals have made in Calgary forever, essentially making people or trying to make people feel like dicks for having been conservatives. Well, you're not – you catch more flies with honey, right? Yeah.
Corey
21:37
You have to say they're
Corey
21:38
they're the one who sucks, not you. Did
Zain
21:40
Did it show a little bit of hubris, though, in a way where it was kind of saying, hey, we are so strong in what we're doing, we can now even make overtures to conservatives?
Corey
21:47
Well, no. I think, first of all, that hubris helps them at this point. Okay. It starts talking about wrapping up that vote. vote but second of all i think you
Corey
21:55
you got to give people an excuse to vote for you right if if you are looking essentially to continue those same polarized lines they're never going to come over you got to reach your hand across that line and be like listen yeah these guys were no good and you know that and yeah one election just you know give them a spanking carter
Zain
22:11
carter what do you make how many um how many quack or gobbles do you give it i'll allow you with the with the turkey i'm
Carter
22:17
i'm not I'm not as positive about it as Corey is. I'm going to be going to get them six.
Carter
22:23
There's no there there, right?
Carter
22:25
right? I mean, just to be nice to conservatives seems to be like the primary piece of it and the we're ready stuff. I wanted something that – don't
Carter
22:33
don't tell me about it. Show me it.
Carter
22:35
Show me that you're ready. Show me that you're ready to do something. Show me that you align with my center right values. If you're going to talk about, you know, you voted conservative in the past, there's a reason we vote conservative. Right.
Carter
22:47
Right. If you voted conservative in the last election, it's because you wanted Stephen Harper to beat Michael Ignatieff. And virtually, you know, like, what was it, about 78% of the population wanted Stephen, didn't want Michael Ignatieff to be prime minister. Like
Carter
23:05
there's a reality here that you need to show me something more than simply saying, you
Carter
23:12
you know, conservatives are our friends and neighbors.
Carter
23:15
What we want to what they're trying to actually do there is win over former
Carter
23:19
former conservative voters and
Carter
23:21
they're not doing it. Well,
Corey
23:22
Well, it was an extension of their their transparency and openness and fairness platform and talking about how Stephen Harper let them down. and they did they did talk about the conservative broken trust they trotted out i think
Corey
23:33
think even today or yesterday a number of conservative former conservative luminaries who are now supporting the liberals it's not like they just fired and forgot now whether any of that got through besides just their conservative come over message right do
Carter
23:47
do you think this is a hard time i mean sorry again jumping on zane do you think this is a hard time for
Carter
23:51
for messages to get through is it just my little foggy brain that messages aren't getting through right now no
Corey
23:56
no i i think that all of us have sort sort of reached a saturation point. There was some interesting polling I saw the other day that showed that messages were getting through less effectively at this point in the campaign. Than
Corey
24:08
You know, it's like a garbage can. It's full, right? Oh, yeah. You have
Zain
24:11
have no more room
Corey
24:11
room for more garbage.
Zain
24:12
Let me, I think I know what your response to this is. On the 1 to 10 scale, the NDP, their tagline on most of their stops this weekend was, and I know you're going to jump all over this. Ready for it, Corey? was that we have more seats than the liberals so therefore we are better positioned to beat the conservative not
Corey
24:31
not just better position only tom mulcair can stop stephen harper tom muckler you mean yeah tom muckler so yeah they got the spelling wrong on the edmonton journal so
Zain
24:42
um lay it on me what do you think of that lay
Zain
24:44
lay it on me first emotionally you how you how you think that's a stupid argument but lay it on me on on strategy because i'll tell you why i talked to someone the other day and they're like you know what that's a really good point the the ndpr actually up with more seats and and and i want you to talk to me about what you think strategically of that move despite how well i'm just gonna put
Corey
25:02
put aside i'm gonna put aside that you know conversation you had as as not data and the plural of anecdote is not data and i will tell you this right now sure the uh the
Corey
25:13
the conversation we had i
Corey
25:16
don't know 10 episodes ago at this point yeah where
Corey
25:18
where we said i'm interested to see just how much war rooms lose the plot as a 78 day campaign unfolds this to me this is what i was talking about right
Corey
25:27
because you think canadians are too smart for this well i absolutely believe okay it's too smart for this this has been weeks now of us talking about the ndp and the client and the liberals in ascent and in many ways this just reinforces the fact that the ndp have slid so much you want to talk about how you had three times as many seats as the liberals and now they're killing you in the polls i mean this data does not come out in a vacuum there is some context that's readily available low-hanging fruit for people to grab and it's not really good for you like when we talk about momentum that's
Carter
25:57
you're proving that you are desperate you are talking about your
Corey
25:59
your downward momentum and so there's no upside
Corey
26:02
hey well i was trying to be dell's advocate okay but let's we can get there sure because ultimately this to me says the ndp had absolutely no preparation for the idea they might might be this far back in third at this
Corey
26:15
And how could you, right? This is, this is quite a shocking drop. And this is like, this is the last faint hope lifeline. Let's grab onto this and pray line, right? We're at a point where we always talk. I always talk accessibility, viability, intent, the three factors that are most measurable and that you should be measuring when you're putting together a political campaign, right? This is them trying to find any message of viability they have. When you're going back to the 2011 election results to prove your viability,
Corey
26:43
that's you're not viable well you don't have very much that you can talk about as far as viability goes you know a couple of things that are different since then jack layton's gone michael ignatyev's gone uh i don't know we've gone through five different iphones like the 3gs was the best iphone you could get 2011 right my point is simply this it's it's a stretch it's a big stretch and it's too much like canadian
Zain
27:07
canadian and one that people won't buy canadians
Corey
27:09
are a little bit better than that i go
Carter
27:11
go a little bit further i mean it's not a stretch it's a lie right
Carter
27:15
right it's not a lie
Carter
27:16
lie it's a lie only the ndp can beat the the um well
Corey
27:21
well that part it's a lie that part is an exaggeration okay
Carter
27:25
i don't i and and the way that they did it in edmonton is
Carter
27:28
is taking you know month and month aggregated yeah
Carter
27:31
two month and a half two month old polls aggregating
Corey
27:34
aggregating them and saying in general in these areas in fairness
Carter
27:37
fairness is that or is that not a lie i mean
Carter
27:41
mean it is not an
Carter
27:42
an exaggeration it's not a half truth it feels like a lie this is not true data from now in
Carter
27:49
in alberta you have when you report a poll in alberta during an alberta election you have a responsibility to list the method you know the methodology used the time that it was taken true
Corey
27:57
true federally as well it's section 326 did
Carter
28:00
did they do that
Corey
28:01
nerd uh well that's a great question i
Carter
28:04
i do not believe that they did and i think that they so they probably broke the elections canada act why because they're lying because thomas mulcair is wait for it duplicitous
Zain
28:16
okay here no one's quite i
Zain
28:19
stephen carter has his hands up
Zain
28:21
victory right now i
Carter
28:21
i have one strategist give
Zain
28:24
give me a number give me a number how many turk how many turkey quack gobbles is that it's
Zain
28:28
one i the turkey he died before it so it's
Zain
28:32
it's not good i mean this this one bears a natural question for me you're in third place you're running this campaign what do you do like i mean you say this is desperate but what would you suggest they would have done in this situation in
Corey
28:42
some ways they painted themselves into this box but there were probably ways out of it and the biggest one for me so they've gone the opposite of what i would have done they've started to focus on national macro viability you go regional the desperate uh stat from the back i would go ultra local i would make Make it all about the local signs of viability and build up a case from that. In fact, I would make a national case by saying, okay, yeah, you're saying that. But, hey, how about this? Best candidate we've ever had raised the most money. Like just pull like a thousand anecdotes from across the country about how great and viable your local team is.
Zain
29:13
And so, yeah, do you acknowledge the national downfall though as part of that, Carter? Or do you just focus on that? No, you don't. That's repeating the charge. You
Carter
29:20
You don't repeat the charge. Instead, you just go 180%. See how I elevated it way up there? You go as hard as you can. Quebec is still in play.
Carter
29:29
Correct. Let's be clear. Quebec is still in play. BC is still in play. BC is still in play.
Carter
29:34
Edmonton is still in play. Correct.
Carter
29:35
You might have places in Halifax that are still in play. St. John's might still be in play. So
Zain
29:40
So the natural question there, how do you make a regional case when you're across the country? How do you do that? The
Corey
29:45
The other component is they're talking about seats one. What they should have been focusing on was the power of incumbency. Like we have a number of incumbents, strong incumbents, better resource than ever before. the local campaigns have never looked so good for the new democrats the liberals don't have any of these pieces you've
Corey
29:59
you've got to make it about the now you know they can talk about look 2011 led to them being so strong right now but to like keep all eyes focused on election night 2011 when by the way do you really want to hearken back to when we're all saying oh my god like where did these like quebec mps come from and look at their resumes like don't take me back to that time i'm new democrats talk to me about ruth ellis ruth ellen brusso absolutely
Carter
30:21
absolutely now not 2011 yeah the version
Carter
30:25
the one who's actually gone out and established those relationships in communities the one who actually is well loved in her in her uh riding association get back out there and show us them this is still the new democrats took a bump they took a heat a hit they are back up
Carter
30:44
when you're looking pole over pole, they are bouncing. The dead cat bounce is there. And if they stayed away from things like this stupid 2011 thing, and instead focused on regional-
Zain
30:54
You think they would have a better case to make today?
Carter
30:55
today? Yeah. And in fairness, I did hear one of them say at one point, don't forget about the power of incumbency. But
Carter
31:02
But that should have been what they started with, and they should have focused on their regional numbers, and they should have moved and said, okay, how do we you support linda duncan well how
Carter
31:10
how do we support british columbia mps
Corey
31:12
mps the literature the sound bites they i mean i that whole only tom mulcair can beat steven harper only needs 30 seats i mean people started being like does that math even add up i it was um it
Corey
31:25
it was i think selling canadians a bit short and i think maybe you could have gotten away with it if you hadn't had 15 daycare uh if If you hadn't had the universal pharma care not funded, if you had – or sorry, $15 daycare, $15 minimum wage, daycare spots in 2023, all of these things. It starts to paint a picture where everybody immediately gets their back up and says, I
Corey
31:50
I don't know. And the number of conversations that went on at Thanksgiving around my house, which is – come on. We actually probably tend more towards new Democrats than liberals, right? Right. About the orange apologist, about what that space was, though, and how uncomfortable people were with the New Democrats in that space was quite telling. Quick
Zain
32:11
Quick question on this one. Enough of a misplay or a miscue on this one to to cost them a bump that could bring them back into it in your mind, guys? I don't think there's a bump. I think
Corey
32:21
think there's noise. I think, if anything, the New Democrats are unfortunately going to trend down a bit. bit more
Carter
32:27
more yeah keep in mind that it's not this has nothing to do right now with voter intention those people who are stating their intentions are interesting those people who are undecided at this particular moment in time are far more interesting yeah
Carter
32:37
yeah you had 70
Corey
32:38
70 some days you don't know yet right
Carter
32:40
right but they're going to break and they're going to vote and so one of the things that the pollsters do is that they take they ignore the undecided voters um they just assume that they're going to break the normal the way that the rest of the poll goes and that's a fundamental flaw of polling instead
Carter
32:53
instead what we have is we
Carter
32:55
we were looking at it when we did the liberal strategy episode we talked about how we were seeing a small number of the undecides that looked like they would break conservative and about equal numbers that were going to go new democrat and liberal and
Corey
33:06
and i want to just be very clear on one point we are not talking about leans right we're not saying oh and i'm leaning this way because those numbers are one thing we are talking about accessibility you are undecided if pushed maybe you're still undecided maybe you're talking leaning but the parties you're willing to consider the
Corey
33:22
the accessibility numbers And
Carter
33:23
And I think that right now, we're
Carter
33:25
we're going to see significant shift just to the liberals and away from the New Democrats. And that's going to totally skew the outcome.
Corey
33:31
Yeah. And I also think that polling, when you vote, by the way, when you vote strategic, sometimes you still tell a pollster you're voting for the party you love, but locally, you're going to vote for the party. Well,
Carter
33:40
Well, that's unfortunate because there is no such thing as strategic voting.
Zain
33:46
Consistency is great. Great. Okay, last one. On the scale of 1 to 10, the conservatives this week or this weekend, their main sort of media play was Stephen Harper standing in front of the liberal tax cuts will hurt you and have that cash register
Zain
33:59
and people throwing money down saying it will cost you. What do you play with that right there, Corey? Give me a 1 to 10 and then give me your brief analysis on that. You
Corey
34:06
know, I mean, I'm sure it will play with some people, you know, like the person from small town Canada or whatever it said on the check. And this sounds that actually I think we're a throwback to this Defendi on tax on everything ads and all this.
Corey
34:18
Just cash register, cash register, cash register. It was a bit much. And you know what? It was actually an opportunity for a lot of people, the Canadian press and whatnot, to do their analysis. Like, does this hold any water? And they went, not really. The conservatives are playing pretty fast. Carter, what do you rank it?
Carter
34:32
Corey is not the demographic that this is designed to target. To appeal to? Okay. This is designed to target the base. Front row, Rob and Doug
Carter
34:41
Ford. This is what I think is interesting is that the conservatives are doubling down on their existing people. They are going back to the people who have supported them in the past, and they are content to push more of the conservative voters to the polls. Is
Corey
34:55
Is that not a worrisome thing for the conservatives? Well,
Corey
34:58
interesting to me than the message was where it was being delivered.
Corey
35:01
entrenching. They're going back and they're trying to shore up incumbents who are under attack.
Carter
35:05
I mean, the only thing that he hasn't done yet is shown up in Calgary.
Corey
35:09
Right. Yeah, TikTok. Well,
Carter
35:11
Well, I mean, since the McLean's debate. But that really wasn't a campaign stop, I wouldn't call it. But I think, not the McLean's debate, sorry, the Globe debate.
Carter
35:22
harkens back to me, to the 2004 campaign, when he came back and said
Carter
35:28
said that the West wants back in. and campaigned in a bus from Calgary to Red Deer, or Calgary to Edmonton. That was, you know, like, he has to solidify his base. That's all he's got. Give
Zain
35:38
Give me the number between one and ten, the quack gobbles.
Carter
35:42
I gave him four.
Zain
35:42
Four, okay. How did I not say that out loud?
Corey
35:45
You were thinking it.
Zain
35:45
You were thinking it. That's fine.
Zain
35:47
All righty, let's move it on to our next segment. Our next segment, it isn't over until the fat lady votes. Oh, now we're
Carter
35:52
we're going to get in trouble. What?
Zain
35:54
going to be people writing in.
Carter
35:54
in. It was an homage.
Zain
35:55
homage. It was an homage to Yogi, now who passed away just a little while ago. I like
Zain
36:00
like how you pivoted
Corey
36:00
pivoted and made it. Okay, keep
Carter
36:01
keep going. Yeah, it's good. This is Yogi's fault. Yogi Berra did this. He
Zain
36:05
He was a great catcher. Go, Chase. First question, Corey, on this, what do you see as being the endgame strategies for the parties going forward? Is there anything that we have time to actually bake in in the next, you know, less than a week? Well,
Corey
36:16
Well, we talked about this in the Alberta election. We've talked about this every election we've ever done analysis on. Yeah. Going back the many years we've been providing analysis on elections. So you're telling me my question's
Zain
36:26
Well, what I'm going
Corey
36:26
going to say is we're at a point where parties can do things, but there's a natural lag time. And the general public, how many of them are going to hear these things? We are almost at the end of this. They've got maybe two or three days to make a final splash. The New Democrats have to turn this around. The conservatives have to, I don't know. No, I mean, I think they're really crossing their fingers at this point that Justin Trudeau says something that's, you know, really puts into real strong relief this notion that perhaps he's not ready and brings back all of those things. And the liberals, what they need to do is they need to fight the urge to just hold on to a lead and coast. They need to be going for the jugular at this point and really reinforcing those messages. If I was Trudeau, I might be making a pit stop in Calgary. Really?
Zain
37:11
Really? So one goal lead going into, you know, final two minutes of the third. If you're the liberals, Carter, what do you do right now? Well,
Carter
37:16
Well, I think you have to solidify the advice that we were giving to the New Democrats a few minutes ago of the regional plays. I think you have to finish that off strong if you're Trudeau. I would get him on a plane and head him west right away. British Columbia is still up in the air.
Carter
37:33
If British Columbia sees that the way that things are shifting is to a liberal government.
Carter
37:39
government. yeah i still think we could see a significant move towards
Carter
37:43
towards liberals in the last five days right
Zain
37:46
right plus you got enough time five days to bake in if if that polling comes out let's say tomorrow enough
Zain
37:52
time to bake it in one
Carter
37:53
one of my theories on elections is that most voters and this is going to drive the voters that are listening to this particular podcast crazy most
Carter
38:00
most voters nail in their votes 72 hours to 72 seconds before they vote so
Carter
38:06
so it is not like seriously people walk into the ballot box
Corey
38:11
that yeah we're all of our listeners out there because it's so true
Carter
38:13
true it is so true though people we
Carter
38:16
we have this idea that people have made up their minds and making a rational choice some people don't even decide to vote until the day of the election and then they make up their minds literally well i
Zain
38:25
i want to get your take cory why do you why you worry why actually were you rolling so
Corey
38:28
so i will back up the the i'm not going to vote and then they end of voting. I was talking to a campaign this weekend and the number of people that ID'd as won't vote, who they then had back to them at the advanced polls was pretty funny to me. I mean, that's pretty interesting, but 72 to 72, like that's a, that's a great little slogan. I love that.
Carter
38:46
that. It helps me sell stuff. Yeah.
Corey
38:48
But I don't know. I think most voters have made up their mind. Certainly when you look at the numbers,
Corey
38:53
the number of people who say they're going to change their mind is starting to shrink. When
Carter
38:57
When you say the word most voters, you're absolutely right. Most voters have made up their mind those
Carter
39:01
those swing voters those voters that are going to determine whether or not we actually have a liberal minority a conservative minority or even at this particular moment a liberal majority right
Carter
39:12
um and i think that those are the three outcomes that we're expecting or we'll
Zain
39:16
we'll talk about those in a second here yeah
Carter
39:17
yeah or we'll go oh okay that makes sense to us
Carter
39:20
that those voters are going to propel those parties to that particular outcome com still haven't decided and i think that you can see them shift in
Carter
39:29
in british columbia in calgary
Carter
39:32
get him get him on a plane get him to the west get
Carter
39:36
out of ontario so
Corey
39:37
so i've stopped rolling my eyes i've started nodding i can i can buy into that there are a number of voters who are almost uh you know they're the channel surfers and they're going to decide at the last minute what channel they're going to land on they
Carter
39:47
they voted for every party in their lives yeah
Carter
39:49
yeah which which which, again, is different than most voters.
Zain
39:52
If you're Tom Mulcair, Corey, you addressed this briefly in the previous segment. What do you do right now? What's his endgame strategy going forward?
Corey
39:58
Well, at a certain point, they're going to have to decide. This isn't going to happen for us nationally, and we've got to make sure we come out of this. Is that certain point already here? Well, I think it might be. I think at this point, they need to start talking about how they make sure they keep their Quebec base. And maybe that means a big dramatic play to the left. If they're going to do one, they've got like 48 hours,
Corey
40:17
and they've got to do it in such a way that it doesn't look desperate. but we need you know we need uh if you're wearing new democrats to uh to ultimately think about the day after the election to you
Corey
40:28
know there's this whole casey at the bat thing you just you just wait and you're out or you swing for the fences or even babe ruth i mean babe ruth swung out a lot yeah it's probably safer for the next batter up if you've gotten yourself a single baseball
Zain
40:42
baseball analogies carter what does uh what do the ndp
Corey
40:45
ndp and by the way like my baseball knowledge is this is This is good. Jace Fever, I guess, right? Yeah.
Carter
40:50
Yeah, it's good. I'm really shocked that we're using baseball analogies.
Zain
40:55
Please extend the metaphor.
Carter
40:56
metaphor. I think I answered this. We've answered this. You've got to go.
Carter
41:01
Thomas Mulcair is not winning this election.
Zain
41:03
So he goes regional as well. Now
Carter
41:04
Now he has to decide if he's going to lose this election and potentially have to offer up his own leadership or
Carter
41:11
if he's going to try and double down, gain
Carter
41:13
gain back Quebec, and hold British Columbia. That's it. it he's got to win quebec some seats in in uh in toronto in in uh southwestern ontario yeah and
Carter
41:27
and and uh bc that's it get on a plane get to vancouver late
Zain
41:32
late to me quickly end game strategy for stephen harper well
Corey
41:36
well uh he's still got an awful lot of money behind an awful lot of ads don't count that out they've still got an advantage at the ballot box with their voters more likely to show up and an advantage with the liberal and new democrat voters having I mean, more likely going to have a hard time voting. Correct.
Corey
41:49
And look, we saw some long lines and we saw some frustrated people at the advance polls. And those are the people who are so dedicated to vote that they're showing up to advance polls, right? We've got to be realistic. Stephen Harper still has an awful lot of advantages there. And it's really going to take a significant vote collapse to count him out entirely. What he needs to do is he needs to try to trip up Justin Trudeau. He's got to try to get him into some debates that Justin Trudeau is going to do uncomfortably. I don't know how realistic that is, but I also think that's probably his best shot to a government that's workable. The
Corey
42:24
The problem the conservatives have is almost no realistic outcome looks workable for them. The liberals and the New Democrats have both said, we're not supporting these guys. And as much as Stephen Harper started off this election talking about, oh, we elect governments. The person with the most seats gets to govern. No, sorry, they don't. and when all of the parties have been very clear about what they'll do and there's no ambiguity here i don't know how much you get to pound on the table and start to pout about it because the other two parties have been very clear they are not going to support a conservative government carter
Zain
42:55
anything to add to that um
Carter
42:59
really i just think that that harper
Carter
43:04
harper is counting on 31 turning into 38 because of voter turnout right
Zain
43:10
i want to move Moving on to the notion of advanced voting. Corey, you just alluded to that right now. 3.6 million people this weekend, up 34%. Great news, good news. What should we be making of this? Is this something just that's due to the longer election campaign and people are mobilizing their people more? What are we making of this? There's a
Corey
43:28
Yeah, lay it on us. First of all, we have a whole extra day of voting. But even accounting for that, the four to three, multiplying by 0.75, still a lot more people voting. You also got to consider, though, that advanced polls are about getting vote out. You've had an awful lot more days to identify vote. So it's
Corey
43:47
it's not it doesn't mean nothing. Right. Because that that same reality of there's more people identified to drag out and that should increase voter turnout will also play out on Election Day. that
Corey
44:00
i'm the conservatives i'm very concerned because turnout the higher the turnout is we've always talked about the conservatives natural advantage and turnout right yeah well and we've talked about this in the past too in
Corey
44:11
in an election where everybody turns out get out the vote doesn't matter at all in
Corey
44:15
in an election where half the people turn out half
Corey
44:17
half the turnout is the ball game that's significantly important but
Corey
44:21
but right now if those trends continue if those percents hold we're talking about voter turnout that's the best in a generation it could be above 70 percent could be above 75 percent yeah
Carter
44:31
yeah but it's not going to
Corey
44:32
that would be significant carter it's
Carter
44:34
it's not going to hold
Carter
44:34
hold i mean there's a couple of factors here i mean there's there
Carter
44:38
you know cory alluded to the idea that this is the the gotv kicked in this weekend there were a lot of people driving their voters to the polls already but it used to be with advanced polls that you went to the advanced poll only
Carter
44:49
only if you couldn't vote on election day right
Carter
44:51
right and then a few elections ago And I don't remember exactly when it was, but a few elections ago, it's shifted so that you can vote on any one of essentially what are now five election days. And the election day itself is simply the last day you can vote. Right. So I saw people voting because they've been asked to vote by their by the campaigns that they were supporting. I
Carter
45:11
I saw people voting because they're not going to be here. I
Carter
45:13
I saw people voting because, God damn it, they can't stand listening to this stuff anymore. Right. And in their minds, if they voted, it
Carter
45:21
it would go away.
Carter
45:22
right. It hasn't. We're still talking about it. But this is there's a whole bunch of reasons why voter turnout is up.
Carter
45:30
I'm not projecting that because voter turnout is up in the advance polls, it's necessarily going to be up overall. I think that the key voters are out and voting. That's it.
Carter
45:42
We haven't I will reserve judgment, although my last prediction on voter turnout was so bad. It was very
Carter
45:49
So bad. You brought it
Carter
45:50
I can't, with any credibility, establish a voter turnout. Well, but
Corey
45:55
but to your point, Alberta, our election in 2012, big change election, you expect big turnout, right? Turnout was actually down in 2012 or in 2015 relative to 2012, even though it was up at advance polls. Right.
Corey
46:08
Just because the parties are driving more people and putting more focus on that- Doesn't mean- Doesn't mean that that means anything more than that. Well,
Carter
46:15
Well, and I also worked on the 2012 election, and every election I worked on, voter turnout goes up. No,
Zain
46:21
Okay, last question in this in this topic, Carter, I think I know your answer, because you've generally been this type of guy when it comes to this question. But if you're running a campaign, and you're 10 days out, seven days out, what place do you want to be in, in the polls heading into election day, Corey, I'll go with you first, and then let Carter rant. first well
Corey
46:37
well what a stupid concept that it's better to be in second you want to be in first you can hold on to a lead if you know what you're doing it is sometimes easier psychologically to be in second because there's a there's a there's a psychology behind like even sports teams people who are happier who cheer for a team that rarely wins because uh your expectations are already set that when you lose you're like ah yeah it was expected and if you win you're overjoyed cory
Zain
47:02
cory would like to be up by one with two minutes to go carter what's your flavor um
Carter
47:06
um i want to be in the race i mean the the when you go back to the nenshi uh election you you but am i hearing you say not in not in first no i want to be in the race or second and in close so the nenshi election in 2010 um we had a poll come out you alluded to it earlier in the podcast we were it was 30 30 31 right
Carter
47:24
right right so it was all margin of error everybody was tied and we knew that that meant we had the big momentum. We were going to win because we had momentum.
Carter
47:34
reality of the 2012 campaign with Redford is that we were in second place really
Carter
47:44
we'd seen movement in our internal polls and we'd seen movement on a couple of different things, but we didn't know that
Carter
47:50
that we would win. And in general, I prefer knowing that we're going to win.
Carter
47:55
So I'd rather be in first first place i think that that surprises me
Zain
47:59
me based on your previous answers but that's interesting well
Carter
48:01
well i mean previous answers in terms of a campaign right
Carter
48:04
not in terms of the last seven you know we're in the last five days at this point at
Zain
48:08
at this point you want to have peaked to some extent not
Carter
48:11
not necessarily peaked but i want to have i want to have momentum i want i want people to know that i'm viable going back to cory's point yeah um i want to show that if you have the intention of voting for me you are not wasting your vote because right now the person is at the The most – the person that's in the worst position is Thomas Mulcair. Right.
Carter
48:30
His vote could bleed and it could bleed exceptionally badly.
Carter
48:35
I don't think bleeds the same way because he's viable. He's close and there's polls that show him in first and there's polls that show him in second. But he's legitimately in this. Thomas Mulcair is not. Okay.
Corey
48:46
Well, and you do want to make sure you're not – I don't even want to say run away with it. Run away with it. That's great. If you're going to win, you're going to win. in that's awesome but if it looks like you're six or seven points up that's a dangerous place to be because your volunteers might take their foot off the gas a bit you really you know that old
Corey
49:03
chestnut campaign like you're one vote behind yeah
Corey
49:06
you really do need your volunteers to have a bit of that mindset you can do that if it's close but it starts to get harder to whip people to the doors and encourage people to come out on your behalf if it looks like you've just won right
Carter
49:17
right just won or are losing exceptionally bad see i tried
Zain
49:20
tried to drive a wedge between you guys guys. He gave me nothing. He gave me nothing. You pulled a Harper, but we pulled a Canada. Oh,
Carter
49:26
Oh, we came together. Going
Zain
49:28
Going with the Canada. Okay, last round. Over, under, lightning round. Are you guys ready?
Zain
49:32
Yeah! Okay, over, under on six. Over, under on six. How much should we be making on increased voter turnout at the advanced polls? Over, under on six. Corey, I'll go with you first. Under. Under. Carter? Under.
Zain
49:43
Over, under on 66%. So two-thirds. Over, under on 66% voter turnout. Over. Under.
Zain
49:50
Under 66%. 100%. Wow. I thought
Carter
49:53
thought you guys were both going to go over on this one. I think it's going to be 64. I just said minutes ago that I was not going to predict. Yeah, you did. And there I am.
Zain
50:04
Which party will have the best endgame strategy? Carter?
Carter
50:09
I think it's got to be the conservatives. They have the ones who, they are, I
Carter
50:15
I still maintain they're the best at this.
Corey
50:17
Yeah, they'll have the best strategy. It might not matter at this point.
Corey
50:21
Have the liberals peaked too early, Corey?
Corey
50:24
No, they're peaking at just the right time. Carter,
Zain
50:26
Carter, have they peaked too early? That's exactly
Carter
50:27
exactly the right time.
Zain
50:30
Okay, tell me which province the pathway to power goes through. Which province does the pathway to power go through? Corey?
Corey
50:37
Quebec. If the conservatives manage to do well in Quebec, they can still be government.
Carter
50:42
British Columbia. We are all going to be staying up late on the 19th.
Zain
50:47
Final question. I give you guys $1,000, okay? I give you $1,000. you have to split it up between these four options cpc majority cpc minority liberal liberal majority liberal minority take a second to a thousand
Carter
51:02
dollars yeah yeah we have some music to the thousand
Zain
51:05
thousand dollar jeopardy music yeah absolutely we can't do jeopardy music well we can do some parody of jeopardy
Zain
51:10
jeopardy music we'll do like a knockoff of can
Zain
51:12
can we not do dumb jeopardy music is that a parody nobody
Corey
51:15
nobody will get that right no
Corey
51:17
no one will get so i appreciate that's
Zain
51:18
that's it's all for you thanks So you got $1,000.
Zain
51:22
Corey, you have something in mind yet, or do you want to write it
Corey
51:24
Yeah. Yeah, okay, go ahead. Lay it on us. Carter's still writing. I
Corey
51:27
I think there's three almost equally
Corey
51:29
equally likely outcomes. Okay.
Corey
51:31
Yeah. Liberal majority, I'm putting $400. $400, okay. I actually think with momentum, that might be the most likely. Okay.
Corey
51:39
$300 liberal minority and $300 conservative minority.
Zain
51:44
And you're putting nothing on the conservative majority. Nothing
Corey
51:47
Nothing on conservative majority.
Zain
51:48
what do you have?
Carter
51:49
Well, I am joining Corey and putting zero on a conservative majority. Okay. I am putting $250 on a conservative minority. Okay. I'm putting $500 on a liberal minority. Okay. And I'm putting $250 on a liberal majority. So
Zain
52:04
So unlike Corey, you think the liberal minority is the most viable or likely option at this point? I
Carter
52:09
I think that 170 seats is a long ways to go from 30.
Corey
52:13
It's a very long way. But I'll also remind you how far away 60 looked from two or four with the New Democrats. Fair
Zain
52:22
That's where we'll end it. That's a wrap on episode 552 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Velgey. With me, as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter, and we will see you next time.
Zain
52:36
Listeners of The Strategist podcast, remember,
Zain
52:38
remember, we are on iTunes and Stitcher. So make sure you subscribe to our podcast on there. Also, we're on Twitter at StrategistPod and individually at Corey Hogan, at Carter underscore AB, and
Zain
52:52
and at Zane Velji.