Transcript
Zain
0:03
This is The Strategist, episode 550. My name is Zain Velji. With me, as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Guys, how are you?
Zain
0:10
Well, I think pretty good. You
Zain
0:12
think pretty good? I think so. Yeah,
Carter
0:13
Yeah, and I have really no opinion on that subject. You usually
Zain
0:16
usually have a very strong opinion on
Carter
0:17
on every subject ever. I am excellent,
Carter
0:19
excellent, and today I'm less than. Why are you less excellent?
Zain
0:21
I don't know. Well, let's dig deeper into this. Let's completely
Carter
0:27
Because this is not – the election has been going on forever and
Carter
0:30
it's not over yet. But it's still exciting. I love elections and I'm like, let's just vote. Let's vote now.
Zain
0:38
And you want to go work on a
Corey
0:39
a presidential. Come on. We are all going to be needing some time on the couch though by the end of this 78 days. It's too much. It's way too long. You know what? I've gotten such insight into the American psyche just by having to go through 50 plus days so far. Of course they're insane. Of course they're also polarized. like this is what happens you're
Zain
0:57
a compressor for 18 months
Zain
0:58
this is what ends up happening i
Zain
1:00
mean and then the next compression
Corey
1:00
compression starts right away this this is how you get the donald trumps of the world yeah
Carter
1:05
yeah it's too long too
Carter
1:06
too can we all agree that 78 days we try to once too long when
Zain
1:11
when we have our minority government at the end of this thing we're not going to have yeah no you
Carter
1:14
you know what we're doing this again in six months let's uh let's try to remember to keep it shorter than 78 okay
Zain
1:20
okay well there's a lot to talk about regardless of how you feel and how much time you you need on the couch because we've got a few subjects that I want to cover today. So let's get it on with our first segment. Our first segment, Uptown Monk. Let's talk about the monk debates. This is our third major debate outside of the French language debate that was held, of course. Corey, I want to get your thoughts first. Just give me your overall sentiments, what you thought of this debate, and we'll take it from there. What did you make of last night?
Corey
1:46
this election has given us, I think, one of the worst debates in recent memory with the globe debate and now with the monk debate one of the best in recent memory and
Corey
1:54
and it's funny how different they were right
Corey
1:56
right i mean the globe and mail was a lot of glitz uh you had the animated backgrounds the the topics flying in and out they played a bit with the format the notion that the moderator was going to be a little bit edgy and uh you know this this whole overall vibe that was like german techno yeah
Zain
2:12
yeah like a german porn set or something i
Carter
2:15
love that you always go to what what you're familiar with no
Corey
2:18
comment but on the opposite side now talking about the monk debate this was about as traditional as it gets you had three guys on a stage in front of a large audience who had to actually debate one-on-one with the issues and and sometimes you know the free-for-all still but this was as traditional as a debate got and and yet you enjoyed this one the most i think a lot of people enjoyed this one the most having the audience there gave the people somebody can Can we back
Carter
2:44
up and say a lot of people enjoyed this? This is still not an easy-to-get-to debate. On the West Coast, it started at 4 o'clock in the afternoon. No, 5 o'clock on CPAC,
Carter
2:55
On the West Coast, it started at 4 o'clock in the afternoon. So the idea that a lot of people were watching this, this was difficult to watch. It's also probably the least accessible topic of any of the topics.
Corey
3:08
Yeah, well, I would agree with both points, which is why I thought the debate was going to be a bit of a bust. And I doubt many people PVR'd the debate on CPAC like I did. I think that's a level of odd that most people don't reach. Well, that's the level that you're at.
Corey
3:22
But, yeah, and ultimately, how great can a debate be if nobody watched? Fair point. And I take that. But the actual execution in the format was fascinating. And as far as my overall take on it, this has been a very long way to answer your question. This was supposed to be the debate that Justin Trudeau was really going to be exposed on. right right foreign affairs he's not serious enough for it the just not ready mantra that's been repeated was supposed to be it applies to this
Zain
3:48
this topic the most when some would argue some would argue yeah
Corey
3:51
yeah that didn't happen at all he was uh he was easily the winner when you consider expectations that's
Corey
3:57
that's he may have been the winner on points regardless you
Carter
4:00
you know it's it's always fun to hear cory repeat back my words uh because when i said the exact same thing about the global mail debate that everybody no one was expecting justin trudeau uh to have a great economic debate uh i said you know he won and again the
Carter
4:14
the media commentary the days after the golden male debate guess who won that debate justin
Carter
4:19
tom thomas did not one
Corey
4:21
one newspaper thought justin trudeau won the
Carter
4:23
the important one who
Corey
4:24
who won one that held the debate who won who won this debate
Carter
4:28
right and again one of those things that's murky and difficult to track in time time so i'm going to come clean i didn't watch the debate i read the tweets and now i'm reading the coverage so i think i'm attacking now
Zain
4:40
now you're speaking about it well
Carter
4:41
well no i'm gonna i'm only going to talk about debate and about the coverage of the
Carter
4:44
debate i'm not going to address because
Zain
4:46
because frankly that's what you think that matters or that's what i think
Carter
4:49
think i am now approaching this the way that most voters are approaching it in fact i'm probably still much higher in level of engagement all i've seen is trudeau won trudeau won trudeau won trudeau won people who said that he didn't win the first three debates are saying he's won this debate i'm one of those people i
Corey
5:04
i absolutely believe that and like i said this is not even relative to expectations he had much better control over his cadence he wasn't there was one moment where he was really talking over stephen harper but you know what it was a moment i was so mad at stephen harper about i could forgive him for it i just put
Corey
5:19
myself in the mindset of that standard progressive voter voter um he
Corey
5:23
he he had a really strong night and even when tom mulcair was being uh you know you know quaaludes tom has a bad reaction to medicine and snaps at you sort of thing because for most of the night he was very slow and measured almost to a fault
Corey
5:38
but uh even his his really good barbs at trudeau he was very effective at being like oh come on listen same old same old from these guys let's talk about the issues so
Zain
5:47
so carter you hit on a point and core you you touched on it too this was a debate on foreign affairs and foreign policy a subject matter that cory like you mentioned justin trudeau was supposed to not be as strong as he performed last night at if you are the trudeau campaign right now you see your guy perform above expectations do you try to get people to care about foreign affairs as as a way to attract votes for him or do you just knock this off as a win and stick on message card i'll go with with you on that one first i
Carter
6:17
i knock knock it off as a win but i think that the most important part of the monk debate is that which they're trying to get to go viral right now and that is his story about his father correct right this had nothing to do with foreign policy sure it has something to do with foreign policy but if you had to choose between the story about his father or people laughing at him dealing with vladimir putin you choose his his father and and so they're taking a uh a difficult topic and they're personifying and making justin trudeau a human leader and i think that that's a really smart move because no one gives a shit about foreign policy you
Zain
6:47
you think that's the takeaway cory what do you think the takeaway is and how do the liberals leverage it from here on and after a strong performance by their leader
Corey
6:53
sometimes you just take the money and run you're up at the poker table with a bunch of pros and you
Corey
6:58
you got to a certain extent lucky mulcair had a bit of an off night harper
Corey
7:02
harper had a strong performance i don't want to take anything away from him and he's just he's the prime minister so when tom mulcair says things like who can you imagine sitting down with angela merkle how about the guy i've seen do that a thousand yeah exactly
Carter
7:13
him in the photographs i'm not the least bit concerned about it and and he stood up to putin i mean he's done things that we were all impressed with so i'm not the least bit concerned about his performance as prime minister in the foreign affairs category well
Carter
7:26
i'm concerned about things that have happened but i'm not concerned about him do you know what i mean yeah like i want us to have a better peacekeeping role but i'm not going to vote on that issue and we're
Corey
7:36
we're just not going to very few people do vote on foreign affairs that's the other reason i wouldn't particularly
Corey
7:40
particularly dwell on it the narrative out of it that he had a strong night and maybe he is ready you want to take that but the substance of the actual debate why i don't know if that's necessarily you don't you don't take that okay so coming
Carter
7:50
coming back to that video about his father and
Corey
7:52
and i want to i want to touch on that yeah go ahead with you 100 and today there was also a article by jonathan k in the walrus where he talked about how he was involved in the book and writing the book and the stories that came around it and just his sense of who justin trudeau was and this lightweight thing if anything he's He's the overeager guy who wants to make sure everybody gets along because of this broken family. Very touching story, by the way. But beyond that, it creates a very rich picture of Trudeau that if that's the picture that replaces this just not ready because just not ready doesn't make sense anymore. Finally, a three-dimensional
Zain
8:26
-dimensional picture. That's interesting. Carter, you're going to chime
Carter
8:27
chime in. We are actually seeing him, first of all, behave as a three-dimensional human being. So he's dropped a lot of that wooden kind of artifice that he had in front of him before. And now, instead, we're seeing a real human being talking. blocking we're
Carter
8:39
we're also getting this real interesting father he's
Carter
8:43
he's a father we're getting you know his relationship with with uh with pierre elliott trudeau is now starting to come to the forefront these are all good things for constructing that human modern
Zain
8:53
modern dad stuff we were talking about earlier
Carter
8:55
earlier we talked about modern dad as a as a place to go uh with this particular brand for him in our strategy episode they are moving that direction of course they they must listen oh yeah you They must
Corey
9:06
must be listening. I'm sure they are, Carter. Listen, I'm sure that nobody is reacting at that level of nuance. I think they probably looked at the same facts we are, and I'm glad that our facts look like they were borne out in real world activity. Okay,
Zain
9:17
Okay, I have more to talk about Trudeau and Mulcair and Harper in another segment, but one more question about the debate specifically last night that I find interesting. You know, when we did our CBC segment last week, Rob Brown was talking to me and talking to us about what he thought the conclusion of the last debate was, was not necessarily on content, but what he teased out in terms of behavior and energy. And I think that's a good question. Is there something that you guys saw that really spoke to you on behavior and energy? Mulcair had a bad night, and you could see it on his face that he had a bad night. Is there any takeaways that you as a campaign try to move forward as well? Corey, I'll go with you first on this. So when you talk about
Corey
9:52
about who they are as a person and what you learned about who they are as a person in this debate, which I think was what Rob was talking about. Exactly, yeah.
Corey
9:59
yeah. I thought a very astute point. Yeah, I mean, I think that Mulcair comes off as a smart but sanctimonious jerk.
Corey
10:08
Stephen Harper comes off as a smug but very smart prime minister. And Justin Trudeau actually came off as somebody railing, not in a bad way necessarily, but with a cause and a real axe to grind and really wanting to make something happen. happen and because his his anger and frustration was palpable but i think that's a frustration a lot of canadians feel about our place in the world a feeling about these arguments that the conservatives use to divide us not unite us i'm thinking specifically about the revoking of citizenship which i could do like a whole hour rant on yeah
Carter
10:40
yeah but it's you know what you can do an hour rant on revoking of citizenship and you're not going to change anybody's we'll
Zain
10:44
we'll get to it and i and i want to talk about exactly that sorry corey you i want you to continue on on
Corey
10:48
on what you're I
Corey
10:49
I think we did. I feel like I have a bit more of a textured picture of these guys, and I've met these guys, right? But it was very interesting to see how they reacted in that particular situation. Carter,
Zain
10:59
Carter, any different pictures come out for you in terms of their personality and their character and who they really are on a fundamental level for you based on last night? Well,
Carter
11:08
Well, for me, I'm starting to see them really gel
Carter
11:11
gel into who I thought they were.
Carter
11:13
I've been talking about the duplicitous Thomas Mulcair for quite some time, and I'm really starting to see that people are grabbing onto that and wondering who this guy is. Well,
Zain
11:21
Well, a major line of Justin Trudeau's whole father thing was a jab at Tom Mulcair about that very notion. And they
Carter
11:27
they continue those jobs today. And
Carter
11:29
And I think that's interesting. I think that that is a winning line to be taking with Thomas Mulcair. Stephen Harper, no one likes.
Carter
11:36
The people who are voting for Stephen Harper don't like Stephen Harper. They like the Conservative Party of Canada.
Carter
11:41
I mean, he just isn't that popular and he doesn't need to be popular. He's not running for class president in junior high. This isn't a popularity contest and he's refusing to accept that bait where he has to be popular. So he's going to try and run on the I'm the strongest, I'm the best leader. And it's going to be Justin
Carter
12:00
Justin Trudeau, by giving us a sense of who he really is, by getting rid of the woody delivery that I have criticized, I don't know how many times on this podcast and in other mediums, I've hated the way he sounds. And he is starting now to start to sound human. And if he continues that, he will be known to us as a human being because we can interact with – we have empathy for the man that he was on stage yesterday.
Corey
12:27
Okay. Well, and let's talk about something that you've talked about before, Stephen, the political trajectory versus the celebrity trajectory.
Corey
12:35
Justin Trudeau was riding high and he fell and people love to see a celebrity fall. But you know the one thing they love to see more than a celebrity fall?
Carter
12:42
Oh, the resurrection, baby.
Corey
12:44
baby. Robert Downey Jr. guys. They love to see the comeback. a rebuild and that's where he is if you look at it in that trajectory right now uh
Corey
12:51
uh justin trudeau looks remarkably well positioned for just a couple of weeks out well
Carter
12:56
well i think this is the you know this is what the real takeaway of the four debates to this point have been is that we are still not in a place where more most people are are ready to make up their mind i mean we've done a whole you know podcast on polling and and who answers the phone and those types of things i'm not going going to go back into that but i'm going to say this people are starting to pay attention
Carter
13:16
real people the people who didn't care before and for those of you listening go to you are not normal we've covered that go to a restaurant and ask your waitress go get your hair cut and ask your maybe you're not your haircut but you know um but man know what that's a stereotype go get your hair cut ask them what they're thinking about the election because i'll tell you what happens when i get my few follicles cut is they don't have a clue that there's an election they They don't know who they would vote for, and they're probably not going to vote.
Carter
13:45
But this could change it. This is now the place where we can start to change those people's behavior. A
Zain
13:50
A lot to tease out there. We'll talk about it in a future segment. But I also want to really acknowledge that point that you guys made about the celebrity trajectory versus the political trajectory and something to think about as we continue on with the remaining three weeks of this election. Okay, let's move it on to our next segment, our next segment, changing your vote for change. Okay. So we're in this position right now where we have – poll numbers indicate anywhere between 60 to 75 percent of this country wants to see a change in government in some way. And Corey, you've mentioned this multiple times, even on the early – before the writ was even dropped, that this election will be about Mulcair
Zain
14:25
Mulcair versus Trudeau. And one of them will need to rise amongst the two to be able to be the consensus candidate for change. We see some polling that's coming out of Quebec right now. We see this debate performance by Tom Mulcair. What do you make of the NDP's chances of being that organization or being that party that can persuade people to be the party of change with their dipping poll numbers right now? Well,
Corey
14:49
Well, first of all, last week, we all thought the conservatives were the ones riding their way into the ditch. Now we're talking about the New Democrats doing it. My advice remains, as always, we've
Corey
15:01
we've got to look at this more broadly and not overreact to smaller dips in the polls. But that said, you're starting to see a narrative accrue. And the fact is, these dips and these peaks mean an awful lot more the closer you are to an election. The day before an election, they're huge. A month out, less so. But even if this is just variation from a status quo that hasn't changed, you've got to be concerned as the new Democrats.
Zain
15:25
Yeah, and I mean, we've talked about parties having to make this case at a certain point. They can't make it the day before the election and say, we're the party of consensus. Look at last night's poll. We're three points up. They need to start painting a picture around this point. Is that not true, Carter? Absolutely. I mean,
Carter
15:39
mean, you don't get to just come out within the last three days and change an election. You have to lay all the groundwork all the way through in order to get it. What I'm finding interesting is some of the underlying stuff about change seems to be changing.
Carter
15:54
Do people want to change? And that question is starting to get answers now that seem to favor the conservatives. Well,
Carter
16:02
I don't know about that. So to Corey's point— Tease
Zain
16:05
that out. What do you mean by that? I want to make sure we're totally clear. Well,
Carter
16:08
Well, at one point, it was like 70% of Canadians want to change. Correct. Now we're starting to see a dip a little. And I'm saying a little, right?
Carter
16:15
right? And it depends on which pollster you're looking at and what questions they're asking.
Carter
16:21
But the point being, at this particular moment, you have to keep this as a change election first. And then the Liberals and the New Democrats still aren't. I mean, they're fighting each other, but they're still not. No one is establishing superiority. I'm with Corey. We were talking about the dip in the Conservatives last week. We could be talking about the resurrection of the NDP next week.
Corey
16:41
Yeah, look, and it's not just a question of change. It's a question of intensity of change. And when we talk about that 70% plus who want change, there is some variation as to are we just talking about a change in government or are we talking about dramatic fundamental overhaul of the country? Now, what's fascinating to me is right now, when you look at the polls, the dramatic overhaul people, the higher intensity change people are
Corey
17:05
are supporting the liberals. They see the liberals
Corey
17:07
as the avenue to that type of change, and the New Democrats as a more moderate change. And isn't that weird? Is
Zain
17:12
Is that because the positions the New Democrats have taken? Do you attribute it to some element of
Corey
17:17
of that? I mean, I think you have to. So I think math was made that people
Corey
17:21
people want more moderate change. I'm not sure that's wrong. I still am not sure that's wrong. But Tom Mulcair is now finding his avenues to victory have more to do in some ways with moderate conservatives than it does with moderate liberals, if that continues.
Carter
17:37
continues. Which still kind of baffles, I think, the people watching the election and go, how can a riding switch from blue to orange? Right. How do you go from being conservative to going to being and to being New Democrat?
Carter
17:50
Again, you're requiring the voter to have a bunch more information than the voter actually uses. They look for certain key things. These are jobs voters. And the two people who most often profess
Carter
18:03
profess jobs are conservatives and New Democrats. I mean, sure, the liberals are banging out jobs right now, but I'm
Carter
18:09
I'm not sure that they have the same credibility.
Corey
18:12
Well, I think the New Democrats tried to get it all right. They believed that they had their leftward flank taken care of. So they would always be seen as more radical elements of change. And they position themselves to appeal to moderates as well. I don't know. This was always risky. You go back to when we were talking about the deficits that correct Route 01 and the reaction was, oh, cutsy. Who knows if it works? Might
Zain
18:35
be working. So, Corey, you mentioned this. Tom Mulcair has exposed his left flank right now. If you are the liberals, what is your – has your strategy changed from the last time we talked about this as to how you start painting yourself as the consensus candidate for change? And I know we talked about doing this recently and I want to talk about it in a second. But top line, do you see any change in strategy for the liberals right now and how they start painting that picture? future well
Corey
19:00
no it's just it's about putting in the fine brush strokes now they've made some pretty good uh lines
Corey
19:05
lines that they've divided between themselves and the other two on on notions like the deficit f-35s came out of nowhere that was just a gimme from mall care but
Corey
19:13
but they've got to make clear what change means on a regional by regional basis now because the big issue sure but people vote locally they don't vote on the big issues i
Carter
19:22
i think that's just it i mean I mean, we
Carter
19:24
we still haven't seen how this is actually going to break out. I mean, I'm
Carter
19:28
I'm going to talk a little bit on both sides of my mouth, so forgive me. Wouldn't be the first
Carter
19:33
No, but I mean, I keep talking about how we're further along in the election. People are starting to pay attention. Yeah.
Carter
19:39
sure more people are paying attention, but we still have a vast majority or a vast horde of people, I don't know, I don't want to quantify them, who
Carter
19:45
who are completely unaware and will make their decisions based on local trends at the last minute. And those local trends are something we have yet to participate in. Okay,
Zain
19:54
Okay, so this is exactly what I want to get into. In the face of conflicting, you know, debating national polls saying, oh, you know, the liberals are up this week and the NDP are up this week and they're both going to be on their horns saying, look, we're up, we're the consensus party to change, only we can defeat Stephen Harper versus them making the case regionally. how do they do that in regional areas where the national polls are so volatile so dynamic where where they can make the case regionally and still have it stick what do you think cory how did how do they effectively do that well
Corey
20:25
well you've seen a lot more riding level polling i think as a result of that ambiguity because all of a sudden its value is exceptionally higher right if it was always just a race between two people depending on where you were that's all you need people to think you don't need them necessarily to be thinking about it in any more complicated fashion But as we see more three-way races, as we see that volatility impacting them, everybody at the local level wants to be able to say, no, this is a race between me and X, right? But
Zain
20:51
But isn't there an added layer there where you have to get your local voter to care more about their local representative and if they can beat the conservative candidate versus the leader that they think can form government?
Corey
21:03
Well, I think that's where this is going. So you don't just say, we're now in the race and we're winning. you have to establish a few things credibility followed by viability amongst like your essential wing so are you a more of a conservative voter or more of a correct voter and
Corey
21:19
and then once you've got that kind of viability you've got to establish viability you can win this thing because people will not vote strategically if they think there's no benefit to voting strategically and those things have to roll out sequentially you can't just immediately jump to i'm the only guy who can win a
Corey
21:33
bit of a short circuiting however is that kind of local level polling that can pay big. Well,
Carter
21:37
Well, and even more important than local, I think local level polling is part of it, but there's local level activism, right? One of the reasons why Calgary never flipped, right? Always stayed conservative. Why is it always staying conservative? We're getting more and more liberal as a city is that the people who are really big players are the people who cared about federal elections were more likely to be voting conservative, right? You never had enough operatives. You never had enough people involved. You never had enough community association association presidents or you know whomever else i mean think about this would be my challenge to the people who are listening to this show how many times are you approached with
Carter
22:12
with the question hey
Carter
22:14
hey who should i vote for yeah
Carter
22:15
right what's going to happen you know i got an email again today who's going to win calgary center three
Zain
22:20
three times a day someone will ask yeah how the hell
Carter
22:22
hell do i know who's going to win calgary center but i am you know to put it into malcolm gladwell language i'm I'm a maven when it comes to politics. Yeah, no, it just makes you angry. But
Carter
22:32
I'm putting it into Malcolm Gladwell language, as flawed as it is. Another episode. We'll do it some other time. On Gladwellian theory? Yeah, Gladwellian's flawed theory. But the reality is that those local organizers, those local people, maybe they've switched their votes. I mean, I know a lot of people in the areas that we live in have switched their votes. The people that we know that
Carter
22:56
are involved in politics or aware of politics or thinking about politics have switched their votes in Calgary at this time. And that starts to have those ground waves of support because we always talk about air
Carter
23:11
air war when we talk about these big questions. And I want to stop us from talking about air war all the time, because it's not the national campaigns. As much as we pretend that these campaigns are in charge of their own destinies, we are prisoners to the voters. And the voters themselves choose their sources of information in a random, almost irrational fashion. The neighbor down the street has a blue sign, I'm going to vote below.
Corey
23:36
That's our reality. Well, yeah. Let's look at even some of the biggest landslides in Canadian history. There is always an opposition. There is almost always a third party.
Corey
23:46
This is not – it is much more nuanced than that. And people are making their decisions by trying to read the tea leaves. One of my big beliefs is that people are actually exceptional strategic voters on a local level. They
Corey
23:58
They have a good sense of the national trends. They know how those national trends impact local numbers. If they're up that much, maybe there's writings in play. And
Corey
24:04
And they can get a sense of organization by just taking a look around their neighborhood, talking to their friends, going out. Seeing what's
Carter
24:11
best election for that, I think, is 1993, the elimination of the Progressive Conservative Party federally, right? where locally each region took out the Progressive Conservatives using different means. So it can be the Liberals in one location in Ontario.
Carter
24:28
be the Bloc Québécois in Quebec, or it can be the Reform Party in the West. And those seats, you know, those voters made their own rational choices, and the net outcome is a drop to two seats. But that election was a really interesting example of – sure, there were federal polls. Sure, there were polls that showed that – but the progressive conservatives were always in second place nationally, always. So
Zain
24:58
So I think you've given me this answer. But because I'm dense, I'm going to ask it in another way because I'm curious about this. And we don't spend a lot of time talking about the local campaign and how you run a local campaign when you've got a giant machine that is your party. So I'm going to post you a hypothetical, which is probably not that outside of where reality may stand or has stood for some of these campaigns. You're a local NDP organization. The liberals are leading nationally. You know it's a changed election. As a local campaign manager, how exactly do you push that tide of people saying, oh, but I think Justin Trudeau is the guy that could make change versus saying, but look, my local NDP candidate is up. That's what I'm trying to get to. How do you make that process change?
Corey
25:39
change? That is so different from riding to riding. Exactly. You latch on to the things that you have. Do you have a star candidate? If you're in Albertan, maybe you point to the Alberta NDP wave and how the local numbers impact and where those provincial ridings overlay. You can say like, hey, there's NDP vote here. Maybe you talk about your organization, the fundraising, the amount of money you've raised, the number of signs, whatever you have that you can point to that suggests that you are the one to beat.
Zain
26:03
And do you go out and communicate that hard, Carter? Do you tell
Carter
26:07
tell people? But you have to establish a narrative in order to
Zain
26:10
to get there. Yeah.
Zain
26:10
tell me about that because that's what I'm curious about. We
Carter
26:12
We most recently – I
Carter
26:15
I was involved with the Greg Clark by-election campaign in Calgary, Elbow. So
Carter
26:20
this is a provincial by-election campaign that no one cares about. But bottom line, he pulled 2% before and we wanted to get him elected. You have to totally reestablish the entire communication around what – in order to make him – Around
Carter
26:35
important. Yeah. And who this guy is. This guy can't be the 2% candidate from the last election. He needs to be the star candidate. He needs to be created in some sort of unbelievable media vortex that enables you to become the number one person in your region. So this is a lot easier to do in regions that are a little bit smaller, like Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Regina, where you might have a star local candidate. When you're trying to do this in downtown Toronto against a red wave, that's going to be – Or a perceived red
Carter
27:08
wave that week. Or a perceived red wave. Yeah. That can be daunting to say the least. So, I mean, part of it is can you make – I mean, we've talked about viability how many times, Corey? I mean, you're going to get rich off of that saying. But this is ultimately what you have to do. You have to focus on viability. So in Calgary Confederation, right, you've got Matt Grant as the liberal who is basically his entire campaign is I'm the only one who can beat the conservatives. Right. Right. And
Carter
27:36
And so the NDP is saying the exact same thing except Kirk
Carter
27:40
Kirk Hoisen got into the race much later.
Carter
27:45
Right. So his ability to say that is so much undermined by the reality of people or the perception of people saying you can't win. You only came in 30 days ago. Corey,
Corey
27:55
Corey, you wanted to add something. Yeah. So there are national infliction points and there are infliction points that impact everybody. We've talked about them in the past. Holidays are a big one. National debates are a big one. But we also have local infliction points. Times when you know that people locally are going to be passing judgment one way or the other. And one of them locally that's much more impactful than in a national context is day
Corey
28:16
day one of the election. How many signs are up? Because that's going to tell you right away, holy crap, they are out with force. or
Corey
28:21
or maybe there's a local debate that you're angling towards or you know a local poll because there'll only be one unlike having i think i was seeing today like two a day is the average currently yeah
Corey
28:31
so on those local polls how do we get to how do we make sure that we are well positioned and our guys are answering the phone when the local poll happens but
Carter
28:39
but again all of this is i mean this is interesting in this particular situation because we have these national polls that are three races and i think you have to ask yourself how many how many races across this entire country are actually three-way races i mean real honest to god yeah three-way races any of the three candidates
Corey
28:57
candidates can win i'm going to go with 50 i would say that's probably generous i
Carter
29:01
i think and i want to be generous right so the rest of the ridings right the other 278 are all going to be going one way you know there's there's either a runaway or there's a competition i'd say that probably 100 of them are runaway right
Carter
29:15
right now we're down to a small number again so now out we're at 178 that
Carter
29:19
that are going to actually be competitive between two parties and that
Carter
29:23
that third guy so what you're talking about is you're watching these polls come out yeah and and you're trying to get in like
Carter
29:31
how do you you know the conservatives are seen to be the people who are winning right
Carter
29:36
and but you know that you could be in this right and my my point is every single
Carter
29:41
single Every single candidate in every riding thinks that if everything worked perfectly, they'd
Carter
29:47
I was talking to an independent candidate running in Calgary Center who doesn't like Kent Hare and
Carter
29:53
and is going to run. And I don't know if he filed his papers, but he asked me to like his Facebook page yesterday. So I assume he got some stuff done and he's going to run against Kent Hare. And he actually said to me, he was at the live show.
Carter
30:07
I think if everything works my way, I can win. in and i'm like if the stars align and
Carter
30:12
no no you can't make there's no way and in certain places calgary you know uh some
Carter
30:19
places uh and let's say manitoba right there's only the only the conservatives can win those ridings everybody else is running against them can't
Carter
30:29
right like that's just reality yeah
Corey
30:32
yeah uh well i mean i think since times immemorial we've seen top level polls and had to say, is that relevant to my situation here? Correct,
Corey
30:40
And we're well trained to know that's not necessarily the case. Look, I have my whole adult life lived in areas that are represented by liberals provincially. That is such an exception in this province, right? How did you do that? I'm still in a liberal rut. He jumps around wherever the one gets elected. Yeah, he just moves.
Corey
30:56
Wherever the one liberal gets elected, he's like, I need to move there. Well, but my point is this.
Corey
31:02
The viability of the liberals in that situation has been well established by historical precedent.
Corey
31:06
And that's true on a riding-by-riding level. It's a little shook up by the fact we've got new ridings, but I know. I live in a very progressive neighborhood. I know that if I lived in Vegreville, Alberta, that it would be a conservative lock.
Corey
31:19
inept at these things. And we certainly – well, we may say, oh, that's interesting in the race for the top. I suspect very few voters lack the sophistication to know that the results at their riding level will be different.
Carter
31:30
Yeah, I mean I think that this only exists in the minds of the candidates. All
Zain
31:33
All right. I want to move it on and thanks for that discussion. I want to move on to our next segment. Our next segment, distraction or death strategy. There's three things I want to talk about that I feel like are taking over in some respect, maybe small or large. And let's talk about them through the lens of each of the parties as either distraction or death strategy. The first one, and I know Corey's burning to talk about this, is the revoking of the citizenship of one of the individuals from the Toronto 18. So looking at it from the three-party perspectives, give me your quick analysis. But if you want to discuss the issue a little bit more, I'll let you do that because you've taken off your glasses. You're rubbing your eyes. Your hair looks crazier than ever. Speak,
Corey
32:09
I hate this so much with a burning passion that they would do this.
Corey
32:14
Just makes me crazy. And what makes me crazier is that I think it's probably working. Oh,
Carter
32:18
Oh, it's totally working.
Corey
32:19
working. Let me tell you, I have to take a second to talk about the absurdity of this law. The notion that the prime minister can then take away your citizenship. If he doesn't like something you've done. It frustrates me immensely. And it's so arbitrary. And where the lines have been drawn are so crassly political. It is just beneath us as a country. Look, terrorists are bad people. So we should take away their citizenship. Okay. Why not take away murderous citizenship? Why not arsonists? Why not jaywalkers?
Carter
32:45
Child molesters. For God's sake, man. Man, like our children's safety is at risk. So let me tell you. Drunk drivers,
Corey
32:53
But this is the point. I get it. Slippery slope. A, it's a slippery, well, slippery slope's a fallacy. But like the line is just drawn very
Corey
32:59
arbitrarily to impact the voters. And that really frustrates me. The second thing that really frustrates me is that it separates Canadians into tiers of citizenship. So I only have one citizenship. Everyone around this table only has one citizenship. but if i'm convicted of terrorism my punishment is my jail time and that's it but if somebody else was born in a different country or has access to a different citizenship because of their parents never mind they may not have ever been to that country or speak the
Corey
33:29
the language yeah right their punishment is jail time plus they lose their citizenship and that is a pretty deplorable place to get to for me but here i have to just say as it is like a final thing on this issue you because it just just grinds me so badly the notion that uh you know harper was saying yesterday well war criminals war criminals we revoked their citizenship we revoked them for lying on their citizenship application they
Carter
33:54
they came to canada under false pretenses that
Corey
33:57
that is still the case we could still revoke citizenship for false pretenses but citizenship is not a question of club membership it's not citizenship is family you know what you don't get to quit families and and families don't get to quit you, and you may hate and be embarrassed by the actions of your family, but
Corey
34:13
but they're your family, and you got to deal with them, and they're your problem. I
Zain
34:16
I think that rant was well worth it, Corey. Now, but that was the first part of your answer. You had a second part, which was, I think it may be working. I want to get to that part. So am I hearing you say this is deaf strategy on the part of the conservatives? This
Corey
34:28
This is one of those issues that I'm going to give you an example. So I've seen some polling that shows that British Columbians are actually more receptive to private health care than albertans and that might surprise some people but it shouldn't surprise everyone because albertans have spent an awful lot of time arguing about this issue because we've had governments receptive to the notion of private health care british
Corey
34:48
british colombians given enough time will come to the same conclusions albertans did that is they are not interested in these private options for health care however when you just drop like a bomb an issue like this that and it's like one inch analysis it's like yeah these are bad people screw them why are they citizens the
Corey
35:03
the public does not have have enough time to react and think through the ramifications of what is happening before they voted and then we're screwed there's
Carter
35:10
there's a very good parallel a very good parallel to this and that's the 90 plus percentile of the population that supported bill c-51 when it was first introduced we have knee-jerk reactions and the knee-jerk reaction in this particular case is you know what damn right you're a terrorist i don't want you in this country i
Carter
35:28
have a hard time arguing against that except that it's just stupid in the rule of law it's just not the way that things are done clifford olson still has his canadian citizenship should we allow him to have his canadian citizenship that shouldn't be the question the question is what did he do wrong and what's his punishment and that's what you know terrorism related charges should also be this but this is pandering this is pandering to a to an intellectual level of voter that only sees things in black and white and they are i
Carter
35:58
i mean i i hate it as well but my problem with it is if i'm the you know the trudeau answer to this particular question yesterday and the monk debates was mr harper canadian a canadian is a canadian is a canadian and let me tell you something that's a pretty nice concise soundbite it doesn't mean sweet fuck all and and what does matter is that But Harper gets to stand there and say, I'm hard on crime. And that just pisses me off because he's just being a – this isn't stopping anybody from becoming a terrorist. Both of you are – yes,
Zain
36:36
yes, go ahead, Carter. Sorry. It just pisses
Zain
36:38
off. Both of you are expressing a certain amount of disregard for Stephen Harper yet have acknowledged it's pandering. And Corey, you've acknowledged that people may not even have the time to process it because it's so thin. in and it provides people with the ability to make knee-jerk reactions it's
Corey
36:52
it's yeah it's one of those issues that sounds great with very little thought and is insanely problematic the more you unspool it in your head yet
Zain
36:59
yet so the question remains deaf strategy on the conservative part are you are we in agreement internet googling
Carter
37:04
googling what deaf means like oh deaf oh deaf i thought you said deaf like some sort of hip-hop rapper thing okay
Corey
37:12
okay just because i'm bored of them always had great strategy and i think that's reflected in the title and and i think for the conservatives as
Carter
37:17
as its death strategy as much as its stupid freaking policy it's it's
Corey
37:22
it's great politics it's atrocious from a statesman standpoint if
Carter
37:26
if i've done this i've did this with the roaming debate like we we were going to you know allison redford put out a roaming policy it's a federal area totally meaningless
Zain
37:33
meaningless but we did it under the consumer
Carter
37:35
consumer protection act right uh it's actually we found a pretty good loophole bernard lurd still pissed at me i think but uh the the the The reality is that you
Carter
37:46
you can do these stupid policy initiatives and they can have tremendous impact if you choose them wisely and Stephen Harper has chosen wisely. Let's
Zain
37:54
Let's talk a little bit about the liberal and the NDP response. Do they need to change the channel on this or should they engage, Corey? I don't think you engage.
Corey
38:01
You said – I mean if I engage, the thing I've been throwing at people on Facebook who say that – because somebody said the other day like I'm really not comfortable with Justin Trudeau's new position that terrorists should be allowed to keep their citizenship. And I'm like, well, I'm really not comfortable with Stephen Harper's new position that murderers should keep their citizenship, was my response. Like, I think the absurdity of this should be noted and then move on. Spend very little time on this. I
Carter
38:24
I wouldn't even note the absurdity. I mean, I started to pin a response on Facebook and I stopped because there is no way I can do a response on Facebook that will sway someone's mind. And my argument looks weaker than their argument. I
Zain
38:41
I want to move it on to our next issue on deft strategy. Thank you
Carter
38:44
you for the T. I appreciate that.
Zain
38:46
that. Deft strategy. You know, most deft left out the T. I'm just going to let you know that. I was thinking deft leopard.
Zain
38:50
He used to be the most deft. I'm just saying.
Zain
38:53
Okay. Our second one on deft strategy versus distraction, the niqab debate.
Zain
38:58
Where do you see this being framed right now? Is this a distraction electorally for any of the parties or is this deft strategy by one of them or a few of them to be engaging on this subject matter? Carter, I'll start with you first on this one. Am I
Carter
39:11
I making the same face that Corey was making?
Zain
39:13
Yeah, it's the exact same face. Less hair, though. Less hair to look crazy. I'm still pissed
Carter
39:17
pissed off about it. I mean, this is deft strategy by the Bloc Québécois and the Conservative Party. If you look at this, this, I mean, what
Carter
39:26
what are we going to call it? I'm going to call it racial profiling. Am I going to call it ethnic identification, ethnic hate? I'll do all
Zain
39:33
all of the above. I
Carter
39:33
I mean, and basically they are playing to people's base emotions in the same fashion that they are with the, you know, lose your citizenship piece, which is you should show your damn face in this country. And you sound like a redneck. You sound like someone who comes from the south. You sound like a racist. But you know what?
Carter
39:49
It appears that about 40% of Quebecers are willing to accept that argument. You're seeing
Corey
39:53
seeing significant shifting. Corey, I would say more. I'm not going to paint them with that brush necessarily. Why not? The
Corey
40:01
The lens they look at it through is very different. They see this as a question of people being forced to wear it in the cab, which is nonsense. I think that – well, we've all heard it. And the politicians have actually been pretty good at pointing out like, well, you're now trying to force them to wear what you want them to
Carter
40:16
to wear. Then where are the politicians to take their grand scans against all religion and all religious practices that we find a little bit offensive? You know, like religions were allowed for centuries to oppress women. They're still oppressing women. And none of them are
Zain
40:32
saying – I want to get to Corey's point.
Zain
40:34
just getting angry. I
Corey
40:35
I was sitting there nodding along with you in the sense that, well, to the first part, let's pump the brakes a bit on the second part. I'm just saying. The fact of the matter is, yeah, this sucks. And it's very much along the same lines as that citizenship revoking thing. It sounds okay
Corey
40:51
okay and even reasonable with a moment's thought. Like, my God, yeah, I mean, it's a very oppressive garb, right? Like, forget it. And the average Quebecer doesn't go any further than that. Set it
Zain
40:59
it and forget it sort
Carter
41:00
sort of type of reaction. I think you're undermining the sinister nature of this. Well, I'm not. There's a population
Carter
41:06
population that's saying, ironically,
Carter
41:09
ironically, a minority population in Canada saying, keep those damn minority populations out of here.
Corey
41:14
Jock Perizzo all over again. I'm not negating that for a minute. And I think the people pulling the strings know damn well what they're doing and they should be ashamed of themselves. Uh-huh.
Corey
41:22
You sing it, girlfriend. The average Quebecer is looking at this issue not with malice in their heart. There are a lot of Quebecers who are xenophobic.
Corey
41:31
There are, but there's a lot of Canadians everywhere who are xenophobic, as we've seen from some of the polling
Carter
41:35
results. But pandering to those voters is not the way to form
Zain
41:40
you have a point? I disagree
Corey
41:41
because apparently it is. It's
Carter
41:42
just – okay, but shouldn't
Zain
41:44
shouldn't we have some principles? Here's what I want to get into, okay? Last time when I asked should the liberals or the NDP be doing anything about the whole issue with the citizenship, you guys said no, either address the absurdity or change the channel completely. How about on this issue? Is there something more fundamental to defend on this issue and to extend the cycle of that that can win them votes, Corey? Well,
Corey
42:04
Well, it's a question of does it play in all time zones? And there's no question in Quebec that the NACAB issue is a winner for the bloc and the conservatives. I think it's very less clear cut elsewhere. And I think there's a there's a civil liberties voter out there who is quite active and who donates their time and money who is appalled by this. And there's probably a larger group of them than there is on the citizenship revocation thing. thing so i think is there a new canadian voter that's a huge new canadian thing i i mean i i guess i almost took that for granted there would be a big new canadian element to that and new canadians uh you know muslim canadians in particular who who make up the difference in a lot of these writings that jason kenney has spent the last 10 years courting i think they just burned all of that capital on this issue because
Corey
42:46
because it is one of those symbols politics thing that has an outsized effect carter
Zain
42:50
carter what do you think should the should the ndp and the liberals be be making hay out of of this? Should they be extending the cycle on this to issue their response and putting their foot down as to where they stand? Or do they need to change the channel on this as a distraction? The
Carter
43:01
The NDP is absolutely in chaos internally on this. You're already seeing Quebec candidates in the NDP distance themselves from Mulcair's position. I think this is a terrible position. Get the hell away from it. Just get away from it as fast as you can. Change
Corey
43:19
Change the channel. The NDP have to change the channel. The liberals don't necessarily need to as much, which is why if I'm them, I probably still talk about it. I
Carter
43:28
mean, if the liberals, it could actually hurt the NDP.
Corey
43:31
NDP. Well, Charter of Rights and Freedoms, as we were reminded yesterday, that was Pierre Elliott Trudeau's government. Yeah.
Zain
43:37
Yeah. I want to move it on to our last question in this segment, and a little bit cheekier, because there's
Zain
43:42
there's something that seems to be happening this cycle that I haven't seen before, and that is a ton of emphasis, media emphasis in particular, on the strategists that are involved in these campaigns. campaigns, full profiles on the NDP strategists, the liberal strategists on Anne McGrath, Katie Telford, you know, Jenny Byrne, a full profile on Jerry Butts. If you are within these campaigns, first, I just want to get your thoughts on number one, why you think that's happening? And number two, is it a distraction to be putting out profiles of the strategists, the people behind the scene? I know, Carter, you've had a few done of yourself as well. Well, I was
Corey
44:15
was just gonna say, Carter's on the vanguard of this. He was the original celebrity strategist in Alberta before Before that, and the model of strategist I tend to have been is that they should be neither seen nor heard. Right. We've mentioned
Corey
44:26
that multiple times on this podcast. The media loves a good process story. And there's something about that, like no bullshit straight from the horse's mouth. Listen, I'll tell you what the strategy is because I'm just that honest about it. That really plays so
Corey
44:40
so well. It's this cycle's process story.
Carter
44:44
Yeah, but we've seen it actually longer than this cycle. I haven't
Zain
44:48
haven't seen it in this intensity or volume in a long time. I
Carter
44:51
I think it starts in actually 1992.
Carter
44:56
with the War Room documentary. Oh, sure. Filmed during the Clinton campaign. And the War Room documentary. Carvel.
Carter
45:04
Yeah, it was Carvel and Stephanopoulos. And Begala. Begala? Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Carter
45:13
I call him Paul. He and I are Paul.
Carter
45:16
from 1992 that begins the the that particular type of process story into uh the various war rooms whether it's carl rove or i mean there's i mean they
Zain
45:27
they made celebrities out of david axelrod and david ploff and all these people behind the scenes even on the obama side
Carter
45:33
side well exactly and now that shifted to canada i mean and i i was one of the i was the first in alberta i mean i think that there were other national strategists who kind of took it i
Corey
45:42
i think rod love would disagree agree but you know i
Carter
45:44
i was the first one to get profiled rod would never talk to the media on the record ron would only talk to the to the media off the record and uh but anyways i digress um the point being this this time so the the the randy dawson's the world so the people the old generation of political strategists who aren't very effective anymore um that was an inside joke for us uh they
Carter
46:08
shunned the media they didn't want to be in the spotlight they thought that it took away from their message of the day what they didn't realize
Zain
46:13
realize it was a distraction
Carter
46:14
didn't realize that the message of the day could be cultivated and and taken and included into a into a profile interesting
Zain
46:22
you're saying it's deaf strategy and all their parts to agree to this well
Corey
46:26
to go a step further and say in this kind of world where everything's out there and everything's exposed that
Corey
46:30
that you know there's that old saying if you don't open the door you don't want them to come through the windows open the doors oh
Carter
46:35
oh yeah it's the same thing
Corey
46:37
to get the story they're going to get the story and they're going to be making speculative comments about what your strategy was, so just tell them what your strategy was. Exactly.
Carter
46:46
Just do the strategy because then it's your strategy, your message, your opinions, as opposed to the strategy of the media interpreting it.
Zain
46:58
I like that. Okay, I want to move it on to our last segment. Our last segment, our lightning round, our over-under. Guys, are you ready? Corey, that was an unnatural cheer from you. First question. I thought it was gassy. Over
Zain
47:08
Over-under on seven, Justin Trudeau's debate performance. Corey? Over.
Zain
47:15
Sounds like over. I like that. Does this debate contribute anything to Mulcair's dip that we've seen in Quebec? Yes or no? Carter? I
Zain
47:23
I think he's going to keep dipping.
Corey
47:26
Yeah, I don't think that he stopped the flow, but I also for a bilingual debate, it was mostly in English. There's still the big TVA debate coming up, so there is one more French debate for Mulcair to reset. Yes
Zain
47:36
Yes or no? Will the Liberals on the New Democrats starting and consistently responding to the citizenship issue hurt them in the long term of this campaign?
Corey
47:44
Yeah, I mean, there is no more long-term, short-term, Zane. Yeah, good point. Less than three weeks to go. They
Carter
47:49
They got to change
Carter
47:49
channel or it's going to hurt them badly.
Zain
47:52
One word for describing the people who always seem to count Stephen Harper out?
Zain
48:00
I love that. There's a lot of hyphens
Zain
48:02
in that word. I
Carter
48:02
I was just going to go with the media.
Zain
48:04
That's still two words.
Zain
48:07
Yes or no? Yes or no? One week before election day, so about two weeks from now, is
Zain
48:12
is there one party making a stronger change for being the consensus party of change? Is there a stronger case for consensus party of change? Yes or no? Corey? Yes.
Zain
48:21
Yes. Carter? And I'll ask you, which party? Well,
Corey
48:23
Well, I'm going to say it's going to be the Liberals because right now they've got the momentum. And I think with the time narrowing at this point, I
Corey
48:30
I actually think the conservative moves – and I'm stealing this from Stephen – the conservative moves could backfire because with them being a little up in the polls, people all of a sudden are saying, oh
Corey
48:39
oh shit, it's going to happen again. We've got to get behind one horse here.
Corey
48:43
Carter? I think it's going to be the Liberals.
Carter
48:44
Well, I agree with Corey because he took my lines. And
Zain
48:48
And that's a wrap. We will end it there. Corey took my lines. That's a wrap of Episode 550. My name is Zane Velji with me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter, and we will see you next time.