Transcript
Zain
0:03
This is a Strategist episode 4012. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Shannon Phillips, Stephen Carter. It's a banana plus one, Carter.
Carter
0:11
It's a banana plus one. What is a banana plus one? I mean, 4012.
Carter
0:15
4012. Are we buying some sort of unique pineapple or something like that or some sort of like
Carter
0:21
like now I'm all confused. is well
Zain
0:22
well you want to know if there's actually a produce code if there's
Carter
0:24
there's a produce number
Carter
0:26
called 4012 i'm buying it today i gotta go to the grocery store and make sure we have food for dinner because
Carter
0:32
because you know the olympics have been on and i've been i've been following the olympics non-stop and that's meant that i've had no uh no time for things like uh you
Carter
0:41
you know buying navel oranges at the uh at the grocery store nicely
Zain
0:46
nicely done carter yeah that's a man of the the people that's a man of the people moment that's a self-checkout man of the people moment
Carter
0:53
i've done the self-checkout before yeah
Carter
0:56
i mean never with produce but i have done it before like
Carter
0:59
like i bought ice cream for myself the other day because i was feeling sad uh
Carter
1:02
uh because you know the canadians weren't doing so good in the first week of the olympics yep
Carter
1:06
yep and uh i
Carter
1:08
i bought ice cream for myself i'm gonna go buy ice cream for myself again because the canadians almost lost to chet Sien, which
Carter
1:17
You probably don't even know what country that is, Sien.
Zain
1:20
I know it as the Czech Republic.
Carter
1:23
Do you know where it is? Could you point it out on a map?
Zain
1:25
Definitely could not. No.
Zain
1:27
You're an American at heart.
Carter
1:28
You're an American at heart.
Zain
1:31
Shannon, if Alberta were a country, how well would we be doing at the Olympics?
Shannon
1:34
Given that a lot of our training goes on either in or adjacent to a national park, and you have to take what's called the Trans-Canada Highway to get there, given that a lot of our funding comes from the federal government for our athletes, I feel like not so well because, I
Carter
1:54
I don't know, to
Shannon
1:56
to use a Jason Kenney-ism, nationalist tub-thumping is not an Olympic sport.
Zain
2:03
Well, that is the wrong answer because according to Juno News, their analysis suggests that independent Alberta would be an olympic chug or not now it is paywalled uh
SPEAKER_02
2:15
i'm willing to buy it
SPEAKER_01
2:18
willing to buy a subscription but
Zain
2:18
but i'm willing to buy the headline i'm willing to buy the headline carter we would be olympic chug or not you
Carter
2:23
you know news is one of my go-tos
Zain
2:26
yeah likewise shannon and i feel like for your birthday we're gonna get you a subscription carter my birthday's
Shannon
2:31
birthday's past uh you'll recall there were bouquets of flowers you guys didn't even even recognize it it was a big one you didn't even care you know
Zain
2:39
so you can't buy shannon a subscription to judah no you know what we need to get shannon a subscription to this article that's all thank you
Carter
2:45
you no no we could do our
Carter
2:47
subscription to the podcast
SPEAKER_02
2:50
do you like this
Zain
2:50
first three minutes uh knowing that shannon's on a tight 45 and that she's
SPEAKER_02
2:54
got to get out of here i
Carter
2:56
like it's a good use is that what that meant when she was texting back and forth okay
Zain
3:01
sure was okay i've got i've got three topics to cover a
Zain
3:04
a minimum of three topics in a tight
Zain
3:09
how do we do that well i keep you on track i don't let you fucking say shit that is useless carter men's
Carter
3:13
men's uh 500 meter quarter final starting in a few minutes here 10 minutes carter
SPEAKER_01
3:20
i don't know how
SPEAKER_01
3:21
hilarious that is how
Zain
3:22
how hilarious stephen carter is
Zain
3:24
is it that matt jenner is now a liberal mb well
Carter
3:30
believe you said it you said said it on the old X machine, this would never have happened if Pierre Polyev hadn't convinced him to stay.
Carter
3:39
If he had resigned when he actually said he was going to resign, there'd have been a by-election. And you know who would win that by-election? The conservatives. I
Shannon
3:47
I think they would have. Yeah. Even
Zain
3:48
Even on Carney's high, I agree with you. I agree that that would have been a conservative seat. I know many people would disagree, but I think all come to the demos of that place and the history of that place.
Carter
3:59
place. these many people and how many times have they been on the hurly burly podcast you know
Carter
4:03
that's the only people who would agree with that the
Carter
4:06
the hurly burly podcast being wrong all the time is one of their their
Carter
4:10
their uh their core core tenants uh
Zain
4:14
that side swipe about i don't even understand what
Carter
4:17
what do you mean side swipe we're against them since they decided that uh jamil giovanni is ugly remember that oh
Zain
4:24
oh sorry yeah we're
Shannon
4:25
we're we're firmly in the jamil giovanni is hot camp.
SPEAKER_02
4:28
Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's where we're at. This is the Chimani is sexy camp is this podcast. No, we're in the
Shannon
4:37
Which everybody knows is not true. Ask any woman in politics. But I think... Here
Zain
4:42
Here we go. Now we're going viral. I've probably got to look good for this viral clip that gets posted. Put on your
Shannon
4:48
jean jacket, Zane. Yeah, there we go.
Shannon
4:53
moves us closer to a liberal majority and And solidifies the fact that there might be more floor crossers because if they're crossing over to a place where they don't have to face the electorate for three years, that's a lot better than having to face the electorate in six months. So the Liberals are in good shape here. And I think,
Shannon
5:13
think, well, it's not great form on Gennaro's part that he's now going to stay after
Shannon
5:20
after saying that he was going to leave. Like, it just looks really
Shannon
5:24
really bad. But everyone's going to forget about that.
Shannon
5:26
And really what this allows Carney to do is is to continue to do, as we've been saying for months here, which is to govern with a de facto majority, even if he doesn't have one.
Zain
5:36
There's no political price, Shannon. Is there for Gennaro to stay? Like, I know Carney's going after him. You know, you betrayed the people of Edmonton Riverbend who voted for affordable food and homes, safe streets at a strong resource sector. Which, by the way, what? Who
Zain
5:54
Who says who speaks like that? Who speaks like that? So fucking weird. But also, is there like objectively an electoral riding level price for Gennaro? Or is this just a, I hate to say it, just a liberal coup all around?
Shannon
6:09
Well, I mean, I would hate to be his constituency assistant replying to the emails this morning. I imagine that's a bit
Shannon
6:16
bit of a shitstorm, that inbox, because that is the reality that there's going to be a tsunami of really unpleasant messages coming into that constituency office. And I feel sorry for whoever that person is that has to receive them.
Shannon
6:33
But I mean, some people will be some there will be upset people in
Shannon
6:37
in a place like Remington River Bend, like they vote, they
Shannon
6:41
they vote federal conservative, that's a thing they do.
Shannon
6:44
Even when they vote NDP, which they also do provincially, they're
Shannon
6:47
they're doing so out of a much more sort of liberal tradition, because those that area went provincially liberal for a long time, too. too.
Shannon
6:59
think, you know, like, so he would be voted out if there was an election tomorrow. I'm almost certain of it.
Shannon
7:05
But it doesn't matter because there isn't one.
Zain
7:07
Exactly. No, and Carney seems to be going down that path even further. Okay, so there's a couple of things I want to dissect in the 15 minutes. And Carter, can I go to you on this?
Zain
7:17
Was this a good move for Gennaro? Like, Carney's arguably at the peak of his polling powers right now. He's coming off a high. There There seems to be an extended honeymoon or maybe this is the new normal for Mark Carney. I don't I don't know, although I still would, you know, if pushed, would say this is an extended honeymoon for Mr. Carney.
Zain
7:36
He's still a sitting MP. He crosses over. He helps in a certain way. We're hearing to what Shannon's point says that there's potentially a pipeline. But in this case, he's a one of one that crosses over on his own. Today is Matt Jenner day.
Zain
7:49
What do you think of this move for for Jenner? I
Carter
7:51
mean, he was he was a dead man walking in the conservative caucus. You know, they were this this is he's still going to be an MP now instead of being an ex-MP. He gets to jump over to the
Carter
8:07
to the to the liberals. He's
Carter
8:09
He's not I don't think he was ever thinking about trying to be reelected. He's been there for, I
Carter
8:16
I can't remember how many years, but he's more than qualified for his pension. He's absolutely set up for the rest of his life, you know, when he gets old anyways. And, you
Carter
8:29
I don't know that people were jumping out of their skin to hire Matt Gennaro anyways.
Carter
8:34
So this is an opportunity for him to continue his career as a member of parliament and maybe elevate himself, you know, become a committee chair at some point or something along those lines. It looks like Mark Carney's government will continue to be the government for a little while.
Carter
8:53
But I don't think this is a bad move for Matt Gennaro at all. I think this is a pretty good day because
Carter
9:00
because his alternative was that he was going to be a former member of parliament.
Zain
9:05
Shannon, from Gennaro himself, quite honestly, it was a speech in Davos that felt, you know, disingenuous and it's quite simply wrong to be sitting on the sidelines anymore so I reached out to the PM's office and I'll be joining the caucus and I couldn't be more proud to be here. This is part of the televised presser that Gennaro was doing earlier today
Zain
9:26
if not just an hour ago What do
Zain
9:31
do you think of this for Gennaro, for Matt given where he was what this looks like there'll obviously be conservatives who say this is is disappointing, like Jason Kenney already has. But what do you think of this move for him and the rationale he has?
Shannon
9:46
Well, these are the words of a guy who wants to get into cabinet.
Shannon
9:49
Because when you're in the backbench of the Liberal caucus, you're still kind of on the sidelines, unless you have some kind of role within the executive council.
Shannon
9:59
And so this is the guy who's making his play for cabinet. Good on him, you know, points for ambition.
Shannon
10:08
that's all you can really read this as. You know, I imagine that Carney is running a shop where you have to prove yourself first. And we still have a shuffle to come at some point, probably after the by-elections. And so I don't know if he would put floor crossers in that first shuffle. Unlikely, because there's other people who have been working hard and who actually ran
Shannon
10:31
ran under the liberal banner that are probably more
Shannon
10:34
more likely to get in there. But that's what he's up to.
Shannon
10:37
And, you know, he could see himself comfortably within the Carney government. And that's a great commentary on the Carney liberals. They're doing it on both sides of the ideological spectrum from,
Shannon
10:53
you know, some pretty left wing liberals or a New Democrat in Ontario, Daniel Martin and Jerry
Shannon
11:01
or Dolly Begum recruits.
Shannon
11:04
recruits. And then on the other side was now three conservative floor crossers, you know, for a guy that we all said was going to suck at politics. And still, sometimes I think they do are
Shannon
11:15
are still finding their training wheels a little bit on, you know, stakeholder management and some things you can see them stumble.
Shannon
11:23
He's actually been pretty good at the fuckery parts of politics.
Zain
11:27
Carter, speaking of fuckery, what level of fuckery does this cause? One to your fellow former co-host of the Strategist podcast, Corey Dye Hogan from Calgary Confederation. The
Carter
11:38
The parliamentary secretary to the minister of podcasts?
Zain
11:41
that's right. That is correct. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I think that
Carter
11:45
don't think it has any impact at all. No, I
Carter
11:47
I think that Mark
Carter
11:49
Mark Carney might be the closest to running a meritocracy in in
Carter
11:54
cabinet of any prime minister that we've seen before.
Carter
11:58
I don't think that we see him just appointing his friends because they're his friends. And I think that that was one of the critiques of the Justin Trudeau government was that, you
Carter
12:06
you know, he would just appoint his friends because they were his friends.
Carter
12:10
Mark Carney's friends, first of all, are in a different league all to themselves. And I think that if
Carter
12:17
our friend Corey makes it into cabinet, it's because of a merit issue, not because necessarily of a politics issue.
Zain
12:24
Now, that is a quotable quote. Really, really good, Carter. We're going to actually bumper sticker that. If Corey doesn't make it into cabinet, it's a merit issue. Thank you. I'm just going to make sure we memorialize that quote. But please
Zain
12:36
please go on. We've known this guy for years. years his incompetence is well
SPEAKER_01
12:41
known to us i
SPEAKER_01
12:42
mean the kids call it a
Shannon
12:43
yeah it's a skill issue
Carter
12:45
it's a meritocracy i think that this is going to be i
Carter
12:48
i think that we're going to see um
Carter
12:50
um a cabinet shuffle at some point you know we were anticipating one before the before the office you know before the uh session started uh didn't get one in part because mark carney was flying all all over the known world, uh, doing, uh, getting ready for his Davos speech. Um,
Carter
13:09
I think that, you know, the end of this session, we can see a cabinet shuffle. Would I expect to see Mark, uh, Corey Hogan in it? Nope.
Carter
13:17
No expectations. There's no expectations for anybody, uh, across this country, because I think that ultimately, um, Mark Kearney is going to put, you know, uh, put together the best possible cabinet, um,
Carter
13:29
um, to address the issues of the day And the issues of the day may include Alberta separatism, may include Quebec separatism. They will be changing from what the issues of the day are today.
Zain
13:42
And compound this with my second topic, which is Jamil Javani and now Jamil Javani post-Washington trip going on Breitbart saying that Canadians are having a hissy fit. Look
Zain
13:53
Look at the Pierre Polyev frame and then I'll get to Jamil in a second, if that's cool. Combine Gennarou and Javani for me.
Zain
14:00
how bad is this for Polyev? Like, we can look at it from the frame of majority territory. We can look at it from caucus management. Both of those things are related, but also can be considered isolated in terms of how you want to view it in terms of his leadership.
Zain
14:16
Is this a momentary burn, or is this like third, fourth degree that has a lasting impact for Pierre Polyev?
Shannon
14:25
I'm going to take a bit of a contrarian position on how Polyev reacted to Giovanni. I actually thought it was good because
Shannon
14:31
because he was saying both to Canadians, like, actually, no, this far and no further.
Shannon
14:36
For me, it allowed him to kind of like Canadians have been wondering. So where are you at on Trump?
Shannon
14:42
Right. Where are you at on the Americans? Are you too soft on them? And
Shannon
14:45
And he essentially said, no, I'm not interested in Giovanni's approach. And it was more of a no, no, actually, you can trust me a little bit more on Trump and I'm going to push back on him. It's also good for caucus management. Whenever the leader is out saying I'm the leader.
Shannon
15:01
And, you know, people are going to say what they're going to say. Caucus members go, OK, not only do
Shannon
15:06
do I have the freedom to kind of say things if I want to, but
Shannon
15:11
I also know where the leader stands.
Shannon
15:14
And more often than not, caucus members want to get in behind the leader. They want to know where the leader stands and then they want to cheer the leader on. That's who they likely recruited them into politics. It's who's keeping them into politics. It's who they believe in.
Shannon
15:29
And so I thought that was a good moment for him, that and his separatism comments. I was like, OK, this is pull up the nose territory for Pierre. And then, of course, he gets the floor crosser today, which is less
Shannon
15:41
less good for him. But I thought those were two good moments. And I think we underestimate the extent to which the leader going out and looking like they're solving a problem is good for caucus management and good for morale.
Zain
15:54
I'm going to get your assessment of this. Shannon alludes to a comment by Pierre yesterday where he says he, as in Giovanni, speaks for himself and I speak for the party. I want to get your analysis on that line and the strategy behind that line. Does that still work in a modern day caucus management approach? approach, that thesis, which might seem like, yeah, of course it does. But in other ways, we've seen caucuses managed very differently, which is they all shut the fuck up unless it is their lane that they're a critic on or a minister on, and I do all the other heavy lifting. So I'm curious about your take on this, right, on Polyev's approach. And then I have a strategy question around why not boot Giovanni at this point? Like, it's pretty fucking clear to many, including those inside the conservative caucus, is that this is part of a self-promotional brand building for Pierre's job. Why not boot the fucker? So those are my two questions for you. React to this approach and
Zain
16:48
and then talk to me about the lack of the other approach in terms of not pulling the trigger on Giovanni and getting him out of there.
Carter
16:54
I agree with Shannon. I thought that Pierre Pogliano's response was excellent. I thought that he did the right thing. He just did it too late.
Carter
17:01
It was days late as opposed to being right on top of it. I wish that he'd done
Carter
17:07
done it right away. And in terms of what this does in terms of, you know, should it be kicking out Giovanni from the caucus? I
Carter
17:15
I don't I mean, he got an 87 percent. I think he gets to do what he wants to do, but I don't think he wants to kick Jamil Giovanni out of caucus. The guy's a fundraising machine. He
Carter
17:24
He travels around. He appeals to a
Carter
17:26
a certain subset of the of the conservative caucus.
Carter
17:31
I are the conservative faithful, if you will. Um, I
Carter
17:35
I think that, uh, Pierre Pauliev would be courting, uh, all kinds of problems. Uh, and this would be one of those situations where you would be embracing your enemy and dragging them in closer to you as
Carter
17:45
as opposed to, uh, just throwing them out into the, into
Carter
17:47
into the cold. I'd probably give Jamil Javani some sort of a role that forces
Carter
17:51
forces him to travel across Canada into all the rural ridings for the next six months as my, uh, requirement and penance for him.
Zain
18:00
Game this out for me. Shannon, maybe I'll turn to you on this academic gamification of next steps for both of these gents, right? So Giovanni goes out, freelances, has these relationships, comes back, says something that doesn't speak for the caucus, to Carter's point, which I agree with, that
Zain
18:17
that Giovanni is a fundraising machine, maybe even has his own little wing
Zain
18:21
wing of the conservative party, that might be too much of a phrase, that he can speak to, but he's someone that's better kept inside and close. close. Let's say Polyev offers him a role, which I think is a smart strategic idea. What
Zain
18:33
What if Giovanni says no? How does Polyev then keep someone like this close? Because there's also a school of thought that Giovanni was offered a role and said no, because fuck it, if I'm in opposition, it's the Jamil Giovanni show going forward. And he knows exactly what Carter's put on the table in terms of his own prowess, potentially his relationships, his ambitions, and they're best kept inside the conservative tent rather than the outside. side game this out for the two gents polyev offers a role giovanni says thanks but no thanks
Shannon
19:03
him a role in the first place i
Shannon
19:05
him twist in the wind
Shannon
19:07
no because otherwise what are you saying to the rest of the caucus that you can step out and go say whatever batshit crazery you want uh
Shannon
19:14
uh and do whatever you want like there's more like if we think that that we didn't like hissy fit there's more maga in that caucus uh to be you
Zain
19:23
wouldn't add any guardrails on Jamil Jivani like even as in the in the guise of a promotion right now to be like here you get
Shannon
19:29
get this new game look this this freelancing to you know a far-right outlet telling Canadians that they shouldn't feel what they they do feel uh is unhelpful uh electorally to everyone uh so you know you're going to continue to do your job do do whatever you're going to do I mean he knows he's going to be building lists and whatever but I wouldn't be rewarding him with with anything thing uh and i wouldn't be giving him more opportunities to build lists if anything if you're going to give him a job making the fucking opposition house leader so tie him up in parliament right like like stupid stuff um like that that's the ultimate revenge is to tie him down on on the hill uh
Shannon
20:10
uh i wouldn't send him out on on with an ability to you know make more mess for him and
Shannon
20:17
and And I certainly wouldn't kick him out.
Shannon
20:20
I wouldn't hug him to death, but I certainly would not, you know, put him on an ice floe. The biggest single challenge for
Shannon
20:27
for this party in,
Shannon
20:29
in, you know, basically the post-Malrooney era is keeping it together.
Shannon
20:33
So and they all understand that, or at least the operators do internally.
Shannon
20:36
And so they have to keep this new sort of, you know, Chamber of Commerce slash MAGA coalition together. So booting him would be the worst case scenario. scenario, and
Shannon
20:48
you don't want to give him more opportunities to undermine the leadership, which clearly he's doing. He's clearly building lists. He's clearly out there doing his little campus tours and everything else. I would nail down his coattails a little bit, but otherwise not do anything special.
Zain
21:03
Respond to that. I think all of us agree that he's undermining Polyev's leadership. So you're going with the carrot approach. Shannon simply is going with with the stick approach.
Carter
21:14
It's not that big a stick. Shannon's not bringing a big stick to the table. She's just saying, you know, I'm not going to give you a carrot.
SPEAKER_01
21:22
I would give him something. I
Zain
21:23
I guess my only input here is that Giovanni's not going to change. I don't think he's got any intention of changing. He's not a dumb person. I think he knows what he's doing here.
Zain
21:30
I don't think he knows he's undermining the leadership. He knows he's big footing his leader and
Zain
21:35
and he knows he's not on message when doing all of those two things. things.
Carter
21:40
Yeah. But the role
Carter
21:42
role that I'm trying to give him or the role that I would be giving him would be an absolutely horrible role.
SPEAKER_01
21:48
What if he says no?
Zain
21:48
What if he says, we're in a really interesting era of politics where people are like, fuck you. It's not like you're asking him to do it publicly.
Carter
21:55
he says no, you just leave him on the ice floe like Shannon did.
Zain
21:59
more of that means that, what, he leverages his contacts in the US and other places and continues these interviews? That clearly he's
Carter
22:05
he's able to do this. There are caucus members that will bring this guy in to do a speech and to do whatever.
Carter
22:10
And those caucus members are going to continue to bring this guy in to do a speech or whatever.
Carter
22:15
Right. The only thing that you could do, and even then you're going to wind up absolutely screwing yourself, is to say to caucus, no, we're
Carter
22:24
we're not doing this. You can't bring Jamil
Carter
22:28
Jamil Javani in to do fundraising for you. And
Carter
22:31
And there's no way that Pierre Polyev is going to do that.
Zain
22:37
I propose booting out of caucus. I don't agree with it, but I'm just trying to the larger point I'm trying to make is when you have someone who's going rogue, this
Zain
22:45
this guy's clearly going rogue.
Zain
22:48
What options do you have if they don't want to not go rogue? If they want to continue going rogue, as he seems to be wanting to do,
Zain
22:58
are we not? Is Polyam not just delaying the inevitable, despite all these remedies, carrot, stick, fundraising, speech? And
Zain
23:07
maybe I'm predicting where this movie goes, and maybe I could be wrong, that Jamil Javani is the type of guy that could be reined in. I just think very
Zain
23:14
very little of his history suggests that, that he wants to be his own thing.
Zain
23:19
we're just seeing another version of that play
Carter
23:24
Pierre Polyam had to draw the circle with Jamil Javani outside of it,
Carter
23:27
right? Right. But the next time he goes rogue, maybe he just draws the circle around and says, oh, that was acceptable.
Carter
23:33
You know, it really depends on how people are responding and reacting to the moment. Right. And into what's happening.
Carter
23:40
I think, frankly, Jamil
Carter
23:42
Jamil Javani is is not a problem to Pierre Polyev's leadership. leadership the
Carter
23:48
the way that peter polyev's leadership is you know his problem right now continue is and continues to be his um he's
Carter
23:56
he's up against the juggernaut and mark carney that's
SPEAKER_01
24:00
that's his biggest problem yeah
Shannon
24:02
and letting the air out of the balloon a little bit with giovanni you know sort of wandering the hills saying whatever he wants it's not the end of the world it does actually you know speak to some people within their base he's got to keep that party together And
Shannon
24:15
And like I said, like, there's plenty of things that the leader can do. Like, he can put him on every possible committee so that he's bogged down and he has to show up for the Agriculture Committee's study of, you know, chicken
Shannon
24:26
chicken processing plants. Like, he
Shannon
24:29
he can ask him to do work that is not fun, that
Shannon
24:34
that would widely be understood as, you know, kind of a punishment for a guy who comes from an urban riding.
Shannon
24:42
mean i i would i i would let him say what he wants to say uh
Shannon
24:47
uh and and actually say to him you know like there will be times when i just distance myself from you and everybody's going to know why and
Shannon
24:54
in the meantime he doesn't get you know good critic opportunities you know as silly as we think it might be for people to be obsessed with question period a lot of mps are actually obsessed with question periods he doesn't get questions he
Shannon
25:08
he doesn't get you know to ask questions at committee doesn't get to give the you know to attend the big fundraising events or get a speaking role like he just gets kind of shunted to the side and the other thing that you do is you elevate people who are playing the game with you so
Shannon
25:25
so this is something that that probably ever has been really bad at is is is fleshing out the team around him it's always been me me me but
Shannon
25:32
but what he could do and what he should have been doing for some time, I think, is elevating the, you know, if he can find some talented people in there, he should elevate them, you know, beyond Melissa Lansman yelling at David Cochran on TV, right? He should be finding those people. And that's also a
Shannon
25:51
a direct message to Giovanni, you know, you didn't play ball, so you don't get to sit with the cool kids partner
Zain
25:59
partner i don't want to leave this next theory unexplored so i'm going to ask it to you even though i'm not sure i believe it could
Zain
26:05
could this all be orchestrated could
Zain
26:08
could could could could this letting this air out of the balloon almost like gilbo after he resigned was allowed to say whatever the fuck he wanted about climate and this government's lack of action on it right like you could kind of go on tv do a bunch of interviews being like that's fucking weird for gilbo to do that. And then you kind of learned, or at least was insinuated that maybe this was a scripted, you know, let him be him. Is this guy rogue and an asset so that this could have all been a bit scripted, including the line, he speaks for himself, I speak for me, I speak for the party?
Zain
26:40
Yes or no? Why do you think?
Carter
26:42
No, because I don't think that it offers any benefit in terms of member relations, nor does it offer any benefit in terms of fundraising.
Carter
26:49
You know, there was a reason why, you
Carter
26:52
you know, there's a group of people within the Liberal Party who want to see more action on the climate, you know, so there's a reason for that.
Carter
27:01
Sure, there's a group of conservatives in Alberta who want to separate and maybe join the United States, but I don't see it as being a major, major opportunity. By the way, all three Canadians have qualified for the men's 500 short track semifinals. Just an update for those who are paying attention.
Zain
27:20
attention. I'd love to correspond with Stephen Carter, yes.
Carter
27:22
But, you know, I don't see there's any way that this could be orchestrated. I think Jamil Javani is an ass, and I think that Pierre Palliev is dealing with an ass.
Zain
27:32
Shannon, I don't agree with it, but I don't want to leave it unexplored. Could this be orchestrated?
Shannon
27:39
No, almost nothing in politics is orchestrated in the way that sometimes I see the chattering classes or people who watch politics think, think oh is this just a distraction or are they orchestrating this in order to do that it's it no
Carter
27:52
is generally speaking nobody's
Shannon
27:55
smart or that good and there's too
Shannon
27:57
too many uh different variables right to uh to be able to plan that far ahead now there was an unexpected side benefit in my view
Shannon
28:07
to pierre paulieva telling canadians where he's at and where his red lines are uh
Zain
28:11
uh the federalist caucus side which i thought was
SPEAKER_02
28:13
was i agree i think was the
Shannon
28:13
the federalist stuff but also Also, the, you know, shut up, Jamil Javani, you don't speak for the party. I think that's great.
Shannon
28:19
Canadians have been wondering for like literally over a year and been looking for some straight language on the question of Trump. And they got, you know, something approaching it through this.
Shannon
28:30
And so that's fine. But no, it's not orchestrated. What is orchestrated is it took them a day or two to think about how are they going to deal with this. And now they've landed on their strategy. And so now they'll play that through. right
Shannon
28:44
right that is that's the that's the the extent to the orchestration how are we going to think you know how are we going to deal with a problem like giovanni uh
Shannon
28:51
uh and so they probably thought through you
Shannon
28:54
you know uh whatever he says is fine uh through to throw him out of caucus uh
Shannon
28:59
uh and they landed on uh
Shannon
29:01
uh i speak for the party which
Shannon
29:02
which i you know jason kenney had to do it a couple of times if memory serves uh you know like kind of go out there with uh l'état c'est moi uh kind of a uh a framing other parties have to do this periodically it's it's not the end of the world
Zain
29:17
can i move on to alberta for a bit we're we're getting notice of the premier's televised address and we're getting some weird telegraphed
Zain
29:28
telegraphed immigration preview from rob anderson and bruce mcallister uh so someone i hate to just read tweets but this is kind of insane so So David Coletto, the infamous, well-known nationwide pollster, puts out, to see our population growth in comparative perspective like this is something else, and effectively lists Austria, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden. Keep those countries in mind. I read them on purpose. It shows their population change from 2000 to 2024. Highest is Austria at 14%. Sure, Sweden at 19, Austria at 14, and then it has Canada at the bottom with
Zain
30:14
with a 34.5% population increase. And with the Premier's
Zain
30:18
Premier's chief of staff saying, watch the TV address for Premier A.B. Daniel Smith tomorrow to Albertans, this absolute insanity needs to stop. It will.
Zain
30:31
Shannon, I'll let you take over in a second. And there's been many tweets, including from your esteemed
Zain
30:37
Mr. Meredith, who suggested that this is largely the population trajectory we have been on for a long time.
Zain
30:44
It is in line with our overall philosophy in terms of what we believed in growth. It's really not different from 2000
Zain
30:52
2000 to 2024. But my question for both of you is
Zain
30:57
is simply what the fuck?
Shannon
31:01
this is uh what they've been telegraphing for some time uh they've been saying that they're going to find a way to limit alberta services to alberta residents and even parse between permanent residents and
Shannon
31:17
and citizens so the citizenship marker on our driver's licenses and some way to essentially go back to the feds and say we have too many permanent residents were funding services for so you have to fund them or some very
Shannon
31:30
very some kind of a variation on that this is a way for them to talk about immigration without uh sounding like just absolute you know nativist assholes um this is a way for them to essentially like it's between a dog whistle and a foghorn uh
Shannon
31:51
uh to certain people that believe that immigration has gotten under control as you notice It
Shannon
31:55
It is not consistent with the fact pattern. Between 1976 and 2001, our population increased by 30%. And
Shannon
32:04
And I bet you that if you went between, you know, essentially the post-World War I period and into World War II, you would find a similar rate of increase because that was actually the largest rate of increase in our country's history was in the interwar period, essentially. The difference being, of course, that in those periods, a
Shannon
32:28
lot of the people were white that came at that point, and they are not white now. And so that's the difference. And that's why everybody, you know, the hair is on fire at MacDougall House at MacDougall Centre in Calgary. uh
Shannon
32:45
uh it's it's also not consistent with the fact pattern um in other countries like ours that are not you know the postage stamp of slovakia uh but our countries like australia or the united states that are much more similar to our population increase but they've been signaling they're going to do this for some time uh
Shannon
33:04
uh what's interesting to me is that probably ever has backed off this immigration discourse remember right after the election i thought he was
SPEAKER_02
33:13
was going You're going to lead on it. I agree
Shannon
33:14
agree with you. Oh, he was hell bent, right? And he was on TFWs and all the things, like the sort of safe spaces. I thought he
Zain
33:19
he was going to make immigration the next inflation. Like, I really
Zain
33:23
he was going to engineer. Yeah, yeah. And
Shannon
33:24
And yet here we are. And he's banging on about crime and inflation, but he's completely backed off the immigration discourse and even the TFW discourse, which tells me that it's unpopular in the 905. But
Shannon
33:36
But it's very clear to me that in Alberta, it's one of the ways to keep that, you know, 40% or whatever it is of UC peers that are separatists that are really wanting that red meat for the base, keep them in the tent in
Shannon
33:48
in a way that it doesn't entirely turn off the rest of the accessible conservative voting universe over on the other side of the more sort of genteel, polite conservatives.
Zain
34:00
This sounds like a fucking foghorn. Let me read you part of McAllister's. Like, I get what Shannon's saying, but was
Zain
34:07
was it fueled by greed? Did they line their pockets? it's they being the the class that allowed these mass immigrants in while irrevocably sustaining our health trading our health care or does their contempt for canada's core values and traditions drive them to flood our borders with millions from societies not built on the same foundations that have made us thrive why import from nations with failed systems when our judeo-christian heritage and principles have worked so well here oh
Shannon
34:33
oh boy that's a full-on replacement theory anyway yeah like
Carter
34:38
shocked that bruce mcallister is a racist are we shocked that rob anderson's a racist are we shocked to see what they do right like
Zain
34:44
he's bringing races i just want to make sure mcallister's in the premier's office right yeah he's the he's the mcdougall
SPEAKER_00
34:49
mcdougall center director yeah
Carter
34:51
are we shocked by this are we surprised i kind of i kind of i kind of end with
Zain
34:57
with that man like i'm reading this is his real account i also wanted to make sure that i'm not um
Zain
35:04
it's still up there.
Carter
35:06
there. Racists. I don't know. It's OK to say it. Now, it turns out, though, keeping in mind, we're pointing back to this previous the previous era of growth and saying, oh, we were fine with immigration at that time. We weren't fine with it then either. Now, we weren't fine when the Italians came. We weren't fine when the Greeks came. We weren't fine when the Ukrainians came. The first wave, not the second wave. We
Carter
35:30
We haven't been fine with any of these waves of immigration because those of us who get here first say it's ours. And
Carter
35:37
And this is the pull the drawbridge up.
Carter
35:40
is the bullshit that is easy to do politics now what's
Carter
35:46
what's it going to mean for them in the long run right where are they losing seats where where do the ndp have the opportunity to pick up seats i'll tell you where this place super well south calgary south calgary is the whitest area you will ever find in your life and you don't want they are a little bit racist this
Carter
36:04
this is going to to play. This racism, this this bullshit racist theory is
Carter
36:12
is going to play in some of the areas that they need to win seats. And
Carter
36:16
And that, to me, is is the vile part of it. There is nothing that Bruce Anderson or Bruce McAllister and Rob Anderson and Danielle Smith won't do to further their their political agenda, including out and out racism and going in and appealing to the worst, the worst type of people in our country and in our province. This is exactly on brand for them. They are horrible, horrible people doing horrible fucking things.
Zain
36:46
I tell you, I'm not even going to try to plus, I will plus one that from a perspective of that rage.
Zain
36:54
But you know my fear, Shannon?
Zain
36:56
This also kind of works with immigrant populations that are already here, to Carter's earlier point, who've wanted to draw the drawbridge bridge up on those that, yeah, might be from where they are and might look like them and might sound like them, but it almost incentivizes immigration as a zero-sum game, that the less there are, the larger piece of the pie that I get. And we have seen the anti-immigrant rhetoric and perspectives and values do not stop at certain communities. They, in fact, are more deeper in communities that have been previously immigrants as well, and often not a long time ago, like relatively recently. So that's a bit of a diatribe for me, but my concern, I am shocked. That level of rhetoric, I have not seen
Zain
37:45
It's very Americanized. It's mega Republican, and even perhaps on the fringe of that, I would say.
Zain
37:51
Secondly, I agree with Carter's sort of electoral theory around this, but
Zain
37:57
but I also think it might be broader.
Zain
38:00
I'm curious to get your opinion on both and then maybe transition to what the hell does the NDP do here when
Zain
38:07
when this looks like a massive opportunity, but I also wonder if it's kind of a mirage in some way. Like, how do they think it through?
Shannon
38:15
Well, first of all, polling is notoriously shitty in areas like the northeast of Calgary, other areas where you have large, you know, more recently arrived immigrant populations, right? And as soon as you're getting down to the writing level, you're getting a massive margin of error. And, you know, focus groups are notoriously, you know, fairly incomplete when it comes to, you know, in different languages and so on. So I don't think we have the data as what I am saying, either on a qualitative or quantitative basis to to to to
Shannon
38:51
to co-sign your theory, Zane, at all. of drawbridge theory or the
SPEAKER_02
38:57
the fact that it's going to... Purely anecdotal,
Shannon
38:59
Exactly. And I also think we need to make a distinction here between some of the things that happen when you get here, that is to say settlement services, access to housing, so on, and the fact that, yeah, we did have a surge because the Trudeau government did fuck it up at the behest of the business community, and we did have some points in which there were real bottlenecks and
Shannon
39:23
and access to housing and other services. There is no question about that. That is objectively true. And as we move on from that, and if we, you know, as a matter of public policy, kind of meet those moments, how much of that concern will dissipate on, you know, from recently arrived Canadians as well as people who have been here longer. So that's the second point. The third point I would make is that this stuff from Macalester is
Shannon
39:52
way over the line and
Shannon
39:55
i do not believe that folks who are more of the drawbridge kind of mentality if this was put in front of them i don't think it's getting a head nod from
Shannon
40:07
you know people like my family who have been here for a few generations or anybody like this is it's absolutely over the line and so what strategically what you want to do is not You know, there is a hair on fire moment for McAllister and almost like that's where you use him as a wedge. Put that language in a motion before the House and make those motherfuckers defend it. Right. Like just stuff like I mean, maybe that's not the right thing. I'm just like brainstorming off the top of my head. There's got to be ways to wedge them and use it as a wedge back. The Tories are really good at using wedges on the New Democrats. So it's time to be clever and use those wedges back. So that's the first thing. But the other thing is this. Look, we can go around lighting our hair on fire, and I'm sure we will, talking to other white people about this and how outraged we are and signaling to, you know, and having like the sort of, you know, in the commentary, the sort of white people discourse around this. or yeah we can do that sure you know the new democrats can make themselves go feel really good doing that and it's probably a good thing to bring this to the attention of the base because the base needs to know what they're up against the base needs to be you know uh thinking like we really need to get rid of these people they are a real problem uh
Shannon
41:21
uh you know and that's going to force me to to give money volunteer my riding association uh you know maybe put myself forward as a candidate great but the other piece that needs to happen here and the new democrats need to get better I think the progressive left needs to do better at it, because
Shannon
41:37
because we need to go and talk to the people who are on the receiving end of Bruce McAllister's pointy stick and his eventual deportation rhetoric, because we know where this is going, people, right?
Shannon
41:46
right? Like, we have a playbook in the States. So go talk to the people who are going to feel scared and afraid and insecure and like they don't belong and say, we need to get rid of these people and do better and use this in that way. Just as the UCP in the last election used trans issues in the exact same way in those exact same seats.
Zain
42:10
I want to talk about this very quickly.
Zain
42:12
Give me the strategic tie in strong, weak or don't know yet. yet, okay? Strong Uyghur don't know yet between this and the separatism fight.
Zain
42:21
Strong and a gift to them? I mean, by the way, we don't know what she's going to say tomorrow.
Carter
42:29
know that immigration is going to go on the referendum because of the Alberta Next panel, right? That some of our quote-unquote friends put themselves on without
Carter
42:41
without understanding the political ramifications in the long term. This is the political ramifications in a long term racist
Carter
42:50
is put forward and i don't want to answer what the ndp should do they
Carter
42:52
they should have a video out tomorrow of
Carter
42:55
of the tweets from republicans that mirror the tweets from bruce mcallister put it up republican
Zain
43:03
or ucp would be like a nice remember the cory hogan game that he did yeah yeah
Carter
43:06
yeah right and and then and then show the pictures of ice in in in Minnesota. Minnesota is not that far away. Minnesota is right near us. This is tremendously dissatisfying to find ourselves in this situation.
Carter
43:24
I am extremely frustrated. Keep in mind, the leader of the opposition doesn't
Carter
43:32
doesn't fit into the Judeo-Christian fabric that Bruce McAllister is talking about. I would be pointing that out. This is insanity
Carter
43:40
insanity to me, absolute insanity, and
Carter
43:43
and it needs to be challenged.
Carter
43:49
be a part of the referendum that is going to happen, I think, this fall.
Carter
43:53
It will be one of the questions. Should Alberta be in charge of managing its own immigration structure? That's going to be a question.
Shannon
44:03
would also say there's a role for civil society here. There is a role for the Council of Ecumenical Churches for all others to be writing a letter to Daniel Smith to say, fire this guy. He's sitting there in McDougal Center with his thumb up his ass, tweeting all day for $300,000 a year or whatever he's getting paid. It's horseshit. He is a racist and he needs to go.
Shannon
44:26
Maybe the churches wouldn't put it in that way.
Zain
44:32
issue here as it relates to separatism though could this grease the wheels like significantly like depending if she says something yeah you think it's what
Zain
44:43
what clarity does that add to the premier's headspace though right like we we've been pretty the current line of attack is she's mealy-mouthed does
Zain
44:51
does tomorrow potentially define what corner of the argument she's in like this This may not. And what I'm trying to get to in such a long winded way is maybe tomorrow's the revelation around Danielle Smith's stance on separatism as much as it is her stance on immigration. And that's the that's the baton to run with.
Shannon
45:10
I don't think so. I think she's going to go with strong Alberta, United Canada, tra la la. And other than that, it's going to be a business as usual budget. No, I don't. I don't think she's going to say
Zain
45:19
say I'm pro separation. But like this, this to me could highlight exactly where she is. Carter, you were also nodding against my vibe there. So finish us off.
Carter
45:29
that she's going to I think that she could go as far as saying we're going to have a referendum this fall. We're going to have a referendum, not just on separation, but on the the Alberta
Carter
45:39
Alberta next panel recommendations, everything from policing to
Carter
45:44
And she's going to talk about all of those things that she wants to put in front of the Alberta public. And
Carter
45:50
fact that we're going to have a separation question on it is
Carter
45:55
inconsequential because she knows that that one will fail. But the other ones, the other ones, including this immigration one, may
Carter
46:01
may maybe that's going to actually happen. it
Zain
46:04
yep the over under and lightning round you know what i'll start next episode with it by which i mean i probably won't we're gonna leave it there that's a wrap on episode 4012 the naval oranges episode steven carter of the strategist my name is zane belcher with me as always shannon phillips steven carter and we shall see you all next time