Episode 1894: Galaxy Brain Strategy

Zain 0:02

This is the Strategist episode 1894. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Shannon Phillips, Stephen Carter.

Carter 0:10

Well, you know, I'm still recovering from the live episode, you know, the beat

Carter 0:15

beat down, the structured attack by my co-host, but I got through it. You

Shannon 0:21

You know, I got through it.

Carter 0:22

Shannon was just apologizing. You should too.

Zain 0:25

You know who I think was harshest on you? I didn't know such a thing. can i assess this now that the episode is out uh cory cory

Carter 0:35

cory was mostly savage

Carter 0:37

savage with his his uh facial expressions it's

Zain 0:41

true you needed the video and too oh too bad there's excellent 4k video yeah so available yeah

Zain 0:47

uh cory also with his words uh can i quote can i quote uh your and your actions and your words live on separate Oh,

Carter 0:55

yeah. That was fun.

Shannon 0:58

The operation was a success. It's too bad the patient died.

Carter 1:03

Sometimes that happens. Do

Zain 1:05

Do you feel like it was catharsis for you, Carter? I don't

Carter 1:08

don't think it was cathartic. I think that this was one of the harder ones to have done. This was

Carter 1:13

was a harder accountability episode. But

Zain 1:16

But we have to tell the listeners that you're the one who kind of put all of this in motion. Oh,

Carter 1:20

Oh, no, no. It's all my fault. I'm

Zain 1:22

I'm not blaming anyone. I'm not even talking about the Calgary part. I'm talking about the episode that we

Carter 1:26

we recorded. Yeah, the live episode. I think you said we should do a live episode. I did. And I was like, I'm looking for a project.

Carter 1:33

You were looking for a project.

Carter 1:36

So we did it.

Carter 1:37

We did it. There wasn't much thought put into it, though. The thought was not there.

Shannon 1:44

like there was thought, but the theme was themes. I will tell

Carter 1:49

feel like we found mishmash. It would have been totally different if we'd gotten the choir. choir the choir turning me down that started the the the race to downhill so

Zain 1:57

so yeah i feel like the organist was good though the

Carter 2:01

the organist was good given that she couldn't hear a word we were saying yes she just basically assumed that every third sentence had a fuck in it she should

Zain 2:08

she should just jumped in with it it's pretty good um or

Zain 2:12

or at least the second part of that episode uh only feedback i'm getting two pieces of feedback number one people love shannon carter which is uh which

Zain 2:18

which is really a blow to our egos number two not long enough no

Carter 2:22

no no one said that a

Zain 2:24

lot of people said it was long enough lots

Carter 2:25

lots of people have said the first not a lot of people have said the second not long enough is not something that people have been saying now they haven't seen part two we haven't released part two yet that's part of the it's long it'll

Carter 2:36

it'll be a uh public it'll be a public episode again that's

Zain 2:39

that's true we'll have we'll have special guests on the part two um shannon any reflections from the live show before we jump it up i've got a lot lot of things to talk about if we want to uh carter's given us a tight 45 so i'll try to cram as much as i can but any reflections on the live show before i i

Zain 2:53

i jump uh to something else well

Shannon 2:55

well i'm always astonished at how many people are actually listening to this podcast uh and i got to meet some of the listeners which uh you know i liked them more than i thought i would i really did uh and uh so that was nice and farkas was good but he was too guarded uh but he has to it be so i have mad respect for him for staying on message um but it's uh less fun when they do but you know uh we have to respect uh the game and the game is not to uh say anything that's gonna get you in trouble when your chief of staff is sitting in the front row yeah it's

Zain 3:31

it's true um we have not released the farkas part yet but people can hear him as one of our special guests on the The part two of the live show, Stephen Carter, the Liberal government stands

Carter 3:50

I think so. I think that there was all kinds of signaling that it wasn't going to fall. You know, like I think that the Liberals appeared pretty confident in the last couple of days. And, you know, the Conservatives did what they needed to do to make sure that it didn't fall. and the NDP did what they needed to do to make sure that it didn't fall. So I think everybody wants this government to continue and Pierre Polyev's, what did Corey say? His words and his actions are on two different continents. He

Zain 4:20

He said that about you. Yeah, he said that about you, just so you're clear. Well,

Carter 4:23

Well, I'm just, I'm applying it now to Pierre Polyev.

Zain 4:24

Polyev. Oh, you're applying it. Oh, I see. Okay, okay, yeah, yeah. Well, that's good. That's good. It's called paying it forward. Yeah, that's exactly what

Carter 4:30

what it is. I

Zain 4:31

I appreciate it. Shannon, this is, the outcome of this is not a surprise. There was a bit of, I don't want to say high drama, but mild drama leading into this. But I'm curious to just get your take on the outcome before we kind of try to pick up some other pieces that might be interesting.

Shannon 4:44

Oh, I think that anybody who expected drama was a very stupid person and was just, you know, wanting to drum up interest in Canadian politics at a time when sometimes it wanes and talk about something besides the budget. It was never going to be that

Shannon 5:00

that we were going into

Shannon 5:01

into an election. And the way you knew that was the way that Mark Carney comported himself. He,

Shannon 5:06

He, from the very beginning, essentially said to the House of Commons, no, I don't have a parliamentary strategy to pass this budget. Like it or go to an election.

Shannon 5:15

And that was his, you know, the way he conducted himself, his whole House strategy from the very beginning. and it was never going to be the case that this budget was going to have major amendments made to it or if there was going to be horse trading.

Shannon 5:30

trading. The government never really opened the door to that. He had some performative meetings with Polievre and with

Shannon 5:39

with Don Davies and others, even Elizabeth May, but he was never going to be making changes to this budget. This is not he is not basically

Shannon 5:53

acting like he has a minority at all. He's acting like he has a de facto majority. And for now, that's probably the smart thing to do. If anything, he wrote this budget so that he would get more floor crossers from the Conservatives so

Shannon 6:10

so that they could find some palatable things in it, which means that that will probably get them through the Budget Implementation Act votes that have to happen in the spring as well.

Zain 6:21

Carter, I agree with Shannon in the sense that anyone expecting the government to fall was definitely drumming something up that was not there. However, the other sources of drama also didn't manifest. And I'm not saying you said this would happen, but you did say on a previous episode that a way for a conservative to leave would be on the budget vote. We didn't see that. And I'm not saying you predicted it, to be clear again.

Zain 6:45

Does this kind of, does this, the lack of that not happening and the Conservatives getting through this budget, which is a funny way to say it because it's the Liberals who kind of get to celebrate their budget. But the Conservatives getting through this moment, is that a bit of a strategic victory for Polyev here? Is that one of the hurdles crossed as we revisit some of the work that we did in the previous episode talking about Polyev's three acts and what he needs to do?

Carter 7:08

Yeah, I mean, I think this was a theatrical opportunity, not necessarily, you know, there would be some strategy behind the theater, later but not necessarily the the best time I think that the PR Polyev has weathered the storm of crossers I think that the the they're not going to move now not now that you voted against the budget you're not going to move over to the governing party with the budget unless something changes but I think that something could change in the next four to six months I think that something could happen later in the in in the new year but I don't think that anything's going to to happen in

Carter 7:44

in the rest of this year. And I don't think it needs to. I think that Mark Carney's, to Shannon's point, going to operate as though he has a majority. He doesn't necessarily need to have a whole bunch of floor crossers when the NDP knows that if they fall at this, if they go to an election at this stage, I mean, how can it get worse? Well, let's find out, right? So, So I think that there's a reality that says that this isn't going to go to an election. This government's not going to an election until such time as Mark Carney wants it to go to an election. Because in the near term, it doesn't benefit the conservatives and it doesn't benefit the NDP.

Zain 8:25

Shannon, does this help Pierre Polyev that he's done through today and no additional floor crossers or folks leaving his caucus? Is that a bit of a W he can cash in or would you say not so much?

Shannon 8:37

Well, I don't think it's any time a W when, you know, somebody doesn't leave your caucus. The assumption is when you form a caucus after an election, that

Shannon 8:47

everybody's there for the long haul. You know, he had a really bad time with General Rendon Samoan leaving. And, you know, by all accounts, there were more. It's not a W for him. uh and but what he needs to do is keep himself out of any bad headlines like the uh you know the threatening to or wanting to fantasizing

Shannon 9:10

fantasizing i guess about locking up his jailing his opponents uh

Shannon 9:14

uh and you know calling into question the uh

Shannon 9:18

uh neutrality and competence of the rcmp uh

Shannon 9:21

uh he needs to not do any of that he needs not to you know basically uh not indulge the ostriches put it that way. The ostrich caucus needs to be nice and quiet. And he'll just, you know, come out, throw some red meat to the base every once in a while between now and January, and he's good.

Shannon 9:38

There's going to be more budget votes in the spring, and there'll be more confidence motions in the spring. And there's going to be some off-cycle funding as well, right? We know this because the government has said, well, for example, we're going to do a nature strategy between now and then, because that was left out of the budget. There's some other stuff that we we know is probably coming that might uh

Shannon 9:59

uh maybe focus the mind on new democrats or might focus the mind for elizabeth may or alternatively uh uh depending if they do you know little goodies in people's writings or something it might help a conservative or two but

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