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Zain: is The Strategist, episode 1888. My name is Zane Belgin. With me, she's back, Annalise Klingbeil. How are you? I'm
Annalise: I'm good, Zane. I'm so good. How are you? Good.
Zain: Good. I am excited to talk about municipal politics. i in our city in our home city yesterday i talked to chris henderson who gave me all the insight around edmonton i mentioned that of course we are a national podcast but we've got a lot of listeners in alberta and we've got a lot of people in the two major cities of this province you're all you're all
Annalise: you're all you're all caught up on edmonton now i
Zain: fucking think so what
Annalise: what do you learn actually who's gonna win in edmonton's name so i think henderson henderson's
Zain: so i think henderson henderson's saying this he's he's hedging bets he thinks it's close right now but there could be a breakout uh for one of the candidates and And he says smart money is on NAC.
Zain: Interesting. He also adds that if Cartmel loses, it is considered the biggest political failure in Edmonton history. Not because Cartmel had like a 30-point lead, but because the guy is going to spend more than a million bucks. Yeah, he's got a lot of money.
Annalise: Cartmel
Annalise: Yeah, he's got a lot of money. That's going to be a fun accountability episode with your
Zain: going to be a fun
Zain: your pal Stephen Carter.
Annalise: pal Stephen Carter. With
Zain: With our pal Stephen Carter. Our pal Stephen Carter. Yeah, let's give him a broader hug rather than an error one. I think he needs it. Yeah.
Annalise: Carter. Our pal Stephen Carter. Yeah,
Annalise: than an error one.
Zain: I think you might need it in both major cities, depending on how this episode goes. It's
Annalise: cities, depending
Annalise: how
Annalise: this
Annalise: going to be good accountability. On that front, have
Zain: have we not had a mayoral election in Calgary run by one Stephen Carter where someone has spent a million dollars and lost badly? I did bring this up yesterday because it did cross my mind, but didn't Alnur Kassam pretty much mean a million bucks and an L? And
SPEAKER_04: lost badly?
Annalise: bucks and an L? And he lost very badly. Yes. That's like Calgary lore. Yeah, no, a million dollars. I think he paid Carter a lot of that, and he lost very poorly. Could
Zain: That's like Calgary
Annalise: Could
Zain: Could Carter repeat? Could Carter do the ultimate repeat? The Edmonton
Annalise: The Edmonton version? $2
Zain: $2 million losses. Oh, I feel bad for Carter. But, you know, he signed up for this. He's the one who's told us he's running. Carter has
Annalise: million losses.
Annalise: I feel bad
Annalise: us he's running. Carter has dug.
Annalise: Carter's brought this onto himself, right? He's running a lot of people in a lot of places, and we'll see where the dust settles on Monday.
Zain: Fuck. Tuesday, actually,
Annalise: Tuesday, actually, Zane, because we will not have results on Monday.
Zain: Oh, yes. And I should plug a couple of things. A, at least Cling Beal, as everyone knows, champion communications, you know, a member of this podcast. Also, a longtime political observer in the city, probably one of the best minds in the municipal arena in this city, I would say. But also, I would mention, when you mentioned Monday heading into Tuesday, you're going to be on Global on Monday night. I am. So people should watch you. Yes. I'm
SPEAKER_02: city, I would say.
Annalise: say.
Annalise: night. I am. So people should watch you. Yes. I'm commenting on Global, which will be different for me. Normally, I ask the questions. questions um and it should be fun because there will be no results so this is interesting i got a lot to talk about i
Zain: commenting on
Zain: so this
Corey: this
Zain: this
Zain: interesting i got a lot to talk
Zain: i got asked to do city tv and i was going to but i have to head to montreal they were going to do like a 6 p.m hit for and i hope i'm not revealing their plans but like they were going to do hits in between is global just doing a show like are you guys just sitting in a studio for six hours
Annalise: got
Annalise: have to head to montreal
SPEAKER_04: montreal
Annalise: to do hits in
Annalise: between is
Annalise: you guys just sitting in a studio for six hours we're doing a rehearsal today zane so i should have more details um but But my understanding is that it will be online.
Zain: have more details um
SPEAKER_00: um
Zain: um
Annalise: Online. It'll be like popping into the five, six, and then it'll be streaming. And then I don't think. The
SPEAKER_00: It'll be like popping
Zain: popping into
SPEAKER_00: into the
Zain: I don't think. The streaming will be like you guys said, like a show, like an actual election show that I can watch. I
Annalise: actual election show that I can watch. I think. Don't quote me on that because there's a rehearsal. I did bump into someone at CBC yesterday at a debate and asked what they're doing. And they're doing like an hour, but it's province-wide. Because
Zain: Don't quote
SPEAKER_04: quote me on that
SPEAKER_00: doing like
Annalise: Because I'm like, how are you going to fill this hour? There's going to be no results. Theirs is all across the province because they have all these bureau people. and
Annalise: it'll be an hour on radio and then i think tv and online again don't quote me on that but um
Annalise: um yeah and i'm not sure what ctv is doing i do know normally champion where i work yeah um previously the last election we had like a big election watch party you
Zain: yeah um
Zain: you guys did yeah we did
Annalise: yeah we did at um down at national and there was like some people were disappointed in the quality of the the of the traditional media because
Annalise: because it's not like i don't know 2000 when you would sit and they would do like a live tv special that's just not happening right and this is a lane for
Zain: happening right and this is a lane for us we should have done a live podcast with steven carter and you or you maybe i won't be here on the pod on the pod right now annalise retract your global agreement
Annalise: maybe i won't be here on the
Annalise: the pod
Annalise: that's what carter needs uh that like just live live carter when everything he has poured his heart and soul into for months yeah
SPEAKER_00: that
Zain: that like
SPEAKER_00: like just
SPEAKER_00: and soul into for months yeah
Annalise: yeah that i'm not gonna say it's gonna melt you should charge big money for people to watch that thing and that would be okay yeah
SPEAKER_00: that i'm not gonna say it's gonna melt
Zain: melt you should charge big
Zain: thing and that
Zain: be okay yeah fuck i don't even know where to start i didn't even know where to start yesterday because both elections in calgary and edmonton seem to have a similar drumbeat but let me start with this observation and then maybe Maybe we'll take it from there. And you tell me if you agree and if you disagree, great. If you agree, great. The
SPEAKER_00: And you tell me if
Zain: left doesn't know what to do in this election.
Annalise: Yeah, I would agree with that.
Zain: Can we start there? And maybe, I don't know if that's a great place to start. We can start there. Okay,
Annalise: start there. Okay, I think this election, like, so people have been talking about how this election is boring. Or maybe just start with 3-1 because
Zain: election is boring. Or maybe just start with 3-1 because I don't know. No, because it relates.
Annalise: I don't know. No, because it relates. People have been talking, and jump in, Zane, because you know Calgary.
Zain: Calgary.
Annalise: People have been talking about how this election is boring, right? They're talking about, like, this is a Seinfeld election. It's the election about nothing. thing they're talking yes someone has dubbed it um the
SPEAKER_03: yes someone
Annalise: the election like meh election i do not like that term um
SPEAKER_03: do not like that
SPEAKER_04: that term
Annalise: um people are talking about how it's boring and i think it is boring like what's the ballot box question we're three days out what's the ballot box question what's the big idea what's the talker and i think also what's making it boring is like we know the players right one of them has has been mayor two
SPEAKER_00: we're three days
Annalise: two of them ran last time one
Annalise: of them has been a city councillor and then you insert brian teason into the mix um but he had it's been like i would say the past couple weeks that people are maybe paying a little bit more attention to brian teason but
Annalise: but there's no like i don't know where you tell me like what's what's the ballot box question we're three days out i was at the cbc debate yesterday with some people and it ended and i turned to everyone around me I'm like, what's the ballot box question?
SPEAKER_00: turned to everyone
Annalise: No one knows, and everyone has a different idea. Someone's like, it's what Davison's saying. It's all about affordability. And someone else is like, no, it's about safety. Like, there's no, why,
Annalise: why, how are we getting people motivated and getting them out to vote?
Zain: It is interesting. So let me run through the candidates for those that may not be exactly tuned in, which, by the way, if you read the polling, it's most fucking people. Yeah, it's a lot of people. I'm not even just saying most people who listen to this podcast because there's a lot from out of this province who are now going to be tuned into our municipal scene. But I'm saying most people in our city have no fucking clue what's going on. So you got Gondek, who's the current mayor, right? You got Farkas, who came in second last time as the conservative choice. This is a former counselor who's now running as a, let's put a pin on this, but a progressive white. We can get
Corey: Yeah, it's a lot of people. I'm not even just saying most people who
SPEAKER_02: Gondek, who's the current
Annalise: white. We can get into that. He's put himself in a box. We will get into that.
Zain: He's put himself in
Zain: Yeah. Speaking of someone else, you know, putting herself in a box and perhaps one that she wants to be in. Sonia Sharpe, communities first, running under a banner. not shying away from her conservative roots and the direction she wants to go. You mentioned Brian Thiessen. This is the Calgary party. This is Carter's party. Brian, a well-respected labor lawyer or employment lawyer, I should say, in the Calgary space, former police commission chair. And then Jeff Davison. Running as an independent, former Ward 6 counselor, ran for mayor last time, as you alluded to, and, of course, is also leading a little bit more conservative in that regard. guard you've got other folks running but that's the that's the batch is it not yeah yeah
SPEAKER_00: Calgary party.
Corey: in
Annalise: yeah no that's a batch and davison independent but abc which is a party that hasn't really made waves has endorsed him and
SPEAKER_03: really made
Annalise: and i think it's worth it's worth noting too like in terms of the calgary history davison
SPEAKER_03: and i think it's
Annalise: davison farkas and gondek know each other extremely well like not only did they run against each other four years ago they all started on council at the same time so the 2017 election which i know well you know well right you were you're running nenshi's i was covering city hall at the time four
SPEAKER_00: only did they run
SPEAKER_00: were you're
Zain: was covering city
Zain: four
Annalise: four new
Annalise: new counselors at the 2017 election so that nenshi won beat bill smith four new counselors those counselors were george chahal jody gondek jeff davison and jeremy farkas right i forgot
Zain: i forgot i honestly think it's
Annalise: honestly think it's so it's funny how much has changed in eight years because i remember that day after the election doing the story of here are the four new people how there was a front front page picture of the four of them like fists in the middle look at us and then like just
SPEAKER_00: it's
Annalise: just funny where they all ended up after that Chahal obviously an MP and then the three all decided they wanted to run for mayor ran against each other last time and I feel like last time there wasn't that much excitement like there was it was a different election it was 2021 it was COVID it was different but you have these three people who no one was like I
Annalise: I don't think like exceedingly excited about last time, all running against each other again with two other faces in the mix.
Zain: Okay, so I regret starting with the left doesn't know what to do. But I do want to come back to that question, because I think you've actually hit on the more interesting one for me, which is
Zain: why and how is this different from last time? Because, you know, you've got Thiessen in the mix, and you now got Sharp in the mix. Okay,
Zain: three folks who did it before one who's reinvented or reimagined themselves one who's running as an incumbent with baggage but what's really different here from 2021 when you've seen some of the same faces in the same names i
SPEAKER_02: one
SPEAKER_02: who's
Annalise: think like people are different right and like i maybe i'm biased here because i've had two kids in the past four years but like the idea it just seems like four years ago was like a simpler time was it not like in terms of the media environment in terms of the social media environment in terms of like politics in the states like i don't know it just seems it seems simpler people are on this big like in terms of no one's interested they're like there's just so much going on and
Zain: right and
Annalise: and there is right and maybe i'm like rose-colored glasses looking at 2021 i think 2021 was like
Annalise: like a lot of that campaign they everything was online right they weren't doing debates in person um when we did our election watch party which would have been october whatever middle of october 2021 it was one one of the first times that it was like, Oh, we've, we have a lot of people in a room together watching something. And then two months later, it was that new variant of COVID and everyone
SPEAKER_00: together watching
SPEAKER_00: watching something.
SPEAKER_00: then two
Zain: COVID and everyone
Annalise: everyone else was, was like back in their houses again. Right. So I just, I think, I just think it was a different time in 2021 and people have like, I
Annalise: don't know, changed a lot. Their capacity is different, but it's, it's kind of like a repeat. And then I would say in 2021, there was, there
SPEAKER_04: kind of like a
Annalise: there was more like what's what's the big idea no none of the candidates have come out with like i
Annalise: don't they haven't there's no there's no big idea there's no talker i would say maybe and it came up yesterday in the debate sonia sharp's 500 police officers and the police endorsement is like that's a talker but
Annalise: but it can't happen like you can't bring 500 new police officers in four years without it having a massive you know impact on on city budget so i don't in
Annalise: in so is you know it was her was her thought there let's like really frame it around public safety and it's i don't think the ballot box question is do you feel less safe than you did four years ago and you can also look at crime stats um that they counter that so i don't know i think and you can talk about 2017 i feel like my recollection of that and it was a while ago was like taxes was a big thing arena was a big thing it was also voter
Zain: it's i don't
Zain: also
Corey: also voter
Zain: voter
Corey: voter
Annalise: voter turnout voter turnout was huge and you can probably talk about this more but that was like the
Zain: voter
Zain: this more but
Zain: but that
Zain: that was like the 200 000 um vote mark which by the way if we just look at some of the raw math here the the winner on monday night slash
Zain: slash tuesday morning yeah might be someone who squeaks by with 90 yeah
Corey: slash tuesday
Annalise: tuesday morning yeah might
Annalise: yeah i was gonna say nowhere near that 200 and the bill 90
Zain: gonna say nowhere
Zain: bill 90 to 120 might be just just to understand in a city of 1.4 ish million i don't know aren't
Annalise: just to understand
Annalise: 1.4 ish
Annalise: don't know aren't we more than 1.4 now maybe yeah
Zain: now maybe yeah 1.4 ish million probably just under a sub-million electors um 120 000 is what it's going to take to become mayor of the city so when you think of nuts like
Annalise: 1.4
Annalise: when you think of nuts like the mandate that gives or doesn't give
Zain: the mandate that gives or doesn't give to be clear right like this is the weakness of the mandates that mayors will be be receiving here it's not a significant one but
Annalise: but it's also like do people do people care so i bumped into i was at the chamber debate as well and bumped into rick bell who i'm sure many people people are familiar with i know him well um from from when i worked at the herald and we were talking after and he's kind of like he's like no like i've just been hearing about how mad people are for four years but where are these people i'm like are they mad like
Zain: but it's also like
Zain: many
SPEAKER_03: many people people are familiar
Zain: like or
Annalise: like or do they just not care and i think the big thing i'll be looking for on election night is is the voter turnout right like do do the undecided come out or do they just not vote and in my circles amongst and like Like I have friends who are like teachers, lawyers, doctors, nurses, but also like engaged people, former journalists I stay in touch with, like very engaged people. And they're like, I feel like I have to force myself to like do some research and watch a debate because I don't know what's happening. And that's the engaged. So that's where you're engaged are in this election. Like, what about everyone else?
Zain: Oh, man, I think you've put out so much wisdom on the table. Let me let me start with a couple of things to just react to a few of the things you've said. So I
Zain: find this concept of 2021 being a simpler time extremely wise because I think you're right and you've hit on something, which is COVID was something that afflicted everyone. So the argument there is that it was a monoculture thing. We were living in a very strange time, no doubt, an extremely trying time, but there was almost a bit of a monoculture. Everyone was at home plugged into the same Internet box to receive the same amount of communications. We also had a very clear ballot box question that was framed by by Gondek and by extension Carter, who was running Gondek's campaign at that time, which was taking on Jason Kenney. A
SPEAKER_04: to receive
Corey: receive
Annalise: hundred percent. Right. So I had a very clear
Zain: So I had a very clear lane of Farkas and credited to Gondek at the time. Farkas is an extension of Kenney. I am going to fight Kenney on everything that was happening in the monoculture of COVID. That
Zain: was a simpler time, because it was easy to digest. It was easy to understand. We were all living the same truth, the same reality. You could even, you
Zain: know, our memories are so short, but 2021 was
Zain: was just the start of vaccinations coming out, of vaccines being available. We hadn't really hit the peak of the anti-vax movement. We hadn't hit the convoy movement yet. We hadn't hit all these fracturing things. I'm not saying there was like harmony in the air, but I do think you make a very good point that we were kind of it was a simpler time. There was no Trump. It was a Biden administration. There was no global worldly down south distraction. You know, 2021 in that same relative time horizon, Trudeau had just gotten reelected. The emergence of Pierre Polyev was not a thing as an alternative. So we were living in a very different, like, and we were also on the, what
SPEAKER_02: was a Biden administration.
Zain: I'd say, at least in like the very narrow confines of history, was on the high point of the broader sort of equality, justice, equity, diversity movement, which I don't think is the reason Gondek is in office, but I think it's certainly kind of contributed to that more compassionate, look what we can do sort of spirit of culture. Sure. I think we were just there. This
Corey: diversity movement,
SPEAKER_04: which I
Corey: I
SPEAKER_04: I
Zain: is a very different time. Extremely fractured, extremely distracting, the down south element of it. I don't and it's what's fascinating to me is that I think more people today in raw numbers are engaged in politics as a cultural observational sport. Fewer people are engaged in politics as a raw, let me put my vote somewhere sport. And I think they're engaged in culture because politics is culture based on what's happening down south, what's happening down south with us on a national level with what Smith is doing on a daily basis. So I think there's a lot of wisdom there on 2021 being a simpler time, even though this is a rerun of some of the same candidates with a few more characters this time around.
Annalise: what's
Corey: what's happening down
Zain: The ballot box question here is fascinating to me because I think it's starting to emerge this week or this weekend. What do you
Annalise: this weekend. What do you think it is? I'm so curious. And also, like, there's three days. Why is it emerging with
Annalise: with three days? Tell me what you think it is. This is not insightful.
Zain: days? Tell me what you think it is. This is not insightful. This is not insightful other than to say it kind of goes to my first question, which is other than to say, OK, Sharp looks more viable than ever before. Who can stop bad things from happening? I don't think the question is who is the best mayor.
Annalise: If that were the question,
Zain: If that were the question, who can – and whatever bad things are to you, if it's a Gondek rerun – by the way, one of the questions available on the table, which I'm surprised is not the question we're fighting here, is a referendum on Jyoti Gondek. But here she is, Jyoti Gondek, who's running as like – oh, yeah, by the way, I was mayor, and I still continue to be mayor – as almost a brand new thing, and she's first or second in the polls. Like, if Jyoti Gondek wins Monday night, people won't celebrate that as a Jyoti Gondek win as much as they'll be like, yeah, low voter turnout, all those things. But holy shit, did she escape, strategically or otherwise, from a referendum? The woman literally had a fucking recall against her, and she could be mayor again, which goes back to your other wise point around, are people actually mad or are they disengaged? And will the engaged people finally learn the lesson? Like the engaged people on the center, right? Let's just say the center all the way to the left, kind of say, maybe we got to coalesce around Gondek. I'm not saying that's what everyone's doing. I don't want to count out these and I don't want to count on anybody at this case, because 50% undecided, you know, in that sense, the smart money is that most of those people stay home. But there could be some true undecideds in that mix, as you mentioned, with even the hyper engaged. But I think the question that is framing up is a negative partisan question, which is, who can stop evil from happening? Or who could stop bad stuff from happening? Not evil might be too deep of a word, or too charged of a word, whatever that might mean for you. And for the left or for the center in the left, as Sharp has become more viable, I think that question snaps into focus. And then for the right, as Gondek and a new progressive light version of Farkas flirt with one and two in the polls, the coalescing around Sharp might occur. So this is – I
Zain: don't think it's a perfect question. I don't think it's a universal question. It's not about infills. It's not about housing. It's not about safety. It's about vibes and where you kind of stand in that sense. Now, is that what the gen pop is thinking? I
SPEAKER_04: don't think it's
Zain: don't know. You tell me. well
Annalise: well i i think even that speaks to the point about it being boring right like that
Zain: that
Annalise: that no no one came out a big piece of this i would say like six months ago a lot of the conversations i was having just with folks was like city of two million people we're going to be two million people what are we like as a city of two million people yeah what are our big ideas how do we have infrastructure how do we have safety the housing right like fastest growing city in canada 250 people moving here a day it could have been i think with the right framing something that excited people about like yeah who who is best suited to lead us to a city of two million people who are we excited about who do we want in charge as our kids grow that type of thing and no one has been able to do that i think sharp has hit sharp is the one who's increased the most in the polls that we've seen out of the few polls that we've seen and sharp has money um i think that was apparent when the disclosures came out she and her party have money i
SPEAKER_00: are our big ideas
SPEAKER_03: was apparent when
SPEAKER_00: when
SPEAKER_03: when
Annalise: i think um theistan and and carter and the calgary party have been kind of running an anti um anti daniel smith campaign for a while but it has not been until the past week i would say the thursday chamber debate that they've tied sonia sharp to daniel smith which
Zain: campaign for a while but it
Annalise: which is a really easy like for weeks i'm like why is no one doing this there are easy connections there's easy endorsements there's pictures like there's an easy connection last night um at the cbc debate uh decent brought it up a few times sharp did say she said like i'm a card carrying nobody i don't answer to anybody we need positive relationships farkas is trying to bring up the take back alberta endorsement of of sharp but that even that like the connection between daniel smith and sharp i would say we're a week into that connection yeah
SPEAKER_00: we need positive
Zain: yeah right
Annalise: right like it's And
Zain: And I heard it yesterday. So just to bring folks up to speed, yesterday was what you'd call probably the most premium debate. There was podiums.
Corey: There
SPEAKER_00: There was
Annalise: was podiums. Yeah, they were not in chairs. There was podiums. Hey,
SPEAKER_00: podiums.
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, they were not in chairs. There
Corey: guys, sorry to interrupt. Corey here. Thought I would take a little bit of time out of my busy day job of running the country to do the important work of letting you know they're lecterns. They're not podiums. OK, thanks. Back to you. i
Zain: mean and i think the chamber did a good job and others did a good job putting on a debate that's not what i'm trying to imply here but the premium in terms of timing thursday before the election and the
Annalise: and the last one it was like it was debate number 17 it was the last one they were standing the format i thought was very well done yeah
Zain: debate number 17
SPEAKER_02: 17
Zain: they
SPEAKER_02: they
Zain: they were standing the
SPEAKER_02: the
Annalise: yeah um i was again chatting with someone who with cbc before i went in who said like they it was they kind of put it together quickly but their big thing was they wanted to be the last one um
SPEAKER_00: yeah um
SPEAKER_00: um and
Annalise: um and also the streaming right like it was it was streamed i I think online, I was there in person, but it was streamed online. I'm sure you could probably hear it on the radio. I think it was on radio. A lot of people text me this on radio,
SPEAKER_02: think it was on radio. A lot of people text me this on radio, yeah. Whereas
Annalise: yeah. Whereas the Chamber, which I should say, it was like Chamber, Creative Calgary, Downtown Association Construction. It was like kind of a group of them and that was kind of the big one, but the streaming wasn't great.
SPEAKER_02: I should
Zain: should
Annalise: great. It was like, I think TV did the first little bit and then they directed people to online, but then the link wasn't like working good. Like, yeah, I think, and I was in person at both. the audiences and one can imagine right the chamber one was downtown right after work more of a corporate crowd interestingly the chamber one the biggest applause of the night was when candidates spoke negatively about smith um timing there interesting
Zain: there interesting yeah i thought
Annalise: i thought that was interesting the timing though too is you were like what was the date a week ago like the teacher strike had just started right so that was on october 9th teacher strike started on the 6th um so maybe maybe that was a bit of it like that my takeaway was like okay calgarians are really united that we don't like smith and that we like teachers the cbc one i would say is harder to pull things out of the audience because it's like it's exactly who you would imagine listens to the cbc and loves the cbc and is engaged with the cbc um
SPEAKER_00: so that was
SPEAKER_02: cbc and loves the cbc
Annalise: um with some candidates you know putting their supporters in the room there was like there was an ask for no kind of applause and interaction and davison was getting a lot of applause and so then others were also applauding and laughing and kind of interacting that way um yeah i don't know where i don't know where i was going with that but i would say the cbc one was kind of the big like big final book and debate which if
Annalise: if if it's a three horse race and 35 of people are undecided and this is like the last debate someone needed to blow people out of the water and i don't think that happened and the other thing and i'd be curious is your take on this Zane I've been like very surprised that this is not happening this election
SPEAKER_00: don't think that happened
Annalise: there's no like
Annalise: social media rapid so there was a few things at the debate yesterday for different candidates where I'm like where's their team they should be clipping this getting this on social media having a part of the conversation and I think social has changed like I come from a time when people would be doing that on Twitter right like Twitter was and I was sitting beside someone yesterday at the debate who said like oh this is where I love love Twitter when you're like at something like this and you can go on Twitter and scroll and see what other people are like thinking live while this is happening you know you have that like kind of conversation no one's on Twitter right now right like that's not that's not happening but then the only candidate I saw who did it and Sonia Sharpe did it at both debates had the debate and then instantly that night a post Sonia Sharpe won the CBC debate and a picture of her smiling Sonia Sharpe won the chamber debate and then a lot of shares because her her supporters are like, yeah, she won it. And then comments are people being like, no, you didn't like in what world did you win it? You lost it. But she's the only one that I've seen. I looked this morning. Cause I was curious, look this morning at the five, like front runners, Instagrams. Season had just posted one sort of clip, but like, where is that like machine of like, you know, here's that math is difficult line that then we pull out. And then we get everywhere, almost like in an attack ads, you know, know whether it's your candidate saying something great or or someone else screwing up like where is that kind of like attack ad social media apparatus because i would argue that's easier than ever to do with
SPEAKER_02: you have that
Annalise: with a phone in your pocket yeah
Zain: yeah i mean from my perspective on that on that front and let me kind of let me respond to this and then kind of tell you where i want to go because i want to talk about if and i you mentioned three horse race and i want to pick up on that in a second shortly as we examine each of those three candidates and then talk about the scenarios We could see on Monday slash Tuesday. So let's get to that in a second. But before that, let's talk about process, because you've jumped into process. And I think it's very important. Because there's been an absence of a few things this election. And I think the environment is certainly different. You can comment. But let me give you the top line sort of things that have changed. Media, different. different. Yeah,
Annalise: Yeah, eroding, fractured. Yeah,
Zain: eroding, fractured. Yeah, media different, eroding and fractured. Okay, we can discuss that.
Zain: Organic is different because it's no longer as we've mentioned multiple times on this podcast. Most platforms for modern social media are now algorithmic rather than graph based, which means that you're not just seeing what your friends are putting online. Anyone could go viral with anything all the time, but there's no guarantee that your followers are even seeing what you're putting out there. This is the up and this This is the extremely simplified up and down of organic.
Zain: Paid, I've heard money is extremely hard to come by.
Annalise: I've
Zain: I've heard money is extremely hard to come by and that it has been hard to get eyeballs on certain things for candidates, even if they've been putting stuff on meta and putting a decent ad spend behind it, you know, let alone like things like TV. And if you remember Bill Smith, you know, in 2017, when we were facing that election, his paid included
Annalise: money
Zain: included actual billboards. I don't think I've seen a single billboard outside of Sonia Sharp in downtown, which I believe is just that one car dealership slash former car dealership area. You know what I'm talking about? On the flyover. Oh, I know. I drive
SPEAKER_02: think I've seen a single
Annalise: Oh, I know. I drive by every Wednesday morning. Yeah. So
Zain: drive by every
Zain: Yeah. So what you can tell me what that is. But that might just simply be where her campaign office is or a very, very, very committed supporter. But that was also the same Bill Smith sign location that we would see all the time. Smith's rented out things like out of home in the Flames Arena. arena um because to your point earlier the arena debate was massive in that uh in that regard and uh try to position and she is the anti-calgary flame person in that regard um so
Corey: we would see
Corey: that uh in
Zain: paid is different um there's no rate i haven't heard a single radio spot have you heard a single radio spot no
Annalise: no but also like ads have you have
Annalise: have you seen yeah have you seen that i haven't
Zain: you seen yeah have you seen that i haven't i haven't seen any like set pieces i haven't seen any sort of like set piece ads in the sense of like here's an ad about me as a candidate, 30, 15, skippable, unskippable, six second with like two. I know I haven't seen any of that. I think that might be a direct result of money. Yeah.
Annalise: like two.
Annalise: Yeah.
Zain: But I'll put it this way. You know, I think on organic, we've taken a step back to your point on rapid response. I don't know why maybe people don't have the horsepower or they haven't seen the performance. You know, one of the things with algorithmic social media that I have as a theory is that it actually could lead to decreased and it's not like a novel theory. It could lead to decreased increased um sort of desire to post when your stuff doesn't reach when a reel doesn't get the likes you need you you know you almost kind of think of it as like oh shit it's not working it incentivizes you to not do it and not next time right yeah
Annalise: yeah and
Zain: and i know the whole thing of the platform is that one out of every four things just goes crazy and bonkers so then you get excited that the next one will but it just might be like the team is just like this is not important no one's and it just might be this cloud like even us talking about organic social media right but But I think that contributes to it.
Zain: It contributes to people not engaging and not doing the stuff that we would consider conventional wisdom or like – but maybe we're going to, on the back end of this, find out what the new baseline of conventional wisdom on social media and paid media looks like. But let me give you the – on organic, I think we've taken a step back this election. On paid, I think we've taken a step back this election, but I'll excuse people that they don't have the money to do it. But in terms of the art, the creativity, the placement, the timing, the virality, or even the try to punch through, the attack ads, the stunts, all that sort of stuff that comes with it, I think we've taken a step back. Where I think we might have taken a step forward is if you were on the email list of these folks, on the owned side of things, the email list, I think campaigns are doing quite a good job talking to their supporters. Now, I have no sense. This is what Henderson yesterday said about the Edmonton campaign. I'll say about the Calgary campaign. I have no sense how big these dashboards are. I have no sense how big these email lists are. I have no sense of how any of this information, if you sign up to the Calgary party, is getting shared beyond it. But I'll tell you, they're doing sophisticated stuff. And I'm on most of these lists across the board. I
SPEAKER_02: all that
SPEAKER_02: I have no sense
Annalise: I
Zain: I think owned is taking a step forward or it's like, you know, on par with what you'd expect. But I'd say on the organic and paid, it is not existing in that same way. The other thing I'm fascinated about is
Zain: polling.
Corey: We've had
Zain: We've had two landmark Janet Brown polls. When I say two, I mean one for Edmonton, one for Calgary. But two at the same time. The Calgary one kind of showing an extremely tight race up front. We've had some Leche stuff, but we haven't really seen any other players in the mix. And I'm surprised that even from just
Corey: for Calgary. But two
Zain: a downright strategy perspective, there's no late-breaking poll last night or this morning. morning
Annalise: morning. morning
Annalise: morning
Annalise: i just kind of indicate
Zain: just kind of indicate that maybe this is this is a core consideration of strategy a core consideration of money but there's no sort of it's a three horse race here's the things defined heading into the weekend have this conversation it's
Zain: it's it's we're recording at 10 50 in the morning have you seen anything this morning because this morning would be the time to release it i have not seen anything and
Annalise: have not seen anything and i poked around yesterday and the day before and to the best of my knowledge there was not braid has don braid had like a line in his column yesterday that was like according to a secret poll that i'm not going to tell anyone about it's a it's a total three-way tie all three of the front runners are at the exact same number but like what does that mean like show me the poll um so no other than that one line in don braid's column that was posted last night i have not heard or seen of any polling that will be public um leading into the weekend when people are supposed to be making up their minds in what is being framed. And I think fairly from, I think Janet was like, everyone was waiting for Janet Brown's poll, right? There had been kind of some other dribs and drabs, including like a Main Street one. Is
SPEAKER_00: There had been kind
Zain: Is Main Street back in the mix? Sorry, not Main Street. Sorry, sorry, sorry. No,
Annalise: in the mix? Sorry, not Main Street. Sorry, sorry, sorry. No, I have Main Street on my mind. It's 2017. Not Main Street. Mark Henry. I have Purge
Zain: Not Main Street. Mark Henry. I have Purge Main Street on my mind. Think HQ.
Annalise: Street on my mind. Think HQ.
Zain: HQ. Oh, Think HQ.
Annalise: The Think HQ one. Mark Henry. But Mark Henry's like involved with Sonia Sharpe's campaign, right? Oh, I didn't know that. Oh, okay. So, Think HQ, like, literally, you can look it up. The address to donate to Communities First is the same address of Think HQ headquarters. Oh, goodness. So, Think HQ came up with a poll via Sonia Sharp that put Sonia Sharp in first. So, there was that. And, again, that's, like, you're, like, an insider to know, like, who is Mark Henry? Do you want Sonia Sharp in first if you want her to
Zain: The Think HQ
SPEAKER_03: HQ
Zain: Mark Henry. But Mark
SPEAKER_03: Mark
SPEAKER_03: Oh, I didn't know that. Oh, okay. So,
SPEAKER_03: Think
SPEAKER_02: Think
SPEAKER_03: Think
SPEAKER_02: same address of
SPEAKER_02: Oh, goodness.
SPEAKER_02: Sonia
SPEAKER_00: Sonia Sharp in first.
SPEAKER_00: Do you want
Zain: want
Zain: Sonia Sharp in first if you want her to win? Like, I'm just, like, now thinking of pure strategy. like like would that not like further the progress or the center to the far left coalescence so
Annalise: left coalescence
Annalise: so i think what i think what has been really interesting to me about sharp's campaign is like she is the one who's hit momentum at the right time but to your point it's almost like people are coming out in two days before being like the ballot box question is who can beat sonia sharp who can take her on and that's like what causes people to coalesce she's run
Zain: she's run a like a visible campaign pain. Her signs are everywhere. As you've said, money has not seemed to be a problem for her per se. So she does look like a front runner status.
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Zain: do want to revisit before i jump into this can i can i take us a step back to something you said and i don't want to miss out this out in the conversation which is the
Corey: said and
Zain: the big question if
Corey: if someone
Zain: if
Zain: if someone why do you think the big question was not framed whether that is the version of the two million city question or the next chapter question or someone Someone trying to really, like, yes, I've got policies on X, Y, and Z, but I'm framing this as the election of big thing. Is that just a factor of someone not doing it? Is that a factor of someone trying to do it and not punching through and not being able to communicate it? Like, and what do you think was kind of missing in this race in that regard with that big thing that would make it? I'm not saying that alone would make it less boring, but it would make it a little bit more exciting. And I want to make sure I capture your thoughts on this. a noting the absence which i agree with but b maybe give me a bit of why from your perspective around why do you think it was missing i
Corey: I capture your
Annalise: i think it again to the point about it being boring is like people are playing it safe right like farkas and maybe now's the time to get into the the change like farkas has painted himself in a box that he can't get out of in order for farkas to win he needs some progressive give me the back give
Zain: needs some progressive
Zain: give me the back give me the backstory on farkas okay so the backstory
Annalise: okay so the backstory story on farkas like a very quick one yeah yeah yeah farkas was first elected in 2017 he was like 30 31 one of the youngest counselors ever at the time if not the youngest manning center trained very so like trained from like a very conservative school of like thought and i would say media relations of like here's your key message you go and you say your key message and you say it and you say it and you say it um so he served us four years then he ran he lost he was runner up to gondek last time then he went on a big um hike like i and i'm not making fun of it he is as someone who loves the outdoors what he did he went on a very hard long hike got like a shit ton of media out of it um so instantly when he's on this hike people are like well farkas is gonna run again right like why if you're just like going to reflect the politics
Zain: like a very quick one yeah yeah
SPEAKER_00: thought and
Zain: like why if you're
Zain: reflect the politics through it right you're going
Annalise: it right you're going to reflect but he like he was in media i would argue that first year of gondek and mayor and someone can look at the stats like farkas was in media almost as much as gondek and she was like mayor but he was like he did this thing for charity and he would like check in while he was on the trail from a satellite phone and this and that um
SPEAKER_00: um
Annalise: i obviously know farkas from covering him in 2017 and then him
Annalise: and i went for like a walk this is a couple years ago now because i was like so frustrated by the media coverage because media was just like this is a new farkas and i was like has he changed do people change so we went on a walk for my newsletter that was just like did he change has farkas changed anyways from there um he what was your concern
Zain: what was your concern and i apologize i don't remember the piece but what was your conclusion that's
Annalise: that's a good question i don't even know if i remember what the conclusion was it's almost like that's
Zain: it's almost like that's actually exactly the point right like the fact that people are asking the question is is almost is almost like important because the question is framed around him well
Annalise: right like the fact that people are asking the
Annalise: well and it's like it's like a i was so fascinated by it from like a psychology point of view like to do do people change is it all an act and
Zain: well and it's like
Zain: do do
Zain: it all an act and that quickly right like i think the question is compounded with do people change in a very convenient this is no slight against fark is because because uh i have respect for the guy and and his skills but two people change in a convenient election cycle like timeline like and in like in
Annalise: cycle like
Annalise: timeline like
Annalise: and in like in a way where you're in media all the time like i know people including including
Zain: including including then being a panel mate of right and so then cbc so that in subsequent years they're on it totally right
Annalise: right and so then cbc so that in subsequent years
Annalise: totally right so then kind of the the redemption tour nenshi and him do this spot on cbc which is a lot of people listen to the eye opener um but yeah he kind of was more like painted in in the years after that of like you know friend friend of nenshi and he's changed and and that sort of thing and i think fundamentally that's like and he has darcy lebray who who was nenshi's comms guy who was nenshi's comms guy for years is like super senior on farkas's campaign which is a piece that like media like everyone knows that they know that they talk about it was darcy but like he's like a well
SPEAKER_02: um but
SPEAKER_03: but
SPEAKER_03: who was nenshi's comms guy who
SPEAKER_03: who was
SPEAKER_03: they
Zain: they know
SPEAKER_03: know
Zain: that they talk about it was darcy but like he's like a well-known 10 15 year vet of the calgary media lands he literally does media relations he's like Like, and I don't think he's hiding behind this, to be clear. No, no, not at all.
Annalise: 10 15 year
Annalise: and I don't
Annalise: be clear. No, no, not at all. Not at all. Like, Darcy's been quite
Zain: all. Like, Darcy's been quite proud of his work there, and he very well might end up in City Hall again, like, which is really interesting. But, like, in the media environment, I remember
Annalise: really interesting.
Annalise: remember when Farkas launched, I'm like, why did no one even have a sentence that was like, you know, his comms guy, or whatever Darcy was at the time on the campaign, was Nenshi's, right? Right, right. Like, whether they revealed it, but it wasn't hidden. That is not hidden. and i'm not like telling state secrets you're not exposing
SPEAKER_00: remember
SPEAKER_00: comms
SPEAKER_02: comms
SPEAKER_02: Right,
Zain: Right, right.
Zain: right. Like, whether
SPEAKER_02: whether
Zain: you're not exposing yeah right but
Annalise: right but the fact the fact that you go from like someone who was in ninji's inner circle for years who is now in farkas's inner circle is fascinating and i think the farkas campaign needs right they need the progressive to your point about the left like i think the left will really short of like davison dropping out this weekend and endorsing sharp i think that the left like whoever wins needs the left left right and so it then you get back to this fundamental question that I asked a couple years ago of like has he changed do people change and I think that's something that people are like grappling with and in the debates that I've seen it's come up his opponents call him like flip-flop Farkas this and that but like also you know can can people change he was young before can they learn from their mistakes has
SPEAKER_02: that's something that people
Annalise: has he changed I think that like in terms of a ballot box question if If, you know, on Monday we're still going into it with, like, Farkas as frontrunner, has
Annalise: has he changed is almost what the ballot box question is, which is, like, we
Annalise: we could do hours of podcast on that.
Zain: on that. Let's do a couple of minutes on this, and I'm glad you brought in Farkas to this point.
Annalise: Why did Thiessen,
Zain: Thiessen, let's use Thiessen, let's not pick on Carter, but let's pick on Thiessen for a second, because this guy could have been the answer for best mayor of Calgary. Yeah.
SPEAKER_03: this
Corey: this guy could
Corey: Yeah. If
Zain: If you want the best person with the qualifications outside or if you're tired of this fucking bullshit of all these has been and wanting to be continue to be mayor. I'm the guy with the right credentials.
Zain: Big question in the sense of the big asking the big question or pushing. Did he try and just couldn't punch through? Do you feel like he didn't try to ask? What do you kind of think the story of Thiessen is? Because he might actually be our gateway to talking about what I think is a big story in this campaign, which is the parties. Because unlike Edmonton, where it's got Cartmel belonging to a party and everyone else being an independent, we've got now two parties here, Calgary party, at least in terms of with mayoral candidates, I should say. And I know you mentioned earlier that Davidson is endorsed by a
Annalise: a party. and
Zain: and sonia sharp belonging to a very uh buttoned down sort of more conservative approach so talk to me about the thesen story here in the frame of parties yes but also in the frame of the big question yeah
Annalise: i think i
Annalise: think if the if we had like two or three more weeks in the campaign
Annalise: i think it would be different for thesen but
Zain: but he started months a month ago like he started he started so early but
Annalise: like he started he started so early but he was like he started as like such like okay he was chair of the police commission he was like citizen of the year in 2020 i think which again covet based on his work on the commission i know him well from when i was a city hall reporter and he was chair of the police commission right
SPEAKER_00: citizen
Zain: right but
Annalise: but like the does the average person even know what the police commission is no
Zain: no idea they probably confuse it with the police association that's right sharp and so like i
Annalise: that's right sharp
Annalise: so like i think i think that name recognition piece was a really really really big uphill battle i do think people at the debates and again but it's insiders watching the debates so like usually the debates afterwards i chat with a lot of people hear what they're thinking what they're saying the chamber one people were like thesen like won that a hundred percent he also that was the first time he went really hot on tying sharp to smith and again the teacher strike timing um last night i feel like people felt like davis and davison davison was entertaining right like people thought that davidson in terms of like a winner i think he's then i the conversations in in my circles are like we really like him he would be great but does he have a chance which gets back to ballot box question if ballot box question is who is best suited to take on sonia sharp um
Zain: that name
Annalise: um i just i think he i think he needed a couple more maybe longer than that and i don't i don't want to count them out anything could happen it's a three horse race undecideds are really really high um but i think if season can't pull it off i think the timing the name recognition and also again there's like there's what's what's the talker like even maybe it's like something that's like not going to be popular but could he have come out with something that's like that
Annalise: that just creates conversation that draws attention i think a big thing of where they got a bunch of traditional media and they got a lot of eyeballs was the sign stuff and i remember grilling carter on that in the summer because i was just entertained because i saw the first sign and knew that but yeah
SPEAKER_00: and i remember
Zain: but yeah
SPEAKER_04: yeah
Zain: yeah i
SPEAKER_04: i
Annalise: i
Zain: i
SPEAKER_04: i
Annalise: i just don't i
Annalise: i also wonder and i don't want to get too much into the parties i think we'll obviously know more on tuesday but like do calgarians like the parties and i think the thesis that thesen came out with at the beginning was like this is the system that daniel smith has put in place i'm a lawyer i follow rules thus i am following the rules and this is our party but i
Annalise: i just don't know if that like worked when you had farkas davison and gondek who are not part of parties and when you had a lot of ward level and ward is a whole nother thing a lot of ward level candidates who's like their their campaign lit and their big key message is independent independent independent independent right and i think the initial polling showed albertans didn't want parties i think it's changed slightly but then we're also in a time frame where Where, like, with the teacher strike, Daniel Smith is not, like, doing super well in Calgary right now. And so if the tie is, like, parties equal Daniel Smith, how do you get away from that? It's
SPEAKER_00: independent right and i think the
Zain: It's
Zain: It's a tough pretzel when you're also the anti-Daniel Smith candidate, or at least the one punching through on that. Being like, she set this up, so I'm following her rules. It's like, why aren't you challenging her rules? Why aren't you, like, you know, all these other people are doing so? So, you know, I think for Thiessen, the fact is, I think the best mayor question would have been very helpful to them. But as soon as people turn into pundits, and what I mean by that is they turn into people like you and I who talk about things like viability. As soon as voters turn into pundits, that's trouble when you're not one of the people that's showing viability through metrics like polling or momentum or other sort of congealed sort of metrics like that. And I think the other aspect of this election that I think may have influenced and may have impacted Thiessen the most. and it's it's i'm taking what you're saying just repackaging in a slightly different way is that in
Annalise: set this up, so I'm following
SPEAKER_04: And I think
Zain: any election the
Zain: the hyper engaged or the insiders whatever you want to call them right or a combination of the two i think insiders have more of a touch and feel even know some of these people like people like you and i would be classified in that and in the broadest sense but that plus the hyper engaged influence what the second or the fourth tier of people and i don't mean that as a tier of like anything other than engagement of the election what they do and how they do it but if those two groups the insiders and the hyper engaged are still either mealy-mouthed or confused or in their text groups being like fuck what are we doing folks like what are we doing then
SPEAKER_02: the second
Zain: there's no broadcast signal for them not even i don't even like putting up an endorsement today i as an insider am voting for like i don't even mean like i mean casually in conversation how many times have you gotten asked around what you're doing and i don't have a clear answer in In the sense, it's not clear. I have a clear answer. I don't have a confident answer that will lead to an outcome that is that that answers the question that in the sense, and if this is, and I use you and I as proxies, because I don't mean exactly you and I, but people like you and I, if we're still struggling to your earlier point, then what hope does that have to send any formal informal network based signal to to those around us around what to do, how it's shaping up what's going on. And I think one core ingredient missing in both cities in this election is that and less so in Edmonton, because I think folks are starting to understand the task. It's a two horse race. And that for the most part, and that we got to stop Cartmel if you're if you're anywhere between, you know, let's just say on the on the left, and some folks on the center, that task is less clear here. That path is less clear here. I think Farkas, to your earlier description of who he's become and who he wants to be, makes that task a bit harder in terms of what folks are doing. I think Gondek with her history and perhaps a little bit of disappointment for some people makes that task harder. And then Thiessen with all his promise, right,
Corey: it's not clear. I
Corey: lead to an
SPEAKER_04: And that
SPEAKER_02: That path
Zain: with all his promise and all his ability and maybe progressives not necessarily taking to the parties as much as they'd hoped and all those sort of things also makes that task harder. but the fact is that that a lot of folks who should know what they're doing don't know what they're doing and we're on fucking friday well and
Annalise: and then that's right and then that's the thing it's like do they do they come out do they come out to vote i think if i think if in the jenna brown poll thesen
Zain: then that's right and
Annalise: thesen was at like 12 percent and i think he was at eight um i have it written down somewhere um but like if he was at like if he was a little bit higher i think it would make that argument of like third to first
Zain: think
Zain: third to first right first fourth to first yeah and then which is a movie that this place has seen before to your point yeah and like to
Annalise: right first fourth
Annalise: and then which is a movie
Annalise: to your point yeah and like to your point about like the influencer this is where i also think like back
Annalise: back in the day someone could have gone on twitter and seen like oh this this person who i respect or this person who i think they know what they're talking about is like talking positively about these and that's gone now i would say reddit weirdly yes like say reddit
Zain: yes like say reddit too in in
Annalise: reddit too in in the same way that like four years ago people would like send me links to people's tweets i've been like every day three or four like links someone will send me to reddit and i'm like okay but who's writing this right like they're like everything's anonymous is this just like a ton of calgary party people or is it like i don't know yeah who's behind it it's not like it's not that like face and that name that you would see on twitter it
SPEAKER_02: in
Zain: is interesting that's a good point around the anonymity or like the perceived anonymity that reddit can can can can instill well the most here's my summary of reddit conversations because reddit probably leans a bit more progressive in that sense of bubbles that you and i are probably more actively part of um thesen
Zain: comes up more disproportionately than he does in the polling yeah
Zain: yeah
Annalise: yeah and
Zain: and that if i'm the calgary party folks and if i'm carter and brian i'm like but thesen comes up and then every couple of comments later and once again this your point around anonymity really speaks here ah but i can't support parties it's
Zain: it's okay well and that also right like oh fuck i can't support and then it's just kind of like start back at zero and it's like oh gundak i guess like and that's like in and it's like these and these i can't support but i just and so there's there is a connect there is a there there around the baggage thesen might be carrying and carter in in our debrief you know regardless the result can can parade around and tell us we were wrong or frankly we'll parade around and tell us we were right he'll parade around regardless but uh Uh,
SPEAKER_00: well
Corey: well
Annalise: well and that also right like oh
Annalise: and then
Annalise: that's like in and it's like these and these i can't
Zain: there
Zain: is the decent party thing is, and my perceived thing is it's a bit of a weight he's carrying right now. Um, it might've been an asset. You, Carter may argue on the back end that it wouldn't have gotten him anywhere near where even the eight, 10, 12% he ends up with. If there wasn't a party infrastructure, he could make that argument. I don't know if I'd buy it, but it seems like decent in the party seemed to be a bit of an anchor right now.
Annalise: Yeah. I'm so, I'm fascinated by it. And I think again, time will tell in three, four days, but like head, you know, did, did did the party help or hurt and would it have looked different? And honestly, the actual infrastructure and maybe I've been brainwashed by talking to Carter about this, but like the party infrastructure is like you have your person and then you have your 14 people or 13 for the Calgary party who then are like, you know, they're door knocking and they're having those conversations and they're sharing his face and they're sharing his name. Like you have all these proxies out there who are like, that makes sense. But you're like, if, if what you're starting at is that people don't like parties because parties equals smith and people don't like smith yeah
SPEAKER_02: are like,
Zain: yeah yeah right i
Annalise: right i
Zain: i i you know politics is one of those weird sports as you're aware of that if you win everything you did is considered celebrated and celebrated as golden if you lose what a fucking shitty idea um in terms of the good work both the calgary party had better edmonton whatever you think of them like that is an impressive undertaking literally creating two political slates branding them consistently um having Having those signs, those lits, those candidate discipline. Recruiting 14
Corey: considered celebrated and
Annalise: candidate discipline. Recruiting 14 candidates, even that in itself. There is a lot to
Zain: in itself. There is a lot to be impressed with. Yeah,
Annalise: Yeah, in a time. And it's not just because Stephen is our
Zain: in a time. And it's not just because Stephen is our friend, but there's a lot to be impressed with there. I just don't know if it'll work.
Zain: And Carter will have to defend a lot of those decisions. But there is a lot of good, interesting novel. I think novel is the right word. Novel work being done here. So when we talk about things taking a step forward and a step backward, the party, as much as people may hate it, has actually produced quite an interesting level of political practitionership and craftsmanship that I think should be at least studied, maybe celebrated, but definitely studied. I
Annalise: being
Annalise: I think even the recruitment
Annalise: recruitment aspect, like I, full disclosure, I think being a city councillor is not a great job. I think it's getting harder and harder to get people in that that role um and so i think the recruitment and also having that kind of like campaign in a box and i i saw someone crunch it must have been on reddit someone sent me but like crunch the numbers of um how many female candidates and the conclusion was basically like female candidates were more likely to run with a party because they were given the infrastructure so i do think there's things like that that accountability episode we can like learn from um but yeah i just i just question and here's where you get into like do the undecided show up and do people what
SPEAKER_00: think it's
SPEAKER_00: conclusion was basically
Annalise: what are people feeling about parties in in three days let's
Zain: in three days let's
Zain: let's let's absorb that into what i want to kind of do as their scenario um or scenarios plural give me the most likely scenarios on election night for mayor we'll talk about cancel at the end of this thing but for mayor give me the most likely scenarios that we could see on election night or you know election day morning i
Annalise: day morning i
Annalise: i think this is all caveat that um davison and thesen don't drop out this weekend because that would change everything if they if davison was like hey i'm gonna get behind sharp or if thesen was like hey in order to beat sharp we got to get behind do you know if those conversations are active
Zain: do you know if those conversations are active or are you because no i wasn't even thinking of that i'm just so the fact that you raised it i'm like do you know something no no no
Annalise: i'm just so the fact that you raised it i'm like do you know something no no no i'm just i'm just during the pot i do think like if okay to the to the sharp davison conversation if
Zain: i'm just i'm
Annalise: if davison was not running i think sharp would be number one by a mile and And if Sharp was not running, I think Davison and Farkas would be kind of like eking it out there. I think Davison in the race does change a lot.
SPEAKER_00: Sharp was not running,
Annalise: Okay, so scenarios, I think, well, like what's voter turnout going to be, right?
Annalise: So last time, I haven't written it down. I think you
Zain: haven't written it down. I think you could, in my mind, one of the reasons I think scenarios are helpful is, let's say we go down scenario Gondek W, we might be able to comment on voter turnout and where the undecideds go based on those. and if we go scenario like that's why i'm kind of thinking like give me give me what and like i said i'm actually kind of blind here so i'm i'm i'm really curious to get a sense of where you're at with these and what you think viable scenarios are and even if you want to add a most likely in your mind or what i don't know zane like
SPEAKER_02: undecideds go based on
Annalise: i don't know zane like i don't i would love i think i think it i think we're looking at a fargus win a gondek winner a sharp win i think those are the three the three most realistic possibilities okay um
Zain: those are the three the three
Zain: okay um
Annalise: um i think short of a new poll coming out today that shows like a huge thesis and surge i think those are the three realistic possibilities i think in order for farkas to win progressives need to determine that he is best to take on sharp and in order for gondek to win progressives who a lot of them were her voters last time need to determine that she is best to take on sharp and determine that like hey you know what maybe we haven't loved absolutely everything but like we're gonna give her another opportunity i was chatting with someone the other day and the language they use they're like i'm voting gondek they're like you know what i haven't loved everything she's done but i don't think she deserves being fired so i think in order for gondek to win you need like which it shouldn't
SPEAKER_00: need to determine
Annalise: shouldn't be as hard because those are the people that voted for her last time right and that's what's like so weird about this election is i think in order for for Farkas to win you need people who voted for Gondek last time not Farkas right they we both their names were on the ballot last time so you need people who voted for Gondek to be like we have had such an issue that now we're voting for someone different and it's going to be the person that she beat last time like
SPEAKER_03: in order
SPEAKER_03: order
Annalise: like it's it's a weird it's a weird election very
Zain: very weird so a Gondek so a Farkas win requires you think coalescence around him by people on on the center and the left yeah
Annalise: yeah i think i think his base is i think his base is locked in and i don't think he's taking that much from sharper davison this
Zain: sharper davison this
Zain: this
Zain: this is what i'm curious did he rebuild his base from 21 or did people just follow the jeremy personality not care about ideology and he started with that like i know it's a hard question to ask yeah being in on this campaigns but i'm curious like is this a guy that like pretty much lost his entire base or did he come with something back to the table in in 25 with a with a changed man sort of aspect to it i
SPEAKER_02: yeah being in
Annalise: he come with something
Annalise: aspect to it i think he has i think he and again i'm not like an expert on this i think he has i think some of his base are smith supporters and i think again in terms of him being in a tough box at a time when there's a teacher strike and people are not loving what smith is doing right now he can't be the one attacking smith right because he's in this this box um so i don't i i think his base has i mean i would love to see like data on this i think his base has changed i think some of his base is also like he's he's pulled some of that cbc crowd right who are like you know what people can change and i liked what he said on cbc when he was on the panel with nancy um yeah i his his base is so interesting to me because it's not like black and white in the way that others are as is evidence and he said even last night there was was like a question at the end about um a
SPEAKER_00: in terms of
SPEAKER_02: because he's in this
SPEAKER_00: way that
Zain: that others
Annalise: highlight of your campaign type thing and he talked about working with darcy and amanda he's like i'm so proud of the fact that like we've put these you know people who four years ago eight years ago it would have been unheard of that they were supporters they're now senior campaign people um but it's the question is like does he have enough people that move over and believe that he is a changed man so
Zain: it's a wild wild um thing
Zain: if if Farkas wins based on a potentially a net new or largely net new coalition.
Zain: Talk to me about that.
Annalise: about that. I'll just add one more thing about the Farkas thing. Yesterday at the debate, he kept kind of like holding up his campaign policies. And I do, if you, if you actually like, if you were to read campaign policies and not see whose name is on the policies, like taking the header out. I think a lot of progressives would be on team Farkas.
Zain: on the policies, like taking the header out. I think
Zain: Really? I
Annalise: I think so. Based on policies. Maybe I'm wrong. tell me i'm wrong but like i think if you were to just blind read it i think people what what he is saying people a lot of what he's saying people like agree with but then you have progressives who are like no i don't believe that he's changed the trust delta is there what
SPEAKER_00: blind
Zain: i don't believe that he's changed the trust delta is there what
Zain: does a gondek win mean like what's that that scenario is also viable it's also it's all it seems as possible as any of the other two what would if far if if gondek wins i'm sorry if gondek wins what would have needed to happen i
Annalise: as
Annalise: any
Zain: guess is a way to ask you what would have happened or what would have needed to happen in your mind i
Annalise: mind i think either
Zain: either on turnout on undecideds on the support of the other two leading contenders on supporter of someone like thesen like give me give me your sense of if a gondek win happens what other conditional things have also happened in that i think
Annalise: think thesen supporters go to her and i think the progressives who are undecided who are like flirting with parkas go to her i
Annalise: i think is what and and i think they'll like the daniel the anti anti-Daniel Smith, anti-Sonya Sharp. It's like she needs to just lock in the people who, again, some of them were people who voted. A lot of them were people who voted for her last time.
SPEAKER_00: i think
Zain: It is interesting to me that if Farkas is now considered one of the left or can have elements of left to him in terms of his base, that Gondek and Farkas didn't go after each other much earlier in order to totally make the case that this
Zain: this is your person to be the standard bearer. If it comes down to us versus a conservative. In this case, this is a scenario that in the simplest of terms, if you believe what Farkas stands for, it's two left wing candidates versus a right one at the top. And
Zain: the vote split goes the other way here. It doesn't it doesn't have this is not this classic Alberta to right wing candidates, although the second one exists in Davis and his viability seems less. this could be a very fascinating two center to left wing center left candidates and we can talk about gondek's history there'll be many people who argue with us around neither of these candidates being progressive because of where gondek came in years ago as a counselor as a developer candidate and has maybe made a political sort of shift in her okay sure i want to acknowledge it uh for this case i want to make it extremely simplistic that you could have two left or perceived left candidates going against a right wing one and the right wing one comes through the middle that
Corey: because of where
Annalise: that okay i almost feel like maybe i'm gonna regret saying this i almost feel like a gondek win is like the most plausible for what has been such like a boring election right back to what we talked about at the very beginning right this boring seinfeld election where you have an incumbent mayor you think it's right yeah because like traditionally traditionally this should be a boring election because you have an incumbent mayor who's running for a second term right like Like, pull up all the stats on
Zain: incumbent mayor you think it's right yeah because like traditionally
SPEAKER_00: up all the stats on people
Annalise: people who are running for a second term, right?
Annalise: right? They blow people out of the water. So, like, it's been exciting in the sense that that is not happening. But I almost feel like just based on what this election has been like, that would be the most fitting conclusion. It's like, look, she beat the same two people who ran against her last time. We reject parties four more years. The
Zain: Sharp scenario. nero give me give me the what what other conditional things would have needed to happen if sonia sharp is mayor of calgary as of monday night i
Annalise: i think davison supporters need to go to sharp and i don't davison
Annalise: davison supporters are really like they love him and i don't fight it
Zain: i don't fight it seems like even recently his endorsements keep piling in from former conservatives they love him and like he's
Annalise: like even recently his endorsements keep piling
Annalise: conservatives they love him and like he's he he has been so just like comfortable and funny on
Annalise: on the debate stage and i think some of of it is just because like he doesn't care he's
Zain: some of of it
Annalise: he's
Zain: he's got nothing to lose yeah
Annalise: to lose
Annalise: yeah but literally maybe
Zain: but literally maybe here on monday night he's like i
Annalise: he's like i was i was chatting with someone after yesterday who was like you know like i would just love to grab a beer with him they're like if i didn't know anything about his policies i didn't know anything about who he is he's like by far the most likable i would love to grab yeah i would love to grab a beer with him and so i think in order for sharp to kind of come up the middle to your point that being said sharp has good momentum sharp has money in order for her her to come up the middle i do think she needs to take a little bit from davison and i guess fark is but like i don't think thesen and gondek supporters are going to her
Corey: yeah i
Annalise: who
Zain: who ends up here
Zain: here's here's a question that that that you can take any way you want but i think it's worthy of asking who ends up as a regardless of these outcomes in these scenarios who ends up the biggest winner of monday night and who ends up the biggest loser of monday night and
Zain: i don't even even just mean from who's running i'm just kind of getting a sense from okay even even as the broadest version of that question as you want to take well
SPEAKER_02: from
Annalise: from who's
Annalise: okay
Annalise: well i think the thing that like we need to address that people often don't is like the mayor is one vote right and it's like the mayor is like cheerleader in like the face of calgary and like will lead us for the next four like exceedingly important years but they're one vote so to go off of those scenarios we were just talking about out like if sonja sharp wins but then and i think there's six incumbents running again um
SPEAKER_00: and it's
Annalise: out
Zain: out of is it 15 or 14 14 yeah
Annalise: yeah so i think there's i think there's six incumbents and three of them are with um communities first but like if like i think that i think the council so you're gonna have that's a ton of turnover right and it's like being a counselor is a really really hard job and it's like it takes a couple years if not two to three years to even understand what you're doing and how the city works and all of that so you're gonna have um a lot of new faces around the table and i think it depends it depends what council looks like right like if if gondek wins again and then the council itself is super conservative that's
Zain: i think there's
Zain: like
Zain: it's like being
Annalise: that's going to be a super different situation than if sharp wins and the council's more progressive right like they're
Corey: they're
SPEAKER_04: they're
Annalise: they're they're one vote and i think this is the thing it's like the thought with the parties was like whoever wins mayor brings all these people who they know will vote alongside them with them and i just don't know if that is what's going to happen the
Zain: parties may not have actually functionally kind of created slates that kind of you know the the dream of the party was that it would have
Zain: discipline in the campaign discipline and governance and that does not seem to be the case with with the calgary party or even where communities first might be headed in terms of their their outcomes here also
Annalise: might be
Annalise: also that they have to disband after the election which like i learned i learned that lies with carter in a summer episode and it just like blew my mind like you're like well then what's what's the point and i say i do think actually the calgary party has been framing that for insiders who are anti-party they're like yeah we are too we're following the rules we got to disband after the election but like then what's what's the point yeah
Zain: which like
SPEAKER_03: you're like well then what's what's
Zain: after the election
Zain: it it It does, I mean, money was the point, and it allowed a financial aspect to it. But even
Annalise: aspect to it. But even that, there hasn't, okay, that was the point, and maybe that worked in Edmonton, but like in Calgary, they're all pretty close to each other in terms of money. The money advantage
Zain: even that, there hasn't,
Zain: okay, that was the point,
Zain: terms of money. The money advantage is not paid, I agree. It seems like when you look at some of the disclosures, that seems to be the case. Now we'll find out more on
Annalise: on the back end of this thing. But I like how you've answered this, because let's
Zain: on the back end of this thing.
SPEAKER_04: But I like how you've
Zain: you've answered this, because let's close out here, which is, I don't want to go through every council race, but I replayed this story for Henderson the other day. in 2017 i was so focused on the mayor's race uh and of course this was like every other race uh we hit all of council whatever and as i look up on the screen on that night in 2017 i'm like oh thank god and then she won uh we get to celebrate oh what happened to any of the councils every single incumbent that ran one yeah
Annalise: yeah yeah
Annalise: yeah do
Zain: do you think do you think that story plays out here again in calgary uh just based on the simple sleepiness uh of this election or do you feel like any of the incumbents are at real threat um and what what are you kind of as you've also mentioned earlier in this episode this independence streak seems to be one of those driving questions or at least seems to be a not a deciding or driving question maybe that's too much but seems to be a factor of some kind in some of these races so just your broader thoughts on council council incumbents and and where we might land with a few of these things or any notable things you find fascinating on your end yeah
Annalise: i think in terms of incumbents and i have them written down here i think chabot and mclean the
Annalise: the easy conservative wards where they always elect a conservative Terry Wong in seven is interesting. Maybe I'm biased here because I live in seven and I'm in a war seven bubble. But
Zain: I'm
SPEAKER_00: I'm in a war seven bubble.
Zain: bubble. But
Zain: But
Annalise: But I do think he's getting like a run for his money and he's kind of has an interesting strategy and like platforming his seemingly main opponent. But maybe I'm just wishful thinking in seven. Raj
SPEAKER_00: But I
Annalise: and Winus, I don't have a good read on those areas. I think the incumbent advantage would likely help them. Penner in 11 announced really late, right? And I don't, again, I don't know 11 super well. I'm kind of in like an inner city bubble, but she announced that she was running again recently,
SPEAKER_03: that she was running
Annalise: like not that long ago. And I think, okay, let's say five of the six incumbents or six of the six. I actually don't think that matters that much because you have, you need to count to eight, right? Like you need the eight. So who are the other, there who are the new faces around the table right who are the new seven people and what are they like and and what do they believe in and are they part of a party are they not part of a party yeah
Zain: the
Zain: it's it's going to be fascinating to see um who has the best governance or easiest governance pathway who has the worst governance pathway what some of these new faces look like what those previews of of the future look like is there a case where the calgary party produces one or two folks without a mayor's chair? Is there any? I mean, here's the thing that the future of the parties, I mean, we can spend hours discussing, but let's be clear, they have to disband. And if they want to start up again, that's going to be a new thing. But the question is, they may not even be part of the next election. So this could be like, literally a one and done where that Calgary party name brand, website, logo, the flag that they've wrapped themselves around is so temporary that it may never see the light of day again. And same for the Edmonton sort of version of these parties, same for communities first. This
Corey: is there
Corey: This is not
Zain: This is not a thing that we're going to associate. I mean, people are not associating candidates with brands as aggressively other than just to be like, you're part of a party, and I don't like that. But they're not associating themselves with these brands while voting for them. I think the likelihood of them doing so is significantly less, even when those parties leave and be like, I remember that was our community's first candidate that's doing that. And that's the reason why they're doing X, Y, and Z. I
Zain: want to wrap up here with any final thoughts you may have. We've talked almost exclusively about the mayor's race. We talked a bit about council. We talked about the ballot box question. the polling the process uh
Zain: some scenarios we might see on monday night i'm not going to ask you for a prediction because it does genuinely seem close but if you want to give one you can but any final thoughts at least as we as we wrap up yeah
Annalise: yeah i'm not gonna make a prediction maybe there'll be some drama this weekend zane maybe like you maybe something crazy we'll have them this weekend no i don't i don't um no i i i'm gonna be looking at the turnout right like i I think, I think turnout will be really, really interesting. Do our
SPEAKER_00: crazy we'll
SPEAKER_00: we'll have them this weekend no i don't i don't
Annalise: our people coming out? Do they care? Um, we had 46% last time. I, I
SPEAKER_00: had
Annalise: think turnout will be quite low, like in the thirties. Um,
Annalise: Um, yeah, that's, I will state that prediction. I think turnout will be low, but maybe not. Maybe people like coalesce this,
SPEAKER_03: Um, yeah,
Annalise: this weekend and the, the undecideds will decide and they'll share it with their networks. And, And but yeah, no, I think 40. So the 2017 was the highest in 40 years. That was 58%. But that was that.
SPEAKER_00: this weekend and
Zain: that.
Annalise: that. And as you know, like people came out and supported Nancy because there was some polls that made it look really, really close. the
Zain: the threat looks significant that's right and
Annalise: right and so it was like there was something kind of like exciting and motivating if there's nothing i mean short of like a new poll coming out today that shows sharp 10 points ahead i don't
SPEAKER_00: nothing
Zain: nothing i
SPEAKER_00: i
Annalise: don't know how you motivate all of these undecideds to come out so we're dealing with 46 last time in like the covet election i think it's going to be in the 30s which is like abysmal like that's that's bad that's not good um and then i think whoever to your your point at the beginning about like how big their mandate is going to be whoever's in the mayor's chair is not going to have a huge mandate they're going to have like there's a lot of big things that need to happen in the next four years and they're going to have a team that may or may not you know be be with them so buckle
Annalise: buckle up i think it's going to be a really interesting four years
Zain: four years and a very interesting election night and uh a day after election morning you can see annalise on global and that is a wrap on episode 1888 of the strategist my name is zane velji With me, as always, Annalise
Corey: that is a wrap
Corey: Annalise
Corey: Annalise Klingbeil, and we will see you next
Zain: next time.
Corey: time.
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