Zain: This is The Strategist, episode 1887. My name is Zain Velji. With me, as always, he's always been here. He's been here the whole time, and we just wouldn't let him speak in certain episodes. Chris Henderson, how are you, sir?
Zain: I'm
SPEAKER_03: I'm very well, Zain. How are you doing?
Zain: doing? Good, man. Good. Listen, we've unmuted the mic. We've figured out the system. Haxem has done what he's needed to to make this possible, to let you speak. And we're sorry for the fact that we didn't capture any of your insights the last 25 episodes. really sorry about that oh
SPEAKER_03: oh yeah sorry it's no problem i i
SPEAKER_03: should have known but the light was
Zain: was never on yeah that's fine it's it's nothing and then you never
SPEAKER_03: it's it's nothing and then you never said you never said anything i thought i was doing great yeah
Zain: yeah no you weren't um
SPEAKER_03: um here we
Zain: we are uh i want to talk to you about your specialty what i consider your specialty you could tell me otherwise actually as we get started here um we're doing back to back episodes with you tonight and with annalise tomorrow morning to talk about while we are a national podcast we do have a lot of listeners in our our home province of Alberta. And you are, I think, the number one get to talk about municipal politics in Edmonton. We're starting with Edmonton tonight. We'll talk to Annalise tomorrow to talk about the Calgary municipal. So
Zain: I have no agenda. I'm also a Calgarian begrudgingly talking about Edmonton politics, even though some of it, like osmosis, travels down the highway, and I understand some of it. So start with me anywhere you want, and we'll go from there. And of course, we'll get Get to your predictions on what you think happens election night, like what the storylines have been or have not been. Has this election been as sleepy as the one that we're observing in Calgary? Has it not been sleepy in the in beyond the top line sort of thing? So give me start start where you want to start and we'll go from there. But I want to tease out for our listeners in anticipation of what Monday night, what they might expect, what they have seen. give them some sort of talking points as cocktail chatter when they talk to their friends and family on Tuesday morning to act like the most fucking rock stars in the municipal world in Edmonton.
SPEAKER_03: some of it.
SPEAKER_02: act like the most
Zain: So, in
SPEAKER_03: in
SPEAKER_03: Edmonton right now, we have, like, we had a very sleepy race. Okay. Just generally.
SPEAKER_03: People, Edmontonians who are usually a bit late to the
SPEAKER_03: election, they usually sort of tune in in the third or maybe last week in september really really haven't been tuning into this election generally we're expecting a pretty low turnout here but
SPEAKER_03: which is a bit of a shame because
SPEAKER_03: the point that we're at right now is that we are probably in the closest like edmonton doesn't have
SPEAKER_03: races i
SPEAKER_03: mean they all like they seem sort of
SPEAKER_03: close at points but and then they
Zain: they what just like someone just takes over yeah
SPEAKER_03: just like someone just
SPEAKER_03: yeah so
Zain: so
SPEAKER_03: so like
Zain: like talk to me about like your race like talk to me about like ivison because Because from watching from Calgary, that's what's close. Like, we thought it was close. Now, the outcome was it, but it seemed like it was extremely close.
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I mean, I think a lot
SPEAKER_03: lot of observers didn't feel that one was going to be close toward the end.
SPEAKER_03: And it wasn't. It was, I
SPEAKER_03: think, Don won that election in 2013 by 45
SPEAKER_03: 45 points. links and he won the 2017 election by six more than 60 points and uh so he last time won by 20 points and that was that
SPEAKER_03: that was close-ish but we the only close elections we've had in the last 30 years have been in 1995 which was a real mail biter
SPEAKER_03: and 2004 which
SPEAKER_03: which
SPEAKER_02: which was
SPEAKER_03: which was a slightly unexpected like one of the unexpected results
Zain: the unexpected
SPEAKER_02: unexpected
Zain: unexpected
Zain: results yeah it was mandel
SPEAKER_03: mandel right so mandel in 2004 and then bill smith who beat jan
Zain: right
SPEAKER_02: right so mandel in
SPEAKER_03: jan reimer by 2000
SPEAKER_03: and some votes like you know it was like 34 to 30 34.08 to 34.02 it was like it was like nothing um so so we don't we we don't have nail like maybe we have competitive races we often do have competitive races but we don't have nail biters and this one is
SPEAKER_03: a nail-biter like i i've been i've been thinking there's i can't remember if anybody if if
SPEAKER_03: somebody in the in
SPEAKER_03: in the discord wants to to identify the the film for me there's this movie i remember watching when i was a kid and
SPEAKER_03: in the movie there's
SPEAKER_03: like there's a horse race and
SPEAKER_03: this one horse wins because it had the worst teeth and it the teeth crossed the photo street like crossed the photo finish first i
Zain: i think the movie you may not get this if you don't listen to the the podcast chris uh the movie's dave the movie's called dave but
SPEAKER_03: i think the movie you
SPEAKER_03: this if you
Zain: but
SPEAKER_03: but no movies all yeah every movie is we don't know we don't
Zain: we don't know we don't say that this one is yeah this one this one is this one is definitely not dave this one is dave but
SPEAKER_03: yeah this
SPEAKER_03: this one is this one is definitely not dave this
SPEAKER_00: this
SPEAKER_03: but but yeah if anybody could but there's a similar movie that has that similar premise but it it might just be like a candidate here like i'm kind of expecting maybe
Zain: yeah
SPEAKER_03: a 31 28 27 7 and then everybody else 7 uh
SPEAKER_03: result here potentially jesus so you also think like like
Zain: also think like like calgary not to preview where my head's at in calgary you think this is going to be a like a significantly sub 50 mandate for whoever wins i
SPEAKER_03: think i definitely think no matter no matter what i can't see
Zain: no matter what i can't see i i
SPEAKER_02: i
SPEAKER_03: i think even my best projections
SPEAKER_02: projections here
SPEAKER_03: here
SPEAKER_02: here put it in the 40s that's
SPEAKER_03: put it in the 40s that's
SPEAKER_02: that's good
SPEAKER_03: good
SPEAKER_02: good
SPEAKER_03: good yeah it
SPEAKER_02: it gets in the low 40s here okay
SPEAKER_03: okay so
SPEAKER_02: so i
SPEAKER_03: i mean but so he got in so
SPEAKER_03: he got i think 45 last time which was like you know with again we don't most
SPEAKER_02: again we
SPEAKER_03: most most
SPEAKER_02: most
SPEAKER_03: most mayors in edmonton get except in 2004 four in 1995, most mayors got 50
SPEAKER_03: % plus. So
Zain: So the simplest question is, to me, at least the most obvious question, and maybe not so simple to answer is,
Zain: okay, why do we have a close race this time? This is not part of your culture. This is not a... Why is it close? Is it because people who weren't supposed to be good are good? Is it people who are supposed to be bad are underperformed? Give me a sense of the beats, and maybe let's start naming names, in a sense, at least on the mayoral, and then we can get to what the ballot box question is what's happening here but why do you think it's it's close this time it's interesting it's sleepy but it's close it's
SPEAKER_03: what's happening
SPEAKER_03: it's sleepy but it's close and there's a lot of um
SPEAKER_03: through to the proof to the federal election and in april there was a lot of questions about what
SPEAKER_03: the field was even going to be um
SPEAKER_03: um you
SPEAKER_02: you
SPEAKER_03: you
SPEAKER_03: you know a lot of people thought that so he wouldn't would run again and and then maybe he wouldn't run again. I
SPEAKER_03: I mean, Tim Carmel, who is the kid
SPEAKER_03: who's been in this for the longest, announced in November. Yeah.
Zain: Yeah. So
SPEAKER_03: So everybody knew that whoever was going to be running was going to be running against him.
SPEAKER_03: But he –
SPEAKER_03: and then Soggy definitively dropped out when he ran from the Fed. Yeah. And that left a big
SPEAKER_03: hole open.
SPEAKER_03: And people, I think, who were previously not prepared – I don't
SPEAKER_03: don't think Andrew Knack was planning on running for mayor until he understood that Soapy was going to be out of the way. I
SPEAKER_02: I
SPEAKER_03: don't think Michael Walters was planning on running for mayor until he felt like he saw a pretty nice spot in the election that someone needed to fill.
SPEAKER_03: And so the field has come together really
SPEAKER_03: late. um
SPEAKER_03: um even even i think uh rain jaffer like he's not gonna he's not gonna win yeah
Zain: yeah you
SPEAKER_03: you know there i heard rumors about it for months and months and months and then it's sort of he eventually kind of showed up uh everyone's been pretty casual a bit when they decided to get into this race and um and so you haven't had that the normal that kind of
SPEAKER_03: concentrated back and forth where you know candidates announced sort of in a in
SPEAKER_03: in like you You know, one candidate announces at the end of May, one candidate announces at the beginning
SPEAKER_03: beginning of June, and one candidate announces in the middle of June. And then they kind of go at each other for 90
SPEAKER_03: 90 days,
SPEAKER_03: days, 120 days until election day. And it's like there's just been not much of a narrative here.
SPEAKER_03: And most of the news stories in this, you know, like the biggest news story probably about any of the candidates was when Tim Cartmell missed a vote. uh that on on infill which
SPEAKER_00: uh that
SPEAKER_03: is an influential issue uh
SPEAKER_03: at least on this council so you
SPEAKER_03: know like there just hasn't been a lot to report on with this also every
SPEAKER_03: election or media environment
SPEAKER_03: becomes more fragmented like there you
SPEAKER_03: know you might get two
SPEAKER_03: two stories a week really in the in like the paper of record around here about what's going on in the election and and
SPEAKER_03: and uh more More now, but throughout the summer,
SPEAKER_03: summer, there was just no coverage of anything. So people
SPEAKER_03: people just didn't really tune in until very
SPEAKER_03: very late. And I think they are tuning in this week,
SPEAKER_03: which is, I think, good for some campaigns and not good for others.
SPEAKER_03: But yeah,
SPEAKER_03: it's going to be a nail-biter. I think whoever wins is going to win with a
SPEAKER_03: three-point lead and less than 35% of the vote. I
Zain: I want to take advantage of your campaign practitioner experience alongside the fact this is a very tight election. But I want to do that in a second. I want to do that nearly near the end of this thing where we can kind of talk about what sort of effort is needed, what the final days and the short strokes of a campaign, specifically municipal, specifically Edmonton municipal look like. There's no one that I know that will know that better than you. But before we go there, talk to me about a few things that I've been curious about on the mayoral side, and then we'll get to council as well, as I mentioned. So Sohi says, no, I'm out, right? He says, I'm picking up the federal seat. And while he says that, he's like, you know, to be clear, I'm not going to run for mayor. Okay,
SPEAKER_02: the fact this
SPEAKER_02: on the mayoral
Zain: does I've got a question on the progressive side, which is, is there a progressive primary to reprise Sohi? And of course, there's no official one. But what was your intel telling you? Was it was there a lot of people thinking of running or did NAC by default fill that role? Was there enthusiasm to kind of fill that sort of progressive hole, so to speak? I want to kind of understand how Knack came about the genesis story of Knack as like the guy to kind of represent and how were people slow or fast to embrace that? Give me that sort of broader story on the progressive side, because I'm curious. And I've got a similar Cartmel question for you when he announced much earlier on in November. Yeah,
SPEAKER_03: I think that, I think
SPEAKER_03: Andrew Knack was ready to just move on to the next phase of whatever he was moving on to. I think he felt like he had had a pretty good council career and that
SPEAKER_00: I
SPEAKER_03: he didn't want to, he would split a vote. there was there's probably not much of a uh a point of running against sitting mayor hamerjeet so he uh whether no matter how strong hamerjeet so he uh was people will tell you that he wouldn't have won re-election i'm not i'm not so sure about that um
Zain: uh
SPEAKER_00: uh
SPEAKER_03: um but you think so he would have had a path
Zain: you think so he would have had a path especially now seeing where we are like four days away you think so he would have had a path here i
SPEAKER_03: think that if you have been i think that maybe some people have not not loved amarjeet so he's termed as mayor i think it's been a rough time for for uh for edmonton generally i don't think that necessarily falls on so he directly as mayor but mahamarjeet so he's magic uh is that he has been a very good guy
SPEAKER_02: i think
SPEAKER_03: to people for 30 years and he has built up a level of political capital with a lot of very normal people that
SPEAKER_00: and he
SPEAKER_03: you
SPEAKER_03: cannot replicate in an election cycle right
SPEAKER_03: like he has just been a good dude to so many people for so long that
SPEAKER_03: thing
SPEAKER_03: you know he just he just comes with a hundred thousand votes in his pocket or 50
SPEAKER_02: 50
SPEAKER_03: 50 000 votes in his pocket or whatever it is just by appearing on the ballot yeah
Zain: is just by appearing on the ballot yeah
SPEAKER_03: people just people
SPEAKER_03: just like him and that you know i think there's a bit of a narrative that like this council or or
SPEAKER_03: amarjeet so he's not done had a had a great turn um i think that's kind of inside baseball uh for you know people like you and and i to to hear about but i think like you know if you own a landscaping company and in ellerslie uh
SPEAKER_03: you
SPEAKER_03: you know you might you might really like emma jeet so you might be proud of of the
SPEAKER_03: the chance to re-elect the eventings so the first time to re-elect a south asian mayor like that i think that he would have had some some reasonable juice to going into this uh this this election he might have lost but but
SPEAKER_03: but i wouldn't i would never have counted him out and
Zain: but i wouldn't i would never
Zain: and i think i think and this is obviously not a perfect parallel but jyoti gandak still in the game in calgary you
Zain: know and if she's probably was more down and out than so he has it related to south asian incumbents if we want to put that final point on it but straight up right like but but you know the jyoti gandak literally had a fucking recall petition and here she is flirting with it's first and second in the polls yeah
SPEAKER_03: she's
SPEAKER_00: but straight up
SPEAKER_02: up right like
SPEAKER_00: like but
SPEAKER_03: and like but i feel like sometimes the most calvary thing to do is to just skirt a right go from third to
SPEAKER_03: first skirting up the middle yeah i
Zain: yeah i mean that's the story that's arguably the bronconia story it's been the story for in certain cases i guess it was a mandel story in that close one in 04 um which is certainly partially an edmonton thing to do okay so so so he like so he and and and
SPEAKER_03: i mean that's the story that's
SPEAKER_00: partially an
Zain: and before i get there like talk to me about the and
Zain: and i'm talking about knack but i'm almost talking about the broader sort of progressive movement like the 21 council you guys elected was seen as being more progressive tell me if i'm wrong uh with so he at the helm with counselors like like jans and others uh do you feel like you know when so he left or when knack was trying to and you know whoever's trying to take his place knack or others that there's a bit of a stain on progressivism and people were chilling to wanting to fill that that hole or was there enthusiasm to kind of say if
Zain: i do this i
Zain: could be mayor um
SPEAKER_03: i think that people
SPEAKER_03: look at this
SPEAKER_03: looked at
SPEAKER_03: at this council is maybe just a little bit less pragmatic than a normal council i'm not sure people have identified it as like a loony left council interesting
Zain: interesting so that that's not been the label per se i
SPEAKER_03: that's not been the label per
SPEAKER_03: mean i don't know like again there's a there's a difference between people that are
SPEAKER_02: are sort of involved in yes the
SPEAKER_03: the committee committees and groups and and
SPEAKER_03: like clubs at the city and then there are people like
SPEAKER_03: the if
SPEAKER_03: you want to be mayor of edmonton you got to get between 90 000 and 140 000 votes uh
SPEAKER_03: that's a lot of people out on the out on the edge of the city and people that never go downtown and like
SPEAKER_03: like you got to convince a lot of very normal people that you're the an electable person yeah
SPEAKER_02: yeah um
SPEAKER_03: um so so and i don't think that those people necessarily think in like left right starkly political terms and yeah i think they They've seen, maybe scratched their head in a few things this council's done, but they've also, you know, like when they email Ashley Salvador and Mort Métis, she emails them back.
Zain: And I
SPEAKER_03: And I think they care about that more than whether
SPEAKER_03: whether she's sort of like an NDP-coded candidate or whether she is or not. So
Zain: So less of a defining issue. Okay. So take me to the political genesis story of NAC in this cycle. Does he emerge as the only one or is there others that wanted that mantle? do you feel like there's others even on the final ballot that that kind of are trying to carry that that mantle a bit and i tip at walters to kind of get a sense of where he's standing i
SPEAKER_03: of a defining issue. Okay.
SPEAKER_03: mean i think knack was the i
SPEAKER_02: think knack presented himself as sort of
SPEAKER_03: of the most natural like
SPEAKER_03: choice for the kind of people that get elected mayor in edmonton yeah he's he's
SPEAKER_03: he's not really
SPEAKER_03: really identifiably left he's not really identifiably right like on on absolutely everything he's
SPEAKER_03: he's you know he's one of these people that likes to show up and and listen
SPEAKER_03: listen to as many people as he can and uh
SPEAKER_03: uh but i don't think that there was a but he but he's undoubtedly a little more progressive than like
SPEAKER_03: like if i had to put him on a place on the on the on the spectrum i put him grabbing a progressive spot but
SPEAKER_03: but but
SPEAKER_03: i don't think anyone was fighting him for that spot i
SPEAKER_03: i don't really know if anybody really wanted to be mayor i
SPEAKER_02: i think
SPEAKER_03: think i
SPEAKER_03: think that it like you know i think it is i think being on city council in any major city uh big medium size or big city is a shitty job a really shitty job right now
SPEAKER_03: and uh and
SPEAKER_03: i i'm not sure that a whole lot of people wanted to want to take that job like virtually nobody from the private sector wanted to take that job yeah
SPEAKER_03: yeah and and so it's you're left to sort of you're
SPEAKER_03: you're left with sort of other counselors and people that used to be counselors isn't
Zain: isn't that interesting though i think that's such a unique and
SPEAKER_03: unique and
SPEAKER_03: and interesting insight that
Zain: that
SPEAKER_03: that
Zain: that
SPEAKER_03: that
Zain: that that no like outside of this omar Mohammed, who I want to talk about, who's the independent pediatric dentist who's kind of like quit his business to run for mayor. Seems like a quasi-meme candidate, but like is getting double digits, low double digits in some of these polls and is starting to, you know, who knows where his vote cratered to or where his vote exists. There's an interesting sort of question I have for you there. But your insight regarding A, the class, right? So let me just walk folks through, right? You've got Andrew Dacko you've mentioned. He's the incumbent councillor since 2013. Cartmel, also an incumbent councillor. He's also representing a political party, which we'll get to in a second, from 2017. And then you said formers. That's right. Former councillor Michael Walters, former Ward 7 councillor Tony Caterina, former MP Raheem Jaffer, and then, of course, the aforementioned Omar Mohamed, the independents. That's your list, folks. folks like that to your point like no one kind of said you know it's it's a button up business time former chamber chair stepping up i'm not i don't have a name in mind i'm just kind of making that sort of general cup as a profile none of those people said it's time for me to kind of do it so i think that's a very unique insight but i also think the other one is that no
SPEAKER_03: councillor Michael
SPEAKER_02: Michael
SPEAKER_03: like that to your point like
SPEAKER_03: that sort of general
Zain: one wants to be mayor and i feel like that's similar to what's happening in calgary here too carter kind of put it in a different way she's like no one is running to win and
Zain: if no one is seeming like like running to win i wonder if that's why we also have a sleepy election not just because the field was gelled late or just because you know people were deciding to see what so he did or because like name recognition is so hard to get between media all of those things are true but
Zain: my theory is also in addition just to get you to consider this is that people want you to want them in a sense right like people want you to show that you care for them and if you have a race where a lot of people are
Zain: like you know running for mayor but not like running for mayor not like aggressively wanting to be mayor with a hopeful propositional exciting future message i think the elector kind of gets that that message too and and acts accordingly and tell me if there's holes in that theory i acknowledge so react to that theory for a second so
SPEAKER_03: i think maybe this election is is is the shape that it's in like i think i think you're onto something there but i think the the main reason that it's in the shape that it's in is because there's almost no ballot question yeah
Zain: yeah let's i want to talk like there's not really
SPEAKER_03: talk like there's not really a like not really a strong identifiable not all the candidates are
SPEAKER_02: are
SPEAKER_03: are
SPEAKER_02: are
SPEAKER_03: are like
SPEAKER_02: like i'm
SPEAKER_03: sure i'll get a bunch of text messages from the candidates campaign managers saying like what the fuck are you talking about no
SPEAKER_02: about no it's about the province or or it's about infills or whatever
SPEAKER_03: the province
Zain: province or or it's about infills or whatever yeah yeah for sure but um
SPEAKER_03: whatever yeah yeah for sure but um but
SPEAKER_03: the
SPEAKER_03: the uh
SPEAKER_03: it's it's not that there's no ballot question but there also there's nothing really for us
SPEAKER_03: to respond to like there's no there's no challenge really facing them like eggs not existential but there's no like unique challenge really facing us that we want to respond to so let me let me take you through that just a bit yeah 2021
Zain: yeah 2021
SPEAKER_03: 2021 energy so he gets elected on the tail end of i think what people forget uh
SPEAKER_03: as being i think the second wave of covid which was worse
SPEAKER_02: which was worse than the first like i
SPEAKER_03: i mean i you know people were not knocking on doors it was and
SPEAKER_03: and you know certainly if they were knocking on doors people weren't answering them people were wearing masks it was like it was a it was a it was a difficult time and i think people were frightened and i think people wanted a mayor that was going to be um it was going to be more
SPEAKER_02: frightened and
SPEAKER_02: and
SPEAKER_03: socially conscious uh conscience uh conscious about what he or what they were uh how they were going to run the city and i think it was an easy way to turn to ever jade so he i truly believe that uh you know for all
SPEAKER_03: all the um for
SPEAKER_03: some of the criticism that ever jade so he got i think he was the right mayor for this term i think that willie edmonton would be a more cynical and a less compassionate place if it worked for him but he really because he really gives a shit about everybody and like making sure that people that are kind of often ignored are included in the process or are at least thought about by somebody at city hall i think that's what we needed in 2021 in 2023 you know uh you
Zain: a less compassionate
SPEAKER_03: know it was dawn versus karen levici really and then when you look back on it karen
SPEAKER_03: karen levici is a very good candidate a very good counselor and in 2010 if she had run for mayor she very well may have been elected but in 2013 edmonton was just picking up it's like that
SPEAKER_03: you know like we were really kind of like in a moment there and we were becoming like that was kind of our moment that we were becoming like a big city where where things were really happening and i think people wanted people had to look at they looked at the electorate and they figured well i want their like the face of a new generation so to to speak to be the the mayor of this like new new city that you know that's about to have a moment uh
SPEAKER_03: steven mandel was a really interesting uh choice because i think it was sort of the genesis of like the the uh the
SPEAKER_03: sort of the the larval stage of the of the iverson win was you
SPEAKER_03: you know somebody that was gonna that
SPEAKER_03: that uh was tired of mediocrity right
Zain: right or
SPEAKER_03: or was tired of boosterism you know somebody that was a bit you
SPEAKER_03: know a bit real a bit more gritty and so that people elected steven mandel um
SPEAKER_03: um you know like they had a choice between mandel or bill smith who was like by all means like a pretty like
SPEAKER_03: pretty paving candidate and then mike nickel who was like the city's broken and everything sucks well but you know mandel said hey man we can build some stuff here like
SPEAKER_03: let's stop fucking around and let's build some stuff and so people like steve mandel He was a very successful mayor. He
SPEAKER_03: brought Edmonton to a point where they were having a moment. Then they decided, great, we have a moment. Let's hire
SPEAKER_03: Don
SPEAKER_03: Iveson to be mayor. And then when they got to a point where we
SPEAKER_03: were in some compassionate
SPEAKER_03: trouble, they hired Emergy Soki. And there's just nothing like that in
SPEAKER_03: this election.
SPEAKER_03: People are upset about things, but there's not a
SPEAKER_02: People
SPEAKER_02: are
Zain: are upset
SPEAKER_03: challenge to respond to here. Do
Zain: Do you do you feel like there was meat
Zain: on the table or was there meat on the bone, I guess? Or like was there was there was
Zain: there a chance for someone to engineer that question in this election around?
Zain: And my question is like those questions can be engineered, of course, like ballot box questions, but also
SPEAKER_03: And my question is like
Zain: give me a sense of like where Edmonton's headspace is. like what do we need to know about edmonton like political culture i appreciate the the lesson around the lack of close races but you know one one aspect of calgary political culture that i know is that we often elect mayors to respond to what's happening at
SPEAKER_02: at the provincial level more
Zain: more liberal a little bit more pragmatic a little bit more of a surprise at least when you know calgary the cliche that oh this person could be mayor we've had that so many times in a row that like nenshu was an extension of that he wasn't the definition of it right so what do i need to know about the edmonton political culture here like do you guys vote on big things can you you vote on like can you have was there ever a chance that this was going to be an infill election like i know some people trying to engineer it as such but was it ever a chance that was going to be it like give me give me a sense of what i need to know there well
Zain: i think if you ask certain people again
SPEAKER_03: again like that kind of like people
SPEAKER_03: like me what
SPEAKER_03: the election is
SPEAKER_03: is about or
SPEAKER_03: or people that own a business downtown that
SPEAKER_03: that like a lot of them will say this is an infill election and that is a very like i said i called it an influential topic earlier because it's an influential topic but it's not necessarily an important one like 200
SPEAKER_03: 200 000 people have arrived in the city in the last four years and most of them don't live in a neighborhood that's having infill problems right
Zain: right
SPEAKER_03: right it's just like it it's really important to a series of neighborhoods it's like the number one issue and in a bunch of neighborhoods and it's a bunch of neighborhoods where a lot of people with microphones and and like and and influence live and and that's
SPEAKER_02: and and that's that's great like that that's fine it's not
SPEAKER_03: it's not not an issue there but it's just i don't think really a really significant city-wide issue uh any more than like 15 minute cities are
SPEAKER_02: are
SPEAKER_03: are so but the political culture here i think
SPEAKER_02: so
SPEAKER_03: is i
SPEAKER_03: would say and when
SPEAKER_03: we like we don't we don't necessarily we don't uh hire
SPEAKER_03: hire or say we don't elect mayors to fight the province uh
SPEAKER_02: uh we
SPEAKER_03: we we want to see that you've got skills
SPEAKER_02: skills
SPEAKER_03: skills
SPEAKER_02: skills
SPEAKER_03: skills
SPEAKER_02: skills
SPEAKER_03: skills to to
SPEAKER_02: to do that but
SPEAKER_03: but
SPEAKER_02: but i would
SPEAKER_03: would say that edmontonians
SPEAKER_02: edmontonians tend
SPEAKER_03: tend
SPEAKER_03: to vote for the
SPEAKER_03: uh
SPEAKER_03: and
SPEAKER_03: i might you know i think don might kill me for saying this but uh
SPEAKER_03: mildly ambitious candidates mildly
Zain: mildly
Zain: mildly ambitious mildly ambitious yeah like
SPEAKER_03: mildly ambitious yeah like
SPEAKER_03: like they want you to have some ambition but they don't want you like they don't like we don't respond well to crazy promises we don't respond well to i can fix everything uh i think what we they respond well to is what mac is he's actually saying in this election in this final stretch which is that edmonton is a great city yeah
Zain: yeah and
SPEAKER_03: and it it can be better we
SPEAKER_03: we can make it better whereas i think
SPEAKER_03: cartmel and i think maybe increasingly walters and certainly cartmel saying the city's broken and i can fix it yes
Zain: yes um
SPEAKER_03: um and i don't think people respond well to that uh and um i think michael walters's message is a little bit more nuanced than that i think he's saying there
SPEAKER_03: are some persistent issues here and i've i've got
SPEAKER_03: a proven track record of how addressing those issues um
SPEAKER_03: um and uh and if i'm giving you know if i'm given an opportunity to be mayor i can do i can do even better uh and then uh you know i think regime jaffer's campaign is like edmonton sucks and let's
SPEAKER_03: let's like you know let's go back like it's back to basics message right right uh and then people keep saying like nobody wants to go back to basics no like
SPEAKER_03: no one like you say back to basics what you're basically saying is less services less response like less municipal responsibility uh
SPEAKER_03: uh and and like maybe you'll get lower taxes in return but probably not like no everybody knows that that's not not a real thing also
SPEAKER_03: also this is a very fiscally liberal town even
Zain: even
SPEAKER_03: even even like people are they
SPEAKER_03: taxes have always been the biggest issue for like 30 elections in a row yeah yeah
Zain: yeah
SPEAKER_03: yeah
Zain: yeah
SPEAKER_03: yeah you know you ask everybody it's taxes too high taxes too high taxes too high if you're a candidate all you have to say all you really need to say is i'm going to treat your tax money better i'm going to find ways to you know
SPEAKER_03: get
SPEAKER_03: more out of the taxes that you pay and maybe i'll try and lower them a little bit but like nobody really i don't think anybody really buys that and no one's put forward a plan that can say that this This is something that they absolutely could do. Running
SPEAKER_02: buys
SPEAKER_02: Running
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Zain: it's not a housing election. It's not like Edmonton's next rung on the big boy, big city ladder election, right? What do we want to be? It's not an existential, we've got two paths that have been carved out for us sort of thing, which kind of brings me to Cartmel. So
SPEAKER_02: want to be?
Zain: this is the former councillor, 2017. He's running as head of a party. Was he always part of this party? Did he start and come out in this election? I mean, of course, he wasn't previously, but did he lead this party? Did he soft shoe into this party? And then give me a sense of how Edmontonians are receiving the one guy, if I'm not mistaken, who's part of a party and every other candidate I've listed as an independent. Is this independent party thing a factor? And give me the Cartmel story here in broad sense. I know I've asked you like six questions here, but lay it on me on the Cartmel side. i
SPEAKER_03: this is the former
SPEAKER_03: wouldn't say that the parties are
SPEAKER_03: taking off like wildfire um
Zain: um
SPEAKER_03: um
Zain: um
SPEAKER_03: um
Zain: um are
SPEAKER_03: are
Zain: are
SPEAKER_03: are
Zain: are you being diplomatic or do you do you actually mean like parties are liability like i think it's important to like get a sense of it from your perspective i
SPEAKER_03: diplomatic or
SPEAKER_03: your perspective i
SPEAKER_03: think it sort of remains to be seen whether are there a liability but i you know i
Zain: are there a liability
SPEAKER_03: don't think they're i
SPEAKER_03: don't think they're helping i think that i think that generally the parties were put together as a fundraising apparatus and data collection apparatus yes um
Zain: yes um
SPEAKER_03: um and i'm
SPEAKER_03: i'm
SPEAKER_03: i'm not sure that that's worked all that well uh i i don't see a ton in the way of signals i mean maybe monday night i might be completely wrong i have no insight into the dashboards of any of these campaigns so uh but it doesn't really feel like uh
SPEAKER_00: so uh
SPEAKER_03: uh you know i'm not i'm not seeing uh you know i'm not seeing any reason to believe that like the better edited party is like really taking a city by storm and really resonating with people people uh in some in some ways it looks like it's doing well in some ways but they look like they're absolutely fighting for their life um
SPEAKER_03: um and i think
SPEAKER_03: think with carmel i
SPEAKER_03: mean he's been at this for a year he will spend more
SPEAKER_03: more money than
SPEAKER_03: than any candidate in this city's history on a mayoral campaign really and actually on any
Zain: on a mayoral
SPEAKER_03: any campaign uh a municipal campaign in the city you think
Zain: you think it hits like seven digits like is that what you're oh oh yeah it's definitely
SPEAKER_03: definitely
Zain: definitely going
SPEAKER_03: going to go past seven digits wow and i don't
SPEAKER_03: don't think anybody's ever even hit 900k um
SPEAKER_03: but he he was at eight he was at 8 45 at the end of july so he must be in uh you
SPEAKER_03: know you know just but at least another 150
Zain: know you know just but at least another 150 would be added to even the october month let alone yeah
SPEAKER_03: yeah i mean you can like however and you you know it's probably even more than that after yeah like depending on how you want to treat up the party money but uh Because, you know, the parking money puts him on a
SPEAKER_02: yeah
Zain: yeah like
SPEAKER_02: like
SPEAKER_03: lot of
SPEAKER_03: large signs, on a lot of candidates' large signs. But, I mean, if I want to be totally frank about this, the
SPEAKER_03: Carmel campaign at more
SPEAKER_03: than a million dollars has to win
SPEAKER_03: if the Carmel campaign doesn't with
SPEAKER_03: with Moreland.
SPEAKER_03: Moreland.
SPEAKER_03: Moreland. And it's not just that, like... Just
Zain: Just to be clear, when you say it has to win, you're like, if it doesn't win, it's a big
Zain: big deal that it doesn't win. It's a historic level deal that it doesn't win.
Zain: I don't want to put words in your mouth, but is that what you're trying to say? I mean, it's
Zain: it's the biggest.
SPEAKER_03: It'll be, I think, the most embarrassing election defeat of
SPEAKER_03: of all time in
SPEAKER_02: in
SPEAKER_03: in Edmonton.
SPEAKER_02: Edmonton.
SPEAKER_03: Edmonton. In Edmonton. I mean, yeah,
SPEAKER_03: yeah, I mean, when
SPEAKER_03: when I'm in
SPEAKER_03: in 2013, I was in the league. But to be
Zain: I
Zain: I was in the league. But to be clear, not because Cartmel was a sure thing, though, right?
SPEAKER_03: because Cartmel
Zain: right? It's not like Cartmel was like up in the polls by 30 points and like someone caught him and beat him by two on election night. Just to be clear for everyone listening and you and I as well, it's not because of that narrative, right? We think of embarrassing election losses on the, oh my God, like Polyev is a good example. How did you fuck this up, buddy? This was going to be yours. We were giving it to you. You'd all but were the prime minister of this country. It's not on those terms. I just want to be clear. It's just you're saying it because of how big, robust the spend was and how much of a flame it could ultimately end up being. Well,
SPEAKER_02: and I as well,
SPEAKER_02: embarrassing election
SPEAKER_00: election
SPEAKER_03: could ultimately
SPEAKER_03: it just, like, so in 2013, Iverson beat Libovici three votes, like, three
SPEAKER_03: three
SPEAKER_03: three votes to one. Yep.
Zain: Yep.
SPEAKER_03: And he, you know, I mean, I ran the Iverson campaign, so Weaver had spent,
SPEAKER_03: I believe the Libovici campaign spent somewhere in the neighborhood of $880,000. Yep.
SPEAKER_00: Yep.
SPEAKER_03: And Iverson
SPEAKER_03: Iverson raised $618,000. So, like, there's a delta there, but
SPEAKER_03: not a massive one, right? After half a million dollars or after $300,000, it's kind of a lot.
SPEAKER_02: After half
SPEAKER_03: Nobody else has
SPEAKER_03: even close to the kind of money that... Ender Nack doesn't have
SPEAKER_03: maybe as a quarter million dollars.
Zain: And
SPEAKER_03: And he, I think, is probably... If I had to bet money,
SPEAKER_03: I
SPEAKER_03: I would bet that he's going to win on Monday.
SPEAKER_03: Okay,
Zain: Okay, yeah. Interesting. And if he does... He might do it less than $300,000 or $400,000 dollars ultimately yeah
SPEAKER_03: yeah.
SPEAKER_03: And if he does... He might do it less than $300,000 or $400
SPEAKER_03: yeah yeah that that that is very like that's a very real possibility he's having a
SPEAKER_03: very good end of the end of his campaign is like really hitting in stride and
SPEAKER_03: i think i've
SPEAKER_03: i've you know like i think the way the other candidates are are acting i
SPEAKER_03: mean uh tim carmel put out an ad or put out on social media post yesterday saying hey
SPEAKER_03: like every vote for For anybody but me is a vote for Andrew Mack, which,
Zain: which,
SPEAKER_03: which, you know, like,
SPEAKER_03: you
SPEAKER_03: know, that's that's
SPEAKER_03: not the kind of ad that you run in
SPEAKER_03: the last week going
SPEAKER_03: going
SPEAKER_03: into a sure thing victory.
SPEAKER_02: Now, that might that might just be the campaign, the campaign
SPEAKER_03: campaign being cautious. Yeah, sure. But but that's like that's not an endgame message of what you're trying
Zain: an endgame message of what you're trying to say, right? Like that's not an effect. I don't I don't
SPEAKER_03: I don't I don't think that's an endgame message. I think that that's not a good closing message. I think NAC's closing messages are, you
SPEAKER_03: know, whatever you feel about their policy
SPEAKER_03: policy
SPEAKER_03: policy proposals in them or the platform around them, they are confident.
SPEAKER_03: confident.
SPEAKER_03: And they might just be running a campaign without thinking about anybody else and just we run whatever campaign we run and we win
SPEAKER_03: win or lose. But I think, you know,
SPEAKER_03: the Cartmill campaign and the Better Edmonton campaign have spent a ton of money at this point. And I
SPEAKER_03: don't
SPEAKER_03: think they've ever been more –
SPEAKER_03: they've led a couple of polls, but they've never led a couple of polls over 20.
SPEAKER_03: And they should be – they
SPEAKER_03: they really should have walked away with this, and they didn't. So
Zain: So you've got an election, which was sleepy, but tight, that's starting to show some space, that's trying to show some distance between NAC, at least in one Janet Brown poll that I believe you're alluding to, which was a 15, 20 point lead somewhere in that neighborhood for NAC. But would you be surprised if Cartmel wins on Monday? I
Zain: wouldn't
SPEAKER_03: wouldn't be surprised if he won. I mean, he's taken out two
SPEAKER_03: thirds of all the ad space in this entire election.
Zain: So,
SPEAKER_03: So, you know, like, you know, I said a little bit earlier, like, you know, one candidate has $400,000 and the other one has
SPEAKER_03: $700,000. It's like, you know, that hundreds
SPEAKER_03: of thousands of dollars is a lot of money and you can make a real campaign out of that and you can reach a lot of people. And if you spend that $400,000 properly and the other people don't spend their money very well, then you're going to get
SPEAKER_03: you're
SPEAKER_03: going to get you might get a good result on election night. But that might not be true at like one point one million. And I mean, I think Carmel's probably spent in the last month alone, probably in the neighborhood of twenty to thirty thousand dollars on Meta. Right.
SPEAKER_03: Right. And that's just like that's just one head platform. Yeah,
SPEAKER_02: Yeah,
Zain: Yeah, yeah,
SPEAKER_03: yeah,
SPEAKER_03: yeah. Yeah.
SPEAKER_03: Interesting, not as much as Dr.
SPEAKER_02: Dr.
SPEAKER_03: Omar Mohamed.
SPEAKER_03: Mohamed. Yeah,
Zain: Yeah, I want to talk about that guy in a sec. But,
SPEAKER_03: I want to talk about that guy in a sec. But, you
Zain: But,
SPEAKER_03: know, I
SPEAKER_03: think the NAC campaign was slow to start,
SPEAKER_03: and I think they kind
SPEAKER_03: of took stock of what they had, which was I think, you know, a good
SPEAKER_03: social media presence for a candidate, a guy who's been responding to people diligently and door-knocking for 12 years, and
SPEAKER_03: uh and
SPEAKER_03: and you know like a bunch of volunteers that wanted to do some door knocking and then he and i think he like let has leveraged that as he got a little bit of money and scaled that to to turn into a bit of a machine whereas i think the like quite frankly that a campaign with as much cash as the carmel campaign has had to pretty much buy everything that it's done
SPEAKER_03: so
Zain: so the signs the services the everything it's it's it's yeah like yeah yeah yeah i
SPEAKER_03: so the signs
SPEAKER_03: it's yeah like yeah yeah
SPEAKER_03: i mean when you have i
SPEAKER_03: i mean I mean, they went into 2025 with $450,000. And
SPEAKER_03: when you have money, you solve problems with money. When you don't have money, you solve problems with what you got. Yeah,
Zain: Yeah, with sweat equity, ingenuity. Yeah, and down the stretch. Higher levels of engagement. Right.
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, with
SPEAKER_03: equity, ingenuity. Yeah, and down the stretch. Higher levels of engagement. Right.
Zain: Right.
SPEAKER_03: Exactly. And when you get money behind a system that was built with sweat
SPEAKER_02: sweat equity, that's
SPEAKER_03: that's
SPEAKER_03: that's easier to leverage into like a full scale system than when
SPEAKER_03: you've
SPEAKER_03: you've got to pay cash for everything. thing does
Zain: does does anyone else factor in this election jaffer walters or does anyone play spoiler in your mind like if it's close to any one of these other folks if they're not going to outright win do you feel like they have a chance collectively or individually to play spoiler for for one of one of these candidates in a sense what's your read there uh both in terms of can anyone else win and
Zain: and if not what is the role these other candidates are are bound to play on election night at least how you read it so
SPEAKER_03: i think walters uh has
SPEAKER_03: run a fairly compelling campaign he's certainly run a campaign on his on
SPEAKER_03: on his strengths and on his issues which
SPEAKER_02: which
SPEAKER_03: which is a good which is a great place for a camp like you know like
SPEAKER_03: he's he's running on what he's passionate about uh i just didn't have enough i think he just came in a little too late for that kind of campaign to to pick up pace i didn't think so at the time and then i think i've been kind
SPEAKER_03: of It
SPEAKER_03: turned out that that was the case, that he just didn't
SPEAKER_03: have enough runway to make a dent. I
SPEAKER_03: I think he splits his voters split.
SPEAKER_03: I would be hesitant to say who I think he
SPEAKER_03: would
SPEAKER_03: take away from him. Yeah, who he helps, he might take from Mack. But he's not going to win.
Zain: Yeah, who
SPEAKER_02: going
Zain: going to win.
SPEAKER_03: And, you
SPEAKER_03: know, I said earlier that I thought it was going to be like 20 or 31, 28, 27.
SPEAKER_03: Yeah,
Zain: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Like that close at the time. you know like
SPEAKER_03: that close at the time. you know like that but yeah that close at the top heat so like i don't think it's totally out of the realm of possibility but i think just based on the way that i think i'm seeing things move i i don't think that it is i
SPEAKER_02: don't
SPEAKER_03: i don't think that he can he can make it i think one
SPEAKER_03: one of the interesting things uh about what's going on is um
SPEAKER_03: um uh
SPEAKER_03: uh is
SPEAKER_03: that
SPEAKER_03: dr omar muhammad might
SPEAKER_03: be a good representation representation of the fucking you vote so
SPEAKER_03: so
Zain: so this guy let me just add a bit of context i'm going to give you my explanation of this guy so middle-aged pediatric dentist like shoulder length hair right like auctioneer uh he's got a personality i think charisma might be a bit too far to kind of classify it although charisma is in the eye of the beholder so i'll let others think about that and his strategy seems to be very much i'm
SPEAKER_03: this guy let me just add a bit
SPEAKER_03: to give you my
SPEAKER_03: this guy
SPEAKER_00: guy
Zain: doing he's got a compelling life story like growing up in like you know uh very trying circumstances being a successful pediatric pediatric dentist like and then saying i'm devoting my time and energy to become mayor and he's got he's
Zain: got something like he's got you know
SPEAKER_03: you know what i mean like i and
Zain: and he's doing zoron style social media videos they're not as slick they're not as compelling they're not as like you know universally endearing as that campaign's materials and you know how could be i think that's a very different candidate and it's a very different episode for you and i to talk about zoron but he's trying to take on that social media sort of punch through and i'll give him credit he's punched through like why do i know this guy's name i should not know this guy's name so
SPEAKER_03: he's doing zoron
SPEAKER_02: zoron
SPEAKER_03: i'll i'll give him credit for a couple of things uh
SPEAKER_03: one
SPEAKER_03: he's got a good message like sorry he's got a sorry i don't know if it's good message he's got a easily
SPEAKER_02: like sorry he's
SPEAKER_03: easily recognizable message and that message is fuck
SPEAKER_03: these guys yeah
Zain: yeah they
SPEAKER_03: they got us into this mess give
SPEAKER_03: give somebody else all these formers and all the
Zain: and all the former cows all these formers and currents
SPEAKER_03: all these formers and currents get rid
Zain: currents
Zain: currents get rid of these right and it's easy when everyone Everyone else wears one of those two titles.
SPEAKER_03: when everyone Everyone else wears one
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, exactly. And he's like, look, I'm a total outsider here, and who can articulate some
SPEAKER_03: some good
SPEAKER_03: good
SPEAKER_03: municipal ideas, give
SPEAKER_03: me a shot.
SPEAKER_03: And he's gotten smarter over the course of the election, right? He started out with this completely
SPEAKER_03: completely cringe rap. I think I missed
Zain: I think I missed that. Yeah.
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
Zain: Yeah.
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, it was not good.
SPEAKER_00: but
SPEAKER_03: he but then he's moved to these like videos
SPEAKER_03: videos that you
SPEAKER_03: know like i think are a little stronger for for his particular personality so uh
SPEAKER_03: and i think are like i think if you are really like if you gotta vote the
SPEAKER_03: the other thing is like the vote like
SPEAKER_03: like we're looking at a long order turn right here so i think all this like talk about undecideds like
SPEAKER_03: like well how which way are the undecideds going to swing the undecideds are going to swing to
SPEAKER_03: netflix and they're going to spend and, like, they're not going to go, right? They're not going to vote.
SPEAKER_02: They're
Zain: They're not
SPEAKER_02: not
SPEAKER_03: I think a lot of people made up their mind and they voted in advance voting, I guess, this time. Even though turnout was down significantly
Zain: Even though turnout was down significantly there, right?
SPEAKER_03: I think turnout was apparently up in
SPEAKER_03: absolute terms for advance voting. Oh, okay, okay. I'm sorry for, yeah, thanks for the correction,
Zain: advance voting. Oh, okay, okay. I'm sorry for, yeah, thanks for the correction,
Zain: correction, yeah.
SPEAKER_03: But
SPEAKER_03: But every year, every election, more people voted in advance in Edmonton.
Zain: in advance
Zain: advance in Edmonton. But when we look at the mayoral, like, I do want to highlight a thing you said earlier. Like, this could be 90 to 140. 140 like 140 000 votes at the top end and i think it's gonna be significantly less than that that
SPEAKER_03: less than
Zain: that potentially decides who becomes mayor here like that's a lot but also that's not a lot you know what i mean like maybe maybe maybe 80 maybe 80 like 80 could be the floor here 80
SPEAKER_02: like maybe
SPEAKER_02: maybe 80 like
SPEAKER_02: here
Zain: 80 000
SPEAKER_02: 000
Zain: 000 people is
SPEAKER_02: people
Zain: is often like a
Zain: a riding you
Zain: know what i mean like from a federal it's like it's the and not not the voters and not how many people show up but it's the size of a riding like so you can have deep deep dominance with a particular type of group or a former councillor. Like there's all these interesting dynamics in a first past the post election that I think municipal plays out because of that low voter turnout and frankly, that relatively low number to
Zain: need it to become mayor. So you're not, okay, you're not putting any of these other folks in the winners category. So help me, let
SPEAKER_03: need it to
Zain: let me go through this little exercise with you then, okay? Okay.
Zain: If Cartmell wins on election night, why? If
SPEAKER_03: Cartmell wins on election night, it's because he had the most money. You
Zain: You think money, and you think it's a testament to like a three to one or four to one spend?
SPEAKER_03: money, and you think it's
SPEAKER_03: or four to
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, four or five to one spend where you're just name recognition the shootout at the place. I mean, Tim Cartmell is a very nice guy,
Zain: place.
SPEAKER_03: and he's been, I think, a pretty good counselor. But
SPEAKER_03: quite frankly, I think he's kind of run against his record in some instances. and i think that he's you know like he's made some fairly significant mistakes and and
SPEAKER_03: he is you
SPEAKER_03: know like i think he's just positioning using that great and i think that that
SPEAKER_03: more or less bears out in uh in
SPEAKER_03: where we're sitting right now like he should not be there should not be we should not be talking about is
SPEAKER_03: it going to be knack or is it going to be carmel or could it maybe be walters we
SPEAKER_03: we should be saying to
SPEAKER_03: carmel was
SPEAKER_03: out first had an
SPEAKER_03: unfathomable amount of money and
SPEAKER_03: convinced everybody to like
SPEAKER_03: convinced everybody to vote for him pretty early with like a you know i just it how he has all the money how could he lose is how what i would on
Zain: what i would on
SPEAKER_03: on election night i'm gonna say are you writing
Zain: say are you writing that story in your mind and and in other places well i
SPEAKER_03: in your mind and and
SPEAKER_03: places well i i'm gonna say he had all all the money how can he lose it's just a matter of what intonation i i
SPEAKER_03: i use it's either he had all the money how could he lose or it's he had all the money how could he lose
SPEAKER_02: money
SPEAKER_02: money how
SPEAKER_02: lose right
SPEAKER_03: right like so
SPEAKER_03: so you know he's either uh and
SPEAKER_03: uh so yeah that that's i think why i mean i don't think his message is
SPEAKER_03: broadly broadly
SPEAKER_03: different from knack or that isn't that fascinating they're
Zain: fascinating they're they're not there you think they're playing in the same if they're in the same pool they're versions of different people like for sure but it's not like you don't think knack is playing in a deeply progressive pool here no
SPEAKER_03: you think they're
SPEAKER_03: i don't think so then my question to you on the on the
Zain: so then my question to you on the on the
Zain: the other end is if if knack wins why um
SPEAKER_03: i think if knack wins uh it
Zain: it is i think which by the way you think is the likely scenario to be clear just to make sure everyone's following yeah i think
SPEAKER_03: which by the way you think
SPEAKER_03: yeah i think today i would i would pick knack just and and this is like this is like a hundred percent like yeah you know earlier i said like you don't know how like normal people think well like talking
Zain: yeah
SPEAKER_03: about a constituency of one who's run a mayor like a city-wide campaign and
SPEAKER_03: i just like i
SPEAKER_03: i feel like he's i mean sorry first of all i would not want to be on the bad end of a janet brown poll i
SPEAKER_02: i will say
SPEAKER_03: i will say
SPEAKER_03: say
SPEAKER_02: say that
SPEAKER_03: that um
SPEAKER_02: um
SPEAKER_03: um and we're not certainly one where he was 20 points ahead of the next person uh
Zain: uh
Zain: uh
SPEAKER_03: uh now that's a snapshot in time and that might that might have evaporated immediately after that but but i think his campaign has gotten stronger and i think his support's gotten stronger since then i
Zain: i
Zain: i just i know do you think it's an issue do you think it's like the teacher strike or like is there anything that's aided it in your mind um
SPEAKER_03: just i know do you think it's
SPEAKER_03: i think he's i mean one thing about andrew knack is that andrew knack has been he
SPEAKER_03: is a very genuine authentic person he
SPEAKER_00: he presents
SPEAKER_03: presents himself as himself uh
SPEAKER_03: and i think he's one of those people that you can disagree with and still vote for i
Zain: i think
SPEAKER_03: think he i think he understands that and i think he understands how he uh
SPEAKER_03: uh i think he understands how that comes off i think that that's something that eventonians really like
SPEAKER_03: um you know if i had to provide
SPEAKER_03: any like
SPEAKER_03: armchair hindsight
SPEAKER_03: is 2020 criticism to kind of reach you would be that i think she tried to change a little bit too much to to
Zain: to to
SPEAKER_03: to
SPEAKER_03: to like to fit
SPEAKER_03: some expectations that maybe were like
SPEAKER_03: didn't help her out or it's like you know i felt like don kind of presented himself as like you
SPEAKER_03: know i'm i'm this is the guy that i've always been um
SPEAKER_03: i think andrew i think andrew just got a i think i
SPEAKER_03: I think if he wins, he wins because he is
SPEAKER_03: is more compelling to more
SPEAKER_03: people more often.
SPEAKER_03: And particularly in an election season that's a bit sleepy, where maybe
SPEAKER_03: you don't like the
SPEAKER_03: party system with Carmel, or maybe you think Carmel's tied to politics that you don't necessarily like,
SPEAKER_03: whereas Andrew seems like a slightly safer bet. that uh
SPEAKER_03: and and like i said edmontonians like sort of
SPEAKER_03: mildly ambitious candidates like that that want to do they
SPEAKER_03: want to do good things and represent their city well but but don't you know like
SPEAKER_03: aren't aren't coming in with like a giant
SPEAKER_03: giant gondola project or or you know we're gonna triple
Zain: or you
SPEAKER_03: the lrt in two years or anything like that like they don't like the i think edmontonians i think are generally pretty even keeled when they go to vote for mayor uh
SPEAKER_03: uh they also have like the opportunity to do that because they can you know it's a two
SPEAKER_03: ballot system right you vote
SPEAKER_03: for you know the
SPEAKER_03: number of in 2017 there were a huge percentage of the ballots were don
SPEAKER_03: don ivison for mayor and mike nickel for for
SPEAKER_03: counselor because
SPEAKER_02: because you
SPEAKER_03: you could be like well you know i like the home changing guy but i also want someone that's gonna be like hold them accountable at council so so there's a there's a dynamic there that you can add
SPEAKER_02: but i also want
SPEAKER_03: that you can play with with knack and if you you think that you know you can vote for knack and you
SPEAKER_03: know somebody that you think will you know will reign him in a bit so
Zain: so okay this is helpful i i've got i've got three more quick tranches for you number one you know back in 2017 when i was running the nenshi campaign you you you paid me a visit in the campaign office and we were chatting for a while and my eye was focused obviously on the mural and
Zain: and and and that race which opened up at the end but was a squeaker in fact we were down in some public poll for a while and
Zain: and then i paid attention on election night but like oh oh, yeah, what the fuck happened to council? I should take a look. Like, people fucking hated council, and then she was wearing a lot of that. Like, oh, my God, I bet all the people I know on council and every single one of the incumbents, Chris, got reelected.
SPEAKER_03: Every single
Zain: single one that ran, again, I should say.
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
Zain: Edmonton's got a bit of, oh, this council. We always have that a bit, but it would, in varying degrees. I don't want to spend time on individual folks because I think the Merrills was interesting to me, but give me a flavor of what do you think happens to council, How your read is in the sense how Edmontonians vote for these things? Do you feel like there's going to be a big change on council? Do you feel like incumbents are going to be unseated? Is this that election? What would dictate that in your mind? Just give me a sense on council right now. Aside
SPEAKER_03: from the five seats that are definitely going to change.
Zain: Because there's no incumbent.
SPEAKER_03: Because
Zain: Because there's no incumbent.
SPEAKER_03: Got it.
Zain: Got it.
SPEAKER_03: I think it's
SPEAKER_03: it's five.
SPEAKER_03: I think that generally, you know,
SPEAKER_03: know, again, we hear all this stuff about how this is like such a loony left council.
SPEAKER_03: But, you know, I know that they're all very conscientious about serving their constituents.
Zain: And
SPEAKER_03: And
SPEAKER_03: And not all those constituents are going to vote for them a second time, obviously. But I think most of them are going to.
SPEAKER_03: You know, like, I think that people generally
SPEAKER_03: really appreciate,
SPEAKER_03: like, sort of a customer service approach from the
SPEAKER_03: the council. And I don't think they get too worked up, particularly in Edmonton. I don't think you get too worked up in the politics.
SPEAKER_03: politics. That's interesting.
Zain: That's interesting.
SPEAKER_03: Like, I think they maybe, there's certainly a constituency of people who, like, identify a progressive councillor and identify a conservative
SPEAKER_02: conservative councillor, and they gravitate towards them. them but
SPEAKER_03: that's again those are like political animals and they're like very normal people in the middle that you
SPEAKER_03: know asked if there
SPEAKER_03: there could you know why the speed limit
SPEAKER_03: limit wasn't 30
SPEAKER_03: 30 and they're in front of or near their school and got a response back right and that's sort of what what they want to what they want to enter their city council so i would be i think that you know i wouldn't be surprised if every single incumbent came back i
Zain: i wouldn't
SPEAKER_03: wouldn't be surprised if uh five
SPEAKER_03: to seven for
SPEAKER_03: five came back and
SPEAKER_03: and maybe like a couple got picked on but
SPEAKER_03: i would be very surprised if only one came like
Zain: like
SPEAKER_03: one or two like i would be this is i
SPEAKER_03: mean every every election is a throw the buns out election until everybody until people go to vote yeah
Zain: yeah yeah
SPEAKER_03: yeah and and like and they you And a
SPEAKER_03: lot of these people work really hard, and I think they represent their constituents fairly well. I might be in the minority there, but I
SPEAKER_03: I see them do their work, and
SPEAKER_03: there's a very good reason why I
SPEAKER_03: think only seven people since 2004
SPEAKER_03: have
Zain: have lost
SPEAKER_03: lost an incumbent race
SPEAKER_03: in Edmonton. It's customer service politics, and these people, councils are generally really good at the customer service end of it. Love
Zain: Love that insight. Let's end here. You
Zain: know what this final weekend looks like. We sit here recording on Thursday evening, Thursday,
Zain: Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday.
SPEAKER_00: Saturday, Sunday,
Zain: It's on Monday.
Zain: Knowing what this final weekend involves, can you give me some advice for both of the two leading mayoral campaigns? And let's start with Cartmel.
Zain: What advice would you give to them and their team right now? Now, dispense it, whether it's over-the-air advice, on-the-ground advice, organizational advice, money advice. It might just be advice that says it's all over. You can't change the destiny. The cake is already baked. Good luck. I'm giving you just examples of things to consider. I'm not trying to shoehorn you, but the slate is clean and it is yours. What advice would you give the Better Edmonton Tim Cartmel team over the course of the next three to four days? i
SPEAKER_03: consider.
SPEAKER_03: i i think i would actually give the same advice to both candidates and that or both campaigns and that is just don't
SPEAKER_03: do anything fucking silly
Zain: don't
SPEAKER_03: don't change don't make massive changes like if you're if
SPEAKER_03: if just
SPEAKER_03: just run the strategy that you've been running this far uh
SPEAKER_03: don't
SPEAKER_03: try and pick up that x don't don't try and do anything that you think is going to pick up that extra percent i don't think it'll work like
Zain: like like you're getting a loan to get another half a million dollars of ads over the final weekend or shit like i'm just i'm making shit up or
SPEAKER_03: i'm making shit up or a hail mary of some kind right yeah
Zain: hail mary of some kind right yeah
SPEAKER_03: like don't try and like
SPEAKER_03: reveal that like i
SPEAKER_03: don't know like a photo or something that you
SPEAKER_03: know people are going to think that you release on friday night and on saturday everybody absorbs the ai and then and then you know like like there's no hail mary that's going to work here you are either on the trajectory to win right now or you're not uh
SPEAKER_02: absorbs the ai and
Zain: uh and
SPEAKER_03: and so i wouldn't be trying i wouldn't be trying to change tact at all right i would
SPEAKER_03: would be i
SPEAKER_03: would be running flat
SPEAKER_03: out with
SPEAKER_03: the with the strategy that got me where i you
SPEAKER_03: you know because like if
SPEAKER_03: if you're in the carmel campaign right now you think you're going to win on monday you you must you have to
SPEAKER_03: to think that way yeah you
Zain: way yeah you
SPEAKER_03: you have to think that way like and and i think there's like reason for them like that's not a fantasy that there's a there's
Zain: that there's
SPEAKER_03: there's a reason that there's a very compelling reason why they could win on monday um
SPEAKER_03: um if you're the knack campaign i would you know you gotta be you gotta be thinking the last three weeks of this campaign has been fucking
SPEAKER_03: fucking great right when people are paying attention uh people you know like i i would bet that the knack campaign feels like they're getting momentum a little more every day and
SPEAKER_02: a little
SPEAKER_03: and they're and they're headed toward you
SPEAKER_03: you know something they're
SPEAKER_03: they're headed toward victory maybe Maybe U.S. Flight won, but
SPEAKER_03: they are headed toward victory on Election Day. I would just keep going. And so, yeah, same thing with the Cardinal campaign. I would just would not do anything.
SPEAKER_03: Like,
SPEAKER_03: I think Edmontonians, I think, are a perceptive bunch.
SPEAKER_03: I think they'll see
SPEAKER_03: a gimmick. I think they'll spot a gimmick if you put one in front of them. So I would just head down, contact your voters, just get out there and work
SPEAKER_03: until you're blue in the face. I
Zain: I
Zain: love it. We're going to leave it there, Chris. And we now know so much more about Edmonton and people can pretend like they knew all of this all along on Monday night when they're when they're watching the election results come in. By the way, you guys in Calgary, we don't get the council results until much later because of all the shit. Is it different for you guys? I should know this, but I'm asking, do you know if it's different? we
SPEAKER_03: we go we have bullshit
SPEAKER_03: now we
SPEAKER_03: we used to get so basically you used to go to uh the elect you used to go to vote yeah
SPEAKER_03: yeah
SPEAKER_02: yeah and
SPEAKER_03: and you would say am i do i want a public trustee ballot or do i want a
Zain: want
SPEAKER_00: want a catholic
SPEAKER_03: catholic trustee ballot and
SPEAKER_03: and then you fill in the scantron sheet and then you feed it into the machine yourself yeah and
SPEAKER_03: then that's it and
SPEAKER_03: and and we get the results right away it's really really anticlimactic if you're a campaign manager uh
SPEAKER_02: because
SPEAKER_03: because
SPEAKER_02: because
SPEAKER_03: because you do
SPEAKER_02: do
SPEAKER_03: do you know you get a call from elections or at least i did i got a call from election beddington saying here's
SPEAKER_03: like where where we're at with the results and i was like okay fuck we won this thing uh i'm not going to tell anybody for 15 minutes because people are enjoying the attention uh
SPEAKER_03: uh but uh but now that we're all the now the provincial government has mandated that all the ballots have to be hand counted i
SPEAKER_03: don't know if we're going to see the results until late particularly if it's a post-election we might not get them till the next day that's going to be a fucking mess yeah
Zain: yeah yeah
SPEAKER_03: yeah so i'm not i'm really not looking forward to that edmonton elections like the municipal division edmonton elections has always done an extraordinary job organizing the election and like having just no drama whatsoever uh
SPEAKER_03: i i'm worried that we'll have a little bit of that this this time and i I think Edmontonians are going to I think
SPEAKER_03: think it's going to be weird for them to not have results
SPEAKER_03: of election on
SPEAKER_03: on election night. I think they are used to seeing that. But
SPEAKER_03: aside also, the cost of it is
SPEAKER_03: phenomenally high.
Zain: Yeah. Yeah. So I think we might be the same boat there. We'll leave it there. That's a wrap on episode 1887 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Velgey. With me always, Chris Henderson. We might unmute his mic every now and then. And we'll see you next time.
SPEAKER_03: So I think we might be the same boat
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