Zain: This is The Strategist, episode 1884. My name is Zain Velji. With me, as always, Shannon Phillips, Stephen Carter. You're
Zain: back, Stephen
Zain: Carter.
Carter: I feel like I never left.
Zain: I'm in the same
Carter: I'm in the same room I've always been in, doing the same thing I've always done.
Carter: Shannon may have felt like there was a break, but not me. I feel like it just continued all the way through.
Zain: Stephen records every night, The Diary of Stephen Carter. The Diary
Carter: The Diary of Stephen Carter. It actually
Zain: Carter. It actually explains the emotions, not the progress, the emotions he's feeling over 28 campaigns, Carter. and i've heard you've broken your back now uh yeah i hurt myself i
Carter: yeah i hurt myself i
Carter: hurt myself i was lifting too much stuff pounding too many posts it
Carter: it was it was a lot of work have
Zain: have you structured this thing correctly if you are pounding posts no
Carter: no but you gotta lead you gotta lead with example by example right there's leadership by example which means every once in a while you gotta go pound some posts and uh plant some signs and deliver some flyers i think that's wrong shannon
Zain: that's wrong shannon is that that wrong i think at a certain point you don't have to do yeah
Carter: do
Shannon: do yeah no no you're not supposed to be doing that if you're actually running found pants well
Carter: thank you i mean you guys being the experts and everything that makes me feel bad i
Carter: i don't know i
Zain: i don't know i think shan film's batting record in politics might be a little bit higher than yours she's
Carter: she's run like two campaigns maybe
Carter: three
Shannon: three i
Carter: three i
Shannon: won three with my name on the sign but i've been involved in a lot more why
Zain: why would you not just take the gift to pound Stephen a little bit more. Yeah, I'm just saying, she won three.
Shannon: why
Carter: why
Shannon: why
Carter: why would
Shannon: would you
Carter: Yeah, I'm just saying, she won three.
Zain: I
Carter: I
Zain: I do want to mention... Just wondering
Shannon: I do
Shannon: do want to mention... Just wondering if Stephen would win any with his name on the sign. Oh, yeah. Actually, my name recognition's
Carter: Oh, yeah.
Carter: my
Carter: my name recognition's a staggering number. It's a little too high. I would argue... That's
Shannon: number. It's a little
Shannon: argue...
Shannon: That's the problem. It's a bit too high in this election. There'd be some negative partisanship that would rear up if Carter's name was on the sign. Can you imagine? What's this
Carter: It's a bit too high in this election. There'd be some negative
Carter: What's this I hear that we're doing two episodes today, Velji? Well, we're not doing two episodes.
Zain: this
Shannon: this I
Zain: Velji? Well, we're not doing two episodes. In fact, you guys have set me up perfectly. I do want to do a couple of segments that will only be for our friends who subscribe to the Patreon at strategistpatreon.com. That's a thing that we are doing now to, I don't know, keep the money that people give us, Carter. And also shame people.
Carter: at strategistpatreon
Shannon: And also shame people. That's true. I think we're doing it to shame the shiftless losers who are not subscribers on Patreon. Oh my gosh, she gets
Zain: That's true. I think
Zain: Patreon. Oh my gosh, she gets it so much better than Corey did. What
Shannon: better
Carter: better
Shannon: better than
Carter: than
Shannon: than Corey
Carter: What are some of the shiftless losers that are our patrons? What do we do with them? them no
Zain: them? them no no we give them we give them what i'm gonna call b minus level content okay
Carter: okay there we go
Zain: but we have we have we have shit to talk about in their patreon segment i will say uh not much planning goes in the show but we have done a bit of planning which is i'm gonna get shannon's take on the ndp leadership federal ndp leadership she's got shit to share and carter is gonna explain to me the theory of the race for 28 races municipally in calgary and edmonton how he thinks this thing is going to go, how he thinks he has a chance to win, let's say, more than half of them. I'm going to start working on my
Carter: but we have we
Shannon: she's got shit
Carter: than half
Shannon: half
Carter: half
Carter: I'm going to start working on my Edmonton ward name pronunciations then, because 28 ward names, I can't pronounce 12 of them. Yeah, I think
Zain: because 28 ward
Zain: Yeah, I think you're in trouble for more than that reason. Carter, we'll get to the theory of the race. Municipally, we'll get to Shannon and her thoughts on the federal NDP leadership race now that we officially have two candidates in Avi Lewis and Heather McPherson. person but before we get into all of that let's move it on to our first segment our first segment not all labor is created equal guys i want to talk about two strikes we've
Carter: we'll
Carter: talked about we've
Zain: talked about we've talked at length about the cupi strike with flight attendants but we've got this potential strike with the alberta teachers association here in alberta and then the postal workers in their response to the government have now gone on strike and
Shannon: attendants
Zain: i want to start with a very top line question We can get into the details of both of these. For example, as we record today on Monday, teachers are voting right now. Shannon, correct me if I'm wrong. Carter, correct me if I'm wrong. I believe we should have a sense of that by today, tomorrow, in terms of what the results of the teachers' vote on their potential strike looks like, which is scheduled for later on, first week of October, i.e. next week. And we can talk about the details of the government and their plans on the COPW strike that is now active with postal workers. However, I want to start with a very top-line question. And let me start with you, Shannon.
Zain: And it's more of an observation than a question that I get you to respond on.
Zain: For neither of these groups, the teachers in Alberta or the postal workers federally, this doesn't feel like the same level of sympathy and energy that flight attendants had. Am
Shannon: I wrong? No,
Shannon: no, you're not. It isn't.
Shannon: And, you know, flight attendants hit just a moment in time and a certain issue set that allowed them tremendous public sympathy. And everybody understands the concept of sitting on the tarmac, twiddling your thumbs, and the idea that the people sitting in the aircraft with you aren't
Shannon: aren't being paid for that time struck people, I think, as being a little off. And then I think also people learning how little flight attendants actually make. They were like, what? Because, you know, back in the day, it used to be a fancy job.
Shannon: And I think people were shocked to learn, like they have learned with pilots as well, that it's not that fancy anymore.
Shannon: And the wages are not that great. I
Shannon: I think
Shannon: with teachers, you're going to see it start with about, you know, it'll fall on partisan lines, let's say 50-50 with public sympathy, and it'll go down over time.
Shannon: because that's just what it is, right? I mean, the government will take a hit too, for sure.
Zain: because that's
Shannon: But because employers
Shannon: employers always take a hit in terms of like brand reputation and all of that.
Shannon: But it will essentially probably bounce out on the lines of partisanship here in Alberta.
Zain: Carter, this doesn't feel like the same. Is my premise correct? Shannon seems to agree with it. She's given me some reasons why. I'm curious if you agree and give me some reasons in terms of why, if you do.
Carter: I'm not sure I agree yet. I think I agree on Cup W. I don't think that there's public sentiment in favor of the Postal Union. But I think that the Teachers Association will do better once they actually reach the strike function. They have an awful lot of messaging to do between now and then, you know, taking a deal and turning it down. You know, it's going to require some actual messaging. messaging and i'm not sure the ata has nailed their messaging to this point um but as they they move through the first week or so of this imagined strike because that's all it is at this particular moment is an imagined strike that's why i take a little bit of a difference it may work out to be exactly as shannon said but right now i still think that because it's in the land of the imaginary the ata still has the opportunity to kind of go 60 40 70 30 in
Shannon: imagined strike
Carter: support and then it it will drop as as it continues on you
Shannon: then it
Zain: you guys both agree on the drop but you don't agree or where the where the current sort of peak might like i think
Carter: you guys
Shannon: think
Shannon: think
Shannon: think the reason why i'm a little less bullish than i might otherwise be is there's been disturbance in the force internally with the ata right like the chair of the bargaining committee like you
Carter: like you
Shannon: you know i i quit in a fifth peak uh on facebook you know like things are not well in that particular universe and it it always gets dicey when you're putting an agreement before the membership but you're not recommending that agreement you know like there's all this sort of storm and drang within the teachers association that is going to undermine their ability to push that message that carter is talking about and he's right i'm not sure if they've quite landed it yet with the coherence that it needs to be um but also like stay on it and not allow those spots where the government can like come in drive wedges between, you know, union and membership, all of these things that are just tried and true tactics at a straight time.
Zain: I want to break down both of these. And let's start with the provincial one, because we haven't spent a lot of time on this pod recently talking about the province. So let's dig in deeper into the teachers and their conditions, because both of you mentioned this, which is the concept of bringing an agreement to membership and having not recommending and having them turn that down. What is the public opinion sort of world there? But before we get there, let me just kind of lay out some of the facts, right? So teachers voted over across the weekend. They're voting as we speak right now. By the time we record, I don't know when results will come out, but you should expect to hear them relatively soon. So they're voting right now. This is a vote on a 12% pay rise over four years, 3,000 additional teachers, and coverage for the COVID-19 vaccine. Those three things seem to be the headline, which we can get into the whole VAC stuff in a moment in a different segment. If they turn this deal down, Carter, their strike begins on the 6th. This affects 50,000 plus teachers, 51,000, oddly, nearly 750,000 students. students, and there is no materially, I think this is important, they do not receive strike pay and time spent during the strike would affect pensionable income as well, which I think is just worthy of mentioning as factors. But I want to get to the core of this, which is as strategists, as folks who kind of run and understand the political situation. Stephen, let me start with you.
Zain: Actually having an agreement that you turn down, does that change the PR game? Does that change the public opinion game versus trying to reach a deal and having a participant in government not not budging at all in this case you could argue government has budged even though this deal is virtually identical to what was initially offered that they've turned down before but the government's playing ball which is slightly different than at least from a public opinion perspective in my mind am i right yeah
Carter: yeah i think this is mostly an internal exercise right the how and before you go on strike go back to your membership and just say hey i just wanted to clarify this is what we're being offered we're all we're all against this right so when they get a a what one one would expect would be a fairly significant rejection then they they get to walk back into the negotiating room uh prior to the strike date and say listen our memberships know our membership knows what's at stake here it's this or strike they've chosen strike so you best get yourself ready for it um that to me uh strengthens the bargaining position uh i'm still Still, you know, not a great big fan of recommending something to the, or of not recommending something to be signed, but I got it. I understand what's going on. So it's, it's about pulling together everybody and making sure that everybody's on the same team. And I suspect 80 plus percentage will be on the same team.
Zain: What do you think, Shin? Is this, is this different or is this just a step in the process and the public doesn't necessarily take this into account in either positive or negative way? I
Shannon: think, I mean, really the argument on the part of the government at the end of the day will be the same, which is we offered you 12% and you're not taking it because you're a bunch of greedy teachers, right? That is going to be the government argument regardless. It doesn't matter how many steps they take to get there or what kind of circuitous route they get to that. That is where they will end up. Greedy teachers who have a nice pension that you don't have and they're lazy public sector workers that are asking for something that you don't have, Joe Public. like uh
Carter: That
Shannon: uh and in the meantime there's no place for your kids to go during the day that's
Shannon: that's what they're going to do they'll put millions of dollars behind it this government they've already started they've
Zain: they've already started they've already started with an ad campaign yep yep
Shannon: started with an ad campaign yep
Shannon: yep and so you know they're just gonna push those messages and that's where the ata needs like and i've said this before like some of their messages in the past have been pretty milquetoast right about like send a message on classroom conditions and it's a little bit soft and so they need to toughen up and
Shannon: and uh you know as i've said before Somebody in this country needs to get their elbows up, so maybe it can be their turn now.
Zain: Just for those listening and wondering, Shannon is available for voiceover work, and
Zain: and she does do that voice on demand for any labor union seeking to use it. The whimsical, ineffective voice, as she calls it.
Carter: for any
Carter: calls it.
Zain: Carter, here's the thing. The government, Shannon's brought this up, the government is pushing their side of the story actively. They've got an ad campaign right now. I've seen it, I believe, on television, a 30-second spot that they're running. Horner's mentioned that they're putting money behind it. Their campaign focuses on classroom investment, teacher pay raise, and the commitment to labor stability. They haven't gone down the, I mean, there's obviously a subtext to what Shannon is saying around lazy teachers, public sector workers. They haven't explicitly gone there, but they're starting to shape public opinion. What is the scope of the challenge for the ATA here? And how would you kind of anticipate the government's next move as a strategist? And what would you start thinking about in terms of message on your end? And
Zain: And Shannon, I'll come to you with that same question in a second. Well,
Carter: Well, I think that when you're dealing with the government, you do have to win the public relations war. You know, it's not a private corporation that you can just keep your workers solidarity together and hope for the best. This is a PR war as much as it's anything else. And the ATA needs to come equipped, recognizing that most of the families that you are impacting are going to be pretty steamed. There are not many families that can accommodate a teacher strike with ease, especially families of lesser means are really going to be struggling with this teacher strike, and there's going to be some bitterness towards teachers. So you must make sure that there is a very solid communication strategy, and I'm waiting to see it from the ATA. I haven't yet seen the ATA's communications work. work before
Shannon: going to be
Zain: before i get to you shannon when does it need to go out carter the government's out there the vote is concluding today does this like 5 p.m today like tomorrow's a major ad campaign i know we don't work in that sort of like very binary world but like for lack of a better term do you turn the switch on tomorrow aggressively or is this how do you kind of how do you kind of get into the game here i think timing i think timing is just as important as message which is why i ask I'd
Carter: i think timing
Carter: I'd have done it two weeks ago, but it's time to go. So tomorrow, do your major news hits and then start putting out your primary messaging. I would imagine that teachers protecting children has always been a big part of it. There's lots of different ways that the Alberta government is not protecting children. There's lots of hay to be made with the reason we're standing up is for you and your family. Shannon,
Zain: how do you combat what you've put on the table? Lazy public sector workers, 12% raise is double digits. Like, how do you combat some of that if you're the ATA and if you're teachers in this moment?
Shannon: Vertical video TikTok of teachers straight to camera and parents straight to camera, actually
Shannon: actually telling the story of what teachers are working with, but doing it in a way that looks organic but isn't, is pushed out much more thoughtfully than that. plus a big ad buy in all the traditional places and spaces where the government buys. In the display ads and banners when you're trying to read a Calgary Herald or Globe and Mail story. In the YouTube ads, the whole gamut, right?
Zain: right?
Shannon: It needs to be absolutely everywhere. Of course, the ATA can't start advertising like the government has until they have the results of the vote, right? They're hamstrung in that way. But I
Shannon: I sure should hope that they have got their materials ready to go because they have so many different channels and different types of excellent communicators that the government doesn't have because the government just has, you know, people like Nate Dorner or Daniel Smith who are at best 50-50 people to
Shannon: to carry the message. Teachers have teachers and
Carter: and parents
Shannon: and parents and validators and stories, and
Shannon: and they've got enthusiasm and real life on their side. So I sure hope they're using it. This
Carter: This goes back. I want to jump in on this. This goes back to some of the research that we've done on voice, what the more effective voices are. And Shannon's completely right. The peer-to-peer voices are way more efficient and effective than any government voice or corporation voice. Even formalized voices like teachers don't perform as well as parents do. So if the ATA is able to put together some super strong communications featuring parents, I think that they'll be in a really strong position, more like my 70-30 than Shannon's 50-50.
Shannon: to jump
Zain: jump in on this. This goes back to some
Zain: Dive in a bit deeper with me on here. here kids students do you use do you use elementary students do you do you can't use elementary okay
Carter: use do
Shannon: can't use elementary okay but i mean there's no reason why you couldn't uh child
Zain: okay but i
Zain: child actor have
Shannon: actor have have some um that are 17 18 or i just graduated and
Zain: um that
Zain: or i just graduated
Shannon: and uh in june and here's what you know my grade 12s looked like that's
Shannon: that's an avenue that's open to them i got a kid who's an actor a member and bring it to you yeah
Zain: yeah this is we're getting into the weeds here but i think purposely which is one of the notions that is often used on the teaching side on the education side carter is is child talent voiceover talent acting talent would you advise that in this moment or do you just skip any of the produced spots any of the produced content and you say let's go straight to even if you're scripting parents go straight to people who are actually affected by this i
Carter: don't think that scripted kids would be like Like talent kids would be heard. I think that real
Shannon: think that
Shannon: real parents
Carter: parents will be heard more than scripted children, personally. But, I mean, it'll be interesting to see what tactics they pull out and if there's something that really works. I mean, sometimes kids' voices work. It really would depend on the copy choices and the utilization, right? A child's voiceover that changes from being a child to being an adult and what it means to be educated in this world might be really interesting.
Shannon: personally.
Zain: Do you play on nostalgia? Like, I know I'm asking you questions without polling and any of these things, but I'm kind of curious where instincts are. Do you play on the fact that many folks in this province have been products of quality teachers, have been products of a system that these teachers teach in? Or do you feel like it's acutely about this moment in time? Do you try to bring people in with what their experiences may have been decades ago? I
Carter: think that people don't think that their education experience is as good this right now as it was when they were kids. Interesting. So I'm not sure that I'm going to go back and do it that way. But I don't know. That would be an interesting data question. One that I'd
Zain: kids. Interesting. So
Carter: really be careful. I'd be careful with the results too, right? Like, we misremember our childhood substantially.
Zain: really be careful. I'd be
Zain: we
Zain: I think that's one of the reasons nostalgia is so popular, though, is because we misremember so much. We gloss over and we sand over so much that it provides an opportunity. Shannon, over to you, sorry. I
Shannon: don't know. I think you're kind of like I think we're maybe thinking about this too much in the television ad world and how people are consuming things now, which is that, you know, straight to camera kind of stuff. And when you see successful communications campaigns as they've tried, they try literally everything. They throw everything at the wall and then, you know, something sticks. Right. So that is the new communications normal. It's not one message and it's not one platform and it's not one messenger. It's a whole bunch of different kinds. And I hope that
Carter: and
Zain: and how
Carter: how people
Shannon: that that's what we see from
Shannon: the ATA, because the government has probably got, I mean, five million to
Shannon: throw at this.
Shannon: Endless amounts, technically, you know, whatever they really want. Yeah, sure, but like comparatively, you know, on what they've spent on other campaigns, which is, you know, in the eight, nine. I mean, there's absolutely no break on that. Nobody cares anymore what governments spend on advertising. advertising so uh
Zain: Endless amounts, technically, you know, whatever they really want. Yeah, sure, but like
Shannon: that is a really big challenge and one that i hope the eta takes seriously yeah
Zain: yeah carter the channel makes a good point right like we may have been framing this as a tv ad but the spend will go everywhere it'll go on social go on radio going out of home uh
Zain: uh may even go on i
Carter: may even
Zain: i was going to say postcards probably won't because we'll talk about that in a moment here maybe
Zain: maybe we can talk about your struggles with postcards and literature um but the government will use every paid media resource possible they've got a literally a division that does this sort of work on behalf of the government right communications division that was once led by
Carter: by a
Zain: a good friend of the podcast
Carter: podcast cory
Zain: cory hogan yeah
Zain: yeah so the government's got this resource available what
Carter: so the
Zain: is a risk that the ata runs here then both in terms of either the spend the message the timing the framework like what's the biggest risk that they uh end up you know in let's just say over the span of the next week well
Carter: i think the biggest risk is that everybody you
Carter: know is tired of strike actions right we're tired you know we're tired by the canada post or canada uh air canada strike we're tired by canada post we're tired by um the
Carter: the teachers everybody's going on strike and what am i getting nothing
Carter: nothing nothing right everybody wants more but i'm not getting anything um so i i think that there's always a risk that when there's significant labor movements that move together Not necessarily together in coordination, but together just in time, that there can be some pushback. And I think that Alberta is not noted for its support of organized labor, I would argue, erroneously, but nonetheless, it still could backfire very carefully. like people could be very angry with the ata and that anger could uh manifest itself in some different ways in a way that i don't think that they're going to be angry with cup w
Shannon: right
Carter: right um which is interesting because i think that it has more to do with how much are you fucking my life over and
Carter: and there's going to be what 50 of the population whose life is going to be impacted impacted directly by this it's going to be a significant uh challenge for well for you zane uh just for you not just for me the voter that
Zain: not just for me the voter that needs that needs important municipal election information yes that's right carter uh let's let's talk about the cup w in a second
Carter: needs
Carter: information yes
Zain: but carter brings up an interesting point shannon that i i'd like you to opine on first which is labor solidarity here i think will be really interesting to watch at least for me which is Do you suspect that on the teachers front, we will see broader solidarity amongst other public sector unions? And what could that and should that look like? Because there is a timing thing here, which is like, if you go in and even though we're different unions, if you go at it, like this will affect us like, you know, this push, we want to help you be successful so that eventually, when we come to the strike, you know, position that we could be successful. So how do you kind of see labor solidarity playing out here in the province with the teachers should and all of all of our conversation today is presuming that by five o'clock today, this this teachers vote to go on strike, right? But like, how do you think labor solidarity plays out? I
Shannon: right? But like,
Shannon: don't know if it matters too much beyond what is the usual thing, which is, you know, the other unions show up to the big rallies and they wave their flags and they are, you know, quote unquote, in solidarity. What does that mean? Well, sometimes it can mean helping out, shoring up strike funds or other legal defense funds, this kind of stuff, because sometimes things can get spicy either in the courtroom or on the picket line. And you need lawyers. And that's what the House of Labor is for. And that's what labor solidarity is for. Now, ETA are not formally affiliated to the Federation of Labor or
Shannon: to the CLC, but I don't think you're going to see the
Shannon: the broader host of labor absent themselves from the picket line. I think they will be there in solidarity. And similarly, if AUPE had, the government of Alberta workers had rejected that deal that they, in fact, you know, accepted the 51%. If
Zain: line. I think they will
Shannon: If they were on strike, you would have seen a similar thing coming from the ATA or the broader labor movement. What does it mean in practice? Not a whole hell of a lot unless things get really bad.
Shannon: And then you will see some of the financial pieces come together and or donations to strike fund, that kind of thing. Okay. Carter,
Shannon: Carter,
Zain: final, final sort of strain of thinking here, which is help me develop the government's escalation plan here from a comms perspective, right? We from a labor negotiation perspective, we can leave that aside for a moment. But from a comms perspective, I mentioned earlier, they've gone with this investment in classrooms, teacher pay raise commitment to labor stability, a strong classroom investment is like their broader sort of theme. They've got 50,000 teachers. In some ways, you could look at the teachers that Shannon mentioned in two ways. That's 50,000 incredible spokespeople for the teacher's cause. But you only need to peel off a few of them after they don't get, you
Zain: you know, there's no strike pay here. There's no sort of like this can impact pensionable income. Does the government try to poach teachers on the other side of this argument? Does the government not do that? How does the government escalate this meaningfully in their public opinion war that we anticipate that they probably will in some way? I
Carter: I would imagine more poaching parents than poaching teachers. I think that the parent is going to be a very, very powerful vehicle. And there's going to be a lot of parents who are outraged. And it won't be the government saying, okay, let's put you in our ads. What it's going to be is the government connecting them to media. Correct. right you know the government will just be loud on
Zain: poaching teachers.
Zain: just be loud on social or do something oh yeah just you
Carter: something oh yeah just you know just they'll find a loud voice and push them off to media and media will cover them and that's probably the way that the government will wind up doing it i i don't think that teachers will necessarily be valued spokespeople for the government um you
Carter: you know i i don't see a teacher standing up and saying i'm getting i know i'd be happy with 12 not because not because there There wouldn't be a lot of teachers who would be happy with 12%, but because I just think that it's just not the spokesperson that's going to drive the government message the best. So
Zain: So you anticipate this being a parent tug-of-war, in a sense, this next couple of weeks. Channing, do you agree with that? And then give me your thoughts on what the government escalation should or could look like here.
Carter: next couple
Shannon: couple
Shannon: Yes, I agree. And the reason for it is that the government already has parent spokespeople in the form of these people who have been like super doing agita on the trans issues of, you know, people playing sports and the book bands and all this other, you know, they have these groups that are already activated and more activatable, right? Right. So you're going to get a bunch of different sort of maybe not entirely above board actors that are going to all of a sudden be, you know, anti-union spokespeople. You also have school
Zain: you know,
Shannon: school board election at
Zain: at the same
Shannon: same time. And so advantage who on that?
Zain: advantage who on that? Parents? I don't think it depends.
Shannon: I don't think it depends. I think it depends on the local politics, frankly, and whether you have a bunch of incumbents, whether you actually do have some energy coming from that far right,
Zain: frankly, and
Shannon: anti-trans, super, you know, amped up, you know, gender and sex ideology, people who would come and scream at me in electoral forums in 2023.
Shannon: Those people, like in some areas, are like storming the ballot box and are going to have a presence on school boards. In other places, they're not a factor.
Shannon: But that whole issue of being in the latter two weeks, essentially, of school board campaigns is also going to have an effect, even though this is centralized bargaining. bargaining carter
Zain: carter shannon brings up a very fascinating point which is a municipal angle here oh
Zain: oh yeah um what's
Zain: the pathway for someone running for municipal office to take advantage not yeah actually let me just use that term because we are talking you know political strategy or to take advantage of this situation for their own candidacy how
Carter: you know political
Zain: how do they do that and how do they risk um doing that poorly in your mind well
Carter: well i mean i would declare myself for one of the sides right you
Zain: you would which
Carter: which yeah which side do you think is going to be the most powerful side i'm with with teachers right uh i'm i'm with the government you know 12 it would be enough for me would you get loud on
Zain: would you get loud on this as a municipal sort of it doesn't even have to be school board trust you maybe this is hitting too close to home for you but like no would you get loud as a mayoral candidate
Carter: no would you get loud as a
Carter: candidate on this wouldn't play in the mayoral race but it would totally play for the council race you know i would stand up at every forum for school counselor and say i'm you know i'm running for the teachers i'm with the teachers or i'm with the government uh 12 12 would be enough for me it should be enough for teachers. Walk
Zain: would totally
Zain: Walk me through your thinking on why this does not play at the mayoral. Obviously the issue set, but is this not a proxy for taking on the Smith government in some way? Why do you not think this plays on a municipal mayoral level for either of our two major cities, for example?
Carter: me through your
Carter: I think that it just confuses things too much with the fact that there's a provincial election for school trustees, right? Like the school trustees are being elected at the same time that you're being elected. Are you running for school trustee or are you running to be the mayor mayor of Calgary or the mayor of Edmonton. And I would probably say that, you know, you can take a punch at Danielle Smith on this, but it's going to look totally different than, you know, I'm for the teachers or I'm for the union. I would imagine it would be, I'm for order, right?
Carter: right? I'm for this being solved. Danielle Smith can't solve problems. She's a problem creator. Ergo, you
Carter: know, this is is why we're facing a strike situation so it's a very different you
Carter: you know you could do it that way zane but you wouldn't want to go in it as i'm for the teachers or i'm for the government
Zain: shannon any final thoughts on on what the teachers face let's use it between the period of now till when the strike date has been announced october 6th is any any recommendations thoughts final thoughts on this um we'll probably revisit it between now and then uh possibly but i'll let you get a swing at that and carter you too before we move to cup w well
Shannon: i would say that uh given Given that there are school board trustees on the ballot across the province, and one of the main things that they talk about when they bring together an election platform is, sure, am I going to advocate for this area, this geographic space, this number of students, what have you, I would be putting it to them. And who votes in school board elections? Well, probably old people, generally speaking. speaking uh parents at to a certain extent but not necessarily uh and teachers and school staff they
Carter: elections?
Carter: uh parents
Shannon: they vote uh for school board trustees so i would be i using this to talk to people via that and definitely
Shannon: make sure that you've got strong candidates incumbents uh saying all the right things and making all the right noises on this carter
Zain: carter let's move it on to the federal fight cup Cup W, they went on strike four days ago following the government's announcement of major reforms. So the government wants the end of home delivery, closure of rural mail outlets. They want to bring back the Harper era community mailboxes, which were paused. And then, you know, actively the liberal government actively campaign on that will end the Harper era community mailboxes. Well, the Carney government is saying, bring that shit back to make these major reforms. You guys are effectively insolvent here. here um this is after two years of negotiations the union has rejected the 13 percent wage increase demanding 19 instead so we find ourselves here carter give me the top line advantage government advantage cup w who
Zain: would i think i think
Carter: would i think i
Carter: think the advantage is government because i just don't think that people check their mailboxes every day i don't think that people are thinking oh today's the day i'm going to get my check um you know there was a time when you know i would I'd run to the mailbox because I wanted to get a check from one of my clients. Now I just go online and I check and my bank account went up.
Zain: just don't
Carter: Things are good. My bank account went down. Things are bad. It's all online. There's no need to run to the mailbox to try and find a check in your mailbox anymore. The only thing that comes in your mail is unaddressed ad mail, which are flyers and brochures and things that you don't care about. Many of our listeners have probably put no flyers, please, on their mailbox, which actually reduces Canada Post's ability to make a profit. You don't need it. And on top of that, so Canada Post has redeveloped itself into a flyer delivery service and a parcel delivery service. And the parcel delivery service can be extremely profitable. Take a look at, I don't know if you're familiar, Zane, there's this company called Amazon. on they deliver from a to z um it's very very big in the u.s very big um but there's all kinds of other companies as well that are shipping their stuff directly to you you don't have to go to them anymore and so if you have those things coming directly to you a community mailbox with actual parcel boxes so your your shit doesn't get stolen off of your deck is a super important thing dang so i i'm i'm i think that most people are going to be on the side of um of uh canada of canada post and the government and i think that the fact that the government stepped in at this moment knowing it was going to cause a strike like there was no way on god's oh yes yes they triggered it and they triggered it now instead of triggering it at christmas i think this is one of carney's best plays and i think it was a do
Zain: deliver from
Shannon: way on god's oh yes yes they
Carter: do it now we'll wait we'll wear down the union and they'll be back delivering mail by let's say the beginning of november
Zain: shannon i'll let you react and then obviously offer your own but let me summarize carter's take here and carter tell me if i'm wrong advantage government brilliant move carney and carter lays out the strategy of why this is a winning move for them in the sense of timing as well shannon
Zain: any disagreement with what carter's put on the table and kind of who do you give the advantage to here i
Shannon: think it's a damaged government so i'll agree with him there i'll agree i'll disagree on how he got there a little bit but or i'll just add some context here in terms of small business uh outside of major centers and what we actually use canada post for so
Shannon: um small businesses get really pissed off when canada post goes on strike because it is so much cheaper to send their shit uh than uh any of the the other big, uh, UPS, uh, DHL, what have you. Okay. So that's the first thing. Like it is so much cheaper. I just had to send an envelope to Saskatchewan today. Uh, and I took it into UPS cause it needs to go. And I don't know if like people are going to yell at me for crossing picket line. I don't fucking care. Anyway. Uh, it cost me $28.
Zain: their shit uh
Zain: UPS, uh,
Carter: cheaper. I just had to
Zain: it cost me $28.
Shannon: Instead I was $2 cause it was an an envelope.
Carter: cause
Shannon: I have to send another one. I have to send my kid's firearms thing to New Brunswick. It's going to cost me another 30 bucks and it's going to get there by mid-October. So I'm sending it. That is the difference, right? The Delta is huge. So that's the first thing when you have to send things. And a lot of small businesses do. And a lot of small businesses use Canada Post for their shipping because then they can use free shipping. Otherwise they don't, right? Because it's too expensive to send it with a private courier. The second thing is it's not just the rural and remote it's also the smaller cities where you're not going to get that last mile or like smaller towns right so it's like they are you know out there but they're there it's basically outside of the big cities oftentimes you need Canada Post for that last mile and
Shannon: that's to say nothing of the the actual rural and remote like up north right where they use Canada Post for all clients of of reasons in their community post office for all kinds of reasons so that's That's the second thing. And the whole thing is just fucking sad. Can we just admit that this whole story is just so sad? Because ultimately, we don't have a government that gave the crown a mandate to restructure itself for the current reality, where there's all kinds of business cases for this
Zain: for this
Shannon: this particular publicly owned mail and delivery service. Having someone deliver the mail to my mailbox every day i'm part of those four million canadians who still has door-to-door mail service not it not particularly certain i need it quite frankly um
Carter: um
Shannon: um
Shannon: um but there are ways to make sure that this uh crown service for a massive fucking country yeah i with a lot of rural and remote need and a lot of small business need actually has a service that you know is is updated for the modern times and on both sides and i hate to both sides this but i mean come on Right. It's just been one thing after another. And frankly, I think the voters need to say to the government, like restructure this thing. Don't walk away from it. And but keep this thing as as a crown and a public service. That is the ultimate outcome that that should happen. I don't know if it will.
Zain: yeah i
Shannon: want
Zain: want I want to pick up on that in a second. Carter, do you still get mail to your door?
Zain: Still get
Carter: get mail to
Zain: to my door, yes. I think all three of us do, because, Carter, you and I are very close to each other. And, Shannon, you just mentioned you did. And I almost feel the same way as Shannon, which is like, what
Carter: my door, yes. I think all
Carter: because, Carter, you
Zain: what a luxury, right? Like, in some ways, which is, it's kind of crazy, especially when I go visit my mom and she has to, you
Carter: is, it's
Zain: you know, go across the street every day. And it's just across the street. It's fine, right, for the most part. But it is interesting in terms of this, like, snapping back to a new reality, which kind of brings me to this, Carter, which is, Is
Zain: Is there any way for the union to meet the moment from
Zain: a messaging perspective? Because as our friend Corey Hogan would say, all problems manifest as communications problems, ultimately, but there are more structural problems, certainly here, right? Like, like, I'm, you know, understating it. But is there any way for them to temporarily meet the moment so that they still survive? Because I don't think people realize that Canada Post leaving and saying bye-bye is a potential, like,
Zain: pathway. There is that door that exists here, which is Canada Post says goodbye in some meaningful or
Zain: fundamental,
Zain: terminus way, Carter. So
Zain: So what
Carter: So what
Zain: what can the union do here is a simpler way of me asking my question with the background I've just kind of given.
Carter: I mean, I think the way that the union can make things work is to focus on one thing that they're going to get.
Carter: If it's going to be wages, then they should focus on wages and try and push their wages. If it's going to be job security, they should focus on job security. They're not going to get job security, wages, and the way things used to be. They're going to get a new reality. So my view would be those people who are working in Canada Post, who are going to be working in Canada Post anyways, ways uh the warehouse workers the the the people you know the the front line delivery
Carter: mailbox delivery crew uh the the poor guy who goes to my door every day um he's going to be delivering to postal boxes uh or community mailboxes um three times a week not five times a week and
Zain: and this is this
Carter: and this is this has changed before i mean he used to have six day a week delivery now it's changed you know know it's gone to five people survive people will survive with three days a week they'll survive frankly if it went to one day a week but
Shannon: this
Carter: but they won't survive without is parcel delivery and if i was canada post and cup w i'd be working really hard to make sure that um canada post doesn't become pure later right
Carter: or what is it pure later what's the yeah that's owned by canada post that's right yeah yeah yeah so um you
Zain: that's right yeah yeah yeah so
Carter: know that's where canada post could be in in two years years just pure later you know just outside of uh the normal experience because you know if
Carter: you have to mail a letter maybe you will spend fifteen dollars to do it right
Carter: if
Carter: it has to be done it has to be done um
Carter: um this
Carter: this subsidized one dollar a letter thing is is isn't uh isn't something that necessarily is going to be sustained channing
Zain: is there is there a winning argument here for for the union like is there a winning argument beyond wages i guess is what i'm trying to say and carter i I appreciate your response here, right? Like the focus on one thing. I think that's smart. I think it's strategic.
Carter: I think
Zain: My mind maybe is too ambitious here and maybe it's too late, but I'm going to float this with both of you. But is there a like pro-Canada argument here? Is there an anti-Amazon argument here? Is there any of the let's not Americanize, let's not privatize, let's like the pride in this institution argument? I don't know how much juice is in that orange to squeeze, and if it's too late, but I'd like you to just think about that, Shannon, and just give me your sense on that in terms of a strategic play here.
Carter: -Amazon argument here?
Shannon: I think it's a national security issue if you don't have an ability to, you know, send things into the north in this country without using an American company to do it. I think it's an economic development issue if you can't run a business out of Iqaluit because you have no way to ship your stuff south or anywhere else. It would seem to me that there are plenty of arguments that the union can make. essentially what they should be doing is saying look the steps that the government is taking mean that you are going to lose x y and z and usually that's going to be some combination of any service whatsoever uh on the regular uh in rural and remote you are going to lose uh you know affordable uh uh you know ways to send christmas cards and and those kinds of things because i tell you what i'm not doing it if it costs 28 bucks a pop um and
Zain: think it's an
Shannon: uh but it shouldn't be door-to-door mail delivery. I've seen, you know, people busting out with these arguments, oh, promise
Shannon: promise to restore door-to-door in 2015, the Liberals did, they broke a promise. And it's like, I don't care, right? And I don't think Canadians care that much. There are some Canadians who do, in which case they can sign up for a home
Carter: right? And I
Shannon: home-based delivery.
Shannon: It would seem to me that your broader arguments are, are you actually going to put holding this country together in the hands of of a bunch of American couriers? Two, are you going to charge me at 10 times what it costs right now with Canada Post? And three, are you going to cut off economic development to vast swaths of this country?
Zain: Carter, do you think the government's going to reject their very conservative approach here?
Carter: I don't think... Who's very conservative approach? The government's conservative approach? Yes, yes. Do you think... Sorry, let
Zain: Yes, yes. Do you think... Sorry, let me argue. Do you think this liberal government is going to regret their very conservative approach on Canada Post? I
Carter: I don't think so. I think that the fact that
Carter: Trudeau didn't do it in 2015, 16, 17, 18, right down to 2025. That's the actual regret. Because if you actually started addressing this 10 years ago, maybe we'd have a Canada Post that's not profitable. I've seen people saying Canada Post shouldn't be seeking a profit. It's not seeking a profit. It's just seeking not to lose handfuls of money every single day, right? Like it is losing a fortune um every every year and it is not sustainable so even the changes that are coming down the pipe are minuscule compared to the size of the uh the overall deficit that has been created by canada post operations so i i think the regret is the 10 years that uh trudeau did nothing i'm
Zain: i'm
Zain: i'm taken by shannon's like national security frame i'm taken by her active frame these have have not been adopted by by the union uh these have not been kind of necessarily broadcast as the reason canada post should exist and potentially to their sort of advantage exist the way it is which is partially what they're trying to argue for uh in terms of how they want to get paid and what the future of the organization looks like carter do you feel like it's too late for some of these arguments do you feel like there's room for some of these arguments here like where do they fit in in your wine like i'm taken by them but
Zain: but i come with a very different politic than i I suspect, Joe Public in many ways.
Carter: Well, I think that this is why the movement by the Carney government was so strong, right? Like the speed with which it happened and then all of a sudden there's a strike overnight. No one was ready for this. The union wasn't ready for it. You know, the union had just rolled out there. We're not doing neighborhood ad mail anymore. Correct, that's where we were at
Zain: Like
Shannon: Like the
Zain: Correct, that's where we were at and you and I were discussing that. And
Carter: and I were discussing that. And it was impacting my campaigns dramatically. That
Carter: happened 15 minutes ago. And then all of a sudden, boom, boom, in comes the Carney government. And they're like, oh, and by the way, all these things that we said we weren't going to do in 2015, now we're doing.
Carter: Boom. And the union said, I mean, the union had to go on strike. I don't think there was any choice but to go on strike when that package came down. But still, it's going
Carter: going to be a hard messaging hole to get get out of if you're cup w because these don't sound like unreasonable requests by the carny government shannon
Zain: last question on this um friend
Zain: of labor pierre
Zain: pierre polly f a
Zain: new friend of labor i don't know if you know this he loves labor he's been so he's so on side uh and it sounds kind of sarcastic but like in some cases private sector he's rhetorically been on side is there a political wedge here for pierre polly ever does he escape this very easy this is like light handcuffs that that he can just rhetorically get out of the fact that he's not voicing in, chiming in on the side of labor here.
Carter: new friend
Shannon: friend of labor
Carter: you know
Shannon: know this he loves labor
Shannon: he's been so he's
Shannon: and it sounds kind
Shannon: I don't think it matters. And that's, again, to the point about the sad state of affairs. There's actually a lot at stake here.
Shannon: This is a pretty serious public policy issue. It's a pretty serious economic development issue. But he can get away with saying very little at all.
Zain: This
Carter: This
Zain: This
Carter: This
Zain: little at all.
Shannon: Carter,
Zain: Carter, did
Shannon: Carter, did he
Carter: he
Zain: get away with saying very little? Who has the ability to hold him into account here? Anyone?
Carter: get
Carter: No, I think the Cup W is on an island. I
Carter: think they really are on an island. They're going to be, and
Carter: and the water is rising.
Zain: This is where we leave it for the normies until we come back for the over, under, and lightning round, which I think is going to be quite fun, because I've got special materials prepared for that. Well, fuck it. Don't come back
Carter: for that. Well, fuck it. Don't come back for that. No, I will. Yeah, I'm actually going to fuck them. Put that on the Patreon,
Zain: No, I will. Yeah, I'm actually going to fuck them. Put that on the Patreon, too. You know what? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Fuck the normies. Yeah, no, fuck the normies. Actually, let's do a whole episode. Let's do a Patreon. I generate losers,
Carter: yeah, yeah. Fuck the normies.
Carter: Actually,
Shannon: Actually, let's do a whole episode.
Shannon: episode. Let's do a Patreon. I generate losers, as I believe how we are going to characterize them. Oh, okay. Oh, my God.
Zain: going to characterize them. Oh, okay. Oh, my God. They can reverse their fortunes, though. It's strategistpatreon.com, where we'll record an episode when we feel like it.
Shannon: They can
Carter: record an episode when we feel
Carter: it.
Zain: it. You know, we'll feel like recording at some point, and then we'll do it, and it will be gold B-minus content, as the following will be. Let's move it on to our over, under, and our lightning round. Stephen Carter, Shannon Phillips, we have made it.
Zain: This is my favorite part.
Carter: This is my favorite part.
Zain: part. This is not just an Alberta-specific over, under, and lightning round. This is a Danielle Smith-specific
Zain: -specific over, under, and lightning round. Here's what I want to do. I'm going to give you four things our premier has done over the last two weeks, or is going to do based on documents and sources. And I want you to talk about which one of these four is the silliest and
Shannon: -specific over, under,
Zain: which one of these four is the most strategic. These
Zain: These are all things that we will, between the three of us, will hate in the sense of what is going on. But I want you to talk about the silliest and the most strategic. So, Carter, let me start with you first, okay?
Zain: Daniel Smith won citizenship status on driver's licenses, announcing that starting in late 2026, Alberta Alberta will require all new and renewed licenses and provincial ID cards to include a citizenship marker. She's
Zain: charging, this one is a little bit old, but it's coming to light now. There is a
Zain: a $100 per dose fee on the COVID-19 vaccine, except for health care workers, some seniors and certain vulnerable groups. The premier has defended this move as a response to the federal government no longer covering the vaccine and as a way to prevent waste. Nothing to do with some ideology related to it whatsoever. So you got thing number one, citizenship status, thing number two, the vaccine admin fee, thing
Zain: thing number three, leaked memo suggests she's going to use a preemptive use of the notwithstanding clause against the anti-trans legislation that she has, the suite, the basket of legislation that she has on the anti-trans piece coming up in the next session. And finally, leaked documents suggest Daniel Smith is preparing legislation that would allow Alberta to ignore or opt out of international agreements signed by Ottawa if they are deemed to intrude on provincial jurisdiction. Stephen Carter, do you have the four listed? I
Carter: I do have the four listed. Give
Zain: listed. Give me your silliest and then give me your most strategic.
Carter: The silliest. It's interesting because the two I'm going to put in the middle that we're not going to talk about are the notwithstanding clause for trans people. which i find abhorrent um but it's neither the most strategic nor is it the most the silliest um is abhorrent uh but there is an audience for it and it has some strategic value and but it is not the most strategic um the the the covet 19 vaccine is neither the most strategic nor the the silliest it is uh entirely in keeping with her uh philosophy i'm sure she thinks it's part of fiscal uh fiscal
Shannon: which i
Carter: fiscal uh responsibility until you have all the people with covet 19 in your hospitals instead of uh vaccinated but say the silliest is the the citizenship requirement on our uh id what does that tell us um do we have you
Zain: but say
Carter: know uh are you not going to be allowed to drive a car if you're not a citizen of the united states and have an alberta driver's license like Like, what is it exactly? I'll
Zain: exactly? I'll give you her quote, which is, or her paraphrase quote, which is, this will streamline access to services and increase security. That is the government's line on this. What
Carter: What the fuck does that even mean? That's why it's the silliest. It's absolute bullshit. You know, it's absolute bullshit, and it's silly. There is no audience for this. There is no strategic group that she goes to and says, oh, look what I'm doing, and this has got strategic value. There is nothing that makes this valuable for her. And the most strategic value, therefore, is the international agreements. Pushing back on those is just another way of fighting with Mark Carney. And this is a new way that she gets to try and define the opposition as the federal liberals.
Zain: fuck does that
Zain: That's why it's the silliest. It's absolute
Carter: So I guess it's good.
Zain: So I
Zain: I'll come back to both of you with a follow-up to this. But, Shannon, I want to give you the same shot here. The silliest from the bucket and the most strategic from the bucket. Carter's put notwithstanding and COVID as the middle two, the silliest for him is a citizenship on the driver's licenses and the most strategic. I think he's saying by default, then, is the refusal to accept the federal agreements. What say you, Shannon Phillips? I
Shannon: think it's probably the most strategic because it has the least outcome. There's the least downside, the treaty thing.
Shannon: Klein tried to do this. I was just looking it up and I couldn't find how Klein dealt with this when the federal government went in to ratify the Kyoto Protocol back in the early 90s. But there was a Supreme Court decision, I think before we were a country, I think it was the UK, out of the UK Supreme Court back in the 20s, that essentially said, yes, Canada can ratify treaties.
Carter: Klein
Shannon: treaties. It was an international labor organization treaty that are in, you
Shannon: know, some form of provincial jurisdiction. So this is well-trodden territory. There's no real downside for her going into the House with this. It's just another, you know, bullshit way to waste time in the legislature this fall. So points for that, I guess. And she can get up and make a 45-minute speech about how she's, you know, the queen of standing up to Ottawa, and we need somebody to do that. And those are good talking points for her, so great for her. um
Zain: her going into the House with
Carter: um i
Shannon: i think uh in the same vein uh though i'd be strategically silly as in strategically stupid uh is the um is the driver's license thing uh
Shannon: uh because i first of all i think it's going to be a boondoggle uh with the uh privatized registries i think i can hear the whining from here uh from the registries uh on uh you know the cost uh you know how the implementation goes all of that you You know, they are a bit of a whining sector anyway.
Zain: uh because
Shannon: So they will whine. Absolutely. Number two, it's not clear to me if you can opt out because sign me up. I'll be opting out. Right. If I need to prove my citizenship, I've got documents for that. Yeah.
Carter: Yeah.
Shannon: And so I think it'll just piss people off.
Shannon: And it will be one of those things that could be used as a very good wedge by the opposition. And going into an area that's not strategically smart, it's not at all clear to me that you know there's been some some uh talk about how the the consensus around immigration is unraveling it's not at all clear to me that that is in fact the case in public opinion and in particular a few press people like you could say to people in any group uh oh have have there been too many uh temporary forward workers or too many international students or even uh you know where our immigration levels too too high for the last couple of years and probably get That, you know, at least a 50-50 head nod on that, wherever
Carter: and in particular
Shannon: wherever in the country.
Shannon: It's not clear to me that that then goes to, we should withhold services from certain kinds of people, depending on how long they've lived here. I don't think the polling on that's probably very good. So that is dumb. I think that notwithstanding stuff on the trans issues, I mean, she's got a constituency for this. So as much as it pains me because it's a horrible thing
Carter: I don't think the
Carter: a horrible thing
Shannon: thing to have 14 different sets of human rights in this country.
Shannon: The fact is, is that she's got a constituency for this and she has to keep them together through her own leadership exercise. And the COVID thing is it's just I mean, those of us who want it will pay for it. Unfortunately, that will be too few people to arrest
Shannon: arrest the spread of the other new variant. And so and, you know, people like me will continue to suffer if we get more COVID out there.
Zain: Shannon, let me stick with you for this for last last question here, which is, does
Zain: she repeal any of these yes or no question essentially does she walk back on any of these i guess is a better way uh
Zain: uh she might
Shannon: she might okay
Zain: okay give
Zain: me a grade on the suite uh the strategic suite of things that she's put out here do you what do you kind of think in terms of a letter grade for these four things in the last couple of weeks that danielle smith has done two
Shannon: of them are stupid and two of them are designed to shore up a base uh so i would give it about a b carter
Zain: carter does she walk back any of these and give me a grade she
Carter: doesn't walk back anything I give her enough because I always give her enough Stephen
Zain: Stephen Carter consistent if nothing else that's a wrap on episode 1884 the strategist my name is Zane Velji with me as always Shannon Phillips and young Stephen Carter shouldering 28 campaigns breaking his back and we shall see you next time