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Zain: is strategist episode 1880 my name is andrew with me as always steve and carter and carter we can raggle anyone else we try no we
Carter: no we tried yeah now do
Zain: do
Carter: do
Zain: do
Zain: we try hard enough no no no
Carter: no no we tried we we did try i was like hey and then no one was available it was it was
Zain: it was it was a weak
Zain: old
Carter: old
Zain: old
Carter: old man's
Zain: man's whimper late
Zain: late at night it was it was that booty call hours that you sent us a text it was very strange yeah it's
Carter: late at
Carter: yeah it's nice and but but here we are recording in the mid-afternoon which is something we never do this is uh pretty
Zain: uh pretty much upsetting podcast recording equivalent of you up up
Zain: up and i was the
Carter: i was the
Carter: the only one up yeah
Carter: it's it's awkward for both of us and neither one of us is happy and and
Zain: neither one of us is happy and and i'm now down to to be here with you i'm in montreal car uh where are you with your uh awards this looks like i'm in the
Carter: i'm in the same spot i always am i wasn't a little a
Zain: i wasn't a little a
Carter: little bit of lego a little bit of your awards i don't know yeah i do i
Zain: little bit of lego a little bit of your awards i don't know yeah i do i do travel with my awards it's
Carter: do travel with my awards
Zain: something travel awards yeah
Carter: yeah i mean it's it's important that uh people know that you've got some skills that were recognized once you
Zain: know this okay
Zain: okay i didn't want to get into the airline talk oh
Carter: oh but do you think
Zain: oh
Zain: but do you think airlines should allow awards
Zain: as
Zain: as part of a free check bag situation totally if you're bringing your awards your emotional support awards with you kind
Zain: kind of like the emotional support animals should those awards be given a free bag check stephen carter uh yes to be the most popular man on the internet
SPEAKER_02: like the
SPEAKER_00: the
Carter: yes i am the most popular man on the internet yeah
Zain: yeah
Carter: yeah
Zain: yeah excellent you did it Yeah, thank you very much.
Carter: Yeah, thank you very much.
Zain: Emotional support. Carter, we have so much, and in that case, so little to talk about. But we have turned so little into... There is so much, but there's also so little, which I think is... Do you remember when
Carter: But we have turned so little
Carter: think is... Do you remember when we used to take the summers off? I
Zain: tried.
Zain: He sent that you up message. I felt guilty.
Carter: guilty.
Carter: Yeah, no, it's... Most messages
Zain: it's... Most messages at 2.30. The
Carter: The summertime should be time off. That's the core emotion driving
Zain: The summertime should be time off. That's the core emotion driving most of those messages, Carter, at 2.30 in the morning, which is guilt. Guilt. I
Carter: at 2.30
Zain: actually have a check-in with you that I know you and Annalise did a municipal episode around what's going on. But can I dig deeper into this to start with? And I do want to talk a bit about Carney and his August 1st deadline because I'm, you know, if you're struggling
SPEAKER_02: you know,
Carter: know, if
SPEAKER_02: if
Zain: for content, looking at the calendar is one thing you could do. And I did that. And he's promised us a new deadline on August 1st deal with the United States. I want to talk about that in a second.
Zain: Here's my check-in with you.
Zain: What have, and
Zain: I suspect people are aware that you're working,
Zain: I'll let you phrase this, on political campaigns in Alberta. Is that fair?
Carter: Yeah, I'm working on Better Edmonton in Edmonton and the
Zain: I'm
Zain: I'm working on
Carter: the Calgary Party in Calgary. And
Zain: I know you wanted to be transparent. I just wanted to let you frame that, which is two municipal parties within our two major cities here in Alberta with an election looming in October, an election date that should that federal election have been lined up was going to be the federal election. The same day. Yeah. Yeah. It's that same day. Not even the same day. Yeah. That's no longer, I think.
Carter: with an
Carter: an
Carter: an
Carter: The same day. Yeah. Yeah.
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
Carter: same day.
SPEAKER_02: day.
Carter: day. Yeah.
SPEAKER_02: That's
Carter: That's
SPEAKER_02: That's
Carter: That's no longer,
Zain: Here's someone who's got this arm
Zain: in both of these parties, but is experiencing this in two major cities. I wanted to get a sense on a check in from political operative Stephen Carter. What has he learned in summer campaigning?
Zain: Summer's not over yet. But I'm curious if you've learned any preliminary lessons that you'd be willing to share around summer campaigning. and what
Zain: what's really got me interested in this is i'm in montreal right now or where just for laughs comedy festival is they have had they and they do festival season all year round but but certainly during the summer it's this chaka block it's also a very political time there's like political posters political signs union activism constantly and walking up and down these streets over the course of the last number of days being here it
Zain: it got me thinking their
Zain: their political sort of um communications and marketing over the summer is very different it's very much centered around festival season because it's constant and everyone gravitates to the center of this main city. But I'm curious, Carter, as someone who has been working on these campaigns in Alberta, what lessons have you been learning or have learned over the course of the last number of weeks as a summer campaigning practitioner?
Carter: Number one, campaigning during the summer is is hard uh so in edmonton we don't have i mean there if edmonton has a bunch of festivals and such as well but there is no you can say more
Zain: is no you can say more southern calgary i
Carter: i would say yeah
Zain: i would say yeah yeah it seems like it more of
Carter: it more of them but not but not necessarily as big as the stampede yeah so i'm going to come back to the stampede because that's a very big lesson um but in edmonton you have these festivals but you don't have a political culture right
Carter: right so
Zain: right so
Carter: so there is no culture of politicking during the the summer um most people want the campaign to start sometime in early september and be done in october and that's just not the way that can modern campaigning works modern campaigning is a long haul especially when you know the dates so uh and that's what we do we know what the dates in a municipal election so
SPEAKER_00: so
Carter: it's been a it's been a tough run trying to make people actually care in edmonton especially okay
Zain: okay in calgary
Carter: okay in calgary we were able to take advantage of that of that uh that festival feeling um and target especially the kind of the 10 000 people that people talk to um rather than trying to focus on the entire city we were able to focus in on a smaller subset of the population and really just be everywhere that they were and
Carter: and so i think it's very much like that montreal experience that you're describing well
Zain: well so let's let's let's focus in on your strategy because i think montreal strategy is slightly different because what i'm seeing here is a lot of third party you know labor sort of uh yeah fyi activism there's no ongoing election at least as far as i can tell um nothing for the political signage indicates that that is is is on the you know happening here in that regard um at least in the near term future I mean, like October of the 25 calendar year, right? They're going to have something very shortly with their provincials.
Carter: 25 calendar
Zain: But, Carter, you said focus in on the 10,000. I think what's happening here in Montreal is more like public awareness, not necessarily activation. What were you trying to do with the 10,000? Because I don't know if it was simply awareness. You could tell me it simply was at this stage to get people aware of your party and your leading sort of mayoral candidate. Or what were you trying to do? What was your goal with, like, 10,000? Talk to me about that.
Carter: I think that there is a subset of the population that cares or pays attention, and the rest of the population asks that group who they should vote for.
Carter: It's kind of like, you know, within your friend group, there's someone who knows something about cars, and when you're trying to replace your 2005 Corolla, you go to— Never needs replacing.
Zain: It's kind of
Carter: Never needs replacing, just lasts forever. um but you go to uh the person who understands a lot about cars and you can ask them that question who you know what car should i buy is there a dealership that you recommend that kind of stuff um the
Carter: same thing holds true in politics there's a person who knows about politics in everybody's friend group a large number of them are listeners to this podcast and the listeners to this podcast will be asked uh prior to an election hey who should we vote for uh who should we not vote for Is there someone that is particularly good? Is there someone that's particularly bad? And
Carter: that's who we were trying to target. In order to do so, you kind of have to reach a larger audience, but the only ones who are going to pay attention. And this is where I question the broad scale strategy of trying to just generally create name recognition or awareness on an issue. I don't think that people become aware of an issue cheaply. They become aware of an issue when you're spending tons
Carter: tons of money. So, in politics in Canada, we have decided that having a ton of money in politics kind of is against what we believe. We should have that discussion someday in real time because I think that it's really hurting Canada. But we've
Carter: taken money out of politics, so doing an awareness campaign to the general population is
Carter: is virtually impossible.
Zain: Yeah, we've talked about the fractured media market. We've talked about in order to get awareness, paid is one of those routes. and if it isn't then you're potentially a freelancer the algorithm trying to get clicks and engagement in a way that may not necessarily be consistent or constant with the brand that you want to create or the policies you want to promote but what a giant tech company dictates is engaging and keeps people interested like so there's there's all those struggles which we've we've talked about either in broad strokes or on a specific sort of episode i do buy into your sort of like this is what the 10 000 are we need to access them but walk through carter how that's going in many people are dubbing and you can even fight me on the the what i'm about to say a sleepy election oh
Carter: no it's sleepy so
Zain: no it's
Zain: so explain to me why it's sleepy like why do we have sleepy elections and does this strategy fundamentally change of this influencer style strategy of collecting the the hyper engaged getting them out and getting the word about why your person or your party uh so when they are called in in in a mere sort of 60 90 days whenever that might be 87 days there you go to give a recommendation to their friends um
Carter: 87 days there
Zain: that they spit out the answer that you want them to what does the impacts of a sleepy election have on that strategy and why are we in a sleepy election carter because
Carter: because we're always in a sleepy election are we
Zain: we
Carter: we people
Carter: people misremember i think how how elections actually unfold at a municipal level level i have a graphic that i often show people of when we've had web searches on the joe t gondek campaign or when we had uh people actually landing on our website we barely would would would crack 150 people on a website in any given day prior to the election period no one gave a fuck they they didn't care they don't go to the website they don't do any research and then on the day of the election, the 24-hour period, maybe 36, 48 hours before the election, all of a sudden, 100,000 people click on the website to try and confirm their pre-existing biases about Jyoti. That's the methodology by which we run elections. We run elections. We spend hundreds of thousands of dollars trying to influence the 10,000 people that are going going to be recommending to their 150 000 friends who who
Carter: they should be voting for and then all of those people go to the website just hours before they vote if not while they're standing in line going to vote um to confirm their pre-existing biases meaning what their friend told them zane told me i should vote for joe t i'm going to take a look oh her website looks good i'll vote for her there
Carter: there is no other there is no other deeper level this
Zain: this might be a good opportunity for for me me to tell you as a person probably in our network that is paying attention that um you should vote for jody oh
Carter: okay thank you very much just i'm just saying you
Zain: very much just i'm just saying you know that's just a recommendation no that's uh it's very nice of you to tell
Carter: no that's uh it's very nice of you to tell to tell me to vote for someone who fired me that's very kind i just want to let you know you know really really i'm able
Zain: you know really really i'm able you're
Carter: you're
Zain: you're
Carter: you're really
Zain: really dialed in on what i was hoping i mean i'm unlike you it'll put that behind me
Carter: really dialed in on what i was hoping i
Zain: oh thank you that's great so we'll let you know carter on
Carter: you that's great so
Carter: we'll let you know carter
Carter: on the merits well that's interesting on
Zain: well that's
Carter: on
Carter: on the merits is not a really discussion because
Zain: on the merits is not a really discussion because i am the one that does pay attention to politics uh in this uh in this scenario carter so oh okay thank you very much thank you i think you're too in it i think you're doing it i guess what i'm saying um
SPEAKER_00: oh
Carter: oh okay thank you very much thank you i think you're
Zain: um okay listen
Carter: okay listen if anybody does want to come out and volunteer from our listener group they should uh they should this is the time uh you don't have to just wait for one of us to run cory right you don't
Zain: listen if
Carter: don't have to wait for one of us to run how many Why did people stay just waiting for the other shoe
SPEAKER_02: how many Why
Zain: Why did people stay just waiting for the other shoe to drop, which is just one of the podcasts to one? This podcast was created for the entire ability to hand it off to Shannon.
Zain: Exactly. She does solo episodes. You
Carter: Exactly. She does
Carter: You know what? Based on the feedback that we're getting, they would gladly have solo episodes of Shannon. They would.
Zain: have solo episodes of Shannon. They would. What a revelation she has been. And I did want to spend some time when she's back, by the way. This is more of a reminder to myself, which is then a reminder to everyone to talk about our NDP, federal NDP leadership race. She's got thoughts. I've got thoughts on how that's shaping up.
Carter: What a revelation
Zain: But we won't do it now. Carter, you're— Good, because I
Carter: you're— Good, because I haven't got a thought in my pretty little head. Okay,
Zain: head. Okay, good. Yeah.
Carter: Yeah. We'll
Zain: We'll educate you. Thank you. Potentially in violent agreement, I suspect. Tell me this. You were two with Poster Strategy. You and Annalise talked about this. Yeah.
Carter: Thank you.
Zain: Yeah.
Carter: Yeah.
Zain: Success?
Carter: very much so unbelievable return on investment walk
Zain: walk people for those who need to get a chance walk people to what you're trying to do why did you get media from it and what the long tale of it has been now that now that you have a bit more time give
Carter: people for
Zain: give me a sense of what the long i'm really curious what the long tail of a marketing strategy like that is your answer might be like there isn't none we moved on but walk you through it no
Carter: no i mean the short the short Short piece
Carter: of it is that I read the side bylaw again, as I do, as people do, and found an opportunity to put up posters prior to the writ.
Zain: Political campaign material. Absolutely.
Carter: Absolutely.
Zain: Posters.
Carter: Posters.
Zain: Posters, sorry. We
Carter: We have to be very careful in the language that we use. They have to be smaller than 0.12 meters square, and you can put them up for up to two weeks. so we put up uh point nine point zero nine meters square um uh
Carter: posters and uh they went up on the the friday
Carter: i started the monday before stampede the stampede parade they were up for the whole parade they were up for everything else um people were talking about them uh people recognized them is one of my type of tactics um and then there were some haters too but i don't mind haters haters are great because if you're doing something that's that's powerful enough to generate hate you're doing something that's power not powerful enough to to uh engender uh positive attributes as well so since then everybody was talking about us during the stampede uh the stampede was fantastic everybody was talking about us they were talking about the science along
SPEAKER_02: the stampede
Zain: stampede
Zain: were talking about the science along you had these these posters and you put them out on lampposts is that a fair yeah
Carter: yeah they're they can go up on unpainted lampposts in the city of calgary and
Zain: and you you hit them up in in key writings maybe even beyond that you can walk us through the strategy yeah but they were visible you had the hot pink with your black and white um your party brand um
Carter: yeah but they
Zain: um
Zain: um so they got noticed and you got very much so and
Carter: you got very much so and
Zain: and then
Carter: then the media called because the media are like hey this is a new tactic and these people have called us and told us that they're illegal and
Carter: i said that's interesting not illegal and Did
Zain: and Did you almost want that conversation? Like, if I'm you, I almost want that conversation. Because remind me, four years ago, didn't you have a very similar, what
Zain: what the fuck is he doing with these four planes?
Carter: planes? These are illegal.
Carter: These are illegal. You've
Zain: are illegal. You've literally not only seen this movie, you have both directed, produced, and written and shot this movie four years ago.
Carter: Oh, yeah. It's the exact same play. Different tactic, but the exact same play. And the play is, the media go, go hey some people are outraged let's find out if these people have any reason to be outraged normally what they would do is just write that these people are outraged and never refer back to the bylaw but because it's me they now refer back to the bylaw and find out whether or not the bylaw has actually uh been broken because they want to hold me to account right if i'm doing right right
Zain: if i'm doing right right so if i've done something wrong yeah
Carter: if i've done something wrong yeah
Zain: yeah you're using your reputation yeah
Carter: yeah you're
Zain: yeah
Carter: yeah and
Zain: and leaning into it is that absolutely even beyond your candidate's reputation right
Zain: right right because this is like fucking stephen carter is a subgenre i mean we explore it on this podcast significantly but it is also something that the alberta media uh
Zain: uh seem to be interested in every once in a while well
Carter: well and it's fascinating the same type of loophole i mean people call it a loophole right it's a loophole you call it a loophole it's
Zain: call it a loophole it's
Carter: it's not really a loophole it's literally how the law is written you said
Zain: you said right you used opportunity i heard you say opportunity today but you used the the word loophole it
Carter: said right you
Carter: it
Carter: it is a you know so there's but the edmonton doesn't have the same the same uh opportunity let's
Zain: let's say together so
Carter: anyways you know it if if there's i mean but edmonton has different sign rules right so large signs are going out the last week in the last seven days in edmonton um we're you know we're putting out uh 350 large signs over the next couple of weeks that's a lot of signs and they're going out because that's okay in edmonton back
Zain: they're going out
Zain: back to this question the media call you are you like you know tim curry at home alone like you're just smiling like like the grinch when people are like this is illegal because you know exactly where this is headed oh
Carter: oh i was so happy i
Carter: i mean i was so happy because it generates it it it if all the media pick up i mean we know that the media is not as big as it used to be but when all the media pick up a story a lot of people see that story um it may not be 1.2 million people but it might be 200 000 people in total that are going to see that story from the social media and the broadcast time um and we got significant feedback and all the messaging was look at this clever act look at this clever tactic that was used and yes it is legal and that you couldn't have asked for better messaging and then in terms of the long tail yes i want
Zain: yes i want to get this is exactly what i want to get to you know here
Carter: know here we are we're we're two weeks after the stampede has ended we can 10 days whatever the number of days is and people are still talking about the posters so
Zain: so
Carter: so
Zain: so my
Carter: my
Zain: my question for you okay i'm not going to push back but i'm almost going to try to like mind meld with you right so you have this tactic it's successful do
Zain: you need an escalation on it or can you live live on the the drifts of it sort of thing so what i'm trying to say is that if this was your starting pistol and i don't to be clear for transparency i'm not on your campaign i don't know right yeah yeah
Carter: yeah yeah
Zain: yeah i don't know what you're up to you can disclose whatever you're you're feel comfortable with but
Zain: but you
Zain: know to me i look at that as okay this
Zain: was a pistol we got some heat we got some light we got some candidate name recognition now as soon as this is done the chances that more people are going to forget about this and that they're not actually going to get the drift that we need to we need an escalation are you thinking of that yeah
Carter: i'm thinking of what's the what's next right and the what's next is a period of time when do i need to generate momentum right so you circle some dates on the calendar you say these are my momentum weeks i'm going to generate momentum in these weeks self-imposed self
Carter: self-imposed momentum development but okay now what do i need to do to actually generate momentum in that time and then um most of what i'm going to need to do to generate momentum isn't going to be as cheap as doing those posters right
Zain: right right right and i was going to ask you that because it's not as simple as being like round two of posters or lawn signs or let's find another as you would say opportunity and or loophole somewhere and do something else and i'm not going to not mention as an insult gimmicky to be able to break through like Absolutely. This is why I call it an escalation rather than the next thing. And I think we might be saying the same thing, but to me it is an escalation, whether it's your dollar time resources and, frankly, eating the steaks. You could have fucked up Stampede, no cost is what I would say, or minimal cost.
Carter: would say, or minimal cost.
Carter: I've talked to my candidates about doing a Lady Godiva ride through parks if it would generate us enough attention, right? Like, what does it take to generate attention in today's society, And are you willing to do it if it generates the right type of it? I know Lady Godiva Ride is probably not going to work with Brian Thiessen, but it might work with Tim Cartmell. Here's
Zain: Here's the thing, though. I actually may challenge you on this by agreeing with you. I
Zain: am starting to believe that attention is its own thing divorced from profile, divorced from policy, and divorced from vision. that
Zain: capturing attention good or bad i almost look at his attention as being purely neutral sounds insane regardless if it's good or bad and it's its own thing that opens up channels to allow those other things so it's not that you have profile which gets you attention which is what we call a star candidate it's do you have attention grabbing qualities that allow you then maybe one day have people either on your terms here about your profile and like we might might just be purely in an attention vehicle and
Zain: everything else that used to get you attention your profile your candidacy your policy your vision your um you know your brand fuck that all up the window i
Zain: almost like attention has been put first and if you can do that then you may even have a chance to do the rest and 80 of those people they may not matter because you're crowding out everyone else yeah
Carter: yeah i mean if you get attention like this is what i love so much about the posters idea was that the post why i like
Zain: the post why i like to pure attention it
Carter: it
Carter: it generated attention but it also tied to the brand like literally the visual the visual of the brand was reinforced by the tactic of the attention gathering device right the the poster was the controversy was the attention gathering device the poster itself was the brand development and brand push i really like that i I really like that the brand stood out so boldly on the attention-gathering device.
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SPEAKER_00: I'm Terri Hart, and this is The Heart of It All, a podcast about navigating the messy, beautiful, complicated realities of caregiving for our aging loved ones. Every week, I sit down with experts, caregivers, and families to talk honestly about what it means to support an aging parent. if you're a caregiver or you want to know what to expect when you inevitably become one you're in the right place the heart of it all that's heart spelled h-a-r-t new episodes every week wherever you get your podcasts a
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Zain: carny i want to hit up some carny stuff i
Carter: i think we should i think that august 1st is coming so here's
Zain: here's a framework that i've stolen um but it was really compelling and it was provided by one shot telly barrett so credit her okay
Carter: okay she
Zain: she was saying uh
Zain: earlier this week i believe about the
Zain: we can talk about blowing past deadlines but her framework was simple and i wanted to get you to reflect on it which is the framework of our canadians from a pure political perspective in
Zain: a penalized carny for a deal that has tariffs or
Zain: or penalized carny for a deal that comes later and doesn't have tariffs in it. Because now we're starting to talk about this potential of tariffs being in it. So the frame she had was tariffs or stability.
Zain: Digest some tariffs or no tariffs, I should say, in a deal, regardless of how long that takes, or stability now. And it's similar to a conversation we had earlier, which is do you take the Keir Starmer first deal available, sign it, so you take the political hit and just move on? Because the guy's and nut job and who the hell knows what he's going to try to do tomorrow to cover the epstein files and you might be a target of that um
Zain: um or do you actually hold out to have no tariffs where do you think we are as a country right now from a vibe check and from a just a pure sort of political instinct perspective if you're advising the pm to be like sir here's the play yeah
Carter: i mean we're already subjected to tariffs so it's essentially status quo with
Carter: with potentially more my
Zain: more my
Zain: my
Zain: my worry worry is that Carney sold such a large suite of promises and I
Carter: I actually read it the other way interesting I don't think I don't think he's sold us anything I think he's warned us that we're dealing with a lunatic and we're going to try and get the best possible deal for Canada and he's always said I'm going to put the best possible deal for Canadians on the table and that's what I'm going to do and it doesn't matter how long it takes it doesn't matter what the outcome is I'm going to get the best possible deal. That may, he signaled earlier this week, include tariffs. It may not include tariffs. Trump signals, maybe they're just going to have to learn to live with tariffs. Maybe that's our deal. I mean, all of this is just insanity that ultimately clouds what
Carter: is the expected outcome on August the 1st, August 15th, September the 1st, you know, four years from now when And Donald Trump seeks and retains his position as the president of the United States for an unprecedented third term.
Zain: It's OK.
Zain: So if you had to choose, though, no
Zain: tariffs or stability, you would choose stability. I
Carter: would choose no tariffs.
Carter: Really?
Carter: Yeah. Because we're leading
Zain: Because we're leading to just being like we're already paying tariffs. So we're
Carter: we're already paying tariffs. So who the fuck cares? Let's hold on to what we've already got and keep negotiating until such time as we get. Because at some point, the United States is going to start hurting from these tariffs. And they haven't yet, but they will soon. And when they start to hurt from their own tariffs, that's when you're actually going to be in a position where you can get your better deal. Now, do we have to hurt too? Absolutely, we have to hurt. But we're going to hurt anyways. How well
Zain: we're
Zain: Now,
Zain: Now, do
Zain: But we're
Zain: How well do you think Carney prepared us for the pain?
Carter: I don't think he's prepared us particularly well for the pain. And I don't necessarily blame him.
Zain: And I don't necessarily blame
Zain: Why? Because I blame him for two things. One of which might be disproven, at least from some recent polling, in the sense that I blame him for, thing number one, not being clear enough around how we're supposed to treat our friends in the United States. What I haven't appreciated is that Canadians still largely have a disdain for America. I thought we needed more marching orders. Turns out I might be wrong about that. So I'm willing to concede that. There's some new advocates in other polling. People are, like, fucking pissed. Even here in Montreal, I'll tell you something. thing no
Zain: no knowing a lot of american comedians here and chatting with a lot of my friends who are comedians in the united states or canadians who live in the u.s the amount of those folks who want to do work in canada who are actually saying okay i only live in la i am not american to be clear i'm coming back i'm making a statement i'm doing a dev deal with cbc i'm trying to like do a writer's room and i'm gonna make it fucking work through zoom even with folks a lot of these stories right a lot of people like yeah a lot of the canadian comedians here like wearing like like explicit Canada paraphernalia to like make a point right uh to the industry to the comedy industry to make a point industry largely gravitated towards LA and New York to kind of be like I'm I'm you're on my turf like you're you're at my home like this is yeah I know I've it's very fascinating and and this is a space I I'm not particularly intimate with in in the same way that some of these comedians are but I know well um that a lot of these people like are looking to come back and make and are in that era so i might have been wrong more broadly around the instructions to canadians around how we're supposed to feel there might actually be more organic movement and growth in that and canadians may have already made up their minds at least for the for the short term on that so that's thing number one but thing number two he
Carter: yeah a lot
Carter: I know I've
Carter: it's
Zain: has not particularly communicated well around the pains and shannon's talked about this a bit as well that certain job functions are facing right now but the ongoing pain that we might feel in terms terms of what this could look like very rapidly and if yeah but it's very rapidly and isn't that the job of a prime minister not
Carter: not necessarily why
Zain: not necessarily why
Carter: why because the job of the prime minister is to not get blamed right
Carter: right that's the job of the prime minister if you start floating out all the negative things that could happen that's
Zain: negative things that could happen that's such a cynical view though have
Carter: you is this your first time talking to me no
Zain: no this is cynical
Carter: this is cynical this is politics is cynical the the objective is to make sure the canadian population knows who to blame and that is trump you might
Zain: sure the canadian population
Zain: knows who to blame and that is trump you might keep going that's
Carter: that's trump trump's the person to blame trump's the person who's bringing the pain not mark carney mark carney's trying to get the best possible deal for canadians and he just needs to keep he just needs to keep repeating that on you
Carter: you know on
Carter: repeat all day long every day that's his message i am trying to get the best possible deal for canadians and the subtext of that line is but you know i'm dealing with a lunatic
Zain: okay so we are in agreement but to me almost sounds like you are trying to do the job of pm at our minimum that you're almost assessing that there's a risk for preparing canadians what's the risk the risk is that what i would say is i agree like our mutual friend bosinko would say a harper was dealing with an american financial recession session and canadians recognize that this was in harper's crisis they gave him another man i
SPEAKER_02: that there's a risk
Carter: the
SPEAKER_02: the risk is that what
Carter: what
Zain: feel similarly and i've been convinced similarly that that carney's runway on the america deal is much longer than we think it is and
Carter: and there's
Zain: and there's a wider birth than we think it is i've been convinced of that even though i initially figured that this was going to be a shorter window and he needs to deliver um and as many gripes as i have on the comms but i agree election held tomorrow next week next month i would next year i predict if it's still trump and it's still carney that this This is the situation where he's not going to get blamed. What is the downside risk then, knowing that, having a historical example to prove that, to not be the communicator-in-chief to let people know around what could happen? That sense of bond, unity, solidarity that was created during the election, to not keep Canadians prepared, to not have the support of the conversations around that. I don't see the risk. Do you know what's going to happen? Lay it on me. Walk me through it. No, I'm
SPEAKER_02: convinced of
Carter: of that
SPEAKER_02: that even
Carter: through it. No, I'm actually asking, I don't know what's going to happen. I don't know which industries he's going to pick on. I don't know if he's going to shut down the auto industry, if he's going to shut down softwood lumber. I don't know what he's going to do to the oil and gas community. All of these are different threats with different scenarios with different people that we're going to be in pain. Your last
Zain: Your last 30 seconds there, what
Zain: what you just said, in
Carter: you
Zain: in a prime ministerial voice, isn't that a value that our PM could add? I
Carter: don't think so. I think it just worries the population needlessly when we don't know what the outcome is going to look like. That is one good
Zain: what the outcome is going to look like. That is one good point, worries the population, because it's so unpredictable, it could create more uncertainty. Okay, that one you've sold me on. Okay. Sure. But I still think a PM that could say, like, here's the stakes. I need to be clear about what's happening. I'm bringing you along, even though if you're not going to expose details. But we don't necessarily know where the targets of this are going to be. But if he's got a plan of choosing a quicker
Carter: Okay. Sure.
Zain: deal
Zain: or a no-tariff deal, I think he needs to be able to kind of communicate why he's going down either of these pathways. So
Carter: So let's totally agree with you. When does he communicate that? And I don't think he communicates that on July the 25th. I think he communicates that on July 31st or August 1st. Okay,
Zain: communicates that on July
Zain: July 31st
Zain: Okay, I was going to say with an August 1st deadline, when is that path? I think it's right
Carter: I think it's right on the deadline. I think he says, we've hit the deadline. deadline i do not have a deal here is why i do not and that is why his communication and that's when his communication goes out until that until the 11th hour until
SPEAKER_03: that until the
Carter: the negotiations break down at midnight on the final day of the deadline you don't you don't put you're always cautiously optimistic the deal is going to be struck you don't need to say well now i'm not negotiating negotiating any longer i'm waiting you know this has fallen apart i'm going to i mean
Carter: trump's trump's trump you
Carter: you need everybody knows that everything could fall apart in 15 minutes you don't need to be spending a lot of time in advance and you don't in a normal negotiation which i will concede this is not you
Carter: say we are going to negotiate right till the end of the deadline and you do that with the expectation of success don't put yourself in a failing position prior to the moment you need to fail okay
Zain: i'm liking this i actually want to use this as a what let's just make one assumption which i think is a safe one we're not going to get a deal by august 1st i
Carter: i think you're correct flesh
Zain: flesh out for me what does august 1st look like for carney tactically too because
Zain: because i like this idea of communicating on august 1st in a principled uniform way but you also have the one additional challenge carter it's august fucking first and And even when, as the first half of our show today was talking about attention capture, et cetera, even
Zain: even the prime minister has an attention capture issue on August 1st, right?
Zain: I mean, it's the long week, heading into the long weekend.
Carter: mean, it's the long week, heading into the long weekend. Totally, family day
Zain: Totally, family day for us in Alberta, like, oh, I don't know what the equivalent is across the country, but I believe you're right. It's a long weekend everywhere.
Zain: So
Zain: So even the PM with the government budget and all the paid media that money can buy has a communications challenge. So walk me through where he should focus his energies on on August 1st. Should that be the deadline he chooses to communicate or should that be the date he chooses to communicate? And
Zain: And we're assuming August 1st is like a standard weekday. I don't know if that is the case. It's a Friday. Yeah. Okay, great. So let's just call it a Friday or let's use the 31st, the Thursday as a placeholder for this date, the August 1st date. But what
Carter: It's a Friday. Yeah. Okay,
Carter: are you thinking about
Zain: about this?
Carter: this?
Carter: Visual communications, not actual communication, not verbal communications. I would have him on a plane. I would have him going into I'd have him taking over the role of chief negotiator in some classic Stephen
Zain: some classic Stephen Carter show. Don't tell.
Carter: Don't. Yeah. Show. Don't tell. And put them put put them in the position where he's on the plane to the United States. Right. Where he's he's he's gone down to actually have a meeting. He's not taking a telephone call with the president of the United States. he's on the he's on the the he's on the white house steps getting
Zain: put them put put
Carter: a meeting spending 15 minutes even if it's only 15 minutes with the president of the united states trying to reach a deal trying to make the last minute assertion that this is what the country needs both the united states and canada that should be his his visual show don't tell moment and then afterwards
Carter: afterwards any price
Zain: afterwards any price to pay going
Zain: going down and not putting in that level of effort and not getting a deal I understand letting the deadline lapse and saying we don't have a deal in a passive voice, but putting in the E for effort, going down there, doing the thing, and then at, like, 12.01 a.m. on August 2nd being like, we don't have anything. Like, does that actually create
Zain: create problems strategically for Carmen more so than it does for you? I don't think so. I mean,
Carter: it does for you? I don't think so. I mean, I think that it could. I think that you make
Carter: make a good point on the, you know, the failing piece. But you're going to fail. fail fail in such a way that you gave it your all for canada fail
Carter: so that people feel you did your very best for me to
Zain: to be clear he has not added that extra oomph on the other deadlines he's just blown past them and then told us either that day or the day a few days after feels
Zain: feels different
Carter: feels different this time now doesn't it first
Carter: first of all it is the middle of it is the middle of august and he does need to have things that are going to be shared on tiktok not on things that that are going to be shared on Twitter, right? He needs actual visuals that everybody can just get behind and see on their own social media platforms. Everybody's going to share this particular reel.
Zain: it is the middle of
Zain: So you feel like he just needs to show a bit of progress and effort on this thing?
Carter: I think he needs to show that he's working on our best interest, and that's it.
Carter: That's all. That's
Zain: That's
Carter: That's
Zain: That's it.
Carter: That's it. I don't think he needs to come home with a deal, and I don't think that he needs to be aloof on the deal either and just roll past it. I think he needs to, you know, this is the standing on the White House lawn with the boombox trying to, you know, win over the partner here in Donald Trump.
Zain: What do you think Carney is on this? I'm asking you to not purely speculate as we wrap up this thing. Do
Zain: you think he's at a no tariffs, like repeal, no deal is good enough if it includes these, what I will call the new tariffs, the Trump tariffs, right? right? No deal is good if it has any of these tariffs, or do you think he's in a headspace right now to say, maybe like my friend Keir Starmer, I just sign the best available deal within this summer period and get this thing over with so I can do my other nation building stuff?
Carter: I mean, it really depends on what the tariffs are. I mean, if it's a tariff on a couple of smaller industries that are a little frustrating that we can have retaliatory tariffs over, then maybe we do it um if it's a one-sided deal where we can't even put you know where where trump is putting is is demanding that we put um american liquor back on the shelves uh you know and and we can't even have our little protests um then i think that it would go too far
Zain: okay
Carter: i
Zain: i tend to agree
Carter: agree with you well
Carter: look at that i did a good job i did a good job i took you from the skeptic to believer this
Zain: i took you from the skeptic to believer this
Zain: this is part of the show where you get to ask me an over under in a lightning round question carter this is the the summer oh i get
Carter: oh i get to ask you anything
Zain: anything but any topic okay
Carter: so what do you think the odds are what um out of a hundred percent so what are for odds that we have a deal on the hundred percent donald
Zain: on the hundred
Zain: hundred percent donald trump is going to bring prescription prices down by thousand percent in the united states that's
Carter: that's pretty impressive that's pretty good we only work on hundred percent models here um but do you think there's a deal on august the first no
Zain: no i i think it's two percent like
Zain: like it's a 98 chance it doesn't happen um and also like to be honest there's there's a part of me and not to kind of turn it back on to you
Zain: but i
Zain: wonder if they're thinking about like a deal being signed they have to control the comms on that right
Zain: right like they can't just be like a deal is signed here's the raw text of said deal they
Zain: like if a deal is signed with the americans there's has got to be like a latency period in which the deal is signed they gotta like each country's got to do a sales job sort of thing right and i've heard no indication that a sales job is being prepped of any kind there's no leak around what some or no or no like telegraphing of a baseline x percent tariff on y item or industry that gives me a sense that any of this comms work is being planned to set the stage for any of this now we're july 25th so you know five days a lifetime in politics but it's july 25th in a summer period in which you need a lot more advanced time to have time for people to understand that oh yeah this might be the third time i've heard of this even that's the first official time i've heard of this on august 1st or 2nd so those
Zain: those
SPEAKER_02: those additional
Zain: those additional pieces have me down in like low single digits that's kind of where i'm at does
Carter: additional
Carter: does
Zain: does
Carter: does
Zain: does that compute for where you're at and perhaps even the reason why yeah
Carter: yeah i think so yeah
Zain: yeah okay
Zain: okay yeah
Carter: yeah i'm wondering i'm wondering uh how pierre polyev responds on the first of august oh
Zain: oh
Carter: oh man
Zain: man who gives a shit yeah
Carter: yeah
Carter: you're in that space yeah
Carter: i kind
Zain: kind of am
Carter: am i
Zain: i
Carter: i
Carter: don't really know if
Zain: don't really know if pierre is a character in this story i
Zain: think pierre's got a much larger problem you
Zain: think he has to be a character in this story don't you think oh he's gonna try to be a character in the story don't get me wrong that's not what i mean i'm not but it's like jugmeet
Carter: but it's like jugmeet singh suddenly coming up and talking about budgets pierre
Zain: budgets pierre polyev is the weird jugmeet singh mom that's a fucking great analogy he kind of feels feels like a third party right now.
Carter: of feels
Zain: The Conservatives are official opposition, no doubt about it, but he, Pierre
Zain: Poliev, kind of feels like a third party leader right now, competing for a third party race for the seat before he can officially get back. So I almost, to me,
Zain: compound that with all the ills and the punching through issues we've talked about summer. Pierre
Zain: Poliev's not a character in this story for me.
Carter: Fascinating.
Carter: Fascinating. We'll leave it at that.
Zain: Fascinating. We'll leave it at that.
Zain: Stephen Carter, we did it. Let's wrap on episode 1880 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Velgey with me as always, Stephen Carter. And maybe Carter will rope someone in next time, but we shall see.
Zain: Regardless. Yeah,
Carter: Yeah, I mean, everybody's on vacation. I don't like our chances.
Zain: Yeah, I'm going to London for two weeks, but here we go. Maybe this is not a great time to break this to you. Where
Carter: Where are you going?
Zain: I'm going to London.
Zain: When?
Zain: Sunday.
Carter: When
Zain: When
Carter: When
Zain: When the fuck
Carter: fuck are we going to record a fucking episode?
Zain: Someone will see you next time.
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