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Zain: This
Zain: is The Strategist, episode 1874. My name is Zane Velgey. With me, as always, Shannon Phillips, Stephen Carter. How are you? Happy Sunday. It
Carter: is a happy Sunday, Zane. I'm here with you. It's already like 10.30 at night here in Ottawa. Ottawa. I'm up late. This is so exciting for me. What are you doing
Zain: What are you doing in Ottawa, Carter?
Carter: I'm making the scene. Are you building a pipeline?
Zain: the scene. Are you building a pipeline? If you're not building a pipeline, what the fuck are you doing? With your
Carter: With
Shannon: With your bare hands.
Carter: your bare hands. It's early investment days, but yeah, I'm making a pipeline of investment to my bank account. That's what I'm doing. That's
Zain: what I'm doing.
Zain: That's what I heard Ottawa's about these days. Investment
Carter: these days.
Carter: Investment to my bank account. That's what it's all about. I'm
Carter: trying to get some of that sweet, sweet money that Shannon Phillips has.
Shannon: Well, I hate to disappoint you, Carter, but it's a nice day here but it is uh smoky outside once again as cory hogan reminds us a
Shannon: a lot of smoke days in calgary and western canada these days and today is another one of them sorry to bring the the opening banter down guys no that's good this is very cory hogan of you i like that dark cloud coming in you know i like that embodied
Zain: down guys no that's good this is very cory hogan of you i like that dark cloud
Zain: i like that embodied
Zain: embodied his spirit in some ways too which is good you
Shannon: ways too which
Shannon: you remember that dark cloud that used to follow the station wagon of the neighbors on the flintstones Jones, the Weirdleys, and they would drive and the dark cloud would follow them. That's me. That's me on this podcast.
Carter: Weirdleys, and
Carter: is
Shannon: is you on the podcast,
Carter: is you on the podcast, bringing us down with a dark cloud. I prefer Carter's public
Shannon: I
Zain: I prefer
Shannon: prefer
Zain: prefer Carter's public tax dollar money grab instead, I have to say. That sounded more appetizing to me. I'm going
Carter: I have
Carter: going to get the Department of National Defense to invest into this podcast. I think they should be our next podcast. What's your contact at the Department
Zain: I think they should be our next podcast. What's your contact at the Department of Finance? Sorry, Shannon, this is a bit inside, but we have a contact that is at the Department of finance that does not want us to mention him on air and carter i'm just struggling for his name i can't
Carter: can't remember his name was it uh it started with a g let's go with gourd or tim sure
Carter: that neither of those is correct yeah okay this is good but yeah we had a we had a contact in the department didn't we get him fired i think we did we may have gotten
Zain: i think we did we may have gotten him fired shannon you know welcome to the podcast we get public servants fired on this show i don't know if you want to speak to that um do you want to mention any public service yeah
Carter: shannon you know
Carter: do you want to mention any public service yeah for
Zain: yeah for sure do you have a do you have have any issues with that and b any public servants you want to actively get fired right now oh
Shannon: i have a list i'll have to go back and and look at the list that i made before the 2023 election and i can wait those people are carter i can scrap
Zain: i can wait those people
Zain: people are carter i can scrap the show i can wait this is yeah we can do it probably better you have to
Shannon: yeah we can do it probably better you have to press pause and find it in my google docs but oh no you haven't listened to the show we'll
Zain: but oh no you haven't listened to the show we'll fill the time we'll fill the time no problem you just look in the
Shannon: we'll
Carter: we'll fill the time no problem you just look in the google docs we'll start talking about other things it's
Shannon: it's possible i guessed that list after uh but i did I did make one. Make no mistake. Was I on the list? No, you weren't ever in the public service. The public service, it's a meritocracy. I was there for a minute.
Carter: Was I on the list?
Carter: ever in the public
Carter: meritocracy.
Zain: meritocracy. I was there for a minute. No,
Shannon: No, that wasn't in the public service, Carter. The public service is a meritocracy. You wouldn't be in the public service.
Zain: service is a meritocracy.
Zain: service. How would you have been in there? Did you work for a premier, and who was it?
Carter: I'm not mentioning her name anymore. Now that we've got a fucking count that goes on the videos. The
Shannon: The more important question is, Carter, for how long?
Zain: Yeah, for how long? That's true. It
Zain: It was
Carter: was for six whole months. You
Zain: was for
Shannon: for six
Zain: six
Shannon: six
Shannon: You know
Zain: You know what? You guys are already getting to my main subject. let's move it on to our first segment. Our first segment, is it love or are we done? Guys, Elon Musk and Donald Trump are fighting.
Zain: And I don't want to be another one of those podcasts that talks about two toddler man children fighting about an inevitable fight. However, I
Zain: do want to talk about Stephen Carter and Shannon Phillips, how
Zain: to win a political breakup. And
Zain: we've got two folks here representing two very different perspectives on this. Shannon, And you've been an elected official who may or may not have broken up with people politically, staffers, otherwise, you don't have to name names or even name scenarios if you don't want to. Carter, your history on this subject matter is well known. And we were just discussing it again. It's a it's a but
Zain: I want to talk about in
Zain: light of what's happening with Elon and Donald Trump. What's some of the rules that that kind of go on in terms of trying to fight well, break up well and preserve a sense of your political upside, Carter. And so I'm going to go back and forth and you're just going to try to throw rules at me. Just simple, easy to understand rules from an elected official side and then Carter from a practitioner, staffer, whatever you want to call it, side, in terms of how to win a political breakup.
SPEAKER_00: breakup.
Zain: Does that make sense? And if it doesn't, doesn't to me either. We'll figure it out as we go, Carter.
SPEAKER_00: And if
SPEAKER_00: if
Carter: if it doesn't,
Carter: It's a big show, man. This is going to be a big one. Oh,
Zain: Oh, I know. I can sense it
Carter: know. I can sense it already. Big numbers on this show.
Zain: show. Okay, Carter. So the rap on you is that this has happened a few times. You have had public fights, but maybe I'll ask you this. Have you had something, clearly not as vitriolic, but as public as what's going on with Elon and Donald Trump right now? I
Zain: I mean,
Carter: mean, my exit from Gondek was pretty public. My exit from Redford wasn't very public because the Redford exit followed more of the rules. The first rule that I'm going to say is that no one generally gets fired from a political office. You leave to go spend more time with your family or to go spend more time on your podcast or to go and spend more time exploring other ventures. By the way, 2011, if
Shannon: because
Zain: the way, 2011, if you had gotten fired to spend more time on your podcast, people know that's code for you definitely got fired. That was not a thing.
Carter: That
Shannon: That
Carter: That was not
Shannon: not a thing. Today? Sure.
Carter: thing. Today? Sure. When did we start it? 2012? 2016?
Zain: 2015. 2015.
Carter: 2015. Holy smokes. But also earlier. Also
Zain: But also earlier. Also much earlier, to be clear. Like decades earlier, for sure. Episode one
Carter: decades earlier,
Carter: Episode one with Corey the toddler. Yeah. Nonetheless, I mean, normally
Zain: with
Zain: Yeah.
Carter: the first rule is that no one gets fired. You find a reason and you find a way out. I mean, I think even Jerry Butts left under his own terms when he was kind of taking some of the beatings for Justin Trudeau and the Wee scandal.
Carter: Was it Wee scandal or was it another scandal? No, it was SNC
Shannon: it another scandal? No, it was SNC-Lavalin. And the Jody Wilson-Raybould. When JWR went and leaked confidential cabinet information.
Zain: SNC
Carter: SNC
Zain: SNC-Lavalin.
Carter: And
Zain: And the Jody Wilson-Raybould. When JWR
Zain: So, Carter, you've thrown a general rule on the table. I'll come back to you in a second because my frame is how as a staffer do you win a political breakup? Shannon, any
Zain: thoughts?
Carter: Interesting. As an elected official,
Zain: As
Zain: As an elected official, what's rule number one you'd like to throw at me? How does an elected official win a political breakup?
Shannon: Well, by taking the high ground and by saying as little as possible. Certainly, if it was scandal-driven, then by following the rules of issues management in a scandal, which is take responsibility over correct and communicate your way through, but don't share too much information. Certainly, I never hit back as a political, like an elected person at all. Like, I will say that I don't have a whole lot of experience with this, because once people started working for me, there was Hotel California, they never left. I had the same constituency staff all the way through the same constituency board pretty well all the way through. I was the only person premier or minister kept my chief of staff for the entire four years. I so I think it was because we were just working a lot and maybe because I was an out-of-town MLA and I wasn't around a lot maybe that helped Carter the entire reason I'm
Zain: Carter the entire reason I'm doing this segment is so that Shannon can run a victory lap I don't know if you know this
Shannon: this
Zain: no one's ever
Carter: one's ever left my two very
Zain: two very unique perspectives this is what I meant by unique someone who said no one leave her and someone who leaves everyone that they work with But
Shannon: But I mean, you really like it's the usual rules. It's the usual comms rules, right? You're never going to get anything out of a pissing match. So don't try. Neither of you are. And you're better to go quiet. Because, you know, leaving under a big cloud is not something that is going to look good to subsequent employers. It doesn't matter if you leave public life after being elected, or you've been a staffer, you've got to think that through. And even if there is context for when you leave, the
Zain: I mean,
Carter: mean,
Shannon: the fact of the matter is, is that people out there in the world, employers don't understand politics, they don't understand political context, and they're not going to give you the benefit of the doubt. So shut your mouth and go do something else. I
Zain: like these. I've got a few on the board. Take the higher ground, never hit back and go quiet. Carter, do you agree with all three of those? Rather than asking you to add another one or your first one, to be clear, for keeping the tally on the board, do you agree with Shannon's how to win a political breakup from a politician's perspective with go quiet, never hit back and take the high ground? ground i
Carter: think that's exactly what a politician should do when when a staff person is leaving the
Carter: the the the you know the danger is that in
Carter: in every office there's always a little bit uh i mean probably not shannon's but in every office there's definitely not i know you want to mention the rundown
Zain: there's definitely not i know you want to mention the rundown again chad we have time we
Zain: we
Carter: we have time on
Zain: we have time on the show all
Carter: all your constituency associates the chief of staff everybody probably stayed the same probably didn't even lose a uh communications communications person, not you. You've probably kept everybody. Oh, no. That
Shannon: probably kept everybody. Oh, no. That was a revolving door because everyone kept stealing them. Every time they did anything good, they would get sucked up into the vortex of the premier's office. Very.
Carter: good, they would get
Carter: Very. Oh, my God. Such a good office you ran. Oh, my goodness. Yeah. Perfect show. Wow. I
Shannon: God. Such a good
Shannon: goodness. Yeah. Perfect
Shannon: I had no control over it. I lost my train of thought there, Zane.
Carter: had no control over it. I lost my train of thought there, Zane. I was going to go somewhere with it. This is so unprecedented for
Zain: Zane. I was going to go somewhere with it. This is so unprecedented for you that it is for me. I was like, wow, this is... But I asked, the question was, do these rules apply to elected officials? The preview to my next question is, would you copy and paste these rules for your side of the ledger, Stephen Carter, which is a political staffer, or not so much? On
Carter: On my side of the ledger, I tried to keep things very quiet when I left Alison Redford's employee. I mean, it was not to my advantage to create havoc. We wound up actually doing a contract for Alison Redford after I was gone as chief of staff. Who's that again?
Zain: Who's that again?
Carter: Alison Redford. Do you remember her? Perfect. We did a contract for her government. I don't know if you were there for that one. But it was the budget choice exercise, and it was a really great contract. We had a lot of fun. We did some good work, and
Zain: remember her? Perfect. We did a contract for her government.
Carter: and I
Carter: I still did some advising to Allison, which was great. And that's what you really want when you're on the way out the door with a politician. You don't want to be completely out the door, and I don't think the politician wants you to go completely out the door.
Carter: We've talked a lot about how a politician's team never gets larger once they start. They wind up with the biggest group of people that love and support them on day one, and then they start whittling them off, especially premiers, prime ministers. I think it's a little less so for cabinet ministers, especially when they can be seen to be going on the way up.
Carter: People want
Zain: People want to barnacle on their rocket ship or whatever. I think
Carter: ship or whatever. I think that when you're
Carter: you're at the top and you lose a key staffer, you're losing a significant relationship
Carter: relationship that moves on. For example, Doug Wong would never want to leave the Minister of Finance office.
Zain: office. Doug Wong would never want to leave the Minister of Finance office. Doug Wong would never. Doug
Carter: of Finance office. Doug Wong would never.
Zain: Doug Wong, we hope you are well-employed somewhere. More
Carter: Doug Wong,
Zain: than likely not at the Ministry
SPEAKER_03: than likely not at the
SPEAKER_03: Ministry of Finance.
SPEAKER_03: It's
Zain: It's
Zain: It's probably not where Doug Wong currently holds a job. Now, I could Google it, and I will, but not before asking Shannon this question, which is, Shannon, is there any time, and the answer might just be a simple no, but I want to ask it, because is
Zain: is there any time when when a political breakup should
Zain: turn into a fight should
Zain: turn into more uh less of these which seem very you know static very like neutral inert rules is there a time where you're like fuck it we should have a fight about this this should see there should be some some bloodshed about it any thoughts not
Shannon: in the moment and you're not going to know in the moment but
Zain: you're not going to
Shannon: but i would say if there was serious stuff that happened um if you know people are starting to write affidavits and file them uh if uh uh there there was you know some serious harm or wrongdoing that happened then uh then the rules are different but even still you're still following communications rules you are still you are still uh doing things for a reason you are being caught You're being very deliberate about things. You're taking things one step at a time. Hopefully, you're being advised because then you're in like a real serious shit kind of situation, not in a situation where it's just I'm mad and I'm going to fly off in a fit of pique. I
SPEAKER_00: would
Zain: would
SPEAKER_00: would
Zain: would
SPEAKER_00: would
Shannon: I think people should treat these like jobs. There is a
Shannon: a tendency to not view political life as a vocation and a serious work.
SPEAKER_00: and a serious
Shannon: And that can undermine both the public perception of everyone involved in this work, but also of you as an individual and whether you can actually be a serious person in the workplace. I
SPEAKER_00: but also
Zain: I like that answer, Carter. Same question to you, Doug Wong. Thank you for your service to this country, which ended in January 2025. Carter, is there any time where a political breakup should well indeed turn into a fight from the perspective of a political staffer?
Carter: From a political staffer point of view? Yeah, yeah. I think that it shouldn't, but in my life it has. And the reason is when, in
Zain: staffer point of view? Yeah, yeah. I
Zain: I think
Carter: a perfect world, the staffer shouldn't feel like they're being picked on or that in some fashion that they're living under a cloud. The best way to leave is even when things have gone horribly wrong, you want the exit to be the same as when things have gone wonderfully right. You shouldn't be able to tell the difference because the stink that happens when a political staffer leaves, if something goes bad, that stink sticks to the politician too. It
Shannon: way to leave
Carter: It doesn't come off. So your best bet is to allow a no
Carter: no stink exit from both sides. But if there is stink and all of a sudden things start getting thrown at you, which was the thing that happened to me with
Carter: with the
Carter: the Gondek piece, there was no real choice but to defend
Carter: defend myself, defend my reputation, because things were being said and things continue to be said that aren't true and aren't part of the reason and rationale for me leaving that office. Shannon,
Zain: Shannon, I see you nodding your head. Well,
Shannon: I believe quite strongly that people need to stand up for themselves and defend themselves. I have personal experience with it. I have done it. And at personal cost, too. And so has Carter. And so I agree with that. But what Carter's saying isn't at odds with what I'm saying. You're doing it thoughtfully. You're doing it deliberately. You're hopefully getting some advice. Even if you are a comms professional, you've gone and talked to other people who are also in that world and going, okay, here's how I'm going to, I want to play this out. And they can go, yeah, that seems, you know, you're probably being too emotional, right? And to pull you back from the ledge. I have been advised that way over the years when I was dealing with nonsense from the Lethbridge Police Service, because you do get stuck in your own way of thinking and in your own perspective. and in politics as in relationships as in life you're probably only got a part of the part of the story and you do need to have some adult supervision when you are speaking especially about yourself and especially about your own reputation and especially about things that affect you emotionally you absolutely need someone an external person to come in and put like a coat of paint on it and go nope uh we need to make you more rational and then you can go talk talk to the public carter
Carter: And
SPEAKER_00: because you do get
Zain: i'm picking off of what taking off from what shannon said but also what you mentioned this concept of leaving under a cloud and often when that happens it's when
Zain: there is really no real story to it and people start speculating about the tea leaves that exist you know remove all the weird you know toddler baby dynamics from the trump aspect of it what's at the heart of it at least in my perspective is why is elon gone so early right like this must not have been a a situation where it was a mutual parting of ways someone was fired someone was let go timing is a very interesting one right how did you only last six weeks on the job how'd you only last six months on the job two months on the job right like these sort of questions and and that is
Zain: an example of what can generate the cloud is
Zain: that is that that plus the rumor mill being like ah well here's what's going on so how do you as a political staffer without escalating because you've told me the rule is to never make this break up a fight Right. But what does it look like to then defend yourself in this regard? And I ask both as a practitioner, but maybe even some personal experience that you may have on this. Well,
Carter: from my own personal experience, you know, when I was leaving Jyoti's office, I'd wish that we had had the opportunity to finish the strategic plan, because if we'd finished the primary objective of that piece, then I could have left and said, you know, my work here is done. I'm a strategist. We created the strategy, the strategy, and I'm going to go off and do. you had a great story to
Zain: had a great story to tell i had an accurate story to tell right and
Carter: i had an accurate story to
Carter: and i think that this is where elon is also facing facing a challenge he has not got a neat story to tell he is doge is not doge isn't done yeah
Zain: not doge isn't done yeah doge
Carter: doge is still in the middle of it and uh arguably
Carter: arguably i mean something especially given the size of the uh the dust up something has definitely happened well
Zain: well there also doesn't even seem to be going to the elon aspect of it for a second just to add to your point there doesn't It doesn't even seem to be a viable celebratory mission accomplished off ramp for him, right? Like no interim sort of like we hit 50% of our goal or like some story. It seems like this was very abrupt and then kind of came out of nowhere. But back to you, Carter. Well,
Shannon: to you, Carter.
Carter: that was
Shannon: was what giving him the key and him standing there with a black eye in the Oval Office was about, right? That was supposed to be the grand send-off without any specific metrics associated with it of the great work of Doge. And I'm struggling for even if they even talked much about Doge in that press conference. um i
Carter: send-off
Shannon: i i think that uh in this like carter's right that having like a little you know things to to pin it on is better for everyone involved uh because it also makes the elected person look like she knows what she is doing um
Shannon: um and that things aren't just chaotic uh and they can fire well
Zain: aren't just chaotic
Zain: uh and
Zain: and they can fire well and hire well and exit and messy and
Shannon: exit and messy and and uh if things are working out that you can just handle Handle it. Right. And just decide, OK, well, this isn't going great. So you're going to finish these this work, Carter, and I'm going to say nice things about you and you're going to say nice things about me. And and we're going to go off into the world and I'm going to look like a competent manager as a brand new mayor at City Hall and life's going to be good. Well, that her first six months didn't turn out that way. Now, did it? Not at all. all uh and in large part if you've got headlines that are you know the instability at city hall and this and that and people sniping at each other that that that looks very very bad uh for someone who has just come in as a brand new mayor uh
Zain: and and uh if
Shannon: uh first and like let's just let's just put it out there first woman mayor right
Zain: uh first
Shannon: right um and there's a good chunk of the population that wants you to fail Right. Because ideologically or whatever, they're not happy with what you've brought in and
Shannon: what you might what you might do from the mayor's chair. So there's there's an issue of competence there on how you handle this stuff, too. And as for the rumors and stuff you're talking about, Zane, like, you're almost better off in many cases to just let all of like, don't speak to it, just let it sort of float, because it'll pass. And then when it comes time to do the retrospective on the four years that you spent as mayor, it
Shannon: it won't even be mentioned. But if there is a public dust up, if there is back and forth, it'll be in there and not just as an asterisk. Yeah,
Zain: that's very, very insightful. Carter, I see you nodding your head. I've got two follow-ups for you on this, based on what Shannon has said, specifically on the staffer side. Anything to comment here before I jump in?
Zain: Nope. Give me the questions, brother. brother so here's question one and
Zain: i think this also applies to you in some ways but it's also relevant to the elon trump situation which i'm kind of borrowing this this topic from which is what if the power dynamics are they're never equal because i think advantage politician but what if the brand brand is more equal than um not right so elon trump strong like not equivalent but strong brands carter and principal insert principal x here like you're a well-known political commodity. Now, not as much as the mayor, but to those that matter, you are well known in a sense. So like, I think you can borrow this, but there are other political staffers that are also well known. What do you kind of make of some of the rules both of you have put on the table when the brands are perhaps a little bit more equal than not, where advantage is not just default to the politician?
Carter: Well, there's different audiences too. If you look at someone like a Jerry Jerry Butts, and Justin Trudeau. I mean, when Jerry left, you know, people were thinking that that was in large part the brain that was leaving the organism, if you will. Do
Carter: Do you feel that was
Zain: Do you feel that was like a well-manicured PR play on Jerry's part? Like the intellect is leaving the chat sort of thing? I
Carter: I don't think that it was a well-manicured, I don't think that he manufactured that. No, I think that he took the high road on the way out. I think that it was just the audience that knows Jerry, the audience that knows Justin thought,
Zain: don't think that
Shannon: I
Zain: I think that
Shannon: that
Zain: that he
Shannon: he took
Zain: think
Shannon: think
Zain: think that
Shannon: that
Carter: Well, there goes the brains of the operation, which I think actually was kind of a disservice to Katie, because I think Katie was just as much the brains of the operation. Well, this is actually at
Shannon: which
Zain: the operation. Well, this is actually at the heart of why I asked that question, which is like, do you feel like, in part, and I think we all three of us may know Jerry in different ways, but like, in part, was that a strategic, deliberate
Carter: I asked
Zain: deliberate move, right? Even if we don't know, to kind of say, like, you know, with this leave, which is a strong brand play for him, when he leaves and then reemerges in different aspects of public or private life. Well,
Carter: I mean, his departure, I think, was one of the ones that was designed to achieve something but didn't achieve it in no small part because his own
Carter: personal brand was so strong within the various audiences. It didn't, it did not affect the, it didn't, it had more impact on the office of the prime minister than it probably should have, given the situation by which he was leaving. I don't I think that his was a really good example of you can't just lose a staffer sometimes when you're trying to save an office, you know, because that's the other reason we leave. Right. We leave because something's gone horribly wrong in the office and a staffer needs to leave to take the fall for the principal. principal and i'm not sure how much that any
Zain: not sure how much that any
Zain: staffer
Carter: staffer right it's the third you know doug wong uh takes quite a beating for christopher freeland's letter uh to justin trudeau um but it doesn't really matter it it i'm not and we've actually proven on the show we've
Zain: not and we've actually proven on the show we've done our deep dive on the patreon that doug wong wrote that letter right we
Shannon: did
Carter: did do that yeah we
Zain: yeah we did one very clear if you're ten
Shannon: we
Carter: we did one
Shannon: one very clear
Carter: clear
Shannon: clear
Carter: clear if you're ten dollar patron you can uh actually listen to all of our back episodes
Carter: i'm
Zain: i'm really nervous
Shannon: i'm really nervous we're going to get sued now twenty
Carter: nervous we're
Zain: twenty dollar twenty dollar patron we actually Actually, I have video evidence of Doug Wong writing a letter.
Shannon: patron we
Shannon: of
Carter: She is taking the Corey Hogan role right to heart. She's embodied his
Zain: She is taking
Zain: right to heart. She's embodied his
SPEAKER_03: his
Zain: his
Carter: his
Zain: his
Carter: his
Zain: his spirit completely. I like this.
Carter: completely. I like this.
Zain: Yeah.
Carter: Yeah.
Carter: Yeah. I
Zain: I have a humorous soul. Any thoughts on the brand aspect, Shannon? And I know you can't speak from a personal experience on this, but obviously you've been a practitioner. You've been around this world. What if it's a staffer who has got a powerful public brand, maybe brighter if not equal to the principal? Well,
Shannon: a humorous soul.
Shannon: I think it depends on the circumstances, right? Like when Brian Topp left from being our chief of staff in government,
SPEAKER_00: chief of staff in government,
Shannon: government, a lot of people knew who he was. You know, he had run for leader of the federal party after Jack died. But I mean, he left after whatever it was, 12 months, 18 months, I can't remember. It was it was not there was no problem with it. He was just going on to do other things. It felt like a scheduled
Carter: other things. It
Carter: It felt like a scheduled departure.
Shannon: Right. You have an issue, a real crisis that has enveloped the prime minister's office. And so the number one rule of issues management is, you know, the top guy or gal or as close to the top as possible has got to take responsibility. Right. And so that was Jerry's attempt to do that. Was he at fault in my view? Absolutely not. Anyway, I have a lot of feelings about that particular scandal. um but uh you know i because and i also respect jerry very much for doing that um did it work no not really because the government was kind of on a downward trajectory as it was and you can almost uh plot their polling downward trajectory from when jerry left uh
SPEAKER_00: um but
SPEAKER_03: of on
Carter: on a downward
Carter: jerry left
Shannon: uh but um i mean it was big enough though to damage to
Shannon: if other communications uh skills and chops in that office being equal Uh,
Shannon: Uh, and if we maybe if we were doing politics kind of more in the old days, it would have been enough to go, okay, we've turned the page on this SNC-Lavalin thing, right? Which it didn't, it
Shannon: it did on SNC-Lavalin, it let the air out of that balloon.
Shannon: It didn't on the government's overall trust popularity, that kind of stuff. I mean, yeah. A
Zain: I mean,
Zain: couple more questions on this and I want to move on. Shannon, I'll stick with you for a second before I come to you, Carter.
Zain: What if your staffer, the
Zain: the practitioner
Zain: practitioner you're working with, they choose to fight?
Zain: They choose to blow shit up. Maybe they don't want a future career somewhere. Maybe they just feel like this is the best way for them. Maybe they feel like this is how they get underneath and out of the cloud of rumor mill that is surrounding their reputation or otherwise. Or maybe this is just what they do. They fight. If they choose to fight, do your roles of go quiet, tie your hand behind your back sort of thing still apply? Or is there any nuance or caveats you want to add before I go to Carter? Oh,
Shannon: well, I think it really depends. Again, are they making very, very harmful accusations? Is this actionable in court? It really depends on how they've chosen to salt the earth. From their perspective, is this smart? Absolutely not. They better have a good Adderall
Shannon: Adderall prescription so that they can write themselves a book real quick and punch that out. Because it's the only way they're making any money for the next couple of years unless they choose to change careers.
Zain: Carter, any thoughts on this before I go to your final question here?
Carter: I mean, I just think that the best bet for everybody is quiet. Yeah. You guys are
Zain: You guys are both suggesting that there is a win-win scenario here. Oh, yeah. Yeah, there is. There is. is
Shannon: are both suggesting
Carter: suggesting
Carter: Oh, yeah. Yeah,
Carter: is. is i mean there was there there was for allison there was for jyoti and for you know there there was for jerry there was for justin there i mean i look at at rachel's office rachel went through three chiefs of staff in four years um it wasn't exactly uh the job that everybody could hang on to and each one of those departures was managed well two departures and only because nathan stayed right to the end. But the departures
Carter: departures were managed well, and those departures being managed well made a difference to her government, whereas the other governments, the ones that don't manage it well, tend to come out very poorly in the end.
Zain: Carter, here's my final question for you, playing the staffer once again in this scenario. If someone were to approach you with a similar set of circumstances being like, okay, Carter, how do I win this fight? How do I preserve my reputation? Would you advise anyone to hire comms support?
Zain: Often we find ourselves practitioners of our own making the communicators. We are the experts, especially if we are in political roles that require that, and most of them do in some way, shape, or form. We don't seek external support issues, management, crisis, PR, et cetera. Would you advise that? And by extension, you may know where i'm going and you feel free to answer whatever you feel comfortable did you ever consult external advice when in any of the situations that you found yourself and from a maybe legal shore but i'm thinking more communications in that regard oh
SPEAKER_03: especially
Carter: especially
SPEAKER_03: especially
Carter: oh yeah i talked to lots of different communicators i'm not sure i listened to any of them um
Carter: um but you know like for example that sprawl interview that that stands the you
Carter: know one of the more uh tricky
Carter: communications choices that needed to be made refresh people who
Zain: refresh people who may not be familiar. Give people a sense of what was up and how many of us got DMs in our inbox to chat.
Carter: to chat.
Carter: I think that I was aware, so The Sprawl is a local long-form communications piece, magazine. However we want to describe it. Media, media.
Zain: it. Media, media. They were
Carter: They were doing a series of interviews into me. I got feedback from the people who were being asked questions that this was happening and instead of waiting for it to happen and being the last person interviewed i made the choice to call the reporter and be one of the first people interviewed which was setting the table and constructing my own discussion points right um some people thought that that was crazy and other people think it's genius um i tend to fall into the genius category but
Zain: i tend to fall
Zain: but there is there is another other sort of element to this which i think I think you'd agree with, which is you gave this guy more newsworthy shit than any one of the people being interviewed combined would give him. Totally.
SPEAKER_03: people being interviewed
SPEAKER_03: Totally. Right, like
Zain: Right, like you said some shit, man. Like you really did. Like I wasn't, like if I was being interviewed, which ultimately I wasn't because I don't think they needed it after they had an hour and 30 with Stephen Carter. Like they were just like, okay, fuck that rest of that shit. Like it's not going to be as good as what Carter has just given us himself, about himself. Well,
Carter: I think that I told a story that was true and accurate. And unfortunately for me, my stories that are true and accurate have some highs and lows. But, you know, better be honest about both of those, right? You got to be honest about the highs as well as the lows.
Zain: Shannon, any final thoughts? Well,
Shannon: I think that there is a line between making sure that things are accurate and that you are well protected and going quiet. And that is a hard line
Shannon: line to walk because you are always better off to go quiet. it. But especially
SPEAKER_00: because
Shannon: especially in these times, right, when people aren't, and
Shannon: and there's lots of nefarious actors out there who are not interested in accuracy at all, and would be happy to burn your reputation down, especially if you are on the progressive side, it is important to make sure that there is accuracy in that you stand up for yourself. As for talking to outside people, like I said before, like, hopefully, good heavens, if you are a political person, either on the staff or the elected side you have a friend or two uh that is a professional that you can talk to if you don't you need to ask yourself about your life choices if you don't have 10 or 15 people that you could phone up just at the drop of a hat to be like i have this problem do you have 10 minutes to talk to me i want to know what you think i should do if those people aren't in your phone question your life choices and go make some friends um because uh if you've been in this business for, you
Carter: i should do
Shannon: you know, five plus years, or, you know, and that's like at the bare minimum.
Shannon: If you've been in it much longer, like Carter and I have, you better have those people. And they should come from all kinds of different perspectives on the ideological spectrum and elsewhere. You should know people and you should have a good enough relationship with them that they want to do you a solid of listening to you rant for five to seven minutes, and then giving you their take on what you should do next.
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SPEAKER_04: cast helps creators launch grow and monetize their podcasts everywhere a cast.com carter
Zain: carter i'm going to move on to to it to a different topic but under the same header of
Zain: of love which is uh love seems to be in the air at least communication
Carter: communication does
Zain: does late
Carter: late
Zain: late at night between donald trump and mark carney they're
Zain: they're talking they're talking privately cbc has reported that that is indeed happening melanie joe lee and the PMO have both confirmed it. But of course, the lines seem very conventional and standard. We're not going to negotiate in public. We're not going to provide you any details. At the same time of these conversations, these late night phone calls, texts, whatever they may be, Stephen Carter, we've
Zain: been hit with more tariffs and
Zain: a doubling of tariffs. So the question is, there seems to be, and you may disagree with my premise here, so fight me on that, there seems to be a bit of a communications gap, which is Carney seems to be advancing the ball down the field as it relates to at least volume of conversation with Trump, but we are also being hit with additional tariffs, targeted, of course, global tariffs, but we're included in them, in this case on steel. So Carter,
Zain: does this leave a communications vacuum for Team Carney in terms of what's happening, progress down the field, what we're doing, how we're doing it? And if so, if you agree with my premise, what
Zain: would you do to advise them right now with this? Because it seems like there's one piece of good news, hey, we're talking, one piece of bad news, I think people are left with, wait, do these things connect? Are they related? And if they're not, the vacuum seems to be saying, oh, these are related. And this is not going well for Carney, so to speak. So talk to me about this and the advice you'd give them, if you agree indeed with my premise. I
Carter: I think that all negotiations
Carter: can't survive public public awareness. You must do negotiations in private. They must be kept between the principles of the negotiation team. And the fact that the Carney's negotiating with Trump, I think, gives us tremendous advantage because I think that Trump is an imbecile.
Carter: And I think that Cardi's not. So this
Carter: this is a great opportunity for Canada. But I do think it puts pressure on us as a nation, heading
Carter: heading into the G7 especially.
Carter: These private conversations with Donald Trump aren't going to remain private for long. There
Carter: There is a very short window to actually achieve something because he doesn't have the attention span to
Carter: to have a long-form negotiation, have a long-form expectation of an outcome. I've said it before that I suspect that Donald Trump has a lot more respect for Mark Carney than Donald Trump has for anybody else, because Carney comes from the world that Donald Trump admires and envies, and that's for people who've made money. He
Carter: He has space for those people. And,
Carter: And, you know, Mark Carney's made a lot of money. He's not lost a lot of money. He's not lost a lot of fortunes like Donald Trump. And I think that that holds some interest for Donald Trump. But
Carter: But I think that there's a limited window for this. And this limited window will come to an end. I'm putting it at the G7, Shannon. I think that that's when this will be coming to some sort of a head. I think that the argument that I have with your premise is that people are currently putting this on as a difficult spot. I think that you're projecting forward a week or two.
SPEAKER_03: this. And
Zain: But I think
Carter: But I think that the
Carter: the G7 is when things are going to come to a head and there'll be an awful lot of pressure on Prime Minister Kearney.
Zain: What do you think of this? Shannon, do you feel like there's an issue here? Or do you feel like in the absence of an issue, people are trying to find an issue? Like, how would you analyze this current situation? They're talking, but we're being hit with additional tariffs and there's no real explanation of like where we're going as a country on this thing well
Shannon: there's a big chunk of ice under the water uh that uh that carney can hit by fall if he's not careful and i would say fall is extremely generous because what what they're in the they're in this position now where they're
Shannon: they're talking according to reports um carney wants to land some kind of canada u.s you know deal as part of his 90 deals in 90 days right for trump he wants a deal but
Shannon: but we've been slapped with these additional tariffs that are to be clear going to absolutely shit kick canada's steel and aluminum industry we are going to see imminent layoffs in southern ontario in quebec in northern ontario uh in the sioux and elsewhere um probably in in regina there's a steel plant there. There's a number of different places where this is going to hit and hit hard.
Shannon: So Carney has to respond, but he doesn't have the same kind of elbows up kind of, you know, like, let's all make hats and t-shirts, kind of, you know, sort of brave heart to the barricades kind of response that he had, that wrote him into the Prime Minister's office. He doesn't have that that right now should
Zain: Minister's office. He doesn't have that
Zain: should he here's i think that's the heart of my question should he or what is the what is the strategy what is the play he's
Shannon: what is the what is the strategy what is the play he's
Shannon: he's absolutely hamstrung right now because if he wants to get something over uh the line he can't be blowing himself up in public to our previous topic right sometimes you just do not have that emotional response that you want that is even good politics sometimes it's not available to you um
Zain: he's
Carter: sometimes you
Shannon: um and so his window for that is is relatively short I would actually put it just beyond the NATO summit, Heather. And because there's going to be these big things in the air. Right. And and even if communities, organized labor, others start to really say, like, what are you doing on these tariffs? What are we doing to respond? Or start really ramping up the pressure on Carney to talk about publicly or even with smaller groups of people, what is actually happening in these negotiations? He still has a bit of air cover of, you know, big lightning in the sky files. The NATO summit's going to be a big defense push from them. And so he has a bit of time. But
SPEAKER_03: window for
Shannon: But if the opposition's smart, they're going to be starting to, as I said last week, starting to talk about unemployment across the board, right? Because these job losses are in private sector, highly unionized sectors. So that's the first thing. There's a ready made political constituency there for whatever political party is smart enough to go find them.
Shannon: carney has some ability well probably the disproportionate ability to reach them right now with good news but he has to have something so he's a little bit handcuffed meanwhile the opposition parties can just say whatever whatever they want right uh and so uh that is is a headwind for him um
Shannon: and
Shannon: so he's probably and then you know people aren't really paying attention he's probably got until september uh until he either has to have a deal or it has to go and fight
Shannon: Those are his two options. And he has to find a deal that doesn't drive Canada into a permanent situation with an unstable White House and another, what, like six, eight months until the politics and the bid terms start to turn up? And a White House that might even lose its political currency around tariffs if the shit really hits the fan starting in the fall, as we expect it might.
Zain: Carter, G7 deal, would that surprise you? Like genuinely be like, holy shit, like it would be fast. But it's this time next week, roughly, right? Like for a couple of days starting this time next week, I guess a better way to say it. But would a G7 deal on home soil with the US? Obviously, there's dramatic flair to it. And Carney's not immune to that. In fact, he seems to be leaning into, I want to do generational shit on a generational sort of narrative. But would that surprise you? Not at all.
Carter: all. Oh, didn't the UK do a deal a couple of weeks ago? Like it wasn't even being talked about and all of a sudden the deal's right there. I mean, Donald Trump, like I suspect the deal is not a 350 page, you know, USCA, MA, whatever the heck the new NAFTA is. Yeah, USMCA, sure. Yeah, I think it's going to be, you know, one piece of full scap with two signatures. I just don't think it's going to be the same level of complexity and detail. uh, that, uh, the real leaders would, would be doing. I think that Donald Trump needs to have his victory and it's going to be a relatively easy piece of negotiations compared to these really detailed and difficult, uh, and, and frankly, better, uh, deals that will be constructed. But Mark Carney, I think we'll have us to the place where it's reasonable to expect, uh, a G7 type of, uh, piece of information. I think it's also reasonable to expect that it could take the entire summer uh
Shannon: wasn't
SPEAKER_03: wasn't even being
Zain: Yeah, USMCA, sure. Yeah, I think
Carter: uh i don't think that it is a you
Zain: mean you mean alternatively not like in it yet alternatively right i
Carter: like in
Carter: i i but i think that you know
Carter: both outcomes are reasonable um
Carter: um
Carter: um but which one is probable and i think that the probable one is something that is shorter given trump's uh uh noted attention span issues
Carter: i hope it
Shannon: i hope it is it wouldn't surprise me at all but i i am nervous about it and here's why the the uk deal was essentially uh just reeked of starmer making a deal out of weakness it is bad for the uk economy it is three and a half pages of nonsense he's already getting blowback for it and uh it really did look like he was you know sort of there out of desperation i'm very deal versus the right
Carter: here's why
SPEAKER_00: why the
Carter: the
Zain: deal versus the right deal i think this is well yeah yeah and
Shannon: well yeah yeah
Shannon: yeah and so there's there's that it was also you know it's very surface right and uh uh which i think has come come to characterize just the the starmer government i'm very disappointed in them i think they've you know largely sucked on a number of files but uh so what the challenge for carney if he is going to land something for the g7 if he wants that big uh you know sort of that big that big uh sort of nice big headline you know a mission accomplished banner kind of thing um he
SPEAKER_00: kind of thing um
Shannon: he needs to be really careful that he does not fundamentally rewrite the canada u.s trading relationship that started with the auto pact in the 1960s um and that has largely been about canada accessing u.s markets for our stuff like that has been the driver all along for us we are the smaller economy and we're a lot a raw commodity economy so there are big risks in like sort of baking something in with this extremely unpredictable white house that might just turn around anyway and and be like, oh, well, we baked in, let's just say, because the rest of the world is dealing with this 10% tariff, right? We baked in a 10% on everything, but, you know, tomorrow it's going to be 50 anyway on a whim.
SPEAKER_00: baked in a
Shannon: So he really has to be careful that we're not hitching ourselves to something that's going to remake industrial policy for the next three and a half, four years until we've finally seen the hind end of this guy.
Zain: Stephen Carter, we're going to move it on to our over, under, and our lightning round. It is late for you. It is several hours past your bedtime. I can't believe I've
Shannon: hours
Carter: hours
Shannon: hours past your
Carter: your bedtime. I can't believe I've stayed awake this long. Are you going to be able to function
Zain: this long. Are you going to be able to function in your cash withdrawal pipeline meetings in the morning?
Carter: I don't think so. Yeah,
Zain: Yeah, but the money comes to you. You're a white male. We're making so
Carter: You're a white male. We're making so much money on these podcasts now. Oh, I'd
Zain: I'd say we're not, but okay. So much money. I'd say that's not true. I'd say that's not true. Stephen Carter, are you in or are you out on Prime Minister Carney inviting Narendra Modi to the G7? It was a controversy-filled invite, which hit the news late last week. And are you out on Carney doing this? I'm out.
Carter: So much money. I'd say that's not true.
SPEAKER_00: true.
Carter: the G7? It
SPEAKER_04: It
Zain: I
Carter: I
Carter: think that India, our relationship with India needs work. I think that there's all kinds of places to put that work into. I don't think that we should be treating them as a pariah and not having a relationship with them. But I think that inviting them to the G7 is a step too far.
Carter: It's not the equivalent of inviting North Korea or Russia, but it'd be like inviting Saudi Arabia to the G7 with the ills and the mistakes that Saudi Arabia has made and the state-sanctioned killings that they've done. It's not the right choice. choice shannon
Zain: shannon carter alluded to it of course the controversy stemming largely but not entirely out of the state's sanction killings modi was also the governor of gujarat and there's a large sort of anti-muslim sentiment in the bjp um you know in in india not only has cardi invited by the way to be clear modi has accepted shannon
Zain: shannon are you in or are you out on this i
Shannon: i am out on it i can understand uh why they are doing this uh number one they do want to diversify their trading relationships between can't be beyond the united states and china i get it uh i also understand that trump has decided not to attend the g20 this year so what carney's kind of doing is essentially like i'm inviting like you know the whole world uh in other words sort of like you know diluting him and kind of making it a little mini g20 right he's got the aussies there he's got obviously india he's he invited claudia that's right yeah but i don't know if she's coming i don't know if if that's uh but and so you know okay i understand what we're trying to do here but you know if you're trying to dilute trump or add uh larger economies i mean i can think of uh some that haven't meddled in our elections or killed our citizens on uh our soil uh and so i would be looking at you know why not invite a south africa brazil you know there are other countries in the bricks, not just India. There are other large economies with whom we can expand our trading relationships. That's what I would be looking at doing. I just don't think that
SPEAKER_00: other words sort of like you know
SPEAKER_00: invited claudia that's right yeah but i don't
SPEAKER_00: know if if
Carter: other countries in
Shannon: India's response on murdering someone in a state-sanctioned killing on Canadian soil, I
Shannon: I do not believe that they haven't taken responsibility. They haven't investigated. They just lobbed spitballs Mr. Trudeau, they have actively meddled in our nominations and attempted election interference. So, you know, there has to be a bar, right? Mark Carney is fond of saying that markets don't have values and people do. Well, here's
Shannon: here's a nice example. Show us that people have values because if it's about the trading relationship, fine. Yeah, markets don't have values, but Canadians do.
Zain: Shannon, I'm going to stick with you with our next one. Pierre Poliev, his leadership numbers have plummeted double digits. On the question of preferred prime minister in a new poll, Carney's at nearly 50%. Of
Zain: course, we've just had an election happen. Pierre
Zain: Pierre Poliev at 28%, down a dozen points. Of course, I just said we've had an election happen, so maybe this doesn't matter. But this is a guy who's kind of out of a job and with his future not entirely secure. So my question is, is this overrated, Shannon, or is this underrated? in your mind that Piripauliev's leadership numbers are taking a double digit hit?
Shannon: It's overrated right now. But if the CPC war room takes this as overrated right now, and just decides to continue on with business as usual and, and
Shannon: and wait for gravity to bring them back up, or whatever, I would think that is a foolish calculation.
Shannon: Opposition leaders, whoever loses the election always goes down a little bit right after the election, That just happens. And so I don't think that that's a huge deal right now. However, Canadians got a good, solid look at that guy in a way they didn't even between when he won in whenever it was 2020, late 22, 23. Anyway, whenever he won the leadership in 22 and the election, people got a good look at him. And now that's the outcome of it. And so they're going to have to be really mindful of that and make sure that they have a plan in place that they are cutting their caucus in on that plan, because this stuff will bubble over the summer. and they better have a plan for some rehab in September and October on his image, his tone, his substance, all of it, because they can't. These are not good numbers, but I wouldn't be freaking out right now.
SPEAKER_00: after the election, That
Carter: that plan, because
Zain: Carter, listen, it's an election that's just happened. Buyer's remorse probably doesn't set in this early. That being said, to Shan's last point, it's a 20
Carter: 20-point gap, according to Nanos, between Carney
Zain: Carney
Carter: Carney
Zain: Carney and Polyev right now. Is
Carter: Carney and
Carter: Is
Zain: Is this overrated? Wave
Zain: it away. or underrated in your mind it's
Carter: underrated i think this is a significant drop for someone who is not a likable character um he he was close to being the prime minister and he lost uh and now people are saying like i think that the reason he was close to being the prime minister was not because people liked pierre poliev is because they did not like the other guy so now that the other guy has faded the memory of him has faded i think that this is a a fairly significant collapse that will continue. And I can't tell you how wrong
Carter: wrong Shannon is in their analysis. I just have to throw that in one more time. No,
Zain: time. No, I appreciate that, Carter. Yeah, I appreciate
Shannon: Yeah, I appreciate it. It's that truth
Zain: It's that truth-telling. And let's end on this. Stephen Carter, we mentioned this G7 begins next week. So this week, the week prior to the G7, what
Zain: what advice would you have for Mark Carney in one sentence? Lay it on me.
Zain: Don't try and go mountain biking
Carter: biking in Kananaskis this month.
Zain: Okay, that's good. Very good. practical i like that about you carter yeah you go practical and
Carter: carter yeah you
Carter: and it's really from the heart you know it's something that is meaningful to me yeah
Zain: yeah no no i i think we've we've we've heard it often on this show shannon any advice in one sentence to mr mark carney prime minister of canada as he prepares to clean that
Carter: to clean that up i was a funny one and now i don't get the chance to no it's fine you
Zain: you know it's fine it's too late for you you think what you think it's funny it's not shannon laid on me i'm
Carter: it's
Shannon: it's
Carter: it's not
Shannon: not
Shannon: i'm gonna cede the floor to you carter do you do you have a follow-up don't
Zain: don't see
Carter: see get a deal Deal done with Donald Trump.
Zain: get a
Shannon: I'm going to say just get through it one step at a time and avoid tantrums because the last G7 hosted on Canadian soil resulted in a Trump tantrum. And, you
Carter: I'm
Shannon: you know, avoiding that is probably best. Maybe it'll work out, but they're usually best avoided.
Zain: We're going to leave it there. That's a wrap on Episode 1874 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Velgey. With me, as always, Shannon Phillips, Stephen Carter, and we shall see you next time. I
Carter: thought it was a funny joke. It wasn't
Zain: wasn't
Zain: wasn't all that funny. It is literally almost midnight for you there in the most boring, dull city in the world. You might be the funniest person in Ottawa right now. I'll give you that. That place fucking sucks.
Carter: that funny. It is literally almost midnight
Carter: in the
SPEAKER_03: the most boring, dull city
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