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Zain: This is The Strategist, episode 1873. My name is Zane Belgey. With me as always, Shannon Phillips and Stephen Carter. What's going on? I'm sitting on a hotel bed. bed yeah
Carter: yeah you know you know how i sent you a note just before you left to go to toronto i said don't forget your microphone well
Zain: said don't
Zain: okay so there's two stories here number one number
Zain: number one okay i
Zain: i only spent a certain amount of hotel rooms and whatever that gets me that gets me in this case it gets me no desk and sitting on a bed number two i
Zain: forgot that they have something called the ultra basic fair carter and i have accidentally booked that on my trip which
Zain: is meant that i had no room for the microphone. I told you I forgot. It wasn't that I forgot. It was a choice between underwear and socks or the microphone at this point. Let me show you what I'm traveling with. It's sitting over there. It's a backpack. Okay?
Carter: me show you what
Zain: Okay? Now, could I have paid extra for the carry-on? No. Turns out I couldn't have. That's actually not a thing they let you do.
Zain: Airlines are fucking nuts, Carter. That's all. That's all. That's all I'm saying.
Carter: Well, okay. I'm guessing you were out there on Flair Airlines.
Zain: It was not. At least Flair would treat me better as a long-time sponsor of the show, in which the ghost of Corey Hogan is now saying, not a sponsor. yeah
Carter: show, in
Carter: yeah not a
Shannon: a sponsor we
Zain: we said a
Carter: we said a
Shannon: a
Carter: a sponsor would
Zain: sponsor would
Carter: would
Carter: would you say that
Zain: that sadly it's almost like
Carter: like we just
Shannon: like
Zain: like we
Shannon: we
Zain: we
Shannon: we
Zain: we just have to be sad about
Shannon: just have to be sad about it that was not the
Zain: it that was not the tone we wanted uh shannon what's going on what are you up to oh
Shannon: uh shannon
Shannon: i'm uh in lethbridge which is nice i'm never home uh these days but uh i'm home today and uh one of my kids i hope there's no noise in the background uh just came in from his uh rifle safety course because that's the kind of operation we're running around around here.
Zain: Sounds very Lethbridge. Yeah. He gets ready for the Civil War. Yeah, even the new Democrats are heavily
Shannon: He gets
Shannon: gets ready
Shannon: the
Shannon: Yeah, even the new Democrats are heavily armed, yes. Well,
Zain: Well, your southern locale is probably one of the first municipalities to be attacked as the Americans rush up, so it's pretty strategic. I like it. That
Zain: combined with Carter's bunker planning. Oh,
Carter: Oh, I've got it all worked out. I have to redo everything, though. I've got to make sure that everything's up to snuff.
Zain: I've got it all
Zain: Well, Captain, you have to buy Canadian now. No, no, I've invited Shannon
Carter: No, no, I've invited Shannon to come along, but I haven't invited you still, so It's fine. It's fine. Don't invite me. I'm very
Shannon: Don't invite me. I'm very useless. I have very few post-apocalyptic skills. I think you could probably do better, Carter. What would I be doing? I don't know, crocheting in the corner? Like, I'm no good to you there. Someone needs to crochet.
Zain: Someone needs to crochet. Don't fucking invite me. I'd rather be doing what I love, which is traveling this country on the ultra-basic fare. Backpack to backpack. It's like backpacking Europe, except not even nearly as enjoyable. Let's move it on to our first segment. Our first segment, Kumbaya, my lord. Shannon,
Zain: it is all love.
Zain: The FFM, FFMMM, FMMM is here. The
Carter: The First
Zain: The First Minister's meeting has concluded, at least the first tranche of the conversations that are public in Saskatoon. And it is all love. Doug Ford coming out and saying that this is the best meeting that they have had in years. Oh, it doesn't matter that there's no guarantees and no specific projects on the list, even though and despite Shannon, we were promised a list. Talk to me about what your takeaway here is, at least from the communication you see from the premiers, that you see from the prime minister. There was a high bar here. Was the high bar met?
Shannon: Yes. The dividing line in Canadian politics, the axis of disagreement is federalism. Right. Daniel
Shannon: Smith can't do politics of grievance on specific groups. Even the furthest reaches of the right in this country can't exploit the politics of grievance. to other specific groups of people, recently arrived immigrants or anyone else, doesn't fly in Canadian politics. What flies is
Shannon: is othering on the basis of region. That is what Canada is built on. And any time that you can rise above that, even for a moment, even to set the tone or the agenda of a government in a honeymoon phase, that is a good day. And you could tell that no premier saw political advantage in bursting that bubble today. When you watch them all parade out doing their little power politics hits and their little press conferences, every single one of them were effusive and kind of ready to give
SPEAKER_00: little press conferences,
Shannon: give the federal government a chance. It doesn't matter that there's no specific list as a matter of public policy, as a matter of the public interest. I'm glad there isn't a specific list, because I'm looking for some due diligence here. Not to get too far down the rabbit hole of the policy aspects of this. But I mean, I don't want people, you know, signing off on a bunch of white elephants and spending a bunch of money where they shouldn't on projects that may or may not have, you know, social or political support, as well as, you know, support from the financial side. So I think this was an unmitigated success, a rare one in Canadian politics, and we should take those wins where we can get them.
Zain: Carter, same question to you. And then I've got a follow up around. Are we absorbing as a Canadian public any of this and what that can be, what that can actually mean for Carmi's chances of telling a winning story, even though he's having winning meetings and winning projects? I'm assuming your answer, but give it to me rather than me assuming it. What was did this meet the bar today? Well,
Carter: Well, I think that it met the bar from the expectations of people who pay attention. Shannon's happy.
Carter: And that's all that I can really, you know, I mean, as long as Shannon's happy, then the people who pay attention are happy. That's all we can ask for. But the gen pop, you know, we don't pay attention anymore. We've talked a lot about the downfall of traditional media. We've talked a lot more about the downfall of social media in the last few years. Who exactly is following this? Who's paying attention at this stage? And what impact is going to have? Because it's going to have to be more than one weekend or one week, right? It's going to have to be a sustained push from this government and really sustained communication structures for the better part of a year before people are really going to start to grab onto it. Shannon's proclamation that federalism as our last bone to pick is done. You know, I mean, she's a little optimistic. optimistic uh i think that you know we're still going to be able to danielle smith will still find a way to blame mark carney for everything that goes wrong oh
SPEAKER_01: done.
Shannon: oh i'm not saying that it's not that that it's gone that's what you said that's what you said it's absolutely not what i said no i was listening i was paying attention the tradition
Carter: that's
Carter: that's what you said that's
Carter: that's
Carter: what you said it's absolutely not what i said no i was listening i was paying attention the tradition
Shannon: tradition of being wrong about a lot of things uh no
Shannon: for sure it's it is gone uh or it is uh we've got some grace today i would say uh it's It's coming back. You already heard Daniel Smith sort of saying it is. What was it? Necessary, but not sufficient precondition. Right.
SPEAKER_02: precondition.
Zain: Shannon, talk to me about the question Carter refuses to answer because he probably isn't up to it, which is what
Zain: what is the cost of us not absorbing everything Carney is doing? He's trying to tell a very specific story as an extension of the election around who the protagonists are, why we're doing what we're doing, and who the antagonists are. And does this fit that storyline for you? And is this happening too fast, perhaps, for the general public to consume all of this to understand what's happening here, why we're doing certain things? Or do you think they're just providing him grace to do whatever for however long, undetermined
Zain: undetermined amount of time? Well,
Shannon: Well, the public wants economic response to an economic threat. So in as much as they're getting anything and stuff like this does punch through, right? It's not like the usual cut and thread of politics of what's going on in the House or question period or what have you. It's a much different type of media story, right? Because it involves all of the premiers. And if anything punches through, it's that Carney wants to build stuff, which is actually kind of what he said. Right. And if you were to go out and ask man on the street, that's very likely what they would say. Oh, I guess he wants to build stuff. We'll see how it goes. Right. That's what that's what you get from your average Albertan, I'm quite certain. So in that sense, you know, job done on on on this day, going forward, the price, though, to your to your actual question, the price that gets paid going forward is that there are a lot of there's a lot of politics between here and there in terms of
Shannon: whatever projects we're talking about, out whatever regulatory processes we're pulling out of the way with whatever legislation he ends up tabling and the extent to which people aren't kind of understanding that there are trade-offs there is the extent that the dragons are just around the corner right of the uh changing up the environmental rules of uh even circumventing some of our section 35 responsibilities i don't know how they're going to do that but uh i i'm talking about the indigenous consultation pieces Some of this is coming, and there are conflicts to come. And if the public's not kind of tracking the drumbeat on this, all of a sudden we're going to be into conflicts around specific proposals, projects in specific geographic spaces, and the public's not going to have a lot of context for that. Carter,
Carter: even circumventing
Carter: of this is
Zain: you're having a call tonight with Andrew Scheer and Pierre Palliev, because of course they've got two people leading that universe now. And they're saying, okay, we're not jumping in today. It doesn't seem right. None of the premiers are jumping in today. This is not something to oppose. But Carter, help us find the soft tissue here between what Carney's putting out right now and where this could go. Help us see around the corner. corner. Shannon's saying here that this is eventually going to fray. Danielle's going to do her thing. Help us see around the corner what opportunities exist for us to get ourselves into the narrative, into the story. This is an economic file that historically conservatives have been leading. He's stealing our ideas. Yes, he's on a honeymoon phase, but we need to be relevant. What would you tell them right now? What
Carter: that
Carter: What I would tell them right now is that, you know, you need to take
Carter: take a little bit of time. The honeymoon is going to come off on this relatively quickly. When I say a little bit of time, I'm thinking until Thursday.
Carter: Today is Monday night.
Carter: You know, everything shifts in 24, 48, 72 hours. These are the timelines of our attention span. So in 72 hours, we'll be able to get out from under this and start talking about how this is too little too late. You know, Doug Ford is already, you
Carter: you know, signed up for how great everything is, but that
Carter: that doesn't mean it's great for the people of Canada. It might be great for the people of Ontario, it might be good for the people in Eastern Canada, but where's the West? And the West is out of town, not paying attention, and still primarily interested in grievance politics.
Zain: Well, let me ask you the question this way, because I'm glad you mentioned 72 hours is a relatively arbitrary period of time, but I think an important one between now and Thursday. How does Carney then flash-freeze the sentiment of today, kumbaya, love, you know, Doug Ford called him Santa Claus today, and how does he extend the shelf life on that?
Zain: How are you, if you're Mark Carney, take today, package it, and keep doling it out, at least that vibe and feeling, for as long as you can? Break
Carter: Break it into as many little parts as humanly possible, and dole out those little parts in measurable increments across the longest possible timeline.
Zain: What could that look like?
Carter: What could that
Carter: Well, I mean, it's interesting. I wrote a policy over the weekend. I didn't write a policy. I helped edit a policy. And the policy has five big points, and each of those five big points has five little points. So that's 25 individual points that we can roll out over the course of a campaign.
Carter: This needs to be approached in the exact same fashion. You know, each one of these projects is actually 25 little points. 25 little points rolled out over 25 weeks gives you a communication strategy, especially when you couple that with three projects, two projects, two projects and a couple of, and some budget initiatives, two projects and some social services initiatives. You know, like there's a lot of things that the Trudeau government, we must remember, the staggering complaint that we had about the Trudeau government was that they were awful at communications. We made that complaint for what? Seven years, a minimum? At least
Zain: At
Zain: At
Zain: least
Zain: least seven years. At least
Carter: least
Carter: years. At least seven years. Now what we're seeing is someone who has the ability to communicate in the first instance. The question now is, will Mark Carney and his government be able to communicate into the 25th instance? That's what I'd be interested to see over the course of the next couple of months.
Zain: Shannon, same question for you. How does he flash freeze and extend the
Zain: honeymoon, of course, but extend the feelings from today around coordination, working together for as long as possible? Well,
Shannon: Well, some of it has to be real, right? And, you know, like show results is something that, you know, is always the communication is advice. But what does that look like when you're, you know, you can't be just kind of standing
Shannon: standing behind the podium, the podium is prison, right? Because that was part of the knock on Trudeau's, they would just they would do like straight podium politics, it was all driving towards the announcement, and there was nothing happening behind that announcement, or as a, as a knock on to it, right. And oftentimes, they were, they were announcing policies, or initiatives that took forever to kind of roll out. You never found out what actually happened to them. Or they were so chicken-scratched, there were too many sub-bullets to the bullet, that it was, you know, just some minister standing up talking about $750,000 for a sewer pipe, right? Like, it didn't really connect in to people, what people expect their government to be doing. So, you know, you need to find that balance. I would say that there are some projects Projects that are more ready to go than others. I heard Susan Holt, for example, Premier of New Brunswick, talking about the Port of St. John, that
Zain: people expect their government
Zain: to
Shannon: that sounded a lot more, I mean, who
Shannon: knows, but it sounded a lot more ready to go than, you know, as yet notional, east-west linear infrastructure for either bitumen or even natural gas. uh and uh you know she was saying it was 275 million dollar project well that's a lot less than uh
Shannon: uh you know what i have heard uh oil pipelines tens of billions
Carter: tens of billions churchill to be 50
Shannon: 50 billion or more right and and for sure it would be more uh the same group of people that valued tmx at eight and became 34 so uh the point here is is that they do need to be able to to demonstrate that and then the next the other thing they need to do and this is also to the point about polyamory and uh that other guy the american sheer um is
Carter: or more right and
Shannon: is uh um
SPEAKER_00: uh
Shannon: um you you uh
Shannon: uh unemployment
Shannon: unemployment right in southern ontario uh in particular uh those numbers are ticking up people
Shannon: people are feeling like there have been major layoffs uh happening and so if i were uh polyamory i would be pivoting to that tale of woe fairly soon uh to kind of get off the big
SPEAKER_00: tale of
Shannon: nation building stuff where you're not going to compete and onto a terrain where you can uh and start to shore up some of those private sector uh unionized workers uh some of that uh some of those seats that they they won kitchener elsewhere in southern ontario uh so that's for them but if i was carny i would also be pivoting a little bit from the clouds down to the ground uh to you know actually demonstrate like no like we're still in a crisis here people and i am the man for the crisis i'm not just the man for the dreams on how to get out of it but how to uh deal with people's material reality right here right now i
SPEAKER_00: actually demonstrate
Zain: i think that's such an important point right around the the guy who could take opportunity of the moment to get things we haven't been able to get done for a long time on a generational level while also somehow being the same guy that's able to be acutely, you know, responsive to the moment in people's jobs. Can we talk about the list for a second? Sure. And Carter, can I start with you? Because I think I've got Shannon's take already around, at least from a policy perspective. Shannon, so to be fair with you, I want to come back to you on this in a sec.
Zain: The political cost to Carney for not having a concrete list. Shannon talked to me about the policy cost and what the prudent thing would be to do from a policy perspective. But the political cost for Carney, who promised a list, but
Zain: we didn't get a list today. As
Carter: As soon as you see a list, people are going to start complaining. My project's not on the list. That project shouldn't be on the list. This project's going to destroy the environment. This project's going to save the environment. I mean, everything that happens is going to wind up being complained about. So the longer you can delay having a list, the better off you actually are. and it's right now it's probably beneficial to work with the premiers as though there is no list there is no end there is no beginning it is an open field for you and the premiers to work working with i'm assuming this these projects are mostly going to be partnerships i don't think that they should be you know the federal government just arriving with a you know with a bulldozer and making shit happen i think that this these are going to be partnerships with the provinces i think that there'll be uh lots of different things to work out lots of different priorities You know, Shannon mentions the Port of St. John. Well, that's one priority in one province. I mean, how do you weigh against all of the priorities across the country against one another? I mean, this list is going to be really long and really hard to prioritize. And sometimes the priorities might come down to who's willing to partner, who's willing to take X number of dollars and turn it into X times three. That's going to be very, very much interesting.
Zain: as you see a list, people are
Shannon: the longer
Zain: The political cost for not having a list today, even though one was promised to us. I
Shannon: think it's better. And to this point about, you know, having a bit of a drumbeat of announcements, there's nothing bigger than, oh, we've got another nation building project, right? Right. And you can then keep the drumbeat alive. I think that's a really important piece. And to Carter's point, I mean, they're as soon as you sort of show
Shannon: show your hand, your cards, that's
Shannon: that's when the lawyers get to work.
Carter: And
Shannon: And so and then you get conflict. Right. And and he doesn't want that right now. He doesn't have that. He had like one of the most rare days in Canadian politics today when he didn't have that. So he's going to want more of that.
SPEAKER_00: and he doesn't want that
SPEAKER_00: today when
Zain: he's going to want more of that. I agree with you in terms of the rarity of the day. But with your two minds, though, help me help Carney when
Zain: he has to release that list. In
Zain: the sense of, what does it look like? Like,
Zain: Like, is it just kind of like the school gymnasium coach, you know, or like the drama auditions, just like putting it on the corkboard, here are the 10 people who made the cut? Is it the first of every month he announces a nation-building project? Like, is it one project at a time? I think it's one at a time. One
Shannon: the cut?
Shannon: I think it's one at a time. One or two, right? Right. And we've done
Zain: we've done the
Shannon: done the due diligence. These ones are ready to rock and roll. Off we go. And more to come. He said as much today in his presser. He said, you know, this is an ongoing process. It's not like, you know, they've sent in their list and now the provinces and now there's a gate that comes down or something. And that was his phrasing. So there will be more. Provinces should act that way and they should continue. They should be doing their due diligence. I have seen some stuff
Shannon: stuff out there that, you
Shannon: you know, makes my eyebrows go up a little bit. And there's, you know, a lot of people that are just seeing, you know, sugarplum fairies dropping free money bags. And that is not good for Canadians. And I'm there are very few, you know, PMs that I would trust to actually, you know, want to do some due diligence on this. A former central banker. I mean, even the lefty in me is kind of glad for that due diligence on this stuff. But I would just be moving it. I think they will have to by necessity move them out one or two at a time. But that's exactly what they should do. You
Zain: think that's also, just to get your take clear on this, you think that's also the optimal political thing to do? Absolutely. Carter, where are you at with this? Totally.
Carter: Totally. I think as soon as you throw up a list that has a finite end, people are going to lose their shit. The beauty of one at a time is that there's no finite end. Rolling admissions.
Zain: end. Rolling admissions. Rolling admissions. Right. There's another
Carter: admissions.
Carter: admissions. Rolling admissions. Right. There's another one just down the road. And maybe there comes a time when you have to say, we're all done. Right? But we're all done. And it could happen in two years, three years, four years, five years. It really depends on the economy. It depends on what the size and scope of these investments look like, how they're financed, and how other governments are responding to them. But at the end of the day, one
Carter: more coming down, don't worry, your project's next, is what I want you to think, Zane. I want you to think, don't worry, your project's next. So if you've got this, if you're really excited, really excited for high speed rail in Alberta, it could be next. It could be the next nation building project that's going to be built right after, you know, high speed rail in Eastern Canada.
Zain: to think,
Zain: Right, right, right. Talk to me about two things here. Carter, what would demonstrate a quick win for him? There's obviously going to be strategy in choosing what's the first couple of things, right? Right. So if you guys are both whispering into Carney's ear around how you choose the first couple of things policy wise, for sure, but also strategy wise, do they need to be cheap? Do they need to be quick turnaround? Do they need to be geographic focused? How does he communicate that it is doing the job that he is set out to do? Because project number nine might be two years away, for
Zain: example. Right. Like if we're if we're talking about the breadth of consultations, etc and maybe i'm even being too bullish so how are you kind of navigating the comms and the choices of the first couple so that they create the broader story and point that you're trying to make
Carter: shovel ready
Carter: shovel ready is the first thing has it already gone through their environmental assessment is what is the what is the thing that's standing in the way if it's just money that's standing in the way of this project then that's that project gets done if it's something like a pipeline that has to go across the nation with an environmental and First Nations consultation process, that's less good, much less good, because now that could be a 10-year project. What's the point of announcing a 10-year project? People
Carter: People want to see things get done right away. Shovel-ready with
Carter: with the partnership of other levels of government is exactly what you're hoping for.
Zain: Shane, what do you think? What is the definition of a political quick win here in your mind?
Shannon: Sure. I'm not sure what shovel-ready means. And, you know, there's all kinds of jokes. You know, people have been on the receiving end of lobbying for large projects. We'll tell you that, like, everything is shovel-ready. And I can't tell you how many times I had heard that. And it's probably not real.
Shannon: Everything
Carter: Everything
Shannon: Everything
Carter: Everything is real when I say it's real, Shannon Phillips.
Shannon: Everything is
Shannon: Phillips.
Shannon: No.
Carter: No.
Shannon: No.
Carter: No.
Shannon: No. Well, hold on. Before
Carter: Well,
Zain: Well, hold on. Before you get there. Can you talk to me about your experience with that being on the other end of like being lobbied things that people say are shovel ready? Like, was it just like, would your team have to do due diligence on that? Well, the GOA would. I
Carter: Before
Shannon: people say are
Shannon: Well, the GOA would. I mean, the GOA would. But even for, you know, flood mitigation, this kind of stuff, right, which, you know, was funded out of my department, you know, you get all kinds of representations from municipalities of, you know, things are ready to go.
Zain: the GOA would.
SPEAKER_00: know, was funded
Shannon: They were demonstrably not ready to go. But so, you know, that stuff happens. It happens through all kind of government procurement infrastructure projects. I'm sure it happens to munis as well, right? They get the same kind of representations. And then you have private sector proponents for various projects who come in and say, oh, you know, my factory widget making is going to employ, you know, untold thousands of people and bring in untold millions of tax revenue and what have you. And it's shovel ready. It is also not. But that's fine. That happens all the time. Right. Which is why that level of due diligence is really important. And if it is actually ready to go, then or even if it's close, and this is where like, I, I given a bit of confidence that a guy who was, you know, the chair of Brookfield, I will have some sense on how projects are financed and managed. But I also think there needs to be some there's there's got to be regional politics here to keep his friends on side. I'm glad you said
SPEAKER_00: come in and say, oh, you
SPEAKER_00: revenue and what have
Zain: I'm glad you said that. I'm surprised Carter didn't, but I'm glad you said that. I
Shannon: that. I mean, let's just look at the rank politics here. You gained a bunch of seats in British Columbia,
Shannon: and you've got a more tenuous coalition to hold together in British Columbia for the Liberal Party of Canada than you have elsewhere. You have to get back some of that more working-class, blue-collar vote in southern Ontario, okay? And you need to have an affordability pitch there. Maybe it's not a nation building project in Brampton, maybe it's more housing there, but I'd also be doing some polling on what people are looking for in those areas. And you also have to hold together a Quebec coalition. If you're going to go stomping through the environment, you're going to find PDQ that the BQ is going to start eating your lunch, right? So you have to think about those regional dynamics, but I would say because of that, you're going to want to look at British Columbia and Southern Ontario as two spots where if you've got something, move it. Ready
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Zain: want to get back to the regional politics in a second and this is related but you know one of shannon's comments carter really kind of hit home for me in how much
Zain: we're relying on the The PM himself and his skill set to
Zain: like champion a lot of this shit. Like the fact that Shannon just brings up, oh, well, this is a this is the guy who's got the Brookfield, you know, experience like he'll be able to understand the financing on each project. It's like we're asking the prime minister of this country to bring those skills at a very, you know, like
Zain: specific level of detail to be able to green light projects like we're not even talking about committees or task forces or departments. And
Carter: the heart of my question is, how
Zain: how does Carney lead this without wearing all of the downside risks? We're almost pretending like there's none here. There's a lot, right? Shannon's mentioned at some point we'll get back onto the regular script where Moe and Smith will be disgruntled. Southern Ontario will be fickle, right? BC will go perhaps back to their more core environmental roots. Like, things will reset. So how does Carney lead this without wearing this? Like, is there something he can do around ensuring the provinces are now responsible and he's the gatekeeper of finances? Or has he set the self up from a political perspective that it's it's
Carter: it's him and only him? You're describing risk and reward. You're describing risk and reward and the risk is for Carney that he has to wear it. The reward is that Carney gets to wear it. If you want to have the bouquet placed around your neck as the champion of the world, as I often am, then you have to be willing to undertake the risk. If you're not willing to undertake the risk, then you're not going to get that reward. And I think that this is where Trudeau often found himself playing in little tiny fields on little tiny issues because he was unwilling to
Zain: unwilling to take
Carter: take that risk. So for
Carter: me, that's a benefit, not a negative. Yes, there is a risk attached to it. Yes, there is a reward attached to it. Which one of those is going to happen? I
Carter: don't know. It feels like we're tracking towards reward, but we don't know. That's the beauty of politics. You have to choose to do what you think is right, and then you will get either rewarded or destroyed by it. I don't know if Shannon has any experience with the carbon tax or anything like that, but sometimes you
Zain: you
Carter: you win, and other times you lose.
Shannon: Absolutely. I mean, and he has set very, very high expectations, and that can be a very dangerous thing, and he's decided he's going to take the dangerous path. Because the other option is to keep running things like Trudeau did, which is sometimes it took them four or five years to get through a consultation process on something they cared about. And that just made more opportunity for people to go to war on it. I'm thinking here of the emissions cap legislation, the electricity regs, you know, these were the emissions cap in particular, I want to say it was three or four years of consult, right, from sort of idea to like, not even execution. And so, you know, people did get tired of that at various levels. And not just, you know, on the in Alberta or on the so called right or whatever the case may be, it just, it took them a long time to do anything. thing uh you know i'm thinking here of like long-term care act some of these things i remember sitting listening to a liberal mp tell me privately well we just need more time so that we can do that and
SPEAKER_00: they cared about.
Shannon: and i'm like you promised it in the 2021 platform uh so and here we are in late 2024 right uh it just took them forever uh and you know that that's uh just dithering around you know talking and government-itis, people
SPEAKER_02: right uh
Carter: uh
SPEAKER_02: uh
Carter: uh
Shannon: people see through that. They don't like it. So he's
Shannon: he's going to take some chances. There are going to be failures on this. There will be the odd project that goes wildly off the rails. But Canadians also have a fairly high tolerance for that. TMX was originally budgeted at $8 billion. It came in at $34. If you were to go and do a poll tomorrow, I don't think you would find opposition. To it in Alberta or British Columbia. Churchill Falls is another one, went billions of dollars over, both projects as far as I know. It's just, you know, like a massive overspend by the federal government. These things happen. And Canadians, if they see a benefit, do have an appetite. Not only are they okay with it, they have an appetite for it. They're like, fine.
Zain: will be the
Shannon: I
Zain: want to stick with you, Shannon, on this. You know, one of the reasons I'm sitting on a bed in Toronto in a hotel room is because I'm here for a board meeting for the Samara Center for Democracy. And one of my board colleagues asked this really interesting question to our fellow board members. And I want to phrase it here, which is, do you think, as a former minister yourself, having an understanding of the public service,
Zain: so right sizes for the Ottawa conversation, do you feel like the public service can keep up to his ambitions or at least his rhetorical promises that he's put out? Let's say Carney wants to go quick. Let's say Carney finds premiers who want to go quick. Let's say Carney finds cabinet and a PMO that wants to go quick. The one aspect we haven't necessarily dug into is, can the public service actually allow him to go quick? Can they, you know, and this
Zain: is not to deride the public service in any way, but it's really to ask a question of, they're tooled to not in some ways. So how do you see that portion of it? If everything aligns, if the stars are aligning and it's kumbaya, as I've said three times today with the premiers and he's got a chief of staff, which he just announced today, well-regarded, celebrated chief of staff, people are like, great pick, right? If all that's going well, we
Zain: rarely talk about this. But in this case, the public service, can the public service allow him to go quick? Your thoughts?
Shannon: They have to or they will be restructured and moved. He is someone who has also worked in the public service in finance and holds, you know, a quick and efficient public service, like, for example, at Whitehall in the United Kingdom in high regard. So we'll see. There will be a level of tension there. There's no question, because to
Shannon: to your point, Zane, as my Deputy Minister Eric Denhoff used to say, well, you know, Minister, doing
Shannon: doing nothing is a perfectly legitimate public service response to whatever your query is.
Carter: And that
Shannon: that
Carter: that
Shannon: that
Carter: that
Shannon: that
Carter: that
Shannon: that
Carter: that
Shannon: that can pervade the civil service sometimes. You know, he was being, he was telling a joke, but it had a kernel of reality.
Zain: he
SPEAKER_00: he was telling a joke, but
Zain: but
SPEAKER_00: but
Zain: had a kernel of reality.
Zain: Doing nothing as in getting out of your way or doing nothing as in like, you may request it? You would like some
Shannon: you may request it? You would like some advice on what to do. And we're going to give you option A, which is to do nothing.
Shannon: And so, you know, some of that is there. I think that is an open question. Because Mr. Carney has also indicated a significant operational budget review and identifying some savings of, you know, $20 billion. That is significant. So there will be some tension there. But this will be the summer when they are not going to Muskoka. And it is time for them to demonstrate their work, I think.
Carter: identifying
Zain: Carter, can the public service keep up? Can Ottawa establishment keep up? Yeah,
Carter: Yeah, you're not going to move the entire public service at the same time, either.
Carter: either. You're going to move certain areas a lot. So, you know, as you move through your infrastructures, your transportations, those departments are going to get hammered, as is finance. But not every department, I mean, not
Carter: every department is going to be moving at the same pace. and that enables you to move some bureaucrats around as as people uh uh succeed or fail in the environment i remember you know when we when as chief of staff we we would have different moments when when different deputies would have to step up and that was i'm sorry what government
Shannon: i'm sorry what government was that carter we're
Carter: we're not doing the counter today it
Carter: it
Zain: it was fathers against what fathers against i'm I'm not talking to either
Carter: talking to either of you guys anymore. Both of you two are on my... Both
Zain: Both of you two are on my... Both
Carter: Both of you two have gone too far.
Zain: of you two
Carter: Gone too far.
Carter: I'm
Zain: I'm done.
Carter: done.
Zain: done.
Zain: She
Zain: She turned out to be a great premier. That's
Carter: That's
Zain: That's all
Carter: all I'll
Zain: I'll
Carter: I'll say. I will kick your ass later.
Zain: I loved those 15 minutes, Carter. It was six whole
Carter: It was six whole months. It was good. It
Zain: It was a job well done.
Carter: was
Shannon: was a job well done. Anyway, moving on. Shannon,
Zain: which province is... Which province, which region, which group is
Zain: kind of at the greatest risk right now? Like, when you look at the board, board we're still sticking with the nation building project stuff right that's been the key like is
Carter: key like
Zain: there someone that you're like i don't like their position that they've either are going to be forced in or they have to take go along to get along i don't like where they stood on certain things uh so i'm asking it in a broader sense not to guide you to an answer but you know in certain things if you're playing a finite game and this you could say is a finite game we just you know with rolling admissions we don't know when that will look like but who's like kind of looking a bit shaky already who's going to be you know uh
Zain: uh you know in in a position where you're not necessarily keen to be them right now
Shannon: um we can do a bit of process of elimination the atlantic canadian premiers are in very good shape with a lot of their because a lot of what they are looking for is electricity infrastructure so that they were all very very happy today when i watched their interviews and for good reason um
Shannon: um and uh certainly they do need some export uh diversification and, again, the types of investments that Mr. Carney is looking at making and what they actually need, it actually aligns pretty well.
Shannon: If you move across, Doug Ford, I mean, it's Ontario, they're going to get with their amazing things. Quebec might be in a bit of a spot, right, because there's a tension. Obviously, there will be tension. And Mr. Legault is going into an election within whatever it is, a year, a year and a half. uh so
SPEAKER_00: because there's
SPEAKER_02: uh so
Shannon: so
Shannon: so there's that that might you know not exactly go along the track that people want it to wab is obviously you know uh premier jesus he's fine uh he's in good shape uh and scott moe will do whatever danielle does uh because he just you know is kind of slip streaming behind her and he's just hoping that he doesn't get thrown overboard does he remind anybody else of
Carter: does he remind anybody else of the scarecrow from From the Wizard of Oz? Or is that just me?
Carter: If he only had a brain. Is
Carter: Is it just?
Carter: Jesus Christ,
Zain: Christ, Carter. What?
Carter: What?
Zain: What?
Zain: I'm just asking a question. I wasn't sure where you were going until you went right for the fucking temples. But okay.
Shannon: Yeah. And then, I mean, I think the most vulnerable of anyone, I mean, the guy in the Yukon is going into an election. So, you know, he's going to have to, I can't, anyway, he's going to have to show some movement
Shannon: movement movement there um and uh mr eby is probably uh on the most knife's edge uh as soon as daniel smith starts talking about northern gateway uh oh boy does that uh start inflicting uh putting basically starting to you know uh push into an old bruce uh for the bcndp for
Carter: bcndp for
Shannon: for the province uh and they've just gone through their own fast track legislation conversation uh they had to to go back and rewrite a little bit on it. I think they mostly got through it because the government's really quite popular right now, far more popular than when they won the election barely in October.
Shannon: But Gateway can revive the Green Party that had pretty much, you know, like... Disappeared. Yeah,
Carter: Disappeared. Yeah,
Shannon: Yeah,
Shannon: Yeah, they'd pretty much disappeared. So it can. The good news is, at least for Evie right now, number one, he is extremely popular right now. And the government's approach to the response to Trump is really popular. Even the fast track legislation doesn't appear to have really like rattled them too much. It may be rattled their internal coalition a little bit, but it hasn't rattled their numbers.
Shannon: And obviously their opposition is in total disarray. So I mean, that situation is not going to change anytime soon. But his internal coalition dynamics are going to become much more difficult if that's the project that Daniel Smith keeps putting in the window every
Shannon: every two minutes, which
Shannon: which is why I also said there has to be something in
Shannon: in the first instance from Carney. Maybe it's LNG related. Maybe it's some other energy related project that he can basically say, we're doing this. To
Zain: To offset Carney. Exactly. Yeah, for EB. That's smart. I like that. But Carter, do you agree with Shannon's assessment or do you kind of have a different take around who's not in the greatest position right now, at least from a regional lens? I
Shannon: Exactly. Yeah,
Carter: I mean, Shannon's learned. She's smart. She has wonderfully formed opinions, but
Carter: but she's just wrong. Danielle Smith. Danielle Smith is the one who's probably in the most difficult because she's built herself into a box. She's the one who's, she and Scott Moe, her friend, the Scarecrow. I mean, basically what we have is the Tin Man and the Scarecrow running down trying to find the Wizard of Oz and kill him. The Wizard of Oz in this story is Mark Carney. So if you're Mark Carney, how much do you want to, I mean, sure, you're going to talk about turning Canada into an energy superpower. You're going to say all the right words, but what are you actually going to do to do that? One of the things that is the hardest to understand in this environment is we are already sending out more oil than we ever have. We are selling more oil than we ever have. We are sending it out to markets that we never sent to before. We are doing the things that we want to do, and we're still bitching.
Carter: So what exactly is it that Mark Carney is going to do? Turn the taps up a little bit more on the oil sands? Really push the in situ? There are no new projects planned, right? Right. There's nothing on, you know, you talk about shovel ready. There's nothing shovel ready here, except maybe turning the taps up just a little bit. And
Shannon: There's
SPEAKER_01: There's
Shannon: And CCUS. There is that, right? If there is a final investment decision, then that's a lot of... Did you just acronym me? Sorry. Acronym me?
Carter: And CCUS.
Carter: investment decision, then that's
Zain: that's a lot of... Did you just acronym me? Sorry. Acronym me? FMM? FMM. MFM. Yeah. CCUS?
Shannon: FMM?
Carter: FMM. MFM.
Shannon: CCUS?
Shannon: The carbon capture. Yeah, that's fine. You know. I'm in. If it ever happens. We're in for the carbon capture.
Carter: Yeah, that's fine. You know. I'm in. If it ever happens. We're in for the carbon capture.
Carter: Let's do it.
Shannon: Let's do it.
Shannon: But the reason why I glossed over Mo and Smith is because whatever happens, they win, right? If things move forward, okay, great. It's because we, you know, we fought for our provinces. If things don't move forward or if things do, they will just move the goalposts to something else for the endless grievance train, right? And if it's, oh, okay, we've got pipeline stuff happening, well, then I'm going to turn my attention to the industrial carbon price. I'm going to turn my attention to some other thing, the equalization formula. Again, I don't see a situation in which that disadvantages her, because at some point there will be disagreement with Carney and she will be happy. You
Carter: know, you're right. It's only the people of Alberta who will be disadvantaged. My bad. My bad. My mistake. The public interest takes a bit of a bruising. I'd like to publicly apologize to Shannon Phillips. I was wrong and she was right. She
Shannon: bad.
Shannon: mistake. The public interest takes a bit of a bruising. I'd like to publicly apologize to
Shannon: was
Zain: was wrong and she
Zain: She was thinking too connivingly and too Machiavellian. And Carter, you, as always, just save the public. You always are about the people. I'm always about the people.
Carter: I'm always
Carter: I
Zain: I appreciate that. The
Shannon: I appreciate that.
Carter: that.
Shannon: that. The
Carter: The earnestness is...
Shannon: is...
Carter: is... Earnestness. You know what? I bring earnestness to this show. You
Shannon: is... Earnestness. You know what?
Carter: You know? You do.
Zain: You do. That's what I sense.
Zain: From you? I
Carter: From you?
Zain: I used to bring earnestness to the show. Now I just bring... I don't know what you bring anymore. I'm late. I'm unprepared. I don't have a mic.
Carter: I don't know what you bring anymore. I'm late. I'm
Carter: a disaster.
Zain: Let's move it on to our under and our lightning round. Stephen Carter, we do this for you despite the fact that you really don't seem to enjoy it. You really don't seem to appreciate it. No, I love
Carter: appreciate it. No, I love this. This is my favorite part.
Zain: Carter, tell me this. One major risk, outlining for me, strategic political risk for Mark Carney between now, as we record June 2nd, and July 1st. July 1st is a big date on the Carney calendar that he's circled. We've had an hour-long, nearly hour-long conversation about the nation-building project. It doesn't have to be about that. But give me one key Carney risk that you could whisper into his ear and be like, make sure about this, sir, between now and July 1.
Carter: That he's unable to bring one project to the table that we can get started on.
Carter: You think he needs one before July 1? I think he needs to be able to point to something and say, we're going to do that.
Carter: That is a thing that we need to do, and we're going to do that thing before July 1. Interesting. Because there's no point doing it in July and August. And by September, he will have lost his momentum.
Zain: Shannon, July 1, Mark Carney, what's the risk between now and then?
Shannon: Big Indigenous protests start, Either out of British Columbia or another place where or what Ontario is doing up in with their legislation having to do with the Ring of Fire erupts, you know, at Queen's Park and there's a spillover effect into, you know, onto the lawn of Parliament. Or there's a big AFN push of some kind, right? They've already been a little bit on the heels of
Zain: little bit on the heels of a project being selected. No, or just in general. No, just in general. Because we've
Shannon: or just in general. No, just in general. Because we've already seen some nervousness and some trepidation. So if you start to see some of those pieces move, even within the next two or three weeks, that is a huge risk.
Zain: Shannon, let's stick with you for this next one. Risk for Pierre and the Conservatives between now and that same time period, now and July 1st. Obviously, they're opposition. Carter says they need to give it some time. He said that time is Thursday, so I'm going to extend the clock. Between now and July 1, what's our risk for the Conservatives? it is?
Shannon: Internal problems, because they can always, you know, if their high water mark was 41 on election day, depending how things, you know, settle out over the next two or three years, that might be enough for a majority. So the actual public support right now is a lot less important than people starting to snipe at each other. And so the internal caucus and party dynamics are the
SPEAKER_01: the
Shannon: the
SPEAKER_01: the most important thing
Shannon: thing
Carter: thing for Mr. Polayev.
Zain: Carter, where's between Angela and Mike? Well, I
Carter: Well, I mean, again, Shannon's completely wrong. I mean, it is the internal party dynamics that are probably the most important thing.
Zain: I'm so glad we do this for you, especially when you pay so much attention. Stephen
Carter: Stephen
Zain: Stephen Carter,
Carter: Carter, let
Zain: let
Zain: let me end here. Let me start with you on this final question.
Zain: Overrated or underrated, the selection of the first project, what it is, is that overrated or underrated in the grand political scheme of things in your mind? I
Carter: I think it's underrated. I think that this thing has the chance of being a real political win or a real political burden. Whatever you choose to come out of the gates with, if it is a reasonable-sized project that gets people excited, this could be defining of the government.
Carter: And it could be defining of the government the other way if it doesn't capture people's attention. It can turn into a white elephant very, very quickly. does
Zain: does that perfect project mid-size exciting shows progress like does this unicorn of a project that shovel ready that like has already met thresholds on consultation i'm just giving you random shit but you know what i'm trying to say does
Carter: does this unicorn project exist in your high speed rail i'm
Zain: speed rail
Carter: telling you people will love it
Zain: overrated underrated overrated underrated the first project choice overrated
Shannon: overrated underrated
Shannon: overrated uh because it's not going to happen as one uh there will be either either more than one or there will be a process of some kind right like here's the criteria and who's here's who meets these criteria and then we'll go on to other criteria or uh some other uh staging of it i just don't think they're going to be like here's one thing
SPEAKER_00: thing not
Shannon: not gonna
Shannon: gonna
Carter: gonna my god it's
Shannon: my god
Carter: it's just so wrong just
Carter: so wrong this is the shannon was wrong episode shannon was wrong i could be wrong i'm just testing it out seeing if it works as well as it did with with cory it doesn't seem It doesn't seem to be working as well.
Shannon: so wrong
Shannon: shannon was wrong
Zain: it out
Zain: as it did with with
Zain: Yeah. No, it's not being received well by her, and there's a bit of me inside that's dying while you do it. I'm okay with it,
Shannon: okay with it, and here's why. It's always important to admit that you're wrong in this business. No, but he actually
Zain: business. No, but he actually doesn't mean you're wrong. I know. I'm
Shannon: know. I'm being earnest. I'm being earnest. Oh, I like the earnestness. That's good.
Carter: good.
Shannon: good. That's
Carter: That's good.
Shannon: good.
Zain: We're going to leave it there. That's a wrap on Episode 1873 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Velgey. With me, as always, Shannon Phillips, Stephen Carter. Carter. And we shall see you next time.
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