Episode 1871: Chief of Campaigns

Zain 0:01

This is a strategist episode 1871. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Stephen Carter and Chris Henderson. What's up, Chris?

Zain 0:10

Hey, Zain. Stephen, how are you doing?

Carter 0:13

Well, I don't know.

Carter 0:14

mean, he sounded so professional right there. I feel like I have to step my game up. You know

Carter 0:18

why he sounds professional? You

Zain 0:19

You know why he sounds smart? It's because he's got the

Zain 0:21

initials as one Corey Hogan who's dead to us. Is

Carter 0:23

Is that the only reason that we brought him on? I mean, it is

Zain 0:26

is part of the strategist constitution that we at least, uh, on occasion bring someone on with the same initials. I don't know if you want to talk to the audience about the strategist constitution. You wrote it yourself, which

Zain 0:37

which is why I want to leave

Carter 0:37

leave it to you. I made some mistakes. Um, yeah. Only people with the initial CH can actually work the books. So welcome aboard is our bookkeeper.

Carter 0:45

Um, and, uh, yeah,

Carter 0:50

well, people wanted me to do it. Um, anyways, uh, it's, it's the same. It's just, you know, the Constitution basically dictates that we have to record a certain number of episodes per year. That number is four. And once we get over that, then

Carter 1:05

then we're pretty much set, right?

Zain 1:08

of the Constitution, I think you nailed.

Carter 1:10

I did. It has been difficult in

Zain 1:12

in the past for me to hit that part.

Carter 1:16

We call it the Velji. The Velji, yeah.

Zain 1:18

How surprised were you that I didn't bail tonight, Carter?

Carter 1:22

Well, I'm not very surprised because you invited Chris. Yeah.

Zain 1:24

Yeah. See, Chris, this is the thing. You're going to learn this. I will let you introduce yourself in a second. I often bail on the show.

Zain 1:30

And then I leave Carter in a lurch. But because you are so special and so smart, I'm not going to do that. Do you want to introduce yourself?

SPEAKER_01 1:37

Yeah, sure. Thanks, Zane. I'm Chris Henderson. I am a partner and strategist at Y Station Communications and Research, which is a

SPEAKER_01 1:46

communications and research firm uh in my previous life i was a campaign manager for don ivison nevington and i've also managed uh so i've also worked on a number of uh

SPEAKER_01 1:59

uh campaigns before and since then in more shadowy and mysterious roles oh

Carter 2:05

oh that's shadowy and mysterious carter that's your language okay

Zain 2:08

okay that's pretty good i like that shadowy and mysterious here's the other thing though carter that's not his claim to fame his claim to fame is shouting at you at a live show yeah

SPEAKER_01 2:17

yeah this is not the first time i've been on the show yeah okay you

Carter 2:21

you yelled at me live carter do you

SPEAKER_01 2:22

you know this story i really yell at you on the show let chris let chris give the story you

SPEAKER_01 2:28

you we were at the maharaj you did the live show the maharaj that was classic like i took i caught a stray from you for no reason did you give me audio yeah like like you just like attacked me for no reason uh

SPEAKER_01 2:43

uh we can i'm sure that i'm sure there's audio of it and but when

SPEAKER_01 2:46

when you say you're sure there's audio of

Zain 2:48

of it you mean you listen to it on a weekly basis yeah

SPEAKER_01 2:50

yeah i listen to it every time i need like a hype up moment because

SPEAKER_01 2:54

because i i was at the very back and you like i wasn't even really paying attention i'm sure i was looking at my phone and you said you just you made fun of me did you know wait did you know chris was there did you don't remember this at all carter he didn't know i was there which is what makes it even worse and

SPEAKER_01 3:12

and so i yelled fuck you carter and then he yelled fuck you chris back into the in the microphone it

Carter 3:18

turns out that most of us that are in the game actually like each other except for chris who doesn't like anybody chris henderson how are you buddy good to see you um

SPEAKER_01 3:31

if you listen to the recording you can faintly hear me yell fuck you carter from the back that's

Carter 3:36

that's a winning that's a winning strategy it's

SPEAKER_01 3:38

it's a it was a beautiful moment in my life and i i would well thanks for

Carter 3:41

for coming on the show even though there was that traitorous

Zain 3:45

as as part of your initiation chris uh fuck you and fuck you carter uh okay let's let's talk about this guys i want to talk about there's so much going on the king is here do we give a shit who knows who cares um you know my take uh although the family line on it is that we really care and yeah the family is very happy to be in the presence of the king okay um carter i

Zain 4:06

want to talk about jenny burn the

Zain 4:10

so the campaign manager and chris i think you're so well positioned for this topic as well simply because jenny burn is a contemporary in some ways yes she's runs campaigns like us and the

Zain 4:22

the campaign is over carter but the pressure Pressure keeps mounting from the conservative caucus to fire her. You know, let me just read you what the CBC and Radio Canada have reported. They say pressure is mounting as a conservative leader, Pierre Polyev, is to fire Jenny Byrne, his national campaign manager, who critics, especially those in the caucus, hold responsible for the party's defeat. If there's no change between now and January, the caucus will lose patience. Carter, there's a lot of discussion around, and we've talked about campaign managers in the past. When did they become so relevant? events we've talked about chiefs of staff and i want to save the chief of staff conversation because carney's having difficulty finding one that's also an interesting conversation but

Zain 5:01

but can we look at this from the eyes of one jenny burn carter sure you have run a campaign you have your ideological twin in pure poly f you

Zain 5:13

run this campaign in a way that was looking like a complete train wreck that your fate was sealed you were going to be done and And then the election happens, and the election's tighter than anticipated. You get more raw votes than you've had in a very long time. You increase your seat count, and your guy, Pierre Polyev, gets to say,

Zain 5:36

as Jenny Byrne, what argument would you be making to yourself right now? I'm going to keep fighting, or I'm going to find myself the door and call this a day. How would you, Stephen Carter, if you're in the shoes of not the party, but Jenny Byrne, be thinking about this?

Carter 5:49

Well, I mean, I think I'd be thinking about this. what's the best thing for me in the long run, right? And sometimes it's been difficult for me to think of what's in my best interest in the long run because my pride gets in the way. And I suspect that that's where Jenny is sitting right now. Her pride is saying to her, I have to stay, I have to hold on. Not only did they get the most, they got the second most number of votes of any political party in Canada's history. And Jenny Byrne did that. But it was second to

Carter 6:18

to Mark Carney's liberals and they did they they got the highest number um so right right off the bat um jenny lost and so with her pride intact i would say that it's time for her to leave um and

Carter 6:33

and then watch them sputter afterwards right you know how good you did jenny you did a great job you've got a podcast and a consulting firm waiting for you leave

Carter 6:43

leave go back to those things and you will make more money you will will be happier you will not be on call 24 7 and uh your life will will actually be better uh than it then will be if you stand and fight uh a group of caucus members who quite frankly are lucky to have held on to their own their own writings because what they know about elections uh can be held in a thimble henderson

Zain 7:06

henderson what do you think here like you you you're jenny burn you found yourself in this situation where the marks against you actually you know what's interesting about the story to me is that the marks against you don't necessarily seem to be that you lost the campaign. It's that you're a toxic personality. That's a quote. I'm not just pulling that out. I'm pulling this out from that you're a bad communicator and that you've belittled people.

Zain 7:30

That seems to be the marks against you. And the marks for you is that you've delivered the second most amount of votes ever, so to speak. How would you think about this if you're Jenny in this situation?

SPEAKER_01 7:40

Well, I think that maybe one of the things that I would say right off the top as people that have been campaign managers before is that if you win if they if she had won that election she would be this like total genius that's

SPEAKER_01 7:53

figure out a way to like capture new audio or capture new voters create a brand new foundation for the conservative movement you know canada's political genius the difference between being that and

SPEAKER_01 8:05

and being a uh like a toxic bully that

SPEAKER_01 8:08

that that can't communicate Kate refuse to listen to the people around you usually winning and losing like everyone's got an incredible story to tell about how a campaign came together but you know if you lose by like

SPEAKER_01 8:22

like really any amount people go away pretty quick and somebody gets stuck with the bag and I think Jenny I think Jenny's being stuck with the bag I think maybe what the question should be asking is do they think that there's actually anything wrong here I think they you know if you listen to the the way that some of the anybody who's been on any

SPEAKER_01 8:40

any of the cable or any of the the news shows and being interviewed in the the caucus speeches today or yesterday i i think they seem like they actually like they

SPEAKER_01 8:50

they won the election without winning the election i think they feel like they did really good they've got a lot of momentum that's

Zain 8:53

that's such a campaign

SPEAKER_01 8:55

their campaign really if you listen to their language that put the cpc the campaign really

SPEAKER_01 9:00

really hasn't ended their their

SPEAKER_01 9:01

their campaigning on the same issues uh

SPEAKER_01 9:03

uh which makes me feel like jenny bernsdale has a as

SPEAKER_01 9:06

as much much as the cbc's um radio canada says there that

SPEAKER_01 9:09

that she's on her way out or she's getting pressure to leave uh

SPEAKER_01 9:12

uh it feels like she's got a pretty good grip on everything well

Zain 9:15

well tell me this chris like you've run campaigns you've you've been in in in a situation where you've had to manage people we've all been in situations where um certain relationships just don't work out on campaigns that there's just a nature of things that you build these enterprises from the ground up that are supposed to last 30 60 90 days and then they're just

Zain 9:34

dead and people have memories sometimes good but sometimes not so good if you were jenny would you start would you like the question i'm trying to get at is do you fight for your life here do you look for the door how would you think about it if you're her i

SPEAKER_01 9:47

i i think it's it's kind of down to blame just her yeah

SPEAKER_01 9:50

she's looking to like it's clearly a political partnership like

SPEAKER_01 9:54

like like carter said um

SPEAKER_01 9:57

i think she's looking to to pierre poliev to determine what he wants to do here and is he willing to go out there and fight um i

SPEAKER_01 10:06

i might i might be i might if i were her if i were her shoes i might be i might say let's stick around and let's see how effective this government is going to be and whether we actually need to change course or whether we're going to be able to to put the same uh book into play in 12 months uh

SPEAKER_01 10:25

uh or 18 months or however long the the government lasts and uh and if if the this government doesn't do well then they can then

SPEAKER_01 10:33

then she might be in a good position to to

SPEAKER_01 10:35

to fire things up again and maybe people will like put up with whatever they think is toxic behavior i'm not saying she is or isn't yeah but

SPEAKER_01 10:42

but and then if they and if this government performs and the the cpc is going to need to to shift then i think they're gonna i think in this particular political configuration is probably taking them about as far as it can but i think they're right now i think they think that that that

SPEAKER_01 10:55

that canadians responded really well to

SPEAKER_01 10:58

to the campaign they put out there and

SPEAKER_01 11:00

and if i were her i would you know like i you know she did

SPEAKER_01 11:05

but you know you pointed the numbers and and plenty of conservatives have gone on tv to point at the numbers yeah i'd say that like look this is a winning formula it just there was an aberration in trump there's an aberration in carney once that all settles down and people aren't so fearful we'll take it with 222 seats like we were supposed to i i think there's there's a

Zain 11:23

a lot of good points in there and i'm distracted by all of them because carter you're wiping your forehead what are you doing what are you

Carter 11:28

for a mountain bike today yeah and you're are

Zain 11:30

are you still pedaling what the fuck is going

Zain 11:33

sweating what's going on

Zain 11:34

it's very distracting i'm

Carter 11:36

i'm fucking sweating like a pig why why well first of all i haven't opened my window yeah

Carter 11:42

that was these are mistakes you have made i

Carter 11:45

i went by mountain biking and then i had a shower because it's chris you can't just not show up you know you have to have a shower for chris you didn't have a shower for chris where he's i

Zain 11:54

i didn't i didn't have a shower for chris

Carter 11:56

yeah shower you know chris showered for you and

Carter 11:59

and then uh it's it's feel like you know that

Zain 12:01

you're in a way you shouldn't okay let me tell you something carter here's a couple okay here's a couple things that i think are really important points that henderson brought up number one the fact is that toxic

Zain 12:11

toxic bully versus like historic genius four seats away right

Zain 12:16

right four seats five 5000 votes ish. I don't remember the number was some fucking shit like that. Right. Really interesting point. The second interesting point, though, is that they're

Zain 12:24

they're continuing the campaign like Shriv Majumder today. Right. Like the all these guys are all these folks are not going on CBC. The conservative MP from Calgary is effectively just talking about the campaign, how they've won this thing. And they're already kind of like they're already talking about the historic margins and all that sort of stuff. The second part of the Jenny Byrne success story. So the question really does become, does she almost have the wind behind her back here, Carter, to say that if she just fights, plants her ground, doesn't do anything, and just suggests to people that we keep the campaign going, that that is enough of a distraction for them or that's enough of a B-side strategy for them to say, yeah, let's just make sense to keep Jenny around because the campaign hasn't ended. You don't change a campaign manager midstream because the campaign hasn't ended. We could be six months, 12 months, 18 months away from an election. Why get rid of the campaign manager when we're still in a campaign? I think that's pretty smart if that's where they're at. Do you think that's where they're at?

Carter 13:21

No, I don't. And Chris, I'm not sure if you know this, but campaigns end at the end of an election, right?

SPEAKER_01 13:27

I know that, but I think the entire CPC caucus did not get that memo this time. Yeah,

Zain 13:33

Yeah, and I'm taking Chris's point saying there might be some wisdom

Zain 13:35

though. There's no wisdom. Okay,

Carter 13:39

Because the truth of the matter is Jenny Byrne lost. And the reason that Jenny Byrne lost isn't because of some historical thing with Trump or some historical issue with, with Mark Carney. She lost because she was unable to pivot due to, you know, um, uh,

Carter 13:53

uh, historical issues with Trump, historical issues with Mark Carney. All she needed to do is pivot.

Carter 14:00

We called it, she called, you know, every, all she needed to do is listen to the strategists and we would have said to her, pivot, pivot, pivot. She did not pivot. it i feel like ross on the fucking friends episode when they're moving the fucking couch right just pivot for god's sake she lost because she can't pivot and i would argue the same thing for uh pierre pauliev pierre pauliev can't pivot ergo pierre pauliev shouldn't be the leader so

SPEAKER_01 14:28

so i would i would agree with that uh i just don't think that i i just don't think that that's the narrative that they're they're

SPEAKER_01 14:35

they're willing to put out there i think they think that they're going to be back on, on the, the hustings sooner rather than later, which I don't think they will be.

SPEAKER_01 14:43

Uh, and I think that they don't see that there is a, a

SPEAKER_01 14:46

a significant need to change what the, the formula from last time I haven't seen any introspection from Pierre Polyev.

SPEAKER_01 14:55

Uh, I also would not want to be, um,

SPEAKER_01 14:58

I would not want to be working with Pierre Polyev when he has to navigate the separatist question when he's, uh, he's,

SPEAKER_01 15:05

campaigning in Alberta. I think that's going to make things even worse and i think they probably

SPEAKER_01 15:09

would benefit from some new blood in to to manage

SPEAKER_01 15:12

manage all that but you know that just doesn't seem like the way they're they're playing this i think it feel like they're they

SPEAKER_01 15:20

know the wind just you know they got some bad weather and and otherwise they would have got 200 seats and i but i agree like they they weren't able to position effectively position themselves to talk about an existential crisis i have no idea what happened there i have no idea why they didn't see the the the dashboard uh and

SPEAKER_01 15:40

and but they didn't and and they still

Zain 15:42

still don't i guess here's here's the thought i have and i want to test this premise out with both of you guys because you guys are both all three of us have have been campaign managers of of campaigns that

Zain 15:52

that are relative that have been relatively sizable we've been talking about the importance of campaign managers like historically carter like you and i with hogan on the pot i've been talking about all campaign managers more important more public than ever ever before, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. We've talked about models of campaigners. Here's my new theory. Campaign managers are less important than ever before because you don't actually need to be the formal campaign manager in order to have influence on a campaign.

Zain 16:17

I think the three of us have realized with campaigns that we've not worked on, but often have advised the person that is managed, talking directly to the leader, have had a back channel that we often have more influence, sometimes significantly more influence, shaping something, putting it together, getting the outcome we want outside of the campaign manager position. So my question for you guys is an extension of, can

Zain 16:42

can Jenny Byrne have her cake and eat it too? Can she leave? Can she give Pierre Polyev what she wants, what he needs maybe potentially for his caucus and still have maybe even outsized influence on what the campaign looks like going

Zain 16:56

going forward if she doesn't hold the role of campaign manager? I'm almost trying to say the role of campaign manager might be overrated in how campaigns create and have structured input at a top line level. Carter, what do you think?

Carter 17:08

I think the campaign managers are far more important than advisors. I don't really, you know, I

Carter 17:13

I get it. I get what you're saying, you know, that there are the Jerry Butzes and the... I

Zain 17:18

I think that's a great

Zain 17:19

example of the Carding campaign,

Carter 17:21

I mean, someone who had the ear of the leader to be sure, but

Carter 17:26

but he didn't have the reins of the campaign. That was Braden Caley. And you need to have, or it was Andrew Bevan.

Carter 17:35

You need to have a campaign manager who's actually running the campaign. And Jenny Byrne, maybe she is too much of a strategic advisor, but a strategic advisor is never going to have the same type of influence that a campaign manager has. You don't think so? So I think a campaign manager is just infinitely more important in the overall scheme of things than an advisor. Anderson,

SPEAKER_01 17:55

Anderson, get in on this question. What do you think is... I

SPEAKER_01 17:57

think in order to do the model that you're talking about where you get to have your cake and eat it too by being an advisor to the campaign and seeing your fingerprints on it as the...

Zain 18:07

And having, in my argument, as potentially even more influence.

SPEAKER_01 18:10

Yeah, but I think you have to accept the model that you're not going to have full control because you're not looking at the budget. you're not you're

SPEAKER_01 18:17

you're not like signing off on on major you're not signing off on major purchases you're you're you are managing about budget all the personnel um

SPEAKER_01 18:24

um so you don't get the full control now and and the those people the people that sort of uh cut

SPEAKER_01 18:32

cut you out as a campaign manager and go directly to your candidate and and uh have you have you

Zain 18:37

you experienced that by the way in the past i'm curious have i yeah lord

Zain 18:42

uh wait wait lord no in the sense that like you you create the structure so that like you've created the structure in the past in your past campaigns that like there is systematized like you don't let anyone back channel i

SPEAKER_01 18:53

mean i mean let's be like very clear like i have not never run a like national no no but like your merrill's

Zain 18:59

like that's that's like an interesting case study it's i'd say yeah

SPEAKER_01 19:04

yeah but i mean like those campaigns the citywide campaigns and some of that are even the provincial campaigns that i worked on i was usually in on the ground floor or

SPEAKER_01 19:11

or like a lot of a lot of the campaign like was sort of shaped in my image anyway. And I, um, and my relationships with the candidates were usually

SPEAKER_01 19:20

like a lot, a lot stronger.

SPEAKER_01 19:22

Um, uh, or, or I had, I, I have been an advisor to the campaign

SPEAKER_01 19:28

campaign manager on a, on a campaign, particularly toward the end.

SPEAKER_01 19:32

Um, and you, you like, but I'm, I've, I've always been fairly, uh,

SPEAKER_01 19:40

I haven't been looking to be the campaign manager in the shadow. I've always tried to be like

SPEAKER_01 19:44

like anything I would say, uh, uh, to the candidate. I wouldn't say, uh, I wouldn't say it without the campaign manager there.

SPEAKER_01 19:52

And I, that doesn't strike me as Jenny. I don't know Jenny Byrne at all. Uh, but just based on the way she ran this campaign. That doesn't strike you as like a role. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 20:00

That doesn't, that doesn't strike me as her, as her, uh, as her speed. I think the coming in and coming out and maybe getting what she wants and maybe not getting what she wants. uh

SPEAKER_01 20:09

uh you know i i get the sense that she's maybe

SPEAKER_01 20:11

maybe the the most uh powerful

SPEAKER_01 20:14

powerful voice and probably the smartest person in the room uh

SPEAKER_01 20:19

and and you know maybe that played a part in why she didn't pivot the way she needed to but i

SPEAKER_01 20:25

i just don't i don't see that for her i think um

SPEAKER_01 20:29

yeah i i think she's either running i think she's either directing the ship or nothing at all yeah yeah

SPEAKER_01 20:34

yeah it's either directing the slideship of a conservative movement or she's not carter

Zain 20:37

carter i'm more intrigued now by the question of like have you when you've been managing a campaign had folks try to intercept get into your candidate directly try to influence without your sort of formal consent or have you created structures so that would not be the case most

Carter 20:54

most of the time i'm creating structures where that's not the case where the person that's giving the advice is

Carter 20:59

is back channeling through me first and then going to the to the principal but

Zain 21:02

but have you had like a best friend or a or you are a family member or sometime like you know someone who hasn't wanted to put themselves on an org chart

Zain 21:10

and and have have tried to you know without even like the nefarious intention but

Zain 21:15

but have have tried to kind of redirect the campaign or or elements of the campaign in a certain way yeah

Carter 21:21

yeah i think so i think i've had those people i mean but uh

Carter 21:25

uh i mean right

Carter 21:27

right most of them are on the org chart somewhere like randy dawson would try and get me fired every single day uh during the redford campaigns campaigns um succeeded

Carter 21:37

succeeded not once by the way congratulations

Carter 21:41

carter thank you very much yeah

Carter 21:42

you know generally if you're the campaign manager you have enough power and control to know who's going around you and you're able to try and grab them when i was chief of staff it was more difficult uh

Carter 21:53

uh because there's just more points of contact for the chief of staff or for the the

Carter 21:57

the premier or the principal with the uh with gen pop or the other other caucus members

SPEAKER_01 22:03

it yeah i i it does happen uh sort of the candidate

SPEAKER_01 22:08

candidate level people like major donors they might want to talk they might have lots of ideas uh other other polls um like other other elected officials or people that are on their way out they

SPEAKER_01 22:21

they always want to they always have something to say and you can't always be in the room there and sometimes that you know you come out and you have to talk uh

SPEAKER_01 22:29

uh talk to a candidate about a night like why we're not doing the thing that you know why why aren't we talking to this community or why

SPEAKER_01 22:34

why aren't we doing this this way and that i thought i found a little bit annoying but uh

SPEAKER_01 22:39

uh but i don't know i had a pretty good relationship like my my

SPEAKER_01 22:42

my relationship with uh dawn it was very

SPEAKER_01 22:46

we're very close in the way we worked out so yeah

Zain 22:50

yeah from when you started carter i want to move from campaign advisor to chief of staff and let's move from pure poly after mark carney can we talk about this sure

Zain 22:58

so So Carney comes in, global reputation, has people that have worked with him around the fucking world, can't find a chief of staff for the life of him. Is

Zain 23:08

Is that true or do you feel like we're being spun to something? And even if it isn't true, it's a weird story to come out. Now, for a guy that's so decisive to not have a chief in place that has already agreed or signed on the dotted lines mid-campaign, fucking frankly, even in the leadership, even

Zain 23:28

even in the transition, I

Zain 23:29

I just don't understand what's going on here. Am I reading too much into that, or is this just a guy that's such a political neophyte that doesn't understand the value or the purpose of a chief of staff? What do you make here?

Carter 23:42

Well, I mean, I think I was confused when Marco Mettino was appointed. Initially, you mean? Yeah, initially. He didn't seem like the strongest pick for someone who has this international reputation and international connections. And now to see that he's on his way out isn't necessarily a surprise. What is a surprise is that he's on his way out and there isn't a successor chosen.

Carter 24:06

Normally, there's a very small list of people that you can even call upon. bond, let alone someone that you can count on to take the role of chief of staff.

Zain 24:16

Can we talk about that for a second? Sure. I actually want to talk about how, and Chris, I want to get you in on this, because I think this is an important question. How big could the pool potentially be of chiefs of staff to Mark Carney? And let me give you the case of how it could be big, and let me give you the case of how it could be small. The big pool could be professional people Mark Carney's worked with that he trusts in a managerial style role. The smaller pool is people with connections to this caucus that understand parliamentary procedure.

Zain 24:46

Does someone need to cross that Venn diagram, or does someone need to come from pool A or pool B? Like, how do you think about it, Carter? And Chris, I'm kind of curious how you would think about this, too, if you're Team Carney on the recruiting side. So Carter, I'll let you go first, and then let Chris jump in.

Carter 25:00

When we put together our office in Redford's office, we put together specialists in policy, policy specialists in caucus relationships and specialists who could manage the candidate or manage the premier. And then the chief of staff was supposed to be the person who can manage all of those people.

Carter 25:18

Tom Pitfield, for example, is the principal secretary to Mark Carney. He knows all there is to know about this liberal party and has known it for the better part of 15 years. Yeah.

Carter 25:28

There is no requirement that anybody else come in and do the role that Tom Pitfield is doing. Although

Zain 25:35

Although he's also leaving, apparently. Is

Carter 25:38

Is he also on the way out?

Carter 25:38

I read that he was one of the 10 most influential people in in the office, including

Zain 25:43

including his wife, Anna Ganey. Yeah. But he is leaving as well. So you've got your principal secretary who has been the party's vendor on all things advertising, polling and has taken leave for that leaving. And then you have his sort of brain trust gone as well, potentially. But Carter, you're going to finish your thought, because I'm curious. How big is the recruiting pool here?

Carter 26:03

Well, with Pitfield leaving, the pool might be one or two people.

Zain 26:08

So you don't think you can find Carney's Goldman friends or anyone he's flown with professionally at Brookfield, bring one of those people along? You don't think that's a chief of staff? What I'm trying to get to is, what does a modern day PMO chief need? need if

Carter 26:21

someone's in the in the principal secretary role that really understands the caucus really understands the paul you know the liberal party then i think that'd be fine

Carter 26:29

um but realistically if pitfield's leaving um the list of people who could be the chief of staff uh dramatically dwindle hogan

Zain 26:39

hogan any any thoughts on our hogan sorry it's gonna be a frozen slip thank you hogan any thoughts on this let's just give him a moment hold on hold on let's just hogan any thoughts on this uh that's that's the shortest answer he's ever given us and probably the best henderson laid on me uh

SPEAKER_01 26:54

yeah um i think the the pool at the chief of staff job is i think a lot a little bit wider than carter thinks i think that there's there's got to be a group like a group of people that are willing to to

SPEAKER_01 27:06

take a a decent size pay cut that are you know like type

SPEAKER_01 27:10

type a like very

SPEAKER_01 27:12

very experienced and serious people that have worked at at

SPEAKER_01 27:15

at the financial So you feel like that sort of person

SPEAKER_01 27:42

like the mark harvey's got a really ambitious agenda and what's the wants to renegotiate the umca he's always going to be uh

SPEAKER_01 27:54

uh you know battling with our corner police reporter and and he's trying to reshape interprovincial trade more

SPEAKER_01 28:00

more to make up for a revenue shortfall more from our single biggest customer i mean those are like the three biggest things that any prime minister has decided to be take on since i don't know like in decades and um and

SPEAKER_01 28:15

and he he needs some like really serious guns on the legislative management side and over like

SPEAKER_01 28:20

like you know i'm sure i'm sure mark carney can be the person on those three things but

SPEAKER_01 28:25

but getting the rest of it moving or keeping the like getting the taps cut through and negotiating everything all the negotiation that has to happen in parliament and like i just don't think that he can do all that chair the g7 and

SPEAKER_01 28:38

and do the USNC it's just impossible and I think that that legislative team looks

SPEAKER_01 28:52

does look pretty small but they've got to find somebody otherwise there's just like this

SPEAKER_01 28:59

this guy wants to get a lot done by candidate wall. You

Zain 29:02

You know I agree with that completely and Carter like part of me I'm going to put out a crazy notion ocean okay and tell me if tell me if this is saleable mark

Zain 29:10

mark carney doesn't know what a political chief of staff does totally

Carter 29:14

totally saleable yeah mark

Zain 29:15

mark carney probably thinks it's like the chief of staff to the ceo at fucking brookfield which is frankly a glorified ea who's gonna have a better career ceiling than an ea i don't mean to sound fucking rude about it but that's kind of what modern day 25 year old chiefs of staff are at fortune 100 fortune 500 companies yeah am

SPEAKER_01 29:33

am i wrong that like mark carney may actually not know what this job is i don't i don't think he necessarily i mean i mean he certainly maybe like understands now but i don't think that it doesn't look like they're approaching it as if they're hiring somebody who literally

SPEAKER_01 29:45

literally the one a like arguably we have 200 issues like 200 issues are coming at the prime minister at all times the chief of staff resolves 197 of them yeah three are the ones that he works with or they sorry they work with the prime minister to to resolve uh

SPEAKER_01 30:02

uh and uh you know the model of that the

SPEAKER_01 30:05

the model the corporate model of the chief of staff is very different it's a little bit more administrative yeah yeah

SPEAKER_01 30:10

i think you know i think a smart determined person running a chief like i think we should really think about it as the the chief of staff office not just the chief of staff that's a good point and uh

SPEAKER_01 30:21

mean like you know in a municipal or even a provincial model maybe like the

SPEAKER_01 30:26

the chief of staff, I think, is not quite as elevated as the chief of staff in the PMO. Still very elevated.

SPEAKER_01 30:32

I think he's going to need to figure this out, or

SPEAKER_01 30:35

I think maybe Jenny Byrne will end up being right in front of me. I

Zain 30:41

think there's a chance

SPEAKER_01 30:42

chance to secure, yeah. They

Zain 30:44

They may not realize how big of a deal this is, Carter. Both with the inflection of my voice and the time dedicated to this, am I putting too much stock in this, or is this like a big fucking deal to not have this confidently, silently, and seamlessly figured out.

Carter 30:59

You know who knows how big a deal the chief of staff and the principal secretary is?

Carter 31:04

You? Jerry Butts. Yeah, sure. Jerry Butts knows. And Jerry's, Jerry, we talked about it just a few moments ago, Jerry's an informal advisor that's fairly publicly known. Yeah.

Carter 31:16

I think that Jerry Butts, you know, having been a principal secretary, having worked Worked alongside Katie Telford, having, I think he was chief of staff, or was he principal secretary to McGinty? I think for McGinty,

Zain 31:27

McGinty, he was, I think he, senior role, like top one or 1A, like one of those roles.

Carter 31:32

roles. Yeah, exactly. I mean, the man understands how government functions. And if Mark Carney's history is holding true, then he's listening to those who are smart around him. So I suspect that- Yet

Zain 31:46

Yet you agreed with me, saying it's saleable that Carney may not understand what a chief is. Oh,

Carter 31:50

Oh, no. I think that Carney doesn't understand.

Carter 31:53

don't think that his team, you know, ultimately, is this going to be one man's decision?

Carter 32:00

There's a decision that's going to be in there fairly deep.

Zain 32:03

But then, just not to interrupt you, but this is where I think I agree with Chris, that the pool should actually be going to Carney and saying, dude, who are your five most trusted colleagues? Sorry, you can't have Hodgson. He's your natural resources minister. Who are the five most impressive, trustworthy, intellectual equals that you have worked with in your time around the world, tell them to get on a fucking flight. One of them is going to be your chief of staff. Fuck

Carter 32:25

Fuck the parliamentary shit. We'll figure that out. Can we really afford to have a by-election in Calgary Confederation? Can

Carter 32:29

Can we really afford that?

SPEAKER_01 32:31

Honestly, I was... Sorry. Yeah, I was thinking that. But, yeah. Corey

Carter 32:37

Corey thinks that the political staff are lesser than the electeds.

Carter 32:41

Corey is very wrong-headed.

Zain 32:42

I'm stunned in silence. I am stunned in silence. Corey would never say that on this show.

SPEAKER_01 32:48

So, can I ask a question about jerry butts though sure like

SPEAKER_01 32:52

like this isn't a criticism of him but why is he in the in this conversation like

Carter 32:56

if he's in every conversation i

SPEAKER_01 32:58

i know he's in every conversation but the entire point of the cabinet shuffle uh

SPEAKER_01 33:02

uh or the cabinet appointments was new faces and jerry

SPEAKER_01 33:07

jerry butts is basically synonymous with the with the pmo or with fruto's pmo well

Zain 33:12

short answer to you is i i I don't know if Carney has many road-tested political animals

Zain 33:21

probably got a lot of people

Zain 33:22

people like him who have ambition in politics. And you're seeing a few of them on cabinet, Evan Solomon, Hodgson, others. You'd say that those two guys are his friends. They are people he likes. They're people that have run because of him. They're people in cabinet because they know Mark Carney. But I'm not sure he's got that crew on an advisory basis, Carter. And so to my original question, the pool, should it not be like, as Henderson said, should it not be larger rather than smaller as it relates to the people that Carney can recruit here?

Carter 33:57

I mean, should be is an interesting phrasing.

Carter 33:59

What should be, what is, is different than what should be most of the time. I think that, I

Carter 34:06

I think that it's a very small pool. I think if it was a larger pool, it'd be easier to get it done. but i suspect that it's a very small thing and

Zain 34:13

and i guess what the frustration in my voice is coming from the fact that this is a guy who has met top tier people everywhere he's gone that list should be fucking 25 impressive people like that that puts me what wrong but like yeah yeah worked with them like

Zain 34:29

didn't run the bank of canada in the bank he went himself i'm just confused like what's going on here like you don't seem as confused as me carter well

Carter 34:38

well i've been in the the room when chiefs of staff are chosen. Well, walk me through it then. The trust level has to be extraordinary. The, uh, I mean, it's almost symbiotic where the person who is being chosen to, to be the, um, to be the, the, the chief

Carter 34:57

chief of staff knows the principle so well inside out that they can think like them. Um,

Carter 35:02

Um, that, and then they have to be in a position where they can execute acute and call and call the plays the way that chris has described right

Carter 35:13

most of the decisions that are going to be made in that prime minister's office are going to be made by the uh chief of staff's office not by the prime minister himself um

Carter 35:22

um that means that it has to be a very unique individual who is different than um you

Carter 35:31

you know different than just about anybody in any role do you feel like you like you

Zain 35:35

you feel like you hit that bar when you're working with redford as as someone who could

Zain 35:39

could pretty much think like Allison in that moment in time?

Carter 35:43

I mean, I did when I was running her campaign.

Carter 35:46

But when she became the premier, I was unable to. I had my relatively short tenure. Can

Zain 35:52

Can I just shift gears for a second here and talk about what Carter's just brought up, Henderson, which is the campaign manager to chief of staff pipeline. It never used to be a thing.

Zain 36:02

And I don't think it should be. Yeah, and Telford was an example who

Zain 36:08

who kind of went through the pipeline. Carter, you're a prime example. Twice, right? Campaign

Zain 36:14

Campaign manager to, but

Zain 36:15

but Henderson, why don't you, because notably, and Chris, I don't want you to reveal things you're not comfortable talking about, but you

Zain 36:21

you were campaign manager Don Ives and you did not end up being Don Ives' chief of staff. And so like, talk to me about your philosophy and belief here. Not to say like, you know, talk about whatever you're comfortable with, but why do you think it's a pipeline that shouldn't exist sort of thing?

SPEAKER_01 36:35

I mean, I think that, and you know, this is something I was really clear about with Don when, when he ran for mayor the first time is that the campaigning

SPEAKER_01 36:42

campaigning and governing are two very different things.

SPEAKER_01 36:46

And some people can switch between those things. I'm like, I'm just not one of those people.

SPEAKER_01 36:50

And, and, you know, we, I was really clear throughout

SPEAKER_01 36:53

throughout the campaign that I wasn't going to, I wasn't going to follow him into that office, uh, win or lose. Sorry. I mean, obviously there was no one was going anywhere, but the, but if he won, I. i so he had that mindset going in um

SPEAKER_01 37:07

um and uh and any other sort of time that i've i've been

SPEAKER_01 37:13

i guess considered for a job like that i've i

SPEAKER_01 37:16

i i just don't have the i mean i got lots of skills um but uh you know the the legislative management component of it over a long period of time you know getting the whole agenda passed

SPEAKER_01 37:29

passed yeah yeah like again when you're campaign manager you have control over everything

SPEAKER_01 37:34

everything which is partly why campaign managers take all the blame when you lose yeah right like uh and and and when while you end up sharing the the

SPEAKER_01 37:45

the the credit when you win and you should share the credit when you win because you're winning with with a team who who you can't do it without obviously but you

SPEAKER_01 37:52

you bear the responsibility of the uh of the campaign but um but you have yeah you have control you can you make all the decisions you're the final word on everything that's not always the case as chief of staff and

SPEAKER_01 38:03

and uh and you have to do a lot more compromise you have to work with an administration you have to work with the political apparatus i mean you

SPEAKER_01 38:09

you know on the provincial and federal level you have to work with the party too and there's just a lot there's a lot of stuff coming at you and you uh and i i don't think that

SPEAKER_01 38:19

know it's an incredibly busy and stressful job in a different way than i think being a campaign manager is the other thing about campaigns and the things the thing i absolutely love about them is

SPEAKER_01 38:28

is that one day they're over yep you

SPEAKER_01 38:30

go to yeah you just this is the day at eight o'clock on this day there's nothing else i can do a

SPEAKER_01 38:37

a bunch of stuff a bunch of checks i have to write on a bunch

SPEAKER_01 38:40

bunch of you know tasks i have to hand out for people that are willing to pack up the office and whatnot but when

SPEAKER_01 38:45

when this when this hits i'm done uh

SPEAKER_01 38:49

uh and that i

SPEAKER_01 38:50

think that there's a like that

SPEAKER_01 38:53

that helps you put up with all the shit that you have to put up with to get to that moment

SPEAKER_01 38:58

chief of staff is like kind of like a never-ending job and that and like most chiefs of staff you know maybe 50 of them just i

SPEAKER_01 39:07

think burn right out um

SPEAKER_01 39:09

um and uh you know most of them don't make a nice quiet exit they either are used to as you know as a sort of to give the the

SPEAKER_01 39:20

the person they're working for uh an extra life uh

SPEAKER_01 39:22

uh or or they you know they have to take the brunt of something that they did and uh you know it it's it's not it as

SPEAKER_01 39:31

as i say it out loud it's not a great job i don't think

SPEAKER_01 39:34

i mean carter you've had like 30 of them so carter

Zain 39:38

carter should the pipeline exist and and frankly to that point like if pierre polyev would have won do you feel like jenny burton would have been his chief of staff i

Carter 39:45

i don't think so i think oh interesting she

Zain 39:47

she would have gone doing i

Carter 39:48

i think jenny number Number one has a business that she would be incredibly successful at running if she. If

Carter 39:55

Yeah. Yeah. She would make so

Carter 39:59

There, there would have been no question in my mind that she would have bailed

Carter 40:02

bailed on the opportunity of being a chief of staff to Pierre. Right.

Carter 40:08

What do you think of the pipeline though?

Carter 40:09

I think the pipeline works. I think the pipeline works. I think that Chris's idea that the campaign ends is a fascinating one. um

Zain 40:18

feel like you can't i mean comparing it to where we were before talking about the conservatives who are refusing to acknowledge that the campaign is over it is kind of ironic yeah

SPEAKER_01 40:25

yeah it is ironic i

Zain 40:27

i see that you see that now now that i see that i

Carter 40:29

i see where i was going and i would like to rectify that but but the the truth of the matter is when you're in government it it feels an awful lot like campaigning and your primary you know how you win over the hyper engaged first that's your caucus right you have to win over the caucus before you can win over anybody else and it's just like constant campaigning constantly convincing people that what you're going to do is the right thing and what they want to do isn't the right thing chris

Zain 40:58

chris finish this off here i want to move to our over under now lightning round i

SPEAKER_01 41:01

i i don't i don't know if i mean i i don't know if it is like uh campaigning because when you have like you you can't get rid of a caucus member.

SPEAKER_01 41:09

You can get rid of a bad manager on a camp, or you can get rid of like a, a

SPEAKER_01 41:12

a team leader on a campaign or a volunteer that does something that, you know, like you can solve problems really quickly and really definitively on campaigns. And

SPEAKER_01 41:20

And there's a ton more compromise on the, you

Zain 41:23

you can be a lot more bloodless. You mean like on a campaign than you, than you can.

Zain 41:27

Yeah. Carter, any thoughts there?

Carter 41:29

Yeah. I mean, that's not wrong.

Carter 41:31

I remember trying to deal with, uh, Robin Campbell nightmare,

Carter 41:35

Absolute nightmare of an individual.

Carter 41:37

Couldn't do anything about him.

Zain 41:40

here we are. Here we are. Here you are on the podcast, Carter. So

Zain 41:43

So guess who won?

Zain 41:44

I did. I think he did. I

Zain 41:46

I think he did.

SPEAKER_01 41:46

did. No, I'm the winner.

SPEAKER_01 41:48

Maybe you could put them on like a, maybe you could have put them on a, like

SPEAKER_01 41:51

like a constitution committee or something like that. We

Carter 41:54

We should have. That would have been major success.

Zain 41:58

you could have used Chris's

Carter 41:58

Chris's help. We didn't have the greatest control of our caucus. I will concede that point. No

Zain 42:02

No kidding. We're going to leave it that segment there. moving on to our over, under, and our lightning round. Chris Henderson, welcome to the over, under, and lightning round. This is where Stephen Carter does not answer questions and which is where I count on you to actually give me honest, fulsome answers to some of these questions. I

SPEAKER_01 42:14

I might Carter it. Yeah, fuck it. Don't fucking

Zain 42:16

fucking Carter it. Just thought it's a white privilege that you're bringing in here. I'm going to fucking start calling you Corey Hogan again. Okay. Henderson, overrated or underrated? What the king will say tomorrow. Record this on Monday night. What the king will say tomorrow from the speech from the throne arguably

Zain 42:35

arguably the one clippable moment or one or two because a lot of it's going to be what you expect to be a speech from the throne unless carney's added a different twist to it and then maybe he's going to do his own version of it that's fundamentally different than what we've heard for

SPEAKER_01 42:46

for the last 50 years but

Zain 42:49

overrated or underrated what the king will say in regards to canada canadian sovereignty etc etc etc i

SPEAKER_01 42:54

i think the speech as a whole overrated

SPEAKER_01 42:56

overrated i think I think the clip that they're going to take underrated

SPEAKER_01 43:05

it's a chance for the government's main point to be delivered by someone with, uh, with gravitas and get, and

SPEAKER_01 43:13

and get it in front of as many Canadians as possible. Probably, probably

SPEAKER_01 43:16

probably more than they could have with that. Even with the campaign.

Zain 43:19

Carter overrated, underrated the King's clip. I'm not calling only King's speech. I'm calling it the King's clip overrated or underrated. heading into japan well

Carter 43:28

i think it's a seven out of ten of course that is

Carter 43:32

and uh i think that if there's uh a lot of upside by having the uh uh

Carter 43:39

the you know the big the the the the big kahuna um reading reading

Carter 43:46

reading the speech um and i think at this particular moment in time it's probably even more important but at the end of the day uh

Carter 43:54

uh a great throne speech speech lasts a day yeah

Carter 43:57

uh great uh shitty last thrown speech lasts a day it's just not something that we look back on uh particularly uh fondly uh you know it's it's they're just they're just another speech carter

Zain 44:10

carter sticking with you here um on a scale of one to ten one being not much concern ten being i'm starting to pull my hair out as a liberal staffer how much concern do you have have that Carney's rhetoric is getting too specific.

Zain 44:26

That Carney, his promises are so like big.

Zain 44:30

big. He talks about how busy they're going to be, how monumental the changes are going to be, how the workflow is going to be faster, more efficient, more productive than anything parliament's ever seen. Almost like he's a, you know, maybe

Zain 44:44

maybe naivete. Maybe he's just got a different way of doing things but how concerned are you right now about carney's promises there's rhetorical promises getting so specific that they're creating kpis and proof points that are now out there that he could be held accountable to on a scale of one to ten well

Carter 45:04

well i'd be having a heart attack if i was chief of staff i mean fortunately there is no one who's the chief of staff um

Carter 45:10

um but it is it is disconcerting that he is making like you want some vagaries um like So that you can have some get-out-of-jail-free cards. And they just don't have any get-out-of-jail-free cards. And that's going to be problematic because their parliamentary process creates an awful lot of jails.

Zain 45:31

Henderson, how concerned are you looking at just

Zain 45:36

just even today, again, we're going to be busy this week. We're going to be busy. It's just like everything's about how much we're going to do, specifically and top line.

Zain 45:45

One to ten, how concerned are you? one not so much ten having a having a carter style heart attack uh

SPEAKER_01 45:51

when i saw that press conference that he did right after the election i think i would have been a two and today i'd probably be a nine i

SPEAKER_01 45:58

i think he'll get that tax cut done by the end of the parliamentary session but i think that like reduce

SPEAKER_01 46:03

reduce or like getting rid of or like making appreciable uh uh progress on interprovincial trade barriers by july 1st is like it's

SPEAKER_01 46:13

it's like i mean it's a great it's great fucking

SPEAKER_01 46:16

fucking great in theory and but i you know like i have no idea how they're going to even begin to do that it's not the same as getting everybody around all

SPEAKER_01 46:26

all the premiers around a table at the canadian war museum like you can sign all the agreements that you're going to fight the u.s and you're going to be one team all you want but like when you actually have to start

SPEAKER_01 46:37

making changes to those interprovincial trade barriers and then like people's lives start to change economically as a result or where people don't are don't know exactly what's going to happen and we might be all moving toward a an extraordinary future but i

SPEAKER_01 46:53

i i just yeah i just don't see it getting done in six weeks with everything else that needs to get done uh that like that needs to get done like that the g7 is like that's a that's a you know there's a week right there gone yeah

SPEAKER_01 47:05

yeah so yeah i think like a nine i think that i think that they're gonna have have to, they're going to have to do some pretty strong communicating in the next couple

SPEAKER_01 47:13

couple of weeks to ratchet down expectations about what success looks like. And I think they're going to, and even, even with something like major

SPEAKER_01 47:21

major oil, uh, like major infrastructure projects, you

Carter 47:25

you know, like, uh, in the, in

SPEAKER_01 47:26

in the speech, the energy minister gave, he talked about, we're going to go from five years to two year approvals. So

SPEAKER_01 47:34

anything is two years away.

SPEAKER_01 47:36

So what are the, like, what is, how are they going to communicate in the movement without progress in a way that's compelling to Canadians while they've got an opposition party that's still, it's

SPEAKER_01 47:46

it's that I think still smells blood in the water, fighting

SPEAKER_01 47:50

fighting them on, on what the agenda should be. Yeah.

Zain 47:54

Yeah. It's, it's, it's an interesting point, especially considering, and Hodgson is, is fascinating too, cause he's taking a page out of that and like, you know, we're going to be a government that is now going to be known for for delivery, not delay, like big promises. And how do they fulfill them? Carter, I'm probably where you are right now, which is having a heart attack that all this soft tissue opens up for the conservatives to hold them accountable with a liberal machine that historically has been super fucking shitty at selling what they're doing. And like, you know, completing the job is only half the job. Selling the job is the other half of the job. And I feel like this is a government that if they continue continue where they have been, at

Zain 48:33

at least in the, in the, in the dying years of the Trudeau government, they might fail on the comms alone. And, and that, that

Zain 48:38

that scares me because there are going to be a lot of openings here.

Carter 48:41

I mean, one of the interesting things I'll be watching is who is the prime minister's DECOM.

Zain 48:46

point. That has not been appointed either. You

Carter 48:48

You know, I mean, there's a. I'm

Zain 48:49

I'm asking, has, I don't think that has, right?

Carter 48:51

right? I don't, I don't believe so. I mean, I've, I've been checking the, um, the GEDS, uh, to see what the office looks like and it's sparse. Yeah.

Carter 49:00

You know, there's kind of the career people who work in the, you know, correspondence units and things like that, but you're not seeing significant shifts of people who are taking, you know, taking over. Like the heavy hitters.

Zain 49:14

hitters. Yeah, taking over

Carter 49:15

over big portfolios, big mandates.

Zain 49:17

Henderson, start with you to finish off our final question.

Zain 49:20

We record today, Monday, May 26th. By June 26th, one month from today. A,

Zain 49:27

does Jenny Byrne still have a job as the ongoing campaign manager for the Conservative Party of Canada, yes or no?

Zain 49:34

I think so, yeah. Carter, does Jenny have a job a month from now?

Carter 49:37

No, of course he's wrong. By the way, all of my predictions from the last two weeks are correct.

SPEAKER_01 49:42

You're going to leave. What about the last two years?

Carter 49:46

very correct. There's just one guy who keeps putting that fucking Jeb Bush thing up.

Carter 49:53

Mark it down on your calendar, okay? OK, Stephen Carter said today, Jeb Bush is the guy.

Carter 50:01

should have been right then, too.

Zain 50:03

We're going to leave it there. That's a wrap on episode 1871 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Velji. With me, as always, Stephen Carter, Chris Henderson, and we shall see you next time.

Transcript