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Annalise: Welcome to The Strategist episode 1865. I'm your host Annalise Klingbeil and with you as always Stephen Carter and Zane Velgey. Good evening gentlemen on E-Day Eve.
Zain: gentlemen
Carter: gentlemen on E
Annalise: Eve. Is that what we're calling this? What is this? Yeah,
Carter: Is that what we're calling
Carter: Yeah, E-Day minus one, I believe, is the technical term. But we don't get too excited about it, you
Carter: you know?
Annalise: The night, the sleep before Election Day, Carter, how are you feeling? I'm feeling... Was the town painted red? Was Kinfed painted red? We
Carter: Was
Carter: Was
Zain: Was
Zain: We had... No, this was Flood the Red Zone. This is not that one. Oh, it's not painted. It wasn't flooded. How many fucking
Carter: We
Carter: No,
Annalise: No, this
Annalise: Oh,
Carter: Oh, it's not painted. It wasn't flooded. How many fucking domains did you cost me? I think we wound up going over our Elections Canada maximum because of the number of domains.
Annalise: Canada maximum because
Zain: domains.
Annalise: Corey's going to love this. I'm sorry to
Carter: Corey's
Carter: I'm
Zain: I'm
Carter: I'm
Zain: I'm sorry to lose this ministerial gig because of this. Yeah, so we
Carter: to
Annalise: to lose
Carter: lose
Carter: Yeah, so we had
Carter: like 130 or 140 volunteers yesterday. We door-knocked more houses than we did the previous big, you know, paint the town, paint Confederate. You guys beat
Zain: You guys beat your own record? We
Carter: We beat our own record. And then we had 180 people out tonight. No, 150 people out today. And 180 people are signed up for tomorrow's aim.
Annalise: These numbers keep shifting, Carter. Carter, how many selfies did people take with you?
Carter: More than 10, less than 20.
Annalise: Impressive.
Carter: Impressive. With Carter? Well,
Annalise: Impressive. With Carter? Well,
SPEAKER_01: Well,
Carter: Corey was there too. I invited Corey in a couple times. And they'd say, we're getting a picture with our favorite podcast hosts, and we'd make a joke about how you weren't there. Wait,
Zain: there. Wait, so you'd randomly knock on doors and people would know about the podcast? Yeah.
Zain: Yeah.
Zain: That's pretty funny. No,
Annalise: No, wait, was this door knockers? Door knockers and also our volunteers. Or people answering their doors? All
Carter: Door knockers and also our volunteers. Or people answering their
Carter: All of it. We
Carter: We have had... People
Annalise: People
Annalise: People answering
Carter: answering their doors recognized you.
Annalise: you. Yeah, and Corey's actually
Carter: Yeah, and Corey's actually called volunteers who are listening to the podcast as he's made the telephone call.
Carter: It's a fucked up world. I think we're in a parallel universe where all of a sudden podcasting is relevant again. It's pretty exciting.
Annalise: So what's the secret to getting so many people out?
Carter: Having a great podcast with Zane Velgey, Stephen Carter, Corey Hogan, Annalise Klingbeil. It's that four people that really, really make it work. uh no
Carter: i don't know i don't know what it is it i think it's the big mo hey nothing
Annalise: think it's
Annalise: nothing nothing to do with cory hogan right oh no it's
Carter: oh no it's yeah cory hogan is like one quarter of it probably yeah
Carter: yeah but it's it's been big did
Annalise: it's it's
Carter: did you guys
Annalise: did you guys not do an episode earlier before about like a lack of volunteers and door knockers we did there
Carter: we did there
Carter: there
Annalise: there
Carter: was there was a time when we could count on like hundreds of volunteers for a campaign um i
Carter: i mean getting 100 volunteers in a city of the size of vancouver shouldn't be that hard yeah it
Zain: yeah
Zain: it
Carter: it
Zain: it
Carter: it has been pulling teeth yeah
Carter: the
Carter: the volunteer i didn't
Annalise: volunteer i didn't listen but it has have you been proven wrong in the past uh 38 however many days it's been less for you guys 30 days i
Carter: i don't think we've been proven wrong i think that we've been proven uh that
Carter: that i think we've proved that there's such a thing as momentum and that when when you have momentum uh people will come out. I don't think we can say that we've solved the issue. Here's how you get lots of volunteers because I know that other campaigns, even successful campaigns, aren't able to draw the number of volunteers that we're drawing. Okay, so
Zain: Okay, so admittedly, I've been the least involved in the campaign, though I do feel like I want to posit a theory. Tell me if you agree with this, Carter.
Zain: This campaign, win or lose tomorrow, and I know you have a prediction to make, so I'll let you go ahead and do that right now.
Carter: No, I'm not going to make any predictions. Corey has forbade me. I'll tee
Zain: Corey has forbade
Zain: tee you up again very shortly, and you will fall into the trap at some point. He's
Carter: very shortly, and you will fall into the
Carter: He's literally forbade me. He's told me not to come in tomorrow if I make a prediction on the podcast.
Zain: Here's my theory. This campaign potentially doesn't redefine but illuminates what actual profile is and what the value of a star candidate actually should be. And more often than not, a star candidate in a contemporary political sense means someone Someone who's got a bit of a profile rarely doesn't mean someone who's got a bit of a profile or
Zain: or even not as a shining star profile per se, but has a deep like group of folks that would do stuff for them. And I think one of the things that we often oversample on and overweight in politics is the person with a massive profile. And we undersample and undervalue the person with maybe slightly one rung less than that, where I put Corey in. But he means a lot to a very dedicated group of people, many of which are potentially podcast listeners and that have come out to show support for him. And I think there's really something fascinating about that, which is, it's really a parallel between like, the celebrity that has no one showing up for them, because everyone else thinks everyone else will show up for them. Right? Because like, they must have their own machine. Like, you know, if you're this, Gregor Robertson must have his own fucking thing. Evan Solomon, like, I'm just pointing these names out, because they're bigger names than Corey's. They just must have their own thing. Like, why wouldn't they?
Carter: and that
Zain: Versus a Corey Hogan who comes in, I think, in part due to the podcast with a group of people who intimately feel like they know him over the course of the last 10 years, feel like they could start mid-sentence talking to him because they've been mid-sentence hearing him for the last number of years in that way. And I
Zain: think there's something really interesting about that. And frankly, from a
Zain: post-election perspective, how do you find more of those people and less of the overall sort of, you know, previously defined star version of candidates, so to speak? Because there is a value with someone who comes with the team, even if that team wasn't even asked to be mobilized until eight days into the campaign.
Annalise: campaign isn't
Annalise: isn't
Zain: isn't that true though am i wrong like i'm at a distance from the campaign carter like for no other reason than working on their shit not because i'm less supportive but like am
Annalise: isn't that true though am i wrong like i'm at a distance from the
SPEAKER_06: the campaign
Zain: am i wrong about like that that could jump in
Annalise: that could jump in because to zane's point i'm fascinated by it and there's like this parasocial relationship with people having an intimate awareness
Annalise: and and they it's like they know cory they've been listening to him and and you two as well in their ears for years in some cases and they feel like they really know them so jump in tell us your thoughts it
Carter: it is weird because it's certainly not celebrity it's a long ways from celebrity and i think that that's what what zane's trying to say is that we're yeah they're not like we're not we're a long ways from from star celebrity but we are uh you
Zain: what zane's
Zain: yeah they're not like we're not we're
Carter: know the number of heads that swivel when cory and i are talking walking down the hall um at the campaign hq uh not because two people are walking down the hall but because it's two people that they know and they know us really well and we're just you know from our point of view we're just two guys trying to um you know make the campaign run and there's
Carter: there's been a a
Carter: huge level of support from the podcast more than more than i think cory or i thought that there would be uh
Carter: uh actually i shouldn't say that cory always knew there was going to be a big support well that's why you monetize
Zain: well that's why you monetize it that's why that's the whole whole plan yeah fucking guy yeah
Carter: the whole whole plan
Carter: yeah fucking
Carter: yeah i mean this is let's be honest though this is the this is our biggest april fool's day joke that we've ever done and uh i think you realize the whole plan was
Zain: honest though
SPEAKER_02: though this
Zain: this
SPEAKER_02: this
Zain: this
SPEAKER_02: this
Zain: this is
SPEAKER_02: is
Zain: is the
SPEAKER_02: the this
Zain: this
Zain: think you realize the whole plan was for me to launch my show on the podcast and then leave but of course that has failed yeah before he ran for office you
Carter: yeah before he ran for office you screwed that up he screwed
Zain: he screwed that up i would say yeah
Carter: say yeah
Carter: yeah it's
Zain: it's been tricky it this isn't a lambert joke i agree yeah yeah it's not real april
Carter: april fool 130 000 plus so far are that's that's exactly what we want to see we should do a fundraiser the packet
Annalise: yeah what what's your like how
Annalise: how can other people and we've got lots to talk about tonight but i'm really interested in this you guys have had a ton of door knockers for the liberals in calgary for cory hogan smashing records having
Annalise: having them out repeatedly when i went out there were several people who were podcast listeners who'd come you know many times to support um cory how
Annalise: how to zane's point about the a celebrity in the rung below, how can other people, like, you
Annalise: you know, also motivate people to come? Like, is the answer to have a podcast and wait a decade? What's the answer? The
Carter: The answer is to have a social network. I
Carter: I mean, one of the things, and I think that we see this the most in our Discord group, this is a community, right?
Carter: right? It is an absolute community that listen to the podcast. And the Discord group is just is another kind of self-evident group within the Discord. We have the podcast listeners,
Carter: listeners, which is a pretty big pool of people across the nation and internationally. And then we have the patrons, which is a smaller subset. And then even a smaller subset of that are the Discord. And you
Carter: you can see a real community in all three of those kind of ponds. And that community, that social network, I
Carter: I have maintained for quite some time as the building block of
Carter: society. society. And so
Carter: so your social network doesn't have to be a podcast, but you have to have lots of different social networks that you can activate if you're going to run for office.
Zain: you have
SPEAKER_02: have
Zain: have to have
SPEAKER_02: have
Zain: I would just jump in and agree with that. I would kind of summarize it and then I'll jump into the details in a second because I agree with a lot of what Carter's put on the table is that it's authenticity
Zain: authenticity
Zain: over time,
Zain: right? Authenticity over time. That time horizon doesn't need to
Annalise: doesn't need to
Zain: to be a decade. In fact, It could be ours.
Zain: ours. And I think that's one of the reasons that the podcast format, just to kind of hit it on podcasts, not the particular, but the format is so fascinating to kind of unearth realness. And it's one of the core reasons why I don't even think we've talked about enough, certainly on our show, which is the hesitation that Kamala Harris had to go on the Joe Rogan podcast was not the fact about Joe Rogan and the audience that he spoke to. I think that was a secondary effect. Right. Like that whole sort of like, oh, he's already in it for Trump. He says crazy shit about vaccines. Like the platforming, I think, was the the B track.
Zain: The A track was I think that campaign was really afraid of Kamala Harris crumbling in hour three.
Annalise: because it's so long hour
Zain: hour one and two you can get by on talking points you really can hour three on that podcast you
Zain: you have to have you you you can't construct walls around you based on talking points and the reason i use that as just an example is that when you stretch that time horizon especially
Zain: especially in cory's case over a podcast in which at some point people know we're not using talking points that the reaction we have to
Zain: to any at some points yeah
Annalise: yeah
Zain: yeah even even if
Annalise: yeah even even if you minute one even if
Zain: if you thought it was scripted in the sense that like you know in the in the early years i would give you the questions and like you'd be able to kind of position your side
Annalise: if
Annalise: you
Zain: it's just so free-flowing that that can never be the case i
Zain: i would use that as like bottle that up and use that an example right like you need to be like hour three rogan ready uh and that's what starts forming community. And like that at scale starts forming community, right? I'm not saying you have to do that over years. Sometimes it's just listening to someone at hour three of a podcast and be like, yep, fucking this person is totally real. Like I get it. They've shed all the issues I've had, or in Corey's case, you know, doing that consistently over many years, or being that person in community where, you know, you're not the person who's preparing for something and always wanting to do something. And I think that's the second point is that as
Zain: as much as I make fun of him for it there
Zain: was no intention to ever transact this podcast for politics right and
Zain: and if there was people would not think april 1st was a joke they'd be like oh like they would like you know that's actually self-harming to like have less time on the clock than every other campaign and then spend four days convincing people in addition to that that's that it's real and that you need their help right
Carter: would
Annalise: would not think april
Carter: april
SPEAKER_02: right
Zain: right like that would that's actually counterproductive to like you don't be be like fuck it i can do this thing in 26 days rather than 38 and i'm going to spend four of
Zain: of those days convincing people it's real but there was no intention to ever transact with it and i think building community for community's sake building your network for network's sake without having an end in mind i think is actually quite important um and there's there's like philosophies on this beyond what carter's talked about around those networks being really important but i think what's more important is that everyone who forms a network in politics often is very clearly like like six months later, running for office, right? And I think it's those- Yeah, it's not authentic. Those who are forming like an authentic sort of community over time, those are the ones that I think get the level of support that you haven't seen. And that's not great advice for someone wanting to transact on their community in the next 24 hours, or frankly, in the next 24 months if they've got a certain political office in mind. Let's use Alberta Provincial as being like,
Annalise: it's those- Yeah, it's not authentic.
Zain: but you can do things that help in that direction.
Annalise: Do you think so, the podcasting format specifically, like it's it's intimate it's long to zane's point it's not scripted it's different like you see um you know tv journalists run for office you see like police chiefs you see people who have profile people watch them on television um i'm thinking of a couple specific examples in calgary but
Annalise: but people people watch them but it's it's short and it's not like do you talk to me about podcasting i think
Zain: to me about podcasting i think it's true like and i'll use my buddy evan as an example so evan solomon's running in toronto For years, Evan was one of the leading political journalists in the country, continued to be until the time he left. But he added a beeline to his like sort of career, which was he was a daily radio show host. And
Zain: And I think what's going to help him in politics and what we've already been conversing about without
Zain: without kind of breaking confidences is that it's the two or three years that he had the Evan Solomon show, which was nothing to do with politics. it was a radio show across the country that was for three hours that had a call-in segment that he had to talk about whatever the issue of of the day was sure he'd lean into politics every chance he could because that was a sweet comfort zone but you can't do that to a gen pop audience who wants to talk about fucking movie theater prices or whatever happened this week in sports and that ability to to kind of fully flex to like offer your opinion to monologue for six seven eight eight minutes because no one is calling because the lines are not lighting up about any given topic. I think that makes you a lot more relatable, especially when you don't have a safety net underneath. There's no talking points underneath. There's no sort of like go-to underneath. And I think, you know, the format definitely
SPEAKER_02: minutes
SPEAKER_01: minutes because no
SPEAKER_02: no
Zain: definitely helps that way. And I think there's another example of someone who obviously
Zain: obviously
Zain: obviously has, you know, political star power. He's definitely a known figure in politics. But I think what's really helping him, frankly,
Zain: frankly, campaign in Toronto Centre, like be a relatable person at the doors is a lot of the um you
Zain: you know is a lot of the radio stuff right is a lot of the stuff that you do that that kind of gets you into the dirt and gets you uh calibrated with uh with people what people are talking about it is very similar to like that that door knocking uh experience yeah
Annalise: carter do you have thoughts on the podcast format because like i think back to when you you called me when zane uh had his baby and you were like hey do you want to come host a few episodes and
Annalise: and i didn't listen at the time and i chatted with several people who did you know did my research and
Annalise: and asked them like what do you like about it this and that and like there was people who were like i listen in the bath like i love it i listen in the bath that's intimate like
SPEAKER_02: like that's it i
Annalise: i i listen while i do dishes i listen while i walk the dog like and and a couple hours every week it's like a regular thing right people are not you
Annalise: you know and
Annalise: and and i guess there's probably a conversation or arguments to be made about the social media influencer and and that sort of thing but the podcast format is so long and it's like it's in your ears Yeah.
Carter: Yeah. And I think it's different. I think it's foundationally different than than like our podcast is different than the podcasts that other people produce. I listen to the scripted podcasts. I have there's a few of them that I listen to, but they don't they don't sound the same. Right. Radio Lab doesn't sound the same as the strategists. The strategist is a conversation between three or four people and or two, three, four people who are in
Carter: the middle. And you're the fourth. You're the next person in. You're a part of the conversation. You are answering the questions. You're a part of it. And you don't have to deal with some of the radio problems. I think that it's interesting when you bring up radio saying I
Carter: think that radio, especially talk radio, has a foundational problem when they go to the go to the callers. it diminishes the host to a degree whereas we don't go to the callers we
SPEAKER_01: has a foundational
SPEAKER_01: we don't go to the callers we
Carter: we don't we don't pander to our audience we don't care about but everybody likes that because they
SPEAKER_01: we don't care about but everybody
Annalise: everybody
Carter: know we're not talking down to them we're
Carter: we're we're including our this is a conversation for us that they happen to be invited to yeah
Carter: i think you're right i
Zain: i think you're right i
Zain: think i think they're two sides of the same coin though right like i think one side where you're kind of having to present your personality i think the similarity between the two is
Zain: is that both of them are unscripted almost fully right
Zain: right because to put out three hours of radio per day you are not scripting that shit in fact i know this because i've guest hosted that show and
SPEAKER_01: hours of radio
Zain: and it's it's very much you wake up at 8 a.m and you're going live at noon and you're working with your producer to put in we're gonna you're gonna you know 10 minutes you're gonna fill on this you're just that's the note you're just gonna fill it um
Zain: um so there is that similarity the
Zain: difference however i agree with you right which is that when you kind of get into the long form you can kind of understand
Zain: understand someone's values their intentions their activity their
Zain: their their sense of purpose all those sort of things which i think the podcast certainly is able to do especially ours when the issues we talk about i think secondary to that though i think the added thing that talk radio especially if i bring this example back to uh to someone like evan is that it gives you the
Zain: the ability to
Zain: to have
Zain: have someone on the other line and have no fucking clue what they're going to tell you yeah
Carter: yeah right
Zain: right especially with an operation like that they've got call screeners but they're not cbc style call screeners and i'm not saying any of this derisively in the sense that you don't actually you have a basic understanding of what they're going to say but they haven't been talking to someone for three four minutes before they go on to cross-country checkup right so they could come at you in in any single way and i think that provides you a different level of political training in addition to what um what a podcast format would provide that's kind of the only sort of point i would make there
Carter: especially with
Annalise: zane do you have any insight too on like the video difference and i feel free to plug your new show here it's the best show it's
Zain: it's the best show it's the that no one's watching it's critically acclaimed no it's
Annalise: no one's watching it's critically acclaimed no it's good it's claimed by one critic
Zain: it's claimed by one critic like
Annalise: critic like that that kind of uh i see it on instagram right like the the videos for your thing on instagram that those they're short snippets compared to you know listening to you in my ear for an hour like do you have insight on that the difference between those yeah
Zain: between those yeah no like i'd say i'd say the podcast format definitely from like a longevity building perspective is is way more useful um i think that's just a totally different thing that i'm trying to do yeah yeah yeah okay
Carter: okay it's got it's It's so interesting because it's one-sided, right?
Zain: it's
Carter: right? It feels like you're talking to me instead of talking with me.
Carter: And that's fine. It's that medium. It fits that medium very well. But it's not the same as this medium.
SPEAKER_01: And that's
Carter: The
Zain: The
Carter: The medium, it turns out, might be the message.
Zain: The medium, it
SPEAKER_02: it
Carter: Deep,
Carter: Deep,
Annalise: Deep, Carter. Never heard that before, ever, as a communications professional. I thought I'd
Carter: Carter. Never
Carter: before,
Carter: ever, as a communications professional.
Carter: I thought I'd bring that up. I don't think most people know what that means
Zain: that up. I don't think most people know what that means when they say it. No one knows what it means. And now we're going to test Carter on it. Yeah. What does that mean? You're
Annalise: say it.
Carter: it.
Annalise: knows what it means. And now
Carter: now
Annalise: now
Annalise: mean? You're like day 30 and you should be tired and not saying smart things. How much is he going to win by? Just saying smart things. I'm
Zain: How much is he going to win by? Just
Carter: I'm
Carter: I'm sorry, who is he? Tell us. Corey Hogan. Mark Carney is going to form something vaguely resembling a government.
Annalise: sorry, who is he?
Annalise: Hogan. Mark
SPEAKER_02: Mark Carney
Zain: Carney
SPEAKER_02: Carney
Annalise: Carney is going to form something vaguely
Annalise: Let's jump into kind of some summarizing the campaign that has been. We can throw some projections, some predictions in here if we want. I want to start with, let's start, let's talk with Jagmeet Singh. Let's talk about him. What do you think, Zane? We'll start with you. What has gone wrong for him and what has gone right for him over the past 36 days?
Zain: Everything has gone right for him. He is going to form the largest majority government.
Zain: Oh, man. Am I the only one with a soft spot for Jagmeet Singh? Yes,
Carter: Yes, you are. In the entire country. Do you know why? Do
Zain: Yes,
Zain: Yes,
Zain: are. In
Zain: the entire country. Do you know why? Do you know why? Why? Tell us. Because I think it reminds me of what I would be like if I were campaigning, except
Carter: Why? Tell us. Because I think it reminds me
SPEAKER_01: me
Zain: he's so much more handsome than I am. what's gone right for him you know in fact let me pick up on that last point he has done this you can't disagree with this he has done this um
Zain: full-heartedly he's done this happy he's done this joyfully like even to his last interview i was just listening to the jespo interview from a couple days ago and he's just like so like he he understands the political reality but he really embraces the campaign that's having the most fun of course the second part of this will not stand wins the election uh but he he definitely is having the most fun and there's something to be said about that um where has it gone wrong for them i mean you could actually go further back to the campaign this is a very you know this
Zain: is a this is a well-treaded point um they could have been official opposition if they had taken down justin trudeau like that was absolutely yeah before the campaign
Annalise: yeah before the campaign yeah um
Zain: um so that's probably where it's gone wrong for them now Now, in this campaign, they have a line for that. It's a kind of convincing line, depending on who you are and how much warm fuzzies you want to feel during the election, which is they knew that they if they did that, Pierre Poliev would be prime minister. OK, but where it's gone wrong for them is really from the basis of not
Zain: not being able to create an argument that that tries to convince a portion of liberals to a portion of their base to stay with them. So
Zain: he should have, however, I think, OK, depending on the results tomorrow, when
Zain: when they realized they were in trouble, they probably should have followed some version of being
Zain: being explicit with people in where they need to vote for the Democrats. Democrats. I think what might come back to bite them in the ass tomorrow, or bite me in the ass if I'm wrong about this, but is that they that their message did get close, but wasn't explicit enough around reelect our incumbents and these other 10 ridings, we have a real shot. And we're being honest with you about what we can do. Because they went all the way to Parliament works when you elect new Democrats, you get shit done. Okay, which new Democrats I think people, I think political people often don't realize how not tuned in the rest of the country is which meant that their local campaigns have to do strategic voting doesn't apply here videos uh for like toronto danforth for example where they're right they don't you can elect a new democrat that there's a chance like the conservatives are not players there so it's
SPEAKER_02: the country is
Annalise: is
Zain: interesting i i feel like they took on the message of we're not going to form government probably at the right time maybe Maybe a week longer, that's fine. But I wish they were more explicit with it. And outside of that, really, events, man, they were sweeped, you know, if they, the only other thing is like, they were swept into events, that perfect storm that helped Mark Carney, they really couldn't do much other than maybe be more explicit at the end. And Jagmeet Singh was happy running throughout. And I think there's something to be said about that. He's probably not
Zain: not going to be the leader of the NDP.
Zain: There's a chance he's no longer going to hold his seat. but there is something to be said about how like just
Carter: but there
Zain: full
Zain: of life chugmeat singh has been this entire campaign uh at the debates on the stump in interviews you
Carter: you have an unhealthy relationship with chugmeat singh i like chugmeat singh i like i like chugmeat singh it's an unhealthy relationship the happy loser is not the uh the tone that you should be aiming for now can we say
Zain: i like chugmeat singh i like i like chugmeat singh it's an unhealthy relationship the
Zain: now can we say this now but tell me this is there a chance that chugmeat singh forms forms the balance of power the next parliament is there a chance carter yes or no no
Carter: no there is no chance yes
Zain: yes there is a chance chance. Carter is wrong. There is a chance. Even if it's a chance.
Carter: Carter is wrong. There
Carter: Even if it's a chance.
Zain: No, no, no. Here's my thinking. Okay. Narrow minority. Let's say the liberal. What's majority, Terry? 172, Carter? You should know this. 73.
Carter: no. Here's
Annalise: 73. Okay.
Zain: Okay. 173. Let's say they get 170. New Democrats have five seats. Bloc Quebecois have 10 seats. Who holds the balance of power? I didn't say who has the next best seats from a progressive vote coalition. Who holds the balance of power? If you're Mark Carney, who are you you making a deal with are you making a deal with jagmeet singh are you making a deal with blanchette you're absolutely making a deal with jagmeet singh
Annalise: 173.
Carter: singh but jagmeet singh is not going to have the balance of power because he's only going to have six fucking seats yeah
Zain: yeah and if let's say the liberals are three seats away who are you making the
Carter: the deal with
Zain: with it
Carter: it doesn't matter who he's making the deal with all that matters is that things that things can't go his way because he has such a fucking small group of people that are going to be working with him and he's going to be be gone he's gonna be history there is no jug so there is there is there is that there okay okay okay okay
Zain: so there is there is there is that there okay okay okay okay the six
Carter: six
Zain: six seats of which jugmeet singh is not one of them okay i acknowledge that but but he still holds the balance of power even when he's gone no
Carter: six seats of which
Carter: i acknowledge
Carter: no he's he's i
Carter: i love it i love it for him
Zain: i love it i love it for him i love it for him so i love this for him that is the perfect ending for jugmeet singh carter what did he
Carter: so i love this for him that
Annalise: is the perfect
Annalise: carter what did he what what did he do right what did he do wrong well
Carter: he what
Zain: what
Carter: what he did wrong was he didn't recognize when he was at the peak of his powers and didn't which i said election which i said which is absolutely right the other thing that he did wrong was stay on for a third election this this is his third election trying to become the the you know something that matters and arguably he did become something that matters but he gave it all away when he signed what was it called it was a cooperation agreement of some sort what do you mean what
Zain: which i said election which i said
Zain: what it was called like the supply and confidence agreement like an actual mechanism of parliament yes yeah and it was it
Carter: agreement like an actual mechanism
Carter: yeah and it was it was This is fucking bullshit. It should never have been signed. He should have kept his power so that he could go issue by issue and try and build something that vaguely resembles what the NDP. He got everything he wanted and still collapsed. He got dental care. He got pharmacare. And he still collapsed because he gave it all to the liberals instead of taking advantage of himself. I think Jagmeet Singh will be remembered well.
Zain: of himself. I think Jagmeet Singh will be remembered well. Jagmeet Singh will
Carter: well.
Carter: Jagmeet Singh will not be remembered well. Oh, I
Zain: Oh, I think he will. No,
Carter: No, he will not.
Zain: not. Oh, I think he will. Carter, what's
Carter: not. Oh, I think
Annalise: think he will. Carter, what's your prediction on what happens to the NDP on election night and what's Singh's next move? They
Carter: what's
Carter: Singh's next
Carter: They lose official party status and Singh loses his seat. And
Annalise: And then he steps down? He
Carter: He has no choice but to step down. He won't even be a member of parliament anymore. That's why he's so fucking happy. He's out.
Zain: This is the question I've actually grappled with the most because I feel confident in where the election might be going. And if we're wrong on that, then we've got, you know, we got to talk about the most massive polling error in history of this country, if not Western democracy, potentially to discuss after Monday. But the
Zain: the NDP vote efficiency is different than the liberal vote efficiency, but it exists in the sense that it's not like on its own natural course. it doesn't just balance out like the rest of the country like the liberal vote does which is like it's just so perfectly placed it has very little in alberta so they lose by large margins and it's got a good point you know you know all the stuff and listeners do the ndp vote efficiency is very much driven by their ground game
Zain: new democrats kind of have like a bat signal that they're like fuck it vote new democrat now and here and if that comes to play then i could be wrong then there's a sense where they get their 12 seats back they do it they still do it with single digit percentages there is a world and i haven't modeled this out like carter kind of models things out but there is a world where the new democrats get between eight to ten percent and can retain party status and get 12 seats you
Annalise: you think that is possible it
Zain: that is possible it has to be it has to be like very efficient it has to be driven by what the ground game is doing but the new democrat ground game is nothing it's not to be laughed at it's like a solid ground game that knows how to do shit it knows how to do shit and maybe 20 to 30 ridings but
Annalise: has to be it has to be like very
Zain: but right now they only need 12 so there is a a case in which if they have a very good night they hit you know
Zain: know 12 for 15 on on maybe 15s or stretch goal they hit 12 for 15 and they've got party status with 8 to 10 percent of the vote i can totally see that being are they
Carter: are they
Annalise: they
Annalise: they gonna have a good night carter no
Carter: no
Carter: no they're not thanks for asking annalise okay
Annalise: let's let's move on what i'll start with you carter what has gone right for uh for pierre polyev uh
Carter: what has gone right for pierre polyev that's
Carter: that's the question airplane has taken off and landed in all the same all the locations that it was supposed to running
Annalise: that's the question airplane
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Zain: let
Carter: let
Zain: let him expand let him expand like
Carter: let him expand let
Carter: like i mean his the campaign has not gone super well for pierre poliev pierre poliev was was uh was out to a huge lead uh the ndp collapsed everything Everything moved to the liberals. Pierre Polyev has historically high conservative support behind him. And he's still sitting in a place where he's not going to be able to form government and is most likely going to be out as the conservative leader. One and done, just like Aaron O'Toole and what's his nuts before him?
Carter: I
Zain: I don't think I don't think he's gone if there's a minority, by the way. I think he sticks around if there's a minority. I think I think he's so I think
Carter: don't
SPEAKER_01: don't think
Carter: I think he's so I think you misunderstand the the vindictiveness of the. No, I don't
Zain: No, I don't misunderstand it. I think there is a case to be made where if they know they're going to lose, they're already planning for the leadership review. And I think that he is going to try his level best to itch and claw and stay, especially if they get something in the thirty nine to forty one. There is something to write home about, which is we were we were hit with the most perfect storm and we got the highest vote percentage since Harper when he formed his majority in 2011. 11. So I think if it's a minority, Polyev actually spends whatever political capital, energy, time, resources, even potential public embarrassment in
Zain: in the coming months to keep his job so
SPEAKER_06: months to
Zain: so that he can have a shot at Carnegie and get in, what, 16 months, 18 months? I
Zain: I don't know.
Annalise: Zane, what do you think has gone right for Pierre Polyev? Carter
Zain: Carter hit the biggest one. They're going to probably hit
Zain: 39%, 38%, which
Zain: which should form them government. But they're running into what progressives run into in alberta which is you you you don't get to win if the right is united and now in this case lack of a better term the left is united in this election right like barring all the nice things i've said about chugmeat singing yeah i was gonna ask you right right right no bar the nice things you said
SPEAKER_06: of
Carter: of a better
SPEAKER_06: better
Carter: singing yeah i was gonna ask you right right right no bar the nice things you said about sing now but
Zain: now but
Zain: but but carter like in the national basis we have about 10 to 12 points to play with like progressives like the left the center like the the the center to the left can throw away, that's
Zain: that's a disparaging word, but can throw away 10% to 15% to the NDP and the Greens, and the left can still be, quote unquote, united under the liberals. And that is still a singular opponent for the conservatives. So 39%, they may be entering a new reality where you need to win head to head, right?
Zain: Especially if that 10% to 12% becomes 7% to 9%. That starts becoming material. I know it doesn't sound like it, but 7% to 9% from 10% to 12% is material, five points here or there. The conservative number was you get 36 and you become government. You get 39 and you get a great majority. Now, if you get 39 to 40, you form opposition in a potential majority against you, which is unheard of. So their biggest sort of success might actually be the opening of a new chapter in federal politics, which is if the NDP lose their party status, We might be entering into like the standard sort of two party party.
Annalise: That starts
SPEAKER_06: starts
Annalise: party. We
Zain: We could be. We could be. Now, I wouldn't go so far as saying like that's definitely where we're headed, because I think if Carney moves, you wouldn't want to
Carter: you wouldn't want to take a position like you did on saying, oh,
Zain: oh, I think the NDP are coming back. I think the NDP are coming back should they lose party status. But the biggest success for them is that they hit that number. The second biggest success is I
Zain: still think they had the most effective and more effective messaging on the economy. Their biggest failure is, of course, not bringing Trump into that motion. We could talk about their biggest failure on Trump and pivoting overall.
Zain: And I think their third biggest success, which could rear its head tomorrow night, they
Zain: have half 53 percent of young men 18 to 34. for and
Zain: if there is a surprise that leads to us having multiple episodes of polling failure uh after this election it could be that it'll be there which which is that they have found that market they have spent time on that market they've introduced policy for that market even though it sounds fucking insane like you know having zins now available at as as over the counters at convenience stores uh they have gone to podcasts for that market uh
Annalise: to
Annalise: it'll be there which which is
Zain: uh they have hit all the right notes for that market they have over invested in that market that 18 to 34 year old dude is
Zain: is probably you
Zain: know in in many cases not going to show up but should at least likely to vote exactly least likely
Carter: at least likely to vote exactly least likely canadian percent yeah
Zain: percent yeah
Carter: yeah
Zain: yeah but should this have any echoes of the trump election in the united states which is a very different type of surprise and we can talk about why than what tomorrow night could look like and why tomorrow's less likely to be a surprise on a national basis for the conservative victory than america was for trump but
Zain: but should there be any element of surprise it's going to be on the backs of these folks which is that they're going to show up in record numbers and you can already see the the bot farms going you can already see the the the right wing uh or even sort of uh alpha male style manosphere podcasts and and tiktok accounts going on this sort of stuff so there is investment and arguably over investment made and that could arguably be a success factor for the conservatives carter you're scoffing
Annalise: conservatives
Carter: conservatives carter
Annalise: carter
Carter: carter
Annalise: carter you're scoffing you think there's no no no possibility yeah
Annalise: yeah
Carter: yeah i mean there
Carter: is no relationship between the the 18 to 34 year old males that answer a survey and those that do not there is no relationship like the the the people who don't vote is just a is a larger number than the people who do vote in the 18 to 34 year old category And especially in the 18 to 34 year old male category, it would require a foundational shift in the makeup of the electorate. And we don't see foundational shifts in the makeup of the electorate very often. So, you know, Trump brought a bit of a foundational shift in the makeup of the electorate. But when you look at his last election versus that of 2020, he still got the same number of votes. What changed was the Democratic collapse, the Democrats' inability to gain as many votes. So I don't see that happening in this particular race. There is no foundational shift in the electorate that is coming to save Pierre Polyev from the devastation of being 39% of
SPEAKER_01: I don't see
SPEAKER_01: happening in this particular
Zain: from the devastation
Zain: 39%
Carter: of the popular vote and coming in as the official opposition.
Zain: I tend to agree with Carter, by the way, just to be clear. I'm reaching a bit, but I'm saying if. And there's a few things we're working against Polyev in that regard, at
Carter: reaching a bit, but I'm
Carter: if.
Zain: at least for the confines of this election. As it relates to, before
Zain: before I get to as it relates to the broader stuff, but one of the biggest one is that we know the advance vote number has been a historic high. And we have a good sense with some level of certainty with at least multiple pollsters talking to those folks on
SPEAKER_06: And we
SPEAKER_01: we
Zain: on a polling basis. We know that those people largely lean liberal and largely lean older. And
Zain: so with that being said, that group that he has won over and over invested in has to oversample and show up at a greater rate on election night to actually make it meaningful for Polyev, even with the what's the slimmest gap. I think Innovate went back to a liberal victory at three or four points.
Zain: I think that's where it's averaging out right now.
Zain: In order to have that be meaningful across all the different regional elections, as I say, again, we're running six elections tomorrow night. We're not we're six elections leading to one outcome.
Zain: There's an Atlantic election, a Quebec election, an Ontario election, a Prairies election, and
SPEAKER_06: a Quebec election,
Zain: and you could even divide Prairies up a bit if you'd like to, and a BC election. They just all happen to be on the same night. That's how I look at tomorrow versus one election,
Annalise: versus one
Zain: election, so to speak, that's going to kind of determine it all across the board. That number would have to outperform in every one of those six mini elections that we're going to have, so to speak, especially with how we're dividing and how different the makeup of certain sort of demographics
Zain: demographics and ridings look like. The other point, though, which I think the broader one should not escape, is that there is something to be said about young people going conservative and that this election, despite the headwinds, keeping a lot of young people conservative. That is an area even 10 years ago, Carter, young people want progressivism, young people want free shit, young people want liberal policies was almost baked in. And the second part of the statement was exactly the same as the second part of the statement here, which is, but they don't show up.
Zain: But at some people, at some point, sorry, I should say, if
Zain: if you keep these people in the tents, three,
Zain: three,
Zain: three, four, five, 10 years later, they will become voters at a greater, more predictable rate. There is something scarier for the broader progressive movement that is emulating itself here, just like it did in the United States, where young people are going conservative. And they're proudly going conservative. They're not shyly going conservative. conservative.
Zain: That
Zain: trend is a W for conservatism. But
Zain: But we're talking about tomorrow night. We're not talking about, you know, silver linings for the conservative campaign and for conservative, the conservative movement, I should say.
Annalise: Good, good point. So Zane, what do you guys think has gone wrong for, for Pierre Polyev? What's the, what are your, your big, you know, like your top three big what's gone wrong? I mean, I don't want to keep treading.
Zain: top three big what's gone wrong? I mean, I don't want to keep treading. I mean, we can keep treading on the same ground over and over that we've talked about. So maybe I'll let Carter go and I'll tell tell you if i disagree with anything top three top three things have gone wrong for for uh
Carter: top three top three things have gone wrong for for uh for pierre polly of number one jagmeet singh absolute complete collapse number two the uh uh the rise of mark carney mark carney's introduction and number three is donald trump and the uh insanity that is the 51st state uh discussion um you know we we placed canada flags on all the cory hogan been signs today uh because and
Zain: number
SPEAKER_01: number one
Zain: one
SPEAKER_01: one
Zain: one
SPEAKER_01: one
Carter: and every house that we went like not every house but way more houses that we went to had a canadian flag hanging uh and a voting liberal because
SPEAKER_02: a voting liberal
Carter: because all of a sudden isn't it yeah
SPEAKER_02: a sudden
Zain: sudden isn't it yeah
SPEAKER_02: yeah
Carter: yeah this is the save canada election and the save canada election the liberals have claimed the flag back um so taking it back the 50 you know donald trump was an absolute devastating moment for Pierre Polyev. Jagmeet Singh's inability to hold 15 percent of the vote has been a complete collapse. The Greens are gone. That collapse has been a calamity for Pierre Polyev.
Annalise: taking it
Carter: And then, of course, Mark Carney. Mark Carney comes in and he's the grown up in the room compared to the sniveling child that is Pierre Polyev. Pierre Polyev's inability to pivot. And I think this goes back, I was thinking about this to the leadership, our good friend Katie Merrifield.
Carter: Well, Corey, my good friend Katie Merrifield.
Zain: Why is she not my friend? What's up with that?
Carter: Because you like Jagmeet Singh and she thinks you're a freak. I do like
Zain: like Jagmeet Singh and
Zain: thinks you're a freak. I do like him. I think I might be one of the last people. He's happy. He's happy.
Carter: might be one of the
Carter: happy. He's happy.
Carter: He
Zain: He reminds me. I would campaign the same way. Yeah.
Carter: He reminds me. I
Carter: Yeah. You would lose. But the point that I'm trying to get across is that, you know, when we talked to Katie after the leadership, we said he'll pivot now. Right.
Carter: And she's like, no, he will not pivot. He
Carter: He does not know how to pivot.
SPEAKER_06: does not
Carter: And he didn't pivot after the leadership. And he didn't pivot when when Mark Carney was elected leader. He didn't pivot when when when when Jagmeet Singh was collapsing. We could have seen a significant shift of orange blue. We didn't see any significant shift of orange blue and went orange red. And that has been the foundation of the collapse of the. And I shouldn't say the collapse. This is not a collapse situation. Fucking thirty nine to forty one percent. This is watching everybody else grow except you. you're stuck at 39 39 should be enough for the victory and he's just not going to get it this
Zain: This is watching everybody
Zain: this is a carter's exactly it there's two things i will quibble with number one um they
Zain: built a campaign that was designed to mobilize not to grow and they would have been right to do that because they wanted to win their way with their own mandate they wanted to effectively they wanted to wrap reform party politics which is what the core of this is with
Annalise: with
Carter: with
Zain: with populism and and and say we we want a mandate for this shit and then go do their thing. They didn't want to pivot because they wanted to win the election they did or the election they plan to. And when I say plan to, like, I wouldn't be exaggerating when Pierre Poliev and Jenny Byrne have been planning for this for beyond the last three, four years. Like, this is, they want to run the campaign of their dreams, their reform party root dreams. They want to finish the work of what kind of brought them into their political lives and what made politics their life. And so they've wrapped right-wing populism of the moment in their Reform Party sort of politics and have tried to shove that down people's throats. And 39% of people to 41, wherever we land tomorrow, will buy it.
Carter: with
Annalise: with
Annalise: We'll buy
Zain: We'll buy it and say we're fine. And a lot of them will not be happy campers when they buy it, right? They will just say like, yeah, okay, that's fine. If that's what the Conservative Party is today, I'm a conservative, I'll buy that. That's what we need. It's better than the other guy. But the problem is, to Carter's point, the other guy is
SPEAKER_05: buy it
Annalise: say we're fine.
Zain: is not the guy that they had, The other thing I'll quibble with is that Carney is definitely number two on that list, Jagmeet Carney. But you have to say Justin Trudeau. Justin Trudeau leaving and the conservatives engineering both those things, the Singh demise to like single digits. Congratulations, they did that. They
Zain: They fucking hit on Jagmeet Singh for months when they thought he was going to be leader of the opposition and had a chance to compete with his orange blue shifts. And number two, they were large. They couldn't keep Justin Trudeau around. They just couldn't. They didn't allow him to stay around. They hit as hard as they could because they only have one tone. They find their enemy. They hit on them extremely aggressively and they did the job. Like, I mean, their W was when they got Justin Trudeau out
Zain: out
Zain: if
Zain: if they wanted to consider that a victory because they were attacking Justin Trudeau and he's gone. But the problem is that Mark Carney came in. And the final thing I'd say is, you know, it's a bit of a meta point, but I'd say the biggest problem with the Pure Polyev campaign that encapsulates all of this is Pure Polyev.
Zain: It wasn't an inability to pivot. It was no desire to pivot. Those are two very different things. if you are someone who's obsessed with running a type of campaign and winning with one type of mandate you are not there to pivot you're fighting every urge to pivot and when you couple that with someone who's in the same boat as you in jenny burn this was not an inability to pivot this was no desire to do so and if they win uh tomorrow night it's going to be all
Zain: credit to them because they would have ran the campaign that they wanted to um and and were unflinching about that even if If there was moments of like, okay, they've kind of massaged a bit, but
Zain: but for
Zain: for the most part, they wanted to win on their own terms and they'll win or lose on that. And that is from a pure political analysis perspective, a failure because they had opportunities to regain that 20 point advantage they had mere
Zain: mere six months ago.
Zain: Even during this campaign, it's not like we'll talk about the Carney campaign, but that shit was not flawless. Far from it in some ways.
Zain: Better in terms of outcomes and effectiveness, but not flawless. And it had opportunity for the conservatives, but they just didn't take advantage of it.
Annalise: Let's get there. Carter, what went right and what went wrong for Mark Carney?
Carter: What went right? Justin Trudeau stepped down. And from that moment on, Mark Carney has been a juggernaut. He has said the right things at the right time. Everything that he's saying, the tragedy that occurred in Vancouver yesterday or last night with the Filipino community. You know, he he forgive me for making this political. I don't mean to make this political as an absolute tragedy, but he gets the opportunity to sound prime ministerial again. And like a leader, just 24 hours before people are casting their final ballots. I mean, this guy's got a horseshoe up his ass. Forgive me for politicizing the the the Filipino tragedy. I did not mean to do that. But the truth of the matter is politics works this way. right uh when allison redford's mother passed it was a tragedy but it gave her the leadership this
Carter: you know this guy has a horseshoe up his ass and that the every time he fucks up a bit um
Carter: um pierre
Carter: polliev comes in and fucks up more or jagmeet singh comes in and fucks up more or or donald trump who hasn't talked about 51st state for the better part of the of the entire election campaign one week to go on the election campaign suddenly starts talking about 51st state it again. You know, all of these things add up to
Carter: to a movement that Mark Carney was able to take advantage of that Justin Trudeau never would have been able to take advantage of it. So, you know, he sounds good. He looks good. He's doing all the right things. And Justin Trudeau getting out of the way was the best thing for that. The worst thing for him is that, you know, it all had to to happen so quickly. I'll be very interested. I think that it's going to be a Mark Carney government. I don't think that there's a lot of people arguing that point. Whether it's majority or minority, it's really up in the air. But I'd be very interested to see what kind of cabinet he gets to build because he hasn't been able to recruit a whole bunch of his candidates, right? You know, Corey Hogan had met Mark Carney for the first time at the Calgary rally, right?
SPEAKER_02: whole bunch of
Carter: right? It's not like Mark Carney and Corey Hogan. You and I
Zain: Hogan. You and I have known him for a bit longer, Mark. Well, we're close
Carter: Well, we're close with Mark. Yeah. We've known Mark for quite some time.
Zain: with Mark.
Carter: But Corey, you just met him for the first time. And so, you
Carter: you know, how do you build a cabinet when
Carter: when you've got a bunch of people that have
Carter: have just come in for the first time and
Carter: and Gregor Robertson and
Carter: and Evan Solomon? element um
Carter: um you
Carter: you know you have to change out a lot of the people who were in that cat or who are in that cabinet right now um and i'm not sure where mark carney's going to be able to find them because it's all happened and all unfolded so quickly quick
Annalise: quick zane what has gone right and what has gone wrong for mark carney i
Zain: mean you can you can you can quibble about what's gone wrong in the sense that it hasn't been perfect but like fuck it who cares if it hasn't been perfect who Who cares if your ads aren't emotive enough and it hasn't resonated and you make a couple of flibs. If tomorrow night ends up with the Mark Carney government, holy
Zain: holy shit, right? Like that is unbelievable given where we've been with the last six months. So I can quibble about small things here or there or the fact that the campaign kind of went on, you
SPEAKER_02: the last
SPEAKER_02: So
SPEAKER_02: So I can quibble
Zain: you know, a bit of a hiatus and didn't necessarily extend the Trump question as aggressively as they needed to. I kind of say that they needed the Trump booster shot provided by Trump. They couldn't mold it themselves. Right. They were just waiting for Trump to show up being like, fuck, we need Trump. And then he shows up. It's like, fuck me. Like, how lucky to Carter's point versus being like, oh, he said it once 30 days ago. Maybe we should make that last. Right.
Zain: Right. Right. Like, you know, not the strongest, but may not matter. Right. Like it could be as an aside. Carter's right about his list. I will say, however, the one thing that stands out
Zain: beyond he gets to use prime ministership, he's boring in a time where we, you know, Polyev is 11 on every issue and we need kind
Zain: kind of that stability and that like human valium equivalent.
Zain: I, you know, all those things, everything else Carter mentioned applies. The one thing I would impress and say, this is my number one, is that in the first, literally in the first hours of becoming prime minister, he...
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Zain: things sounded like and ensured that the conservative attack of just like trudeau would not last that i think that was part of axe attacks that was how he spoke what he spoke about his areas of focus it was a whole package of things that was the savviest most political thing i've seen with the liberals is that every
Carter: he spoke what
Zain: one of us if we were given a time machine would choose oh man the ghost of justin trudeau definitely lives on this election are you fucking kidding me uh
Zain: uh of course it does doesn't matter who the leader is the
Zain: fact that mark carney and team were able to not make that happen and have make force the conservatives to get off that line arguably their most effective attack that this guy's just like justin and most people would say no he's not like that's not believable man outside
SPEAKER_01: their most
SPEAKER_00: most effective
Zain: outside of the liberals is introducing a platform that even Jason Kenney today and the funny clip of Kenney and Rosemary Barton arguing about this. Kenney and I agree on this, that looks very much like a Trudeau-esque platform, despite Carney's like
Zain: presence being different, his areas of focus being different, like all of that.
Zain: But
Zain: man, he was able to make that line not stick. And
Carter: And
Zain: the fact that I think this election could have gone quite differently if he wore that a bit more than he had to in this campaign and so that's a bit of luck sure but it's also a bit of skill and it's a bit of presence and a bit of presentation a bit of everything that not
Carter: the fact
Zain: looking like trudeau huge fucking win huge thing they did right huge sort of downstream effects for what the rest of their campaign looks like because they ran largely unencumbered on the question that was dominant in canadians minds because they didn't have a fucking albatross of justin trudeau that they had to wear that every Every single one of us, if we're being intellectually honest with ourselves, would think, yeah, they're going to have to wear Trudeau. How are they going to do that with that rock as they climb uphill?
Annalise: that they had to
Zain: Turns out,
Annalise: Turns out,
Zain: conservatives weren't good enough at, you know, getting him on it. And in addition to, he
Zain: he
Zain: he kind of pushed it aside. That would be my one and one A. Yeah,
Annalise: Yeah, he just didn't wear it. Okay, Carter, you're yawning a lot. It is E Day Eve. We're going to move into some rapid fire kind of lightning round. I
Carter: lightning round. I took some anti-allergy medication. In this moment of vulnerability,
Annalise: medication. In this moment of vulnerability, Corey Hogan, which ministerial
Zain: Corey Hogan, which ministerial position does he get?
Annalise: get?
Zain: We're
Annalise: going to move into some rapid fire. This luck thing, we've talked about it a lot. You guys have just talked about it more.
Annalise: If you had to pick the one luckiest moment for Carney, like of all these things that you're like, lucky, lucky, lucky, like one, Trump, Zane, Carter, what's yours?
Carter: like
Carter: Trudeau stepping down.
Annalise: Okay. Best dad. Who's had the best dad? He would
Zain: best dad? He would have. Okay, let's be clear. Who had the best dad? Trudeau was forced to step down.
Carter: Who had the best dad? Trudeau was forced to step down.
Carter: I love the concluding ad for Kearney, the letter from the student.
Zain: Jagmeet Singh, the revolving door.
Zain: Too
Carter: slow.
Annalise: slow.
Zain: No, no, no. The last ad was good. There was also a previous Kearney ad.
Annalise: The
Zain: I sent it to the people that made it. Hold on. Let me find it because I liked, frankly, I liked a line in it, which
Zain: which was good. Oh, it was about, this is very narrow. but it was about the Carney ad around trades and they had a line where he looked in the camera and be like, you're going to fucking love this shit and you're going to be too busy building Canada, which I thought was like a really interesting sentiment that I was hoping that they would expand upon and their sort of build message. I really liked that 15 second ad. Then this last one was good. This was not a campaign that really had ads that stuck out. We might, if we're being honest with ourselves, we could come back next week in a conserved wind and be like fuck they knew something we didn't about that golf ad because holy shit but creatively didn't speak to me i wasn't the audience the harper ad creatively didn't speak to me i wasn't the audience i will say one other effective ad that could potentially effective not necessarily like creative award-winning is this most recent conservative ad that's got seniors talking about oh my kid had to move out of country to it was more so like man on the street style to find opportunity like we can't keep this going like it's like almost like they caught seniors in a hallway at a um
Carter: creatively
Annalise: opportunity
SPEAKER_02: opportunity like
Zain: at a retirement home like seriously honestly and i would not be surprised someone's like yeah that's exactly how we shot it it's like looks like it great that
Zain: that shit could be effective man i've seen those sort of like um
Zain: um those
Zain: sort of ads where they're doing testimonial style non-actor style ads be quite effective so we'll see okay
Annalise: okay good good short lightning round answer there's a love it um if you guys could summarize this this short election in one word What's your word, Carter?
Zain: there's a love
Carter: Oh, summarize the election in one word? Yeah, just like the
Annalise: one word? Yeah, just like the last month, 36 days, whatever it's been, in one word. What's your one word?
Carter: Exhausting.
Annalise: Usain?
Carter: Outlook?
Annalise: think that's one. Okay,
Annalise: Okay, where will you be paying the most attention to tomorrow night? Like, what are you watching? Give me your top five ridings that you're watching.
Carter: I'll be watching Carlton.
Annalise: Carlton.
Carter: Oops. Oh, what should you say?
Carter: Oh, I was going to say top five.
Zain: I was going to say top five. I have time zeros.
Carter: have time zeros. Burnaby South, Carlton. So Burnaby South is Jagmeet Singh. Carlton is, of course, Pierre
Annalise: Pierre
Zain: Pierre
Zain: Pierre
Carter: Pierre Polyev. I think Pierre Polyev wins that. And then I'll be watching Quebec in general to see how the Bloc Quebecois does. I have them at 18 seats. I think I'm lower than just about everybody that's picked seats in the pool. And then, of course, Ontario, just to see how many seats. seats, no one specific seats in there. And then there's this little writing, I'm not sure if you're following it. It's
Carter: It's called Calgary Confederation, which we all live in
Annalise: which
Annalise: we all live in it.
Carter: it.
Carter: it. And we're all pretty excited about it.
Annalise: Zane, what are your top five?
Zain: don't know if I have a top five. Okay, so one thing I will be doing, though, is to see, and this is like pure non-scientific bullshit, but please, I encourage others to join me, is compare the 2015, fuck the other elections in between, And 2025 margins of victory in the writings that come in first, which is all the Atlantic promises and look at something like Nova and Sean Frazier and be like, OK, what
SPEAKER_06: promises and look
Zain: what does that look like compared to 2020, 2015? Because we know how the rest of the story unfolds.
Zain: And if they're slimmer, interesting. If they're if they're greater margins of victory,
Zain: even more interesting if you're a fan of the liberals. And so that will be like a region because we won't have a lot to do in the first couple of hours. Right. So what can you do? Be like, OK, a lot of that will go red. Great. In
Zain: the sense that great as in predictable. Look at the margin of victory in some of those areas and see if you want to hype yourself up or start medicating yourself going forward. What else will I be looking at? Let me look at Alberta first. So let me throw two more at you. Confed, obviously.
SPEAKER_01: What else will I be
Zain: Southeast. I'm curious about Sohi. I'm
Zain: really curious about Sohi. Yeah, Edmonton Southeast.
SPEAKER_06: curious about Sohi.
Zain: There
Zain: is like, and then maybe go down to like Burnaby Central's right, Carlton's right.
Zain: Aurora, Richmond Hill. Why?
Annalise: Why?
SPEAKER_06: Why? That
Zain: Why? That one is a GTA writing that is that I
Zain: think will be really interesting to kind of speak to how early will be really interesting to see how wide that liberal margin of victory. Well, obviously, all of this will be known by the end. Right. But like how wide that liberal margin of victory is, the liberals are killing it there.
SPEAKER_02: like how wide that liberal
Zain: You can expect them to get the higher sort of end of the 15 point gap that they have in certain polls and showing on the conservatives. And then there's some three way races like Trump is like literally a three way race. uh funny right liberal conservatives in the bq um
Zain: um and then finally i don't know the seat but um carter mentioned um obviously polyev seat jagmeet singh seat if
Zain: if it's a really good night for the liberals uh blanchette seat is
SPEAKER_06: is also potentially up
Zain: is also potentially up for grabs um in certain polls blanchette is is vulnerable uh and in fact a couple weeks ago uh it was going the other way prior to the debate that blanchette was going to lose his seat he's regained some footing there at least with some some of the local polling that I've heard from folks that are very much attuned to that area. But look for that seat, whatever Blanchette's is, because
Zain: that can also go.
Zain: And you may have a kind of final point to punctuate it,
Zain: not an original point, a point made to me by someone recently, which is we could have an election night where Carney's PM, Polyev has to resign, Singh has to resign, Blanchette has to resign, and the Greens may just make a shift too. And in the first, either that night or in the first couple of months of this new government, we have the only new leader, only person who's coming in 2025 is Mark Carney. Everyone else, Trudeau onward, is gone. The entire, like, evaporation of every other leader could very likely happen if
Annalise: in the first couple
Annalise: The entire, like,
Annalise: if it's
Zain: it's a Carney government. So that's going to be interesting.
Annalise: Carter, how many seats do you think the NDP get?
Zain: Six.
Carter: Six. Okay.
Annalise: The Conservatives?
Carter: The Conservatives, I think it's 135 that I put in my prediction. You
Annalise: put $135, so what do you have the Liberals at?
Carter: $183.
Annalise: And then block is the difference?
Carter: Yeah, block's the difference. I'm pulling that out of my tushy. I can't remember exactly what I wrote down. One green, and yeah,
Carter: I think that was it.
Annalise: Zane, what do you have the NDP at? $12? $15?
Zain: Probably like $1.50. It's a solid minority. They'll be able to bank with the Liberals. I
Zain: think they get their $12. I'm an outlier on this, but I think they get their $12. I think there are 12 or 13. And
Annalise: And what do you have everyone else at? No
Zain: No idea.
Annalise: No idea. No idea. Does
Zain: No idea. Does everything else matter? Does everything else matter? You've
Carter: Does
Annalise: Does
Carter: Does everything else matter? Does everything else matter? You've
Annalise: You've got to
Zain: You've got
Zain: to come up with something, Zane. No,
Carter: to come up with something, Zane. No, no. Majority or minority for the liberals? Oh,
Zain: no. Majority
Zain: Oh, I'm struggling with this. Have you struggled with this? Let's just spend a few minutes on this. Have you actually struggled with this, Carter? No. Going between back and forth?
Carter: struggling with
Carter: you actually struggled
Carter: No, I have not because I am someone who makes choices and sticks to them.
Carter: Okay.
Zain: Okay. OK, so I
SPEAKER_02: I
Zain: I am
SPEAKER_02: am
Zain: am I am feeling I'm feeling I'm feeling at this moment it's majority because the poll tightening will probably not help the NDP. But in some weird world, they're still getting their 12 seats. You said it on
Carter: I am feeling I'm feeling I'm
Annalise: You said it on the record saying majority.
Zain: Yeah, I think it's an NDP majority.
Carter: yeah. So just to clarify, it was 183 for the Libs, 135 for the Conservatives, six for the NDs, 18 for the Bloc Quebecois and one seat for the Greens.
Annalise: One Green. OK. OK.
Annalise: On the record, Carter has said it. What else do I have here? Oh, what's the biggest surprise? What has been the biggest surprise to you this election? The
Carter: biggest surprise? Yeah, like upset. Pierre Poliev put his name on his plane.
Annalise: Yeah, like upset. Pierre Poliev
Annalise: That's been your biggest surprise?
Carter: Everything else has pretty much flowed as expected, hasn't it? That's interesting. Corey Hogan becoming a candidate. That was surprising.
Annalise: interesting.
Zain: interesting.
Annalise: Corey Hogan
Zain: Hogan becoming
Zain: surprising.
Zain: Probably, yeah. Let's
Zain: Let's go with that one. And
Carter: And a star candidate. That's really weird.
Zain: And a star
Zain: star candidate.
Zain: Zane, what's your biggest
Annalise: Zane, what's your biggest surprise?
Zain: Carney's approvals and leadership support numbers fucking going up. I
Zain: know Carter's brought other historical examples. None of them compare to this, I think, because this guy is such an unknown. And he's been facing millions of dollars of attack ads, quite literally. A well-tuned political machine that's been preparing to run. And
Zain: his approvals and support has been going up.
Annalise: Okay. Wild.
Zain: Wild.
Annalise: Big if blunder. Blunder. What has been the biggest blunder of the past 36 days?
Carter: For me, it's Pierre Polyev's inability to pivot, especially in the face of Donald Trump and his 51st state. Pierre Polyev has just never gotten on the right foot with that.
Annalise: The same, biggest blunder?
Carter: biggest blunder?
Zain: blunder?
Carter: blunder?
Zain: blunder?
Zain: Yeah, I'm just not going to use the word inability. He didn't want to.
Carter: Interesting.
Annalise: What else do we have here? What's been your best, like, is there like a best line? do you have like a standout best line of the election i
Carter: i do i do uh cory hogan you could do worse um that has been uh that's worked at the doors for the entire campaign cory
Annalise: i do uh
Annalise: cory hogan you could do worse zane what's yours it's
Carter: what's
Zain: what's yours it's
Zain: the ndp using this term super majority don't give the liberals a super majority what the fuck does that mean it means something but it's it's it's we're not the uk um two things number one uh cory hogan confederation is worth fighting for which
Zain: which has been He's been getting praise from across the country, even from people who have no idea he's running in Calgary Confederation. They just think it's a great line. Including
Annalise: which has been He's been getting praise
Annalise: great line. Including people in Confederation. I was door knocking with people who did not understand it, like who were door knocking for Corey in Confederation.
Zain: who were door knocking
Zain: The other line that is going to go down in the history books is America
Zain: wants to break us so they can own us.
Zain: Good line.
Annalise: Good line. Excellent.
Zain: Excellent.
Zain: Yeah, I think that that that summarized the election. uh
Zain: you can you see carney breaking it up in the final days um
Zain: um great
Zain: great line okay
Zain: okay great line i mean good line yeah
Annalise: great
Annalise: good line yeah yeah uh last one what has been your favorite moment steven sorry i meant boots
Zain: sorry i meant boots not suits sorry uh i got that wrong i meant i
Zain: i meant boots not suits and i will never wear boots on the campaign that's the line sorry sorry carter
Annalise: campaign that's the line sorry
Zain: carter
Annalise: carter last one favorite moment favorite
Carter: My favorite moment, honest to God, was April 1st when we got to put out Corey Hogan is running in Calgary Confederation.
Annalise: we got to put out Corey
Annalise: At what point did you realize it would land on April 1st?
Carter: We were thinking, we were March the 31st. We were absolutely giddy because we were supposed to get it on the 30th, then the 31st. And then we thought it's too good to be on April the 1st. And it came on April the 1st.
Carter: And getting
Annalise: And getting that out before noon on April the 1st. Most
Carter: April the 1st. Most happy moment ever.
Annalise: Zane, what has been your best moment?
Zain: Best
Zain: moment of the campaign?
Zain: I don't know.
SPEAKER_06: know. I
Zain: I
Zain: have nothing. Nothing.
Zain: Nothing.
Zain: Nothing. Now
Annalise: Nothing. Now you're Paul Corrigan throwing his name in the hat. We're literally being threatened
Zain: Corrigan throwing his name in the hat. We're literally being threatened to be annexed by the United States. I don't know if I have a favorite moment of the campaign. It was a campaign of bad campaigns. I'm
Annalise: favorite moment of
Zain: sure there's some local campaigns, Confederation, you know, being an example of. But
Zain: But the campaigns like were not great. So like, you know, you're looking at like these heroic historic moments. Maybe I'll kind of give it to Carney on that on that like day one week one line on on America wants to break us so they can own us. But yeah, other than that, nothing really kind of standing out. Super
Annalise: Super uplifting, motivating answer there, Zane. Okay, guys, that is a wrap on episode 1865 of The Strategist.
Zain: Strategist.
Annalise: I'm your host, Annalise Klingville. With you, as always, Stephen Carter and Zane Velji.
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