Episode 1865: April Fools!

Annalise 0:01

Welcome to The Strategist, episode 1865. I'm your host, Annalise Klingbeil, and with you, as always, Stephen Carter and Zain Velji.

Annalise 0:10

Good evening, gentlemen, on E-Day Eve. Is that what we're calling this? What is this? E

Carter 0:16

E-Day minus one, I believe, is the technical term, but we don't get too excited about it.

Annalise 0:21

The night, the sleep before Election Day. Carter, how are you feeling? I'm feeling... Was the town painted red? Was Kinfed painted red? We had...

Zain 0:30

had... No, this was Flood the Red Zone. This is not that one. Oh, it's not painted.

Zain 0:36

It wasn't flooded. How

Carter 0:37

How many fucking domains did you cost me? I think we wound up going over our Elections Canada maximum because of the number of domains.

Annalise 0:44

Corey's going to love that.

Zain 0:46

I'm sorry to lose this ministerial gig because of this. Yeah, so we

Carter 0:52

had like 130 or 140 volunteers yesterday. we door knocked more houses than we did the previous big you know paint the town paint confederate

Zain 1:00

confederate you guys beat your own record we

Carter 1:01

we beat our own record and then we uh we had 180 people out tonight no 150 people out today and 180 people are signed up for tomorrow's aim these

Annalise 1:12

these numbers keep shifting carter it's carter how many selfies did people take with you uh

Carter 1:16

uh more than 10 less than

Carter 1:23

Corey was there too. I invited Corey in a couple of times and we talked and they'd say, we're getting a picture with our favorite podcast hosts and we'd make a joke about how you weren't there.

Zain 1:32

there. Wait, so you'd randomly knock on doors and people would know about the podcast? Yeah.

Annalise 1:38

No, wait, was this door knockers? Door knockers and also our volunteers. Or people answering their doors? All of it.

Annalise 1:44

People answering their doors recognized you. Yeah. Yeah, and

Carter 1:47

actually called volunteers who are listening to the podcast as he's made the telephone call.

Carter 1:53

This is, it's just, it's a fucked up world. I think we're in a parallel universe where all of a sudden podcasting is relevant again. It's pretty exciting.

Annalise 2:03

So what's the secret to getting so many people out?

Carter 2:06

Having a great podcast, you know, with Zane Velji, Stephen Carter, Corey Hogan, and Annalise Klingbill. um those those that it's that four people that really really make it worse uh no

Carter 2:20

no i don't know i don't know what it is it i

Annalise 2:23

it's the big mo hey nothing nothing to do with cory hogan right oh no it's

Carter 2:27

it's yeah cory hogan is like one quarter of it probably yeah

Carter 2:30

yeah but it's been it's been big it's

Annalise 2:33

it's did you guys not do an episode earlier before about like a lack of volunteers and door knockers we did

Carter 2:44

was there was a time when we could count on like hundreds of volunteers for a campaign um i mean getting 100 volunteers in a city of the size of vancouver shouldn't be that hard yeah it

Carter 2:56

it has been pulling teeth yeah

Annalise 3:02

volunteer i didn't listen but it has have Have you been proven wrong in the past 38, however many days? It's been less for you guys, 30 days. I

Carter 3:10

I don't think we've been proven wrong. I think that we've been proven that there's

Carter 3:14

there's such a thing as momentum and that when you have momentum, people come out. I don't think we can say that we've solved the issue. Here's how you get lots of volunteers because I know that other campaigns, even successful campaigns, aren't able to draw the number of volunteers that we're drawing in Congress.

Zain 3:34

Congress. Okay, so admittedly, I've been the least involved in the campaign, though I do feel like I want a positive theory. Tell me if you agree with this, Carter.

Zain 3:42

This campaign, win or lose tomorrow, and I know you have a prediction to make, so I'll let you go ahead and do that right now. No,

Carter 3:47

No, I'm not going to make any predictions. Okay,

Carter 3:49

Corey has forbade me. I'll

Zain 3:50

I'll tee you up again very shortly, and you will fall into the trap at some point. He's

Carter 3:57

He's literally forbade me. He's told me not to come in tomorrow if I make a prediction on the podcast.

Zain 4:03

Here's my theory. this campaign potentially doesn't redefine, but illuminates what actual profile is and what the value of a star candidate actually should be. And more often than not, a star candidate in a contemporary political sense means someone who's got a bit of a profile. Rarely does it mean someone who's got a bit of a profile, or

Zain 4:26

or even not as a shining star profile per se, but has a deep deep group of folks that would do stuff for them. And I think one of the things that we often oversample on and overweight in politics is the person with a massive profile. And we undersample and undervalue the person with maybe slightly one rung less than that, where I put Corey in. But he means a lot to a very dedicated group of people, many of which are potentially podcast listeners and that have come out to show support for him and i think there's really something fascinating about that which is it's really a parallel between like the celebrity that has no one showing up for them because everyone else thinks everyone else will show up for them right because like they must have their own machine like you know if you're this gregor robertson must have his own fucking thing evan solomon like i'm just pointing these names out because they're bigger names than cory's they just must have their own thing Like, why wouldn't they?

Zain 5:26

Versus a Corey Hogan who comes in, I think, in part due to the podcast with a group of people who intimately feel like they know him over the course of the last 10 years, feel like they could start mid-sentence talking to him because they've been mid-sentence hearing him for the last number of years in that way. And I think there's something really interesting about that. And frankly, from a post

Zain 5:49

post-election perspective, how do you find more of those people and less of the overall sort of, you know, previously defined star version of candidates, so to speak? Because there is a value with someone who comes with the team, even if that team wasn't even asked to be mobilized until eight days into the campaign.

Annalise 6:10

that true though am

Annalise 6:11

wrong like i'm at

Zain 6:11

at a distance from the campaign carter like for no other reason than working on their shit not because i'm less supportive but like am

Zain 6:19

am i wrong about like that that

Annalise 6:21

that could jump in because to zane's point i'm fascinated by it and there's like this parasocial relationship with people having an intimate awareness

Annalise 6:31

awareness and and they it's like they know cory they've been listening to him and and you too as well in their ears for years in some cases and they feel like they really know them so jump in tell us your thoughts it

Carter 6:42

it is weird because it's certainly not celebrity it's a long ways from celebrity and i think that that's what what zane's trying to say is that we're yeah

Zain 6:49

yeah they're not like we're

Carter 6:51

we're not we're a long ways from from star celebrity but we are uh you

Carter 6:56

you know the number of heads that swivel when cory and i are talking walking down the hall um at the campaign hq uh not because two people are walking down the hall but because it's two people that they know and they know us really well and we're just you know from our point of view we're just two guys trying to um you know make the campaign run and there's

Carter 7:20

huge level of support from the podcast more than more than i think cory or i thought that there would be uh

Carter 7:26

uh actually i shouldn't say that cory always knew there was going to be a big support well

Zain 7:30

well that's why you monetize it that's why that's his whole whole plan yeah fucking guy yeah

Carter 7:34

yeah i mean this is let's be honest though this is the this is our biggest april fool's day joke that we've ever done and uh i think you realize

Zain 7:41

realize the whole plan was for me to launch my show on the podcast and then leave but of course that has failed yeah before he ran for office you

Carter 7:48

you screwed that up yeah

Zain 7:49

yeah he screwed that up i would say yeah

Zain 7:52

it's been tricky it this is an elaborate joke i agree yeah yeah it's not real april

Carter 7:56

april fool 130 000 plus so far that's that's exactly what we want to see we should do a fundraiser at the back end carter

Annalise 8:06

carter yeah what what's your like how

Annalise 8:10

how can other people and we've got lots to talk about tonight but i'm really interested in this you guys have had a ton of door knockers for the liberals in calgary for cory hogan smashing records having them out repeatedly when i went out there were several people who were podcast listeners who'd come you know many times to support um cory how

Annalise 8:28

how to zane's point about the celebrity in the rung below how can other people like you

Annalise 8:34

you know also motivate people to come like is is is the answer have a podcast and and wait a decade what's the answer the

Carter 8:41

the act the answer is to have a social network i

Carter 8:44

i mean one of the things and i think that we see this the most in our in our discord group um this is a community right it is an absolute community that listen to the podcast and the discord group is just is another uh

Carter 8:56

uh kind of self-evident group within the Discord. We have the podcast listeners,

Carter 9:00

listeners, which is a pretty big pool of people across the nation and internationally. And then we have the patrons, which is a smaller subset. And then even a smaller subset of that are the Discord. And you

Carter 9:16

you can see a real community in all three of those kind of ponds. And that community, that social network, I

Carter 9:24

I have maintained for quite some time Time is the building block of

Carter 9:27

of society. And so

Carter 9:29

so your social network doesn't have to be a podcast, but you have to have lots of different social networks that you can activate if you're going to run for office.

Zain 9:37

I would just jump in and agree with that. I would kind of summarize it and then I'll jump into the details in a second because I agree with a lot of what Carter's put on the table is that it's authenticity

Zain 9:51

right? Authenticity over time. That time horizon doesn't need to

Zain 9:53

to be a decade. it. In fact, it could be ours.

Zain 9:56

ours. And I think that's one of the reasons that the podcast format, just to kind of hit it on podcasts, not the particular, but the format is so fascinating to kind of unearth realness. And it's one of the core reasons why I don't even think we've talked about enough, certainly on our show, which is the hesitation that Kamala Harris had to go on the Joe Rogan podcast was not the fact about Joe Rogan and the audience that he spoke to. I think that was a secondary effect, right? Like that whole sort of like, oh, he's already in it for Trump. He says crazy shit about vaccines. Like the platforming, I think, was the B track. The

Zain 10:36

The A track was, I think that campaign was really afraid of Kamala Harris crumbling in hour three.

Annalise 10:43

Because it's so long. Hour

Zain 10:44

Hour one and two, you can get by on talking points. You really can. Hour three on that podcast, you

Zain 10:52

you have to have, you can't construct walls around you based on talking points. And the reason I use that as just an example is that when you stretch that time horizon,

Zain 11:05

especially in Corey's case over a podcast in which at some point people know we're not using talking points, that the reaction we have to

Zain 11:11

to any- At some points. yeah even

Annalise 11:13

even even if you made minute one even if

Zain 11:15

if you thought it was scripted in the sense that like you know in the in the early years i would give you the questions and like you'd be able to kind of position your side it's

Zain 11:23

it's just so free-flowing that that can never be the case i

Zain 11:27

i would use that as like bottle that up and use that an example right like you need to be like hour three rogan ready uh and that's what starts forming community and like that at scale starts forming community Right. I'm not saying you have to do that over years. Sometimes it's just listening to someone an hour or three of a podcast and be like, yep, fucking this person is totally real. Like, I get it. They've shed all the the issues I've had or in Corey's case, you know, doing that consistently over many years or being that person in community where, you know, you're not the person who's who's preparing for something and always wanting to do something. And I think that's the second point is that as

Zain 12:01

as much as I make fun of him for it, there

Zain 12:04

there was no intention to ever transact this podcast for politics. Right.

Zain 12:09

And if there was, people would not think April 1st was a joke. They'd be like, oh, like they would like, you know, that's actually self harming to like have less time on the clock than every other campaign and then spend four days convincing people. people in addition to that it's real and that you need their help,

Zain 12:26

right? That's actually counterproductive to be like, fuck it, I can do this thing in 26 days rather than 38 and I'm going to spend four of those days convincing people it's real. But there was no intention to ever transact with it. And I think building community for community's sake, building your network for network's sake without having an end in mind, I think is actually quite important. And there's There's like philosophies on this beyond what Carter's talked about around those networks being really important. But I think what's more important is that everyone who forms a network in politics often is very clearly like six months later running for office. Right. And I think it's not

Zain 13:03

Those who are forming like an authentic sort of community over time. Those are the ones that I think get the get the level of support that you haven't seen. And that's not great advice for someone wanting to transact on their community in the next 24 hours or, frankly, in the next 24 months if they've got a certain political office in mind. Let's use Alberta Provincial as being like, but

Zain 13:21

but you can do things that help in that direction.

Annalise 13:25

Do you think so the podcasting format specifically, like it's intimate, it's long to Zane's point, it's not scripted, it's different. Like you see, you know, TV journalists run for office. You see like police chiefs. You see people who have profiles. People watch them on television. I'm thinking of a couple of specific examples in Calgary. But

Annalise 13:46

But people watch them. But it's short and it's not like – talk to me about podcasting. I

Zain 13:53

I think it's true. Like I'll use my buddy Evan as an example. So Evan Solomon is running in Toronto Centre. For years, Evan was one of the leading political journalists in the country. He continued to be until the time he left, but he added a beeline to his sort of career, which was he was a daily radio show host. And

Zain 14:09

And I think what's going to help him in politics and what we've already been conversing about without

Zain 14:14

without kind of breaking confidences is that it's the two or three years that he had the Evan Solomon show, which was nothing to do with politics. it was a radio show across the country that was for three hours that had a call-in segment that he had to talk about whatever the issue of of the day was sure he'd lean into politics every chance he could because that was a sweet comfort zone but you can't do that to a gen pop audience who wants to talk about fucking movie theater prices or whatever happened this week in sports and that ability to to kind of fully flex to like offer your opinion to monologue for six seven eight eight minutes because no one is calling because the lines are not lighting up about any given topic. I think that makes you a lot more relatable, especially when you don't have a safety net underneath. There's no talking points underneath. There's no sort of like go-to underneath. And I think, you know, the format definitely helps that way. And I think there's another example of someone who obviously has, you know, political star power. He's definitely a known figure in politics. But I think what's really helping him, frankly,

Zain 15:14

frankly, campaign in Toronto Centre, like be a relatable person at the doors is a lot of the um

Zain 15:20

you know is a lot of the radio stuff right is a lot of the stuff that you do that that kind of gets you into the dirt and gets you uh calibrated with uh with people what people are talking about it is very similar to like that that door knocking uh experience yeah

Annalise 15:33

yeah carter do you have thoughts on the podcast format because like i think back to when you you called me when zane uh had his baby and you were like hey do you want to come host a few episodes and

Annalise 15:42

and i didn't listen at the time and i chatted with several people who did you know did my research and

Annalise 15:47

and asked them like what do you like about it this and that and it's like there was people who were like i listen in the bath like i love it i listen in the bath that's intimate like

Zain 15:55

like that's it i

Annalise 15:56

i i listen while i do dishes i listen while i walk the dog like and and a couple hours every week it's like a regular thing right people are not you

Annalise 16:04

and and i guess there's probably a conversation or arguments to be made about the social media influencer and and that sort of thing but the podcast format is so long and it's like it's in your ears yeah

Carter 16:14

yeah Yeah. And I think it's different. I think it's foundationally different than than like our podcast is different than the podcasts that other people produce. I listen to the scripted podcasts I have. There's a few of them that I listen to, but they don't they

Carter 16:28

don't sound the same. Right. Radiolab doesn't sound the same as the strategists. The strategist is a conversation between three or four people and or two, three, four people who are in

Carter 16:41

in the middle. and you're the fourth you're the next person in you're a part of the conversation you are answering the questions you're a part of it and you don't have to deal with some of the radio problems i think that it's interesting when you bring up radio saying i

Carter 16:55

think that radio especially talk radio has a foundational problem when they go to the go to the callers it

Carter 17:00

it diminishes the host to a degree whereas we don't go to the callers we

Carter 17:06

pander to our audience we

Annalise 17:07

we don't give a fuck

Carter 17:09

fuck but everybody likes that because they

Carter 17:12

they know we're not talking down to them we're

Carter 17:14

we're including our this is a conversation for us that they happen to be invited to yeah

Zain 17:20

yeah i think you're right i

Zain 17:22

think i think they're two sides of the same coin though right like i think one side where you're kind of having to present your personality i think the similarity between the two is

Zain 17:30

is that both of them are unscripted almost fully right

Zain 17:33

right because to put out three hours of radio per day you are not scripting that shit in fact i know this because i've guest hosted that show and

Zain 17:40

and it's it's very much you wake up at 8 a.m and you're going live at noon and you're working with your producer to put in we're gonna you're gonna you know 10 minutes you're gonna fill on this you're just that's the note you're just gonna fill it um

Zain 17:51

um so there is that similarity the

Zain 17:54

the difference however i agree with you right which is that when you kind of get into the long form you can kind of understand

Zain 17:59

understand someone's values their intentions their activity their

Zain 18:02

their their sense of purpose all those sort of thing, which I think the podcast certainly is able to do, especially ours and the issues we talk about. I think secondary to that, though, I think the added thing that talk radio, especially if I bring this example back to someone like Evan, is that it gives you the

Zain 18:19

have someone on the other line and have no fucking clue what they're going to tell you.

Zain 18:23

Right. Especially with an operation like that. They've got call screeners, but they're not CBC style call screeners. And I'm not saying any of this derisively in the sense that you don't actually lead you have a basic understanding of what they're going to say but they haven't been talking to someone for three four minutes before they go on to cross-country checkup right so they could come at you in in any single way and i think that provides you a different level of political training in addition to

Zain 18:44

to what um what a podcast format would provide that's kind of the only sort of point i'd make there zane

Annalise 18:49

zane do you have any insight to unlike the video difference and i feel free to plug your new show here it's

Zain 18:55

it's the best show it's the best show that that's no

Annalise 18:57

no one's watching it's critically acclaimed

Annalise 18:58

no it's good it's claimed by

Zain 19:00

by one critic like

Annalise 19:00

like that that kind of uh i see it on instagram right like the the videos for your thing on instagram that those they're short snippets compared to you know listening to you in my ear for an hour like do you have insight on that the difference between yeah

Zain 19:12

yeah no like i'd say i'd say the podcast format definitely from like a longevity building perspective is is way more useful um i think that's just a totally different thing that i'm trying to do yeah yeah yeah okay

Carter 19:24

okay it's got it's it's so interesting because it's one-sided right it feels like you're talking to me instead of talking with me and

Carter 19:32

and that's fine it's it's that medium uh it fits that medium very well but it's not the same as this medium the

Carter 19:41

it turns out might be the message deep

Annalise 19:44

deep carter never heard that before ever as the communications professional i just

Carter 19:50

i thought i'd bring that i

Zain 19:50

i don't think most

Zain 19:51

most people know what that means when they say no one knows

Zain 19:54

now we're gonna test carter on it yeah what does that You're

Annalise 19:56

You're like day 30, and you should be tired and not saying smart things. How much is he going to win by? Just saying smart things. I'm

Annalise 20:02

who is he? Tell

Carter 20:03

Tell us. Corey Hogan.

Carter 20:05

Mark Carney is going

Carter 20:07

something vaguely resembling a government.

Annalise 20:10

Let's jump into kind of some summarizing the campaign that has been. We can throw some projections, some predictions in here if we want. I want to start with, let's start, let's talk with Jagmeet Singh. Let's talk about him. What do you think, Zane, we'll start with you. What has gone wrong for him and what has gone right for him over the past 36 days?

Zain 20:34

Everything has gone right for him. He is going to form the largest majority government.

Zain 20:40

Oh, man. Am I the only one with a soft spot for Jagmeet Singh? Yes,

Zain 20:46

Do you know why? Do you know why? Why? Tell us. Because I think it reminds me of what I would be like if I were campaigning.

Zain 20:53

except he's so much more handsome than i am uh what's gone right for him you know in fact let me pick up on that last point he has done this you can't disagree with this he has done this um

Zain 21:04

um full-heartedly he's done this happy he's done this joyfully like even to his last interview i was just listening to the jespo interview from a couple days ago and he's just like so like he understands the political reality but he really embraces the campaign that's having the most fun Of course, the second part of this will not stand, wins the election. But he definitely is having the most fun. And there's something to be said about that. Where has it gone wrong for them? I mean, you could actually go further back to the campaign. This is a very, you know, this

Zain 21:35

this is a well-treaded point. They could have been official opposition if they had taken down Justin Trudeau. Like, that was absolutely on the table for

Annalise 21:45

for them. Yeah, before the campaign, yeah.

Zain 21:46

So that's probably where it's gone wrong for them. Now, in this campaign, they have a line for that. It's a kind of convincing line, depending on who you are and how much warm fuzzies you want to feel during the election, which is they knew that if they did that, Pierre Poliev would be prime minister. OK. But where it's gone wrong for them is really from the basis of not

Zain 22:08

not being able to create an argument that that tries to convince a portion of liberals to a portion of their base to stay with them. He

Zain 22:19

He should have, however, I think, okay, depending on the results tomorrow, when

Zain 22:24

realized they were in trouble, they probably should have followed some version of being

Zain 22:29

being explicit with people in where they need to vote for new Democrats. I think what might come back to bite them in the ass tomorrow, or bite me in the ass if I'm wrong about this, but is that their message did get close, but wasn't explicit enough around re-elect our incumbents and these other 10 ridings we have a real shot in we're being honest with you about what we can do because they went all the way to parliament works when you elect new democrats you get shit done okay which new democrats i think people i think political people often don't realize how not tuned in the rest of the country is which meant that their local campaigns had to do strategic voting doesn't apply here videos uh for like toronto danforth for for example, where they're right. They don't. You can elect a new Democrat that there's a chance like the conservatives are not players there. So it's

Zain 23:20

it's interesting. I feel like they took on the message of we're not going to form government probably at the right time, maybe a week longer. That's fine. But I wish they were more explicit with it. And outside

Zain 23:32

outside of that, really, events, man, they were sweeped. You know, if they the only other thing is like they were swept into events Hence, that perfect storm that helped Mark Carney. They really couldn't do much other than maybe be more explicit at the end. And Jagmeet Singh was happy running throughout. And I think there's something to be said about that. He's probably not

Zain 23:52

not going to be the leader of the NDP.

Zain 23:54

There's a chance he's no longer going to hold his seat.

Zain 23:57

But there is something to be said about how just

Zain 24:01

full of life Jagmeet Singh has been this entire campaign. At the debates, on the stump, in interviews. You

Carter 24:07

You have an unhealthy relationship with Jagmeet Singh. I

Zain 24:10

like Jagmeet Singh It's an unhealthy relationship The

Carter 24:14

The happy loser is not the The tone that you should be aiming for Can

Zain 24:18

Can we say this now But tell me, is there a chance that Jagmeet Singh Forms the balance, the power, the next part of it Is there a chance, Carter, yes or no No,

Carter 24:26

No, there is no chance Yes,

Zain 24:27

Yes, there is a chance There is a chance No,

Zain 24:32

no, no Here's my thinking Narrow minority What's majority, 172, Carter You should know this more than me. Seventy

Zain 24:41

Okay, 173. Let's say they get 170. New Democrats have five seats. Bloc Quebecois have 10 seats. Who holds the balance of power? I didn't say who has the next best seats from a progressive vote coalition. Who holds the balance of power? If you're Mark Carney, who are you making a deal with? Are you making a deal with Jagmeet Singh or are you making a deal with Blanchette? You're absolutely making a deal with Jagmeet Singh. But Jagmeet Singh is

Carter 25:02

is not going to have the balance of power because he's only going to have six fucking seats. Yeah,

Zain 25:06

Yeah, and if let's say the liberals are three seats away, who are you making the deal with? it

Carter 25:09

it doesn't matter who he's making the deal with all that matters is that things that things can't go his way because he has such a fucking small group of people that are going to be working with him and he's going to be gone he's going to be history there is no jug so there

Zain 25:23

there is there is there is that there okay okay okay okay the six

Zain 25:27

which jagmeet singh is not one of them okay i acknowledge that but they but he still holds the balance of power even when he's gone No,

Zain 25:36

I love it. I love it for him. I love it for him. I love it for him. That is the perfect ending for Jagmeet Singh. Carter,

Annalise 25:43

Carter, what did he, what, what did he do right? What did he do wrong?

Carter 25:47

Well, what he did wrong was he didn't recognize when he was at the peak of his powers and didn't, which I said, which I said, which is absolutely right. The other thing that he did wrong was stay on for a third election. This, this is his third election trying to become the, you know, something that matters. and arguably he did become something that matters but he gave it all away when he signed what was it called it was a cooperation agreement of some sort what do you mean what

Zain 26:10

what it was called like the supply and confidence agreement like an actual mechanism of parliament yes it was fucking

Carter 26:17

fucking bullshit it should never have been signed he should have kept his power so that he could go issue by issue and try and build something that vaguely resembles what the NDP he got everything he wanted and still He still collapsed. He got dental care. He got pharma care. And he still collapsed because he gave it all to the liberals instead of taking advantage of himself.

Zain 26:38

think Jagmeet Singh will be remembered well. Jagmeet

Carter 26:40

Jagmeet Singh will not be remembered well. Oh,

Zain 26:42

Oh, I think he will. No,

Carter 26:43

No, he will not.

Annalise 26:44

think he will. Carter, what's your prediction on what happens to the NDP on election night? And what's Singh's next move? They

Carter 26:51

They lose official party status and Singh loses his seat.

Annalise 26:55

And then he steps down? He

Carter 26:56

He has no choice but to step down. He won't even be a member of parliament anymore. That's why he's so fucking happy. He's out.

Zain 27:04

On the question, this is the question I've actually, I've grappled with the most because I feel confident in where the election might be going. And if we're wrong on that, then we've got, you know, we got to talk about the most massive polling error in history of this country, if not Western democracy, potentially to discuss after Monday. But the NDP vote efficiency is different than the liberal vote efficiency, but it exists in the sense that it's not like on its own natural course. It doesn't just balance out like the rest of the country, like the liberal vote does, which is like, it's just so perfectly placed. It has very little in Alberta, so they lose by large margins and it's got a good, you know, you know all the stuff and listeners do. The NDP vote efficiency is very much driven by their ground game.

Zain 27:44

New Democrats kind of have like a bat signal that they're like, fuck it, vote New Democrat now and here. And if that comes to play, then I could be wrong. Then there's a sense where they get their 12 seats back, they do it they still do it with single digit percentages there is a world and i haven't modeled this out like carter kind of models things out but there is a world where the new democrats get between eight to ten percent and can retain party status and get 12 seats you

Annalise 28:09

that is possible it

Zain 28:09

it has to be it

Annalise 28:10

it has to be like very

Zain 28:10

very efficient it has to be driven by what the ground game is doing but the new democrat ground game is nothing it's not to be laughed at it's like a solid ground game that knows how to do shit it knows how to do shit in maybe 20 to 30 ridings but

Zain 28:23

right now they only need 12 so there is a case in which if they have a very good night they hit you

Zain 28:28

know 12 for 15 on on maybe 15s or stretch goal they hit 12 for 15 and they've got party status with 8 to 10 percent of the vote i can totally see that being are

Annalise 28:37

they going to have a good night carter no

Carter 28:38

no they're not thanks for asking annalise okay

Annalise 28:41

okay let's let's move on what i'll start with you carter what has gone right for uh for pierre poliev uh

Carter 28:48

uh what has gone right for Pierre Poliev?

Carter 28:50

That's the question. The airplane has taken off and landed in all the locations that it was supposed to.

Zain 29:00

Let him expand. I

Carter 29:01

I mean, the campaign has not gone super well for Pierre Poliev. Pierre Poliev was out to a huge lead. The NDP collapsed. Everything moved to the Liberals. Pierre Poliev has historically high conservative support behind him. And he's still sitting in a place where he's not going to be able to form government and is most likely going to be out as the conservative leader. One and done, just like Aaron O'Toole and what's-his-nuts before him.

Zain 29:34

I forget? I don't think he's gone if there's a minority, by the way. I think he sticks around if there's a minority. I think you

Carter 29:39

you misunderstand the vindictiveness of the conservative party. No,

Zain 29:43

I don't misunderstand it. And I think there is a case to be made where if they know they're going to lose, they're already planning for the leadership review. And I think that he is going to try his level best to itch and claw and stay, especially if they get something in the 39 to 41. There is something to write home about, which is we were we were hit with the most perfect storm and we got the highest vote percentage since Harper when he formed his majority in 2011. 11. So I think if it's a minority, Polyev actually spends whatever political capital, energy, time, resources, even potential public embarrassment in

Zain 30:17

in the coming months to keep his job so

Zain 30:19

so that he can have a shot at Carnegie again in what, 16 months, 18 months?

Annalise 30:24

Zane, what do you think has gone right for Pierre Polyev? Carter

Zain 30:27

Carter hit the biggest one. They're going to probably hit

Zain 30:30

39 38 percent uh

Zain 30:32

uh which should form them government but they've they're running into what um progressives uh run into in alberta which is you you you don't get to win if the right is united and now in this case lack of a better term the left is united in this election right like barring all the nice things i've said about jagmeet singh yeah i was gonna ask you right right no bar that nice things

Carter 30:54

things you said about singh but

Zain 30:55

but carter like in the national basis we have about 10 to 12 points to play with like progressives like the left the center like the the center to the left can throw away uh

Zain 31:06

uh you know that's a disparaging word but can throw away 10 to 15 percent to the ndp and the greens and the left can still be quote-unquote united under the liberals and that is still a singular opponent for for the conservatives so 39 this they may be entering a new reality where you need to win head to head right

Zain 31:23

right especially if that that 10 to 12 percent becomes 7 to 9, that

Zain 31:27

starts becoming material. I know it doesn't sound like it, but 7 to 9 from 10 to 12 is material, 5.0 there. The conservative number was you get 36 and you become government. You get 39 and you get a great majority. Now, if you get 39 to 40, you form opposition in a potential majority against you, which is unheard of. So their biggest sort of success might actually be the opening of a new chapter in federal politics, which is if the NDP lose their party status, we might be entering into like the standard sort of two-party system. Two-party,

Zain 32:02

We could be. We could be. Now, I wouldn't go so far as saying like that's definitely where we're headed because I think if Carney moved to the Senate, right? You wouldn't want

Carter 32:09

want to take a position like you did on Singh.

Zain 32:11

Oh, I think the NDP are coming back. I think the NDP are coming back should they lose party status. But the biggest success for them is that they hit that number. The second biggest success is I still think they had the most effective and more effective messaging on the economy. Their biggest failure is, of course, not bringing Trump into that motion. We could talk about their biggest failure on Trump and pivoting overall. And

Zain 32:33

And I think their third biggest success, which could rear its head tomorrow night, they

Zain 32:40

have half 53 percent of young men 18 to 34. for

Zain 32:45

if there is a surprise that leads to us having multiple episodes of polling failure uh after this election it could be that last it'll

Annalise 32:54

it'll be there which which is

Zain 32:55

is that they have found that market they have spent time on that market they've introduced policy for that market even though it sounds fucking insane like you know having zins now available at as as over the counters at convenience stores. They have gone to podcasts for that market.

Zain 33:12

They have hit all the right notes for that market. They have over-invested in that market. That 18 to 34-year-old dude is probably, in many cases, not going to show up. But should this have some- The least likely to vote. Exactly. The least likely

Zain 33:27

to vote. 100%. But should this have any echoes of the Trump election in the United States, which is a very different type of surprise, and we can talk about why, than what tomorrow night could look like and why tomorrow's less likely to be a surprise on a national basis for the conservative victory than America was for Trump.

Zain 33:44

But should there be any element of surprise, it's going to be on the backs of these folks, which is that they're going to show up in record numbers. And you can already see the bot farms going. You can already see the right wing or even sort of alpha male style Manosphere podcasts and TikTok accounts going on this sort of stuff. So there is investment and arguably overinvestment made, and that could arguably be a success factor for the conservatives. It will not. Carter,

Annalise 34:08

Carter, you're scoffing. You think there's no possibility?

Carter 34:14

there is no relationship between the 18 to 34-year-old males that answer a survey and those that do not. There is no relationship. The people who don't vote is a larger number than the people who do vote in the 18 to 34-year-old category. And especially in the 18 to 34 year old male category, it would require a foundational shift in the makeup of the electorate. And we don't see foundational shifts in the makeup of the electorate very often. So, you know, Trump brought a bit of a foundational shift in the makeup of the electorate. But when you look at his last election versus that of 2020, he still got the same number of votes. What changed was the Democratic collapse. the democrats have inability to gain as many votes so i

Carter 35:07

this particular race this is this there is no foundational shift in the electorate that is coming for to save pierre paliev no i

Carter 35:16

the devastation of being 39

Carter 35:19

39 39 of the of the popular vote and coming in as the official opposition i

Zain 35:25

tend to agree with carter by by the way, just to be clear, like I'm trying, I'm reaching a bit, but yeah, I'm saying if, and there's a few things we're working against Polyev in that regard, at

Zain 35:34

at least for the confines of this election. As it relates to, and

Zain 35:38

and before I get to that, as it relates to the broader stuff, but one of the biggest one is that we know the advanced vote number has been a historic high, and

Zain 35:46

and we have a good sense with some level of certainty with at least multiple pollsters talking to those folks on

Zain 35:53

on a polling basis, we know that those people largely lean liberal and largely lean older.

Zain 35:58

And so with that being said, that group that he has won over and overinvested in has to oversample and show up at a greater rate on election night to actually make it meaningful for Polyev, even with the what's the slimmest gap. I think Innovate went back to a liberal victory at three or four points.

Zain 36:17

I think that's where it's averaging out right now. in

Zain 36:19

in order to have that be meaningful across all the different regional elections. As I say again, we're running six elections tomorrow night. We're six elections leading to one outcome,

Zain 36:28

right? There's an Atlantic election, a Quebec election, an Ontario election, a Prairies election,

Zain 36:32

and you could even divide Prairies up a bit if you'd like to, and a BC election. They just all happen to be on the same night. That's how I look at tomorrow versus

Zain 36:39

election, so to speak, that's going to kind of determine it all across the board. word, that number would have to outperform in every one of those six, you know, mini elections that we're going to have, so to speak, especially with how we're dividing and how different the makeup of certain sort of demographics

Zain 36:54

demographics and writings look like. The other point, though, which I think the broader one should not escape, is that there is something to be said about young people going conservative and that this election, despite the headwinds, keeping a lot of young young people, conservative. That is an area, even 10 years ago, Carter, young people want progressivism, young people want free shit, young people want liberal policies was almost baked in. And the second part of the statement was exactly the same as the second part of the statement here, which is, but they don't show up.

Zain 37:24

But at some people, at some point, sorry, I should say, if you keep these people in the tents, three, four, five, 10 years later, they will become voters at a greater, more predictable rate. There is something scarier for the broader progressive movement that is emulating itself here, just like it did in the United States, where young people are going conservative. And they're proudly going conservative. They're not shyly going conservative.

Zain 37:47

That trend is a W for conservatism. But

Zain 37:50

But we're talking about tomorrow night. We're not talking about, you know, silver linings for the conservative campaign and for conservative, the conservative movement, I should say.

Annalise 37:58

Good, good points there. Zain, what do you you guys think has gone wrong for uh for pierre polyev what's the what are your your big you know like your top i mean i don't want to keep treading

Zain 38:07

treading i mean we could keep treading on the same ground over and over that we've talked about so maybe i'll let carter go and i'll tell you if i disagree with anything top three carter carter top three top three things have

Carter 38:18

have gone wrong for for uh for pierre polyev you got one jagmeet singh absolute complete collapse number two the uh uh the rise of Mark Carney, Mark Carney's introduction. And number three is Donald Trump and the insanity that is the 51st state discussion. You know, we placed Canada flags on all the Corey Hogan signs today because and

Carter 38:44

and every house that we went, like not every house, but way more houses that we went to had a Canadian flag hanging and are voting liberal because

Zain 38:53

sudden this has become the same. This

Carter 38:55

This is the Save Canada election And the Save Canada election, the Liberals have claimed the flag back. Taking it back. You know, Donald Trump was an absolute devastating moment for Pierre Polyev. Jagmeet Singh's inability to hold 15 percent of the vote has been a complete collapse. The Greens are gone. That collapse has been a calamity for Pierre Polyev. um you

Carter 39:25

you know and then of course mark carney mark carney comes in and he's the he's the grown-up in the room compared to the the the the sniveling child that is pierre pauliev um pierre pauliev's inability to pivot and i think this goes back i was thinking about this to the leadership our good friend katie mirrorfield well

Carter 39:44

well cory my great good friend katie

Zain 39:46

katie mirrorfield um why is she not not my friend what's what's up with that because

Carter 39:50

because you like jagmeet singh and she thinks you're

Zain 39:55

of the last people he's

Zain 39:58

he reminds me i would campaign the same way yeah

Carter 40:01

yeah you would lose um but the the point that i'm trying to get across is that you know when we talked to katie after the leadership we said he'll pivot now right and

Carter 40:12

and she's like no he will not pivot he

Carter 40:14

he does not know how to pivot and

Carter 40:16

and he didn't pivot after the leadership and he didn't pivot when

Carter 40:19

when when mark carney was elected leader he didn't pivot when when when when uh jagmeet singh was collapsing we could have seen a significant shift of orange blue we didn't see any significant shift of orange blue it went orange red and

Carter 40:32

and that has been the foundation of the collapse of the and i shouldn't say the collapse this is not a collapse situation fucking 39 to 41 percent this is

Carter 40:44

everybody else grow except you you're stuck at 39 39 should be enough for the victory and he's just not going to get it this

Zain 40:52

this is a carter's exactly it there's two things i will quibble with number one um they

Zain 40:57

they built a campaign that was designed to mobilize not to grow and they would have been right to do that because they wanted to win their way with their own mandate they wanted to effectively they wanted to wrap reform party politics which is what the core of this is with

Zain 41:13

with populism and and and say we want a mandate for this shit and then go do their thing they didn't want to pivot because they wanted to win the election they did or the election they plan to and i and when i say plan to like i wouldn't be exaggerating when pierre polievan and jenny burn have been planning for this for beyond the last three four years like this is they want to run the campaign of their dreams their reform party root dreams they want to finished the work of what kind of brought them into their political lives and what made politics their life. And so they've wrapped right-wing populism of the moment in their reform party sort of politics. And they've tried to shove that down people's throats. And 39% of people to 41, wherever we land tomorrow, will buy it.

Zain 41:59

We'll buy it. We're fine. And a lot of them will not be happy campers when they buy it, right? They will just say like, okay, that's fine. If that's what the conservative party is today. I'm a conservative. I'll buy that. That's what we need. It's better than the other guy. But the problem is, to Carter point, the other guy is

Zain 42:13

is not the guy that they had, which is what the other thing I'll quibble with is that Carney is definitely number two on that list, Jagmeet Carney. But you have to say Justin Trudeau. Justin Trudeau leaving and the conservatives engineering both those things, the Singh demise to like single digits. Congratulations. They did that.

Zain 42:31

They fucking hit on Jagmeet Singh for months when they thought he was going to be leader of the opposition and had a chance to compete with his orange blue shifts and number two they were large they couldn't keep justin trudeau around they just couldn't they didn't allow him to stay around they hit as hard as they could because they only have one tone they find their enemy they hit on them extremely aggressively

Zain 42:49

aggressively and they did the job like i mean their w was when they got justin trudeau um

Zain 42:56

if they wanted to consider that a victory because they were attacking justin trudeau and he's gone but the problem is that Mark Carney came in. And the final thing I'd say is, you know, it's a bit of a meta point, but I'd say the biggest problem with the Pure Polyev campaign that encapsulates all of this is Pure Polyev.

Zain 43:12

It wasn't an inability to pivot. It was no desire to pivot. Those are two very different things. If you are someone who's obsessed with running a type of campaign and winning with one type of mandate, you are not there to pivot. You're fighting every urge to And when you couple that with someone who's in the same boat as you in Jenny Byrne, this was not an inability to pivot. This was no desire to do so. And if they win tomorrow night, it's going to be all

Zain 43:39

all credit to them because they ran the campaign that they wanted to and were unflinching about that. even if there was moments of like okay they've kind of massaged a bit um

Zain 43:50

but for the most part they wanted to win on their own terms and they'll win or lose on that and that is from a pure political analysis perspective a failure because they had opportunities to regain that 20 point advantage they had mere

Zain 44:02

mere six months ago even

Zain 44:03

even during this campaign it's not like we'll talk about the carny campaign but that shit was not flawless yeah

Zain 44:08

yeah um far from it in some ways uh

Zain 44:10

uh more better Better in terms of outcomes and effectiveness, but not flawless. And it had opportunity for the Conservatives, but they just didn't take advantage of it.

Annalise 44:18

Let's get there. Carter, what went right and what went wrong for Mark Carney?

Carter 44:24

What went right? Justin Trudeau stepped down. And from that moment on, Mark Carney has been a juggernaut. He has said the right things at the right time. Everything that he's saying, the tragedy that occurred in Vancouver yesterday, or last night with the Filipino community. You know, he, forgive me for making this political. I don't mean to make this political as an absolute tragedy, but he gets the opportunity to sound prime ministerial again and like a leader just 24 hours before people are casting their final ballots. I mean, this guy's got a horseshoe up his ass. Forgive me for politicizing the Filipino tragedy. I did not mean to do that. But the truth of the matter is politics works this way. Right. When Alison Redford's mother passed, it was a tragedy, but it gave her the leadership.

Carter 45:19

This, you know, this guy has a horseshoe up his ass and that every time he fucks up a bit,

Carter 45:27

Pierre Polyev comes in and fucks up more or Jagmeet Singh comes in and fucks up more. Or Donald Trump, who hasn't talked about 51st state for the better part of the entire election campaign, one week to go in the election campaign, suddenly starts talking about 51st state again. All of these things add up to

Carter 45:46

to a movement that Mark Carney was able to take advantage of that Justin Trudeau never would have been able to take advantage of it. so you know he he sounds good he looks good he's doing all the right things um and and justin trudeau getting out of the way was the best thing for that um the worst thing for him is that you know it all had to happen so quickly i'll be very interested i think that it's going to be a mark carney government i don't think that there's a lot of people arguing that point um whether it's majority or minority it's really up in the air but i'm i'd be very interested to see what kind cabinet he gets to build because he hasn't been able to recruit a whole bunch of his of his candidates right you know cory hogan had met uh mark carney for the first time at the calgary rally right

Carter 46:33

right it's not like mark carney and cory you

Zain 46:36

you and i have you and i have known him for a bit longer mark well we're

Carter 46:40

with mark yeah uh we've known mark for quite some time

Carter 46:44

but uh cory just met him for the first time and and so you

Carter 46:47

you know how do you build a cabinet when

Carter 46:50

you've got a bunch of people that have

Carter 46:52

have just come in for the first time and

Carter 46:54

and Gregor Robertson and Evan Solomon.

Carter 46:58

You know, you have to change out a lot of the people who are in that cabinet right now.

Carter 47:05

And I'm not sure where Mark Carney is going to be able to find them because it's all happened and all unfolded so quickly.

Annalise 47:12

Quick, quick, Zane, what has gone right and what has gone wrong for Mark Carney? i

Zain 47:17

mean you can you can you can quibble about what's gone wrong in the sense that it hasn't been perfect but like fuck it who cares if it hasn't been perfect who cares if your ads aren't emotive enough and it hasn't resonated and you make a couple of uh flibs if if if if tomorrow night ends up with the mark carney government holy shit right like that is unbelievable given where we've been uh with the last six months so

Zain 47:40

so i can quibble about small things here or there or the fact that the campaign kind of went on um you know a bit of a a hiatus and and didn't necessarily extend the trump question as aggressively as they needed to i kind of say that they needed the trump booster shot provided by trump they couldn't mold it themselves right they were just waiting for trump to show up being like fuck we need trump and then he shows up it's like fuck me like how lucky to carter's point versus being like oh he said it once 30 days ago Maybe we should make that last. Right. Like, you know, not the strongest, but may not matter. Right. Like it could be as an aside. Carter's right about his list. I will say, however, the one thing that stands out beyond

Zain 48:22

beyond he gets to use prime ministership, he's boring in a time where we, you know, Polyev is 11 on every issue and we need kind of that stability and that like human valium equivalent. equivalent um

Zain 48:33

um i you know all those things everything else carter mentioned applies the one thing i would impress and say this is my number one is that in the first literally in the first hours of um becoming prime minister um he did

Zain 48:48

did things sounded like and ensured that the conservative attack of just like trudeau would not last yeah that i think that was part part of Axe to Tax. That was how he spoke, what he spoke about, his areas of focus. It was a whole package of things. That was the savviest, most political thing I've seen with liberals, is that every

Zain 49:09

every one of us, if we were given a time machine, would choose, oh man, the ghost of Justin Trudeau definitely lives on this election. Are you fucking kidding me?

Zain 49:18

Of course it does. Doesn't matter who the leader is.

Zain 49:21

The fact that Mark Carney and team were able to not make that happen and make force the conservatives to get off that line, arguably their most effective attack that this guy's just like justin and most people would say no he's not like that's not believable man outside

Zain 49:34

outside of the liberals introducing a platform that even jason kenney today and the funny clip of kenny and rosemary barton arguing about this kenny and i agree on this that looks very much like a trudeau-esque platform despite carney's like

Zain 49:47

presence being different his areas of focus being different like all of that

Zain 49:53

but man he was able to make that line not stick and

Zain 49:56

and and the fact that i think this election could have gone quite differently if he wore that a bit more than he had to in this campaign and so that's a bit of luck sure but it's also a bit of skill and it's a bit of presence and a bit of presentation a bit of everything that not

Zain 50:13

not looking like trudeau huge fucking win huge Huge thing they did right. Huge sort of downstream effects for what the rest of their campaign looks like, because they ran largely unencumbered on the question that was dominant in Canadians' minds because they didn't have a fucking albatross of Justin Trudeau that they had to wear that every single one of us, if we're being intellectually honest with ourselves, would think, yeah, they're going to have to wear Trudeau. How are they going to do that with that rock as they climb uphill?

Zain 50:41

conservatives weren't good enough at getting him on it. And in addition to, he kind of pushed it aside. That would be my one or N1A. Yeah,

Annalise 50:49

Yeah, he just didn't wear it. Okay, Carter, you're yawning a lot. It is E-Day Eve. We're going to move into some rapid fire kind of lightning round. I took some anti

Carter 51:01

Oh good, in this moment of vulnerability.

Annalise 51:03

It's not all the hard work that you've been doing. Corey

Zain 51:04

Hogan, which ministerial position does he get?

Annalise 51:10

We're going to move into some rapid fire. This luck thing, we've talked about it a lot. You guys have just talked about it more.

Annalise 51:16

If you had to pick the one luckiest moment for Carney, like of all these things that you're like, lucky, lucky, lucky, like one. Trump, Zane, Carter, what's yours?

Annalise 51:27

Okay, best dad, who's had the best dad? He would

Zain 51:29

would have, okay, let's be clear. Who had the best dad? Trudeau

Zain 51:33

Trudeau would have been forced to step down. i

Carter 51:34

love this uh conclude i love the concluding ad uh for carney the uh letter from the student

Zain 51:41

uh jagmeet singh the revolving door ivy

Zain 51:47

uh no no no the the last the last ad was good there was also a previous carney ad i

Zain 51:54

i sent it to the people that made hold on let me let me find it because i liked frankly

Zain 51:58

frankly i liked a line in it which

Zain 52:00

which was good oh it was about this is very very narrow but it was about the carny ad around trades um that and they had a line where he looked in the camera and be like you're gonna fucking love this shit and you're gonna you're gonna be too busy building canada um which i thought was like a really interesting sentiment that i was hoping that they would expand upon um and their and their sort of build message i really like that 15 second ad then this last one was good um this was not a campaign that really had ads that stuck out we might in in if we're being honest with ourselves we could come back next week and it a conservative wouldn't be like fuck they knew something we didn't about that golf ad because holy shit but creatively didn't speak to me i wasn't the audience the harper ad creatively didn't speak to me i wasn't the audience i will say one other effective ad that could potentially effective not necessarily like creative award-winning is this most recent conservative ad that's got seniors talking about oh my kid had to move out of country to it was more so like man on the street style to find opportunity like we can't keep this going like it's like almost like they caught seniors in a hallway at a um

Zain 53:02

at a retirement home like seriously honestly and i would not be surprised someone's like yeah that's exactly how we shot it it's like looks like it great that

Zain 53:09

that shit could be effective man i've seen those sort of like um

Zain 53:14

those sort of ads where they're doing testimonial style non-actor style ads be quite effective so we'll see okay

Annalise 53:20

okay good good short lightning round answer there zane love it um if If you guys could summarize this short election in one word, what's your word, Carter?

Carter 53:30

Oh, summarize the election in one

Annalise 53:32

one word? Yeah, just like the last month, 36 days, whatever it's been, in one word. What's your one word?

Annalise 53:42

think that's one. Okay,

Annalise 53:43

Okay, where will you be paying the most attention to tomorrow night? Like, what are you watching? Give me your top five ridings that you're watching.

Carter 53:53

I'll be watching Carlton.

Carter 53:56

oops oh what should you say he's

Carter 53:59

he's he's the cardio i should say top five

Zain 54:00

five i was i i've i've time i've time zeros

Carter 54:03

uh burnaby south um carlton so burnaby south is jagmeet singh carlton is of course uh i think

Carter 54:11

think pierre probably have wins that and then i'll be watching uh quebec in general to see how the black quebec law does uh i have them at 18 seats i think i'm lower than just about everybody everybody that's uh picked picked seats on the uh in the in the pool uh and then of course ontario just to see how many seats uh no one specific seats in there and then uh there's this little writing i'm not sure if you're following it it's

Carter 54:37

it's called calgary confederation which we all

Annalise 54:39

all tell us more yeah

Annalise 54:40

yeah tell us more we all live

Carter 54:41

live in it and uh we're all pretty excited about it

Annalise 54:44

uh zane what are your top five i

Zain 54:47

don't know if i have a top five i'll i'll okay so one thing i will be doing though is is to see and this is like pure non-scientific bullshit but please i encourage others to join me is compare the 2015 fuck the other elections in between and 2025 margins of victory in the writings that come in first which is all the atlantic promises and look at something like nova and sean frasier um and be like okay what

Zain 55:13

what does that look like compared to 2020 uh 2015 15 because we know how the rest of the story unfolds and

Zain 55:18

and if they're slimmer interesting if they're if they're greater margins of victory even

Zain 55:25

even more interesting if you're a fan of the liberals and so that will be like a region because we won't have a lot to do in the first couple of hours right yeah so what can you do be like okay a lot of that will go red great in

Zain 55:37

in the sense that great as in predictable look at the margin of victory in some of those areas and see if you want to hype yourself up or start medicating yourself going forward. What else will I be looking at? Let me look at Alberta first, so let me throw two more at you. Convett, obviously.

Zain 55:54

Southeast? I'm curious about Sohi.

Zain 55:56

I'm really curious about Sohi. In Edmonton? Yeah, Edmonton Southeast.

Zain 56:01

There is like, and then maybe go down to, like, Burnaby Central's right, Carlton's right.

Zain 56:08

Aurora? Richmond Hill? Why?

Zain 56:11

That one is a GTA writing that is that

Zain 56:16

I think will be really interesting to kind of speak to how early

Zain 56:21

early will be really interesting to see how wide that liberal margin of victory. Well, obviously, all of this will be known by the end. Right. But like how

Zain 56:27

that liberal margin of victory is, the liberals are killing it there.

Zain 56:31

You can expect them to get the higher sort of end of the 15 point gap that they have in certain polls and joining on the conservatives. And then there's some three-way races, like Trois-Rivières is like literally a three-way race. Funny, right? Liberal conservatives in the BQ.

Zain 56:46

And then finally, I don't know the seat, but Carter mentioned, obviously, Polyev's seat, Jagmeet Singh's seat.

Zain 56:53

If it's a really good night for the liberals, Blanchette's seat is

Zain 56:57

is also potentially up for grabs. In certain polls, Blanchette is vulnerable. vulnerable. And in fact, a couple of weeks ago, it was going the other way prior to the debate that Blanchette was going to lose his seat. He's regained some footing there, at least with some of the local polling that I've heard from folks that are very much attuned to that area. But look for that seat, whatever Blanchette's is, because

Zain 57:20

because that could also go. And

Zain 57:21

And you may have a kind of final point to punctuate it, not

Zain 57:25

not an original point, a point made to me by someone recently, which is we could have an election night where Carney's PM, Polyev has to resign, Singh has to resign, Blanchette has to resign, and the Greens may just make a shift too. And in the first, either that night or in the first couple of months of this new government, we have the only new leader, only person who's come in 2025 is Mark Carney. Everyone else, Trudeau onward, is gone. The entire

Zain 57:52

evaporation of every other leader could very likely happen if

Zain 57:56

it's a Carney government. So that's going to be interesting.

Annalise 57:59

Carter, how many seats do you think the NDP get?

Carter 58:05

The conservatives, I think it's 135 that I put in my prediction.

Annalise 58:09

You put 135. So what do you have the liberals at?

Annalise 58:15

And then Block is the difference?

Carter 58:17

Yeah. Block's the difference. I'm pulling that out of my tushy. I can't remember exactly what I wrote down. One green and yeah,

Carter 58:25

I think that was it.

Annalise 58:27

Zane, what do you have the NDP at? at 12 15 uh

Zain 58:30

uh probably like a buck 50 like it's a solid minority they'll be able to make with the liberals um i think they get their 12 i'm i'm an outlier on this but i think they get their 12 i think they're 12 or 13 and

Annalise 58:44

and what do you have everyone else at no

Zain 58:47

does everything else matter does everything else matter you've got to come a little something no

Carter 58:53

majority or minority for the for the liberals oh

Zain 58:55

oh i'm struggling with this you're actually have you have you struggled with this let's let's just spend a few minutes on this have you actually struggled with this carter no um going between back and forth no

Carter 59:05

no i have not because i'm i am someone who makes choices and sticks to them okay

Zain 59:11

okay so i am

Zain 59:11

am i am feeling i'm feeling i'm feeling at this moment it's majority because the poll tightening will probably not help the ndp but in some weird world uh they're still getting their 12 seats can

Annalise 59:20

can you set it on the record saying Same majority.

Zain 59:22

Yeah, I think it's an NDP majority.

Carter 59:26

just to clarify, it was 183 for the Libs, 135 for the Conservatives, 6 for the NDs, 18 for the Bloc Quebecois, and one seat for the Greens.

Annalise 59:36

One Green. Okay, on

Annalise 59:38

on the record, Carter has said it. What else do I have here? Oh, what's the biggest surprise? What has been the biggest surprise to you this election?

Carter 59:47

The biggest surprise? Yeah,

Carter 59:49

said. Pierre Polyev put his name on his plane.

Annalise 59:53

That's been your biggest surprise? Everything

Carter 59:54

Everything else has pretty much flowed as expected, hasn't it? That's interesting. Corey Hogan becoming a candidate. That was surprising.

Zain 1:00:01

Probably, yeah. Let's go with that one. And

Carter 1:00:03

And a Corey Hogan star candidate. That's really weird.

Annalise 1:00:08

Zane, what's your biggest surprise?

Zain 1:00:10

Carney's approvals and leadership support numbers fucking going up. I know Carter's brought other historical examples. None of them compare to this, I think, because this guy is such an unknown and his leader and he's been facing millions of dollars of attack ads, quite literally, a well-tuned political machine that's been preparing to run. And his approvals and support has been going up.

Annalise 1:00:39

Biggest blunder. What has been the biggest blunder of the past 36 days? uh

Carter 1:00:45

uh it's for me it's it's uh pierre poliev's inability to pivot especially in the face of donald trump and his 51st state uh pierre poliev has just never gotten on the right foot with that

Annalise 1:00:57

zane big of blunder yeah

Zain 1:00:59

yeah i'm just not going to use the word inability he didn't want to

Annalise 1:01:06

uh what else do we have here what's been your best like is there like a best line do you have like a standout best line of the election i

Carter 1:01:16

uh cory hogan you could do worse um that has been uh that's worked at the doors for the entire campaign cory

Annalise 1:01:25

cory hogan you could do worse zane what's yours it's

Zain 1:01:28

it's the ndp using this term super majority don't give the liberals a super majority what the fuck does that mean it would mean something but it's it's it's we're not the uk um two things number one uh cory hogan confederation is worth fighting for which has been getting praise from across the country, even from people who have no idea he's running in Calgary Confederation. They just think it's a great line.

Annalise 1:01:47

line. Including people in Confederation. I was door knocking with people who did not understand it, like who were door knocking for Corey in Confederation.

Zain 1:01:55

The other line that is going to go down in the history books is America wants to break us so they can own us.

Zain 1:02:07

Yeah, I think that that that summarized the election.

Zain 1:02:10

You can see you see Carney breaking it up in the final days.

Annalise 1:02:17

line. Yeah. Yeah. Last one. What has been your favorite moment? Stephen Carter? I meant

Zain 1:02:23

meant boots, not suits. Sorry, I got that wrong. I meant, I

Zain 1:02:26

I meant boots, not suits, and I will never wear boots on the campaign.

Annalise 1:02:32

Carter, last one. Favorite moment?

Carter 1:02:35

Favorite moment, honest to God, was April 1st when we

Annalise 1:02:38

we got to put out Corey

Carter 1:02:39

Corey Hogan is running in Calgary Confederation. At

Annalise 1:02:42

At what point did you realize it would land on April 1st?

Carter 1:02:45

We were thinking, we were March the 31st. We were absolutely giddy because we were supposed to get it on the 30th, then the 31st. And then we thought it's too good to be on April the 1st. And it came on April the 1st. it's true and

Annalise 1:03:03

and getting that out before uh before noon on april the first

Carter 1:03:06

most happy moment ever zane

Annalise 1:03:08

zane what has been your best moment um

Zain 1:03:15

best moment of the campaign

Annalise 1:03:21

nothing now you're paul coriogan throwing

Annalise 1:03:23

his name i mean we're

Zain 1:03:26

literally being threatened to be annexed by the united states i I don't know if I have, like, a favorite moment of the campaign. It was a campaign of bad campaigns.

Zain 1:03:36

I'm sure there's some local campaigns, Confederation, you know, being an example of. But

Zain 1:03:41

But the campaigns, like, were not great. So, like, you know, you're looking at, like, these heroic historic moments. Maybe I'll kind of give it to Carney on that, like, day one, week one line on America wants to break us so they can own us. But yeah, other than that, nothing really kind of standing out. Super

Annalise 1:04:00

Super uplifting, motivating answer there, Zane. Okay, guys, that is a wrap on episode 1865 of The Strategist.

Annalise 1:04:08

I'm your host, Annalise Claymill. With you, as always, Stephen Carter and Zane Velji.

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