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Annalise: Welcome to episode 1863 of The Strategist. I'm your host Annalise Klingbeil and with you as always Stephen Carter and Zane Velji. What is with that grin already Stephen Carter? What's going on?
Carter: Oh, I feel really good. They've changed the positioning of my computer, and I feel like a child at the adult table. It's pretty exciting. What do you mean, they?
Zain: exciting. What do you mean, they? It was one instruction for you to stop pointing up to your nose, and it took you five minutes to follow. They mentioned
Carter: instruction for you to stop pointing
Carter: took you five
Carter: follow. They mentioned my nose hair, which was uncalled for. I got a haircut today and had to have the hair on my ears trimmed, which is always upsetting. I
Carter: felt like those two guys in the golf commercial. Exciting day
Annalise: like those two guys in the golf commercial. Exciting day in the lands of Stephen Carter. Oh,
Carter: Oh, my God. You
Carter: You don't understand the problems I'm facing. Why
Zain: facing. Why didn't they just make the ad at the end, we've got a hard-on for Pierre Polyev? It would combine the Cialis ad that many people think it is alongside the pro-Pierre ad that it actually is Carter. Can you explain to me why they just didn't do two-in-one?
Carter: Yeah, I'm as much at a loss as you are, Zane. Oh, yeah.
Annalise: Zane, before you logged on, I watched Carter's live reaction of watching that ad that is is meant for him like that that's who that is true that ad is for steven carter and he had some some facial expressions he said some stuff it was uh it
Zain: that is true that
Carter: it
Annalise: it was really
Carter: was really a bad ad how
Annalise: a bad
Carter: we're talking about affordability and how our kids can't get ahead and they're talking about paying the down payment i had to pay for stephanie's down payment last year like are you fucking kidding me this is how this is how the cpc sees our world who's down payment
Annalise: who's down payment are you paying for it carter you've got i'm not paying for fuck all i
Carter: i'm not paying for fuck all i got two daughters that need admit it you're housing you're paying
Zain: i
Annalise: i
Zain: i got two
Zain: admit it you're housing you're paying for someone's portion of a down payment admit it right now on the show i'm
Carter: i'm not admit
Zain: it right
Carter: right
Zain: right now
Carter: maybe yours maybe my son's that is correct yeah maybe he does still call you uncle
Zain: maybe my son's that is correct yeah maybe he does still call you uncle steve and we asked him today who taught you how to ride a bike and the answer is technically no one because he doesn't know how to ride a
Carter: bike and
Carter: bike no one because he still doesn't know how to ride but we're gonna try again this year he was a little young he was he was a little young he does remember he remembers the treats
SPEAKER_01: he still
SPEAKER_01: doesn't know
SPEAKER_01: to ride but we're
Zain: we're gonna try again this year he was a
Zain: does remember he remembers the treats he remembers the treats you gave him like a dog after
Zain: after he went exactly
Carter: exactly come
Zain: come to the that's
Zain: that's
Zain: that's
Zain: that's
Annalise: that's how you train didn't it that's how you told him carter seriously
Zain: that's how you train didn't
Annalise: seriously yes
Zain: yes we should expose you're making it sound way worse than it was i don't know i don't know carter brought a bag of gummies and
Carter: you're making it sound way worse than it was i
Zain: and then as my child strided he
Zain: he would get You got gummies. And
Zain: I'm like, Carter, as a guy who does not know how to ride a bike myself, I'm like, is this how it should be? And you're like, definitely. All the whites do it this way. I also tried to get you gummies, but you didn't
Carter: All the whites do it this way. I also tried to get you gummies, but you didn't respond well to the gummies either. I responded very well. I didn't have my own bike.
Annalise: to the gummies either.
Zain: either. I responded very well. I didn't
Annalise: Zane, that's not how you do it. Oh, Carter. No.
Carter: Oh, Carter. No.
Carter: We're going to do way better this year. I've got a whole different plan. I don't think he does. I
Zain: We're going
Zain: don't think he does. I think it's the same plan.
Carter: No, I'm buying one of those little seats that go on your mountain bike like that the kid rides. That sounds like more fun, and that's
Zain: That sounds like more fun, and that's
Zain: that's what I said.
Carter: I'm going to buy that, and he's going to get used to riding with me on that.
Zain: to riding with me on that.
Annalise: So he's not going to learn. Carter's just going to do it for him.
Carter: No, he's going to learn that riding a bike is fun. He doesn't know that yet because he's surrounded by Zane, who doesn't know that riding a bike is fun. I'm going to get one of those big seats for you too, bud. We're going to put you on those seats. This is going to be
Annalise: you on
Zain: on those seats. This is going to be exciting.
Annalise: Take Zane around on the back.
Annalise: Guys, we've got lots to talk about. Busy Easter weekend. before we start though can we do a plug
Carter: Busy Easter weekend. before we start though can we do a plug for cory yeah
Annalise: for cory
Annalise: yeah this whole podcast has been a multi-year
Zain: this whole podcast has been a multi-year plug for cory but fine what's
Carter: -year
Annalise: -year plug
Carter: plug
Annalise: fine what's your latest okay
Zain: latest okay we've been on
Carter: okay
Annalise: we've
Carter: we've been
Annalise: been on the
Carter: on the doors
Annalise: doors what's the latest we need
Carter: latest we need the latest i mean i actually did go to the doors which is tragic because i don't do well with people did you get recognized um
SPEAKER_05: did you get recognized um
Carter: i've
Carter: been recognized a few times but it's never good like
Carter: like this where are you recognized this time carter's been recognized you live in the writing
Annalise: this where are you recognized this
Annalise: this time carter's
Zain: you live in the writing So you're telling me that when you get recognized by your neighbors, it isn't good. Is that what I'm saying? In fairness,
Carter: fairness, it's
Zain: it's a very big riding
Carter: riding thing. That is actually true.
Carter: It goes all the way to Bowness. Yeah. Montgomery, there's some local hoodlums like Annalise. We all live in the riding. Yeah.
SPEAKER_02: like Annalise.
SPEAKER_02: We all live in
Annalise: in the riding.
SPEAKER_02: riding. Yeah.
Annalise: Yeah. Right?
SPEAKER_02: Right?
Carter: Right? Which is pretty great.
Annalise: It's a big riding. Okay, what's your plug? Give us the plug. We need volunteers.
Carter: the plug. We need volunteers. We're in the final pushes, and we're going to do a big day on Saturday. Saturday, we're going to go and door-knock the entire riding on Saturday. We actually set a record for the most door-knocks in Liberal Party history two Saturdays ago when we did the big show, Zane. You remember doing the big show? So we set a record for the number of door-knocks that were done in that day, and we want to break the record this Saturday. And then on Sunday, we need to put door hangers on all the doors of all the known Liberals, and we're going to need to do about 200 chips. bring a buddy day is Sunday and then Monday get out the vote we got a door knock and bring the vote out it's going to be epic so where can
Annalise: so where can people participate how do they sign up they
Carter: participate
Carter: up they can sign up on coryhogan.ca and just go to the volunteer button and Tara will reach out to you within 24 hours okay
Zain: okay I got a counter program there's no fancy
Annalise: program there's no fancy title or name here well
Carter: fancy title
Carter: there was but then you guys poo-pooed it it made me feel bad is
Zain: is
Carter: that not what
Zain: that not what this is
Carter: this is flood the zone zone this is good name
Zain: this is flood
Annalise: is good
Zain: good name or bad name yeah i
Annalise: name or bad name yeah i
Annalise: i told him i didn't like it i
Zain: i i mean he's not is he on any bow river he is on so for definitely for montgomery and for boness flood the zone works because those people are used to that um and sunny side don't forget the sunny side also yeah no it's good flood the zone is that i don't mind it i don't mind it um okay three things number one um the
Carter: used to that um
Carter: and sunny side don't forget the sunny side also yeah no it's good
Zain: most the most door knocks in a single day yeah
Carter: sounds
Carter: like we broke the record We
Zain: broke the record We already talked about this last episode. Sounds like the bar was low. The bar was high. Watch the Jagmeet Singh performance in the debate again. He's a revelation. I don't even know why we have an election next Monday. That guy. Okay. Yeah. Again, second time. I might be voting directly for Jagmeet. I might be writing in Jagmeet Singh.
Annalise: We already talked about this last episode. Sounds like the bar was low. The bar was high.
Carter: Watch the Jagmeet
Carter: Yeah.
Carter: time. I might be voting directly
Zain: Okay. I might have all the options. In Corey
Carter: Corey Hogan's writing. He might be writing. In that title, Corey Hogan. Jagmeet
Zain: He might be writing. In that title, Corey Hogan.
Zain: Jagmeet Singh. Okay. That's how good I think he was at the debate, ruining Pierre Polyev's clips. Thing number three. um
Carter: Singh. Okay.
Zain: carter can you uh for the broader audience not the patron audience um on the record let everyone know that cory hogan is going to win calgary confederation please go he's
Carter: he's doing very well things things there's lots of positive uh no it you know what no i'm not doing it i'm not doing it zane do it it's it looks really good he's worked his ass off what happens to your confidence you
Zain: positive uh
SPEAKER_01: i'm
Zain: i'm not doing it zane do
Zain: his ass off what happens to your confidence you have you usually
Carter: usually go 400 volunteers do it epic
Annalise: epic numbers
Carter: numbers
Annalise: numbers of door
Carter: numbers of door knocks carter did you Did you get
Zain: door
Zain: knocks
Annalise: carter did you Did you get in trouble?
Carter: Corey gave
Carter: gave me a stern talking to.
Annalise: You got in trouble for your remarks on the last episode. Corey was very
Carter: in trouble for
Carter: Corey was very angry.
Carter: I did not expect that. You definitely jinxed
SPEAKER_02: did not expect that. You definitely
Zain: definitely jinxed
SPEAKER_02: jinxed
Zain: jinxed it.
Annalise: Everyone go to CoreyHogan.ca, volunteer this week. And
Zain: And
Annalise: And
Zain: And we'll put it in the clip from the Patreon episode. That's good. So
Annalise: what's your prediction, Stephen Carter?
Carter: Right now, I think that we're in very good shape and likely to win.
Carter: Okay.
Annalise: Okay. On the record. We
Carter: really need some help because apparently I jinxed it and if we lose, now it's all my fault.
SPEAKER_02: really
Annalise: really need
SPEAKER_02: need
Zain: need
Carter: makes me very happy.
Annalise: me very
Annalise: Okay, good plug, guys. We've got some new ads to talk about. Like Corey Hogan ads?
Carter: Like Corey Hogan ads?
Annalise: You can bring that up. You can plug Corey as much as you want in this episode, Stephen Carter, but I want to talk about this golf ad. Are
SPEAKER_01: want to talk
SPEAKER_00: talk
SPEAKER_01: talk
SPEAKER_00: talk
SPEAKER_01: talk about this
SPEAKER_01: Are we really going to give these clowns a fourth term? I'm voting conservative.
SPEAKER_01: There you go. Yeah, for a change. um
Annalise: um
Annalise: um zane i know you've got some thoughts carter watched it for the first time like five minutes ago well
Zain: minutes ago well
Annalise: okay let's start there carter you just watched it what's the
Zain: let's start there carter you just watched it what's the last time an ad has been made for a white dude in
Annalise: for a white dude in
Zain: the final 10 days of an election what
Zain: what
Annalise: what
Zain: what the
Annalise: the carter final
Annalise: final days no mention of polyev good at bad ads golf down payments what did you think i
Carter: i honestly thought it was one of the worst political ads i've ever seen uh
Carter: uh i don't know who the demographic of that ad is but
SPEAKER_01: uh
Annalise: uh
SPEAKER_01: uh i
Carter: but white
SPEAKER_01: but white
Carter: white white golfing, first of all, totally get that. I mean, I, I, my brother is a, is a golfer and he's, he's white. Um, and, and, uh, he might, he might find that interesting, but the down payment for my daughter, uh, was it Stephanie? Stephanie was, I had to pay my daughter's down payment. I
Carter: don't know people who can do that. I don't know people who pay for people's down payments. Um, sitting at the golf course, bragging about it to their friends. I had to pay Stephanie's down payment how's your son doing sounds like he's in the trash can you know like it was it was a absolutely horrific ad um that you
Carter: know
Carter: didn't seem to have any direction and finished off with the most forced for a change i think i've ever seen in my life it was an
Carter: ad without a target audience an ad without a primary message um are you going to elect those clowns again like is this Is anybody going to be swayed by calling Mark Carney and the Liberals clowns? Or is this just an absolute button down, the absolute bare bones of the bare minimum for the actual group? I mean, it feels to me like they were just trying to solidify
Carter: their base. Am I wrong, Zane? Or am I totally right, as always? I
Zain: I want to do a full hour on this ad. ad uh
Zain: mainly okay so there's this have you guys seen this online where i don't know if it's real but i suspect it is because it was on twitter um
Zain: um and oh the casting
Annalise: oh the casting ad the casting thing the
Zain: the casting call do you think that's
Annalise: call do you think that's real i
Zain: i do think it is real because both the pay seems about right which is shockingly low people are are often surprised that these ads that often get tens of thousands hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars and the rumor on this ad not even the rumor today's the 20th we've seen this ad if you're watching the leafs game yesterday yesterday, or
Zain: or anywhere across the country, you've seen this ad. And of course, if you've been on social media, you've seen this ad.
Zain: Those spots at the Leafs game were millions of dollars. People are often shocked that these ads don't pay these actors more than what was offered in this in this casting call, which, you know, I'm being sarcastic. I don't know if it is true, but it was a grant for each for each of the two actors, so to speak. So I'm of two minds. My first mind is exactly where carter is what the fuck is this is this uh you know many people have said is this a is this a drug commercial is this a cialis ad etc um and that's hacky but it's also true it's got the same vibe same energy same two dudes who could easily be talking about how they can't get it up this weekend like it just like literally has that level of um you know lack of lack of nuance
Zain: the other part of me is like fuck it carter like what if this is the play they
Zain: know they're missing this demo which is by the way like alarm bells like would be fucking alarm bells but let's just say they're are they missing
Annalise: are they missing this demo i don't
Zain: don't know okay let's
Annalise: let's just let's just like follow play this out yeah play it out right
Zain: play this out yeah
Zain: right 255 plus i'm looking i'm looking at the ad right now let's go 60 plus year old dudes white um
Zain: affluent thanks because i'm 55
Carter: affluent thanks because i'm 55 and i felt a little young so 55 plus affluent
Zain: a little young so 55 plus affluent white um you would think it's a lock demo right like naturally exists within the a conservative cohort and if it doesn't exist within your coalition you're totally fucked what
Zain: if this is the second part of my statement that
Zain: they're totally fucked and
Zain: and that they know that they're totally fucked they're acknowledging that they're totally fucked and that this core demo carter you don't have to guess who the demo is annalee said it to you she's right that this is for the people that you see on screen and
Zain: and that if you're losing these people this is an acknowledgement that we're losing these people and that we need to either get
Zain: get them back and
Zain: and or make sure they turn out and
Zain: and to me the
Zain: second mind here is is kind of like well fuck it maybe they're actually trying to solve a problem that they actually have here and this ad isn't all that terrible now we could go down the creative aspect of it that interests me less um because we can always criticize as you've said carter we can always criticize people's creative but what's most interesting to me right here is is this a strategic miss by the conservatives that they were trying to target one audience and they just failed with this spot or is this a strategic uh hit by the conservatives which is they were trying to target this 55 year old plus audience and they've nailed it and neither of those things are good for the conservatives but i think it's a fascinating strategic conversation to be having on the basis of one single spot and and and extrapolating from there uh
Zain: uh yeah
Annalise: yeah carter you're you're shaking your head so hard at saying rolling your eyes as well what's going on i
Zain: i could be right that they've acknowledged the problem them and
Zain: they're going after carter we
Carter: do know that they're they've lost men over 65 we know that senior men they have lost like
Zain: that senior men they have lost like and women especially but definitely they've lost the seniors cohort it's right which used to
SPEAKER_02: like and
SPEAKER_02: but
Carter: right which
SPEAKER_02: which
Carter: which used to be which used to be the the the the core audience of the conservatives right um they could count on on winning uh you know white uh seniors writ large charge um does
Carter: this i'm
Carter: not convinced that anybody who's trying to win back that audience tries to win back an audience using that message structure you've got other message structures available to you tax cuts um everybody
SPEAKER_02: audience tries
Carter: thinks they're middle class so saying tax cuts for the middle class would be a spectacular way to go get them instead they go with an affordability message that's mixed in with a uh a status play i mean you know how i feel about status right like status is one of the great you
Carter: know uh things to play with yeah um but why would you cast two super high status men um to try and win back seniors writ large other than just going after like the world's smallest answer to
Zain: after like the world's smallest answer to you they're tell us they're they're not trying to win over seniors writ large i actually think they've lost this group oh
Carter: oh my god
Zain: god
Carter: god
Zain: god
Carter: god i
Zain: i
Zain: mean i i'm just trying to follow the law i don't think jenny burn and team are incompetent right like as much as we'd like to i'm coming to think that they might be okay
Zain: so that's an okay walk me through that line of thinking like how do they get to this spot uh because i think listen
Zain: a narrow-casted wealthy white dude spot in the final 10 days is going to be written about after this election should they lose like regardless this is why like i jokingly want to do an hour about this because and i'm also not joking when i say when's the last time in the final five days or 10 days of an election have Have we had an ad for middle
Zain: middle-aged white dudes or older white dudes? It hasn't happened. It's not been a core demo.
Carter: Oh, I remember. Yeah, when? 1993. Okay, tell us. Jean Chrétien and he can't speak properly.
Zain: properly. Oh, okay, sure. So the response to the attack or was that the attack?
Carter: the response
Carter: response to
Carter: That was the attack and then they wound up having to apologize and take the ad down. Fuck. That to me was the last time they were doing that. This is, yeah.
Zain: attack and
Zain: up having to apologize and take the ad down.
Zain: yeah. So to me, Carter, I think they're trying to solve a problem fundamental
Zain: to their base. You could talk about the ad strategy of spending, getting five of those spots on Leaf Games or having it so publicly exposed. It might be one of, and frankly, in their defense, it is one of five new spots that they have introduced. It's just the one that has punched through the most because of how easy
Zain: it is to attack the creative. But I think there's something really fascinating in the final seven days of an election to
Zain: think about the conservatives saying, fuck, we need to plug the hole of rich white dudes. Holy shit. if that is true what
Zain: do they know that we that that we also know or that we're starting to get to know or that what do they know about their electoral chances here i
Carter: don't know
Carter: what did you where did you see the ad i
Annalise: what did
Annalise: saw it on a news story i didn't yeah this is what i'm curious about then did you see it like on watching sports i've heard there's a heavy male sports i missed most of
Carter: there's
Zain: there's a heavy male sports i missed most of the sports this weekend but i've heard from people who watched hockey this weekend it was i don't think it was on any of the basketball but it definitely was on like a leafs game this way And I may have even been on a Jets game this weekend. Well,
Zain: Well,
Carter: Well,
Zain: the
Carter: the reason I ask is because ads spill over for demographics, right? We can target fairly well on social media. I agree with you completely. But they spill over, especially on mainstream media. So for
SPEAKER_01: can target fairly well on social media. I agree with you completely.
Carter: every white guy that saw this ad, there's going to be, what, 0.6 of a female that watches this ad as well?
Carter: You don't get a clean demo on this when you're doing broadcast media. And I can't see the
Carter: giant brains of the Conservative Party not recognizing there's going to generate some backlash. I
Carter: mean, maybe this is part of is this part of the play.
Carter: Right. We
Carter: get backlash. We get attention. And what we need more than anything is just people talking about us in the last week of this campaign.
Annalise: Yeah. Carter, walk us through that. The the the strategy aspect. Right. To Zane's Zane's point, kind of filling this problem. Like what do you think is the strategy behind this?
Carter: us
Carter: Well, I think the strategy behind this is to win over a voter set. The problem with it is— You mean a broader voter set than
Zain: is— You mean a broader voter set than rich white dudes?
Carter: Yeah. I think that this is an affordability ad that
Carter: that just went horribly wrong because, you
Carter: know, someone was thinking, well, yeah, if we can make it so that even really rich guys are having problems with affordability, everybody
Carter: everybody else will see themselves in this ad.
Carter: I just don't understand it. And
Zain: And
Carter: I think,
Zain: by
Zain: by the way, both of these things, to my earlier point, are bad if true, because, right? But
Zain: this is why, like, the question I've tried to ask is how bad is it for the Conservatives? Because you also have polling right now that has them neck and neck tightening up after the BQ has made a few point gain in Quebec and the seat projections are now, we're now using the other M word minority a lot more often over the course of this weekend in terms of where the Liberals may land. So I'm
SPEAKER_06: after the BQ
Zain: like, part
Zain: part of me is like, maybe the conservatives feel like they're at 38 and the group that they're losing is white men.
Zain: men. And if they can get them back and
Zain: and if they have a medium to advertise in, which is playoff sports, then they have a chance at doing something here. Like, I don't want to just. Do you believe that, Zane? Part of me could.
Zain: The data doesn't necessarily prove it, but this is what I'm kind of like. By
Zain: way, this is like it's bad for the conservatives. in some ways because like this should be the group that sticks with you so like the logic kind of breaks down for me because this should be the core part of your base the first you know circle right in the middle not the last ring to come on board so where is your strategy at right now either they feel like this is who they need to get back to win the election or things are going so badly on their way to 75 seats that they need to double down and triple down their efforts to this group to to get the you
Zain: you know to to get their floor like what do they what are they thinking thinking right now is is is my question i think it's i'm not saying what carter's saying is lazy and easy to say it is lazy and easy to say right
Zain: right but i am i am really curious about what the conservatives are up to with this especially with how much money they're putting behind if this was just if this was a social media spot that they put out and then we would shit on it and then they pulled it but fuck man they ran this at least six times this weekend on on sports trying to hit an audience what are they trying to tell us they're trying to tell us something i'm just just trying to pick up on it well
SPEAKER_02: this
SPEAKER_06: this was a social
SPEAKER_06: out and then we
Annalise: but to the casting point zane yeah do you like that the the fact that the ad spend on this is
Zain: yeah do
Annalise: is so large seems to make it seem weird that it would be so rushed together like the dates on the um yeah the casting were part of it too like it seemed like it was very rushed together you
Zain: seems to make it seem weird
Zain: yeah the casting were part of it
Zain: you you can you can mad libs this but probably someone in the campaign said oh my god either one of holy shit we have to plug this hole or holy shit if we we triple down on efforts on these guys who are going soft on us, Cialis joke, then we definitely have the opportunity to get them back. And that can actually be part of our winning strategy to hold Carney to a minority or our own version of getting a minority.
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Carter: it
Zain: it rushed absolutely but
Carter: all all ads are rushed in in in
Carter: in the last week they're all rushed because you're responding to everything so you
Carter: know getting getting a casting call getting it turned around getting a good shot and getting it out uh is usually about two to three days probably so what's the what is this responding to carter
Annalise: probably so what's the what is this responding to carter
Annalise: carter this
Carter: this
Carter: is this has to be responding to uh a failing on something my gut instinct is also something that's
Zain: my gut instinct is also something that's like that they're they've seen that the hole is actually bigger and wider and like it's moving quicker, much more quickly than they thought it would. Like women are convincing their partners, which is like a marginally sexist thing to say. But Carter, you and I have talked about this often about like split households and how women can often drive the vote of the household at a greater rate
Carter: a
SPEAKER_02: a marginally
Carter: marginally
SPEAKER_02: split
SPEAKER_06: split households
SPEAKER_02: how women
Zain: than men the other way. Maybe where they're experiencing that in some of the focus group texting or in the polling. Like, I don't think it's good that there's a world in which it could be for the conservatives and they could come out after Monday day and explain to us in their miraculous sort of how they held Carney to a minority or how they themselves got a minority, you know, post debrief explanation. But my instinct is that they're trying to plug a hole rather than to do something offensive, like on the offense from a strategic perspective.
Annalise: Zane, you mentioned the other ads. I saw there's one with a Harper endorsement. Have you seen any of the others? Harper
Zain: Harper one is the main one. They've got another attack one on Carney, which seems to be kind
Zain: of more in their lane of just like trudeau uh on housing um i'm really curious if if the lost liberal decade i mean they've got so many slogans even at the fucking end game it's just crazy right they still are keeping with um time for a change lost liberal decade um just like justin is still in the mix they
Zain: have seemed to narrow down on like fourth liberal term which is where they started and i thought would be where they like really push this election like the four strikes or three strikes you're out sort of thing and like don't don't give them the opportunity it seems like they brought that back in um i
Zain: am curious what sort of spend they're getting i can't really tell based on the meta ad library and such but this one punches through for obvious reasons both in terms of what the creative is but also where we've seen the spend um to associated with it but
Carter: but let's let's take let's draw a conclusion from the the the fact that stephen harper's doing an endorsement ad that's one thing yeah
Zain: that's one thing
Zain: yeah
Carter: yeah yeah
Zain: yeah
Carter: yeah it was one thing to put stephen harper on the on an event stage and have stephen harper uh do a little speech and an endorsement from the event stage because that's earned media and sometimes you need to just earn media but this
SPEAKER_01: but this
Carter: this this is purchased media where you're taking the leader out of the spotlight both of these spots take the leader out of the spotlight and
SPEAKER_06: spotlight and
Carter: they
Carter: they put instead paid actors and
Carter: the former leader who lost the last election right
Carter: right decade ago decade
Zain: ago decade old yeah to
Carter: yeah to me this this is all defensive posturing not from a campaign that feels like they just need the last uh the last push to get them over the hump but by a campaign that seems to be um
Carter: um frankly far more more defensive than the recent polls would would indicate that they need to be i
Zain: mean there is something to be said about that right like the guy that was his own thing that we kind of endorsed and appreciated as being a bit of a prick to the drama uh teacher right um is now falling out of favor and when that happens he's really had no relationships i.e any of the premiers ford in particular to fall back on and he's really had no other people that he's um raised
SPEAKER_06: now falling out of favor
Zain: or groomed or were kind of kept alongside him as a 1a um
Zain: um to
Zain: to to really kind of take some of that spotlight and that star away and either soften the blows like there are and we've talked about this in the past there are an incredible amount of talented conservative women running for polyev do we fucking know any of them like you like this podcast might know melissa lansman name a second one i'll wait right
Zain: like the issue is that this guy has been his own thing for the last two years And it has been the absolute bang on strategy. But
Zain: in this perfect storm that has kind of put Mark Carney in favor, the downside of Polyev has not just been personality, it's been the lack of relationships, the lack of social safety net he has from other conservatives. So where does he go? Not to someone on his team who can soften the edges, not to a Ronna Ambrose, not even to a Lisa Rae, but he goes back to Stephen Harper because no one really has not created any 1A stars within his team that can take the load over the last two years and also have a bit of a light on them. And I think that's actually proving
Carter: he go? Not
Zain: proving to be quite a strategic issue for Polyev. So what happens when the guy that has fallen out of favor that people have seen with high unfavorables, what
Zain: happens when in the final 10 days, he can't necessarily be the warm blanket that you need for either bringing you back and or making you feel something,
Zain: at least something positive.
Zain: He's great at making you feel rage, but that's not an endgame strategy. at least that doesn't seem to be the one that they want to run uh to seal the deal they're actually in quite a strategic sort of like quagmire here it's it's not a simple problem for them to solve who's a conservative credible name um
Zain: um that can give them something if the leader isn't able to necessarily close
Zain: close his own fucking campaign
Annalise: so zane if if you were advising in these final days final week here on an ad is that what you would do i would i think harper
Zain: on an
Zain: i would i think harper was a smart idea someone else i think harper was go ahead walk
Annalise: someone else i think harper was go ahead walk us through it despite
Zain: despite his fucking orban issues despite how he left in the the shitty harper decade which which was shitty like memories are short bush is considered a hero compared to trump harper is considered stability despite um what what that it looks like uh from from a rearview mirror perspective and what it obviously felt like for many people uh during that decade and subsequently thereafter um i think harper's a smart move but it actually shows how short the bench is for polyev um because he can't he can't carry the day the other reason i think harper's a smart move uh and the mainly the main reason i shouldn't say the other reason harper's a smart move the reason is because this is going to be a 905 election pierre's not going to be competitive in quebec so 905 who's the only conservative outside of well malrooney who's no longer with us who's been able to so you can probably get one of the malroonies and you already got ben going crazy on ryan and carolyn doing what she can um as part of ford's cabinet who's the other person to kind of really carry the 905 it's been harper um and so i suspect that ad probably finds a lot of 905 voters but then you also add and i'm sorry to keep rambling but you also had another dynamic the 905 extremely fluid politically extremely fluid from an immigration perspective a lot of people there voted for harper 10 years ago a lot of people there never did never have never will um so it's the best shot that they have i I think it's smart. I don't think it's like a silver bullet, though, by any stretch. I think it's, once again, to my earlier point, more descriptive of a problem rather than a smart, strategic sort of offensive strategy.
SPEAKER_06: stability despite
Annalise: Carter, you're just sitting there shaking your head no. Tell the listeners what's wrong with what Zane is saying.
Carter: Well, I don't disagree with Zane's analysis that it's the 905 election. What I do disagree with is Cass is moving away from the principle. principle the very the first thing i would say if i was going to be finishing this election is how do we look like a winner how
SPEAKER_02: is moving away
Carter: do we look like a winner because people vote for the winner they're not voting for you know pierre polyev and his ideas they're not voting for affordability they're not these are things that they come up with afterwards what they want to know is who's the winner going to be and
Carter: and right now these ads are making pierre polyev look like a loser
Carter: and that's why i disagree with them i think that ultimately you know the cialis ad ad uh was was just really
Carter: over the top i mean it was really it was really a bad ad and more more more to the point it was targeted so poorly that it made it look like they are going to lose and that is
Carter: contrary to all the polls right right now the polls are what margin of error margin of error plus two yeah like they're not yeah they're not real uh they're not they're not the the seven point down that they were three weeks ago um
Carter: um
Carter: um all
Carter: of a sudden everything's in play again and
Carter: and if
Carter: if the conservatives could
Carter: pull
Carter: pull it together um
Carter: um and look like they're going to be a winner i think that they would be in a much stronger position rather than you
Carter: you know bringing back a fossil in stephen harper uh
Carter: uh and uh you
Carter: you know reminding us of all the things that we didn't miss let's
Annalise: let's say you're uh you're advising the liberals final six days here what uh what there it has been said that they will be spending millions on ads this week what should their ads look like they
Carter: should be looking like ads of the winter i think i think that they have mark carney walking out into packed crowds where people love them um
Carter: um you know it doesn't matter the rally size it matters the rally affection and you know mark carney's been extremely well received everywhere he's gone i would you know throw up polls i'd start showing how you know the the liberals are the ones in the driver's seat quote
Carter: quote every pundit that said that this is going to be a it looks like it's going to be a liberal majority quote quote quote quote quote just
Carter: just put
Carter: the pedal to the metal and say we are the winner already we
Carter: we have won this election that's
Carter: that's what wins elections in today's super shallow world So
Annalise: So Zane, final days, let's say you're advising the liberals. What does your ideal creative look like for them in this homestretch?
Zain: Carter's not wrong in the sense that they need something that embraces Carney, that shows momentum.
Zain: momentum. But I guess at
Zain: the heart of it, it needs to show a couple of other things. It needs to show like an anthemic sort of vibes, right? It has to have vibes in it. Trudeau was great at this. you really didn't even need to produce Trudeau in the final 10 days because he could just go rally to rally he would speak as if he was shooting an ad every single time you could cut that shit together put some nice music on it less easy for Carney the rooms are not as full the rallies are more technocratic I'm not saying he's human valium but like you know he's a different type of political speaker so you as a campaign need to engineer momentum so whether that is showing Showing B-roll, and as I get specific on this particular spot, B-roll of him meeting with people, engaging in community, doing what Carney does well, listening, delivering from a podium, being prime minister, like just do fast cuts. If the guy isn't quick, you make the cuts quick, right? So you do like a bunch of quick cuts to kind of show momentum, energy, do a recap of the campaign, where we've been, what it's looking like. So even if he's not moving quick with his words, which he doesn't, even if he's not moving quick with his body, which he doesn't, you make the cuts extremely quick so it shows momentum in that way. You make the music that way so it kind of shows something. So that's the sort of anthemic aspect of it. The
Carter: time you
Zain: The content of it has to do two things in my mind. Carney's got to tell a story for fucking sake. He can't just show up to these rallies and start speaking with
Zain: with a bunch of policy solutions.
Zain: um tell me like a 30 second story clip next time scripted in your next rally right i mean we're talking let's just say you asked me this question last week i'd say have a rally this weekend and add the 30 second spot script which i've done before carter you've done before yeah right add two to three versions of it in your next rally speech and then whichever one comes off cleanest we can cut put together uh but it needs to be for carney's particular sake it needs to be a story Tell me what an imagined future looks like in Canada with you as leader. It's a Sunday. You are doing what? You're safe because of X. Your wallet's full. You're living life. You're doing whatever. You're enjoying things. Tell me a story, whatever that looks like. I have not heard that from Carney. I know it's not a strength from Carney, but we're talking about a set piece here. We're not talking about him having to fundamentally change his personality. We need something that kind of says that. and i think all that leads to like make people feel something make people feel something which kind of then leads me to saying carter's right that this needs to be one of the spots the second spot though in my mind has to be ballot
SPEAKER_06: i'd
Carter: i'd say have a
SPEAKER_06: a
Carter: a
SPEAKER_02: yeah right
Carter: make people
Zain: ballot box question man
Zain: carney's the right choice but let's remind people what the right the question is again trump
Carter: trump trump go back to trump man
Zain: trump trump
Zain: go back to trump man and i and i think tariffs are actually a false flag i think tariffs are actually a red herring um go back to 51st state go back to annexation go back to um the relationship is over go back to um america wants to break us so they can own us uh do your version like which is a carney line by the way would go back to that go back to your thesis statement on that and why you're the best so the second ad to me is almost like how do you create a prime ministerial spot you're doing one anthemic mark carney momentum spot with a story and then you're doing one spot that tries to tell the story as prime minister about the threat we face and why this guy and using the incumbency advantage i mean not with the podium and everything but you see what i'm you know what i'm trying to say
Zain: what those look like how those sound especially the second one i think you could go through a bit of debate they've
Carter: what those look
Zain: got the money that needs to be their end game i think a waste of time would be like a straight up go tv go vote sort of bullshit ad i think people like look at the advance people are knowing what to do like people know what to do you just need to remind them what's at stake again and why the momentum is still on your side as you as
Zain: as polls tighten like polls are tightening here right like the liberals are not where they were 10 days ago um
Zain: um and
Zain: and so they need to they need to get to a position where they use their paid creative to try to get help them get there so
Annalise: so you want you want them hitting people in the fields is what you're saying more
Zain: so than they have and i want them to like when i say i want them to feel something part of it is i want want them to like people to be like
Zain: not emotional about it but like kind
Zain: of like there's so much like all of this like if you could summarize the liberal campaign right now it should just be canada but
Zain: like for some reason it's not right like it should just be canada right now um the trump question is answered by the question canada and the carney question is answered by why are you up ahead why are you winning why are you like what what are you doing this for it's canada so like i would like that back uh i think they put something in a bottle uh
Zain: uh at the beginning see
Zain: if they can do it again i don't know that would be my thinking i don't know if i'm if you really want to
Carter: if you really want to see the canada question get answered volunteer for cory hogan's campaign on sunday uh there's a whole bunch of canada happening where
Carter: can
Annalise: can people sign up there carter uh
Carter: uh coryhogan.ca uh volunteer and uh tara we'll get right back to you perfect
Carter: perfect can they can they
Zain: can they can they find can they find that email address at floodthezone.ca i
Carter: believe they can at floodthezone.ca so if they go to floodthezone
Zain: so if they go to floodthezone.ca it will open up to a Google Doc, which will send them the email, which will provide them the email address to email. Is that right?
Carter: I think that's exactly what's going to happen, yeah. I
Zain: I feel like that's adding an extra step, but I feel like for the purpose of this podcast, people like the friction.
Carter: Yeah, the friction's good. Slowing them down is what they need. They need to be slowed down. If
Zain: If you forget that first website, you can also go to likethefriction.ca. Oh, my God.
Carter: Oh, my
SPEAKER_06: my God.
Zain: We'll also have all of it there at likethefriction. So beyond
Annalise: there at likethefriction. So beyond us, let's chat more about the timing here, this final week, the final push, the advice, what Conservatives need to do, what Liberals need to do, what the NDP even needs to do.
Annalise: Zain, to start with you, just kind of what's your overall advice? You can take that where you want for the final few days here. here uh
Zain: uh jagmeet singh um has
Zain: to try to be honest with himself and it seems like as the weeks have gone on that he's finally getting there the ground game i feel like has always been there but now his his watch where he goes he's going he was in victoria i was in victoria this weekend jagmeet singh was in victoria this weekend spoiler alert victoria should be an ndp stronghold it has been for a very long time it may not go ndp he is on a honest fight to try to save his party official Now, there is a question in my mind around if official status is overblown for the future of the NDP. Yes, this is where I'm at right now. Like the the win for the NDP will be 12 is amazing. Less than 12 is disaster, not percentage seats. So like, we're at 12 seats right now. They're on a race to get 12 seats. Now, I think party status is overblown as it relates to the remaking of the NDP. My mind is already at the remaking of the NDP right now, federally, in terms of where that goes. But Jagmeet Singh needs to be honest with himself. Mark Carney needs to tell a story and get us back to the ballot box question. And Pierre Poliev, he's
SPEAKER_06: he is on
Zain: not going to pivot.
Zain: He needs to figure out what his offensive strategy is, because
Zain: everything I've seen has been defensive, barring the first 40 minutes that we spent on these ads and the strategy inherently underneath them which could you know be as simple as the
SPEAKER_06: the the the
Zain: the
SPEAKER_06: the the purest
Zain: purest defensive strategy you could see if that's the case and if that if carter and i agree whether creative almost outside of the scope of that question what
Zain: are you doing on the offense man like the notwithstanding clause i fucking hated it but i saw it i thought that was smart i thought that was interesting but i don't know if it's got a a life beyond where where it was prior to the debates um is Is their offensive strategy going after the liberal platform? Maybe. I think releasing their own platform is going to bring a world of hurt to them because you will see how much how many dollars in public sector cuts they'll ultimately be proposing and the media will be quick to hit on that. Figure out your offensive strategy in the final week, because if Carter one thing, you know, I don't call Jenny Byrne incompetent, but I do. She
Zain: has a track record of doing shit in the final week that's, like, multiple Hail Marys at the same time.
Zain: We've seen that before. Conservatives
Carter: Conservatives have a
Zain: a really hard time closing out.
Zain: They really do. They really do. We saw this with
Carter: They really do. We saw this with Tom Flanagan for years. Especially when
Zain: Especially when they're behind. Yeah.
Zain: Yeah.
Carter: Yeah.
Zain: And so, to me, if I see a Jenny Byrne Hail Mary, it's actually an acknowledgment that they're behind for the first time. It's like another read, like T. Lee read, right? I haven't seen it yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if they do. but i would just for whatever it's worth i'd say that's not a hail mary is not an offensive strategy it's like it's exactly what it is it's a hail mary figure out your offensive strategy the other sort of factor i'll just add this onto the is that we're monday 9
Zain: 20 p.m advanced voting is done i don't know what percentage you guys think i'm really curious what
Annalise: advanced voting
Carter: voting
Zain: do you think a third of canadians have already voted carter yeah
Carter: yeah i'd say i'd say a third of the people who are going to vote for it fuck
Zain: yeah i'd say
Carter: fuck
Zain: fuck like here we are right like a third are already in the can here so you're only doing this for for two-thirds of the audience of which if you're the conservatives in a in a historic high 38 38 of those people are yours um you're trying to grow them three to four percent man that's a tough targeting exercise when so many people are off the port already um the advanced vote stuff is a real killer especially if you're the party that could use another day another week another 10 days and that's the conservatives at this point
Annalise: carter what does the advanced vote stuff tell us do you think what
Carter: does the advanced vote tell us it tells us less and less now that we've got we've got people who have been trained uh now to vote at the at the advanced polls there used to be kind of a and the advanced poll if it was high it showed really uh negative outcomes for the incumbents but now everybody's targeting their their gotv get out the vote structures to um to push out the advanced vote a vote that's cast is a vote that you don't have to worry about so everybody's pushing their advanced votes um you
SPEAKER_01: got we've
Carter: you know people like to you know the most committed voters are making up their minds early and getting out early uh it's it's become a lot easier you just have to provide like a note this is why you weren't going to be there right you know it was getting out of class it was it was hard it wasn't easy at all and now you can just vote whenever the hell you feel like it you can walk into any elections at Canada office and just vote whenever. So it doesn't necessarily make sense that there'd be any advantage or disadvantage. We do sometimes see differences between the advance votes and the election day. But generally speaking, that's because something major has happened in those four days or five days or six days that are intervening. I
SPEAKER_01: or five
Carter: I don't know that we're We're going to see anything that's monumental.
Carter: And Zane's point about the numbers is really interesting. When you start taking one third of Canadians off the table because they're not going to vote at all, you take another third of the remaining group and
Carter: and say, well, they've already voted. You
Carter: You are down to less than half the population that
Carter: that is
Carter: targetable. Accessible. Yeah.
Zain: Accessible. Yeah.
Carter: Yeah.
Zain: Yeah. In their universe. You know,
Carter: Yeah. In their
Carter: know, those people are going to vote, but they're also going to make up their vote very late. This is why I'm convinced that the way to approach it is to be going after it and saying, we are the winners. We are the winners. And Annalise, I think that that's where, you
Carter: you know, the Conservatives are failing and the Liberals are succeeding, is going in and saying we're the winners. And the NDP are non-existent because they're legitimately the only ones who can't make the argument. The Bloc Québécois, they're actually saying we could be the leverage in the middle. And they're and they're getting rewarded for it in the province of Quebec to
SPEAKER_01: The Bloc Québécois,
Carter: to two polls
Zain: polls in your favor. If you're the conservatives, which they've had in the last week, builds a trend. You
Zain: can almost like spin a trend this way. They need to spin enthusiasm, right? They need to spin that the tide is turning. Comeback kid, Christy Clark shit. And I have seen none of that, mainly because it's their pride getting in the way, saying that they've they've ever been down. you can't come back if you're telling your fucking national party that you've been leading the entire time right
Zain: and so there's like inherently something there's an issue here where if the conservatives like and from all the reporting that we've seen to carter's point have not acknowledged that they've ever been losing outside of a few actions which is why i spent so much time on the ads because i think it's so fascinating um but they've never acknowledged they've been down right
Zain: from a national party perspective if you don't acknowledge you're losing you
Zain: can't have a fucking comeback
Annalise: a good point zane it
Zain: it is a very elementary point but they have actually let the comeback story in the final seven days of which the raw ingredients are there for them
Zain: it's you know it was one newspaper rap and one marginal win in a debate carter but it was spun into mythology that's our fucking job you
Zain: you're telling me you couldn't spin a pretty an a minus debate performance in the main street poll and an abacus tightening into the fact that that Pierre Polyev's got fucking mojo. I think you could have done it. I think we could have done it if
Zain: if we wanted to. But the fact is you're fucking, you're never admitting you're down. So you don't have the availability to kind of say, we're making a comeback. A late surge is here to look like the winners to your point. And so part of it is like,
Zain: don't, they're out of moves. They're out of like tactical moves, not strategic moves. Cause your strategic move is correct. They're out of tactical moves because it's like, you know, It's only been rumored and talked about and only reported by mainstream media, but the conservative bubble has said, no, we're up the entire time. Now, they could still surprise us on Monday, and all of us are eating crow and have egg on our face. But if they don't, once
Zain: again, like another made-for-TV movie that we're going to be watching about what happened inside the conservative movement.
Annalise: So given everything that you've just laid out, Zane, seven days left, six days left, what do they do? What do the conservatives do?
Zain: They need to find their offensive strategy. I don't, I don't, they need to do something, right? They can
Zain: try to go with the winner strategy that we're winning, manufacture something. They just seem to be, like I said, out of tactical moves. So they need to go on the offense. Honestly, one of the other things they've done poorly, which is surprising to me considering the fact that this is really in Jenny Byrne and Pierre Polyev's bailiwick, is find the soft tissue on Mark Carney. And I'd say after 35 days, and frankly, let's call it 100, with Carney's end-to-end run, they've
Carter: They
Carter: -end run, they've
Zain: tried and they've missed like they may have gotten it like i said i could be surprised next monday i'm leaving that option open but
Zain: but at least from a public perspective i don't see every conservative singing off the same songbook instead i see a bunch of people saying a bunch of crazy things about mark carney everything ranging from the extreme right to the the not so like oh he's just like justin which i think is the weakest of their arguments um they haven't nailed the the the negative this is a this is a reform party bunch that were built trained um bred
Zain: on finding the soft tissue of their opponents and just fucking hammering as they did with trudeau um they should have been able to do this in 100 days and
Zain: the fact that they didn't on carney like you
Zain: know fuck the whole we didn't pivot our campaign that
Zain: i could even buy like carter's made a good point on it and i'm starting to believe it that trump was never the conservative question but
Zain: but bringing carney having mark carney like if there's anything about this campaign that i think is an absolute aberration it's not that the conservatives didn't pivot it's that mark carney ran a campaign where his fucking
Zain: fucking approval went up rather than down carter
SPEAKER_01: down carter
Zain: carter how many times does someone spend political capital and their approval goes up rather than down do you want to list the amount of times especially during a general election campaign in a country do you want to to list the number of times that's happened before i
Carter: mean kretchen had it in the first election uh trudeau had it in his first election um but it really is man it really well mulrooney mulrooney in both elections general approval
Zain: but it really is man it really well
Zain: general approval going up for mark carney a complete unknown who you had the ability to define for a hundred days plus knowing that he was coming and then going to win not being able to nail it and then in the general election 36 days his approval's gone up not down that to me is the real failing here that the conservative machine that is primed to go negative and be the most effective at it didn't
Zain: didn't and wasn't um
Zain: um but
Carter: but
Carter: but
Zain: but they would would be required
Carter: required to pivot saying no
Carter: no i don't think you're required to pivot then they didn't know how it's different than
Zain: no i don't think you're required to
Zain: then they didn't know how it's different than the question of pivoting their campaign strategy they were going after carney they've just missed like
Zain: carter they were throwing 15 things at carney none of them have landed they've missed on all of them
Annalise: Because there was too much.
Carter: Because
Zain: Because there was too much.
Carter: much.
Carter: Yeah, it was too much. They didn't narrow before they went out. It started with 15. I
Zain: before they went out. It started with 15. I agree with that.
Carter: I agree with that. And they didn't take the time to figure out which punches were going to land. And so they threw all the punches at once and they punched themselves out. And we've talked about
Zain: out. And we've talked about them. Like, why are you doing this shit publicly? Yeah, exactly. Don't you have enough money, especially in your war chest prior to the election, to do this shit privately and with much more accurate data and, you know, revision sort of focus group testing, et cetera, to find a line of attack before you go out throwing spaghetti at the wall with 15 second spots and then we always thought carter we always thought at least i did that
Carter: Yeah, exactly. Don't
Zain: they that they knew something we didn't know that
Zain: there was no i never believed that yeah okay i never
Carter: there was no i never believed that yeah
Carter: never believed maybe
Zain: i'm giving them too much credit um because
Carter: i'm giving them too much
SPEAKER_02: much
Zain: they've been so fucking effective at this until
Zain: until when it mattered like
Zain: like it's just crazy ready
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Carter: I'm
Zain: I'm loving it. I'm
Zain: not hating it.
Zain: I'm just, I'm still, I'm still not ready to call it,
Zain: as you can see.
Annalise: Carter, are you?
Carter: I'm not prepared to call it beyond the fact that I think that the liberals are going to win the election. I'm certainly not going to call a minority majority. Yeah, I'm not even ready
Zain: Yeah, I'm not even ready to call that shit, Carter. Seriously. I'm
Zain: I'm
Carter: I'm ready to call it.
Zain: You just don't think there's enough time?
Carter: You just don't think
Carter: Well, I think that they've taken all the pieces off the board i
Carter: think that when you're down to half the hey you know probably there's
SPEAKER_01: know probably
SPEAKER_01: there's
Carter: there's no pieces left on the board how are you going to to make a move when you only have half the audience left um you just you just don't have enough play
Carter: you're at 38 already what are you going to do go to 41 like is that legitimately in the in the offing for a pierre paliev led conservative party i can't believe he's at 38 yeah
Zain: yeah 30 it's impressive like it's super high it's
Carter: super high it's super high and
Carter: and and and to be in that place uh it's fantastic for him but he doesn't know how to use it he doesn't have the capacity to use the tools that he's been given okay
Annalise: guys last thing we will talk about is platforms um maybe this will change some things both the liberals and ndp now have released their full costed platforms the liberals on saturday of the easter long weekend ndp also released theirs and And Conservatives have yet to release theirs, but say tomorrow, Tuesday, is the day that a costed plan will be released. We've talked about how many people have already voted, how many people there are still to go. Do platforms matter? And I want to get into, Zane, we'll go with you first, the timing of this, of doing it so that the full costing release so late in an already really short, condensed time. Yeah,
Zain: I think the first thing is part of it because it's short and it's condensed. dance so like it is late but it's also not late there's also no like due date for this exercise and in fact there's also what i would argue um no reason for this exercise this is just like a world of hurt especially for the liberals what the fuck were they doing this weekend i don't know if i don't i don't carter do you agree i don't know if you suspect you're with me on this i
Carter: i i know i understanding of why anybody would release a platform ever um yeah i'm with you it is not something that is going to uh take poundings i mean this is where rachel notley was when she released her fully costed platform that included a uh a
Zain: yeah i'm with you it
SPEAKER_01: when she released
SPEAKER_05: released
Carter: a tax increase on what was it a tax increase on corporations and uh that became the the rallying cry that ultimately could have cost her the election fucking deja vu
Zain: fucking deja vu man when i saw that this weekend and like i was like what are they now once again i am not seeing the conservatives laser like pick up on one thing is
Carter: saw that this weekend
Carter: and like i
Carter: was like what
Zain: is that a weakness or is it to come i mean they don't have time so the advantage for the liberals is that the pope fucking died so
Zain: like that's a new story that's not going to be about your costed platform like i'm being serious here like the pope dying is actually super helpful yeah like
Annalise: super helpful yeah like
Zain: like this could have been a thing like the liberals have so much fucking shit in there um you know like proud of of them they put together policy of course they did they're in government who cares none of this matters like none of this is about trump none of this was about like the headline for me at least the one i saw over and over again was ivf funding great but then i'm also seeing another headline 140 billion carter why do i know that number why
Zain: do i know that number i shouldn't know that number that's the whole point why the fuck do i know a number that ends in billion and has so many numbers in it i shouldn't know that number especially from a carney-led uh liberal government right and i get part of it is tax breaks and i want to be fair to the liberals but part of it is about the tax cuts and it's the spending that's needed for you know fighting trump and you know maybe it's a covet era like mindset i don't care i don't care this wasn't necessary right
Zain: right like this was this was not no one was looking for this no one was going to vote for this no one needed this um you know uh fucking stick to message stick to plan stick to story uh stick to solution people have all it's you know what it reminded me of carter when you talk about 330 330 this concept concept of like my
SPEAKER_06: this was this
Carter: concept of like
Zain: concept is is similar right like is that you know the thing for three seconds 30 seconds three minutes and 30 minutes and you put it out there there's gonna be different audiences for both however what form also matters here right when you've sold someone the three second version of yourself do you keep selling steven carter fuck
Zain: no no you stop selling stop selling mark carney has sold the three and 30 second version of himself there are no three minute and 30 minute mark carney buyers out there folks they're all with you already they're called the new democrats they don't care what the fuck you do they're in a weird headspace they're not looking for you to write a progressive essay or spend more money in order to come to you they're at fucking five percent and going lower their leader is fighting for party status what are you doing stop selling mark carney but this weekend they put out a massive what
Zain: platform fully costed fully developed checklist manifest i'd fuck me like it was just really annoying because there's no one to sell this to they've already purchased they've already bought you and now you're in a position where you've kind of left all of this out hanging
Zain: hanging for
Zain: for the conservatives to mold and attack you but
Zain: but thankfully you
Zain: know may he rest in peace because i think he was awesome the pope has died
Annalise: carter why why do parties still go through this exercise of the the detail costage platform platform like talk to me about this i don't
Carter: i don't know somewhere in some campaign manager's handbook they put you must release a fully costed platform in order to win an election i have no idea it has never been a positive turning point in an election it is only a negative turning point and i i have no idea why anybody would think that this is actually something that is required in a modern political campaign. No one understands the fullness of government. No one understands all the inputs and outputs of a fully
Carter: fully costed platform. I mean, that is utter and complete lunacy. What we need is a platform that is constructed around electability. And that platform needs to have maybe six or seven planks over a 35-day campaign that actually stand out. I mean, you you might release 35 different days of 35 different ideas, but six or seven ideas are going to be the themes are going to be the things that hold it all together, making Canada more affordable, protecting us from Donald Trump, making sure that we've got a safe supply of eggs and a safe supply of milk, you know, that that the United States doesn't have. these are things that we can start to trumpet we are actually doing a great job in and it's because of the liberals says the liberal campaign and we could do a better job says the conservative campaign but you don't need to to do a fully costed platform as though it's the but i mean how long is the federal budget zane 800
Carter: 800 000 pages you
Carter: you know yeah it's not a five page document you
Zain: yeah it's not a five page document you You bring up something interesting, is that while the
Zain: the liberals, it's
Zain: really interesting. One thing we actually forget about the liberals in this election because of how shitty their polling has been for so long is that their government, and we talk about government-itis attacking you, and I have not seen this on this campaign up until now. This
Zain: is the presence of a group of people, at least in part, because I know some of the Carney people are new, but a lot of the Carney people are not, who
Zain: who have been in government and want to write government platforms, want to write government policy, because that's their job. They're policy people. They want to write laws. And they're smart. They're talented. They're well-educated. They've got great ideas. They're the brokerage part. All of that is correct and true and beautiful.
Carter: and true and
Zain: But the problem is, is that the
Zain: the
Zain: Kim Campbell quote still remains, like, election is no time for policy, man. Like, hide that shit away, right? This is a time for story and value statements, to Carter's point. And this is the rare moment where I think the the campaign caught themselves being a bit of government, despite the fact that the current PM has only been there for so long.
Zain: This
Zain: is what incumbent parties often do. They
Zain: come out with a big policy book, or they don't talk about the art of the possible. They talk about what a budget document looks like. They talk about what a policy brief looks like versus a, say
Zain: say with me, Carter, how many times has our friend Corey Hogan said this, a
Zain: a communications document. This was not a communications document this was not the cretchen red book this was not the trump defeating mega uh
SPEAKER_02: not a
Carter: a communications
SPEAKER_02: communications
Zain: uh playbook this was not the you know and that's probably too harsh of a brand but you know what i mean right yeah like the the keep canada this wasn't this wasn't even called the um canada strong playbook fucking
Zain: fucking great name right
SPEAKER_00: right like
Zain: right like whatever that needs to be like this wasn't even that this was the
Zain: the government doing policy on behalf of the liberal party by liberals and it who's like, it's great. I'm sure there's some awesome ideas in there, guys.
Zain: Tell me later once you've won the election, right? Like, this is not the time for it. Now, does it seem like the conservatives are going to repeat that same mistake tomorrow? Maybe, maybe not. Like, I wonder if they're going to try to go with a completely different tact of what fully costed means and try to go with a big tax break headline or maybe try to go with our spend is going to be significantly less than their spend and try to make that their final offensive play. I am very curious about what Because I didn't know that this is coming out tomorrow, Annalise, what their version of this looks like. Because they could be in for a world of hurt, too. Or they could have done something that capitalizes on now knowing and seeing the other guy's homework and test results and seeing what they can do differently and how they can present differently. And maybe the Conservatives will use this as a communications opportunity, not just a
Zain: potpourri of policy. see carter
Zain: carter is it
Annalise: carter is it is it an opportunity for the conservatives given everything that we've been talking about about what they need to do in the final days like what you probably have has says tuesday um is the day that the the costed plan will be released what could this be an opportunity
Carter: yeah i mean this might be the day that they talk about the best tax cuts in the history of mankind and everybody's going to have them including those two white guys in the on the golf course But I suspect it will be a nothing burger. I suspect that we will be
Carter: back. Your best case scenario when you release one of these is that people forget about it, in my mind.
Annalise: To Zane's point, the timing of Pope dying, does that make people forget the liberal one? And then you have the Tuesday conservative one. Who gets hurt by the timing here? I
Carter: mean, sure, the Pope dying is the story of today, so you would forget about the story of Saturday. But if it wasn't the Pope dying, it would have been something else. And by Thursday of this week, there would be something else that's going to happen that's going to make us forget about the conservative platform. The truth of the matter is we're goldfish. We don't remember one story to the next story to the next story. We might remember something that forms a narrative, that forms a story, that repeats on us. But
SPEAKER_02: And by Thursday of this
Carter: realistically, you know, the Pope died. That's a day story, day and a half story. You know, two days from now, something else is going to happen that's going to make us forget about the conservative platform.
Annalise: Was there a time when these detailed, costed platforms mattered? like to your point about short attention spans like what was there a time when they matter i'm just still stuck on why we do this exercise if there's nothing gained out of it yeah
Carter: yeah i think that there was a time when the mainstream media was going to base their their endorsements and you know they had to have documents to base it on right like they were going to do a deep dive as to what's been planned and what's been what's been offered but there there is no you
Carter: you know independent media that's not already chosen their sides uh already i mean there's there's just no upside to it um and then a lot of people used to take the advice of the local media uh and follow and and vote conservative or vote liberal depending on what the the local media uh had said had suggested but those days are so long gone i mean i can barely remember them is is practically back when i was delivering newspapers as a boy you know yeah
Carter: i heard newspapers?
Zain: i heard newspapers?
Annalise: newspapers? I
Carter: I did deliver newspapers.
Zain: Captain Lee's son, just like Pierre Polyev. Jeff Polyev.
Carter: Captain Lee's son, just like Pierre Polyev.
Carter: My granddad also
Annalise: My granddad also did. Popular job in Calgary.
Carter: Your granddad.
Annalise: Yeah, he did. That hurt me
Carter: That hurt me so
Carter: so deep. I
Annalise: I know. I said that just for you.
Annalise: Zane, what were you going to say there? Not about delivering newspapers?
Carter: Zane, what were
Zain: I never delivered newspapers.
Zain: Never. That's a good story. It was also... That's
Carter: Never.
Annalise: Never. That's
SPEAKER_06: That's a good story.
Carter: It
Zain: an interesting question. I feel like Carter's right around the media endorsements but carter i also think there was a time when there was large advocacy groups that you would try to appease and or win over with your platform and their endorsement of you uh
Zain: labor is probably the like the the classic one right
Zain: right but like other groups were and we used to have a lot more of these stakeholder groups that were tightly bound had control of their membership they could be religious they could be workplace they could be otherwise association based would have a lot more control of their members and those folks used to play a lot more explicitly as well and try to get into the platform can we get into the platform can we get into the platform this concept of getting into the platform having the party that was going to form government or have a chance at forming government acknowledge your group and acknowledge your pain point and then And you endorsed them because they one party acknowledged it better or had a better solution or copy and pasted the solution you provided to them, whether that be on fees or mandatory whatever's. And, you know, it was also an exercise, fully costed and otherwise, to
Carter: be workplace they
Zain: to
Zain: to try to win over groups. groups and i think as we have fewer and fewer groups as we kind of center around the individual in a much more american-like context that these groups are looking are a and i think to a fault not as strong anymore because i think you can get a lot of fucking great shit done if you band together and push for your cause and try to get into the platform as a core goal of an election campaign like there is power there uh to be honest um but b in in the absence of a lot of that that organization across a lot of different industries, sectors, etc., it
SPEAKER_06: i think as
SPEAKER_02: great shit
Zain: actually reduces the value of that costed platform, too. It's kind of like a chicken and egg sort of situation. So there's that other piece. But I don't know if you agree, Carter, but I think the banding together from
Zain: from a communal sense of stakeholder groups has actually decreased outside of, you
Zain: you know, a few of the powerful ones, the chambers and the more sort of explicit lobby groups.
Annalise: know, a few
Annalise: Zane, do you think there's something that could like replace a platform? Like if a platform, a detailed costage expansive long platform is this like old school thing that is not relevant nowadays yeah
Zain: yeah is
Annalise: is there you're you're a creative guy like is there some sort of you know thing that could replace it that could build into a campaign this thing that generates headlines for a few days yeah
Zain: my mind goes towards more like like values and and stories again and like who i know the ndp tried something which i think was a bit of a failed experiment but i i think you you don't throw out the entire thing altogether. But Carter, I don't remember if this was the 21 or the 19 election where the NDP kind of said who we're in it for, and then they listed a bunch of groups, almost like tags. And then they said, like, based on these tags, you click on these tags and you see, like, what's in it for you. And maybe that's a bit too reductive and extremely transactional, but there's a part of me that would like to see, like, how do you take a platform and distill it into who we're in it for and what we see in you or what we value in you and what we've heard from you sort of thing.
SPEAKER_02: And then
Carter: But
Zain: But at the end of the day, any hit
Zain: hit that comes out of a policy platform, I think is better engineered through single shingle announcements on their own. They don't need to be part of a broader playbook. They're better engineered through creative that you either pay for or that is done through an endorsement class or through other organizations. I don't think putting out a set piece that's about your entire platform, which then ultimately ends up being the hit of the day, that's just like creating, engineering a solution for a problem that doesn't exist. And frankly, that might be the takeaway here. The platform might be a solution for a problem that no longer exists.
SPEAKER_02: to be part of
Annalise: Carter, do we do away with it completely? Put all those people writing it on the doors? What do we do? do yeah
Carter: yeah i mean i i i never understood writing a platform i i i liked having uh planks of a platform that i could that i could spin out but i i don't like the book i think that you know putting out the the the plat the costed fully costed platform uh it's just a waste of time and energy um it keeps uh what 12 eggheads busy during the campaign but that doesn't solve any real campaigning issues.
Annalise: Okay, guys,
Annalise: guys, let's leave it there. That is a wrap on episode 1863 of The Strategist. I'm your host, Annalise Klingbeil. And with you, as always, Stephen Carter and Zane Belgi. Running
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