Zain: This is a strategist episode 1861. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Stephen Carter and no one else. It's just you and I, Carter.
Zain: Although we did, we did, we were out, we were out to support our boy the other day. Yeah, we did. We did a show.
SPEAKER_01: Although we
Carter: we
SPEAKER_01: we
Carter: we did, we did, we were out, we
SPEAKER_01: we
Carter: we
SPEAKER_01: we
Carter: Yeah, we did. We did a show. To
Zain: a smattering of applause. And we should have, you know, here's what we should have done.
Zain: We should ask people ahead of time if they heard the podcast before. That would have actually been a really good filtration
Zain: filtration system.
Carter: system.
Carter: You weren't paying attention. I literally did. did
Zain: yeah i guess i guess you did and then we did we did nothing with the results though i guess that's what i'm trying to say we
Carter: i guess i guess you did and then we
Carter: that's what i'm trying to say we
Carter: we ignored it as we always do we we ignore the split room
Zain: we ignore the split room of
Zain: folks who had not heard the podcast and then they're like well why are these two guys randomly showing up and taking shit on the candidate yeah
Carter: exactly well
Carter: well i mean we had the best job of the whole campaign
Zain: here's here's here's the fun part that episode if we can call it that um
Zain: um is
Zain: recorded recorded now
Zain: now we have no intention of releasing it because
Zain: because i don't know if we've helped or hurt the candidate carter i
Carter: think we can release it after he's elected i
Zain: i feel like that is absolutely fair yeah
Zain: um before he's elected i'm not sure i'm
Zain: i'm not sure if we helped after i'm
Carter: i'm not sure if we helped after i'm not sure we helped
Zain: i'm not sure we helped
Carter: yeah after he's elected maybe we could keep him from getting a cabinet position
Zain: that's true we could hold it as leverage that's actually really good we could do a we could do do a patreon jump ball with it um exactly we
Carter: um exactly we
Zain: we
Zain: we could we could sell it to the patrons and or the listeners to say how badly do you not want cory to get a cabinet seat exactly
Carter: exactly that's good and all proceeds go to us yeah all proceeds go to us
Zain: that's good and all proceeds go to us yeah all proceeds go to us yeah yeah you carter yeah it's like you're miles ahead i know it's late for you but it's your miles ahead i'm
Carter: it's like you're miles ahead i
Carter: i know it's late for you but
Carter: i'm tired i'm tired holy smokes i was at the campaign office all day today what were you doing
Zain: what were you doing you're planting buttons at different campaign offices i
Carter: i was i was going into jeremy nixon's campaign and finding buttons stop the
Zain: i was i
Zain: and finding buttons stop the steel buttons stop
Carter: stop the steel yeah uh jenny burn crossed out and cory tonight underneath okay
Zain: okay
Zain: okay can we talk about this let's just let's just get into this because i wanted to talk about a preview for later this week wednesday thursday french and english debates respectively but um
Zain: um do we have our first gate of
Zain: of the campaign carter do we have our first gate i
Carter: first gate
Carter: i do
Zain: do
Carter: do
Zain: do we have buttons why do you hate gates i
Carter: do we have buttons why
Carter: hate gates because i mean first of all very american and secondly nothing ever rises to that level right like this is not rising to the level do you think watergate rose to the
Zain: ever rises
Zain: you think watergate rose to the level of a gate i actually don't think it did in retrospect watergate should not have been a gate no
Carter: retrospect watergate
Carter: i mean when we're comparing to donald trump no yeah but when we're comparing to normal presidents it was pretty important it was pretty it was a pretty big deal but i i think right now it's more more of like a door is not a water door yeah i
Zain: it's more more of like a door is not a water door yeah
Zain: i mean i'm gonna be banning the water door yeah
Carter: i think that we should also go with button
Carter: down how's that you like that button
Zain: button down okay
Zain: let's give people some real problem it's
Carter: let's give people some real problem it's just um okay this
Zain: um okay this is how boring the weekend was and or this is how important this story is i actually don't know you're gonna tell me carter uh two liberal party operatives were were caught well not even caught they fucking tattled on themselves in a bar afterwards doing this they were planting um stop the steel buttons and jenny burn crossed out with cory tonight buttons to i guess so or propel or catalyze tensions within the conservative movement at the manning sending center conference in in ottawa this weekend they planted these buttons during a networking reception um so as to you know
Carter: two liberal
Carter: were planting
Zain: the fuckery that that campaigns do carter the this article reporting by cb cbc goes on to say exactly what i did at the first part Part of which is these staffers were, you
SPEAKER_01: campaigns do carter
Zain: know, in
Zain: two Ottawa bars. They kind of shared how they did this behind the scenes, which is how this was found out. They were sitting next to a journalist off fucking course they were. So that part of the story, that part of the story, hilarious and intriguing to me. The
Carter: which
SPEAKER_01: which is how
Carter: how
SPEAKER_01: So that part of the story, that
SPEAKER_01: to me.
Zain: second part of this that's interesting is
Zain: is that this was, as
Zain: suggested, done
Zain: by the liberal war room. That the war room had kind of pushed this upon them. Now, this is all sources and stuff, and I bet the story, if it actually becomes a thing tomorrow, and if it actually becomes a thing for Carney tomorrow, which I'm actually really curious about from your vantage point, if Carney's going to have to burn half a day and, frankly, fire two staff for this. But,
Zain: Carter, where do we want to start with this story? Because we've got the actual action. We've got the staffers in the bar. We've got the war room pushing it, and then we've got the future aspect of Carney having to burn a day, and then we've got the broader strategy question, which is how do you clean up a mess like this? How would Stephen Carter clean up a mess if this article came out on a Sunday morning for you? So where do you want to tackle it? And then I'll kind of process the other elements of it thereafter.
Carter: I think we should start in the war room. I mean, that's obviously where the idea started. Sure, sure.
Zain: Sure, sure.
Carter: You know, you and I are sitting around a war room and we're thinking to ourselves, how would we cause difficulties? And we come up with the idea that we're going to make some buttons.
Zain: and we're
Carter: Well, that's interesting. Yeah.
SPEAKER_01: that's
Zain: that's interesting. Yeah. Right.
Carter: Right. And we're going to put the buttons. I mean, this is after sweatshirts and hats basically saying, do you, you know, do you believe the polls have come out and it's caused trouble on the Polyev campaign? And to be
Zain: we're going to put the buttons.
Zain: And to be clear, these sweatshirts that you're talking about, those have not been credited to a liberal campaign. Those have been supporters
Carter: campaign. Those have been supporters
Zain: supporters
Zain: supporters of the conservative movement, so to speak. But the conservatives
Carter: But the conservatives are in the midst of pissing themselves. Correct. The conservatives are in the midst of hurting their own campaign. Yes.
Zain: Correct. The conservatives
Zain: Yes. And
Carter: And the liberal geniuses decide that what they're going to do is try and ramp that up by producing buttons that are going to go into this Manning Center conference.
Zain: We're going to produce these buttons. We're going to continue to sow the seeds of internal division and chaos and whatever. Why?
Carter: Why? Why?
Carter: Why? Internal division and chaos already exists. Corey Tanik is still taking down Jenny Byrne. We're still talking about it. why do you need to amplify we are still talking
Zain: we are still talking about we're
Carter: we're in the war room you and i and this would be my response don't get in the way of an opponent that is destroying themselves
Carter: right why would you do something this fucking stupid with two weeks left in the campaign okay
Carter: okay
Carter: okay um
Zain: um
Zain: um you and i are on the same page so i'm gonna ask ask a bigger question to you perhaps say something blasphemous from a campaign org perspective war
Zain: war rooms actually
SPEAKER_01: actually
Zain: actually
Zain: here i'm gonna gonna say the war
Zain: rooms at the very least are structured wrong and
Zain: war rooms are probably doing more harm than good today on campaigns fight me on this no i can't i've been i've seen maybe three to four war rooms of some of the fucking smartest campaign people ever that have either throttled way too hard on the aggressive so as the propositional message has not been able to get through and we've suffered as a result um and not by any sort of like they're just doing their gig and or and this i put this in the second category they're
Carter: no i can't i've
Zain: doing stuff that's so fucking inside baseball that the rapid response is so like it's so online it's so of a moment that most of the public hasn't actually understood what they're doing that they they overcompensate to the point that that they look like the assholes rather than the react they look like react the rather than the reactionary so my statement to you is i think at the very least we're structuring war rooms incorrectly either
SPEAKER_01: that they they
Zain: either with the wrong type of male bravado energy bullshit which you can argue on i think part of it is that yeah
SPEAKER_01: yeah and and or they're actually
Zain: and
Zain: actually war rooms in campaigns are not helpful like i actually starting to believe that outside of like the background media relation stuff of getting your stories out these things are not those
Zain: things are not helpful man yeah
Carter: yeah i think that if we took them and divided them into two and
Carter: say we're going to have a rapid response go all the way back to michael dacocas and the rapid response idea right
Carter: right go to rapid response that's all we're going to do is just rapid respond to media yeah
SPEAKER_01: yeah and then the
Carter: yeah and then the second half of the war room is
Carter: is going to be is just going to be handed over to the strategic types right
Carter: right which is the The rapid response making, you know, not rapid response to media, but making sure that, you
Carter: you know, the strategic decisions that are unfolding in front of you, the operational and tactical decisions that
Carter: that may have strategic implications. Those decisions are being made by
Carter: by the top echelon of the campaign because they got to be doing something right. Right. This is this this war room has
Carter: has outlived its day in in the in the political sphere. I totally agree with you. Not because we don't need to have, you know, combative stances, not because we don't need to agree to take on our opposition, but because there's no sense like they're not being staffed with the right people. And
Zain: to agree to
Carter: these war rooms are making things worse, not better. Make it about media. Make another room about, you know, this responding to things that have strategic implications. implications this i think i think fucking children be in charge you've
Zain: this i think i think fucking children
Zain: you've you've hit it on the head with the second part which is things that have strategic implications i think modern day war rooms even how we've structured these clapback twitter and instagram accounts right carney media is the liberal version of this um they and and the kamala hq was the democrat version of this and of course these are on both sides trump hq and and whatever polyevs one is called the only reason i'm not mentioning is because i don't have it at the tip of my tongue um but
SPEAKER_01: on both sides trump
Zain: the fact is that often
Zain: often often they're they're very good at clapping back but
Zain: often i think they're they're missing the strategic filter what
Zain: is actually valuable and and if if pierre poliev puts out a video with you know couple thousand views that's not blowing the world up on fire but then you respond to that right with your own version of it or andrew sheer does a in my opinion a cringe worthy ad about getting back with your ex at a bar having a beer and you do your clapback version funny cheeky and and maybe that's not a great example of the point I'm trying to make, but they're responding to everything. These accounts are so good. These people are so nimble. They're so online. They're so, so Gen Z. They're so with it that at some point that upside of being like everything the other side puts out, we squash back, may have a cost to it. And I'm not saying the button idea is a direct linkage to this, but I think it comes from that culture of like, oh, yeah, like they're actually like the people have sweatshirts that are doing this and then this is going on. And yes, that's a media story, but it's not something that people have already heard. There's not enough soak time. There's still more runway available for people to see the conservatives torching themselves. There's days left on that story because it hasn't gotten to the normal person. And these folks, rather than giving it the days, are quashing that by trying to ignite the situation or try to clap back way too quickly in some cases.
Carter: Well, why are we even bothering? I mean, what is it we're trying to win? Social media? does that matter anymore is social media a thing anymore that we need to win zane i don't think so i think that seems like these hq accounts
Zain: that seems like these hq accounts are designed to neutralize and or win organic social media that that seems to be their intent rather rather than rapid response of strategic uh or vulnerable items that that could actually hurt you and or that you could have opportunity for i think they are rapid response clapback machines to win the day on social or
Carter: to be their intent rather
SPEAKER_01: or
Zain: or
SPEAKER_01: or
Zain: or to win the hour on social like every hour it's almost like did we win this hour yeah
SPEAKER_01: the
Carter: the hour on social like
Carter: like
Carter: like every hour it's almost like
Carter: yeah and to what end is this is this where the decision is the the election is being decided i don't think so and the other we might sound like two old dudes
Zain: we might sound like two old dudes yelling at clouds i don't know we might be totally wrong about this i'm willing to concede that point as well we're
Carter: to concede that point as well we're
Carter: not i could be wrong about this i could be wrong about this this is
Zain: could be wrong about this i could be wrong about this this
Carter: is why we don't let you in this strategist seat very often you have to have 100 conviction in what you're saying and i'll tell you another thing the other group that you're trying to win over is the media i mean
Carter: mean the traditional media doesn't really even exist in the way that it once did and
Carter: and we're not seeing you know you don't have to win the media every single day you need to win the ground game every single day that's what you need to do and any day that takes you away from your ground message is a bad fucking day well
SPEAKER_01: and we're
Zain: well tell me this tell me this then like one of the reasons these war rooms are set up with the the two halves that you had which which was the strategic rapid response, and then the media relations, which is a very nice way of saying giving the media dirt so you don't have to air that laundry yourself. Giving them the sources, the background, the story, so that they, with their teams, right? And those teams used to be larger, broader, wider across the country, more folks. Now the media has less ability to investigate these pieces. But you would provide them this information. They would look at you skeptically. You would provide them more information, and you'd say there's a there there, and they would do the work because they would deem it newsworthy, and they would provide their own journalistic filter on it. Do
Zain: Do you feel like we're in a campaign world, Carter, that that matters anymore, how the story comes out? Because there could also be a case around how modern day campaign media relations is done, especially from the oppo side, which is, do you feel like we're in a new reality where I could just put this story out myself with my partisan tinge, and it might have just as much mileage as a long, lengthy investigative piece put out by the CBC or Global News, for example? I
Carter: think your hypothesis is bang on. I think that, you know, why would you bother to go through the media when you can just put your own story out? And that's probably how it's going to get covered anyways, right? You don't have to slide a brown envelope to a journalist anymore. You put out an accusatory tweet. I'm actually sincerely asking the question. You actually
Zain: I'm actually sincerely asking the question. You actually believe that? You actually believe that, eh? Oh,
Carter: yeah. I mean, what do you, I mean, you
Carter: you know, one of the best things, you know, one of the things I say to my clients all the time is if you want to make sure that a story doesn't get covered, write a news release, right? Right. Like if you want to make sure that it gets absolutely buried, try and slide a brown envelope across to a journalist today. Journalists are on Twitter. They're on, you know, they're finding their stuff, but they're not they're not taking brown envelopes from the campaigns the way they once did. You know, there's no sitting in a bar chatting about a story. Instead, they're sitting in a bar and overhearing a story because the story doesn't come from the mouths of the of the war room. They know they're being spun.
SPEAKER_01: the story doesn't
Carter: And sometimes the spin is good enough that they'll follow it. it but you're
Carter: you're better off just to put out the tweet or put out the story put out the you
Carter: you know the the your own version of it that's
Carter: that's crafted for your own audience and then you
Carter: you know do it through a video do it through whatever i
Carter: mean you don't have to uh show up and uh buy the journalist a beer anymore and say have i've got a story for you got you a little lead you
Carter: you know that that's not how that's not how the world is working so
Zain: let's
Zain: talk about the journalistic angle on here I find that interesting. The
Carter: that interesting.
Zain: two staffers in a bar, it is so cliche. We
Zain: We hear about this all the time, especially in the Ottawa context or, you know, in our more localized regional sense, the Edmonton ledge context, you know, be careful where you're speaking. And here they are, the staffers, like right next to a journalist, and almost like they wanted them to hear almost what this article implies, at least from my reading.
Zain: up with that, Carter? Like, like, do you feel like they're, this is like, I could easily tie this back to a simple liberal arrogance thing that these people should just have shut the fuck up right like you yeah you agree like they shouldn't have done it shut
Zain: shut the fuck up part a they shouldn't have said anything shut the fuck up part b right
Carter: right um
Zain: right um together it equals just shut the fuck don't don't like sometimes you guys cory would say not communicating not doing something is always a strategic choice available to you and
Zain: and in this
SPEAKER_01: this case
Zain: case that should have been the path that that they they would would have taken to hindsight us
SPEAKER_01: case that should
Zain: us sitting here um
Zain: um criticizing is easy um
Zain: um but we did talk about the culture piece and what could motivate something like this in terms of what you're trying to win what you're trying to do um do
Zain: these two folks have to lose their job carter because i almost want to go to the cleanup here they
Zain: were they does does mark carney and the campaign to minimize and
Zain: to minimize the burn to minimize where they're at even like contextualizes for me we head into a monday where wednesday's a debate i'm not saying it's a down week because because Pierre is going to have to do stuff. So he's going to be assertive this week, one would imagine. Carney's probably going to try to do as much as he can of PM time, but he's already getting a
Zain: fair bit of criticism for it from the media, from other parties, etc. He still may end up doing it. We'll see what his schedule looks like for Monday, Tuesday. How
Zain: do the liberals handle this? If Stephen Carter was responsible, how would you have handled this? Would this have been tonight, both these people are gone, so Carney doesn't face any questions about this, and we can move on? Or what are you doing here, here carter yeah
Carter: yeah i probably would have fired them before they got home from the bar
Carter: um this is you
Carter: know i've i've been overheard in bars and things like that but i'm generally speaking not um
Carter: um bragging about my ne'er-do-well activities um you use the podcast for that
Zain: um you use the podcast for that i
Carter: i have a podcast for that no i mean people have heard me talking to someone you know we'll be having a conversation with a donor or potential client or a potential uh candidate or something like that and you can going to be overheard um
Zain: for
Zain: no i
SPEAKER_01: i mean
Carter: um that
Carter: that happens occasionally it happens to me more frequently because i have a podcast and people recognize my voice and that's weird um but that
Zain: that's weird um
Carter: that that is uh that's part of the joy of it i mean you know you're going to be overheard so you you have to talk in some codes and you have to make sure that your mouths are shut this is ridiculous to me that you would go to a you would go to the manning center event you would do something you know you're dirty dirty deed done dirt cheap.
Carter: And then
Carter: then you would come out of it and brag about it in a bar. Like if you're going to do a dirty deed, you shouldn't shut the fuck up. That's rule number one, right? We've done stuff. We've done things. We don't talk about them afterwards. We keep them to ourselves. We keep them for, you know, later in our books when we're going to be, you know, writing something at 75 years old. This isn't something that comes out during the campaign. It's just, it's fucking lunacy and it's amateur hour. And those two amateurs should have their ass handed to them.
Zain: So here's a liberal spokesperson, Kevin Lemke.
Zain: I hope I'm pronouncing that correctly. He said the party has conducted a review of the matter and that leader Mark Carney has made it clear that, quote, this does not fit in his commitment to a serious and positive discourse.
Zain: That's what the article is reporting. You feel like they're going to have to be let go? Like, how does Carney minimize this tomorrow?
Zain: tomorrow? What would you have suggested? What would you suggest to him right now?
Carter: you suggest to him right now?
Carter: Tomorrow's too late. You
Carter: got to do everything proactively. Otherwise, you're going to be dealing with a story. If the media make you fire them, then all of a sudden, that's the story, right? Yeah.
Zain: Yeah.
Carter: So you either fire them beforehand or you ride and die with them. And
Carter: And it sounds like they're going to ride and die. The Liberal Party said
Zain: The Liberal Party said that they regrettably got carried away and that they were poking fun. And they very well may have been. i just don't know if that's the translation that's bullshit they're
Carter: that's bullshit they're
Carter: they're not poking fun they're trying to create havoc and
Carter: and that havoc is great you should totally create havoc with your opposition it's just that you got caught you got there's certain rules don't
Zain: it's just that you got caught you got there's certain
Carter: don't get caught and don't do certain things that are just stupid yeah and this is like it's like going and taking someone's signs down it's also contextual it's
Zain: don't
Zain: yeah and this is like
Zain: and taking someone's
Zain: it's also contextual it's also contextual right yeah you're doing well you're heading into a week where the other guy has to over perform significantly in order to catch up up to your lead. Put this into context. And the fact that the, you know, do you believe the poll story that the other side is trying to defend from their own side has not yet caught the attention of the mainstream. There's no reason for you to, you know, push that. It is being pushed. It just is taking its soak time, as we often say
Carter: yeah you're
Zain: say to the public, Carter. Anything else on here that you want to talk about? Do you feel like this? Actually, one more question for you.
Zain: Carney Kearney was slow to get rid of Paul Chang. Could this actually be another teachable moment but for Kearney? Like, he's new to this game. He's been doing it for 95 fucking days at this point. I think he's doing, for
Zain: someone who's doing it for 95 days, like, I'm impressed. But, like, you know, I've already been on a bit of a, like, this is where I'm at with Mark Kearney. But, but, but, people
Zain: were telling Mark Kearney that, fuck, man, you should have fired Paul Chang a long time ago. What the hell are you doing? Is
Carter: are you doing?
Zain: this another teachable moment? And if not, what's different about it?
Carter: I mean, this is a teachable moment. This should be teaching the entire team how to behave during a campaign. So my view is this should be very
Carter: very simple,
Carter: simple, and it shouldn't even have to go to the leader. Andrew Bevan, who's the leader of the – or is running the campaign, should just simply say, you're done. Boom. Out the door you go. I
SPEAKER_01: you're
Zain: you're done. Boom. Out
Zain: I wonder if one of the reasons they're not making a call is because some of these folks might not necessarily be 20-year-old, 25-year-old staffers, Carter. And this is at this point, like, who knows? But, like, there is a possibility that these folks are
Zain: are more senior or have, you know, more sort of standing within the cabinet. All the more reason to
Carter: standing within the cabinet. All the more reason to say goodbye. Yeah,
Zain: Yeah, that's interesting. That's interesting. If it's
Carter: that's interesting. That's interesting. If it's someone who should know better. It's a know
Zain: It's a know-better situation, I hear. Right?
Carter: hear. Right? Then you got to go. and
Carter: and you know you can show up again later but you're going to be gone for the next two weeks anyways can
Zain: i ask you one question kind of going back to the broader theme of war rooms being structured incorrectly or frankly just being so in the bubble of a campaign how do you allow how would stephen carter culture
Zain: culture a campaign to allow outside oxygen in which
Zain: which is to say that it's not which is to say that like how do you ensure that in a 35 day 38 day 50 day pressure cooker that That people aren't just thinking that every comma, every tweet, everything that the other side said, every fucking race car video or Andrew Scheer video at a bar is going to blow up your lead. Because people react that way, right? Everyone is, you told me this. I was reacting this way on a campaign and you said you're Bambi on ice. You've got no ability to tell what is good, what is not, what is important, what is not. And I was complaining to you about, you know, fucking Carter, if we don't have these signs printed here for this particular sign, we're not going to win the campaign. And you're like, that's not going to be it.
SPEAKER_01: say that it's not
Carter: Everyone
Zain: But these people, to
Zain: to their credit and perhaps to their organizational detriment, are primed to think that way. That's their job. Their job is to live 20 hours at a time to clap back and think that the other side, what they said is the most important thing that could ruin the campaign.
Carter: How
Zain: How would you let outside oxygen in so that they have a sense of perspective? It's a very long way for me to ask that question. But what would Carter, what would you do to allow your War Room team to have perspective? Or would you say, you know what, maybe perspective is not what that group needs?
Carter: How would
Carter: to allow your
Carter: The best, well, you don't need that group to have it, but you need the leadership of that group to have it. I mean, those phone calls that you and I used to do when you were in the midst of various campaigns, that's what you need, right? You're in charge. You don't need your
Zain: phone calls
SPEAKER_01: that's
SPEAKER_01: You're in charge.
Zain: charge.
Carter: your kids doing that, right? The
Carter: The kids should live it, breathe it, feel it for 24-7, right? So
Zain: So you'd be fine with them thinking everything is 11 on the scale?
Carter: Absolutely. absolutely you throw yourself into it throw yourself into the meat grinder you're 20 25 years old you're you're you're you're dumb as fuck and you just you just you
Zain: throw yourself
Carter: you you you
Carter: you just throw yourself into it i love it go for it right but
Carter: but it's the senior leadership that put the stamp of approval on everything and
Zain: but it's the senior leadership
Carter: and that's senior leadership because this in two kids that decided to make some buttons right
Carter: right this
Carter: this is a war room that decided to send two kids out with some buttons and
Carter: and that's it seems
Zain: that's it seems that way that's correct yes from the reporting i don't
Carter: yes from the reporting i don't think that there's enough telephone calls being made i
Carter: i don't think there's enough telephone calls being made across the country saying hey how are things actually going up there right
Carter: right tell me your stories tell me what's actually going on if
Carter: if they were to call into calgary
SPEAKER_01: if they were to
Carter: calgary center calgary confederation calgary skyview calgary
Carter: calgary mcknight they would get a story if
Carter: if they called into the lower mainland of british columbia they get a story and maybe that would start to um
Carter: um temper their actions because the actions to this weekend only hurt they
Carter: they did not help yeah
Zain: yeah no i i tend to agree with you um any
Zain: fuckery for pierre poliev how does he how does he inflict maximum pain on team carney with this this and and let me just add a comment to this this and a a not
Carter: this
Carter: this and and
Zain: wide scale reported but definitely reported in a few places tightening of the polls the tightening of the polls plus this is there a there there for pierre poliev yeah
Carter: tightening of the
Carter: yeah i would demand an apology from uh mark carney in the debates oh
Zain: you'd wait till the debates i'd
Carter: i'd wait to the debates and i'd say um you know there's you don't you don't
Zain: debates and i'd say um
Zain: there's you don't you don't try to burn monday or tuesday on this you wait till wednesday or probably you probably wait till thursday thursday which is english by the way yeah french yeah you
Carter: probably you probably wait till thursday
Carter: which is english
Carter: yeah french yeah
Carter: you you come in and you You say you
Carter: want to behave in the highest possible moral standards, but your team doesn't,
Carter: right? So I'd like an apology right now for the two staff people that went into a conference and tried to do dishonest actions that didn't have anything behind them except malfeasance.
Carter: why i want an apology to all canadians to my team to all canadians
Zain: all canadians walk me through this though walk me through this let's let's i like this i like this carney
Zain: apologizes is there a trap door that he doesn't see there with an apology trap door what's the trap door on the apology all
Carter: there with an apology trap door what's the trap door on the apology all of
Carter: of a sudden now mark carney can't be trusted mark
Carter: carney can't be trusted because more does mark just look like a reasonable
Zain: more does mark just look like a reasonable person being like yep that was wrong none despair what we want to do i apologize let's move on ah
Carter: ah the days the days of ralph klein are long behind us my friend I
Zain: I don't think that
Carter: I don't think that we can see an apology without having a see I told you he was dishonest
Carter: right
Carter: you don't think that backfires on Pierre
Zain: you don't think that backfires on Pierre within this sort of cultural moment we might be living in no I don't think so I think he's going
Carter: I don't think so I think he's going to demand an apology on Thursday before
Zain: before we that's a good prediction I actually like the strategy in terms of what you're suggesting in terms of another area that he hits because trust is what they're trying to go after with the tax havens and such. I'm going to throw out a statement to you. Monday, Tuesday, if the trend that Ipsos and I believe Abacus, don't quote me on this, are reporting that the polls are tightening a bit, that that eight-point lead is turning into five, four, three, right? Let's say that replicates a few other polls that come onto our desks in the next 48 hours. Here's my strategic statement for you to agree or disagree with. The
Zain: liberals are not all that freaked out.
Zain: That's the statement. and the reason they're not all that freaked out is two points number one they
SPEAKER_01: the statement. and the reason
Zain: can still get a majority with the four-point lead and number two pole tightening and i think this is the central point that i want to kind of get your take on pole tightening for them is not bad because it ensures that the ndp maximize their floor means
Zain: that like and i guess that's a poor way of saying it that the ndp surely
Carter: that the ndp surely hit
Zain: surely hit their floor and
Zain: and
Carter: and i don't actually and between
Zain: i don't actually and between you and i i don't know what what that floor is man i i was saying historically it's like 12 we've seen polling that's at eight and a half and seven and a half i
SPEAKER_01: and seven and a half i
Zain: don't know if it's lower than that but it could be it could be like so poll tightening if you're in the central liberal campaign right now yeah you're a bit nervous about it and the other guy was gonna have a week but this now fundamentally guarantees to you that
Zain: the ndp vote is coming over especially if jugmeet's giving them permission like he kind did with his statement on friday uh to say elect as many of us sort of thing not necessarily acknowledging that he's trying to form government do
Zain: do you agree with my my broader sort of soup of a statement or no well
SPEAKER_01: do you
Carter: you agree with my
Carter: first of all i i would add a third and maybe this is part of your first they can form a majority they never believed the polls anyways no
Carter: one was thinking that ipsos was 100 right right ipsos or i'm sorry ecos was crazy ecos was still a dozen
Zain: right ipsos
Zain: ecos was still a dozen ipsos was in the middle It's like Leger was the six-ish point. I
Carter: It's
Zain: I
Carter: I
Zain: I don't
Carter: don't think anybody in the Liberal team thought that the polls were correct. I think that everybody expected a Titan, and I think that everybody thought, you know, this bump is as artificial as Pierre Polyev's bump. So the Canadian people are going to decide on the 28th, and until then, the polls are going to move three, four, six points, and that's okay. OK, right
Zain: anybody
SPEAKER_01: anybody in the Liberal team thought
Carter: right now, I think the second part of your assessment that the NDP floor may be realized, you know, a brand new floor will be established. Much
Zain: Much better way of saying it. That's right. Well,
Carter: That's right. Well, because I'm a professional. No, you are. You are. Yeah. But I think that the the the new floor that's going to be established for the NDP is going to be really bad. and it will enable the the efficient already efficient liberal vote to continue to be efficient um like when you're starting to look at what's going to happen in quebec what's happening across ontario to the to the new democrats what's happening to in british columbia to the new democrats um this is this is a particularly negative time to be a new democratic supporter supporter in uh in canada at the federal yeah
Zain: No, you are. You are. Yeah.
Zain: federal yeah federal indie supporter yeah
Zain: this this election obviously shouldn't end with a carney win and or a majority it's really going to be most people are going to focus all eyes on how did pierre lose the guy with the lead for two years and inevitability written on his forehead and his hoodie um how did this guy fuck it up but really you could argue he He hasn't fucked anything up.
Zain: He's kept 38% of support, which should have a conservative
Zain: conservative thumping.
Zain: The
Zain: fact is that the NDP, which hovers at 20, 18 to 20, 18 to 25, just couldn't,
Zain: just couldn't and may have realized a brand new floor. I think the real case study here will be the New Democrats should this end up. And I'm not to project anything because I want to talk about the debates, but there's
Carter: project anything
Zain: there's a there there, of course. Yeah,
Carter: there's a there there,
Carter: Yeah, I mean, you know what? We've talked many, many times on the show about the blue-orange switch, right?
Carter: right? Pierre Polyev has not been able to realize any of this NDP collapse. collapse
Carter: well no well to be clear he may have engineered
Zain: well no well to
Zain: to be clear he may have engineered part of the ndp collapse he spent millions of dollars hundreds of thousands at least on trying to get tell people to jugmeet singh's a fucking loser that all he's in it for is his pension this was six months ago right now six months ago um they they thought that was going to be their principal enemy in
SPEAKER_01: months ago um
Carter: um
Zain: in some ways they anticipated being
Carter: they anticipated being able to pick up some of that ndp of course they
Zain: of course they did they because orange blue to your point was going to be part was a core part of their strategy and very well maybe But
Carter: they
Carter: they
Carter: because orange blue to your
Carter: and very well maybe
Zain: let me ask you this strategic question, and then
Carter: let me ask you
Zain: we'll get to the debates.
Zain: Anything in your mind, and I may have asked you a version of this a couple weeks ago, but I'm wondering, as you've kind of gone through the world, consumed this news scene where we're at, is there anything in your mind that if you were whispering to the conservatives that you'd say, here's something you guys could try to help Jagmeet? Because you need him to not be at his floor. You need him to be like four times it. Now, I'm not saying Stephen Carter come up with a strategy that gets Jagmeet Singh back to 16 to 20 percent. However, Carter, do you have anything that that could help the
Zain: conservatives help the New Democrats? Because that's where we're at right now. The liberals have no incentive to do so. The conservatives have the entire incentive
Zain: incentive of the entire world to do so. Is
Zain: there anything they could do unaided
Zain: unaided and
Zain: and unsolicited by the New Democrats? Like, this is so funny, right? Unaided, unsolicited, not wanted because no New Democrat at their core will want Pierre will probably have to form government, but will they want a few more seats for themselves? They might take that. They might take that trade with the devil. So is there anything that you could do as a conservative right now to help your buddy Jagmeet Singh, who you need to be your best friend, and you need to be your best friend at the top of his game for the next two weeks?
Carter: If you look at the NDP collapse, a large number of them are still going blue.
Carter: There's not a lot that you can do.
Zain: do. Yeah, you just need a lot more of them to go Go orange and stay orange. That's your issue. I mean, the ones that are coming to you, you'll take. But the ones that are going red, which is the massive bleed out, right? Like, to be clear, the smaller of the two bleed outs is the orange blue. The massive bleed out, which is going to perhaps lead to a historic floor, is to team red.
Carter: do.
SPEAKER_01: and stay orange. That's your issue. I mean, the ones
Carter: Yeah, I just think that there's nothing that they can do except go after the most fluid vote.
Carter: And the most fluid vote is the vote that's gone to the liberals.
Carter: that's where they actually need to focus their attention is on the vote that went to the Liberals, not the vote that remains with
Carter: with the NDP or that has escaped the NDP.
Carter: They need to win more votes that went to the Liberals.
Carter: And that,
Carter: that, to me, is the only play that they have. They don't have... They
Zain: They don't have a credible play. There's no fuckery
Carter: play. There's no fuckery around with the NDP. None of that's going to work.
Zain: Let's talk about the debates. Oh, okay. How do you want to do this? Talk about the goals of each folks, each person. I don't want to split them in English and French, unless you feel like there is a reasonable sort of... I don't think there's different
Carter: Oh, okay. How
Carter: a reasonable sort of... I don't think there's different goals in English and French. I think both the goals should be the same. And that's one of the things that I would say is don't approach the English debate and the French debate as different. Don't
Carter: Don't
Zain: Don't approach French as batting practice, which sometimes candidates do, by the way. We have noticed that, that they hold back on their lines and they give the full version of it. I mean, you don't speak French, I don't speak French, but we've kind of seen these in subtitles and such and with analysis that they hold back. They often hold back. They give a version of the line in
Carter: Don't approach French as
Carter: noticed that,
SPEAKER_01: analysis that
Zain: French, but that they're just batting practice for Thursday night or the main event sort of thing. So you're saying don't do that.
Carter: So you're saying
SPEAKER_01: saying don't
Carter: don't
Carter: They've got to go into this, especially with the liberal rise in Quebec. I mean, Pierre
Carter: Pierre Polyev has
Carter: has to look at that and say there's a natural advantage. I must go into this the same way that I'm going into the English language. Like everything is to play for.
Carter: Everything is on the table. This
Carter: This is the ballgame. And
Carter: And Pierre Polyev, frankly, is fighting for his political life. um
Carter: um he uh
Carter: uh he has to hit the ball out of the park on on thursday or wednesday and thursday both equally he
Carter: he has to be able to showcase that he can be the prime minister for english
Carter: -speaking canada as well as francophone canada and i think that that's the same for mark carney mark
Carter: mark carney needs to be able to show that his performance in in french can
Carter: can be as dominant as
Carter: as has his performance in English. And I would be saying to both,
Carter: you know, I would be, if
Carter: if I was coaching Carney, what
Carter: what I'd be saying to Carney is don't
Carter: don't try and hit the ball out of the park.
Carter: All you have to do is show that you are 100% competent in both languages. So that doesn't mean catching
Carter: catching
Carter: Pierre Polyev. It doesn't mean having a great line that makes Pierre Polyev look bad. You know, A tie is as good as a win for Mark Carney. He doesn't need to knock it out of the park.
Zain: need to
Zain: And so he leans into authenticity. Boring, just methodical. I've got three points on this, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3. He's going to have to watch the clock a bit, right? And his pressers, that's one thing he doesn't have to compete against is that he can give very long, drawn-out, technocratic answers. And some would yell at me, be like, he's not a technocrat. I think he is. Anyways, he would give these sort of answers. He had to watch the clock a bit so that the speed is going to be important. But you'd say be yourself. There's nothing really, you don't need, yeah.
SPEAKER_01: really, you don't need,
Zain: yeah. And his lines, he can deliver a few lines if he needs to. But he doesn't
Carter: But he doesn't have to catch Pierre. He can have a scripted line that makes him look good.
Zain: have a
Carter: That's great. Well, here's the question. Totally do that. Don't do anything that's going to try and catch Pierre.
Zain: That's great. Well, here's the question.
Zain: Don't do anything
Carter: Focus on yourself.
Zain: Be yourself. It's a note card you've got written on the Kearney podium. Are
Zain: Are you producing two of those and giving one to Pierre as well?
Carter: Well, Pierre, I'm actually going to say be human.
Carter: Try and smile like a human being. Try and approach this like a human. One of the things that we have a hard time with Pierre is we don't find him relatable, right? So he's not relatable. And because of that, he's not getting the uplift that he needs across the country. both Wednesday and Thursday he's got to be the
SPEAKER_01: Try and smile like
Carter: the most relatable version of Pierre Poliev that's an insanely high bar
Zain: that's an insanely high bar and I don't mean that as an insult to him but you're saying let me interrupt you it is but let me interrupt you there you're saying if Pierre Poliev has a pandemic style dressing down of Mark Carney like that video that circulates where Carney's kind of coming to committee I forget which committee you might be able to tell me Carter right but you know what i'm alluding to and i suspect our listeners do too if he tries that prosecutorial
Carter: you're saying let
SPEAKER_01: what i'm alluding
SPEAKER_01: alluding to and i suspect
Zain: dressing down of carney is
Zain: that a vibe that catches on in your mind is that a thing he should do why
Carter: that a thing he should do why
Zain: why not why not 30
Carter: why not why not 30 he solidifies 35 of his 37 percent fuck
Carter: that's
Zain: that's a high number like there is a theory that i have that that you know he he
Zain: could just do this for the base that sounds insane but he could just do this debate for the base good
Carter: for him if he does the debate for the the basement you disagree i
Zain: basement you disagree i know i i'm trying to create a strategy a strategic pathway for and it seems like he might win the
Carter: i'm
Carter: i'm trying to
Carter: for and it seems like he might win the most flexible voters he has to win the ones that move to the liberals i
Zain: he has to win the
Zain: understand what you're saying i understand totally what you're saying i feel like that could be a
Zain: a high wire act that goes terribly
Zain: for him but you're saying he has no other choice i
Carter: mean i've seen the pictures of his smiles i've seen the pictures no you've of
Zain: no you've of the handshake attempts and the amazing memes that saying you know day six trying to smile like Like, yeah, no, it's not a great look. It's a work in progress. Just as much as Carney's a work in progress as a political machine as
Zain: as a whole,
Zain: Pierre, on
Zain: some of these elements... Pierre has never wanted to appear here.
Carter: some of these elements... Pierre has never wanted to appear here. No, and frankly,
Zain: here. No,
SPEAKER_01: No, and
Zain: and frankly, he's never needed it. He's
SPEAKER_01: frankly,
Carter: frankly, he's
Zain: He's never needed friendships. He never needed Doug Ford. He never needed swing voters. He never needed jack shit because the liberals were in the toilet. The NDP were doing just fine, humming along at 20%. Now this guy who's got the party at a historical high in the polls of 38 needs fucking 42 how and that sounds like a small number and it is a small number so let's not forget this race is not over but it is like those final four points for pierre poliev are
Zain: so hard to get right
Zain: i'm going to be so hard to get in order to win an election that he might just decide right that he is going to run this race to solidify 38 which is a close
Zain: close to a historic high for the conservatives and hope that the carney vote is soft and do whatever he can to make sure the the Carney vote is soft. Am I nuts?
Carter: Yeah, you're nuts. Yeah, I might be. I'm just trying to think of a viable
Zain: Yeah, I might be. I'm just trying to think of a viable pathway for him and that is actually doable
Zain: doable for him because I'm not sure a
Zain: a version that isn't Pierre Polyev trying to dress down Carney is what we're A, going to see, and B, is going to be something he can execute upon.
Carter: is what
Carter: Let's be clear. I think you're right. I
Carter: think he's going to do that.
Zain: think he's going
Carter: I think he's going to come out there, and Jenny Byrne and Pierre Polyev are working on a strategy right now that says, we were right six months ago let's not fuck around and try and be something new now
Zain: now let's we're going to go back
Carter: now let's
Carter: we're going to go back to six months when we were winning this thing by a landslide and i'm going to produce the very best of that and canada god damn it is going to eat their vegetables and they're going to like this because this is what they need they
Carter: they need pierre polyev and his fiscal conservatism and all of his assholery he they need it right they
Zain: right they need they They need the pit bull. They need him. You
Carter: him.
Zain: think that is what he's going to do, hey? He's going to go full on Pierre Polyev. He's going to actually take the be yourself card and say, that is my lesson too. Even though, you know. And then
Carter: And then he's going to attack Carney and he's going to attack Carney and he's going to attack Carney. How far is he going to go?
Zain: How far is he going to go? Here's what I'm interested. There's the lane of attack that seems, I shouldn't say, I don't want to be the judge and jury on reasonable, but let me just use those terms because I can't think of a better one. the reasonable tax haven lack of experience another fourth year term like fine then there's like the second order effect of like what right-wing media circulates around oh
Carter: yeah right
Zain: right like the whole epstein shit like the canada proud stuff does he go there i'm curious if that this is a moment does he go with unfact-checked new fresh oppo myth rumor stuff which we by the way we have seen in debates in the past right people have thrown out shit that no one has heard before at a debate stage no one understands the context the moderator can't fact check it and they try to wage an attack from right field that that the person wasn't even expecting me like what the fuck is this right do we feel like he's going to go that level if you feel like i'm correct that pierre is going to be pierre how pierre or
Carter: canada
SPEAKER_01: canada
Carter: canada
SPEAKER_01: by the
Zain: or how much pierre are we going to see i
Carter: don't think he goes that far i don't think he goes uh true north on this or or counter
Zain: he goes uh true
SPEAKER_01: true
Carter: counter signal uh
Carter: uh right i I think he goes, you
SPEAKER_01: right i
Carter: know, as
Carter: far as possible, but it's mostly his attitude that,
Carter: you know, that
Carter: that comes, that shines. And that attitude is going to be a negative one.
Zain: This is going to be fascinating to watch this week. Talk to me about Jagmeet Singh here. Yeah, it's going to be great.
Carter: Jagmeet Singh here. Yeah, it's going to be great.
Zain: Talk to me about Jagmeet Singh very quickly.
Zain: Who? Well,
Carter: Who?
SPEAKER_01: Who? Well,
Zain: you know, who is right in some ways, but also just like the guy who's potentially making this election for Carney. um there
SPEAKER_01: just
Zain: is moral victory for the ndp should you want it in terms of preventing pierre paulia from forming government by their you know historic lows but but but jamie
Zain: jamie almost acknowledged on friday that they're not going to form government that when you elect a lot of us good shit gets done and
Zain: and there's two ways of reading that that
Zain: that um it's
Zain: it's another frame it's another frame at saying the same thing yeah
Carter: yeah right
Zain: right the other way to read it is we recommend
Carter: other way to read it is we recommend that he do too but
Zain: the other Because he's left it so open-ended,
Carter: the other
Carter: the
Zain: the other way to read it, which is the way I've read it, is it gives people permission to vote for the liberals, right?
Zain: I'm not sure.
Zain: It almost implies – what was not said is we're not going to form – that part, the crucial part that we're not going to form government, that when you elect a lot of us, when you elect some of us, good things get done, almost gives liberals permission. permission it almost gives folks permission to vote for the liberals especially in ridings that that that's going to matter uh and with poll tightening i think so my question for you is does jagmeet singh need to clean that up you
Zain: you might disagree and say no he does not need to clean that up
Zain: and and if so what and if not what does jagmeet singh need to add as a next layer here of showcasing what that looks like how that works does he need to lead into one message around all the cares health, denta, pharma, child, we got this done. This is the workers. Does he need to lean into here's the 30 ridings that you need to vote for us in? Does he need to lead into an attack line? And does he spend his entire time attacking?
Zain: Give me a sense of because Jagmeet Singh out of most folks, I think has the greatest amount of optionality heading into Wednesday, Thursday, right? You could think of it as the narrowest task survive, but the greatest amount of optionality in terms of how to survive. So I'm curious where your head's at with with him as As we round up, I
Carter: we round up,
Carter: I don't think that he can differentiate between the Calgary Confederation and the Burnaby Central. Right. Like what's the point?
Zain: what's the point? What's the point you're trying to make there? Just so people understand what I'm trying
Carter: understand what I'm trying to what I'm trying to get across is he can't say it's
Carter: it's OK to lend your vote to Corey
Carter: Corey Hogan. Right.
SPEAKER_01: Corey Hogan. Right.
Carter: In Calgary Confederation. But I really need your vote in Burnaby.
SPEAKER_01: In
Carter: Like it's just impossible for him to differentiate those two things. he can't come out and say these are the 30 ridings where i really need you um i think that he should you
Carter: know take his limited resources and do that but you can't say it in the debates on wednesday thursday just can't can
Carter: can you say it anywhere
Zain: anywhere can
Carter: can
Zain: can
Carter: you say it anywhere um or
Zain: or is it just something the ground does i'm a believer you can say it's just the game i'm a believer that if that's if that's where he's headed that
Carter: believer you can say it's just the game i'm a believer that if that's if
Zain: i think he'd be well suited to say it i
Zain: don't think you can say it i I think people would respect the honesty. I
Carter: don't think you can say it i
Carter: don't think so. I think he'd get fucked. I mean, he's going to be fucked anyways. You think it'd be Kathleen
Zain: to be fucked anyways.
Zain: You think it'd be Kathleen Wynne style?
Zain: Like, you would have never done Kathleen Wynne as Kathleen Wynne did that moment, which, to remind our viewers, was she came out about two weeks before the election and said, we're not going to win this thing.
Zain: We're not going to win this thing.
Carter: We're not going to win this thing.
Zain: You don't remember that? That was a campaign in which Ford
Zain: won his majority.
Zain: Andrew Horvath became leader of the opposition. And Wynne came out in a presser and said, we're not going to win this thing.
Carter: Wynne came out
SPEAKER_01: out
Zain: um but then the second part of his elect as many of us as as you can sort of thing and they
Zain: got clobbered they didn't win the thing
Zain: um yeah
Carter: i
SPEAKER_01: i
Carter: i don't think that
SPEAKER_01: that that
Carter: that i think strategy i
Zain: i think strategy i
Carter: i don't think that playing pretending that you're going to form government is the way to go i
Zain: do not think he seems to have given up on that jc so he seems to have at least pivoted a bit so to be a bit more um
Carter: think he seems to have given up
Carter: so
SPEAKER_01: so
Carter: so he
Zain: truthful to the matter sure but also just seem more honest about stakes chances opportunity action what they're doing but
Carter: opportunity
Carter: i also don't think that they need to produce a list of 26 writings that they're going to win okay
Zain: so then okay if that that's what they have
Carter: that's what they have in in their in their little i've been i've
Zain: i've been i've been advocating for that for for a while but like sure let's say he doesn't do that at debates what does he do at the debates and let's finish it off on this what he does what you said what
Carter: does what you said what and what we've said before he emphasizes the cares and that the only way you
Zain: what we've said
Zain: and that
Carter: you know this is most likely going to come down to a more minority situation says chugmeat saying and the only way to make sure that the government of the day puts you first is to elect enough NDP members of parliament that we can hold them to account. Last
Zain: question. Mark Carney, does he ask for a majority?
Carter: Carney,
SPEAKER_01: Carney,
Carter: does
Carter: never asks for anything. He tells. He says that his government, regardless of what happens, he is always going to put the people of Canada first. He's not forecasting. He's not in the business of forecasting the results. He knows how this is won. you
Zain: He tells.
Carter: win by putting the best candidates forward he believes he does he has the best candidates he believes he has the best ideas he believes he has the best and the chips fall where they may we
Zain: are going to leave the canadians for
Carter: are going to leave the canadians for that yeah
Carter: yeah and
Zain: and i thank you steven carter we're going to leave it there that's a wrap on episode 1861 of the strategist my name is zane velji with me as always steven carter and absent is one cory hogan knocking at the doors at 10 p.m at night that's That's how desperate he is to win, I've heard. I
Carter: I think he's taking brochures. I'll be honest.
Zain: I feel like that's what he does. I believe it is. You think he's taking brochures out of mailboxes?
Carter: I believe it is. You
Carter: Yeah, probably his own.
Zain: his own. Are you attesting to that? He didn't like the brochure. Oh, he didn't like the brochure. What a twist. And we'll see you next time.
Carter: attesting to that? He didn't like the brochure. Oh, he didn't like the brochure. What a
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