Transcript
Zain
0:01
This is a strategist episode 1861. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Stephen Carter and no one else. It's just you and I, Carter.
Zain
0:09
Although we did, we did, we were out. We were out to support our boy the other day. We did a
Zain
0:17
To a smattering of applause. And we should have, you know, here's what we should have done.
Zain
0:21
We should have asked people ahead of time if they heard the podcast before. That would have actually been a really good filtration
Carter
0:28
You weren't paying attention. i literally did yeah
Zain
0:31
yeah i guess i guess you did and then we did we did nothing with the results though i guess that's what i'm trying to say we
Carter
0:36
we ignored as we always do we we
Zain
0:39
we ignore the split room
Zain
0:40
folks who had not heard the podcast and then they're like well why are these two guys randomly showing up and taking shit on the candidate yeah
Carter
0:50
well i mean we had the best job of the whole campaign here's
Zain
0:53
here's here's here's the fun part that episode if we can call all of that is
Zain
1:00
Now, we have no intention of releasing it because
Zain
1:03
because I don't know if we've helped or hurt the candidate, Carter.
Carter
1:06
I think we can release it after he's elected. I
Zain
1:08
I feel like that is absolutely fair.
Zain
1:11
Yeah. Before he's elected, I'm not sure.
Carter
1:15
sure if we helped.
Carter
1:15
Yeah, I think that after he's elected... I'm not sure if we helped.
Carter
1:17
Yeah, after he's elected, maybe we could keep him from getting a cabinet position.
Zain
1:22
That's true. We could hold it as leverage. That's actually really good. good we could do a we could do a patreon jump ball with it um exactly we
Zain
1:28
we could we could sell it to the patrons and or the listeners to say how badly do you not want cory to get a cabinet seat exactly
Zain
1:36
that's good and uh all
Zain
1:37
all proceeds go to us yeah
Carter
1:39
yeah all proceeds go
Zain
1:39
go to us yeah yeah you carter yeah it's like you're miles ahead i know it's late for you but it's your miles ahead
Carter
1:46
i'm tired i'm tired holy smokes i was at the campaign office all day today what
Zain
1:50
you doing and you're planting buttons at different campaign offices?
Carter
1:54
I was going into Jeremy Nixon's campaign and
Zain
1:57
Stop the steal buttons.
Carter
1:59
Stop the steal, yeah. Jenny Byrne crossed out and Corey Tniak underneath. Okay,
Zain
2:04
Okay, can we talk about this? Let's just get into this because I wanted to talk about a preview for later this week, Wednesday, Thursday, French and English debates respectively. But do
Zain
2:14
do we have our first gate of
Zain
2:16
of the campaign, Carter? Do we have our first gate?
Zain
2:19
hate gates. why do you hate gates i
Carter
2:22
hate gates because i mean first of all very american and secondly nothing ever rises to that level right like this is not rising to the level do you think watergate
Zain
2:29
watergate rose to the level of a gate i actually don't think it did in retrospect watergate should not have been a gate no
Carter
2:36
no i mean when we're comparing to donald trump no yeah but when we're comparing to normal presidents it was pretty important it was pretty it was a pretty big deal but i i think right now it's
Zain
2:45
of like a door is
Zain
2:46
not a water door yeah
Zain
2:48
i'm gonna re-ban it to water door
Carter
2:50
yeah i think that we should also go with button
Carter
2:53
button down how's that you like that button
Zain
2:57
okay let's give people some real problem
Carter
2:59
problem it's just um
Zain
2:59
um okay this is how boring the weekend was and or this is how important this story is i actually don't know you're gonna tell me carter uh two liberal party operatives were were caught well not even caught they fucking tattled on themselves in a bar afterwards doing this they were planting um stop the steel buttons and jenny burn crossed out with cory tonight buttons to i guess so or propel or catalyze tensions within the conservative movement at the manning sending center conference in in ottawa this weekend they planted these these buttons during a networking reception um so as to you know do
Zain
3:41
do the fuckery that that campaigns do carter the this article reporting by cbc goes on to say exactly what i did at the first part of which is these staffers were you
Zain
3:54
in two ottawa bars they kind of shared how they did this behind the scenes which is how this was found out they were sitting next to a journalist off fucking course they were so that part of the story that part of the story hilarious and intriguing uh to me um the
Zain
4:09
the second part of this that's interesting is
Zain
4:11
is that this was as
Zain
4:15
done by the liberal war room that the what the war room had kind of pushed this upon them now this is all sources and stuff and i bet the story if it actually becomes a thing tomorrow and if actually becomes a thing for carney tomorrow which i'm actually really curious about from your vantage point if carney's gonna have to burn half a day and frankly fire two staff for this.
Zain
4:35
But Carter, where do we want to start with this story? Because we've got the actual action. We've got the staffers in the bar. We've got the war room pushing it. And then we've got the future aspect of Carney having to burn a day. And then we've got the broader strategy question, which is how do you clean up a mess like this? How would Stephen Carter clean up a mess if this article came out on a Sunday morning for you? So where do you want to tackle it? And then I'll kind of process the other elements of it thereafter.
Carter
4:58
I think we should start in the war room. I mean, I mean, that's obviously where the idea started, right?
Carter
5:03
You know, you and I are sitting around a war room, and we're thinking to ourselves, how would we cause difficulties? And we come up with the idea that we're going to make some buttons.
Carter
5:12
And we're going to put the buttons. I mean, this is after sweatshirts and hats basically saying, do you believe the polls have come out, and it's caused trouble on the Polyev campaign.
Zain
5:25
And to be clear, these sweatshirts that you're talking about, those have not been credited to a liberal campaign. I mean, those have been supporters
Zain
5:30
supporters of the conservative movement, so to speak. But the conservatives
Carter
5:33
conservatives are in the midst of pissing themselves, right?
Carter
5:36
conservatives are in the midst of hurting their own campaign. Yes.
Carter
5:40
And the liberal geniuses decide that what they're going to do is try and ramp that up by producing buttons that are going to go into this Manning Center conference.
Zain
5:52
Yeah. I mean— We're going to produce these buttons. we're gonna continue to sow the seeds of internal division and chaos and um whatever why why
Carter
6:01
internal division and chaos already exists cory tonight is still taking down jenny burn we're still talking about it why do you need to amplify we
Zain
6:10
we are still talking about we're
Carter
6:11
we're in the war room you and i and this would be my response don't get in the way of an opponent that is destroying themselves right
Carter
6:18
right why would you do something this fucking stupid with two weeks in the campaign okay
Zain
6:25
um you and i are on the same page so i'm gonna ask ask a bigger question to you perhaps say something blasphemous from a campaign org perspective war
Zain
6:35
actually i'm gonna say the war
Zain
6:39
war rooms at the very least are structured wrong and
Zain
6:44
and war rooms are probably doing more harm than good today on campaigns fight me on this no
Zain
6:51
i can't i've been i've seen maybe three to four war rooms of some of the fucking smartest campaign people ever that have either throttled way too hard on the aggressive so as the propositional message has not been able to get through and we've suffered as a result um and not by any sort of like they're just doing their gig and or and this i put this in the second category they're
Zain
7:14
they're doing stuff that's so inside baseball that the rapid response is so like it's so online it's so of a moment that most of the public hasn't actually understood what they're doing that they they overcompensate to the point that that they look like the assholes rather than the react they look like react the rather than the reactionary so my statement to you is i think at the very least we're structuring war rooms incorrectly either with the wrong type of male bravado energy bullshit which you can argue on i think part of it is that yeah
Carter
7:47
yeah and and or they're actually
Zain
7:49
actually war rooms in campaigns are not helpful like i actually starting to believe that outside of like the background media relation stuff of getting your stories out these things are not those
Zain
8:00
those things are not helpful man yeah
Carter
8:02
yeah i think that if we took them and divided them into two and
Carter
8:05
and say we're going to have a rapid response go all the way back to michael dacocas and the rapid response idea right
Carter
8:11
right go to rapid response That's all we're going to do is just rapid respond to media. And
Carter
8:16
the second half of the war room is
Carter
8:18
is just going to be handed over to the strategic types, right?
Carter
8:22
right? Which is the rapid response making, you know, not rapid response to media, but making sure that, you
Carter
8:27
you know, the strategic decisions that are unfolding in front of you, the operational and tactical decisions that
Carter
8:33
that may have strategic implications. patience those decisions are being made by the top echelon of the campaign because they got to be doing something right like this is this this war room um has
Carter
8:48
has outlived its day in in the in the political sphere i i totally agree with you not because we don't need to have you know combative stances not because we don't need to
Carter
8:58
to take on our opposition but because there's no sense like they're not being staffed with the right people and
Carter
9:05
these war rooms are making things worse not better make it about media make another room about stress you know this responding to things that have strategic implications this
Zain
9:15
this i think i think fucking
Carter
9:16
fucking children be in charge you've
Zain
9:17
you've you've hit it on the head with the second part which is things that have strategic implications i think modern day war rooms even how we've structured these clapback twitter and Instagram accounts, right? Carney Media is the liberal version of this. And the Kamala HQ was the Democrat version of this. And of course, these are on both sides, Trump HQ and whatever Polyev's one is called. The only reason I'm not mentioning is because I don't have it at the tip of my tongue.
Zain
9:41
But the fact is that often
Zain
9:43
often they're very good at clapping back, but
Zain
9:47
but often I think they're missing the strategic filter.
Zain
9:51
What is actually valuable? And if Pierre Poliev puts out a video with a couple thousand views, that's not blowing the world up on fire. But then you respond to that with your own version of it. Or Andrew Scheer does, in my opinion, a cringeworthy ad about getting back with your ex at a bar having a beer, and you do your clapback version. Funny, cheeky, and maybe that's not a great example of the point I'm trying to make, but they're responding to everything. These accounts are so good. These people are so nimble. They're so online. line they're so so gen z they're so with it that at some point that upside of being like everything the other side puts out we squash back may have a cost to it and i and i'm not saying the button idea is a direct linkage to this but i think it comes from that culture of like oh yeah like they're actually like the people have shirt sweatshirts that are doing this and then this is going on and yes that's a media story but it's not something that people have already heard There's not enough soak time. There's still more runway available for people to see the conservatives torturing themselves. There's days left on that story because it hasn't gotten to the normal person. And these folks, rather than giving it the days, are quashing that by trying to ignite the situation or trying to clap back way too quickly in some cases.
Carter
11:08
Well, why are we even bothering? I mean, what is it we're trying to win? Social media? Does that matter anymore? Is social media a thing anymore that we need to win, Zane? I don't think so. It seems
Zain
11:19
seems like these HQ accounts are designed to neutralize and or win organic social media. That seems to be their intent, rather than rapid response of strategic or vulnerable items that could actually hurt you and or that you could have opportunity for. i think they are rapid response clapback machines to win the day on social or
Zain
11:41
win the hour on social like every hour it's almost like did we win this hour yeah
Carter
11:45
yeah and to what end is this is this where the decision is the the election is being decided i don't think so and the other we might sound like two old dudes
Zain
11:53
dudes yelling at clouds i don't know we might be totally wrong about this i'm willing to concede that point as well we're
Carter
11:58
we're not i could
Zain
11:58
could be wrong about this i could be wrong about about this this
Carter
12:01
is why we don't let you in this strategist seat very often you have to have 100 conviction in what you're saying and i'll tell you another thing the other group that you're trying to win over is the media i
Carter
12:11
mean the traditional media doesn't really even exist in the way that it once did and
Carter
12:17
we're not you know you don't have to win the media every single day you need to win the ground game every single day that's what you need to do and any day that takes away from your ground message is a bad fucking day well
Zain
12:29
tell me this tell me this then like one of the reasons these war rooms are set up with the the two halves that you had which was the strategic rapid response and then the media relations which is a a very nice way of saying giving the media dirt so you don't have to air that laundry yourself giving them the sources the background the story so that they with their teams right when those teams used to be larger broader, wider across the country, more folks, now the media has less ability to investigate these pieces, but you would provide them this information, they would look at you skeptically, you would provide them more information, and you'd say there's a there there, and they would do the work, because they would deem it newsworthy, and they would provide their own journalistic filter on it. Do you feel like we're in a campaign world, Carter, that that matters anymore, how the story comes out? Because there could also be a case around how modern day campaign media relations has done, especially from the oppo side, which is, do you feel like we're in a new reality where I could just put this story out myself with my partisan tinge, and it might have just as much mileage as a long, lengthy investigative piece put out by the CBC or Global News, for example?
Carter
13:33
I think your hypothesis is bang on. I think that, you know, why would you bother to go through the media when you can just put your own story out? And that's probably how it's going to get covered anyways, right? You don't have to slide a brown envelope to a journalist anymore you put out i'm actually sincerely asking
Zain
13:47
asking the question you actually believe that you actually believe that hey oh
Carter
13:51
oh yeah i mean what do you i mean you
Carter
13:53
you know one of the one of the best thing you know one of the things i say to my clients all the time is if you want to make sure that a story doesn't get covered write a news release right like if you want to make sure that it gets absolutely buried try and slide a brown envelope across to a journalist today journalists are on twitter they're on you know they're finding their stuff but they're not they're not taking in brown envelopes from the campaigns the way they once did you know there's no sitting in a bar uh chatting about a story instead they're sitting in a bar and overhearing a story because the story
Carter
14:23
doesn't come from the mouths of the of the war room they know they're being spun and
Carter
14:28
sometimes the spin is good enough that they'll follow it but
Carter
14:32
you're better off just to put out the tweet or put out the story put out the you
Carter
14:36
you know the the your own version of it that's
Carter
14:39
that's crafted for your own audience and then you
Carter
14:43
know do it through a video do it through whatever i
Carter
14:45
mean you don't have to uh show up and uh buy
Carter
14:49
buy the journalist a beer anymore and say i've got a story for you got you a little lead you
Carter
14:53
you know that that's not how that's not how the world is working
Zain
14:59
let's talk about the journalistic angle on here i find that interesting the
Zain
15:03
the two staffers in a bar it is so cliche we
Zain
15:06
we hear about this all the time especially in the ottawa context or you know in our more localized regional sense the edmonton ledge context you know be careful how you're speaking and here
Zain
15:16
here they are the staffers like right next to a journalist and almost like they wanted them to hear almost what this article implies at least from my reading
Zain
15:25
what's up with that carter like like do you feel like they're this is like i could easily tie this back to a simple liberal arrogance thing that these people should just have shut the fuck up right like you yeah you agree like they shouldn't have done it shut
Zain
15:36
shut the fuck up part a they shouldn't have said anything shut the fuck up part b right
Zain
15:40
right um together it equals just shut the fuck don't don't like sometimes you guys cory would say not communicating not doing something is always a strategic choice available to you and
Zain
15:53
this case that should have been the path that that they they would have taken to hindsight us
Zain
15:56
us sitting here um
Zain
15:57
um criticizing is easy um
Zain
16:00
um but we did talk about the culture piece and what could motivate something like this in terms of what you're trying to win what you're trying to do um do
Zain
16:07
do these two folks have to lose their job carter because i almost want to go to the cleanup here they
Zain
16:11
they were they does does mark carney and the campaign to minimize
Zain
16:16
to minimize the burn to minimize where they're at even like contextualizes for me we head into a monday where wednesday's a debate i'm not saying it's a down week because pierre's gonna have to do stuff so he's gonna be assertive this week one would imagine carney's probably gonna try to do as much as he can of p.m. time, but he's already getting a fair
Zain
16:34
fair bit of criticism for it from the media, from other parties, etc. He still may end up doing it. We'll see what his schedule looks like for Monday, Tuesday.
Zain
16:44
How do the liberals handle this? If Stephen Carter was responsible, how would you have handled this? Would this have been tonight, both these people are gone, so Carney doesn't face any questions about this, and we can move on? Or what are you doing here, Carter?
Carter
16:56
Yeah, I probably would have fired them before they got home from the bar.
Carter
17:00
um this is you know i've i've been overheard in bars and things like that but i'm generally speaking not um
Carter
17:09
um bragging about my ne'er-do-well activities um
Zain
17:13
um you use the podcast for that i
Carter
17:15
i have a podcast for that no i
Carter
17:17
i mean people have heard me talking to someone you know we'll be having a conversation with a donor or potential client or a potential uh candidate or something like that and you can be overheard um
Carter
17:29
that happens occasionally it happens to me more frequently because i have a podcast and people recognize my voice and that's weird
Carter
17:37
that that is uh that's part of the joy of it i mean you know you're going to be overheard so you you have to talk in some codes and you have to make sure that your mouths are shut this is ridiculous to me that you would go to a you would go to the manning center event you would do something you know know your dirty deed done dirt cheap and
Carter
17:58
then you would come out of it and
Carter
18:00
and brag about it in a bar like if you're gonna do a dirty deed shouldn't shut the fuck up that's rule number one right we've done stuff we've done things we don't talk about them afterwards we keep them to ourselves we keep them for for for you know later in in uh in our books when we're gonna be you know Writing something at 75 years old. This isn't something that comes out during the campaign. It's just, it's fucking lunacy and it's amateur hour. And those two amateurs should have their ass handed to them.
Zain
18:35
So here's a liberal spokesperson, Kevin Lemke.
Zain
18:39
I hope I'm pronouncing that correctly. He said the party has conducted a review of the matter and that leader Mark Carney has made it clear that, quote, this does not fit in his commitment to a serious and positive discourse.
Zain
18:48
That's what the article is reporting. You feel like they're going to have to be let go? Like, how does Carney minimize this tomorrow?
Zain
18:54
tomorrow? What would you have suggested? What would you suggest to him right now?
Carter
18:58
You got to do everything proactively. Otherwise, you're going to be dealing with a story. If the media make you fire them, then all of a sudden, that's the story, right?
Carter
19:09
So you either fire them beforehand or you ride and die with them. And
Carter
19:13
And it sounds like they're going to ride and die. The
Zain
19:16
The Liberal Party said that they regrettably got carried away and that they were poking fun. And they very well may have been. I just don't know if that's the translation. That's bullshit.
Carter
19:24
They're not poking fun. They're trying to create havoc.
Carter
19:27
And havoc is great. You should totally create havoc with your opposition. It's
Zain
19:31
It's just that you got caught. But there's
Carter
19:34
Don't get caught. And don't do certain things that are just stupid. Yeah.
Zain
19:37
Yeah. And it's like
Carter
19:38
like going and taking someone's signs down. It's
Zain
19:41
It's also contextual. It's also contextual, right? Yeah. You're doing well. You're heading into a week where the other guy has to overperform significantly in order to catch up to your lead put this into context and the fact that the you know do you believe the poll story that the other side is trying to defend from their own side has not yet caught the attention of the mainstream there's no reason for you to um you know push that it is being pushed it just is taking its soak time as we often often
Zain
20:09
often say to the public carter um anything else on here that you want to talk about do you feel like this actually one more question for you carney
Zain
20:16
carney was slow to get rid of paul chang could this actually be another teachable moment but for carney like he's new to this game he's been doing it for 95 fucking days at this point i think he's doing
Zain
20:27
for someone who's doing it for 95 days like i'm impressed but like you know i've already been on on a bit of a like this is this is where i'm at with with mark carney but but but people
Zain
20:37
people were telling mark carney that fuck man you should have fired paul chang a long time ago what the hell is this
Zain
20:43
this another teachable moment and if not what's different about it i
Carter
20:48
i mean this is a teachable moment this should be teaching the entire uh the entire team uh
Carter
20:53
uh how to behave during a campaign so my view is this should be every
Carter
20:58
every you know this
Carter
20:59
this should be very simple and it shouldn't even have to go to the leader um andrew bevin who's the the leader of the is running the campaign uh should You just simply say, you're done.
Carter
21:10
Out the door you go. I
Zain
21:11
I wonder if one of the reasons they're not making a call is because some of these folks might not necessarily be 20-year-old, 25-year-old staffers, Carter. And this is at this point, who knows? But there is a possibility that these folks are
Zain
21:25
are more senior or have more sort of standing All the more reason to
Carter
21:32
to say goodbye. Yeah,
Carter
21:35
If it's someone who should know better. It's
Zain
21:36
It's a know better situation. right then
Carter
21:38
then you then you got to go and
Carter
21:40
and you know you can show up again later but you're going to be gone for the next two weeks anyways can
Zain
21:45
i ask you one question kind of going back to the broader theme of war rooms being structured incorrectly or frankly just being so in the bubble of a campaign how do you allow how would stephen carter culture
Zain
21:56
culture a campaign to allow outside oxygen in which
Zain
22:00
which is to say that it's not which is to say that like how do you ensure that in a 35 day 38 day 50 day pressure cooker that people aren't just thinking that every comma every tweet everything that the other side said every fucking race car video or andrew sheer video at a bar is going to blow up your lead is gonna because people react that way right everyone is you've you told me this i was reacting this way on a campaign and you said you're bambi on ice you've got no ability to tell what is good what is not what is important what is not and i was complaining to you about you know fucking carter if we don't have these signs printed here for this particular sign we're We're not going to win the campaign. You're like, that's not going to be it.
Zain
22:38
But these people, to
Zain
22:40
to their credit and perhaps to their organizational detriment, are primed to think that way. That's their job. Their job is to live 20 hours at a time to clap back and think that the other side, what they said, is the most important thing that could ruin the campaign.
Zain
22:54
How would you let outside oxygen in so that they have a sense of perspective? It's a very long way for me to ask that question. but what would carter what would you do to allow your war room team to have perspective or would you say you know what maybe perspective is not what that group needs the
Carter
23:08
the best well you don't need that group to have it but you need the leadership of that group to have it i mean that those phone calls that you and i used to do when you were in the midst of various campaigns right
Carter
23:17
those that's what you need right you're
Carter
23:20
charge you don't need your kids doing that right the kids the kids should live it breathe it feel it for 24 7 right you
Zain
23:28
you you'd be be fine with them thinking everything is is 11 on the scale absolutely
Carter
23:33
throw yourself into it throw yourself into the meat grinder you're 20 25 years old you're you're you're you're dumb as fuck and you just you just you you you
Carter
23:43
you just throw yourself into it i love it go for it right but
Carter
23:48
leadership that put the stamp of approval on everything and
Carter
23:51
and that's senior leadership because this in two kids that decided to make some buttons right
Carter
23:56
this is a war room that decided to send two kids out with some buttons and
Zain
24:01
it seems that way that's correct yes on the reporting i don't
Carter
24:04
don't think that there's enough telephone calls being made i
Carter
24:06
i don't think there's enough telephone calls being made across the country saying hey how are things actually going up there right
Carter
24:12
right tell me your stories tell me what's actually going on if
Zain
24:16
if they were to
Carter
24:16
to call into calgary
Carter
24:18
calgary center calgary confederation calgary skyview calgary
Carter
24:21
calgary mcknight they would get a story if
Carter
24:23
if they called into the lower mainland of british columbia they'd get a story and maybe that would would start to temper
Carter
24:29
temper their actions because the actions this weekend only hurt. They did not help.
Zain
24:37
Yeah, no, I tend to agree with you.
Zain
24:41
Any fuckery for Pierre Poliev? How does he inflict maximum pain on Team Carney with this? And let me just add a comment to this. This and a not
Zain
24:53
not wide-scale reported, but definitely reported in a few places tightening of the polls the tightening of the polls plus this is there a there there for pierre poliev yeah
Carter
25:05
yeah i would demand an apology from uh mark carney in the debates oh
Zain
25:10
oh you'd wait till the debates i'd
Carter
25:11
i'd wait to the debates and
Zain
25:12
and i'd say um
Carter
25:13
um you know there's you
Zain
25:14
you don't you don't you don't try to burn monday or tuesday on this you wait till wednesday or probably you probably wait till thursday thursday which is english by the way yeah french yeah you
Carter
25:22
you You come in and you say, you
Carter
25:25
know, you say you want to behave in the highest possible moral standards, but your team doesn't,
Carter
25:31
right? So I'd like an apology right now for the two staff people that went into a conference and tried to do dishonest actions that didn't have anything behind them except, you know, malfeasance.
Carter
25:49
malfeasance. why i want an apology to all canadians to my team to all
Zain
25:55
all canadians walk me through this though walk me through this let's let's i like this i like this carney
Zain
26:00
carney apologizes is there a trap door that he doesn't see there with an apology trap
Zain
26:04
what's the trap door on the apology all
Carter
26:06
of a sudden now mark carney can't be trusted mark
Carter
26:10
mark carney can't be trusted because more
Zain
26:12
more does mark carney just look
Zain
26:12
look like a reasonable person being like yep that was wrong none to spare what we we want to do i apologize let's move on ah
Carter
26:17
ah the days the days of ralph klein are long behind us my friend i
Zain
26:21
i don't think that
Carter
26:21
that we can see an apology without having a see i told you he was dishonest
Carter
26:28
that's one of the lessons
Zain
26:28
lessons you don't get that backfires on pierre within this sort of cultural moment we might be living in no i don't think interesting i
Carter
26:35
he's going to demand an apology on thursday before
Zain
26:37
before we have that high okay that's a that's a good that's a good prediction I actually like the strategy in terms of what you're suggesting, in terms of another area that he hits, because trust is what they're trying to go after with the tax havens and such. I'm going to throw out a statement to you. Monday, Tuesday, if the trend that Ipsos and, I believe, Abacus, don't quote me on this, are reporting that the polls are tightening a bit, that that eight-point lead is turning into five, four, three, right? Let's say that replicates a few other polls that come onto our desks in the next 48 hours. Here's my strategic statement for you to agree or disagree with.
Zain
27:14
The liberals are not all that freaked out.
Zain
27:18
And the reason they're all not all that freaked out is two points. Number one, they
Zain
27:22
they can still get a majority with the four-point lead. And number two, poll tightening, and I think this is the central point that I want to kind of get your take on. Poll tightening for them is not bad because it ensures that the NDP maximize their floor. means
Zain
27:37
means that like and i guess that's a poor way of saying it that the ndp surely
Zain
27:41
surely hit their floor and
Zain
27:44
don't actually and between you and i i don't know what that floor is man i i was saying historically it's like 12 we've seen polling that's at eight and a half and seven and a half i don't know if it's lower than that but it could be it could be like so poll tightening if you're in the central liberal campaign right now yeah you're a bit nervous about it and the other guy was going to have a week, but this now fundamentally guarantees to you that
Zain
28:09
that the NDP vote is coming over, especially if Jagmeet's given them permission, like he kind of did with his statement on Friday, to say elect as many of us sort of thing, not necessarily acknowledging that he's trying to form government.
Zain
28:21
Do you agree with my
Zain
28:21
my broader sort of soup of a statement or no?
Carter
28:25
Well, first of all, I would add a third, and maybe this is part of your first, they can form a majority. They never believed the polls anyways. Anyways,
Carter
28:32
no one was thinking that Ipsos was 100% right, right?
Carter
28:36
Ipsos, or I'm sorry, Ecos was crazy. Ecos
Zain
28:38
Ecos was still a dozen. Ipsos was in the middle. Leger was the six-ish point. I
Carter
28:44
don't think anybody in the Liberal team thought that the polls were correct. I
Carter
28:48
I think that everybody expected a titan, and I think that everybody thought, you know, this bump is as artificial as Pierre Paulien's bump. um so the canadian people are going to decide on the 28th and until then uh the polls are going to move three four six points um and that's okay uh right now i think the second part of your assessment that the ndp floor uh may be realized you know a brand new floor will be established much
Zain
29:19
much better way of saying it that's right well
Carter
29:20
well because i'm a professional no
Zain
29:22
no you are you are Yeah.
Carter
29:23
Yeah. But I think that the the the new floor that's going to be established for the NDP is going to be really bad and it will enable the the efficient already efficient liberal vote to continue to be efficient. um like when you're starting to look at what's going to happen in quebec what's happening across ontario to the to the new democrats what's happening to in british columbia to the new democrats um this is this is a particularly negative time to be a new democratic supporter in uh in canada at the federal
Zain
29:58
federal yeah federal nd supporter yeah
Zain
30:01
yeah this this election obviously shouldn't end with a carney win and or a majority it's really going to be most people are going to focus all eyes on how did Pierre lose the guy with the lead for two years and inevitability written on his forehead and his hoodie um how did this guy fuck it up but really you could argue he hasn't fucked anything up he's
Zain
30:21
he's kept 38 of support which should have a conservative
Zain
30:29
the fact is that the ndp which hovers at 20 18
Zain
30:32
18 to 20 18 to 25 um
Zain
30:37
just couldn't and may have realized a brand new floor i think the real study case study here will will be the new democrats should this end up and i'm not to project anything because i want to talk about the debates but
Zain
30:47
there's a there there of course yeah
Carter
30:48
yeah i mean you know what we we've talked many many times on the show about the blue orange switch right
Carter
30:54
right um pierre pauliev has not been able to accept to uh to to realize any of this NDP collapse.
Zain
31:03
clear, he may have engineered part of the NDP collapse. He spent millions of dollars, hundreds of thousands at least, on trying to tell people that Jagmeet Singh's a fucking loser, that all he's in it for is his pension. This was six months ago, right? Now, six months ago, they thought that was going to be their principal enemy in
Zain
31:20
in some ways. And
Carter
31:22
They anticipated being able to pick up some of that NDP. Of
Zain
31:24
Of course they did. The orange-blue, to your point, was a core part of their strategy. and very well maybe but
Zain
31:31
but but let me ask let me ask you this strategic question um
Zain
31:36
then we'll get to the poll uh get to the the debates
Zain
31:40
anything in your mind any and i may have asked you a version of this a couple weeks ago but i'm wondering as you've kind of gone through the world consume this new scene where is there anything in your mind that if you were whispering bring to the conservatives, that you'd say, here's something you guys could try to help Jagmeet, because you need him to not be at his floor. You need him to be like four times it. Now, I'm not saying Stephen Carter come up with a strategy that gets Jagmeet Singh back to 16% to 20%. However, Carter, do you have anything that could help the
Zain
32:14
the conservatives help the new Democrats? Because that's where we're at right now. The liberals have no incentive to do so. So the conservatives have the entire incentive
Zain
32:21
incentive of the entire world to do so.
Zain
32:23
Is there anything they could do, unaided
Zain
32:26
and unsolicited by the New Democrats? Like, this is so funny, right? Unaided, unsolicited, not wanted, because no New Democrat at their core will want Pierre Poliev to form government. But will they want a few more seats for themselves? They might take that. They might take that trade with the devil. So is there anything that you could do as a conservative right now to help your buddy Jagmeet Singh, who you need to be your best friend, and you need to be your best friend at the top of his game for the next two weeks no
Carter
32:50
no i mean if you look at the ndp collapse a large number of them are still going blue right
Carter
32:55
right so there's not a lot that you can do
Zain
32:58
do there is there is there yeah you just need a lot more of them to go orange yeah
Zain
33:03
yeah stay orange that's your issue yeah i
Zain
33:05
mean the ones that are coming to you you'll take but the ones that are going red which is the massive bleed out right like to be clear the smaller of the two bleed outs is the orange blue the massive bleed out which is going to perhaps lead to a historic floor is to team red yeah
Carter
33:23
yeah i just think that there's nothing that they can do except go after the the most fluid vote and
Carter
33:28
and the most fluid vote is the vote that's gone to the liberals that's
Carter
33:32
that's where they actually need to focus their attention is is on the vote that went to the liberals not the vote that's you know remains with the ndp or that has escaped the ndp they
Carter
33:41
they need to win more votes that went to the liberals and
Carter
33:45
that to me is the only play that they have they don't have they
Zain
33:49
they don't have a credible there's no fuckery
Carter
33:50
fuckery around with the ndp none of none of that's gonna work
Zain
33:54
let's talk about the debates um how do you want to do this talk about the goals of each folks each person i don't want to split them in english and french unless you feel like there is i don't think there's different goals
Carter
34:04
goals in english and french i think both the goals should be the same and and that's one of the things that i would say is don't approach the english debate and the french debate is different
Zain
34:13
Don't approach French as batting practice, which sometimes candidates do, by the way. We have noticed that, that they hold back on their lines and they give the full version of it. I mean, you don't speak French, I don't speak French, but we've kind of seen these in subtitles and such and with analysis that they hold back. They
Zain
34:28
They often hold back. They give a version of the line in
Zain
34:32
in French, but they're just batting practice for Thursday night or the main event sort of thing. So you're saying don't do that.
Carter
34:37
They got to go into this, especially with the liberal rise in Quebec. beck i mean pierre
Carter
34:44
has to look at that and say there's a natural advantage i must go into this the same way that i'm going into the english language like everything is to play for everything
Carter
34:52
everything is on the table this
Carter
34:54
this is the the ball game and
Carter
34:56
and pierre polliev frankly is is fighting for his political life um he uh he has to hit the ball out of the park on on
Carter
35:08
on thursday or wednesday and thursday um both equally he
Carter
35:12
he has to be able to showcase that he can be the prime minister for english
Carter
35:17
english-speaking canada as well as francophone canada and i think that that's the same for mark carney mark
Carter
35:23
mark carney needs to be able to show that his performance in in french can
Carter
35:27
can be as dominant as
Carter
35:30
as has his performance in english and i would be saying to both you
Carter
35:33
you know i would be if
Carter
35:35
if i i was coaching carney what
Carter
35:37
what i'd be saying to carney is don't
Carter
35:39
don't try and hit the ball out of the park all
Carter
35:41
all you have to do is show that you are 100 competent in both languages so that doesn't mean um
Carter
35:50
catching pierre paliev it doesn't mean having a great line that that makes pierre paliev look uh look bad had you know a tie is as good as a win for uh for mark carney he doesn't need to to knock it out of the park and
Zain
36:07
and so he leans into authenticity boring yep like just methodical i've got three points on this point one point two point three he's gonna have to watch the clock a bit right and his pressers that's one thing he doesn't have to compete against is that he can give very long drawn out technocratic answers and some are would yell at me be like you're not a technocrat i think he is anyways he would give these sort of answers he has to watch the clock a bit so that the the the the speed is going to be important but you'd say be yourself there's nothing really you don't need yeah
Zain
36:39
yeah and his lines he can deliver a few lines if he needs to uh but he
Carter
36:43
he doesn't have to catch pierre he can he can
Carter
36:46
have a scripted line that makes him look good that's
Zain
36:50
that's great here's the question
Carter
36:51
question totally do that don't do
Carter
36:53
anything that's going to try and capture catch pierre focus
Carter
36:56
focus on on yourself be
Zain
36:58
be yourself it's a note card you've got written on the carny podium are
Zain
37:02
are you producing two of those and giving one to pierre as well well
Carter
37:07
well pierre i'm actually going to say be human
Carter
37:09
um so you know try and smile
Carter
37:11
smile like a human being try and approach this like a human one of the things that we have a hard time with with pierre is we don't find him relatable right so he's not relatable and because of that he's not getting the up to uplift that he needs um across the country both third wednesday and thursday he's got to be the
Carter
37:34
the most relatable version of pierre polyev which means
Zain
37:37
means an insanely high bar yeah and i don't mean that as an insult to him but but you're saying let me let me let me interrupt you well it is but let me interrupt you there you're You're saying if Pierre Poliev has a pandemic style dressing down of Mark Carney, like that video that circulates where Carney's kind of coming to committee, I forget which committee you might be able to tell me, Carter, right? But you know what I'm alluding to, and I suspect our listeners do too. If he tries that prosecutorial dressing
Zain
38:05
dressing down of Carney, is
Zain
38:09
is that a vibe that catches on in your mind? Is that a thing he should do?
Zain
38:13
Why not? why not 30
Carter
38:14
30 he solidifies 35 of his 37 percent fuck
Zain
38:18
that's a high number like there is a theory that i have that that you know he he
Zain
38:23
could just do this for the base that sounds insane but he could just do this debate for the base good
Carter
38:29
for him if he does the debate for the base you disagree
Zain
38:31
disagree i know i i'm trying to
Zain
38:33
to create a strategy a strategic pathway and
Carter
38:36
and it seems like he might to win the most flexible voters. He has to win the ones that move to the liberals.
Zain
38:43
I understand what you're saying. I understand totally what you're saying. I feel like that could be a
Zain
38:47
a high-wire act that goes terribly
Zain
38:50
terribly for him. But you're saying he has no other choice.
Carter
38:53
I mean, I've seen the pictures of his smiles. I've seen the pictures of
Zain
38:56
of him. No, of the handshake attempts and the amazing memes that saying, you know, day six, trying to smile. Like, yeah. No, it's not a great look. It's a work in progress. Just as much as Carney's a work in progress as a political machine as
Zain
39:16
He's never needed friendships. He never needed Doug Ford. He never needed swing voters. he never needed jack shit because the liberals were in the toilet the ndp were doing just fine humming along at 20 now this guy who's got the party at a historical high and the polls of 38 needs fucking 42 how and that sounds like a small number and it is a small number so let's not forget this race is not over but it is like those final four points for pierre poliev are so
Zain
39:43
so hard to get right
Zain
39:46
right i'm going to be so hard to get in order to win an election that he might just decide side right that he is going to run this race to solidify 38 which is a close
Zain
39:56
close to a historic high for the conservatives and hope that the carney vote is soft and do whatever he can to make sure the carney vote is soft am i nuts hey
Carter
40:04
hey you're nuts yeah
Zain
40:06
yeah i might be i'm i'm just trying to think of a viable pathway for him and and that as actually doable
Zain
40:11
doable for him because i'm not sure a
Zain
40:14
a version that isn't pure poly i'm trying to dress down carney is what we're a gonna see and b is gonna going to be something he can he can execute upon let's
Carter
40:21
let's be clear i think you're right i
Carter
40:24
he's going to do that i
Carter
40:25
i think he's going to come out there and jenny burn and and and pierre paulieff are working on a strategy right now that says we were right six months ago let's not fuck around and try and be something new now
Zain
40:38
now let's tear we're going to go back
Carter
40:39
back to six months when we were winning this thing by a landslide and i'm going to produce the very best of that and canada god damn it is going to eat their vegetables and they're going to like this because this is what they need they
Carter
40:51
they need pierre poliev and his fiscal conservatism and all of his assholery he they need it right
Zain
40:58
right they need they need the pitbull like he they need him you
Zain
41:02
think that is what he's going to do hey he's going to go full-on pierre poliev but like he's going to actually take the be yourself card and say that is my lesson too even though yeah you know and
Carter
41:10
and then he's and he's going to attack carney and he's going to attack carney and he's going to attack carney how far is
Zain
41:14
is he going to go here's what i'm interested there's the there's the lane of attack that seems i shouldn't say i don't want to be the judge and jury on reasonable but let me just use those terms because i can't think of a better one the reasonable tax haven lack of experience another fourth year term like fine then there's like the second order effect of like what right-wing media circulates around oh
Zain
41:36
right like the whole epstein shit like the canada proud stuff does he go there i'm curious curious if that this is a moment does he go with unfact-checked new fresh oppo myth rumor stuff which we by the way we have seen in debates in the past right people have thrown out shit that no one has heard before at a debate stage no one understands the context the moderator can't fact check it and they try to wage an attack from right field that that the person wasn't even expecting to be like what the fuck is this right do we feel like he's going to go that level if you feel like i'm correct that pierre is going to be pierre how pierre or
Zain
42:11
or how much pierre are we we going to see i
Carter
42:13
don't think he goes that far i don't think he goes
Carter
42:15
true north on this or or counter signal uh
Carter
42:20
i think he goes you
Carter
42:23
as far as possible but it's mostly his attitude
Carter
42:29
that comes that shines and that attitude is going to be a negative one this
Zain
42:34
this is going to be fascinating to watch this week um talk to me about it's going to be great
Zain
42:38
Talk to me about Jagmeet Singh very quickly.
Zain
42:42
Well, you know, who is right in some ways, but also just like the guy who's potentially making this election for Carney.
Zain
42:52
There is moral victory for the NDP, should you want it, in terms of preventing Pierre Paulier from forming government by their, you know, historic lows. But, but, but, Jagmeet
Zain
43:00
Jagmeet almost acknowledged on Friday that they're not going to form government, that when you elect a lot of us, good shit gets done. and there's
Zain
43:06
there's two ways of reading that that
Zain
43:10
it's another frame it's another frame at saying the same thing yeah
Zain
43:15
right the other way to read it is we recommend
Carter
43:17
recommend that he do too but
Zain
43:19
but the other way because he's left it so open-ended yeah
Zain
43:24
the other way to read it which is the way i've read it is it gives people permission to vote for the liberals right
Zain
43:30
right like it almost i'm not sure it
Zain
43:32
it It almost implies, it almost implies, what was not said is we're not going to form government. That part, the crucial part that we're not going to form government, that when you elect a lot of us, when you elect some of us, good things get done, almost gives liberals permission. It almost gives folks permission to vote for the liberals, especially in ridings that that's going to matter. And with poll tightening, I think, so my question for you is, does Jagmeet Singh need to clean that up?
Zain
43:57
You might disagree and say, no, he does not need to clean that up. and and if so what and if not what does jagmeet singh need to add as a next layer here of showcasing uh what that looks like how that works does he need to lead into one message around all the cares health denta pharma child we got this done this is the workers does he need to lean into here's the 30 ridings that you need to vote for us in does it does he need to lead into an attack line and does he spend his entire time attacking uh
Zain
44:25
uh what give me a sense of because Because Jagmeet Singh, out of most folks, I think has the greatest amount of optionality heading into Wednesday, Thursday, right? You could think of it as the narrowest task, survive, but the greatest amount of optionality in terms of how to survive. So I'm curious where your head's at with him as we round up.
Carter
44:43
I don't think that he can differentiate between the Calgary Confederation and the Burnaby Central, right?
Zain
44:51
What's the point you're trying to make there, just so people understand? What I'm trying
Carter
44:54
trying to get across is he can't say it's
Carter
44:57
it's okay to lend your vote to Corey
Carter
45:02
Calgary Confederation, but I really need your vote in Burnaby.
Carter
45:08
It's just impossible for him to differentiate those two things. He can't come out and say, these are the 30 ridings where I really need you. I think that he should take
Carter
45:20
take his limited resources and do that. but you can't say it in the debate some Wednesday Thursday just can't can
Carter
45:27
can you say it anywhere can
Carter
45:30
you say it anywhere or is
Zain
45:32
is it just something the ground does I'm a believer you can assist the
Zain
45:36
I'm a believer that if that's if that's where he's headed that
Zain
45:39
that I think he'd be well suited to say it I
Zain
45:43
I don't think respect I think people would respect the honesty I
Carter
45:47
I don't think so I think you get fucked I mean he's gonna be fucked anyways You think
Zain
45:51
think it'd be Kathleen Wynne style?
Zain
45:54
You would have never done Kathleen Wynne as Kathleen Wynne did that moment, which, to remind our viewers, was she came out about two weeks before the election and said, we're not going to win this thing.
Zain
46:05
We're not going to win this thing.
Zain
46:07
You don't remember that? That was a campaign in which Ford
Zain
46:12
Ford won his majority.
Zain
46:14
Andrew Horvath became leader of the opposition. And Wynne came out in a presser and said, we're not going to win this thing.
Zain
46:20
um but then the second part of his elect as many of us as as you can sort of thing and
Zain
46:25
they got clobbered they didn't win the thing um
Carter
46:28
yeah i don't think that that i
Carter
46:31
i don't think that playing pretending that you're going to form government is the way to go
Zain
46:35
i do not think he seems to have given up on that jc so he seems to have at least pivoted a bit so to be a bit more um truthful
Zain
46:43
truthful to the matter sure but also just seem more honest about stakes Stakes, chances, opportunity, action, what they're doing.
Carter
46:50
But I also don't think that they need to produce a list of 26 ridings that they're going to win.
Zain
46:55
Okay, so then, okay. That's
Carter
46:56
That's what they have in their little world. I've
Zain
46:58
I've been advocating for that for a while. But, like, sure, let's say he doesn't do that at debates. What does he do at the debates? And let's finish it off on this. He does what you said and
Carter
47:07
we've said before. He emphasizes the cares. And
Carter
47:10
the only way, you know, this is most likely going to come down to a minority situation, says Jagmeet Singh. And the only way to make sure that the government of the day puts you first is to elect enough NDP members of parliament that we can hold them to account.
Zain
47:30
Last question. Mark Carney, does he ask for a majority?
Carter
47:34
He never asks for anything. He
Carter
47:37
tells. He says that his government, regardless of what happens, he is always going to put the people of Canada first. He's not forecasting. he's not in the business of forecasting the results he knows how this is won you
Carter
47:50
you win by putting the best candidates forward he believes he does he has the best candidates he believes he has the best ideas he believes he has the best and the chips fall where they may we
Zain
48:02
we are going to leave
Carter
48:03
leave the canadians for that yeah
Zain
48:05
and i thank you stephen carter we're going to leave it there that's a wrap on episode 1861 of the strategist my name is zane velji with me as As always, Stephen Carter, and absent is one Corey Hogan, knocking at the doors at 10 p.m. at night. That's how desperate he is to win, I've heard. I
Carter
48:18
I think he's taking brochures. I'll be honest.
Zain
48:21
I feel like that's what he does. I believe it is. You think he's taking brochures out of mailboxes?
Zain
48:28
his own. Are you attesting to
Zain
48:30
He didn't like the brochure. Oh, he didn't like the brochure. What a twist. And we'll see you next time.