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Zain: is The Strategist, episode 1853. My name is Zane Velji with me as always. There's Stephen Carter, and there is, of course, one Corey Hogan. Guys, what's going on? It's an election, Zane.
Corey: It's happened. It's finally happened.
Zain: It's happened. It's finally happened.
Corey: It's here. It's
Zain: now an election. election.
Zain: Here's a question for you, Corey. And we're
Corey: we're
Zain: we're no people to waste time.
Corey: we're
Corey: Is
Zain: Is it an election?
Corey: Or is it already determined? Is it already over? Because the energy is kind of over already, right? I've already put... Carter,
Corey: is it an election?
Carter: It's, oh, yeah, it's an election. It's an election. Every election is an election. Oh,
Zain: Oh, are they though? Even the sweep election. Okay, well, this is good. This is good. We see other podcasts are diving into what happened in today we're going to dive into the question of is this election an election i love it you
Carter: Even the sweep election. Okay,
Corey: you know why i love it because
Corey: because it's
Zain: it's
Corey: it's
Zain: it's because
Corey: because
Zain: because
Corey: because
Corey: it's so uh you know not just fucking the audience around telling them what they came to listen to no
Zain: telling them what
Zain: no who knows
Corey: knows what they came to listen to
Zain: to i have no idea why they came i
Corey: have no idea why they came i shouldn't yeah i shouldn't project what i came to talk about onto what they came to listen to i think this is what you actually came to talk about you know i don't know So let's see. Let's see where it goes.
Carter: Let's
Zain: Let's see where it goes.
Carter: goes.
Corey: Okay, Carter, you're going to – Just don't answer his question. Just
Carter: Okay, Carter, you're
Carter: Just don't answer his question. Just get your own message out.
Corey: get your own
Zain: own message out.
Zain: Carter, you're for the resolution that this election is indeed an election. And, Corey, you are against the resolution that this election is not an election. Okay.
Corey: Okay. Carter,
Zain: Carter, I will let you go first as the affirmative. Please argue why this election, the one that we are currently in, is indeed an election.
Carter: Because the audience is stupid, Zane. I mean, not our audience, but the audience of voters in general are not smart. And as a result, they haven't even started to pay attention yet. So this idea that the polls really are reflecting something that's real and that, you know, it's all already pre-baked, that's just not true. Because the general population isn't even aware that Mark Carney's the prime minister yet instead of Justin Trudeau. There's so many layers to go through. Or if they are aware, they're like, oh, I heard that Mark Carney exists. That's a great thing.
Carter: And they're making wafer-thin determinations. And who knows what they'll be making their wafer-thin determinations on in
Carter: five weeks.
Zain: Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter comes out punching for why this election is an election as the party against the question. Corey, your opening statement.
Corey: Yeah, I'm not sure any election is an election anymore. We've talked a bit about this. I don't think that we have a clue how people change their minds anymore. I think we've seen from a lot of recent elections, including the US presidential, including the Alberta election, including the BC election, that polls at the start are just as or even more predictive than polls at the end. I got a couple of theories why that's the case. So maybe we do most of our deciding in the lead up to elections now, and we're just trying to get those yokels with their wafer-thin determinations in the last bit. But they were always going to determine based on what the people around them said. You know, the people they lend their trust to say, I don't know who to vote for, Jim. Who are you going to vote for? But Jim is made up his mind. Jim is done. Jim is baked. So maybe the next 35 days don't matter, except for the fact that we're now recording three times a week and the content machine must be fed. Carter,
Zain: I don't
Zain: Carter, what ended up starting as a bullshit question might now end up being the greatest podcast episode of all time. It is now singularly up to you, Stephen Carter, to yes and this and rebut Corey's pretty compelling point about why this election is not an election. Listen,
Corey: time.
Corey: singularly up
Corey: to
Carter: Listen, I have to agree with Corey that the polls at the beginning tend to be more reflective of the election outcome than
Carter: than the polls at the end. But his rationale for why is completely wrong.
Carter: So what he needs to understand is that things can move in cycles, right? They move up, they move down, and then they return back to benchmark. Right now, the benchmark is completely blown up. And I'm just dying to know how this actually all unfolds. Will, you know, Mark Carney continue to hold everybody's attention? Will Pierre Polyev be the next Trudeau? These are the big questions that I think this election will actually answer in the course of the five weeks of the actual election. So Carter,
Zain: Carter, your point is that you agree with Corey that polls can be similar looking at the start as what they are in the end. But there's a bunch of stuff that happens that is actually determinant to lead the election back to where it started. Is that the case that you're making here?
Carter: Yeah. Number one is when the election is itself. The election day actually is when all of our communication is targeted. We try and target and communicate with people in the last 72 hours to 72 seconds. Of the actual campaign, and that means that everything returns back to baseline. And that's what I'm talking about, is the actual baseline. So the baseline, we can vary five points up, five points down, but the baseline is right there.
Zain: Cory Carter makes an incredibly compelling case for why this election is not an election, which was the case you were making earlier. Did I change my
Carter: earlier. Did I change
Corey: change
Carter: change my
Corey: my
Carter: my position in
Corey: in the middle? All campaigns go on a loop and
Carter: on a
Zain: a loop and
Zain: and end up where they started.
Corey: started.
Zain: It's
Corey: It's not, it's like, what the fuck is that? Is that your argument, campaigns matter?
Zain: If that's the case, should we just wrap up the entire fucking show and our careers? Should we just leave? I
Zain: I mean – Is that what you're – Probably.
Carter: mean –
Corey: Probably.
Carter: we go back to the Dairy Queen? There's
Zain: There's so many thousands of people that have no idea what you're talking about. I would say literally thousands. And in fact, let's leave it that way. Let's not give them an update. Corey, Carter's now mowing your lawn. This could have been the greatest episode of all time, but he decided to fold. He decided to fold. why
Carter: give
Carter: decided
SPEAKER_02: decided
Zain: why are i
Carter: i got confused yeah
Zain: yeah i'm old it's late at night of course you did it's true yeah by the way your hotel seems marginally upgraded it's got crown molding yeah it's actually it's
Carter: got crown molding yeah
Corey: yeah
Carter: it's actually it's really worse it's actually worse how
Zain: worse it's
Zain: how is it actually worse i
Carter: how is it actually
Carter: i there is no like i had a little office before
Carter: every time i come to this hotel i seem to get downgraded one level yeah i
Corey: yeah i
Carter: i started off pretty good and now i'm downgraded so
Corey: so how's the campaign going a related question you're
Carter: related
Zain: related question you're
Zain: you're
Corey: you're running out of money how
Zain: how
Carter: how he spent all the money we're done you know there's only two weeks left all the contracts are signed everything's done very
Zain: you know there's
Zain: very reasonable hang out
Carter: reasonable hang out now yeah
Zain: yeah of course uh carter uh you have made the point that cory was trying to make so i'm gonna ask cory to make his point rather than you make it for him cory why why do you think you mentioned this earlier why do you think polls during a campaign might be more reflective at the beginning rather than the end Well,
Corey: Well,
Corey: I got two reasons for that. Well, probably more than two, but let's start with- Is one of them
Zain: start with- Is one of them the baseline?
Corey: No, one of them is not the baseline. The boop-boop,
Carter: baseline.
Zain: baseline. The boop-boop, everything is everything. Life is a circle. Campaigns are a circle. Nothing changes. There is no God strategy.
Corey: Stephen, as long as I've known you, it's been a campaign strategy of yours that when there's a poll in the field, you get all of your supporters to make sure they answer their phone, make sure that they're replying to those text messages because you want to show momentum. momentum so everyone's realized that they can manipulate polls they've realized that they can go in and by just putting a little bit of effort into their supporters they can make a poll swing one way or another but it's not real it doesn't mean that more people out there support you or not and so we get whipsawed by the random number generator and by the stephen carters of the world doing things or not doing things based on how the pollster polls in the first place that can affect things and then the other challenge is um it's just become a lot harder order to poll people so this you're getting increasingly selection biases which means people are increasingly having to do all sorts of wild weightings and as those weightings go on as there's a million polls in the field the demographics that are least inclined to answer polls become pretty fatigued and they become even less likely to answer polls and you end up with these extremes and so polls start to reflect enthusiasm i think more than they should as a result because everyone's like, fuck, the 18th poll from Ipsos, I think I'm over it. Except for the people who have been told by the Stephen Carter on their campaign, make sure you answer that poll, make sure you say that our candidate's the one.
Corey: So I mean, I think that's a reality that pollsters are now contending with.
Zain: So in some ways, do each of you expect this race? Like, this race, is it a test of this theory, Corey? Or do you feel like it's going to naturally pick up a certain narrative arc as it relates to Team A is ahead, Team B is behind. But by single digits, Team B will come close enough to Team A. They will say that they're now ahead. They will use that as a momentum builder. It will be an excuse to spend more money. And then they'll fight. Do you think this narrative is pre-baked or just the outcome is pre-baked? I guess is what I'm getting at.
Zain: Potentially. A little
Corey: A little of both. Look, I just want to say that this election is such a wild one. All the rules are broken. The players have changed. If there was ever a time that's going to make this particular theory of mine look dumb, it's this one, right? But we do have a little bit of data that suggests maybe
Zain: I just
Zain: If there
Corey: maybe that won't be the case. And just to be clear, the theory is that the election is not an election. The election itself is not really – we used to say campaigns matter. Maybe they don't anymore, right?
Zain: that won't be the case. And just to be clear, the theory is
Zain: I prefer the election is not an election. Okay. That sounds more authoritarian.
Corey: I prefer the
Corey: Yeah. But I do think that we all have our beats. The media has their beats. The campaigns have their beats. streets you're going to see in week one one party is dominating the narrative based on who started strong right and then in week two oh is something happening maybe the start is weakening here right and then the media will push towards the narrative of the other team doing better and finding their footing and moving forward then you're going to have the debate and the debate is going to confirm the point of view that was probably there at the start and before you know it you're in the close out week and it just feels like chaos and nobody knows what's going on and everybody gets a little little nervous about calling anything in a close election and it could be anything too close to call you know yes they're ahead based on the polls but the polls have been wrong before and you get the same story and then the result comes in and the result will probably be not too distant from where it is right now however that being said you
Corey: you can be pretty fucking close to where the result is right now and get very different outcomes because it is quite close you know the poll of polls probably has the liberals up a point or two conservatives
Corey: conservatives down a point or two you
Corey: you only need need to be one or two points wrong in one direction to throw that from like liberal majority to conservative minority, or maybe even more. So let's not overstate it either.
Zain: Carter, you're shaking your head. And then I'm going to get into strategist questions. Like only we can go ahead, respond to Corey, and let's just jump into it then.
Carter: Oh, I mean, just Corey's just wrong.
Carter: I mean, campaigns
Carter: campaigns do matter. We literally are just finishing a campaign where
Carter: where the liberals started a leadership race, where
Carter: where they were talking about about how holding the Conservatives to a minority would
Carter: be a significant victory. And
Carter: And now at the end of that leadership race, at the end of that campaign,
Carter: campaign, all
Carter: all of a sudden, Corey's saying, well, we could shift from a liberal majority to a Conservative minority. That's because campaigns do matter. This campaign is matter. You're proving Corey's point, though.
Corey: is matter. You're proving Corey's point,
Corey: I mean, you're talking about a party election. You started by saying people make wafer-thin determinations based on nothing. They're not paying any attention, and yet—
Carter: saying people make
Carter: nothing.
Carter: paying any attention, and yet— You've stolen a bunch of my best work.
Carter: And I said at the beginning of this, I'm opposing you on everything. You
SPEAKER_01: I said at
Corey: You did. And it's been a little tricky when you've
Carter: And it's been a little tricky when you've used my own words through
Carter: through two consecutive arguments. I'm
Zain: I'm a master of what I do. Carter, let me allow you to make some original thoughts, some new thoughts for a change. Okay, yeah. Carney launched. Pierre launched. Great. Who cares in some ways? Go to other podcasts to find out what happened, what it means. I think I want to dig into what I think is most interesting here, which is the go forward and a little bit of retrospective simply on things that we can do. Nice hack, Corey. Thank you. Carter.
Carter: what I do. Carter,
Carter: for a change.
Corey: change.
Zain: It's a good time to remind people we have video.
Corey: to remind people we have video.
Zain: Canada first for a change. The
Zain: conservative slogan.
Zain: Pitch perfect or a slogan by committee that is trying to tag in multiple things for the moment while also bring back what they want this election to be about change. Give me the Stephen Carter brand analysis here. Corey, I'm going to ask you the same, and then I'm going to ask both of you to make it better.
Carter: Say it again.
Zain: Canada first for a change. That
Carter: is really horrific. And I say that as someone who hates slogans to begin with, but that really, it's taking two slogans and smashing them together like
Zain: smashing them
Zain: like a minotaur. Is it the human wall of slogans? I feel like it's a human wall of slogans. Oh, it's
Carter: like a minotaur. Is it the human wall of
Carter: it's a human wall
Carter: slogans. Oh, it's not even that good. The human wall at least has a purpose.
Carter: Canada first for a change. change like you're trying to be the change candidate like i get that everybody wants you to be the change candidate that's makes perfect sense but why add it into a slogan canada first like end up to to mimic donald trump on you know america first canada first i mean i guess you lost out on canada strong so now we've got canada strong canada first for for
Carter: a change i
Carter: i mean it
Carter: it really does feel like it's smashed together like you know some sort of a donkey it
Zain: also really I really felt like you were hearing it for the first time on this show. Corey, Canada first for a change. Can you say it again?
Carter: for a change. Can you say it again?
Zain: Yeah, Canada first for a change, Carter.
Zain: Yeah, Canada first for a change.
Carter: first for a change.
Zain: Yeah, yeah.
Carter: yeah.
Zain: Corey, is it perfect? Does it combine two things and also mean its own thing? Or are you also having similar gripes to Carter? And I actually want to put you guys on a project to make the conservative party slogan better. So put your thinking caps up in a second. But, Corey, give me your analysis first. Well,
Carter: is
Corey: put
Corey: Well, if that is actually their slogan and not just an attempt to put two slogans next to each other, they're out of their mind. For starters, you
Corey: you should be careful if the slogan sounds like if it's applied to you. They're trying to say it like, let's put Canada first for a change. But you'll tell you something, the
Corey: the word let's isn't in there. And even if it was, the us of that would not be very clear. And you can easily interpret that as Pierre
Corey: Pierre Polyev is putting Canada first for a change. Normally, he wouldn't put Canada first, but he's going to put Canada first for a change. So that's, that's problem number one. 100% my thinking. 100
Zain: one. 100% my thinking.
Zain: 100% where I was at the whole time. Yeah, like,
Corey: where I was
Corey: time. Yeah, like, it's just not... Pierre used to put himself first. But now, for a change, he's going to put Canada first, right? Yeah, for this moment, he's not able to. Okay,
Zain: not... Pierre
Zain: a change,
Zain: Yeah, for this
Zain: Okay,
Corey: Okay,
Zain: Okay,
Corey: keep going. It's not great, right? The other challenge with it is it's just – it's too many things. You're trying to have your cake and eat it. Message discipline is not putting your message into everything you say and in the process muddying every other message. That's a very facile view of message discipline. Message discipline – I always – I like to describe it as it's like sculpting, you know? So there are – you can paint and paint is adding layers onto things, right? You've got first layer of paint. You go, you put on your second layer of paint, third layer of paint. more detail work until you've got a picture that is not what messages are you do not keep adding to messages until you've got everything that you could possibly say message discipline is sculpting message discipline is saying what can i take out of this to leave only what's essential and you don't you don't have two messages you have one message the other way to think about key messages is this if key messages are like locks on a door one is usually pretty good two Two, you're getting into a weird place. Three, you're in a bad fucking neighborhood. And right now, the conservatives are in a really bad neighborhood because their slogan has two messages. They are bombing all sorts of messages out there. They still haven't figured out what they're doing, and they don't have time to figure
Zain: figure it out. And we talked about the sneaky Carbon Tax, Carney, weak Brookfield, like, right? Like all that. Sure. That's their current message track, weak Brookfield, just like Justin Carbon Tax, right? Like they've been going everywhere. everywhere and
Corey: it out. And
Corey: Brookfield, like,
Corey: Sure. That's
Corey: and it seems like it's but can i just say it's not even just the words it's like which pierre pollievre is it going to be today is it going to be the ball busting dick is it going to be guy smiling with his kid is it going to be the guy awkwardly posing next to a desk in a quebec you
Zain: and it seems like it's
Corey: you know french language ad they
Corey: they have not figured out what they're about and i think that's going to ultimately if they lose this campaign we're all going to look back and say of course they did because they were unable to pivot and they were unable to find a message to work
Zain: carter how
Zain: how would you start making something like this better what would stephen carter have recommended in the room if canada first for a change was presented and pitched uh in the in the what is it war room brand room whatever room this was pitched in well
Carter: i would say what is it we're actually trying to get down to right like cory's right you pare it back you pare it down like when you say canada first what do you actually mean when you're saying canada first and then i'd start playing with a little bit like and so actually while cory was talking and i I wasn't paying attention to him, I
Carter: I started to fiddle with it. What does it actually mean when I say Canada first? It actually means you first, you first, Canadians first, you Canadians first, and then I went to you. And
Carter: the whole message that they should be carrying is that this is about you.
Carter: The Liberals have been about the Liberals, the Liberals have been about them, but this campaign is about you, and
Carter: and you
Carter: you want to change, you want Canada, you want us to stand up to the United States. This entire campaign is about you, not about me. It's not about Pierre Palliev. It's not about the candidates that we're running. It's all about our ability to reflect what you want. And that is, it should be at the very corner of what their campaign is because that's what they're trying to say with Canada First. But what they're actually saying with Canada First is Trump.
Carter: And what they're actually saying for a change is
Carter: is unknown.
Carter: known it's
Carter: but it's trump words
Carter: trump
Carter: words trump words that seems to be coming out yeah
Corey: that
Zain: yeah carter's pitch trump words uh cory um you are responsible as we have been multiple times for taking carter's uh wisdom and molding it into something that that clients can pay us for uh what would you take trump words uh and make it into if you're helping the conservatives the
Carter: um you
Carter: molding it
Corey: this whole exercise is really one maybe we should talk a little bit about how we actually do this in the real world right how we would do this yeah
Zain: we
Zain: yeah yeah
Corey: yeah yeah
Corey: yeah i think we would
Zain: would we would each do it differently but if we're working on it together i think it's an interesting question for sure like if we were doing it ourselves yeah trying to come up with it and pitch at a meeting i think that'd be different than a collective process if we were the room not to get too different but i think it's important to make mention so let's let's do it as if we were the room yeah
Corey: not to get
Corey: yeah so let's let's just say uh you guys have heard me say this before but often when i'm doing a creative of exercise, I like to take a bit of a double diamond approach. And so first thing you want to do is you want to make sure that you're building the right thing, and then you want to build the thing right. So where Carter was going with what are we trying to say, that's the most essential work to begin, right? What is the brand we're trying to have for Pierre Poliev? What is the overall message we want to leave with Canadians? What are their current and desired sentiments? Like you go through what's effectively a creative brief to understand the the answers to all of those questions and then you go it's called double diamond because you go from narrow to big and then narrow to big so we'd go really big with
Corey: with trying to get everything on the table of what we think pierre is supposed to be then we would distill it into like one sentence maybe a couple of sentences of exactly what we're trying to do in terms of current and desired sentiment brand and then we would just start throwing spaghetti at the wall right like and it's hard not to jump immediately to spaghetti but my caution to anybody out there doing this is it's not going to be a very focused or useful exercise and any success will be accidental unless you know what you're trying to do because carter's talking and the first thing i want to say is like oh maybe putting you first right maybe putting you first is the message the conservatives want to go with and then he's talking a little bit more i'm like oh canada strong maybe we're saying canada strong when canadians are strong maybe that's the message maybe we work in that space and maybe both of those are fine ideas that are building on his is and as you'd say yes and in stephen carter but back the bus up like what are what is he actually trying to say to canadians because even in those two i gave you the putting you first and canada's strong when canadians are strong one of them is a message about canada and strengthening canada to me that feels like you're walking right into a frame the liberals are going to win you
Zain: caution to anybody
Corey: know i think that's part of the reason why the liberals have come back putting you first as well yeah including
Zain: putting you first as well yeah including where they've landed with their brand which has which is that canada strong yeah
Corey: yeah Yeah, or Canada first in the case of the Conservatives. It's funny because months
Zain: It's funny because
Corey: months ago, I pitched Canada strong for the Conservatives, which the Liberals then took, and then the Conservatives went with Canada first. Crazy times. But putting you first maybe is a little more in that space because you've got to have a frame that's separate from the Liberals. So I've ping-ponged around. I've ended up back where we are. But I think the exercise has to start with what the hell are you trying to say? And I think the result that we have right now from the Conservatives is they just went straight to spaghetti. And worse, they said, we are throwing spaghetti at the wall, but every piece of spaghetti we throw has to have this meatball called everything we've said for the last two fucking years. And I don't think you need that. Yeah, I don't think you need that.
Zain: don't think you need that. Yeah, I don't think you need that. Tagged on.
Corey: Bring it home, right?
Zain: home, right?
Zain: right? I got two questions here. One's about Canada, one's about change. Let's talk about the Canada question first. Carter, with
Zain: with your instincts, is
Zain: it a mistake for the Conservatives to lean into the Canada question at all?
Zain: Is Canada and its orientation, strength, first, loved, whatever it is, add whatever word you want, is talking about the country and wrapping yourself in the country a strategic mistake for the Conservatives? Tell me yes or no. I
Carter: think it is. I think it's a trap for them. I think that it's walking into a place that the liberals can own. And I actually think that most voters are too selfish to worry too much about it. I think that they're worried about it right now. But ultimately, they'll return to where they where they normally reside, which is what's best for me?
Carter: What's best for me? How do I get what I want? And that's at the kind of the core of the Rick Bell question, right? Right. Columnist of the Calgary Sun, Calgary Herald, Calgary, whatever, you
Carter: you know, which is, you know, what what do the people want? Right. What do they want? What what what does the guy carrying the lunch pail want? Right. Well, what they want is ultimately selfish. And when you say Canada first, Canada strong, you're not necessarily getting to that selfishness. That's one of the reasons I went to you. I
Carter: I want it to be about you, Zane. I want what you want and what you want is going to change over the course of this election, I think.
Zain: Corey, is it a strategic mistake for the Conservatives to make mention of Canada and run a campaign on Canada, in
Zain: in that sense?
Corey: Well, you've got sword and shield issues we've often talked about. And what we've always said is when it's the other person's message, you might need a good shield, but you're not going to spend all your time proactively talking about it. I think we have to take our own advice there. I think in the times that we're in, you can't avoid the
Corey: the Trump conversation. You can't avoid the America conversation. conversation. But I do think you can avoid it being who's going to wrap themselves most deeply in the flag. And I think if you're the Conservatives, you almost have to, just based on what we've seen in terms of the polling of their own base, right? And they're attempting it. Like, let's not pretend that they haven't figured this out themselves to an extent. But they've got to find a way to make the conversation not about Canada
Corey: Strong, but instead a conversation about, about, hey,
Corey: hey, we have found ourselves, probably even as individuals, to Carter's point, you know, get to the point of like, what does it actually mean to me? We have found ourselves in a very precarious situation because of what the liberals have done. I am going to make your life better. And in the process of making your life better, this whole country will be stronger. But that almost has to be incidental, right? You have to have an answer to the shield question. You don't want to be spending all of your time on it. Isn't
Zain: Isn't it interesting to you, Carter, to Corey's point that their Conservative Party slogan is pretty much top shield plus top sword together,
Zain: right?
Zain: Change is the election question. That's our sword. And we're going to put our top shield, which is Canadiana, like wrapping yourself in the flag, smash it together. That's our slogan. Here we go. That's the election. And are you – do
Zain: you think like – you say it's a strategic mistake, but like what are the implications of leading with a shield? I don't know if we've ever talked about that on this sort, which is like – we talk about in sports metaphors, defense can win championships. Can defense win elections, Carter? And they're leading with defense here.
Carter: Yeah, I mean you're running right into – I mean the old – the way to think of this is the message box, right? What are we saying about us? What are they saying about us? What are we saying about ourselves? what are they saying about you know
Carter: anyways how that all works out and the message box basically the
Carter: the running
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Carter: Conservatives are running right into the liberals' message box. Where the Liberals want to be is Canada Strong.
Carter: The Liberals want to be putting little flags up on their own signs, but
Carter: it's
Carter: it's the simplest thing in the world to do. The Conservatives have got a maple leaf in their logo. Everybody wants to be Canada, but right now the Liberals get to be Canada Stronger, and that strikes me as a strategic
Carter: strategic advantage that the Conservatives don't want to be running into. You shouldn't lead with your shield. But this is one of the reasons I hate slogans, right?
Carter: right? Like what you're trying to achieve is something that's going to last for five weeks that isn't ever going to last for five weeks. It's not going to be, you know, like it
Carter: doesn't have that longevity because ultimately what you want is a message structure, a message discipline, a message functionality
Carter: functionality that enables you to shift over time. I've said my best messaging was always designed for Alison Redford when we had a mother of a young daughter daughter of aging parents because i could put any issue into that message structure and come out a winner but that wasn't a slogan yeah there was no slogan it was a message structure a message discipline that we owned the airwaves and that's what i would do with you it's about you and i would say to pierre pauliev if you're ever up on the stage and you're talking about me you are fucking it up well
Corey: yeah there was no slogan
Corey: i think you're you're so spot on and it's
Zain: it's It's very close. Well, no, but before you jump in, I know you're spot on, but Carter, he used to talk about himself. Then he's now talking about Canada, so ultimately he's going to talk about you, okay? Because he's talking about Canada for a change, okay? He used to talk about himself, but now it's Canada for a change. It might be you for a change ultimately, okay? I hate that so much.
Carter: for a change
Carter: I hate that so much. I hate what you just did there. Corey,
Zain: hate what you just did there.
Zain: Corey, you were complimenting Carter, and I wanted to stop that, so I had to throw in some – That's really fair.
Carter: I had to throw
Corey: throw
Carter: throw in some –
Corey: – That's really fair.
Zain: Yeah, so I'll let people assume what you were going to say, nice things about Carter, and then you can continue on. Well,
Corey: Well, it's very close to what we in marketing would call like a market position, what Stephen just talked about, right? And the idea of a market position, different from a slogan, is that a market position is almost like an internal rallying cry, right? It's so everybody with like absolute clarity, no art, no poetry, absolute clarity. What is this campaign about? What is the brand about? It's true for products too, right? And so what he's done with his Alison Redford, daughter of aging parents, mother of young children, whatever it was. I mean, I'm getting the vibe. I'm not sure I got the words despite you saying it a million times. Yeah, you got the words a little wrong, but
Carter: you saying it a million times. Yeah, you got the words a little wrong, but that's okay.
Corey: That's fine. The point is I was able to understand what it was. And if I was on that campaign, I could then build materials to that effect, illustrating both of those things. That's really important. So understanding your market position is the start of any successful campaign. But we've said this before, so I'm not going to belabor the point, but market positions, slogans, the visuals we use, these are all means to an end. And that end is brand. It's making people feel something about you and in the context of an election specifically, making people feel like you are the answer to the question and you've probably set the question to in the context of all that work. So I
Carter: illustrating both
Corey: I just really do think that in politics in general, the more sophisticated it gets, the easier it is to lose track of the ball on this one. But at the end of the day, you're just trying to make people feel things. You're trying to make them feel an anxiety about a specific issue, set the ballot question, and you're trying to make them feel like your candidate is the only answer. And if you've done your job right, you've set a question where your candidate is, of course, the only answer. And what we're seeing right now from the Conservatives, I think, is an inability to pivot. You're seeing just an awful lot of work that they need to do a pretty aggressive job of winnowing down. And they're forgetting that fundamentally, if you make people feel anxious about the country, you
SPEAKER_01: aggressive job
Zain: job of
SPEAKER_01: of
Corey: you are probably not the answer to that. We've got enough polling on that at this point.
Zain: Carter, you
Zain: know, Corey makes a good point about the conservatives and their pivot. And the question we've been positioning for the longest time heading into this election is, can they pivot? Can they pivot? Can they pivot? Do they have the skills to pivot? Does Jenny Byrne have the skills to pivot? We know, and does Pierre Polly have the skills to pivot?
Zain: It's almost like we're asking the wrong question.
Zain: Do they want to pivot? Like they almost want to, they almost, they almost want to win a certain type of election. And I'm not saying that they're saying to themselves, well, fuck it. If we can't win this way, we don't want to win at all because I think that's a bit of a reach. But
Zain: But a lot of their actions seem to be indicating, fuck it. If we don't – we want to win this way. We want to win on the carbon tax. We want to win on change. We want to win on bring it home, whatever the fuck that means, right? Like can we talk about – Another slogan. What's it? I've never understood. The victory? like and it's also very selfish like bring it home for who us well okay for for canada for me exactly what i wanted to say like
Corey: talk
Corey: Another slogan.
Corey: canada for me exactly what i wanted to say like when i hear bring it home i think sports immediately i think like bring home the win it is a very sports yeah
Zain: like bring home the win it is a very sports yeah very sports term yeah the
Corey: the
Corey: the it that you're bringing home is your own glory and i just don't understand why you would put that on the side of your campaign bus because a huge chunk of canadians are going to interpret it that way i just firmly believe that like otherwise i struggle to think about what the it is like is it feels like it it was an attempt to be clever about like we're building homes so that it we're bringing home is homes no
Corey: no nobody's gonna get that like it's that's
Zain: like it's that's not that's it was it was very it was very funny carter at the pierre rally which by the way several thousand people so the guy could still fill a room you could fill a room do a thing for sure like undoubtedly but he's like talking about his new slogan he's like that's why canada uh canada first for a change and someone's like like bring it home he's like also bring it home yes bring it home almost speak to himself oh fuck we retired that yeah 15 minutes ago please please don't say that please
Corey: was
Corey: a room you could fill a room do a thing for
Corey: yeah 15 minutes
Corey: please please
Zain: don't say that we moved on the tax is scrapped we're gonna retire so do you think that do they do you think they want to win in a particular way rather than just win period or am i getting too in my head by asking you that line of questioning no
Corey: don't say
Carter: they want to be right they want to be right about the carbon tax they want to to be right about all of these different pieces of how
Carter: how bad the government of Liberals have been. And you can sense this when we're in
Carter: in our home province of Alberta and you're talking to the Conservative people.
Carter: It's like, how could the rest of Canada conceive
Carter: conceive of putting the Liberals back in office? Well, I mean, right now, it looks like it could be five, six, seven seats for the Liberals in Alberta. I mean, it's not just one place. It's an entire country that's looking at the Liberals in a brand new light. And Pierre Polyev is just one or two generations of his sloganeering away from Max the Tax. And it is just
SPEAKER_02: And
Carter: sloganeering. The guy has been sloganeering for the better part of three years now. And he's never actually been reaching out to try and build a connection with real Canadians. Instead, it's just been, how do you like my t-shirt now? How do you you like my t-shirt now? How do you like my t-shirt now? And in some cases, it's like a hat that Corey Hogan would be wearing. That type of a hat, it's just sloganeering. It doesn't have any substance. There's nothing there. There's no substance. And I'm a substance guy. I would much rather have a message framework that enables you to actually
Carter: tell a story. And I
Carter: I don't think that jenny burn and pierre polliev have any interest in telling a story
Zain: cory mark
Zain: carney is also strangely perhaps leaning into change it
Corey: it should
Zain: should be a pierre polliev sword carney's not deviating from it suggesting and saying that he's i'm not that kind of liberal man like he's not used those words but it's definitely that vibe am i moving to the middle yeah i'll answer your question i am am i doing conservative things sure i'm gonna steal a bunch of their good ideas is. No taxes on homes under a million. I'm going to take the income tax. It's not going to be deep as theirs, but I'm going to go down that path. Sure. I'll be changed to the party that I am now leading, despite having the same, if not identical front bench, at least in terms of the cast of characters that we've had, wearing the same liberal red. Carter historically has said this is a mistake. Watching it in the first two to three days of the election, is
SPEAKER_02: used those
Zain: it a mistake for for Carney to lean into change, which you'd argue would not necessarily be in his competitive advantage or to his competitive advantage?
Corey: So
Corey: So it does feel to me that's his version of the shield issue. When you look at polling and when you ask questions about what Canadians are looking for,
Corey: you can look at supporting Canada and the Liberals do best. You can look at, do Canadians want change? And Canadians say, yeah, we fucking want change. We're pretty done with whatever's been going on here. So I
Corey: think he does need to reasonably present himself as change. I don't think he needs to lead with it though i think change has to be almost incidental and i do feel he's doing a lot of show not tell in that front getting rid of the carbon tax on day one bringing in a bunch of policies saying yeah sure i'm happy to take some of pierre polliev's policies i don't know that i've heard him use that phrasing but i'm just gonna just done it yeah he's
Zain: just done it yeah he's
Corey: he's just done it right and there's this meme that was going around somebody sent me which i thought was pretty funny it was like trade offer it was from mark carney saying you offer me a majority government and i'll give you the polyeth policies you like and no pure polyeth and uh yeah that sounds like a pretty good deal to a lot of canadians frankly so i think um i think that as long as he doesn't allow like if he's leading speeches being like canadians need change canadians demand change he's fucked up because he's not the obvious answer to that but i do think what he provides when he uses that language secondary and tertiary is the shield that his supporters can then pick up and say you know know when they run into somebody saying like yeah but we fucking need change like oh he's but he's clearly changed look at the change he's done look at the things he's done that's how you do a shield issue in my mind now it's only been a couple of days we'll see if he can show any kind of discipline on this but to me it feels like he struck an okay balance the first couple of days on the change question and
Zain: and by discipline core you mean showing not telling which has long been a carter sort of anthem on on this show well
Corey: well show not tell and also not leading your messaging with Like you're not going out there and saying,
Zain: going out there and saying, I'm Mark Carney and
Corey: I'm Mark Carney and I'm telling you it's all about change and I put change on the side of my bus. That would be suicide. Although, you know, as I say that in 2015, one of the crazy things about that election, now the Liberals were not the government at the time, but
Corey: polling at the end showed that Canadians saw the Liberals as representing the most change despite them having been in power 70 of the last hundred years. So there is also this Canadian amnesia where we're more than willing to forget that the Liberals are the establishment when it interests us.
Zain: there is
Zain: Carter, where
Zain: where are you at strategically with Carney and the change equation at the current moment? Would you still advise against it as a topic of talking about, or have you kind of moved where you are? Well,
Carter: I think that it's not a winner from a point of view of, you know, I'm the real change. Justin Trudeau was there before. Now I'm I'm the new I'm the new boss. And we have nothing like nothing
Carter: nothing alike and nothing similar. I
Carter: I think instead it's more along the lines of the defensive change. Right.
Carter: I
Carter: I am not Justin Trudeau,
Carter: period. Right.
Carter: Right. And then that has been Mark Carney's kind of talking point. It
Carter: It hasn't been I'm you know, I'm not Justin Trudeau. I'm going to repeal everything he's done. it's it's i'm not justin trudeau i think differently than he does and i'm going to take some of the conservatives better ideas you
Carter: know he doesn't need to be running a you know tucking it under and just saying this is going to be the
Carter: the number one thing under my under
Carter: under my my left arm is going to be all the shit i'm going to change and under my right arm is captain canada right
Carter: right like he just doesn't need that kind of all
Carter: all the things i'm going to change type of feel to him he
Carter: he is a enough of change just
Carter: just by virtue of being a brand new leader he doesn't need to be talking about it off the back of the bus carter
Zain: let's move it on to our next segment our next segment star boy stephen carter i want to talk about star power in three different ways i want to talk about mr mike myers making an appearance with mark carney in his first campaign ad i want to talk I want to talk about the star candidates that have been recruited by Mark Carney, two six-footers, and Gregor Robertson and Evan Solomon to lead the pack as their star candidates. We discussed this a few episodes ago, where we talked about the liberals going down other partisan stripes. This is not that, but this is something in the star direction. And then I want to talk about the star power of the first minister of our province, Danielle Smith. We'll end the show there with her Breitbart interview, what that does to the race, the strategies for Carney, Polyev and Smith. And was this actually accidental or was this part of a bigger play for her? I think it's also worthy of examining, given our Alberta sort of context. But let's start with the celebrity endorsement. Stephen Carter, we already have one.
Zain: And we have seen and we have perhaps repeated multiple times ourselves leading the pack on the value or the lack thereof of celebrity endorsements. We've seen what happened to Kamala Harris, that people don't really give a flying fuck what celebrities think. You can bring out the biggest names and the biggest artists and the biggest acts in your country, and it won't necessarily move the needle. Is
Zain: Mike Myers any different? Is this just adding that to the pile, Carter? Or do you feel like you could convince yourself that this is rare and unique for a rare and unique moment? I
Carter: mean, I think that Mike Myers did what he does best, which is he was funny.
Carter: He you know, the ad itself was was a funny ad and it got a lot of free airtime. Did
Carter: Did it change
Carter: anybody's mind? Did it move the needle? I I'd
Carter: I'd be very surprised if it did that.
Carter: But it saved the liberals a million dollars in ad spend or five
Carter: five hundred thousand dollars in ad spend because
Carter: because it was seen by so many people in such a quick time that they don't have to buy the ad anymore. more they just threw it out there on the socials and it was so successful they threw out the second one right away right
Carter: right like these are successful ads um not necessarily because they're changing the outcome of the election but mostly because they are generating eyeballs for for very little money um and i didn't even know mike myers was political did we did we know that aside from the elbows up comment uh on saturday night live i i'd never thought of him as a political select He had
Zain: He had written a book on Canada a while ago and talked about like how he loves the country. So for me, I think it was at least my analysis of it, Carter, is that he kind of probably thought Carney was the best for that sort of broader candidate equation. Once again, perhaps proving that this is a liberal advantage question heading into this election. Should it stay there? Corey,
Corey: Corey,
Zain: Corey, your thought on Mike Myers? Is it just another, you know, this doesn't do anything, move on people? Or do you think this is rare and unique for the moment? I
Corey: don't think it's rare and unique for the moment. I think it's a nice piece. It's fine. It doesn't do any damage. Mike Myers is having such a moment with the elbows up. I gotta be honest, like, when the SNL anniversary came on SNL 50 there, and it was Mike Myers, and he's doing the elbows up at the end, I kind of forgot Mike Myers existed until that moment. Well, if you
Zain: you actually want to go into the Mike Myers lore, the fact that he was canceled after making a terrible and racist movie, The Love Guru, is a real thing. Sort
Corey: is a real thing.
Corey: Sort
Zain: Sort
Corey: Sort of my point, right? Yeah, exactly, exactly. And so we end up in a scenario where Mike Myers is having this moment. In many ways, I think his moment is – This is his comeback with playing Elon Musk. Exactly right. This is as much his moment of coming back into the thing. And in some ways, I understand entirely why he wanted to do it. He has just made himself ultra relevant to a huge swath of the country. And this just pushes that relevance even further. And he does love Canada. I think that's pretty fair. We've always known that about Mike Myers. um but do i think that this has changed anybody's mind i
Zain: point, right?
Zain: his moment is – This is his comeback with
Zain: with playing Elon Musk. Exactly right. This
Zain: known that about Mike Myers.
Corey: i could jesus christ i hope not it maybe it has a couple of people on the margins but no i mean you have a the comment i've gotten most from people in my orbit who've watched the mike myers ad is not this has changed my opinion about anything it's wow mike myers sure got old huh and then i'll usually say something like yeah us too that's that's what happens that's age but so
Zain: so
Zain: so so i agree with that i think i think you and i are aligned in terms of white people age poorly, right? So I figure we're all aligned on that. So I'm going to move on. But
Corey: figure we're
Zain: what if the strategic value here is, and I don't think this is nothing, but you tell me if I'm wrong,
Zain: this shows the liberals have some game again.
Zain: Is there a strategic value in that for the liberals to kind of have a, of course, they've got a sign of life in the polls now with Carney as resulting of Trump and the tariffs, etc. We know that part. the liberal machine having some game again um
Zain: by
Zain: by putting out this piece does that have strategic value to you as a practitioner and campaign manager yeah
Carter: i mean i i thought about the logistics of how to do this and how did we get approved and it's not an easy it's not an easy get so i think that it has real value to the liberals just to show them that they are in fact in the game and uh you
Carter: know a nice celebrity endorsement i'm trying to think when was the the last celebrity endorsement that we saw in canadian politics i think
Corey: gretzky did something with harper am i imagining that is that just what i think gretzky did now because we all think that's what
Carter: that's what you think i don't think that that happened yeah
Corey: yeah i'm not sure it happened either cory we could probably look it up you know why would we we're not that show we could do we could call the
Carter: we could call the hurley burley and find out yeah
Corey: yeah that's a good idea yeah we could ask chat gpt as well and just accept it as canon whatever
Zain: gpt as
Zain: just accept
Zain: whatever chat
Corey: chat gpt says probably
Zain: gpt says
Zain: probably
Corey: probably
Zain: probably
Zain: makes good sense okay
Corey: okay
Zain: okay so So that's where we are on the Mike Myers situation. I'm not going to ask you guys to predict if we're going to see any more celebrities, but I might down the road. Let's talk about the other section of stars. Corey Hogan, I'm going to start with you. Star candidates. Where
Corey: okay so
Zain: are we at these days with them? We've been talking about it, like, and they've emerged. Give me a sense of, A, do you think these folks qualify? Just throwing out a couple of names. The Soheys of the world. The Amarjeet Sohee, the former minister and now mayor of Edmonton. The Evan Solomon, former CTV journalist. journalist, Gregor Robertson, former mayor of Vancouver. There are others, but I'm going to throw these three into the mix, just to get the conversation started. Where are we at with star candidates? Is this useful to the liberals strategically? Would you have gone further recruiting for star candidates? What do you kind of make of this? All
Corey: All right, well, let's talk about, there's two types of star candidates in my mind, right? One is star candidates who have had political office before. And one is people who are just such big names, they're star candidates. And often you can be both, right? right? I think Gregor Robertson counts as one. So he certainly does in Edmonton. Evan Solomon is one of those two categories, right? He's the name that people know. The benefit of a political star candidate is they can run an organization. They will get volunteers out. There's some enthusiasm. And frankly, they've proven they know how to do it at big levels usually. And win. Absolutely. So the conventional wisdom is always, what, a star candidate gets you what, five to ten percent steven that's basically what people say doesn't fundamentally change the game but it's not quite fair to say it becomes a game of inches because five ten percent can be pretty material in an election and even an election that we would deem not that close becomes either very close or flipped based on a star candidate being in there the celebrity star candidates is a bit more of a crapshoot because they actually they in my experience often run the other way they They are used to being famous and popular and loved, but they don't know how to run a fucking campaign, and it can be very difficult for them to reconcile the actual grunt work of being a candidate, which, let's be really clear, is not glamorous. It's knocking on a lot of doors. It's making a lot of phone calls. It's going around and getting yelled at by people in church basements as, you know, a woman with enormous mole on her face is spewing chicken from her chicken salad at you as she's talking about an issue that's not even in your jurisdiction. like this is the reality of politics and stars have a lot of trouble with that in my experience and so sometimes they can cut back the other way but they have a halo and the hope is that that halo gets them more votes as well like more people will come out i really think the real benefit of star candidates generally speaking is if there is vote to be consolidated if you have a situation i'm going to use an example here let's just say i where's so he running i forget the writing
Zain: one is
Zain: Gregor Robertson
Zain: name that
Zain: levels usually. And
Zain: what people
Zain: Southeast, Edmonton Southeast. So this is a new South Edmonton riding. That doesn't even matter, I don't care. My point is
Corey: Edmonton
Corey: So
Corey: Edmonton riding. That doesn't even matter, I don't care. My point is this. In Edmonton Southeast, if
Corey: if there was going to be a vote that went to the New Democrats and a vote that went to the Liberals, and the combined value of that vote would have given the Liberals or the New Democrats the riding, by having a star there, you are signaling viability in a huge way, and most of that NDP vote is going to run to Sohi, because they're going to see him as clearly the best option, rather than two people they have never heard of before. So that's the real value of star candidates, in my opinion. Carter,
Zain: what's the value? Where are we at in the 2025 world with star candidates? And then let's talk about the question of, is this a good haul for the Liberals, a good and useful haul for the Liberals? Well,
Carter: it's interesting. I mean, Christy Clark announced today that she's definitely not running. So you did see, you know, there's been some gets and some not gets. Zane, you're not on the list. You're not on the list.
Corey: You're not on the list.
Carter: Corey's not on the list. I'm not on the list. So it can't be that great for the Liberals, you know, or the Conservatives for that matter. Although Jeremy Nixon failed candidate in Calgary Skyview is now running in Calgary Confederation.
Corey: Corey's not on
Corey: So it can't be that great for
Carter: Obviously a star. I mean, I think that star candidates are in some ways overrated. Corey makes a really good point about organization and the ability to organize. You know, I've been there when, you
Carter: you know, like Joe Clark runs
Carter: runs in Calgary Center and it turns into something
Carter: something of a star. But it also draws the volunteers from every
Carter: every other war, every other riding into yours and really can, you know, limit
Carter: limit the impact of the quote unquote non-stars around you. so there's there's some advantages and some disadvantages i don't think that these are great stars i don't think that these are you know people you look at and say these
Carter: these are really changing the the face of things i like evan solomon a lot i you know i think that gregor is great um i think that emergit so he uh well he needs to be doing something in the next year so you know this is this is uh it's not like it's not a great not a great crop of of stars but i don't think you need a great crop of stars if you're mark harney i think i said that last time uh this star candidate era may be over
Corey: cory
Zain: cory what
Corey: cory
Zain: the hell is our premier doing oh
Zain: man you know or i guess what the hell did she do two weeks ago that has now made its way into week one of the the federal election race to put it clear and i can give the background context unless you just want to go cory and i'll just let you go if you look
SPEAKER_02: of the the federal
Corey: federal
Corey: look i think danielle
Corey: smith has been a bit of a roller coaster on this issue obviously her going down to meet and meet is an exaggeration but going down to mar-a-lago going to the inauguration um her regular visits on fox news where she seemed to be a little too cozy with a worldview of donald trump's right was somewhat replaced about a month ago with a little bit more of a hard-lined you know no i'm canadian too i'm on team canada and i was feeling so good about that version of danielle smith i was so happy that she had gotten on board i didn't care that it took her a while to get there we were one nation you know it was it was feeling okay and then i think i'll just say like i'm just so gutted
Carter: going to the
Corey: that that she decided to take this route with uh breitbart and she put party over nation it feels like it really like when you're saying i've asked a foreign leader to take some action so that this party benefits even though you can certainly say that uh stopping the tariffs would also benefit canada in some narrow sense like what you are essentially doing is saying i i am kin with you and i am asking you to intervene in a way to make the conservatives win and that really does does feel like selling out this broader sense of Canada and that team Canada that she's been on. And that's
Corey: that's really disappointing to me. And it's really sad. And, you know, I guess to any Canadian listening who's not an Albertan here, and frankly, every Albertan too, that
SPEAKER_01: every
Corey: that is not, whatever you fucking think, that is not what this province is about. Like, look at any poll on this issue in Alberta. And it is, like, we're there, you know? And sure, there might be a couple more people here who are not there than other parts of the country but we're saying instead of a 90 10 issue it's like an 88 12 issue right 85 15 issue like we're there that the universal popular view in alberta is we are on team canada and i wish our premier would reflect that view more honestly more purely and i just i think it is a real tragedy that
Zain: wish our premier
Carter: premier
Corey: that that is not happening it really bums me out and like I'd like to be funny. I'd like to be sharp about it. I'm just sad about it. I'm fucking sad that our premier is taking this approach.
Corey: Carter? You
Carter: mean our treasonous premier? Do you mean the one who's collaborating with the United States instead of collaborating with the Canadian premiers? I mean, I agree with everything Corey said, except I'm not sad. I'm angry.
Carter: I wish I could say I was surprised. But Danielle has chosen to behave in the most negative fashions. And I don't understand it. I
Carter: I don't understand who's advising her and I don't understand why she's listening to them. To advocate for the interference of a foreign government in our election is beyond the pale. And she knows that she's supposed to be better than that. She's not better than that because it turns out she's a terrible, terrible leader.
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SPEAKER_00: Terri Hart, and this is The Heart of It All, a podcast about navigating the messy, beautiful, complicated realities of caregiving for our aging loved ones. Every week, I sit down with experts, caregivers, and families to talk honestly about what it means to support an aging parent. If you're a caregiver or you want to know what to expect when you inevitably become one, you're in the right place. The Heart of It All, that's Hart spelled H-A-R-T. new episodes every week wherever you get your podcasts acast
SPEAKER_03: helps creators launch grow and monetize their podcasts everywhere acast.com cory
Zain: cory what's the i'm
Zain: gonna put you in this position because i think it's it's it's appropriate for the pod though
Zain: though i i'd want to acknowledge the the fact that you're saying you're sad about this what's
Zain: what's the play here if this isn't a mistake by Daniel.
Corey: What's the play?
Zain: play?
Corey: play?
Zain: play?
Corey: play?
Zain: play? What's a strategic play if this isn't an error?
Corey: if
Corey: if this
Corey: Yeah, I think you say, no, of course, my goal is to reduce the tariffs, to push the tariffs off as long as possible, to get Canada as much time as possible. Of course, we could use the 35 days of freedom from the tariffs, even if it just allows us to pivot more. When I'm talking to Breitbart, of course, I'm going to put that in conservative frames. Of course, I'm going to use whatever context is most appropriate to move that ball forward, whether I'm talking to officials in Washington, DC, whether I'm talking to right wing media outlets, of course, my goal has never deviated, which is to remove the threat of tariffs and reduce the threat of tariffs. And that's exactly what I did. And I'm not going to apologize for that.
Corey: That's what I think she would say. I think we've even seen versions of that, right? Right, right.
Zain: right.
Corey: I
Corey: I just I
Corey: don't know. Let
Zain: Let me let me let me ask you the question different way. What if it's not about what she's going to say? What do you you think she's actually could be up to let me put it that what do you think she could be up to if this and let me i don't want to lead you to an answer that i might have in part but like you know when she meets with carney she adds nine more conditions on the back end of that this is
Corey: Let me
Corey: adds
Corey: adds
Corey: this is multiple of which need to
Zain: is multiple of which need to open up the constitution to even consider let alone none of them are gonna like so exactly so she she adds a bunch of other like we're in a unity crisis man if you don't fucking do this in the first six months you're in we're in a unity crisis so i don't want to lead you down that path but do you feel like this is related to that do you feel like she's trying to make the case lay the groundwork for the case that that that we might be into a national unity crisis or that alberta wants in or out like whatever that version looks like i don't see sound crazy but where it does where the premier's saying saying crazy things carter and i i want to take her for her word in some ways rather than being like she made a mistake here okay
Corey: alone none of them are gonna like so exactly
Corey: does where
Corey: i want
Corey: okay look i think it's pretty fucking simple it's occam's razor she wants to have a conservative government right we don't need to look very hard we don't need to squint she's being hard on mark carney and saying mark carney will be bad because she thinks that helps pierre pauliev she's telling the the u.s government to do things because she thinks it helps pierre pauliev she wants the conservatives to win i don't think we need to look too much further than that and i think any You know, I think if Pierre Polyev was the prime minister, we'd probably see a different version of Daniel Smith. I'm not saying all behavior would entirely change. But I do think we need to expect more from our politicians. And we need them to set aside partisanship at these like incredibly dangerous times that we find ourselves in. And you need to, you actually need to put nation first. And as voters, we actually need to hold people account to those kinds of things. And all parties to account, you know, not just the conservatives. Also, you know, any liberal gamesmanship on this, any new Democrat gamesmanship on this. Like, let's be – we're
Corey: we're at a serious point and we need serious people to act in a serious fashion. This is not acting in a serious fashion. Carter,
Zain: Carter Coring makes a compelling point that, you know, this is easy. She wants Pierre Polyev to be our next PM. We don't need to look further than that.
Zain: Do you?
Zain: Maybe I want to.
Zain: Like, like, you know, like, like, can
Corey: like, can
Corey: can
Zain: can
Corey: can
Zain: can I? Like, can I? Because what she's laid down? Can I say the following statement? You tell me if I'm being crazy, that Danielle Smith may have a plan here to break up the country that she may want to be out that she may want elements of 51st State vibes in Canada. Like, she's laying the track. If you follow it, the other Occam's razor here is that this Team Canada approach isn't her thing, that her first reaction was her thing, was to go down, was to appease herself to Trump, was to carve out Alberta. Carter, does this just prove more of that in your mind? Well,
Carter: I think that sometimes a simpleton is just a simpleton, Zane. And
Carter: And in this particular case, a simpleton who wants a government to
Carter: to be conservative is doing whatever she thinks she can do in
Carter: in order to protect that. And it includes going down and spending quality time with Donald Trump and trying to, you know, placate him using whatever words and language she needs to. And that includes going on Breitbart and saying things that are utterly ridiculous. My my view on this is that this, you
Carter: you know, she's a simpleton who is a politician that leads a province and she doesn't understand what she's trying to achieve. She thinks in simple terms and could be the largest mistake we've ever made in electing a premier.
Zain: Corey, jump in here, and then I've got some strategy questions on Danielle Smith for both of you.
Corey: Yeah, I don't think Danielle Smith is a simpleton. I think she is a bubble, and I think that she believes something so strongly that it actually defies reason in terms of the extremity of her conservative worldview. view i mean by all means be a conservative but like test it against like you know your senses you know as the rational world unfolds in front of you and i do think it's a bit of a disservice almost to throw her into that bucket here i we've got to treat this seriously but that also means we have to treat this seriously we can't fall into these these these massive divides and and yeah we're allowed to be mad we're allowed to be upset at the premier and frankly if you want a defender you go ahead you're allowed to do that too but let's do this in a way that doesn't just fall into cliches okay let's let's talk about the actual issue that's in front of us here and let's talk about how we are going to change
Carter: is a bubble,
Zain: let's talk about the actual issue
Corey: the course for this province and and i don't necessarily even mean changing government i mean we've got to we've got to change this mindset where all of a sudden it's always a like she's not the first premier who's threatened national unity crises with canada frankly fucking like yes of course jason kenney did that but so did rachel notley does anybody else remember when she was trying to turn off the taps can we please change the channel as a province here can we please grow up as a province here we are a landlocked jurisdiction separated
Corey: separated by a mountain by three mountain ranges to the ocean like we're not we're not a we're not a viable independent country we're part of a nation most Most of us are from elsewhere in some way, shape, or form over time. Like, let's just – this is so dumb, I guess, is what I'm getting to.
Zain: Now Corey is just saying no, and I want to say yes. I think we can do it, Carter. Okay? I think we can become our own thing. I'm into that now. Just because Corey said no. The three mountain ranges is what sold me. I'm like, fuck that. Yeah, exactly. That's pretty
Carter: that. Yeah, exactly. That's pretty easy to get over. Yeah,
Zain: Yeah, that's fair. Hey, Carter, what's the right frame here in your mind out of these two? And then you could add others if you think that's correct in terms of attacking Smith, That this is foreign interference, that she's propagating, she's stimulating, whatever, foreign interference, or that she's anti-team Canada? What's the right angle in your mind here to go after Smith? And then I'm going to chat with you guys about whether Pierre's response was good enough and how Carney should go after her, if at all. I
Carter: that's fair. Hey, Carter,
Carter: think she's cultivating foreign interference, has a better
Carter: better play to it. I mean, this is someone who literally asked the leader of a foreign government to act in a certain way that would influence the federal election. I'm not sure that anything else could define foreign interference more.
Zain: Coy, is it that in your mind? Is that the tip of the spear? I
Corey: I
Corey: don't even know if you as Carney need to do that. I think the media is certainly willing to make that line of questioning. You know, one of the things, we did jump past the launch events and I'm totally fine with that. But I will say, what I was struck with watching the launch events is that the
Corey: feeling, you know, I'm sure somebody could, you know, give me a list of all of the questions and say, Oh, no, no, you're not right. The weight wasn't how you felt it. But my feeling was, Pierre Polyev's questions were largely about how do we know we can trust you to stand up for Canada? A lot of variations on that. And Mark Carney's questions were, how are we going to make, how do you feel about these ways that Pierre Polyev is not standing up for Canada? Like, if your goal is to set the frame, day one was such a home run for the Liberals, because everybody was talking not just about Canada and the need to stand up for Canada, but questioning whether Pierre Polyev can. And that was a huge assist, huge fucking assist from Daniel Smith on that particular one, right? Like, I can only imagine the rage that they were feeling behind the scenes there. But then you pile on Doug Ford, clearly not enthusiastic about Pierre Poliev, a lot of reporting that was coming out over the weekend of the conservative war room saying, how do we get a message to Donald Trump to not make it look like we're too chummy? And then, of course, that very thing happens. So there's a lot of conjecture as to did the conservatives succeed at doing that? Like, this is a nightmare start for them. And so as they are dealing with this immolation, my point remains, I don't need to do anything as Mark Carney. I think I just sit back and I don't get accused by the Corey Hogan's of the world of trying to be partisan about a matter of statecraft, right? Just let the media eat the guy alive. They're doing it right now. Why would you intervene? Carter,
Zain: lot of reporting
Zain: Carter,
Zain: did Polyev do enough to distance himself from Smith? His response was, and I'm going to paraphrase here, people can say whatever the fuck they want. I'm Pierre Polyev. I'm the one who speaks for myself. Strong message, at least in terms of how he presented it. Compelling enough message and enough to get folks off his back that Daniel Smith does not speak for me. Yeah,
Carter: I mean, I think in some ways it is. You know, it does distance himself from those
Carter: particular comments. But I
Carter: don't
Carter: know what else he would say. You know, like, Danielle really had a point, and I'm glad she made it.
Carter: You know, like, that's just not... What else
Zain: What else would he say,
Corey: say, Corey? Do you have something to add? Look, I'll just say this. I am not Danielle Smith. Totally agree with her points, though. It's not a strong message when you're saying, but I don't agree with her on that point, because he did say that
Corey: that there was some credence to her demands to Mark Carney. Like, she is really fucking this up for him. We can all agree on that. Like, I don't agree with the way Stephen has framed a lot of the stuff about Danielle Smith, but we all agree she's fucking things up for Mark, or not Mark Carney, for Pierre Polyev. She's handing the prime ministership to Mark Carney. So I'm sure he's just hating it. And no, he did not do enough, because he can't do what's required to be enough, which is to say she's wrong, and she was wrong about all of these things. We're rapidly approaching the point, though, where in a moment of crisis, he's going to have to repudiate way more of her platform, and I mean, platform in the broadest sense here, because he has dragged his heels on this a little too long. He's in a lot of trouble with her. That's a big problem for him. That's about as big of a problem as they get.
Zain: the way Stephen
Zain: but we all agree
Zain: Carter, let's move it on to our over, under, and our lightning round. Stephen Carter, do
Zain: do you expect another Daniel Smith bomb to enter this election, whether it be about this topic or another, perhaps even associated in the timeframe between now and the end of April?
Carter: I would
Carter: would be reluctant to hazard a guess as to what it would be, but I suspect it will be health care.
Zain: Oh, that's interesting. Corey, do you think another Smith bomb enters the election race?
Corey: Absolutely, because we're seeing there's a bit of a time delay on them. This Breitbart interview was weeks ago. And what you're going to find is in her cavalcade of U.S. media announcements, cavalcade of discussions with U.S. officials, there are probably things we just don't know yet and that will come out down the road. And I also, I
Zain: Breitbart interview
Corey: feel like she can't, she kind of can't help herself. That's
Corey: That's what we're also seeing here.
Zain: Corey, I'll stick with you for the next one. And let's leave it on Daniel Smith for a second. Give some advice to the liberals in terms of how to package the Smith stuff for paid. Not using Carney, but
Zain: but if they were to use it for paid and target it, how would you advise that they do it? And maybe the question is more binary. Would you advise that they use this as a campaign – negative campaign asset heading into week two of the campaign? pain
Corey: um i you look at the easiest laziest probably most successful version of this is to take the audio of her from breitbart and then transpose it with her saying i transpose it with uh poly i've saying i i agree with a lot of what daniel smith has to say right how fucking hard is that very easy and uh it's just a matter of picking your favorite clips at that point getting them in the right context making the audio work without having a video or is there video i think there's just audio if i'm not mistaken and it's just a podcast
Carter: and it's just a podcast so
Corey: podcast so
Corey: so you'll have to have that black and white grainy slow motion footage or something yeah we have ways in the industry right um that's probably the easiest just hang them with their own words don't try to string it together with your own narrative just real quick five second soundbite from her five second soundbite from him supers on the screen that say not right for canada you know whatever you want yeah
Carter: i think a 15 second ad is actually what you want something that's just unbelievably quick but just makes the point boom these are the same people and i would tie it together with trump too you know the the trump aspect of the trumpian nature of what daniel smith is is advocating for shouldn't be overlooked
Corey: i think
SPEAKER_01: think
Corey: think
SPEAKER_01: think a
Corey: a 15 second ad
Corey: something that's
Zain: that's
Carter: daniel equals pierre equals trump there
Carter: problem you know that's it's a circle oh
Zain: just like uh the beginning of a campaign and at the end of a campaign where we start at one point and we end I mean,
Corey: mean, that's a great point, saying none of this matters because it's all going to be exactly what the result was at the start. That's
Zain: That's true. It's going to reveal some things, but it's not going to have an impact. Not going to have an impact. I hate you both so much. Speaking of not having an impact, choose between the campaigns. Who won launch day? Who
Carter: won launch day?
Zain: Yeah. Oh,
Carter: Oh, I think for sure it's got to be whoever has the most fascist bus. If your bus is being compared to fascism, I think you're winning. Isn't that how it usually goes?
Zain: how it usually goes? Did I miss this? Yeah, did I miss this too? could be compared to the uh the
Carter: Did I miss
Carter: I miss this too? could
Carter: be compared to the uh the conservative bus it's all over the social medias you guys what does it say social medias that they think that the the graphic imagery is uh the imagery is fascist style imagery i think that's a bit here's a hand in the air it's
Zain: what does it say social
Zain: they think that the
Corey: i think that's a bit here's
Carter: it's a little much that's that's what the socials are saying cory that's what the social well i
Corey: a little much that's
Corey: well i hate to disagree with the socials but look i think that carnie one to me it's very clear because they're talking about the the issues that he wants to be talking about. And for me, it was all about the questions. Pierre Polyov did this thing where he announced the campaign before the campaign was formally announced. I'm sure they thought that was really fucking clever. It's not even the first time I've seen somebody do that. I feel like Mulcair
Corey: Mulcair did that, if I'm not mistaken, at one point. That worked
Carter: That worked out well for him.
Corey: Yeah, you know, it didn't really. I feel like in 2015, I might be wrong, but I feel like in 2015, he was across the river and he did basically the same thing. But
Corey: the questions, the questions tell you everything about where the mindset is of the nation, and certainly of the media. And it was all issues that are beneficial to Carney all the time. I just think there's no way you can give the first day to the Conservatives. Lots of days left, none of them matter, as we've said, but, you
Carter: And
Corey: you know, they'll
Corey: reveal a few things.
Zain: They'll reveal a few things, which they'll resolve themselves in the time box period. very good.
Corey: time box period. very good.
Zain: We're going to leave it there. That's a wrap on episode 1853 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Belch. With me as always, Stephen Carter, Corey Hogan, and we shall see you next time.
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