SPEAKER_00: This is Strategists episode 1850. I'm Justin Trudeau. With me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Guys, did
SPEAKER_00: did I do that right? Was that correct? Oh
Carter: Oh my God, that's the best one we've ever had. It was really good.
SPEAKER_00: God, that's the best one we've
SPEAKER_00: It was really
Carter: I'm thrilled to have you here tonight. Thanks
Carter: Thanks for coming.
SPEAKER_00: I'm thrilled to be here. You know, I'm just really looking forward to finding out what's next. And, you know, it might be podcasting. I was hoping to get on the show a little earlier. I did email info at thecraspoliticallymotivated.com, but I hadn't heard back from you guys. So I thought maybe I'd just reach out this way and get in touch. Justin,
Corey: Justin, as we talked about before we hit record, that was for liberal leadership candidates. Okay. That was not for just anybody off the street who wanted to be on the podcast. So appreciate it. Appreciate the enthusiasm. But there are rules. I know these things are foreign to you liberals, but there are rules in society. Okay. okay
Carter: enthusiasm.
Carter: listen he's here and he's doing a great job that's all we can ask for he didn't you know mark marnie didn't fucking show up did he he
Carter: didn't and
SPEAKER_00: and i'm here right now and i think you guys are still looking for a host as far as as far as i know so oh
Corey: well we were but i actually got a text from zane like 30 seconds ago while you were doing that i'm
Corey: i'm gonna be honest very performative introduction and so i i think we're gonna have to pick this up again maybe next week yeah Yeah, we're never more than a few minutes away from Zane bailing on us. So stay close. But not not today, my man.
Zain: yeah Yeah, we're
Zain: we're never more than
Zain: stay close.
Zain: Oh, yeah. Hey, what? I'm so I'm so glad I made it. Carter, anything you want to say before we leave to the Prime Minister? You want to thank him for his service or anything like that? Please go ahead. Now's the time. Some
Corey: I'm so
SPEAKER_01: so
Carter: Some of some
Carter: of the last years have been some of my best years. So thank you very much, Prime Minister.
Zain: Guys, we are here. Justin Trudeau is not.
Zain: Justin Trudeau is done as leader of the Liberal Party. First of all, how are you guys you guys may have covered this with jt but uh oh
Zain: oh
Corey: oh good you saved the the can
Zain: can opening save that for you but oh thank you i appreciate that it's like you knew i was coming the entire time um
Zain: um you
Zain: guys been well what's
Zain: been going on we got a lot super good we
Carter: we got a lot super good we
Zain: we
Zain: we
Carter: we
Zain: we got a lot to talk
Carter: talk about
Zain: about
Carter: about
Zain: about
Carter: about yeah
Zain: yeah
Carter: yeah can i
Zain: can i um we do i want to create the uh the agenda for the show this way uh let's focus the majority of it on what we saw over the weekend uh i want to spend most of it on the now what because i think that's way more interesting than what happened but there are elements of what what happened on Sunday. And I'm talking about the Carney landslide victory in the liberal leadership that I think are worthy of a strategist podcast discussion. And then I want to get into the now what. What does he need to do? Some of the moves he's already made, some of the things he's already said. How do they land for you guys? But Corey, let's start with what we saw. And I'll get to the results in a second.
Zain: Maybe I can start with this. Tell me about the production that you saw. What did you make of the liberal production that they put together as part of this leadership leadership result. It was carried by all the major networks. It was streaming online. They had intros for both Carney and Trudeau by their respective daughters. They had each of the candidates having a on-the-floor mic moment that they had. And of course, they had a keynote, one would call it or plenary, by Jean Chrétien, which probably ran 25 minutes more than anyone anticipated except Jean Chrétien. So just to summarize for folks, That was maybe not in that order, certainly not in that order. That was the Liberal production. Corey, what did you make of it? And then Carter, what did you make of it? And then we'll get into the results and et cetera, et cetera.
Corey: except Jean Chrétien. So
Corey: just to summarize
Corey: I mean, I think it was an interesting mix of high concept and low execution, if I'm being frank. There was certainly more Canadian flags at that convention since any convention I can think of, right? right? And the Liberal palette is already very red heavy. It's the color of the party, obviously. I mean, it was just wrapped in Canadiana. You can absolutely see what they were going for, but it didn't entirely hit for me. I feel like they could have spent a little bit more of Ruby Dalla's money on the production values. That probably
Carter: And the
Corey: probably would have worked a little bit better for me. There were some things that felt a little bit janky, but let's be frank.
Corey: They were in the middle of a leadership contest. They pulled it off in lightning time. it is what it is it is it was what it was um and and as well i could see why you'd have somebody like jean-christian speak but
Corey: but maybe somebody should have gone the next step and said hey uh former prime minister jean-christian can i see your speech before you give it maybe i mean i get you're the man but can i see that speech oh there's a whole liberal policy platform in here that the next leader may or may not agree with maybe
Corey: maybe don't say that you know maybe that That conversation could or should have happened along the parameters there. And then there were just some basic things that Carter is more equipped to talk about. Like the lighting seemed very off. Oh, terrible. I think part of it was the massive red light behind them that just was kind of washing everything. And it wasn't a general wash, as my friend Stephen Carter would say. It was
Zain: off. Oh,
Carter: It was not a general wash.
Zain: was not a general
Carter: Not to be confused by General Washington,
Zain: Not to be confused by General Washington, which is a different guy. General Wash, zero slave owners. Zero slaves for General Washington. general washington several slaves too many slaves one would argue too many well what's too many for you zane because i feel
Carter: which is
Corey: feel like one might just
Zain: just
Corey: just saying no
Zain: no
Corey: no
Zain: you can never ask a person to color that question cory
Zain: cory that's i think it's rude i don't think you can i don't know
Corey: it's rude i don't
Corey: i don't know why you get a pass i know edi is dead i
Zain: i know edi is dead i know edi is dead but i think it's still pretty rude to ask a person to color that question to cory it's just okay wouldn't
Carter: i
Carter: wouldn't it be ironic if cory was the one who was canceled on this podcast that would be inadvertent
Zain: inadvertent canceling would be right carter What did you make of the production, general wash, notwithstanding, of course?
Carter: I mean,
Carter: the staging was a little bit too one note with all the red. It was everywhere. It was everywhere you could look and everywhere, every second shot. I mean, some black would have gone very nicely in the room. You didn't have to cover the whole thing in a red curtain. curtain um the the speeches i i actually quite like the you know each of them coming in and doing their own speech uh to the results yeah
Zain: to the results yeah
Carter: yeah yeah i thought that was good i thought that it gave everybody an opportunity to be seen one last time and they kept them to the right length they were less than five minutes long um i i quite liked it i thought that carney's introduction by his daughter uh trudeau's introduction by his daughter uh both knocked it out of the park I do
Zain: yeah i thought
Carter: think that Prime
Carter: Minister Chrétien was just way too long and I'm not sure that a 91 year old I mean I was 91 by the time we finished speaking so you know I'm just not sure that that's the edge
Carter: you want to go with in 1993 we were irrelevant you know so you know I was a little put off by how long he spoke I think if he'd spoken for 5 minutes he'd have been great but
Carter: he just kept going and going going and going and he's not the energizer bunny so it did not work for me um
Carter: um
Zain: um i've got i've got anything yeah sorry add anything and then i've got like three two production questions and then i want to get into the vote in a second i
Carter: i was as much as i didn't like the lighting i i was i was pleased that the set didn't involve a human uh a human wall behind that was my that's good yeah no kidding that's nice a lot of canada flags
Zain: was
Zain: was my that's good yeah no kidding that's nice a lot of canada flags no human wall cory i said these are production questions they're not they're more so questions in retrospect that are not about the result i guess um so let me let me ask you this one is a bit of a production question any
Zain: surprise to see trudeau like
Zain: on stage giving a speech like i know it's conventional but this was a race to run away from trudeau uh any surprise that he got the spot he did in the time and and that he did
Corey: no surprise i don't know how you don't have him at an event like that it's supposed to be a bit of a passing of the torch yes i'm sure that um the people who set up the event really wanted to make sure he had the moment in addition to it being the proper thing in my opinion like listen i i think that there is some truth to what you said and that people are going to be running away from the trudeau legacy the trudeau record i mean one of the most absurd moments in a way was when mark carney and his victory speech said oh and we're gonna like repeal the carbon tax and a room full of liberals madly applauded right
Zain: i
Zain: right totally and i was looking at trudeau because they'd pan Hand the camera to Trudeau in that particular moment and you could study. Do you want to jump in on this, Carter? I
Corey: totally
Corey: Trudeau
Carter: Trudeau in
Corey: in
Carter: I
Zain: I
Carter: I want to say I was also a little disappointed that he talked about cutting spending and then immediately threw in that we're going to keep dental care and pharma care, two programs that I think spend a lot of money without much in the way of results. I was surprised. I mean, he talked about the Trudeau legacy in a lot of different ways, but he
Carter: didn't distance the way that I would. While
Zain: While you have the mic, Corey, just hang on for a second. Were you, Carter, surprised that Trudeau got stage time in the volume that he did or in the time that he did?
Carter: I don't think you get to dictate how long the guy on his way out gets to speak. And apparently you don't get to dictate how long the guy on his way out from the guy on his way out from the guy on his way out gets to speak.
Zain: out
Zain: So very little rules. So no surprises there. How did Trudeau do, Corey? I
Corey: I
Corey: mean, I think he did fine. it is a pretty pat speech if i'm being honest this is the kind of speech you expect from a leader the tears at the start you talk about the legacy you move on with your life you don't you don't hold the stage so long that you're a bother to the person who's coming after you jean cretien take notes in that context i thought the speech was fine it it was not the focus of the night it's not the focus of my memories of the night and that is 100 the way it should on
Zain: on purpose there So there's a reason that Chrétien went after Trudeau and not the other way around, for example,
Corey: that Chrétien
Zain: in your mind. You think that was strategic?
Corey: I don't, I mean, somebody definitely said we don't want it to be the next speech. We don't
Carter: mean, somebody
Zain: somebody
Zain: We don't want it to be back-to-back Carney, Trudeau, whatever. Yeah,
Corey: it to be back-to-back Carney,
Corey: Yeah, I don't know if we needed the 800-hour palate cleanser. Sure, sure, sure, yeah, yeah. But, you know, we're kind of dumping on Jean Chrétien, but he could still bring the fire. He had some great lines. So, like, it just was too much. You know, it was just too long.
Zain: Sure, sure, sure, yeah,
Zain: it
Zain: Yeah, Carter, how did Trudeau do? And just before you answer, he's still on right now. I know he said he left, but he's hoping that I have some sort of aortic heart disease on the show and that he could take over. So he's still on. So just, you know, just, you know, go ahead. Just so you know. Great
Carter: speech. One of the best speeches I've ever seen. He nailed it. You know, his best performance ever. And I say performance in the greatest, with the greatest respect, because I really felt like that was the first time we saw the real Trudeau. because you know i've i've yeah yeah i've
Corey: because you know
Corey: i've yeah yeah i've i've you've long been in the past i've
Carter: long been in the past i've you know been uh critical of the uh
Carter: uh the fakeness of trudeau but not this time no siree bob he
Zain: he brought it he
Carter: he came across you think he should have run for
Zain: you think he should have run for liberal leader if
Carter: he'd run for liberal leader i would have loved to have him as host
Zain: um also not a production question however i'm gonna put it in here because i'll forget otherwise um this
Carter: also not
Corey: not
Carter: not
Corey: not a production
Zain: was a two-month liberal liberal leadership race this This was the shortest leadership race that we've had in this country. Should other parties take note about how short and perhaps how robust and effective it was despite being two months? And do you think they will take note around the fact that you don't need to drag this thing out for nine, ten, eight months in the past? And the liberals, regardless of what you fucking think about them, may have proved that to you.
Corey: leadership
Corey: Oh, I hope they're taking notes. I got to tell you, even two months started to feel a little long in the last couple of weeks. But I wanted to ask, do you think that was just because of the timeline you're living
Zain: weeks. But I wanted to ask, do you think that was just because of the timeline you're living in, though? Is that just because of the political timeline we're living in, which every day seems like a week? Or do you genuinely believe that two months is enough?
Corey: I actually now feel that two months might even be too much.
Zain: We
Corey: We are so used to these long contests, and we have not tested in any meaningful way the ability to do a short contest in so long that when we got a short one, it was an absolute breath of fresh air. I mean, I don't think that the Liberals lost anything by having a short contest. They got a lot of money into the race. They got a lot of interest into the race. I couldn't believe how many people registered to be voters. Yes, most of them didn't vote because they were registered to vote for Ruby Dalla. That's true. 400,000 to 150,000. And she
Zain: 400,000 to 150,000. And she had a good 250 in there, for
Zain: for sure. Clearly.
Corey: Clearly. No, you know what? Actually, on that point, if I can just say, it had 38% turnout. That was despite a pretty difficult voting process. Very difficult
Zain: difficult registration system, yes. It compares pretty comparably
Corey: difficult registration
Corey: compares pretty comparably to the 2013 liberal leadership race where they had 43% turnout without those registration challenges. So, you know, they got as good as they got last time, I guess is my point. They got more people than last time, and
Zain: and they
Corey: they
Zain: they did it all in a fraction of the time. Carter, this is exactly where I wanted to go to, the two things. Number one, because Corey's hit on the memberships, and that's where I wanted to go to next, the attrition. Big deal, not so big deal on attrition. Tell me about that. And then tell me about taking notes for a shorter race if you're another party, provincial, federal, otherwise. Well,
Carter: I'll tell you, the process was onerous. It was onerous for a lot of people. You mean to validate? You validate
Zain: lot of people. You mean to validate? You validate your... Yeah.
Carter: your... Yeah.
Carter: took me a week to vote, which, you know, I had to go back and revalidate myself. And my identity was verified by Canada Post. That went relatively smoothly. But the verification process took some time. And I didn't really understand it, but I was going to vote. And I I was pretty committed
Carter: committed to it. I have a friend who was very committed to it and spent two weeks trying to rectify the vote and was unable to rectify the vote entirely. So this
Carter: this onerous process, I think we have gone too far trying to stop the 1% from people who are going to come in and try and fuck with our processes. We've gone way too far to try and stop them from playing. We're pushing out 15, 20% of the population that wants to vote. So I think that we've gone too far on that piece. I understand why it's done. I don't understand why it was done to this extent. And in terms of, you
Carter: you know, the—I
Carter: can't remember the second half of your question, so let's not worry about it.
Carter: muted, buddy.
Zain: Yeah. Well, I was just so delighted by what you were saying, and I just thought, wow, I need to go on mute so nothing interrupts us. Carter, the two-month contest versus the 10-month contest, for example. Oh,
Carter: Yeah.
Carter: Well,
Carter: interrupts us.
Carter: two
Carter: Oh, that's what it was. Oh, my God. I've done the 10-month contest. I
Zain: my God.
Zain: I think we both have to some degree. Yeah, we all have to some degree.
Carter: we both have
Carter: some degree. Yeah, there is absolutely no benefit to going for 10 months. It appears that the money that is going to be raised in the – because we know when the money comes. It comes right off the bat, and it comes in the last three weeks. It turns out if you take the first two weeks and the last three weeks and add them together, you still get two months, right? Like this is a perfect length of time. everybody should be taking this into account because they still charged that was this the large this is the largest leadership fee i think it's ever been charged by
Zain: by the liberals
Carter: liberals they charged it um
Carter: um was it higher for the conservatives i think it may i think it's i
Corey: i think it may i think it's i think it's the largest full stop oh okay you guys might be right yeah wow i
Carter: right yeah wow
Carter: think it's the largest and they still got four people to well five
Carter: five to pony up 375 000 to make their
Zain: to make their gates you mean like yeah yeah
Carter: like yeah yeah like That's unbelievable. In a race like this for two months, that was an unbelievable thing. And I would suggest to every party henceforward, if you're not going to do a delegated convention, which is still the best type of convention or the best type of leadership, then do a two-month leadership because the liberals have proven that it can be done and it can be done extremely effectively. Corey,
Zain: yeah like
Zain: like That's
Zain: Corey, do we just feel that way? I said because of the political timeline as being one of those things, the Trump generated timeline that is making a day a week feel like a week. But was it also – did two months feel like enough because the result was just known? If it was more competitive, and if it was more competitive on the money raised, on the membership sort of splits, on other metrics, on debates, on internal polling, etc., would
Zain: would we have felt, you know what, I wish Christopher Freeland had another three months of this because she could have really got a groove because all the other metrics were aligned for her, for example. So I just want to stress test this a bit before we jump into why we love the two-month or six-week version of a leadership race versus not, just because of the uniqueness of this one.
Corey: Yeah. Look, I think you could still optimize further from what the Liberals have got. I think you could have had some debates earlier. I know that wouldn't be popular with the campaigns because they're all out hustling for memberships, but I think you could do that. I think you could have forums across the country. There are ways that you could do more, but I think the timeline was great. And as we are talking this out, one of the things that occurs to me is one of the reasons leadership contests were so long is because we built the leadership process for delegated conventions and we just slowly swapped out pieces as we got to one member one vote online voting but we didn't change the fucking timelines and so necessity being the mother of invention when the liberals found they didn't have the time they realized they didn't need the time and that the process actually runs just fine in a one member one vote online voting world with two months all of the rest of that was there for processes we don't use anymore it was to allow people time to to have local meetings. It was to allow people time, you
Corey: you know, delegates who got elected to then plan to be somewhere else for a whole week. Right. And, and that does take time, but it doesn't take time just to go online and watch a few debates and then to vote like that, that just doesn't take the time. And so what we, what we should be reminded by, by this is that sometimes you just got to reinvent something that you've just been slowly tinkering on. Like you need to go and stress test in some ways it's like classic operations management stuff you put this process down you say what parts of it are not adding value and you take those parts out and the liberals took those parts out they took out the doldrums and it worked fine
Zain: Right.
Corey: fine carter
Zain: carter
Zain: carter any final thoughts on on the length of the leadership race before we move on to the landslide result i
Carter: wanted to address the idea that a second or third place candidate would be able to capture um a wave in the second half A more competitive second
Zain: more competitive second or third place candidate is my point. I
Carter: I mean, absolutely
Carter: absolutely true. I mean, I think that Alison Redford stands as an example of someone who caught a wave at the end. But,
Carter: you know, is that really what you want? I mean, you can catch a wave at the beginning, too. You know, waves come and waves go. How long was that Redford
Zain: waves go. How long was that Redford one, Carter, that you ran? Was that, like, closer to, like, the conventional? Two or
Carter: Two or three years of my life, I think.
Carter: No,
Zain: No, seriously, was that closer to, like, ten months, eight months? It was—we
Carter: seriously, was that closer
Carter: was—we started in February. We finished in October.
Zain: Yeah.
Carter: So it was eight months. Oh, fuck
Zain: fuck me. Really? Wow. Yeah. It's like a lifetime. Wow.
Carter: It's like
Carter: Yeah, it was a really hard race. And I'll tell you something. August wasn't great. No one had a good time in August.
Zain: Right, because you're running a race and no one wanted to run a race.
Zain: Yeah.
Carter: Yeah. No, it was very long. Who gives a fuck? At least in July, you're going to whatever K days or whatever it's called. Look, I'll go
Zain: Yeah. No, it was very long. Who gives a
Zain: Look, I'll go further. Go ahead, Corey. And jump
Zain: jump in, and I'll jump in with my thoughts.
Corey: thoughts. To the point of like time in the last minute turn, the time between the two ballots was not eight months, right? And how much of the movement in that Alberta PC race occurred in two weeks? We went from 17
Carter: in two weeks? We
Carter: We went from 17% to 51% in two weeks. That's right.
Corey: two weeks. That's right. So it's certainly possible to change your fate in two weeks within a two month contest, because you can do it in two weeks in an eight month contest.
Zain: it in two
Zain: Corey, would you have, as the liberals, wanted to dominate the airwaves for the conventional six to eight months and then head into an election like we're going to in the matter of mere days or weeks? Or do you like the two-month burst you got heading into an election? Talk to me now about more of that as we get real, and I promise I'll get to the vote results.
Corey: Well, that's not a real choice. I mean, I think that's what parties wish they had. They could have eight months of dominating the agenda. Nobody gets eight months of dominating the agenda. They get exactly the points we talked about. They get the waves. Start of the race, membership cutoff, debates, vote. That's it. That's all you get. And so why spread those across? I mean, that's not how we would run any other communications exercise. We would not just let them languish for a year. We would put them much closer. And
Zain: They could have
Zain: They get exactly
Zain: And
Carter: And we would take our budget and we'd spend our – like we would look at a budget. If we were to do an eight-month communications
Carter: communications exercise, we
Carter: we would not be spending all of our money equally on every week, right? No. trying to get the same level of coverage yeah
Zain: No. trying
Zain: coverage yeah we
Carter: we we would take our money and we'd say okay well we're we're
Carter: we're going to do a spike here we're going to do a spike here this is why we're going to do you
Carter: know we're going to try and get attention in may and then we're going to shift into september and
Carter: and we're not going to push very hard in july and august um
Carter: um but you know like there there's this
Carter: way all the money got spent as quickly as we possibly could because you needed to run a two a two-month campaign. And I think that it works out so, so much better. And, you know, I guess some people may say, well, yeah, but there wasn't enough time for the underdogs to catch fire. Well,
Carter: that's not what the leadership's there for.
Carter: Leadership's not there to allow an underdog to catch fire. Leadership's there to elect the leader.
Corey: Leadership's
Corey: Right. Yeah. Well, and we say this all the time. You create the contest, you create the outcome. Yeah.
Carter: Yeah. That's
Corey: That's fine if you want to say, I'm trying to create a contest where anything can happen. That's fine. I guess that's a choice. Is that really what's in the interest of the party? And frankly, if you had leadership contests a lot faster, maybe parties would be a little less reticent to change leaders. So there's knock-on effects and there's considerations all over the board, but they're not all bad. The idea that you can get a new leader in two months, I think should be liberating for a lot of political parties. Oh,
Zain: Oh, yeah. Let's get into the results, Carter. You know, when I saw that there was 400,000 people registered and only 150,000 people that voted. I was a bit concerned for Mark Carney, because you'd think that a lot of the folks that didn't show up were kind of that soft Carney support, knowing that his campaign had taken credit for a lot of the signups, so to speak. But that was not the case, Stephen Carter. 86% of the vote, domination in every single riding across the country, he won. He won the riding of his competitors handily. He had more More votes, interestingly, I'd say, and more people vote for him in Alberta than in Quebec. Of course, he won both. So it was immaterial but interesting at the end of the day. This was a crushing. This was 86%. This was similar, actually almost identical to the race that the Alberta NDP here had with 86% for Nenshi. And the next place contestant, I believe, was at 8% or so, under 10%. But it was a domination, Stephen Carter.
Corey: a crushing.
Carter: Domination. Talk
Zain: Talk to me about what
Zain: impressed you or is interesting to you with the results from Mark Carney, and then we'll talk about the fate of Christopher Lennon Green and Gold in particular.
Carter: I mean, you know, having won races or 51 to 49, you don't walk in with that. Everybody's behind me. Everybody's going to stand with me.
Carter: 86, everybody's with you. You've got everybody like there is no small faction of people that aren't going to stand with Mark Carney. Kearney. They're
Carter: They're all with Mark Kearney.
Carter: They showed that by, you know, jumping into this so massively, like it is unheard of to be able to win the entire country in this fashion. Normally, the way you would, you know, work
SPEAKER_00: like
SPEAKER_00: like
Carter: work through this type of leadership is
Carter: is you would say, OK, where am I? Where's the weak spots that I can start to really gain some traction?
Carter: traction? Where am I not going to focus? Where am I not going to spend effort?
Carter: And it would appear that the Kearney team didn't have to make that kind of trade-off and
Carter: and if they did make that kind of trade-off and we did this with nenshi in 2010 uh uh zane we didn't pull we didn't drop any brochures in ward six right
SPEAKER_00: right
SPEAKER_01: right we
Carter: right we were quite confident that we weren't going to do well in ward six there was uh two counselors from ward who'd previously represented ward six that were running uh barb higgins kind of had a big a big you know group
Carter: group of people who were supporting her in ward six nenshi won every Every poll in Ward 6, that
Carter: election, because
Carter: because sometimes things just take off on you and
Carter: and things
Carter: things just took off on Mark Kearney. He I think
Carter: think that people
Carter: were hoping for first ballot. People were hoping for 60, 65.
Carter: I don't know that anybody was walking around, you know, saying it's
Carter: it's going to be 80, 86. Was Keto Maggie saying 80, 86 on Main Street? No.
Corey: No. Polling?
Carter: Polling? No, he was not. OK, I just wanted to check.
Corey: OK, I just wanted to check.
Carter: for Keto. Yeah, we feel bad for him. Yeah, Corey, what's
Zain: for
Corey: for
Zain: what's
Zain: what's more interesting to you, the 86 for Carney or the 8 for Freeland?
Corey: Well, so that was 86 in points. He got even more. Yes, he did. On the raw basis, that's correct.
Zain: Yes, he did. On the raw basis, that's correct.
Corey: Yeah. I mean, it was just an absolute domination. And certainly well beyond what I had imagined would happen. I thought it would be 60% to 70%, I think is where I pegged it. That was clearly underestimating the guy. It is fascinating that the percents of points mirrored almost identically the Alberta NDP contest. I think it's one of those great political coincidences. But I also think it's not that much of a coincidence. Parties are looking for saviors and parties are willing to push behind saviors at this point. But there is a day after that saviorship. And I think what we've seen with Nahid Nenshi and the Alberta NDP is it's not a guarantee of general election resonance or success, right? Certainly not in the short term. And all the liberals have is a short term. So what I'm most struck by is that
Zain: it's one of
Corey: we don't even seem to think of it as that big of a deal anymore. Maybe it's just because we're Albertans. But like, we said Pierre Polyev was absolutely killing it at 68%, right? right? Pierre Polyev's numbers look pitiful compared to Mark Carney's numbers here. But there's just this expectation that the leader gets these massive numbers, I think, these days. And that's a weird thing for me, right? Because there are going to be leaders who win limping out with 55%, and they might just forever be toast now. Like, we just might not be able to hold on to a leader who doesn't win by such a commanding margin. That's
Zain: Maybe it's
Zain: That's interesting, especially when you're kind of suggesting that that might be the new sort of political era that we are um we're in carter eight
Zain: percent and eleven thousand votes for christopher freeland i know we can go back to the he or she who stabs the you know doesn't get to where the i get it but
Zain: but this
Zain: this is more than you're about to ask a question about it but i think this is not about that this is what i'm most interested in carter is that's not like christopher freeland didn't have a bunch of organizers mps others helping her out how does that only amount to to 11 000 votes like skip the eight percent i want to look at the raw numbers here how does that only amount to 11 000 votes and 11 in your in your own writing i
Carter: mean that was that was that
Carter: was just brutal um she just took the you know took an absolute shit kicking uh i think that martha hall finley did better i'm just taking taking a look right now um look
Carter: look
Carter: look at that my name mentioned in her wikipedia um who
Carter: who knew um it doesn't say how much she did yeah story time
Corey: yeah story time with stephen carter here yeah
Carter: yeah so steve story time with stephen carter but but but listen this
Carter: this is not a reflection on christopher freeland as a human being this is and i don't believe this is a reflection on christopher freeland the uh the judas who who sat and uh um uh you know took out Trudeau. I think this is a reflection on Mark Carney and Mark Carney alone. People
Carter: People were looking at the situation and they decided. I am quite certain that if you looked at Krista Freeland's voter ID numbers, they were 10 or 15 percent higher than
Carter: than the 11,000.
Zain: than the 11,000. Yeah.
Carter: Yeah. No, 10 or 15 percent higher in percentage. I would bet that they would be double, triple what what actually her voter ID. but i think that she did what we did like what i've done with different campaigns too which is get out the winner's vote because
Carter: because the the bottom line is the winner has been determined by something bigger than you and that would be my word to christia freeland if i if she was listening today if she wanted to host the podcast i'd say you know christia this is uh this isn't about you this was about mark and this was mark's election sometimes you don't win uh because you can't win
Zain: Yeah. Nicely said, Carter. But Corey, 11,000 votes across the entire country of Canada.
Zain: Yeah, I think that there
Corey: there
Corey: there were signs, right? If you looked at, it looks like fundraising was perhaps the most predictive sign in this particular leadership contest. And, you know, Mark Carney beat her 10 to 1 in fundraising, and then he beat her 10 to 1 in votes. And we'll probably need to keep closer eyes on fundraising numbers going forward when we get these midterm numbers, because they probably actually tell us more about the state of the race than perhaps we like to pretend sometimes, right? Right. And, and yes, you can play with it, but you can't change the macro story there. 11,000 votes is rough, but
Zain: fundraising
Corey: there is a phenomenon when you
Corey: are, let's call it 30%. When you're below 30% support, you might as well be at zero because you, you are acutely aware you're in the minority. Like you can talk to your friends and you'll realize, oh, they have a different opinion than me. And in a political party, which is a bit cult-like to begin with, I'm just saying political parties in general, not just the liberals.
Carter: I'm just saying political
Corey: That's a pretty big pressure. That's a pressure to say, well, I mean, if eight out of 10 of my friends are voting for Mark Carney, I
Corey: I can't even convince myself that I'm the majority with other people who are just silent. It's clear everyone's voting for Mark Carney. And the bottom can really fall out of a campaign like that. Because then people want to get on the winning team. They start saying, well, I don't want, if he's going to win anyways, I don't want him to have a number that in any way jeopardizes that leadership or make it it looked weak. These are thoughts that normal voters are increasingly having, but partisan voters and political parties are definitely having. They're not just thinking, what's the result I want? They're saying, if the result is what the result is, what's the best result for the party?
Carter: This is one of the things that I try and set up in a campaign. And that is, can we look like the winner?
Carter: Because if you look like you're going to be the winner, you're going to get a disproportionate number of votes because people like to vote for the winner. Low information, lowly engaged voters will use, oh, I think that person's signs are the best. I think that they had the most signs out. I think that they're going to be the winner, so I will vote for them.
Corey: Because
SPEAKER_01: Because if
Corey: if
SPEAKER_01: if
Zain: Yeah.
Zain: I
Zain: hate to predict future, but this is why I'm going to start with you, Carter. Does this dampen Gould or Freeland's future within the Liberal Party, a showing this rough?
Carter: No, I don't think so. I think they're both going to wind up with very interesting cabinet positions. You think so? I think they're both. Oh, yeah. Oh,
Zain: so? I think they're both.
Carter: yeah. Corey,
Zain: Corey, do you believe that? That both of them are going to get cabinet positions? And the broader question, do you think this poor result for them impacts their future within the Liberal Party or maybe even politics? Are they done? Yeah,
Corey: I think Freeland will probably be offered a cabinet position because it would be bad form not to offer her a cabinet position.
Corey: I think she's done. Like, there's not like she doesn't get to win next time. Like it's if this is as high as it gets for her, she can be a cabinet minister. That's fine. Gold is probably done herself some favors by being in the race. But let's be clear.
Corey: She pretty dramatically outperformed the buzz or underperformed the buzz. Underperformed the buzz. I was absolutely – Deeply underperformed the buzz. There was sort of an Ottawa bubble that was really quite taken with her. And, you know, it was never my cup of tea. It felt like she was the continuity candidate. It felt like she had all of the liberal branding of Trudeau. She also felt like the candidate after
Zain: Underperformed the buzz. I was absolutely –
Zain: also felt like the candidate after the Liberal Party fails and rebuilds sort of candidate. She really sounded like that. Yeah. Well,
Corey: Yeah. Well, definitely. And certainly maybe that would have been fine if the Liberals had no hope. But a funny thing happened on the way to the forum. The liberals found hope and they started thinking maybe they can win this next election. And so, you know, she really underperformed there too.
Corey: Certainly, I would say a week ago, there were a lot of liberals kicking themselves and saying, fuck,
Corey: why didn't I enter the race? Even if I didn't win, I could have increased my profile.
Corey: I don't think those same liberals are feeling the same way today. I think they're saying, ah, that didn't really work out for her. Like Frank Bayless almost got more points than her. So, you know, I just don't think that this is the view of it is the same today. I don't think she damaged herself, but I no longer think she helped herself. I think there's a certain criticism and a jaundiced eye that now looks at that campaign. I'm
Zain: there's a certain
Zain: I'm kind of with Corey on this one, Carter. What do you think of Gould and her political future?
Carter: Like she gets a great cabinet position. She gets a great opportunity.
Zain: She
Carter: What do you mean now? I
Zain: I mean, I said, I said, no, you said that before, but you don't think, do you feel like this has been a neutral exercise for her? Or do you think she fundamentally... And
Carter: she fundamentally... And a better—I think that a name that I didn't recognize is now a name that I recognize. And
Carter: And I think that that's good for her.
Zain: Despite getting 3%. Yeah.
Carter: Yeah, 3%.
Zain: 3%.
Carter: mean, she got half of what Martha Hall Finley got.
Corey: Zane
Zain: Zane
Corey: Zane for leader could have— Yeah,
Carter: Yeah, less
Zain: Yeah, less
Corey: less
Zain: less than a third
Corey: less than a third
Corey: third of what Joyce Murray got.
Carter: Yeah. Yeah. Joyce Murray, I've forgotten about. Zane for leader could have gotten 0.1%.
Corey: Joyce
Zain: Joyce Murray, I've forgotten about. Zane for leader could have gotten 0.1%. Isn't
Carter: .1%. Isn't that interesting? Could
Zain: Could we have gotten 11,000 votes for Zane for leader? And not just to be clear, not for me, but just Zane for leader. Yeah.
Carter: Yeah. Oh, no, Zane for leader, yeah. Yeah, for a
Zain: for a leader,
Corey: a leader, for sure could have gotten 11,000 votes. There's no question in my mind. We definitely could have mobilized. Okay,
Carter: leader,
Zain: mind. We definitely
Zain: Okay, that
Zain: that was the what.
Zain: Now what, Corey? When
Corey: When
Zain: should he call the
Corey: should he call the election?
Corey: Right away. What's right
Zain: right away? Let's get like specific about this. So we sit here on a Monday. What's a right away?
Corey: away? Let's get like
Corey: here on a Monday.
Corey: Well, there are a couple of variables that I'd let them play with, but I think within a week and a half. I think if by not this weekend, but next weekend, it's not clear buzz in Ottawa that an election call has either happened or is imminent, that would be a real mistake. You just keep the plates spinning. You keep moving. You do not allow the inevitable cycle of meet the leader. Oh, wait, do I actually like the leader to occur? You just keep moving. I also think it's consistent with Mark Carney saying we got to defend Canada because, well, I think the liberals have done a good job of moving things along and not allowing any time for, you
Corey: you know, doldrums would have been fatal for that. We talked about this in advance, but doldrums would have been fatal for the liberal campaign because Poliev could have pointed to them and said, geez, it would have been great if we had a fucking government, if we had a legislature, if we had the ability to pass laws. None of that happened because everything moved so quickly.
Zain: but doldrums
Corey: You want to maintain that sense of urgency and speed because at the end of the day, it
Corey: it
Corey: it is still actually an enormous problem that Justin Trudeau left us in this position. We still do not have permanent leadership right now dealing with Donald Trump at a very dangerous time for our nation. And we don't want people to have time to remember that. We can't fuck about. And so it's time for Mark Carney just to, if he's got enough moves to propel for one week of media cycle, go for it. Whatever, man. I'm not necessarily convinced that I would appoint a cabinet. Sounds like he's going to. I'm not necessarily convinced that I would go through the steps of appointing the Jean Chareys of the world. Bet you we're going to talk about that in a bit. Yeah,
Zain: in a bit. Yeah, yeah.
Corey: But if he wants to do that, I guess he's leader. I guess he gets to do that. But get to an election and get to it quick. Can
Zain: Can I pick up on one thing before I ask you, Carter, when he should go?
Zain: Corey, does he not have to appoint
Zain: a cabinet?
Zain: No,
Corey: No, absolutely
Zain: absolutely
Zain: absolutely
Corey: absolutely not. Well,
Zain: Well,
Carter: Well, he could keep the existing cabinet. Yeah,
Corey: Yeah, I mean, from a technical point of view, absolutely not. From
Corey: a politics point of view, you could make a case to me that you should. But the problem he has is he's inevitably going to have to make it out of pieces of the existing cabinet. And what
Zain: And
Corey: what does that look like? Somebody's in, somebody's out. Somebody's in, Pierre Polyev hits you with them. Somebody's out, hurt feelings, and it disrupts morale, although with your commanding victory, probably not the hugest problem you have. I just will be frank. I'm not sure cabinet members get you enough to make it worth your while unless you're willing to go really crazy and go outside of the existing MPs. But that presents challenges as well.
Carter: Because
Corey: Because you'll have trouble vetting them in time. You don't know if they're good political operators. And if they're not good political operators, they're not a benefit. A week after they've been appointed, they become a liability.
Carter: I heard a rumor, Zane. Yeah.
Carter: Corey Hogan's going to be appointed to cabinet and has to run in Calgary Confederation. Oh,
Corey: Oh, that's exciting.
Corey: Heard it on a podcast, did you? I
Carter: it on a podcast,
Carter: I heard that on a podcast. Okay.
Corey: Okay.
Carter: That's
Corey: That's
Corey: That's
Zain: That's good.
Carter: Yeah. I'm thinking it's going to be big. But the thing is, he's
Zain: he's going to be- Do any of us get ambassadorships? Do you think that's possible?
Carter: he's going to be- Do any
Carter: Oh, yeah. You're going to get one. You
Zain: You think so?
Carter: Oh, yeah.
Zain: Where?
Corey: Where? Not a good place. No, a bad place. A bad place. Yeah, a real bad place. Iceland.
Carter: Not a good place.
Carter: A bad place. Yeah,
Carter: Iceland. Is Iceland a bad place? Actually, Iceland feels okay.
Corey: Is Iceland a bad place? Actually, Iceland feels okay. Sulfur. Yeah. It's a problem, you know? It's
Carter: okay. He's been stuffed up for four years.
Zain: When should he call
Zain: an election, Carter?
Carter: I think he has to. Here's my timeline. He has to call the election before the House prorogation ends. So that, to me, is the deadline.
Zain: deadline. March 24th or 23rd.
Zain: Yeah.
Carter: Yeah. I think he can't go back into Parliament and the House of Commons. I think that that would be very,
Zain: Yeah.
Zain: Yeah. I think
Carter: very tricky to get to that stage. So sometime in the next two weeks, I guess, because what's today? The 10th? Yeah.
Corey: Yeah. Can I tell you why he can't go back, in my opinion? Maybe this is an expansion of Carter's thoughts. Maybe it gets to the same place in a different way. Because Jagmeet's ready to make
Zain: thoughts. Maybe it gets to the same
Zain: Jagmeet's ready to make a deal. As long as there's support for workers, Jagmeet Singh is willing to probably give you until October if you need. Who? Who? The guy you need, apparently, or needed. No longer need.
Corey: support for workers,
Carter: Don't remember that name. 12%, he can go fuck himself. The
Corey: Don't
Corey: Don't remember that name. 12%, he can
Corey: problem you have is that point of urgency I've been talking about. You can't run a campaign that's like, I'm here, I'm going to defend the country. It's different times. It's crazy times. And then go into the House of Commons to only do a throne speech and then either go across and it looks cynical if you do it yourself. And it looks like you're inept if you're brought down by the government or sorry, by the opposition, after reasonably thinking that you could hold the parliament for a couple more months, right? Right. So like, like, what's the upside there? You either look like calculating and cynical, which cuts against your authentic brand that you're trying to build. I'm not a politician. I'm not the slick guy like Pierre Polyev. Or you look like you can't get a deal done with fucking Parliament. And you're thinking, go ask Canadians to let you get a deal done with Donald Trump. Like that doesn't make sense to me. So just don't don't waste your time.
Corey: Carter, let's
Zain: let's start putting the pieces together for what the election strategy should be in your mind. And I want you to build with Corey here. You can start with anything you want related to geography, brand, message, also the added sort of element of how much should Mark Carney be doing the job of prime minister while he campaigns versus running to be prime minister. And I look at the Ford playbook of what he did in Ontario, which go down to Washington, do the job, I'm premier, like I got to do the gig. And then, you know, spend four or five days is doing that um yeah how much and i'm just giving you options to consider and comment on but carter give me your sense of what the campaign strategy here in broadstoke should look like and i'm gonna ask cory to refute and then and then potentially build running
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Carter: Well, I think that there's no really big secrets here. Atlantic Canada is jumping out into a significant lead. So you're going to go there one time. I don't think you're going to go to the United States. I don't think you're, if you're going to go anywhere, I'd say go to Europe. And I wouldn't go to Europe during the election campaign. I'd go to, I'd go to Europe next week. That would be my play. The rest of the time I would be in Quebec and, and
Carter: and
Carter: Ontario.
Carter: Yeah. And then in the lower mainland of British Columbia. And on my way to the lower mainland in British Columbia, Maybe I'd land one time in Edmonton and one time in Calgary, maybe one time in Regina, one time in Saskatoon.
Corey: Well, I'm really going to need him to show up that one time in Calgary.
Carter: I'm really
Carter: Yeah. Well, for you, no, I think you've got it. I
Corey: I
Carter: I think as the cabinet
Carter: cabinet minister for energy, you're
Carter: you're probably going to do just fine. Makes perfect sense.
Corey: Makes
Corey: Makes perfect sense.
Corey: Yeah,
Carter: Yeah,
Corey: absolutely.
Carter: absolutely.
Carter: absolutely. I mean, this
Corey: I mean,
Carter: isn't a bad idea. And I'm thinking I'm going to just, you guys talk for a second. I'm going to make a call. Okay.
Zain: Okay.
Carter: Probably.
Zain: Probably.
Carter: Probably.
Zain: it's probably it's not that all that connected we know that cory right you've seen this on we've seen this on previous calls probably called the george hall of all people and i got a mute it's like george do you have mark cartney's number do you have mark's number i feel like yeah i feel like you could give it to me now uh he's
Corey: you've seen this on we've seen
Corey: this on
SPEAKER_00: cartney's
Corey: cartney's
SPEAKER_01: cartney's number
Corey: number do
SPEAKER_01: do
Corey: he's actually he's actually taking your call yeah he's actually on a phone right now so this is oh he was actually at the end of the episode oh
Zain: oh he was actually at the end
Zain: oh my god what hey listen cory um start answering this for me
Corey: this
Zain: your take on what you've heard the campaign strategy you've heard a lot of things from carter he does not need to hear what you've said uh he rarely does anyways uh
Zain: uh
Zain: uh that's true what is the campaign strategy for you in your mind well
SPEAKER_01: that's true what
Corey: um i i think that the contrast you're setting up is between polished and not uh credentialed and not yep and you're saying i'm a serious person for serious times and so your actions need to follow accordingly right you can't look overly political you have to make sure that you You are leaning into your wonkish nature. And frankly, you don't have enough time to become good at politics. And one of the things we didn't talk about was the quality of Mark Carney's speech. Yes, I won't forget that at
Zain: Yes, I won't forget that at the end. But yes, jump
Corey: jump into it. I thought the content was fine. I thought the delivery was not fine. I thought it actually showed a certain lacking of political communication skills. And I don't mean it's boring. I mean the ability to convey information. So we should hop back to that. I'll say this. You don't have time to get good at that. So you're going to have to turn that vice into a virtue. you you're gonna have to say yeah i'm not a polished politician i am a i am a public servant i care deeply for this country and i am putting all of my efforts into this i'm deeply connected i have the skill set that's required at this moment and yeah it's not creating three-word slogans sorry not sorry about that like that has to be your plan and i am one of these people who believes once you've figured out that brand all questions are answered by brand all your actions are dictated by brand and that means you don't do the throne speech bullshit that carter and i have already discounted it means you don't go around with the glib sayings you've just got to comport yourself accordingly and and that's what he's got to do and and there is really if we're talking about election call in the next week two weeks here we are only talking about seven weeks until this is all done and there's a whole new late
Zain: jump into it. I
Zain: late april early may yeah
Corey: late april early may yeah
Corey: there's a whole new parliament so so you don't need to go for long but you need to make sure that you're consistent in that time because the last thing i'll say on this point your
Corey: your brand is pretty durable if for four years you act one way your brand is in a lot of jeopardy if people have known you for 30 seconds and you start acting in a different way so he has he has less margin for error than a politician that we've known for a long time by
Carter: by
Carter: the way it's
Carter: happening oh
Corey: oh okay
Zain: okay fantastic
Corey: fantastic
Zain: fantastic it's
Zain: it's a very sharp phone call it seemed
Carter: seemed like an incoming call but you know i'm not gonna question it it's
Zain: you know i'm not gonna question it it's good
Carter: it's good it was it was an outgoing call and uh it looks really good for cory okay
Zain: okay
Corey: okay how
Zain: how did you mention the not zane i noticed one thing the iceland thing that i wanted yeah
Corey: not
Corey: noticed
Carter: noticed
Corey: noticed one
Carter: one thing
Carter: i did spend i did spend a little bit of time talking about you zane yeah uh it didn't go well for you did
Zain: yeah uh
Carter: did he
Zain: he acknowledge
Carter: acknowledge
Zain: acknowledge that
Carter: that he knows me uh
Carter: not
Carter: really it was more along the lines of i know him i
Zain: i know him and that's all that matters carter let me let me tell you something let me tell you something i've
Carter: know him and
Zain: i've got two actually questions about strategy here you guys have given me your roadmaps and cory a bit on messaging carter a bit on where and what you do um
Zain: um let's
Zain: start with this one is
Zain: doug ford a friend oh
Carter: yeah tamar
Zain: tamar carney
Carter: tamar carney
Carter: carney
Zain: carney in
Carter: in this election absolutely
Corey: absolutely
Zain: absolutely
Corey: absolutely
Zain: absolutely
Corey: absolutely
Zain: absolutely big time talk to me why carter you go first and then and then cory number
Carter: one the history of uh the liberals and the conservatives splitting the government in ontario uh this is a real historical trend where um if
Carter: you have a liberal government in in ontario you have a conservative majority of MPs in going to the House of Commons for Monterio. So I suspect this is going to mean that there's going to be a very good number of seats for the Liberals. Plus, Doug Ford has turned into Captain Canada. You
Carter: You know, and Corey's recommendation that, you know, he get appointed to something to manage, you know, negotiations on behalf of the government. I mean, I think it's going a step too far, but I don't think it's going too far. I think Mark Carney was on the phone to Doug Ford probably within 24 hours, within the 24 hours since the election victory.
Corey: In fact, we know they've talked. And Doug Ford has said things like, sounds like we're on the same page on this one here, right? And you know what he's doing there? He's providing some of his shine, because Canadians really like what Doug Ford's done. Pauling tells us that. On to Mark Carney. Exactly. And yes, the people who have that kind of power to give have that kind of power to take. And you should be a little bit cautious about what Doug Ford might do. And it's pretty easy for him in a campaign to say, oh, geez, at the end of the day, I'm a conservative. And of course, I'm going to vote for Pierre Polyev. Shucks, I like Mark, but I'm obviously not going to vote for him. I don't see him eye to eye with him on all these business things or whatever the fuck he wants to say, right? Right. But if you tailor your relationship, knowing that that is probably the most likely outcome in week five of the election, he can't hurt you that much. You give him a job or you maybe you don't formally give him a job. You say, Doug and I don't see eye to eye on everything. Our politics are very different, but we both love Canada. Right. And so you've put it in a little bit of a box. You've put your blessing of him in a box. You've put his ability to hurt you in a box. And his ability to help you right now far exceeds his ability to hurt you. And
Corey: I don't see any reason to believe that he is going to step away from that Captain Canada role. So as long as he's saying nice things about the country and working with you, you're in great shape.
Zain: Corey, I'll start with you on this. How do you keep the Team Canada slash tariff slash Donald Trump singular threat ballot box question alive over the course of an entire bit period? Or do you? you? Or do you allow it to go to things like housing and cost of living and other things before you take it back? How do you, if you're Carney here,
Zain: ensure that it's about the thing that is giving you the viability to begin with?
Corey: Well, you have a couple of set pieces, right? You know, April 2nd will be a big date for tariffs. You can look at the calendar and find other flashpoints. You can build other flashpoints, frankly. I don't mean like get another opportunity for us to get tariffs, but you can look at things that are happening in the United States and and lever onto them you can also um take a lot of at-bats and see if you can get something really interesting like i've been thinking for a while is there anything that would be better for mark carney and the liberals than if they could get through friendly media or people asking in the right format of donald trump if they could get donald trump to make the statement canada is broken how
Corey: how much would that help the liberals because i think like all the help right if If somebody just said to him, Mr. President, the conservative candidate says Canada is broken in the Canadian election. Do you agree Canada is broken? And you go, oh, yes, I absolutely believe Canada is broken, right? And, you know, then you have a video that you run in the closeout week of the campaign, Canada is broken, Canada is broken, Pierre Poliev, Donald Trump. I
Carter: I mean, it writes itself. Did you do Jimmy Stewart both times you did impressions?
Corey: mean, it writes itself. Did you do
Carter: no
Corey: my my jimmy stewart sounds uh i'm
Corey: afraid to do it now yeah
Carter: yeah i can't do accents there's a really good reason why i can't uh zane would be the geneva convention i would not be offended go
Corey: uh zane
Corey: be the
Zain: the geneva
Corey: geneva
Zain: geneva convention i would not be offended go ahead nope
Zain: not
Zain: once again not offended on behalf of all the people go
Zain: go ahead no
Carter: no the scots will be angry oh
Zain: oh because i
Carter: because i did a scottish accent one time wound up seriously in the wrong continent carter
Zain: how does he keep the ballot box we're gonna have to hear that how does he do it no zane zane
Corey: we're
Carter: we're gonna have to hear
Corey: hear that how
Corey: zane yeah We're going to have to hear that accent. No, but sorry,
Zain: accent.
Carter: accent. No, but sorry,
Zain: sorry, in that
Corey: that accent. Sorry,
Zain: that
Carter: that accent.
Zain: accent. Sorry, I'm getting there.
Carter: No, I'm not doing it.
Carter: I sucked at accents.
Corey: sucked
Carter: Here's the thing.
Carter: It's going to be a ballot box question about the United States, but it's going to be how do you translate that United States ballot box question to everyday Canadians? How do you make sure that it applies to everyday Canadians? So, yes, we're going to be talking about the tariffs. Now we're going to be talking about cost of living. Because the cost of living with the tariffs is going to be a significant issue.
Carter: We're going to talk about housing prices. We're going to talk about housing starts because now we've got to change
Carter: the way that we look at building these houses. We've got to change the way that we're looking at constructing everything in our country. So all of a sudden, everything is going to be put into your primary slogan. And your primary slogan is, I'm better than that guy. I'm better than Trump. I can take Trump on, but now you're going to bring it into everything else. And I'm doing a really poor job of explaining it. But when I was doing Alison Redford's campaign, we were, you know, everything was able to be put into the frame of mother of a young daughter, daughter of aging parents.
Carter: Mark
Carter: Carney needs to be able to put things into the frame of I can take care of you better against Donald Trump.
Corey: Corey,
SPEAKER_00: Corey,
Corey: Corey,
Zain: can
Zain: we talk about Pierre Polyev? So this is our weekly visitation of have they found their lane yet? They still have a scattershot carbon tax carny lane, which is about him talking about the shadow carbon tax and being just like Trudeau. They've got the fact that he's sneaky, which seems to be an underlying element around how he's sneakily going to bring the carbon tax. They've got that he's weak because he's going to sell out Canada like he did Brookfield and their headquarters to New York rather than keeping it in the United States. And, of course, now Pierre Polyev is saying not necessarily in ad format yet that he's got major conflicts of interest, that he's profited off of American companies rather than keeping his money in Canada, et cetera. So
Zain: I don't know if I'm being charitable with the descriptions because I'm trying to be as literal with the descriptions. But have the conservatives found their attack line yet? Do you feel like they're there finally for them? And we're seeing a lot of ads because they're trying to get money out the door before everyone is equalized in terms of their spending power when the writ happens in a matter of days. But where are the conservatives at, at least on the paid media side that you've seen with some of the messages that they're trying?
Corey: when the writ happens
SPEAKER_01: happens
Corey: happens
Corey: in a
Corey: You know, I've really been thinking a lot about this sneaky claim that the conservatives continue to try to lay at Mark Carney's feet. And some of its uses are absurd. The idea that it's sneaky that the liberals replaced their leader with Mark Carney. That's not sneaky. The whole country wanted him to resign. He resigned. They got a new leader. What the fuck is supposed to happen besides that? But they are so fixated on sneaky and they're trying to shoehorn sneaky in so much. I think it's partially because there's that clip
Zain: partially because there's that clip that like his face looks like. I don't think that's why. Yeah,
Corey: Yeah, you don't think so? I don't.
Zain: don't.
Corey: I'm curious. No, I think, yeah, well, look, they all, Stephen Carter just described a message frame and trying to fit everything into a frame. Yes. You build those for your opponent, too, and they clearly think they have something, maybe not with the word sneaky, but the sentiment behind it. And you have to know they focus group this. You have to know that they went in there and they put a couple of material in front of people and they put a couple of arguments in front of people and said, how does this make you feel? And if I had to guess, if I had to guess what is driving the Conservatives' obsession with sneaky, which to me feels like an attack that's not quite found itself yet, I think that they've probably put a couple of comments in front of people like, did you know Mark Carney hasn't fully disclosed X? He hasn't disclosed where all of his sources of money are. What do you think of that? Oh, that makes me feel not good as a Canadian. Here's a clip of him answering a question about that at his campaign launch. Now, that was not a great clip for him, in my opinion. And he got a little bit defensive in ways I don't think he needed to do. And I think it was the weakest moment of his launch. It wasn't even that weak of a moment, but it was clearly the weakest moment of his launch. Similarly, what do you think about the fact that Mark Carney chaired a company that moved a headquarters out of Canada into the United States? Oh, I don't like that very much. Well, let me show you a clip of him answering those questions. And you see him be a little bit defensive. I also think Mark Carney bled is an exaggeration. He had a paper cut for a couple of days on this particular issue, but it showed a certain weakness and an inability to answer a question or not show the best side of him, when I frankly think he could have answered that much more plainly and much quicker than he did. But the conservatives, lacking significant ammo in other ways, have found some things that people don't like, and they're saying, well, what's the combination? What ties this all together? And so they're trying right now to find a way that they can bundle this general feeling of like, don't
Corey: don't be so comfortable with this guy. He's not being entirely forthright with you.
Corey: They haven't found it. They haven't found it, but they think that there's something there. And I will be curious to see if they stick with what to me seems like a fundamentally not clicking message track, or if they keep fumbling around in this space until they find it. And
Corey: And if they find it, you know, the
Corey: game's different. But right now it just kind of feels clumsy. Connor,
Zain: Connor, where are they on their journey? You're a trained communications and political practitioner. From the products that you see them putting out on pain media, where do you think the conservatives are on their journey of finding something or finding a series of things that work as a line of attack on Mark Carney? They're
Carter: still throwing the shit against the wall and hoping something sticks. I don't I don't agree with Corey. I don't think that they've they've narrowed it down to one thing that's going to work. I think what they're doing is they're trying to take four or five, six different ideas, see which one works, see which one shows up in their focus groups next week, and then they'll start to hone in. And that's OK. That's OK to be throwing everything against the wall when you've got millions of dollars to spend every single week. So you may as well give it a try and then do a focus group set next week and see which which one actually starts to have resonance. Can I tell you? That's fine.
Corey: you?
Corey: fine. Can I tell you why I don't think, I mean, the only reason I don't agree with you on that is because they're so clearly trying to shoehorn things that are not sneaky into the sneaky frame. And I don't, you don't do that. If your message doesn't, you don't try to force other things. You could also look at it
Zain: other things. You could also look at it the same way with their, just like Justin, which they've ended up multiple ads on. Oh, like carbon tax carny, which they've ended multiple ads on. So, you know, it does seem like they're still in journey mode. Like they're just trying to figure out what is, is working for them. But the second part of this question, Corey, is any advice for the conservatives who have, to Carter's point, millions of dollars to spend and a limited time horizon to do so? What would you advise them to do? Is it doing what they're doing right now, which is throw things out in multiple tracks and then maybe, you know, as a writ approaches, maybe have a nugget of wisdom that you can go on? What would you advise them with the resources that they have that outstrip the other political parties? So,
Corey: carbon
Carter: carbon tax carny,
Corey: multiple
Carter: multiple
Corey: multiple
Carter: multiple
Corey: I mean, I would absolutely say They go out there and test, go out there and survey, go out there and run focus groups. They should be running them nightly. They should be running them in every region of the country. They can't bring this money into the campaign if they've exceeded the amount that you're allowed to spend in the campaign. So just go nuts. Try to make sure that when you hit the campaign, your ads in that more finite spending realm, they're all hitting. They're all cracking at 100. And I don't know. I mean, I don't know if they're doing that right now. Maybe this is what that looks like. Maybe we'll hear about it in books afterwards. It's like, yeah, we ran a million fucking things and we look like a disjointed mess. But behind the scenes, we were getting data. We were getting really important data that allowed us to run this motherfucking campaign that just put the boot to this guy's throat. Maybe that's what we'll see. But between them trying to shoehorn things into a frame and between them running ads that have everything, which makes it a little hard to disaggregate, I'm
Corey: I'm a little less convinced of that. it
Zain: it
Zain: carter any advice for the conservatives as they have these resources to spend over the next let's say week you
Carter: know it's a problem for me zane as you know i'm a winner and
Carter: and uh as
Carter: as a winner when i give advice people listen yeah i don't really want to be giving advice to uh pierre polly f listen test focus group spend your money go crazy um don't leave a nickel in the bank beyond on what you need to spend during the RIP period and learn as much as humanly possible.
Zain: Anything you'd advise to spend money on that isn't just paid ads?
Carter: Anything you'd
Carter: Strategist advertising. I mean, is that a paid ad or is it a sponsorship? Title sponsorship?
Zain: Title sponsorship? I think that we would take a Pierre
Carter: a
Carter: Pierre Polyev sponsorship. Depends
Zain: Pierre Polyev
Zain: Depends on the number.
Zain: I got a number in mind. Let's all say our number at the same time. So just to be clear, The terms are a one-week title
Carter: got a number in mind.
Corey: all say
Zain: title sponsor on behalf of Pierre Poliev and the Conservative Party of Canada on this program.
Corey: sponsor on behalf
Zain: Okay, ready? On the count of three, our number. One, two, three, $25,000. $10,000.
Carter: ,000. $10,000.
Zain: I was at $25,000, which means I have the highest—
Corey: highest— $10,000 is too low, actually. I wouldn't do it for $10,000. $25,000. No, that would be tough. I would do it for $25
Zain: highest— $10,000 is
Zain: $25
Carter: $25
Zain: $25,000. No, that would be tough.
Zain: $25
Corey: $25,000. I would do it for more. I
Carter: I would
Corey: would
Carter: would do
Corey: do it for— I would do
Carter: do it for— I would do it for $25,000 and
Carter: an airfare on Flair Airlines to and from Vancouver. Well,
Corey: Well, that is consistent with our other title sponsorship. yeah i'm upping it to 250 000 okay
Carter: yeah i'm upping
Corey: okay yeah that's okay i
Corey: i could work with that okay
Corey: okay good carter could you work with that
Zain: no uh
Zain: uh if they are interested uh and they are listening at the 59 minute mark info at the cra is politically motivated.com we won't filter your message out like the other guy that we filtered can i
Carter: can i just say that for listeners we have in fact faced this problem in the past and
Carter: and and zane is the one yeah it did not resolve itself are you are
Zain: and zane is the one yeah it did not resolve itself are you are you surprised Are you surprised that I'm the one that said no? Yeah. No, it's good. Well, it wasn't the conservatives, but yeah. I'm
Carter: Are you surprised that
Carter: no? Yeah. No, it's good. Well, it wasn't the conservatives, but yeah.
Carter: I'm glad I don't have that money in my pocket. Are
Zain: Are you? Yeah, so am I. You're welcome.
Zain: You're absolutely welcome.
Zain: Let's move it on to our under and our lightning round. Stephen Carter, we do this for you and your bedtime. Are we going to see any new, new, net new cabinet ministers in the Carney cabinet? So these are people that have never been in cabinet over the course of the liberal lifetime of the last 10 years. Are we going to see any of those names in the Carney cabinet?
Carter: Yes, we're going to see Corey Hogan from Calgary and Calgary Confederation. Man, Corey,
Corey: Corey, are we going to see any new names? You're going to see new names. You're going to see new names. Because otherwise, what's the point? Like, you don't want to look like you are the exact same team. You were writing Pierre Polyev's ad for him if you do. Corey,
Carter: to see any new names? You're
Zain: Corey, on a scale of one to 10, how did the liberals do pulling off this leadership race in your mind? One being, of course, the lowest, 10 being the highest.
Corey: I'm going to give it a nine. I mean, you got to give a little bit of space for improvement. But I really, I got to tell you, if you had told, if you had said to me in January, it would go this smoothly, I would have said that's, that's pretty wishful. Like, things always go wrong in leadership contests. And frankly, nothing fucking went wrong. I know that there's like an article today saying, why didn't these people vote, but I already talked about it. But like the open contest that the liberals do, really low entry, like it's very frictionless at the front end. And then the friction is introduced when you vote and people drop off. It was 43% in 2013 when the Alberta Liberal Party did one in 2011. I think it was 32% who voted. That's the nature of contests like this, that the media doesn't understand that is not the liberals fault. That's the system that they had going in. They didn't pick that system. them and man i gotta tell you like they set what i thought was too high of a price point they got five fucking candidates for it they set a timeline that seemed really ambitious maybe
Corey: you know like it went just totally fine they had a online voting method they brought in canada post i know that there were challenges with it but those challenges disappear pretty quickly and they did it like they They landed the plane and they did it with all of the passengers still alive. That is no small feat. And the Liberal Party board and the Liberal Party office should be very proud of what they accomplished because I've run leadership campaigns from the party side. That was impressive, really impressive work by the Liberals.
Zain: Carter, Corey's giving it a nine. What are you giving it?
Carter: I'm giving it a B plus, Zane.
Carter: I think that the problem was that the Canada Post verification was just too onerous. But other than that, I thought it was a very good, very good leadership.
Zain: Carter, let's end here. One note.
Zain: No, that's not what I'm calling Mark Carney's speech. I'm telling you, give him one Stephen Carter strategist note. It could be anything about the content. It could be about the substance. It could be about how he said it, what he said, how long he said it. What is the top note you would want to give to Mark Carney after hearing his victory speech at the Liberal Leadership Race? Smile
Carter: you,
Corey: you, give
Carter: in every event the way you smile at your daughter.
Zain: Corey, what's the one note?
Corey: Corey, what's
Carter: what's
Corey: what's
Corey: Don't
Zain: Don't try.
Corey: You don't have time to get better.
Zain: Corey, do you want to actually give one? Well, that
Carter: that is the note that he's also given to Zane. That is my one note. It worked out perfectly. Listen,
Corey: is
Zain: is the note that
Corey: that
Corey: That is my one note. It worked out perfectly.
Corey: Listen, let me expand on it. But you know this. We all work together at Hill & Knowlton. We used to do training for people, you know, corporate clients, media training. They get so much fucking worse when you try to make them better until they get better. He does not have time to go through the journey of getting worse. That's a really good piece of advice. He should ignore every note that his team gives him for the next seven weeks. You don't have time to strip someone down to the stands and then build them again. That's what you're saying. That's exactly what I'm saying.
Zain: worse. That's a really good piece of advice. He
Zain: stands and
Zain: Jean Trey. Make it a virtue. I'm just going to throw his name out. Any comments?
Zain: Well, we don't
Corey: don't
Zain: don't even
Corey: even know what he's being potentially offered. So just
Corey: just to see your
Zain: to see your world.
Carter: your world. He
Carter: was offered Calgary Confederation. That's what I heard, too. That's
Corey: That's
Zain: That's what I heard, too. That's what I heard.
Zain: We're
Zain: We're going to leave it there. That's a wrap. That's episode 1850 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Velgey. With me, as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. And thank you for that very nice cameo, Justin Trudeau. We shall see you next time.
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