Zain: This is a strategist episode 1848. F. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Carter, what does the F stand for?
Zain: Ah, fucked.
Zain: Fucked,
Corey: Fucked, indeed. Didn't take much time on that, though.
Zain: much time on that, though.
Zain: Yeah, fucked. It actually took more time than it needed to, Carter. Yeah. You were just one and a half beats and we needed the half beat there. That should have been 10% of your time. Oh,
Corey: Yeah, fucked. It actually took
Carter: took
Corey: took
Carter: 10% of your time. Oh, sorry. Sorry. Are you just going around all
Zain: Are you just going around all day saying fucked? Because I know you are, Corey.
Carter: All day. yeah
Corey: yeah i am yeah my socials kind of relay that point pretty strongly i think right now yeah
Zain: where can i need to put myself on
Corey: can i need to put myself on a bit of a time you know what hey we've never talked about this
Corey: coryhogan.ca i
Zain: coryhogan
Corey: i got a sub stack now it's
Corey: got four articles i got a whole article four articles i started it in november so my my you know my articles per month are not great yet
Carter: a whole article
Zain: yet over
Zain: over 1 000 subscribers that's not bad you
Corey: know what and that's only even paying four articles aren't aren't even paying you they're paying me an attention which is the only currency that matters in 2025 yeah
Zain: only even paying four articles
Carter: yeah oh
Zain: oh that's that's good that's a good answer
Carter: answer that's a good answer canadian dollar doesn't mean sweet anymore it's
Zain: that's a good answer canadian
Corey: canadian
Zain: canadian
Corey: anymore it's
Zain: it's
Carter: it's
Corey: it's a little problematic unfortunately yeah
Zain: yeah i do like that you're pumping the strategist podcast you are saying other place to find me includes the strategist this is an interesting cory hogan logo it's like a it's like a modern day checker cab
Corey: this is an interesting cory hogan
Zain: you
Corey: know i go with the classic zane i was you know what i picked a color i didn't want the color to be associated with a political party so i went with uh yellow i
Zain: thought yellow was good yeah
Corey: yeah
Zain: yeah
Zain: yeah
Corey: yeah
Zain: yeah one
Corey: one
Zain: one
Zain: of you have frequently asked questions on your sub stack and one of them is i do what is stephen carter like and the answer is nobody knows carter
Zain: would you like to interject no
Carter: i think that's exactly right yeah
Zain: think that's exactly right yeah
Carter: yeah none
Zain: none of us can really know steven no one
Carter: steven no one knows stephen carter yeah these
Zain: yeah these
Zain: are these are not bad these are not bad faqs including the fact that you humble brag your gmat score cory just
Zain: just get that inserted in there
Corey: there i'm so proud of you like you were the first person to notice that i created an about page and uh you realized it you
Zain: i'm so proud
Zain: realized it you
Corey: you not only is it you who realized it but you realized it on air and so i'm just really proud of you right now i'm proud of me right now too if i'm being honest well
Zain: i'm proud of me right now
Zain: well four articles thousand
Corey: articles thousand
Zain: thousand subscribers i mean that's not bad at all it's not that ratio i doubt any of these articles are good i'm sure three or four Four of them have not aged well.
Corey: that ratio i doubt any
Corey: four Four of
Zain: Oh, no, actually, I think I'm okay with all of them right now. Did you read them, Carter? Are they good? Yeah.
Carter: with all of them
Corey: them
Carter: Did you
Carter: No, I have no idea. I didn't remember. I don't remember. They didn't
Zain: didn't
Carter: didn't really land in your mind. I remember reading them, but none of the content stuck in my head.
Zain: really land in your mind. I remember reading them, but none
Carter: Speaking of remember, Carter, can we just,
Zain: Speaking of remember, Carter, can we just, let's just jump into our first segment. Our first segment, this means war. Stephen Carter, can you remember the last 24 hours? And where were you on Saturday night when Luka Doncic got traded?
Carter: Where was I? I was
Carter: was at home. I was at home. I saw
Zain: was at home.
Zain: I saw it happen. Do a TikTok for us, like a TikTok, like how it happened for you.
Carter: TikTok
Carter: Well, I was scrolling my blue sky, because I don't do the X very much anymore. I was scrolling my blue sky, and actually, I think that something came up about a Luca thing. And I immediately thought, well, I don't care about that. My name's not Luca. And I kept going.
Carter: And then I thought of the Suzanne Vega song, My Name is Luca.
Zain: And then I thought of the Suzanne
Corey: Suzanne Vega song,
Zain: song,
Corey: song,
Corey: And then you thought, oh, okay. That's the end of my thoughts. All right. That's pretty good, though. Okay.
Carter: okay. That's
Zain: That's the
Carter: the
Zain: though. Okay. So, Corey, we've learned from Carter that he only cares about things that mention his name. So probably minimal value in this tariff conversation we're about to have, as there is no direct tariff or retaliatory tariff against Stevens or Carter's. Stephen Miller was involved. Can you tell? Stephen
Corey: Stephen Miller was involved. Can you tell? Stephen
Zain: Miller was involved. For sure. It is domestic policy. seeing that guy. And I don't know, I'm not going to say it, because I just don't know the current status of our libel insurance. Corey, tell me, where were you when
Zain: Luka Doncic got traded to the Lakers?
Zain: You
Corey: You know, I think I was somewhere in the vicinity of watching the Trudeau talk about the tariff retaliation, I guess. And I thought, well, that's pretty good. I mean, at least it gives Donald Trump a fighting chance of not being, you know, the worst trade decision of the day. but it remains to be seen, right? Yeah. I think we can all agree, weird trade, right? Weird trade.
Carter: Yeah. I
Corey: Weird
Carter: Weird trade, Carter. Was it really, though? I mean, after the vice president of basketball operations removed the beer from his hand, wasn't that a clear signal that Luca wasn't going to be staying any longer? Why
Corey: Weird trade, Carter. Was it really, though? I
Corey: would that be a clear signal? That's a clear signal that he shouldn't have a beer.
Carter: a clear signal that he shouldn't have a beer. We can't respect you as a man. We can't respect you as a man. You can't be trusted to drink your own beer. it'd be like if if zane went to your house right now and removed that canned beverage from your from your from your cold dead hand yeah
Corey: man.
Corey: it'd be like if
Corey: yeah but he wouldn't because he respects me as a man he respects you as
Carter: he respects you as a man so the second i saw that i thought to myself there's why he got traded so
Corey: so zane how do you feel about that one boy
Zain: boy i have to say let me just just jump in here i i listen
Carter: boy i have to say let
Corey: let
Carter: let
Zain: um carter's had the better basketball take than you on this corey okay
Zain: carter with his minimal knowledge has nailed this once again yeah
Corey: nailed this
Zain: yeah
Corey: yeah
Zain: yeah
Corey: yeah
Zain: yeah yeah
Zain: yeah
Carter: yeah carter i'm hoping you get i'm hoping you can
Zain: i'm hoping you can bring that same energy to the fuckery that is now a trade war that begins on tuesday well in many ways it's already begun because you're gone yeah
Carter: you're gone yeah
Zain: carter give me your let's just start with thoughts and then we'll start with analysis and then we'll lead into strategy uh give me um non-directional or even if you'd like to make them directional thoughts on where your head's at, where we sit today, February 2nd, nearly 9 p.m. at night.
Carter: Well, that noted liberal rag, the Wall Street Journal, didn't it call this the most unnecessary trade war ever?
Carter: You know, that to me is kind of what strikes me is if we had a president that actually understood trade, trade. If we had a president that actually understood how trade deficits work and all of those types of things, I think he would be able to see that you get a value for that,
Zain: he would be
Carter: right? But instead, he's trapped
Carter: trapped in a world where he doesn't understand value. He doesn't understand getting something for paying something. Lord knows he never pays for anything. So this
Carter: is, and I think the Wall Street Journal nailed it, the most unnecessary trade war ever. And we're in the the middle of it
Zain: cory let's start with some thoughts from your end all
Corey: right wall street journal called it the dumbest trade war in history like they pulled no punches but i think that it's only the dumbest trade war in history if you assume it's about trade because it makes absolutely no sense right like this idea of a surplus that uh canada enjoys with the united states that's well worn you don't need to go to this podcast to understand that uh it's nonsense it's like saying that uh you know my grocery store has a surplus with me because i buy more groceries from it like it's not a subsidy it doesn't make any it doesn't track it seems unbelievable to me that donald trump at some point in the past i don't know his really ancient life hasn't been told hey man this is what tariffs actually are it's not the point he knows that he doesn't care this is not about trade this is not about equality of trade it's certainly not about fucking fentanyl which there's very little of going across the border and i would i would argue as a canadian probably more troubling things coming across the border from the united states in volume than than this uh than this path and um really it's about two things in my mind it's it's about money he wants to have an awful lot of money so that he can move out of having an income tax or at least as quote-unquote high of one it's not a very high income tax in the united states but still and it's about control it's about saying i'm gonna push my weight around maybe if i play my cards right i can get the 51st state i can get my face put on mount rushmore everything that he's done since he's been reelected has been crazy town. And this is just one in a long line of crazy town. It has nothing to do with trade. We have to stop treating him like he's a rational actor with legitimate concerns, using trade as a legitimate tool.
Zain: quote
Zain: Corey, where do you think our Canadian leaders are on that particular wavelength you've just mentioned in terms of accepting Trump's premise versus rejecting it? There's a spectrum of in terms of where our leaders are at, at least how we sense, but as a collective, where do you think And are we far enough down the track of rejecting his fentanyl border premise in some way? How do you think we're striking that, I shouldn't say balance because that's not the goal, but how do you think we're doing on this?
Corey: I mean, so this is old school diplomacy that the federal government has to do right now. And I'm saying this because I want to preface it with one thing, which is the federal government's under no obligation to say what they mean. They're under no obligation to say the same thing in public as they're saying to the United States privately. And
Corey: And
Zain: And so if
Corey: And so if you were going to judge things entirely by the actions of the Canadian government in public, you would have to say they're clearly not far enough along, right? Like they don't seem to realize this is not a trade war. They're using trade as a punitive response here, right? Right. But I just don't believe based on reporting around the edges, based on some of the word choices that they made and the subtext in it, some of the implied threats that are going on, that they don't understand what this is actually about. Now, the Canadian government sort of almost has an obligation of trying to look reasonable. It's funny. It sucks. It's annoying that we have to deal with Donald Trump where there's no such obligation. But when it comes to the Canadian government, on round one, at least, they kind of have to take Trump on his word and be like, well, it sounds like you've got a problem with this. Well, we'll try to reasonably do that. And it's not because the rest of the world expects it. It's not because Canadians want it. It's because the audience, if there is any audience that has a chance of reigning in Donald Trump, it's the Republicans, it's the Republican governors, it's the people around him. and Canada's trying to remove the grievances from the table so all that's left is nonsense. I mean, it's nonsense right now, but you know what I'm saying. And then hope that people will try to pull this thing back onto the rails.
Zain: Carter, how are we doing in terms of trying
Zain: to fully understand the scope of the threat and what it is trying to highlight in terms of the soft tissue in the Canadian sort of relationship with the U.S. that Trump's trying to exploit?
Carter: I think we're doing pretty well. Well, I think that Justin Trudeau understands, I think, Corey's point about that, you know, taking this in steps and understanding that our response is going to be kind of a tit for tat to begin with. But, you know, we'll ultimately shift as the knowledge becomes more, you know, more known to all Canadians. I'm anticipating lots of different shifts from various leaders. But I was really impressed to see David Eby's response in British Columbia and Doug Ford's response in Ontario. They both not only jumped on board with what Trudeau was doing, but they went further. You know, I loved seeing the American alcohol being pulled off of the shelves. That, to me, it's just one little thing. It's not going to change. Put to a warehouse to
Corey: not going to change. Put to a warehouse to be sold later. Yeah,
Carter: Yeah, it'll still be sold. But it's just one little thing that sets the tone, right? Canadian stores are starting to put up buy Canadian signs. We're going to see a lot of that, especially with the dollar plunging against the American dollar.
Corey: Yeah,
Corey: I mean, we're going to have
Corey: have all that alcohol back, aged one trade war, I'm sure. But I think that the fact is Canadians and most of the politicians that Canadians are represented by seem to realize that the national mood is one of frustration and borderline rage. Like you, of course, have seen all of the sporting events, the hockey games that have happened coast to coast, the Raptors game that happened earlier today. The American Anthem comes on, people are booing. They're booing in Calgary, they're booing in Vancouver, they're booing in Montreal, they're booing in Toronto. People aren't very happy right now. And that's being funneled by a lot of the leaders that are seeing this. They're saying, okay, well, there's a parade and I want to get in front of it. and um and so it's it's hard to say that the politicians are not well calibrated to that moment by and large i'm fucking sure we're gonna get to scott moe and daniel smith at some point but uh but when you look at canada en masse it seems okay like a huge part of me of course wanted to see justin trudeau go for the absolute jugular last night introduce a bunch of wild things but that's
Zain: but uh
Corey: fine for step two that's fine for step three step one of saying okay no we are are going to retaliate and here's our escalation makes sense you don't want to go all in before you've seen the flop well you certainly have to know that donald trump has said he's going to retaliate to your retaliation so you want to have some room to go from there so
Corey: so what they're doing is fine like it's not it's not like inspirational get me jumping on my couch and cheering it's fine it's the kind of thing you'd want a canadian leader to do and it's pretty well tuned yeah i can't complain too much carter
Zain: carter has treated how did he do last night both with the suite of of retaliatory measures, as well as how did he politically perform last night for your analysis?
Carter: I mean, I had a number of people say to me today that if Trudeau, if this Trudeau had shown up over
Carter: over the last couple of years, that maybe he would have survived. Of
Carter: Of course, everyone says
Zain: course, everyone says that. But
Carter: But I'll be honest, I watched it and I didn't think that at all. I thought this is the Trudeau that shows up. This is the over-release. You know, he brought Sirius Trudeau and Sirius Trudeau places his voice in a special part of his throat where he starts to talk and
Carter: make sure that everybody understands that it's very
Carter: very very
Carter: important
Carter: to canada and
Carter: i just fucking makes me insane because it's not real i i i used the exact same voice when i was doing you know monologues in my university drama classes which is why i no longer do monologues in university like they sucked they they were horrible um and and we no one should have been subjected to him uh but you know justin trudeau found a way found a way to bring his his uh his drama
Carter: to
Carter: to all of us and and i
Carter: i don't begrudge him what he's done i think that the way what he did was exactly right i have a couple of points number one talk
Carter: like a human being i mean you're on your way out now you may as well may as well give it a whirl just on your way out and uh dominic leblanc get your fucking hands out of of your pocket you look like you're touching something um
Carter: um it's it's not appropriate i
Corey: just don't know if that's on trudeau but uh i take that point the
Zain: the dom leblanc in the hands in the pocket yeah yeah
Corey: yeah i
Zain: i don't think i don't think that is on trudeau i think i'm gonna happily give him a pass on that cory where you at on trudeau last night um you you talked about you talked about the suite of measures i got your analysis there give me your analysis on trudeau and his political performance yeah
Corey: so a couple of things that i think are interesting one is that it started started talking to americans not canadians yes
Zain: yes but
Corey: but i think it was still talking to canadians like very meta but it's like canadians want to see you talking to americans so you got to talk to americans when you're talking to canadians right interesting i think that we can talk about that tactic a little bit here totally agree with steven that i mean this is the exact same fucking justin trudeau you always get and uh well i thought that his delivery was fine i thought he hit the moment pretty well by and large there i certainly didn't leave there saying man i wish this guy was still there in fact a couple of the questions when i was talking about hockey i think it was and he's like and you know how we canadians get about
Corey: hockey you know i'm just like fuck
Corey: off just fuck off like that trudeau i cannot stand and i we definitely didn't need him last night at that moment by
Corey: by and large it was good it was serious it was fine i don't understand why three people who did nothing were standing behind him it didn't show the solidarity oh you mean the human
Zain: oh you mean the human human wall the carter can explain oh i fucking hate the human wall well could you have supplied them with a couple of brown people for that you know what do you have any in reserve that might be available what you do is
Carter: wall
Carter: know what
Zain: you find your
Carter: you find your minorities yeah
Carter: yeah
Zain: yeah right
Carter: right because
Zain: i saw zero minorities i saw zero on stage there it
Carter: i saw zero on
Corey: on stage
Carter: stage there
Carter: there
Carter: it did seem to be more role-based but
Zain: it did seem to be more role-based but do
Corey: but
Carter: do you can i tell you as well please tell me for it
Corey: can i tell you as well please tell me for it this
Zain: it
Corey: this is getting into the weeds but on
Corey: this show i live in the the weeds right the four flags behind him hated it here's my thing carter i want your opinion on this two flags fine normal event a couple of flags eight flags that's a wall of flags that's fine too yeah four flags what the fuck is that there's a gap between each flag it's so clearly four flags then and it just bothered me and i it was like there was a flag per person who was there i didn't i didn't like it i got a confession to
Carter: i got a confession to make yeah
Zain: on
Carter: on
Carter: on the on the carney event i wanted four flags Fuck.
Carter: Fuck.
Zain: Fuck.
Carter: I was overruled and we went with the giant big flag. Oh,
Zain: flag. Oh,
Zain: Oh, well, that would have changed my analysis.
Carter: I'll tell you something. They were right in that decision.
Zain: You know? They
Carter: They
Zain: They
Carter: They made the right choice.
Zain: choice. You're a big man for being able to admit that. You could have had one flag
Carter: for being able to admit that. You could have had one flag
Zain: flag between each minority group that you brought up to stage. I didn't have that many
Carter: I didn't have that many flags.
Carter: That was a lot of flags. No, but if you
Zain: but if you did, you could have separated. No, that would have been great. You could have separated minority groups between flags. It would have been very nice. We were already having all kinds
Carter: could have separated. No, that would have been great. You could have separated
Carter: We were already having all kinds of issues with the minority groups. I don't want to get into that. No, don't say that.
Corey: that.
Carter: that.
Zain: No, do
Carter: do
Carter: do say that.
Zain: No, no,
Corey: no,
Carter: no,
Zain: no, I can't talk about it. This is
Corey: I can't
Carter: can't talk about it. This is
Corey: is
Carter: is a
Zain: a
Carter: a safe space. Go
Zain: Go ahead. No, it's not. It's not
Corey: No,
Corey: not
Carter: not
Zain: not
Carter: not a safe
Zain: not
Corey: not a safe space. It's not a safe space. It's not a safe space. Why are
Zain: safe space.
Carter: space.
Zain: It's not a safe space. It's not a safe space. Why are you – which – okay, don't tell me the issues. Tell me the groups.
Carter: Oh, yeah.
Carter: There was a lot of conflict. Don't
Zain: Don't
Carter: Don't tell me the issues. Just tell
Zain: Don't tell me the issues. Just
Zain: tell me the groups and I'll guess
Carter: guess
Zain: guess the issues.
Corey: guess
Carter: guess
Corey: guess
Carter: guess the issues.
Zain: Just go ahead. That's
Corey: Just
Carter: Just
Corey: Just go
Corey: That's amazing. Okay.
Zain: Okay. Why are you so uncomfortable? You're clenching up. It's just Carter and I just having a chat about our people. people well speaking of the weeds carter works in the northeast weeds you know he knows i know we know okay oh
Carter: oh i know it yeah yeah what
Zain: oh i know it yeah yeah what
Carter: what
Carter: what do you know it about who well
Carter: well i know you're not a real muslim i'll tell you that oh
Corey: oh
Carter: oh
Corey: oh my gosh okay
Corey: all right
Carter: right you're
Corey: not a very good run coming for me
Carter: very good run coming for me
Zain: so
Carter: so
Zain: so all right
Carter: right today is the
Corey: right today is the day i'd like to uh today is the day i apologize for the ismaili community to the smiley community no i meant zane himself just
Zain: the
Carter: the day i'd like to uh today is the day i apologize for
Carter: no i meant zane himself just zane oh
Corey: oh just yeah i wasn't
Carter: yeah i wasn't all right oh god
Corey: all right oh god yeah no he would never do that oh and the way i interpret that is that that actually makes me the yeah yeah you're the one
Carter: the way i interpret that
Zain: yeah
Carter: yeah yeah you're the one who you're the one who heard the racism okay
Zain: one who
Corey: who you're
Corey: you're
Zain: you're
Corey: you're
Zain: you're
Zain: okay yeah no that would going after the smiling community would be political suicide carter yeah
Carter: yeah i would never do i'd never do that that's
Zain: i would never do i'd
Zain: that's true yeah no no and never mentioned suicide with my people come on uh carter now listen um let
Zain: let me talk let me tell you something i
Zain: disagree
Zain: with with both of you a bit. I think Trudeau was clear on message. But I am curious about picking up on this aspect of, did he need to address Americans? And if so, and even if you disagree, did what he did in that moment punch through? And was that enough in terms of a tactic to reach the American audience? Because I will tell you, while we were having this
Zain: this wall-to-wall coverage on CBC and and having all of our networks go live to this, including CTV News Channel and CBC, and having us glued. CNN was running a Kobe Bryant documentary from the archives. MSNBC was not covering this wall-to-wall. Even this morning on the Sunday news programs, Christopher Freeland appeared on one of them, and tariffs was item number three or four behind the helicopter and FBI agents being smoked out by Trump. So this is, as an issue set, not necessarily necessarily registering with america and i'm adding that as a bit of context to go back to the question which is did trudeau start doing enough to start punching through on it cory i'm curious to hear your a does he need to reach americans and b what does he need to do and is this the start of what he needs to do to punch through well
Corey: you
Corey: know i think we have to be realistic as canadians about how much americans are going to care about this and the answer is not nearly as much as we care about it and there's a lot of crazy shit going on like yes it might It might have been the third or fourth story on a lot of newscasts. Let's set aside running a Kobe documentary. I can't explain that. That's weird. But when you're talking about running through the other shit that's going on in the United States, from Elon Musk taking over Treasury's payroll systems to, I mean, to the FBI looking like they're standing up against these mass fires. It might legitimately be only the fourth most important story to Americans right now in the United States. Yeah, because they keep
Carter: States. Yeah, because they keep losing planes. like there's just a ton
Corey: like there's
Corey: there's just a ton of stuff it's backdrop on everything but like but all to say it's never going to be that we're number one story in this particular matter like you remember the joke in the simpsons in like 1990 where elise is calling a line and uh she's listening to you know the cory hotline about because that's the name of because it's a great name for a great celebrity right cory and uh he's reading the newspaper and the joke is supposed to be how boring it is he's like oh canada stalls on trade pact like that's that's like the definition of a boring line that's a punch line and so canada and trade is never going to be that interesting to americans now if you're justin trudeau yeah you'd love to have the clips i'm sure at
Zain: ton
Carter: ton of stuff it's backdrop on
Zain: at the same time that this is not a canada story that he's trying to make it's not like whoa me it's like fuck you're fucked like that's the story he's trying to tell but
Corey: to tell but
Carter: but
Corey: is he trying to tell that story to americans or is he trying to tell it to us are you trying to tell it to us i think he's trying to tell the intended audience yeah
Carter: think he's trying to tell the intended audience yeah
Zain: yeah
Corey: yeah walk
Zain: yeah walk
Carter: walk
Zain: walk
Zain: walk me through this what do you think he was doing then last night well
Corey: walk me through this
Corey: well let me talk a bit like sure i'm sure the clips would be great i'm sure you'd be happy that there's clips and there's conversation about that in fact if you'd asked me this question right after his speech i'd be like yeah he's trying to get the americans to pay attention to it but you
Corey: you know on on a reflection i just don't think that's the case i think that especially when you consider the dynamic that's going on in this country right now with one premier for sure and probably one and a half if you count scott moe as half a person which nobody has ever done before no but uh you know they're saying yo you got to negotiate you got to talk to these people like there's there is i think a requirement with a large number of people not a majority not even like a strong minority but there is a requirement with a large number of people that you at least give it a shot like you talk to them like they're an ally you deliver the message as though you might be able able to convince them as though they're a rational actor and so that's what he did like he talked to america to show us he's talking to america but it was for us it wasn't for america and
Carter: no but uh
Corey: and i just to
Zain: and i just to be clear you think that he did that first part in order to justify the second part which is a retaliatory package no
Corey: i think he did the first part because that will be an expectation for some people gotcha but this is really about the retaliatory package he's trying to do two things right and it's it's actually a total shame he is because if this country was a little more tough And a little more united, he wouldn't have had to deal so much with the first one. But he's trying to keep Team Canada, you know, including the premiers, and all of the various people out there who have opinions and share them on one page. And he's trying to respond to the United States of America. And one of them is about building equity to allow him to do stronger things on number two.
Zain: first part
Zain: Carter, talk
Zain: talk to me about what Trudeau is trying to do. And does he need to reach Americans? And if so, how well is he doing? I
Carter: absolutely don't think he needs to reach Americans. I don't think Americans are going to hear anything until they feel something.
Carter: And the feeling something is going to happen very, very quickly. A 10% tariff on oil is going to be, there's going to be some immediate impacts on the market. And if we start seeing the auto manufacturers shutting down within a week, which is what they're projecting right now, that's going to have a cascade effect that we'll see tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of Americans losing their jobs. So I would say you
Carter: don't have to make a point. You don't have to make it to that end. end it's just um you know instead it's just you
Carter: you just all you need to do is make sure that your people know that
Carter: at some point the americans are going to know and that's what the i'm talking to america right now section was it was there don't worry they're gonna fuck they're gonna find out they fucked around and now they're gonna find out goy
Corey: goy what do you think i mean do you know many people who speak french when they're speaking to americans yeah
Carter: yeah
Zain: yeah
Carter: yeah
Corey: it's just like it's it was for And while there certainly is some value in U.S. markets of bringing those clips forward, it wasn't for them. It was for us. It was talking to Canadians and trying to set the right tone and the right resolve and to say, I've done the reasonable things and now we're going to have to stiffen things up. and in many ways we
Carter: it's
Corey: are the frogs in water right if the government needs to go very far if
Corey: the government needs to do the very difficult things it needs to show to canadians that it's taken the steps along the way that have excluded other options and this is one of them okay
Zain: okay let's let's talk about uh let's do this as a set and then you guys can split um these folks apart as you need to to talk about them smith mo poly f give
Zain: me your analysis on where they find themselves right now Now, are they conveniently on an island with each other, or is one of them or two of them more on a mainland with the rest of Team Canada? How do you kind of assess their positioning and current position, either how they're trying to position themselves or by result of where everyone else has gone, where they find themselves? So I'm going to kind of put them together. Maybe you want to tease them apart. Corey, can I start with you on this?
Zain: I mean, you can. I
Corey: I think they have to be teased apart. part i think pierre polyev is in a very different situation from uh from daniel smith scott moe is maybe a little bit in the middle but i'd put him more on smith island and i'd say polyev is on a jet ski going by it saying oh fuck i hope they don't see me i hope they don't wave me down because he's in a lot of trouble on this particular one he's in a box and um you're starting to see him realize that this is not going to be the carbon tax election that was on his wish board as a child yes
Carter: and i'd say
Zain: a child yes yes and canada first said that last week and i think it's extremely
Corey: first said that
Corey: extremely clear this week and extremely clear this yeah yeah yeah um but if he's moving towards more of a canada first i'm gonna fight for canada yeah i wouldn't mind talking a bit about that canada first because i actually think it's a bit of a clunker for a few reasons some obvious um well
Carter: yeah
Zain: yeah yeah
Zain: yeah um
Carter: yeah
Zain: yeah i wouldn't
Corey: that's really tough when you've got danielle smith and scott moe saying basically
Corey: now canada maybe right and And Danielle Smith almost said that exactly. She's like, I'm on Team Canada if Team Canada does what I want them to do. I'm not even really paraphrasing. And
Zain: And beginning certain statements with Donald Trump is right to mention X, Y, and Z and go after A, B, and C. And then to your point, add in that line of, and Canada could be right if we do A, B, and C, and X, Y, and Z. Yeah,
Corey: Yeah, well, and I don't want to throw like everything on the table here. But I'll just say, Danielle Smith, I think increasingly this position doesn't look wise. I think Lisa Young wrote a pretty good article about that today. And Daniel Smith wrote in the National Post today about how, oh, they're an ally. I'm going to talk to them like they're an ally. This was clearly written before yesterday, I'm assuming, or certainly before Donald Trump started tweeting in response this morning about how really this is all a pretext and he wants us to be the 51st state. it the disconnect between reality and and the justification smith is using right now is becoming so stark that even very diehard conservatives are having trouble with it and so can
Corey: she ride that bull i don't know that's an interesting question but um yeah she's in a really weird place right now i think she's in the weirdest place of everybody uh polyev's in probably the most damaging place of everybody but smith's in the weirdest one
Zain: carter are they all on the same myelin together as i've i even i don't posit that to you but it's a starting point for me or are you teasing it apart like like cory has here no
Carter: you teasing it
Carter: no i mean pierre polyev has seen very clearly that he has to to bring forward different messaging than daniel smith i mean he's gone right away to canada first he's he's trying to put on his captain canada cloak and uh you know fly away or maybe it's a cape um but he's he's trying to to show that he's part of the team team while showing that he's not part of Justin Trudeau's team, which, frankly, I think I don't begrudge him that positioning. I think that that's the position that that he should have. He's the opposition leader, not the guy that he's not the deputy prime minister. And he should be in a position where he can critique from outside. But I'd like to see him doing. And
Carter: And I think that he's to a degree he's doing this. He's starting to become more like a government in waiting. um and this
Carter: this really fast pivot away from his carbon tax um you know it was going to be a carbon tax election two weeks ago three weeks ago maybe if we were if we're not as kind um and now it's not and it's just gone that opportunity has ended um he's moved pretty fast to canada first i think it's a terrible move i think that the messaging and the branding is entirely wrong after your your great cousin to the united states to the south is just uh you know done america first and it's turning into a fucking gong show for us but that's a different issue i think the peers on his own uh i'm going to steal cory's metaphor and go with the jet ski well danielle smith instead of being on an island i've put her on a on a slowly sinking sailboat uh that has lost the wind and is just sitting out there in the middle of the of the lake and no one no one not even scott moe wants to go rescue her scott moe was on the sailboat earlier uh but he somehow managed to just kind of disappear
Carter: he's not really there he's not really not there but he's he's managed to disappear from the zeitgeist because danielle smith has taken most of the heat cory
Zain: talk to me about this we'll talk about the canada first brand in a second keeping
Zain: with our stream of analysis, I am curious to get your take. If you see any daylight between Trudeau, Carney, and Freeland,
Zain: and where do you see that daylight, if anywhere, and should there be any? And how do two of those three people who are trying to become the next prime minister separate themselves from the guy who is prime minister, when that seems to be the fundamental task of the leadership, but may not necessarily be the fundamental task for the country in the moment? I
Zain: I don't know if I'm explaining that correctly. So I'm kind of curious if how you're looking at the dynamic between the three of them and how they need to play this well
Corey: So I'm kind of curious
Corey: it's interesting because in some ways it feels like they've consciously taken the dynamic off the table all of the leadership candidates signing that statement uh effectively saying yeah we're with the prime minister i'm paraphrasing deeply right but it's effectively said we're going to let the federal government do the analysis and by the way a bit of an aside here that makes perfect sense one of the things One of the things that I think people fail to appreciate is just how much more you know when you're in government than when you're out of government. And yeah, you can read all of the newspaper articles you want. You don't have a Department of Trade who's going to tell you exactly the consequences of each of these choices for both yourself and your and your allies slash not allies down south. south you don't have the knowledge of what the conversations have been with great britain with germany with any of your other potential partners and so you've got to sort of let the prime minister cook right you got to let him do his thing this is the time where you've really got to rely on the analysis that the federal government is doing doesn't
Zain: uh effectively
Zain: any of your
Corey: mean they're always going to be right it just means everything else being equal they're more likely to be right than you because they They just know so much more, and this is a very complex, very information-dependent exercise we now find ourselves in. So I think that's one thing, and I think that the liberal leadership candidates, particularly Carney and Freeland, understand that.
Corey: has suggested going a little bit further on Tesla or Elon Musk. I can't remember exactly what she was proposing there. And
Zain: proposing
Zain: And
Carter: And
Zain: And
Corey: And so I guess you could say there's a little bit of daylight there, but it's not strong. wrong and also at the technical briefing today the federal government basically hinted that that might be coming anyways right so in some ways it might just be a
Corey: a little ahead not so much as different in
Zain: carter in some strange way these campaigns are directly and indirectly lobbying the federal government um and with with you know certain measures that they want right talking about dollar for dollar or elon musk etc but in the moment is there a political penalty penalty to be played by agreeing with the prime minister
Zain: no okay
Carter: no okay this is this is probably the the i mean if
Zain: okay this is this
Carter: we accept the idea that this is an economic
Corey: economic
Carter: economic war and
Corey: and
Carter: and
Carter: and i think that canadians in general have accepted the idea that this is an economic war war was declared upon us and we are responding in kind it is uh and the reason i say that is that i i evidenced the the booing of the in calgary In Calgary, at the hockey game, there was a booing of the American National Anthem. For our listeners who
Zain: For our listeners who may not be from Alberta, why do you emphasize in Calgary a few times? I actually am not sure why you do myself. Because
Carter: I actually
Corey: Because
Zain: Because Calgary
Carter: Because
Corey: Calgary
Carter: Calgary is, number one, the most American city in Canada. We have the most Americans who actually live here. Number two, our oil and gas industry is paramount. And the protection of the oil and gas industry, I think, would be deemed to be super important. important and we got a little carve out there so we got a little bit of what we wanted and yet we still said fuck you trump uh by booing the national anthem i
Carter: can't
Zain: can't remember where i was going before no you're saying in calgary in calgary the booing of the national anthem you're effectively going down that path and i interrupted yeah
Carter: can't remember where i was going before no
Carter: that path
Carter: yeah i think that i think it i think that the booing of the national anthem i think that people understand that they're in a economic war and uh this
Carter: this is uh this is time for people to come together and people expect Pierre Polyev to be together. They expect Elizabeth May to be together. They would expect Jagmeet Singh to be together but no
Carter: no one's seen him so it's really irrelevant. You know, so when Elizabeth May, you know, like, no, I'm not going to go down there, but bottom line, these people have made,
Carter: they're jumping in on a war, on war footing, and I wouldn't even be surprised to see um justin
Carter: justin trudeau take steps to bring to bring pauliev in even closer so
Zain: this is i i really am intrigued by that cory
Zain: cory can we go back to the federal scene between the two leaders for a second one who's going to be leaving in five six weeks and the other one who is trying to become prime minister and was almost guaranteed the job a year ago by the canadian public with steady polls if you're pauliev right now are you worried that you're not necessarily getting the the spotlight as you have for the last two years on this issue or can you wait this out and as long as you're right on the overall notion canada
Zain: canada first inflation etc you still are you're fine you're still okay or are you are you wanting every single day that the pm goes up or escalates or this conversation happens to get into the news and desperately be there on a day-to-day basis how How are you thinking about this if you're him? If I'm Polyev,
Corey: Polyev, I'm fucking terrified that I'm about to blow a 25-point lead because the ground has shifted so fundamentally. And the decisions that I made in the lead-up at that moment. Like terrified?
Zain: -up at that moment.
Corey: The decisions I made in the lead-up have put me in a box. I'm in a box of my own making here. And it is a desperately bad situation to be in. Now, don't
Corey: don't misunderstand me. He's still leading in kind of the pole of poles. It's looking fine for him. Instead of 25 points, we're now seeing 15 to 20. We'd call that a blowout in any other context, but it's hard to ignore the trend line that some of the pollsters are seeing. I'm not saying that you even have to love all of the pollsters, but wherever the pollster's baseline is, when they start seeing movement like that, there's always two things with polls, right? There's position and there's momentum. And the momentum is starting to tell a story that would really, really alarm me if I was Pierre Polyev. so i'm trying to get in there all of the time i'm trying to show that i'm captain canada we talked about this a couple of months ago even i think this is how you get into a maybe it wasn't that long maybe a month this a bidding war where you're just trying to be more canadian than the next guy you're canadian fuck you i've got three giant flags instead of your four shitty regular flags right and my my lectern has a sign that talks about how much i fucking love this country and you can easily see that starting to take shape and place here but it almost feels like like an ill thought out panic response and this maybe gets us into this conversation about canada first but yeah let's do it let's do it because that was good strategy start yeah start us off on it so
Zain: strategy
Carter: strategy start
Zain: start
Carter: so
Corey: so two problems with it one is obvious carter's already talked about it america first is the slogan of the guy that we all hate right now you know you've basically taken the slogan of the quote-unquote enemy and you're using that i just don't know if that's a particularly wise idea but problem
Corey: problem two is probably more fatal if
Corey: if if it becomes all about can't who's more who who's putting canada first it
Corey: it it actually they are not the answer to that question if you have like we talk about ballot questions a lot if your ballot question becomes who will put canada first the thing you've put on your fucking lectern you're
Corey: you're not the answer to that question you are not the answer to that question there are so many pictures that will be able to be trotted out of your your advisors in mega caps, you talking about how broken Canada is, you talking about how America is an example of what we need to do, you will fucking lose. And so I can't understand why they didn't go with something that was more like, I appreciate this particular phrasing is taken, but Canada strong, right? Like, I'm going to make Canada strong, we're going to win this by being strong, and I can make a strong and the liberals have made us weak. That more explicitly makes sense to me for the conservatives but canada first my
Corey: my dude nobody thinks you're the guy you go to when you need to put canada first for the liberals for all of their faults all of their foibles that's their brand you know that's a brand they've built over decades if not centuries at this point or like century plus it's a real challenge that he's got i don't know why he's putting himself in that position i
Zain: i mean carter corey does make a good point here and especially when we talk about the Liberals positioning as the natural governing party of Canada. A lot of that is historically around wrapping themselves in the flag. I mean, we've all had a strange... The flag they
Corey: The flag they invented. Correct. Correct. I was going to say, we've all had
Zain: Correct. Correct. I was going to say, we've all had a couple of stranger relationships with the flag, pandemic and all those other things, people rejecting the flag, so to speak. But if this becomes a... If the flag is the ballot box question, putting it simply,
Zain: Corey's assessment here might be right. What do you think about Canada First? And what do you think would make it better i like your two suggestions cory i want to give carter the same shot well
Carter: well i mean let's
Carter: let's just start off by going through a few synonyms right canada powerful canada muscular car canada brawny canada well built canada powerfully built counted a strapping i'm telling you are you are you creating canada can we
Zain: i'm telling you are you are you creating canada can we
Zain: we get early this is canada gpt
Carter: we get early this is canada gpt robust no No, it's a thesaurus. It's a thesaurus. It's Canada GPT.
Zain: robust no
Zain: It's Canada GPT. It's
Carter: It's a thesaurus.
Zain: thesaurus. Let's make sure we own that, Corey. Let's make sure we own Canada GPT.
Carter: make sure we
Corey: we own Canada GPT.
Corey: GPT. I mean, our own Canadian version of GPT. It's almost certainly taken, but okay. No, let's go for it. Anyways, you know,
Zain: I mean, our own Canadian version of
Carter: No, let's go for it. Anyways, you know, the point
Carter: point of the exercise, I mean, you're stealing your slogan anyways. You may as well steal someone else's. Like, you know, and I'm not sure I would go with Canada Strong. I think there's something, there's probably something there. there's probably something around there um but being the the captain of team canada is is probably the right thing um i would you know i haven't seen his response have we seen his response to justin trudeau last night like i've not seen uh him calling like i would come out calling for stronger measures um stronger measures that are that go after trump and go after elon musk so
Carter: so that's what i would like to see more action from a
Zain: so that's
Zain: a strategic perspective you want him to to punch harder punch high okay cory okay
Corey: okay build it onto this i 100 agree but i think this is exactly my concern with canada first for the conservatives you're not acting in a way that suggests that that is actually your dictating principle right like you
Corey: you are a little you mean authentically
Zain: you mean authentically
Zain: authentically like
Corey: like that you you're not you're
Zain: you're not you're not yeah right right look
Corey: look i mean the biggest time you're going to get into problems in politics is when what you're doing and what you're saying are so misaligned right like that just creates a tension that you're going to have to address at some point in some some way, shape or form. As much as we can become cynics and be like, oh, it's just words. It's just words. You know, their actions are so different than their words. The reality is we pick words that people believe. And a lot of the belief comes from actions we can point to, proof points we say, right? And if you're saying I'm Canada first, but I won't fucking say a word about Danielle Smith going down to Mar-a-Lago, people are going to call you on that. If you say I'm Canada first, but you don't want to call out extremists because you know that your donor base has an awful lot of extremists in it people are going to call you out on it he or or if you've been
Zain: look
Zain: or if you've been spending the last three years telling people how broken canada is yeah
Corey: yeah inherently
Zain: inherently of course due to justin trudeau but you know that shit has a blast radius beyond your control in some ways a box of his own making is how i
Corey: inherently
Corey: i described it
Zain: described
Zain: it and
Corey: and i stand by it i mean i think that one of the things that seem like a pretty good strategy for a few years you're starting to see the limitations at this moment and the comment was made on the strategist discord and
Corey: and it was so good and i think it was matt who made it and if it wasn't well matt congratulations you're being credited with this yeah
Zain: yeah the person who did make it if it wasn't matt you're never getting credit even when we change your name
Corey: even when we change your name to matt you know we probably have to then you'll get the credit for this year right but
Zain: know we
Corey: but it's
Corey: when you have spent all of these years talking about how broken and bad canada is is it's
Corey: it's hard to make the pivot to Canada is great. And it was, you know what? I don't think it was Matt now.
Corey: But it was, the idea is if you're
Corey: you're saying Canada is broken, that can only take you so far. It's like this negative, shitty emotion. And the minute Trudeau's gone, you're in a little bit of trouble. How do you then pivot to Canada's awesome? Canada's the best. The difference between, you
Corey: you know, this idea of Canada being broken and make America great again
Corey: is a difference of emphasis, right? right? Like, it's a difference of the greatness versus the challenges. And he chose to go with the challenges, and here we are.
Zain: difference of
Zain: the greatness versus the
Zain: He chose to go with leader of the opposition, which he chose to go with leader
Corey: leader of the opposition. One of Paul Welles' rules, right? Person who additions for the job of leader of the opposition gets it.
Zain: Carter, let's talk a bit about strategy beyond Pierre Polyev. And I like where we're going here, but I do want to spend a fair chunk of time I'm on what
Zain: do our leaders want and need the country to feel and
Zain: is just simply more patriotic, more Canada, more feels in that regard enough as part of our immune system that we need our domestic sort of public to feel. And then stemming from there, what sort of campaigns or tactics do we need to run? So, for example, a few things I want to throw out on the table. Do any of our provincial governments or our federal government need to take out a massive, you know, wrap yourself in the flag ad campaign? Do we need to take out specific tactical campaigns as it relates to products, services, common citizenship, civil society, helping one another, etc.? Do we need to go? Where do we need to go here, right? And I think we directionally and notionally know, but I'd like to spend a few more minutes strategically talking about what our leaders need the Canadian public to feel. Can you start us off on this and then I'll go to Corey?
Carter: Yeah, I think that there's a couple of things. The two examples that I think of right off the top are kind of like a mix of this. I'd like the Molson Canadian, I am Canadian ad, right?
Carter: right? That is what we need to feel is, you know, I am Canadian. I am Joe and I am Canadian. Canadian, you know, that ad needs to come, needs
Carter: needs
Zain: needs
Carter: needs to be part of the feeling. And then the other part of the feeling is when we all just intuitively and instinctively went out on our front door, on our front step and banged our pots and pans for the frontline workers who are helping us through COVID. Both of those are the feelings that we need to be feeling right now, because we have to wrap ourselves in the flag. We have to understand that we as a collective are under attack we need to understand that we are part of that and we are the defense to it we are we're going to feel the the uh we are we are the their enemy at this point and then we also have to have this collective sense of it's going to be tough but we're going to get through it together because i i think that what we're not quite understanding yet is
Carter: how much this is going to hurt right it It will hurt Canadians. It will hurt Albertans. It will hurt Calgarians. Wherever you live, whatever you do, your
Carter: your life's about to get harder in
Carter: in the same way that your life got harder during COVID. And we were all in it together until we weren't. And
Carter: the interesting thing that I think is fascinating is that the federal election is coming up in a timeline where
Carter: where we're
Carter: all probably still going to be together before
Carter: we start to break apart. And that's a very interesting scenario. Very interesting scenario. Corey,
Zain: Corey, I'm going to get you to answer this question, but I wanted to clarify one thing with Stephen, and I really appreciate your answer, Carter.
Zain: You said enemy. Was that deliberate to have our leaders ensure that to the public that the United States is our enemy? No, no,
Carter: No, no, no,
Carter: no, no, no. I
Carter: I said we are their enemy.
Zain: I said we
Carter: That is a very different phrasing and a very different position. OK, excellent.
Zain: That is a very
Zain: very different position. OK, excellent.
Zain: excellent. Glad I clarified. Right. How about the other way around? What do they need? What do they need Canadians to feel about Americans? Right. How should they view them as the opposition? Right. Should they view them as simply as temporary opposition? Should it be charged at Trump? Should how do we process? Right. Give me the guardrails. Give me the tracks in terms of how I as a Joe public sitting right here need to think about this and feel about this, Carter. Well,
Carter: I think that we want to feel betrayed by our best friend, right?
Carter: right?
Zain: right?
Carter: right? We want to, in some fashion, feel like our best friend betrayed us and we'd still like to be friends with them, but
Zain: right? We
Carter: but we can't be friends as long as they continue to betray us. If they stop betraying us and they apologize, then we can be best friends again, because that's what best friends do. We don't hold a grudge sort of thing.
Zain: We don't hold a grudge sort of thing. We
Carter: We make up, right?
Carter: right? You know, Corey and I, after all these years, back together again, right? Almost friends.
Zain: Almost friends. I was going to say, after all these years, almost friends. Almost friends.
Carter: these years, almost friends. Almost friends. This close.
Zain: friends. This close.
Carter: You know, the betrayal of
Zain: betrayal of
Carter: of not being invited to his wedding still stings, but I'm going to get through it. I had a wedding. I
Zain: I had
Corey: had
Zain: had a wedding.
Corey: wedding.
Zain: I
Carter: eloped. Yeah. Yeah. I wasn't invited. Were you invited, Zane?
Zain: No, I sat right next to him and I found out he got married when he returned on the Monday. You're welcome. Yeah.
Carter: was upset. I was upset. I'm still upset. I was
Zain: I was not upset. I still thought his name didn't have an E in it, so I barely knew him then.
Zain: right. I also thought the CEO of our company was a Jewish woman, and he turned out to be an Indian man.
Corey: also thought the CEO of our company
Zain: Okay, great. Goldie Heider, look him up. Very proud, very Indian. Good dude. Corey, keep going. Carter, keep going on this. No,
Corey: Goldie Heider, look him up.
Corey: proud,
Carter: very
Corey: very
Carter: very
Carter: No, I'm done.
Zain: That's
Carter: That's all I have. I think it's really important, though, that we do not position ourselves that we are the enemies with the United States. Right now, they have made us their enemy.
Zain: I have. I
Zain: Right now, they
Corey: they have made us their enemy.
Zain: enemy.
Zain: Corey, what do we need the Canadian, what do our leaders need the Canadian public to feel? I
Corey: think disappointment
Corey: disappointment and betrayal are the things that Canadians are feeling right now. I don't know that we need them to feel that, but that's got to be channeled into resolve. So Stephen is 100% right that the pain hasn't happened yet. Before every fight, before every war, trade or otherwise, bluster is high. People say, you know what, I'm going to win and fuck you and you're going to get hurt and I'm not going to get hurt. Well, the experience of every war, trade or otherwise, is both sides get hurt. And that hurt sucks. And I disagree that we're not going to hold a grudge on this. I actually think that one of the things that's likely to come out of this is a trepidation towards the United States going forward. And this is probably a time where a party could have a serious conversation about what it means to be economically sovereign, militarily sovereign, culturally sovereign. And those lead, again, to some answers that maybe take you away from the conservatives on two out of those three. And one of those three, the conservatives could very much take on, like military sovereignty, I mean. So it's going to be interesting to see. And the answer is really quite dependent on who you are. And we,
Corey: we, I mean, here we are at minute 50. We haven't mentioned that Doug
Corey: Doug Ford called an election because he thought, well, this is a great fucking opportunity. You know, I could win something on this. And there's going to be different types of opportunism that occurs right here too. and so what
Corey: what do they want them to feel what are your objectives in the short term for doug ford they want them to feel we
Corey: we need a fighter like we fucking need somebody who's going to stand up for this he's gone with protect ontario
Zain: stand up for this he's gone with protect ontario as is that's right yeah
Corey: that's right yeah you know yeah if you're um if you're just a trudeau that's not what you want them to feel you don't want them to feel we need a fighter you want them to feel we need to double down on being canadian to get this done like we gotta have have resolve about who we are. So different goals, different objectives, different ambitions.
Zain: yeah you know yeah if
Zain: Tactics. Talk to me about some tactics that let's just narrow in on the federal government or provincial leaders, ad campaigns, other things like what, how would you be thinking about this as we escalate on the actual measures? How would you be thinking about the vibes, the feelings, how you bring the public alongside? Who wants to go first, Carter? Carter,
Zain: you just yawned. So do you want to go first?
Carter: you just yawned.
Carter: No, I'll go first because it's 925. And it's almost been. But I think that I think that we want an ad campaign. I think that we want to see that the federal government is acting. And, you know, right now the communications are, you know, the list of foods or the list of goods that are being – you know, facing tariffs on Tuesday
Zain: But I think that
Corey: the federal
Zain: federal
Carter: Tuesday was circulated. I don't know if you guys tried to read that, but your eyes go crossed. I did.
Corey: I did.
Carter: You know, that's not a communications campaign. campaign that's information and communications is very very different than just simply disseminating information and with that lob i'll throw it over to my friend cory hogan yeah
Corey: information
Zain: information and
Corey: well first off what the fuck is this is a question that canadians are still grappling with some more than others kind of brings us back to where you started us zane right yeah but if people think oh this is just a legitimate concern of americans and we'll just resolve this and this is just a regular trade And, you know, regular trade wars require us to use the regular trade war book.
Zain: yeah but
Corey: It's going to lead you to one course of actions. If it's not that, it leads you to a different course of action. And so I think that if I'm the federal government, I'm spending a fair bit of money
Corey: money making sure that we have a consensus in a country as to what this is. and i do think with these things where people are starting in different places you have to give them a way to artfully get to your position without backing down or eating a bunch of shit so for sure that means talking about alberta's premier danielle smith specifically and how you get her more on team canada's bus more fully and almost get her to feel like well i've been betrayed by donald trump you know i was willing to give it a shot that was a reasonable thing to do have the prime minister say that was a reasonable thing danielle but here we are right uh but it's not just her it's just in general trying to move people away from the notion that this is normal some of that will occur with time if things play if steps escalate right like we're we're recording this on a sunday night donald trump and justin trudeau are talking tomorrow morning that's all
Zain: all here yeah donald
Corey: here
Corey: donald trump is taking a lot of flack for this and his protests are pretty lame online line right now he might do what he did with columbia which is surrender and then declare victory right so
Zain: so
Corey: so
Zain: so we'll
Corey: we'll see and
Zain: and he could at any point it's such a manufactured especially when you go back because it's order like
Corey: like how do you solve a fake problem i don't know just declare it solved it like it's it's not hard right but like let's just his most
Zain: let's just his most recent thing is he's posting new york post articles with toby looking from shopify being like look even this guy agrees yeah i mean
Corey: yeah i mean
Zain: mean it's just like it's pretty lame it's
Corey: it's pretty lame validators it's lame validators it's It's a great point. So, you know, if you can get them, though, to understand what this is and get to that next playbook, I'll
Zain: pretty lame validators
Corey: I'll tell you, the playbook is the war playbook. And again, we're going to use war in this broad term to include trade wars here, right? But it's
Corey: propaganda campaigns in the country saying, look at the enemy and be aware of them, right? It's buy bonds, buy Canadian. It's nationalizing, you know, the National Post and Post Media and saying, okay, we can't have foreign an interference in our conversations around here by the way i think an idea that is not crazy is to nationalize the national post and then give the shares to the people who work for the national post or post media i mean in canada and basically say we'll get the money from you when you sell your shares right like we can't have a foreign hedge fund owning all of our daily newspapers at a moment like this when that nation anyways i don't want to detour on that but the point is that's
Carter: that's a great idea that's
Corey: that's a great idea that's
Corey: that's almost like a lend lease plan that you bring forward so look at what we did in world war ii look at what we did in korea look at what we do when times get tough and those things generally go to getting
Corey: getting the team on side making
Corey: making sacrifice your moral duty and then going from there hanging together and doing the hard things carter
Zain: we're going to move it on to our over under our lightning round steven carter we do this for you because we we like to give you enough time uh to wind down before bed i
Corey: we
Carter: we we like
Corey: like
Carter: i do enjoy we don't want
Zain: we don't
Zain: want you all riled up yeah we don't want you to just go straight from microphone to sack uh
Carter: you to just go straight from
Zain: uh and just roll over right it had to be a better
Carter: right it had to be a better phrasing
Corey: better phrasing yeah yeah
Zain: yeah
Carter: yeah yeah yeah to sack was not exactly i got it immediately made
Zain: yeah yeah
Corey: yeah to
Corey: got it immediately made me think of dominic leblanc in
Carter: in his yeah hand in his pocket i
Carter: i thought alanis morissette
Zain: thought alanis
Zain: alanis
Zain: carter cory cory already gave me his answer to this. Or he may not have. I'll give him another shake at it. One campaign or one strategy, a campaign run by a government, a third party, a citizens group, a labor organization that you would pitch to get
Zain: get started right now in the face of this broader This broader threat, the domestic sort of vibes and currents, what would you be thinking of? And it could be housed anywhere. I'll give you like this wide berth in terms of what it is and where it could go. One campaign that Stephen Carter would want to put on the table and see active right now, active and alive right now. Well,
Carter: Well, it's funny. I think that we're going to see a lot of campaigns become active because all of a sudden we are energized for politics. We are energized for these words. I would love to have no Australian mines on the eastern slopes, no multinationals, no external companies mining our coal out of our pristine environment. environment um it doesn't need to be uh buy local chickens right like it doesn't need to be you know buy local meats it doesn't need to be buy within 100 miles everything is going to be on the table because every everybody has changed the way that they're interacting on this stuff they're not just going to be interacting on you know isn't this interesting this this situation that has happened with the trade war. This is everything. This is the hockey game is getting protested. So if the hockey game is being protested, find a unique and interesting way to do your campaign, whatever it is. And in a perfect world, partner up. Find two or three other organizations because this is the time to make your organization have more breadth and more strength than it
Carter: normally would. But,
Carter: Corey,
Zain: Corey, what do you think?
Corey: Give me $40 million a month, and I will make his life a living hell in the United States. We should run the most excruciating, targeted, reminding you every single dollar. No, better than the Lincoln. Here's the reality. There is a real foundational reason their prices are going to go up as a result of Donald Trump's actions. That's a real thing.
Zain: reminding you every
Carter: every
Corey: You could make them think their prices are going up because of Donald Trump's actions without a real thing. But you actually have a real fucking thing. You could have signs up, you could have billboards outside a grocery store saying, on average, your trip to this grocery store is going to cost X number of dollars more because Donald Trump decided to pick a fight with Canada, or whatever. Like, you know, you focus group it, you identify those target audiences, you make the pain real in the areas where it hurts them the most. i
Corey: think that given the consequences to our economy spend a lot of money well advertising in the united states to just make it not worth the time for them like just to hurt them like crazy fuck them up on everything else they want to do in their project 2025 thing make them think good for the love of god we're going to be running a u.s presidential style campaign to attack ads against us from now until the end of time if we don't just relent on these stupid fucking canadian and tariffs can i join your
Carter: can i join your company when we get that contract i
Corey: i mean you can addition for a job maybe
Zain: i got i got listen i got i got three more over under questions but i'm not gonna go to them because i actually want to pick up on what corey said and end on here you
Corey: not gonna go to them
Corey: you also looking for a job is that what's going on no i'm not just me okay no i don't i don't like to work
Zain: no i'm not just me okay
Zain: i don't i don't like to work um if this show is any uh any proof point hey listen corey um you
Corey: work um
Zain: said something that was quite interesting which is The American campaign, which I wanted to bring up, I like that a lot. But you also mentioned earlier that the Trump-Trudeau conversation is happening tomorrow morning. Give
Corey: Give
Carter: me
Zain: me a sense of the terrain from as many areas as you can or want to, should this trade dispute be resolved by the end of tomorrow. Trump declares victory, 25% and 25 and 10 is off the table, 25 on 30 billion and then an extra 155 is off the table from us. And then the haze kind of settles. what's the terrain here and here's what i'm trying to ask do the conservatives have the edge again is the ballot box question reset uh you know like is just like what happens in this haze where if and this is not impossible it's not like
Corey: just like
Zain: like
Zain: like i'm not betting on it but it's not impossible that donald trump declares victory tomorrow so let's just end with this hypothetical exercise and give me a sense of where you think the terrain goes if that were to happen tomorrow and carter same question to get to finish this off so
Corey: so i definitely don't think it's impossible i think if there's one thing we've learned about donald trump it's that he's he's a caged animal and he reacts to the stimulus that occurs right and one of the things he's getting right now is a lot of abuse from people who normally give him praise like the wall street journal like uh you know well just in general the murdoch properties right are saying what the hell are you doing fox news is running lists of these are the things that are going to get more expensive and having dug for doing a
Zain: and having dug for doing a
Corey: a morning and an evening hit with them absolutely and so i think i really wouldn't discount this possibility that um and you can easily see how it happens right you get on a call if you're the prime minister you're saying well fuck i'm not gonna like sewer our entire economy just to make him eat a bunch of shit so i say yes donald we'll put another 200 million dollars into uh you know we're gonna do better at hitting our nato commitments because we should fucking do that anyways right not the five percent trump's come up with but the three percent so we're gonna invest best
Zain: but the three percent so we're
Corey: 10 billion dollars more in our military right and then donald trump says yeah
Corey: yeah i talked to the canadian prime minister what a weakling i'm
Carter: a weakling
Zain: weakling i'm
Zain: i'm so sad yeah
Corey: yeah he's so sad tragic but he agreed that he'd do what's necessary to protect it america first we won you know and then declare victory and he can point to this thing and then we all move on with our lives but it
Corey: is an open question to me if that resets things because i don't believe in that scenario he fully takes tariffs off the table I think that would be too much of a climb down for him. So I think he says, but I still got this loaded gun on the table, basically. And I think Canadians have learned something here, right? And it's not to trust America. And it has fundamentally changed the environment, regardless of what happens next. Is it enough to sustain to an election in six months? Hell no. But to Stephen's point, the timing of this potential election is really interesting. We could be in an election.
Zain: I think that would be
Corey: I mean, we could be in an election sooner than that, right? We could get to next week when $125,000 is due from each of the liberal leadership candidates. And everyone says, you know what, I'm out. Mark, you can have this. Mark, it's yours. Yeah, yeah. I don't have 125. I could easily see that, which means he gets sworn in, which means the governor general probably says, okay, get parliament back. I'm not going to let you be prime minister for a month and a half without proving that you can have the confidence of the House. And we're in an election like that. And if we're in an election underneath the cloud of everything that just happened, I don't think there's time for it to pivot back. October election, we're talking about different things, for sure.
Zain: you can have this. Mark, it's yours. Yeah, yeah. I don't have 125.
Corey: April election, I don't know.
Corey: Carter, I'm
Zain: I'm going to give you a shake on this.
Carter: to give you a shake on
Corey: on
Carter: I want you to think back to the last time you wet your pants.
Carter: And you're
Carter: you're going to remember that for quite a while, right?
Carter: right? You remembered it not just in the moment, not just when you were taking off your pants, not just as you were having a shower. What is this, last week? I don't want to undercut
Corey: I don't want to undercut your metaphor, but I cannot tell you when the last time I wet my pants was. Oh, I remember. My mind's
Zain: mind's like—
Carter: Yeah, no, I'm asking Zane, not you. It's when we
Zain: we finalized the purchase for DisgraceLeaderBrown.com. Oh, great. I was like, we got it. And he went as
Carter: great. I
Carter: as fast as he could. He was so happy. But you feel it for a while, and you don't let go of that feeling for quite some time. Well,
Zain: fast as he could. He
Carter: Well, Canada just collectively pissed our pants. And
Carter: And we're not going to let go of this collective feeling for some time. And I think that the person that really benefits is Mark Carney. I don't think that, you know,
Carter: know, I think that the liberal leadership is unfolding that way and that the election is going to be held in relatively short order. I don't think those are two secrets. I think that that's actually going to happen.
Carter: And if those things happen the
Carter: the way that Corey described them, then
Carter: all
Carter: all of a sudden Pierre-Paul Lievre is on the back foot. And it's not about where the numbers are. Where
Carter: Where the numbers are is almost irrelevant. It's always the slope of the graph.
Carter: How much momentum do you have? If it is a downward slope, you're sucking wind. It is all over. Your life can't – you can't turn it around.
Carter: If it is an upward slope,
Carter: your life – everything is easier. And
Carter: And right now, liberals have an upward slope and the conservatives have a downward slope.
Zain: Let's end on this. I said I was going to end on that, but let's end on this.
Zain: Overrated, underrated, Corey. 400,000 liberal registrants now revealed as being the voter base for this election in March. overrated
Corey: overrated or underrated i'm
Corey: gonna go with overrated
Corey: that's a lot of people i don't mean that that's overrated if there were actually 400 000 but i think that now the liberals have a challenge in that the
Corey: the number of voters will almost certainly not be 400 000 like the barrier to get that first step done is pretty low i could fill it in for everybody possibly i would
Zain: everybody possibly i would say yeah
Corey: yeah i could fill it in for everybody i know that's not enough to get to vote you're gonna have to prove that you're eligible to vote you're gonna have to probably scan your id with your phone or something I don't know what they're actually considering. It's so funny. I was so in on this liberal leadership contest. I was talking to people. I was trying to figure it all out. And then Trump happened and I got pretty distracted. But I do know it will be a two-step process where there is more gating. And that 400,000 is going to become 200,000 overnight is going to come to like 150 who actually vote. This is my prediction. And so the liberal challenge now is going to be that that number is coming down. It's actually kind of a good add-on from Carter's last point. It's the momentum. It's the trajectory. If you had said to me, 150,000 people vote in this liberal leadership contest, I'd be like, fuck, really? That's amazing. But now, if you're like, it's 400. Actually, it's not going to be 400. It's 200. Actually, it's going to be 150.
Zain: yeah i
Corey: I'm not going to think it's bad, but I'm not going to think it's amazing. And so I think that in
Corey: in that sense, it's overrated. Carter, overrated or underrated?
Carter: I think it's underrated. I think that, first of all, we seem to be forgetting right off the top, this was a very short period of time. And Corey and I have also decided that we have reached an agreement, and henceforth, all leadership shall be this length of time. We're of
Corey: this length of time. We're of accord. The strategists have decreed it's an official position of the Strategist Media Corporation. This proves all leadership contests should just be like two months long.
Corey: Tops. tops i
Zain: i
Corey: i
Zain: was not consulted but i i can get on board you
Carter: you
Carter: you weren't consulted i want you to think about that yeah
Zain: yeah
Zain: yeah okay that's the person who ran the most successful leadership race most recently that's fine you know what
Carter: you know what you know how long was that fucking leadership race i
Zain: i i for according to you it was done in two days yeah exactly
Carter: exactly so
Corey: exactly so it took a lot done yeah
Carter: it took a lot done yeah
Corey: yeah
Corey: yeah a lot of wasted time in there a lot of fat to cut a
Carter: a lot of fat to cut um
Carter: um
Zain: um okay
Zain: i can get on board but carter you're still going one with underrated finishes off on that thought and then i'll wrap us up i
Carter: i think 400 000 people signed up in two weeks that's an amazing thing it's
Carter: it's
Zain: it's wild i
Carter: wild i
Carter: i think that 200 000 people could vote 150 000 people could vote it won't matter 400 000 people have their names in a database and
Zain: i think that 200
Corey: 200
Carter: and the liberals get to play with them yeah
Corey: i mean i thought that there were i didn't think they were going to get more than they had like we've been so conditioned over time to think you need time to register these members but it turns out it's the same
Corey: no matter how much time you give yourself everybody's so good because the time always boils down to two
Carter: everybody's so good because the time always boils down to two things the launch and
Corey: and
Carter: and the finish you're right and it
Corey: it had a launch and it had a finish so yeah that's
Carter: a
Zain: that's it it also follows the basic principle right like the work takes as long as you have to get it done sort of thing and if you give people a long period of time they will slack off for three months if they can is that
Corey: that what you did on your campaign is that what you did no I that explains some of the transition for the three months challenges there yeah I don't
Zain: that what
Carter: is that what you did no I that explains some of the transition for the three months challenges
Zain: I don't know what I did for the three months. I have no idea. It's just a time gone. Yeah. I don't gloat about my successes. Our
Zain: successes. Well, you only
Carter: successes. Well, you only have the one.
Carter: That's true.
Zain: we wrap it up?
Zain: I guess that's it. I'm pretty hurt after that. Someone else want to do it? Connor,
Corey: guess that's it.
Zain: how about you do it? We're going to leave it there. That's it for
Carter: it?
Carter: We're going to leave it there. That's it for another episode of The Strategist. Episode 1848F.
Corey: for
Corey: 1848F.
Carter: With me as always. Episode for fucked.
Corey: With me as always. Episode for fucked.
Carter: With me as always. zane belgi butthurt as always and uh cory hogan thanks for listening we'll
Zain: see you next time oh
Carter: okay i forgot that part