Transcript
Zain
0:01
This is a strategist episode 1848. F. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Carter, what does the F stand for?
Corey
0:11
Fucked, indeed. Didn't take much
Zain
0:13
much time on that, though.
Zain
0:14
Yeah, fucked. It actually took more time than it needed to, Carter. Yeah.
Zain
0:19
You were just one and a half beats, and we needed the half beat there. That should have been the tip of your tongue. Oh,
Zain
0:25
Are you just going around all day saying fucked? Because I know you are, Corey.
Corey
0:29
yeah i am yeah my socials kind of relay that point pretty strongly i think right now
Corey
0:35
can i need to put myself on a bit of a time you know what hey we've never talked about this coryhogan
Corey
0:41
i got a sub stack now it's
Corey
0:43
it's got four articles i got a sub stack four articles i started it in november so my my you know my articles per month are not great yet
Zain
0:53
over Over 1,000 subscribers, that's not bad.
Corey
0:57
You know what? And that's only not four articles. Aren't even paying you? They're paying me an attention, which is the only currency that matters in 2025.
Zain
1:06
Oh, that's good. That's a good answer. That's
Carter
1:08
good answer. Lord knows the Canadian dollar doesn't mean we fuck
Corey
1:11
It's a little problematic, unfortunately. Yeah.
Zain
1:13
Yeah. I do like that you're pumping the strategist podcast. You are saying other place to find me includes the strategist. This is an interesting Corey Hogan logo. logo it's like a it's like a modern day checker cab yeah
Corey
1:27
you know i go
Corey
1:28
go with the classics saying i was you know what i picked a color i didn't want the color to be associated with a political party so i went with uh yellow i
Corey
1:36
yellow was good yeah
Zain
1:37
one of you have frequently asked questions on your sub stack and one of them is i do what is stephen carter like and the answer is nobody knows carter
Zain
1:45
carter would you like to interject no
Carter
1:47
no i think that's exactly right
Zain
1:49
of us can really know Stephen. No
Carter
1:50
No one knows Stephen Carter. Yeah.
Zain
1:53
These are not bad. These are not bad FAQs, including the fact that you humble brag your GMAT score, Corey.
Zain
2:00
Just get that inserted in
Corey
2:01
I'm so proud of you. You were the first person to notice that I created an about page, and you realized it.
Corey
2:08
Not only is it you who realized it, but you realized it on air. And so I'm just really proud of you right now. I'm proud of me right now, too, if I'm being honest. Well, four articles.
Zain
2:17
1,000 subscribers. I mean, that's not bad at all. It's not a bad ratio, right? I doubt any of these articles are good. I'm sure three out of four of them have not aged well.
Zain
2:25
Oh, no, actually, I think I'm okay with all of them right
Zain
2:28
you read them, Carter? Are they good? Yeah.
Carter
2:30
No, I have no idea. I didn't remember. I don't remember. They didn't really land in your mind. None of the content stuck in my head.
Zain
2:38
remember, Carter, let's just jump into our first segment. Our first segment, This Means War. Stephen Carter, can you remember the last 24 hours? And where were you on Saturday night when Luka Doncic got traded?
Carter
2:52
Where was I? I was
Carter
2:54
was at home. I was at home. I saw
Zain
2:56
saw it happen. Do a TikTok for us, like a TikTok, like how it happened for you.
Carter
3:01
Well, I was scrolling my blue sky, because I don't do the X very much anymore. I was scrolling my blue sky, and actually, I think that something came up about a Luka thing. and I immediately thought, well, I don't care about that. My name's not Luca. And I kept going.
Carter
3:20
And then I thought of the Suzanne Vegas song, My Name is Luca.
Corey
3:24
And then you thought, oh, okay. That's
Corey
3:26
That's the end of my thoughts. All right, that's pretty good, though.
Zain
3:29
Okay, so Corey, we've learned from Carter that he only cares about things that mention his name. So probably minimal value in this tariff conversation we're about to have, as there is no direct tariff or retaliatory tariff against Stevens. Stevens, uh, or Carters. Stephen
Corey
3:45
Stephen Miller was involved. Stephen Miller
Zain
3:48
Miller was involved, uh, for sure. It is domestic policy and that guy, uh, and I don't know, I'm not going to say it because I just don't know the current status of our libel insurance. Um, Corey, tell me, where were you when
Zain
4:01
when Luka Doncic, uh, got traded to the LA, uh, Lakers?
Corey
4:06
Uh, you know, I, I think i was somewhere in the vicinity of watching the trudeau talk about the tariff uh retaliation i guess and i thought well that's pretty good i mean at least it gives donald trump a fighting chance of not being you know the worst trade decision of the day but uh it remains to be seen right yeah
Corey
4:25
i think we can all agree weird trade right weird trade was
Carter
4:29
was it really though i mean after the vice president of basketball operations removed the beer from his hand wasn't that a clear signal that luca wasn't going to be staying any longer why
Corey
4:42
why would that be a clear signal that's a clear
Carter
4:43
clear signal that he shouldn't have a beer we can't respect you as a man we can't respect you as a man you can't be trusted to drink your own beer it'd be like if if zane went to your house right now and removed that canned beverage from your from your from your cold dead hand yeah
Corey
5:00
yeah but he wouldn't because he respects me as a man he
Carter
5:03
he respects you as a man so the second i saw that i I thought to myself, there's why he got traded.
Corey
5:08
So, Zane, how do you feel about that one?
Carter
5:10
Corey, I have to say,
Zain
5:10
let me just jump in here. Listen,
Zain
5:13
Carter's had the better basketball take than you on this, Corey.
Zain
5:17
Okay. Carter, with his minimal knowledge, has nailed this once again.
Carter
5:23
Carter, I'm hoping you can bring
Zain
5:25
bring that same energy to the fuckery that is now a trade war that begins on Tuesday. Well, in many ways, it's already begun. It's already begun, yeah.
Zain
5:36
Carter, let's just start with thoughts, and then we'll start with analysis, and then we'll lead into strategy. Give me non-directional, or even if you'd like to make them directional, thoughts on where your head's at, where we sit today, February 2nd, nearly 9pm at night. Well,
Carter
5:53
Well, that noted liberal rag, the Wall Street Journal, didn't it call this the most untrade unnecessary trade war ever?
Carter
6:01
You know, that that to me is is kind of what strikes me is if we had a president that actually understood trade, if we had a president that actually understood how trade deficits work and all of those types of things, I think you would be able to see that you get a value for that. Right.
Carter
6:20
Right. But instead, he he's he's
Carter
6:22
he's trapped in a world where he doesn't understand value. He doesn't understand getting something for paying something. Lord knows he never pays for anything. So this
Carter
6:32
this is I think the Wall Street Journal nailed it. The most unnecessary trade war ever. And we're in the middle of it.
Zain
6:39
Corey, let's start with some thoughts from your end.
Corey
6:42
Wall Street Journal called it the dumbest trade war in history. Like, they pulled no punches. But I think that it's only the dumbest trade war in history if you assume it's about trade, because it makes absolutely no sense, right? Like, this idea of a surplus that Canada enjoys with the United States, that's well-worn. You don't need to go to this podcast to understand that. It's nonsense. nonsense it's like saying that uh you know my grocery store has a surplus with me because i buy more groceries from it like it's not a subsidy it doesn't make any it doesn't track it seems unbelievable to me that donald trump at some point in the past i don't know his really ancient life hasn't been told hey man this is what tariffs actually are it's not the point he knows that he doesn't care this is not about trade this is not about equality of trade it's certainly not not about fucking fentanyl which there's very little of going across the border and i would i would argue as a canadian probably more troubling things coming across the border from the united states in volume than than this uh than this path and um really it's about two things in my mind it's it's about money he wants to have an awful lot of money so that he can move out of having an income tax or at least as as quote unquote high of one it's not a very high income tax in the United States, but still. And it's about control. It's about saying, I'm going to push my weight around. Maybe if I play my cards right, I can get the 51st state. I can get my face put on Mount Rushmore. Everything that he's done since he's been reelected has been crazy town. And this is just one in a long line of crazy town. It has nothing to do with trade. We have to stop treating him like he's a rational actor with legitimate concerns, using trade as a legitimate tool.
Zain
8:21
Corey, where do you think our Canadian leaders are on that particular wavelength you've just mentioned in terms of accepting Trump's premise versus rejecting it? There's a spectrum of in terms of where our leaders are at, at least how we sense, but as a collective, where do you think we're at? And are we far enough down the track of rejecting his fentanyl border premise in some way? How do you think we're striking that? I shouldn't say balance, because that's not the goal. But how do you think we're doing on this?
Corey
8:48
I mean, so this is old school diplomacy that the federal government has to do right now. And I'm saying this because I want to preface it with one thing, which is the federal government's under no obligation to say what they mean. They're under no obligation to say the same thing in public as they're saying to the United States privately. privately and
Corey
9:05
so if if you were going to judge things entirely by the actions of the canadian government in public you would have to say they're clearly not far enough along right like they don't seem to realize this is not a trade war they're using trade as as uh you know a punitive response here right but i just don't believe based on reporting around the edges based on some of the word choices that they made and the subtext in it some of the implied threats that are going on that they don't understand what this is actually about now the canadian government sort of almost has an obligation of trying to look reasonable it's funny it sucks it's annoying that we have to deal with donald trump where there's no such obligation but when it comes to the canadian government on round one at least they kind of have to take trump on his word and be like well it sounds like you've got a problem with this well we'll we'll try to reasonably do that and it's not because uh the rest of the world expects it it's not because canadians want it it's because the audience if there is any audience that has a chance of reigning in donald trump it's the it's the republicans it's the republican governors it's the people around him and canada's trying to remove the the grievances from the table so all that's left is nonsense i mean it's nonsense right now but you know what i'm saying and then hope that people will try to pull this thing back back onto the rails.
Zain
10:22
Carter, how are we doing in terms of trying
Zain
10:26
trying to fully understand the scope of the threat and what it is trying to highlight in terms of the soft tissue in the Canadian sort of relationship with the U.S. that Trump's trying to exploit?
Carter
10:38
I think we're doing pretty well. I think that Justin Trudeau understands. I think Corey's point about that, you know, taking this in steps and understanding that our response is going to be kind of a tit for tat to begin with. but will ultimately shift as the knowledge becomes more known to all Canadians. I'm anticipating lots of different shifts from various leaders, but I was really impressed to see David Eby's response in British Columbia and Doug Ford's response in Ontario. They both not only jumped on board with what Trudeau was doing, but they went further. um you know i i loved seeing the american alcohol being pulled off of the shelves um that to me it's it's just one little thing like it's not to a warehouse to
Corey
11:27
to be sold later but yeah it'll
Carter
11:28
it'll still be sold but it's just one little thing that um it sets the tone right uh canadian stores are starting to put up by canadian signs we're going to see a lot of that especially with the dollar dollar plunging against the American dollar.
Corey
11:44
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, we're going to have
Corey
11:48
have all that alcohol back, aged one trade war, I'm sure. But I think that the fact is Canadians and most of the politicians that Canadians are represented by seem to realize that the national mood is one of frustration and borderline rage. Like you, of course, have seen all of the sporting events, the hockey games that have happened coast to coast, the Raptors game that happened earlier earlier today the american anthem comes on people are booing they're booing in calgary they're booing in vancouver they're booing in montreal they're booing in toronto people
Corey
12:17
people aren't very happy right now and that's that's being funneled by a lot of the leaders that are that are seeing this they're saying okay well there's a parade and i want to get in front of it and um and so it's it's hard to say that the politicians are not well calibrated to that moment by and large i'm fucking sure we're We're going to get to Scott Moe and Daniel Smith at some point. But when you look at Canada en masse, it seems okay. Like a huge part of me, of course, wanted to see Justin Trudeau go for the absolute jugular last night, introduce a bunch of wild things. But
Corey
12:52
that's fine for step two. That's fine for step three. Step one of saying, okay, no, we are going to retaliate. And here's our escalation. Makes sense. You don't want to go all in before you've seen the flop. You certainly have to know that Donald Trump has said he's going to retaliate to your retaliation. So you want to have some room to go from there. So
Corey
13:10
So what they're doing is fine. Like, it's not, it's not like inspirational, get me jumping on my couch and cheering. It's fine. It's the kind of thing you'd want a Canadian leader to do. And it's pretty well tuned. Yeah, I can't complain too much. Carter,
Zain
13:23
Carter, how's Trudeau doing? How did he do last night, both with the suite of retaliatory measures, as well as how did he politically perform last night for your analysis?
Carter
13:33
Well, I mean, I had a number of people say to me today that if Trudeau, if this Trudeau had shown up over the last couple of years, that maybe he would have survived. Of
Carter
13:43
Of course, everyone says
Carter
13:44
But I'll be honest, I watched it and I didn't think that at all. I thought this is the Trudeau that shows up. This is the overlease. You know, he brought Sirius Trudeau and Sirius Trudeau places his voice in a special part of his throat where he starts to talk and
Carter
14:01
make sure that everybody understands that it's very,
Carter
14:08
important to Canada. and
Carter
14:10
i just fucking makes me insane because it's not real i i i used the exact same voice when i was doing you know monologues in my university drama classes which is why i no longer do monologues in university like they sucked they were horrible um and and we no one should have been subjected to him uh but you know justin trudeau found a way found a way to bring his his uh his drama
Carter
14:37
to all of us and and i
Carter
14:39
don't begrudge him what he's done i think that the way what he did was exactly right i have a couple of points now number one talk
Carter
14:48
talk like a human being i mean you're on your way out now you may as well may as well give it a whirl just on your way out and uh dominic leblanc get your fucking hands out of your pocket you look like you're touching something um
Carter
14:59
um it's it's not appropriate i
Corey
15:01
just don't know if that's on trudeau but uh i take that point. The
Zain
15:04
The Dom LeBlanc in the hands in the pocket? Yeah. Yeah.
Zain
15:07
I don't think that is on Trudeau. I think I'm going to happily give him a pass on that. Corey, where you at on Trudeau last night? You talked about the suite of measures. I got your analysis there. Give me your analysis on Trudeau and his political performance.
Corey
15:21
Yeah. So a couple of things that I think are interesting. One is that it started talking to Americans, not Canadians. Yes.
Corey
15:28
But I think it was still talking to Canadians, like very meta, but it's like Canadians want to see you're talking to americans so you got to talk to americans when you're talking to canadians right interesting i think that we can talk about that tactic a little bit here totally agree with steven that i mean this is the exact same fucking justin trudeau you always get and uh well i thought that his delivery was fine i thought he hit the moment pretty well by and large there i certainly didn't leave there saying man i wish this guy was still there in fact a couple of the questions when i was talking about hockey i think it was and he's like Like, and you know how we Canadians get about
Corey
16:04
about hockey, you know? I'm just like, fuck
Corey
16:07
fuck off. Just fuck off. Like that Trudeau, I cannot stand. And we definitely didn't need him last night at that moment.
Corey
16:15
By and large, it was good. It was serious. It was fine. I don't understand why three people who did nothing were standing behind him. It didn't show the solidarity. Oh, you mean the human
Zain
16:23
human wall? Carter can explain. Oh, I fucking hate the human wall. Could you have supplied them with a couple of brown people for that human wall? You know what? Do you have any in reserve that might be available? What you do is
Zain
16:34
is you find your
Zain
16:38
Because I saw zero minorities. I
Carter
16:40
did seem to be more role-based.
Carter
16:43
Do you? Can I tell
Corey
16:44
you as well? Please tell me for it.
Corey
16:46
This is getting into the weeds, but I
Corey
16:49
I live in the weeds, right? The four flags behind him hated it. Here's my thing. Carter, I want your opinion on this. Two flags? Fine. Normal event. A couple of flags. eight flags that's a wall of flags that's fine too yeah
Corey
17:03
four flags what the fuck is that there's a gap between each flag it's so clearly four flags then and it just bothered me and i it was like there was a flag per person who was there i didn't i didn't like it i
Carter
17:12
i got a confession to make
Carter
17:14
on the on the carney event i wanted four flags fuck
Carter
17:18
was overruled and we went with the giant big flag oh
Zain
17:20
oh well that would have changed my analysis i'll
Carter
17:22
i'll tell you something they were right in that decision you
Zain
17:25
you know they made
Carter
17:26
made the right you're
Zain
17:27
you're a big man for being able to admit admit that you could have had one flag between each minority group that you brought up to stage i didn't have that many flags
Carter
17:35
that was a lot of flags no i
Zain
17:36
i mean but if you did you could have
Carter
17:38
have separated you could
Zain
17:39
separated minority groups between flags it would have been very nice we
Carter
17:43
we were already having all kinds of issues with the minority groups i don't want to get no don't say that no
Carter
17:50
can't talk about this is
Zain
17:50
is a safe space go
Zain
17:51
go ahead no it's not it's not it's
Carter
17:52
it's It's not a safe
Zain
17:54
It's not a safe space. It's not a safe space. Why are you so... Which... Okay, don't tell me the issues. Tell me the groups.
Carter
18:03
there was a lot
Carter
18:03
lot of conflict. Don't
Zain
18:04
Don't tell me the issues. Just tell
Zain
18:04
tell me the groups, and I'll guess the issues.
Corey
18:07
Just go ahead. That's amazing. Okay.
Zain
18:08
Why are you so uncomfortable? You're clenching up. It's just Carter and I just having a chat about our people. Well... Speaking of the weeds, Carter works in the Northeast Weeds. He knows. I know it. We know. Okay. Oh,
Carter
18:20
Oh, I know it. Yeah.
Carter
18:21
What do you know about who?
Carter
18:23
Well, I know you're not a real Muslim. I'll tell you that. Oh,
Corey
18:25
Oh, my gosh. Okay.
Carter
18:33
You're in a strong robot
Corey
18:34
robot effect coming from me.
Corey
18:42
right. Today's the day, guys. I'd like to apologize for the Ismaili community, to the Ismaili community. No, I meant Zane
Carter
18:48
Zane himself. Just Zane. Oh,
Carter
18:50
Zane. Yeah, I wasn't about the Ismaili community. All right. Oh,
Corey
18:51
Oh, God. Yeah, no. No, he would never do that. Oh, and the
Carter
18:53
the way I interpret
Corey
18:54
that is that that actually makes me the... Yeah,
Carter
18:56
you're the one who heard the racism.
Zain
18:59
Okay. Yeah, no, going after the smiling community would be political suicide, Carter.
Carter
19:03
Yeah, I would never do that. That's
Zain
19:05
That's true. Yeah, no, no, no. And never mention suicide with my people. Come on. Carter, now listen, let
Zain
19:11
let me tell you something.
Zain
19:15
disagree with both of you a bit. I think Trudeau was clear on message. But I am curious about picking up on this aspect of, did he need to address Americans? And if so, and even if you disagree, did what he did in that moment punch through? And was that enough in terms of a tactic to reach the American audience? is. Because I will tell you, while we were having this wall-to-wall coverage on CBC and having all of our networks go live to this, including CTV News Channel and CBC and having us glued, CNN was running a Kobe Bryant documentary from the archives. MSNBC was not covering this wall-to-wall. Even this morning on the Sunday news programs, Christopher Freeland appeared on one of them, and tariffs was item number three or four behind the helicopter and FBI agents being smoked out by Trump. So this is, as an issue set, not necessarily registering with America. And I'm adding that as a bit of context to go back to the question, which is, did Trudeau start doing enough to start punching through on it? Corey, I'm curious to hear your, A, does he need to reach Americans? And B, what does he need to do? And is this the start of what he needs to do to punch through?
Corey
20:28
know, I think we have to be realistic as Canadians about how much americans are going to care about this and the answer is not nearly as much as we care about it and there's a lot of crazy shit going on like yes it might have been the third or fourth story on a lot of newscasts let's set aside running a kobe documentary i can't explain that that's weird but when you're talking about running through the other shit that's going on in the united states from elon musk taking over treasury's payroll systems to yeah i i mean to the fbi eye looking like they're standing up against these mass fires it might legitimately be only the fourth most important story to americans right now in the united states yeah
Carter
21:05
yeah sure they keep losing planes like yeah well that
Corey
21:10
on everything but like but all to say it's never going to be that we're number one story in this particular matter like you remember the joke in the simpsons in like 1990 where elise is calling a line and uh she's He's listening to, you know, the Corey hotline about, because that's the name of, because it's a great name for a great celebrity, right? Corey. And he's reading the newspaper and the joke is supposed to be how boring it is. He's like, oh, Canada stalls on trade pact. Like that's, that's like the definition of a boring line. That's a punchline. And so Canada and trade is never going to be that interesting to Americans. Now, if you're Justin Trudeau, yeah, you'd love to have the clips, I'm sure. At
Zain
21:51
At the same time, this is not a Canada story that he's trying to make. it's not like whoa me it's like fuck you're fucked like that's the story he's trying to
Corey
21:58
is he trying to tell that story to americans or is he trying to tell it to us are you trying to tell it to us i think
Carter
22:04
to tell the intended audience yeah
Zain
22:06
me through this what do you think he was doing then last night well
Corey
22:08
well let me talk about like sure i'm sure the clips would be great i'm sure you'd be happy that there's clips and there's conversation about that in fact if you'd asked me this question right after his speech i'd be like he's trying to get the americans to pay attention to it but you
Corey
22:20
you know on on a reflection i just don't think that's the case i think that especially when you consider the dynamic that's going on in this country right now with one
Corey
22:27
one premier for sure and probably one and a half if you count scott moe as half a person which nobody has ever done before no
Corey
22:34
but uh you know they're saying you you got to negotiate you got to talk to these people like there's there is i think a requirement with a large number of people not a majority not even like a strong minority but there is a requirement with a large number of people that you at least give it a shot like you talk to them like they're an ally you deliver the message as though you might be able to convince them as though they're a rational actor and so that's what he did like he talked to america to show us he's talking to america but it was for us it wasn't for america and
Corey
23:04
and i just to
Zain
23:05
to be clear you think that he did that first part in order to justify the second part which is a retaliatory package no
Corey
23:12
no i think he did the first part because that will be an expectation for some people gotcha but this is really about the retaliatory package he's trying to do two things right and And it's actually a total shame, he is, because if this country was a little more tough and a little more united, he wouldn't have had to deal so much with the first one. But he's trying to keep Team Canada, you know, including the premiers and all of the various people out there who have opinions and share them on one page. And he's trying to respond to the United States of America. And one of them is about building equity to allow him to do stronger things on number two.
Zain
23:46
talk to me about what Trudeau is trying to do and does he need to reach Americans? And if so, how well is he doing?
Carter
23:51
I absolutely don't think he needs to reach Americans. I don't think Americans are going to hear anything until they feel something. And
Carter
23:57
And the feeling something is going to happen very, very quickly. A 10% tariff on oil is going to be, there's going to be some immediate impacts on the market. And if we start seeing the auto manufacturers shutting down within a week, which is what they're projecting right now, that's going to have a cascade effect that we'll see tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of Americans losing their jobs. So I would say, um, you,
Carter
24:25
you, you don't have to make a point. You don't have to make it to that, to that end. It's just, um, you know, instead it's just, you,
Carter
24:34
you, you just, all you need to do is make sure that your people know that
Carter
24:40
that at some point the Americans are going to know. And that's what the, I'm talking to America right now section was it was there don't worry they're gonna fuck they're gonna find out they fucked around and now they're gonna find out cory
Corey
24:53
what do you think i mean do you know many people who speak french when they're speaking
Carter
24:57
speaking to americans yeah
Corey
24:59
yeah it's just like it's it was for us and well there uh certainly is some value in u.s markets of bringing those clips forward it's it wasn't for them it was for us it was talking to canadians and trying to set the right tone and the right resolve and to say I've done the reasonable things, and now we're going to have to stiffen things up. And in many ways, we
Corey
25:19
we are the frogs in water, right? If the government needs to go very far, if
Corey
25:23
if the government needs to do the very difficult things, it needs to show to Canadians that it's taken the steps along the way that have excluded other options. And this is one of them.
Zain
25:33
Okay, let's talk about, let's do this as a set, and then you guys can split these folks apart as you need to, to talk about them. them. Smith, Moe, Polyev, give
Zain
25:43
give me your analysis on where they find themselves right now. Are they conveniently on an island with each other, or is one of them or two of them more on a mainland with the rest of Team Canada? How do you kind of assess their positioning and current position, either how they're trying to position themselves or by result of where everyone else has gone, where they find themselves? So I'm going to kind of put them together. Maybe you want to tease them apart. Corey, can I start with you on this?
Corey
26:11
mean, you can. I think they have to be teased apart. I think Pierre Polyev is in a very different situation from Daniel Smith. Scott Moe is maybe a little bit in the middle, but I'd put him more on Smith Island. And I'd say Polyev is on a jet ski going by it saying, oh, fuck, I hope they don't see me. I hope they don't wave me down. Because he's in a lot of trouble on this particular one. He's in a box. And you're starting to see him realize that this is not going to be the carbon tax election that was on his wishboard as a child yes
Zain
26:42
yes yes and canada first
Corey
26:44
that last week and i think it's extremely clear this week and extremely clear this yeah yeah yeah um
Corey
26:49
um but if he's moving towards more of a canada first i'm going to fight for canada yeah i wouldn't mind talking a bit about that canada first because i actually think it's a bit of a clunker for a few reasons some obvious um well
Corey
27:00
well that's really tough when you've got danielle smith and scott moe saying basically now canada maybe right and danielle smith almost said that exactly she's like i'm on team canada if team canada does what i want them to do i'm not even really paraphrasing and no right
Zain
27:18
right beginning and beginning certain statements with donald trump is right to mention x y and z and go after a b and c and then to your point add in that line of and canada could be right if we do a b and c and x y and z yeah
Corey
27:30
yeah well Well, and I don't want to throw like everything on the table here, but I'll just say, Daniel Smith, I think increasingly this position doesn't look wise. I think Lisa Young wrote a pretty good article about that today. And I just, Daniel Smith wrote in the National Post today about how, oh, they're an ally. I'm going to talk to them like they're an ally. This was clearly written before yesterday, I'm assuming, or certainly before Donald Trump started tweeting in response this morning about how really this is all a pretext and he wants us to be the 51st state. The disconnect between reality and the justification Smith is using right now is becoming so stark that even very diehard conservatives are having trouble with it. And so can
Corey
28:15
she ride that bull? I don't know, that's an interesting question, but she's in a really weird place right now. I think she's in the weirdest place of everybody. Polyev's in probably the most damaging place of everybody, but Smith's in the weirdest one.
Zain
28:28
Carter, are they all on the same island together? I don't posit that to you, but it's a starting point for me. Or are you teasing it apart like Corey has here?
Carter
28:37
No, I mean, Pierre Polyev has seen very clearly that he has to bring forward different messaging than Danielle Smith. I mean, he's gone right away to Canada first. He's he's trying to put on his Captain Canada cloak and, you know, fly away or maybe it's a cape. But he's he's trying to to to show that he's part of the team while showing that he's not part of Justin Trudeau's team, which, frankly, I think I don't begrudge him that positioning. I think that that's the position that that he should have. He's the opposition leader, not the guy that he's not the deputy prime minister. and he should be in a position where he
Carter
29:12
he can critique from outside but i'd like to see him doing and
Carter
29:17
and i think that he's to to to a degree he's doing this he's starting to become more like a government in waiting um and this really fast pivot away from his carbon tax um you know it was going to be a carbon tax election two weeks ago three weeks ago maybe if we were if we're not as kind um and now it's not and it's just gone that opportunity has ended um he's moved pretty fast to canada first i think it's a terrible move i think that the messaging and the branding is entirely wrong after your your great cousin to the united states to the south is just uh you know done america first and it's turning into a fucking gong show for us but that's a different issue i think the peers on his own uh i'm going to steal cory's metaphor and go with the jet ski well danielle smith instead of being on an island i've put her on a on a slowly sinking sailboat uh that has lost the winds and is just sitting out there in the middle of the of the lake and no one no one not even scott moe wants to go rescue her scott moe was on the sailboat earlier uh but he somehow managed to just kind of disappear
Carter
30:28
disappear he's not really there he's not not really not there but he's he's managed to disappear from the zeitgeist because daniel smith has taken most of the heat cory
Zain
30:38
cory talk to me about this we'll talk about the canada first brand in a second keeping
Zain
30:44
keeping with our stream of analysis i am curious to get your take if you see any daylight between trudeau carney and freeland and
Zain
30:52
and where do you see that daylight if anywhere and and should there be any, and how do two of those three people who are trying to become the next prime minister separate themselves from the guy who is prime minister, when that seems to be the fundamental task of the leadership, but may not necessarily be the fundamental task for the country in the moment? I
Zain
31:11
I don't know if I'm explaining that correctly. So I'm
Corey
31:13
I'm kind of curious
Zain
31:13
curious if how you're looking at the dynamic between the three of them, and how they need to play this.
Corey
31:21
Well, it's interesting, because in some ways, it feels like they've consciously taken the dynamic off the table. All of the leadership candidates signing that statement, effectively saying, yeah, we're with the prime minister. I'm paraphrasing deeply, right? But it's effectively said, we're going to let the federal government do the analysis. And by the way, a bit of an aside here, that makes perfect sense. One of the things that I think people fail to appreciate is just how much more you know when you're in government than when you're out of government. And yeah, you can read all of the newspaper articles you want. You don't have a department of trade who's is going to tell you exactly the consequences of each of these choices for both yourself and your and your allies slash not allies down south you don't have the knowledge of what the conversations have been with great britain with germany with any of your other potential partners and so you've got to sort of let the prime minister cook right you got to let him do his thing this is a time where you've really got to rely on the analysis that the federal government is doing doesn't
Corey
32:22
doesn't mean they're always going to be right it just means everything else being equal they're more likely to be right than you because they just know so much more and this is a very complex very information dependent exercise we now find ourselves in so i think that's one thing and i and i think that the liberal leadership candidates particularly carney and freeland understand that freeland
Corey
32:42
freeland has suggested going a little bit further on you know tesla or elon musk i can't remember exactly what she was proposing there yeah
Corey
32:50
and so i guess you could say there's a little bit of daylight there but it's not strong and also at the technical briefing today the federal government basically hinted that that might be coming anyways right so in some ways it might just be a
Corey
33:03
a little ahead not so much as different in
Zain
33:06
in carter in some strange way these campaigns are directly and indirectly lobbying the federal government um and with with you know certain measures that they want right talking about dollar for dollar or Elon Musk, et cetera. But in the moment, is there a political penalty to be played by agreeing with the prime minister?
Carter
33:25
No. Okay. This is probably the, I mean,
Carter
33:30
if we accept the idea that this is an economic
Carter
33:33
and I think that Canadians in general have accepted the idea that this is an economic war, a war was declared upon us and we are responding in kind. it is uh and the reason i say that is that i i evidenced the the booing of the in calgary in calgary at the hockey game there was a booing of the of the american national anthem for our listeners
Zain
33:53
listeners who may not be from alberta why do you emphasize in calgary a few times i actually am not sure why you do myself yeah
Carter
34:00
because calgary is number one the most american city in canada we have the most americans who actually live here number two our oil and gas industry is uh paramount and the protection of the oil and gas industry i think would be deemed to be super important and we got a little carve out there so we got a little bit of what we wanted and yet we still said fuck you trump uh by booing the national anthem i
Carter
34:28
can't remember where i was going before no
Zain
34:30
no you're saying in calgary in calgary the booing of the national anthem you're effectively going down that
Zain
34:34
that path and i interrupted yeah
Carter
34:34
yeah i think that i think it i think that the booing of the the national anthem i think that people understand that they're in a economic war and uh this is uh this is time for people to come together um and people expect pierre polyev to be together they expect elizabeth may to be together they would expect jagmeet singh to be together but no
Carter
34:55
no one's seen him so it's really irrelevant um you know so when elizabeth may you know like no No, I'm not going to go down there. But bottom line, these people have made, they're
Carter
35:06
they're jumping in on a war, on war footing. And I wouldn't even be surprised to see Justin
Carter
35:15
Justin Trudeau take steps to bring, to bring Kaliyev in even closer.
Zain
35:21
So this is, I really am intrigued by that.
Zain
35:24
Corey, can we go back to the federal scene between the two leaders for a second? and one who's going to be leaving in five, six weeks, and the other one who is trying to become prime minister and was almost guaranteed the job a year ago by the Canadian public with steady polls. If you're Poliev right now, are you worried that you're not necessarily getting the spotlight as you have for the last two years on this issue? Or can you wait this out? And as long as you're right on the overall notion canada
Zain
35:53
canada first inflation etc you still are you're fine you're still okay or are you are you wanting every single day that the pm goes up or escalates or this conversation happens to get into the news and desperately be there on a day-to-day basis how are you thinking about this if you're him if i'm
Corey
36:10
polyev i'm fucking terrified that i'm about to blow a 25 point lead because the ground has shifted so fundamentally and the decisions that i made in the lead up terrified like terrified the
Corey
36:23
decisions i made in the lead up have put me in a box it's i'm in a box of my own making here and it is a desperately bad situation to be in now don't
Corey
36:33
don't misunderstand me he's still leading in kind of the pole of poles it's looking fine for him you know instead of 25 points we're now seeing 15 to 20 we'd call that a blowout in any other context but it's hard to ignore the trend line that some of the pollsters are seeing i'm i'm not saying that you even have to love all of the pollsters but even you know wherever the pollsters baseline is when they start seeing movement like that there's it's always two things with polls right there's there's position and there's momentum and the momentum is starting to tell a story that would really really alarm me if i was pierre polyev so i'm trying to get in there all of the time i'm trying trying to show that i'm captain canada we talked about this a couple of months ago even i think this is how you get into a maybe it wasn't that long maybe a month this a bidding war where you're just trying to be more canadian than the next guy you're canadian fuck you i've got three giant flags instead of your four shitty regular flags right and my my lectern has a sign that talks about how much i fucking love this country and you can easily see that starting to take shape and place here but it almost feels like an ill-thought-out panic response and this maybe gets us into this conversation about canada first but yeah let's do it let's do it because
Zain
37:41
because that was good strategy
Corey
37:42
strategy start yeah start us off on it so
Corey
37:45
so two problems with it one is obvious carter's already talked about it america first is the slogan of the guy that we all hate right now you know you've basically taken the slogan of the quote-unquote enemy and you're using that i just don't know if that's a particularly wise idea but
Corey
38:00
but problem two is
Corey
38:02
is probably more fatal if
Corey
38:04
if if it becomes all about out can't who's who who's putting canada first it
Corey
38:09
it it actually they are not the answer to that question if you have like we talk about ballot questions a lot if your ballot question becomes who will put canada first the thing you've put on your fucking lectern you're not the answer to that question you are not the answer to that question there are so many pictures that will be able to be trotted out of your advisors in mega caps you talking about how broken canada is you talking talking about how america is a example of what we need to do you will fucking lose and so i can't understand why they didn't go with something that was more like i appreciate this particular phrasing is taken but canada strong right like i'm going to make canada strong we're going to win this by being strong and i can make a strong and the liberals have made us weak that more explicitly makes sense to me for the conservatives but canada first my
Corey
38:56
my dude nobody thinks you're the guy you go go to when you need to put Canada first. For the Liberals, for all of their faults, all of their foibles, that's their brand. You know, that's a brand they've built over decades, if not centuries at this point, or like century plus. It's a real challenge that he's got. I don't know why he's putting himself in that position.
Zain
39:15
I mean, Carter, Corey does make a good point here. And especially when we talk about the Liberals positioning as the natural governing party of Canada, a lot of that is historically around wrapping themselves in the flag. I mean, we've all had a strange... The
Corey
39:28
The flag they invented. Correct, correct.
Zain
39:30
correct. I was going to say, we've all had a couple of stranger relationships with the flag, pandemic and all those other things, people rejecting the flag, so to speak. But if this becomes a, if the flag is the ballot box question, putting it simply,
Zain
39:43
Corey's assessment here might be right. What do you think about Canada First and what do you think would make it better? I like your two suggestions, Corey. I want to give Carter the same shot.
Carter
39:52
Well, I mean, let's just start off by going through a few synonyms, right? Canada powerful, Canada muscular, Canada brawny, Canada well-built, Canada powerfully built, Canada strapping, Canada sturdy, Canada hefty, Canada
Carter
40:08
Canada burly. Is this Canada GPT right here? Canada robust. No, it's a thesaurus. No, it's Canada
Zain
40:19
thesaurus. Let's make sure we own that, Corey. Let's make sure we own Canada GPT.
Zain
40:23
our own Canadian version of
Corey
40:24
of GPT. It's almost certainly taken, but okay.
Carter
40:26
Anyways, you know, the point
Carter
40:29
point of the exercise, I mean, you're stealing your slogan anyways. You may as well steal someone else's. Like, you know, and I'm not sure I would go with Canada Strong. I think there's something, there's probably something there. There's probably something around there. But being the captain of Team Canada is probably the right thing. I would, you know, I haven't seen his response. have we seen his response to justin trudeau last night like i've not seen uh him calling like i would come out calling for stronger measures um stronger measures that are that go after trump and go after elon musk so
Carter
41:07
so that's what i would like to see more action from
Zain
41:10
from a strategic perspective you want them to punch harder punch high
Corey
41:13
high okay cory okay build it onto this i 100 agree but i think this is exactly my concern with canada first for the conservatives you're not acting in a way that suggests that that is actually your dictating principle right like you
Corey
41:26
you are a little you mean authentically
Zain
41:29
you're not yeah right right look
Corey
41:30
look i mean the biggest time you're going to get into problems in politics is when what you're doing and what you're saying are so misaligned right like that just creates a tension that you're going to have to address at some point in some way shape or form as much as we can become cynics and be like oh it's just words it's just words you know their actions are so different than their words the reality is we pick words that people believe and a lot of the belief comes from actions we can point to proof points we say right and if you if you're saying i'm canada first but i won't fucking say a word about danielle smith going down to mar-a-lago people are going to call you on that if you say i'm canada first but you don't want to call out extremists because you know that your donor base has an awful lot of extremists in it people are going to call you out on it he or or
Zain
42:13
or Or if you've been spending the last three years telling people how broken Canada is inherently,
Zain
42:18
inherently, of course, due to Justin Trudeau, but, you know, that shit has a blast radius beyond your control in some ways. A box of his own making is how I
Corey
42:28
And I stand by it. I mean, I think that one of the things that seemed like a pretty good strategy for a few years, you're starting to see the limitations at this moment. and the comment was made on the strategist discord and it was so good and i think it was matt who made it and if it wasn't well matt congratulations you're being credited with this yeah
Zain
42:45
yeah the person who did make it if it wasn't matt you're never getting credit even
Corey
42:48
even when we change your name to matt you know we probably have to then you'll get the credit for this here right
Corey
42:55
when you have spent all of these years talking about how broken and bad canada is
Corey
43:03
it's hard to make the pivot to canada is great and and it was you know what i don't think it was matt now but
Corey
43:09
but it was uh the idea is if you if
Corey
43:12
if you're saying canada's broken that can only take you so far it's like this negative shitty emotion and the minute trudeau's gone you're in a little bit of trouble how do you then pivot to canada's awesome canada's the best the difference between uh you know this idea of canada being broken and make america great again is
Corey
43:27
is a difference of emphasis, right? Like, it's a difference of the greatness. Ambition and emphasis. Exactly, versus the challenges. And he chose to go with the challenges, and here we are.
Zain
43:38
He chose to go with leader of the opposition. He did. Which he chose
Corey
43:42
chose to go with leader of the opposition. One of Paul Welles' rules, right? The person who additions for the job of leader of the opposition gets it.
Zain
43:49
Carter, let's talk a bit about strategy beyond Pierre Polyev. And I like where we're going here, But I do want to spend a fair chunk of time on what
Zain
43:58
what do our leaders want and need the country to feel?
Zain
44:05
And is just simply more patriotic, more Canada, more feels in that regard enough as part of our immune system that we need our domestic sort of public to feel? And then stemming from there, what sort of campaigns or tactics do we need to run? So, for example, a few things I want to throw out on the table. Do any of our provincial governments or our federal government need to take out a massive, you know, wrap yourself in the flag ad campaign? Do we need to take out specific tactical campaigns as it relates to products, services, common citizenship, civil society, helping one another, etc.? Do we need to go? Where do we need to go here, right? And I think we directionally and notionally know, but I'd like to spend a few more minutes strategically talking about what our leaders need the Canadian public to feel. Can you start us off on this and then I'll go to Corey?
Carter
44:56
Yeah, I think that there's a couple of things. The two examples that I think of right off the top are kind of like a mix of this. I'd like the Molson Canadian, I am Canadian ad.
Carter
45:07
That is what we need to feel is, you know, I am Canadian. I am Joe and I am Canadian. Canadian, you know, that ad needs to come, needs
Carter
45:16
needs to be part of the feeling. And then the other part of the feeling is when we all just intuitively and instinctively went out on our front door, on our front step and banged our pots and pans for the frontline workers who are helping us through COVID. Both of those are the feelings that we need to be feeling right now, because we have to wrap ourselves in the flag. We have to understand that we as a collective are under attack we need to understand that we are part of that and we are the defense to it we are we're going to feel the the uh we are we are the their enemy at this point and then we also have to have this collective sense of it's going to be tough but we're going to get through it together because i i think that what we're not quite understanding yet is
Carter
46:05
how much this is going to hurt right it It will hurt Canadians. It will hurt Albertans. It will hurt Calgarians. Wherever you live, whatever you do, your life's about to get harder in the same way that your life got harder during COVID. And we were all in it together until we weren't.
Carter
46:27
And the interesting thing that I think is fascinating is that the federal election is coming up in a timeline where
Carter
46:35
we're all probably still going to be together before
Carter
46:37
before we start to break apart. And
Carter
46:39
And that's a very interesting scenario.
Zain
46:45
Corey, I'm going to get you to answer this question, but I wanted to clarify one thing with Stephen, and I really appreciate your answer, Carter.
Zain
46:52
You said enemy. Was that deliberate to To have our leaders ensure that, to the public, that the United States is our enemy? No,
Carter
47:04
I said we are their enemy.
Carter
47:07
That is a very different phrasing and a very different
Zain
47:10
different position structure. Okay, excellent.
Zain
47:11
excellent. Glad I clarified. Right. How about the other way around? What do they need Canadians to feel about Americans, right? How should they view them as the opposition, right? Should they view them as simply as temporary opposition? Should it be charged at Trump? How do we process? Give me the guardrails, give me the tracks in terms of how I, as a Joe Public, sitting right here, need to think about this and feel about this, Carter.
Carter
47:39
well i think that we want to feel betrayed by our best friend right
Carter
47:42
right we want to in some fashion feel like our best friend betrayed us and and we'd still like to be friends with them but
Carter
47:49
but we can't be friends as long as they continue to betray us if they stop betraying us and they apologize then we can be best friends again because that's what best friends do we don't hold a sort of thing
Carter
48:00
we make up right
Carter
48:01
right you know cory and i after all these years back together again again right almost friends
Zain
48:07
friends i was gonna say after all those
Carter
48:08
those almost friends close you
Carter
48:10
you know still the betrayal of
Carter
48:12
of not being invited to his wedding still stings but i'm gonna get through it i had a wedding i
Carter
48:18
i eloped yeah yeah i wasn't invited were you invited zane no
Zain
48:22
no i sat right next to him and i found out he got married when he returned on the monday you're welcome yeah i
Carter
48:28
was upset i was upset i'm still i was i
Zain
48:30
i was not upset i still thought his name didn't have any in it so i barely knew him then that's
Zain
48:36
that's right if you're going i also thought the CEO of our company was a jewish woman and he turned out to be an indian man so
Zain
48:41
yeah okay great goldie hinder look him up yeah very proud very indeed good dude uh cory keep going uh carter keep going on this no i'm
Carter
48:50
i'm done that's all i have okay i think it's really important though that we do not position ourselves that we are the enemies with the united states right now they have made us their enemy me yeah
Zain
49:00
cory what do we need the canadian what do our leaders need the canadian public to feel
Corey
49:06
disappointment and betrayal are the things that canadians are feeling right now i don't know that we need them to feel that but that's got to be channeled into resolve so steven is 100 right that the pain hasn't happened yet it's before every fight before every war trade or otherwise bluster is high people say you know what i'm gonna win and fuck you and and you're going to get hurt, and I'm not going to get hurt. Well, the experience of every war, trade or otherwise, is both sides get hurt. And that hurt sucks. And I disagree that we're not going to hold a grudge on this. I actually think that one of the things that's likely to come out of this is a trepidation towards the United States going forward. And this is probably a time where a party could have a serious conversation about what it means to be economically sovereign, militarily sovereign, culturally sovereign. And those lead, again, to some answers that maybe take you away from the conservatives on two out of those three and one of those three the conservatives could very much take on like military sovereignty i mean so it's going to be interesting to see and and the answer is really quite dependent on who you are and we
Corey
50:12
we i mean here we are at minute 50 we haven't mentioned that doug
Corey
50:16
doug ford called an election because he thought well this is a great fucking opportunity you know i could win something on this and um there's going going to be different types of opportunism that occurs right here too and so what
Corey
50:30
what do they want them to feel what are your objectives in the short term for doug ford they want them to feel we
Corey
50:35
we need a fighter like we fucking need somebody who's going to stand up for this he's gone with protect ontario
Zain
50:40
ontario as is that's
Corey
50:41
that's right yeah you know yeah if you're um if you're just a trudeau that's not what you want them to feel you don't want them to feel we need a fighter you want them to feel we need to double down on being canadian to get this done like we gotta have resolve about who we are so different goals different objectives different ambitions tactics
Zain
51:00
tactics talk to me about some tactics that let's just narrow in on the federal government or provincial leaders ad campaigns other things like what how would you be thinking about this as we escalate on the actual measures how would you be thinking about the vibes the feelings how you bring the public alongside side who wants to go first carter well carter
Carter
51:19
carter you just yawned
Zain
51:19
yawned so do you want to go first no
Carter
51:21
no i'll go first because it's it's 9 25 and it's almost been yeah but i think that um i think that we want an ad campaign i think that we want to see that the federal government is acting and you know i i right now the the communications are uh you know the the list of foods and or the the list of of goods that are being tech terror you know facing tariffs on yes on tuesday
Carter
51:45
tuesday was circulated i don't know if you guys tried to read that but your eyes go crossed i did uh you
Carter
51:51
you know that's not a communications campaign that's information and communications is very very different than just simply disseminating information and with that lob i'll throw it over to my friend cory hogan yeah
Corey
52:03
yeah well first off what the fuck is this is a question that Canadians are still grappling with some more than others. Kind of brings us back to where you started us, Zane, right? But if people think, oh, this is just a legitimate concern of Americans and we'll just resolve this and this is just a regular trade war and, you know, regular trade wars require us to use the regular trade war book, it's
Corey
52:26
it's going to lead you to one course of actions. If it's not that, it leads you to a different course of action. And so I think that if I'm the federal government i'm spending a fair bit of fair
Corey
52:36
fair bit of money making sure that we have a consensus in the country as to what this is and i do think with these things where people are starting in different places you have to give them a way to artfully get to your position without backing down or eating a bunch of shit so for sure that means talking about alberta's premier daniel smith specifically and how you get her more on team canada's bus more fully and almost get her her to feel like well i've been betrayed by donald trump you know i was willing to give it a shot that was a reasonable thing to do have the prime minister say that was a reasonable thing danielle but here we are right uh but it's not just her it's just in general trying to move people away from the notion that this is normal some of that will occur with time if things play if steps escalate right like we're we're recording this on a sunday night donald trump and justin trudeau are talking tomorrow morning that's all
Zain
53:29
all here yeah donald
Corey
53:29
donald trump has taken a lot of flack for this and his protests are pretty lame online right now he might do what he did with columbia which is surrender and then declare victory right so we'll see and
Zain
53:40
and he could at
Corey
53:41
at any point it's such
Zain
53:41
such a manufactured especially when you go back to order like
Corey
53:44
like how do you solve a fake problem i don't know just declare it solved it like it's it's not hard right but like let's just his most
Zain
53:51
most recent thing is he's posting new york post articles with toby looking from shopify being like look even this This guy
Zain
53:58
mean, it's just like, it's pretty lame.
Corey
53:59
lame. Pretty lame validators. It's lame validators. It's a great point. So, you know, if you can get them, though, to understand what this is and get to that next playbook, I'll
Corey
54:10
I'll tell you, the playbook is the war playbook. And again, we're going to use war in this broad term to include trade wars here, right? But it's propaganda
Corey
54:19
propaganda campaigns in the country saying, look at the enemy and be aware of them, right? Right. It's buy bonds, buy Canadian. It's nationalizing, you know, the National Post and Post Media and saying, OK, we can't have foreign interference in our conversations around here. By the way, I think an idea that is not crazy is to nationalize the National Post and then give the shares to the people who work for the National Post or Post Media, I mean, in Canada and basically say, we'll get the money from you when you sell your shares. right like we can't have a foreign hedge fund owning all of our daily newspapers at a moment like this when that nation anyways i don't want to detour on that but the point is that's
Carter
55:00
that's a great idea that's
Corey
55:01
that's almost like a lend lease plan that you bring forward so look at what we did in world war two look at what we did in korea look at what we do when times get tough and those things generally really go to getting the team on side making
Corey
55:15
sacrifice your moral duty and then going from there hanging together and doing the hard things carter
Zain
55:22
carter we're going to move it on to our over under our lightning round steven carter we do this for you because we we like to give you enough time to wind down before bed i
Carter
55:30
i do enjoy we
Zain
55:31
don't want you all riled up yeah we don't want you to just go straight from microphone to sack uh
Zain
55:36
uh and just roll over right
Carter
55:38
right it had to be a better phrasing
Carter
55:39
to sack was not exactly it immediately made
Corey
55:43
made me think of Dominic LeBlanc hand
Carter
55:45
hand in his pocket I thought of Alanis Morissette Carter,
Zain
55:50
Carter, Corey already gave me his answer to this or he may not have, I'll give him another shake at it, one campaign or one strategy, a campaign run by a government, a third party a citizens group a labor labor organization that you would pitch to get
Zain
56:12
get started right now? In the face of this broader threat, the domestic sort of vibes and currents, what would you be thinking of? And it could be housed anywhere. I'll give you like this wide berth in terms of what it is and where it could go. One campaign that Stephen Carter would want to put on the table and see active right now, active and alive right now. Well,
Carter
56:32
Well, it's funny. I think that we're going to see a lot of campaigns become active because all of a sudden we are going to be we are we are energized for politics we are energized for the for these words i would love to have a no australian minds on the on the eastern slopes like these these no multinationals no external companies mining our our you know our coal out of out of our pristine environment um it doesn't need to be uh by local chickens right like it doesn't need to be you know buy local meats it doesn't need to be buy within 100 miles everything is going to be on the table because every everybody has changed the way that they're interacting on this stuff they're not just going to be interacting on you know isn't this interesting this this situation that has happened um with the trade war this is everything this is the hockey game is getting protested so if the hockey game is being protested find a unique and interesting way to do your campaign whatever the whatever it is and in a perfect world partner up find two or three other organizations because this is the time to make your organization have more breath and more strength than it normally would Corey
Corey
57:57
give me 40 million a month and i will make his life a living hell in the united states we just we should run the most excruciating targeted lincoln every single
Corey
58:09
better than lincoln here's the reality there is a real foundational reason their prices are going to go up as a result of donald trump's actions that's a real thing that
Corey
58:19
that you could make them think their prices are going up because of donald trump's actions without a real thing but you actually have a real fucking thing you could have signs up you could have billboards outside a grocery store saying on average your trip to this grocery store is going to cost x number of dollars more because donald trump decided to pick a fight with canada or whatever like you know you focus group it you identify those target audiences you make the pain real in the areas where it hurts them the most
Corey
58:44
i think that given the consequences to our economy spend a lot of money well advertising in the united states to just make it not worth the time for them like just to hurt them like crazy fuck them up on everything else they want to do in their project 2025 thing make them think good for the love of god we're going to be running a u.s presidential style campaign to attack ads against us from now until the end of time if we don't just relent on these stupid fucking canadian tariffs can i
Carter
59:13
your company when we get that contract i
Corey
59:15
i mean you can addition for a job maybe Maybe.
Zain
59:18
Listen, I got three more over-under questions, but I'm not going
Zain
59:22
actually go to them because I actually want to pick up on what Corey said and end on here.
Corey
59:25
You also looking for a job? Is that what's going on? No,
Zain
59:27
No, I'm not. Just me? Okay.
Zain
59:29
I don't like to work. If this show is any proof point. Hey, listen, Corey,
Zain
59:37
you said something that was quite interesting, which is the American campaign, which I wanted to bring up. I like that a lot. But you also mentioned earlier that the Trump-Trudeau conversations happening tomorrow morning. Yeah.
Zain
59:49
Give me a sense of the terrain from as many areas as you can or want to. Should this trade dispute be resolved by the end of tomorrow? Trump declares victory 25% and 25 and 10 is off the table. 25 on 30 billion and then an extra 155 is off the table from us. And then the haze kind of settles. What's the terrain here? And here's what I'm trying to ask, do the conservatives have the edge again? Is the ballot box question reset? What happens
Zain
1:00:17
happens in this haze? And this is not impossible.
Zain
1:00:23
I'm not betting on it, but it's not impossible that Donald Trump declares victory tomorrow. So let's just end with this hypothetical exercise and give me a sense of where you think the terrain goes if that were to happen tomorrow. And Carter, same question to you to finish this off. So
Corey
1:00:36
So I definitely don't think it's impossible. I think if there's one thing we've learned about donald trump it's that he's he's a caged animal and he reacts to the stimulus that occurs right and one of the things he's getting right now is a lot of abuse from people who normally give him praise like the wall street journal like uh you know well just in general the murdoch properties right are saying what the hell are you doing fox news is running lists of these are the things that are going to get more expensive and having dug for doing
Corey
1:01:02
a morning and an
Corey
1:01:03
evening hit with them absolutely and so i think i really wouldn't discount this possibility that um and you can easily see how it happens right you get on a call if you're the prime minister you're saying well fuck i'm not going to like sewer our entire economy just to make him eat a bunch of shit so i say yes donald we'll put another 200 million dollars into uh you know we're going to do better at hitting our nato commitments because we should fucking do that anyways right not the five percent and trump's come up with but the three percent so we're going to invest 10
Corey
1:01:33
10 billion dollars more in our military right and then donald trump says yeah
Corey
1:01:37
yeah i talked to the canadian prime minister what a weakling
Zain
1:01:41
weakling i'm so sad yeah
Corey
1:01:42
yeah he's so sad tragic but he agreed that he'd do what's necessary to protect it america first we won you know and then declare victory and he can point to this thing and then we all move on with our lives but it
Corey
1:01:53
it is an open question to me if that resets things because Because I don't believe in that scenario, he fully takes tariffs off the table. That
Corey
1:02:00
That would be too much of a climb down for him. So I think he says, but I still got this loaded gun on the table, basically. And I think Canadians have learned something here, right? And it's not to trust America. And it has fundamentally changed the environment, regardless of what happens next. Is it enough to sustain to an election in six months? Hell no. But to Stephen's point, the timing of this potential election is really interesting. We could be in an election.
Corey
1:02:29
I mean, we could be in an election sooner than that, right? We could get to next week when $125,000 is due from each of the liberal leadership candidates. And everyone says, you know what, I'm out. Mark, you can have this. mark it's yours yeah i don't have 125 i could easily see that which means he gets sworn in which means the governor general probably says okay get parliament back i'm not going to let you be prime minister for a month and a half without you know proving that you can have the confidence of the house and we're in an election like that and if we're in an election underneath the cloud of everything that just happened i don't think there's time for it to pivot back october election we're talking about different things for sure april
Corey
1:03:06
april election i don't know
Corey
1:03:09
Carter, I'm going to
Carter
1:03:10
to give you a shake
Carter
1:03:11
I want you to think back to the last time you wet your pants.
Carter
1:03:16
you're going to remember that for quite a while,
Carter
1:03:19
right? You remembered it not just in the moment, not just when you were taking off your pants, not just as you were having a shower. What is this, last week? I don't want to undercut
Corey
1:03:28
undercut your metaphor, but I cannot tell you when the last time I wet my pants was. Oh, I remember. My mind's like...
Carter
1:03:33
Yeah, no, I'm asking Zane, not you. It's when we
Zain
1:03:36
we finalized the purchase for DisgracedLeaderBrown.com. Oh, great.
Zain
1:03:40
I was like, we got it. And he went and spent
Carter
1:03:43
spent a great day. He was so happy. But you feel it for a while, and you don't let go of that feeling for quite some time.
Carter
1:03:50
Well, Canada just collectively pissed our pants.
Carter
1:03:53
And we're not going to let go of this collective feeling for some time. And I think that the person that really benefits is Mark Carney. I don't think that, you
Carter
1:04:03
know, I think that the liberal leadership is unfolding that way and that the election is going to be held in relatively short order. I don't think those are two secrets. I think that that's actually going to happen. And
Carter
1:04:15
And if those things happen the
Carter
1:04:17
the way that Corey described them,
Carter
1:04:21
all of a sudden Pierre-Paul Lievre is on the back foot. And
Carter
1:04:24
And it's not about where the numbers are. Where
Carter
1:04:27
Where the numbers are is almost irrelevant. irrelevant it's always the slope of the graph how
Carter
1:04:31
how much momentum do you have if you don't if it is a downward slope you're sucking wind it
Carter
1:04:37
it is all over your life can't you you can't turn it around if
Carter
1:04:41
if it is an upward slope your
Carter
1:04:43
your life is everything is easier and
Carter
1:04:45
and right now liberals have an upward slope and the conservatives have a downward slope let's
Zain
1:04:50
let's end on this i said i was going to end on that but but let's end on this.
Zain
1:04:53
Overrated, underrated, Corey, 400,000 liberal registrants now revealed as being the voter base for this election in March. Overrated
Corey
1:05:04
I'm going to go with overrated.
Corey
1:05:06
That's a lot of people. I don't mean that that's overrated, if there were actually 400,000. But I think that now the liberals have a challenge in that the
Corey
1:05:13
the number of voters will almost certainly not be 400,000. Like the barrier to get that first step done is pretty low. I could fill it in for everybody I knew. I
Zain
1:05:21
I would say, yeah,
Corey
1:05:22
yeah, I could fill it in for everybody I know. That's not enough to get to vote, you're going to have to prove that you're eligible to vote, you're going to have to probably scan your ID with your phone or something like that. I don't know what they're actually considering. It's so funny, I was so in on this liberal leadership contest, I was talking to people, I was trying to figure it all out. And then Trump happened, I got pretty distracted. But I do know it will be a two step process where there is more gating. And that 200 400,000 is going to become 200,000 overnight is going to come to like 150 who who actually vote. This is my prediction. And so the liberal challenge now is going to be that that number is coming down. It's actually kind of a good add-on from Carter's last point. It's the momentum. It's the trajectory. If you had said to me, 150,000 people vote in this liberal leadership contest, I'd be like, fuck, really? That's amazing. But now if you're like, it's 400. Actually, it's not going to be 400. It's 200. Actually, it's going to be 150.
Corey
1:06:14
I'm not going to think it's bad, but I'm not going to think it's amazing. And so I think that in
Corey
1:06:18
in that sense, it's overrated. Carter, overrated or underrated?
Carter
1:06:22
I think it's underrated. I think that, first of all, we seem to be forgetting right off the top, this was a very short period of time. And Corey and I have also decided that we have reached an agreement, and henceforth, all leadership shall be this length of time. We're
Corey
1:06:39
of accord. The strategists have decreed it's an official position of the Strategist Media Corporation. This proves all leadership contests should just be like two months long.
Zain
1:06:50
was not consulted but i i can get on board you
Carter
1:06:53
weren't consulted i want you to think about that yeah
Zain
1:06:56
that's the person who ran the most successful leadership race most recently that's fine you
Carter
1:07:00
you know what you know how long was that fucking leadership race i
Zain
1:07:03
i i for according to you it was done in two days yeah
Carter
1:07:08
it took a lot done yeah
Corey
1:07:10
yeah a lot of wasted time in there a lot of fat to cut a
Carter
1:07:12
lot of fat to cut um
Zain
1:07:15
okay i can get on board but carter you're still going going with underrated finishes off on that thought and then i'll wrap us up i
Carter
1:07:20
i think 400,000 people signed up in two weeks that's an amazing thing it's
Carter
1:07:25
i think that 200,000 people could vote 150,000 people could vote it won't matter 400,000 people have their names in a database and the liberals get to play with them yeah
Corey
1:07:37
yeah i mean i thought that there were i didn't think they were going to get more than they had like we've been so conditioned over time to think you need time to register these members but it turns out it's the same no
Corey
1:07:48
no matter how much time you give yourself everybody's so good always boils down to two
Carter
1:07:51
two things the launch and
Carter
1:07:52
and the finish you're right and it
Corey
1:07:53
it had a launch and it had a finish so yeah that's
Zain
1:07:56
that's it it's also follows the basic principle right like the work takes as long as you have to get it done sort of thing and if you give people a long period of time they will slack off for three months if they can um
Corey
1:08:07
um is that what you did on your campaign is
Carter
1:08:09
is that what you
Corey
1:08:09
did no i think that explains some of the transition for the three
Corey
1:08:12
three Three months, yeah. Challenges there, yeah. I
Zain
1:08:14
I don't know what I did for the three months. I have no idea. It's just the time gone. Yeah. I don't gloat about my successes.
Carter
1:08:24
Well, you only have the one.
Corey
1:08:31
Should we wrap it up? I
Zain
1:08:31
I guess that's it. I'm pretty hurt after that. Someone else want to do it?
Zain
1:08:36
Connor, how about you do it? We're going
Carter
1:08:37
going to leave it there. That's it for another episode of The Strategist. episode 1848F with
Carter
1:08:43
with me as always with me
Carter
1:08:46
me as always Zane Belgy, Butthurt as always and Corey Hogan thanks for listening
Zain
1:08:57
we'll see you next time
Carter
1:08:59
oh okay I forgot that part