Zain: This is A Strategist, episode 1848. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Carter, I've actually missed one. This is 1848D.
Zain: Yeah.
Zain: Do you know what the D stands for? The
Carter: the D stands for? The
Carter: The D stands for the one after C.
Zain: Okay. Well, Carter, thank you for bringing that quality energy. Good energy. Did you like
Carter: energy. Did you like that? This quality small d energy. Thank you.
Zain: Yeah, of course. Of course. You walked right into that one, one would say. I
Carter: say. I
Carter: I would.
Carter: I'm a little tired.
Carter: I'm a little tired. Why are you tired? Why are you tired?
Corey: Why
Zain: Why
Corey: Why
Zain: Why are you tired?
Corey: Why are you tired? How are you feeling, buddy? You guys are doing
Zain: buddy? You guys are doing great. You guys are doing great. I can't sleep the night before recording.
Carter: doing great.
Corey: You guys are doing great. I can't sleep the night before recording. Stephen
Zain: Stephen Gilboa is supporting
Corey: Stephen Gilboa is supporting you now.
Zain: What?
Carter: Why
Zain: Why are you losing sleep?
Carter: sleep?
Zain: That's
Carter: That's why I'm losing sleep. Right there. The Gilboa machinery.
Carter: Corey. Corey just opened his pot all over himself.
Corey: pot all over himself.
Corey: Yeah,
Zain: Yeah, I did. Blew his load, which is accurate. accurate uh which is an accurate statement uh
Carter: Yeah, I
Corey: I did.
Carter: did.
Corey: did. Blew
Carter: Blew
Corey: uh that's
Corey: great cory uh you're going blue i don't like this letter d i don't like what this letter d is doing let's let's
Carter: let's let's let's do
Corey: do let's do our announcement we got a special announcement to make big announcement the only reason we're on the main feed for a bit
Zain: for a bit i guess or
Corey: or however long you choose
Zain: or however long you choose
Zain: choose
Corey: choose
Zain: choose however
Corey: however
Corey: however long this takes um well
Zain: takes
Zain: well
Corey: do you want to get us started or
Zain: or
Corey: or are you busy cleaning
Zain: cleaning
Corey: cleaning yourself up there i got i got a real real mess i need a towel that's fine jesus
Carter: that's fine jesus
Carter: jesus no it's the number of times i've said that in the morning
Corey: jesus no it's the
Zain: the
Zain: where you're going here carter i
Zain: i don't like where you're going with this either okay make this announcement there's there's there's people of import waiting for a special strategist announcement well
Corey: where
Carter: where you're going with this
Corey: this either okay make this
Corey: of course well as as all long-time listeners know anytime that there's a liberal leadership race um although to be clear like a a national liberal leadership race we don't want to hear from any alberta liberals or ontario on this particular thing i
Zain: know
Zain: we
Zain: or ontario on this
Corey: don't
Zain: don't
Corey: don't even know what an ontario liberal is maybe they'll find out if they
Zain: is maybe they'll find out if they show up there's
Zain: there's
Corey: there's something
Zain: something uh
Corey: doug
Zain: doug
Corey: doug ford forever am i right guys yeah i
Zain: i
Corey: i
Zain: i mean it was exciting
Corey: it
Carter: it
Corey: it was exciting he
Zain: he
Zain: he was marginally xenophobic to mexicans and that whole green belt thing but sure you do you i
Zain: mean you're bringing back a few things you're reminding me a little bit i'm sorry to be the thing the
Corey: be the thing the most most remember is uh we invite people onto the podcast of course during a liberal leadership a canadian liberal leadership
Zain: canadian liberal leadership yes federal
Corey: federal canadian liberal leadership no australian liberals please we don't we don't want to deal with that
Corey: zane would bring out a bad accent it would become a bit of a hate crime there'd be all sorts of challenges we've got to get past yeah we're not gonna put some shrimp on the body what
Zain: yeah we're not gonna put
Carter: is this what is it shrimp i
Zain: it
Corey: it shrimp
Zain: shrimp i
Zain: i thought it was fish
Carter: fish i thought it was green it was totally fish it's supposed to be fish on the barbie that's me
Zain: fish i thought it was green it
Zain: was totally fish
Zain: that's me anyways i don't i don't know what they say down there just
Carter: just embarrassing i was just there yeah
Zain: yeah were
Carter: were you there were you really
Zain: really
Carter: really yeah well when i went to you you remember when i went to new zealand oh okay no
Zain: yeah
Zain: no don't okay
Carter: don't
Carter: okay don't
Zain: don't yeah do you want to show photos is this a slideshow episode should you show family photos yeah it's not all
Corey: all about you special announcement
Zain: you special announcement so we're not doing the australian liberal leader no we're not
Corey: no we're
Corey: not we
Zain: we could though how are they doing how are the liberals doing in australia carter i think
Carter: doing how are the liberals doing in
Corey: in australia
Corey: think is
Zain: is that what you want to
Corey: is
Carter: is that what you
Corey: you want to
Corey: to go
Zain: go do
Corey: do uh
Zain: uh
Corey: uh
Carter: uh no i did not uh labor's doing just fine liberals are not having the best time
Corey: the best time
Corey: there's the liberal and national party down there right like there's two parties they work in coalition yeah well
Carter: yeah well yeah
Corey: yeah i
Corey: mean you're
Corey: you're the guy from australia you should tell us here do people know that you lived in australia no
Carter: no i
Corey: i think we should talk about that people
Carter: people don't know that i lived in australia well
Corey: people
Zain: people
Corey: people they do now people
Carter: people of australia know that i live there
Carter: that's all that matters yeah
Zain: that matters yeah oh that's interesting yeah that's right you're in the middle of a big announcement oh
Zain: oh that's right what
Zain: was the canadian federal liberal leadership every
Corey: canadian federal liberal
Corey: every
Zain: every time oh that's right thank you every
Corey: oh that's right thank you every time there's a federal canadian liberal leadership we make an offer we invite out to the candidates who've been approved who've gotten through that that first gate you know as long as you're technically a candidate as long as you're registered which by the way today
Zain: registered which by the way today is the deadline so we have got our qualifying committee so we got the qualifying committee that's
Corey: have got our qualifying
Corey: committee that's
Zain: that's
Corey: that's what i call it we call it that just to be clear that's our it's a formal thing it's a we've had it for a while there's every liberal leadership right uh we invite the candidates onto the strategists we we invite them all you know doesn't matter if you're for sure gonna win or you're um not you know we
Zain: that just
Corey: invite you and we offer you an opportunity to uh to join the strategists learn from us really i think
Zain: think i like to think of it as exactly what it is
Corey: think
Carter: think i like to think of it as exactly what it is let
Zain: let me jump in here carter and you could build on this listen the last american election has shown the importance of the manosphere and we are nothing but the manosphere okay we bring that energy every single time and you want to win vote you want to come on this show okay cory we get And I'm just going to estimate here, and I'm going to lowball, 7 million people per episode. Listen, I think 7 million people per episode. OK, we are the we may not be the top, but we are the best political podcast in the country. So so saying no to us, not right
Corey: we bring that energy
Corey: 7 million people
Corey: we are the
Zain: away, reaching out to us, you
Corey: out to us, you know, yeah,
Zain: yeah, would be a huge mistake is what I'd say.
Zain: Carter, is there any caveats to this? Anything that folks any of these these half a dozen? I don't know how many there are. okay qualified committee of candidates should know about showing up on our show we
Zain: really don't have any rules but maybe one i
Carter: mean the prime minister did it one would think now the prime minister did do it and then had to resign you
Zain: minister did it one
Zain: know yeah it's a little awkward for a little awkward relation extremely long tail causation but yes yeah
Carter: know yeah it's a little
Carter: for a little awkward relation extremely
Carter: yeah yeah
Zain: yeah yeah yeah uh so there's nothing for you to add there
Carter: to add
Carter: there good
Zain: good
Zain: good you didn't you didn't want to add like the one condition
Corey: you didn't you didn't want to add like the one condition we have the one condition that Oh, they have to host the show. That's
Carter: condition we
Zain: we have the
Carter: the
Carter: they have to host the show. That's
Corey: right. They have to host the show. They have to take the Zane Belge-Annalise
Carter: right. They have to host the show. They have to take the Zane Belge-Annalise Klingbeil role.
Carter: Let me tell you something about that.
Corey: that. I mean, odds are good neither of them will be available, and it will just be them with me and Stephen. Are you going to bring out your long,
Carter: and Stephen. Are you going to bring out your long, you know, your frustration about having to share the hosting role?
Zain: No, I really don't care. I will make room for it. Because here's the thing. Here's the thing. If all one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, I think there's seven. If all seven of them show up, six could be alternative hosts for you guys after this. What are they going to do? That's true. What are they going to do? What is Frank Bayless going to do? It's not like he's rich or anything. It's not like he's got a ton of money and he can just hang out doing whatever he wants, okay? You're auditioning for a different job. This is your backup gig. That's such a great point. And listen, I also am a firm believer that being able to host this show is the skill set that one will need to become prime minister. Okay? Can you hang? can you improv can you ask extremely long questions can you interject your own opinion without making any of those questions even the listener it's
Corey: room for
Corey: going to do? That's true.
Corey: What is Frank Bayless
Corey: or anything.
Corey: he can just hang
Corey: job.
Corey: That's such a great point. And listen,
Carter: any of those questions even the listener it's
Carter: it's it's a real art the listeners never pick up on your own opinion they don't they don't they never do no
Zain: don't they never do no you're a cypher uh this is a real and sincere offer is it not cory i
Corey: no
Corey: i
Corey: i mean i guess so as sincere as anything we do we've ever been yeah that's
Carter: sincere
Zain: sincere as anything we do we've ever been
Carter: been yeah
Corey: that's true
Carter: that's
Zain: that's true so so people should reach out right carter
Carter: true so
Corey: so
Carter: so so people should reach out right carter yeah
Zain: yeah
Carter: yeah totally they should i mean i'm I'm actually going to pass this on to all the various campaigns I'm a part of. Do we want to give them –
Zain: actually going to pass
Zain: various campaigns I'm a part of. Do
Corey: Do we want to give them – yeah, no kidding. An email? We could give an email address. Do we have an email address? Please.
Zain: –
Carter: email
Zain: email
Carter: email address.
Zain: address. Do
Carter: Do we have an
Zain: an email
Corey: How about media at the strategist.ca? Oh, that's good. Media at the strategist.ca. Do we have to pay extra
Carter: that's good. Media
Carter: strategist.ca. Do we have to pay extra for that? Media
Zain: extra
Zain: that?
Corey: Media at the strategist.ca. Probably, yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, it's – They could email us media at any of the domains
Zain: Probably,
Carter: Probably,
Zain: yeah, yeah, yeah.
Zain: They could email us media at any of the domains we have mentioned on this show. And in fact, bonus points. No,
Corey: bonus points. No, no,
Zain: no, that's not accurate. Bonus points for any candidate who emails media at any of the domains that we have purchased. Because Corey's going to spend all night tonight making
Corey: no, that's not accurate. Bonus points for any candidate who emails media at any
Corey: going to spend all night tonight making
Zain: making sure that all of those email addresses are set up. Yeah.
Corey: all of those email addresses are set up. Yeah. Right, Corey? I mean, I could, but I won't. So, you know, you do you, candidates, but I will definitely not hear from you if you do that. That's fine. so media at carter's monthly
Zain: monthly nut.com is also an acceptable place to send your request to be on this show that gets seven million ish listeners an episode and
Carter: also an
Zain: and is the top and best political podcast in the country carter if they
Carter: and is the top and best political
Carter: country carter if they email media carter's monthly nut then
Carter: then there's their strategist gets to be the uh the strat another strategist on the show don't
Zain: don't make it more What a twist. That's insane. You're now opening up a... Oh, I love it. I'm excited. No, you're the only one that opened it. This is my excited face.
Carter: don't make
Carter: make it more What a twist. That's insane.
Carter: a... Oh, I love it. I'm
Carter: that opened it. This is my excited face.
Zain: Yeah, no kidding. Very nice. Carter, should we move on to our first segment?
Carter: Very nice.
Carter: No, I think we should go on the hosting thing for a while.
Zain: Okay, well, I think we've made our point pretty clear. Did we talk about
Carter: point pretty clear. Did we talk about the hosting thing? The announcement
Zain: hosting thing? The announcement is big. It's not for Australians. It's for every time we have a federal liberal
Carter: have a federal liberal leadership. We've covered all of the details here. You
Zain: leadership. We've covered all of the details here. You come on the show. It's a huge bump. It's historically proven. You just got to host the show. We got
Carter: We got all of that out in just nine minutes. I
Zain: just nine
Corey: nine
Corey: mean, people forget, but Joyce Murray was going to win the liberal leadership in 2012 before Justin
Zain: 2012 before
Carter: before
Zain: before
Carter: before
Zain: before
Corey: Trudeau came on. Justin Trudeau
Zain: came on. Justin Trudeau came on.
Corey: Changed it all.
Zain: Changed it all. Mark Garner was going to come, but he was stuck in space.
Zain: Yeah.
Zain: It's
Corey: It's a setback.
Zain: It's a setback.
Corey: And look what happened to him. Yeah. No, it's a big
Zain: No, it's a big
Carter: big
Zain: big setback for him. One small step for humanity, as I say.
Corey: say. Oh,
Zain: Oh,
Corey: Oh, my God. Yeah, that's what
Carter: what I say. So good. Carter,
Corey: say.
Zain: say. So good.
Zain: Carter, are we good? Are we good, Corey? Let's move it on to our first segment, Corey. our first segment global elite donald
Zain: donald trump has zoomed in to davos where the global elite were hanging and in a very long speech he
Zain: he did some side swipes to canada again uh he mentioned that canadian lumber canadian oil and gas canadian automotive sector your cars your lumber your wood your oil and gas we don't need it we don't become the 51st state or get ready to pay a tariff Carter, we also know that based on a question in his first, you know, press conference, which was held in the Oval Office, Canada's own, Alberta's own, Josh Wingrove, asked Trump about the tariff plan. And he suggested that the date they were circling on the calendar, they being the Trump administration, was February 1st. Corey, where
Corey: Carter, we also know
Zain: does this put us? I
Corey: does this put
Corey: I
Corey: don't know it turns any – we're in the same place. Let's put it that way. i think that this is not in any way additive or revealing um the fact that people gasped in davos makes me think they weren't paying any fucking attention because he didn't really say anything new at this particular juncture he's continued to continue you know do his bellicose you've got to be the 51st state thing he's continued his we're going to introduce this tariff thing we didn't learn anything new and in fact i would argue um it's just more of the same but it is a troubling same, right? Like, let's not get numb to what Donald Trump is proposing here. One, the tariffs alone are very bad. They're very damaging for the Canadian economy. They would be incredibly disruptive up here. It would be incredibly disruptive in the United States. He actually does need a lot of the products he's just described on that list there. But two, anybody who thinks he's joking about this 51st state thing, anybody who thinks he's trolling about this, I want to open your eyes a little bit here. I want you to think about something that I feel is actually And that is that Donald Trump knows what his legacy is going to be right now. He's crazy, but he's not an idiot. And this is a man who's been impeached multiple times. He knows J6, you know, January 6 is going to be a huge part of his legacy. He knows the felonies are just looming right over him. And he knows the only way he changes this story in his second term is if he does something big enough to overshadow those other things. things he's an old man he's looking for his legacy he's a gambler at the table way down hoping one big bet puts him back into it that's why he's talking about greenland that's why he's talking about panama that's why he's talking about canada it's why he's talking about all of these massive throws that really they don't make sense but if they were actually somehow to pay off it would it would just fundamentally change his place in the history books here this is a dangerous guy because he's looking for a legacy and he somehow has gotten in his mind that canada could be part part of that legacy so it's alarming like we're not going to join the united states that's not realistic that's not practical we don't want to america doesn't want us to it's not going to happen but in pursuit of doing this he could do incredible damage to our country in his carter
Zain: carter in addition to the i'll get you to react to what cory said in
Zain: in addition to the tariffs waged against canada the threat of tariffs to be accurate he also suggested that nato defense spending needed to be 5% of GDP of allied NATO members, just to keep everyone up on the conversation. Canada's been struggling to get up to the 2%, and that has been a topic of national debate with tons of pressure for us to do so. Carter, where does this put us?
Carter: Well, I'll tell you something. It puts us behind the eight ball. You
Carter: You know, the idea
Carter: idea that these problems
Carter: problems are going
Carter: going to go away in some fashion i mean it's
Carter: it's just not not highly likely these these problems will continue to persist regardless of whether or not progress is made um
Carter: um you know we can stand strong against the the the the inputs from donald trump but
Carter: but he's going to keep making these demands and you
Carter: you know the the overton window shifts as things are continually shift you know talked about continually continually talked about, is a common currency that far off? What type of things would he be willing to accept as his replacement legacy, if not the whole kit and caboodle? And I
Carter: I don't know that he's not insane.
Carter: I don't know that he's sane enough to not decide
Carter: that they're going to do this. He's already threatened economic warfare. fair.
Zain: What do you think of Corey's piece of legacy as the political justification? I think that's a really good motivation.
Carter: justification? I think that's a really good motivation.
Carter: But I don't think he needs legacy in
Carter: in order to feel this motivation. I think that he could just be this crazy and think that that's enough, right? Like
Carter: his first fixation when he came in last time was dealing with the world's dictators. His fixation this time appears to be um growth uh they're just a different fixation that's all he's fixated like a a child is fixated on a toy truck cory
Zain: cory help me with this um what does a federal leader need to think about right now you said not a lot has changed and let me let me define federal leader the two candidates running for prime minister effectively pierre polyev and justin trudeau let's put it at that handful jagmeet singh and others but like sure let's let's limit it to to to that group. Nothing has changed, but things are progressing. It's not like we're
Zain: we're still on the same track. And that actually, in its own right, is telling of something. The threat is more serious. So how are you thinking about how you're processing about it from either a comms brain or a strategy brain or even a policy brain, wherever you'd like to go?
Corey: Well, yeah, I think you've got to deal with a couple of different challenges concurrently. One of the challenges is this immediate moment of crisis, A, how you avoid it, B, how you retaliate and get out of it. And I think those two things are combined, if it happens, and then C, how
Corey: how you make sure this kind of thing is less likely to happen again in the future. So let's start with the first one. To avoid it, you've got to create a pressure that makes America think this is just like this is not going to go well for us, which is part of why I think a lot of us are pulling our hair out at Danielle Smith's actions and words and suggesting that Canadian oil shouldn't be on the table here. Because, I mean, it's almost the point. It's very important. Oil and gas is very important for the United States from Alberta. And so our ability to avoid all tariffs is strengthened if we threaten to put that on the table. And taking it off the table doesn't help us. If we take off the table the things America actually cares about, we are going to be screwed. We are going to end up with very big tariffs, right? And, you know, anybody who's giving,
Carter: to end up
Corey: I think, Donald Trump the credit of being a rational actor is just not paying attention to Donald Trump's recent comments. And I encourage you to go back and sort of interpret
Corey: interpret them through the lens of what is this guy actually saying? What's he trying to do? Because his entire trade war is not rational. It's an emotional thing. It's a tough guy thing. How do you deal with a fucking tough guy? Answer that question, you find the answer to A, right?
Corey: right? Right.
Corey: There's things the government can do. The government should be persuading Americans, should be out there making the case, raising the stakes, talking about what the risk to America's economy would be and working the networks that would encourage the governors and the Republicans and the business leaders to to tell Donald Trump, you don't need to do this now in this way. Mexico's your real target. China's your real target. You
Corey: don't really want to do this. Sorry to sound a little bit like Doug Ford there, but I think that there's a reality that it's easier to, you know. Yeah, because in Mexico, they're Mexicans, right? They're
Zain: They're not like us.
Corey: Jesus
Zain: Jesus Christ.
Corey: Christ.
Corey: And in China,
Zain: And in China, they're Chinese.
Corey: We're going to move on from that. They're not like Canadians.
Zain: They're not like Canadians. They're Chinese there. Sorry, that was my best Doug Ford. You know, the premier that's going to call an election next week? Yeah,
Corey: the premier that's going to call an election next week? Yeah, I've heard of him. Okay.
Zain: Okay. I heard Canada's not a first. I heard you like him a lot. I heard you're a big fan, Corey. I heard you're a really big fan. Hey, Carter, I'm going to ask you a slightly different question.
Corey: Okay.
Corey: Canada's
Corey: question. Well, hey,
Zain: question. Well, hey, hold
Corey: hold on.
Corey: We're
Zain: We're not done. I thought
Corey: We're not done. I thought
Corey: thought
Zain: thought he's
Corey: he's done. I thought he's done. We
Corey: We usually end on a joke
Zain: end on a joke of mine.
Corey: B is, how do you get out? You're a leader, and you're trying to get out of tariffs once they actually happen. And there, you have to be tough, and you have to be asymmetric. And if he's going to frame his tariffs in conquest, then you treat him like an oligarch and a conqueror and you do things like I've talked about this before. Cancel those Trump trademarks. Ban X. Tell Spotify and tell Apple Music they've got to take down podcasts from right wing podcasters who are supporting it. get fox news off the airwaves freeze accounts of people who are pushing for this who are in his inner circle use the oligarch playbook hurt him not americans and watch his head on come off his you know body if you do need to move to the next thing and actually push back find time limited ways to push back if you're going to reduce electricity to the united states give a lot of notice and do it for 72 hours just to make your point same with oil and gas do these these things for time-limited periods, just to make your point. And then we've got to get to C, and C is where you can spend a lot more time. We've spent eight years not doing anything to get ready for this. We've got to, as a country, get serious about how we strengthen our economy, strengthen our military, strengthen our cultural independence, and get out from underneath this particular thumb. It's a real challenge, and it's going to take years and years to do, but we've got to get through the moment of crisis, and then we've got to start protecting our country against Carter,
Zain: how do
Carter: just to
Zain: Carter,
Zain: do you have much more to add to what Corey said here? Because if not, I want to ask you to play a role as political strategist Stephen Carter, and I'm going to give you a choice in terms of who you can strategize for.
Carter: Oh, great. I'll do the political strategy role. Yeah, rather than this long-winded analysis.
Zain: Yeah, rather than this long-winded analysis. For 200, thank you. Yeah, right, this professorial analysis that we got, yeah. Carter, who do you want? Do you want the Liberal Party of Canada or do you want Daniel Smith?
Carter: For 200,
Carter: Liberal Party of Canada. um
Zain: um you are being criticized that you guys have your head up your ass while this threat gets even more serious how
Zain: are you defending against that um as a party as
Zain: as you select the next prime minister how are you defending against that right now when when commentators pundits clearly your opposition are saying fucking prorogation leadership election like endorsements like memberships, like, you know, jerking off into the wind while the country is in crisis. How are you strategizing for the party
Zain: against that, Carter? And Corey, you're by default are going to get Daniel Smith in a second. I
Carter: I think that consistency, I think that the leadership contenders should be basically echoing Justin Trudeau when he does a when he says there's going to be dollar for dollar retaliation. I think that each every single one of the leadership contenders should at the very least be be uh be echoing those those comments this isn't time for people to be freelancing and going off and doing uh you know their own thing and offering up their own deals this is the time for uh the leadership contenders ever to stand behind the prime minister the way his cabinet would stand behind him uh as as as one so that That, I think, has to happen for the Liberal Party standing behind. That's it.
Zain: Is that happening right now, Carter? Give me an update in terms of where at least the leading candidates are. Are they in lockstep with where the PM is, or do you see divergence being a tactic that is being taken right now?
Carter: I haven't seen much divergence, but I also haven't seen a lot of people making direct statements saying that the prime minister is right to go for dollar-for-dollar trade retaliation. Right now, the leadership contenders seem content to allow the prime minister to speak, but they're not necessarily jumping in with their own points of view.
Zain: Corey, any response to her and then I'll give you Daniel Spitz's scenario in a second.
Corey: Well, I think that the liberal contenders are in a tough place because one of the things that the liberals have been saying is we've got to hang together and we've got to work as a country. So
Corey: it becomes a little tough for them then to undermine whatever the prime minister is doing. So they are retreating, I will say, to just this, you know, wrap themselves in the flag. It's all about Nanaimo bars and snow and hockey. But their challenge
Zain: But their challenge is interesting, right? They're trying to actively distance themselves from the PM on everything, but be in lockstep with him on this thing? Well,
Corey: I don't know if I would describe it as being in lockstep with him on this thing. I would be saying, I am going to present the attributes that you are looking for in a leader who is going to best manage this file. And I think that's an important distinction, right? Like they're going to present themselves in a different way than Justin Trudeau would. They'll use a lot of subtext about the need to bring the country together and how what we really need in this moment is like economic strength and all of that. That can allow us to squint and kind of imagine what they would do in that situation. And of course, Freeland has made her entire campaign like free land, you know, as two separate words talking about her ability to stand up. We'll talk about
Zain: this thing.
Zain: about
Zain: about
Zain: We'll talk about that in our branding episode, hopefully Sunday. Yeah,
Corey: Yeah, for sure. For Donald Trump or stand up to Donald Trump. And and so but she's not saying anything different than what the prime minister is saying. She is doing an exaggerated version of the character that she would bring to those negotiations in that debate and that conversation. And that's how the liberals are handling it right now. They're auditioning for the role, but they're not on the stage, and they're acutely aware of that.
Zain: Corey, you're strategizing for Daniel Smith. I don't really have a task for you as much as it's an analysis and then strategize piece. So you may actually say, I don't need to do anything. how have your comments and your stances and your photo ops and your meetings with governors and the republican leadership how is that aged given today and and what if anything do you need to do if you're daniel smith i
Zain: think
Corey: think the challenge daniel smith always had and to be fair the challenge that justin trudeau had the minute he went down to mar-a-lago is the minute you engage with this guy any action he takes from that point forward will reflect on you in some some way, shape, or form. Right.
Zain: Right. And today, oil and gas
Corey: today, oil and gas was mentioned. And I'll tell you, like, I thought that Justin Trudeau, I said at the time, okay, looks pretty bold going down there. But the next thing that, you know, all it's going to take is one tweet for it to look retroactively like a really bad idea that Justin Trudeau went down to Mar-a-Lago. And I think that bore out. And it's not because there was any kind of brilliant insight by me. It's because Trump burns everybody he works with, everybody he negotiates with. and people probably should have been aware of that before they sent the premier of alberta down to talk to him too whatever you think of her motives i just think tactically it was foolish for exactly what you said all he needs to do is stand up and say we don't give a shit about oil i don't care you know we're going to do this and and you've gone from being somebody who's on team canada saying we're united against donald trump that was your that was the path not taken to the person for daniel smith yes that's right to the person who took a different approach that just looks really ineffectual. And that's a dangerous place to be. You went out on a ledge, you took the big swing, whatever metaphor you want here, but now you're going to have to own some of this and you're going to have to wear it. And we don't have really any polling in Alberta that's specifically asking the question like, hey, how do you feel about how Daniel Smith has done on this particular matter? I suspect it's days away. I suspect the polling already exists in some situations here but the vibes are not great at least in calgary at least talking to edmontonians a lot of frustration with how she's taken this approach and i think um i think that when you you look at how she ended up here she
Corey: she made a couple of risky bets and those bets have not paid off and it's as simple as that so the question she now has is in some ways that parallel to donald trump's do you continue doubling down or do you ease off do you walk away from that table do you you say, this was not a smart bet. And my view is in the last couple of days, she has kind of softened her language. Now, every now and then they swing back the other way. But I'm not feeling the same bellicosity that I was a week ago on this. I think she's starting to realize, at the very least, she needs a bit of a diversified portfolio approach here. You know, pictures with Pete Hegseth as he's being accused of, you know, assaulting his wife or ex-wife and hanging Hanging out at Mar-a-Lago. These are not good vibes at moments like this. And I think we're starting to see that.
Corey: Carter, was it a mistake? Mar-a-Lago, the
Zain: the governors, the inauguration? And react to what Corey said here, too.
Carter: Yeah, I mean, I think that, you
Carter: know, when you
Carter: you go down and you try and deal with Trump in good faith, you're going to get fucked.
Carter: Because Trump is not someone who negotiates in good faith. The history of contractors not getting paid, the history of people who have tried to deal with Donald Trump in good faith and have been screwed are legendary. I mean, it just continues on and on and on. Even the documents
Corey: is not
Carter: documents case, you know, like how he put
Carter: put away all of those documents in Mar-a-Lago. He doesn't feel bound by contractual obligations. He doesn't feel bound by niceties and norms. He is instead someone who will float
Carter: float
Carter: float the rules in order to get what he wants to achieve. And what he wants to achieve is not parallel interest to what Danielle Smith wants to achieve. What he wants, you know, what he wants to achieve. And this is where people like Don Braid and Rick Bell and the people who are carrying Danielle Smith's water right now. man they're gonna they're gonna suffer because at some point uh
Carter: uh and i don't even think we've gotten close to it uh
Carter: uh but at some point daniel smith is going to be absolutely
Carter: absolutely laid open by donald trump because uh that's what he does you know when he when you say you don't need canadian oil you're fucking nuts you're fucking nuts so this is this is the guy this is the uh the
Carter: the play that he's going to make and daniel smith's going to look like a fucking idiot gory yeah
Corey: yeah i think that one of the things that we should remember is that well this is the hugest deal in canada it's obviously just the side of donald trump's desk and we're we're pretty lucky about that also it doesn't speak well to us that the side of his desk can put us into such existential crisis as a country right but let's be clear he's not putting his whole ass into this if we take at face value you that he wants canada as a 51st state like he sees this as a solution he would have gone a good distance to tearing our country in pieces if today he had not said we don't need canadian oil but said the opposite that's the one thing we do need we're willing to exempt that imagine what that would have done to our country but he didn't because he's only half paying attention to this file he's only half taking it seriously but as a country we need to take it seriously uh and there's is a very asymmetric relationship here we need to be mindful of can
Zain: seriously but
Zain: we play that game for a second like
Zain: the alternative reality god sure okay walk me through it walk me through it so today the speech fuck lumber yeah fuck your automotive sector don't need them canadian oil and gas he he says it in the most trumpian way i don't i don't i we could make some use of that until we says some version of that right we need it with like canadian
Corey: canadian oil and gas very
Zain: canadian oil and
Zain: very
Corey: very important very special alberta's got got a great premier she's told me some great things about this i think that we could really make a deal i think we can deal with her that is a reasonable leader that
Zain: happens
Corey: happens sure
Zain: sure premier's officer here is that carter how should they be reacting how
Zain: and how would that yeah yeah no no how would what should in this how would and how should right and then like walk me through because i don't think people understand like how this i shouldn't say ages because i've just used that term with with her takes but yeah let me use that like how does this as soon as it lands it might might give you one emotion. And as soon as it metastasizes this news, it may give you another one.
Corey: how would what should in this how would
Carter: Yeah, I mean, I honestly don't know, Zane. I mean, I'm
Carter: actually looking to Corey to help me out on this one. Like, this is... Well, we can work
Zain: is... Well, we can work together. I'm just kind of curious about this. Like, if that were the case today, how would that premier's office, how should they and would they have reacted? How would this have been received by the Canadian media? How would it should, like, what would the narratives be? I'm kind of curious about where that would land, Because that day could come, by the way, right?
Zain: right? It's not like it's
Corey: right? It's not like it's not destined to happen because it didn't
Zain: didn't happen today.
Corey: A
Zain: A hundred percent. To your point about him paying half attention, right? Like he's doubling down today, but he's backtracked on many files many times or changed course with often no rationale. So,
Zain: So, Corey, you
Corey: you have anything to
Zain: to throw onto the table in terms of how this was related? Help me out, Corey. Help me out. Well, help us out.
Corey: out. Well, help
Corey: out.
Zain: out. I
Corey: I
Corey: think that the obvious response, if you're Daniel Smith at that moment, is to say, see, diplomacy works. I went out there and look what I was able to do. And the rest of you are fools for not taking this diplomatic approach with me. I was right. You were wrong. but how it's going to play in the rest of the country is very different it's going to be holy fuck you traitor you betrayed the rest of this country just to get your pieces of silver just to make sure that uh that the alberta oil and gas industry could continue the oil industry really we're talking about specifically here right yeah and um and
Carter: yeah and
Corey: and that's it's going to create incredible tensions within confederation so my point was that was this that was the step he could take to create the biggest tensions within our country right and the pressure would then be in the rest of the country very strong to say nope you know oil's in this bundle too it's all or none but daniel smith now being presented with a reality where it is entirely up to canada whether canadian oil is subject to these that's
Corey: a very stressful thing for this country and i mean that in the sense of like the way it would pull at the country so that i mean if i'm daniel smith Yes. My answer is pretty easy. It's to say, see, I told you so. It's all about diplomacy. And you get to kind of take a victory lap both at the provincial and federal level. But it just is not going to play very well. Like, what's her option? The alternative is to say, I did this wrong. I got exactly what I wanted. No, I mean,
Zain: It's all about
Zain: what's her option?
Zain: she has only one option because this is what she's fighting for. This is where I'm at, Carter, too, which is that, you know, she could spin it and there's an easy tale to tell.
Corey: is what she's
Zain: And
Zain: And it might be very satisfying to tell that tale initially. But isn't a carve out based on her actions now the worst thing that could happen to Danielle Smith politically? politically?
Carter: What does she need? She's only going to run for re-election in Alberta. She's not ever going to seek national office. Sure, every other premier is going to hate her. The prime minister is going to hate her. But it's
Carter: it's not like she's getting a tremendous
Carter: tremendous
Carter: tremendous number of Valentines on Valentine's Day from those folks anyways. She's already an outcast within that system. And so who cares? Who cares? If she got her carve out, she'd be singing and dancing. Janssen.
Carter: Should she be? I
Carter: don't think so. I think that, you know, I
Carter: care about the country. I don't I don't know. Maybe I'm just maybe I'm just a little slow, but I actually think the country matters. Corey,
Carter: Corey,
Zain: Corey, was a carve out not the worst thing to happen to Smith with the track she's laid? I
Corey: think a carve out is what she wanted. And so it's hard to say it's the worst thing, but it is very much a be careful what you wish for thing.
Zain: I
Corey: I again, we've said this before, Pierre Polyev's got a huge lead, but this is how you blow huge leads. Like, the pressure on him to then go against Alberta would be very extreme. By the way, he's still mealy-mouthed on this. Incredibly quiet on it. Yeah. And I do think that, well, I don't put a ton of stock in the ECOS numbers showing such a tightening of the race. Seven-point race, according to ECOS now. Yeah, let's wait for a few more pollsters on that one, right? I'm all in.
Zain: on him to
Zain: extreme. By the way, he's
Zain: Yeah.
Zain: according to ECOS now.
Corey: Okay. I believe it. Good for you. Hey, anything
Zain: I believe
Zain: Hey, anything you want to declare? any no okay well
Corey: i i think um i think it would it would cause the conservatives a lot of trouble and that is the kind of thing that can start to really screw up with some federal ambitions and it would really isolate alberta and the other thing i'd point out is well oil and gas or oil let's just keep it to oil it's just reflex to say oil and gas in this province right well oil is obviously very important to alberta it's not the only thing you know agriculture is a big thing here we don't have as much manufacturing but there is manufacturing here this is kind of what i was going to get to like you know with other industries yeah it's going to create crazy tensions and it's going to manifest in rural alberta in in her base and and i guess this is just to go back to it not to beat this dead horse but this is exactly why calling for these kinds of carve outs or exemptions are suggesting they should be you
Corey: you
Corey: you know free from from tariffs because that's just better for one industry is very dangerous for a premier of a whole province. And our ability to avoid tariffs on everything we have in Alberta, you know, this goes back to my point A, right? We got to be tough, we got to put it all on the table, we might not want to do it. But we have to be willing to take a stand on this. And it's a certain amount of mutually assured destruction and brinkmanship style negotiation. But that's the kind of negotiation Donald Trump responds to.
Zain: better for
Zain: Yeah.
Carter: Yeah.
Zain: Yeah.
Carter: Yeah.
Zain: Yeah. And Carter, I'm going to make a hard pivot to the liberal leadership race, although there are some through lines, even with the polling you'd suggested here.
Carter: Yeah.
Zain: I got a couple of things I want to talk about. And
Zain: let me use the ECOS polling, even if it might be an outlier, as a case for something that might be happening with the liberal universe right now.
Zain: Hope. It
Zain: seems like for a first time in a long time, there's a bit of hope. You
Zain: You see some candidates who are suggesting they're going to run again, even though they've said their goodbyes, now saying that with, and in this case, particularly Carney, has been the focus of many of these folks being like, if this guy's in, I'm in, right? right? Is this
Carter: You see some
Carter: now saying
Zain: hope?
Zain: I'm not going to say, is this hope good?
Zain: Because I think we know the answer to that. Unless you disagree with the natural answer of yes, then please jump in. But I guess my question is, how do you capitalize on this? And how do you utilize, because you're having to run a strategic sort of
Zain: renewal campaign without conceding defeat. You're having to show that the The outsider is viable. You're having to do all these things while this crisis-level threat of the future of your country's economy and by extension your
Zain: country, right, like on many other levels is at the brink. So what do you kind of make of this very quick hope that has been ejected or at least seems to be ejected within the liberal universe and does it have an outpouring beyond the small container that is the Liberal Party of Canada? I
Carter: think that hope is contagious. I think that hope will move beyond the Liberal Party of Canada. But I think that this is just really emphasizing the problem with the leadership dynamic in Canadian politics and in politics in general around the world. Because
Carter: Because we've made things so leader-centric, when
Carter: when the leader becomes tremendously unpopular,
Carter: it appears to
Carter: to be very
Carter: very easy to remove all of that. And Pierre Polyev, I think, is another example of it. Aaron O'Toole leaves and in comes Polyev, and all of a sudden there's a tremendous amount of hope
Carter: hope and expectation
Carter: expectation around Polyev, even though he's done, I think, exceptionally little to have deserved any credit on the national stage. age. He can speak well and he comes across good in a video and suddenly he's the great white hope. Well, now
Carter: now there's another couple of people who can speak well and come across nicely in a video and they're the next great white hopes. And the hope seems to be
Carter: be easily manufactured in this society as long as you don't have to govern.
Carter: And the second you have to govern, the hope dissipates because it's too hard to meet
Carter: people's expectations in today's society, in the leader-centric society.
Zain: Corey, what do you kind of think of this hope that's being presented, that's being sprung
Zain: on Canadians, or at least liberals, in some way?
Corey: it's like Dave said, right? Hope is a good thing, maybe the best thing, and no good thing ever dies. It's pretty foundational for a political party to move forward. A hopeless political party is not only not going to win, but they're probably going to lose pretty hard. And the liberals need that hope. That hope is what gets them out of bed in the morning. That hope is what drives them forward. Carter, I think you should avoid the phrase a great white hope. I'm fairly certain that comes from like a more racially tinged time, just as a heads up. No, but they're generally, I mean, unless Ruby Dallas is going to win, they're
Zain: No, but they're generally,
Zain: mean, unless Ruby Dallas is
Zain: they're
Corey: they're
Zain: they're
Corey: they're white. yeah so
Zain: so it's fine i'm good yeah
Corey: yeah i
Zain: yeah i
Zain: i started with sharks but
Corey: i started with sharks but the great hope of the party is something that i mean great great great white hope no just great hope just great hope great purebred
Zain: i mean great great great
Zain: just great hope
Carter: hope
Zain: great purebred white hope of the party yeah it's
Corey: it's what you mean i'm not feeling that one no you're not feeling that one i i personally am
Zain: you're not feeling that one i i personally am so
Zain: so
Corey: so
Zain: so okay
Corey: well i'm fairly certain it comes from when you know black boxers and white boxers fought each other and they were looking for a white boxer that could beat the black boxers so So how dare you, Carter? Once again, how dare
Carter: again, how dare
Zain: dare
Zain: dare
Carter: dare
Zain: dare you,
Corey: you, Carter? I feel
Carter: I feel awful now.
Zain: feel
Zain: You do. And you should.
Zain: How dare you? How dare you take us
Corey: us down this path? Okay, Corey, keep going. Well,
Corey: I think that we just, you know, we discount how much motivation plays in these things. Like we tend to look at it and say, oh, here's where the polls are there. And here's where the money is over here. And the reality is political parties are constructs made up of people. And if those people are motivated, you're going to get more out of them than not. Even if that more out of them is not enough to win the election, it can really change some of the context of that election. But Carter,
Zain: Carter, there does seem to be something going on, at least, and I guess what I'm trying to ask as a strategist to the two of you, is the balance between hope and delusion, which is always given a negative connotation. But do you need people to be deluded, in some ways, in order to generate more hope, in order to generate more effort, in order to generate more, more, more, more ambition? Like, you know, there's folks right now that are saying, Oh, I think my seat's winnable. I'm
Zain: coming back in the game. Yeah. Right? And you're hearing a few folks. It might just be those few folks, right? But you're hearing a bit of that, and there's something interesting about that, where I don't know if it's hope, I don't know if it's delusion, but something's happening. And how do you capitalize on what that is, whatever label you want to give it?
Carter: Well, back in the day, I used to call it myth. You know, when something reached a mythical level, I've stopped calling it that because people say that myth is the equivalent of a lie. And given that, you know, most religions are based on myth, I guess I have to accept that. Except one, yep.
Corey: Except one, yep. Yeah.
Carter: Yeah. But nonetheless, this idea of myth is when something becomes larger than the truth that sustains it. And the myth that is starting
Carter: to attach itself to various leadership campaigns, starting to attach itself to the Liberal
Carter: Liberal Party, it
Carter: it would be mythical to
Carter: to see them rise from
Carter: from the dead and
Carter: and after three days suddenly emerge from the cave in which they've been buried and put forth as the chosen one, the son of the father. um i think that that is probably did i get confused did i get lost halfway through that i might have i i think i made a religious anyways the point of the exercise is when something becomes mythical it really does have power and i would argue nenshi 1
Carter: 1.0 became mythical i think that allison redford became mythical in her leadership when her mother died especially Especially that became a mythical moment.
Carter: Jyoti Gondek has been mythical. They have grown beyond the truth. There's
Carter: There's been three mythical campaigns.
Zain: three mythical
Corey: mythical campaigns. All of which you've been involved in. Yeah, I was noted. Well,
Carter: All of which
Zain: which
Zain: involved
Carter: involved
Zain: involved
Corey: Well,
Zain: Well,
Carter: Well, now Carney. Anyways, it
Zain: now
Corey: now Carney.
Zain: Carney.
Carter: all comes to a head.
Zain: It really all comes to a head. Corey, if you are the liberal universe, do you want to buy into this ECOS poll? or do you want to express caution like how you
Zain: do not want to buy into this pool okay so talk to me about that right because of course you've got some organizers who are like who are going to want to be like hey you know we got to be level-headed about this this is one of one like one billion but others might be like fuck it this shows that things are happening that we need this to be true in order for people to work harder in order for it to actually potentially one day be true like so So talk to me about the balance there, if you understand what I'm putting down. Of
Corey: Of course. I think in general, live by the poll, die by the poll. You want to be pointing them to other signs, ones that are more in your control and not what Frank Graves sees on any given day in terms of what's giving you that hope. I mean, by all means, if you're on the Carney campaign, point to Carney's launch video. It's really great. Doesn't that just hit things for you, right? Talk about all of the endorsements. Talk about how you're getting all of this buzz going. Talk about the memberships you're selling. You control these things. You don't control what the pollsters see on any given day. And I think that where parties often run themselves into trouble is by saying, whether I am in a good mood or a bad mood is based on my polling, because
Corey: because you don't control polling. And
Zain: And so
Corey: so a smart political party will actually try to point people towards the signs that they do control and say what you will about Donald Trump. And I'd say a lot of nasty things, frankly, but the way they're like, fuck the polls. Nobody cares about the polls. Polls are bullshit. How do you feel? How are the neighbors you're talking to talking? That is something that they have a little bit more ability to manage. And that matters in politics. Carter,
Zain: smart political
Corey: you
Zain: you
Zain: see this poll. You're working on a campaign. How are you selling that to your folks? Like, how are you trying to best
Zain: weaponize that for your maximum political benefit to your own supporters, to your own universe? Keep
Carter: Keep in mind that it's not a poll that says if, you know, Mark Carney wins, then this is a liberal poll. But it is a it is a poll that says the liberals are moving. And
Zain: a liberal poll.
Carter: And I think that that the way I would characterize this, I'm not sure I believe the ECOS poll. I mean, I'm looking for more data. But what I would characterize is this
Carter: this movement is possible because the liberals have taken action. And it just reminds us that action delivers results. So let's keep going through this. Let's make the action more profound, more intense, and see what we can actually achieve collectively. And I think that that will generate some positives
Carter: positives for the liberals. polls.
Zain: Corey, jump in. And then I've got I've got two other things I want to talk about very quickly in this race that I've seen this week.
Corey: Well, the reality is polls do exist. And you can look at campaigns that say, oh, the only poll that matters is on election. We've talked about this, right? Nobody, nobody actually believes that. So people are going to look at the polls, they are going to say, have you seen this fucking poll? And you need to you need to moderate them, you need to do basically what Stephen said, which is to say, hey, look, I mean, that's positive. Do I fully believe it no do i even 80 believe it no but i do believe we're on the move and i do believe we're setting the foundation for future growth and that's because of your action and by the way do you see this video did you see the numbers did you see did you see things that we uh you know actually control as organizers yeah rather than the things that we don't
Zain: yeah rather than
Zain: i want to talk about gilbo and i want to talk about freeland strategy let's start with freeland strategy and cory i'm going to start with you um so since her launch she's trying a lot it seems to distance herself from the prime minister going on on morning television saying you know one thing i do different is is not finance fire my finance minister uh i had the weekend ahead before i'm supposed to give the the fiscal update um she's walking away on policy from the the capital gains uh aspect of things she's trying actively and aggressively um not
Zain: not to undercut justin trudeau but to take the most firmest stance in the race i would say against justin trudeau one would say say, duh, she's got like the closest linkage. So of course, she's got to go hardest in that opposite direction. But
Corey: against justin
Zain: is it working for you, Corey? And do you have any advice for her around how she would do that? Because once again, we're talking about rapid timelines here, right? She doesn't have months to lay out a series of policies so that three months later, she looks like a completely different person than the Christopher Freeland that we always knew. She's got to do this in pretty rapid succession. And to do that, she's got to punch through. So what advice would would you give her as she goes on her journey of distancing which she's already on um and moving forward
Corey: forward yeah on one level i 100 get it she needs to shove him harder because she's standing closer to him right carnie is a little bit more distant carnie's able to say hey you know i i advised every now and then my advice a lot of world leaders what are you talking about a lot of world
Zain: advice a lot of world leaders what are you talking about a lot of world leaders do you know how many boards i was on
Corey: on before i quit them all i do i do know all of of them yeah i am
Zain: do i
Zain: yeah i am no they were you know why because he told me yeah
Corey: am no they were you know why
Corey: yeah he told well he told everyone well i mean i know him i know but he told everyone sorry he told everyone you know you know one person i don't know is christian prelence
Zain: told well
Zain: well
Zain: well he told everyone well i mean i know him i know but he told everyone sorry he told everyone you know you know one person i don't know is christian
Zain: prelence
Corey: prelence i don't i don't
Corey: she's closer so she needs to push harder but totally there is there is a reality here which is at a certain point it starts to feel like well if you feel so strongly about the guy what the fuck were you doing right and so there is there is this like needle that she needs to thread here because if If you had such problems with his financial approach, what the fuck were you
Zain: you
Corey: you
Zain: you doing?
Corey: Why weren't you there? If you had such qualms with delivering these financial statements, why did you wait to be fired before you were mad about it? Why didn't you say something then? Yes, I get there were tensions behind the scenes. I understand that. I understand that was part of how it came to a head here. But you had a lot of choices and you had a lot of options. And you can play the, well, you know, but I'm just one member of a team card for sure. And I think people understand that. But if you dial the rhetoric up a little too high, people start to say, well, if that's how extreme you felt, your actions make no sense to me. And so that's the challenge she has as she moves forward here. And I also just think realistically, it's tough for somebody who is so closely tied with the rise of Justin Trudeau to disown Justin Trudeau in any meaningful way. So she's in a bit of a box. I think she has given herself license to be the one who's firmest about his leadership with people. And she is also using that as an example of her being tough more broadly and tough with Trump. But I just don't know if it's going to work, if I'm being frank. Greg, Carter,
Zain: weren't you there?
Zain: Carter, I'll come to you in a second. Corey, let me ask you the foundational question here, though, on strategy. Is distancing yourself from Trudeau still the right approach for her?
Zain: It's the only
Corey: only approach.
Zain: approach. Like, what's their alternative?
Corey: alternative?
Zain: alternative?
Corey: Well,
Zain: there is an argument to be made, and let me try to make it, maybe not the best
Corey: not the best
Zain: best of it, that there's an 80,000-person base, that this list is not going to grow, that this was the Justin Trudeau party since 2013. These are the Justin Trudeau members, and you were the closest to Justin Trudeau, so So there might be fertile ground for you to not do what you think you need to do in the general election but win the leadership. Now, I don't know if – there might be fault lines and holes in what I've put out there. I'm just going on what some of the – I don't have access to the database. I don't – but I'm making some what I think are pretty logical assumptions to say, does Chrystia Freeland need to be what
Zain: she needs to be in the general election today? day? And isn't the whole value of our leadership that, and in some strange way, Carney's looking like continuity, but that's going to be an aside and we can discuss it here, but that's my theory to you.
Zain: Well,
Corey: Well, it's a good one, I think. I do agree that in general, and we know just from the chatter that Chrystia Freeland and her team were pushing for basically a retroactive membership cutoff, that it would be the existing membership that determined this all. We know this from reporting, not even reporting, just from the rumors and the whispers that are out there. but um i'm not really sure i
Zain: know this from
Zain: not
Corey: i i'm not i'm just not so sure like i i think that part of what the liberals are looking for is is that hope that we were talking about earlier they're looking for the opportunity to win and so they will accept a certain amount of distance they'll accept whatever they think will give them the best opportunity at this point because they are more than any other political party kind of hardwired to say what's it going to take to survive right that's a big part of the liberal brand your your theory though i don't want to dismiss right there there certainly seems like there could have been a path for i am the person who's going to carry on the legacy of this party and it doesn't really look like like gold is kind of doing that i the funny thing is i think from a policy point of view she is i think her words are in some ways harsher than christia freeland's they're like the liberal party is broken the the Liberal Party needs to fix itself. Yeah.
Zain: Yeah.
Corey: Yeah.
Corey: Right? But yeah,
Corey: I don't know. It's something to think about, Zane. But it seems to me that the assumption that you are making is that the membership wants
Corey: wants continuity from Trudeau. And I'm just not sure that's the
Zain: the case. At least a portion. Of course, you add the point system, you add the geography, you add all these other complications, and you don't know where all of this resides. And you add the growth of the membership. But Carter, I'll ask you the fundamental question as well to answer it to the degree you feel comfortable. Does Christopher Freeland need to continue on the distancing track with Trudeau with the short timeline between now and the membership deadline?
Carter: Yes, it would be lunacy not to. It would be lunacy to accept the premise of the previous points that there are 80,000 members and there were Trudeau members. There were very few Trudeau members by the end of the Trudeau reign. That's why he's no longer the leader. If he'd been the leader, you know, do you remember that fundraising appeal that they put out on, was it New Year's Eve? Hi, it's Justin. I'd like to raise some money. You
Carter: You know, what do you bet that that thing raised nothing? Like, sweet fuck all. Like, $3.52, that came from Justin himself. That was him maxing out his final donation.
Carter: Like, that is, that's
Carter: that's what we're talking about from the membership. do you do you like we all i think all three of us saw that that uh that appeal and went what the fuck are they even doing do they not recognize the position that this guy is in and they're putting out a hey it's justin i'm on my way out the door but i'd like you to give us some cash that was their their fundraising appeal like this is christopher
Carter: christopher freeland has to distance distance distance mark carney has to distance distance distance everybody who's in this race how's How's Freeland
Zain: in this race how's How's Freeland doing? How's
Carter: How's Freeland doing on the distancing? She's struggling with it
Zain: How's Freeland doing on the distancing? She's
Carter: because the problem with it is that she is now distancing herself from things that she was doing. I
Carter: I would like to see her distance on immigration or distance on employment structure or distance on, you know, like, fuck, I don't give a shit, fisheries. um you can't just be differencing yourself differentiating yourself on the portfolio that you held that
Carter: that is where that's what cory was kind of alluding to earlier is that she is looking now like she was serving and just serving as a as a you know a waiter taking down the order and doing what they're told right that's not the job of a finance minister finance minister is supposed to stand there and say no sometimes and christopher freeland uh if she continues to try and paint um the relationship uh as one-sided as she's trying to present it as uh with the prime minister she's going to make herself look incredibly weak well
Corey: well i would be really curious and maybe this has happened i haven't watched all of her all of her commentary all of her stuff but i want to hear the the things that she actually was successful in getting justin trudeau to reconsider right like oh here's how i made sure that we were more economically competitive yeah
Zain: yeah things that didn't happen or yeah yeah he wanted things that
Corey: yeah yeah he wanted things that i did that you really like that are a little bit different that i pushed for right instead of the here's the ways i failed over nine months or whatever like that's that's a bit more challenging for me talk
Zain: that's a bit more
Zain: talk cory talk to me about gilbo this
Zain: this is an interesting one for me is it well
Zain: i think it is and you might tell me it's not but it has been interesting to me so gilbo endorses carney yeah
Zain: yeah what
Zain: what a twist fucking
Corey: what a twist fucking
Zain: polyeth makes a video uh
Zain: mark carney's being endorsed by the radical environmentalist who wants to triple quadruple 10 time the carbon tax right so it's it's an anchor that that and on one hand it's a it's a it's an anchor that carney has to now wear being like fuck the gilbo endorsement on another hand you could look at it this way if gilbo's willing to pretty much align with carney a guy who said said he's going to ask the consumer facing carbon tax and the carbon tax is dead like
Zain: like it's like we can move on from this
Corey: like
Corey: this chapter this guy's not going to be a holdout no
Corey: he's not going to be railing against from inside saying what a horrible shame this is right one
Zain: one would hope like he could like he's been known to
Corey: he's been known to do
Zain: do that right like so like maybe he might be the rare exception he's known to do that no i mean there was a lot of reporting that he was very upset about the carve outs right and he said like if one more fucking carve out and i'm gone right like or some version of that so So two ways to look at it, right?
Zain: right? One,
Zain: One, it's, oh my God, fucking Stephen Gilbeau. That's a brand on its own that I don't want to wear and cater to. And frankly, even I would rather reject his endorsement. Please distance yourself. Point number two, if we got Gilbeau, this means that like axing the tax, carbon tax election, not on the table, despite whatever short form video Pierre Polyev makes in the moment. Those are two schools of thought. There's probably a lot of room in between. where are you from like a strategist perspective on this uh let me put you in team carney's perspective and and kind of have you assess it that way yeah
Corey: yeah well of course as as an albertan it's hard not to have i mean he's he's not very popular here duh right that's that's something we all know to
Zain: to the point that our premier i think told tucker carlson to have him in his crosshairs or some version of it right like i mean that's just one
Corey: to the point that our
Corey: of it right like i mean that's just one of examples that's not even that it's just he he tends to take a very extreme view of these things and uh and talk almost in in like like caricature ways about the oil and gas industry. And, you know, there's just a lot of whatever you think of oil and gas industry, there's a lot of complexity and nuance and he just he has no understanding of any of it. And so it frustrates people who have even a modest understanding of how the industry works. But that said, I do ultimately feel that,
Corey: that, look, the conservatives right now are running the election they wanted, not the election they're going to get. And I don't fully understand what their thought process is here, Because there's just no way this is going to be an election about the carbon tax. If Carney says, I'm not going to have a carbon tax, like, what's it going to be like? Oh, man, can you believe that carbon tax the last guy did? Like, how
Corey: how do you sustain that for four or five weeks? As much as we talk
Zain: weeks? As much as we talk about the ghost of Justin Trudeau, it might actually have an expiry date on it quicker than
Corey: than – Well, come on. I mean, like, they're going through the stages of grief. They're drifting through denial, thinking that they're still going to get to call him carbon tax carny and run on a carbon tax and run the exact same plan. They're moving through anger at this point. They're just bending the curve to bargaining where they're starting to say, oh, we'll do some other stuff that basically talks about how he had a play in this carbon tax and you didn't like that, right? But it's not going to work. And the carbon tax seems so small,
Zain: Well, come on.
Zain: to work. And the carbon tax seems so
Zain: small, so petty, so much of just like a wart compared to the size of the Trump tariffs.
Corey: Yeah. And don't misunderstand me.
Corey: If that's indeed the ballot box question. No, I'm not even saying – I'm saying, look, people didn't like the carbon tax. The carbon tax affected the government's popularity. That is the hole the liberals now need to dig out of. But you are not going to sustain a conversation for five weeks on a finished topic, on a done deal, on a closed thing, on a dead letter. It's not happening. So I think that the sooner Pierre Polyev can wrap his head around that and move to whatever this campaign is going to be, not what he wanted it to be, the better off the conservatives are going to be. Carter,
Zain: you
Zain: have some limitations perhaps in commenting, but
Zain: talk to me about the assessment of the Gilbo. Two ways that I presented it to you, neither of which are like perhaps the exact swim lanes, but how are you thinking about this? There
Carter: have been times in my
Carter: career we've gotten, and I'm trying to think of a specific example, but
Carter: but there's times when you get an endorsement by someone that you really don't want to get an endorsement from. Actually, I remember Craig Chandler, in 2004, he ran for the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party against Jim Prentiss. And I don't even think that, you know, Craig
Corey: there's times when you get an endorsement
Carter: Craig Chandler had a delegate there.
Carter: It was a delegated convention, but his speech, he stood up on
Carter: on the night before the first vote and pledged
Carter: pledged all his delegates to Jim Prentiss.
Carter: I'll
Carter: I'll tell you something. I never wanted to receive an endorsement less than receiving that endorsement from Craig Chandler.
Corey: this is not that, though. Just to be clear, I know you're broadening it to step away from your own candidate. My point isn't that they're the same. My
Carter: know you're broadening it to step away from your own candidate. My point isn't that they're the same. My point is simply this. My point is that you don't get to choose. You don't get to turn it away. You don't get to say, I'm sorry, no. You just say, well, there you go. And then you go and fucking tell your story. You go out there and you tell your story and you don't change because Stephen Gilboa came on board. And you don't change because you didn't get Randy Bossano. You go and you tell your story and you do what you need to do.
Corey: Yeah, I mean, well put. And realistically, as long as Gilbo went in with eyes wide open and knew what Mark Carney was going to do, you do have a problem resolved, to your earlier point, Zane. Because you can't really rail against him for doing the thing if he knows he's going to do it.
Corey: Carter, are we going to leave it there, or are we going to go with the over
Zain: over-under and the lightning round? It really does depend on if you've got the energy. Let's
Carter: Let's go, baby.
Zain: Over-under and our lightning round. Stephen Carter, overrated or underrated the impact of the Braid and Bell duo on the Daniel Smith narrative? It's both a litmus test of the current sort of media climate, but I'm kind of curious, is their work overrated or underrated in terms of where it might potentially land in the narrative in the conversation?
Carter: Well, it's completely overrated. I mean, no one's reading them except the pundits. But here's the problem. They have been typing up her notes and putting them out as newspaper articles for the last few months and doing so with absolute impunity. And all of a sudden, they're
Carter: being called traitors and not by just a few people. So many people have called them traitors that both of them have writing columns, writing columns about how I'm not really a traitor. You guys are being mean to me. You're being mean to me and you're making me sad. Well, I'll tell you something. that they're
Corey: writing columns, writing columns
Carter: going to be thinking about whether or not they're going to be taking notes for Danielle Smith in the coming months. They're going to be much more objective journalists in the coming months because of the shit show that happened in this past couple of weeks. So I think that it's kind of underrated what's happened because they're not going to just take the spin from the Premier's office and say, well, that's the way I'm going to write it then. They're going to see you're going to start to see a lot more new spin. And if I was now head Nenshi, I'd be getting in there not calling them out, but But instead saying, oh, you guys got played, you know, quietly, you
Carter: guys got a little bit played there, but you
Carter: you come to us, we'll make sure that you get the information you need.
Zain: Corey, what do you think, overrated or underrated, the impact that their work is having right now in setting the narrative and the conversation here in Alberta?
Corey: Well, so for those who aren't aware, there's been like a week of columns of varying degrees of Daniel Smith was right. There was a really embarrassing moment for both of them when they talked about Daniel Smith's approach worked on Monday. just before the press conference, where Trump effectively said, no, tariffs are still on for February 1. And they both had to take down and rewrite their columns, like just just brutal stuff, right. And I think they're so desperate to prove their first columns, right, that they're losing a little bit of perspective here. And I'm sure they're feeling very assaulted by people calling them traitors. I'm sure they don't think of themselves as traitors. I'm sure they're, they're not in any kind of meaningful sense of that term, right. But columnists do best when when they're reflecting the public, not relaying the government's message to the public. And my hot take here is this never would have happened if post media was in better shape. At this point, they all work from home. They work by talking to people on the phone and having meetings. They don't run into people the same way they used to. They don't have their newsroom to keep them sane. This is crackers. Like when I read these post media columnists right now, and even when I read like getting into Chris Nelson talking about energy, you all need to go outside and touch grass. Like this is not the conversation on the streets. of calgary and rick bells call him today and i got a lot of time for rick i know a lot of people roll their eyes at him but you know he he does legitimately try to represent the people a lot of the time but the idea that you're sitting there saying well i would be right if you exclude calgary and you're a fucking i mean carter you were making this point to me you're a fucking columnist for the calgary herald and the calgary sun your
Corey: your job is to reflect calgary that is your market. You are so outside of any kind of rational thought at this point. Come back to us. Just come back to us. You know, it was a moment of weakness. You went too far. Come back to us. Just take an honest assessment of
Zain: take
Zain: of it.
Zain: Corey, let's move on for a second. Doug
Zain: Ford's got the $200 rebate checks in the mail. A senior PC source suggests that he's about to call an election next Wednesday. Wednesday. He's taken on the Captain Canada sort of mantle. Have you ever seen a better triangulation for an election call in your time than Doug Ford, despite commentary
Corey: Doug Ford,
Zain: about Doug Ford, which I have plenty of to offer? Have you seen a better triangulation and setting the stage than what Doug Ford is about to do next Wednesday?
Corey: Look, it's way too early to call that like we haven't actually seen the stage be set sure and we haven't seen the result of that election it it does seem pretty strong right what
Carter: what a
Carter: hedge that no but
Zain: no
Corey: no but
Zain: but
Corey: but what
Carter: what i'm
Zain: i'm
Carter: i'm
Zain: i'm
Carter: i'm just talking about the starting line
Zain: i'm just talking about
Zain: line just this is a triangulation this
Carter: this is a triangulation this is a triangulation that has been brilliant he has put the the the liberal party and the ndps on their knees before him and he is and he has proven to be one of the strongest political uh operatives in the country i can never tell
Zain: can never tell when you're being sarcastic the
Carter: sarcastic the man fucking walks on water right now i don't know i don't want to like him but i do yeah
Zain: now i don't know i don't
Zain: yeah do you actually mean that like you're impressed by this because i have to admit i am too it's fucking amazing
Carter: it's fucking amazing like
Carter: like he's going to crush this election crush
Carter: yeah i don't know about the outcome but at least steven carter i'm putting it my foot down right now i'm putting a line in in the sand i am drawing a conclusion doug ford wins this election in a landslide uh
Zain: don't know about the outcome but at least steven carter i'm putting it my
Zain: carter final question um one
Zain: thing that stood out to you at the inauguration one
Carter: thing that stood out to me sure yeah no one i know watched it oh
Corey: interesting yeah that's interesting i didn't watch it everybody
Carter: everybody i know i think i stayed away from it i don't think because the pain is real
Zain: i stayed away from it i
Corey: i
Zain: i don't think because the
Corey: haven't answered though i found a there was a tiktok of somebody who was like a lip reader and they were We're looking at Barack Obama, and he's talking to George W. Bush. Did you see this? Yeah, I saw this. How do we stop
Zain: Yeah, I saw this. How do we
Zain: stop
Corey: stop
Zain: stop
Corey: stop
Zain: stop
Corey: stop this thing? How do we
Zain: we
Corey: we stop this
Zain: this thing?
Corey: Yeah,
Zain: Yeah, it's pretty good. He goes over, he's like, hey,
Corey: Yeah, it's pretty
Corey: He goes over, he's like, hey, how's it going? And then Bush says, how do we stop this thing? We can talk about a
Zain: We can talk about a lot of elements of it, including that, including big tech sitting right behind the family.
Zain: I mean, just the wildest stuff, so to speak. But Carter, we don't have time, and it's your bedtime, because that's a wrap on episode 1848D. What does a D stand for, Carter? Carter? Comes after C. That's right. Of The Strategist. My name is Zane Vilge. With me, as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter, and we shall see you next time, maybe with a liberal candidate hosting the show. Who knows?