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SPEAKER_00: Ambitions made real.
Zain: is a strategist episode 1843 my name is zane belgi with me as always it's
Zain: it's cory hogan in a tie and steven carter in
Zain: in a hoodie hoodie which which one of you white men is zane belgi with
Corey: which one of you white
Corey: zane belgi with some new facial hair on his upper lip what's that about but yeah this uh this porn stash yeah yeah you can't call out my tie and not talk about your porn stash i think that it is a
Zain: hair on
Carter: on
Carter: yeah
Zain: this
Carter: it is a bit much it's
Zain: a holiday season
Zain: it's uh what do you do in the holidays are expensive we got to diversify our careers okay
Corey: what do you do in the holidays are expensive
Zain: so
Zain: so i'm wondering so you grew a porn stash well
Zain: well no mccarter if you know he started a porn doing porn jesus
Corey: he started a porn doing porn jesus
Carter: jesus christ right now is this happening is this happening right now are we unwittingly participating in this yeah
Corey: are we unwittingly participating
Zain: i don't uh the podcast premise is one of the the the least played out in in modern porn um i feel like three dudes on a podcast trying to get to a porn hub have
Carter: i
Corey: i
Carter: i
Corey: i don't uh the podcast
Carter: podcast premise is one
Carter: three dudes on a podcast trying
Carter: hub have data on this because uh they've got data you know what i want
Zain: data
Zain: you know what i want i want you to find it I want you to find it. And I want the one out of the three of us who has a real job to feel uncomfortable about this conversation.
Corey: Listen, you're
Corey: not one that I often think of as like a novelty facial hair guy. Is Indian porn on
Zain: Is Indian porn on the rise?
Corey: that a pun?
Corey: Is
Zain: Is that a
Corey: Is that a porn pun?
Corey: It's just a question. It's got to be a pun.
Carter: It's just a question. It's got to be a pun. It's
Zain: It's just a real question.
Carter: Yeah.
Carter: Before
Zain: Before I engage, is
Zain: is there going to be viewership?
Carter: That's a good question.
Zain: That's a good question. Will I be able to diversify into a Patreon seven years after starting? I think it's going to be a real thing. Or will it take – or will we lose all our money to domain names there too? I'm
Carter: I think it's going to be a real thing. Or
Carter: I'm shocked that we haven't gone to OnlyFans actually. I think we'd do well.
Zain: shocked
Zain: that we
Zain: Yeah, one of us. Well, I'll test the market for us. Don't worry, Carter. Thank you very much. You'll be the first vote. I am doing fine. I hope you two are also enjoying your holiday season, which has begun, I guess, Carter, now
Carter: Don't worry, Carter. Thank you very much. You'll be the first vote.
Zain: now 10 days ago because the holiday season begins when you stop paying GST. Oh,
Carter: Oh, yeah. Yeah,
Carter: Yeah, that has made a huge difference in my life. i've uh i've noticed every nickel that i haven't spent uh for every dollar no it's i'm actually i
Carter: i want to meet the person who thinks this is this has been really a good thing um and i'm hoping well i'm hoping it's gory hogan i
Zain: well i'm
Zain: i'm hoping it's gory hogan i wasn't intending to discuss this but i will say i was just i'm in edmonton right now and i was at west ed and half the retailers i went to including sport check uh tnt supermarket like just a random sort of swashbuckle of of different retailers all had signs talking about the gst holiday as if it was their promotion like they were like gst get the gst off in their own typeface in their own banners like custom printed signs so in some ways it's interesting maybe it's a nice incentive but i don't know i'm cory like you do any thoughts on what's up here yeah
Corey: yeah i'll say this i still think it's not a super thing to do and obviously the polling shows that canadians are pretty skeptical about it and it doesn't seem Seem to be helping the Trudeau government in any way, shape, or form. You want to take that? You want to take that? I'm okay. You want to take that, Stephen?
Carter: You want
Zain: want to take that? I'm okay. You want to take that, Stephen? No, take it right now.
Zain: Take it right now. I can't.
Corey: Take it right now. I can't.
Corey: can't.
Carter: can't.
Corey: Yeah,
Carter: Yeah,
Corey: Yeah,
Zain: Yeah, pick it up, Stephen.
Corey: Stephen.
Zain: Yeah,
Zain: Yeah,
Carter: Yeah,
Zain: Yeah, pick it up right now. No GST on that call. No GST on your rollover minutes. I said I was sorry.
Carter: I said I was sorry.
Zain: sorry.
Carter: I said I was... I didn't expect anybody to call me today. Why
Zain: I didn't expect anybody to
Zain: Why are you blushing? It's even weirder that you're blushing about it. Now I want to know who's calling rather than the fact that you got a call. Yeah, it's...
Carter: call. Yeah, it's... Probably
Zain: the CRA. Yeah,
Carter: Yeah, it's... I
Zain: I hear they're politically motivated. They
Carter: motivated. They are very politically motivated. coming after me kick
Corey: all right um yeah
Corey: i find it interesting exactly what you said that all
Corey: of these retailers are carrying the government's water on this and so well i still don't think it's going to be a net positive because it was in such a hole to begin with i think people rightly look at as a cynical political act it's
Corey: it's really fascinating to me that you can get all of these companies going out there and trumping your message to everyone as they go by i mean i've seen it sure in the past week yeah
Zain: sure in the past
Zain: yeah i agree with you to some degree but i will say that experiencing it firsthand a few hours ago it
Zain: it made it seem like at least at most of these retailers that this was something they were off yeah for sure you know like this is a this is a special service that that tnt and sport check and canadian tire were giving to the customer i mean
Corey: i mean i love that you're columbusing this like you're the first person who's gone into these stores but
Zain: but i think it's i have not been into retail for a very long time i don't know if you know about this uh retail Retail still exists. Retail's still
Corey: still out there doing things. But you're going to go to 10 different stores and they're all going to have the message. And you are going to remember that it was the government of Canada that ultimately did this, even if Safeway is saying it was them. Are you? I don't
Carter: Are
Zain: Are you? I don't think you are, Corey. I don't think you are. This is why I said there's a limitation on like them carrying the government's water. I think they're just leaning into this and being like, this is our own thing. That's how I look at it. Like
Carter: don't
Corey: don't think you are, Corey.
Corey: Like just some sort of random holiday sale. Kind
Zain: Kind of, yeah.
Corey: yeah. But here's the thing. I'll also point out that
Corey: we're all Albertans. And so for us, it's only 5%, right? It's not as much. 15% or 12%, whatever it is. 13% in Ontario, right, is the HST because it's the whole HST that's gone. So there I think it is going to feel a little bit more meaningful. They're still going to have all of those various sales cues that I was just talking about. There
Zain: as much. 15% or
Corey: There are also groups that are going to be a lot more pissed off about it. I'm hearing that servers in Ontario, super unenthused because, of course, nowadays you get the machine and you select the 15% or the 20%. On top of?
Zain: 20%. On top of? if
Corey: if you're carter the 10 that you put in right
Zain: that you
Zain: you put in right
Zain: right yeah the single digit that yeah let's call them single digit carter for a long time so
Corey: so they're seeing their take go down by 13 which is pretty meaningful yeah right and
Corey: and and so it's cutting a lot of different ways but it's interesting it's a great example of i
Corey: think unintended consequences in in both ways and maybe the government always intended that retailers everywhere would go out there and claim it was their own but it's interesting to me to see this play out uh because it's not it's not over at christmas either like Like, we're going to see this all the way through the Boxing Day season, all the way through January as well, right?
Zain: Carter, do you feel like Corey's takes are less good when he wears a tie on the show?
Carter: show? I feel like he's more constrained. I feel like he has less energy.
Zain: he has less
Carter: energy.
Zain: energy.
Zain: It's
Carter: It's less
Zain: less
Carter: less
Zain: less energy, more rote in what I say. That's how I say it. I
Carter: I say it. I will wait and see what retailers say after the Christmas season. I've got a small observation, yeah, to
Zain: what retailers say after the Christmas season. I've got a small observation, yeah, to carry in the government's water. Just trying
Carter: Just trying
Corey: trying to, like, please everybody. Blah, blah, blah. Speaking
Zain: Speaking of pleasing everybody, Corey, should we talk about the Holiday Spectacular? Oh, I thought that was going back to
Corey: Oh, I thought that was going back to your mustache. Today would
Zain: Today would be a candidate for the Holiday Spectacular, this episode. We could have done it. But it is not, because we've got a bunch of other shit to cover. But also, the high holidays have moved on the calendar. Of course, Orthodox Christmas is presenting itself, rearing its head. It's true. So maybe speak a bit about the Holiday Spectacular to the uninitiated. Yeah. It's a non-denominational special. It just happens whenever
Corey: could have done it. But it is not,
Corey: Yeah. It's a non-denominational special. It just happens whenever we want. And I'll tell you why. Yeah. We
Corey: have no reason. It just happens whenever
Carter: happens whenever we want. it
Carter: yeah yeah which is basically our recording schedule uh
Corey: yeah which is basically our
Zain: speaking of someone who controls his own destiny uh jugmeet singh let's talk about it uh steven carter jugmeet singh is now out adding clarity adding definition adding certainty that his his i was gonna say his government for a second yeah uh
Carter: yeah uh
Zain: uh that his party the ndp will take down justin trudeau at the next confidence vote carter you
Zain: had charlie angus and others go on uh on on political talk shows provide that level of certainty you had jagmeet sing begin the week with a bit of a last week this is a bit of a flip floppy mealy-mouthed well all options are on the table now the ndp a week later have landed in the same position uh that many wanted them to be in which is definitive uh definitiveness a certainty and a clarity yeah
Zain: i mean analyze this as a strategic move for jagmeet sing right now has he has he boxed himself in uh as he didn't want to or is this the only choice he had because they'd continue pestering him, or even for an optimal strategic decision? I
Carter: I think at this stage, he had no problem doing it, because it's highly likely that we're not facing a resumption of parliament on schedule. I think that it's...
Zain: You mean back in January when... Yeah, I think that we're
Carter: when... Yeah, I think that we're highly likely to be seeing some sort of activity where Justin Justin Trudeau is proroguing Parliament to enable a leadership for the Liberal Party. I think that that's probably the most likely outcome. And I think that that makes it very easy for Jagmeet Singh to say, at the next opportunity, I promise to do something. And knowing in his heart, as he does, that that promise is pretty lukewarm. It's not much of a definitive
Carter: definitive statement when you know that you're not going to have to actually worry about it until the very end so tell
Zain: the very end so tell me this you say it's a strategic move tell me if i'm putting words in your mouth you say it's a strategic mood but that comes with minimal or no risk no risk is that fair no
Carter: risk no risk is that fair
Carter: fair no
Carter: no
Carter: no risk it's not like it's not like this is going to happen in the fourth week of january where all of a sudden the the you know the conservatives are going to have an opposition day first of all um the opposition day can be put at the end of the at the end of the session opposition opposition days they don't have to be in any random order by set by the government uh so that they come early and the second thing is i i'm like 85 certain that we're going to do a uh um a
Carter: prorogament prorogament prorogation prorogation
Zain: prorogation prorogation prorogation yeah that's
Carter: that's what i meant to say prorogation yeah um that uh begins uh that that sees us not not head back into the house of commons until uh after leadership uh for the okay i'm glad i'm glad you i'm
Zain: the okay i'm glad i'm glad you i'm glad you put this on the table because at some point i want to get your guys's map this out for me now that sing has said this what does this mean for trudeau doesn't mean is like i want to get to that in a second but give me a because if we go there we lose sing in the mix so cory give me your comments on sing in particular and then let's go to what does this naturally kind of mean like where do the dominoes fall sort of thing add some clarity for us between the two of you but cory your thoughts on jagmeet singh first well
Corey: well my first thought when it happened on friday was you you couldn't fucking find this most obvious position to take on monday like it took you four days to get here that's pretty pitiful
Zain: monday like
Zain: pitiful
Corey: pitiful you're
Zain: you're talking about the previous monday not like delaying it for some reason yeah yeah
Corey: delaying it for
Corey: yeah yeah no no i was when when trudeau's own finance minister is saying hey this isn't really working for me the ndp couldn't come to that very obvious conclusion and he gave just just the absolute weakest, oh, all options are on the table commentary. And then you saw members of his caucus be more definitive. And then you saw some of that definitiveness almost walked back by the party. So it became clear that he was- Yes, it did. In
Zain: saying hey
Zain: So
Zain: that he was- Yes, it did. In between the Charlie Angus- Absolutely. So that's
Corey: Absolutely. So that's interesting to me too, right? And I think that that really brings in the point that I want to make, which is it tells us that the NDP caucus was probably a little bit divided on this. There were clearly hawks in the NDP caucus and doves in terms of bringing down the federal government. I'm not really sure. It certainly seems like Singh was a dove, but I don't know. Ultimately, he did end up on the right position. But now, more
Corey: more than anything,
Corey: want to know what that conversation looks like in the NDP, where there was any doubt as to whether they should take this approach or not.
Corey: And you know there had to be that conversation, because otherwise you wouldn't see people reigning in like that. You wouldn't see them pulling back from a position they're going to land on just a couple of days later. And that's really interesting. That maybe suggests that Singh is not as
Corey: in command maybe as – sometimes we just assume he is because he's a leader and we don't hear the same leadership drama about the NDP as we hear about the liberals. But it's worth watching and it maybe suggests that he's not entirely driving the bus on this or in classic NDP fashion, there's like 10 bus drivers that are all sitting there.
Carter: bus drivers that are all sitting there. Everybody's driving the bus. Yeah.
Zain: Yeah. Corey, can you hold on to the rest of your thought? Carter, which do you think is more likely? Singh is not in control that there's a – to use Corey's analogy that there's several bus drivers on said orange bus.
Carter: I think that there's probably more bus drivers. I think that Singh is in control. If he wasn't in control, there would have been – they
SPEAKER_00: Singh
Zain: Singh
SPEAKER_00: Singh
Carter: they wouldn't have tried to walk back the caucus statements. The caucus statements would have been definitive and just left out there. I think that they're trying to appease the leader and respect the leader in a way that you wouldn't necessarily see the liberal caucus trying. Corey,
Corey: let's expand this, right? So the NDP, four days after it was obvious to everybody that this had to be their position, makes it their position. They stay in the confidence and supply agreement a year beyond when it's obvious to everybody they need to start finding an exit point from it. They're seeming to be very slow on reacting. And this in particular, I think, for me has crystallized this notion that one of their challenges is they can't move fast enough to keep up with politics. Like they might just have some kind of tactical problems at their heart that are not going to serve them very well in a 35-day election campaign. So they better fucking figure out a military footing for this thing. They should have done it long ago, because they seem a step behind. I think that's my observation of the NDP. Yeah,
Carter: Yeah, I think it's called electile dysfunction. function
Zain: unrelated pretty good come on zane come on hey zane zane zane zane get
Carter: unrelated pretty good come on zane come on hey zane zane zane
Corey: zane zane get it you can't maintain an election yeah i know that's good stuff i get it oh
Zain: you can't
Carter: can't
Zain: can't
Carter: can't
Carter: good stuff
Corey: oh god
Carter: god we're
Carter: great are
Carter: are you
Zain: you
Zain: you yeah i think you guys are pretty
Carter: guys are pretty
Zain: hack something
Zain: something honest i feel like the two of you really bring the show down um oh
Carter: something honest
Carter: oh it's hurtful uh
Zain: okay cory carter's kind of given me his take at least for the first bit of of it what's the natural sequence of events now from
Zain: here yeah from here now that Singh has put himself on the record saying ah next opportunity I get I'm gonna do this our party's gonna do this to be clear yeah
Zain: yeah which means take down the government what is down the most likely sequence of events well and in fact they've said no matter who
Corey: who the
Zain: the
Corey: the leader
Zain: leader is
Corey: is
Zain: is right yes yes they have they have thanks for adding that detail so it's not like if Trudeau replace gets replaced they're gonna do it now they could anyone
Corey: for adding that detail so
Zain: anyone could walk anything back at any point to be clear but But knowing that they've put this in the front window, the NDP, walk me through what you think the most likely sequence of events are now for Justin Trudeau. Like, for example, over the weekend, there was rumors that today was the day.
Zain: Now we're seeing reporting come out from the Globe that today Trudeau won't step down over Christmas. So today's not the day, folks, right? Christmas is not the day. So walk me through, in your mind, where we're at in this sequence and what you expect.
Corey: Yeah, I think, well,
Corey: well, let's run two scenarios. One is Trudeau is planning to stick around for some indeterminate amount of time, and one is he's not. If he is planning to stick around, Carter has laid it out pretty cleanly there. The fact of the matter is the House will come back.
Corey: There will be confidence votes that can be constructed out of moments like budget. But otherwise, you can just push all of those opposition days as late as you want, as late as you can, and buy yourself the time and just know that it's all going to end in the spring, right? You're going to have a spring election and you start gearing yourself accordingly. You try to make sure that you've got all of those budget goodies ready to go. You're building everything entirely through that communications lens. And you just say, this is the end of this parliament. Maybe there's some faint hope that you can get the Bloc Quebecois to give you a couple more months. But I don't know if that's particularly wise going into an election when they're your primary opponents in, well, maybe you flatter yourself as the liberals to call yourself the Bloc's primary opponents at this point. But it doesn't seem like it would be a particularly wise idea to show the bloc as effective just before you go shilling for votes in Quebec. So that's the scenario. I think you just you know, this election is probably coming at the latest in February, in that even if they've pushed the opposition days as far as they can, if
Corey: he's resigning, which I still believe is probably the most likely outcome here. I mean, we've even jumped over because it's no longer interesting or surprising, but the Ontario caucus apparently came to a consensus of the 51 people that they want to move on from Trudeau and that this was supposed to be delivered.
Zain: of the 51 people
Corey: He doesn't have any support anymore. That's clear. Not enough to be considered a politically viable person. And even if he went into an election, the fact that his own caucus has now done these things, isn't that just the conservative campaign ad? I mean, they're going to have 100 campaign ads, but that's certainly going to be a damning one. So I think he goes, and then I think he does prorogue. There
Corey: There is an open question how that prorogation goes. I believe it would be given, but that's not 100% certain. And then I think we end up with a late spring election in that everybody's already staked their ground. There's a new leader. Let's just say for fun, it's Chrystia Freeland. She comes in, introduces a throne speech and a budget. It all falls on that right away, off to the races. Boom, there you go. So that
Corey: to me is probably the timeline. It does not seem likely to me at all at this point that we're going to have an October election unless it's one hell of a prorogation, like a very long one that would be very
Zain: very long one that would be very
Carter: very dubious.
Corey: dubious.
Corey: dubious. And
Zain: dubious. And you guys – Corey, last episode, which I believe was Patreon, you played out the scenario that I asked you to help me with, which was Trudeau wants to stay for G7, which
Zain: which is a very late prorogation. um you but you also mentioned as a footnote that that would be terrible for the country and very hard to justify uh so
Corey: is a very late
Corey: so to speak yeah at this time if he wanted to construct it just to summarize what was behind the paywall there he doesn't resign until after the um the moment of crisis with tariffs with the united states passes at least the immediate moment right so it's all of a sudden you're in february then you prorogue and
Corey: you don't say the rest
Zain: say the rest don't say the rest We want them to pay for it. That's all we have to pay for. Yeah, we want them to pay for it. That's right.
Corey: them to pay for it. That's all we have to pay for. Yeah, we
Corey: That's
Corey: That's right.
Corey: Strategistpatreon.com, $6 a month. Access all of that rich strategist content. Cheap motherfuckers. I'm forced to
Zain: to do other gigs.
Zain: Unspeakable things because you don't support the Patreon. Hey, Carter. So Corey's saying late February, spring, but putting October, which by the way, coincidentally, we may have talked about this on the show, is the exact same day as Alberta municipal elections. Putting that pre-determined October day aside, saying very unlikely. Are you with them there? Yeah. Start backwards. Do you think October's likelihood is now diminished even further than when we last spoke? I think
Carter: I think it's near zero now, the probability of getting an election at that particular moment in time. I know that my initial planning for the municipal elections in Alberta had, you
Carter: know, that is a big asterisk. Like, what's going to happen? How does one manage that? And now I'm far less concerned. I think that we'll be in a much stronger position where we won't need to worry about a federal election. It'll be its own thing that
Zain: federal election. It'll be its own thing that day. It'll be its own thing. It'll be its
Carter: thing. It'll be its own election, which makes me much, much, much, much, much more comfortable. But, you know, never say never. It still could turn into a problem, but I just don't think that it's in anybody's interest to make it into one.
Zain: Any of the beats that Corey's laid out with the two tracks that bother you or that you disagree with or are you largely on the same page as him with the Trudeau stay track, Trudeau leave track and the rough timelines and the steps in between prorogation and other? No, I'm
Carter: No, I'm right where he is. I think that there is an open question as to when
Carter: when does the
Carter: actual campaign start, right? If Trudeau sticks around, I think we're in a campaign before the end of March. I think that can be delayed for a little while. But if Trudeau leaves, then I think we're in a campaign probably at the end of April or early May, maybe as late as mid-May or late May. I
Zain: want to come back to the liberal caucus in a second. McCrory, can we talk about conservatives with Carter's point here being what we want to jump off on, which is how should they be thinking about the campaign now? Would you advise them as soon as the Christmas break is done to start with their planned attack on Trudeau, hold back, see what the action and activity is? Do you still want to play about the ghost of Trudeau even if he ends up leaving? How do you start thinking about some of these things, right? right? Because there's going to be a bit of dynamism on the liberal side. I'm not saying dynamism is going to be necessarily positive for them, but some change could happen. How, as you as a conservative, thinking about that right now, if you were heading up the strategic side of that operation?
Corey: You go, you just go. You've got to put your ads out there. You start thinking about them in terms of constructing them in a way that it's not just about Trudeau, but it's also about his party. And there's ways you can build that that says, you know, Trudeau and the liberals have done this. If you think Chrystia Freeland is going going to be the next leader maybe she shows up more prominently in there but there's no yeah obviously anything that you stick to exclusively justin trudeau has a risk of going away but i don't i don't know i don't think that that's necessarily how anybody would be thinking about it at this point and certainly when you look at the comments made by pierre pauliev recently they seem to be preparing for a different event than the one they were previously planning for right yes they're saying just call the election let's just have this election But with Trudeau
Zain: Trudeau in place, to be clear, the subtext of that.
Corey: be clear, the subtext
Corey: Would you be going
Zain: Would you be going as far, Corey, and Carter, I'm going to get you in on this too, with both of your experiences on campaigns as to cutting ads about Freeland or Carney or others that could take on and testing those or not even test them, but it's just getting in the process of running a small but parallel campaign for others so you could build on it. You're not starting from zero and caught flat-footed. Even with your 20-point lead, you could be caught flat-footed with who the next leader might be.
Corey: don't know if I would go. I would have ideas. I would have almost like a notebook of here's how we're going to deal with them. I think it's way too early to put too much time and effort and certainly production into the specific members. Although, depending on how things unfold, if some of the targets are potentially ministers, and those ministers are out there and active, it might not hurt to kind of poke them a little bit. But you're also thinking, who
Corey: would you be the best opponent absent Trudeau for you to run against there? And you're going to try to, as much as you can without getting called on it, put your thumb on the scale and try to make that the situation you want. But, yeah, in general, you've
Corey: got to think about it in terms of risk at this point, right? You start putting bets that it's Freeland or Carney, and Carney or Freeland doesn't win, maybe even in part because of your actions. Well, then you've done yourself a bit of a disservice. You go all in, it's going to be one of them, and you're right. That's fucking awesome, for sure. Sure. But I think a prudent approach would be just to hit the targets more generally, right? Just to go after the Liberal Party more generally, talk about the Liberal caucus, talk about Trudeau's handpicked team, which includes these individuals, right? And have a list of them rather than starting to... I
Corey: just think it would be very risky to start picking who you think is going to win.
Zain: Carter, what are you doing if you're the Conservatives right now, heading into the first part of Q1, or even over the break, in terms of thinking time? I'm taking
Carter: I'm taking the gloves off. I'm going as hard as I can against Trudeau. There is no... um,
Carter: um, Trudeau is still going to be the most identifiable figure. And if you can get people with a feeling in their mouths or, you know, a taste in their mouths from Trudeau, that is this really negative thing, that's a win for you. You don't need to have that taste be associated with specific replacement. It's just making them, making Canadians feel bad about Trudeau is, uh, still a very viable um technique that you can use in order to ensure that you're going to be successful as the uh campaign unfolds and now you know you know that the campaign is going to unfold next
Carter: next you know in the next little while it's it's not a
Carter: campaign that's going to unfold at some point in the next year it's now a campaign that's going to unfold at some point months next next weeks yeah in the next few weeks and in the next couple of months that changes everything in your campaign strategies right now you're you're pulling out things you're making sure that you're you're hitting on all cylinders you're you're pushing forward um all those talking points
Carter: that's great for you um but you don't want there necessarily to be uh a gap right you want to make sure that you're you're you're you are running your election campaign starting now you don't want to wait and give them the opportunity to have a free field for three months. This is about a Liberal Party rebuilding. That's what that leadership is going to be classified as. Don't let it be classified as that.
Zain: Corey, can I take us back? I'll keep it on the Polyav train for a second. Take us back a few steps to what you said around his most recent comments on calling an election. So he made the case this past Friday, we're recording here on Monday, that when you add up the Conservative bloc NDP MPs who are now indicating they've lost confidence in the Prime Plus, the dozen or so liberal MPs pushing for a new leader, it counts up to 70% of parliamentarians, and which is why he's calling the GG to asking her to reconvene parliament and require a non-confidence vote. Now, it's been told by experts that the actual ask he's making, no mas, like not going to happen. It's not going to happen. But from a comms rhetoric strategic point of view, the actual reality of what one can do versus what one should do is different. Do you like this move by Pierre Polyev? Do you like this line of thinking? Do you like this strategy by Pierre Polyev? It's not necessarily new, but it's a bit creative in a sense, and I thought it'd be worthy of our commentary for half a second. Carter, to you right after Corey. Yeah,
Corey: It's not going to happen. But
Corey: look,
Corey: I'll say that Pierre Polyev is pretty good at communications and pretty good at political strategy. He's shown a lot of adroitness in boxing people in, making them in the awkward position. He's tortured Jagmeet Singh over the past couple of months on this point, in my opinion. And he knows where this is all going. He absolutely understands that the very next step is to prorogue Parliament if there's a new leader, or to try to avoid a confidence vote for as long as possible. So he's going to rely on the fact that our system is very arcane to most Canadians. And they're going to say, well, yeah, he clearly doesn't have the confidence of the House. And most Canadians will not get into the nuance of, well, but technically, you know, it has to be tested in these ways. And the prime minister is supposed to be, his advice accepted until such a time as the confidence is proven, blah, blah, blah, right? Like that's all going to be lost on people. And what he's trying to create is a sense of illegitimacy of any actions that go on that further his government. And even though, of course, everyone can very quickly point to the Harper circuit breaker in 2008, where Harper had faced a very similar situation, the House had expressed outside of the House that they didn't have confidence in Stephen Harper. And Harper said, No, you know what, we're just gonna we're gonna put pause on this, we're gonna prorogue Parliament, that prorogation was accepted. And when the House came back, I mean, Harper was proven right, that it was actually just needing a cool down, and he was able then to govern. for the next couple of years. So yeah,
Corey: yeah, I think what he's trying to do is smart. I think he very much knows that no governor general is going to accept the leader of the opposition demanding these things. That's not how our system works. But a lot of Canadians will look at it and say, very reasonable argument, very reasonable argument, clearly doesn't have the confidence of the House. Let's get on with it.
Zain: Carter, give me your take on this move by Polyev. I
Carter: I think it's excellent. I mean, I think that, again, people don't necessarily understand how this will all work. But you want to be making statements as strong as you can. And one of the things that I advised a client just the other day was don't allow yourself in opposition or in any
Carter: any
Carter: any other position to be constrained by the reality of the situation. You don't need to be constrained by the reality of the situation. That's someone else's job. Pierre Polyev is going out there and not worrying about being constrained by the situation. He's just saying this should happen. And Canadians will come down on his side, never mind the historical precedent sent by Harper or anybody else, right? This isn't constrained by reality. This is constrained only by the rhetoric.
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Zain: Corey, here's the thing.
Zain: You mentioned this, I think one of the two of you mentioned this, and I believe it was you, that a handful, if not the vast majority of Ontario MPs or in a vast majority now, the Liberal caucus wants Trudeau to resign. That last quote is by Anthony Housefather, a Liberal MP.
Zain: You're a Liberal right
Zain: right now. You know that the Prime
Zain: Minister is either, based on our analysis, going in February, going in late spring to an election. Are
Zain: you rushing to a mic, to a Twitter account, to something to let people know that you are not in on this guy, to historically be on the record here is there any because i bet a lot of mps are going to weigh this over the over the christmas holidays being like do i need to fucking just be on the record and i might do i do i just need to get out there do i need to tweet do i need to just do some fucking shit so people know i'm one of those people i'm part of the vast majority so that i can for
SPEAKER_00: over the
Corey: the christmas
Zain: for my conscious for my political upside for whatever reason ensure that i let people know that Justin Trudeau and me are a no-go. What do you think if someone were to call you up and say, Corey, what should I do?
Corey: Let's
Corey: Let's be really clear. The only purpose of that is to try to get a change in leadership to fundamentally change your electoral situation. If you are delusional enough as an MP to think, I can run against my party and the voter is going to distinguish between me and my party, you are welcome to just go hang out in the graveyard with every other politician who's thought that down the road absent some very very minor exceptions to that rule people in politics are self-delusional and they believe that their brand overpowers the leader's brand overpowers the party's brand it doesn't it doesn't and you out there and you talk about how you are so distinguished and you are so different from these people you are it's not going to work for you it just doesn't work for you i can think about so many situations where a candidate has thought they're a special fucking snowflake and has a different sign or the sign doesn't have the leader's name and their literature looks different and it doesn't mention the leader or even talks about some of the ways they've held their own leader to account and you know what you're doing you're just reinforcing the problems with the leader the problems with the brand the problems with the party it doesn't work it it's not even game theory where you move first and you get the benefit and
Corey: and the bigger benefit would be staying together it just doesn't fucking work you don't get to run against your party. They're
Corey: They're not voting for you. They're voting for the leader. They're voting for the party. You're such a small part of the equation. And the more that you just exacerbate those pain points, I firmly believe you are losing twice as many votes as you gain with any step of independence like that. Corey's
Zain: Corey's
Zain: Corey's advice, Stephen Carter, is to shut the fuck up this Christmas. Would you double down on what Corey Hogan and his analysis and his, you
Zain: you know,
Corey: know, my slightly bastardized take on his outcome or is his recommendation. Do you agree with Corey? If you're
Zain: you're a single shingle MP from wherever that running to a mic is a selfish act, but more so a strategically silly one?
Carter: No, I don't think, I think that Corey is going a little bit further than what you were suggesting in the question. And that is, you know, should
Carter: I run against him in the election? Right now, I think that the most important thing is that Trudeau
Carter: stepped down.
Carter: And in order to get to the place where Trudeau steps down, there
Carter: there may need to still be some sort of action by his MPs to ensure that he
Carter: he doesn't just delay. We've talked about how he's been able to delay and wait and slow down. He should have left Wednesday. He didn't have a mandate after Wednesday once he got kind of destroyed in his caucus meeting. But he didn't because he knew he we needed to survive another day. And then he brings a brand new cabinet in. I mean, this is a man whose entire
Carter: entire strategy for the last several months has been just survive, just survive for another day. And so I think that there needs to be some sort of pressure that is put on him in order to disappear.
Carter: And I think that that means running to a microphone or running to some sort of activity in
Carter: order to denounce him, to make sure that the pressure is being put on, not to to run your election against him, but instead to ensure that this isn't someone who comes back with a fifth life. Hogan,
Corey: Hogan, jump in. 100% agree. And obviously, I gave the weight of my last comments to don't do it for electoral purposes. But I did start like, hey, if you're trying to get rid of the leader, that's one thing. But if you think this is a successful electoral strategy, that's a different one. And yes, I do think that there needs to be a little bit of, you've got to take You've got to go out there and you've got to put yourself on a limb if you want to have a change in leadership. And certainly we talked about this on the Patreon and maybe even the episode before. A lot of people are going to give Trudeau the space of a couple of weeks to resign on his own terms. But if he doesn't, if he's still here in mid-January, those
Corey: those MPs who are right now asking the Ontario caucus chair to deliver a message nicely have to start not being so nice. they've got to raise the temperature and uh yeah like i totally agree with steven the way trudeau has approached the last couple of months from by-election failure to by-election failure black eye to black eye is kind of like uh adam sandler and his character in uncut gems or as we know it here dave colon uncut gems right it's just just like it's just like spinning plates just kind of can't just keep it going for one more just avoid that problem for one more day you know go Go to this other one. Just whatever you can do to just keep things moving. And it's going to work as long as you let it work. And the pressure needs to go up.
Zain: Was Kevin
Corey: Kevin Garnett
Zain: Garnett an uncut gem? I
Carter: I think, yeah. Yeah, he played Dave. Yeah,
Zain: he was Dave. Okay, that makes sense. That makes a lot of sense. Yeah, yeah. Then I was like, is that Kevin Garnett? It's like, no, it's Dave. Okay,
Carter: Dave. Okay, that
Corey: that makes
Zain: that's your advice for liberal MPs. I think it's solid advice. In fact, you could argue that liberal MPs right now could run to a microphone under the guise of I need Trudeau out and grab some attention for themselves and get on the record and keep pushing the tide so that it doesn't just stop here in a sense. Carter, would you be – just final question. Would you be active during the holiday break? Is
Zain: this a good – I've always wondered about this, right? Right. Like there's always a big sort of even when the three of us used to work together, there'd be clients would say, turn ads off on the holiday season. No one wants to talk about politics. So let's not do any activity. Like talk to me about this mushy middle when it's like a political I'm not talking about advertising per se. I'm talking about putting your political voice out there. Is this a good time to do any of that? Are people actually more available rather than less available? Right. Which is an argument that we've made in the past that people are more glued to their phones, not less glued to their phone people. You know, so I'm kind of curious if you were advising someone and if someone's like, yeah, I need Trudeau gone. I want them gone. Should I do it on the 26th? Like, does that make sense, Stephen? Or is everyone Boxing Day shopping? Is that even a thing? Should I do it on the – should I do it in one of these mushy middle days of the end of December? What sort of advice would you generally give around politicking when there's an active file like this at this time of year? Generally,
Carter: Generally, I'd say take the time off. Take the time you've got to recover.
Carter: In this particular situation, I think there is no time to recover. I think that this is the time to begin the recovery. So you must be pushing through this period. And there's two things that you can be doing really easily. One is working the phones to your colleagues. Understand what's going on across the country. and the second thing that you could be doing is uh raising money right the call that says you know i'm working really hard here to change the leader and i just need your 1500 in order to make sure that happens um you know i i know you don't like the leader here's a great way for you to participate in this is to help me by raising me some money uh so that i can survive and thrive heading into the new year when the leaders when we're going to have a leadership race um i need to get the money money in before the start of the next fiscal year, because once we get into the next fiscal year, you're going to want to make your donations to the leadership candidates that I'm going to make sure happens, because that's what we need is a real leadership race. I'd be pushing on the fundraising door. I'd be pushing on the organizational door. I'd be just going, going, going right now.
Zain: Hogan, what advice would you have for people?
Corey: The point about donations is really important. As somebody who's run a party office before, this is not a quiet time of year if you run a party office. You are pushing everybody to make those contributions at the last minute. Folks are so time
Corey: time-driven on those things. The idea that you can make a donation on December 31st and basically get that money back very quickly in the new year when you file your taxes because you've got these generous tax credits that go with it pushes a lot of activity around there. When you think about broader communications efforts and the notion that that you're going to go out there and try to change minds. The question, I always think this is an interesting question. I do because people will often talk about it in terms of should I be advertising
Corey: advertising or not? But that's not actually the question you have. Is it worth it at this price? Is it worth it relative to the other things I can do? I'll tell you, this time of year, very expensive time to advertise, right? And if you don't need to be paying to fight with the retailers during Christmas season, don't. It doesn't make sense.
Corey: On the other hand, if
Corey: if we're facing an election perhaps as soon as February, maybe
Corey: maybe even late January,
Corey: well, yeah, you probably can't take the Christmas break off. I'm sorry, right? Even if you don't have quite the same efficiency and your, I don't know, engagement per dollar is way worse, that's it. This is all the time you get. Time is your most precious resource at this point. You need to act accordingly there, right? So you've always got to consider it in the context of the, you know, the reality of the situation, as Stephen just put it in a different context. and the reality of this situation is there's
Corey: there's a lot of shit going on if you're the liberals you can't sit it out if you're the conservatives you can't sit it out if you're the new democrats you can't sit it out but you will sit it out because you'll realize two months from now that you shouldn't have sat it out and you're just gonna have to be active this christmas you're gonna have to do the things that politicians do before an election uh
Zain: cory before we leave the liberals and talk about our friend Matthias Louis-Gates. Talk to me about Christopher
Zain: Freeland.
Zain: This isn't classified as the long tail, but it's been a week, so this feels like the long tail of the letter.
Zain: How do you think her week is gone? We are hearing that obviously she puts out the letter. She gets the standing ovation. She shows up to the Liberal Christmas party. She's got a handshake line that's been reported to be as long, if not longer than the prime ministers himself. We've seen, not right through this, but we've seen what many have seen that this was both a resignation letter, but also a launch and kickoff letter to a leadership.
Zain: How's it going for one Krista Freeland-Corey? And any concerns you have with how she's played Tuesday onward?
Corey: onward? I
Corey: think it's going fucking great for her. She's rapidly getting to a point where she seems like the heir apparent and the obvious person to be the next leader even those small vignettes you were talking about like having the biggest line at the liberal christmas party those things matter when you're trying to build a sense of inevitability right like you're the only person out there there's stories that are coming out about how she's the supposed conscience of the liberal and they've accelerated
Zain: and they've accelerated the the publication of her book by the way their publisher has actually put that on a fast track to maybe it's already out i don't i think it's already out okay yeah it was supposed to be april it's now it was was like now two days ago that they came out with the book yeah
Corey: yeah it was supposed to
Corey: yeah so this is she is she's getting buzz built in all of the right ways but there is an interesting thing to say about this bus including by the way i should say sending emails to her supporters saying hey you know more to come basically oh i missed that part oh
Zain: by
Zain: oh i missed that yeah okay interesting uh
Corey: uh but what's interesting about it is none of it's in person none of it is i think her own face and her own voice it tends to to be other people's words or her own words in the written format. And at some point, she's going to have to push that next hurdle and go on. And I do think that there is a sweet spot there. And I'm not sure she's there yet. I'm not even sure it's I don't know if it's December, I think maybe it's January, but we'll see. But she needs to make sure that she's actually out there in a way that she's communicating in the ways that a prime minister communicates. Because I think that one of the fears that many people have about a freelance prime ministership is that she's not generally really considered the most natural communicator on
Corey: television, extemporaneously in crowds when she's talking to stakeholders. And she's going to have to show people that she can. But she's certainly building a lot of buzz right now. And at this point, you have to assume she's the odds on favorite. And by the way, we talked about this on pods over the past few months. She went from being seeming heir apparent to definitely not heir apparent. Yeah.
Carter: Yeah. And
Corey: And now she seems back to heir apparent to
Corey: to you
Carter: you
Corey: you can't even run in the
Carter: you
Carter: you
Carter: you can't
Zain: can't even run
Carter: run
Zain: run
Carter: run in the leadership can
Zain: can she can she wrap this up before it even starts and this being the like
Zain: like the leadership campaign like is there a world in which you're looking at this now as a strategist being like if she did these three things this fucking thing's over yeah
Carter: yeah i'm not sure she wants that um but perhaps she could i think that uh
Carter: walk
Zain: walk me walk me through why she doesn't want that i find that as interesting as I think Harris is a really good example
Carter: think Harris is a really good example of that. You need the time, you need the ability to stand up and differentiate yourself even further from the politician that you're leaving. I mean, she was his right hand for much of the last decade. aid. It's very easy to say, well, she's put a distance between herself and Trudeau because of the last week. But a week does not in any way, shape or form trump a year. So she's in a real position where she needs to, I think, continue to push her distance
Carter: from Trudeau by having a a serious campaign uh if i was working with her i'd be working to ensure that there were at least two other candidates that she could run against uh because the uh you know just being declared the heir apparent i think would just be a
Carter: a continuation of trudeau and puts her really into the uh into
Carter: into the john turner category what
Zain: do you think of that hogan yeah
Corey: i i have a hard time disagreeing simply maybe it's recency bias because the harris thing does provide an example Boy, wouldn't it be nice if you could create some senses of contrast?
Corey: I will maybe argue the counterpoint, which is Harris's challenge seemed to be there was no daylight between her and Biden. I don't know that Freeland has that problem right now, simply because of the way things ended. But
Zain: ended. But Carter's making the argument that that years that they had together overrides this past week. Would you disagree with that? Well,
Corey: Carter's making
Corey: Well, I get what he's saying there, but I think that that's not a fully complete analysis. I think that there is a reality that this is very different. Did you just call
Carter: call my analysis incomplete?
Corey: my analysis
Zain: analysis
Corey: analysis incomplete?
Zain: incomplete?
Carter: Yes,
Zain: Yes,
Carter: Yes,
Zain: Yes, you did. My analysis was incomplete. I'd say that was a suit-tie edition of saying something very simple. What the fuck
Carter: you did.
Carter: My analysis was incomplete.
Carter: -tie edition of
Carter: very simple. What the fuck is going on?
Carter: Okay, that's fine. That's fine. I'm fine with it.
Zain: that's
Zain: it.
Zain: Not for us, the hoodie and the mustache crowd. Nope. Nope. No. It seems like it undermines
Carter: Not for us,
Corey: seems like
Corey: undermines us. I just – I do think that attention is short and people will think about the last thing with a certain amount of – For
Corey: what it's worth, I tend to agree with you. Yeah, we tend to overthink how much people think about ministers of the crown. And their histories.
Zain: what it's worth, I tend to agree with you. Yeah, we tend to overthink
Zain: And their histories.
Corey: Yeah. She was not the – I mean she was the deputy prime minister. She was not the vice president. A vice president is different, right? A vice president is selected in a different way, has a different public persona, has a different role. She was the finance minister and a considered a really important minister. And I think Freeland even in the context of that relationship has spent a lot of time through proxies in the last seven days suggesting that their relationship was more of her being the guardrails. And the things that you liked about Trudeau were because she fought for them, you know, the way they stood up for Ukraine, for example, right? And the things that you had challenges with, like these GST giveaways, the deficit ballooning to crazy levels, well, she stood in the way of that. She did what she could to try to hold that back. So it's
Corey: an interesting story moment she's created in the last week. It's really fascinating to me. I don't know if Carter's ends up being more right because people just say, ah, yeah, she was still in Trudeau's cabinet. But I
Carter: people just
Zain: just say, ah, yeah, she
Corey: I don't know. It's not a given for me, and it would have been a given two weeks ago.
Zain: It's
Zain: Okay, guys, I want to talk about the U.S. Yes. So Donald Trump wants the Panama Canal back and he wants Greenland for himself. What are the chances, just to do this one as a quick over-under or even just a likelihood question, Carter, that after he gets bored with them that Canada might get both of them?
Carter: I think it's very high. I think at the very least we're going to get Greenland. I'm not sure he understands the investment that needs to be made into Greenland in order to ensure that it continues to be successful. I mean maybe he doesn't give a shit if it continues to be successful. But, you
Zain: sure he understands the investment
SPEAKER_00: investment
Carter: know, I'm not sure that taking on another territory like Puerto Rico and those types of, you know, costs, they're costly. It feels like the
Zain: feels
Zain: the
Zain: the Paul George trade. We could get something good out of this if we're just patient with the picks. And we could be the Sam Presti, Canada being that, of the G7. Do you feel the same, that Trump is a Russian buffoon running the New York or the Brooklyn Nets and is willing to do anything to pay a high price to get two assets that might
Corey: something good
Corey: might
Zain: might
Corey: might
Zain: might
Corey: might not
Zain: not necessarily
Corey: necessarily
Zain: necessarily be useful to him?
Zain: Can we zoom out? Yeah,
Corey: Yeah, I mean, honestly, the assets not useful to him point is a great one. But if we zoom out a little bit.
Zain: mean, honestly,
Zain: I want to zoom right past this. That's why I'm going very quickly. But yes, zoom out. Tell people what's going on. How dare you? nobody
Corey: knows what's going on this is part of our the guy's not even president yet he has threatened to send special forces into mexico violating mexican sovereignty he's certainly i mean we're all aware that he's talked about canada being the 51st state it started as a joke to joking not joking to clearly not joking in the way he talked about many canadians would be in favor of the idea and it's a good one he has now claimed the panama canal back that america had kind of given up its last rights to not last rights but you know in uh in the late 20th century and now the greenland thing which by the way came out in him appointing the ambassador to denmark yeah he's like this is my ambassador to denmark
Zain: like this is my ambassador
Zain: denmark
Corey: denmark
Zain: denmark blah
Corey: blah
Zain: blah blah blah he's
Zain: he's gonna get greenland back for me yeah
Corey: greenland back
Corey: yeah very end like oh and we're gonna need greenland it's it's essential i think he described it as like it's essential that america get greenland there are people who live there they don't want to be americans this This is crazy shit. It's like he's playing a computer game and he just sees a little territory over there with some resources he wants. He's like, oh, I'll just send the army or something. Like the world doesn't work this way, or at least it's not supposed to. And it's
Corey: it's wild. And then, of course, the named ambassador who –
Corey: To Denmark. Yeah, I couldn't even tell you who it is now. Basically quote tweets this and says like, oh, I'm looking forward to working with Denmark. Well, sorry, bud. Not anymore. Yeah,
Zain: couldn't
Carter: Yeah, it's going to be brutal. I'll
Corey: I'll be surprised if you're not expelled from the country before you get there at the right things. Yeah, they're going to try
Carter: things. Yeah,
Zain: Yeah, they're going to
Zain: try to get fucked very quickly. Yeah,
Carter: Yeah,
Corey: Yeah, and the
Corey: common thread, though, is like a shockingly expansionist U.S. policy for a guy who bragged so much about how he didn't send the army anywhere during his term, right? That he got out of Afghanistan, all of this. And the craziest thing is it's not even America's geopolitical adversaries or opponents or even the gadflies that are just bothering them. It's their fucking allies. I
Corey: mean, it's the four countries I mentioned, Canada, Mexico, Denmark, and Panama are all allies of the United States.
Carter: Not anymore. Yeah,
Corey: Yeah,
Carter: Yeah,
Corey: well, that seems to be the case.
Zain: Okay, so Matt Gaetz paid for sex and drugs while he was in office. Corey, the report is out. It is. Tell
Corey: Tell
Zain: Tell us what the report says.
Corey: And
Zain: And by the way, listeners might be like, wait, I don't want to talk about this. We'll need your help Because at the end of this segment We need to understand whether we should be paying For a cameo of Matt Gaetz to introduce the show That's been on the table for a long time Corey's been refusing it Carter and I have been very much in favor
Corey: And
Corey: And by
Carter: That's been on the
Carter: much in favor We
Zain: We were like, we need some white man energy here Who better than Matt Gaetz to intro the show
Zain: This may take a step back for us Today But we'll ultimately leave it to the listeners Carter,
Corey: Carter, I think maybe his vote is up for grabs here I don't think you've read the report, Zane I feel like you haven't read the report If you're still on Team Gates here. But yeah,
Zain: yeah,
Corey: yeah,
Corey: yeah, no, it's a rough report. It's a it's a rough read. It's basically, not only did he pay for sex, and not only did he do a bunch of drugs, but there was sex with a minor. And certainly it looks like a lot of people were taken advantage of over the course of those relationships. It's this guy was almost Attorney General.
Corey: Just, I can't even believe it. We're in we're in the darkest of timelines here. But yeah, I mean, I think that Gates, the very, the
Corey: the And it's been so obvious for so long what a dirtbag he is, but
Corey: it's
Corey: it's pretty clear now that there's just this record of dirtbag that's going to follow him forever. And hopefully it's the end of his career, although I fear in modern times it's not.
Zain: Yeah. I mean, which fucking assholes would buy cameos for him for a thousand bucks a pop to keep fueling his career? Okay. Okay. There you go. Carter. Carter. Let's do it because
Carter: to keep
Carter: career? Okay.
Corey: Okay.
Carter: because he's
Zain: he's
Carter: he's also been noted for buying Indian porn.
Zain: he's also been noted
Carter: So I see that as a positive. And you can get some extra money yourself. You mean subscribing, not
Zain: You mean subscribing, not buying. Okay, Carter, let's talk about this. You don't
Carter: Carter, let's
Carter: You don't buy it anymore in a DVD?
Zain: just let you hang on to that moment. Thank you
Carter: Thank you very much. That
Zain: much. That moment's for you. Thank you very much. Yeah, no problem. No problem. Why are you so uncomfortable? I'm not uncomfortable at all. Just embrace the silence, Carter. Carter, can we put all the shit that's happening in the U.S. into a bit of a package? Not all the shit, but some of the shit, right? So you've talked about the Matt Gaetz thing with the government shutdown, by the way. They avoided it. The terrorist stuff with Canada is still an active threat. The Panama and Greenland stuff, silly but not also not real, right? Like also like a real potential thing this guy may want. How are you processing this right now? I know like on the lead up to the election, you were – you would
Carter: no problem. No
Carter: uncomfortable at all.
Carter: also not real,
Zain: joke that you're making alternative plans. No, I have plans
Carter: No, I have plans to leave society
Carter: society because society could be destroyed. I
Zain: society because society could be destroyed. I
Zain: can't get a serious answer. Are you actually thinking about this? I do not get a sense. Do you want me to send you the spreadsheet
Carter: not get a sense. Do you want me to send you the spreadsheet with all the different things that I have to order in order to make sure that I'm ready to go?
Carter: I mean, this is, I am set. I am ready to hit the road.
Carter: Where are you going? I can't tell you that.
Corey: If he tells you that. Everybody
Carter: Everybody will go there. North, south, east,
Corey: North, south, east, west. Give me a direction. Yes. Oh, he's going west. He's for sure going west. I can't say that. Are you flying
Zain: a
Carter: a direction.
Zain: direction.
Zain: Yes.
Carter: Yes.
Zain: Yes.
Carter: say that. Are
Zain: Are you flying
Zain: flying or are you driving?
Carter: I can't answer that question.
Zain: Is it above ground or underground?
Carter: It's above ground. The bunker idea is just really, really dangerous.
Zain: So you're not, okay, so you're moving to a different, you're moving, you're moving. You
Carter: okay, so you're
Carter: You have to be, you have to be mobile. You have to be mobile. You can't be stuck in one place because then the raiders come. And
Carter: I don't mean the Los Angeles raiders or the Las Vegas raiders. I'm talking about the actual raiders that come and steal your food. Do I have any follow
Zain: steal your food. Do I have any follow-up questions for Carter? We rarely get personal on this show, but since I opened the door with my mustache, now we're going down Carter's. Yeah, now we're going deep into emotional rabbit
Corey: going deep into emotional rabbit holes here. Yeah,
Zain: here. Yeah, no, for sure. So Carter's going in a direction. There wasn't one point an offer. He's driving and flying, and it is above ground. Corey, do you have any follow-up questions? Either to reveal the location or to check in on Stephen Carter, our good friend. I
Corey: Carter's going in a
Carter: a direction.
Corey: direction.
Carter: There wasn't one point an offer.
SPEAKER_00: offer.
Carter: Stephen Carter,
Carter: Carter,
Carter: friend. I made the offer to Corey if he left his kids and wife behind that he could come too. We don't talk
Zain: talk
Carter: talk outside
Zain: outside
Carter: outside of
Zain: of the show. This
Carter: show. This
Zain: This is our only opportunity. He's
Carter: opportunity. He's thought about it. He's thought about it for quite some time. Lori, I think, has gotten to him.
Corey: Look, I think that one of the funny things about moments like this is there has been a moment before everything that has ever happened in the world that's terrible and was seemingly foreseeable, where people said, oh, it won't be that bad. It won't be that bad. Things will recede. It won't be as awful as you fear it might be.
Corey: But sometimes it is as awful as you fear it might be. And one of the things that worries me about this particular moment with the United States is almost like it's an odds thing. It's a probability thing. It kind of goes back in a know, funny way to one of the earlier points about like, how Pierre Polyev should approach an election.
Corey: If Donald Trump is creating this many potential flashpoints, and this many potential fires, and he's not even president yet, it makes me very nervous that one of these at some point in the not too distant future is going to go really
Corey: really off the rails. And we're gonna have a very serious situation at a time when the world doesn't seem well equipped for serious situations. situations governments everywhere in the western world in the democratic world are really struggling their popularity is very much in question we've got despots and authoritarians everywhere that are taking steps to undermine kind of this rules norms based world that we pretended we had for the past 30 years and i just don't think we're up for it right now and if you look at some of the commentary before some of the truly bad events in history before world war one before world war two too.
Corey: are so many people always who say, God, don't worry. Sanity will prevail. We're going to pull back from the brink. It won't be as nuts as you think it is. Sometimes it's as nuts as you think it is. And that's a sobering thought for me. And I do think that we need to be a lot more serious as a country. We
Zain: It won't be as
Corey: can't just drift the way we are. We can't be so distracted by the things we're being distracted by. And we've got to get serious in a big way, because
Corey: because we're in in serious times you
Carter: know what you and laurie can come but not the children
Zain: we're going to leave that segment there steven carter going to move it out to our over under our lightning round even if when we do this on a monday i don't know if you know this we do it
Carter: it for you really
Zain: really
Carter: really even
Zain: even on a monday absolutely when we're going to discuss all of the questions in our over under our lightning round about one topic which is steven carter the justin trudeau darkest hour cabinet shuffle he
Zain: adds he adds eight new members of parliament to this cabinet yeah uh carter over under on c okay
Zain: over under on c there's a there's b there's c uh is over would be above a c yeah
Carter: yeah i'm getting it below would be would be under would
Zain: below would be would be under would be below like a d or an
Carter: like a d or an f yeah exactly
Zain: exactly is this the c team over over
Zain: under steven oh
Carter: oh it's definitely under okay
Carter: so it's not the c it's not the c team it's It's way down there. This is a team of people who thought
Carter: thought to themselves, you know what? This
Carter: title is forever.
Carter: This title is forever. As discussed
Zain: discussed on the most recent episode. I think that's going to be it.
Carter: on the most recent episode. I think that's going to be it.
Zain: So Carter says this is a under on C team. Corey, you saw the list. You saw the people. Some familiar faces, of course, still in cabinet.
Zain: But
Corey: But new
Zain: new faces, eight new MPs
Corey: MPs
Zain: MPs being added to
Corey: to
Zain: to that list over under on C, Corey Hogan. I
Corey: it's over. I think you're being a little uncharitable, Stephen. even. The MPs are not bad people or bad picks. I think, well, they're not the C-team. I think that the liberals have become the C-team.
Carter: And
Corey: And maybe that's a distinction without a difference, but they're so distracted. They can't get the ball in hand. They can't drive it down the court. They can't shoot straight. So, I don't know. They're not bad, but somehow the whole is worse than the parts, and the parts are fine.
Zain: Oh, wow. Corey
Corey: Corey trying to escape
Zain: escape oh my god this was another suit and tie analysis fucking get bloody
Corey: fucking get bloody
Zain: bloody cory can i ask you a question here who do you talk about the c team you talk who do you hate the most on cabinet i
Corey: i ask you a question here who do you talk about the c team you talk who do you
Corey: i don't hate any so this is my point like who do you think besides for obviously freeland should be in cabinet that's not in cabinet and so i think that's why it's like for me it would be the c team if like a whole bunch of potential leadership contenders had taken an off ramp and said you know what we're
Zain: don't hate any so
Corey: we're out we're going to start negotiating or organizing from the outside yeah
Carter: yeah but
Corey: but
Corey: but that didn't happen like you've still got all of your more seasoned cabinet ministers you put in a couple of interesting pieces like it's it's fine like as far as the liberal caucus goes it doesn't seem like it's the c
Carter: in
Zain: c team to me so so carter you're you're a supporter of moving on to the next question you're supportive nathaniel arsken smith right
Zain: you you like his renegade style i'm different i'm i'm i'm you you can't expect me to to, in terms of what I'm going to do. I've got my own podcast. I'm an MP. Like, I'm different. I'm supposed to be different. Are
Zain: Are you in or out on him taking a cabinet position? I'm out.
Carter: I'm out.
Carter: Like, this is not the time to be taking that type of position. I think that I'm told there are people who said no. I think that this would have been the time to say no if I was Nate Erskine-Smith.
Zain: Corey, this is a guy who's built his own brand in some ways. He's kind of like been the renegade inside the party uh annoying some uh you know but also being the voice that many said oh i wish i could do what you do as we've heard historically also ran for the ontario liberal leadership um while he was uh was was was in the trudeau um
Corey: um
Zain: um caucus are
Corey: are
Zain: are
Zain: are you in or out on him taking the uh the the ministerial position in this case housing um in or out on aiderskin smith i
Zain: think i'm
Corey: i'm in um the question you have to ask yourself when you're talking about the brand that he's built, is he built it to what end, right? If this was his goal all along, why would you not take the job?
Corey: It's not looking like you're going to get a better opportunity to do it in the next, I don't know, four plus years at this point. This is probably the last train that you can hop on if you want to be the minister of something. So why the hell not? Even if you only have it for a couple of months, you can then spin it forward as, yeah, I was the guy who was really pushing on these issues. I kept talking about it. I was that maverick. It seems like a guy like me would I would never be invited in the cabinet, but I'm so fucking awesome. They put me in cabinet anyways, and it didn't last very long. But you know what?
Corey: I got there. I think you could, if you're a guy like him, spin that. Corey,
Zain: you are invited to the next liberal cabinet retreat. It happens very, very quickly into the into the new year. They asked for the two smartest people on the strategist. And of course, I was on a shoot that day. So so you and Carter had to go. Corey, you are given an opportunity to give a word of advice to the new liberal cabinet. cabinet. What
Zain: is it?
Corey: Just one word. A
Zain: A
Zain: A word of advice can be extended to how often at weddings and formal events saying now a couple of words from this person. So you can give a word of advice but give some advice to these folks. You
Corey: word of advice can
Corey: you
Zain: can start with a word and expand on it. Am I like locked into trying to keep them with their existing leadership? You are giving this new cabinet appointed by Justin Trudeau a word of advice. I'm not telling you more.
Corey: like
Corey: You are a minister of the crown and you are a representative of the people you are not a minister of justin trudeau and a representative of trudeauism and then you know just let it flow from there like figure out what you fucking got to do but go do the right thing carter
Zain: carter you are then brought into the room it's a quiz show yeah you've got headphones on in a in a in a booth and there's no cheating there's no john torturo character who played dave on that yeah
Carter: yeah um
Zain: um you then walk in and uh you give a word of advice to this new Justin Trudeau appointed Liberal cabinet. What are you saying? I'm
Carter: I'm saying that it's not going to be about you for the next six months. It's going to be about the leadership candidates in the election.
Carter: So keep a low profile. You have been appointed by a guy who's on his way out, on his way up. And this means that you don't get to be the star. You have to make sure the government functions, government functions properly, but don't be thinking that you're going to be the star of, you know, media releases and media opportunities for the next few months.
Zain: We're gonna leave it there. That's a wrap on episode 1843 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Velgey. With me as always, there's of course, Corey Hogan, and Stephen Carter. And we shall see you next time for what we would imagine would be the holiday spectacular.