Zain: These are the strategists episode 1841. My name is Zain Velji and with me as always for this emergency episode, Corey Hogan and there's a great Stephen Carter. Guys, most of our episodes are evergreen. They last for a long time. You can pick it off the shelf at any point. Wisdom available. This one, maybe
Corey: You can pick it off
Corey: any point.
Corey: This
Zain: maybe not so much because we are doing
Corey: because we are doing an emergency episode
Zain: episode
Corey: episode
Zain: episode because,
Corey: because, Corey, what
Corey: what do we have to talk about? It's a hot banana in the sun, Zain. That's the go-to metaphor for me. Wow,
Zain: Wow,
Corey: Wow,
Carter: Wow, that's great.
Zain: that's
Zain: That's not bad. I call it the ideal, the model way to quit, which is give your boss the middle finger, flip over his desk, and leap through the window with a parachute. Stephen Carter, Christopher Freeland has done all of that. Yeah,
Carter: Yeah, and more.
Zain: more. And
Carter: more.
Zain: And more with the letter. Okay, we want to talk about the resignation of Christopher Freeland as finance minister. We want to talk about the swirling rumors, and this is very important. We're recording at 1.50 p.m. right now, Mountain Time. This is 3.50 p.m. Eastern. So none of this could
Zain: could be – There's
Corey: There's a good chance by the time I post this, it's totally irrelevant. Also,
Zain: Also, that's not what I meant. I meant none of this could be good. Sorry, you're just interrupting this. It's going to be irrelevant, but it may also not be good. Early takes
Corey: It's
Corey: Early takes are the best takes, Zane. It's what's really in our heart.
Zain: Stephen Carter, let's talk to me about this letter. It's a one-pager by Christopher Freeland. Here are the beats. um you told me prime minister uh to take on another cabinet position on friday i'm now saying i can't do that my only path is to resign you're doing a lot of political gimmicks with my portfolio i don't enjoy your full confidence see you the fuck later also this happens to be the day that i deliver the fez p.s i'm running in the next election did i miss anything
Corey: anything no
Zain: no
Corey: no there's one thing that you you didn't miss but you kind of breezed over and i want to just stop for a minute tariff Yeah, she has a bit of a list of the various things that she thinks Canadians need at this particular moment. And then goes on to say, I think Canadians would appreciate if a government addressed these things and took these actions. I know Canadians would recognize and respect such an approach. But there's such an approach that she lists ahead of time includes things like working in good faith and humility with the premiers. years so this i've never seen a letter with so much subtext and actually i gotta tell you one of the things that i just love as a comms professional is she's really showing the power of the written word and like very carefully choosing words for maximum intrigue maximum damage maximum discussion she has crafted in one page a real masterpiece of a very professional go fuck yourself justin oh
Carter: oh yeah oh
Zain: oh this this is this is probably one of the best if we make a coffee table book, which we will, of Go Fuck Yourselves. We'll obviously have some of the classics. This is the cover, though. This might be the cover.
SPEAKER_00: We'll
Corey: We'll obviously have
Corey: This is the cover, though.
Zain: Certainly, Carter, it will be in a
Corey: Certainly,
Zain: worksheet that people can have, because it's, of course, going to be a coffee table book where you can detach it and do your own fuck you letters. Stephen Carter, here's
Zain: here's the thing. Here's
Zain: the thing. Let's talk about the content of her letter, sure. But I also want to talk about the strategy energy of her letter, because she has caused maximum chaos. And the question I have for you before you talk about this is, if you were strategically advising her, could she have done it in any other way to create more maximum chaos? Or was this a masterclass, not just in content, but also in strategic execution?
Carter: Well, I think that I don't think that there was any way of causing more chaos, but was it intentional? I think that yes, on some levels, it was intentional because she
Carter: she could have resigned tomorrow. She could have sucked it up for a little while and done her economic update. She chose to go today. That has put the prime minister on the back foot, to say the very least. The entire government is, frankly, on the back foot. And this is the signal to the rest of caucus, to the rest of government, that things are way worse than perhaps anybody had thought. lot uh you know the rumors that came out last week about how christopher freeland and
Carter: and the prime minister weren't getting along you
Carter: you know we talked about how there was probably some truth to those rumors um but now we're we're really seeing the depth uh
Carter: uh that that that that conflict has and
Carter: and uh you know this is the danger of telling someone they're out of cabinet too um before
Carter: before just moving them out of cabinet i think this is a a major major blow uh to to justin trudeau and i don't I don't think it could have been struck with that. There's strategy questions
Zain: There's strategy questions
Zain: questions on both sides, his strategy, and did he screw this up, and her strategy, and did she nail this? Corey, respond to her strategy first. Did she just nail this from a strategic perspective if her goal was pure chaos and maximum hurt and pain for the PM? Well,
Corey: Well, Zane, I
Corey: think that I would agree that this is about as good as it gets, and I'll tell you why.
Corey: Yeah, walk me through it. Because of the second part, the part that we'll get to in a minute here, but the
Zain: Yeah, walk me through it. Because of the second
Corey: the prime minister, I'm sorry, he did this to himself in the sense that he handed her the mother of all bats to hit him with. And so it's not the letter. It's the letter at this moment, and it's the letter at this moment with no notice, which causes the chaos, and that's what Sylvie thought about. On the day of
Carter: And so it's
Zain: On the day of the Fez. This is it. We'll talk about
Corey: This is it. We'll talk about the Fez in a minute here, right? But you have a situation where the opponent really handed you everything you need to make them really hurt about it. And so then she executed the tactics, I think, really well. I mentioned the written word that's there.
Carter: Great.
Corey: Great. I mean, really controlled her message going out like that. I think it was super smart of her not to put herself in front of a camera, let her words speak for themselves, let her friends and colleagues speak for her qualities. And, I mean, even Doug Ford today, which, by the way, some of the drama involved, all the premiers were meeting today as this is all going down. Look, you can't script these things. and um and so you know doug forrest saying like oh you know i really like christia i talked to her earlier today i put i put her on speakerphone so all the other premiers could talk to her too like imagine that like he's on speakerphone being like guys i'm not going to be around anymore and they're like don't go christian or whatever the fucking conversation was yeah it's crazy courtesy was not applied to the cabinet or the caucus one would imagine oh no oh no and you know so So that does, you know, letting it sit out there, let everybody react to you. Just even the message that she sent later or her team sent later when they asked, who's giving the update? Who's giving the FIS, the fall economic statement? And the response back is, I don't know, that's up to the prime minister or the Department of Finance. I think she ran until minutes before. Right. So it's just really
Zain: crazy courtesy was
Zain: oh no oh
SPEAKER_00: it's
Carter: it's
SPEAKER_00: it's
Corey: crazy and it's really big. But it would not have been possible without the prime minister and the prime minister's team having the absolute hubris, the total arrogance, the incompetence of firing her three days before she's supposed to give this update. That is unconscionably bad tactics there. And
Carter: And
Carter: And to what end? You know, like, you know, to the end that you're going to have a cabinet shuffle prior to Christmas? like we talked about whether or not the you know this could be done in the in the in early january of course it could be done in early january absolutely let her do the update and then take her knees out you don't have to take her knees out before christmas you
Carter: you grinch
Zain: grinch did did carney carney needs to be we'll talk about carney in a second because he's now also embroiled in this very directly um but carter i think there's cory's had a lot of you know statements around around incompetence, arrogance, etc., there's also just a pure miscalculation where Corey says that, you know, you've given the opponent everything that they need. Carter, it seems like one of the miscalculations was, is that as soon as Chrystia Freeland stepped into that room, virtually or over the phone or in person with Justin Trudeau, they never viewed her as an opponent, despite what the news was. Do you think that was the fundamental miscalculation? And is there a lesson to be learned here because i think there's something interesting and even how cory phrased uh his his comments so carter first i'll come to you cory well
Carter: very directly
Corey: directly um
Corey: despite what
Carter: well it's fascinating i mean this kind of core assumption that uh you can fire someone and have them not turn into your enemy that's
Carter: that's an interesting assumption i'm not sure that many people can make that assumption oh i just fired them i'm sure we'll be best friends and we'll probably still be invited to christmas any uh any
Zain: any uh any lived experience with this just on the okay okay good yeah no none um
Carter: um but the you know you can just fire someone and they're going to just be oh that was i was totally fine uh with getting removed from my position we talked about how few finance ministers move and now uh justin trudeau has moved two of them because he can't get along with them that
Carter: that to me is is insanity and christia freeland was so uh so so beloved early in her reign that she not only got uh finance minister she got deputy prime minister and
Carter: and the deputy prime minister is not a role that needs to be handed out you
Carter: you can not
Carter: not you know not have a deputy prime minister um but he handed it out because he thought so highly of her reputation and keep in mind at one point we were calling her the minister of everything right
Carter: right she was the person who was running the government and
Corey: and now
Carter: and now he's lost confidence in her and uh has has thrown her out and yes um her
Carter: her his team made a substantial miscalculation in thinking that hey they're they're just going to be best buds afterwards it's all going to be fine because christian will understand that
Carter: that just was apparently uh
Carter: uh completely wrong well
Corey: well that was insane and it
Corey: it would have been very different if it was clear that she wanted to do this update but we all knew we all knew from the reporting that was done last week she did not like she thought Thought that this was kind of a bad bag that she was being asked to hand to the Canadian people. And she did not want to do it. And then you fired her. And then she decided, well, I'm not going to give this update then. Why in the world would she give this update? I actually try to have a little bit of sense of what that parallel universe looks like. And it's actually ridiculously
Zain: done last week
Zain: that this
Corey: ridiculously embarrassing. You know, just imagine she didn't resign today. And then it came out later. She'd been fired, but she was asked to give that. Do you think all of it would have been, well, what a good soldier she was? No, it would have been like, fuck,
Zain: No, it would have been like,
Carter: like,
Corey: fuck, that's embarrassing for her. And I can't believe the prime minister asked her to do that. And the
Carter: the
Corey: the reporting would have been very different. And I don't think actually to the advantage of, well,
Corey: well, it would be better for Justin Trudeau than what he's got today. But I don't think it would have been a great story for either of them here. here so i i do not understand why they
Corey: thought like how delusional are they i'm just gonna say it that they thought they could fire her and that she would do this for them like in a way the fact
Zain: fact that they were scrambling
Corey: scrambling to the point that it wasn't clear who was going to give this update to the point where there wasn't somebody ready to give the update the media is the media order paper
Zain: media order paper say champagne and then bossano in that order and the latter of the two is comical because because he's not here he's not in cabinet but
Corey: but even if you know that sure the order paper is wrong You've got to have a plan. Totally. The media lockup
Corey: basically had to be rescheduled. It was like done and then gone and then back. Yeah,
Corey: I mean, they clearly weren't ready for this. And how can you not be ready for this considering everything we've just talked about? Carter, can
Zain: can we obsess about this a bit more? Because as we record now – Can we? Of course we can. 2 p.m. Mountain, 4 p.m. Eastern. In an hour, the Liberal caucus, not just the cabinet, is set to meet. So the in-person caucus meeting will happen at 5 p.m. Eastern. There could be developments there, many rumors, and we'll get to those in a second. But Carter, some things have already happened in this letter and this botched firing have already happened. So let's talk about that a bit more. Was this a strategic and tactical fail by the PMO or just one of the two? And the reason I ask this is because I want to examine when we talk about strategy and tactics what the difference is. But give me your take on this. And Corey, I'll ask you the same question and then the same elements of it for Christopher freeland although i think you've answered both strategic and tactical w for her but for the pmo carter was this just purely a strategy fail or both strategy and tactical fail i
Corey: record
Carter: record now – Can we? Of
Carter: i think it's a strategy and tactic let's assume that uh the decision had been made like just for shits and giggles mark carney's going to be your next finance minister um
Carter: um is there any particular reason to
Carter: to move this quickly does is there a strategic upside for pulling the trigger before christmas um
Carter: um you know Is there polling that you're going to influence? Are people paying attention? Is this going to be a major uplift for you? None of those things are. Could we be
Zain: Could we be missing something that the year-end gives them? I was racking my brain, too. Is there anything we could be missing?
Carter: we could be missing?
Carter: It's just another day in their calendar, right? It's not like you
Carter: you put Carney in there and then the fiscal year-end is going to change.
Carter: It's just another day. um
Carter: um i
Carter: mean i guess he would get a few more days with his briefing binder uh but let's assume that mark carney doesn't need a few more days with his briefing binder uh it just doesn't so the strategy of change um changing your primary we talked about how kind of fraught it is to change your primary finance minister um that it's not necessarily done and we went through the examples in the in our last episode now we're
Carter: we're seeing that why isn't it done well because you can lose the
Carter: the confidence of the entire the entire group the finance minister has been the one who is holding the reins so yes it was a strategic mistake to uh think well i can just move my finance minister and yes it was a tactical mistake to do so uh before the economic update and before uh christmas When, you know, you could have very easily done this in the early days, you know, between Christmas and New Year's, and the impact would have been far, far less, even if it had been to still the kind of colossal fuck up that we've seen unfold today.
Zain: Corey, strategic and tactical fail?
Corey: Yeah, for sure it was. The strategy, let's just put it this way. I am utterly befuddled why, and no slight against Mark Carney, because I actually have a lot of time for Mark Carney. I think he's a super smart guy. I think we would be very lucky to have somebody like him in politics.
Corey: He is not going to change your fundamental situation, right? If you were sitting there as a liberal brain trust and you're thinking, well, all we need is to get Mark Carney as finance minister and everything fucking changes.
Corey: I'm sorry. We're sitting here in an anti-elite movement moment, I guess I mean. And we're talking about putting the Bank of England governor in as the finance minister. What's that going to do? Like you're going to have people just –
Carter: Unelected finance minister.
Corey: Lighting their hair on fire. Exactly, Stephen. And it just it doesn't resolve the problem that's in front of you. It's like trying to solve a problem that you don't actually have. Yes, I agree that Canadians think you're not very good at the economy, but it's it's not actually a Christian Freeland thing. It's a Justin Trudeau thing. It's a liberal thing. And I don't think Mark Carney, his brand is so strong that it overwhelms those other two characteristics. That's my firm belief. leave. So strategically, the idea that all you need to do is turn around this government with Mark Carney, wrong,
Corey: wrong, wrong. You cannot show me any polling that would prove that to be the case. Tactically,
Corey: Stephen's already gone through it.
Corey: How do you do this right before the fall economic statement? How do you do this? How do you not wait until Tuesday? Even if she asked you Friday, hey, am I in or am I out? How do you not lie until Tuesday at this point? It's so crazy to to me that they did this to themselves and i think it's great evidence that this is not a government with its head on straight as if we needed more but this is just on top of the gst rebate which by the way started yesterday and nobody's even talking about because of this drama on
Corey: top of the talk about reversing the checks for 250 yes this
Corey: is not good does
Corey: does anybody in the world not realize this is not good nailed it this is not
Zain: nailed it this is not
Zain: not
Corey: not good hey
Zain: hey
Corey: hey k
Zain: k carter yeah
Zain: yeah before we before we leave freeland because i still want to walk through the carny door the pmo door and then the future state whatever the hell happens door um first
Zain: question on freeland when
Zain: do you pop your head back up and how oh
Carter: i'd take some time i mean absence makes the heart grow fonder i would i would disappear until probably mid to late january uh
Carter: uh really oh
Zain: really oh
SPEAKER_00: oh well
Carter: well
Zain: well
Carter: well when's the house gonna stop sitting tomorrow tomorrow
Zain: tomorrow tomorrow yeah
Carter: yeah i mean
Carter: christmas break baby go back to your riding uh go back back and to your real life uh figure out your head from your ass but no one everybody's going to want to talk to her she's going to be the most popular person uh in in Ottawa in probably in Canada for the next couple of days um but there's no reason to answer that call you'll
Carter: you'll still be one of the most important most powerful most popular people uh when you come back in January and now you'll have your story straight to Corey's point you know it's easy to put down the written word But sometimes it's hard to sit in front of a camera and answer the questions with the same rhetoric and capacity that that Chrystia Freeland answered, you know, wrote that letter. She'll come back. She'll be ready to answer those questions. She'll be 100 percent focused. She won't have the hurt. There was a couple of articles that mentioned her eyes tearing up over the weekend. end.
Carter: She'll be stealing and ready to go when she comes back in mid to late January and begins to answer the questions. Why did you knife the prime minister? And who do you think the next prime minister is going to be?
Zain: Corey, why don't you pop our head back up?
Corey: don't know. But I do want to bridge into that by saying the
Corey: strategy for her was great on a couple of levels. And I don't know what her plans are next. But we've
Corey: we've always said one of her problems if she wants to be the next leader is she's too close to justin trudeau too tight she just loyal everything
Zain: tight she just
Zain: just loyal everything
Corey: everything she does seems like it's a justin trudeau thing and you know we are usually the first to say hey the person who wields the knife does not get the crown that probably still stands to be the truth here
Corey: here too but dozens
Corey: dozens of mps have asked him to step down she's not the first and arguably he's the one who betrayed her in this particular move so she has managed to find a way with one play here to to extract herself from his shadow and make him look like the guy who shot first, which he was, let's be clear. But that absolves her of these steps that have come since then, at least to a degree. I'm not saying entirely, but at least to a degree. And that's amazing. If you have ambitions of leadership going forward, you have just done yourself a massive service. Now, we can talk about whether she's the right person for other reasons, her communications weaknesses, whether just being Being tied to the government for so long is still going to rear her head in a negative way with Canadians, but wow, like really, really good. And so I'm going to put that hat on to answer your question here, which is, and
Zain: degree. I'm
Corey: my fundamental answer is, I don't know, but when should she pop her head back up?
Corey: The minute people are about to stop talking to her, you
Zain: you know? Carter, tell me this. Would Stephen Carter have made a difference in making this letter better? Yes or no? And if so, what? Would Corey Hogan have made a difference in making this letter better? Yes or no? No, I don't think – and this is really well written. This is the first 10 out of 10 we're giving to the liberals for a very long time.
Corey: And if so,
Corey: Would Corey
Carter: Corey
Zain: Well, to a liberal, to a liberal and her staff, which, by the way, is actually worth mentioning. We hear rumors of an incredibly loyal, dedicated staff that she seems to have around her who may or may not continue on with Dominic LeBlanc, who's going to get sworn in in a couple of minutes here as a new finance minister for the government.
Zain: Carter? Okay, that was the Christopher Freeland door. I said I want to go to Carney. But before I go to Carney,
Zain: can I go to Jagmeet Singh for half a second? Justin Trudeau has to go. This government is obsessed with infighting. Right move or wrong move for Jagmeet Singh thus far?
Carter: Justin Trudeau
Carter: I mean, I think it's the only move. It was a predictable answer. I mean, him saying that Justin Trudeau needs to go makes perfect sense. But it's not gaining him anything. He's not able to elevate himself beyond being a footnote in the story. I mean, what paragraph will we see Jagmeet Singh's answer, right? Paragraph 22 on Jagmeet Singh also asked for the prime minister to step down. That is just not great strategic communications. And I don't have anything better for him. But this is what happens when you are not the author of the situation, when in fact, you're just the person who's the passenger going further. Well,
Corey: Well, actually, I would say that he set himself this fate months ago. And we talked about this when he said he was going to support the government case by case and no longer give like the supply and confidence agreement you know he ripped it up right so
Corey: so yeah he said the prime minister has to go the obvious next question or that his next comment was all options are on the table get
Carter: yeah
Corey: get out of here with that weak ass shit all options are on the table and then he was really called on pretty quickly i think it was paul wells who said okay but we're in the real world would you vote for confidence or not after everything you've have just said. And he just repeated, like a weak child, all options are on the table. Jagmeet, this is not even a change from your position yesterday. This is ridiculous. All options are on the table, but you're going to continue to prop up these people? The finance minister doesn't even support this government, and you're supporting this government.
Corey: You look pathetic right now. And this is because you've created this trap for yourself, where all of a sudden, every single vote, people turn to you and say, are you still going to do it? You know, you said it's not a confidence in supply agreement anymore like let's do a mental exercise at this point what would it take for sing to vote down this government because
Corey: because because we've got three
Carter: because we've
Carter: three million dollars in his bank account we've had uh for the new democrat party new democrats labor
Corey: labor has been ordered back to work in the canada post strike right by the liberal by the liberal minister right uh we have now had the finance minister leave under spectacular conditions as we're talking about right now he's
Zain: post
Carter: post
Zain: post strike right
Zain: by the liberal minister right
Corey: he's blown through any kind of like deadlines and ultimatums that are given generally speaking and he continues to say frowns i don't know about this right now i guess i'm going to look at him a little bit uh askance i'm going to look like i'm not totally satisfied with him but i'm going to continue voting to prop this guy up like you couldn't look weaker if you tried to meet and and the crazy thing is you're going to think it's working because inevitably trudeau's going to drop five points in the polls and
Corey: and you're going to be ahead of him and you're going to say hey look at us we're now in second place that
Corey: that has nothing to do with you and in fact you've created a very weak uh painful situation for yourself carter
Zain: let's talk about uh
Zain: mark carney okay
Zain: okay how can he take on the finance minister role now let me paint you a picture trudeau's gotten rid of freeland freeland has gone scorched earth freeland's a woman another woman that justin trudeau's gotten rid of like he's got a narrative there and now you bring in the central banker from from central casting to take over. That's not a good look.
Zain: How does Mark Carney take this on? I don't think, can we just say,
Corey: I don't think he does it. I'm hearing he's out. If he was ever in, he's out. Yeah, he's
Carter: he's out. Yeah, he's got
Carter: got to be out. I mean, there's no way he can take this on. I mean, he will look-
Carter: To
Zain: To the question, yes.
Carter: question,
Carter: yes. He will look completely weak. He will look, he
Carter: he won't look like the leader. He'll look like he was, he has his fingertips on the knife that
Carter: that got plunged into Chris Jeffery Lynn's back. He is, and he's under no obligation to take it. So could either of
Zain: either of you think of me a strategic scenario that you can craft that would allow Mark Carney to take this job? And if the answer is no, the answer is no. But dig deep and think for me a scenario in which you would say, Mark, you could take this job. Who wants to go first? Carter. I'll
Carter: say,
Carter: I'll go first.
Carter: An interim prime minister calls Mark Carney to become the minister
Carter: minister of finance to get
Carter: get through the budget. Ready
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SPEAKER_00: Ambitions made real. Okay,
Corey: that's scenario one. Corey, what's your scenario? The scenario two is just to say, you know, through your people, not directly, but say, you know, Mark was asked to be finance minister. He was told that Chrystia was fine with it, that Chrystia wanted to put her focus elsewhere. He
Corey: He had no idea this was happening. He's aghast at what happened. Absolutely aghast. But he also knows this is too sensitive a time, too important a time. We're one month to Trump's tariffs coming in, theoretically. Canada needs a finance minister and experienced one. He thinks he can be that person. He thinks he can serve. He's not thrilled to serve in this way, but he's not going to let the country down at this point. point oh
Carter: god that's weak carter
Zain: carter you moved a few pieces on the board in order to get to yours you had to fire the prime minister yeah you had to pretty much okay but let's bring in the prime minister for a second cory if if mark carney this is a big if okay i'm gonna but let's just go down hypothetical avenue if mark carney is the anointed justin trudeau succession plan would
Carter: you had to fire the prime
Corey: prime
Carter: prime minister
Corey: minister
Zain: you as trudeau have to resign in order to give carney a clean slate to run directly for leadership and bypass the whole finance option or can you prorogue and bring them back like if the premise is if carney is your succession plan squarely yeah what moves are you making as justin trudeau today cory i
Zain: mean that was
Corey: was a lot cleaner yesterday right uh it was but it's now you've got a pretty difficult situation i think he's so tied up in this already he's gonna get all of the downside none of the upside if he's not made finance minister so i think if this is the plan and if he's in on it you still make him finance minister and you bring him there and as weak as carter thinks it is i think you bring out a narrative like i've just described which is saying didn't know it was going to go down this way it's kind of bullshit but i'm somebody who's here to serve because let's not forget one of the reasons why he might be interested in taking the finance minister position in the first place is to shore up the conversation that uh he's
Corey: he's only here for the good times, not the bad times, right? That's why he didn't run. So he wants to be here for some of the bad times. Like he is intentionally running into a burning building, taking a position like this. So you just got to own it and embrace it and make that part of your brand and double down on that. Because if that's the story you're going for, you
Corey: just keep telling that story. That's your only choice at this particular moment.
Carter: Or Carter? No, it's not your only choice. The other half of the choice is don't go and that to me is the infinitely more wise position um don't go until such time as as there's an interim prime minister who calls upon you uh to serve uh in a moment of crisis in the moment of crisis is justin trudeau uh finally deciding that he's able yeah here's my
Corey: able yeah here's my problem with that everybody knows that carney was the plan you
Corey: you know like he's he's got that downside like you're not going to point to him it's going to be like well trudeau got exactly what he fucking wanted is what it's going to feel like at that particular moment so how do you how do
Carter: he's
Zain: he's
Carter: he's
Zain: he's he's
Carter: he's
Zain: he's
Zain: do you yeah but court carter to answer the question i'll get back to court how do you as trudeau now you're helping trudeau how do you as trudeau ensure carney can still remain the plan what are your strategic moves ahead of you because you've tossed prorogation on the table you've got resignation you've got moves what are they to ensure carney is your successor i
Carter: don't know i
Carter: mean i think that i think that carney has to be off the table i think that if you put carney in at this stage you're throwing gasoline on the fire and uh you know another female minister replaced by a guy i mean already you've got dominic leblanc running in there but at least he's a guy that has been a part a fundamental part of the justin trudeau government does it doesn't
Zain: does it doesn't resignation make carney much more viable you you leave and open up a leadership race now carney is one of five people running for your job doesn't that still keep your pathway cleaner for him or if he leaves i mean sure but
Carter: if he leaves i mean
Carter: mean sure but then the prime minister has to resign like the
Carter: the prime minister has to resign is
Carter: is the only the only answer to all of these questions the only answer to all these questions okay that's helpful that's all the minister has to resign it's on the table cory
Zain: that's all the minister has
Zain: cory
Zain: sources say that prime minister has tossed out resignation and prorogation as as a hype which one would you advise for him and and why i
Corey: i would have advised resignation for him a year and a half Half ago and every day since.
Zain: Excellent.
Corey: Excellent.
Zain: Excellent.
Corey: Excellent.
Zain: Excellent. On December 16, 2024, what would you advise? I
Zain: I
Corey: I would advise resignation. I'm actually being flipped because I've been saying for months it might be too late. But at this point, like,
Corey: like, the car has fallen apart. We are now in an emergency recovery situation here where he's got to look at ways he can rebuild. And I don't think he can rebuild. The most important step of rebuilding is still in his control, though, and that's resigning and allowing the party to move on from his leadership. what
Zain: value does prorogation add carter is it just like purely pride is that all it gets him or does it actually give him strategic value with all of the pieces on the board and what we know right now i
Carter: i mean what's he gaining at this stage a couple of weeks uh or a couple of days i
Carter: i mean he doesn't have to go back into the house of commons until but
Carter: but still has to go back in in the spring still needs to do a budget still needs to try and figure out a way to keep sing from from toppling his oh Oh, never mind. He doesn't have to worry about that. Singh will never topple his government.
Carter: But, you know, there's no
Carter: no real advantage to prorogation. The real advantage that still exists, the only thing that I can see that makes sense is resignation. It's too late. It's too little. But this is what happens when hubris, you know, starts to be the
Carter: the driving factor. I mean, he thought he was the only one who could beat Pierre
Carter: Pierre Polyev, despite
Carter: despite all evidence to the contrary. And now we are in a place where all the chickens have come home to roost, and he's completely screwed. There is
Carter: is no means available, by
Carter: by my reckoning, for
Carter: for this guy to continue to be the leader. Yeah,
Corey: Yeah, like, I think they're a bundle, resignation and prorogation, you resign and you prorogue, which allows you then to have a leadership contest in some way, shape or form. And you try to do it fast. Actually, it's so interesting to think about, because we've still got this tariff challenge that we're staring down, right? right? Correct. But I think that that has to be the bundle. And maybe it's prorogation. And you resign, you basically let it be signaled all in, like, we're going to start this leadership contest after the swearing in of the president. And once we get there, I don't know, but like, they go together. There's no reason in my mind to prorogue unless
Carter: right?
Corey: you're planning to resign to because that's what then gives you the time to regroup and rebuild a prorogation. Otherwise, Otherwise, it's just a very quick tactical thing to avoid a confidence vote.
Corey: I guess that would be the answer, though. If you think that the NDP is actually going to vote against you, you could prorogue your way out of that. But I'll be honest, that
Corey: doesn't look like much of a risk right now.
Carter: Yeah, I mean, I've heard
Corey: heard all options
Zain: options are
Corey: are
Zain: are on the
Corey: the table.
Zain: table.
Corey: table.
Carter: table.
Zain: table.
Corey: table.
Carter: That's like the sun shining at midnight. It's just not going to happen.
Zain: Not unless you're Alaska or that movie Insomnia. Have you seen that movie?
Zain: Al Pacino, Robin Williams. I don't watch
Carter: Williams. I don't watch movies. Hilary Swank.
Carter: I don't go out of my house. Yeah, we
Zain: don't go out
Zain: Yeah, we understand. That makes sense. You're dressed in all black. Are you mourning something?
Carter: Yeah, I'm mourning the loss of Christopher Eland. Okay,
Zain: Okay, that's what I thought. Yeah, that's good.
Carter: Okay,
Corey: good.
Zain: good. I'll
Corey: I'll let you fill in that blank.
Zain: blank.
Zain: Corey,
Zain: do you want to go down Rumor Avenue again? Yeah, sure. What
Corey: Yeah, sure.
Corey: are you hearing? I'm hearing all sorts of stuff. I'm hearing – let's just be clear.
Corey: Let's not go deep into the rumors. I'm saving this until the end. Let's talk about the
Zain: the end. Let's talk about the nature of
Corey: of
Zain: of
Corey: of rumors, I think, maybe as much as anything. I'm hearing there are other ministers prepared to resign. Some reasons we might believe that are on the – Oh,
Zain: that
Zain: Oh, by the way, Frazier did resign this morning. Sorry, I was supposed to take the day. Yeah, sorry, Sean Frazier. You were going to potentially leave the party in the future, but you're a footnote for December 16th. By the way, it's super awkward
Corey: I was supposed to take the day. Yeah, sorry, Sean Frazier.
Corey: December 16th. By the way, it's super awkward that during his conference, that's when he learned about Freeland, and then he had to react to that. I didn't see that moment. Did someone tell him? Oh, I didn't see it. So that's where he learned about it. Weird stuff, but he said nice things about her. but on the insta cabinet uh and then it said you know did this whole i'm so shocked and i'm so overcome with emotion thing that i didn't 100 buy i'm just gonna be honest it like felt a little yeah a little performative but
Zain: react to that. I didn't see that moment. Did someone
Zain: tell him? Oh,
Carter: little yeah a
Zain: a little
Corey: but uh saying oh
Zain: oh so you think you should have known well
Corey: well i whether she knew or not i think that it's still a little bit crocodile tears here right
Zain: a little bit crocodile tears here right
Zain: right
Corey: right
Zain: right so oh shit called
Corey: shit called
Zain: called out you know none well she can respond directly to the party listen she can email us not
Corey: not as good of an
Zain: an
Corey: an actor as you think you are that's all i'm gonna say okay oh shit brown people can't act go
Zain: go ahead okay good
Corey: okay
Carter: okay good
Corey: good
Zain: good
Corey: good
Carter: good good thanks very much uh zane how many oscars
Zain: many oscars have we won as the brown community very few very
Zain: few okay maybe ben kingsley but he doesn't even have a brown name so
Corey: so i'm just gonna move past that and say let's go you said
Carter: said i think you should keep going keep going cory can you sit in that uncomfortable some suggestion
Corey: said i think you should keep going keep going
Corey: cory can you sit in that uncomfortable some suggestion that there's going to be other resignations in cabinet that people are considering it to put additional pressure on some suggestion that it might be people who would have reason to be offended right uh one of the suggestions is that freeland was offered this minister without portfolio to be responsible for canada u.s relations in the u.s without a department without a department responsible canada u.s extra interesting because she didn't actually go down to mar-a-lago you'll recall right yeah
Zain: in the u.s
Zain: yeah but
Corey: but dominic did in the blog yeah
Zain: yeah but
Corey: but uh then
Corey: you could imagine that would be shortening somebody else's portfolio and so maybe they wouldn't be so happy about that right so there's some some questions about confidence all over the board there so that's one big rumor that's out there that there'll be other resignations there are resignation or there are rumors that um that the prime minister has already decided he wants to resign and perhaps he's just being talked out of it by people around him uh orbit maybe it's already determined now like we're always a little bit legged on these particular rumors so can
Zain: we can we pause on that one for a second sure because i i like when i hear Here's something I'll find interesting. I want to kind of pause it for like academic strategic thinking. So I noticed that like
Corey: noticed that like
Zain: like the other cabinet
Corey: cabinet
Zain: cabinet resignations
Corey: resignations
Zain: resignations didn't even phase
Corey: phase you.
Zain: you.
Corey: you.
Zain: you. Who cares?
Corey: cares?
Zain: cares?
Carter: cares?
Zain: cares? I
Carter: I
Zain: I
Carter: I feel
Zain: feel like that's
Carter: that's old. That's
Zain: That's pretty
Carter: pretty
Zain: pretty straightforward.
Carter: straightforward.
Carter: straightforward.
Zain: straightforward. Who gives a shit? We've had that hanging over us for weeks. You literally have had your number two, the one who you've let run the country, leave. I don't think any of the other ones matter, really. They should have come out before, so
Carter: straightforward. Who gives a shit?
Carter: We've had that hanging over us for weeks. You literally have had
Zain: to speak. Maybe they add to the pile, but I don't know if they necessarily add that impact. But let's talk about this. Carter, you
Zain: were chief of staff. You were in a premier's office. If you were convincing your principal to stay, do you think you'd ever be able to do so? And what argument would you use? I'll tell you something. And is it a futile exercise? I'm going to ask three questions loaded so you can have an opportunity to answer zero. I don't think it has to
Carter: And is
SPEAKER_00: is
Carter: is it a futile
Carter: you can have an opportunity
Carter: to answer zero. I don't think it has to be in the prime minister's office, the premier's office, any of these offices. I think if someone has decided they're going to quit, let them quit. Your heart isn't in it any longer. You're no longer serving the best needs of the corporation, the best needs of the government, the best needs of whatever the situation, your own best needs. If you've decided that you can't have enough, you've had enough and you can't make it anymore, don't go running and convincing someone who's already quit to stay. It's just bad governance. When someone decides that they're going to go, let them go. No. And that would be the same if it was the prime minister or someone who's in charge of cleaning up a mess. I don't know. I was going to go somewhere and I thought it sounds a little bit – Let it go as a good episode title. Let's
Zain: it sounds a little bit – Let it go as a good episode title. Let's go with that. Also a good episode title, Brown Oscar. That's good. That's really good. Thank you for that contribution. It was based on
Carter: That's good.
SPEAKER_00: good.
Carter: good.
SPEAKER_00: That's really
Carter: really
SPEAKER_00: really good.
Carter: good.
SPEAKER_00: good. Thank you for that contribution.
Carter: contribution.
SPEAKER_00: contribution.
SPEAKER_00: on
Zain: on
SPEAKER_00: on your commentary about
Zain: about it. Yeah,
Carter: it. Yeah, I know. It's fantastic.
SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
Zain: What would you do, Hogan? Like if you were either – I guess let's just put you in the staffer position. Would you try to,
Zain: A, try to convince someone to stay, and B, is that ever successful?
Corey: successful?
Zain: successful? I
Corey: I think it is such a big thing when you're in a position like that to decide that you're going to – and listen, unless this is happening like every minute because that's your personality and you're always threatening to go, the minute you've decided that you want to leave that job, you've probably had those thoughts for a very long time, and you are so sure that you're now articulating them. them so my general view is it's too late by the time you're having that conversation in a way if it's you know that you've declared like i think it's time for me to go you're
Corey: you're
Corey: you're gone it's already over and even if they convince you to stay your heart's not going to be in it you're not going to do the things you need to do make
Corey: make no mistake being a leader of a political party is a very demanding job very hard job being a prime minister way more so still and if you don't want to do it you shouldn't do it there's there's a hundred reasons why you shouldn't do it if you don't want to do it so move on right if you no longer have the fire if you no longer believe you are the person to do the role move
Corey: move on and if you're the staff around it i understand you're seeing this like your whole job your whole identity is defending your principle protecting them advancing them and it feels like a personal failure if you can't do that right it also feels like this is the whole reason you're here and um and and and you you've internalized that to a point where it's not even just about It's not about your failure. It's about you believe in this bigger thing and your leader is the epitome of it. So I get it, but don't do it. It's over at that point. It's over. Carter,
Zain: Carter, if Trudeau were to leave today, tomorrow, next couple of weeks, would it surprise you that he did so without having Katie left first? Or does that not surprise you at all? And this is not a personal site on Katie. It's just the chief of staff position is usually one of those tools
Zain: tools you have to throw under the bus. And in this case, did not. Does not seem like that is going to be the case for Trudeau. I don't even think they could given
Corey: for Trudeau. I don't even think they could given all of the narrative right now about his – For sure. Like I think right now
Zain: his – For sure. Like I think right now I think it's definitely a no. So more than likely, if and when Justin Trudeau leaves, Katie Telford will have left with him but not because of him, not thrown under the bus by him. Does that surprise you for a guy that's been mired in two years of this sort of downward trajectory?
Carter: I mean not
Carter: really given their relationship. Their relationship appears to be one that is – that kind of goes beyond regular politics. And I think that we saw that with Ron Glenn and Ed Stelmack, where, you
Carter: you know, their relationship was so strong that the drumbeat to get rid of Ron was actually heard
Carter: heard by the premier and he resigned.
Carter: So,
Carter: you know, you can't have you can't get to I won't let you take him out. I think that that's the position that this that
Carter: this prime minister is taking with Katie. And let's be clear, I think that Katie is tremendously
Carter: tremendously talented. talented um she's
Carter: she's run
Carter: this run this government very
Carter: very very well in
Carter: in but not
Carter: the last couple of years and whether
Carter: whether that's the prime minister or katie um
Carter: um someone should have realized that there needed to be new uh new blood and new and new direction and uh that hasn't happened so katie i
Carter: i think that katie comes going down with the ship was probably in
Carter: in the cards right from the get-go
Corey: Corey, what do you think? Yeah, well, it is one of the, I mean, it's very, on a day high of drama, that's a very dramatic thing. But it's probably true, right? Like they were a team from day one, and I think that they will probably end as a team too. But, I mean, let's be clear, we're still just talking about rumors. And it's possible that Ottawa leaves tomorrow. The Ottawa rumor mill just spins itself down. And a month from now, Justin Trudeau does make a change of that position. and that that is too it's probably another uh woman chief of staff right but um yeah that's a possibility too we just don't know what's going to happen here ah
Zain: ah christopher freeland that makes yeah i hear
Corey: yeah i hear she's now available oh my
Zain: my god it's perfect
Corey: perfect i
Zain: i
Corey: i
Zain: i
Corey: i
Zain: i think we we we solved it guys cory what else you're hearing you're hearing anything else carter i'll come to you if you're here well i
Corey: well i was hearing that carney was in right and so we'll see maybe he is still maybe there's just a moment maybe it's people putting words in his mouth around it saying maybe he's not anymore but But to be clear, though, if you guys were advising Carney, would it be like a don't do this, man? I think
Zain: think it would.
Corey: would.
Zain: would.
Corey: would. I think it would. I'm a little bit more willing to hear the argument otherwise. And then the rumor was he was going to run in Ottawa South in a by-election. That was the other rumor. Oh, yeah, right.
Zain: would. I think
Zain: Oh, yeah, right.
Zain: Right.
Corey: Right. Yeah. Carter, what do you hear?
Carter: It's the Liberal Christmas Party this
Carter: this week.
Carter: That's
Zain: That's true. Should be a great Wednesday.
Carter: That's
Carter: true. Should be a great Wednesday.
Zain: And I think Laurier Club today. Yeah, it is Laurier Club today. Yeah, like everybody
Carter: Club today. Yeah, like everybody and their dog is in Edmonton right now. That's their big donor. Or in Ottawa. Yeah,
Zain: dog is in Edmonton right now. That's their big donor. Or in Ottawa. Yeah, right. Yeah.
Carter: Yeah. out so
Carter: so everybody is out in ottawa and uh the
Carter: the rumor mills must be just going absolutely crazy oh
Carter: my fucking god cory
Zain: cory we
Zain: we might have to record this podcast again if something happens between well now and this evening i mean there's a real
Corey: real
Corey: real
Zain: real
Corey: real good chance
Zain: chance
Corey: chance
Zain: chance
Corey: chance
Zain: chance of that yeah
Corey: yeah
Zain: i
Corey: i
Carter: okay so prediction time yeah because i'm so good at it no
Zain: yeah because i'm so good at it no
Zain: no no it's good i'm so glad you were doing this yourself yeah go ahead yeah
Carter: were doing this
Carter: go ahead yeah tell me what happens what happens tonight zane uh
Zain: more than likely we're recording another podcast, I imagine, is what happens today.
Carter: You really think we're recording another podcast? No, Corey, are
Zain: No, Corey, are we? Sorry. Sorry, it's me. I forgot I was a player. He meant, like, you
Carter: we?
Corey: was a player. He meant,
Corey: you and me will record a podcast, Stephen. Yeah, no,
Zain: Stephen. Yeah, no, no, no. I have no interest in doing this show. As you know, I've checked out, like, three years ago. Corey, let's do the prediction game. Let's
Carter: Let's see if Annalise is available first.
Zain: Yeah, okay. Let's do that. Let's do that. Let's make that an evergreen statement. Okay.
Zain: um
Zain: prorogation resignation both this evening oh boy um
Corey: um uh
Corey: i'm gonna say no i'll tell you why no because i'll bet you if it is true that the prime minister staff's trying to talk them out of it there's
Corey: there's if if there's a give there it's just give it a day just give it a day see where we are in a day don't do anything rash carter
Corey: either
Corey: both i
Carter: i think i think we're re-recording tonight uh
Corey: i think i
Carter: uh and i think that we're talking about the uh former prime minister oh
Corey: interesting you You might be right. Wow. You know, normally I just want to run screaming from your predictions. But if
Carter: if
Corey: not this, nothing. If not this, nothing. Like nothing is going to bring him down if not this. Now it could still be on a delay. It
Carter: this, nothing. If
Zain: be on a delay. It
Zain: It is a full in-person caucus
Zain: meeting. Yeah. Which of course makes sense because of Laurier and Christmas Party, right? Like they're all in town. And of course, everyone's there. But
Corey: Yeah.
Carter: Yeah. Which of
Carter: all in town.
Carter: everyone's there.
Zain: But it makes sense. I mean, incredible timing again by Christopher Freeland. Like just reinforcing again the timing of this. Absolute legend. Yeah.
Carter: Yeah. Yeah, but keep in mind, I keep returning to this wasn't entirely her call for the timing. The
Carter: The prime minister himself said the timing.
Zain: said the timing. Handed it to her, and as Corey said, and as you guys have both agreed, did not see her as an opponent when he made that ask of her on Friday. Instead of just gave her free weekend leverage that she hit him on the head with on Monday morning.
Zain: Beat the
Carter: Beat
Carter: the shit out of him.
Zain: Which will go—Corey, will this go down as one of the most epic strategic fails? It should. The Justin—
Zain: Absolutely should. Give me some lessons to be learned, because this part has already happened. The
Zain: The long tail of it is to be seen, but it's not going to be good for the liberals. So give me some of the strategic lessons around what is to be learned of the PMO failure.
Corey: failure. Well, let's start with lesson one. Just because you've drank the Kool-Aid doesn't mean everybody around you has, right? Lesson two, just because you owe everything to the prime minister doesn't mean everything around him, everybody around him does. Like, Chrystia Freeland was a super prominent, super important public persona on her own, right? This idea that she's just going to take whatever the prime minister gives, thank you, minister without portfolio sounds great. Like, that is just horseshit. That's crazy. crazy and it does i mean these all wrap up really into the fact like other
Corey: other people have ambitions other people have goals other people have lives and those lives are not to serve you leader right so any smart leader is thinking about the motivations of people around them and by the way textbook definition of political acumen political acumen small p which anybody in like any fortune 500 companies expected to have let alone the prime
Corey: prime minister of a country is knowing how people get decisions made. And that's their internal processes. That's the external processes, the things they go through and say, why am I doing this? What do I get out of it? What's motivating me? And you understanding those things as you are working with them to try to get things done. And the obliviousness of going to somebody like Chrystia Freeland and saying, I'm going to give you this fake job. And I hope you'll stick around and not fucking stick a knife in me on on Monday, as I asked you to do this thing that you do not want to do, is
Corey: is just wild to me. They clearly had no sense of her decision making, which means they have no sense of political acumen, which means they should be on their asses out of here.
Zain: Carter, what lessons are to be learned from it, in addition to what Corey's put on the table?
Carter: Well, I just think that, you know, whenever you're playing chess, you look at what your opponent's next move is. And even when you're playing playing checkers you should probably be thinking what's my opponent's next move and
Carter: and they did not do that they were not playing political chess they were playing some other game that i'm unaware of where you don't have to go fish
Zain: go fish go fish go
Carter: go fish go fish is a great example go fish is uh although there might be some strategies to go for
Corey: to go for
Corey: for yeah yeah
Carter: yeah there's a little bit of strategy i don't know i
Corey: little bit of strategy i don't know i can't remember how to play go fish uh
Carter: it strikes me as a pretty simple game that we'd be able to to recreate relatively quickly. But the point of the exercise is that you should be thinking, okay, what will she do?
Carter: What will she do? And do we have, is this the right time to do this particular piece? There's always more time.
Carter: I know I tend to want to rush into things. I have a tendency to want to do things immediately, but
Carter: but there's always more time.
Carter: And this
Carter: this is a great example of the prime minister not realizing that.
Zain: Corey, you've often said nothing is as good or as as bad as it seems. Does that apply here for the PMO? I
Corey: mean, I think that's
Zain: that's true. I think that's true,
Corey: that's true.
Corey: that's true,
Corey: true, but
Zain: but
Corey: but things
Zain: things look
Corey: look really fucking bad right now. And I think even if they were just a little bad, it would be game over for Justin Trudeau.
Zain: Carter, final question on predictions. You're thinking it's the former prime minister. You are suggesting, excuse me, that he does that tonight, if I'm getting clarity on that. Yeah.
Zain: Yeah.
Carter: Yeah. Final
Zain: Final
Zain: prediction.
Zain: Mark Carney,
Zain: is he in or is he out?
Zain: He's out. Corey
Zain: Mark Carney, is he in or is he out? He's out. Wait,
Zain: he said he's out? He's in. in i
Carter: i said he's out he's in yeah excellent
Zain: excellent we'll
Zain: we'll more than likely see you all in a couple of hours that's a wrap on episode 1841 of the strategist my name is zane velji with me as always for this emergency episode cory hogan stephen carter and we'll see you next running
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