Transcript
Zain
0:01
This is a strategist episode 1834. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Stephen Carter. And of course, we have Corey Hogan. Guys, what's going on?
Carter
0:11
Yeah, it was great. I'm really good day today. We
Corey
0:13
We have two days until Donald Trump is finally exercised from American politics when Kamala
Corey
0:19
Kamala Harris kicks his other ass.
Carter
0:23
Couldn't be more wrong. I thought about it this weekend and Donald Trump's winning this election. I think it's going
Zain
0:29
Do we want to... Okay, excellent. Well, we've got it under the belt. Do we just want to end it here?
Zain
0:33
We want a 30
Corey
0:37
We could. Your negativity has no place here, Stephen. No,
Corey
0:40
negativity. It's realism. This is a good vibe zone. You
Zain
0:44
Realistic. Let's warm up to that. Realistic answer. Let's warm up to that by something that I'm sure will bring us together. Let's start here. No, no, no, no fucking talk. This is too serious. American democracy is on the line. No, it's
Corey
0:56
not. It's going to be a landslide for
Corey
0:58
for Harris. but carter one
Corey
0:58
one place where there
Zain
1:00
there is no democracy anymore because we elect 86 for nahadenshi and now 91.5 percent for danielle smith is our dear province yep uh of of alberta that
Corey
1:13
that can't possibly be true because let me just rummage into a bag i have here yeah
Corey
1:18
i've got a clip yeah
Corey
1:20
from i don't know three days ago i
Zain
1:23
i don't think many people would have heard this clip well definitely Definitely not most of the people listening to this. Well, it's true. It was on the Patreon. Yeah, that's fine. But I think we can take some of that content and put it on the main feed. Corey, let's talk about that clip.
Carter
1:33
Let's run that clip. I rest confidently in the fact that you're too fucking lazy to find the clip. That's what I rest confidently in.
Zain
1:40
Carter, let's end with what you wanted to talk about from the beginning. After this meandering, long, Diefenbaker
Corey
1:49
Does Danielle Smith survive this weekend in
Carter
1:52
I don't think she's going to.
Zain
1:56
didn't want to lead with that so
Corey
1:59
so i don't know it doesn't feel like with such confidence that that's possible that daniel's yeah all right well here's this is why
Carter
2:06
i'm quite confident we were also gonna win we
Zain
2:09
we were also on carter you just you just park yourself for a second don't try to pivot this to trump conversation okay
Zain
2:14
did she do this this is a an impressive number no for sure we were saying that we
Corey
2:19
we thought she'd be in the 60s that's
Corey
2:23
don't know if we talked about on or off, Mike, but we definitely thought that was her best case scenario. To see her in the 90s is crazy. That's a really high number for a party that has historically consumed its own leader every four years, right?
Carter
2:38
Oh, yeah. This will make her the first premier since Ralph Klein to
Carter
2:43
to face two elections in a row.
Corey
2:45
Yeah. Which is pretty crazy. I mean, if she does, let's just put one thing on the table. it's not
Zain
2:51
not mandated by a leadership review yeah
Corey
2:53
yeah yeah a lot of shit can happen in fact i mean she could fly to
Carter
2:56
to south africa you
Carter
2:58
you know that could happen she
Corey
3:00
she could yeah she could just you know move to panama if she wanted to but the uh you
Corey
3:07
you know the the reality is she also got in the 90s when she was leader of the wild rose and she crossed the floor to the pcs and was out as leader in part because she was having trouble controlling that cast of
Corey
3:19
anything could happen happen, but this is, by right-wing political standards in Alberta, quite the coup, shall we say. When's the last time a leader of the main right-wing party in Alberta got
Corey
3:32
got a percent like this?
Carter
3:32
Oh, it's been forever. It's been since Klein, because
Carter
3:35
because Stelmack and Redford both got 78, and
Carter
3:38
and they were... Help
Zain
3:40
Help me understand this from your strategist perspective, Carter. Is this our time to say goodbye to Take Back Alberta, or is this a time to reassess their influence? Is this a time to lean into them even more? Talk to me about how I should be thinking about the opposing even further right flank to Danielle Smith that we've talked about existing. After this result, how should one think about that group? They're not as monolith, but how should one think about them if I were
Carter
4:09
The only thing that we can assume from this result is that Take Back Alberta is firmly in the House, right? They're not outside
Carter
4:16
outside anymore. They're inside because 91% is a big number. 91% is 6,000. I mean, we're looking at 5
Carter
4:24
5,400 people that voted to keep her. I mean,
Carter
4:29
has to assume that there is no opposition and that opposition that does exist or did exist is now firmly inside the House. On top of that, if they are a spent force, we saw in the regulations that came up for Bill 20, which is the Local Authorities Election Act, they prohibited parties from organizing for school board trustees, which is one of the big things that Take Back Alberta really wanted to be able to do.
Carter
4:58
they are a spent force and maybe we're just the last ones to recognize it.
Zain
5:03
Corey, how would you think about them?
Corey
5:05
Yeah, that's an interesting interpretation by Stephen. I guess I half agree. One of the reasons why Danielle Smith was so successful where premiers like Kenny were not, premiers like Stelmak were not, premiers like Redford were not, is she
Corey
5:21
she is more to the right. She has the people on the right of the party that have caused so much pain and grief for Premier's past that have come from the PCs and the UCP. But I only half agree because I do think that for a long time, it's been suggested to take back Alberta's – its
Corey
5:40
its authority was overstated, right? And yes, they helped get Kenny out of the chair. They helped get Danielle into the chair. But that was an aligning of interests rather than one
Corey
5:52
one organization exerting their will Pulling the strings, right? I mean, that's been the argument from the premier's office forever, forever. And I think you have to give a little bit of credence to it. But I also believe that Danielle Smith has used her last couple of years wisely in terms of party politics, her and her circle. And they have tried to make sure that she has her own power base. One of the things that I was saying on West of Center a couple of weeks ago was I didn't think she was really in jeopardy because I hadn't talked to Stephen yet. So I didn't know she was likely to lose that leadership review. Yeah,
Corey
6:26
absolutely. That things are happening.
Carter
6:28
Trump is going to win.
Corey
6:29
But this was an opportunity for Danielle to exert her own authority on the party and make it clear that she has her own power base. And I think she's pretty clearly done that after this weekend. in.
Zain
6:41
Carter, let me ask what Corey answered, but let me ask the question for you. What does her victory prove to you? Open-ended question. As a strategist, what does it prove to you?
Carter
6:52
It proves that she's got way more control over her caucus and her membership than anybody would have believed given her behavior.
Carter
7:03
behavior was that it looked like she was behaving out of character to try and suck up to uh powers that existed inside or outside of the party and now it looks like she just wants to do those things right she wants to go after trans youth she wants to go after the education system that
Carter
7:22
this is just who she is
Zain
7:23
is in that this
Carter
7:23
this is who she is now this isn't this isn't a woman who's who has stepped outside of who she is um to placate a group. This is a woman who's now saying, yeah, no, I am this person. I want these things. And I guess that that has come as a bit of a surprise to me. I thought she was trying to win over a group of people, but evidently
Carter
7:48
evidently I was incorrect.
Zain
7:50
And we've had that discussion of, is this Danielle or is this an act? Multiple times, especially considering the versions, plural, we've known of her over the years. Corey, get into this conversation. Well,
Corey
8:00
she herself would say that she learned something from her past leadership and that one of them was she needed to listen to more to the people around her and be a little bit more right wing. Even I would argue more than she herself is. Does that mean it's not her? No, I think at this point, that's a distinction without a difference. But it's clear that she wants to placate these, placate might not even be the right word. she is she is doing politics she is getting groups together and they're getting support behind her that that is politics and she's decided that she wants to do that in a big way and she has perhaps rightly assessed that the risk to premier is if they're with the ucp and the pc party in alberta is the call is from inside the house right and and so she has said i'm not just going to get them to get me the the premiership i know that i need to maintain their support to maintain that premiership in the long haul. And so she's governing accordingly, right? So there's two ways to read it. And I guess I read it in that she has shown that she herself is in charge, right? She is the power broker who's making those decisions. She is building those coalitions. But the other way to read it is kind of the root fact that Stephen and I agree, which is in a very right-wing party, right? And this very right-wing party has clearly been given significant
Corey
9:20
significant authority over the the governing of this province. There's no doubt about that. There's no disputing that. But I think where we might be disputing, me and Stephen, is I think Danielle Smith is very much in the driver's seat about this. And Stephen, at least to me, you're sort of implying she's on this bus, right? She's on this bus and the right wing has controlled this party.
Carter
9:41
questions. No, no, no. I think that I'm actually more agreeing with you. I thought that she was was someone who was just trying to pretend that she was driving the bus, but someone else was, but it turns out she's driving the bus. She's the one who's chosen all of these right-wing policies. She's the one who's made all the decisions, and I was incorrect in thinking that the
Carter
10:05
the person that I knew was incapable of making some of these decisions. It would appear that she is more than capable of making some of the most heinous decisions I've seen in elected government since Ralph Klein.
Zain
10:19
I want to spend some time, not today, but certainly after this American election on the policies that she has introduced. I've got two questions here to finish off the Daniel Smith weekend that she had. Not
Zain
10:30
Not to take really much away from her, Carter, but I'll start with you on this, but the conservative mood music of the country, which is dominant by Pierre Palliev and conservatives kind of seem to be the party of choice. You see Russet and others being buoyed by Polyev. How much of this big victory belongs to that broader conservative trajectory we feel? It's a distinction without a difference to use a quarry term before, but I do want to tease
Zain
10:58
tease it apart if you have any thoughts on this. Does the fact that she leads this right-wing party and that version of conservatism is now in vogue have something to do with it, or no, this is just who she is and the party she's running here? I'm just curious if either of you have thoughts on this. I
Carter
11:13
I think that the version of conservatism that relies on ignorance, that relies on misinformation, that relies on distortion of facts is in vogue. And with that thrives
Carter
11:28
thrives Daniel Smith. I think Pierre Polyev, every time he opens his mouth, is lying. And the difference, the primary difference between those two is that Daniel Smith doesn't need to lie.
Carter
11:42
She just says what she's going to do, and then she just goes and does it without any concern for ramification. You
Carter
11:49
You know, I mean, Albertans can refuse medical treatments now unless one of those medical treatments is recovery. You know, like, she
Carter
11:59
she just is going and doing her own thing, and there is no check and balance. There's no check and balance. So yeah, I'm not sure I answered the question, but nothing new there. Nothing new there, buddy. Corey,
Zain
12:14
Corey, what do you think? Trump is going to
Zain
12:15
Corey, what do you think? We'll get to it, Carter. Two minutes, I promise you.
Corey
12:20
Yeah, look, this is not an era of moderation. This is not an era where we're rewarding politicians for taking counterintuitive
Corey
12:28
counterintuitive stances, right? Where it's, oh, they're generally
Corey
12:32
generally a conservative, but hey, they're pretty progressive on this issue or they're generally a progressive but you know they're very fiscally responsible like they they're able to
Zain
12:40
to make this yeah this dance happens this is not a
Corey
12:43
a time for putting water in wine that's very clear to me uh across the country there are exceptions you could point to people even like not had nancy and say maybe that's an example of people putting water in their wine or maybe even just preferring water to wine in the case of not had nancy and the ndp but But I
Corey
12:59
do believe we're in a moment where what people want is you to take the most extreme version of your party's stance all the time. And so Daniel Smith has either by accident or intention, and I think you'd be doing a disservice to her to say it's by accident, has said, okay, well, I guess that's what politics is right now. And they're just going hard in the paint. They're just right-wing all of the time. And so you ask if this is part of a movement of conservatism. I don't know. I think it's just what politics looks like in 2024 and certainly more accentuated on the conservative side. People just are not interested in moderation.
Corey
13:42
moderation. moderation, but on
Corey
13:44
on the same vein,
Corey
13:46
vein, Danielle Smith has identified exactly how to turn that into political success with her party. I don't think it's because Pierre Polyev is successful, I think they're both riding the same wave.
Zain
13:59
Strategist Carter, how is one within the NDP examining and acting on this weekend that Danielle Smith had, the Alberta NDP?
Carter
14:09
I think the Alberta NDP should be thrilled. I mean, this is the party saying, we'd like the direction that you're going. Keep going this direction. And the direction moves away from a healthcare system that Albertans want. It moves away from an education system that Albertans want, a post-secondary system that Albertans want. want. Certainly, all of these things
Carter
14:32
things that we profess to want from our society, Danielle Smith is moving away from them. So if you're not a Nenshi, if you can figure out how to get around the lies that we want to believe problem, this was a very good result for you in the long term.
Zain
14:51
Corey, do you agree with that? And if not, how would you advise the Alberta NDP to examine and then act on on what they saw this weekend i
Corey
14:59
think it's pretty early to say but if i am smith one of the concerns and this i'm going to get to your answer about the albert ndp here is increasingly there's nobody to blame right the
Corey
15:10
the ndp government is now looking very much in the rear view mirror that hasn't been since 2019. that
Corey
15:16
that was a ways ago and there'll be even more ways to go by the time we get to the 2027 election sure right uh even kenny very far in the rear view mirror and i I guess to that point, you can't even say, well, you know, I've got a balanced interest within my party. No, it's you. You've got the whole party. You've got everything. You've got 91.5%. You've been in government for years. Your party's been in government for years longer. It's you. And by the way, your biggest opponent, your biggest boogeyman is going to lose too. And that is, of course, Justin Trudeau. So if I'm Danielle Smith, I
Corey
15:49
I guess it's a bit of a double-edged sword that absolutely everything now lands on my feet. I no longer have anybody to blame. at least very easily, right? And so that's maybe something that's of value to the Alberta NDP. They can paint it with everything that's happening from this point forward. And she's not going to have as easy a time by the time you get to 2027 to walk away, to disavow, to deny, to deflect, to say that this was the other people at other times in other jurisdictions. That's just not going to be available to her at the same time. And while this is not the biggest component of that story it's a component of that story she has total control of her party you can't you can't as an albertan look at it and say well she's just trying to maintain the good will of the right in order to govern that's no longer a story that anybody should or could believe at this point but i think if you're looking at it as the alberta ndp you also have to be pretty you
Corey
16:43
you shouldn't you shouldn't be so naive as to think it's all good news for you you have an opponent that is clearly very united, clearly very strong. They can get thousands of people to show up at a convention like Red Deer. And that should give you pause. And I guess it should also give you pause that as wild from a sort of left-right spectrum as these last few months have been,
Corey
17:06
Danielle Smith doesn't seem to have been hurt by it at all with the general electorate. I mean, I haven't seen a ton of polling lately, but I definitely don't get the sense that she would be in dire, dire straits if an election were called next
Corey
17:18
next week, right? I mean, this is the challenge you have if you're the Alberta NDP. You have the most extreme version of Danielle Smith
Corey
17:25
and seems to be selling just fine.
Corey
17:29
Your challenge if you're Danielle Smith is some of those conditions might be disappearing pretty quickly.
Zain
17:35
Going back to one of the points that I think you made, Corey, which was we're
Zain
17:39
we're in this version of politics where you're choosing the extreme all the time. is that advice that the NDP should be picking up on? I mean, they've elected Naya Nenshi as their leader,
Corey
17:52
doesn't seem to be their direction. I'm kind of curious if this
Zain
17:54
this gives you any sort of, well, I don't want to call it just straight up reflexive or reactionary sort of tactics or strategies for the NDP, but does it give you any pause in that regard as well?
Corey
18:05
Well, we talked a little bit about this during the NDP leadership and one of the things that that the Hoffman campaign had going for it, that the other campaigns didn't. I think this was even before Nahed Nenshi entered the race as like the 800-pound gorilla race over, right? Everybody knew it except you, Zane. The race was over the minute he entered. But we
Corey
18:23
we said one of the benefits of Sarah Hoffman's campaign is she always knows exactly what her position is. There's no nuance needed. There's no complexity. She is the party candidate. She is the left-wing candidate. And And she's able to immediately know where she stands on every issue, every issue, whether it be crisis in the Middle East or health care. And there's a lot of value to that when you're trying to build a team and trying to build a sense of mission and a cause. You know, like we're mad as hell and we're going to compromise as nobody's rallying cry. but the idea that somebody is going to take
Corey
19:02
take take those views and they're not going to adulterate them and they're going to fight for them and they're going to move the yardstick and they're going to say and they say yeah we heard this for years and it turns out it might actually be true
Corey
19:12
the problem is only that we're watering these things down if we just give people a bold vision people will vote for us so there
Corey
19:19
there might be some truth to that right but i the
Corey
19:23
the last thing i'll say say.
Corey
19:26
math might be a little different in a province like Alberta, right?
Zain
19:29
This is what I was going to add on, so I'm glad you added that qualifier, Carter. Your thoughts on this as we round out this topic and then get you to defend the impending victory for Donald Trump.
Carter
19:38
Well, normally I would rail about how Corey is wrong, but obviously I
Carter
19:43
I don't have that kind of-
Carter
19:46
for this topic? Realistically, I mean, with Trump going to win, I mean, what does it even matter?
Carter
19:54
This isn't the time to match polarizing ideology with polarizing ideology.
Carter
20:01
That was actually at the heart
Zain
20:02
heart of my question, so
Carter
20:02
so I'm glad you
Zain
20:03
you answered it that way.
Carter
20:04
Yeah, this is the opportunity to match, to
Carter
20:09
to go into a place where the average Albertan lives. Because the average Albertan doesn't live with Daniel Smith. The average Albertan is watching this all unfold and trying to figure out how it impacts them. And if Nahid Nenshi, I mean, you can't just be the fighter just
Carter
20:27
just fighting all the time, but you have to be able to put forward a path towards a new government that will make sense for Albertans. And I think that Nahid Nenshi will have to figure out how to start to tell us what we get from a Nahid Nenshi government instead of just telling us what's wrong with a Daniel Smith government. Yeah.
Corey
20:50
When you have so many people thinking the government is on the wrong track,
Corey
20:56
people are not looking for incremental change. I actually don't know that that means that somebody needs to go far to the left, so to speak. I think in general, left versus right, pretty
Corey
21:06
pretty basic. That's not really how people think about these issues. There's a lot of ways you can cut the spectrum. I do think that politicians need to be thinking about bold and uncompromising versus versus pragmatic and willing to meet you in the middle. I think that in some ways, that's a spectrum that people should keep an eye on and not confuse the two, left and right, bold
Corey
21:27
bold versus compromising. Yeah,
Carter
21:29
Yeah, it's about coming back with something that's different. You can't just simply oppose. Like, for example, you can't just say, okay, we're going to change the sex ed curriculum. That's not good enough. What you'd have to do is come back with something like we're going to do full day dare care, right? or a full-day kindergarten,
Carter
21:50
you have to come back with something that is bigger and better than just the opposition to the issue. And I think that that's where watching now head to this point, he's really pushing on the opposition to the issue instead of proposing new ideas that Albertans want. When you look back, when I look back at what Alison Redford did, we didn't
Carter
22:11
put forward just opposition. We put forward our own ideas that
Carter
22:18
fit people's expectation without necessarily just being opposing.
Zain
22:22
We're going to leave that segment there. Moving on to our next segment, the gang predicts the future of democracy. Corey,
Zain
22:27
I'm going to give you the floor first. Here's how we're going to do this. You're going to lay out your arguments in
Zain
22:34
terms of why you've... I
Zain
22:36
I don't want to be charitable to you. Why you've kind of of shifted. No, I've always felt
Zain
22:43
In terms of why Kamala Harris is
Zain
22:45
going to win on Tuesday. Give me your arguments. I'll let Carter have his arguments. I've got a few things I want to talk to you guys about that might come up organically or not.
Zain
22:58
But Corey, the floor is yours. And then Carter, the floor will eventually be yours. Thank you.
Corey
23:03
Well, let's start here. Why Why would we possibly think Donald Trump has a chance in this election? There's really only one reason, right?
Corey
23:12
right? And it's polls. It's the fact that the polls continue to be so bloody close. But if you look at that and you dig into it a little bit more and you unpack it a little bit more, there's reason to believe that the pollsters are either A, accurate or B, going to miss to Kamala Harris's advantage. And let me lay out the case in plain terms. First,
Corey
23:35
Nate Silver, and I hate to give Nate Silver too much credit because he was right once and now we have to be subjected to his analysis all of the time. But he ran some analysis on, there's a thing in polling called herding, which I'm going to tell a story about the three of us in this particular
Carter
23:52
here. It's going to be embarrassing for us. It's going to be
Corey
23:54
be embarrassing for us. For one of us. For
Corey
23:56
For all three, well, maybe not you, Zane. You were pretty relevant
Corey
24:00
relevant at the time to the polling conversation. I know I was. I was like,
Zain
24:04
like, I think Chrissy Clark's got it.
Corey
24:07
We'll get there. It's the
Corey
24:08
It's the story. Okay, fine. Fantastic. I
Zain
24:12
on the outside looking at
Zain
24:13
Good. And I nailed it.
Corey
24:14
it. Yeah, here's what's going on.
Corey
24:18
when you see a poll and you see, hey, 19 times out of 20, it's supposed to be within 3%, right? Yes. Two things about that. One thing I will always tell people is it doesn't mean it's equally likely to be 3% off and not off at all. It's a curve. So you should assume that it's as close to this, but the probability goes down. But that one time out of 20, it's going to be more than 3% off, right? It's going to be more than three points off. It's going to be further outside of that. And if you start going into like one in a hundred, it's going to be a lot more than that, but we're not seeing that. Instead, we're seeing pollsters all very, very close perpetually. A couple of points difference, max. Harris up one, Trump up one. Trump up one, Harris up one. even you know this is what people are getting and the odds of that are basically zero you know they are zero that pollsters would all be coming independently to such close numbers and the suspicion is that pollsters are looking at the numbers and they're trying to play it safe because a modern pollster is not doing what we call a purely probabilistic sample they are not just getting a thousand random people and saying whatever those people are wherever they live within this jurisdiction we just assume that they are a random sample that just because that's not how the world works now it's harder to get a hold of certain demographics so every pollster does something called waiting which is where they say okay well we wanted 30 young people and we only got 20. so every young person's opinion will essentially wait for 1.5 and we wanted to have
Corey
25:48
500 people over the age of 50 and we ended up with 700 so we're going to wait them down So those opinions are worth less. And so this is what every pollster does and they wait by different things. And one of the things that the polling industry did after their miss in 2016 where they didn't see Donald Trump's victory coming is they said, well, how did we miss this? And they went and they looked at their models and they decided where they didn't consider
Corey
26:12
consider enough was education. education we talked a little bit about this on the last one right
Corey
26:18
so then they rebuilt their models and they asked demographics about education and then that helped find those um you know rust belt voters that were all breaking for trump in a way but
Corey
26:27
but you know the problem with that is you're fitting it always to the last election and you're always fixing towards the last election and you miss the changes in the current election you miss the changes in you know what's the important uh demographic that you should be looking at. You miss the changes on who's a likely voter. There's a lot of reason right now to believe that's what's happening. I've talked for a minute on this fucker. Maybe I'll stop and get Carter's reaction here, but I do want to tell the H&K story about our own- No, no, no. The floor is yours. Keep going. I
Zain
27:00
keep going. Make your case. Make your case, and then I want Carter to take notes and respond. We're doing it different. Okay.
Corey
27:08
Good. I like it. The more I can talk, the better I say.
Corey
27:12
is a real phenomenon, right? Where a pollster goes and they get their results and let's just say one of them says, okay, I actually have Harris up five. Oh, everyone else has Harris only up by one. I'm going to look pretty dumb if Donald Trump ends up winning this thing because he often overperforms his polls and it's actually Trump plus two. I'd rather my poll set plus one. So, what might I be missing? So,
Corey
27:32
So, then they go back into their analysis and they look at what they're cutting it against and and they will say yeah okay well you know this sample's looking a little shaky maybe i need to shore it up maybe i need to go ask 500 more people so they might run up their sample more to see if that changes things they might actually change their demographic weighting most pollsters will try not to do that in the middle of like an election but it's very possible and they they end up getting a result that's the same and they do that out of fear more than um malfeasance I guess that's the thing I would say. And we have experienced this at Hill and Knowlton. So you'll recall in 20, geez, what was it? 12? I believe so. Was it 2012?
Carter
28:12
No, it was after 12.
Corey
28:15
13. 2013, BC election. Adrian Dix was the NDP leader. Christy Clark was the BC liberal leader. Clark, of course, was premier, but was not expected to survive. survive. And basically every pollster was showing the NDP were going to win by a line. High single digits, double digits in some cases. And
Corey
28:37
we had just created a new panel for Hill & Knowlton, just this brand new fresh panel, just recruited all of these people to it. We were working in British Columbia and we ended up getting a result that said the BC Liberals were going to win the election by like two or something like that. I can't remember the exact result.
Corey
28:54
This is now a little bit fogged by time you
Corey
28:58
you remember this stephen oh
Carter
28:59
oh i remember this and i still blame you for it well and maybe you should i mean i might have been guilty but mostly tell the story i'm
Corey
29:07
i'm curious what would
Zain
29:08
corey about because well
Corey
29:09
well because here's what happened so we end up seeing that the bc liberals are up and
Corey
29:13
and we talked to our colleagues in the bc office who all hate christy clark at the time right yeah
Corey
29:19
maybe hates strong but are not enthusiasts of christy clarks right and um and
Corey
29:25
and they're like they're absolutely not your poll is bullshit you have debased this company you've embarrassed ourselves there's no way that this just puts our entire panel into like ill repute right like it just looks bad because we're going to be so wrong if this number goes out so
Corey
29:42
so we go back and i can't remember exactly what we reweighted it on but we looked at all of our weights and we reconsidered it and and we ended up with a model that still had a much lower NDP number than others, but we ended up with saying like, oh, the NDP are going to win this by a little bit, right?
Corey
30:02
And ultimately, even that result was considered by our colleagues, like a little bit too out there. So we buried it and we ended up running as the kind of the headline number. I don't know, we were saying like BC liberal voters are more likely to do X, BC NDP voters more likely to do Y.
Carter
30:17
Wasn't it Starbucks versus Tim Hortons? Starbucks versus
Corey
30:20
versus Tim Hortons. You're exactly right. Like just that kind of nonsense. And we absolutely buried the number.
Corey
30:26
So two things we did there. One, we buried the number we ended up with even after the reviewing of the model. Two, we reviewed the model. And if we just stuck to our guns, we would have been one of very, very few people to call that one right. Right.
Zain
30:41
Corey, you've put a little, I actually will stop you there. So you've put out your first point, which is the polls. And you're talking about how there may have been correction in these round of polls to help with what happened in the last couple of elections with Trump. But there's also this hurting effect that we're seeing amongst pollsters across the United States. Yeah.
Corey
31:01
Yeah. And they're fighting the last election. So the three things I would say about the polls that should make you say a poll that only has somebody up by one isn't worth anything, right?
Corey
31:11
One is there's the risk of hurting. Two is they are building their models towards last election, which is not this election.
Corey
31:19
And I don't know, maybe there's not a three. Maybe I just thought I started with three and I only have two.
Zain
31:24
No, I do all the time like Rick Perry.
Zain
31:26
It kills a political career. Someone remembers that. Carter, give me the beginning of your case. I'll go back to Corey to get more evidence, more arguments more reasons around why kamala harris is going to win on tuesday but carter start with me with yours and you could start with a rebuttal if you want no no but get started with me on why donald john trump uh
Zain
31:51
uh will be the the next president of the united
Carter
31:53
well i'll tell you something first of all my initial prediction about this made way too much of the fact that there was going to be uh senate races in almost all the swing states and if you take a look at those senate races what you see is an average like for example wisconsin democrat plus two ohio democrat plus one pennsylvania democrat plus three minnesota demo democrat plus four i mean those are all the states that she needs to win if if kamala harris won those states then she would be the president but because i placed far too much weight in that i'm wrong wrong. And Trump is going to win. Now, the second thing that I did... I don't feel
Corey
32:36
feel like you're honestly arguing. I don't feel you're legitimately arguing. The
Carter
32:40
second thing that I did is
Carter
32:42
is I put an awful lot of weight in this idea that Robinson is going to lose to Stein for the North Carolina governor's race. And he's going to lose. He's going to lose big time. So Stein is going to win. Robinson is going to lose. And I thought to myself you know what i think that that's going to have some sort of impact on trump but that's
Carter
33:03
that's bullshit i've been wrong the whole time so there is no way that that's going to have any actual impact and then just yesterday was it yesterday or the day before and seltzer who is probably the the dean of the the polling community actually did come out with that one in 20 poll that cory's talking about she also pulls on a random selection that corey was just talking about she doesn't do any waiting what she does is she fills it up using random dials she fills up her slots of what she just to be clear so
Zain
33:37
so everyone understands what you're talking about this is an iowa poll that has this is an iowa
Carter
33:40
iowa poll and seltzer who's someone who always gets iowa right or at least for the last decade i think for the last 20 years she may have missed once but she gets iowa right right all the time. And she has now got Harris up in Iowa, which is insanity. There is no way that Harris is going to win in Iowa. I don't care what Ann Seltzer says. She's clearly a Trump hater. Trump himself said today that Seltzer hates him. I don't know why, but just for shits and giggles, let's say that Pennsylvania did fall, right? What
Zain
34:18
What do you mean by
Zain
34:18
Just to be clear. Fall
Carter
34:19
Fall to Harris, but it's not going to, right? It's obviously going to go to Trump.
Carter
34:26
But Nevada, Iowa, and North Carolina now
Carter
34:31
now all went to Harris. That's a second way that Harris could win. Now,
Carter
34:38
two ways of winning still doesn't match infinite ways of losing. She's going to lose because there is no mechanism available to her to win because Donald Trump has all the fucking and bros which brings me to my fourth point which was i listened to the daily on friday and wanted to kill myself yeah
Zain
34:56
yeah i think i heard that one is this about the uh the local uh
Zain
35:02
folks signed up in in in where was this nevada it's
Carter
35:05
it's everywhere they've taken
Carter
35:07
taken over they there's a group of people who are responsible for a great piece of
Zain
35:11
of journalism by the way and yeah
Carter
35:13
yeah it's a great piece of journalism please listen to the daily if you don't have if you haven't yet
Carter
35:19
but um bottom line the republicans hold the power to uh to
Carter
35:24
to re you know certify these results and they're certifiable
Carter
35:28
certifiable so they're not going to certify these results so even if harris was winning they're
Carter
35:35
they're going to say no this these results aren't going to get certified it's going to go to the supreme court of of of the united states and the supreme court of the united states is going to to say donald
Carter
35:46
donald trump wins all of this brings me back to donald trump is going to win so that's four concise points not to mention not to mention the reliance on men male voters male
Carter
36:00
male voters are reliable voters look at the three of us we showed up on time we're reliable that's what we can count on reliable voters for donald j trump donald j trump wins not by a lot let's not go crazy but in the electoral college he winds up winning at least 300.
Zain
36:21
carter give me your strongest point out of the four to nine that you made the
Carter
36:27
the strongest point yeah
Zain
36:28
yeah what's your strongest point for don there
Carter
36:30
there are so many split to ticket voters people who choose to vote for multiple for Democrats at the state level
Carter
36:40
and Republicans at the national level, that these polls
Carter
36:47
polls actually make sense.
Carter
36:50
The split ticket voter, the
Carter
36:52
the ones who are half for Trump and half for reality,
Carter
36:56
those people are the ones that we have to be the most concerned about.
Carter
37:01
Because if there is no split ticket voter, voter, which
Carter
37:04
which is what I said earlier, but I was wrong, because I have been wrong on every other prediction I've ever made, this
Carter
37:12
this is why Donald Trump is going to win. I
Zain
37:14
I really need to now test you. Do you fundamentally believe Trump is going to win?
Zain
37:22
You can't tell either, can you, Corey?
Corey
37:24
I think he believes Donald Trump will win. I do. Look at him. He's got fear in his eyes.
Carter
37:31
No, I have less fear in my eyes, because if Harris wins, we also wind up with civil war.
Carter
37:37
Whereas if Donald Trump wins, the Democrats aren't going to go to civil war. The Democrats will be angry, but what did they do when Gore lost? They pouted.
Carter
37:47
didn't give a shit. They lost two elections to that guy.
Zain
37:51
don't give a shit.
Zain
37:53
Corey, I've got some strategy questions heading into the final 48
Zain
37:57
48 hours here, but But I think Carter's points are interesting. I think there's some natural reasons just to kind of make this a bit of a summary episode in terms of why Trump could win, right? Like economic concerns of the Biden era and Harris being an extension of Biden in that regard, right? No sort of party has held power when the incumbent's approval rating has been as low as Biden's has, right? So you have that fatigue. You have, frankly, the electoral
Zain
38:24
electoral college strategy that they have going on with the Sunbelts. There's messaging on immigration and holding Harris responsible for that. There are material reasons where you could see why Donald Trump, this should be a Republican year. A generic Republican should be able to take a Biden or a Harris here. Of course, the Trump factor adds a lot to it. There are legitimate reasons why Trump should win, in addition to what Carter was talking about around split tickets here.
Zain
38:51
But Corey, you can respond to anything you've heard from Carter or continue making your case and those might be one and the same.
Corey
38:56
Yeah. I mean, what a grab bag of things that are actually reasons Harris could be doing better and things where Trump has legitimately probably got the advantage like the Supreme Court of the United States. Yeah.
Corey
39:08
Look, there's other things that I think are those signs of hope in these closing days. First of all, Trump's closeout is brutal and his surrogate- Let's talk about the week.
Corey
39:18
been out there stomping
Corey
39:20
stomping on their own dicks all week. It's been crazy, right? Whether it be insulting women voters or deciding that they're going to all dress like garbage. There's a normal look for everybody in middle America, right? Let's just all dress like garbage and go walk around. I mean, none of this stuff exactly exudes strength. Donald Trump is not exuding strength right now. If you wanted probably the, and I mentioned this last episode too, one of the stronger stronger pieces of evidence that Trump is likely to lose. It's that Trump is acting as though he's likely to lose. The way he's acting does not look strong. He
Carter
39:55
He acted this way in 2016. Nothing has changed. His finish in 2016 was as weak as anything else. The only finish he had in 2016 came from the FBI director, Jim Comey, pointing his investigative guns at Hillary Clinton. Clinton.
Corey
40:12
But the other major piece of evidence ... I haven't provided any evidence Harris is going to win yet. All I have said is, hey, the
Corey
40:22
the only reason we think Trump might win really is the polls, because otherwise this man has disqualified himself in a thousand different ways. But I've just made a bit of a case that maybe we shouldn't think too, too hard about that polls. The piece of evidence that exists that Harris is going to win is
Corey
40:39
is the early voting data. data. That
Corey
40:40
That early voting data seems to be
Corey
40:43
be skewing very strongly, very
Corey
40:46
very strongly to the Democrats and Harris right now, just based on the demographics that are showing up, based on what we know, and based on what we can intuit about elections more generally, right? Doesn't look great for Donald Trump there. So that's the main reason I
Corey
41:01
I think that Harris is going to win, the early voting numbers.
Carter
41:05
Yeah. I mean, if you look sideways and squint, than
Carter
41:08
than the early voting numbers look good for Harris. But the truth of the matter is, the Republicans came out in 2016 and 2020 on election day. That's the day that they choose to vote. So
Carter
41:18
So the fact that the Democrats are again winning by a lesser margin than 2016 and 2020 on those advanced votes, you have to squint in order to see an actual victory here. Because the actual victory comes from Trump, who is going to get his vote out because his voters are fanatical. Fanatical.
Corey
41:38
Yeah, well, you're not wrong that Republicans have shifted towards in-person voting.
Zain
41:43
But there's also this added element. We talked about this from the Patreon episode where Elon Musk and others have been delegated to take on the GOTV canvassing operation, and those operations have been pushing early voting a bit as well. We don't know how aggressively on the throttle they've been pushing for early voting, but But we know it's not the bastardization of early voting that happened in 2020, where they talked about it as being fraudulent and otherwise. Trump's kind of backed off that rhetoric a bit. So if you can also think about early voting being part of the Republican mix, and so if that's the case, the point becomes even stronger for Harris that Republicans are not just sitting out early voting. Some of them have encouraged friends, family, and others to go vote early, and you still see this massive gender split. But I do want to go to you on this, Carter, because you talked about male voters being reliable. Tell me more.
Carter
42:37
Male voters are reliable.
Zain
42:40
I don't, like, seriously?
Carter
42:42
Men are more reliable than women. What
Zain
42:48
just waiting for him to just acknowledge that he's fucking with us on that point, at least that point alone.
Carter
42:56
mean if you think about it men have been dominating the electoral system since there was an electoral system we've
Carter
43:03
we've given the vote to women absolutely but there is okay well we had to because we were the only ones with the vote right
Carter
43:12
gave the vote to women but
Carter
43:14
but we kept control of the household and by having control of the household we had control of the of both votes Okay.
Corey
43:22
I know you're doing a thing. You're doing a bit, but if this is the episode that gets you canceled, I'm not even going to know what to think about that. Let
Zain
43:30
Let me rescue you with actually two strategy questions that I hope both of you can participate in with vigor. Carter, if
Zain
43:38
if you are Kamala right now, do
Zain
43:41
do you want people to know about your Iowa polling or
Zain
43:47
And Corey, Corey, same question to you in a second.
Carter
43:51
You do. You do, of course. Strategically
Zain
43:52
Strategically explain to me why. Because
Carter
43:54
Because it looks like there's been a shift. It
Carter
43:56
It looks like a reputable pollster has caught something that no one else has caught. Because everybody else is hurting. Corey's points are all good. I mean, they're just wrong.
Carter
44:05
They're not, you know, he's not pulling things out of his tushy just to make things up. What he is doing is he's pointing out valid points about polling. polling. The thing is that Trumpdom
Carter
44:19
Trumpdom doesn't give a shit about polling. Trumpdom is set up. So if I'm Harris, I'm making sure that everybody knows that there's a late shift in places as diverse as Iowa. That shift will be showing up in the coming days. And that's what we'll see on Tuesday. That would be my closing message. The shift is happening.
Carter
44:43
Unfortunately Unfortunately for Harris, it's one poll in Iowa.
Carter
44:49
I mean, Iowa has six electoral votes.
Carter
44:53
It's just not a significant player in this election. It's
Carter
44:59
It's just not. No,
Carter
45:00
I mean, the whole
Zain
45:01
whole thing with- I just want to acknowledge that the phrase, a place as diverse in Iowa was uttered by Carter. No,
Carter
45:07
No, what I meant by diverse is that it's Republican. It's Republican. That
Corey
45:12
That would make sense that that's your idea of diversity, yes.
Carter
45:18
I think- Listen, there are many types of Republicans. There are bro Republicans. There
Zain
45:23
- You mean like reliable bro Republicans? There
Carter
45:26
There are evangelical Republicans. There are rich Republicans. There
Carter
45:33
There are poor Republicans.
Zain
45:36
sounds like- There are even now- It sounds like the most terrible sermon on the mountain. there
Carter
45:41
are even now black republicans there
Zain
45:45
you go what a world we
Zain
45:47
cory you wanted to you wanted to opine about the the ever diverse iowa
Zain
45:52
yeah and it's the same strategic question because there is a case to be made but you don't
Corey
45:56
don't want people to know let's unpack it zane yeah
Corey
45:59
it like there's there's basically two arguments here one is you want to create that excitement and that feeling of momentum and momentum begets momentum so you want to be be showing momentum in these last couple of days the other argument is you
Corey
46:13
you might actually be creating that that that uh you know counter attack you might be creating it well even i think in this election less the sense that she's got it which to me reads more as that's what democrats might think and more the republicans thinking oh fuck she might actually have a chance here we've really got to double our efforts and we've got to push in and i think that's a cousin of it but sure yeah Yeah, man alive. I've seen that myself. I've been guilty of that myself, where I've created campaign literature that has encouraged people to think about a close race and in the process of doing so probably made it not close in ways that have not been helpful. right it happens and so if you're the harris campaign you've got to figure out which one provides more upside and i actually do agree with steven here
Corey
46:59
the republicans have effectively said any poll that says donald trump is losing is bullshit so we can safely tune them out so i actually don't know that it's likely to create that backlash you know that backlash would have to come from a place of real fear and real anxiety that the poll is real and if they're not willing to believe that then you don't actually have to worry about that as much even if a significant portion are not willing to do that so if i'm harris i'm putting this poll everywhere i also think it's pretty consistent with the messaging i've been saying since i've been nominated when we fight we win when we vote we win look at these numbers the question is not is iowa with us the question is are you iowans willing to show up and stand and be counted because then we win and i i think that's really powerful and i certainly think it's a bit of an antidote to some of the bedwetting that's been going on for the past i mean who's gonna lose their nerve and think trump's gonna win i don't know crazy that somebody might take that position but so many people have been worried about donald trump winning in the past couple of weeks and this is a chance to say no no put
Corey
48:00
put on your your your big boy or your big girl pants and let's go let's get this election done let's get to the polls let's line up let's take whatever time it takes let's do anything that we need to do to get our neighbors out to vote to get our mothers out to vote to go get our cousins out to vote to get our friends to get our co-workers whatever needs to be done needs to be done american democracy does not get a second chance here and and i think that that's really powerful american
Carter
48:27
american democracy does not deserve a second chance cory right
Carter
48:31
right like the fact that this is so i was doing a
Corey
48:34
a thing you know you could have put violin music behind what I was saying there and
Carter
48:38
and you had to come in with your
Carter
48:41
Listen, I do regret my earlier confidence in Harris. That is something I regret now.
Carter
48:49
But this is the reality. The reality is that Trump has always been outside of the system in the way that the system is supposed to work. He
Carter
49:01
He wasn't supposed to win in 2016. I
Carter
49:03
I mean, sure, we all went back and justified it, rationalized it.
Zain
49:09
about rural whites. We changed the weighting. We listened to J.D. Vance
Zain
49:13
stories. We tried to examine and figure out what we missed in our soul searching. Yeah, you're right, Carter. Collectively, the electorate and the pundit class and the political class did all of that.
Zain
49:26
is there a but?
Corey
49:27
Is there a but?
Corey
49:31
Trump's going to win.
Corey
49:33
here's my next strategic question carter i'm going to start with you on this one harris
Zain
49:35
harris seems to be ending on a positive note not mentioning trump at
Zain
49:41
at the same time trump has had arguably
Zain
49:43
arguably the worst close one could ever imagine in a presidential campaign starting with the the msg rally all the way to yesterday filleting a mic belated a mic crazy crazy shit garbage week was in between um it was not a good week objectively now you might say that there's There's polling out there, and there is, that suggests that character and other things poll extremely low in this election, that that may not necessarily impact him, but he's doing crazy shit, Carter, unhinged
Zain
50:11
unhinged stuff. She's ending on a positive note. I can't speak for tomorrow. Record on a Sunday. I don't know what her final, final close tomorrow will be, but she
Zain
50:20
she seems to be talking not much about him and more about the us, the we, the them. There's arguments to be made on both sides. Stephen Carter, the strategist, is she making the right call here? I
Carter
50:29
I mean, sure. She's going on Saturday Night Live. She's got all the stars supporting her. Good for her. They're hitting her with puffball sketches that she's able to knock out of the park. I'm proud of her. I mean, good for her. But it doesn't matter because it's Donald Trump. And Donald Trump has never needed to perform in a normal way in order to win. Donald Trump behaves like the lunatic that he is and he's able to pull it off that's what his so
Zain
51:00
so my question to you is how should she be performing should she be ending on this positive close or should she be bringing him into the conversation until the clock strikes whenever you know 8 p.m npm she behaves
Carter
51:11
behaves it doesn't matter because in some some elections you are able to win i've said this i think i said this after the surrey election some some elections you're able to win and some elections you're you were never destined to win. Kamala Harris is in an election that she was never destined to win.
Zain
51:29
Wow. Okay. Corey, talk to me about the strategy here. I'm curious, and also if you have reactions to what Carter's saying here on
Corey
51:39
A few minutes ago, you were talking about how the overall conditions of this race, if you look at those macro conditions, which have been so determinant for so many elections objections around the economy, around anxiety about good track, bad track for the country, around issues like immigration boiling up. They favor Republican traditions or conditions. This should be a Republican cycle.
Corey
52:03
This should be a Republican cycle, right? And it might
Corey
52:07
might be, but it should be, right? So the question then becomes, where does victory come from? What does victory look like if you're going to break that cycle why is this possibly even a race as i believe well i don't know i think harris has just got this but why would it even possibly be a race right and the answer is donald trump there is a certain fatigue with donald trump there's a certain unease and it was with donald trump harris's
Corey
52:31
harris's victory will come from people wanting something different from that fatigue just hitting a boiling point right so who's undecided who's a late breaker what are they going to be deciding on what are they concerned about at the time where donald trump is filleting a mic and just giving i
Carter
52:45
i laughed at that i thought that was funny
Corey
52:52
and giving every unhinged thought in his head including saying i think as recently as today he should have just never left the white house when he lost the election that was a mistake that he left the white house jesus
Carter
53:03
jesus i missed that yeah
Carter
53:04
that was today is
Corey
53:05
is trying to create a
Corey
53:07
contrast and so this positivity this idea of breaking with this god-awful muck of a politics that america has been mired in since 2015 when donald trump decided to run for the primary i don't think that's a bad idea i think that's smart and i think it's smart not because i think that it is usually the best tactic but when you are trying to create that contrast at a moment where if you're still undecided what who are you what are you but if you are i think this is the kind of thing undecideds might resonate with it's just part of why i do believe it's on the table
Corey
53:40
that she uh that she just utterly crushes this guy here's
Carter
53:43
here's the thing you're you're using this they might resonate when
Carter
53:47
when we know how what resonates what resonates is donald trump donald
Carter
53:51
donald trump resonates with his audience and he doesn't need to not fillate the mic right
Carter
54:00
doesn't need to not do
Corey
54:00
do it because he's going to do it because he's going to do it the guy mike Mike, he's going to give it a blow job.
Carter
54:04
First, he started off with a little bit of a hand job. It was pretty impressive. Yeah, he did. He moved on, right?
Carter
54:10
right? And the whole, I should never have left, that means reinforcing the thing that is his number one negative, reinforcing that with two days to go to the election, good job, it's Donald Trump, it doesn't matter, it's his election to win because some elections you win and some elections you can never win. win.
Carter
54:31
And that's where Harris finds herself.
Carter
54:34
She's done everything right, but nothing will work.
Zain
54:37
I'm going to leave that segment there, moving on to our over, under, and our lightning round. Stephen Carter, we do it for you, even though sometimes you're playing a long 40-minute bit that we may not know about.
Zain
54:49
are you in or are you out on this new Harris ad that is suggesting to Republican women that whatever happens in the booth is your own business, and that you don't have to listen to your mega husband. Have you guys seen this ad? Do you guys know what I'm referring to?
Zain
55:04
You don't have to listen to your mega husband, then you could vote for Harris-Walls in the
Carter
55:07
the booth. I referred to
Carter
55:08
to it earlier when I was talking about how men have control of their households. Yeah,
Zain
55:12
Yeah, great, great. Are you in or out on that strategy? Not the ad. Do
Carter
55:16
Do I need to
Carter
55:16
be in or out? I mean, it is a fact. It is truth.
Carter
55:21
And Donald Trump is playing the truth and and harris is trying to undo honesty cory
Zain
55:28
cory are you getting around on this i
Corey
55:30
i i think i'm in on it you know it's funny because i was so aggressively out over the manitoba pc saying hey it's your choice in the ballot box but that was and
Corey
55:42
so you know call me on it if you think this is just the same thing and i'm being a hypocrite here it is similar i had a very dark sort of like well the suggestion there
Corey
55:50
there was yeah hey look i i know that people are calling us a little racist but you're free to vote for us like it's okay to vote for us right whereas this is more you have your own vote you don't have to vote the way somebody in your house says you're gonna you
Zain
56:05
you can protect your rights sort of
Corey
56:06
protect your rights you can do what you want to do and
Corey
56:09
and that does feel different to me but maybe it only feels different to me because i'm sympathetic to one argument and not the other versus the other yeah but uh i i do think it's not bad i do wonder if that might create a bit of a backlash a bunch of lunatic megas saying to their wives how did you vote show me your ballot before you drop it in the ballot box that kind of madness but i
Corey
56:32
i don't know i mean it it's not crazy and i love more than anything that it made trump and his surrogates go go crazy in ways that are deeply unhelpful and deeply misogynistic. Yes. Yes. Donald Trump
Carter
56:46
Trump himself looked over to check and see how Melania- Yeah,
Corey
56:50
Yeah, I saw that. Right?
Carter
56:51
Right? Eric Trump looked over to see how his wife voted. This is the new reality that women face, right?
Carter
56:57
right? Men looking over- Ever since we gave
Zain
57:00
gave them the vote. I
Carter
57:01
I mean, it's no coincidence that this cardboard is short because men are taller.
Zain
57:12
great kate carter i'll start with you on this one does your guy donald john trump yeah
Zain
57:18
um who's who you say is gonna win my
Carter
57:20
my guy he's gonna win like let's be clear i'm not supporting him i'm just pointing out how this is gonna go we'll
Zain
57:26
we'll all become clear and familiar with the john king electoral map and math and we'll all know about allegheny county uh tuesday more so than we ever want to um but carter the magic number is 270 does
Zain
57:38
does your guy the
Zain
57:39
the guy you're saying is gonna win get over to 90 to
Carter
57:44
he gets over 300 like 315 boy
Zain
57:47
boy does she get over to 90 yeah
Corey
57:50
i think in her victory 40 is on the table um
Zain
57:53
um carter this is really about you know um this final question an ability to have a redo if you want it who's going to win the election on tuesday night donald
Zain
58:01
donald j trump corey's
Zain
58:04
corey's gonna win on tuesday night kamala
Corey
58:06
kamala harris keep calm and harrison on.
Zain
58:10
We're going to leave it there. That's a wrap on episode 1834 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Velji. With me, as always, Corey Hogan and the master predictor, Stephen Carter. And we'll see you next time.