Transcript
Zain
0:01
This is a strategist episode 1830. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Here's some for some Friday afternoon. That makes
Carter
0:11
makes me incredibly uncomfortable when you say
Zain
0:13
say it like that. I don't
Carter
0:14
don't know how I feel about that myself. You're
Zain
0:15
You're wearing a suit, so this is some role play.
Corey
0:20
got off work, brother.
Corey
0:20
I'm a busy guy. I'm still at work.
Carter
0:24
That's how busy I am.
Corey
0:26
you're sitting in your house okay but wearing the same thing you always wear it's
Corey
0:31
fluid for you it's
Corey
0:32
work it's always fluid it's always
Carter
0:34
i could get a text at any moment
Carter
0:38
no but i could this
Zain
0:38
this is in 2011 or 12
Zain
0:47
wow is that what you bet or did you mean something else score no i don't know what i just took it and yeah it was
Zain
0:54
intended to be really
Carter
0:56
really really cutting thank you uh
Zain
1:00
well we've as as any afternoon delay we've got a hard stop um and uh three minutes it's three minutes good hey uh we got a choice we got to go east to west or west to east what do you guys want to do because we want to cover three topics today carter i'm going to let you you choose do you want to do you want to start in bc and end in ottawa or do you want to start in ottawa and in bc boy
Carter
1:22
boy it's hard to tell i i think we should start in ottawa and in bc like the uh like the sun go as the sun would go oh
Zain
1:29
oh you want to go
Zain
1:30
you want to chase and
Corey
1:31
and grow up with
Corey
1:32
with the podcast perfect
Zain
1:32
perfect let's let's let's talk about it steven carter i don't even know what the segment is called let's call it mount rushmore part two because you guys loved that last time didn't you love it yeah
Zain
1:41
carter it's getting more serious christy clark is coming out of the woodwork the The MPs are now saying they're going to bring all of this up to caucus. The rumored number has gone from 20 to 47. That's what's been floated online. Is it more? Is it less? Some are hearing that cabinet ministers are on it. The momentum seems to be getting stronger. Now there's a date, Carter, next week where their revolt is going to begin against Justin Trudeau at the caucus meeting. You're hearing people are going to storm the mics, make a plea, present the letter. Who knows? knows. Carter, it's
Carter
2:19
No, this is very serious. And you can tell it's serious because the prime minister's office is countering.
Carter
2:27
start talking about an imminent cabinet shuffle,
Carter
2:31
I think that these cabinet ministers that are not returning in the next election, I think that that's been known for a while. Those names have been rumored in my orbit. I forgot to mention
Zain
2:42
week as well. Yeah.
Carter
2:42
Yeah. And I think that the prime minister's office released those names. So to tell
Carter
2:48
tell everybody, the 40 odd people or whatever, however many people are associated
Carter
2:52
associated with this letter at this particular moment, to tell them, hey, listen, if
Carter
2:57
if this continues, you're not going to get a cabinet position if this continues. I've
Carter
3:03
I've got a cabinet reshuffle happening. Who
Carter
3:06
Who wants Who wants cabinet? Who wants cabinet? I can see that kind of action from the prime minister's
Carter
3:11
So I think that this is real. I
Carter
3:12
I think that this is a big number. I think that if it's in the 40s, I mean, this is everything that Corey and I chatted about last time. I think that this is a real number of, in terms, especially when you consider the number of people who are available to be
Carter
3:29
be participants in this. Now, if there are cabinet ministers, then
Carter
3:32
then the game is really afoot. If there's cabinet ministers, then we're
Carter
3:36
we're talking a whole different level.
Zain
3:38
Corey, give me a quick take and then I want to put you on Teams for a very special task.
Corey
3:43
Mr. Trudeau, how did you lose your prime ministership?
Corey
3:46
Well, son, two ways, gradually, then suddenly, right? Like, it feels like it's all like after years of slow decline and years of increased grumbling, it's like, boom,
Corey
3:56
boom, it's just happening. And, you know, I
Corey
3:58
I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing for the liberal party. I go back to like, this is so bloody
Corey
4:03
bloody late. And the chaos this introduces is so fucking
Corey
4:06
fucking crazy. But it
Corey
4:08
it seems to be happening. Like at this point, I think you have to like the odds have to be he is not prime minister by
Corey
4:14
by the end of October at this point. And that's, that's
Corey
4:18
that's really wild. And that's obviously going to foundationally change things in this country in a number of significant ways. days. And yeah, I mean, last time we talked was only Sunday,
Corey
4:32
And the number was rumored to be in the 20s at that point. And I thought that was a big number. You made the case around why 20 was a big
Corey
4:40
Yeah, 40 or 50 is like unreal. Like that's a level of caucus dissent.
Corey
4:45
Most leaders can't survive if it's public, right? And I would say what's
Corey
4:49
what's interesting from this point forward is how,
Corey
4:52
how, I don't know, how can I phrase this?
Corey
4:56
I guess how stubborn he's going to be because this is not a level that you are surviving in anything except like a
Corey
5:02
a de jure sense, right? You might still technically be the prime minister. You might still technically be the leader, but you've lost all moral authority. You've lost all de facto authority to get anything done.
Corey
5:15
at that point, it's just like, you can't make me, I'm around. I'm just going to take this ship down how messy can we make it shut the fuck up and get back in the bus and let me lose this election in peace it's
Corey
5:25
it's the best he can get because
Corey
5:27
because the minute it becomes publicly report i mean we might be there just with the reporting we have but the minute it becomes publicly reported
Corey
5:34
almost a third of your caucus is standing up and asking you to go you're
Corey
5:40
you're already gone you just haven't realized it yeah yeah
Zain
5:43
yeah and you add
Zain
5:44
add on a few additional layers right you have the the um The National Post today saying that one of Khrushchev's closest advisors, former advisors, one would imagine at least some blessing or consent from Khrushchev himself, is suggesting that the prime minister needs to leave. Okay, analysis we covered last time and we'll get to cover there on in. I want to put you on two separate teams. Carter, you are team Justin Trudeau, PMO Friday evening. Corey, you are team Pierre
Zain
6:13
Pierre Pauliev, Friday evening. evening.
Zain
6:16
Corey, your task is to save Justin Trudeau.
Zain
6:20
Carter, your task is to save Justin Trudeau.
Zain
6:25
How are you saving Justin Trudeau? And Corey, you can fight with me on the premise of the task I have given you, but I do think there is a world in which you may want to think about this fine Friday evening as Team Pure Polyev around saving Justin Trudeau. But before you get back to me with your response, Corey, I'm going to start with Carter. Carter, first moves, what What are you thinking about Friday evening? This thing happens Wednesday. This thing ultimately is already happening to you. Talk to me about what the Trudeau War Room is doing tonight.
Carter
6:53
This is, you're writing 21 days up on the board and you're going to say, how do we survive 21 days?
Carter
7:00
Here's what's going to happen.
Carter
7:02
We know that we're not going to do anything on Monday and Tuesday. We're
Carter
7:04
We're waiting for Wednesday. Wednesday is the explosion. If
Carter
7:07
If we can survive Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, just make it to the weekend. end then
Carter
7:13
we've got ourselves a ball game because
Carter
7:15
because this is just and and survival just means not getting
Carter
7:20
getting dragged down by by
Carter
7:21
by your caucus um
Carter
7:24
you know you you can start to minimize it you can start to hint that there's going to be a shuffle in
Carter
7:28
fact i would say that next sunday there's
Carter
7:31
there's going to be a cabinet shuffle um
Carter
7:32
um that might be how i get through my my
Carter
7:35
my uh my wednesday or my you know is announcing on tuesday that
Carter
7:39
that there's going to be a cabinet shuffle there
Carter
7:41
there there's going to be changes in this government i'm i'm hearing what's being said and
Carter
7:45
and i'm going to make all the changes that need to be made and
Carter
7:48
and then next week if
Carter
7:49
if we make it to next week we
Carter
7:51
we set up a five-day strategy to survive next week um
Carter
7:54
um all you need to do all
Carter
7:56
all you need to do is get to mid you know early november and
Carter
8:00
and this thing is going to the ship writes itself um
Carter
8:06
you run out this clock. Is that right?
Carter
8:08
That's all you have to do. If I'm in Justin Trudeau's office right now,
Carter
8:12
it literally is saying 21
Carter
8:15
how are we going to do it?
Carter
8:17
How do we survive it?
Carter
8:18
What's our best case scenario on each of those 21 days?
Carter
8:21
And I'm going to write it down literally day by day. What's my talking point? What's my message? What's their talking point? What's their message? I don't have to defeat it.
Carter
8:31
I just have to not succumb to it.
Zain
8:35
bunch of calls this weekend? Are you calling your caucus? Are you giving them a heads up? Are you doing some of the stuff you guys indicated last time? Is it too late or is it not a good time? I think it's a
Carter
8:46
a bunker time. I
Carter
8:47
I think it's bunker time for the next three or four days and then just stay in the bunker and
Carter
8:52
and then come out of the bunker, take your beating on Wednesday
Carter
8:55
and come out of it saying it was a productive session.
Carter
9:01
heard what was said and I know we're going to be making some changes to accommodate them.
Carter
9:06
the changes are going to start with a cabinet shuffle on
Carter
9:10
on Sunday or Wednesday of next week, whatever we decide in my little cabal
Carter
9:16
But literally, Zane, all I'm trying to do is make it 21 days.
Zain
9:23
Corey, I've given you a task. Do you accept it?
Corey
9:28
guess I do, because I think it's a really interesting thought experiment. But I I don't believe, and look, the better the devil you know, we saw that even with, we were talking about the Alberta NDP and Jason Kenney a couple of weeks ago, but
Corey
9:42
but I don't think he should be afraid of this particular chaos for the same reason why I think that the liberals are probably doing this, executing this too late, you know, too, too late.
Corey
9:53
you have to assume if he steps down, if there's going to be a leadership, I
Corey
9:56
I don't know, you don't really have to prorogue, but it's going to be pretty tough if you don't prorogue. there's just a lot going on. And I think you can maximize that to your advantage if you happen to be Pierre Polyev. But let's say you want to save Justin Trudeau.
Corey
10:09
Well, if you do, Carter is 100% right.
Corey
10:12
Time is his friend. With time, his prognosis gets a lot better. And while I'm not sure 21 days is the number that I would pick,
Corey
10:19
it's not so far off the number I would pick that I'm going to argue about it. Let's just agree on Carter's 21 days. You want to help the prime minister survive 21 days. And
Corey
10:29
And if he survives to next weekend, he's
Corey
10:31
he's got a pretty good shot at 21 days. He's got a pretty clear path. So your job next week is
Corey
10:37
is to help him get to the weekend.
Corey
10:39
And you have a few tools at your disposal that allow you to do this. And the primary one you have is you can help him create either a victory, or if you're not willing to give him that, a crisis, which breaks the media cycle, the day of this caucus revolt, right? Caucus revolt, 10 a.m. in the morning.
Corey
10:58
Pierre Polyev has to fire a candidate who has been, you know, foreignly influenced, 8
Corey
11:05
8 p.m. that evening. What do you think we're all going to be talking about? It's a real crisis. Pierre Polyev says, okay, we've got to come back to the table on this. I've just been made aware of new information.
Corey
11:14
Let's do this. Like you, I mean, I'm not saying it has to be that, but I'm saying it has to be be something of that significance. And maybe even accepting you're going to take some short-term pain for the long-term joy of beating Justin Trudeau at the ballot box. And I think that's available to you. I think that's not an unrealistic thing that the leader of the opposition could construct or craft. Doesn't need to be on foreign interference, but
Corey
11:36
but that might be a great one to take out the trash if you have any on it. That's for sure. Do
Zain
11:40
Do you do this, Corey? Now take your your strategy and the position I put you in and tell me, does Pierre Polyev do something like this heading into next week? Or does he let Justin Trudeau just die if
Corey
11:53
- I don't think so. I mean, the standard advice always in
Corey
11:57
in these moments is when
Corey
12:00
when your opponents lighten themselves on fire, don't get in their way, right? Just let them do it. So I don't really see what the benefit is.
Corey
12:08
I already talked about the fact that Trudeau could just decide to stick stick around. So that's a possibility. And if you don't want to go so far as, as,
Corey
12:16
as, you know, damaging yourself or creating a moment, you
Corey
12:20
you could probably just get under the guy's skin a little bit and say, yeah, Justin Trudeau, he's going to be deposed by his party. You know, the guy's too weak to stand on. Like, look at just in the face of a cup, like we wouldn't call them backbenchers because that'll create problems with your own caucus. But in the face of a bit of liberal opposition, he'll
Corey
12:37
he'll crumble because he's weak, you know, like almost call him a chicken chicken right go to marty mcfly style like in the movie dave where uh you know dave's opponent marty mcfly was always goading him i think that's what happened that was so good it was
Zain
12:51
was one of my favorite parts of dave um it
Zain
12:54
it was at the beginning wasn't yeah
Corey
12:57
you know it was only in the second dave movie i think this is actually one of the interesting retcons dave
Corey
13:02
dave didn't really care about being called a chicken in the first movie only
Corey
13:06
cared in the second and third like it just didn't make any sense to me dave
Zain
13:09
dave dave gets it they've
Corey
13:10
they've always got it
Zain
13:12
tell me this what
Zain
13:13
what does justin trudeau actually do how
Zain
13:15
how does this actually play out how
Carter
13:20
does this actually play out i mean you guys gave
Zain
13:23
gave really good strategies for what each side should do i thought those were really like complete in in many ways i don't need to belabor the point i asked cory what does pierre do what does justin do yeah
Carter
13:34
yeah i mean justin should, um, I think Justin should be thinking about finding the exit. He should have, he
Carter
13:41
he should have found the exit before it reached this particular moment in time, because you don't want to go out,
Carter
13:46
uh, you know, with your tail between your legs, but that seems to be the direction that he's headed.
Carter
13:51
So my view would be, you
Carter
13:52
you know, that he should have left now
Carter
13:55
leaving. Now it looks pretty horrible. I mean, I think that maybe he should try and negotiate for for some time.
Carter
14:02
You know, give me till Christmas, and I promise that the resignation
Carter
14:06
resignation will be on your desk.
Carter
14:09
But that's probably not going to cut it with the group. If the group is really as strong as it looks
Carter
14:17
looks to be, then
Carter
14:20
then maybe this is the end game for Justin Trudeau.
Zain
14:24
Does he leave without a fight, Carter? Is that a strategic option available to the Prime Minister, That if he sees the writing on the wall, that he leaves before a revolt or a very assertive
Zain
14:35
assertive group comes after him on Wednesday?
Carter
14:39
Zane, he's been fighting for months.
Carter
14:41
He may have been fighting for years. This isn't a new situation. The only thing that's new is that
Carter
14:49
happening within a year of the election.
Zain
14:50
election. Does he provide a ritualistic sacrifice ahead of Wednesday?
Zain
14:55
A chief of staff or something?
Carter
14:57
I don't think he does. I think he does like what Ed Stelmack did. Ed
Carter
15:01
Ed Stelmack's chief of staff, Ron Glenn, was being hounded.
Carter
15:05
hounded. They wanted his head. They wanted him gone.
Carter
15:09
And instead of taking
Carter
15:12
off Ron Glenn's head, Ed
Carter
15:15
Ed Stelmack said, fine, I'm
Carter
15:18
I think that that would probably be where
Carter
15:20
where he leans with Katie Telford instead of allowing her to fall
Carter
15:24
fall on her sword.
Corey
15:26
finish us off. Yeah, I'll say like more practically, even if you're going to give a ritualistic sacrifice, you do it after Wednesday,
Corey
15:34
right? It's got to be in response to that conversation because they're going to do it anyhow. And if you do it just before and they say, not good enough, it's just going to move to the next demand.
Corey
15:42
But if you sit there and you take the slings and arrows for a while and you hear about how shitty you are and how it's time for you to go and how things are not working, you say, you
Corey
15:53
things are not working. So we're making some really big changes now. And these
Corey
15:57
these are the changes.
Corey
16:00
Again, I kind of think it's too late for that. I know even on Monday, I was saying that's the last card you have to play. But I think I also said Monday, that card never really works. So if you're there, you're kind of, you're
Corey
16:17
think he knows it, right? I just don't know if that would be enough at this point. So why be disloyal to somebody who's been so loyal to you when it's not enough to stop the bleeding? We're
Zain
16:27
We're going to leave Ottawa where it belongs. We're going to go travel westward. Let's settle in our home province of Alberta, which is radiating a $7 million ad campaign from the government of Alberta called ScrapTheCap.ca. That sounds familiar, certainly has the same ring as Axe the Tax. This is a $7 million ad campaign being run in Alberta, British Columbia, Nova Scotia, Ontario, I think New Brunswick as well, where Alberta is encouraging folks to sign petitions and let their MPs know that we need to get rid of the emissions cap, which is going to harm the oil and gas sector here in Canada. Corey, let's
Zain
17:05
let's talk about this.
Zain
17:07
Do you like this campaign, both in terms of its execution, but let's start with its strategic intent?
Zain
17:14
Does this make sense to you? Do you like it?
Corey
17:17
Well, let's talk about what that strategic intent is. If it is truly to change minds across the country, no, I think it's dumb as all get out. Because I can't think of a more technical lower salience issue for somebody living in, say, New Brunswick than a
Corey
17:31
a alleged emissions cap in the province of Alberta. What the fuck do you care about that? And you are never going to care about that. That is so, so
Corey
17:42
so out there and so esoteric and so cerebral. April. But
Corey
17:44
But I actually don't, I mean, I obviously don't believe that's actually why the government of Alberta is doing this though. They're doing it for Albertans to show that they're fighting for these things. And they also know it's a bit of a layup because when the government does change next year, as we all expect it to, it
Corey
18:00
it will be scrapped. And they don't need to run a $7 million ad campaign for that to be the case. That would be true even
Corey
18:07
even if they didn't do it, but they'll They'll be able to say, cause, effect, took this action, cap gone, we're fighting for you, we're so fucking awesome. And you'll remember that because you heard all this reporting about this really big campaign that we did. And the size of the campaign is really about communicating to Albertans that there was a campaign of this size. That
Corey
18:26
That is 100%, 100% what the purpose is here. It's a number that sounds really big.
Corey
18:32
It is big. I certainly ran bigger campaigns for the the government of Alberta.
Corey
18:36
But it's a pretty big campaign. Carter,
Zain
18:38
Carter, what do you think? What's
Zain
18:39
What's the strategic intent here? Do you agree with Corey? Is there a different
Zain
18:42
different intent that you see?
Carter
18:45
I mean, the strategic intent was the press conference. The $7 million that are being spent on advertising isn't
Carter
18:52
isn't going to have any real impact. And it's, I
Carter
18:54
mean, to give it a scope piece,
Carter
18:56
piece, it's less than a quarter
Carter
18:58
quarter of what was spent on the war room every year.
Carter
19:01
So this isn't a huge campaign for oil and gas in Alberta in the overall scope of things.
Zain
19:08
In a Canadian-wide media buy context is what you mean. Yeah.
Corey
19:11
Yeah. I mean, it's a big – listen, it's a big – $7 million is a lot of money for most companies in a Canadian campaign. Let's not over – It's
Carter
19:19
It's not compared to the War Room. The old War Room.
Corey
19:22
was all ads though. War Room was staffing and other things too, wasn't it? Well, the War Room never got to that level too. But I will say, to your point, Stephen, I'm going to dispute the specifics, but agree with the general point. The market access campaign that the government of Alberta ran under Rachel Notley, where it was, hey, we've got to keep Canada working, build that pipeline. That was
Corey
19:43
spent over the course of not even a year. That just gives you a sense of the magnitude of one campaign Alberta's run versus another. $7 million is certainly not enough to
Corey
19:57
to fundamentally change public opinions on such a low salience issue where there are such entrenched opinions if you actually have gone to the point of having an opinion. No,
Carter
20:06
No, it was a $7 million press conference. And that was, you
Carter
20:12
that's what it is. They want to make sure that Albertans know that
Carter
20:15
that this money is being spent for them, on them, to
Carter
20:19
to protect them. And you're right. I mean, if and when the government changes next year, depending
Carter
20:24
depending on what happens with the prime
Carter
20:25
prime minister in the next 21 days, then,
Carter
20:32
it's going to go away anyways. So this is a
Carter
20:35
a no-brainer. This is a great idea for the government of Alberta because it pulls the wool over Albertans' eyes yet again. And there's nothing we love better than to be told how great we are and how we're getting screwed over by Ottawa. long.
Corey
20:52
Yeah, look, I think, to
Corey
20:54
to be fair, they probably could have and probably even did market test this and probably came to the conclusion, I show them arguments X, Y, and Z, I talk about this in terms of affordability, then people say, yeah, we shouldn't have this cap, right? And so then they create almost a formula in their minds of, if
Corey
21:12
if I just do these inputs to deliver these arguments, we're going to get these outcomes. But that's not actually how advertising of this nature works because the very first step you have to get past is giving people to give a shit yeah
Corey
21:23
and it's going to be very hard for anybody to give a shit so far removed from this and and like it's just it's just going to be too difficult i have no doubt that canadians would be receptive to the arguments if you could clockwork orange style put them in a chair and force them to see it because
Corey
21:38
because affordability is just such a high concern right now i was uh i was talking to david coletto from abacus and he was talking about a scarcity mindset that set it in the country couldn't agree more uh
Corey
21:50
uh so like they'll be receptive to it but
Corey
21:56
they're never gonna they're never actually gonna get to the point where they're hearing the argument because they don't care about the topic matter overall can
Carter
22:01
can i go to use the agreed upon framing of give a fuck factor instead of give a shit like yeah come on yeah come
Corey
22:08
gaff again yeah i feel like like that's copyright Stephen Carter. I would allow
Carter
22:13
you to use it as rebranding.
Zain
22:14
Collecting royalty checks on it. Hey, listen, before we talk about the specifics of this campaign, Corey's already started assessing the creative and the strategy. And I want to ask you guys how you'd make it better if the goal was indeed to persuade Canadians. But before we get there, talk to me about the provincial Alberta strategy of the lack of penalty that one pays as government for running issue
Zain
22:41
issue-based campaigns with your tax dollar. And
Zain
22:44
And so the question I ultimately have is, can the government just keep doing this over and over again, right? Can they find another issue? Because they can find a dozen of these issues. Niche, small, not necessarily have a high GAF, but they can run a dozen of these campaigns. Is there a diminishing marginal return, not in terms of its value to Canadians and its persuadability on the issue. But as it relates to showing
Zain
23:08
showing that they're doing something and then taking credit for it, Carter, what is the diminishing return of this particular tactic, this ad campaign tactic, especially when it's hard-nosed, aggressive issue focus like this is, and really has a very clear fuck the feds undertone?
Carter
23:27
I think that there's no diminishing challenging return on it. I think that this is one of the great political strategies available to all Canadian governments, and that's to screw the level of government above you or screw the level of government below you.
Carter
23:43
I mean, you've got Doug
Carter
23:45
Doug Ford taking out the bike lanes. You've got Doug Ford, you know, like the
Carter
23:49
the battle that exists between the province and the city of Calgary over the green line.
Carter
23:54
Every level of government can fight the level of government above it or below it and say they are doing something wrong. And
Carter
24:01
And the consequence is zero.
Carter
24:04
In fact, the general population seems to like when
Carter
24:07
when the governments fight each other more than almost anything else. So I don't think that there's a, you
Carter
24:11
you know, Lougheed and Levesque were fighting
Carter
24:16
before little Justin was out of diapers.
Carter
24:19
So, you know, this is a time
Carter
24:20
time-honored tradition that I I don't think has a negative backlash, Zane. I think that this is part
Carter
24:28
the joy of the Canadian compact.
Zain
24:32
diminishing returns, not so much.
Corey
24:35
Yeah, diminishing returns because it's marketing, right? Also probably in earned media, also probably just generally if we want to look at outcomes and in terms of Albertans thinking you're doing something.
Corey
24:46
In marketing, in marketing communications, in advertising, I guess I'm really talking about when something loses novelty it loses effectiveness right you want ads to be so the whole theory of communication like everything that the communications industry does is trying to implant an idea in somebody's head right trying to and and we
Corey
25:07
we do that through a couple of different tactics and i won't dwell on all of them at this particular moment but when we talk about the quality of an ad we
Corey
25:14
we talk about whether it's captivating right does is it effective at cutting through the noise is it it can you you recall it is it memorable and uh is it resonant in the sense that it speaks directly to concerns and interests of yours so that last one is really about salience of the issue and tying it to but the first two have a lot to do with the quality of the creative and its stopping power right i've never seen that before i've never felt this way before about these things and of course there's famous examples like the volkswagen ad of a car that says lemon and you know you go oh my god they they have their own car and they said lemon and you look and they're saying, you can't even see what's wrong with it, but we rejected this one because something was wrong with the dashboard or something to that effect, right?
Corey
25:54
Because that's new and it's novel. If you kept running the lemon campaign for the next 40 years, nobody
Corey
25:59
nobody would give a shit anymore. Like it would just, it would lose that stopping power. It would lose that ability to captivate. And so in marketing, any technique done to exhaustion is exhausting and it doesn't have the same effect anymore. So absolutely there's a diminishing return to it.
Corey
26:15
I'm not sure we've hit that point yet, but it's certainly- We haven't hit it for 30 years.
Carter
26:20
years. We're not going to hit it this week.
Corey
26:23
I mean, I'll tell you this though.
Corey
26:26
At a certain point, people will say, yeah, I've heard you. You ran another ad campaign. Great. Okay. What they have going for them this time is it will almost certainly quote unquote succeed because as we said,
Corey
26:37
it's going to go away when there's a Pierre Polyev government. Let's
Zain
26:40
Let's quickly talk about what you see in this campaign If the goal, which you guys both have said, is not to persuade Canadians, what would you do, Carter, to make this campaign, ScrapTheCap.ca, more persuadable for the Canadian audience, the targeted audience that they have suggested in BC, Ontario, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick?
Carter
27:01
Well, the problem with ScrapTheCap is it has no context in all of those areas.
Carter
27:06
By the way, do you like
Zain
27:07
like the fact that it sounds like axe to tax? Let's talk about the very basic construction of it. Like we're in this three-word sloganeering era sponsored by Pierre Polyev. They're leaning into it. Seems smart to me. Do you feel like it's smart?
Carter
27:21
I mean, you know, everybody creates these little taglines that mean
Carter
27:26
something. You know, like back in my day, it was the bitumen bubble.
Carter
27:30
You know, a clever alliteration. Ooh, you really knocked the ball out of the park in
Carter
27:35
in that. I can't remember who we were copying, but I'm sure we were copying someone. someone.
Carter
27:41
I like axe attacks? Do I like scrap
Carter
27:45
I don't like either of them particularly
Carter
27:48
particularly because I don't think that they really communicate
Carter
27:50
communicate a fullness, but they
Carter
27:54
seem to be working on the target audiences. So who am I to argue with that which seems to work?
Carter
28:03
of the effectiveness is whether or not it starts to change people's minds.
Carter
28:07
My point, and I think think this is where i differ from cory is
Carter
28:11
i reject completely the idea that the target audience is is in some fashion um
Carter
28:17
the canadian public i
Carter
28:19
i think the target audience is entirely the
Carter
28:22
the alberta public i don't think it was a press conference
Zain
28:26
said in public i
Carter
28:27
don't think he said that no but i
Carter
28:28
i think that i think that cory was implying that there was some sort of communications
Carter
28:34
to communicating across to the larger audience i
Carter
28:37
i don't think there is i think think that the $7 million is the flushing noise and the only thing that's going to matter. I mean, how much of this money, how much of $7 million is going to be targeted towards Albertans? I'd love to know that.
Carter
28:49
I'd love to know that. Corey, is the
Zain
28:53
I'm going to insert my opinion, which is a rarity on the show, as you know, is the smartest part of
Corey
28:58
this – I've never
Corey
28:59
never heard of it. I've never heard of it. Yeah, wow. Is the smartest
Corey
29:00
part of this campaign
Zain
29:01
campaign just a name and nothing else matters? Because if you can add it to the heap of three-word rhyming slogans that maybe one day Pierre Poliev adopts or people just have a certain sort of, yeah, scrap the cap, build homes, whatever, ax the tax, is part of it. Do you feel like that's the smartest part here or do you think that's actually a strategic weakness? It's a different way of asking the question about what do you think of its name?
Corey
29:23
it's really a question of are you in early or late on this fad right because there is a diminishing return to this as well i think it's probably right at the peak where you could convince me either way um i don't think that these three quick word slogans are going to have much resonance two years from now they probably do a little bit right now and and to your point zane you might find a situation where i could easily see pierre polly i'm talking about adding he may have said that already. You may have. Yeah. You may be part of this. 100%. Now
Corey
29:53
Now to go back to what Carter was saying in terms of whether
Corey
29:56
whether I think that there's value in advertising or if that's a goal. No, I'm saying that that novelty matters in the province of Alberta as well. So the novelty of running a campaign is
Corey
30:05
is going to disappear outside of the province. And the more you take this approach, the less it's going to be effective.
Zain
30:12
Yeah. Okay. I want to spend the rest of the time on bc guys it's
Zain
30:17
it's friday evening they
Zain
30:18
they elect friday they elect a new government tomorrow well potentially the government regardless there's an election tomorrow carter bc
Zain
30:26
bc goes to the polls a lot is happening yeah all of us are familiar with bc but this is not the same bc we grew up familiar with 10 years ago this is the same bc with i guess a different political party at the the helm with now a NDP government trying to fight and survive for its right to stay government when it looked like a slam dunk. Carter, there's a few things going on in British Columbia, and I want to talk about two of them. And I'm going to wait for your predictions till the end and what happens. There's two strategic things I want to talk about. First strategic thing,
Zain
31:00
Carter, the conservatives are close. They could win this thing. But
Zain
31:05
But Pierre Poliev has been silent. Is
Zain
31:08
Is that a strategic mistake by the conservatives federally? And is that a strategic fail by the conservatives provincially that they couldn't get them to endorse explicitly? The implicit endorsement is there in the name and the colors, as it always has been with conservative parties across the country. But the explicit Polyev endorsement is missing.
Zain
31:28
Give me your strategic take on that. I
Carter
31:30
I think that that's the right move. I think that for both sides,
Carter
31:34
I think that Rustad wants to have a nice clean election without
Carter
31:38
without having Pierre Polyev and
Carter
31:42
his politics of pettiness coming
Carter
31:44
coming in and stepping on him. uh
Carter
31:47
uh john rustad had his has his own politics of pettiness that he can reach into and
Carter
31:51
and uh and really you know choke
Carter
31:54
choke the shit out of it um
Carter
31:55
um he has his own brand that they need to build and
Carter
31:59
and they don't need to have uh
Carter
32:00
uh pierre polliev coming in and describing uh
Carter
32:04
uh and defining the brand for them
Carter
32:07
the brand needs to be defined by rustad and and and
Carter
32:10
and frankly the brand is in is also being defined by
Carter
32:15
what Rustad is not.
Carter
32:18
And Rustad's not the NDP.
Carter
32:23
don't want to necessarily have brand confusion by
Carter
32:27
by bringing in Pierre Polyev, who is a
Carter
32:30
a different brand with a different taste in the mouth of British Columbians. I
Carter
32:35
I think that Rustad's probably got as
Carter
32:37
as high support as as Pierre Polyev would
Carter
32:40
would ever get, and he's done it on his own terms.
Corey
32:44
is this a strategic mistake?
Corey
32:48
No, I think that any intervention, especially in such a close election, is incredibly risky, because if they lose, they're going to blame Pierre Polyev, potentially, or they're going to have that to point to. And I just think if they win, they're not going to give up credit for it anyhow. So when you do the cost-benefit analysis, I see very little benefit and an awful lot of costs for intervention in your not home province like that, right? Especially if it was a total slam dunk, he
Corey
33:14
he would have already been on the wagon. If it was a total no chance, he would have been on the wagon, but he knows his
Corey
33:20
ability to be blamed is
Corey
33:22
is more significant than his ability to gain credit. And so he's just going to stay out of it. And that makes sense to me. I wouldn't get involved if I were him.
Zain
33:31
Corey, let me start with the NDP for you. We talked when this campaign just got started around things like COVID, what we call in Alberta bozo eruptions, where candidates have questionable activity, if not comments that they've made in the past. This has become a pretty popular political refrain here in Alberta, where you bring back the war room material, you put it out, you try to make a story about it. It's been successful in elections past, Carter. You've been the beneficiary of such a campaign, one would argue, in 2012.
Zain
34:01
I'm not saying this is all that that the NDP did, because that would not be fair to them. But it was a good part of what we publicly saw was part of their strategy. We
Zain
34:12
We stand here where the polls seem tied, maybe an NDP plus three, four, five, and in certain cases, depending on the poll that you're reading.
Zain
34:21
Has their strategy been a success? Despite the outcome, has their strategy been a success in your mind? I wanted to really get a sense of your take on what the BC NDP have done thus far. The
Carter
34:33
BCNDP are like most parties that have been in power for quite some time. They're defined
Carter
34:39
defined more by their past actions than by their future promises.
Carter
34:43
And I really think that this
Carter
34:46
this is a real challenge for them. You
Carter
34:48
You know, is how are you going to, you
Carter
34:52
dig in and define
Carter
34:54
define a future without
Carter
34:56
without necessarily just going in and attacking the other guys? I
Carter
35:00
I think that attacking the other guys is probably your best bet.
Carter
35:03
And, you know, will it work tomorrow?
Carter
35:06
I mean, I'm going to be on the edge of my seat watching this thing come
Carter
35:10
come in. I'm, you
Carter
35:12
who's going to be the government? Will it be a minority or majority? majority?
Carter
35:17
we see the Green Party pick
Carter
35:19
pick up a couple of seats and actually define the outcome?
Carter
35:23
This is great. I mean, and the
Carter
35:27
think, did the best job that they could, given
Carter
35:29
given that they're always going to be defined
Carter
35:33
their past more than their future when they've been in government for so long.
Zain
35:36
Corey, what do you think? We had a debate on this particular particular program, the Strategist Podcast is what it's called, about COVID and whether that would be a big deal or not. Rustad's comments on COVID and the NDP airing those out at the beginning of the campaign.
Zain
35:52
Hindsight in perspective, what do you think of their campaign strategy? Of course, not knowing what happens tomorrow in British
Corey
35:58
Yeah. I mean, it's really interesting. Stephen is right that governments – there's
Corey
36:04
there's a lot of challenges that governments have when they run for reelection that are just because
Corey
36:10
because you were in government. And there's obviously you accrue enemies over time. There's also the fact that government ease slips in and you start to think about things in almost overly nuanced ways and it creates a certain amount of paralysis for creating anything bold or interesting or exciting because you know all of the downsides and you know the stakeholder groups are going to complain. You just know too much, right? And it can lead to a feeling that it's a little out of gas, Like it's just giving you incremental change and there's not a lot going on. And sometimes incremental change is enough. Sometimes incremental change is absolutely not what the voter is looking for. And it's just, it's the reality of any long-lived government. You're going to have to deal with these particular challenges here.
Corey
36:50
But I will say that I think this BC campaign put into relief something for me that's been bothering me for a while. And I'm curious what you two, how you will react to this, right? right?
Corey
37:01
it has been a growing concern of mine for a while that campaigns have, we've talked about negative partisanship and it's just everywhere and it's so pervasive.
Corey
37:10
I think that I've decided one of the fundamental problems that political parties have in 2024
Corey
37:16
is that war rooms are too powerful and policy teams are too weak. And they are really good at why not. They're strong at why not, but they have become incredibly weak at why. Like these muscles have atrophied in the average political party to the point of of real damage real failure and one of the things about just being so good at
Corey
37:38
at banging your opponent's head like it's a drum actually
Corey
37:41
actually ties really well back to our last segment here the novelty disappears right the shocking thing is no longer shocking everything is shocking everything is damning there is always such incredible oppo nobody gives a shit anymore and if why not is starting to fail and i believe why not is starting to fail across the board here we
Corey
38:01
we better be able to find why again and the bc ndp are probably going to dodge a bullet here they're probably going to get re-elected but
Corey
38:08
but this is really angry really they're the enemy and let's look at all of the crazy things that they've done approach that political parties of all stripes have started to take on started to i'm starting I'm starting to see failure there. I don't know. I'm curious your thoughts, Stephen. But when everyone
Carter
38:24
everyone else is going there. I still think the negative is the most effective advertising that we have. I think the communications are better understood from a point of fear than they are from a point of opportunity. I don't think that that's something that people get tired of. I think that that's something that is ingrained in who we are as human beings. I think human beings have a bias towards negativity. Well,
Corey
38:47
I think there is a bias towards negativity.
Corey
38:49
am saying this not as some starry-eyed optimist. I'm saying this as a marketer. They have just gone to this well way too fucking much. By they, I don't mean the BCNDP. I mean
Corey
39:03
you ran a campaign's advertising. Did
Corey
39:05
Did you really feel that the negative attacks were landing the way they would have five, 10 years ago? I
Zain
39:09
I think it's interesting. I think both of those things can be true, both of what you guys said in your statements.
Zain
39:17
In that, I think there's two dynamics at play. Number one, I think Corey's right. Either the skills of the propositional have atrophied or internally within a campaign, the war room doesn't necessarily have too much power, but because negative- I think it does. That's my thesis. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm going to give you an or, right? Or in certain cases, it might. It might The best staff might have the best people, the research, the time, the tradition of doing it. And frankly, you have to understand that a war room in many cases is not just searching up all that dirt within the span of the 30 days of an election. They've housed it for many, many months, if not years, waiting for the right time to release it. And so in certain cases, they have all this ammunition and they really win the fight internally to say, we have to release it all. oh, what have we been doing the last three years building up this dossier, if not to actually put it out when it's at peak attention for folks. I think if it's not atrophied on the why, it's certainly the fact that why never wins the debate or the propositional never wins the debate as it comes to ad dollar spending. So the second thing that I think is true at the same time is that Carter's also right, that negative is the most effective or largely seems to be on advertising. We've actually forgotten not necessarily how to tell the why, but how to tell the why through propositional storytelling in 30, 15, and six-second versions because you can't rely on the daily hit anymore because that's no longer a thing. I'm almost taking your yes and ending an and, which is how do we tell compelling, interesting, positive, emotive, exciting stories when in the Canadian political culture, arena rallies are not a thing? We don't have these massive visuals. We don't have all these other ground game building activities or those skills have been lost because we've become so digital focused in so many ways. But how do you tell compelling positive stories that make people want to do something? I think there's a couple of things happening at once.
Corey
41:23
modern campaigns are very reactive. They're very negative. And
Corey
41:28
increasingly, they seem very ineffectual, right? They seem to be just floating on broader trends that are out there, whether those be trends on TikTok and Twitter, or whether those be just
Corey
41:38
general sentiments that are floating out and around and for me it's it's the propositional is is
Corey
41:45
almost beside the point i agree with everything you said there zane but to me it's not about propositional it's about novel show me something new or show me something i haven't seen in a while and i think that's where modern campaigns are falling down that's what i'm
Zain
41:58
i'm saying too right like like a compelling story
Corey
42:00
story yeah but what i'm saying what
Corey
42:02
what i'm saying is they are struggling struggling to be able to do that because too much of the power of the campaign has gone to the war room. War rooms were too successful. People started feeling too good about them and
Corey
42:14
they are no longer paying the dividends they used to. And then anytime all of your opponents are going one way, it behooves you to at least explore the other way and see if you might
Zain
42:23
might find some dividends. It's an interesting point. I'll make one final point here and let Carter jump in. Every war room I have been, not a part of, but have observed always has some version of their hits. And I think they've started to focus too much on outputs rather than what those outputs lead to the outcomes of an election or like potential opportunity or strategy. Often war rooms are designed simply in isolation. Quite literally, they're hived off in many cases, like physically hived off on a campaign. And I think there is potentially an issue there, even from a campaign culture perspective. To be discussed, that seems like like a special episode unless you disagree then cory and i will do it ourselves i
Carter
43:04
i i disagree i don't think that the i don't think the war room has has has outlived its usefulness i also don't think that the war room needs to just be entirely negative i
Carter
43:13
i know that with the war room i ran in 2012 we did all the positive stuff as well we
Carter
43:18
we were we were pushing out you know the war room was the was
Carter
43:22
was the engine and
Carter
43:23
and i think that the war room being the engine is is still the
Carter
43:27
the wise place to be and a a reliance on negative is still going to be a
Carter
43:33
Now, one could argue that
Carter
43:35
that negatives against Donald Trump aren't working, but
Carter
43:38
but one would also have to argue that Donald Trump is nothing but a negative force and he's still in this game.
Carter
43:44
So I think that the federal, at the federal side in the US, you're seeing that negative is still working. I think you're seeing a tired government that EB is running in British Columbia hold
Carter
43:57
in spite of the fact that they've been there for for too long, in
Carter
44:00
in no small part because the negative is working.
Carter
44:03
And I think that Pierre Polyev is a negative machine who's crushing Justin
Carter
44:06
Justin Trudeau, who's trying to be something
Carter
44:08
something new in politics. And his positivity
Carter
44:11
positivity lasted for about one and a half years, 2015
Carter
44:14
2015 to 2016 and a half.
Carter
44:19
I think you guys are wrong, embarrassingly so.
Corey
44:26
I didn't say war rooms have outlived the
Carter
44:28
the numbers. you did
Carter
44:30
you did classic torque no i think that's what you said i said they've got what was
Zain
44:37
was the time stamp of when do you say i wasn't
Carter
44:40
wasn't paying attention to the time
Zain
44:41
they've got too strong at the rest
Corey
44:47
you i appreciate that thank you for having my back thank you for your two of
Carter
44:51
of you together could almost argue me into the ground
Corey
44:55
they've gotten too strong at the expense of the rest of the political apparatus and i look you what you can define the political apparatus where is well rest
Carter
45:02
rest so you have defined
Zain
45:02
defined war literally just atrophying that's
Carter
45:07
where where is the rest of this i mean what parts of the policy team you're going to put the policy team in charge so i don't
Zain
45:15
don't agree on policy policy
Carter
45:16
policy team to be in charge cory you want the policy have you fucking met oh you are the policy team aren't you cory no
Carter
45:23
you're the guy who wrote the liberal party policy in 2020 or in 2012 and it was the best policy in the history of mankind and
Corey
45:31
and that's why they won yeah because policy is important policy
Carter
45:35
policy doesn't lift what
Carter
45:37
what does lift is having a strong campaign where you can accentuate
Carter
45:40
accentuate the negatives from your opponent while
Carter
45:43
while positioning your positives no
Corey
45:47
that's it you've created a definition of war room that's too broad for starters but let's just take your definition. The concept of a war room comes from the military where you're making quick decisions in the moment, reactive and
Corey
45:59
Sure. And I can accept that, but I do think that that reactiveness is part of the problem. It is exactly what I'm talking about. It's everything is reacting to the other guy. Everything is reacting to the moment. And, you know, Zane called it propositional. I would call it like kind of driving an agenda. And I don't need it to be like positive propositional. I need it to be, we are trying to do things outside of the flow of chaos this
Corey
46:22
is where i think the modern campaign has fallen down the modern campaign now is just it's like a speed addict it's just pinging from issue to issue and of course the rest of society is too but
Corey
46:34
but there's got to be there's got to be a counterbalance to it and i you know to pull us back to bc where we started this
Corey
46:41
this is my observation of the bc ndp campaign they had so much to react to they had so much that they wanted to throw out there based on what other people were doing And when it landed like a wet turd, it took them a good week and a half to figure out what the fuck they were doing again, before they've managed to kind of cobble together a half decent close to their campaign. And I say that with much love to many people I know in the BC NDP who are doing good work. But fundamentally, I think that we're always saying politicians and generals are fighting the last war. Well, I think politicians have become way too fixated on a model unquestioningly without thinking about whether it is still serving their purpose in 2024.
Carter
47:23
Yeah, I mean, you're just wrong.
Carter
47:29
Just so embarrassingly wrong.
Carter
47:32
Zane, do we have another topic or what? Are we just going to keep fighting?
Corey
47:35
Yeah, he's muted. He's trying to talk right now, but he doesn't realize that we can't hear him.
Corey
47:40
i muted myself because
Corey
47:42
i was just talking i was just talking to myself that's what i usually do yeah that's
Corey
47:45
that's good um i
Zain
47:45
i pretend my i just prepare for the next segment while talking to myself that's why it's so seamless all the time people ask me all the time why is it so seamless why does the show have this beautiful flow it's because i'm practicing in the background on mute while these two knuckleheads argue with each other
Corey
48:00
other uh and yeah okay carter over under
Zain
48:02
under part of the flow over under and lightning round let's let's do it for you. We always do. Stephen Carter, complete the following sentence. If the BCNDP lose tomorrow night, it is because of...
Carter
48:14
David Eby, not having the charisma required to carry a campaign.
Zain
48:18
Corey, fill in the blank.
Corey
48:22
They've been overwhelmed by a sentiment that things are out of control. They're not going to lose because of the war. I mean, that's a tactical thing at the end of the day. But the the reason why this election is even close is
Corey
48:36
is crime. It's affordability. It's challenges that they own after many years in government. Carter, starting with you again. If
Zain
48:44
If the BC conservatives lose tomorrow night, it is because of fill in the blank.
Carter
48:50
Because of his pandemic response at the beginning of the election, that I said it was a major issue and I would be right.
Corey
48:58
You are not at
Corey
49:00
all, but that's okay. It
Carter
49:02
It was just brought up. What's your thesis there, Stallion?
Zain
49:06
Fill in said blank.
Corey
49:08
Yeah, if they lose, it will be because of Rustad, but it won't be because of his pandemic. What he
Carter
49:12
about, yes, it will. That was defining.
Corey
49:14
It won't be about any of those things. It will be because he's fundamentally not the strong communicator that the BC conservatives need. And I think that there's something here that if I were the BC NDP, I would be very, very nervous about, right? Right?
Corey
49:29
And you probably would agree.
Corey
49:32
It's that there has been a fundamental realignment in BC. There is no longer a BC United and a BC Conservative, BC Liberal and BC Conservative.
Corey
49:40
I think that Rustad is not a particularly strong leader, and it's pretty close.
Corey
49:46
If a strong leader took over that particular apparatus, it's game over. It's lights out. If you're the NDP,
Corey
49:52
you've got to be thinking about one of two things. Either fucking
Corey
49:55
fucking enjoy it while you have it. It's going to be your last government in a while, right? So govern like you mean it.
Corey
50:02
start thinking about what realignment means to you and how you might be able to create your own realignment that would allow you to stay competitive against the best version of the BC Conservatives. Because you right now are in a dogfight with the worst version of the BC Conservatives. So
Zain
50:15
So you got to figure it out. Here's a question for you then. If Rusted loses tomorrow night, does he get replaced before the next election?
Zain
50:24
Corey, Carter, you agree on that one too? We're one and done on leadership these days. Corey, let's start with Carter, and then I'll go to Corey on this. Carter, who
Zain
50:33
who wins tomorrow night in British Columbia?
Carter
50:37
The BC Green Party, obviously. No, the BC NDP. The BC NDP will win. You're
Zain
50:42
You're feeling confident about that?
Carter
50:44
No, but I wanted to sound confident when I said it, so I said it like I was confident.
Zain
50:48
Okay, that's good. Thank you for that peek behind the curtain. Corey, you
Zain
50:53
you as confident in the BC NDP as being the right response?
Corey
50:57
It's really tempting when Stephen predicts something to predict the opposite. I
Corey
51:02
wouldn't be surprised by either outcome. I do think the BC NDP have the edge right now. I'm guessing they win by a couple of seats. Total chaos with a green balance of power with one is very possible.
Corey
51:13
And I think the BC conservatives could win it, although I don't think they're going to win it. I think the the bc ndp probably
Corey
51:19
probably but don't definitely have it oh
Carter
51:22
oh my god that was sweet
Carter
51:24
have listened to mine mine was so strong and you've
Corey
51:26
you've followed my lead so what bc conservatives saying i've changed my okay thank you so much hey
Zain
51:32
um yeah i need to i need to i need a pithy quick clippable answer for the following uh thursday morning is justin trudeau prime minister and And leader of the Liberal Party?
Zain
51:48
like it. That was picky. Yes,
Corey
51:49
Yes, he's prime minister. No, he's not leader. Or if he's leader, he's like interim leader while a new leader is being picked. I'm assuming this thing's happening on Wednesday, by the way. This is why I said
Zain
51:59
I'm wrong about Wednesday,
Zain
52:00
mean whatever the day after it is, Carter.
Zain
52:02
The day after the caucus meeting where the alleged revolt is going to be taking place, Stephen Carter, leader of the Liberal Party and prime minister, Justin Trudeau. No, I
Carter
52:10
I won't be leader of the Liberal Party and prime minister, but I think
Carter
52:15
think that Christopher Freeland will be.
Corey
52:18
Okay, fantastic. Okay, answer the question. I'd like to change my answer. I think that Justin Trudeau will definitely be prime
Carter
52:23
prime minister. Hey, you know what? It's just not even a funny bit anymore. It's not a funny bit. I'm
Zain
52:29
I'm going to leave it there. That's where I'm going to end. It's not a funny bit. It's not a funny bit. My name is Zane Belcher. With me as always, Corey Hogan. Not a funny bit. Stephen Carter. We'll
Zain
52:34
We'll see you next time.