Transcript
Zain
0:01
This is a strategist episode 1827. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Guys, it's
Corey
0:10
It sure is. Yeah. Big day. Also true. Big day. Yeah. Big day,
Carter
0:15
We're bike riding today, Zain, and we did not get hit with the rain. So it was just the best day.
Zain
0:22
You know, someone that wants to go bike riding with you is my son.
Zain
0:25
He calls you Uncle Stee.
Carter
0:27
Uncle Stee. Yeah, that's right. Uncle
Zain
0:29
Uncle Stee. I was hoping for
Carter
0:30
for Grandpa Steve, but it's okay. It's okay. We can change
Zain
0:33
change that. He's still very malleable in the mind up there. Yeah.
Carter
0:35
Yeah. So, we got to go back and bike ride more. And I got to keep teaching you.
Corey
0:40
You see yourself as like a father figure to Zane then. Is that what I'm getting from this? This is my son.
Corey
0:45
my son. I'm so much
Carter
0:46
much older than Zane.
Corey
0:48
I'm just saying, if you're Grandpa Steve, who
Corey
0:50
who are you dad of?
Carter
0:53
Just when I think of- Oh my God.
Zain
0:54
God. These are such white terms. I mean, I
Carter
0:56
I don't think you know
Zain
0:56
know the South Asian community all that well, Corey. listen
Carter
0:58
listen when i think of my peer i think grandpa is
Zain
1:01
is uncle's father i don't think you understand this at all yeah how is this let's go how is this confusing to you are from the northeast yeah thank you for starting to urinate while the show begins i didn't know you yeah
Zain
1:11
you carbonated urine there there you go it's good now you're drinking it and it's red cory we want to get that check yeah
Carter
1:22
okay what are we going to talk about zane you're gonna to do a show?
Zain
1:25
want to do a show. Why?
Zain
1:27
Why? Because, I don't know, it's the closest thing to I'm contractually bound to do a show.
Zain
1:34
I mean, I never want to do a show, let's be clear. But we are doing a show. Maybe that's a more accurate answer for you. Before I jump into the show, Corey, how are we doing on celebrating September 30th? Now, this is a holiday, a pseudo holiday holiday that
Zain
1:52
that we have established, this National Truth and Reconciliation Day across this country. How are we doing? This is landing in a way that I don't necessarily know how many people are practicing this, if it's still working, quote unquote, as it relates to this day that this government, this prime minister, has put on the calendar as a national holiday. How are we doing, Corey, both from its observance, but also its logistics and practice and incorporating it as a long weekend, because it is a strange non-long weekend for many. So
Corey
2:26
So I'm not sure the point was ever we get a day off. So let's start there. Like when you're like, doesn't quite feel like a long weekend. Not sure it was ever supposed to. Not sure that's what we're supposed to be doing on September 30th. It's saying, I'm just saying. No.
Zain
2:39
No. Oh, thank you for out-Indigenous-ing me when I put all the options on the table. It does fall into
Corey
2:45
a category of holidays like Remembrance Day, right? Where in some cases – well, we live in Alberta and in Alberta, it is a statutory holiday.
Corey
2:55
Many other provinces, it is not. Many
Corey
2:57
provinces, you just – you go to the 11 a.m. ceremonies, you leave work, you go back to work. That's more
Zain
3:04
more than – You're talking about November 11th to be clear. I am. Yeah,
Corey
3:07
Yeah, I am. And I'm saying that this is maybe one that's supposed to be more in the model of that, of reflection and contemplation and perhaps even education and taking the opportunity to learn about these things. But your point is really interesting because the quote unquote holiday nature of it is now something that people are seeing almost as a bit of a
Corey
3:30
off. Tag on to a Sunday. day right sure yeah and unclear to me where this particular one is going to land in terms of public consciousness and whether it's going to be the same province to province if if we're going to take different approaches to it over time but um certainly i think i think that it's um in alberta at least something that's like for sure a day off in the education system like my kids yeah school tomorrow i'm
Corey
3:55
i'm not sure how i feel about that kind of feel like maybe if the day's programming so so to speak, was more about truth
Corey
4:04
Maybe that'd be more appropriate.
Corey
4:06
But it is for sure not a day off at a lot of businesses. And
Corey
4:11
And so it's kind of an interesting day.
Corey
4:14
And it's an interesting headspace, especially if you happen to have kids in K-12, I think. Carter,
Zain
4:20
Carter, how are we doing on observing this day? I shouldn't say it's a political invention, but it is certainly a response to our politics created by a government, this one. How are we doing? And I guess the broader question I have for the two of you on the back end of your responses is, are we on the risk of losing this day? Like, is that a possibility? And I'm curious about that in a second, but Carter, give me your take first. I
Carter
4:43
think everything's a risk if Pierre-Paul Lievre wins. I think that, you know, land acknowledgements and Truth and Reconciliation Day feel like two of the big things that we put in the window of our, you know, from our Truth and Reconciliation Report, what was it, 59, 109? It was a big number of recommendations, and I feel like we've really missed on most of them. But we do have Truth and Reconciliation Day, and we have, you know, land acknowledgements. And those are good things, but they're not doing the work. They're not doing the heavy lifting that needs to be done for First Nations issues in Canada. We
Carter
5:21
We are continuing to struggle with people understanding what the
Carter
5:26
the First Nations even mean in Canada. I know that the school curriculum has changed dramatically, but
Carter
5:32
but I think it's going to take probably
Carter
5:34
probably another 15 years before we have enough of the population educated to really start to make a difference. And I just think it's too little too late and it shouldn't be a day off. That's not really the point. The point isn't to have time off and go camping. The point of the exercise is to inject truth and reconciliation into our everyday lives. And that's fucking hard to do. So having a day off is, I think, the opposite of how this should be treated. Corey,
Zain
6:07
Corey, there's 94 calls to action in the Truth and Reconciliation Commission. mission.
Zain
6:12
Answer this question for me. Could we lose this day? And partially because people don't necessarily know how to observe it and they don't know if it's categorized as holiday or observance day and it's on a Monday, so it feels like a long weekend, but we had one at the beginning of the month and there's one in two weeks. There's all these logistical items at play for sure, but there's also the heart of the matter of its observance. Are we at risk of potentially losing this day with the Polyev government. So
Corey
6:38
So Paul Wells had an interesting piece in the Walrus recently. And I want to pull you a quote from it. I was looking it up as you were talking here. And basically, the question was like, hey, why are you sometimes such a jerk to Pierre Polyev, right? And I think his kind of theory, his worldview really comes through here. Short answer is, yeah, probably, but maybe not definitely. Definitely. So he says here, I think that compassion is measured in results, not in words or gestures, Polyev said. So it's not about, you know, standing up, putting your hand on your heart and bursting into tears to plead with people to make them believe that you care more than the other guy. It's about what do you actually deliver?
Corey
7:19
And it goes on, interesting piece in general, but I do think that there is a worldview that Pierre Polyev has. And frankly, there's a sentiment that's maybe even growing across canada that some of our actions not just in this space but in others have been performative but not really been backed up by results and
Corey
7:37
um that is one of the criticisms people have had of of justin trudeau for a while it's part of why when he went surfing into fino on the very first of these days right that
Corey
7:47
that uh that it was such a such a backlash to it and
Corey
7:51
and if you are pierre poliev and if you're sitting there on um the first day maybe listen listen it's not a day one thing for him but if you're sitting there saying well what do we do with september 30th it's not a stretch for me to imagine him saying you know what this is not this is performative this is not what we need what we need is action on water what we need is to raise prosperity
Corey
8:15
absolutely prosperity a huge one right and uh and we're not gonna we're not gonna focus on this we're gonna find other things to focus on that absolutely absolutely is conceivable to me i i think it would be a mistake to fall into this caricature of him where he's going to go out there and say you
Corey
8:31
you know we don't we don't believe in in raising up first nations we don't believe in truth and recognition that's
Corey
8:36
that's not that's not what's going to happen but a very different approach um to uh truth and reconciliation and walking a better path with indigenous partners and peoples i
Corey
8:48
i think is a given under a pierre pauliev administration Carter,
Zain
8:53
Carter, let me ask the question that Corey's kind of put out. Does this day fall at risk of being in the virtue signaling category without something fundamentally or concretely changing? Well,
Carter
9:06
I think that that was the challenge with it is it does seem as virtue signaling without having something that actually happens on that day. Remembrance Day, we have the wonderful ceremonies that everybody goes to that really drive home the memories of what Canadian soldiers put, you know, dealt with through the wars, all the various wars that Canada has been involved in. We
Carter
9:29
don't really have anything similar. And that's partly why I kind of lament not having kids in school and us at work, because we could have a fantastic day in the education system. I think of the Terry Fox run day where everybody goes for a run in recognition of Terry Fox. That just happened a
Carter
9:52
couple of weeks ago.
Carter
9:54
There are things that we could do to drive home some of the lessons of First
Carter
10:02
First Nation issues in Canada, and we're just not doing that. Instead, we named a day and, you
Carter
10:10
you know, the reports, you
Carter
10:13
you know, it says that there's 20, you know, 20 odd recommendations in progress. There's so many different things
Carter
10:18
things that haven't been done yet.
Carter
10:20
And Truth and Reconciliation Day is, it
Carter
10:24
stands out there as something that we've done, but not something that we're doing.
Carter
10:27
Does that make sense? Like something we've done, but not something that we're doing. And it
Carter
10:32
it needs to be far more active in my mind. well
Corey
10:36
well look i think your mileage will vary depending on where you are in life what you do i mean i work at a university there's just tons of programming uh tomorrow it's inconceivable to me that people would even like float the idea as you did steven of like not having land acknowledgements right because that's the environment i live in that's the world i live in other people live in different worlds and will have different experiences and um i
Corey
11:01
i do think it has not gelled into a kind of a collectively held view of what the day should be that that just simply has not happened right and that does make it um you
Corey
11:13
know you could negatively say quote-unquote under threat but it also means maybe it's an opportunity for somebody to reassess it and and you know change focus on it or bring focus to the day in a way that perhaps the government hasn't helped us along on now like i said many people have taken it very seriously and very far but
Corey
11:32
but certainly there's not this collective view of what September 30th is. Carter,
Zain
11:36
Carter, tell me this. Last question on this. From a pure political perspective, for the liberals, is September 30th a hit or a miss?
Carter
11:44
I think it's still a hit. I think that setting aside the day and moving towards action is the right thing to do. Um, I think it risks becoming a miss, uh, especially if, if they don't have something
Carter
12:03
better defined by this time next year.
Zain
12:05
Corey, what do you think? Hit or miss for this government from pure political terms?
Corey
12:09
I honestly don't think it's either, but, um, that's, that's maybe unfortunate. Yeah,
Corey
12:15
I hear you. Let's
Zain
12:16
Let's move it on to our first segment. Our first segment, we're going to stick to the theme of this government, guys. guys, going rogue, I want to talk about prorogation. Yes, the thing that has recently happened in 2020 and then, of course, happened multiple times with Stephen Harper,
Zain
12:33
Corey, Carter, the liberals find themselves in a pickle, perhaps. They have a historically
Zain
12:39
historically low approval relating, a new low, a new floor, 33%. They've, of course, lost Jagmeet Singh in the official confidential confidence and supply agreement. The
Zain
12:51
The position's also weak in Carter because they lost the Bloc Quebecois in Montreal in that by-election that was supposed to be historically a liberal stronghold. And they now are facing an end of next month ultimatum by the Bloc on two significant bills that if the Liberals do not pass, the Bloc will certainly do their part in trying to take down this government.
Zain
13:14
Which Carter brings me to the question of, is it time to go rogue? Is it time to prorogue?
Zain
13:20
And I want to spend this episode talking about the Justin Trudeau prorogation strategy. Is it a real one? Should it be a real one? Should he consider it? What are the implications of considering it? How do the opposition parties respond? What are the benefits that everyone gets or doesn't get from a Justin Trudeau prorogation call? And of course, what the governor general should do on top of all this. So
Corey
13:42
So before we even get there, for people who maybe didn't pay much attention to previous prorogations what we're talking about is essentially sending parliament away right we're talking about ending
Zain
13:54
ending the current tracks right now that's
Corey
13:56
that's right and coming back with a new throne speech so it ends the current i think session is the right term i never get them right like that
Zain
14:02
that would be great sittings
Corey
14:03
sittings right yeah is
Corey
14:04
is it the sitting or the session i
Zain
14:05
i believe the session yeah
Corey
14:08
then uh then having a new throne speech and getting back at it like that would be prorogation and it's been used as a circuit breaker in politics recently when the government is feeling pressure in a minority situation where they prorogue and they get to get their ducks in a row and they come back a little bit later when everybody's a little bit cooled off and it's less likely the government falls so i just you know throwing that context out there i think
Zain
14:33
think the most famous one carter although this is not the most recent one would would be 2008. I
Zain
14:38
don't know if you'd agree with me. Yeah, that was a big
Corey
14:39
big one. That was
Zain
14:39
was a big one, yeah. So this, for those that don't remember, this occurred during the political crisis for Harper. The liberals NDP and Bloc were forming this loose coalition to overthrow his minority. So he requests prorogation to avoid this confidence vote. And then when he comes back, the coalition is significantly weaker than it had been. He kind of staves off this vote. boat he survives he builds you know uh the legacy of of uh and continues a legacy i guess in this case of the harper decade in that regard um he used it a couple other times since 2008 but cory's right carter this you know this would be a circuit breaker come back uh you know get rid of the current dynamic shake up the board a bit buy yourself some time buy yourself some energy Would that be for resetting
Zain
15:28
resetting the board or potentially calling and proroguing and, you know, leaving,
Zain
15:34
leaving, which many people, you know, have speculated could be a natural next step of a prorogation.
Zain
15:41
Carter, anything to add to the civics lecture before we go into the strategy part of this? I
Carter
15:47
think the civics lecture just needs one more piece to it. And that is that basically,
Carter
15:54
this has been used by both governing parties in history. I mean, this isn't something that you
Carter
16:00
you look back at and say, well, this is a liberal piece, right? Right. So starting in 2002, Jean Chrétien did it. 2008, Stephen Harper did it. 2009, he
Carter
16:12
he did it again. 2020, Justin Trudeau did it. you know so this isn't a oh my god this has never been done before type of situation this is a tool that is used the tool is uh does not lead to an immediately you know an immediate fall of government it is just a tool that can be used to reset and move forward well
Corey
16:36
well i do want to take a little exception to this is just normal course you
Zain
16:41
you want to challenge that underlying sort of I do. I mean,
Corey
16:43
I would even say in the context of versus 2008, it might not be comparable here for a couple of reasons we can get into. But you talk about Chrétien doing it, that was a majority government. There was never the threat that the government was going to fall in
Corey
16:58
in a prorogation there. You talk about 2020, the last time it happened. The COVID one. That happened in the dead of summer. That was undoubtedly, you know, to serve the same purpose of Circuit Breaker. But if I'm not mistaken, it was more about committees and wanting to reset the committee meetings and not have those. There
Zain
17:14
There was a partial we scandal situation there. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Corey
17:17
yeah. That's exactly right. Yeah. The 2008 one was very contentious because that was where there was a deal that was struck by the liberals, the NDP, and the bloc to bring down the conservative government. So this was the stated purpose of it. And then parliament was prorogued, and so the vote could never happen. And then it all kind of fell apart for Stéphane Dion. on and then um then ultimately harper did manage to seize the narrative talked about the coalition of the losers got
Corey
17:49
got his feet back under him in the context of this minority government right so that's the one that i think is maybe the most comparable if you take it as a well i just don't want to lose a parliamentary vote but one of the things that made that one i think um with the benefit of hindsight maybe even less objectionable than if they were to prorogue right now is one One, it
Corey
18:09
it actually did prove that Parliament, if it was given just a couple of months, could come back and work, right? It didn't ultimately lead to the fall. It didn't delay the inevitable. It changed the outcome, right? All of a sudden, people could sit and say, is this actually what we want? Does this make sense? Do we want the bloc propping up the government, for example? And it changed the outcome, right? Two, it was so close to after an election. This was like a couple of months after the 2008 election. So, I think they don't release like, this is why we decided to prorogue or not document if you're the governor general. But certainly, Michel Jeanne, in conversations and interviews after said, well, you know, it was a young parliament, we wanted to give it a chance. We wanted to see if they could make it work. This wasn't forever. This was a get your ducks in a row, come back with a different budget. So, it's a chance for the government to negotiate, right? right? This is the dying days of this liberal government. This is the dying days. So many of those conditions that Michelle Jeanne has hinted to and talked about in interviews do not exist here. It is not a new government that we're trying to get a chance to. This is not a situation where they get their ducks in a row and come up with a budget necessarily, right? I mean, that could happen, but it could also happen. They just prorogue for four months and then go straight to the fucking polls and the governor general knows it. Okay.
Zain
19:22
Okay. So Corey's answering the should Should he, Carter? Let's get started with the could he. Oh,
Zain
19:28
Maybe. I'm not even sure
Zain
19:30
Okay. Well, let's start here. Let's start with the could he. Could he prorogue? Yes. For pure political survivorship, let's just make that the stated goal, right? And we could add some color to that, by the way, if we wanted to. We could say it's to survive, or we could say it's to survive as a party, leave, have a leadership, something like that in between, right? right? But let's just start with a very simple, could he? You say yes. Yeah.
Carter
19:57
Well, Mary Simon is not going to take the advice of the prime minister and then do something other than that.
Carter
20:04
The governor general's role in these situations is not to sit back and evaluate. The governor general's role is to say, yes, this is what we're going to do because I have received the advice of the prime minister and the prime minister wishes for me to do it. It is lawful and therefore i shall follow
Carter
20:20
follow the law you
Carter
20:21
you know the governor general is not a ruler of the country uh the governor general and you should know this saying as the vice son to the vice regal you should know this the the lgs and the ggs they they take their their marching orders as it were uh provided that they're legal from the uh from the from the top ministers okay
Zain
20:44
okay wow uh but carter here's the thing here's the thing mary simon's got no choice is what you're saying mary
Carter
20:50
mary simon has no choice if justin trudeau comes to that answers that
Zain
20:54
that answers the could he question
Carter
20:57
cory well hold on cory's going to disagree with me because cory does mary simon have a choice
Corey
21:03
look i i think i agree the most likely outcome is that she accepts 99
Carter
21:06
99 out of 100
Corey
21:07
100 i don't know it's that high it's
Carter
21:09
it's been one gg in the british commonwealth who has not taken the british Let us, no, Corey's smart.
Zain
21:16
smart. He can speak for himself. I mean, he might make a fucking stupid point, which is like a 50-50 ball. I could. I reserve the right to do that.
Corey
21:23
that. Just as the governor general in 2008 reserved the right in the future not to prorogue governments if they thought it made responsible government less likely. And that's kind of my point. Like, there was still some gray that could be played in here. And if there is one fundamental job of the governor general, it's to maintain responsible government. And, you know, it's a concept that we learn about in social studies when we're you know in our teens and we kind of forget about what the whole fucking notion of our type of government is that the executive branch of the government has the support of the legislative branch of the government and so when we talk back in 2008 and the whole circuit circuit breaker thing the idea was brand new parliament we're going to give it a shot go get your ducks in a row come back and see if you can to it that's the argument for why prorogation was allowed then but
Corey
22:13
is not legitimate to say we're going to prorogue because we don't think we have the house anymore and we want to do a leadership but may
Carter
22:19
may i excuse me mr teacher may i jump in here mr teacher
Zain
22:23
teacher absolutely yeah yeah go ahead do
Carter
22:24
do we not just survive a confidence vote in the house of commons that we have the confidence of the house of commons i can i'm bringing you the proroguing uh i wish to prorogue because Because I
Carter
22:37
I wish to reset this government. I have their support. I
Carter
22:40
I have their confidence. Pierre
Carter
22:42
Pierre Polyev can bring a confidence motion every day, at
Carter
22:45
at least until the 31st of October. And
Carter
22:48
And I'm going to have the confidence of this government, of this legislative branch. friends
Corey
22:53
it's it's for sure the strongest point the government would have for doing it but we also have a block that has said they're going to withdraw that if something doesn't happen by a trigger date right which is the end of the month like
Corey
23:05
like i said i agree most likely she just says sure let's prorogue depending on what they ask prorogation to be until like if they said hey i don't we don't want to come back until next june right that just to give an extreme absurd example that's
Corey
23:18
they'd be out of their mind to approve that
Zain
23:20
so it's okay here's okay you've you've got your answer that could. I've got so many questions, right? We're working through a whole thing here.
Zain
23:26
Corey, you've given me a preview on the should. Should he do it? Let me let get Carter in on the should. And then I actually want you to guys, regardless of what your responses are here, which I do want to hear, I
Zain
23:36
I need both of your help to write me the best rationale for prorogation, regardless of what you think in this next answer. So Corey, I've got a preview of your thoughts. I'll come back to you. I'll round out your thoughts on this. But Carter, should he?
Carter
23:50
You know what? I didn't think he should. I was completely against it. I thought this is the dumbest idea ever. And then I started talking to Corey and my
Carter
24:00
mind has been made up that he should do this. And for two reasons. Number one, I think he needs to do a cabinet shuffle. And to do a cabinet shuffle in the middle of the session is a bit of a pain in the ass, especially for the new ministers. And second, I think he needs to resign. I think he needs to resign. And proroguing parliament gives him that opportunity to resign and enable a very quick leadership race. Or
Carter
24:27
Or you know what? Or appoint an interim leader. It doesn't even need to be a quick leadership race. But if he prorogues parliament, then I think one of those for sure is going to come true. Cabinet shuffle and possibly the second as well. Okay.
Zain
24:41
Okay. So you're actually on the yes side of he should. Yes, I am on the yes side. Round out your thoughts on the word you used, objectionable.
Corey
24:50
Yeah. I think it would look pretty weak. I do agree with Stephen that there is a bundle you can put together there of, we're just going to reset. I actually don't think it relies on him resigning even. You're going to get a whole new cabinet. You're going to get a whole new legislative agenda. It's a whole new liberal party, right? Just you fucking wait and see. Like, I do think that there is something to the almost cinematic nature of doing that. And just because let's be clear, the fact that he could pro Rogan, there could be a new, a new throne speech next week, right? But there is something about the actual event that says, something's different here, something snapped, something's changed. And, and so that is all possible. But it
Corey
25:34
it sure fucking looks like you're just floundering around at that point. you have you
Corey
25:38
have the the ndp saying no more support no more confidence in supply agreement right you have the bloc saying not only that but we're going to vote against you try to bring you down in a month if you don't do a few things for us here in
Corey
25:51
in that environment you're going to go out and say well i guess we're just not going to meet as a parliament for a while right that looks i mean my god you can see the sweat from orbit and a government that already looks like it's lost control of the agenda has just evidenced it to every single Canadian out there. And it's not going to fucking work. I guess that's the final point I'll make on it. It's not going to work just as the cabinet shuffle didn't work, just as the budget didn't work. There's like one thing that's going to work and we all know what it is, right? People in Canada have gotten past the point where they can hear Justin Trudeau when he talks, or certainly, you know, can't hear it in anything except for a tone that makes them want to punch a wall. And as long as that's the case, I mean, I think they're at their best case scenario right now. They're going to get 20, 25% of the vote.
Corey
26:37
Hopefully for them, they can get ahead of the NDP and the block. That's it. That's their dreams at this particular moment. And any other big swing, it's not going to work.
Corey
26:46
And at this point, I just think it's more likely to do damage.
Zain
26:49
Carter, helping write the best prorogation strategy for the trudeau liberals and underlining trudeau well
Carter
26:55
think that the best strategy is that he's going to resign and he needs the uh he needs the space to do it right you're
Zain
27:02
you're saying prorogation for resignation right that's the yeah that's the but that's
Carter
27:06
that's a big swing and you shouldn't let me get away with that okay why
Zain
27:11
tell me why because it's come back to you what if it's prorogation for not resignation but walk me through why prorogation for resignation is is not a bad strategy because
Carter
27:20
because it gives you what
Zain
27:21
what does it give you it
Carter
27:21
it get it gives them space like it literally does what it's supposed to do and it enables them to be clear to run a leadership to to to to get through the the resignation right without having to battle it out in the in the in the uh in the house you can just you
Carter
27:37
you know everybody just he it you prorogue the the parliament and off you go it's not something that you the pressure is off you can do cabinet shuffles you can get Get an interim leader. You can get them up to speed. You can get them into place. And then they can go back in January facing the heathens across the aisle with a degree of confidence that they know at least, you know, where
Carter
27:59
where the bathroom is, right? How to actually manage a government. All the staff will change. There'll be significant, you know, upheaval all the way through. So this to me is a natural reset if he's leaving. But like
Carter
28:16
like I say, that's that's that's the chicken's way out. That's it's too easy.
Carter
28:21
The other argument for prorogation is actually has been made by my good friend Corey Hogan.
Carter
28:26
They're literally going to reset. They are going to redefine the Liberal Party of Canada. The
Carter
28:31
first bill they're going to come back with in January is going to be an electoral reform where they get a single transferable vote and
Carter
28:39
and or something like that. I don't know. I mean, just something to kind of cause a massive shakes
Carter
28:45
shakes up the conversation,
Carter
28:46
conversation, shaking something massively up. And they're coming in and they're not bringing back any of the little things that they're working on. But instead, they're bringing in five big bills that shake
Carter
28:57
shake up who Canadians think Canada is.
Carter
29:02
You know, please, God, not proportional representation. But, you know, a single transferable vote would be fine or some sort of another reform. But you need four months to figure it out, three months to figure it out. um that's why you would prorogue because you need to come back with a significantly different agenda you need to completely rewrite the budget you need to figure it out from the ground up and
Carter
29:27
and you can't do that with being in the house of commons and in committees all day cory
Zain
29:31
cory carter's given me two the
Zain
29:33
the prorogation for resignation buy yourself a bit of time do it cleaner than you would right now if the decision has been made and prorogation for an actual reset and borrowing of your point and expanding on it with a few examples.
Zain
29:46
You're going to help me too, Corey. Help me write the best liberal, Trudeau liberal prorogation strategy.
Corey
29:52
Yeah. As much as I really want to argue the other point, sure. If you
Corey
29:58
you are Trudeau and you're looking to sell a prorogation, you actually talk about the chaos that exists out there as the proof point. Say, Jesus, I mean, the NDP, they're out of CASA. They're still voting to support us. They got to figure their shit out. the bloc they're supporting us now they've got a bunch of things that they're throwing on the agenda they're all over the map too i
Corey
30:19
i i mean the conservatives god love them at least they're consistent in their opposition but this parliament i think needs to get back to ground needs to figure itself out and frankly so does this government like everything has fundamentally changed the game is different than what we thought it was going to be three weeks ago before all of this happened right and we acknowledge that and i think the nature of that change and the significance of the change says it's time for a bit of a reset we want to reflect that we've heard Canadians in those two by-election losses. We want to reflect the different situation with the end of the confidence and supply agreement. And frankly, we want to reflect some of the different and new demands that have come out from all of these various parties within parliament as conditions for their support. God, we're not going to decide whether we want to do something as dramatic as change OAS in three weeks. That's government by madness. So we're going to take a beat. We're going to assess a bunch of these things. Maybe we can do with some of them, maybe not, but we'll come back with a throne speech and a new agenda for the final session of this parliament that'll take us through to the next election. And that's just good sense. That's just good sense, folks. Have you sold yourself saying that statement? I'm just very good
Carter
31:28
at my job. He's unmovable. He doesn't listen to rational argument,
Zain
31:30
argument, even if it's his own. Okay. Before we move on around what would constitute success here, here.
Zain
31:38
Prorogation for leadership, replacing yourself.
Zain
31:42
Different than resigning, in a sense, help me with that strategy, guys. What if the argument is internally like you're leaving so you can get replaced? You buy yourself, leaving to find the time to find a new leader. And of course, all of this is like scenario speculation. But I think this is a fascinating scenario speculation. Carter, walk me through that strategy. I
Carter
32:04
I mean, the strategy would be that that you're going to stay
Carter
32:07
stay on in some fashion, but call leadership. I think that that would be actually way harder than resignation. You can do
Zain
32:14
do that, right? You can stay on as- Oh, yeah. You can instruct the party leadership to call
Carter
32:19
call leadership at any time.
Zain
32:21
Right. Still stay as PM and, I guess, leader of the party. Oh,
Carter
32:24
Oh, yeah. It's happened for premiers. It's happened for prime ministers. It's happened for leaders of the opposition.
Carter
32:30
People stay in place. And I
Carter
32:34
think that the problem with that would be, you
Carter
32:37
you know, you're avoiding the beating in the House of Commons. Congratulations. But what else are you doing?
Carter
32:42
You're not really allowing the party to progress. You're not really allowing them to proceed to
Carter
32:46
to the next level. You're
Carter
32:48
You're just sitting there in
Carter
32:49
in the big comfy office while
Carter
32:51
while everybody else runs around you and tries to figure
Carter
32:55
figure out how to stop
Carter
32:57
the ship from sinking. I
Carter
32:59
think it would be prorogation
Carter
33:04
resignation or for major reset, but to stay on as leader and get
Carter
33:12
get yourself replaced. I
Carter
33:14
I think that would be a tremendous mistake.
Zain
33:16
That's a no-no from you strategically. Corey, what would be your thoughts on prorogation for leadership? leadership yeah
Corey
33:24
yeah again i think you talk about chaos as the reason why you need to take a beat but it's more about the avoidance of chaos at that point say listen i want to i don't want to be prime minister anymore i think i've heard the message canadians are ready for different options and i'm so proud of our agenda but uh but that time is done and it's time for a new leader now we've got some difficult things in the world right now we've got challenges in the middle east We've got an ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. We've got, I mean, fill in the blanks. There's so many things you could point to and say, this is a world that requires consistency and steady leadership. It certainly doesn't require an interim prime minister who's going to be trying to figure it out in the year where we are the heads of the G7, right? I'm going to be the person who's going to provide stability through those times, acknowledging that my time is now coming to an end. This will allow us to naturally ramp up and ramp down certain types of activity.
Corey
34:20
I think that's just what Canadians expect. I think that's what we owe the world as Canadians. That's how I would sell it. But
Corey
34:27
let's be clear, the counter argument of we're going to stop government so the liberals can figure out their shit is pretty compelling too, right? And it's like, fucking pick up your socks. Leadership's changed. We are going to have an election. Leadership's probably going to change. Maybe that's how we should be thinking about this, right? Like the conservative counter message comes pretty easily on that one too.
Zain
34:48
Talk me through, regardless of which of these lanes you're picking for prorogation, and I forced you in these positions to be clear, right? Not me. Yeah, no, except Carter, who's actually now in it. And I can't tell whether it's with any conviction behind him whatsoever. I'm so convicted.
Corey
35:04
Stephen Carter, model of everything. Yeah,
Zain
35:07
Yeah, no kidding, Carter. Hey, listen, would you leak this? How would you announce a prorogation in this climate? I'm actually curious. It's like a strategy question, right? Would you leak it? Would you tease it? Would you just do it one day and do shock and awe and like, holy fuck, this happened? happened. He could do this tomorrow if he wanted to. This could be a tomorrow thing. I'm not saying it is, but doing Justin Trudeau, he likes to do things on September 30th that are not aligned with the- Oh
Carter
35:34
Oh my God. That would be so spectacular.
Zain
35:36
This could literally be a tomorrow thing. How would you guys think about this? If your boss were Justin Trudeau and he's going down this path, would you want a bit of a preview to the public that this is going to happen? Or is this like a jolt to the system? Here we are, here we we go carter
Zain
35:50
carter first and then cory well
Carter
35:52
well i would go jolt to the system i don't understand why you would leak it and try and get some sort of i
Carter
35:58
i mean basically when you're leaking something you're using it as a trial balloon or you're trying to soften the the the the landing and yeah i mean this
Carter
36:06
is not a trial balloon type of thing the general population is not going to go thank fucking god we're proroguing you know parliament this is going to go this is going going to go over like a lead balloon, um,
Carter
36:17
um, unless there's a decent reason at the end of it. So I would just, you know, show up at Mary Simon's office on, you
Carter
36:25
next Sunday and just say, we're going to do this. And that's the ball game. Uh,
Carter
36:30
Uh, I think that next week might be a break week might
Carter
36:33
might be, they may be back. I can't even remember, but,
Carter
36:37
regardless, I would do it relatively soon. I
Carter
36:40
mean, maybe it happens on Tuesday, who knows, but I would not do
Carter
36:42
do it tomorrow. And I would,
Carter
36:46
But I would also not have floated it. I mean, it sounds like maybe
Carter
36:50
maybe there's a leak somewhere because our, you know, intrepid ears have heard these stories. Well,
Zain
36:57
Well, to be clear, the liberals are saying, at least of the last couple of weeks, that they're not going to do this. This is not on the table. But it is one of those things when you reach a minority parliament that you consider, especially when you look back in the window of 2008, when you see what's happened there with the confidence vote. Dynamics different. Corey, what
Zain
37:13
what do you think? Do you leak something like this? Or do
Corey
37:17
do it? You just do it. It's probably even a problem that we're talking about it if this was actually on the
Zain
37:25
the table. If this was actually on the table, yeah.
Corey
37:26
I'm not sure that it – like there's been variants of this rumor for about a month, which is part of why the liberals have had to deny it, right? Yes, like on the record saying no,
Zain
37:35
no, this is –
Corey
37:35
– Yeah, absolutely. But yeah, if you give anybody any time with this, they're just going to make your life miserable. Why would you let the opposition know that a prorogation is on the table, a prorogation is coming? Because that's when they can start making it difficult even for the GG in ways that I was alluding to earlier, where they start publicly saying
Corey
37:55
like, we don't support this government anymore. like if all three of the major opposition parties said we don't support this government anymore because they heard this prorogation was coming well
Corey
38:03
well that's fucking tough right that becomes a very difficult thing for a governor general to deal with now again most likely she prorogues anyways for all of the reasons that we've just talked about earlier but it's
Corey
38:15
it's tough and it's tough for the government and it certainly makes the government if nothing else look more like they're hiding from a parliament that no longer supports them which is not in their interest if If they're trying to rebuild their popularity with Canadians, even if it is the reality.
Zain
38:30
Is there any reason, Carter, that let's go with any of the opposition parties should want this? Any
Carter
38:35
Any of the opposition parties? Yeah, yeah,
Zain
38:37
yeah, yeah, yeah. You could circle one out. You could answer them in bulk, be like, no one should want this. They should all fight against it. You could choose one and be like, actually, you know what? The bloc could want this. This would actually be interesting for them considering the ultimatum. I'm just throwing shit out there, right? But I'm going to give you the package to all of the parties in parliament. outside of the liberals should anyone want this i
Carter
38:57
mean the green party may want a vacation um that you know that could be something uh the block absolutely not they're riding a wave they've got their planned strategy for the parliamentary session here it ends uh on october 31st i think it is when you know i've
Zain
39:16
i've got a date the end of end of october the
Carter
39:19
conservatives are doing exactly what the conservatives want to do. And Jagmeet Singh hasn't made a good decision in how long has he been leader? So why would he make a decision? Things happen to Jagmeet Singh. He doesn't have things happen because he wants them to or doesn't want them to. They just happen to him and he just kind of shrugs and goes along.
Carter
39:40
So I don't anticipate that any of these leaders or any of these parties want this to happen. But I think that of the parties that wouldn't care, it'd probably be the NDP and the Greens and the Bloc and the Conservatives would be quite pissed.
Zain
39:53
Corey, should any of the opposition parties want this to happen?
Corey
39:57
It's not the worst thing for the NDP because as we've been talking about for the last couple of weeks, the box that they're in right now is every time a confidence vote comes up and they vote with the Liberals, they look a little dumber. And if they can avoid a whole sitting worth of confidence votes, that's
Corey
40:15
that's not the worst. you can allow the rhetoric to continue to be 10 or 11 and you don't have to worry about then having to go in the house on a random Tuesday and eat a bunch of shit because you actually are going to continue to support these guys. So I don't know that the NDP would be that, that opposed to a prorogation.
Zain
40:31
Carter, who's the biggest winner if the liberals do this?
Carter
40:35
I think it's actually the liberals. You think so? In doubling down on my strategy. I think
Zain
40:43
there's a world in which your answer it might be correct so i'm act i'm i say i say that sincerely you you think so if it's
Carter
40:52
for resignation then i think that it's absolutely uh
Carter
40:55
uh the right thing to do
Zain
40:58
how about prorogation for resignation and then subsequent leadership yeah
Carter
41:01
yeah that's fantastic let's do it let's make some calls fuck
Carter
41:03
fuck it i'm calling
Carter
41:04
now i'm making some i'm calling jt this is motivating
Carter
41:08
this is the best idea i've had i mean when i say i i mean you know you mostly because you were like let's do the episode on this um but this is uh this is pretty exciting this is my new best idea okay
Zain
41:20
okay before cory gets in and rips you a new one um maybe you know build more asshole so uh no
Carter
41:31
this is i mean first of all i've
Zain
41:34
i've got enough asshole
Corey
41:35
asshole that was quite something yeah
Zain
41:36
yeah thank you and
Zain
41:37
and secondly tell us why tell us why why are you so like spell it it out why are the liberals the biggest winner here i
Carter
41:44
i actually think that they need a reset for either of the two reasons that i talked about to come up with a significantly new plan or to replace their leader okay
Zain
41:54
okay i'm good with resign and replace yeah i'm
Zain
41:57
not just replaced just to be clear you're not a fan of having him sit there no
Carter
42:01
no fuck he's gotta go interim leader and the interim leader gets to lead in budget
Zain
42:06
budget interim pm yeah
Carter
42:07
yeah that's that's how that works One, the leader will be the prime minister and it'll be just so
Zain
42:11
so everyone is clear. Okay. So you're,
Zain
42:13
you're, you're, you're pumped on this. I'm
Carter
42:15
I'm ecstatic about this because we actually get something that we need, which is a reset, which is how, you know, the liberals have been waiting for a reset after the summer. They
Carter
42:24
They were waiting for a reset after the last cabinet shuffle. They've
Carter
42:26
They've been waiting for a reset since, since the last budget.
Carter
42:30
Instead, we got dental care for a couple of people, you know, like, it's just not, it's not the reset that we've been looking for. worse so if you need the time take the time if you need three and a half full months to figure out where you're going to be headed you
Carter
42:42
you know calling cory and i to come in and take over the national campaign uh
Carter
42:47
uh cory says no because he's got this job uh but i jump in because i can do it uh plus all the other stuff i'm up to i mean it'd be fantastic i
Carter
42:57
i mean fan fucking tastic
Zain
42:59
okay so carter is excited because this could mean a gig for carter
Carter
43:01
carter oh yeah i'll i'll uh i'll
Carter
43:03
charge half All about business
Zain
43:05
development for Stephen. Carter, has this podcast led to any business development for you? No.
Carter
43:11
No. No, I lost a lot of contracts as a result of this podcast.
Zain
43:15
I feel like that's more than likely the case. Corey, you want to go ahead and do that thing I said you were going to do with him?
Corey
43:24
I think it's the conservatives that win when there's a prorogation because this is fucking nonsense. This is a nonsense idea. It is entirely based on the flawed notion that you are in charge of the universe and you can just make things so. The world's going to keep fucking turning here. The world does not stop. And the minute there's a situation where, geez, be nice if parliament was around. I mean, shocking, I know, but parliament does stuff. If we need to change a law, if there's a need for any of that activity, that's not going to be able to occur while prorogation is going on. And you can just take that if you're Pierre Polyev, and in addition to everything I said about them looking
Corey
44:01
looking like they're scared and running from accountability and not being a responsible government, now you can say, you're
Corey
44:08
you're making life worse for Canadians. Canadians need you to act, and we cannot act because you will not allow this parliament
Carter
44:14
parliament to be. Hit me with we're not a responsible government. Oh, come after me. Yeah, well, I didn't. Everybody's going to lean back and say, what did I learn in
Zain
44:21
in grade eight? Can
Zain
44:22
Can I give you a very simple one, just to weigh this? Sure. In both your responses? Let's say if the liberals, let's say if Trudeau resigns and they launch a leadership, all eyes on the liberals. Is that a bad thing? No, not at all. Especially
Corey
44:36
Especially if it's a leadership. It's an interesting question. Probably not. Probably not a bad thing for them. You know what? Part of it is I just have no sense
Zain
44:43
sense that that would happen. It could
Zain
44:44
a bad thing because it could be a bunch of people being like, oh my God, this party is so incompetent. They may choose the wrong person. Their process might be flawed. It might look haphazard. They might choose the right... It could be a bad thing. I ask that question sincerely, but all eyes on them. They're flailing, but is it a bad thing, Carter? You're saying no, like unequivocally. Yeah,
Carter
45:07
reason you would do this is to buy yourself enough time to actually get that reset that we've been talking about. It's not like we haven't been talking about how the liberals need a significant reset. Do
Zain
45:16
Do you want the public to watch how a party that has kind of seemed disconnected with the public for the last two years is picking their new leader how it's making its sausage yeah in some ways you actually want that to happen that's better than what they're doing now
Carter
45:31
justin judo's off fucking the dog and you know probably going surfing into fino again tomorrow for all we know just
Zain
45:37
to be clear he meant that as a euphemism so uh what did i say that was problematic don't
Zain
45:43
don't worry about it carter we got you covered we we have a pdf on this uh with our whole legal sort of um okay
Zain
45:50
situation it's fine don't even worry about it i got you covered thank
Carter
45:53
thank you very much up
Zain
45:53
up front and center like what do you think like could it be an issue or is it is it actually positive for them i
Corey
46:00
i think it could be of benefit if they could keep the spotlight on them the way that they want but again this goes back to my point like they don't they don't control the world like that their opponents will say things events will intervene anytime Anytime anything happens, it's an opportunity for Pierre Polyev to say, well, fuck you, would be great if parliament was around, even if parliament couldn't have done shit, right?
Corey
46:22
Their chaos, our catastrophe. Liberals are afraid to pick up the phone. Liberals are afraid to come into work. There's just so many things you can say about a government doing this this late in its mandate. And I just think that the problem the liberals have is most of those criticisms would be pretty
Zain
46:40
Corey, would you be a little bit nervous, if you're Pierre Poliev, that the liberals would engage in a, let's say, 90-day, 60-day rapid fire, choose their next leader process, and it takes you away from you running the tables, which you have been for the last, let's call it generously, last year and a half or
Zain
46:59
or so? Would you be even just a little bit nervous to acknowledge? Yeah,
Corey
47:04
Yeah, I for sure would, because like
Corey
47:06
like any politician looking up their opponent, sizing up their opponent when they're this far ahead in the polls, it is a real better the devil you know feeling out there, right? Think about here in Alberta, going into the most recent election, how much time and energy and probably frankly hope there was that Jason Kenney, historically unpopular Jason Kenney at the time, was going to be the leader of the UCP against the NDP. The NDP led for like two years in the polls, and then Daniel Smith came and that all changed. And the
Corey
47:37
reality is we do see that the electorate is pretty – I mean, forgiving is not even the word. Forgetful might be the word. Fickle, for sure, is
Corey
47:46
is a word that would apply here. They can just move on. And if the liberals just repackage things and find a new, more compelling person and get to do their line change last, as we've used as a metaphor before, I'm not sure that's to Pierre Polyev's advantage. Certainly, with Justin Trudeau's popularity being where it is, he'd rather run against him. So that is the risk.
Corey
48:08
If there's a leadership change, if this is just a general prorogation,
Zain
48:11
prorogation, let's get it done. Yes, I am going down the leadership track for a second and speculating on that. Yeah, I
Corey
48:15
I would say – but if it was not about a leadership change, I think that it's just – it's more downside than upside for the liberals. Carter,
Zain
48:22
Carter, talk to me about this. We've talked through could he.
Zain
48:26
We've talked through should he. We've talked through who the winners are, should they. You guys have also outlined the best circumstances to do it, the best prorogation strategies and circumstances to do it. We've talked about who the winners and losers are. are. Talk to me about the conversation. How do the liberals, once they do this, drive the conversation, right? So we were talking about how they could be net beneficiaries here. I now want to go a little bit further. I want both of your help to help me with how. The decision was made by the leader, and you guys are supporting the leader as chief strategists running the liberal party, right? The decision was made that we're doing this. And we were doing Let's just go down the lane to replace the leader because that's the one we've been talking about the most. How do you drive conversation? Do you talk about prorogation at all? Do you talk about the future? How do you take this and then move it to what you want to, which is either your reset or your new leadership or those things? How do you stay away from the obvious lines of attack that are going to come for you in that way? Help me flesh this strategy out a bit more. I almost want to do episodes like this where we take a few scenarios and walk them through. End this for me on how the liberals build this out, Carter, if they're going down this path. Well,
Carter
49:45
Well, I think that the way that they would do it is they would start
Carter
49:49
start unveiling. First of all, take your medicine. You're going to get hammered for the first couple of weeks. Just take your medicine. Don't try and disrupt that. It's just going to be what it's going to be. And you're going to suffer for a little bit. But
Carter
50:02
But then you're going to start taking control of the agenda. And the way you start taking control of the agenda is you start outlining what your next... I'm just going to go with the, uh, the scenario of taking control and putting forward a brand new agenda in the new year instead
Carter
50:17
instead of the leadership,
Carter
50:18
the leadership one, because the leadership one is pretty straightforward. He resigns and everybody goes, Oh my God, this is fantastic. And then they've changed the channel completely. Um, but if, if, if this is him sticking around and they're just trying to reset, then I think that this is going to be a, uh, you need to start putting things in the window that Canadians are going to find appealing. And honest to God, I think that one of the big ones that could be really interesting is election reform. But whatever it is, it better have more going for it than simple, you know, dental program for, you
Carter
50:55
you know, a third of the population or a quarter of the population. You
Zain
50:58
You prorogue, you change the conversation, you set the agenda. Corey, how do you keep volleying? How do you keep people focused on what you want them to focus? How do you deflect from your opposition criticisms? I know these are big questions, but help me with some guiding principles on these.
Corey
51:13
Yeah, much of it would be that communications track I laid down earlier about, listen, it's just a lot has changed, right? Chaos abound, and it's not just ours. And we do want to reflect on the message Canadians gave us here. Even Pierre Polyev would acknowledge the situation's materially changed. We're going to reset. I would own it a bit, right? Right. Like let let every attack that he makes just almost to this is maybe an extension of Carter's just eat your shit for two weeks thing. But when they say, oh, they're scared, say, no, we're not scared, but we did hear a message. And that message tells us we've got to reset. Right. Just take the blows and actually make the blows the point. Right. The NDP says there this is just because Casa got eliminated. Yeah, you're damn right. It's because Casa's gone. That's a big part of the story. we've now got to think about parliament a little bit differently and we've got to put a different legislative agenda together there that just makes sense like i think that there is a that just makes sense mini tag that you can do based on some of the things that are going on right there look
Corey
52:11
look we were elected in 2021 we plan to finish out this term but we do want to reflect the parliament that was elected and we want to reflect the most recent events that just makes sense and then do all of those steps you want to do and get ready to um to hit the ground in a big way when you come back with a pretty fucking splashy throne speech.
Zain
52:31
Talk to me about, finally, on the swap in leadership, because I think that's the most interesting of the options. Right, Carter? Yeah.
Zain
52:38
What does the ideal outcome for the liberals look like? Walk me through all the stages. So could he? Yes. Should he? He does. He calls it, he does it in a jolt. That's what you guys recommended. The opposition kind of gives their blows. He resigns, and they're into a leadership race. Carter, give to me the defined circumstances of what the most successful liberal leadership race could look like during a prorogued parliament before they come back with that aforementioned New Throne speech that Corey made. I
Carter
53:10
I think that number one, they would have to have multiple contenders. The idea of just- Can't be
Zain
53:15
be a coronation. No.
Carter
53:16
No. I mean, and this goes back, Ignatieff or John
Carter
53:21
John Turner or even
Carter
53:24
even Trudeau himself, right? Where really there was only one candidate that was running and winning.
Carter
53:29
There needs to be a competitive race. That competitive race needs to re-establish a fairly tired liberal party that doesn't want or doesn't know how to achieve its goals. And
Carter
53:44
that's the only way I can see this
Carter
53:47
this party actually starting to redefine and re-understand who
Carter
53:54
And then it needs to actually be successful in terms of financial side. It cannot hurt the party to have run this leadership race. And Corey will tell you better than I, leadership races are expensive and hard on parties. Yes.
Carter
54:11
how do you do that in such a fashion that without necessarily setting an entry fee of a gajillion dollars and, you know, entry requirements that just kind of constrain everything? How do you make it an open race where there's going to be multiple contenders where the party doesn't go bankrupt?
Carter
54:30
Those are going to be the the big the
Carter
54:33
big pushes. You know, it might be a 25 percent tax on every donation,
Carter
54:38
donation, right? that the party has to impose. That's a big number, but
Carter
54:42
but it may be the only way that the party can actually remain
Carter
54:47
solvent, even in the face of $150
Zain
54:52
Corey, what does a successful liberal leadership race during a prorogued parliament look like for them?
Corey
54:58
I agree they need a lot of contenders. You do want to create a sense everybody wants this job because right now people probably feel the opposite. Yes.
Zain
55:07
Even if it comes with the title of prime minister for even a short amount of time. I mean, we
Corey
55:10
we all know the story of John Turner.
Zain
55:12
all know the story
Corey
55:12
story of Kim Campbell. And those
Corey
55:15
those things do weigh on people as they start thinking about the party and its viability there.
Corey
55:21
But cabinet ministers, former cabinet ministers, business leaders, civic leaders, you want them all. You want like a really strong race that's pulling in an awful lot of people, but you want it to be fast. You want to go through it quickly because to Stephen's points, leadership races are hard. and you have a fucking election coming and you can't be doing this for the next six months, right? You've got to be able to move forward on like an election platform, election, you know, organization footing, I suppose. Like there's not like, there's no two turns here, right? You don't get to say, oh, this was my throne speech and my platform's coming next, right? It's all one thing.
Corey
55:58
thing. It's one thing. Someone's
Zain
55:59
Someone's got to run on their throne
Corey
55:59
throne speech. Like they're always
Corey
56:02
You've got to run on the throne speech. And that means you've got to be ready ready as soon as you're prime minister to get forward on this. And that's, that's really tough. Like that takes an awful lot of energy. And so you want to give yourself as much time as possible because you don't want to create a situation where for
Corey
56:17
for three months, there's this leadership contest, four months, there's this leadership contest. And then four more months, you're just sort of sitting around or it's not quite clear what's happening next. Like you got to hit the ground running.
Corey
56:27
And, uh, that means you got to come out of it in a, in a way that not everybody hates themselves too. And, and time. What
Zain
56:33
What do you mean? What do you mean by that? Not everyone. Well,
Corey
56:35
Well, I mean, the longer these things go on, the
Corey
56:37
the worse it gets for parties, generally speaking. You have people start to think, maybe
Corey
56:43
maybe I'm going to win this when they have no chance because they've just been sitting there marinating in their own bullshit for too long. You have battle lines drawn pretty firmly where all of a sudden, you've spent four months talking about how much you fucking hate the other person. And it's tough to come back from that. And that's fine maybe if you've got three years to patch things together before the election. If you've got three months, it's not fine. So you've got to be thinking about those things as well and the dynamics that you may be creating or maybe fostering through the rules of your leadership contest. Final
Zain
57:14
Final question before we move on to the over-under and lightning round. Carter, and this could belong in that section if I wanted to, but why would I? Yeah, exactly. Is this crazy? Is
Carter
57:25
may be more crazy that the prime minister continues to hold on.
Carter
57:30
He's lost key staff. He's lost his direction on his campaign team. He's down to the bare bones of the staff that were with him when he took the job as leader in 2013. was 2013 um
Carter
57:45
um you know this is this is the end of the team this isn't the beginning of the team this is the end and
Carter
57:52
and the only person who doesn't seem to notice it is the prime minister himself so
Carter
57:58
i think that this might be the best way for him to resign and to get out of it properly
Carter
58:03
but it doesn't get him to the june g7 right so it may not fit with his personal goals goals uh but i'd be at the point of fuck your leading leading that
Zain
58:13
that g7 meeting in in june yeah
Zain
58:16
um although although it could if he stays just to go back to some of the scenarios sorry that we were working through the scenario where he prorogues and stays sps
Corey
58:27
an insanely long prorogation right that was the one that i used at the top to say obviously that would be ridiculous right like i even got steven to agree a prorogation of that long would be ridiculous yeah
Corey
58:40
cory is this crazy steven yeah
Corey
58:43
yeah it is crazy um at the end of the day this is not hard we know exactly what's happening this is a government in its final days and no amount of madness is going to change that and i think when you look at it through those lens that lens um you
Corey
58:57
you want to be doing what's the best for maintaining the party in the position it's at and i can't believe i'm saying this but at this point it's probably justin trudeau goes in and and he gets about 20% of the vote, and the Liberals have a chance to be official opposition. I think one of the things we didn't talk about is what could come out of a contest like this is total wipeout. Somebody that Canadians don't know and don't care to know, and it just
Corey
59:20
Pierre Polyev's absolute coordination. You mean
Zain
59:21
mean from the pro-work leadership, sort of like the truncated leadership outcomes? Absolutely the case, yep.
Zain
59:27
So here we are. Or
Zain
59:28
Or we have our next Mulroney,
Carter
59:29
Mulroney, who knows? Moving
Zain
59:30
Moving on to our lightning round, Stephen Carter, two questions, and they're very easy.
Zain
59:36
here's the first question i asked you this earlier and you gave me an answer i want to see if you're going to give me the same answer should he yes
Carter
59:46
he should i don't
Zain
59:46
don't care it's over because he should
Zain
59:51
cory should he no
Zain
59:53
no will he yes of
Corey
59:55
course you're gonna say that well
Corey
59:57
well it's just he said you're asking us to predict and um that's right oh i get it yeah
Zain
1:00:02
yeah carter's track record perfect what
Carter
1:00:03
what do you mean jeb
Carter
1:00:05
jeb bush needs to survive this primary and compete in a general jeb bush is not surviving this primary he's totally surviving this primary mark it down on your calendar okay steven carter so hold on jeb bush is the guy uh
Zain
1:00:18
uh well now the listeners have heard exactly what you mean with the jeb bush club we're
Zain
1:00:24
we're gonna leave it there that's a wrap on episode 1827 of the strategist my name is zane belgi with me as always cory hogan steven carter and we'll see you next time