Episode 1815: Trump

Zain 0:01

This is the Strategist episode 1815. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Stephen Carter, Corey Hogan.

Zain 0:07

Guys, how's it going?

Carter 0:10

Not great. I had a great weekend. Oh, did you? Fantastic. Yeah. Yeah.

Carter 0:14

We already know that.

Corey 0:15

This is take two. Don't lie to the people. I already opened my can. There was the sound, and

Corey 0:20

now I don't have another can.

Carter 0:22

Never mind then, Zain. I'm not allowed to tell lies on the podcast. cast okay

Zain 0:26

okay well that would probably limit your on air time by a good 50 still beating

Carter 0:31

beating uh only cory on the afl pool but everybody else is now in front of me okay

Zain 0:38

had a fine weekend

Corey 0:39

weekend drama it was as you said in this first round yeah i said it was but that was a joke it wasn't true the first round zane it's not true this round oh

Zain 0:48

oh okay it was my son's birthday my

Corey 0:50

my youngest son's birthday i

Corey 0:52

content i think we're gonna remember yeah

Zain 0:55

you think you're gonna remember your son's birthday yeah

Corey 0:59

because it's the day western civilization ended that's what we're gonna remember carter

Zain 1:02

carter we're not gonna bullshit like the other podcasts okay i said this the first time i'm gonna say it again we're not gonna be like van jones on cnn saying that the the greatest gift that we've ever gotten this weekend is the the the fact that donald trump is still alive i mean great that he's still alive that's not the focus of this podcast steven carter we're gonna talk talk about the political strategy, because the presidential election, the dynamics have shifted,

Zain 1:26

say the least, Stephen Carter.

Zain 1:28

And listen, I would love to talk about the shooter and the motives and all that sort of stuff. I mean, let cable news figure all that out. This is the Strategist Podcast, Stephen Carter. We're not about the emotions. We're about the strategy. We're about the raw politics. So I have to ask you, Stephen, the first thought you had, no, actually, let me rephrase that. The first political thought you had when you heard about the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. And just saying those words is chilling. But when you heard about this attempted assassination, what

Zain 1:57

what was the first political thought? Spare me all the emotions, spare me all the human elements that I'm sure and I'm certain that certainly flooded you first.

Carter 2:06

I had no human reaction, Zane, no human reactions whatsoever. The only thing that hit me was one thought and one thought only. And that is, oh, fuck, I think Donald Trump just won in the election and i'm not sure that there can be much in the other in the way of other

Carter 2:22

other political thoughts i mean this is a guy ronald reagan almost almost gets killed he he becomes more more popular um jfk did get killed infinitely

Carter 2:33

infinitely but you know almost we don't treat him

Corey 2:35

him like a saint yeah almost

Carter 2:37

almost a god you know he did no wrong said did our jfk um abraham lincoln you know like any Well, I think there was one other president who was assassinated. I want to say it was Grant, but I don't know for sure. And that was going to, you know, it kind of takes away my entire point, which is we remember those who get assassinated.

Zain 2:58

It was not Grant Hill, president of Team USA basketball, that was assassinated for those keeping track, Corey. Hey, what was your first political strategist's thought? Not your first human thought, as much as I'd like to, you know, soak up all those feelings. Give me your first political thought. Was it the exact same one Carter had? had it

Corey 3:19

i i definitely my first thought was oh

Corey 3:22

oh my god if if he doesn't survive it could be chaos i think that kind of like because we didn't know right he was just taken off the stage we didn't know he was grazed at the bullet you never know and uh my second one was he

Corey 3:36

he is he has just going to he's just become a god to his supporters right that shot of him being apparently grazed by either through the bullet or some glass from the teleprompter there's some kind of speculation about that right but hit and then um hitting

Corey 3:55

hitting the ground and then coming up surrounded by the secret service and him saying like wait wait and just raising his fist and shouting like fight but by the way i'm sure there's already merchandise on donaldtrump.com that says fight because shit that was cinematic right like it was over the top like it was central casting style stuff If you saw it in a movie, you would think it was like over the top, but you'd also be like chilled by it and be like, damn,

Corey 4:20

that was cool as hell. It was really, really powerful. As much as I loathe the guy, it was really, really powerful. And then he's pulled off and he's an absolute legend to his supporters now. Like that is some Hollywood shit right there. That is crazy. easy and um my more nuanced political thoughts that followed are this

Corey 4:41

this man i continue to believe despite apparently this week and we're not allowed to say it is a threat to democracy in the united states but it feels like now that the central argument against donald trump at least for the next little bit is going to be something nobody's allowed to say yeah that's really wow wow does that jam the democrats let's

Zain 5:00

let's let's talk about that in a second uh i like that cory you said you loathe him. In previous worlds, we probably would have said we hate him to death. But I guess we're not allowed to say that. But not on this podcast, Carter. We

Zain 5:14

break all the rules. And also, we're in a different country in case they want to come after us for some reason whatsoever. Hey, Carter, talk to me about this. Mechanistically, walk

Zain 5:22

walk me through why your first thought is it's over.

Zain 5:28

Like, talk to me like politically mechanistically. Is it simply Simply because, is it Corey's point that Biden doesn't, you know, his central argument is lost? Is it that Trump's voter turnout is now going to be 105% because he's a god, as both of you have kind of indicated? Like mechanistically walk me through it. Because I think we all probably have the same emotion, many people online too, but very rarely does anyone show their work. Work. Show your work, Carter. Like, talk to me about what elements kind of make you think, fuck, this is this is over. And of course, you guys have both mentioned this, the imagery as well. But like, make the make the argument for me. Put it together. There

Carter 6:04

is no stronger emotion than kind of like human empathy. And

Carter 6:07

And it wasn't like Donald Trump was able to access human empathy on a regular basis prior to this shot, right? He bragged about being able to shoot people on Fifth Avenue and his supporters wouldn't leave him. him. But

Carter 6:25

you've got this empathy and it reminds me actually, and this is going to be a weird comparison, but it reminds me of Jack Layton in his last election when he was campaigning with death forthcoming from cancer. I mean, it was a heroic and spectacular effort that he put in and people responded to it. Alison Redford's mother passed away and people responded to it. It also made it so that her opposition couldn't throw any punches at her. I mean, what are you going to do? You're going to throw punches at the woman whose mother just died? You're going to throw punches at the guy who just got shot? You're probably not going to be doing a big negative ad run. On top of that, I mean, the human empathy is going to be able to fill his coffers. I went to DonaldTrump.com because Corey suggested that we go there.

Carter 7:18

Here's the page. Alert from Trump.

Carter 7:20

Fear not. I am Donald J. Trump. Fear not. I

Carter 7:24

I will always love you for supporting me. Unity. Peace. Make America great again.

Carter 7:29

And then the donation button.

Zain 7:32

Fear not. Fear not. I don't mind that. I actually think unity is such an interesting aspect of all of this. Oh, Lord. Yeah, I know, Corey. I know. Talk to me about this. Is there anything else you'd like to add to Carter's math of showing the work? why your first instinct is also like oh shit this might be over yeah

Corey 7:52

yeah well here's the other one we thought it was over if joe biden remained the candidate and now i think that that a that discourse is blown right off the front page but b how

Corey 8:03

how do you replace joe biden now at this moment it actually seems almost impossible because it will look like well

Corey 8:09

well we'll see like we're getting more details about the shooter we're recording at a time where the motives are still a little murky but it looks like maybe maybe

Corey 8:16

maybe just your garden variety american psychopath school shooter style shooter right which hardly seems like much of a defense but it's not necessarily looking deeply politically motivated at least not like as a democrat attacking a republican but there

Corey 8:32

there have been so many comments made by republicans like this environment was created by joe biden and right and that's that's

Corey 8:47

that's pretty interesting let's

Zain 8:49

let's talk about the first a republican and the trump side of things and and there's two things i want to pick up on number one and then we both we mentioned both of them in some way shape or force carter do you like from a political strategist perspective trump now owning unity do you think that's a smart play and do you think that's a sustainable play uh between now and november he doesn't really need to actually preserve it beyond the election day. But do you think it's a smart now to November play? Heading into, of course, and we haven't mentioned it on this podcast just yet, but heading into, of course, his convention weekend where he was going to name his vice president and formally accept the nomination. Talk to me about him owning unity on

Zain 9:27

on the heels of this incident.

Carter 9:29

Well, I'll tell you something. The Americans

Carter 9:32

Americans are going to look at this as an attack, not just on Donald Trump, but on the country itself, right? That's how they are going to to frame this. It's not just an attack on Donald Trump. It's an attack on the entire country. And because of that, they're going to view unity and standing together, I think, similar to they did after September the 11th, when being on one side or the other side was not allowed. You were only on America's side. And that's one of the reasons that George Bush was able to push through some of his really really really bad war ideas um but nonetheless donald trump has worse ideas and i think he does get to stand on the on the unity frame and i do think that people will join this unity frame because they will now feel like they are a part of it in a way that they didn't feel like they were a part of it before i couldn't stand donald trump before but after he got shot he seemed more human to me right

Carter 10:29

right i can almost hear people saying that and and giving them the unity frame gives them the opportunity to say i'm standing with donald trump not because he's donald trump but because i stand with the united states of america i

Carter 10:40

i think it's really powerful framing i think it's going to hold um i i don't know how long it probably holds until donald trump fucks it up which

Carter 10:50

which could be tomorrow or it could be you know after after the election it

Zain 10:54

it also opens up a really on that last point i'll just put this out there because mainly to to kind of remind myself that I do want to talk about it.

Zain 11:01

it. There is a school of thought that existed even prior to this weekend's historic incident that said if Donald Trump went into hiding, he would win this election. And

Zain 11:10

And now you have probably the most valid excuse for him to quote-unquote go into hiding, which should be discussed. Corey, talk to me about unity. He owns it on his website. You hear it as a primary Republican talking point over the course of the last 30 hours. Chill, the country needs to calm down and unite, unity, unity, calm down, unity. And it's very much not just unity, it's unity as represented by the leadership of Donald Trump or as represented by the heinous act done against Donald Trump. What do you think of them owning this frame? Do you see downside risk or is this just pure political opportunism as it should be on their part and they should lean into the skid sort of thing?

Corey 11:51

Well, I am very much of the opinion that if there is a group in

Corey 11:55

in United United States politics that has created a threat of violence over all discourse. It is the Republicans. So the idea that they can just sort of wash that away, and then just pretend in fact that it's the Democrats that have caused this poisonous situation.

Corey 12:11

Wow. I mean, like when you talk about political get out of jail free cards, I cannot think of a stronger one in my lifetime. They basically by embracing unity just get to say, such a shame that the Democrats have gotten us to to this place. And the Democrats being kind of

Corey 12:27

of absolutely boxed in on this and also just not good at politics generally are just saying, yes, yes. Oh, it is such a shame. We all must calm down now. And their entire argument has been that

Corey 12:39

that this man is an existential threat. The Republicans are now saying, you saying he's an existential threat to democracy is what caused this, is the existential threat. And the Democrats seem to be, at least in the short term, validating that that viewpoint if not outright embracing it in some context so or

Zain 12:54

or having have no alternative no no well no

Corey 12:57

no i really want to test that in a minute i really want to test that in a minute because people just ran to that so quickly i think that that ultimately became self-fulfilling but

Corey 13:06

they're um you know there's there's a situation now where all of a sudden the the democrats don't feel that they can say anything about the threat that donald trump represents right let

Zain 13:16

let me get to that because there's a bunch of almost like strategic things that democrats have done or not done over the course of the last little bit that I want to test with you guys to say was, were those the right strategic moves in a sense? But before we move on, Carter, how do the Republicans, and I'm going to speak very crassly here, how do the Republicans extend their get out of jail free card honeymoon? How do they make this, like, how do they prevent Democrats, the media, others from talking about Donald Trump as an existential threat on democracy as a ballot box question for as long as possible? You've seen how they've successfully, almost with ease, I remember watching an interview this morning, Kristen Welker, we're interviewing Lindsey Graham, asking about how J.D. Vance, who is, you know, rumored to be the VP pick for Trump, or at least in the top two VP picks for Trump, tweeting out something saying that Joe Biden created this environment. Lindsey Graham pretty much says, listen, today, I'm just glad the president is alive. Okay.

Corey 14:10

Okay. And no pushback whatsoever.

Zain 14:14

No pushback whatsoever. No pushback in a follow up when it was thrown to the panel and there was Democratic strategists. How do the Republicans crassly, opportunistically, politically extend their stay with this particular get out of jail free card and extend it to November? What advice would you give them if you're in the Trump war room today? this

Carter 14:33

this and they're experts at it zane they're experts at it what advice do i need to give them then when they already every school shooting they say this isn't the time to talk politics this isn't the time to be uh uh jumping on sides uh there is no there's no evidence that that you know guns are the problem um you know guns are the problem but they they they continue to have this this isn't the time type of mentality and they will this isn't the time until it's the time has passed and i think that the time the the question is how long does this time last for and

Carter 15:08

time is going to last for as

Carter 15:11

as you know a long a lot longer than a school shooting um you

Carter 15:16

you know there's a school shooting on average or there's a mass shooting every day in the united states um this isn't going to this knocked them all off the headlines but they're knocking themselves all off the headlines so i don't i don't i don't think there's any anything that the that the democrats can do to get past the republicans saying this isn't the time and that's the thing that's that's the that's the fucking trump card trump card see what i did there i'll

Zain 15:46

i'll get to that in a second in terms of democrats cory let me ask the question maybe in a slightly different way the conventions this week if

Zain 15:52

if you're the rnc and the trump campaign are you scrapping the entire convention uh in this i mean obviously there's going to be some obvious building blocks you have to name a vp certain speeches are going to happen but the central theme are you making it about this so you can extend your unity honeymoon as long as you can knowing exactly what we said at the front end of it that you may have this thing locked up unless you fuck it up um

Corey 16:17

um i don't know that it's tough to me for me to imagine they're going to entirely throw out the rundown I suspect that the Republicans will instead

Corey 16:25

instead maybe go on the offensive a little bit. I think Vance maybe gave us a bit of a foreshadowing of the kind of messaging we can expect, where we can say, this

Corey 16:32

this country, you know, the Democrats are so concerned about losing power, that

Corey 16:37

that they are willing to create an environment where somebody who disagrees with them will be shot. And it'll be framed that way. Disagreed, right? Do

Zain 16:44

Do you think that's where the Republicans need to go here? They

Corey 16:47

They need to go on the offensive? Agreed as though the man did not on January 6th try to have a coup against the United States of America entirely.

Corey 16:54

The stakes are pretty high and the Democrats right now are rolling over on it here. If I'm the Republicans, though, I have no reason to roll over. I mean, I don't need to look at the Democrats and say, hmm,

Corey 17:06

I'm worried that I might lose them. them.

Corey 17:08

I say, I remind of kind of January 6, just to say, if

Corey 17:13

if the Democrats are willing to roll over at this particular moment, what makes you think that you can't press your advantage? Like, why are you so worried about reserving your advantage?

Corey 17:21

If I'm the Republicans, I'm actually pushing a little bit further. And I'm trying to make the Democrats seem like the villains in all this thing.

Zain 17:28

Carter, is that is that your vibe here? Or are you actually a little bit more restrained saying I actually want to preserve unity, not go on the offensive here? Because you could, you know, extending Corey's take and adding analogy, you could kind of think about this as a power play, right? Like, or the other side with one hand behind their back, at least for a limited time. Are you trying to take advantage of that momentary time? Or are you trying to extend that time? Not to get too sort of, you know, illustrative, but there's multiple schools of thought here. Go on the offensive, regardless of how much time you have, let that, you know, be up to fate, or extend the time that you have to kind of have this chiller, calmer, runway where the other side can't make up the deficit that they were in even prior to this weekend.

Carter 18:13

Yeah, I mean, I want to equate this to Allison's mother passing. I really do. And we had different choices to make that day. And the day of the debate, which was two days later, so a little bit earlier than this Republican National Convention would have been, but still relatively close to the same timeline. We addressed it at the beginning and then went on with business as usual. And I think that, you know, I would argue that the way to extend this isn't to go on the offensive. The way to extend this is to minimize.

Carter 18:49

And the minimization, you know, everybody talks about how disciplined Donald Trump is. Everybody talks about how disciplined the Republican Party is. Those are the types of things that can really change the outcome. if if you know if they were to show if if if they had um just the vice president uh nominee speak about donald trump's uh bravery in the face of this situation um and then no one else talked about it that to me would be an interesting way of dealing with this that may extend the story for much longer than going on the offensive so i think now

Carter 19:28

do i think they'll do that no i think that the republican national congress and the trumps only have one play and that play is to go aggressive and to go over the top and to push and that might be their undoing yeah

Zain 19:41

yeah any take on that before we move on look

Corey 19:44

look i i certainly think that there's been a couple of things even in the the last 24 hours that make me think they're thinking the way steven is not least of which is apparently donald trump expressed gratitude to joe biden calling him his

Corey 19:58

message yesterday didn't attack the democrats now there's a few reasons that might be the case one is we simply don't know enough about the motives of this shooter and if it turns out that he was actually uh you know some some far right info wars junkie who who decided that alex jones was right when he said that uh donald trump has been co-opted by israeli interests and so you know maybe maybe this is all like we just don't know right now and and so that's a pretty dangerous place for them to go too far out on a limb and and suggest it's the democrats and then look like fools right like i think in some ways they're waiting for the facts to come in i do believe they'll go on the offensive for the same reason that we believe that the democrats are fucked and

Corey 20:40

and that is that if the the Democrats make the assessment they cannot win the election because all of a sudden it's all kumbaya for Donald Trump. They are going to break from that. They're going to start taking a different strategy. They're going to have to. I'm not even saying they're going to be successful, but if that strategy is guaranteed doom for the Democrats all the way across the ballot, they're going to pick a different approach along the way. And so why wait for them to be the ones who start to chisel away at that sense of unity? Why not put them on the back foot? Why not actually try to score a few points along the way there and try to make them like you're basically if

Corey 21:14

if you take the approach of i can't believe they did this shame on them i'm so mad at the democrats for creating this environment and then the democrats start attacking you they're reinforcing your message but if you're sitting there and you're like mr unity and you're and you're the one who's turning the other cheek as the democrats start to fade away from you they're like at one point you're gonna have to break on unity anyways so what's the most advantageous time to break on unity. And I actually believe it's probably right now while the Democrats are in disarray, and some of them will start scolding the other of them saying, I can't believe you're attacking Donald Trump at this particular moment, as Van Jones weeps quietly on CNN and says, we are all mega today. You know, like, why not? Like the Democrats are showing themselves to be such a shit show, and you will find people break ranks with people who start to push against Donald Trump.

Zain 22:03

Carter, let me talk about the Democrats through a side door before we get get to the main topic. Sure.

Corey 22:11

Is it over for Gretchen Whitmer, for

Zain 22:13

for Josh Shapiro, for Kamala Harris? This is what we were discussing. This was the fever pitch. This was going to be the election game changer. Who the Democrats introduced or stuck with.

Zain 22:26

Do you agree with Corey that that conversation is completely dead? Or do you see some revival of that conversation actually being more strategic and more impactful now than it was prior to this weekend?

Carter 22:42

The shooter missed Trump, but it got the replace Biden idea. It did not. It's just simply not going to happen. Was that

Zain 22:50

that like a planned Van Jones line for you? No, believe

Carter 22:54

it or not, I had

Carter 22:56

a way worse line.

Zain 22:56

line. Can I give it to you? I'm going to give it to you. What he said, it's, we need ballots, not bullets.

Carter 23:03

my god that's terrible that is the worst okay keep

Zain 23:07

keep going keep going carter yeah you're not ready for american cable prime time but i feel like your training wheels are on very firmly yeah keep going i

Carter 23:18

made me feel uncomfortable uh i

Carter 23:21

i i just think that uh that joe biden for all the reasons that cory articulated um joe biden can't step down now i mean if he steps down at this this particular moment, all the conspiracies are true. This is Joe Biden who orchestrated everything. I mean, these guys, half of this audience of the MAGA audience was already believing in a Q, right? I mean, the Q phenomenon has died of late, but they're willing to take on another conspiracy theory. And why not that Joe had this done and then the Democrats thought he went too far so that they

Carter 23:55

they replaced him? I mean, that's entirely viable.

Zain 23:58

Corey, you're a Democratic strategist. You have the same political thought that the two of you, the three of us had the second we saw that Donald Trump clip. If you think it's already over, is it now not the best time to say, fuck it, we actually need to make a go of any of these other people who might be a spent political force next cycle sort of thing? Like, they've got some value now. Let's just swap it. Like, fuck it, sort of thing. If you already believe you're in quasi Hail Mary territory, might

Zain 24:25

Well, time was always short.

Corey 24:27

joe biden look i he could still be replaced but time was always short and now you're going to lose at least the next week or two big time this story is going to consume all of us we still don't know enough about the shooter the motive some of the consequences down the road that just we can't even envision at this particular moment obviously did the secret service fuck up is something that people are already asking a lot of questions about here and

Corey 24:53

it's hard for me to imagine that you're going to get your act together in time for the dnc and and so time i think is actually now the thing that they've lost that was the most essential for a change some of them are more if thens like if it turns out this shooter has ties to the democrats however tenuous right

Corey 25:12

right if he was posted on message boards but oh it's a you know i really loved like like the tuition cancellation policy, and I'm real mad about this or anything like that.

Corey 25:21

Then I think you also have the problem of people are going to say, see Joe Biden, you created this environment. And so him stepping down would almost look like an affirmation of that to many Americans, or it would look like the Democrats are

Corey 25:34

are just so broken and, you know, broken just at the same time as other broken all gets blended together. And, and even if you don't see it as causal, it just looks like, well, these fucking Democrats look at this chaotic situation they've created in their party in our nation so that becomes a problem the if then could break the other way and if the if then does break the other way and all of a sudden it's not looking like it was anybody with any kind of democratic or progressive ties then i think maybe you get a little bit of space but you still have the time problem and unless joe biden really decides he's gonna have to make a switch that's a challenge but it's clear to me that now that joe biden is also saying well this is my chance to go out there and make a couple of very presidential speeches and remind people of like my presidentialness and move past this we've seen him more in the past couple of days than we've seen him in the like year before he's had a prime time address tonight he had an address this morning

Corey 26:29

he was gonna have a prime time address tonight he had an address yesterday

Zain 26:32

yesterday we forgot all about this big boy press conference i was supposed to define his political future on Thursday, right? That

Zain 26:41

I get to what Biden and the Democrats can do, let me give you some of the things they have done and tell me as a strategist if you disagree with any of these. Sure.

Zain 26:52

They've pulled down their ads.

Zain 26:54

Biden did a presidential address tonight from the Oval. He's called Trump and they're canceling events, at least in the near term future. Anything on that list that you disagree with from a strategist brain there's

Carter 27:04

there's absolutely no advantage to running ads most of them are probably negative about trump anyways uh you may as well pull them down as they're only going to be negatives um no

Carter 27:14

no point in doing events you know they're all that anybody's going to be talking about during your events is your security setup anyways is it different than what trump had is it the same that what as what trump had so you may as well pull it out and i can't remember the third one presidential address

Carter 27:30

and giving trump a phone call

Carter 27:32

for it love it all

Carter 27:33

all of it makes perfect sense to me and

Zain 27:36

and calling trump you in on that too yeah

Carter 27:39

yeah i think you have to cory

Zain 27:41

cory this is what they've done thus far you four for four on on the the universe that they can control at least they seem to have controlled in front of them on those things no

Corey 27:52

have a real problem with all of this because again it it doesn't just undercut their central campaign theme i I think it undercuts, it makes it look like it's not reality, right? You can't talk about the stakes being so high and just saying, geez, I guess we're going to have, I guess now that somebody heard them, I guess that's not true anymore. And I guess we better all stop for a little bit here. I, you know, it's almost an impossible tightrope to walk, but they have to walk the tightrope of this is terrible. It happened. It doesn't lower the stakes of this election, but they're, they're not doing that.

Corey 28:24

They're, they're not doing that. And in fact, I think they're diminishing their core arguments in a way that is not

Corey 28:29

not going to be easy to walk back from.

Carter 28:31

Corey's got a new running mate for Joe Biden. It's the bullet two inches to the right. That's his new running mate.

Corey 28:39

That's not what I'm saying. Oh,

Carter 28:41

Oh, that's not what you're saying? But honestly, you can't... I misheard it.

Corey 28:44

Okay, let me put it a different way. For

Corey 28:47

For months, you have been saying the stakes of this election could not be higher. It is so important. It is so vitally important. We need to have a conversation about what Joe Biden or what Donald Trump means to American democracy. And the minute, like,

Corey 28:59

like, you know, Donald Trump gets hurt, you're like, actually, we can't have that conversation. We're all Americans, right? You're actually making it look like it was just bullshit politics every time you

Corey 29:08

you said that. You're

Zain 29:08

You're leaning in and you're also leaning into the frame that the, or you can call it a frame or a bear trap that the other side has set for you saying,

Zain 29:14

unity is presented over here. Like, guys, this guy, you've dialed him up. You've painted him to be a monster. he's actually a unifier you can see it on our website and he got shot

Corey 29:26

fear not fear not though there's a donate button but

Zain 29:30

but there there is something to cory's point here carter as a strategist with we talked about the limited runway that they have to make up the deficit even prior to this weekend so are you just saying you kill these next two weeks and you retool on the back end of when things cool down or or do you do you actually try to walk the tight rope that cory is suggesting that that you do you

Carter 29:49

you can try and walk the tight rope that cory's suggesting you'll fail you'll fall to your death but what the hell give it a whirl um i want

Corey 29:56

want to make i want to make this argument after what you go instead

Carter 29:59

instead what i would try and do is is take things it's not like everything was working before anyways take it down take a two two week break or a week and a half break and then come back out with something that actually fucking works and and you better have figured something out uh that's good enough because right now you

Carter 30:17

you know I don't think that it's any secret that the Democrats' tactics and strategies aren't working to this point.

Zain 30:26

You know, Corey, make your counter-argument, and then I've got a point about the presidential address in particular, which is it may also be not necessarily helping the Democrats' core weakness on strategy, but make the counter-argument to Carter here, or how you walked that tightrope.

Corey 30:39

Yeah, three simple points. One, they continue this path. We have all already agreed. We agreed from the first thing we said here that the Democrats lose the election. right? Two,

Corey 30:49

you end up there anywhere. Like at a certain point, you're going to go back to Donald Trump as a threat to democracy because he is a threat to democracy. And he's going to do something to remind us of that threat, whether it's threatening to jail his opponents or some other crazy bullshit, you're going to end up there. And three, when you end up there, you don't want to make it look like it was all bullshit because yeah, it's the politician who cried wolf, right? The problem is you can't spend a month saying, no, no, no, we're going to tamp down that rhetoric and then bring back that rhetoric if anything you're creating a massive trap for yourself like you're sitting there tut tutting how everybody has gone so extreme with this and even you dial down your rhetoric that

Corey 31:27

that you're going to have to return to at some point is a very bad strategy by the democrats we've

Carter 31:31

we've dialed down our rhetoric on this show have i'm the only one who made a bullet two inches to the right job that's

Carter 31:38

where's your bullet two inches i don't want i don't

Corey 31:41

don't want anybody to be shot like i don't i don't know

Carter 31:43

know like my rhetoric usually

Corey 31:45

let's all go shoot donald trump for god's sake no

Carter 31:48

no but what's the message then what's

Carter 31:49

what's the message like if you're not pulling you're pulling down the ads right like you had to pull down the ads because you need to rework the creative at the very least right

Corey 31:56

right you know what i'm

Corey 31:57

i'm not convinced i would have so

Carter 31:59

so you're going to keep the the you're going to keep the and and the word that we use is attack ads up across all the swing states well

Corey 32:07

well what's your alternative pull

Carter 32:09

pull them for three three days while you figure out what your head from your ass and

Carter 32:13

create brand new creative that extols President Biden's leadership qualities as a placeholder, at least until such time as you can figure out how to get back onto the attack side.

Corey 32:26

So, okay, I would actually be fine with just running the positive ads, the pro-Biden ads, and shelving for retooling the attack ads. I'm not suicidal about this. But the idea that you're going to pull all ads i think is is is nonsense i do i i really believe the democrats have just walked this

Corey 32:45

this is a terrible situation the republicans are handling it in a politically savvy way and the democrats are not the democrats are actually i think because there's

Carter 32:53

there's no politically savvy way to handle this there

Corey 32:57

there are politically unsavvy ways to handle it though steven and one of the main ones in my opinion is surrendering your central argument about a man who is legitimately a threat to democracy that's

Carter 33:07

that's going to come across as um we were sad that the bullet didn't miss that's that's what that's how do

Zain 33:14

do can i can i can i talk about how we got here though like this this donald trump being shot this connection and and that being a connection to like that being the argument for democracy is broken do

Zain 33:27

do you feel like

Corey 33:28

like how did we get

Zain 33:28

get here to that argument so quickly in a matter of minutes hours sort of thing like Like, was that Republican spin from what you guys saw? Was that just Democratic lack of, like, filling the space and the time? How do you think we got here so quickly to, like, oh, shit, as soon as this happens, like, their central argument gets wiped away? Well,

Corey 33:47

Well, this happened on January 6th the other way, right? For a while before the Republicans drifted back to it. But it was an event that was so shocking that everybody who just thought we were in kind of heightened rhetoric land was – it was easy for people to think they were somewhere else until somebody kind of snapped them out of that and said, no, this is reality. This is where we are. We're at a place where politicians are being shot again. You know, just like Garfield and McKinley, the two that Stephen couldn't remember at the start,

Corey 34:14

start, but I couldn't get

Corey 34:15

in there to say. He

Corey 34:16

died somewhere. And then you start to think – No, Grant Hill's still alive. Maybe everything is different. Yeah.

Zain 34:21

Grant Hill's still alive. live Team USA basketball will underachieve at the Olympics. Hey, Carter, talk to me about this. I've got another thought here, which is we have seen in politics that often the most important source of information comes at the end or later, and it is misaligned when people are paying attention the most. And I think we might be experiencing that moment, which is who the shooter was and what his motivation was. We may not actually find that out in this apex of attention and solidification of empathy for Donald Trump.

Zain 34:55

And if you're the Trump campaign, how are you strategizing for if this was, let's say, Corey's hypothetical, a far-right Alex Jones style, if this was someone on, quote-unquote, your team, not a great look for you, not as sympathetic or empathetic of a look as if it were your political opponent. How do you minimize that? How do you move on and capture the emotion with leaving the fact base behind? Because that's the world they're in right now. The best part of this political moment for them, if I can call it that, because I will, has already happened for them. Everything else, not necessarily, quote unquote, helpful. How do they capture the emotion of the last 24 hours without having any of the rest of the fact base undermine them? You're

Carter 35:40

You're actually asking me how the Republicans deal with facts? They

Carter 35:43

They just ignore them, right?

Carter 35:45

right? It doesn't matter that this guy held a Republican National Party membership. It's obvious that he was a Democrat. He hated Trump. Only

Carter 35:53

Only Democrats hate Trump. Everybody

Carter 35:55

Everybody else loves Trump.

Carter 35:57

Ergo, this must be a Democrat, right?

Carter 36:01

right? Right? That's as simple as the argument needs to be.

Carter 36:06

I don't care what memberships he held. He was just trying to cover himself.

Carter 36:10

Right? He's just trying to make it look like the Republicans are fighting within. We're not fighting within. The Democrats are literally trying to kill us.

Zain 36:18

Corey, same question for you.

Zain 36:20

What do you think? How do you capture the emotion without necessarily planning for a scenario where the fact base might be against you sort of thing or not as advantageous?

Corey 36:30

yeah this is a young man who in joe biden's america thought that the only solution was to pick up a gun and try to shoot a

Corey 36:38

a former president it's

Corey 36:39

it's as simple as that and he can point fingers and he can talk about where he was registered to vote well of course he was you know of course you want to vote in the pennsylvania

Corey 36:48

pennsylvania primaries that's that's a swing election and that's that's an an interesting place to be but um no listen we know that the heightened rhetoric that led to this is squarely at the feet of the democrats like that's what they're going to say and and they're going to have the massive assist from that steven talked about that there's going to be like a million kind of rumors and innuendos and suggestions out there and there'll be links to people with the same name who were involved in democratic politics that were 40 years older and and all this other shit right like that's that's it's going to take nothing nothing for somebody to kind of blow it up and say see evidence and you're going to have people out there being like well i heard he actually you know babysat for joe biden when he lived in

Zain 37:33

after the convention give me the level of trump's exposure that he should have 10 is maximal continue to be trump continue to give the speeches speeches give more of these sort of speeches, galvanize the base even more, all the way to what you'd call a zero or a one, which is COVID-style hiding. And in some ways, there's strategic advantage to both, right? The exposure builds the base, builds the movement, gives you the visuals, galvanizes the voter turnout. The go into hiding protects your lead in some ways, limits the exposure externally, doesn't let you fuck up the advantage that this this weekend has brought to you politically where are you if you're advising donald trump the

Carter 38:14

the next biggest day after to after the weekend in terms of how uh trump gains an advantage is the day that he steps on the stage again the

Carter 38:23

the day that he walks up onto the stage and it's another open air event and he's proving that he's not afraid that

Carter 38:29

that day he he you know the how long do you think the applause will last for cory three days four days like they won't stop chanting his his name they will not stop chanting his name but he will not fight

Corey 38:41

fight as well yeah yeah

Carter 38:42

yeah fight and fear not apparently we'll get we'll get uh some some airtime as well i mean this is you

Carter 38:49

you know he doesn't have to do it immediately but if he did it you know a week after the rnc he

Carter 38:57

he could be a demigod by the time he leaves the state or

Zain 39:00

or step all over the dnc if he wanted to do that yeah or in some some sort of way.

Zain 39:05

Corey, what are you thinking about Trump's exposure going forward? If you're thinking about it strategically, are you putting him out there? I mean, all of this pending that he's doing well and his health is okay. Are you putting him out there back on the stump doing Trump-like stuff? Or are you trying to protect the lead?

Corey 39:21

No, I'm putting him out there because the elections, look, people move on so bloody fast. And we're still talking about this like this is the only thing people will talk about through November. And I just don't believe believe that's true. It's part of why I think that the Democrats have really fucked this up, at least in the first few hours here. But you're

Corey 39:39

you're going to have a situation where Donald Trump needs to, well, he might be so far ahead, it doesn't matter, but he's still going to want to draw the contrast with Joe Biden, right?

Corey 39:48

right? He's still going to want to be able to say, look at me, I'm out there, I'm talking to people, I'm doing events. Joe Biden's hiding. Joe Biden can't give a speech. Joe Biden doesn't like to meet with people. And I don't think if you're Donald Trump, the other thing that you want is to look like you're hiding like you've got so much kind of like alpha energy like sigma energy machismo the guy just gets shot in the ear and then he's chanting like fight fight fight and trying to keep the secret service from dragging him off the stage holy shit right he looks like an absolute legend to a certain type of person and you're you don't want to like risk that by all of a sudden looking like you're you're not you're not confident enough enough to go around to these places.

Zain 40:31

Carter, let's spend the next few minutes talking about what the Dems can do. Their climb is uphill. Let's say a few things stay in place. They're keeping Biden.

Zain 40:42

They're keeping these ads off the air for now. Any of the things that I've mentioned, their presidential address happened. They've called Trump. They've canceled events. Those things are in place. We can reverse any of those, but start talking to me about, from a message and tactics perspective, Maybe let's start with message.

Zain 40:57

Where they go from here. Corey would probably argue, and I'll let Corey speak for himself, that they need to go back to their core question. Carter, has he persuaded you throughout this episode that they need to go back to their core question? Or are you trying to find another ballot box question to define Donald Trump because you feel like you've actually burnt that one and there's no use in trying to go back to it any time between now and November? Well,

Carter 41:19

Well, the ballot box question that you want at this stage isn't the ballot box question that you have. So you may as well work on the question that exists. And that question that exists is, is Joe Biden too old to be the president of the United States? So you may as well start by addressing that question. that that would be where i started you know so let's put up all the different you know great paces of of the of the stately address or let's let's make sure that we've got you know the whatever press conference is the most important press conference whatever speech is the most important speech let's take live or let's take snippets of those and package them into positive ads and that's where i would start my advertising again positive positive ads and then i would work up a series of negative ads that focus

Carter 42:03

focus on trump in a new way right um

Carter 42:06

um that that takes danger to democracy and turns it into dangerous for you right

Carter 42:12

right dangerous for you um

Carter 42:14

um you know he's he's going to wreck the economy he's going to uh reduce you know billionaires taxes which is going to increase your tax load it's it's going he's going to make things worse for you this is always my my big critique of uh danger to democracy um he's going to be a danger to democracy so so what

Carter 42:38

right so what how

Carter 42:40

how does that impact me democracy's

Carter 42:41

democracy's already fucked me what do i care right

Carter 42:44

right so you have to always remind people of why things matter to them and i think that that's where biden's team really needs to return the messaging to uh so that's that's what i would do is is take a negative attack that says, you

Carter 43:01

know, Donald Trump is bad for you, and Joe Biden

Zain 43:10

talk to me about message. Are you abandoning the democracy frame? Are you reinventing it? Are you going with something like women's rights and just pivoting the, I mean, of course, there's a lot of polling to suggest this, but we're in a fluid sort of territory right now, and you may need to react relatively quickly, at least to keep the window of possibilities open for you as wide as you need to. What are you thinking about messaging?

Corey 43:32

I'm torn because I do generally agree with what Stephen said, which is you've got to make it a little bit more relevant to the voter.

Corey 43:39

On some of the specifics, I quibble like I'm not sure Joe Biden is seen as better on the economy than Trump. In fact, I'm quite sure the opposite is true. But I think the overall idea that you need to, maybe even absent this event, the Democrats needed to consider how they make sure that they can win in swing states with swing voters and and maybe some of their rhetoric was not helpful, is a legitimate argument that I would entertain and probably even have supported. The problem is not so much that they would pivot, it's what they're pivoting from. And how

Corey 44:09

how do you go from like this big, massive thing to just saying, actually, that was all a lie, or like, that's not as big as we said, maybe is the more charitable

Corey 44:18

So now we're just going to walk away from that entirely and have any credibility left at at all like they've they've gone to 11 on this particular topic to dial that down to a two and just say you know what yeah we've got some concerns but hey no big like i think that's crazy

Corey 44:33

crazy i think that's truly crazy for the democrats to be considering that i'm not sure that they are and i do believe that in these first couple of days after they've they've really maybe

Corey 44:43

maybe it wasn't even an intentionally set trap but they've they've really trapped themselves carter you got your hand end up yeah

Carter 44:49

yeah i mean that's not as big as as i said is also the title of cory sex tape but i'm pumped

Carter 44:59

okay thank you all right yeah

Carter 45:02

that's all i had okay

Corey 45:03

okay oh excellent oh good oh okay that's the title of your sex tape nice

Corey 45:10

way to go me oh

Carter 45:12

oh well done cory hey carter can't keep up with you yeah

Carter 45:15

yeah both of both of you

Zain 45:19

both of you on this one negative ads negative ads yes

Zain 45:25

to me about the guardrails on them contrast

Carter 45:28

contrast only for a little while uh so when we say negative ads generally speaking there are two types of negative ads uh negative pure

Carter 45:36

pure negative and then contrast and

Carter 45:38

and so a contrast ad is i'm good at this and he's not good at this um whereas a negative ad is this guy sucks i would be doing mostly contrast so that joe biden's positives are worked up at the same time as uh donald trump's negatives cory

Zain 45:55

cory guardrails on on negative ads what are they for you i

Zain 45:58

i don't have them yeah

Zain 46:01

god is is there any is there any and before we get to the tactics is there any opportunity you guys see here for the democrats like they were looking for a bit of like a reset button this one's kind of given to them in some ways probably Probably with a, you know, a bit of liability associated with it, like they get knocked down, maybe elections over for them, but they get a reset. Yay. Right? What does that mean, Carter, for you? Is there any opportunity that the Democrats could be seeing here to say, you know what, we do get to etch-a-sketch our ad creative, we do get to present a new argument, we do get to maybe present a different tone. I know Corey's talking about credibility and what that might mean for them in terms of what they've been saying for the past number of months, if not years. But they have a reset opportunity now.

Zain 46:46

Is it one in your mind?

Carter 46:47

It's a reset opportunity that the likes of which no one's ever seen before. I think right now they're on the verge of an electoral catastrophe. You know, not quite Ronald Reagan style, but not not like Ronald Reagan style either. Like, you know, what's the reset opportunity? You know, trying

Carter 47:09

trying to figure out how to win. You know, Corey's idea of, you know, turning oneself into a bonfire isn't going to work. But I'm not sure that my idea is going to work either, because I don't think, you know, the very first thing that we said when we came on is it looks like Trump's going to win. He was going to win before. This isn't exactly the most in-depth and nuanced, you know, analysis we've ever done. He was up by five points across most of the swing states.

Carter 47:42

This thing was basically over before, and now it's really fucking over. So what's the

Carter 47:48

the reset button for the Democrats?

Carter 47:51

Democrats? I mean, fuck, I don't know.

Zain 47:57

Corey, give me, go ahead, jump on, and then I was going to ask you for one final thing for the Democrats. Right.

Corey 48:02

So let's just say we all agree. And I'm not 100% sure this is a given, but let's just say we all agree that the Democrats are going to lose the presidency, right?

Corey 48:13

Then, presumably, what you want to do is make sure that you've got as strong a showing in the House and Senate as possible.

Corey 48:18

Why would you not want Joe Biden to go down in a blaze of glory talking about what a threat Donald Trump was, you know, both to the economy, sure, you know, right to choose, sure, but also democracy, so that people feel like, well,

Corey 48:36

maybe we better have some guardrails on Mr. Donald J. Trump here. Maybe we do need a Democratic senator. Maybe we need a Democratic representative.

Corey 48:43

Why wouldn't that still be good strategy? strategy

Carter 48:46

i'm dying actually to know what this does to the down ballot polling yeah

Corey 48:51

yeah yeah well no soon the guy could be up 15 points next week he'll get it's not gonna be 15 it's gonna be six but this is like 15 this

Corey 49:00

this plus a convention bounce he could be up 15 points there

Carter 49:04

there was no convention bounce coming carter

Zain 49:06

carter give me one golden democratic tactic if they if they called the phone of one one Stephen Carter, and they said, listen, this is the hole we're in. And we're talking the big leagues. But we're calling you, Stephen.

Zain 49:19

We want one golden tactic. What should it be that we should try? It doesn't have to be the silver bullet. That's why it's golden. We like that it's gold. We don't want it to be the be all end all. We don't want it to win the presidency. But something that is a net positive for us. What would you suggest we do?

Zain 49:37

What is your tactic tactic you're suggesting to the democrats cocaine

Carter 49:41

cocaine joe i mean keep in mind that okay interesting

Carter 49:47

the week before it was naming trump as his vice president i mean it's like a character

Zain 49:52

character he does like a like a no

Carter 49:54

no no he does coke and we hope for the best that that's like

Corey 50:00

like at his age i'd worry about his heart a lot i just know

Carter 50:03

know but that could be a win like i'm not like joe biden dies this whole thing turns right around turns right around you're saying

Zain 50:10

saying if biden actually dies if he actually does you think the balance goes to the democrats that

Carter 50:16

that would be fucking i mean why

Carter 50:18

why not at this stage well

Corey 50:19

well that actually might happen yeah you

Carter 50:22

you know why not wait does

Zain 50:23

does the political bath check out that if biden dies the balance actually comes to the democrats it

Carter 50:28

very easily could oh

Zain 50:30

oh interesting yeah that's really interesting depends

Carter 50:33

depends on how he jesus christ

Carter 50:34

if he dies like elvis then i don't think it's gonna work you're

Zain 50:38

you're not gonna hear fucking van jones talking about this okay he's busy being part of mega today okay

Zain 50:43

he's not plotting joe biden's death to get the balance plotting

Carter 50:47

plotting we're just simply saying that this you know what would be the the magic bullet as they say there

Zain 50:56

cory do you want to try to top that i

Corey 50:58

i mean i was really wondering at the start whether this should be a public or a patreon on episode and i gotta tell you trust me

Zain 51:05

fine on the legal i've got a pdf it's fine it's fine it covers us all right let's move on to our final segment steven carter over under in our lightning round carter let me ask you this yeah

Zain 51:15

i've heard you say it once i've heard you say twice but i also want to give you an opportunity to change your mind i

Zain 51:21

is it over it's

Carter 51:24

it's over joe biden is losing this election the same way that jeb bush lost his election this

Carter 51:30

this is over as predicted

Zain 51:31

predicted by you i

Carter 51:33

i know i didn't predict that because well yeah okay

Zain 51:38

this is different this is different this is just a little bit different yeah corey it it it seems premature it's july but events man is it over i

Corey 51:48

don't think it's over i actually think that my instant reaction was it was over yesterday you asked what my instant reaction for sure my

Corey 51:56

my reaction today is less that it's over for a couple of reasons it's

Corey 52:00

probably over let me just say it's probably over but there's a few things that give me maybe

Corey 52:06

maybe some some hope that it's not first and foremost as we get more details of the specifics of the shooting i think it looks less and less like the democrats have reasons to be twisting themselves in knots like this we obviously don't know yet we've got to wait we got to see uh but that's a possibility there the other is i am reminded how short americans attention spans are they

Corey 52:27

just forget they forget so quickly we've got over 100 days to this election there is a real possibility that people

Corey 52:34

people are going to say in late october oh yeah remember oh i totally forgot donald trump got shot at fuck that was weird right because

Corey 52:43

because that's just america you

Corey 52:44

you know they they have the ability do you think this is

Zain 52:46

is gonna this is gonna be like as quickly um

Corey 52:49

um moved on from not as quickly but i i gotta tell you been

Corey 52:55

been some pretty awful american school shootings that i think a week later you've got to remind people that existed right yeah

Corey 53:02

and and so there is kind of this just like what's next feeling to american politics that's only gotten worse with time so there's a real possibility of that too and so those two things i think in particular are the ones that make me think well maybe let's not let's not call it too soon between short attention spans and between not having all of the details let's just wait and see where everything is here but certainly i think if the democrats just abandon entirely their strategy then

Carter 53:30

strategy that was failing

Corey 53:33

yeah but again it's not so much that i think that it was net i think they could have pivoted layered things in change things but to sort of publicly and aggressively and intentionally say we no longer think or

Corey 53:45

we seem to act in a way that makes it look like we no longer think donald trump's a threat to democracy is so a

Corey 53:52

a bad for democracy but be bad for their credibility just really bad

Carter 53:57

should never have been the message anyways the

Carter 54:00

the message should have been donald trump is bad for you tell

Zain 54:04

tell me this carter donald trump will be giving his acceptance speech at the republican and national convention this week over under on three

Zain 54:15

number of minutes his initial standing ovation and applause is going to be oh it's

Carter 54:23

it's gonna be nine it's gonna be nine oh

Zain 54:27

oh you're gonna you're gonna actually go out and give me a number yeah

Corey 54:32

three feels like a really really long time i'm gonna say it's under because three Three actually feels unreal long when you're actually in a speech.

Corey 54:41

Yeah, Carter, nine is insanity.

Carter 54:43

Yeah, you know what, though?

Carter 54:45

I'm that kind of guy.

Carter 54:46

You're that kind of guy. I believe in the Republicans at the convention. You believe in them? I believe that they're nuts. Just

Zain 54:51

Just to get out. Okay. Corey, if we were doing a word cloud of Donald Trump's convention speech, what would be the word, what will be the word that

Zain 55:01

that occupies the center of that word cloud, the biggest word the most used word from donald trump from his rnc speech uh this week what's the word that captures the middle of the word cloud they're

Corey 55:14

they're out of their mind if it's not fight you

Corey 55:16

you know i i'm gonna fight for you i'm gonna fight for this country i'm gonna fight for its place in the state in the world like if that's not the frame through which they do all of this and

Corey 55:26

and if there's not like just like big fight again

Corey 55:29

again like i think he shouldn't be the unity guy and he should push his advantage so maybe that's coloring me a bit but i think that that's what i would imagine

Zain 55:37

carter cory's saying it's fight what is stephen carter's predicted word cloud for donald trump what's that word in the middle car

Carter 55:43

car is so simplistic it's going to be trump

Corey 55:51

it's going to be

Corey 55:51

mckinley what if his whole thing is talking about mckinley and that no

Carter 55:55

no one remembers mckinley what

Corey 55:56

what if it's grant hill and

Zain 55:58

and he just wants to talk about tbusa to say basketball like

Zain 56:01

like grand hill not good sad never won a championship oh

Zain 56:06

god not good grand hill very bad hey carter final question for you okay this is this would be the dominant political theme if we were talking about u.s politics this week i mean there was if this was normal times the the big this would be the leading topic which would be who the fuck is trump going to select as his vice president we would spend time on that we would talk to the candidates what what that means, what states he would get, all those sort of things. How would it screw over Biden? Stephen Carter, we just leave it for the last question in the lightning round. Who will Donald Trump name this week as his vice presidential pick?

Carter 56:37

Oh, I think that it's got to be the least qualified person available, which means it's going to be J.D. Vance.

Corey 56:44

Corey, who's it going to be?

Corey 56:46

It's going to be Joe Biden. It's a unity ticket.

Zain 56:50

With that, we'll keep fighting. That's a wrap on episode 815 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Belger. With me as always, Stephen Carter. Corey Hogan, and we'll see you next time.

Transcript