Episode 1082: Topline Brain

Zain 0:02

This is a strategist episode 1082. My name is Zain Velji with me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter, I'm getting a lot of a lot of finger pointing. Oh, man, you guys have entered middle age, haven't you? With a lot of these finger guns, seeing a lot of finger guns being pointed at me. Corey, you were struggling to count to the number three, or you were beyond the number three, beyond the number, I can count to the number three, just

Corey 0:22

just fine. It's the numbers beyond. Yeah,

Zain 0:24

Yeah, let's do this very quickly. Which fingers

Corey 0:27

Corey, to count up to three, I would start with my thumb. then i would use my thumb and my index for two yeah then i would use thumb index and middle finger for three carter how do you do it how do you kind of i do

Carter 0:37

do it like everybody else does index middle and ring that's

Zain 0:42

that's crazy and that's just such

Corey 0:44

such an awkward feeling

Zain 0:45

feeling hold on index middle ring so the the middle three yeah yeah like this well see i start i go pinky yeah the see i can

Corey 0:52

get ring finger pinky

Zain 0:54

get behind pinky ring

Corey 0:54

ring middle that's how you do it that's how you do That actually doesn't even... Listen, I'm going to say something here, Zane. You go end to end. Your way makes more sense than my way, because you can get to four more easily going pinky, ring, middle. That's true. What

Zain 1:07

It's basically impossible to

Corey 1:09

to go four. You can't do a ring

Corey 1:10

You can't do a pinky. Like,

Carter 1:11

Like, you just ignore the ring finger, Corey? Is that what you're doing? Okay,

Carter 1:14

hold on. With your three,

Zain 1:15

three, hold on, hold on. It's hard to do. It's

Carter 1:17

It's not. Okay, you're describing things as being hard. Like, are you using the right word? Index, middle.

Zain 1:22

Are you? you in

Zain 1:23

in index middle ring figure is what you do carter right yeah

Zain 1:28

yeah that's wrong um

Carter 1:29

cory anything you're wrong

Zain 1:30

wrong yeah okay perfect um cory and i are our writer

Carter 1:33

people are really upset that we're just kind of doing a inglorious bastards you

Corey 1:36

you know this show has really gone uh downhill since the writer's strike began and we lost the strategist writer's room yeah

Zain 1:42

yeah yeah we have lost the writer's room um the writer is gone and he's making it 12 hours a day um

Carter 1:49

um isn't there also

Carter 1:50

strike on right now? Shouldn't we also be on strike?

Zain 1:53

That's true, there is. Okay,

Zain 1:56

go ahead. Do you know how to go on strike, Carter? No.

Zain 1:58

You seem like a scab that would kind of cross the table. You have that vibe.

Zain 2:03

You generally have that vibe. You do have some scab energy, for sure. Yeah, you do bring some scab energy.

Carter 2:07

energy. That's really hurtful. Very

Carter 2:09

Is it hurtful? I

Carter 2:11

I do a lot of work

Carter 2:12

with unions and stuff, and it's really upsetting that you'd think that I'm a scab type.

Carter 2:17

It's really upsetting. setting i'm

Carter 2:18

i stand with my energy

Carter 2:20

stand with my collective brothers and sisters right

Carter 2:25

right that's what i do okay

Corey 2:26

sounds like i didn't

Corey 2:28

didn't really believe it when you said yeah well

Carter 2:31

feeling a lot of passion the way you said it i'm not feeling a lot of yeah the

Zain 2:34

the way you said it was more supremacist cult versus union you had that energy slightly

Carter 2:40

slightly different i saw your

Zain 2:42

could have been a little bit more positive i

Carter 2:43

i saw friend dresser do her speech for for the Screen Actors Guild. And

Carter 2:46

And I got to be honest with you, she talked about labor and I was like, yeah, I'm not feeling it the same way as I am with like the carpenters, the, you know, the firefighters or any of these, you know, real unions with real members. But, you

Corey 3:02

Like this is the

Corey 3:04

the scab energy we're talking about. This is the scab energy we're talking

Zain 3:06

talking about. Going after

Zain 3:07

after other people within the labor community. Yeah. I mean, this is exactly what we're talking about. um well now

Carter 3:14

now i feel bad so thanks a lot yeah

Carter 3:17

yeah thanks guys i don't know why

Zain 3:19

carpenters union does anything other than just constant jesus related content i mean number one carpenter of all time okay what

Corey 3:28

what is this first four minutes

Carter 3:31

me i'm giving them some free advice let me blow your mind okay you want me to blow your mind if

Zain 3:36

if you're the carpenters union most of Why is everything not like sexy cut Jesus shit all

Zain 3:41

all the time? I'm just saying. Because

Carter 3:42

Because most of the carpenters are actually scaffolders.

Zain 3:47

Well, Jesus did a bit of scaffolding. Oh, shit.

Carter 3:50

Yeah. So they're not even, you know, I mean, I don't know what to say. I don't know how to explain it any more than that.

Zain 3:57

that. My point still holds. Speaking of shirts,

Zain 4:01

shirts, let's move on to our first segment. No shirt, no shoes, no selfie. Well, unless you're in Daniel Smith's world, Corey, Daniel Smith was caught, if you can call it that. I'm going to put it in air quotes because I want to I would. Yeah. Was she busted, Corey, for taking a photo during the Calgary Stampede where politicians of every and any political stripe, if they have a fan base or if they are notable, are probably taking dozens, if not hundreds of pictures. Fair to say she

Zain 4:30

she was seen in a picture, as was Pierre Poglia. But we'll start with a conversation with Danielle Smith, with the gentleman who had a very bright green shirt that was talking about straight pride. Corey, before I get into her response, et cetera, was this a charge that we can fairly wage against Danielle Smith? So maybe let's take off any sort of, you know, let's remove the jersey collar from her if this was something on the other side. But is this a fair charge against Daniel Smith? And then we'll get into the cleanup and her attempts on that, which I think are more interesting to me. Right.

Corey 5:05

Right. So on the selfies, I was talking to a politician last week, and she was telling me that what we really missed in our Stampede episode is how selfies have changed the game. It's just like selfie after selfie after selfie, and you don't get these conversations you used to because they're interrupted every 60 seconds by somebody asking for a selfie.

Corey 5:24

And so there is that kind of perpetual effort and that perpetual effort when you're also trying to use brainpower on other things. It's, you know, you can create a scenario if you really want to stretch that, you know, that, yeah, you didn't see what was on the shirt. And I buy that Danielle Smith did not see what was on the shirt, right? You do buy that. I do not buy that her staff did not see what was on the shirt. And the mental exercise I want our listeners to go through through here is do you what do you think the odds are of the selfie being snapped if that neon green shirt with large black lettering had said boycott the tar sands hey

Corey 6:01

hey premier can i get a selfie zero

Corey 6:03

zero less than zero right like these people do have the ability to read and it is their job do we

Carter 6:11

we know this i mean have you seen your staff list yes

Corey 6:15

they have the ability to read and it is their job to keep their principle out of those kinds of situations and that shirt this is not a subtle shirt this is not like it was a light brown on dark brown squint you know creates this moray pattern that you have to look past in order to see the words this was about as as

Corey 6:34

as in your face gaudy you know color contrast look at me as humanly possible and there is no way that that the people around Danielle Smith couldn't

Corey 6:45

couldn't have seen that literally from across the room, the way it was designed. Carter,

Zain 6:49

Carter, Light Brown and Dark Brown, my wrestling name, of course. Was this a fair charge?

Zain 6:56

There are people online. There are people in the political opposition saying, the fuck, Danielle Smith. Is it a fair charge to say, how did you not see this, Premier? What do you think, Carter?

Carter 7:07

Yeah, I mean, Rachel Notley got her picture taken at a protest one time. And the right keep throwing that thing up like she was, you know, installing bombs on pipelines. You know, like it was it.

Carter 7:20

Of course, it's OK to talk about. Of course, it's OK to point this out because it's hypocritical. I mean, on the other hand, it doesn't going to do anything. It's not like this is the thing that's finally going to change, you know, the right wing's mind about Danielle Smith. You know, the left will get themselves all worked up into a tither. there. And the right will make excuses for it. And nothing will change because there is no sin that Danielle Smith can commit that isn't going to be justified by her followers. And there's nothing that she can do that isn't going to be attacked by the left, by the people who hate her. So, you

Carter 7:56

you know, I think it was bad, but I don't think it's going to have impact.

Zain 8:00

Well, I'll talk about that in a second in terms of what we mean by impact. But Carter, Talk to me about the staff point. If you were chief of staff to the premier, would you have come back to a staff meeting later that evening or that week and said, fucking guys, you missed it? Or is that, in your experience, something that is easy to miss? Tell me, give me your take on Corey's point. Someone

Carter 8:20

Someone posted a photograph, and I think it was in the Discord, of Joe Clark walking at the Calgary Stampede in 2000. Maybe it was 2001, but I was staffing him on that. And they were teasing me online. They were like, you're not even in the photo. And I'm like, if I was in the photo, I would have failed to do my job, and I would have had my ass kicked. and the same thing happens here whoever was doing their job did not do their job and uh you know it's a simple job it's not complicated to cory's point it's look at the t-shirts and see if there's anything that's going to cause your boss any troubles i mean um there's all kinds of people who show up with with with many different things um that they want signed or they want to take a picture with you or you know if a person unfurled a flag would you allow that to happen staffers are are trained for all of these things staff and if they're not trained then they're not staffed and they're just some volunteer who's standing beside you um but you know if you're you know you should be trained so that when someone comes up to you with a uh free palestine banner uh or you know i mean there's there are hundreds of issues right now you could be wearing a pro-russia t-shirt or a pro-ukraine even a pro-ukraine t-shirt someone should be thinking about very strongly i'm pro pro ukraine i think that that would be okay but i'm not sure that i i'm not sure that you necessarily want examples you

Corey 9:43

let you know oh yeah

Corey 9:44

yeah i was feeling the exact same thing yeah like

Zain 9:48

like i would probably show with a pro ukraine plus a yasser arafat scarf i think you're

Carter 9:54

you're gonna run into some problem no i don't think so this is why i win and you lose this is it i'm just trying to say um

Carter 10:00

um anyways i mean why'd you lose why'd you don't have a point point of view that's good middle

Zain 10:05

middle ages hit you well i'm doing really good just choose i'm

Carter 10:08

i'm pretty tired you're killing pretty tired i went for a long bike ride that's all i have to say too

Zain 10:12

hey cory talk to me about this you know is this one of the reasons that that um a proper selfie line i say proper a proper properly staffed selfie line usually has a staffer taking the photos have you seen that become more and more of

Zain 10:26

of the case like if

Corey 10:27

give me your phone give me I'll do it much faster. And you know, there's Justin Trudeau.

Corey 10:32

Trudeau. I remember he was kind of at the start of the politician selfie craze, right? Back in 2015, maybe even a little earlier than that. And one of the things that really struck me about his particular technique at that particular moment was he, this was before he was prime minister, I'm sure it's evolved since then, but he didn't let people even fumble with their phone. He would grab their phone and do it himself. itself. And part of the reason he did this is he does literally hundreds of these, thousands of these, and he's just much faster and he can get the shot much better. And there's not that fumbling and there's not that time. So, you know, there's also like an economy of scale thing to what you're talking about, right? You get someone else to take the photo, you move on, it's just much faster. It's the right shot the first time, boom, you get to get out of there. And generally speaking, speaking at an event like this even if

Corey 11:22

if they're not the one taking the picture there's often if you're the leader of photographer with you taking

Corey 11:27

taking photos of all of this who has an eye on the composition of the shot and what's in it and well it might not necessarily be their job like they're going to see that too and they're going to talk to the other staffers and be like hey man there's this guy in this shirt just fyi bringing it for you point i want to underline here is there are people whose job it is to look at things you know above and beyond even the staffers and And there is more than one person with a premier, with a leader of a party, as Pierre Poliev was like, they don't go there with like one, one extra random folk with them, right? And so, so clearly, in my opinion, there was a staff failing, and it's pretty impossible for me to believe that staff didn't see it, like they made a judgment call, and it was the wrong one, I think is pretty clear. but I want to be clear on the

Corey 12:16

the balance of evidence in front of us including the color of the shirt the text I think it's pretty likely that the leaders also saw the shirt right and decided they were just not going to deal with it I don't want anyone to misunderstand like this is a total pass I'm just saying leaders get busy leaders turn around leaders are maybe too close even to zoom out and see the shirt I

Corey 12:36

I can I can create a scenario in my mind where the leader didn't see it, I can create no scenario in my mind where the staff did not see it.

Zain 12:43

Carter, let's play a bit of improv. Let's put ourselves in this situation.

Zain 12:46

I want you to be in the situation of a staffer. You're seeing this line. This person is not 20 people deep into the line. They're coming up next. Okay? They're the next person to approach. You spot them. Yeah.

Zain 12:58

Take on the tail from here. How are you doing this tactfully so you're not inflaming the situation? This person has not approached the leader yet. So guys, work on this. I

Zain 13:08

to do this too.

Zain 13:08

Yeah, help me on this, and then I want to get to the leader. Suppose the staffer misses it, and then it goes to the leader. So we'll use that scenario a second. So Carter, jump in this first, and then Corey there after. Yeah,

Carter 13:17

Yeah, if I was a staffer, I'd say, you know what? We're not letting people take pictures with slogans and such. What I'd like to do is get you to reverse your T-shirt, and we'll take the picture. So if we can just get you to turn out your T-shirt, and we can take the photo from you, that'd be great.

Zain 13:35

So you're not rejecting this person to get the photo? Pardon

Carter 13:37

Pardon me? And until you do, we're not going to give you the photo.

Corey 13:42

respectfully, I mean, that's basically perfect. You know, I, I think if they got aggressive, if they went to the next step and they're like, Oh, what? You can't have opinions. Now you disagree with this shirt. I would say, listen, my friend, I think, you know, it's a fairly provocative statement, but it's not even about the statement. It's about, we're not doing this today. We're not putting words that have statements next to the leader. That's just not something we do. It's not about your statement. It's about all statements. So if you reverse your shirt, happy to take the photo uh but you know we're not we're not taking the photo otherwise okay

Corey 14:11

so that's that's how you would deal with it as a staff

Zain 14:12

staff yeah i mean it could escalate from there editorialize anything yeah

Carter 14:16

if it keep keep going on the escalation if it escalates from there and some and like you know so he says well you know i i'm a member of this party i get i get to take a picture with the leader um i mean you're you're trying to stifle my speech this is a free speech party um then you just say no no no i think you're misunderstanding i'm not asking you not to to wear that t-shirt i'm asking you not to take a picture with the leader with that t-shirt that's not about speech that's not about your speech that's about our speech and so our speech says that we don't want to take that picture today i'm not saying we don't agree with you or disagree with you i'm saying we're not going to take that picture today so you can either take it off turn

Carter 14:50

turn it inside out get a different photo or different picture i don't even care but we're not playing these games you

Corey 14:56

see you know why i wouldn't do what steven said there you mean this last last escalation

Corey 15:00

is well like i think where you know you move to this place of total neutrality it's why in mind i'm like look i think you know that shirt is that is that is pretty confrontational that's not exactly you know and so i'm being critical of the shirt but not necessarily getting into the content of the message there because you don't want a scenario where a if there's bystanders or b if they get mad and escalate further and say like they didn't even have a problem with the shirt they just don't have the guts to stand next to me with the shirt or

Zain 15:24

or if someone pulls out a phone and starts recording the conversation another thing

Corey 15:28

thing like you've got got to start

Corey 15:29

start thinking about how this might look across the board in the era of perpetual video so as a staffer you need to be firm like you're polite and you say listen we understand that you have strong opinions uh but this is just not happening um if you want to reverse the shirt we're happy to have the photo with you maybe it wouldn't even say have the photo it's like we will have the photo with you but like that's not a message that you know is

Carter 15:50

going and then it's going to go one step further too and the next step is that they're going to say they're going to then go off to the side they're going to take the picture and they're going to say danielle

Carter 15:58

danielle smith wouldn't take a picture with me in this t-shirt what the fuck is wrong with her this is what can you know she's trying to curtail my freedom of speech um she's no better than the ndp that's

Carter 16:09

that's fine 100 right that's fine

Corey 16:11

fine and that's fine let

Carter 16:12

let it go by

Corey 16:13

by the way if you're the premier the minute there's like a voice raising in this you're walking the sheriffs are right fucking there yeah yeah like

Corey 16:20

like so it's a little bit different if you're a party leader around with staff or you're a premier around with a security detail yeah

Zain 16:26

well cory uh take this on in their other scenario the staffer misses it this person gets to the premier he or she notices it what

Zain 16:34

what is what does the principal do in this situation what

Zain 16:37

does tact look like for them right well so

Corey 16:42

that's a tough one right like it's the right thing to do which is it's not the right thing it's not actually

Carter 16:46

actually that is this is

Carter 16:48

yeah go ahead you do your right like i

Corey 16:50

i want to hear your version but i think you you you you uh look and you say hey listen you know like i i think you would just essentially jump to that second one of mine and say listen my friend uh we're not doing photos with uh with slogans there um i

Carter 17:04

i wouldn't even do that right there i'd have what do you think i'd have the principal i'd have the principal say to the staffer matt matt

Carter 17:10

matt can you talk to this fellow for a bit and

Carter 17:12

and that would be it i

Carter 17:14

i wouldn't even say why i love i just say mac can you talk this fellow for a bit and

Carter 17:19

then i turn and i have my picture that's good also

Corey 17:22

have like signals yeah there should be a way for the premier to to beckon staff without uh without drawing attention to the particular yeah

Carter 17:31

there should be a body that's close enough to understand what those signals are i mean it's interesting i was talking to some mlas this week because of course you run into a gajillion mlas and it's interesting to me how few of them have actually been trained in this you know they don't actually know what they would do if if someone walked up to them with this type of t-shirt or someone walked up to them with something offensive because you know there's a gajillion t-shirts out there there's a gajillion different things you can buy on etsy or etsy's a thing right i didn't just make that up yeah

Carter 17:59

okay but at least it's

Zain 18:00

it's your point yes

Carter 18:01

so you you know anybody who shows up with these things i personally doubt it was from etsy but yes i thought it was from etsy you didn't think it was from etsy there's

Carter 18:08

there's so many crafty people there's You're so creative.

Zain 18:13

Jesus. Carter, question for you.

Zain 18:15

So your first answer, when I asked you about the political damage here, you said, eh, not going to be long lasting, right? Am I putting words in your mouth by saying that? No, that's absolutely right.

Zain 18:25

Is there any thought

Zain 18:27

thought in your mind where if you're the principal, you see it going on, you say, you know what? what, maybe the most strategically optimal thing for me is to take this fucking photo and hope that no one sees it, or you just do cleanup on the back end and I'll take that hit on the back end rather than trying to make a moment of something very unpredictable right now. Is there any world where you could justify that? Corey,

Carter 18:47

Corey, do you mind if I speak for both of us? Is that okay? I'm just going to do this for now. Here's what I'm going to do. I mean, the problem with Corey and I- So price your

Zain 18:53

your track record today. No, the problem with Corey and I being so

Carter 18:55

so fucking smart and so good at this is people think that we're always playing three-dimensional, four-dimensional chess and sometimes you're just not right there is no upside to doing this there is only downside you know it's not like we had to go get the bigot class i get that um so you know there is there is no way that pierre pauliev and daniel smith looked at this uh and said ah no

Carter 19:20

no no sense in taking no no no i'm done you know no

Zain 19:23

no i i'm not i'm not suggesting they're playing playing rapid three-dimensional chess yeah what

Zain 19:29

what i was saying is being like fuck it let's just go with the picture hopefully it doesn't become a thing no maybe that's the best way to deal with it that's

Corey 19:35

that's crazy yeah well honestly i so that in my opinion is actually not an implausible scenario i think it's a possibility it would not speak well of either of them uh i think from like kind of like a core like hey confront the hard issues and

Corey 19:50

and as steven has well and steven's demonstrated there's ways to do it without turning it into a scene like i i love the staffer one i love the idea that you just say hey uh matt come over here can you talk to this fellow for a bit and you move on with your life that's fantastic advice and that's a really good system um but yeah i mean people are people and sometimes you sit there and you do that well do i want to make this a thing do i want to confront this or do i just assume this will become nothing down the road if i just if I move on with my day.

Corey 20:19

Again, wouldn't necessarily speak super well to them. I think one of the challenges that Danielle Smith has is there is kind of a current of conversation around her judgment. And so for her, while I don't know that it will have big lasting public effect, you don't want to be piling up for

Corey 20:36

for no reason, these calls against your judgment, which, you know, was already looming out there. So, you know, I agree with Stephen, but I disagree. Like, I don't think it's going to change any big narratives. I

Corey 20:48

I just don't think you can be using currency so freely like that. This is already something people worry about you, and you're giving them just one more thing on the list when six months from now they're listing off all of the things that Daniel Smith did that showed poor judgment. Carter, does it hurt her more than it hurts Pierre?

Carter 21:04

Oh, I don't think so. I think it hurts Pierre more. Tell me why. It reinforces a negative that exists for Pierre. I think that this is part of who we think he is, and because he's it's already in his dna i don't think that this is something that the daniel smith would look at and say i agree with that right i i just don't i think that this is something that daniel smith might look at and say i'm you know i i i'm i'm for free speech i should allow this photo to go through um in kind of a political naivete type of fashion but i think that here yeah yeah

Carter 21:40

like what was his name the polysci prof that they you know always gets himself into trouble who no one remembers anymore yeah

Carter 21:46

yeah that guy flanagan

Carter 21:48

um you know but that's this you know making

Carter 21:51

making points because you can make points because it's you know you believe in this classroom exercise um you know if

Carter 22:00

if you can't do that if you're elected you can't do that if you're cbc tv um so that's the same type of thing that danielle still struggles with is what what should she do and when should she put her you know quote unquote ideals uh behind her so uh but i think that this is pierre i think pierre will

Carter 22:17

will own this in a way because i also think that when

Carter 22:20

when you know he's trying to appeal to a base that's not all crazy rednecks and uh danielle proved in the last last provincial election, that appealing to a base of crazy rednecks in Alberta doesn't seem like such a bad plan.

Carter 22:35

who does it harm more?

Corey 22:37

Yeah, well, I entirely agree it's Polyev, and for me, it's a lot simpler than that. Daniel Smith just had an election, right? That election just occurred. Pierre Polyev's election is in 2025, if the confidence agreement holds, and it's sooner if not and he's also playing for a population that is is much more moderate than the population in the province of alberta right and so those are the simple facts that he's got to confront it's both in content and in kind of relevancy slash urgency slash timing it's just worse for him so um that's the challenge that he has it also reinforces some views about pierre Polyev, as Stephen said, that, you know, our lingering doubts and anxieties people have out there in Canada about Pierre Polyev, who might even otherwise be predisposed to vote for him.

Zain 23:29

Carter, what do you think of the cleanup? Let's start with Danielle Smith. I didn't see it. I'm not going to be anyone's billboard. I'll ask my staff and my team to work harder, try harder next time.

Zain 23:39

That was the essence of it. I think

Carter 23:40

think that's totally fine for her.

Carter 23:43

She gets to put it behind I mean, I don't think it's going to carry with her very much. And she just needs to not do it again, which should be relatively straightforward if it was the issue that she says it was.

Zain 23:56

Corey, what do you think of the Polyev cleanup? You know, expanding on it, saying, you know, I don't stand for this, you know, straight pride message in this photo. I also didn't see it. And then he kind of talked about, you know, Canada should continue to resettle LGBTQ plus refugees from abroad. He talked about more policy issues, expanding on it, his party support, et cetera, et cetera, which also kind of brought into the fore some of his stances against same-sex marriage, et cetera, historically as an MP. What did you think of the Pierre cleanup on this?

Corey 24:26

Well, it wasn't bad, but the challenge with it is exactly what you just said at the end of the sentence there. His track record has not been stellar on LGBTQ2S plus sort of rights here. It just hasn't been. And you can say a lot of things about Danielle Smith, and certainly she does not have a perfect track record, but the broad strokes of it is she's a libertarian who takes a real live and let live approach to issues of this matter. matter pierre polliev though not not so much the same and you might even recall a couple of well it's geez how how time flies but in the leadership race where pierre polliev uh was dinged by some of his opponents for using the hashtag mgtow men going their own way you know this

Corey 25:11

this kind of like internet far

Corey 25:14

far right shit heel stuff kind of sticks to him a lot and uh and this This does seem to reinforce some anxiety, you know, some things that people already fear about Pierre Polyev, that his record, you know, the way he's kind of mired in cultures that are adjacent to that on the internet, that's

Corey 25:31

that's problematic for Pierre Polyev, for sure.

Zain 25:34

Carter, can I ask you a question? And really, just out of genuine curiosity, I want to get your take on it. The Danielle Smith photo, for those that haven't seen it, it's Danielle Smith in this individual. The Pierre Polyev photo is Pierre Polyev, this individual, and Pierre Polyev's wife. Yeah. What

Zain 25:50

What do you think that does to the message? Do you think that softens

Zain 25:55

softens the blow for him politically? Do you feel like it does? We've talked about political partners in the past, and I actually don't even have an answer in my head as I ask you this question. It's just pure, genuine curiosity. Does it do anything to have your partner standing beside you as this message is shared with a supporter or someone that attended one of your events to be charitable? So

Carter 26:16

So my initial reaction is I think it makes it worse. And that

Corey 26:20

that was mine, too, because it's like, are they the straight couple? Yeah,

Carter 26:23

Yeah, I mean, I think that because, you know, it's like, you know,

Carter 26:29

know, we both saw this T-shirt. We both thought it was fine. Right. And this kind of model of everything's

Carter 26:35

everything's OK. You know, it's not a big deal. It's not a big deal at all. My wife was there. We took a picture. um again it reinforces the stereo it reinforces the stereotypical view of pierre um and it also made it worse that danielle's photo danielle had it happen too right like because

Carter 26:54

because the fact that it happened to both of them the fact that pierre polyev's wife was there i just feel like it just kind of it it all adds up to worse not better and um i don't know i mean i don't think there's i i certainly don't think there's any softening zane i don't think that it softens the blow of this at all um it's like we're the prototypical stereotypical couple and you're now taking a picture with someone who thinks that you're the only deserving couple i just think that that's it's adding a whole level of ick to

Carter 27:29

to use cory's uh well-defined term thoughts

Corey 27:35

i think carter said something really interesting there which i hadn't thought much about but is is i think one of the points that we need to take

Corey 27:43

take a beat on here which is it is worse because it happened to both pierre polyev and danielle smith because it suggests something more broadly about the conservative movement like that it happened in both settings and that both groups like

Corey 27:57

like the idea that it would get through the filter once is improbable the idea it would would get through the filter twice starts to feel like conspiracy. And I don't literally mean that. I mean, it starts to feel like there's just something where people are saying, oh, that message, it's fine or fine enough that we would let it be next to a leader within the conservative movement. And I don't know that that's fair to the conservative movement. I really want to say that. But it's

Corey 28:20

it's certainly eyebrow raising that it occurred in both places. And there are bigger bigger narratives out there, not even in Canada, about, you know, right-wing populism and the way that there is now this really aggressive backlash against gay rights that seems to be occurring in the United States and increasingly here in Canada. And yeah, that's, you know, that's something that I think that's troubling for sure.

Zain 28:46

You know, Carter, from your perspective, if you're looking at this as the Polyev team, are the lessons on staffing exactly the same Or are they slightly different if you were to impose some lessons to them or some rules to them going forward, given his track record and frankly, the political map he may need to win? I'm not saying Daniel Smith can get away with this easier, but to Corey's point, she's just had an election. So in some ways, it's true, she can get away with this easier because she doesn't have to face the electorate. Are the lessons different for the Polyev team as they try to clean this sort of stuff up or not repeat mistakes like this going forward? presuming, and this is a big presumption, that this is a mistake. Yeah,

Carter 29:24

Yeah, I mean, I think that that's actually the whole point I was going to make. I mean, you're presuming that this was a mistake. I think that the lesson for Polyev is that he needs to make sure that he is staffed by people who think this is actually a mistake. My fear is that he was staffed by people who didn't think this was a mistake. They thought this was just fine. Keep in mind that Pierre Polyev is going to have a totally different staff load than Danielle Smith is, especially Danielle Smith, like, a month after she was was elected pierre's traveling with an entourage he's got people who who know what he should be doing he's got a a very big uh cohort of of people in calgary who are loyal to him who who will be there for him when he when he needs them and when he needed them they

Carter 30:07

they let this guy get a photograph and that's i think that that's the learning i

Carter 30:14

i think they know how to do staff work i

Carter 30:15

i think I think that the question will be, is

Carter 30:18

is everybody around us doing the right type of staff work?

Corey 30:24

Look, I think this is one of these elements we haven't brought in yet, but it's not as though the only players on the stage were the leader, the leader's staff, and this individual. There's a lot of other people there, and we've all been at events like this. When something like that's happening, people are like, hey, heads up. You see the guy in the neon green shirt over there at a cowboy wear event? That's going to stick out like a sore thumb. People are going to be mentioning these to the staffers and saying, hey, look, this

Corey 30:53

is occurring here. It's just like this all adds to the improbability of it all for me. Like there's no way in my opinion that the teams around these leaders did not see it. It's unlikely to me that the leaders can

Corey 31:05

get a total pass on this. But like I said, I'm willing to at least entertain that. But

Corey 31:10

But the notion that this was somehow a surprise to everybody who had the ability to stop it is nonsense.

Corey 31:16

nonsense. And Stephen's right. Like you've got to ask yourself some tough questions about your staff. Did they let it go because they thought it was okay? Is their judgment that broken? Is their politics that offside, the rest of the country, in the case of Pierre Poglia? These are the hard questions you need to be asking after a situation like this. And you've got to be asking them doubly so when it occurs for both leaders.

Zain 31:39

before I move on to our next segment,

Zain 31:43

does this undercut Pierre's aesthetic and stylistic rebrand in some way? yeah

Carter 31:48

yeah because it turns out that if you're the same person uh at this you know on a on the internal level it won't really matter how much of a rebrand you're doing at the skin level right like i think the rebrand is very interesting i think that the way he you know looks and feels is different but if he behaves the exact same way then you really do lose a lot of value out of going to all that effort to to put a rebrand in place so yeah i'd have to say that it does undermine it um because people are voting for the person and and on top of that this is the time you don't want people talking about this shit you want them like not you know wondering

Carter 32:27

wondering what kind of boots you're wearing like it's it's just it's a non it's a non-time and to have this as a distraction is It's just really

Zain 32:38

Corey, same to you. Undercut the rebrand

Corey 32:40

rebrand or not so much? No, I don't think so. Actually, he's got an interesting possibility. He can do the Shaggy defense at this point. Oh,

Zain 32:49

the way. He's coming out before I want to go. It's a 3 p.m. show for us elder millennials. It'll

Carter 32:55

Heather and I had to go for dinner tonight at 5.30. I understand. Getting out there early now. Yeah.

Zain 33:03

Swiss Shelly special. We're going to leave that segment there. Moving on to our next segment, the lesser of two less evils. Corey, over

Zain 33:10

over half the Canadian population wants Trudeau and Pauly ever placed as party leaders. In a new poll by Nanos Research, it indicates that while Pierre Pauly seems to have better cohesion within the conservative movement, 51% of Canadians say, yeah, you know what? I could probably do with someone that isn't him to lead the conservatives. It's not much better. In fact, it's worse for Justin Trudeau, where 53% of Canadians and respondents in this poll suggest that, yeah, he should be replaced. Did this surprise you, Corey? I know there's a bit of chatter amongst us around this. Let me start with just the pure elements of surprise before we get into the pure elements of strategy and democracy here, and frankly, opportunity, which is where I want to go.

Corey 33:50

I don't think it surprises me. There's two things. One is this general atmosphere of of negative partisanship that we're in where people define themselves almost in opposition to parties and leaders and so

Corey 34:03

so you have to assume that

Corey 34:05

that if you're the leader of a party that has the support of 40 of canadians as pierre polliev is that you're kind of like you're gonna have the majority of people saying you suck and that you should be replaced right and it's not as though there's a lot of people out there who are saying i hate the conservatives but i think pierre polliev have the best they can do. Like, it's just like, sky is falling, everybody's bad. You're seeing this reflected in a lot of Western democracies. Look at the negative numbers for any American leader, right? The more interesting part is Justin Trudeau's numbers being low with liberals. Yes. And that,

Corey 34:39

that, again, is not surprising because he's been leader for so long. Think about, you know, the most recent one would be the late Chrétien era. And there were a lot of liberals who thought that he should move aside and that Martin should become leader. And Martin had slowly been taking over the party apparatus. And that's just a reality that occurs as people. We've said this so many times in so many different contexts, but you don't get more popular in politics. You accumulate enemies, you accumulate bad decisions, you accumulate hurt feelings. And as a result, your popularity tends to decline. That's why we always talk about the first 100 days being so magical in a politician's life, because it's when they're their most popular. And that that means that's when they're the most powerful. And so after eight years, yeah, Justin Trudeau's not going to have everybody on side. So not surprising doesn't mean just because it's not surprising that it's not important that

Corey 35:32

that Justin Trudeau seems to be losing the Liberal Party, because if we want to carry that parallel of Chrétien Martin,

Corey 35:38

you know, there were some consequences to Chrétien losing that

Corey 35:41

that sort of moral authority of the base of the party.

Zain 35:44

Let's get to that in a second. I want Carter's reaction to the surprise element. Carter, was there any for you? No,

Carter 35:49

No, not really. I think that this type of poll forgets one, you know, would I like to see this person replaced? Yeah. Would I like a pony? Yeah, I would.

Carter 35:57

But you get to imagine this perfect leader, right, that's going to come in and solve all your problems and be everything to everybody. But that perfect leader doesn't exist. I mean, it would have been a far more interesting poll if they'd said, would you like to see Justin Trudeau replaced with Chrystia Freeland? Would you like to see him replaced by Mark Carney? Would you like to see him replaced by Corey Hogan? You know, because Corey's huge in the liberal world. You know, he's federal liberals. I mean, we

Carter 36:26

were invited to all of the conferences this year, all the conventions. We had to say no because, obviously, can't be everywhere. Right, Zane? Like, can't do it all.

Zain 36:36

Was there free flights and accommodations included?

Carter 36:38

Yeah, but they were on player airlines. headlines and uh we just couldn't so

Zain 36:42

so no is the answer we

Carter 36:42

we just couldn't get it off the ground no um so no

Carter 36:46

no i think that uh i think this is where we are i think you know 51 of people saying they don't like something who cares right it doesn't mean anything uh what i mean if 51 of liberals were saying yeah you know what i would prefer to see christian freeland or mark carney um then you

Carter 37:04

know i could see that uh that

Carter 37:06

that would be really damaging and that was i think the real damage of of the Kretchen, why am I forgetting his name? Yeah, it was an abstract. Yeah, it was a real person standing. Everyone knew who was next. And that made it more real and more damaging.

Zain 37:23

What were you going to talk about in terms of the cost of the Kretchen sort of final, you know, days and months of that chapter in the Liberal Party?

Corey 37:32

Well, no shock to people anywhere, but the Liberals spent an awful lot of energy fighting themselves. And

Corey 37:39

And they sort of lost the plot. And they started to believe that the rest of the country saw the liberals as two factions, when in fact, most of the country just saw the liberals as the liberals. And so, you had things like Martin essentially

Corey 37:54

essentially calling an inquiry into the actions of his own government, you know, the Goldberg inquiry and what was going to come out of that.

Corey 38:01

And look, you can make an argument, it was the ethical play, you can make all sorts of arguments on all sorts of things. But the simple calculation that was wrong by the Martinites was that they could leave all of the baggage with Gretchen and move on, and that somehow the party brand would, you know, proceed unencumbered. When you have the leader fighting with kind of the future leader faction, or this idea, and people are divided into camps, energy is expended internally that should be expended externally. And that's, that's kind of the simplest version The other thing is it can cause all sorts of problems. It can cause all sorts of, you know, lacks of authority that don't allow you to move as quickly or as nimbly because you start thinking about all of these calculations going elsewhere. And yeah,

Corey 38:49

Trudeau finds himself in the same boat, well,

Corey 38:51

well, I think that that will become the political story. But, you know, Carter makes an excellent point that right now it's against perfect leader. It's not against actual leaders.

Zain 39:02

Carter, talk to me about political opportunity here. That's what I wanted to really get into. You look at these numbers, you're someone sitting on the sidelines, you've got a top-line only brain, which means you can process things that are just top-line here. And you guys have said that there's additional things that- Top-line

Carter 39:16

-line only brain. Top-line only brain. Okay. Yeah,

Carter 39:19

good. That makes it more

Zain 39:21

more challenging. It's a syndrome. We've met people with that syndrome that have that challenge. Yes, very much. politics. So you're one of those folks, or you're someone who's always been sensing opportunity. Does this change anything for you? Does this present any unique opportunity for you on either side of the political spectrum? What do you think? I don't

Carter 39:37

don't think I think it's kind of an open secret that there are people sniffing around looking at the liberal leadership and, and and most of it is couched in. Well, when he when he makes his decision, he gets to make his decision when he wants to make his decision but when he makes his decision i think that it's good in the party's best interest that

Carter 39:56

that we're all ready that we're ready right and therefore you know i'm just out i'm talking to people i'm being a nice fella uh or a nice one you know woman here trying to just talk to people and make sure everybody's everybody's uh loving where the party's going i'm just getting the temperature from from from the peoples our peoples and i think that that type of leadership sniffing um will do nothing but go up as these types of polls occur um but i think there is a foundational difference between what occurred uh in the bad old days of the liberal party and what's occurring with this i think that this does have more of a when he's ready feel to it i don't have that um ralph klein push out 2012 or you know 2000 what time when 2005 right when he starts getting pushed out by his own crew um i don't feel that in the same way i think that this is uh this could be problematic but right now it just feels like everybody's gonna going to give the respect and the distance that's required for now. And that may change some point in the future, but that's not changing today. Does that make

Corey 41:13

Corey, do you disagree?

Corey 41:14

Well, I do, because it's not a light switch, is the thing. And it's not much of a leap. In fact, the biggest leap is sort of imagining a time after the leader. And as soon as people start start thinking like that. They start bringing thoughts in like, what kind of party do I want after the leader? Maybe I don't agree with the leader's actions in this particular case. Maybe I'm not going to work so hard to get the thing the leader wants. I'm going to get the thing that I want. And you see this gradual erosion of authority. And it always starts with, they've

Corey 41:43

they've got the right. They've earned it. They can do the thing they want to do. And it's such a quick trip down the road to, you know what? It's actually not their call. This is in the interest of the the party as a whole, and I'm going to do something different than what the leader wants right now. The moral authority that a leader requires to govern unfettered, it's

Corey 42:04

it's an ephemeral thing. It disappears the minute people can imagine it not being there. It's such an interesting thing, but it happens so much faster than you can appreciate. Carter,

Zain 42:14

Carter, I want your take on that.

Zain 42:15

And do you see any value in accelerating that if you're one of these people sniffing around? We're talking primarily on the liberal side of the ledger. Yeah. I'll get to the conservative side. But how do you accelerate the future visioning exercise that Corey has so articulately put on the table? Well, let

Carter 42:32

let me actually start with the conservatives, because the conservatives, you know, are replacing leaders at a pace where there's just going to be no one left at some point. And that's their pattern. That's where they've gone to. If someone loses an election, they're gone. There's no question. There's no discussion. You know, they may want to stay, but they're not going to get a second chance. That's the conservative way. Now, the liberals now are in a very different situation. They've had back to back minority governments, which is by some measure very, very good. You know, they've been able to hold on and keep their government. But by other measures, it's not particularly good. And I think that people are measuring up and they're looking and saying, will we actually win in whenever the next election is, which we may or may not control. And I think that there is a calculation being done by the prime minister's people that is saying the only way we win is if we, you know, the prime minister stays. The prime minister is has been our magic, magic ticket. He, you know, without him, where would we be? and there's there's a case to be made for that he's he's certainly um you know grabbed the the third place party and and and dragged them up into a

Carter 43:50

place of governing um

Carter 43:54

know i mean i think that it'll be very easy it's a very easy to cory's point which is right it is very easy to go from uh well we're just trying to protect the party we're just chatting with people there's nothing nothing to see here to yeah

Carter 44:08

yeah we're gunning for this guy now and it could happen very very fast and it could be very detrimental i'm very interested in what happens around christmas um christmas to me feels like the time when we might see this pressure go from uh uh

Carter 44:23

uh symbolic maybe or or kind of uh casual to to this

Carter 44:30

this is now happening the pressure's real and we're going to see whether whether or not this prime minister can hold it in a minority situation.

Zain 44:39

Same question to you, Corey, around like that future visioning exercise. How do you accelerate it?

Corey 44:45

How do you accelerate it? Well, you just have more conversations faster. And then the other natural accelerant that often occurs is when there's a conflict, a flashpoint in caucus. So I can't remember the context in which we were talking about the Suez crisis. I feel like it was with one of you. Maybe it was even on the podcast. But one of the things that I always think was fascinating about Suez Crisis is one

Corey 45:10

of the reasons it became such a crisis, to grossly simplify it, is the

Corey 45:15

the British still thought they were a superpower, right? And it took that crisis for everyone to realize, kind of not. Like the United States is the superpower now, and it's just like in a totally different world. And there's one superpower. And it just changed everything.

Corey 45:33

And I mentioned this because sometimes you can't, like, a crisis is in some ways like a calling of a vote, right?

Corey 45:40

right? It's where there's a presumed power that then gets tested in some way, shape, or form. And we saw this a hundred times with Jason Kenney, where, you know, there'd be this chatter, and does Jason Kenney actually have his caucus? And then there'd be a vote, and Jason Kenney would get that vote basically unanimously, minus like one or two people who'd be kicked out of the caucus. And the

Corey 46:00

thing about a crisis and why if you're looking for an accelerant, if people are actually feeling something that is not like real yet, if you trigger a crisis, and it doesn't need to be people thinking they're going to leave, it doesn't need to be anything so dramatic. It can be an internal caucus dispute where they say, we want this and the prime minister wants that. And the prime minister says, well, let's call the question in some way, shape or form, or you call the question in some way, shape or form. And then the votes are read, so to speak. And in this case, literally, and you realize, oh, the prime minister actually doesn't have unanimous support here. That accelerates things, right? Right. So like finding moments where what is presumed becomes real is another natural way to accelerate that kind of thing if you're looking to poke at it. But I'll tell you something, Zane, if it's not real, it's also a great way to show that it's not real. But

Carter 46:47

But this, you know, I'm sorry, Zane, I just want to add one thing to that. And that is that this this really defines the timeline that I was talking about with the with the December, January. And the reason is that the budget's going to be discussed at that point. And what kind of a budget is it going to look like? Because it's not like it's just gets dropped on caucus with, you know, hey,

Carter 47:09

hey, we were just thinking about this budget and this is the way it's going to go. There's there's so many rounds of planning and thinking and going. And, you

Carter 47:15

you know, this government has run deficits and it would be a very easy thing to do to say we've lost the direction of the of the, you know, the Liberal Party and being financially responsible, not financially conservative. conservative and and i don't think this is the type of budget that should be presented and all of a sudden that could could be a flashpoint especially given that it could be the one uh not necessarily heading into an election year but who knows right we we we

Carter 47:42

we know that the liberals don't necessarily control their own destiny but i think that that's why timing

Carter 47:47

timing wise uh christmas is and christmas is when everybody's talking to each other too like everybody's there and at the parties And, you

Carter 47:56

you know, this could be really, I think it's going to be an interesting time.

Zain 47:59

How convinced are you, Carter, of your earlier point that you made that Trudeau will not get pushed out, that this will be on his terms? Like, do you feel like that is one element that's locked in, in terms of his exit? Or are you saying, to Corey's point about how ephemeral moral authority is, that that also is ephemeral and can kind of like, you know, sink very quickly or kind of like lose a grasp on, on oh shit i may not get my own planned exit the way i want yeah

Carter 48:26

yeah i mean i talk to me about that that's kind of like you

Carter 48:29

you've got kids you can say to them you know like you're gonna make your own decision about this you're gonna make your own decision you know you can do it and you know and then they make the wrong decision and you're like yeah well we gave you that chance and now you don't have that decision making power anymore and i think that that could be the way that they view um

Carter 48:46

you know trudeau they're gonna give them until a certain point They're going to give him until a timeline, and

Carter 48:51

and that timeline could be this fall or this winter, or it could be a year from now, for all I know.

Carter 48:58

Can I ask you a question, Carter?

Zain 48:59

You may or may not have been part of these conversations, but you certainly have kind of heard historically around how caucuses deal with this. Do you feel like caucuses are giving him a timeline? Like, talk to me about that. What do you mean by they're giving him a timeline? It's not

Carter 49:12

not written down. It's not discussed.

Zain 49:13

discussed. No, no, no. But it's just

Carter 49:15

just kind of in the hallways, right? Right. In the hallways where people are talking about stuff. And believe me, they're always talking about stuff. There's always political intrigue because this is the game that we all play. And somewhere, you know, they're basically the tone of the conversation right now is, listen, guys, you know, like I've I've been a supporter of the prime minister from day one. But I'm concerned about the numbers. I mean, I know everybody's concerned about the numbers, but the numbers are really dragging

Carter 49:42

dragging us down. and uh

Carter 49:45

i think i think he can turn it around though i think he can turn it around and when well all we need him to do is turn it around before before the uh christmas break if he turns it around before the christmas break then uh you

Carter 49:55

you know i then my confidence is restored i mean i wouldn't even deny that i ever had a crisis of confidence um because you know that's the way i work but if he doesn't well

Carter 50:08

well i mean i think we have to we have to we have to be thinking mostly mostly of the Canadian people and our party. And at that point, well, I hope it doesn't come to this, but I think we'd have to take the gloves off.

Corey 50:20

You missed a step, which is like, well,

Corey 50:23

well, because the step you missed is like, well, I know he'd do the right thing if the numbers really turned against us in that situation. It's like, it's not even you saying it. It's just like, it'd be so obvious what he needs to do in that situation. And he's got our best interests. Always had

Carter 50:36

had our best interests. We

Corey 50:37

We all agree. He's the guy

Carter 50:39

We've never, you know, this is the guy who rebuilt the party. come on and

Zain 50:43

and he didn't do it for himself he did it for us he did it for everybody

Carter 50:46

everybody and he wouldn't want to go out he wouldn't want to go out like that that's not how he wants to go cory

Zain 50:50

cory do you agree with carter do you or do you do or do you feel like trudeau's exit is going to be on his terms regardless of how shaky and choppy the water's getting next uh

Corey 51:01

uh you know the funny thing is the less secure the confidence and supply deal looks the stronger just in trudeau's hand because Because nobody wants to throw their party into chaos at

Corey 51:12

at an inopportune time, right?

Corey 51:14

And Justin Trudeau has already said he's going to run in the next election in 2025. So he has

Corey 51:21

of established, well, of course, you're 100% correct on that. But he has sort of established that as kind of the current context. By the way, a bit of an aside, but a relevant one. This is, I think, an interesting phenomenon where leaders are like declaring and like with fanfare. And I will run in the next election, you

Corey 51:40

you know, as though that's not like sort of the given, but they sort of restate the obvious in a way that makes it like double obvious, I guess. But

Carter 51:47

But you know who has to do that? You know who has to restate the obvious?

Corey 51:51

Leaders who, it's called into question, right?

Corey 51:54

100%. But I think, yeah, I think realistically, with the threat of an election potentially happening if a deal falls, and him having already said that, it would be really tough to, quote unquote, move against Trudeau. I don't think that's happening. So I do think it is in some ways on his timeline. line that said we

Corey 52:14

we act as those these things are like one actor acts and gets what they want or another actor acts gets what they want yeah but the reality is there's this interplay you know and you know all of a sudden the prime minister's power is fettered and he's got more of a pain in the ass caucus and he's not enjoying the job as much and you know his numbers continue to go down and he can do it but he's gonna have to deal with the sniping of like the far left and the center of his party or whatnot and he just says you know what i'm

Corey 52:40

i'm good you know i'm gonna leave now while it's still my choice and then it is technically still their choice same but

Corey 52:46

but was it their choice you know so like these these things are not so black and white i guess is what i would say and that interplay is really you know that's the dynamics of caucus that you're always kind of watching it's

Zain 52:56

it's it's what cory hogan used to refer to as got quit yeah

Zain 53:00

that's right which is a a A phenomenon where

Zain 53:03

where companies quite often indicate that someone has left on their

Corey 53:10

their own accord. And we wish them the best. We wish them the best. On their future endeavors. But you've called it a got quit.

Corey 53:15

Yeah. They didn't get fired. They got quit. They got quit. They got quit. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Everyone gives a little, takes

Zain 53:19

takes a little. Was it their choice to get quit? Of course it was.

Zain 53:23

course it was, Corey. Hey, Carter, to your point. Conservatives. Pierre Pauliev, on the wrong side of that question as it relates to Canadians, 50-some some percent of them say, yeah, swap this guy out. On the right side of that question, as it relates to supporters of his party, 70 plus percent. Any blood in the water there? Or is it just fictitious blood that if you're opportunistic, you're trying to look for? If you're wanting to succeed, Pierre, what are you seeing based on the results of this? And as I referred to in the past, a top line break? I'm

Carter 53:51

I'm seeing that he's got one chance. He's got one chance to win this election. If he wins this election, everybody will be with him. We were were always with you, Pierre. We knew you're the guy. If he loses this election, I just don't see him having much. I mean, I think he'll be, you know, the next not leader of the Conservative Party.

Zain 54:15

Really, you think it's a one and done? Corey, same question to you as we wrap this out. Any opportunistic strategic value looking at the Polyev numbers here, where a majority of Canadians, not the majority of his party, but the majority of Canadians say, swap this guy out?

Corey 54:30

no again i think we're just in an environment where that's what you're going to see in polls you've got this negative partisanship and one of the dynamics at play in canada is you've got the liberals and you've got the ndp and we've always seen and well not always but for a decade now we've seen in polls really

Corey 54:47

really clear second choice support like first liberal second ndp but i'll flip that you know i'm willing to change my mind if i think it's advantageous And then you have the Conservatives on the other side.

Corey 54:57

Conservative voters don't have second choices. Liberal and NDP voters will not put Conservatives as second choice. Not universally, not

Corey 55:05

not universally, but these are the two blocks of Canadian politics. And so naturally, if you're the Conservative leader, you're going to have more people against you there. And it's probably more important that you have your party solid, especially if you're a Conservative. So I, you know, I actually don't think there's a ton of advantage there. And I definitely don't think that if you're poking from the outside and saying, hey, Pierre Polyev, majority of Canadians want him replaced.

Corey 55:31

Well, look, that's not a very good line for the liberals, because you'll say even more so for you, Justin Trudeau, like, like, you

Corey 55:38

know, a losing argument, but also, so

Corey 55:41

so what, you know, like, well, they just don't know him yet is such an easy rejoinder to that. When they get to know him, they're going to love him like we do. Look how much conservatives love him. They're the people who know him.

Carter 55:51

him. Yeah, I mean, wait till they see him without glasses.

Carter 55:54

that's going to shake shit up. They probably have never seen him with

Zain 55:57

They have no idea. Yeah, they have no idea that this is a new look, Carter. Oh. Yeah, they're going to love the new straight pride muscle shirts. We're going to leave that segment there. We're going to move it on to our final segment, our over, under, and our lightning round. Stephen Carter, we're going to talk about this when it happens, but we are hearing speculation speculation that Justin Trudeau is going to go with a cabinet shuffle. We don't know how big, we don't know how small, we don't know when it's going to happen. All the rumors are in the next 10 days prior to the August long weekend certainly is what many folks in the Ottawa circle are hearing. Carter, your

Zain 56:28

your chance to give Justin Trudeau a line of advice, what would it be heading into a cabinet shuffle? Given all the preconditions we've discussed right now and more, your advice to Justin Trudeau heading into a cabinet shuffle what would it be I

Carter 56:41

would probably say go big um you know I think that people you know Rachel Notley was kind of uh well known for kind of shying away from doing a significant cabinet shuffle in fact she didn't do a cabinet shuffle really at all and I think that that was one of the things that really really hurt her because cabinet shuffles give you an opportunity for ministers to walk away from previously held held positions. And there's a lot of previously held positions in a government that's been around for, what is it, nine years yet now or something like that, eight years? Coming on nine, coming on a long time. And I think that you do a big shuffle. I don't think you, you

Carter 57:23

you know, you don't have to keep your big pieces in place. Bigger shuffles are better for governments. They're not worse for governments at this stage.

Zain 57:33

Go big. Corey, same thing for you. And then I'm going going to come back to you both for a specific piece of advice so here's your top line chance and then i'll get to you on a specific cory top line advice yeah

Corey 57:44

yeah i know it's the lightning round but i want to unpack this a tiny bit the

Corey 57:48

the the risk of doing what steven said at this point when we're already talking about people saying hey like if there's changes blah blah blah you know maybe maybe we got to think about the future of the party is big

Corey 58:00

big shuffles can mean big feelings and And there can be people who are very upset that they did not get in when the doors were open so wide, different

Corey 58:09

different than if only a couple of people get upped, right? Like, well, only a few people made it in or whatnot. And also, if you perceive your portfolio to be lesser than it was, that can also cause hurt feelings. And that can really be one of the accelerants that we haven't talked about in terms of what can sow a leader's fate. So there's risk with that if you are already starting to lose control of your party in In any meaningful way. Carter's not wrong that it allows parties to walk away from unpopular positions. And I think that that's one of the great advantages of doing it that way. I think realistically, what you are going to see is an increase in the size of cabinet, probably small, but you know, it's easier to just to add people as we've seen in our home province of Alberta. Verna, and more

Corey 58:57

more surgical precision. You know, the ones that nobody can dispute are non-performers will be removed. That'll create some space at the table. Some people will get up. But I'll bet you even in terms of like, it's not going to be everybody moves up a step. It'll be very surgical to try to keep that peace and not create a bunch of discord and maybe the expansion of cabinet. That would be my guess is what's going to happen. Now, in terms of advice, in terms of advice, i would say at

Corey 59:25

at this point you really need to be thinking about uh

Corey 59:28

uh how you reinvigorate your government right

Corey 59:30

right and if you want to do this in a way that causes as little drama as possible this is the point where you say this is the star performers who i can rely on to get things done and i'm going to put them in the places where i want things done and this is this is like look he runs the next election he doesn't run the next election either way he's got to be thinking about how he closes out his prime ministership at this point and this

Corey 59:55

this is now is the time to to be really assertive about that and to count on the people that he counts on to get that done carter

Zain 1:00:02

carter i need to clarify because cory makes a good point here when you said go big did you mean just strictly the size or did you mean no

Zain 1:00:09

go big in another way the number

Carter 1:00:10

number of shifts talk

Zain 1:00:11

talk to me about that the number

Carter 1:00:12

number of shifts so i don't necessarily mean okay i don't necessarily mean uh go big size whole whole bunch of new people um

Carter 1:00:20

um but you're you're gonna ask us specifics about which ministers to move the problem

Zain 1:00:26

be give me not give me one specific yeah on your here's

Carter 1:00:29

here's my specific don't just take a couple of underperformers or perceived underperformers people who are caught up in controversy so um uh i'm gonna forget everybody's names but the the uh the oh

Carter 1:00:44

oh come Come on, the bill, the bill, the digital bill, the digital bill and, you know, you know, you just don't want to be moving people, you

Carter 1:00:55

you know, don't move for people that are embattled, right? If the word embattled comes out of anybody's mind when they're at anybody's mouth, when they're, when they're analyzing this, you will have failed because then it's all about the weakness of your government, not about the strength of your government. And

Carter 1:01:10

And I think that you want to try and hit the strength of your government and the strength of the government is we

Carter 1:01:15

have so many strong performers that we were able to put people where they belong you know these

Carter 1:01:19

these are the this is the new mandate letters that everybody's going to be getting because this is we're not just doing this for shits and giggles we're doing this because we want to reinvigorate canada we want to push ourselves and push this coalition to the to the highest possible levels and we're going to do that through this shift through this cabinet shuffle. And these people, we're not moving them because they're struggling. We're moving them because there's opportunity. And that's the difference that I would be trying to make.

Zain 1:01:50

Corey, give me a specific, any specific about this cabinet shuffle or this rumored

Corey 1:01:55

rumored cabinet shuffle. I will say the one person who I do not expect to be moved at all is Rodriguez. If Pavlo Rodriguez is moved, that's basically admitting defeat on the bill. I would agree And

Corey 1:02:07

so it just doesn't seem possible. Also, I will say, you know, Pablo Rodriguez is a player in the Quebec caucus. I don't know what his current swing or stroke is there. I'm just not that attuned to the regional caucuses, but I can tell you, I mean, he certainly was able to and willing to sew up kind of discord and dissent in the Dion days. Not that that took much. There were a lot of dissenting people at the time. But, you know, I just, I don't think you want that kind of pain. So, yeah, that's the only thing I've got for you. Frankly, I don't know. I don't know what they have in mind, but the

Corey 1:02:45

the reality is I don't expect huge changes for all of the reasons that I've said. Corey,

Zain 1:02:51

Corey, the straight pride t-shirt, let's go back to that for a second. If you're the Alberta NDP, are you swinging on that? I mean, you may say the pitch has already sailed past you, but is that something you're swinging on and how hard? I'm going to ask you the same question about the conservatives in a second.

Zain 1:03:05

Or the federal liberals in a second.

Corey 1:03:07

So, the risk is, it's not, you know, you're basically baiting every right-wing troll to have a shirt and be taken, have a picture taken with you if you're Rachel Notley. that particular thing and and by god they'll try i mean just think about uh kian uh what's his name the bexty pretending to be handcuffed walking out of all of these events and you know the way that they try to play gotcha with the questions and whatnot the

Corey 1:03:36

other thing is i guess if i was going to do what i would say you know there's clearly breakdowns and systems there it's not confidence inspiring i i will take the premier at her word that this is this is what's occurred But you just can't have that as a premier, because when you're premier, who you stand next to matters a great deal. And think about the message that that said to, you know, young

Corey 1:04:00

young youth in Alberta who are not straight, who might be anywhere else on that spectrum. spectrum and so i think that's that's about as far as i would go i i would have trouble going too much farther for

Corey 1:04:14

for a bunch of reasons not least of which is i'm basically begging somebody to to show up with a picture of of me next to like some sort of message that i that a i either disagree with or b you

Corey 1:04:27

you know it is controversial in its own right and then creates this false equivalency challenge that we have you know carter

Zain 1:04:32

carter if you're advising free palestine sure i

Zain 1:04:36

i think the alberta ndp how hard are you swinging at this pitch i'm

Carter 1:04:40

i'm not swinging at it at all i i'm just building part of a you

Carter 1:04:44

you know i'm putting it into our files i'm making sure that we've got note of it i'm making sure that we remember it but this is not something to swing on this is just it's a people aren't paying attention and b you know this isn't important enough and i i know that that's the thing that sounds horrible about this but not every pitch that comes at you is something you should swing at and not every pitch is going to be hit out of the park so this

Carter 1:05:10

this isn't the time this isn't the issue to do this with so let it go let it go federal

Zain 1:05:16

federal liberals carter does your answer change at all are they swinging any differently yeah

Carter 1:05:20

would be bringing some like i'd

Carter 1:05:23

i'd be banging on this you know in in certain markets where you're going to have have a pretty good opportunity for some pickup so i think the federal liberals treat it a little bit differently but i would do it on a very regional basis cory

Zain 1:05:37

cory do you do you agree that the liberals take a swing on this and and make it more targeted or to carter's point and perhaps what i carter you're implying is perhaps through an advertising basis uh

Carter 1:05:46

uh yeah social even just getting my our social stuff swung up yeah

Corey 1:05:50

yeah so i i sure would i mean i wouldn't do it as the prime minister or i would take a more high-minded version of the approach like well you know As a party leader, I would expect more from him. He's

Corey 1:06:00

He's got to be more careful and he's got to think about those things. I'd probably say things like, I understand it's tough. You've got people going through, but that just can't happen. He's got to think about the message that he showed. A little bit more of the slightly more pointed version of the message I suggested for the NDP. In terms of having other people carry that message, yeah. The big difference here, Zane, is we've talked about this. When you

Corey 1:06:27

you think about ballot questions and narratives you're trying to build about people, what's reinforcing of the concerns people have with the opponent? well this is this is like right there solid like yeah you know who is pierre polyev and uh you know he's got baggage and in kind of retrograde views on this going back you know decades and you get to pull them back into the foreground when something like this happens right so yeah i would be a little bit harder with this if i was the uh if i was the liberals for sure um i

Corey 1:06:56

i wouldn't go too hard because the same caution like you're basically asking for somebody to show up with a a shirt. Now, when you're prime minister, a lot harder for that person to get up next to

Corey 1:07:06

opposed to the leader of the opposition

Zain 1:07:08

opposition in the province.

Zain 1:07:09

Hey, Corey, let me end on this, perhaps a meaty question, but I think one that is worthy of asking in this episode as we ended off, selfies. Now, I know neither of the two pictures we're mentioning here with Danielle Smith nor with Pierre Polyab were actual quote-unquote selfies, but selfies have entered the political fray over the last decade significantly. Have they helped or hindered politics in your mind through a strategist lens? Yeah, I'm curious to get your sense. They've clearly had many service level, you know, sort of benefits. You're now even seeing selfie lines become a mainstay of political outreach. But from your strategist lens, give me your initial take. Have they helped? Or have they hindered politics for you? You don't have to do the democracy angle. You don't have to to do that. Give me your ruthless strategy angle, Corey, and just put something on the table.

Corey 1:08:01

I think having your picture with a politician suggested kind of a level of commitment to a politician far beyond what a selfie means, you know, like 20 years ago when it actually took effort to get a photo. I'm not sure. I think it's one of those things that people are likely to share or, hey, look at me. I met the prime minister. Hey, look at me. I met the premier. I met Rachel Notley, whoever it is. And so you've got that and it helps in this whole social network effect world that we've got going on here. I don't think it's materially changed the game, Zane. I don't. I think it's just kind of the things we always did done a different way. Carter,

Zain 1:08:35

you've been a strategist for a number of years. This has been something you've seen over the last decade. It's picking up even more so as the advent of technology increases. Has it helped or hindered politics as a strategist, Carter? I think

Carter 1:08:48

you know, the societal shifts can be can go either way. Right. And the societal shift, I remember going into restaurants and there'd be pictures of the owner with the with the prime minister or the owner with the local area politician or whatever. Right.

Carter 1:09:04

and those restaurants would have up all those pictures and you'd be like oh you know like this is who they're supporting or this

Zain 1:09:09

this is they came to my establishment

Carter 1:09:10

establishment and the difference between the selfie and those photographs is those photographs were taken printed framed put up displayed a selfie is going to live on your phone it's not going to i mean the best case scenario is it lives for the day in the social media feed it is not going to go beyond that unless the the principal or the person in the picture is putting like blackface on. Other than that, it's just a day in the life and it moves on.

Zain 1:09:41

So is it, sorry, is a strategic recommendation for more blackface? Is that what I'm hearing, Carter?

Carter 1:09:48

okay. I'm glad to clarify. We're going to leave it. Thank you. Thank you for clarifying. And

Zain 1:09:50

And I'm glad you hit that softball out of the park,

Zain 1:09:54

It was touch and go for a while.

Carter 1:09:55

while. I can't believe I left that. It was up there and it was questionable. I'm a little disappointed with myself.

Zain 1:09:59

Oh my God. We know you play t-ball, Carter. We're going to leave it there. That's a wrap on episode 1082 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Velgey. With me, as always, Stephen Carter, Corey Hogan, and we will see you next time.

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