Transcript
Annalise
0:01
Welcome to The Strategist, episode 1057. I'm your host, Annalise Klingbeil. With you, as always, Stephen Carter, Corey Hogan.
Corey
0:10
is the best day! You guys are natural.
Corey
0:13
It's better not be an AFL thing. You remember
Carter
0:16
brought up that Tasmania was getting a billion dollar stadium? Today they confirmed it. They confirmed it today. They confirmed it today. I'm very excited. Tasmania is going crazy on the internet. Who's
Annalise
0:27
Who's paying for that
Carter
0:29
it's a mixture it's a mixture so
Carter
0:34
anyways i'm pretty excited and
Carter
0:37
have now discovered a new type of favorite video on tiktok it
Carter
0:42
it is the parents torturing their children by making their kids watch the newest lewis capaldi video on youtube so
Carter
0:51
so the kids watch the video and they are bawling crying so we should do this with your kids cory okay
Carter
0:58
what word what are you even saying lewis capaldi the theme on six it's just
Corey
1:02
just like it's like word salad but
Carter
1:05
man the discord is gonna pop when they hear this welcome
Corey
1:08
welcome welcome to our our strategy and politics podcast i'm telling
Annalise
1:12
telling carter are you on the
Annalise
1:14
you find your password well yeah
Carter
1:17
yeah i found it but then i remembered i don't really like the discord that much so now
Carter
1:22
there seems to be another problem um the
Annalise
1:26
the discord is hopping these days it is i can't keep up yeah people it's a place twitter no longer cool strategist discord super cool
Annalise
1:37
there was there was flair news today hey did you hear about it yeah
Corey
1:42
we assume that was what this entire episode was going to to be brought to us
Annalise
1:46
what what was the news i saw that there was going to be news but what was the news they're
Corey
1:51
they're they're increasing their calgary footprint 150 jobs here in calgary during a very busy travel season um northeast
Corey
2:00
northeast calgary is a wonderful place to view from a window of an airplane on a tarmac and i'm really excited for what's happening
Carter
2:06
happening i mean getting you nowhere we're faster um that's where we that's what we're to hear for this is exciting so
Annalise
2:13
so good day all around for you i'm telling you this has
Carter
2:15
has been the best day
Annalise
2:17
day you're pumped your energy is much better than two well you
Carter
2:21
you know what i'm just i'm just happy to be here with you too i mean i
Carter
2:25
i am a little bit worried that we're gonna have to spend time with zane again on thursday but uh for
Carter
2:31
now this is a pretty good this has been a pretty good day oh
Corey
2:34
oh it's okay good week
Annalise
2:35
live in the moment don't think about thursday uh guys we have things to talk about it is day two of the campaign the first full day um
Annalise
2:44
um i think a lot has happened since we talked like two nights ago so yeah
Annalise
2:50
let's uh let's jump into it let's jump into our first segment it is called unavailable to media um
Annalise
2:56
um guess what happened today or what didn't happen i guess maybe i
Annalise
3:02
i should say got
Carter
3:03
got acquitted of his charges that did not happen today that
Annalise
3:07
did not happen that's gonna be our next that's gonna be we're gonna do more than one segment today no it's okay you're just we're gonna do more than one so no daily announcement from daniel smith no opportunity for media to ask questions um a
Annalise
3:21
a statement from the ucp told reporters that smith has a really busy schedule today and she's talking with voters um and she's actually not she's not scheduled to hold a media availability until until thursday which will be day four of the campaign and just some contrast here the ndp had i believe four media availabilities today just in one day yeah so uh let's get into this cory hogan what what's the strategy here i
Corey
3:49
i this the strategy is pretty plain the strategy is uh if we don't get up we can't get knocked down and so we're not going to have ourselves available at this very very particular moment with the Pawlowski verdict. But I think also in general, and one of the things that was chatter on Twitter was that Smith's campaign team had told reporters a few weeks ago that they would be like, yeah, every day there'll be an announcement, kind of standard campaign stuff. We actually talked about this last episode. This is the cadence of the campaign.
Corey
4:18
But now they're saying, ah, maybe three a week. We're going to change it all up. And that's different. I mean, it's not unprecedented in the sense that Doug Ford did a a pretty typical version of this as well. This is happening a lot more, particularly with governments. But what might be unprecedented is literally day two disappearing. Like, I cannot think of a time that has happened. That's really wild to me. Because at the end of the day, and maybe we can unpack this a bit, elections are supposed to be 28 days of accountability, where we hold a government to account and we consider our options. And the whole name of the game is is availability to voters through the media, right? The idea that you're out there and you're just, as the premier, going to talk to voters. I'm doing air quotes.
Carter
5:06
Oh, it's really good, though. I saw them, and I thought they were excellent.
Corey
5:10
Like, there are four and a half million people in this fucking province. You could knock on a door every second for
Corey
5:16
for the rest of the campaign, and you're not going to get through all four and a half million hours. Hang
Carter
5:20
Hang on a second. I'm going to check your math. So
Corey
5:21
So that's the reality.
Corey
5:25
yeah a million seconds is about 11 days just cory
Annalise
5:28
cory knows what he's talking about carter we've or we just discovered that on your
Annalise
5:34
yeah just trust them sound genius right there uh
Annalise
5:40
me something carter have you yeah i was gonna ask you something not about sound about the subject we were talking about i
Annalise
5:47
like how much cory said and then we just just ignored him and now he looks
Annalise
5:52
he looks really sad day two steven carter have you seen something like this on on a day two of hey it's day two first full day and no no but
Carter
6:03
but in fairness i mean i've never seen a premier who talked to a defendant and and wished them well on their on their criminal defense uh and then had the verdict in the middle of the campaign when said premier said she was going to sue the outlet that reported it so it's it's unique it's different it's
Carter
6:20
a weird time so i can almost understand i'm not doing it but but to cory's point to cory's point um it's not just about reaching the voters through the media but you
Carter
6:31
you have to reach the voters in every possible way so you do a facebook live you do a twitter you do uh instagram live you're making sure that you're available to people you're door knocking you're you're doing rallies, you're handing out sandwiches to volunteers that are going out to Doorknock, you are not taking anything off
Carter
6:50
off the list of to do because you have 28 days and you are going to work 18 hours a day to make sure that you can do everything that is required. You know, we rent them a fucking bus so that they can sleep on the bus and catch up and do their, you know, do their meetings and never have to leave the campaign trail. and instead of doing that type of campaign the tried and true campaign where we are bustling and hustling this campaign has had this isn't a choice this is something that you have had to do they have had to remove the leader from the media which reaches i don't know minimum half million people a day minimum the the mainstream media if you were to do and be interviewed by you know know especially by the rebel you know but instead of doing this you're completely pulled back and now you're not getting any attention from to those half million people and instead you're talking to your hyper engaged because that's all you can talk to because those are the only people coming out to events those are the only people going door knocking those are the only people answering the doors like this is the most asinine quote-unquote strategic decision but it wasn't a a decision it's only being done because they had no other choice they know that if they put daniel smith in front of the media it's another two or three days of a negative story period
Corey
8:12
well look that doesn't mean it's not a decision it just means it was for them a relatively easy one i you know what there's there's an interesting thing here which is my personal feeling is this is not what campaigns are supposed to be like you know i don't want to feel like old-fashioned and they They have to be run a particular way. But I do believe in a democracy. That's kind of the bargain, right? Like we just say, like for these 28 days, there's no hiding. There's no sleeping. This is what you do. You're available to people here. And instead, for a bunch of tactical reasons, they've decided perhaps it wouldn't be wise to put Danielle Smith up. Maybe they'll ask a question. Maybe that answer will be reported on. Maybe that answer is bad for us. We don't show up. They can't do it. They don't show up. People can't get outraged. If everything stays the way it is, we're going to win this thing. And really the only guard we have against, and by the way, it's not just Danielle Smith, like this is happening more, right? This whole general approach is happening more. And the guardrail is supposed to be, we all get mad about it, right? We say, no, accountability is required. You're not giving it to us. See you later. But instead we are all so, and this is so ironic as a guy who has this podcast, who is talking to people listening to this podcast, but we are all so up the ass of the meta analysis, right? Right. Like, oh, what's the tactic? And is this a savvy tactic for Daniel Smith?
Carter
9:32
the fuck are you doing?
Carter
9:35
What are you doing, man? Roll
Corey
9:40
We've got to take a minute every now and then and say, is
Corey
9:44
is this right? Is this appropriate? Is this what I expect from elected officials in a democracy? Should I be cheering them on because they've managed to game it in such a way that they are less accountable to me? Or should I hold even somebody I support to a higher standard than that? And should I say, no, you don't get my vote if you're not willing to fight for my vote?
Annalise
10:06
I like ranty Corey. Like this is the last time I saw this is when we were talking about the prime minister's rat infested house. I mean, I mean,
Carter
10:17
wrote it down. I'm using that speech for his launch for the Alberta party leadership.
Carter
10:25
I mean, Jesus, Corey, like, here's the thing. The voters don't hold people to account. Right now, the voters do not hold people to account. Your whole speech was given for, like, the people who are on the Discord right now chatting about what it is we're talking about. That whole speech was for the Discord. It's not for the actual everyday voter that does. Six
Corey
10:46
Six dollars, baby. You paid that I gave it. This is a Patreon
Carter
10:49
This is not for that average everyday voter who is barely able to make a decision. They will be like, oh, I don't even know who to vote for. Is it election day today? I mean, do
Carter
11:01
do a man on the street interview. Ask people on the day of the election when the election is coming, on the day of the election, and they will not know. They will be shocked to find out it is today. A remarkable percentage of the population will be like, oh, is that today? Because people do not give a shit. and therefore they do not punish and therefore um you know danielle smith will not be punished appropriately the way that you've described it for her sins of of not uh uh genuflecting to the media
Annalise
11:32
what what is the appropriate punishment well
Carter
11:34
well she should lose but cory's entirely right on that but uh i didn't want to undo my my he had a steam
Corey
11:42
look i i am i i think that like the games that we play and the way that we cheer on cleverness instead of righteousness is a little depressing frankly and i think it's a lot of how we've managed to get to the position we're in where all of a sudden it's sports team bullshit it's like what a great deke what a great pass you know not what great people what great policy and and that That sucks. That really sucks at the end of the day. But, you know, also, you're listening to a podcast about strategy, so I'll probably leave it there. But that is a bit of a challenge for me as a voter, as a citizen. Great
Carter
12:16
Great news, everybody. Corey is now running Kerry Cundall's campaign.
Corey
12:23
like this idea that suggesting somebody is running for the Alberta party is now one of our most
Corey
12:28
most sincere insults that we have available.
Carter
12:32
It lands, baby. It lands, right? right yeah
Annalise
12:34
that's what about um
Annalise
12:38
what about what about this fact and maybe cory i'll throw it to you because you you're you're on with the uh the rants and the speeches and this is this good material carter's taking notes but
Annalise
12:50
but um there was a thing going around twitter today saying that the ucp has removed like the the q
Annalise
12:58
q a the reporter questions on media availabilities that they've had so far so they have this list of videos i don't know if it was on facebook or youtube or what but videos that were 20 minutes before because there was 10 minutes of reporter questions are now 10 minutes like just scrubbing everything that she said uh good good strategy bad strategy sorry take it away good
Carter
13:21
good strategy bad strategy question no
Corey
13:25
no no actually for what it's worth for what it's worth this is one of the great joys of twitter i got i was talking to somebody about this and those videos are still available it does seem to be they've just repackaged on youtube where they're where they're prioritizing those things and i can't really kind of that doesn't seem nefarious it does seem like a waste of time to take a video from two weeks ago and do that but it doesn't seem necessarily nefarious it is however part of an overall feeling that perhaps the q a is not part of the event that is underpinning i think a few of the decisions that Danielle Smith and the UCP have taken here? And that's an open question, right? Is the Q&A part of the event? Because I can tell you, it's not just a UCP thing. I can think of a lot of times when I have, like, even for corporate clients, when there's a Q&A component, been like, that's good, but that's not actually what I'm going to put online at the end of it, because that's not the message I control. So
Corey
14:16
So from a communications practitioner point of view, I
Corey
14:20
can't really fault them for not wanting to have the message they control be the message they lead with. And as As long as they're making that available still and not trying to put it into some kind of memory hole,
Corey
14:30
I mean, I'm not that fussed about it now that I know it's still available. And, you know, there's all sorts of other things. I will say, though, that
Corey
14:39
that when those videos went, it was reporters who were talking about this, the idea that the Q&A had disappeared on Twitter. That's the state that reporters are in right now of suspicion of the UCP.
Corey
14:50
And the UCP will say, see evidence of a biased reporter. i see it more as evidence of a ucp that is treating reporters with
Corey
14:58
with an awful lot of contempt it's very interesting you
Carter
15:01
got to feed the beast and they're not feeding the beast and because they're not feeding the beast the beast is going off and trying to find themselves meal and the beast is the media in this case because in case i wasn't clear thanks um you
Carter
15:15
looking at i was looking at that you look confused so i was the beast is the media in this is
Corey
15:20
there a beast where is this should i be worried i left
Corey
15:23
left my screen no i
Annalise
15:26
i was confused because i was waiting for more fire from cory and then you didn't really have fun that's why i was confused you can keep going with your he's
Carter
15:36
is all he's got anyways the
Corey
15:39
literally she's saying i hit a different note than she was expecting that's okay
Carter
15:43
okay then you only have one time i don't know what do you want from me like Like,
Annalise
15:49
Okay. Go on Carter. If you're, um, you're
Carter
15:51
you're not going to make me be
Annalise
15:52
be in charge of like the
Carter
15:53
the UCP again. Are you? Okay.
Annalise
15:56
No, I didn't. I haven't done that before. Let's say you're advising the NDP. What do they do in this moment when Smith is like hiding from media, unavailable to stop doing,
Carter
16:06
doing, uh, stop doing four press conferences in a day. Um, do one press conference in a day, make yourself available, but let's not go crazy. crazy uh the the idea of doing i mean you want to feed the beast but you don't want to take away from the story that is uh the ucp imploding the you know there's narratives that the ucp can't trust um daniel smith to be in front of the media great
Carter
16:31
great do that let that narrative go let let the ucp imploding be part of the story but you don't have to feed it four times feed it once put your your message out there own your message and then at the bottom of your messaging document or the bottom of your messaging event comes the the the the media reporting um we were unable to speak to uh you know the ucp leader because she wouldn't speak to media you know and that's that's what you need you don't need you
Carter
17:02
you know this is the equivalent of doing a till you drop press conference you know it works on the west wing it doesn't work in real life don't try and push too much out try and and you know do what you need to do do what's smart on any other day and don't worry about uh trying to outsmart the media or or control the media as they're covering um this story they've got it they know what they're doing cory
Annalise
17:26
cory jump in yeah
Corey
17:27
yeah i'm i'm not convinced that that's what the ndp is trying to do here i don't think they said smith's not here so we're going to flood the zone i feel they probably just like this is day two right they're still running on their plans from before this campaign began, I'm sure they thought this would be a normal campaign with multiple events happening where you're wrestling over the microphone, not knowing that somebody is just going to hand them the microphone and then walk off and say, see, it's all yours today. We're fine if they're talking to you and not about Artur Pawlowski, right? And what's going to be interesting is not so much what the NDP does today, but what they do in the next couple of days and how they adapt to the UCP strategy. Because I 100% agree with you.
Corey
18:07
They should not not make the mistake of being so aggressively not what the ucp is doing you you see people do this all the time i've talked about this michael ignatyev did this with the liberals he'd take any question he'd talk till he dropped then
Corey
18:20
then they wrote about whatever they wanted and not the thing he wanted them to write about and that's a challenge but
Corey
18:25
but the uh but the ndp do have an immense opportunity here in that contrast as well um but
Corey
18:32
but you've gotta you gotta let the media carry bury your water on that one, rather than be
Corey
18:37
be the person who's making that attack yourself.
Annalise
18:39
Okay, big last question here, while we're talking about being unavailable to media is the debate.
Annalise
18:45
Is there a way for Daniel Smith to get out of the debate? And if so, tell me what that is, and if it will happen? There
Carter
18:51
There is a way to get out of the debate. You know, but it's super duper hard. And the way to get out of the debate is to have your opponent, essentially say, we cannot follow follow those rules. We can't, we can't do what you're suggesting. And as a result, we won't do it. Um, you know, so you could, you could say, Hey, we want, uh, you know, we want the Alberta party. We want the communist party. We want, you know, the liberal party. Do they even have a leader? You know, but we want seven, we want every political party that is running, uh, three candidates in this election to be on the stage. And then the NDP is going to go, uh,
Carter
19:29
uh, no, that's it's not good for us. Well, we tried and we just couldn't make it work. Um, and those are the types of kind of sabotaging ideas that you'll do to try and get them to say no. Now, if you're the NDP,
Carter
19:43
you negotiate, but at the end of the day, you just probably are not going to say no, right? You, you know, we're going to have a debate. We're going to say yes to it. And, and this, this negotiation will take place as much behind closed doors as it will take place, uh, media, you know, as Smith has already alluded to, you know, if there's not a debate, it's going to be Rachel Notley's fault.
Corey
20:09
Yeah, there's lots of ways to sabotage debates. I think the most obvious one right now at this moment with these particular players is Danielle Smith saying, I want the moderator to be X. And when they say we refuse X, then they say, well, I tried to be reasonable. I offered X plus a moderator of their choosing. And yeah, I chose Derek Fildebrandt from the Western Standard. You know, I think that he's a very reasonable individual and he would bring an awful lot to the debate. I don't know why they're afraid of Derek Fildebrandt. I was willing to accept, you know, Don Braid, their moderator. I mean, I'm just randomly picking a person, but the reality is she can create this equivalency between a mainstream personality on global global television, you know, at PostMedia, and whoever she wants to bring in from the rebel or true north or anything like that, and then almost look like the victim and say, I
Corey
21:02
I don't understand. I thought this was supposed to be fair. It was supposed to be balanced. You pick one, I pick one. How is that not balanced? When in reality, we know that's actually deeply unbalanced, because you're going to have one neutral party and one aggressively right-wing partisan party. So, but, you know, the point here, the thing to underline in both what Stephen said with the parties, which is like, yeah, let's have them all on the stage. That's a very kind of, it
Corey
21:26
it seems like a virtuous position to take. Let's have multiple moderators to get lots of viewpoints on. Seems like a virtuous position to take. The way you torpedo your participation in any event, not just a televised debate in politics that you're otherwise feeling like you have to go to, is you find high-minded ground that you know is not actually high-minded and you know the other party cannot accept for all sorts of reasons that would be difficult to explain to the public.
Annalise
21:53
So, do you think this will happen? Like, do you think we will see a debate with Daniel Smith and Rachel Nally on stage together?
Corey
22:01
I do. do so i said this on a show a while ago in alberta i just think the consortium is fairly strong and it would be a little harder to walk away from than it would in a jurisdiction where it's a little looser and you know it's it's being run by different groups all of the time but even if for whatever reason the consortium debate fell through there's
Corey
22:21
there's been all sorts of like pseudo debates in elections past creeping debates people wanting to go to the same thing you know the the joint press conference style like the three in a row or four in a row depending on the number of leaders we'll see something like that and if it's the only thing we get it will elevate itself to like the debate i
Corey
22:40
have to believe um because
Corey
22:42
because it would be like it's like impossible to avoid those moments in 28 days but i actually think we'll probably still see a consortium debate and the other thing that we should say is yes
Corey
22:54
yes this could be her putting out breadcrumbs to not do the debate it could also just be a negotiating tactic to try to get her version of the debate
Annalise
23:02
okay let's leave that there unless Carter has any last words or just a reminder
Carter
23:06
reminder that you know Alison Redford's mother passed away on a Tuesday and she was debating on a Thursday so there's not a lot of reason to get out of these things
Annalise
23:19
let's move on to our next segment our next segment is called victory belongs to the Lord um arthur palowski the street preacher he was convicted in a lesser court room just a few hours ago it's breaking news day tuesday afternoon breaking news
Annalise
23:35
right from the dms breaking news
Annalise
23:40
tuesday afternoon he was convicted of criminal mischief relating to the coots border blockade as well as breaching a release order this is the same guy who had the 11 minute phone call with daniel smith that we've talked about a lot and the same guy who told people yesterday monday come to the lethbridge courthouse victory belongs to the lord see you at the courthouse it's gonna be an amazing day um that was not quite the mood after the ruling so a bunch to pick apart here and i guess maybe we can start by relating it to that media conversation that we were just having and
Annalise
24:15
and i guess an an asterisk here that smith is being investigated by the ethics commissioner for the phone call so that is kind of what her response today was was i can't talk about this no comment i'm being investigated um but going back to the like her not being available to media today could she not have been available because if they asked about this she could have just said i'm being investigated no comment well
Carter
24:40
well i mean it leads me to believe that the not being available was kind of more than just one issue i mean you
Carter
24:49
it's not like they're going to forget to ask the question in four days right like whenever she surfaces this these types of questions are going to come up it's just the nature of of the game so uh i suspect that there was a number do
Annalise
25:01
do you think though i'll i'll challenge you on that though carter do you think they not that they'll forget to ask the question but if you're not allowed follow-ups and she only takes four questions and it's a campaign and a lot happens between now and three days when she does an availability do
Annalise
25:16
do they not i think they ask the question i
Carter
25:18
i think that the question is too important you know especially given um the direction one of them is going to ask the question it may not be the first question but i think that um you know given that they're not getting follow-up so at some point like what what issue is going to trump this you know it's just it this is a big fucking deal and the media are going to follow it there's no you
Carter
25:41
you know the media follow stories and right now this is the story because in no no small part because she's avoiding it right you know if it may be if she wasn't avoiding it you
Carter
25:51
you know this thing loses its luster so so
Annalise
25:55
what would you have advised her to do today knowing that this ruling was going to come out this afternoon i
Carter
26:00
i probably would just take the hit today and then move on to my primary messaging starting tomorrow you
Carter
26:05
you know this is still very early in the campaign people have not turned on yet uh so you can get away with all kinds of stuff that you know later in the campaign is going going to sting so take your medicine go out and say listen i i you know i i've said too much already on this i'm being investigated at this time i'm not able to to give you a fulsome answer my apologies next question and
Carter
26:30
and that's your medicine it's not that it's it you know it's going to taste bad for a bit and there's going to be some headlines but it's not going to be that painful compared to doing
Carter
26:39
doing it again in in five days four
Carter
26:42
four days two days cory
Annalise
26:42
cory do you agree agree with that of take take the hit now instead of make it a story for tomorrow when it's like and she still didn't talk to media meanwhile arthur polosky and then the next state like continuing the story i'm
Corey
26:54
i'm not 100 sure i i've gone back and forth in my own mind on this i do understand not wanting to have even like even what steven said there like do you really want clips of you saying geez i'd love to talk about this but i'm under investigation like Like, I understand that that's a message provided through the campaign team, but to actually have the UCP leaders say that is not a great look, right? And if you only have a couple of questions and you start almost playing a game of chicken saying like, hey, listen, you can waste your question on this. There's going to be so many other things going on. You know she's going to say she can't answer it by not having, you know, when you think about newsworthiness, there's a few different components you look for, right? Right. Obviously, this has conflict, but this will no longer have timeliness if she pushes it back a couple of days and people will be sitting there going, oh, geez, do I really want to blow it on this one particular question? So, it might not even be an insane strategy. I will say that I personally probably would have recommended something, a
Corey
27:55
a variant of Stevens, which would be having a very early event, like I'm saying, like an 8am event, where there's a media avail in it, and then having another event before this verdict is expected out, like 10am, where you basically stomp on your own story with yourself, right, with an announcement of some sort. So even though that is out there, it's filtered out of the cycle before it's even in there. And your answer is a non-answer to begin with. So why is anybody going to waste too much time chasing that one down?
Annalise
28:24
Do you think this is going to continue to be a political headache? And I guess I ask that knowing that Pawlowski has told media that like, hey, I'm going to talk more about this phone call next week. Is this going to be something that her campaign is going to continue to have to message around or avoid or whatever the strategy is? Yeah,
Corey
28:43
Yeah, well, clearly he thinks he's
Corey
28:45
he's got something that will dent her. And I think the most obvious thing would be, what did she know about the nature of the call and when and what evidence he may have to that effect? Let's not forget, it was recorded, but
Corey
28:59
but we don't have the bumpers. We don't have a lot of the stuff around it. We don't have any email exchanges. We don't have perhaps a phone call. So for all we know, this is reckless speculation, and I'm not even saying this is speculation, but this is a possibility that for all we know, Polowski recorded a phone call of him and Rob Anderson coordinating that the premier was going to call, right? Like, we just don't know. And certainly we do know one thing about the guy, and it's that he records fucking phone calls. So if there's other phone calls, that could obviously be a big shoe to drop. he's also clearly mad and he's clearly going to be sticking it to the premier insofar as he's able to do so so like yeah i mean buckle up it's
Corey
29:36
it's clearly going to be in the news at least one more day and
Corey
29:39
and you can't you can't avoid half the election so you're going to have to have a strategy better than going to the mattresses for two days when this thing comes carter
Annalise
29:48
carter what's what should the ndp do um right now with this just sit it out or what's your advice when
Carter
29:55
when you're when your opponent is in the midst of self-destruction, you stay out of the way. They have a healthcare message they need to carry. They have an education message they need to carry. They have an economic message, a cost of living message. Carry those messages, the ones that you need, and keep pushing them out. The easiest thing in the world to do in an election campaign is become excited by the the opposition and what their you know and their implosion it is uh you know you want to keep it going if you if you need to but this thing going all by itself if you have more facts to bring to the table if you the ndp have the copy of you know polowski talking to rob you
Carter
30:42
you know in advance then that that you should do but right now you just you don't need to be in this you know and that Even if you had that, you'd leak it so it didn't have fingerprints. And, you
Carter
30:54
you know, I think that leaking without fingerprints is one of the key elements of ensuring that a story continues. So I imagine that the NDP have that skill set.
Annalise
31:07
Corey, did you want to jump in there?
Corey
31:09
Yeah, I did. And then I started thinking, geez, that's kind of almost the last segment. But I'll say it anyways. One of the things about the Smith strategy of hiding, right? if that's what's going on, or even just not making themselves available is probably the less negative way to put that as part of a strategy to just not have the message bounce off where they are. One of the things about it is it's new. And I am sure that they are watching carefully to see its success or not. And so this is a moment where if people push back on it, whether it's the public or the media in some way, shape, or form, they might bail on it, and they might go to five days a week. But if there is no pushback, they'll just continue you going through it and so what's pulling it back to this palowski story if
Corey
31:52
if in two days nobody's talking about the palowski verdict at the daniel smith presser that does happen they're
Corey
31:59
they're going to do the exact same thing in two weeks when this thing inevitably kicks back into the news right because they will have they will have convinced themselves yeah that worked fine and nobody cared that much so um you know it's interesting how elections are these little experiments too where or you try things on a day. And because the time is so short, you
Corey
32:20
you really sweat those results early. And you don't really have time to say, well, yeah, it didn't work today, but let's play it out for a couple more days. Like, don't get me wrong, that is usually the smart thing to do is to stay the course. But, you know, there'll be a desire to panic and flip as well. And it's something to watch over the next bit and something to see if it modifies, you know, Smith's availability ability on this
Annalise
32:41
what would that pushback look like like i mean reporters are obviously mad about this we know that they've been tweeting it you can kind of read it in their stories but in terms of actual pushback what are you thinking i
Corey
32:53
i think it would actually come if it's going to come from anywhere it's going to come from candidates and their teams we're hearing it on the doors we're getting killed on the doors on this and we haven't talked about this but this is an important topic one of the big very
Corey
33:06
very rumor apocryphal pipelines any central campaign has to deal with is the on the doors pipeline
Corey
33:13
right and it's like impossible to refute you don't even know if it's come up on the doors right it could just be the campaign manager's own anxieties the candidate's own anxieties it could have come up three times in 300 doors which is not actually a massive sample but especially if you've got meetings that have like a q a component and campaign managers can talk to each other or they can throw questions out candidates
Corey
33:35
candidates can be a roman and mob right like they can just sort of flip with each other and be like oh i heard that on the doors too me too me too you know um and and so you know good central campaign teams take it all with a bit of a grain of salt and have tactics to kind of tamp it down and move on to different questions and and frankly make examples of candidates and campaign managers in the moment if they're going way too offside where you'd like absolutely torch
Corey
34:01
make them look foolish yeah Yeah, you just you crush them for it before other people jump on it. But, you know, sometimes it's real and you can kind of feel that you start getting emails, you start getting texts. And if that happens, Danielle Smith might need to reconsider because then she has to worry about her party cracking. And if you have candidates saying they think the premier should do something different, the leader should do something different. That's that's a process story that's not very advantageous to you.
Carter
34:30
okay you want to hear how to kill someone in a meeting like that oh
Corey
34:34
oh i've got a few myself but i
Carter
34:36
i mean i'd love so the problem with all of this is that the the the data sample that the campaigns are working with is often really small right so the very first thing that i will ask somebody in public is how many doors did they knock yesterday and i have the data because
Carter
34:53
because the The data is available to the campaign manager because everybody's entering the data into a common data sheet or
Carter
35:01
or into a common database.
Carter
35:03
So if the campaign,
Carter
35:05
campaign, you know, the campaign that's bitching and moaning about the, you know, this is all I'm hearing at the doors. How many, how many doors did you hear that on? Well,
Carter
35:15
Well, that's really interesting because you only entered in three new sign locations yesterday and five new identified votes. Just exactly. who did you hear it from, Bob? Who
Carter
35:24
Who did you hear it from?
Carter
35:26
Because what I'm seeing is you're
Carter
35:27
you're not out there on the doors nearly enough. Let me show you a campaign that is on the doors. And you go to one of your allies and you say, how many doors did you knock?
Carter
35:36
2,000. How many people gave you this type of feedback? Maybe you're not doing it right, Bob. Maybe you need to do it better.
Corey
35:46
I mean, that's really great. Yeah. I like that a lot. And having that data, One of the nice things about being in the central campaign is you do have a much broader view and your broader view allows you to kind of pick and choose the examples that give you the story that you want. So even if it were true that was coming up at the doors, you
Carter
36:05
you can still slaughter, you
Corey
36:05
you know, to Steven's point, because, you know, you can still, you
Carter
36:08
you know, like a hundred times more than they do at that particular moment, because they're in their own bubble and you're not in their bubble.
Corey
36:15
there's 87 writings 85 of them could have that at the doors you're gonna know that
Corey
36:19
don't and you're gonna call on them and say why don't you tell us what you're hearing
Corey
36:23
and uh and then every one of those other 84 will be like well maybe i'm in the minority too maybe i should just shut the fuck up so
Annalise
36:31
so carter what you're saying is even if there is pushback as cory was kind of saying that she would do this if she might have to if there was pushback you're saying like even if there was pushback
Annalise
36:42
pushback you can just kind of poke oh
Carter
36:44
oh there's going there's pushback every single day and at least i mean you're you're talking about one specific thing but i guarantee you uh you know tomorrow morning on the on the call and every campaign has the calls there's going to be um some haggard campaign manager or deputy campaign manager because the campaign manager just can't fucking talk take talking to those fuckers for one minute um and you know there's gonna good good face there
Carter
37:11
this is why it's supposed to be video um but the people
Annalise
37:14
people would pay to
Annalise
37:15
to see that we
Carter
37:16
we did actually do that at one point but then riverside crapped out on us and here we are anyways the point being that um the
Carter
37:25
the campaigns bitch and moan every day every single day and they they bring forward you know this is what i'm hearing on the doors and then i have to and then i pull out my polling and i say that's fascinating you're earning on the doors i just just had a poll done last night representative sample what what sample again was yours you were in which community varsity acres oh how representative is varsity acres i mean do you really think do you think that that's going to compete with my data let me tell you where this issue where crime and safety is on this particular it's the ninth issue bob it's the ninth issue is this really something you want to bring up today because and if you don't make an example Like you have to fucking crush them because they will kill you every single day, every single day, especially
Corey
38:10
especially in this first week, you know, and actually in this first week, you also get a lot of queries that are just so small that,
Corey
38:18
that, you know, through your tone, you make your displeasure known. And then you route them to a function area that's three rungs down, right? Because it'll be like, yeah, my sign order showed up and I ordered 4,000 and I only got 3,000. And it looks a little different than I thought I signed off on. And you say, hey, Bob, you know what? This is not the call for it. There are 86 other campaign managers here. This has got to be stuff that affects all of us, Bob. So go talk to your field officer, Bob, right? Right. And, and, and so I guess that's the other tactic I would throw on the table in a big way is say like, this is about all of us. This is not about you. And you have a very interesting story here. Talk to your field officer about it. But we got to talk about the big story here. Would you like to hear the big story here now? Would you like to join us at the big kids
Corey
39:05
that's actually probably how
Carter
39:06
how steve would put it um but you know i'd say like you like oh those signs have you already spoken to your to your campaign liaison why why not do
Carter
39:18
do you do you not have their telephone number are you unable to remember their telephone number uh let me get their telephone number for you let me know we'll stop this meeting we don't need this meeting we'll stop the meeting let me get the telephone number we'll
Corey
39:30
we'll just call them yeah
Carter
39:32
answer why don't we get the answer together guys does everybody want the answer to where the missing signs are who wants that answer so
Carter
39:40
carter just to just to loop back to what you want to do the in
Annalise
39:44
in this segment no but if if bob if bob comes to you and says like hey i door knocks all night with all these people and we just heard palowski palowski palowski palowski you
Annalise
39:56
you got to come out of hiding we got to do something what role play what do you say so i'm not
Carter
40:00
not able to torch bob
Carter
40:02
Bob's not going to get torched? You
Annalise
40:03
You can do whatever you
Annalise
40:04
you want. I'm saying how would you respond
Corey
40:08
respond to Bob's answer? I'll give Bob a different response if you torch
Carter
40:11
torch Bob. Bob, what were they saying a week ago?
Carter
40:13
What were they saying a week ago? Because that's what matters, Bob. You have to be able to take your data more than just a day at a time, Bob. You have to be able to look at more than just one day of data at a time. So what were they saying a week ago and how have we addressed it? Because I'll tell you something. We listened to you, Bob, and we solved the problems, but you can't just shit on us all day you can't you got to bring us something positive every once in a while it
Annalise
40:39
even make sense because palowski's verdict was no but
Carter
40:42
but that's the point it wasn't happening a week ago a week ago there was another issue there's always another issue with these guys so remind them that there's there's another issue a week ago that that's gone now that doesn't exist anymore and that's where palowski is going to be in a week he's
Carter
40:57
he's gonna be gone so
Annalise
40:58
so cory what's what's your response to bob let's hear it so
Corey
41:01
so bob's bob says to me hey i'm hearing this at the doors a lot and i say oh
Corey
41:05
oh geez bob that that does sound like it's a tough conversation we probably wouldn't want to do anything to fuel that conversation and have to have it at the doors even more would we bob and
Corey
41:15
then bob would say yeah no no we we absolutely shouldn't that's why she's got to come out and talk about this and i would say i'd like you to read back the exact same thing you just just say it again slower Bob I thought you weren't
Corey
41:26
weren't shitting on Bob I
Carter
41:28
I was shitting on Bob and you weren't shitting on Bob we're both shitting on Bob
Annalise
41:32
Cory's doing it in the nice guy way this is the nice guy way Carter's
Annalise
41:39
in the Carter way Cory's doing it in the nice guy way
Annalise
41:45
you said Bob okay next segment we can keep this one not super long I just want to talk about the campaign launches uh that happened monday feels like ages ago yesterday the rent was dropped on monday notley held a campaign launch at platform calgary smith was in auburn bay um do i guess what stands out to me from the launches is like these visuals right because you have these stories that have the side by side you have notley in this like bustling room full of people you have smith outside it kind of looks like the sun was maybe in her eyes with some candidates behind her um do i guess the big question is like do do campaign launches and the visuals that go along with them do they matter steven oh yeah
Carter
42:29
yeah they do matter um and and the theme i think is really important in this you know the the platform calgary for the uh for the ndp you know we're on the cutting edge of of the next i mean that that really works now it's fleeting it's not going to win you the election or anything along those lines but it does give you um you know the the beginnings of the story that you want to be able to tell and that you know we have a good organization we can get these things done we've chosen the right location we're getting our message out through through the locations choice this this to me is was a uh i mean i mean perfect
Carter
43:05
perfect launch would be probably pushing too far because there's no such thing but it's a pretty good launch and the visuals and the the energy i think were palpable and
Annalise
43:18
and does it does it add to it that yeah the comparison to because you're comparing them right well
Carter
43:22
well that's the same story that they're going to be in right like it's not like you used to get a three-minute story on the ndp and then a three-minute story on the wild rose or you
Carter
43:30
you know a three-minute story on the pcs they're both going to be in the same story because of the state of the media which we've talked about quite a bit yeah
Annalise
43:38
yeah we don't need to get into that
Carter
43:40
that no i didn't do it it's mine i didn't do it
Annalise
43:43
cory what's uh what is your two cents well
Corey
43:47
well my two cents is that both campaigns are trying to do different things and it's definitely not an apples to apples comparison and let me give you a uh let me give you my read on the smith press conference slash campaign launch slash however they did that there because it didn't have kind of that standard campaign launch energy but they they uh they took a different track right they they had what i think they hoped would be a splashier policy announcement than was we haven't even talked like we're at minute 44 and we haven't talked about the fact that ucp said they're going to lower everybody's income tax for eight percent jesus
Annalise
44:22
jesus it's in the lightning round it's lightning round we'll
Corey
44:24
we'll get there yeah
Corey
44:27
it was talking about money for everyone you know they went for a severely normal vibe in a severely normal suburb that is how the majority of calgarians live their lives in communities like that dealing with pocketbook issues and the ndp went a different way right they went for energy and technology and this view of the future that i find quite inspiring but i think we have to acknowledge is not going to be inspiring for absolutely everybody and they were both trying to tell a different story with the particular things they had going on and it's not one event to steven's point that you need to dwell too much on i i can only think of a few campaign launches that like immediately stick in my memory i honestly couldn't even tell you what the campaign launch was in 2012 for the campaign i ran i
Corey
45:12
don't remember what it was i
Carter
45:13
i don't either um
Corey
45:14
um because it all just blurs
Carter
45:17
my launch i mean mine was meaningful yeah yeah felt
Carter
45:23
felt a little more negative What
Corey
45:25
What can I tell you?
Corey
45:26
It's over time you get that feeling. It's not one campaign visual. It's 28 days of campaign visuals. And in that same 2012 campaign, my director of tour, Justin Archer is his name, really great guy, really smart guy. He'd done tour for McGinty in Ontario, like not at like the director level, but he, you know, so he, some of the tools of the trade came back. he had this wall that he created that we called the wall of sherman raj sherman was the leader there and every time there was a photo of raj sherman in one of the major newspapers in the province because of course different era we got them all every morning that
Corey
46:03
that picture went up on the wall and
Corey
46:05
and over the course of 28 days as it grew out you got such a feeling for the campaign and its visuals and its cues and its beats and exactly what we were going for and um and it was was a great way both of making the tour team more consistent because then after a while you're like oh yeah that feels like an event that we want right
Corey
46:25
and it also becomes a way that you get to see what the public sees when they look at it in aggregate this is the story that you're telling and that story matters a lot and so i'm less interested in one splashy event i'm interested in the sum of events and to be honest i actually didn't think the ucp one pretty easy to dunk on because there's not as many people there's the logistic challenges that always come with being outside right it's like a very uncontrolled environment very
Corey
46:52
things like the sun you should have a handle on go go down the cul-de-sac man pick a different house that doesn't have the sun but you
Corey
46:59
you know on the whole it was fine and when i think of the visuals there i think of daniel smith in front of a lectern that says your taxes are going down in a suburban neighborhood which is exactly what the battleground of this election is about so
Corey
47:12
so i'm far less critical about it than i I think many people are that I've seen online.
Carter
47:16
Carter, are you critical? Well, no, but I mean, yeah,
Carter
47:19
yeah, I'm critical of it because it wasn't as good. But Corey's not wrong. But I'm fascinated by his clipping story of the pictures and everything else. I mean, we were
Carter
47:29
busy campaigning, so we didn't have time to do arts and crafts.
Annalise
47:38
When he was telling it, I was like, that's a good idea. They got that narrative. They got the pictures. I'm sorry, Corey. I'm sorry, man.
Annalise
47:45
couldn't help it. It
Corey
47:46
It was a good idea. It is worth doing, even in this day and age. Just print off the visual from, like, the website.
Annalise
47:53
can still buy newspapers, Corey.
Corey
47:57
that would be weird because that's, I guess my point, my rebuttal, Annalise, would be that's not how people see pictures these days. So I would actually be more interested in the things that are, like, the web story and, like, the big social graphic that went viral.
Carter
48:11
is true. I feel bad. I picked on Corey. screenshot
Annalise
48:12
screenshot those tiktoks carter um okay carter did you have anything else to add he's so gonna steal that
Corey
48:18
that whole thing for
Carter
48:19
for sure i actually just wrote it down he's
Annalise
48:20
he's gonna do it with his yeah what's
Carter
48:24
what's amazing is i'm then
Annalise
48:25
then he's gonna claim it i'm not even doing a campaign
Carter
48:26
campaign right now and i just wrote it down this
Annalise
48:32
uh okay carter any last like
Carter
48:35
like any last words holy shit what's
Corey
48:40
is your last episode
Annalise
48:44
go run that campaign you're taking eight years
Carter
48:46
years not right now you're looking for a new
Carter
48:49
new job it's over okay
Annalise
48:52
okay lightning rounds we're gonna move into the lightning round uh first question our our ucp mla drew barnes our pal drew barnes he's not seeking re-election as an independent he announced monday it's it's too bad You guys had high hopes for Drew Barnes.
Carter
49:07
Barnes. There goes our 43-43 with Drew Barnes as the speaker prediction.
Annalise
49:12
I'm so sad about that. You had high hopes. We were excited about
Annalise
49:16
So, Carter, I'll start with you on this one. If, you know, let's say Barnes was just super on the fence and he called you and he's like, what should I do? What
Annalise
49:25
What would your pitch to Barnes have been? I
Carter
49:29
I mean, am I being honest or am I stirring the shit? I
Annalise
49:33
I don't know. It's your podcast. I'm going to,
Carter
49:35
going to be honest. And
Carter
49:36
what I would say to him is it's time to go.
Carter
49:38
You know, um, the camp politics right now is, is, is not where you want it to be. You're, you're not winning anything. Uh, if you were to, um, you
Carter
49:50
you know, jump into this and win, you're, you're still going to be on a team all by yourself. And, uh, while we may harbor this dream of,
Carter
50:00
if we may harbor this dream of you being the speaker, you know, in some sort of, or
Carter
50:05
or the balance of power in some sort of, you know, minority legislature, it's just not going to happen. Just it's time for you to go. It's time for you to move on.
Annalise
50:16
Okay, Corey, what would what would your pitch to Drew be?
Corey
50:21
Yeah, this is an election that's two big battleships. It's, it's not going to be the time for the Alberta party. It's certainly not going to be the time for the Alberta liberals to resurrect themselves, take themselves off the mat. And it's not the time for independents like Drew Barnes. And my honest advice to Drew Barnes, if he's looking for political success, is sit this one out.
Corey
50:41
Doesn't mean you never come back. You've done it before. You can come back. You know you can come back. This is not the moment. Because there are some worst case scenarios that are They're worse than losing, right? Like people blame you for the state of like a bad legislature or something like that. So, yeah, there's a lot you can do. You can go back
Corey
51:00
back to what was real estate. I think he did something like that. And you're
Carter
51:04
you're more invested in him than I am. I have no clue. I
Annalise
51:08
I don't know what he used to do. Go
Corey
51:10
Go back. Do your thing. If a moment sets itself upon you, then that's great. That's awesome. Find it. maybe you can be the first president of the independent alberta republic i don't know but uh but this is not the time this is not the right so
Annalise
51:26
so overall you both think he made the right the right choice oh yeah yeah
Corey
51:29
yeah i'm sad he made the right choice because i wanted him to make the
Corey
51:32
wrong choice but this was the right choice okay
Annalise
51:36
um lightning round smith's campaign launch yesterday the tax reduction and i it sounded like cory he wanted to to talk about this um Um, basically
Annalise
51:45
basically a new 8% tax bracket for those making less than $60,000.
Annalise
51:50
It'll carry a $1 billion price tag. I
Annalise
51:53
I don't know, reaction, good policy, bad policy, good time to announce it. Give me your, give
Annalise
51:58
give me your synopsis, Corey.
Corey
52:01
I'm not wild about the policy. I think it's smart politics. And I think it's the kind of thing that's, I'm surprised it didn't get bigger play, but i'm certainly positive that it will be used well at the doors saying like this is an example of how we're going to help you with affordability put money in your pockets speaks directly to affordability which is top issue right you asked us to list our three and i said affordability was number one for me last time and um and it also is like where would you know sorry but where was on this this is a policy the ndp should have constructed maybe with something that had like like a rise on the high end too, and, and really created a sense of contrast. Like, Hey,
Corey
52:43
we want you to be better off and they want, you know, they want to feather the nest of the people who are making the most money possible. Like, look, do you know how much money this saves somebody who makes $300,000 a year? I mean, I guess we do. It's the same for anyone on
Corey
52:57
certain point, but yeah, you can, you could easily do that. And so, um, I think it's, it's not a bad policy by the ucp i
Corey
53:05
i would say in general the
Corey
53:08
the ucp seems to be losing on style points right now like their event
Corey
53:11
was not as splashy but
Corey
53:13
but i think on substance this is this is what victories are made of you got to watch out for this kind of stuff because while the media gets distracted by it the media doesn't want to talk about it the media is disinterested it's
Corey
53:25
it's pretty appealing when you're on the doors you know when you're talking to voters who are saying well what's in it for me me frankly you
Corey
53:31
you got a pretty great answer for literally everybody making over
Corey
53:35
over yeah 24 000 a year or something like that yep
Carter
53:41
thoughts oh yeah this is the front cover of every brochure that goes out um you know this is this is the primary promise that people can understand oh what do i get boom i get to save money um i i i'm gonna put less money into to my taxes i'm for that uh i like that um is it good policy probably not i mean i think that there's an argument to be made that we just don't pay enough taxes in alberta i don't think it's going to be made that much during the actual campaign um but you know this is well so you don't think so i don't think so i don't i mean you know the alberta party used to roll it out every once in a while but you know here we are and uh but you know it's not good it's not a great policy but it's going to be a great winner i
Corey
54:25
don't know if i hate the policy as much as you do because i think it could actually be part of you know i will say i am surprised by how cheap it is you know like a billion dollars is not cheap but that's not that expensive for
Annalise
54:37
for for what for how many people it affects it's impacting basically everybody everybody
Carter
54:42
everybody who pays taxes is impacted by this policy and it is virtually nothing if you if you tag this if you were the ndp and you tag this with something like this could have been gold but you know here
Carter
54:56
here we are yeah
Corey
54:57
yeah well so if sixty thousand dollars if it's every dollar below that we know effectively reducing by one point costs half a billion dollars in some ways i'm surprised they didn't go farther
Corey
55:08
like saying We're cutting in half the tax rate from 10% to 5% on your first, well,
Corey
55:14
well, there you go. There you go, NDP. That's what you can do. And if you want to make up the money on the back end, go for it. But I guess you've already had your no tax raise.
Corey
55:24
do you do? Is
Annalise
55:24
Is this an announcement you would have expected from the UCP? Like you kind of alluded to it, Corey, that it's almost progressive. I'm just thinking if you had like a blind match of this policy, which party does it belong to? Would you have stuck this with the UCP?
Corey
55:39
yeah you know i was thinking about it when it was announced yesterday and my first thought was we for sure should have seen this coming right and it's a great reminder that we sort of think of these things almost in isolation like they're going to be doing this track they're going to be doing that track but this makes so much sense uh if you're the ucp because you want to show the dividends of your quote-unquote good management over the past four years right the way that you've return things to surplus and if you can say things were bad we took over we fixed things and as a result you all pay less tax that's that's quite a compelling story and i think we should have anticipated that big retail piece coming because
Corey
56:18
because they're not fools and and frankly knowing now that it only costs a billion dollars i would have thought more but i you
Corey
56:25
you know i don't have treasury board and finance running numbers for me then uh then
Corey
56:29
then yeah i mean like we we should Could have seen a swing like this coming. This particular one, I
Annalise
56:37
Carter, Carter. Okay, next. Good response. We need video of your face. If only
Carter
56:45
could have been predicted.
Annalise
56:49
Next question. Some arena polling came out yesterday. We talked on Sunday about how there might be arena polling this week. week um the headline here is basically that the arena deal is not a winner for the ucp in calgary um stephen carter who
Annalise
57:06
who is the arena deal a winner who
Carter
57:08
who is the deal uh murray edwards uh has come out uh fairly well on the arena deal and should be if he lived in alberta uh voting for the ucp but sadly he doesn't live here so his vote's not going to count but he's got to be happy happy um in terms of everybody else uh not so much but um but murray's gonna be pretty happy i think murray's gonna be happy cory
Annalise
57:33
cory who's it who's it who's it a winner for
Corey
57:37
so this is somewhat predicted like you asked us last episode you
Annalise
57:42
you predicted this yeah
Corey
57:43
yeah i said like it's
Annalise
57:44
it's gonna be like
Corey
57:44
like a mixed poll like it's
Annalise
57:45
it's not gonna be
Corey
57:46
be really clear and
Annalise
57:48
and you said it wouldn't make a difference i
Corey
57:52
this is the worst case scenario for danielle smith and let me explain why because she's essentially put
Corey
57:57
put out a bear trap and stepped in it herself and not realized that she was actually the target here their snap polling it
Corey
58:05
it was in the braid column they mentioned they had polling that showed how popular this would be right with no details because of course they couldn't poll on the details i'm
Corey
58:12
i'm aware as i've mentioned of snap polls that occurred that showed like 60-40 support for this thing the first night. The Think HQ poll was a bit different because it did put facts in front of people. So I do
Corey
58:24
do think we need to sort of say this is not a perfect apples to apples comparison here. But in some ways, it makes the case even more strongly, which is when people learn about this deal, they
Corey
58:35
they don't like it very much. And unfortunately, the only people who are talking about it in any kind of volume are the people who are furious about it you know the stephen carters of the world railing against the world you
Corey
58:46
and i feel like this is one of these classic issues that you pull you think it's high and then you get yourself in a situation and you realize that as the facts become known people loathe it and
Corey
58:59
and and that's um that's the worst case scenario because she's already come out full-throated support she's already made statements like if you want this vote for me and
Corey
59:06
and this might actually turn out like Like, right now, it's not a winner. It could end up a loser 26 days from now.
Annalise
59:13
to Carter's point about Bob in the campaign. If Bob comes to you and says, hey, I'm hearing nonstop at the doors, arena's a bad deal, we don't like it. Like, you can't backtrack
Annalise
59:23
backtrack out of it now. What do you tell Bob, Carter? What do you say to Bob? You say
Carter
59:27
say to Bob, well, we're about to change the channel, right?
Carter
59:30
right? We're going to change the channel, and here's what we're going to change the channel to. We're going to go to reducing taxes. Just remind everybody that we're reducing taxes. That that that should placate them. Right. Like this is something that we thought was necessary to to spur investment. But, you
Carter
59:45
you know, we also think low taxes are something that is necessary to spur investment. So you have both. You know, you just change the channel on on a negative story. Will it be effective to change the channel? Well, it could be.
Carter
59:59
But it's really all you got.
Corey
1:00:03
you just say bob we don't need everyone to love it we need the right people to love it there's a certain group of accessible voters that we are targeting with this and bob if you knew what i knew you'd
Corey
1:00:13
you'd be pretty thrilled with this arena deal and internally you continue to pretend like it's a big winner and
Corey
1:00:18
and you just shut up about it and you effectively do yeah if you
Carter
1:00:22
you knew what i knew
Annalise
1:00:23
does it hurt your yeah
Carter
1:00:25
yeah that's good messaging baby oh my say
Carter
1:00:28
say it again cory make me excited if you knew
Annalise
1:00:33
it does it hurt your does it hurt your case to have a city council that's like still releasing statements and stuff about this saying uh carter do you want to do you want to jump in there like they're still they're still coming it's been what a week and they're still statements saying hey i know you guys don't like this but click this link for the full details oh no i
Carter
1:00:53
i mean that was that was some communications there hey that was some communications john Giancarlo, you're my friend, so I won't pick on you. But my God, was that bad. Anyways, the point, what I love is that every councillor that's coming out and defending this deal is angry about the politicization of the issue by Daniel Smith. They're pissed that the government isn't in the deal. And they all say, trust us, it's a much better deal than we can tell you. And
Carter
1:01:24
And I'll tell you something, there is no such thing as a better deal than I can tell you. if i can't tell you about it it is not a good deal so you know this is it's getting worse it's getting worse for the ucp because uh council is talking about it and every time council opens their mouth it gets worse for the ucp which is amazing because they're trying to actually help but that's how good this this council is at politics everything they touch turns to shit okay
Corey
1:01:57
mean listen cory let's be real i am real
Corey
1:02:01
when you have a deal between a public body and a private corporation are
Corey
1:02:07
are the private clauses usually things that are to the benefit of the public
Corey
1:02:11
body no no the reason they're private is because people know they'll light their hair on fire if they had to be made public in any way shape or form like and then And they say commercial interest and a bunch of bullshit like that. But let's be fucking real. Secret clauses are not your friend if you're a taxpayer, if you're a citizen, okay?
Corey
1:02:29
All right. Let's start with that.
Annalise
1:02:31
Wow. Okay, Bob. Thanks, Bob. You got this, Bob. Jeez, Bob.
Corey
1:02:36
Second thing, what I find fascinating is kind
Corey
1:02:41
kind of you can feel the sweat in so many of the counselor's statements. Like the fact that they are on the back foot is so clear in so many of them. geez i wish i could defend myself better god i know you don't think it's a great deal but it's the best deal we could have gotten like the language is really betraying that they are getting their asses handed
Corey
1:03:00
them by people like certain counselors like i'd say like the five that we would consider the most progressive are
Corey
1:03:05
clearly really sweating about this particular vote and they probably should be based on the polling that i
Carter
1:03:09
i think they all are i don't think it's just the progressives oh
Carter
1:03:14
alive and can i
Corey
1:03:14
i tell you if
Corey
1:03:16
if i hear one more time this like it's It's clearly a good deal because all
Corey
1:03:20
15 of us voted for that. You
Corey
1:03:21
You know, that's one option. There is a second option here, okay?
Corey
1:03:31
think we all fucking know what the second option is. No, we
Carter
1:03:34
we don't. Say it out
Carter
1:03:35
Say it out loud.
Corey
1:03:39
That our 15 counselors got absolutely played is the polite way I'll say it. That is
Annalise
1:03:44
is a polite way of saying it. That's not what I expected you to
Annalise
1:03:47
to say. Oh, my God. I'm so disappointed by
Corey
1:03:48
i'm so disappointed is
Corey
1:03:50
is this the yeah say
Carter
1:03:51
it like you'd say it to bob
Corey
1:03:58
notion please the notion that 15 votes in favor is evidence that it's worth 15 votes in favor is
Corey
1:04:06
a tautology it's insane it doesn't mean anything you cannot tell me it's a good deal because 15 people voted for it and it's 15 people voted for it because it's a good deal the circular logic there is just do it's depressing okay it's depressing courtney penner please stop that particular talking
Annalise
1:04:23
do either of you have any insight i know this is lightning around but you know i could talk about arena and council all day do you have any insight into why it was 15 to 0 like
Annalise
1:04:33
what what happened behind the scenes that made it 50 to 0 i
Annalise
1:04:37
i know we talked about this last time but you have another week of info what
Annalise
1:04:41
what cory why was i 15 i
Corey
1:04:43
i suspect carter and i were going to to suspect the same suspicion here which is that they had a conversation of listen we really need to go out strong on this we need to be united on this let's settle it here and let's let's just all agree we're going to support this thing but they
Annalise
1:04:58
they never they never all agree they they never all agree and how did they not think it would get political i
Corey
1:05:03
i i don't when they sat with the premier like three seconds before an election i'm not clear on that okay
Corey
1:05:09
i guess that yeah
Corey
1:05:11
15 to 0 well
Annalise
1:05:13
mean yeah i that's that i still anything
Carter
1:05:14
anything that happens 15 to 0
Carter
1:05:18
mean that's that's a great afl score i mean that'd
Carter
1:05:21
that'd be pretty great here's what i think happened because my my my thing's a little bit different than cory's i think they got played by administration i
Carter
1:05:29
i think they got told a story by administration that this was a great deal and and for all the all the following reasons this was a great deal and no one because you know In civic politics, your primary source of information is the administration, and I don't think that they were told the stuff that they needed to know.
Annalise
1:05:48
So why was admin pushing for it? Because they just want to get moving because this has been on their desks for like a decade? Why was admin pushing for this?
Carter
1:05:56
this? $330 million in new money.
Carter
1:05:59
That's a great deal because
Annalise
1:06:00
because we got $330
Carter
1:06:01
$330 million in new money. And don't worry, I can find you that $556 million, Annalise. we're not going to have to increase taxes because admin has pockets of money everywhere that they don't tell anybody about it's
Carter
1:06:14
it's not like the provincial government you are
Corey
1:06:17
are so close to sounding like oscar feck it's not also
Carter
1:06:20
i'm not doing it i'm not doing it after the last many people
Annalise
1:06:23
people from admin listen to this not anymore annalise
Carter
1:06:27
annalise not anymore yeah i
Annalise
1:06:29
think i think you're going too far
Carter
1:06:31
trust me on this this
Carter
1:06:33
this is this is legit all
Carter
1:06:38
got all your episodes in under an hour and now this
Carter
1:06:42
this is getting long well
Annalise
1:06:43
well it's arena okay it's arena i got one last question last lightning round question elon
Annalise
1:06:50
your pal elon musk
Annalise
1:06:53
he's uh he's threatening thing to give the npr twitter account to
Annalise
1:06:58
to someone else like it could be another company it could be another person the lightning round question is if uh if elon musk were to do this with the strategist account if he were to come and give the account to someone else who who would you want to get the account interesting
Corey
1:07:18
well strategist pod maybe maybe there's like a pea farmer somewhere i think that could be nice um alternatively i guess i would want it to be like an office furniture company like you know how they have pods i think that's a really nice name for that
Corey
1:07:35
let's make it available okay
Annalise
1:07:37
carter who i mean this hits
Carter
1:07:38
hits really close to home after the whole chester hosts thing um kind of unfolded on us yeah
Corey
1:07:44
yeah it was a little
Carter
1:07:45
little bit rough i'm a little more raw about it than cory because cory didn't have to actually go and make a deposition position um but uh personally i would want it to go to west of center because they are our best advertisers that
Corey
1:08:03
was the right answer actually good
Annalise
1:08:06
good answer okay we're gonna leave it there that's a wrap on episode 1057 of the strategist my name is annalise clingbeil with you as always stephen carter and cory hogan