Transcript
Carter
0:02
Hang on, don't dim the lights yet.
Carter
0:07
I was looking for my wife and kid, but they left.
Zain
0:10
Sounds about right, Carter. I
Corey
0:12
I can tell you where. It was around slide 10, my friend.
Zain
0:17
They were so embarrassed by the typos and the poor Excel work. David
Corey
0:21
David Toledo ruined you.
Carter
0:24
Is this even my phone? Okay. Oh, my God.
SPEAKER_04
0:29
Okay. Okay. welcome back everyone we're gonna do some questions so Zane is that he's got a mic he's over there in the corner he's gonna rove around everywhere if you've got a question just flag him down and and you can ask it into the mic and I'll start with one well Zane finds good
Carter
0:47
good so we'll have some good questions and audience
SPEAKER_04
0:48
audience questions Zane's gonna find some questions yes I'm gonna try to find hands
SPEAKER_04
0:54
you've got a question put your hand up Zane will go to you great
Zain
0:57
great Great. I'll find you. So keep them up and
SPEAKER_04
1:01
First question, Rajan. Let's talk. Let's talk about both of you thought it was maybe an April Fool's Day joke yesterday. Yes.
Corey
1:09
Yes. Yeah. Well, that was on account of it being foolish. Yeah.
SPEAKER_04
1:14
What what what do you make of that? Can I tell
Corey
1:16
tell you? So she was originally running in Calgary Northeast. She announced she was not running. Yeah.
Corey
1:23
Right now she was going to lose because she was going. Okay, so it is a riding that is a lean NDP I believe in a snake kind of that gets put together by PJ Fournier that I was talking about Yeah, but
Corey
1:33
but Calgary Northwest is like just a couple of writings beyond that. It's like it's not a safe riding. Yeah
Corey
1:40
Barely better. So it's hard to kind of imagine what was going on there Like what what the logic was that what
SPEAKER_04
1:46
what about the strategy of like sending out a press release on April Fool's in the morning? of April Fool's and then not being available for comment. And it's a Saturday. Not super
Corey
1:55
super strong. Not super strong, Annalise. You wouldn't
Corey
2:00
I mean, I enjoyed the art of it, personally. I thought it was fun. But no, I mean, if your goal is to... Well,
Corey
2:06
Well, it's interesting. So what do we think her goal was? More people
Carter
2:09
people talking about her.
Corey
2:10
her. No, I think it was to slink back. We're talking about her right now. I think it was to very quietly slink back. Well,
Carter
2:14
that fucked up, didn't it? I mean, it was really bad. It really didn't make much sense. and it was you
Carter
2:23
know April Fool's is a bad time to do it obviously right okay
Carter
2:27
okay yeah but when's
Carter
2:30
when's a good time like
Carter
2:33
obviously she's not talking to media she's not gonna talk to she's gonna follow you know Cory's advice don't talk to media don't talk to anybody but
Carter
2:39
but then like why not announce it on the morning of the election like morning like there is absolutely no difference that Raj Rajansani is going to make in the time between now and May the 1st zero difference in the 30 days about April Nothing will change because she's a candidate. So
SPEAKER_04
2:54
So what why did you think she did it? I
Carter
2:57
I think they're just really stupid
Corey
3:02
Read I would say that I you have to assume it's because she she wasn't feeling it She thought she was going to lose Maybe she left her door open a little bit with the premier like, you know premier It's just not the time for me. Not right now, but I'm still your pal. I'm still your buddy
Corey
3:18
Sonya Savage steps down
Corey
3:20
Maybe now is the time The
Carter
3:22
The time differential between those two decisions wasn't that long like it was February to April 1st Like it's not like it was like eight months and it's like I've already regretting my decision. It was five weeks
Carter
3:37
Five weeks. Oh, no, I really have to be back working with Danielle again. Who's thought that?
Corey
3:44
but but you don't think i mean is it quitters remorse is it was it a certain amount of cowardice about calgary northeast i don't know i
Carter
3:52
bumped yourself up a probability of what six percent probability now instead of 50 50 it's now like 54
Carter
3:59
you know 46 i i don't know how this makes sense um
Carter
4:02
um from someone who may have been afraid to lose you're still gonna fucking lose well
Corey
4:08
well let me ask you this too like do we think that there was another candidate that the premier had in mind that they couldn't get you
Carter
4:14
still have four weeks to
Zain
4:24
through as many of these as I can so you've got a question right beside here
SPEAKER_00
4:28
here I'm just wondering if there's any courting going on of minor parties or does that even matter oh
Corey
4:35
oh I doubt I mean I think that the courting is essentially in a funny way, nagging, like, your party's irrelevant, so come join us, right? And the simple reality, and Stephen talked a bit about it on one of his slides, any poll that shows the Alberta Liberal Party at 6%, are they going to run in 6% of the ridings? That's not a realistic number. And I have to imagine that's the 6% of people who are perpetually confused and thought it was a federal liberal poll.
Corey
5:00
You can look at polling going back to the 70s, about 6% of Americans Americans say the moon landing has been faked for about 50 years like there's a six percent problem in polling because they're they don't have anywhere to go but the NDP um yeah I don't know that there's a lot of courting the Alberta party is an interesting one for me because you might have seen that their leader said he was not going to run in Brooks Medicine Hat and he was mayor of Brooks so I'm not sure where he's going to have a better shot I
Carter
5:28
like him in chestermere okay
Carter
5:32
mean they're not going to be relevant there was chances to be relevant for third parties in the past I mean the the Liberal Party the Alberta Liberal Party you know was a viable party for a very long time then I got my hands
Carter
5:46
hands and then Corey led it straight into the ground and but
Carter
5:50
you know parties come and they go and and right now it is a two-party race the reality is if you do not want the UCP to be the government then you only can choose the NDP and I'm not saying that as a strategist I'm saying that as a voter if you don't get and I think that don't want strategy is far greater than who do I want strategy what's
SPEAKER_04
6:11
what's the message then for and I saw even with Rajan's announcement the Alberta party candidate in that area saying well why am I not mentioned in these news stories and look at me like what what is your message for those people who are running for the Alberta party who are like hey this is not a two-party race pay attention to me I mean I
Corey
6:33
guess a combination of polls and common sense right but like let's be really frank there are only so many inches in a newspaper the media is under a lot of pressure it's difficult to cover a political party it was a lot of resources in 2012 when they had to cover so many right that's just not realistic and they're not gonna waste their time if there's not a lot of votes
Carter
6:56
or or they're meaningless we're not gonna cover you
Carter
6:59
well i mean there's a marijuana party too okay like the marijuana party's gonna run candidates do you think they deserve coverage no you
Corey
7:09
okay there was actually more enthusiasm for the marijuana party than the alberta party yeah they're so i don't know it's legal now guys I
Zain
7:17
I smell merger. I smell merger, Corey. I've got another question here. If I can also get you to say your name when you're asking a question as well.
SPEAKER_11
7:27
My name's Adrian. Thank you for the show so far. So every election at universities across the province, there is some sort of get-out-the-vote campaign of varying and often dubious impact. So this election season, I would argue, there's a lot of reason for university students to be pretty angry with the tuition increases over the last few years and cuts in funding kind of across the board. Do you think there's any room in the NDP strategy to try and get more student voters out to the polls, especially at, like, UFC, MRU, Lethbridge, and those more kind of competitive areas?
Corey
8:03
look, I mean, I already talked about the 08 campaign for Obama, the 15 campaign for Trudeau. The reality is change elections happen, and change is often driven by younger voters, right? right? Their enthusiasm is infectious and it feeds onto other voters, right? And I can think about actually the first Nenshi campaign, right? Are you really
Corey
8:24
really going to Nenshi me? I am actually going to Nenshi you. I think
Corey
8:27
I think I saw an ah-head here, so it's probably snuck out if he's smart. He probably left when
Corey
8:31
when he heard. But there was a situation where, you know, I was talking to my parents about who they were going to vote for over time, and at first they were looking at the candidates that were were they I don't know maybe it was Bob Hawksworth maybe it was one of the others in a certain point my mom just says yeah I'm gonna vote for Nancy all you young people are talking about Nancy basically and there is really something to that so listen does every young person vote no Stevens right voter turnout is low amongst the youth the ones that do show up they
Corey
9:01
they carry more than their vote they
Corey
9:03
carry more than they're going
Carter
9:04
going to vote NDP if they show up the numbers are are almost universal I mean you'll find the right the The little bitty baby Hitlers will all vote for the UCP, right?
Carter
9:19
was one. Stop it. I took commerce in university.
SPEAKER_04
9:27
I thought you were a theater. I
Carter
9:28
I did both. Theater
Carter
9:33
combination. Listen, there are easy votes to get and there are hard votes to get. and you can choose to go and get the easy votes or you can choose and go get the hard votes. I think you should go get the easy votes. And if you've got the easy votes, then God damn it, good on you. Go get those hard votes. That's so wrong. So here's
Corey
9:52
simple reality. Elections at the end of the day are about votes, but campaigns matter and the enthusiasm that young voters bring is very important. If you are a young voter in the audience and you are thinking, hmm my vote is the most important thing I can give in this election you are dead wrong don't get involved in a campaign go out there hit some doors get involved
Carter
10:19
if you're if you're a young voter in our audience and you're thinking am i normal
Zain
10:33
I thought I would have to do the hard work of transitioning from baby Hitler so thank you for your
Zain
10:39
your impassioned plea of democratic engagement i've got a question here
SPEAKER_01
10:44
name is keith i'm a patreon so i was listening to your podcast and my question is this if danielle smith and ucp do win does
SPEAKER_01
10:54
does she remain leader is
SPEAKER_01
10:56
is there something that's going to happen because you talked about the time at which the
SPEAKER_01
11:02
the announcement came out about the
SPEAKER_01
11:07
you were talking about if it was a different time we
SPEAKER_01
11:10
we are where we are she gets elected how long is she leader okay
Corey
11:15
well there's two ways to think about that one is yeah you could just never drop a leader right now without running into serious challenges with your party you'll you'll forgive a lot of your leader at this particular moment and you might tell yourself at that time if you're in the ucp caucus and not very happy we'll deal with this after the election
Corey
11:33
that's one way and i think that's actually how based on some chatter i've heard a lot of ucp people are thinking the
Corey
11:39
the second way is the right way though and here's the reality she wins an election she's not going anywhere like she will have remade the ucp she already controls the board the candidates will become mlas the mlas will become her foot soldiers and you're not getting rid of her okay
Corey
11:55
okay she's not going anywhere and so is it possible she will go down to some sort of palace coup i mean if you're a conservative premier in this province 100 possibility
Corey
12:08
we all get that 100
Corey
12:12
it will be on something new and something newly disastrous or something newly revealed yeah
Carter
12:20
i heard months ago that they were going to let her win the election and then they were going to take her out but in order to take somebody out you have to have an actual process in order to do that and
Carter
12:29
so when when redford was taken out she didn't control the board she didn't control the the fundamental structure of the party she
Carter
12:36
she had the mlas for a while and then she started to lose the mlas and and now you're losing the mlas and you're losing the board now
Carter
12:44
now it looks like you're probably going to crumble danielle smith were more importantly take back Alberta has solidified the board they have the board they're taking over the riding associations they're going to have the riding associations they are putting forward the candidates we're seeing the the the candidates that would have been considered moderates the people that would have been considered PC stepping down or likely to be defeated it
Carter
13:07
it will not be the party that can dispose of Danielle Smith it will be the party that wants Danielle Smith and And I think that that's one of the things that's missing in this election is what's the party gonna look like after?
Carter
13:20
And it's gonna look crazier. It's gonna look more Wild Rose than ever before.
SPEAKER_04
13:26
got another one, Zane?
Zain
13:27
Yeah, I've got one up here.
SPEAKER_03
13:31
if you have, or
SPEAKER_03
13:32
or sorry, out of this election,
SPEAKER_03
13:34
whoever loses this election,
SPEAKER_03
13:40
or do they have another shot? or
SPEAKER_03
13:42
or are they going to be replaced by someone willing to fill the vacuum I
Corey
13:48
think Rachel Notley could probably get another shot does she want one I don't know I mean I know she's committed to service and it's possible certainly there's a lot of question marks as to what comes next for the NDP even bigger question marks what comes next for the UCP given everything we have just talked about here I don't believe for a minute Danielle Smith gets another shot though if she loses the election.
Carter
14:13
Neither of them get a shot. And it won't necessarily be because Rachel's deposed. It will be because Rachel decides not to run. I mean, she
Carter
14:20
she took the leadership in, what, 2010, 2011?
Carter
14:26
No, because 2012 was the election. Yeah,
Corey
14:28
Yeah, she wasn't a leader in 2012.
Corey
14:32
Yeah, Mason was. Really? Carter,
Carter
14:36
literally everyone is correcting you.
Carter
14:40
I'm going to be honest with you. The NDP weren't really a focal point.
Zain
14:46
Good. I'll give the mic to this gentleman right here.
SPEAKER_05
14:52
Hello, my name is Rob. I was wondering, do you think that the NDP is and will continue to behave too much like an opposition and not enough like a government in waiting between now and the election? And if so, why will they do that despite the fact that the majority of their incumbents, some of whom are former cabinet ministers, are probably more than intelligent enough to know that that is a bad idea.
Corey
15:18
No, listen, you know, it's...
Corey
15:24
Stephen, it's an audio medium.
Zain
15:27
Every live show he does this. Remember last time? Same
Corey
15:32
Look, I think the nature of a program like ours is it's designed to critique right we sit and we talk about what we think people could be doing more optimally we have the benefit of not having to deal with back pressure from a caucus back pressure from supporters donors all of that does the NDP act more oppositionally than I think is optimal yeah
Corey
15:52
a lot of the time I do but let's be super frank I don't have a fucking clue who's lighting up Rachel Notley's phone and what those challenges might be and you know what a good solution to that is if you don't like the the strategy that that the party you support is pulling forward, get
Corey
16:08
get involved. You know, nobody is stopping you from talking to your neighbors and providing them a different communications track than their particular party is providing, right? You think the NDP should be talking more about healthcare, less about the economy? Go fucking talk about healthcare. Who's stopping you? And so get involved. This is an important election. And the last thing I would want anybody to leave this theater thinking,
Corey
16:34
is, is that, listen
Corey
16:49
this one matters. You're a conservative, this one matters. You're a New Democrat, this one matters. Get involved. That's it. For
SPEAKER_04
16:57
For those at home, Corey's standing And I
Corey
17:00
I was standing on a soapbox, literally, which
Corey
17:02
which we also call the equalizer Steven's height.
Carter
17:10
because... Don't put words in my mouth.
Carter
17:14
because I'm better than Corey and I know that I should be listened to, but
Carter
17:18
but not everybody can book a theater and sell 400 tickets and
Carter
17:22
and give the MVP the strategy that you want them to execute. here.
Carter
17:27
But you could try.
Carter
17:29
No, I mean, Corey's right. Get involved.
Carter
17:33
One of the things, I was just chatting with my friend Holly up there.
Carter
17:38
This is about small things, okay? Sometimes elections feel like they're all about big things. Big things like we're going to do an air war, we're going to do, you know, campaign door knocking, all those types of things. It's actually about really small things. If you have a supporter, if you support one of the parties in this election, you need to have you need to have your book club over you need to go to your parent your kids soccer games you need to go to their hockey games you need to talk to all those parents in that area especially if you are a woman because we believe that women are gonna change the outcome of this election I believe that women are gonna change the election shouldn't speak for Cory apparently he likes the Nazis anyways what
Corey
18:17
what is what is happening I don't
Carter
18:19
don't know but I went that That was too far. Yeah,
Carter
18:23
much. I see that now. That was the line. That was the line. We found it. Baby Hitler was fine.
SPEAKER_04
18:28
It was right near the line. It was
Carter
18:31
was near the line. It was near the line. And then
Carter
18:33
over. It is a series
Corey
18:34
series of small things that we each do. Do you know what it is?
Corey
18:37
Hitler, when he was a baby, probably wasn't a Nazi yet. That's
Carter
18:39
That's probably what it is. Yeah, you're right. That's the difference.
Carter
18:43
We need to go out one-to-one, small groups, and change people's minds one at a time. Because that's how this idea of us being conservative has been ingrained upon us we all believe that we're conservative because of the nature of the networks that we have if we're gonna undo that if you're gonna start talking about progressivism
Carter
19:01
For me as progressive a conservative or
Carter
19:04
or for you know others who are more progressive progressive you need to start changing that one person at a time and
Carter
19:11
When someone says I'm gonna vote for Danielle in the next election. You need to then actually question them why what is the reason what's the rationale explain it to me and I'm gonna explain to you why I'm not and ideally you win that discussion you bring over one more person it's not an argument it's
Carter
19:28
it's a discussion one
Carter
19:30
one final point do
Corey
19:32
do they act oppositional they are the opposition give them a chance see what happens this election get involved try to drag them the way you want that's my advice to you we're
Carter
19:42
we're still doing this show yeah
Carter
19:44
yeah I guess I've
Zain
19:45
a question right here yeah my
SPEAKER_06
19:48
my name is Curtis this one's more of a meta question what impact do you think AI is gonna have on political strategy over the next decade oh
Corey
19:57
well don't get me this is like my obsession right now for those who know me it's gonna change everything it's gonna change everything to the practitioner context right we're gonna use these tools to create campaign like well you could do that now which at GPT and GPT for in particular so yeah I mean it's going to do that and by the way if you use chat gpt or gpt4 it never forgets what your key message is it never forgets what your audience considerations are it doesn't get confused and so i will i will imagine this campaign you're going to start seeing people using those tools at the very least as a check and saying like okay wait we forgot to mention this and this audience cares about that the
Corey
20:35
the other thing don't
Corey
20:36
don't want to be a downer here but when you look at what gpt has has done in areas like web development, programming, the efficiency gains it's allowed, you hear about all these layoffs in tech,
Corey
20:47
they're not just happening because market's down, okay? They're happening because a developer can be twice as productive as they could one year ago because in June of last year, something called Copilot was released by GitHub, owned by Microsoft, which allows them to develop code using AI that much faster. There are going to be massive societal impacts to that kind of job production and that kind of productivity gain 50% let me tell you the steam engine was 25% this is literally bigger than the Industrial Revolution in terms of production output for white-collar jobs like writing coding accounting and that's gonna change everything you want to see social turmoil strap in it's coming which
Corey
21:29
which is why you monetize
Carter
21:35
A.I. I mean there's also the nefarious use of A.I. You could make
Carter
21:39
make like Rachel Notley say something. Rachel Notley. That took less than four minutes to download a speech that she'd uploaded to YouTube, put it into one of the A.I. generators and have her voice both of those. And I've still got lots more voicing to do. in fact the
Carter
21:58
next podcast we are going to go with an AI host so cost
Corey
22:04
-cutting AI productivity you understand got
Zain
22:08
a question down here then I'll go up this aisle so if you got a question right after here I'll ask for hands in a moment so
SPEAKER_08
22:14
so I'm pretty sure there's a general rule in debating that if you say the word Nazi you lose yeah and I
SPEAKER_08
22:20
I think that's gonna trans McGrife into saying Trump but I'm gonna go there because I just think there's so many parallels between what happened during the four years of Trump and what's happening right now with the certain premier with recurrent huge errors and that seemed to be just forgiven like to the point of you know almost almost like breaking the law right so so can you just speak to can we learn from the
SPEAKER_08
22:51
the inability to deal with the four years of Trump and our seemingly inability to deal with conservatism and and Danielle Smith yeah
Corey
23:01
yeah you go first I got thoughts Trump's
Carter
23:03
Trump's always hard because
Carter
23:05
Trump's not logical right but Trump's not not you
Carter
23:10
know it's not Trump's not the end of a conversation that you expect right you expect it to you expected it to go more sequentially and all of a sudden we we jump from one place to a completely batshit place.
Carter
23:22
you're kind of going, well, how the heck do we do that?
Carter
23:26
the problem is that we are surrounded by so much misinformation.
Carter
23:29
misinformation. We're surrounded by wanting to believe certain things, wanting to believe that we've been put upon.
Carter
23:35
One of the reasons we see the rise of Trump is because of the
Carter
23:39
the change in the way that people, a very specific set of people, Generally speaking, white, non
Carter
23:45
non-college level educated people in
Carter
23:48
in very specific states were responding to their own circumstances. They were feeling put upon.
Carter
23:57
They were feeling like they'd lost their manufacturing jobs, they'd lost their opportunities, they weren't being heard, another class was being put in over top of them.
Carter
24:07
a degree they weren't wrong.
Carter
24:10
To Corey's earlier point about AI, it's
Carter
24:13
it's going to be way worse.
Carter
24:16
So if we're going to counter
Carter
24:20
this, then we can't allow that group to be disadvantaged. We can't allow a group of people to be left behind. We have a social services sector that's a complete disaster right now. now. We have a mental health sector that's completely destroyed. You can't have that and have these societal changes like the internet changing the way we get information. You can't have those two things happen simultaneously and expect sanity as an outcome. So
Carter
24:48
So if we're going to see even more changes, we've been relatively, relatively immune
Carter
24:57
to it in Canada, but
Carter
24:59
that's highly likely to change in the next 10 years.
Corey
25:02
Yeah, you know, it's a tricky one because I often try to take the broader historical view of it, and we're actually kind of closer to what democracy looked like 100 years ago, frankly. We lived in this very weird bubble, those of us who grew up in the 90s and even the early 2000s. Or
Corey
25:20
1860s were like that too, right?
Corey
25:24
Yeah, I mean, so there's that, that, but there are some things that did not exist 100 years ago that exacerbate the situation. Number one is social media, right? At least you'd have to go get one of the 40 papers that there were in New York at the time that supported your point of view 100 years ago, right? Now it's ping, it's on your phone, ping, it's on your phone, ping, it's on your phone. And there's just no hiding from it. And it's creating like this cesspool of information of wildly varying authenticity we don't talk a lot about why we call it viral media but there's an element of morality that I'd ask you all to think about the viruses mutate the
Corey
26:03
the truth can only be as interesting as the truth and the truth will only go so far as the truth is interesting a
Corey
26:10
a lie can be as interesting as you want as outrageous as you want as provocative as you want and if somebody takes it and mutates it and changes it that virality pushes it further we don't have a lot of antibodies for that right now so there's bigger societal work that needs to happen that people get better at discerning the bullshit from the reality and it's gonna get a lot worse before it gets better but step one is just even your own side the people you support the people you trust stop don't retweet it until you think about it look at it check to see its veracity because
Corey
26:42
because listen we all do it right now and any of us who grew up in
Corey
26:46
in the past 150
Corey
26:49
know we're we don't have kind of the antibodies for this so we've got to remind ourselves constantly take
Corey
26:55
take our vitamins live healthy lives
Corey
26:59
you're not gonna ask
Carter
27:00
ask us any questions
Carter
27:04
and audience questions so
SPEAKER_07
27:10
Jason Kenny Oh, God, it's Dwayne.
SPEAKER_07
27:16
My name is Dwayne.
SPEAKER_07
27:27
I'm getting puberty. So Jason Kenney was Premier for three and a half years, and yet tonight I believe I'm the first person to mention his name out loud. Sure.
SPEAKER_07
27:36
your strategist hat on, how does the UCP deal with the legacy of Jason Kenney and how does the NDP deal with the legacy of Jason Kenney so
Corey
27:49
first of all I guess this really proves Jason Kenney was a pretty good strategist because he kept his name out of everybody's mouth the last bit right but the
Corey
27:58
the the NDP will be very tempted to look at the the Jason Kenney legacy the problem is it just doesn't matter very much anymore a page has been turned you're much better off looking at the the ministers. And so I think in many ways that would be wasted effort by the NDP. Similarly, the UCP has no incentive to talk about Jason Kenney because he was the last guy. So we've got a funny thing where, I
Corey
28:19
I don't know, like it seems like either side bringing it up would be somewhat destructive for different reasons. For the UCP, it would be kind of poking at their internal tensions. For the NDP,
Corey
28:28
it would be, you know, it just wouldn't have any value. It would have no nutritional value. And so it probably wouldn't move the goalposts. And if you're the NDP keeping in mind what we talked about you got some work to do this you're in this election but you are you are a little behind the other guys so you can't waste time talking about things that don't matter um and
Corey
28:46
and that feels wrong to me because how can it be bad for both people but I feel like it's bad for both people yeah
Carter
28:53
immediately when someone leaves we change the way that we remember them so
Carter
28:57
so you know very it's very hard to change your opinion about someone until such time as the circumstances fundamentally change and that happens when someone resigns Corey makes a point very often that we now remember George W Bush in a very fond life we did not remember him in a fond light when he was you know the the war criminal you
Carter
29:15
you know crushing all these regimes that that is a change that happens when people leave office we miss remember followed by Donald Trump I mean that that really helps but we
Carter
29:27
we change the way that we remember people and right Right now I think there's, especially in that reluctant UCP voter box that I was emphasizing for the NDP, there are a lot of people that would take Jason Kenney back and
Carter
29:38
and you do not want them thinking, you know what, maybe Danielle will be gone soon and we can get someone like Jason back and the only way we're going to do that is by putting them back in office. So I'd be very reluctant if I was the NDP, I
Carter
29:51
I would bring up everything that he did but I would attribute it to the UCP and make it about UCP and Danielle Smith.
Zain
29:58
Hey, Annalise, I want to try something. I've got a lot of hands. Can we try to do four questions, eight minutes, rapid fire? I'll take all the questions at once if you want to write them down, and then these guys can try to hit. No, no,
Zain
30:09
Yeah, just do it. Just do it. You're just going to do it. You're going to fucking do it.
SPEAKER_11
30:14
My name is Ryland. I'm wondering what tactics you would focus on, assuming you've agreed on strategy. Perhaps you have some specific staffers you want to name for each region.
Zain
30:24
There's a question about tactics and its focus. I saw Linda's hand up Linda you want to yell your question at me and I can repeat it
Zain
30:32
Leaders debates we got tactics who got leaders debates. Okay. What okay? I've got a hand up here. She's
SPEAKER_11
30:40
So post you have the election it's 44 43 you
SPEAKER_11
30:44
you have to lose a speaker
Zain
30:48
does this legislature function and how does the winning party govern differently are we gonna be back here in a year
Zain
30:56
Hypothetical question about a very close race. I'm looking for one more hand.
Zain
31:01
Oh, right here, yes.
Zain
31:04
Lay it on me for
Zain
31:06
for our final question.
SPEAKER_02
31:07
Hi, I'm Michelle. I work in a classroom. There is so much pain in our public schools. These kids are hurting. There's new curriculum. Do you know how many schools you could build for 80 million dollars? What
SPEAKER_02
31:23
What would help our children more, Tylenol or a few new public schools? Or how about some EAs? Or how about some lunch support? Or how about a few more teachers? How about those things? That's what we need.
Zain
31:37
You do. We got three questions. Okay, here we go.
Zain
31:40
We got three questions and an impassioned plea
Zain
31:42
plea for public education, which I'm definitely on board with. Okay, we'll get with the tactics question.
Carter
31:49
we do the public education one first? Do you want to respond to it? Yeah, because I'm for it, and I know that Corey's not, I've got kids
Carter
31:56
kids in public school
Carter
31:58
That's funny though. Yeah, that's true. Okay. All right. Thank you. Michelle.
Carter
32:02
Over to you, Annalise. Tactics.
SPEAKER_04
32:03
Tactics. First question. Rapid fire. Tactics
Carter
32:05
Tactics for me. Tactics question
SPEAKER_04
32:06
question from the front row.
Carter
32:07
row. It's all about small coffee parties for the NDP. I want to see so many opportunities for those candidates and campaigners to get into small groups and talk and bring people over one at a time.
Carter
32:20
Keeping in mind, these are very small ridings. most of the time when we are campaigning we're campaigning in a federal constituency which is huge or we're campaigning in a councillor race which is huge or we're campaigning for mayor huger this is the smallest electoral
Carter
32:39
grouping that we have in Canada and we need to really double down on finding those 4
Carter
32:45
4,000 people in 4,000 people isn't that many coffee parties when you start thinking about how many people you touch even in a group of four or five people it just cascades out so for me I'd build the entire campaign around that and I would put them into as many small events as humanly possible yeah
Corey
33:03
so for the for the UCP they don't have the same ground game challenges as we talked about there's the federal conservative infrastructure there's the PC infrastructure such as it was the wild rose infrastructure all these infrastructures that are there so for them the tactic is really how do you control the air war agenda i think they've got a different impetus here and so for them it's every every day announcing something that rolls up into a bigger message that rolls up into something about the economy that generally tells the story of alberta being back you know mourning in alberta as i put it but uh yeah like it's keep the opposition spinning keep the opposition as an opposition don't let the opposition start to tell their story that's the tactic that ucp needs Okay,
SPEAKER_04
33:43
Okay, next question leaders debates. Do they matter big
Corey
33:45
big-time huge? 2015 the entire election hinged on the leaders debate and it hinged on a moment in the leaders debate very early that was carried Throughout it when Jim Prentice turns to Rachel Notley Rather
Corey
33:57
Rather than Brian Jean and made Rachel Notley his opponent for that debate such an incredible tactical error Like people should write more books Dwayne write your next book about this was
Corey
34:07
was this was like a hinge in history moment that I cannot get over because the UCP, or at the time the PCs, were so convinced that Albertans would never vote for the NDP, they handed the election to the NDP. Before that leaders debate, almost, I think almost every poll, maybe one or two, had changed at the start of the week, but they'd all shown the wild rose in the lead, and afterwards they all showed the NDP in the lead.
Carter
34:33
I actually said that first.
Carter
34:39
That's like word for word from the podcast.
SPEAKER_04
34:43
Our last one of the night was that hypothetical 44-43. Yeah, boy.
SPEAKER_04
34:49
boy. And what does that mean? How does the legislature function? It's
Carter
34:53
It's okay, though, because we'll have Raj and Sonny.
SPEAKER_04
34:59
You go first on this one. Listen,
Carter
35:01
Listen, this is really tough. I mean a government usually chooses a speaker from their own side which brings things to a 43-43 It becomes difficult to to manage the votes I mean very rarely do you have the full house in the legislature generally speaking Corey and I have discussed this before I'm putting I'm stealing his lines because he just stole mine But very rarely do you have everybody there and it's usually an agreement between the two house leaders to have the proportion in the house so the voting proportion stays relatively constant well when it's equal it just promotes fucking around right
Carter
35:39
right all of a sudden the NDP or you know if the NDP is in opposition they flood the zone without
Carter
35:44
without telling them and they vote down something now all of a sudden we've got you
Carter
35:48
you know constitutional crisis the
Carter
35:51
the other thing to do would be to choose the speaker from the opposition ranks very you'd
Carter
35:58
you'd almost need like I could see a a UCP a
Carter
36:01
a moderate from the UCP who happens to get elected who wants to resurrect their career as a moderate Tyler Shandro gets elected in Acadia and Tyler Shandro wants to be remembered not as the guy yelling you know on someone's driveway but as you know as the next year Yeah.
Zain
36:25
That's good. You held strong until the final question, Carter. That's
Corey
36:29
what Stephen says is right. We've
Corey
36:32
We've got a bit of an example from British Columbia that can remind us all of what the constitutional rules at play are here, but that's tough. It's tough to run a government. There's two things to keep in mind, though. One is there's the legislature and there's the passing of legislation, and that becomes almost impossible in a 44-43 split if the government does the speaker, because then every vote's 43-43, the speaker by convention is supposed to vote to maintain the status quo. Doesn't drop confidence, but means you're not passing a lot of things.
Corey
37:01
The government, though, is still the government. And so the 44 side still can do all of the regulations they want. They can still manage the machinery of government to their advantage. And a lot of government happens through regs. And I think you would see more government happen through regs in that particular situation. But also it empowers every individual MLA Like
Corey
37:20
Like like crazy like you would have horse trading like we see in the United States. You want my vote? I want a rec center in my riding. You want my vote? I want to be in cabinet and things would get crazy in a hurry and it would be very unstable And I do think we'd be back to an election in like a year because even if the government was surviving They would say this sucks and I want a majority and they would go look for it
SPEAKER_04
37:45
okay that's those are our questions that's
Corey
37:48
that's a wrap now you say that's a wrap that's that
SPEAKER_04
37:50
that what that's a wrap on episode 1047 of the strategist thank you everyone for coming tonight